Stock Market Swings: Onward & Upward
Dumb Money w/ Matt Ep. 204
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Do so do mum, hello, hello, hello, team, team, team, team team? We are back at it again. Second trading day of the year, it is tuesday january 4th and boy. Oh boy, are there some attendees on the oven, but before we get into that, i i have to admit not having the best day the i guess. Maybe the day will be better.

Maybe i should just say not having the deaths best morning before we get into stocks and prices and everything happening in the overall global markets. I need a little bit of me time, so i want to take the second to i don't know um. So this morning i went to the gym i got up, but if i'm being honest, i skipped my first alarm, i have an alarm for five and i have an alarm for 5 15 and i was supposed to get up at five and like get my ass In gear, but that didn't happen, so i got up at 5 15 and i got to the gym so, let's, let's, let's pat, let's pad old matt on the back anyway for getting there, and i i got there and i crushed it - i i freaking crushed it. Um, you know i got so into it that i ended up doing 31 minutes.

I just said 31, even though i only want to do 30., i like to turn it off myself. Like i don't want to let a machine run, my life, the machine doesn't turn off. I turn the machine off. It doesn't turn itself off.

That's more of like my fight against big tech, but the issue here is, i didn't call it out at all on social media that i went to the gym. I didn't tweet about it. I didn't read it about it. I didn't instagram about it.

I didn't go. Live about it, no aspect of social media knew that i was at the gym. In fact, the only person that i would say like knew i went to the gym. Was this random girl doing yoga? Who looked at me like? I was probably the ugliest person she's ever seen, because i decided to not do anything with my hair and i just like i wasn't really physically ready for it.

I wore a shirt. That's like a medium in youth that i got back in college and it was light blue and then i had like these weird, like golden brown pants, so, like my colors were all off, so she looked at me like. I was a crazy person and i looked at her and i was like trust me. I know and that's yeah it's problematic to a certain point, but more importantly than that problem is there was just no proof.

I was there so like that really does beg the question of like. Did i even go to the gym, then i don't know just something that i'm really toying around with in my head and we could get more into it later on in the day. I just i needed to get that off my shoulders now because i've i've really been here, since i don't know 6 30. I think maybe 7 a.m so about a good 90 minutes and could i have prepared a better morning show.

Could i have done my research and learned something and shared it with all of you yeah i could have, but i've been so myopically focused on just the fact that the world doesn't know. I hit the stair stepper this morning. I don't know to each their own, but with all that being said, let's actually hop into some stonks right now, ooh a transition, a transition all right, so here's a quick little look. Uh i want to talk about ford.
Ford is actually really crushing it. This morning. The spy looks like we're opening to a new all-time high apple and tesla. We're looking good a little bit earlier on right about that time, that i was allegedly on the stair scepter, but taking a little bit of a break.

But once again we do have 25 minutes until that bell goes ding, ding ding. So within that 25 minutes let me get you prepared, green and green and green and green five out of five green, green, green, green, green. It looks like a green morning: hey stonks! Only go up, apparently it's the new rule, but one thing i wanted to bring to your attention that when i was coasting around on the interwebs this morning, uh there are various forms of these fear and greed indices uh, depending on what you do or don't want To account to, but overall it's just measuring out fear versus greed, and whenever i see these kind of things, i always think fading it, as in just doing the opposite is the best. So, for example, a month ago, everyone was extremely fearful.

Do you know how good you would have done in the past month if you had bought and now we're slowly getting over to more of a greed sector? So if this starts pushing extreme greed, it might be time to kind of take that wisdom of warren buffett of be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy. When others are fearful so yeah, we are kind of edging up here and if we get it to extreme greed might be time to lock in some of those ten days and maybe wait for this to come back down in a weird way. That also somewhat aligns with seasonality, so this is uh data from the past 20 years, related to the s p, 500. So the start of january, in the bottom left of your screen here, typically very, very bullish, and then we get a little bit of chop and then it goes down until about mid feb, very abrupt pop and then from that abrupt pop in feb.

All the way till pretty much the end of march, we have some bearishness. So i'm curious if this is what we're gon na see is if we're gon na see you pushing everything till about mid-jan and get extremely extremely greedy and when everyone's greedy, i wonder if that is maybe when the rub rug gets ripped. Also, could p potentially be aligning with discussions related to interest rate. Remember that's going to be, in my opinion, the big thing that has an impact on the overall market.

This calendar year is interest rate. How hawkish or delvish are we and then that's going to have impact on the u.s dollar? That's going to have an impact on the entire crypto sector, and also within all of that you always have to worry about oil. I was just once again when i was allegedly at the gym. I was watching some news and they were talking about how this year um.

There are certain pressures right now in opec, opec's meeting right now, um, allegedly the meeting already started and they're talking about a release i believe of about, like maybe 40 000 barrels, something like that that doesn't really matter um. What does matter is the fact that this year, we're expected to have like new heights in oil usage uh, potentially to the tune of like 9.5 million barrels a day. So once again, if there's high demand in low supply, oil goes higher and higher and higher. So, potentially, to call out for the overall markets, obviously oil, very, very important, and also that then potentially also relates to some political tensions and we're going to get into that in just a bit.
But speaking of seasonality. Um - and this does relate a little bit more to crypto, but speaking of interest rates and the dollar. Just you know, seasonally. We have a push until pretty much the end of march and, as that goes up typically you're not going to see the most strength in something such as bitcoin, but when the dollar starts to get hit, like maybe april may june july, could be an opportune time.

Remember: they're not necessarily going to be correlated in the most perfect inverse manner, but there's going to be some rhyme or reason to that. So if you're seeing the overall dollar getting crushed, it might be a good time to get into some crypto, speaking of which uh ethereum, perfect cup and handle i'll be covering that more in the crypto stream bitcoin having a little bit of life to it. Fortunately, it didn't make a new low, but it did go lower to around 45 000. So we'd love for this to push back and pump 48 matic not doing much to lana not doing much, but once again we will cover that all more in just a bit.

Let me close these out, just so, i know went over them. So that's a little bit of a higher view. Uh we have some announcements uh. I believe today we're going to cover this binding meeting with like the covid task team.

Uh opec has already started their meeting. We have some fomc stuff tomorrow there. There are some important developments, particularly this week, joe i'm just calling that out don't be surprised if out of nowhere, we have an announcement and there's some volatility. Actually, i believe one of the first announcements is coming out at 10 a.m today and we'll be getting into that dao s, p 500 set to rise one day after closing at records and that they are so one of the big pieces of news yesterday was the U.S got its first three trillion company company and i'm talking about apple.

So i have some little factoids for you to hit a one trillion. Dollar valuation apple took 42 years, and it finally hit it in 2018, fast forward, two years in 2020, and then it was able to hit 2 trillion and then from that moment fast forward only 17 months and it was able to hit 3 trillion. So my bet is basically on apple, hitting 4 trillion by like tomorrow. I don't know i'm no mathematician, i'm no finance major but or any of that really finance advisor.
But i feel like 42 years 2 years 17 months and like what, let's just give it 10 days and i think we could reasonably be calling out for truly um. You know it's kind of like whose line is it anyway? This money's made up and fake any like it doesn't matter. It's the points, don't matter the dollars, don't matter we're going to four trillion, i'm calling it out now i'll, be bold i'll, be bold. Yeah about give me 10 days 10 days.

I think it adds 33 to its market cap um. I i very much hope you got a piece of this i'll be going over my portfolio, my public portfolio, right before that market goes ding, ding ding, but i currently do have some apple calls and i'll give some uh details for that uh. So this first announcement that i was talking about at 10 a.m - eastern, so in about two hours from now, a little bit under the labor department is set to release its latest job openings and labor turnover survey. Jolts is expected to show 11.1 million job openings.

As of the end of november, so kind of starting in may and really picking up in june, we've seen this mass mass exodus from the job market pretty much in june. Up until recently, we've been seeing over 4 million people a month exiting the job market. So some crazy things going on there and i'm curious about what it is. In my mind, it's probably one or two and in reality, probably a combination of said two things number one.

I think there's a lot of people that, with inflation, they're working a job and then they do the math out on minimum wage, which is not or just they're like lower pay. That's not being like on the proper pace, with inflation, everything and, at a certain point they're just like well, my working is literally a net loss, so i'd rather go try something else anyway, and then, on top of that, i think there's, maybe something psychological going on That, in a certain sense, maybe people are just like they're looking for this new change, we've all been cooped up for like two years and they're like i just need change. They need to do something else to kind of like mark the end of this insane global isolation that we've been having going on. So i think there might be a psychology play in there like why many so many people are like finally looking to get out of their job, but a lot of this does relate to rona us reports over one million new daily coveted cases, as unicorns surge, crazy, Crazy crazy, so i have some other factoids for you.

Hospitalizations in the u.s once again went over a hundred thousand, obviously not good um. This is not an all-time high, but it is a relative high, hopefully we're running into resistance, and it doesn't actually exceed that. So a lot of the metrics are sky high, very, very high, but one metrics that is very, very low. Fortunately, is mortality, that's a good thing, but also out of that hundred thousand.
Just so you know just south of four thousand so about four percent. Now actually relates to adolescence. Kids, children uh with hospitalization, which we really quite haven't, seen that before president joe biden on tuesday is scheduled to meet with the white house rona response team as the highly infectious unicorn variant sweeps the nation. This seven-day average is clearing over 400k.

Yesterday we had over a million this thing it's ripping through right now, and i guess rightfully so. People are concerned about the backlog and bottleneck issues related to hospitals but uh. I guess maybe i'm just trying to be a little bit optimistic here. Fortunately, mortality is very, very very low, so i'm just trying to focus on the positives, but obviously this is something that's important to pay attention to, because it can clearly have an impact on the market, particularly sectors such as air travel, airlines, crews, all those leisure activities.

Those types of things important to pay attention to also speaking of airlines they've been having a lot of cancellations. Yet airlines went up yesterday kind of weird little mismatch. There fda expands pfizer booster eligibility to kids 12 to 15., so the fda approved it. The cdc is expected to come with their follow-up commentary later this week.

Biden disapproval hits new hot. Well, i have more information for you on that biden. Disapproval hits new high as voters give him bad grades on economy. So that's kind of interesting because, typically in schooling, when you get a bad grade, you get a bad grade, it usually doesn't have an impact on a country's economy, a global economy and all the people that are dependent on said economy, so uh a bad grade.

I think is kind of understating the impact of this president, joe biden's overall disapproval rating reached a new high in december as more voters signaled their unhappiness with his handling of the economy and the rona pandemic results from a cnbc change. Research poll show 60 of respondents said they disapprove of biden's handling of the economy. As he nears the conclusion of his first year in office, a 55 majority of survey respondents also signaled disapprovement of his leadership during the pandemic and area in which he previously excelled. So um, i guess, whoever they were polling here there, you're kind of already.

I guess at a certain point. You could argue, you saw a high water mark and people are really starting to express their unhappiness, but the political developments today don't really start there. Stop there schumer threatens to change senate filibuster rules by jan 17th if republicans keep blocking voting rights legislation. So once again, it's a little bit of a different twist on the same old story of political gridlock, time and time again and then.
Finally, this one, actually not political, really at all jury, finds theranos founder guilty on multiple charges. So i know i've talked about this like just a little bit doesn't have the biggest impact on the market, but this truly is an insane story. There's various documentaries, many documentaries out there about theranose and what happened? If you have the time this week this weekend, i highly recommend watching one of them because it shows just so much like. I guess the world of investments of vcs of persona of um, weird psychological things of people doing their best to save a failing business like all of it.

It's such a crazy, crazy story and unfortunately, it had a very, very sad ending elizabeth holmes found guilty on four counts, so she was charged with 11 different things. Four counts. She was found guilty, mainly uh wire fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, uh four. She was found not guilty, and that was more of defrauding, just other types of fraud and then three of them.

The jury could not reach a verdict and the judge will most likely rule a mistrial on three of the 11 for not guilty for guilty out of the four that were guilty. They each can technically carry up to 20 years in prison. On top of that, she has to pay a quarter mil 250k plus um. What else does she have to pay there uh? Is it just reparations? It might just be reparations on that one um in the past certain cases such as bernie madoff, we have seen in these stacks so four times, 20 80.

uh. There is that's happened historically, but most legal commentary on this are saying that they're, probably not gon na stack these charges, in fact, she'll most likely not even serve 20 years, so a little bit of an update there. Obviously, i'm not a legal professional or anything like that, but it is an insane story and, like i said it's sad because people were defrauded and on top of that um if it was properly executed, it would have been so cool like what the company was pitching. Would have been revolutionary and i think that's why so many people were excited about it because they're like they, you almost wanted it to work.

It would have been a huge technological and medical advancement for mankind, but um, instead of being that it was complete and utter on more of a positive note. Well at least positive for elon musk. His wealth surged by 30 billion after tesla stock jumps on record. Fourth quarter deliveries.

You know some days. I just think about that. Like a one day, push 30 billion he's, like a small nation state in a one day, gain um crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy. So in the most recent quarter they beat deliveries to the tune of 40 000 and then on the year they beat to the tune of like just under that.

Like mid 30s uh, they delivered 960 000 on the year and it is rumored that we're going to be getting some sort of announcement later this week related to a gigafactory, whether that's in berlin or maybe they're, going to talk about austin or maybe something in china. Whatever it is, there are rumors and i just want to say that straight up, rumors rumors rumors that we're going to get some sort of additional development on gigafactory and with it, barring everything else, all other aspects of their business. One of the easiest ways to track tesla is really just to see their delivery numbers as long as they're going up and up and up, it seems like that's exactly what the stock's doing and you could even discount the other things which only make the situation better And better and better, if you want to know more about that, i highly recommend watching one of me kevin's most recent videos. He goes specifically into the numbers and his expectations and from his conservative estimate, he's basically calling out how he thinks tesla there's no way.
It's not gon na be trading at two thousand dollars by 2025 and once again, that's not his actual estimate. He's saying in like the most conservative of all cases, the numbers are pointing to like a minimum of that, but, honestly in the world of ev, it's not just our boy elon recently ford has been crushing it. I mean right here. Look at ford in pre-market.

Ford is up 3.7 3.8 after gaining 4.8. Yesterday, ford is crushing it uh ever since about what, at this point two years ago, its official pivot into the world of ev has been doing very, very well ford says it will double production of electric f-150 lightning to 150 000 trucks per year. So, there's not exactly a timeline on this particular one, but overall previously they were taking orders on this ev truck and the system was so inundated with trying people trying to buy it that they actually had to shut it down. So the demand for this e - i want to say eevee, but i guess we could call it an e.t.

This electric truck has been crushing it and they just reopened reservations, either this morning or yesterday, so we're seeing a lot. A lot of excitement in ford may be worthwhile to put on your list today, but the story of evie does not stop there. Mercedes says its electric concept has a 620 mile miles of range and seats made with mushrooms, and it was just basically talking about how um it it's a fancy, looking car. So once again, this is a concept um, and you can check this out.

If you want to find this on cnn business, i think it's a pretty sleek looking car mercedes previously has kind of teased. This fact that they're also really looking to take a more serious step into the world of evie. I just think it's a good looking car, so maybe maybe we'll see some big movement on this, but once again it's a concept. It's kind of cool that range is really really impressive if you're not too familiar with, like the average range um.

It's not the craziest thing to t here, two or three hundred miles. So the fact that they're coming out with 620 um, that's actually pretty pretty big development. Moving on to a non-eevee play at t and verizon agreed to postpone their 5g rollout near airports by two weeks, 18 t and verizon have agreed to postpone their planned rollouts of 5g infrastructure near airports by two weeks, averting for now feared widespread disruptions to air travel And shipping, as well as potential legal battle over the matter, so would not be surprised at all if at t and verizon are if their stocks are a little bit under pressure. I actually have a very quick and important update for you about amc, adam aaron's.
New year's res resolution. Excuse me for amc is to refinance the movie theaters chains pandemic debt. So let me paint the scenario for you. You can either read this article.

You can follow up with his personal twitter if you want to know, but basically they have just over 5 billion 5.4 billion in debt, and the maturity of this is about mostly 2026.. It is spread a little bit. I think they have some in maybe 2023, but most of it think 2026 and that's 5.4 billion and right now they have about 1.8 billion in liquidity, so 200 million in credit and then 1.6 million in cash. So obviously on basic math.

That doesn't add up. But remember the 2026 number is so incredibly important because that means that they have a four year runway to, for example, refinance it restructure it do what they need to and don't forget the box office right now is on the up and up there's a very good Chance that, in the most, the upcoming earnings announcement very very good chance that they go ebitda positive, the number that they needed was a box office of 2 billion. We got that in just in the nick of time, and i i think things are the on the up and up if you hold everything constant. No, it doesn't look good because you're like okay, if you're now positive, but just holding that well.

How are you gon na make up these other billions, but remember we're not in such a flat scenario. It's still bouncing back there's all these amazing movies coming in they're. Expanding their market share they're getting into the world of nfts, so i think it's a very poor way to break down this particular case study by just saying, oh, it's going to be the exact numbers we have right now, especially when you're talking about a four year. Runway, obviously, we'll be getting into the technicals and the stuff of all these stocks that we talked about, but i had one more piece of interesting news i wanted to share with you.

David bowie's estate sells his publishing catalog to warner and it went for upwards of 250 mil i mean i guess it. It makes sense. I mean i believe he had like a five-decade career in his estate sold it, but like warner, picking it up for a quarter bill talk about some serious money. Well, now that i'm thinking about it, though so they picked it up for 250, mil elon's net worth went up by 30 bill yesterday, elon theoretically could have bought all of david bowie's publishing catalog his entire discography and like could have forgotten about it like that, was That's actually crazy.
He went up by 30 bill yesterday and then this sold davey bowie's entire catalog for 250 mail, which is still obviously an ungodly amount of money. But i'm just thinking about like the proportionate nature of it, then think about that till now. That's nuts nuts nuts uh before we get into all the charts and everything just you know: amc estimated short interest 17 and gme estimated short interest. 14.3 6.

We did get some of the ftd reports from december 14th. Amc has a fails to deliver of 33 000. um. It's one of those things that i really don't think there should be any like ever, but i also want to keep in mind.

Why can't i do one year there we go remember how insane this got back here in january um, all of january. It just got more and more and more, and this is one of those things that i - and this is my own personal opinion. Yes, there are many more things. I need to learn about um, but with it this ftd spike was barely addressed.

It got like one paragraph and they're like yeah. Eventually we took care of them, but there was no information. So are there some now yeah there really shouldn't ever be any, but this huge spike never ever ever really addressed. They never told us who caused it.

They never told us how they were resolved, we're always behind by like pretty much a month of getting any information. The entire system surrounding failure to delivers it it's just nuts um. The most recent report for amc was 400 000. Obviously, like it's the same thing as always like that's not good previously, the most, i guess the biggest cluster we saw was the entire second half of june, where it was always coasting around four million, the high threes.

So a lot so like relative to that. That's a 90 drop off but also like i said when you're at 400 000. You really shouldn't be having many of these at all, and what is this spike right here, 27.7 million on the day that it went absolutely gangbusters on january 27th. So in the first half of the year - and what's weird about this - is all these spikes - it's very easy to see a correlation with any notable upswing.

It seems like right after these upswings are during the upswings. You see a big big spike in ftds and i guess the reason i'm bringing this up to. You is those types of things to me and my understanding of market structure in our conversations with the likes of dave, lauer, iex and other people who know far more about the market than me. I don't want this to be one of those things where i guess we lose like sight of the important things.

This is a very important thing like we can't just simply let them get away with the spikes and ftds in gamestop in january, amc in june and like let that be swept under the rug. Like that's one of those things that like very much needs an answer, we very much need an answer of. Is it legal that they took away the buy button if it is legal, should it be legal um, the correspondence between citadel and or robin hood and or the sec leading up to the events in late january? There's so many things that i think are so incredibly important to get to the bottom of, but let me switch over just so you can see the open that i i just don't want to lose sight of that. I think it's easy, for example, for people just to get like into some little weird, like pissing match with fintel or things like that when they're important and like i guess we definitely deserve those answers.
I think they are important to know and get to the bottom of, but i also don't want to get lost in where we are in the overall big picture whatsoever. Uh. Where are we at okay? We have amc over here, uh jimmy 152., all right. Let's let this thing open up: ding it ding the market is open, as always, if anything is going absolutely insane massive massive volatility.

Please please let me know more than happy to bring it up more than happy to bring it up all right, oh and hang on. Let me do this, so i just want to give you an update of my current positions. I have apple calls right now. Now they expired next friday, a strike price of 180 250..

I have roblox january monthlies and the strike on those is 110.. I have snowflake sno for february monthies, uh february 18th and those are at 3 370 and then i have tesla's for this friday, um tesla's. For this friday. Those are currently up a thousand dollars, tesla 1175s for once again jan 7th this friday.

So the tesla's very happy i sold off one of those yesterday because i'm still up on the play, but relative to yesterday, it's down by a thousand so still positive by a thousand but relative to yesterday down a thousand um snowflake, be eating me up. Roblox. Beating me up and uh, actually the apple ones are playing off pretty well, thus far apple nice uh, the average price on that was the 250.. So if you want to track that yourself, you are more than welcome to i'll.

Let you know when i close any of these um, basically on the right side of your screen here, i'm looking for a quick pop and i would love to get out of these positions. Amc kind of getting beat up. I got out of the spy calls yesterday for a small loss, but obviously, if i swung it today, it would have opened to a nice gain. One of those things could have would have should have.

But hey you can't cry over spilled milk. Um amc. Let's map out some support on that one: oh wait! No, that's why i'm on the 15 minute all right so here this is better, so we have some support key support, i would say between 26 25, but i mean you also have this weird support at 24.. All right so we're kind of at support.
Right now i would say roughly 26. um very much hoping that the shoulder head shoulder the inverse head and shoulder stays intact. Obviously time will tell but below that we have other additional support at 24.. So pretty much.

Every major dollar value down to 20.. We have some form of the support. So, let's see, hopefully it catches one of those very very quickly, but thus far um low volume out of the gate we're already three minutes into the day. It's only traded one mil.

So it's kind of a lower volume day game stop at 55, 000, so amc and gamestop uh on a relative basis, kind of low interest low interest, but hopefully we can offset it with some other high quality trades. Let's see, let's see uh apple, i would prefer if this, like kind of turned around there apple, going the exact opposite way of where i need it to go, but yet the spy looking good. What are the queues? Doing uh we're just kind of seeing the nasdaq? The tech sector kind of getting hit right there iwm having a good day one of these weird days where we actually see kind of an opposite these happen, but they're not that common to see the russell and amc have a completely divergent opening. So, let's see if this is sustained throughout the day or if it's just like a weird volatility opening someone said ford is ripping ford is having such a good day.

Ford is crushing it. I want ford, it's just so chasey right now. Ah, it's a gap up. Man ford's a like, if you're already in it, congratulations like if you're in it.

This looks amazing, it's just i'm not gon na get in when the rsi is this overextended on pretty much every single time frame, um, if you're in it, that's so so great. For you like what a beautiful breakout of like 22.50, it's pushing, it looks strong, it's just i i don't want to chase. I mean if you were to throw up here, let's throw up the keltner, it has to already be overextended. It is already over extended, the rsi is blown out.

It's not an advantageous time to get in it's the definition of chasing, but if you're already in it, you better have a big old smile on your face, because that is great. That's actually really really good. Congratulations! Um, you know what was doing really good yesterday as well was disney is disney continuing its disney up 1.8 i've seen some red across the board. Today, amc doesn't run with the market at all uh, it's very very similar to the russell i mean.

If you just look at the russell a lot of similarities, i'm not arguing that it has like a correlation of one or anything like that, but on an intraday basis, there's quite a bit of overlap between the two. All right apple would love for that to swing back around kind of watching tesla uh probably need to get out of my tesla plate today. Are there any whales? This morning, uh someone out of the gate got a tesla put, but that's the only whale trade thus far of the day forward, crushing it coffee, coffee, coffee, quick, coffee, break, uh, we're we have about 10 more minutes. Let's see how things are opening trying to not be crazy and make a position, i would have loved to already been out of this tesla.
It's just i kind of want to see a re retest of this 1200, but i'm actually seeing some weakness come on. Tesla. Do what you're supposed to do what you do in there tesla uh apple, definitely looks like it's picking up, maybe making a nice base right here. Uh spy hit a new all-time high diggity ding ding ding! Congratulations on any whatever! However, you were playing the spy uh disney.

Looking good shout out, brambles thomas shout out for becoming a space leap uh. Somehow it just made almost 100 of my disney calls, while sitting on the porcelain throne, thanks for showing me the way duck boy shout out carter, why wouldn't you want to buy in the money? Calls? Oh you! No, you can that's definitely a strategy um. It just changes your risk to reward profile. Typically, if you're in the money, it's a smaller risk to reward and also they're commonly more expensive, because you're paying for quite a bit more intrinsic value when it comes to the world of options, there's intrinsic and extrinsic intrinsic.

It's just the difference between the current price and your strike price if you're in the money. Extrinsic is all those other things like volatility and theta, and all that it's all the other add-ons. Hence why it's called extrinsic. So when you're buying things in the money and the deeper in the money you go, you have more and more intrinsic value, hence why it costs more and more so sometimes it's just like a question of capital.

Five calls for 477s spy 110 expiration bought yesterday at spy low bryant 92. Crushing it remember, mvis matt, look at it's pm all right, mvis microvision. I mean it's having a good singular day, but the overall chart has been like not the best. It's just a downtrend a little bit of a pop, then a downtrend then a little bit of a pop.

So it's one of those things. If you can't really break out and get momentum it might be similar to before, where it's just a little bit of a pop, and then it sells so um once again like do not chase. Obviously hey. I guess i say that as not really, if you want to chase, i hope you crush it.

I guess what i'm saying it's more of like reminding to myself of hey. I get seriously seriously burned most times when i end up chasing, so it's just better. For me to not um, i'm not the arbiter of your financial decisions. I wish you the best of luck, but with that one mvis, a one pre-market pop is not going to be enough for me to be like okay, it's like now worth my money.

How do you feel about your channel currently um running a channel is really tough, especially when you have such the high highs of just everything going wild everyone's, so positive, everyone having such a great time so recently, since november and december out of those two months, i've Lost one percent of my scribers net um, i'm down about four to five thousand subscribers. At one point i hit 375 right now, i'm at 3 70 and what it is. It's a mass exodus of people who exclusively want me to watch amc and or jimi, i'm in amc, i'm in gme, i'm not selling them until the shorts cover, but also the dd's been done. If there's news more than happy to cover it, if there's volatility more than happy to watch it, but in the meantime, there's no, in my opinion, moral issue with trying to make money elsewhere, trying to learn about the market trying to learn about futures cryptos options.
If things are boring, hey time is so important. You have to use your time most appropriately throughout the day. Let me be explicitly clear if amc and jimmy, if anything is going on, if there's news or volatility more than happy to discuss it dive into it. But there's my interests are far far beyond just those i'm in reality, i'm interested in the overall market structure and how do they? Market makers and hedge funds and brokers, pull all this off.

I am in no way interested in simply watching the minute minute stock chart of a company that i'm not actively trading. It's not the best use of your time. It's definitely not the best use of my time. If that's something that you want to do, hey that's cool like there's, nothing wrong with it.

It's just when you have thousands and thousands of people like i i feel like a certain. I guess duty to all of you to like continually teach to continually entertain and it's in no way teaching and it's in no way entertaining to watch the minute to minute chart of things that are just going sideways. That's my own opinion. I think it's.

The best call for the moon gang community and if you agree with that awesome and you could hang out and hopefully you're making money with me on tesla - hopefully you're making money on apple - hopefully i'm not in ford but hopefully you're, making money on that uh. I want you all to be wildly wildly successful, so yeah i have seen a one percent hit, which is a bummer. I mean you never want to go down at all like i know, i'm not saying one percent to like kind of undermine that. It's a rarity that you see those types of things and it sucks, but also um, it's one of those things that short term pain.

If you push that off, i think it can like lead to long-term like more serious issues, so i would rather face the issue now and make it a very, very clear and obvious stance that i am not exclusively an amc and gme youtuber. That's not what i want to do with my career. I don't think it's the best career decision, so i'd rather take those punches now and stick with the people who are truly interested in learning about the market and truly trying to make money um than people who are just like trying to scream into their own echo Chamber, it's just not my style. It's not my personality, uh, there's other people who want to continue on that path, and i i truly wish them the best of luck with it um, but this i it needs to be higher level because there's just so many important things for us to all learn About - and i know that was like an offhanded comment, but i think it's important to share because i feel like we all have a pretty awesome relationship in the moon gang.
So i want to be open and honest about everything going on and it is what it is and i will always do the best content creation in terms of education and entertainment that i can possibly do and at the end of the day. I hope you get some form of value from it. That's been my goal since day one. I truly love the markets.

I love teaching about the markets and when things are boring, i love just making jokes silly jokes about silly things to hopefully make people's day even one percent better, all right. How are we crushing tesla all right? Tesla? Oh wait! You guys cannot see this all right. So here is the update, um, so tesla, the leftover one. I am up by 2375., i'm down 1700 on snowflake down 1 200 on roblox and i'm up 130 on apple um.

So right here we're actually almost break even on the day. Just these roblox and snowflake ones are kind of beating me up, and i think i just got a little overzealous with snowflake man. Snowflake is getting crushed and i just don't get it because so many people, like the whale bets on this thing, are nuts and it's one of those things that do. I just want to bite on the weakness and lower my average, or do i just want to cut it loose before it gets even worse snowflake, but it's so long.

It's february, like i bought myself time, but, of course, as soon as you get into anything, you want it to work out. Obviously, well, i have to keep my original risk. My risk is right here. 3.

18.. It's going to be what it's going to be good thing: we're making solid trades with tesla, at least to make some of that back unity someone's asking about unity. I think unity is a great play, not a short term in any way. I think it's an interesting way to play the metaversed explosion, which i think will happen this year and next year through the equities market, and at this point you have a nice support at 127, a nice nice support at 127..

So i'm personally waiting to see if i can get it a little bit closer. I don't want to get too greedy, but maybe even if i could cut this difference in half like the low 130s, really minimize my risk and getting there for probably a nice medium to long term hold on that so unity. I like it, i'm watching it. I just don't know if it's quite the time to really strike, but definitely a fan of it, ford still crushing it all right, tesla it got to the outside of its keltner.

It was just a little overextended and then a quick reversion back to its midline apple. Really not doing much being boring. What else is is rivian moving rivien having a good day, both rivien and ford. Looking very, very similar, lucid, got hit coming down wrong.
There's, not many green things. Today i have no ribbing position. I have no forward position but uh. It looks like ev's, or at least some of the eevees.

I guess the f loosens not having most evs. I guess i should say are having a good day. Oh wait. You guys can't see my bad.

My apologies. I got too excited about uh those transitions now, but rivium, showing some strength. The nasdaq someone just called out that the nasdaq is still red. It is so that explains the pressure under or the lack of success of apple.

Thus far, today, microsoft, microsoft, i would call out as another good um another solid, like metaverse, medium to long term play um saitama. I hope i'm pronouncing that right. I have been sushi swap you can get it. Is this the right one? Does it not have enough? It's up 33 uh, probably on coin market cap.

It might be a little bit better to track it, but if you want to know more about it, uh i actually am going to do like a little part of the crypto show will be dedicated to what in the world is saitama. So if you want to learn about this, just some high level things of what it is, the tokenomics the goal of the community um, actually a little tidbit here and there about the people running the community. Some recent news, where to get it, that type of thing um, so high-level information. If you want to know about saitama, that will definitely be a portion of the crypto show today for sure so saitama.

You know. I looked up um like the pronunciation thing today and when i was listening to it over and over it kept saying like saitama like s-i-g-h-t, like saitama like if you go to like any pronunciation thing uh. So please someone correct me if i'm saying it wrong, but uh. If you do like a pronunciation, it's definitely saitama.

But a lot of you are saying: satama satama, but on the interwebs it says saitama, say tama i'll, just say it the way you guys are saying it saitama, saitama saitama. Is it like that saitama? This is what's so interesting about when a like natural english feature. Speaker is trying to get the proper voice inflections for like um. I believe it's japanese, it's just we do not say the right sounds at all i'll, just say it really really fast.

So no one can like pick up on if i'm saying it improperly, saitama saitama. I guess i was putting in a whole extra tea site, tama saitama saitama. Thank you, but yeah we'll be going over that coffee time, coffee time. Folks, all right, microsoft, coming back down the spy actually taking a hit apple coasting sideways.

What's moving, what are the whales doing today, bitcoin popping ethereum, popping solana, popping saitama popping uh, so the one a lot of people? Well, i guess: okay uh! If you want crypto, if you're trying to get into crypto, i think a good one to check out. Is this uh over the past two weeks, a lot of people have been telling me about ftx and blockfolio uh ftx blockfolio, that's their phone app um, it's in the description of the video, but they also have ftx. They have like a pro version, a kind of equivalent to coinbase pro, so that's ftx us, but then there's an also an international version. So how did this come about? Well, basically, it seems very, very confusing, with people like hang on, i'm in this state, i'm in this country can this work here.
Can that work there? This seemed to be just like a little bit more consistent across the board, because, if you're an international person you just get ftx if you're in the us, it's ftx us and then also, if you don't need that pro version of like the very fancy trading. Like the ui is great honestly, if i'm being completely honest, that's what i like the most um that was probably my biggest pullback on coinbase was. It was very, very difficult to know what your average cost was and i get why they did it. But i didn't like it, i just didn't like it because of that and um.

I still have my voyager account just so everyone knows, but what's cool about this is every single ten dollars that you trade and the more you trade. They give you a free, crypto um, so if you trade a minimal amount, it might just be something like doge, but if you trade more and more like higher and higher amounts, you just get it. So i don't know i kind of like that. So if i'm trading, i just get more and more crypto opposed to the just like the initial sign up kickback.

So if you want to check that out, i mean see if it's for you see if you like the ui um, but once again, ftx blockfolio is the phone app and then there's two like web versions, one for us residents and one for international residents. This weekend, you could buy saitama in the app store. Yes, so uh from what i'm reading from my research this morning on it uh. As of january 8th, we are gon na get uh, saitama mask uh and that's something that i'll obviously be covering in the crypto stream and then also uh from when i'm reading some initial news articles.

I believe the community is kind of doing a pretty cool. Like charity, push like donations to like financial donations to people in need, which i think is pretty interesting. Some people are asking where you can get it saitama. So to my understanding, the kind of the go-to ones are like unisop yuna swap sushi, swap.

I believe you can pick it up on bitmart. I believe you can pick it up on gate, io, um and also there is a way on coinbase wallet to send some east air and then swap it, and that i believe that was something i was like reading. But it seems like by far the most popular one is basically uniswap and sushi. Swap someone else bitmart.
Is there yeah bitmart coinbase wallet, so these are all ones where people can get it. I do not own any saitama, but it is gon na be one of my ten and actually i have figured out nine of my ten that i'm gon na do a one year, crypto hold on mana sand, gala matic, floki, axey, crow, saitama link, and it's just One more in there i, if i'm being honest, i kind of want it to be ripple, but the issue with that is like, then i have to go out of my way exclusively to make an account on hubble just to get ripple when these other ones, like They're more commonly found elsewhere, so i have nine locked in i've made up my mind on nine, but there is that one opening spot. So if there's an overall important thought that everyone has i'm more than happy to do it uh, what else do we have? So there's other ones i see like loop ring. I already have um sheba.

I already have like i'm looking for ones. I don't have uh technically, i do have matic, but i just think it'll be an interesting year for l2s uh loopring already have, because what this little project is, it's gon na be a thousand each, and i already own definitely more than a thousand on loop ring. Uh, i see a lot of hbar or is that just carlos carlos is very excited about hbar. I didn't know if there was multiple people.

Ftm is another one i'm seeing sand already on the list v chain i already have maybe just ftm i'll. Do phantom crow v chain already have v chain, ftm for sure so ripple and ftm, i would say, are the leading two. Maybe even h bar are like the three that i'm really considering we'll have to decide that we'll have to come up with a reasonable solution, all right, anywho, anywho, all right back to the overall market, so apple, looking good tesla coming back. Let me just double check this really really quickly apple up 250 on three, so these are probably what trading at 3 30ish right now roblox getting crushed snowflake, getting crushed and right now on tesla, currently trading at 41, and i got in at 25.50.

You know what we're gon na do on tesla is we're just gon na create a closing order and i'm gon na set it 25.50. Let's just double that up to 25.50 doubled up is 51., we'll just do 51.25 confirm and send all right. So i already have the sitting order in for tesla uh very interested in getting out today. Just so everyone knows, and that's just because it expires uh this friday.

Well, i might have to be changing that order if it continues to trend like this, but hey apple's. Looking good apple's, looking good um, am i ever going to mention amc again i mean i already did a breakdown of it today. What's it it's kind of selling off it's a little bit depressing to look at positive news, though you have bullish divergence. The stock has gone lower, but the rsi is higher, so this actually might kind of signaling a bounce right here, but yeah i mean if it's moving it's this is it's a low volume day it's 5 mil and it's slowly bleeding off.
Today. It's kind of more interesting to track the ones that have like higher volume, higher activity, austin announcing official production this week. So i know there's a lot of rumors about that. Look at that.

Look at that bounce call um, but i don't know if that's necessarily confirmed some people are asking about giraffe kings, dkng, not the best day and ugh coming up to that support at 26.. So, in terms of online betting, i actually picked up some pen and the reason i like pen over draftkings is just because not only is it online sports gambling, but they also have exposure to physical casinos. So it's like oh it's kind of cool to get. I guess access to both of those an investment into both of those while dkng draftkings is exclusively online sports.

While penn has a little bit um, i guess more of a full-fledged offering physical casinos sports. They have exposure to the digital media, brand bar stool, so some various things going on there. How is crow doing? I see some people, i'm gon na pick up crow and my reasoning honestly with crow. Well, if i'm being completely honest, i don't have much reasoning for these.

A lot of these were just people telling me i should get into it. Um crow crypto.com is very popular. Like they're. They have like the naming rights the staples center now um.

They are doing a lot of lot of marketing and advertising with all these famous celebrities and athletes. It's just i'll. I guess i'll buy it right here at this midline and hope that i'm right on it but looks like i'll be getting what about 2 000 of cro uh. If i put a grand into it, roughly trading at 50 cents right now, but none of these are active well, once i get into it i'll be holding it all all year, all calendar year, um keep amc talked about, is really important.

Yeah. I don't think doing the technicals is really important. I don't at all, i think it's more important to dive into market bankers. Ftds um, i don't find, i don't think, there's much utility for the community continually looking at the chart day over a day.

If anything, i think it's the exact opposite of this diamond handed like nature of it. If you're in it and you're diamond handing it you're holding it, you don't care about the day-to-day movements if you're an active trader. That is a completely different story. If you're actively trading amc yeah, of course you need to be watching it, but there is not much utility in watching amc's chart there, literally just isn't it i i just don't.

I guess someone would have to articulate it to me because, like maybe i'm missing something i i just don't really see it all right, well, tesla, not holding so time to lock in this. What's it trading at mark 3430, oh tesla, all right! We're closing this! All right, i'm trying to get out at 34.50, confirm and send we're in we're out. Okay, i'm out, i am out, i am out. 34.50 was the closing price.
So yesterday we picked up two tesla for 25.50. We got out of one at 47.75 and we got out of the other one just now at 34.50 34.50, which is what a 900 gain all right. So we locked that in that's actually solid, solid trade on tesla um just missed the excitement. I suppose matt summer was an exciting time.

Oh, it was a. I love that that was. It was such an amazing time, but like there's not like, what's there to be excited about right now, uh, if there's something to be excited about, like i'm gon na, be there with you, because that was like it was the highlight that was so much fun.

6 thoughts on “ep. 204 stock market swings: onward upward”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Trevon Jackson says:

    I'm really happy for today πŸ˜ŠπŸ˜‰. I finally got my profit of $70,000 on this crypto investment after feeling so escatic and heavy minded that nothing good can come out of it…a big thanks to Bryan Anthony Decker

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars GettingStuffDone says:

    Why is ford going up today? Ford 52week high?

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars fkubiggness says:

    love the intro lol

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kristof V says:

    Unity just dropped 10%. Any insights? Can't find any info yet.

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars L T says:

    Matt, something is up

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Hudson Donarld says:

    people will be kicking themselves in few weeks if they miss the opportunity to buy and invest in cryptocurrency and stocks retracing…..BE WISE🀷

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