The race to creating a Covid-19 vaccine is heating up. Various players are getting involved and there have been some big announcements. Many people, myself included, were excited for Moderna's Earnings Report. Moderna stock beat expectation's, but their day was ruined by Novavax and J&J. In this video, I breakdown everything you need to know related to vaccine creation. Enjoy!
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RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Performance results are hypothetical and all trades are simulated. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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The race to create a vaccine for the coronavirus is heating. Up recently, there were some big announcements that will impact the companies in the running and, of course, their stock prices. What's going on my pandemic pals, i hope you're having a great day. My name is matt and in this video i will be breaking down the latest news from the potential vaccine creators, moderna, novovax and j.
If you're interested in these type of stock updates join the party by hitting the subscribe button. Don't forget to turn on your notifications. So you don't miss any of the new videos. Alrighty then, let's hop into it here is a heat map for the reported, coveted cases.
As you can see, the northeast florida, texas and california have all been hit pretty hard within the u.s there's just under 5 million cases and roughly 160 thousand deaths. Unfortunately, it's predicted that within the month of august, the number of confirmed cases will easily surpass 5 million on a global scale. There's been over 18.5 million cases and over 700 000 deaths. This morbid fact means that we have a high demand for the vaccine and whichever company creates it first will not only be doing the world good, but will most likely make boatloads of money.
This brings us to the current vaccine creation leader, moderna moderna just announced that it's on track to finish the enrollment for a phase 3 study of its vaccine by the end of september 2020., there's obviously a lot of support behind moderna because they have received funds from The united states under operation warp speed, and they have also received over 400 million dollars of customer deposits for a potential supply of its vaccine. Many analysts, investors and concerned citizens were interested in an update from the company. During its earnings report on the morning of august, 5th moderna was able to beat both top and bottom line wall street expectations. The company was able to post a loss that was smaller than expected and the revenue beat forecasts.
This is definitely positive news. So it's fair to wonder why is modernist stock down over three percent on the day? The answer has nothing to do with its earnings report. The stock dropped today because of announcements from two of its competitors: novovax and j novovax released phase one data from 131 volunteers, showing that, after two doses of their vaccine participants developed neutralizing antibodies at levels more than four times higher on average than the antibodies developed by People who had recovered from coven 19., i don't have a fancy college degree and i didn't do the best in high school biology, but i thought it was weird that everyone's getting excited about their phase. One results when modern is already on phase three, even though it has been taking them longer to develop relative to other companies.
The novovax vaccine appears to be of higher quality analysts and people with fancy letters after their name describe the immune response to this potential vaccine. As best in class, in other words, novavax might not be first, but there is potential that they could be the best. Obviously, the increased competition turns up the pressure on moderna, but the story doesn't end there. J had their own announcement j j reached a deal with the u.s government for 100 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine for one billion dollars. I absolutely love how both of these announcements came out right before modernist earnings report sure it might be coincidental, but it's more fun to think that they're playing a psychological game of chess anyway, johnson and johnson announced that it will develop and deliver 100 million doses of Its coronavirus vaccine for the us giving the country the option to order an additional 200 million doses. The deal totals more than 1 billion dollars. The doses will be provided to americans at no cost if they're used in a covin-19 vaccine campaign. Although healthcare professionals could charge for the cost of administering the vaccine, so that's cool and all, but why would it drive modernist stock price down? The answer is pricing.
Each dose of j j's vaccine would cost roughly 10. Moderna is pricing its vaccine between 32 and 37 per dose, in other words, moderna is looking to charge more than the 10 from j j and the twenty dollars from pfizer. To put it simply, modernity is under pressure to lower its prices, which would eventually hurt its revenue and net income. Modernist financial statements highlight why they really don't want to do that from 2016.
Until now, the revenue has been steadily declining in that same time frame, the gross profit has been a loss that is getting larger and larger. To sum it all up, moderna has been operating at a loss that is continuing to gain size. It's clearly in moderna's best business interest to price the vaccine in such a way that they can fix these numbers. To give you a better idea of how these numbers look in a relative sense.
Here's the income statement for nova vacs, their revenue has also been trending downward and their gross profit is also a loss. Overall, novovax is operating at a loss, but it's not as big as modernis on the other. End of the spectrum is j j. This goliath of a company has been growing both its total revenues and gross profit over the past five years.
Let's check out its net income. I don't know what happened in 2017, but besides that, the net income has been pretty consistent, even though it hasn't been growing. It's at least positive something that moderna and novavax can't say now that you have a better idea about how these companies are situated and the announcements that cause modernist stock to drop, even though it beat earnings, let's do a technical breakdown of their charts, so we're better Prepared for what could happen in the short and medium term since moderna is the current vaccine leader. Let's start with them, the average wall street analyst rating is bullish with one being very bearish and five being very bullish. The rating is 4.13 out of 15 analyst ratings. 12 are either very bullish or bullish at the time i'm making this the stock is trading around 75 dollars and the average analyst price target is 92.5. Here is moderna's daily chart since the start of this year. The stock is up an incredible 301 percent based on the most recent close, the first two support levels i would personally be watching come at 66.5 and 55.8 if you're bullish on the company.
These would be great areas to create a long position, but if you're bearish, these are good areas to take your profits in terms of resistance, i would be watching the high for may at 87 and then the recent high at 95.2, if you're in the bull camp. I would recommend taking some of your profits off the table at these levels and, if you're in the bear camp, these would be good regions where you can initiate a short position. Next on the list is novavax which trades under nvax. Overall, analysts are bullish on the company, the average analyst rating is 3.66 out of 6 analyst.
Ratings 4 are either very bullish or bullish. The stock is trading around 173 dollars and the average analyst price target is just below 190.. Since the start of this year, novavax is up a truly unbelievable 4248. Today alone, the stock was up over 10 percent because of the success of its phase one trials since we are at all-time highs, the only resistance from a charting perspective would be today's high at 189.
The supports i would personally be watching would be at this gap. Fill of 160 and then this previous support of 124, if you're expecting a massive percentage downswing, you could then be paying attention to this additional gap fill at 81 in light of the company's recent success, i don't think their stock will be trading in this area anytime. Soon next up is j, j analysts are bullish and the average annual rating is 4.0 out of 21 analyst ratings 13 are either very bullish or bullish. The stock is currently trading just above 148 dollars and the average analyst price target is 163..
J j is a massive company that works on many things besides the coronavirus vaccine. Hence why the graph looks very different from the first two since the start of this year. The stock is up a mere 1.6 percent. If you're looking to create a long position in jnj, the first level i would be a buyer at would come around 144.
This support would then be followed by 140.5. If the bears pushed the stock below both of these levels, you could then watch 137.. In terms of resistance, i would first be paying attention to 150. This would then be followed by 153.6 and a final target for the bull camp would come at 157.
As a quick note, moderna, novovax and j j aren't the only players in the coven 19 game. If this is something that interests you, you should take the time to also research, astrazeneca, gsk and pfizer. If you made it this far in the video. I truly appreciate your support. If you want me to do more of an in-depth breakdown of any of the companies i just listed, let me know in a comment below my entire goal is to provide as much value to you as i possibly can. I think it would be downright awesome if we could all help each other to take our training accounts to the moon. If you enjoyed the video, let me know by hitting the like button: if you enjoy this type of content subscribe to the channel and don't forget to turn on your notifications, thanks for watching and until next time best of luck in the markets, you.
Hello Matt,
I like to ask you about NVAX can you tell us what the next move please and thank you.
Are you bullish in Novavax?
🤦♂️
You have to be a real-big moron, or at least have more money than sense, to invest in Moderna, particularly at this point. If you want to invest in Moderna, just wait until next week when it drops back down to 50-60$, but, just make sure you get your money in BEFORE their (fraudulent) results of their phase-3 trials. That'll be in a few months.
As you can guess, I'm pretty sure Moderna is fraudulent.
Why do I say this?
The founder of Moderna, Robert Langford, is apparently just a MAGNET for MEDICAL MIRACLES!
He has created two companies, Moderna and PixarBio, and both of them claim to have REVOLUTIONARY MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY! PixarBio was supposed to cure ALMOST ANYONE who was paralyzed! How can you NOT invest in that?! All the "trials" looked amazing!
Turns out, it was all bullshit & scams, and now a handful of their executives are in prison.
Moderna is following the exact same playbook as PixarBio did.
Medical miracles for investment? Check.
Trials look great! Check.
Announce results of trials, PUMP & DUMP, check.
MARK MY WORDS! Here's what's going to happen: Moderna, in a few months, is going to say "Phase 3 went great! Almost every subject had the anti-bodies!"
Then, the stock will FLY-UP, double, or possibly even TRIPLE.
After this, anywhere from a few days until a couple of weeks, they will come-out with a negative announcement. (But, only AFTER their CEO's SELL their shares.)
It'll be something along the lines of this, "Turns out, someone else has the patent for MRNA Vaccinations! We can't make this vaccine unless we get approval!"
Or, "There are apparent side-effects from this vaccination we didn't catch! We need to INVESTIGATE these claims, and it will hold-up our production of this vaccine! But, don't worry investors! We'll get to the bottom of this!"
Bottom line is this: I'm about 95% sure Moderna is a hype machine. It plays on swings from media and alleged results from trials.
Do NOT hold long on this stock unless you're suicidal.
Yo Matt what do you think about Nvax Er?
What about SRNE??
subscribed bro, authentic vibes from ya. keep up the good work my G
Great analysis. Thank you
Really well presented. I'm holding onto my Novavax I reduced my position to lock in a small profit (wished I'd waited until Phase one reports were released), now playing with free money though. Hopefully it will continue to go up.
Great analysis and information. I was just about to sell my MRNA shares. I guess I’ll hold on a little longer.
Good insight. Keep us posted
Good break down bro!
Enjoyed your video! Also like your speaking style!
Thank you!
I'm sorry about the choppy video at the start. The video file was corrupted — I did the best I could to recover it.