Market Fears Return: Don't Fight The Fed
Dumb Money w/ Matt Ep. 208
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Hmm, hello, how's it going buenos nachos, it's the power hour stream and things are bouncing honestly. They kind of started bouncing starting at 11 and we're seeing some green in the market. Hey. I honestly thought today was going to be worse than it is so i have a little bit of a smile on my face and let's hope that this momentum is somehow indicative of fingers crossed that the fed announcement well not really the fed announcement.

I guess the government announcement that the fed will be paying attention to with the cpi the consumer price index on wednesday morning. Let's hope that this is indicative a sign, some signaling of some positive stuff money flowing back in. We yes, obviously need to get through tomorrow, tuesday. The big announcement tomorrow is jerome powell being reaffirmed by the senate the same as the fed governor brainerd and then really.

The action starts on wednesday of this week, wednesday morning, 8 30, before the market opens. There's going to be some fireworks then again on thursday, before the market opens at 8, 30 there's another one: the ppi, the producer price index that comes out so wednesday, thursday friday. Today was volatile, a very volatile opening and then things kind of cooled off and now we're kind of in this waiting pattern. I suppose a bit and then i think tomorrow it could be a bit more quiet and then maybe we see some action in to close tomorrow because remember the announcements before the market opens.

So i'm thinking, maybe power hour tomorrow, could get a little bit spicy and then wednesday, thursday friday, i'm fully fully fully fully expecting volatility should be interesting. So that's a little bit of a setup, but let's quickly look into some charts and there's some other things. I want to go over right here so, as you can see green green green, i mean the spy popped off of 457 all the way up to 463.. We have amc going from 2140 up a dollar to 22.40.

We have jimmy going from 120 to 128. We have tesla, i still have my tesla put, so my face is getting ripped off, but if you have tesla calls seriously congratulations uh. What else do we have? We have some nice bouncing in apple apple, went from 168-ish to almost 171 above 171 amd. I mean it's just everything got to this midday session somewhere between like 11 12 30, and then things just started bouncing uh.

You can really see it here in the queues. I mean tech started to bounce. You could see it in the russell that didn't bounce as much but overall you're getting the general vibe of what has happened since midday money flowing back into the market. That's awesome and, of course, okay, we're gon na go over what the whales are doing.

We're going to look at some technicals to get us a better idea for tomorrow, the areas of support and resistance, but before we do that, i kind of want to play something for you and read something for you. I think this is uh noteworthy and impactful to all of us. Just so you know the sec chairman gary gensler was on with sorkin today on squawk box, and this is some commentary from early this morning. I think it's good for all of us to.
I don't know you're gon na. I think it's worthwhile for all of us to understand kind of his mindset and where he's from - and maybe we have a little bit of a bs detector going on there's been a number of massive uh insider trades. This is not insider trading per se, but uh ceos who've been selling uh you've been trying to update the 10b15 uh program in terms of how they're able to do that. I wanted to ask you actually not about them so much as about congress.

Nancy pelosi was recently asked whether members of congress should be able to buy and sell individual stocks. She made the case that they should, and i don't know if we've ever asked you directly do you believe that congress members should given the information that they often are in possession of and have you thought about any form of additional regulation from the sec? Well, it's interesting andrew there's, a law that congress passed not that many years ago called the stocks act and it was it addressed. This issue is addressed this issue about the use of material, non-public information and sometimes that non-public information is inside a company, but that non-public information can also be inside of the deliberations and discussions. Uh uh in in the legislative branch, and so so congress did address that and we're the agency uh uh that has some oversight there and and we're going to vigorously enforce that law, which is uh.

I'm sorry, it's maybe 10 years old. But you you have no concerns about the credibility of congress, the credibility of corporations that oftentimes are talking to members of congress when it comes to these issues, i think i think that our whole system of finance comes down to one basic word. It's called trust and it comes back to becky's earlier question and your current question: how do we get the best trust, so companies can raise money efficiently and investors can quote trust the market and protecting against insider trading, whether it's at a company or whether it's a Government official both are important to the basic trust. Now, i'm fully aware, you might have some feelings related to that uh.

I think there was two different parts that we should really dive into. The first part was a question. He didn't really answer and i am outspokenly not the biggest fan of sorkin, but he did ask some good questions. You know you got to give credit where credit is deserved and he asked him.

He said. Hey pelosi said we should be that congress. People should be able to trade. Do you think so, and it was very, very evasive.

I don't know if he like, you could see. He was stumbling. He was kind of long long, pauses. He he just didn't answer it.

He basically explained to us that there was a law made ten years ago and what i don't get and then here's my concern is he said that we vigorously enforce it. I would argue that they don't. Why would i argue that they don't well a hundred and eighty-two high-level congressional staffers just got caught, not reporting trades in the window that they're supposed to report it. We know that and that's just the staffers.
We know that, there's the congress people themselves, the congressmen, the congresswomen are not reporting the trades. We know that they are getting into and out of positions before huge deals are announced. We know there's not much of a different storyline with federal judges. We know there's not much of a different storyline with members of the federal reserve.

This is something that we see time and time again and then in a weird way. The way i guess we were gaslit about inflation being transitory. This is strange to me. That was the verbatim we are going to vigorously enforce it, no you're, not you you haven't been.

If this is the definition of vigorously enforce, i don't know. I guess i need to crack open the dictionary and understand what vigorously and enforced means, because, right now it seems like there's various media outlets who are just doing research on people involved in politics and like they're trading, they're trading they're, not reporting, they're, not reporting, they're, Making a lot of money they're outperforming the s, p, 500, it's just crazy and what we're supposed to just accept it and like it's honestly kind of crazy to me that this question was asked like and props to them. That's a good question! Those are the questions that should be asked and then, of course, we just got the classic political answer where they didn't actually answer anything which i don't know. That's like it's whole other thing.

But it's weird to me that we're in a scenario where the sec, their funding their money, comes from congress, so we're asking them to be their own watchdog like. Are we seriously asking the sec to bite the hand that feeds them it? Just doesn't the system we've built? How are they going to check the people who are literally sending them their checks? I i just don't understand that. So that's the first part which well, i guess, three parts. I thought it was a good question.

Unfortunately, we didn't get an answer. Uh he just stepped over. He didn't say anything about congress people. He said the question was straight up: should congress people be able to trade no answer, but the second part of it is trust and this concept of trust.

The big keyword, the the t word followed by the r and the? U and the s and the t that word so it's all about trust. Our system of finance comes down to one basic word, and it is trust you know at the first part of this. This was only two minutes. This was a minute 57..

I thought we were being gaslit and now i feel like i'm being ghastly about being gaslit. I don't even know there's so much gut lighting and there's so much gassing. It's just gaslight gas. I feel this is just a crazy thing in everything.
That's happened over this past year, the biggest influx of retail traders, percentage-wise magnitude, wise and questions that we just want answers to what, and that was the statement. One basic word is trust. That's what we've been saying this entire time is. We would love to trust this system.

Can you answer some basic questions? I have some of these questions. These are the things i'm personally interested in. Maybe you are with some of them all of them, none of them. I don't know why.

Why, oh, why riddle me this is there's so much power concentration in two market makers between citadel securities and virtue. They represent an ungodly high percentage of all of this training. They are market makers too much power, it's concentrated in too few of players. How is that safe? How is that legal? How are there not conflicts of interest, speaking of conflicts of interest, what's going on with payment for order flow? How is that legal? There are clearly conflicts of interest in it to the point that gary gensler in may himself said that robin hood had explicitly gone out of its way to accept higher payment for order flow in return for worse quality execution.

To the like magnitude that that poor, the piss-poor quality of execution, it would have been better off to just go to a commission-based brokerage. That's how bad it was. So we have questions about market makers. We have questions about payment for order flow.

Let's talk about ftds failures to deliver. Why does it take us so long to get that information? Why are there not any details about who prompted the ftd? Why? How was it solved? There's so much going on with ftds we're in the dark about that one two day settlement with the we are, we sent people to the moon and you're telling me it takes two days to settle a trade. Obviously, obviously we have the technology to solve that. Clearly, we have the technology to solve that.

The issue we don't is it's a hit to the bottom line of a lot of these brokerages. They would rather have collateral with the dtcc the kabul of our stock market. They want it on the net, they don't want. It on the gross they're collateral.

They want to keep it as low as they can, so their extra money can be loaned out to wherever, so they can learn and earn extra interest. This argument of the technology overhaul that it's a farce - it's not true. We have the technology, it's just they don't want to, because it's going to hurt their bottom line, even though it would lead to a better, safer, more secure overall system. They would rather put their bottom line ahead of all that.

Let's keep the system fragile and dependent because it hey it lines our pockets. Beyond that, i could go on for days 13f filings. I don't get it. Why are we reporting long positions, calls and puts what about shorts? What who, who was sitting in a room and they're like hey, we're going to make people with over 100 million dollars report their positions and literally someone raised their hand? They're, like oh hey, i have a question and they're like yeah.
What do you want and someone's like, hey uh, that lobby firm just paid me a shitload of money to say we shouldn't report shorts and then they're like? Can we get some of that he's like i don't know i'll ask him yo? Can they get money if they don't report shorts? Is that cool? Oh okay, thanks man see you at lunch yeah you can get some money too. All right, sick! You don't have to report shorts, we'll just do long calls and puts do. I know what any of those mean absolutely not, but i will sign that law off another one that they signed off. Who pitched this idea of pattern day trading? Who did it? I don't know they're like uh.

I have a great idea and they're like. What's your great idea he's like you know how our markets, like you, know how we always pitch that it's a free market and everyone can engage in it. Well, you know how it's like more difficult to be successful when you have a small amount, because just generically it's harder to get what you need to there's a lack of information. The list goes on yeah yeah.

We are well aware it sucks to have a small amount of money like it does for many aspects of life. Why don't we make it even more difficult for them by only allowing three day trades as in they can only get in and out three times a week yeah, but what happens if they're in that fourth position and they need to get out because they're at a Loss, oh yeah, no, no, we'll we'll actually block their account for 90 days, whoa whoa! That's a good idea! Let's sign that one into law, let's see if we can get more lobbyist payment for that. My point here is: i could yammer on for hours about this stuff right there. What was there five things off the top of my head? That's from like one year of this, i'm not some, i'm not the sec chairman.

I don't work out a hedge fund. I don't work out a market maker, i'm realizing this stuff at 27 from a year of live streaming. What these people should know more, they should know exponentially more. They should know exactly what's going on and how to fix it.

The fact that we're here talking about this should not be our job. This is not our job, i'm not! I just don't get it. Why are we, the ones who have to have a sense of intellect and morality, to push the needle in any conceivable way when this is literally what they get their paycheck for their paycheck? This is their job like hey, thanks for making the markets better. Here's your pay.

I don't. I just don't understand why the weight of this is possibly falling on our community, which is a lie. I get why i get why it's because they're making money they're getting paid by the right people they're trying to save their post-government career and get a job in the private sector when they're done because of their knowledge. It's just a lot of people who are in positions that the name of the position is to ensure the system and the betterment in the system for all, instead they're using it for very selfish growth purposes, whether professionally, whether in their bank account whatever it is.
It's just across the board and one of the hot topics that people are talking about right now, and i think this was well discussed by the brothers at apes together, strong doc check this out. They just tweeted it. If you want to read it yourself, i retweeted it and they're talking about family offices the argument that family offices don't require the same disclosures regulations as hedge funds, because they're only playing with their own money as a fallacy, obviously, as they go on and on and On a lot of good points being made check it out at the end, family offices are doomed payment for overflows. Doom pathetic short reporting is doomed.

Why? Because the apes aren't effing leaving and they aren't. I don't think they are. This is to me this is what the eight movement is. I don't think it makes any sense in my mind that the ape movement is the success and or failure of an individual stocks.

Apes are people fighting for a properly functioning market. The things we're asking for can be summed up with give us a level playing field. Hey the market seems a great vehicle to develop wealth if you make the right plays. I want to play that game and i want to play by the exact same rules as everyone else playing that game.

To me. That's the tagline for the apes. Am i the one that gets to decide that? No, absolutely not! I don't think any individual person does. It's not like there's a leader or a council of apes, but that's where i'm coming from to give all of you a better insight of why i've been doing this and my goal with all of this.

It's to fix some of these seriously egregious insidious problems that we have just been hampered down with and tied down with, and it's exclusively to the benefit of the elite and all they're doing is increasing the fragility of the overall system and if they keep going down This path, one day, it's gon na everyone once again, like 2008., this system it was abused, it was abused, it was abused and it works until a series of events come together and it all blows up in their face and they still don't get in trouble similar To 2008, when things go, awry they're not going to blame the people who are abusing the system, they're going to say look what retail did? Am i being pessimistic? No, i'm being realistic, literally the federal reserve's risk report. They do twice a year. They're saying hey here. Are some risks? They said that retail traders were a risk to the overall financial stability retail traders, one one more time.
Apparently it's us that's the risk to the overall system, not the duopoly of market makers, not the lying brokers, not the piss-poor data reporting systems. It's retail, it is a guy in his basement who just bought a stock. Apparently i'm a risk to the system. That's a free market, allegedly the best one in the world, apparently sitting in your shorts on your couch, buying something on a mobile app, is the risk to the system and not the billions and billions and billions of dollars that are transacted with in all these nice.

Italian suits on wall street. Doing all these shitty crazy deals behind closed doors. I guess it's. Just the people like us eating cheeses, drinking sangria, buying some stocks on hop on our foam were the risks of the system, and it's that obviously, i'm saying it facetiously.

Coming back to like this trust in it, it's absurd. It's absurd and the answer to all of this is you just don't let it go like they're hoping they know what they're saying is like just inept. They know what they're saying is erroneous. They know across the board what they're saying is arguably immoral.

They know that they're playing they're playing the part that they're told to play they're playing the part that the people around them, particularly above them, advise them to play they're playing the part that they're advised to to ensure that their paychecks keep coming that that's the system, We're in they're hoping that they can get out of this unscathed without people remembering what they truly did and with it because of the rise in technology because of the rise in digital communities. I think we've been granted one of the most insanely cool opportunities ever to truly fix something. Maybe i'm wrong. Maybe i just don't know enough about life, i'm 27.

Maybe i'm too optimistic. Maybe i just don't have enough life experience, but i also know that if we do nothing, nothing will happen. At least, if we try, we have some sort of percentage chance as long as it's above zero as long as it's above a zero percent chance that we can maybe get something fixed. Well, you got to take that shot, whether you want to do it moristically for everyone involved and for generations or if you want to do it selfishly just because you want the markets to work, so you can make money, i don't see it.

I don't see the downfall to it. The opportunity cost to me is non-existent. It's only to the upside if we band together, cohesively, being technically accurate, being astute being well spoken and all being good representations of what this community is truly attempting to do. I don't see a downside, i don't see a downside whatsoever and i guess time will tell we're going to see how it plays out.

But if you want to check this out, don't forget to read it at apes together doc on twitter. If you want to see their little rant here, if you want to watch this, this is at squawk cnbc. If you want to hear him oops sorry, if you want to listen to this but crazy stuff, and it's interesting that this is all happening now, almost one year from when this all really really got started: uh late january of 2021, where the ape community that we Know of basically almost one year old and i look back and i think about all the things that happened over the past 12 months, and it makes me, i suppose, beyond excited to think of the things that we could possibly pull off in the next 12 months. All right, let's go back to some of these stonks uh, you can only fight from inside, become a senator and make hay while the sun shines shout out chris woodward first person to have a 12 month membership that at least i recall shout out chris uh.
This is why you stick with crypto v chain, along with the launching new stablecoin vusd will be top five runners for 2022 v, chaining cryptos better than stocks uh. I don't know about that. I think it's good to be involved like to have diverse, like you want to be diverse, not only between in individual stocks and multiple stocks, but also other asset classes, i'm in crypto i'm in options i'm in stocks. I don't know if any of my futures positions are currently long, but i also buy futures.

I think diversity is good charlotte. I did well and i actually know well as much as you can. I know chris has been here for quite a while, so uh chris shoot me a dm on twitter. We could give you uh something special, oh, a little moon gang merger, something along those lines for being that 12, a year old, 12 months.

Chris you've been here for a hot minute. Are you going to swing your tesla put overnight? I am so my risk and i put this in uh, the moon gain community tab. My risk is 1055.. Honestly, the play is waiting to see how it goes on wednesday.

Like any movement today or tomorrow, it's really kind of coming down to what's happening with the cpi report at 8, 30 on wednesday uh wait, someone said mc is running, amc is pushing, is jimmy, also pushing. I mean the spy and the queues look very, very similar. Gme waking up the spy doing its thing, amc doing its thing, tesla doing its thing. Uh shout out shalom speak for yourself.

I eat fritos and drink mountain jew, mountain dew. I don't know the last time i had a mountain dew mega ape 69. dallas jackman. What's going on hello, hello, hello, all right: where are we at? We have about 30 minutes left and we are seeing quite a bit of strength quite a bit of strength right now, uh some people are saying: r-e-l-i is moving r-e-l-i, it is actually looking pretty solid.

Does reli still have a considerable short interest? Let me look up reli very quickly and then we can see what some of the whales have been doing recently. I just want to see the short interest on relie. I have no reoi position just so everyone knows 52.65 percent and it just had a nice technical breakout. Uh 788.
I mean that is definitely a technical breakout and if it closes above eight, somehow that's definitely kind of noteworthy support. 740. Pretty solid risk reward trade. I'm personally not going to take it just my capital is caught up losing on tesla right now, but uh kind of a nice play there on reli congrats.

If you got a piece of that, i hope you're crushing it hope you are crushing it now. Let's take a look at what the whales are doing. Oh some tesla puts tesla pus puts, puts, puts um tesla 1000. 1035.

1000. All four, this friday, 1015. For this friday, an adobe call a boeing call, a tesla put a tesla put a tesla put a tesla play, i'm seeing a lot of puts, which is making me a little bit more confident in my position, i'm i suppose, attempting to mentally prepare myself, for whatever Happens tomorrow because tomorrow, yes, it's an important day, but i also know that the real movement is basically going to be completely related to the cpi number, which comes out wednesday. So as long as i just don't get beat up too much, i'm trying to read what all the big guys are doing and i'm seeing quite a few big guys at least for this week, i'm seeing quite a few puts.

I mean over the past two weeks. This is wildly different than what we're used to seeing wildly different, usually we're seeing tesla calls tesla calls test calls tesla calls i'm seeing quite a bit of money going against tesla at this moment in time. Just for this week, i'm not saying like some long-term thing. If you listen to me and my thoughts on evie, i'm a long-term ev supporter, i am a long-term tesla supporter.

This is literally just trying to figure out a way to make some extra money this particular week as we're getting some of the inflation reports. Uh delco in the house, delco in the house, hey just a very friendly, quick reminder. Just so you know um. It would be awesome if, if you do want to go through and end up sending a chat in a quick reminder to all of you, i would truly appreciate it if you could send it through on rumble uh at one of these points.

We're gon na have to do it where, like we're, we're gon na get to the point where we're exclusively reading the chats from rumble um and i'm referring to like the super chats or the royal rumbles, the rumble rants uh, whatever we want to call of those Normal chat obviously chat wherever you want. If you like, the twitch community, the youtube community, the royal rumble community have at it, but i'm just saying it will work out better in the long term. If some of these paid ones or almost all the paid ones are coming through on rumble - and just so you know, jackie, just posted the link, if you're looking for the link, he just posted it in chat. Are you sorry you sold tesla after the market open, uh yeah i am, but also my strike was far away.
I was getting gon na get beat up no matter what so, i'm i'm not really sorry, i sold tesla at the open. I'm just sorry that i trade tesla, because no matter what i do it's gon na do the opposite type of a deal. Uh bob saget passed away today. He actually passed away uh, i believe, last night yeah.

I was like getting right back on the plane and uh. I read that and super super sad, so bob saget uh comedian very well known for his acting in full house back in the day yeah. He it's been a tough time, tough time for comedians. We lost betty white, we lost bob saget.

Hopefully the list does not continue to grow so funny. That was hilarious. What else do we have speak for your sifa? Your fritos thoughts on spy 500 calls for february 18th um, not my go-to move just be like. I really am not thinking past right now for those those types of like, let's call medium term plays, i have no opinions on them until we get the inflation data.

That's how pivotal this report is going to be like if the inflation comes in lower than expected, look for everything to rip higher if it comes in hotter than expected, look for everything to take a pretty healthy check to the downside. It's all coming in with the inflation reports when starting wednesday and then we'll get another one on thursday. So with that the 500 call mark 1000 rr, our our um we're just not gon na know. Here, like i wouldn't feel comfortable, even giving a guess on that.

Until we know what's going on with inflation on wednesday norm, mcdonald he's another one. Another hilarious comedian wall street shows just how much corruption in our government exists and that this we can simply say imagine what we don't get to see. Yeah, definitely a concerning thought for sure. The things that go on that like we're just not gon na ever know about it's wild wild, wild wild.

All right! Where are we at? Where are we at whoa whoa, whoa whoa? All right, i'm just seeing if there's any breaking news for us in our last half hour, i don't want to miss anything. Just checking a couple different sites, the power hour. It is power hour, nothing, nothing too crazy. Well, spy's still bouncing are the cues still bouncing the cues are still balancing.

Let's take a look at some of these bigger time frames. Let's get an idea, so the spywall gap, film, remember the low from friday 464.65 high statistical chance of that bouncing. Definitely a high chance of that getting filled. If your question is today tomorrow, unfortunately, i don't know um that there are certain ways to break down those odds of like if it's this percentage point will get filled in this time.

This time. This time there is statistical breakdowns of that, i'm sure if a quick, google search will produce the results you're interested in. But i do want to remind you that there are actually three gaps: four gaps to the downside, which once again, will eventually get filled the most extreme one is this gap to 436, and that was a high on october 13th. Given enough time that gap will definitely get filled, it's just a question of when uh could get filled pretty rapidly.
If i would actually say it could get filled very rapidly, if inflation comes in hot and the federal reserve decides to follow through with three plus definitive interest rate hikes, i think that would get filled or, if they're continually as aggressive with normalizing their balance sheet and Basically, following through with their quantitative, tapering um tightening sorry too many keywords: quantitative tightening. I think that could push us down to that gap bill relatively quickly, but in reality when in doubt, zoom out, i mean even including the sell-off when the rona first hit us in the first quarter of 2020, even including that look at this we're still in the Exact top right, you're gon na have these corrections, but if history's taught us anything, the major corrections are clearly to be bought. You just kind of withstand it. You take the punches, you roll with the punches and i in no way would ever say.

Fear-Mongering or just i don't know how much we're not even this is the all-time high, we're down 3.37 percent from an all-time high. That's not uh a fear-mongering, a fear-inducing statement, it's like yeah. Of course you want higher and higher and higher, and you want to make money off of it. Every day would be ideal.

It's just you're going to quickly learn, that's not exactly how the market works, crypto, starting to show a little bit life to it. I mean it's been, it's been rough. This is a pretty cool website, crypto bubbles uh, you can see what's been going on over the past week. You can sort it by various ways but check this out.

It's just a sea of red, also in the crypto market. Also in the crypto market, all right, where are we at? Do you think that the announcement of the giga austin in berlin on the horizon it will come down? I have 1070 calls for 128., so there were rumors that the announcement would actually come last week nicholas. Actually, part of the reason i had calls was because i too heard that i was like oh okay, like we're gon na get something about a gigafactory, probably gon na, be like you mentioned, either austin and or berlin related. But to the best of my understanding, we didn't get any big announcements related to gigafactories last week, so it sounds like something's on the horizon, but it's not really the setup of like there's nothing guaranteed that we're gon na have to hear it like.

That was just a very popular rumor and you don't know if there's truth to said rumor. Everything i heard was that oh we're gon na hear it last week and then obviously that didn't come to fruition. So i don't really know. In general i mean you're asking for 128.
I mean that is like in that's relatively a shorter time frame like if you were to ask me, do you think we're going to get major announcements related to austin and berlin's gigafactories this calendar year yeah? I do i strongly do do i think that it's necessarily going to happen this month. At that point, it's a little bit of guesswork. I have two shares of tesla got a good piece at 998, wanting to start playing options wednesday or into next week. If you're, starting with your options career, my recommendation would definitively be start with a paper trading account paper training account it options.

It takes a little bit to get used to them for sure, so you might as well use fake money as you're figuring out some of the mechanics of it. If you're looking for a paper trading account that does options, robinhood doesn't weeble, doesn't if you ever see options trading on those know that it's like legitimate, real options, training. The two that i know of that have paper. Training for options is td ameritrade and i believe interactive brokers does as well.

So that might be something that you're interested in uh. Do i think that the support crypto is funding means it is done, dropping uh. I don't know that your answer to that will be the cpi result on wednesday, if it's very, very hot, look for a sell-off, if it's not hot, look for it to bounce and rip hire weeble does too no, it doesn't. Weevil has a paper trade for stock, but not for options.

Paper trading, there's different, there's paper trading for stock and there's paper trading for options, paper trading for options, for whatever reason is more technologically difficult, so things like weeble, they have paper trading, but it's just for stock. It's not for options. Oh, you weren't wrong, been playing options for three years: oh well crush it bear mountain crush, it crush it crush it. What is this cult and what about thoughts? Club foot billy? Oh hey, don't go! Oh just so.

You know and i'll give you a quick reminder that we're going to be speaking of inflation and the implications of inflation and the fed meetings, and all that that will be the topic of discussion in the live stream after this one at 4, 30 on ttg's, fam Or ttg's stream, i will be there mike and i will be kind of breaking down our thoughts on all that stuff. Really, so let me drop it in there. Oh, i just dropped. The link on rumble just dropped the link on twitch, but once again this is at 4 30.

So, in about a half hour after i end this stream, we're gon na be going over and talking about, basically the fed, and basically it's going to be the conversation we'll send around what should we be looking for? What should we be listening for and depending on those results, what are some opportunities that would make sense to play so we're going to get everyone hopefully prepped up for the remainder of this week tonight. The stream is at 4, 30 and it'll be mike and myself all right, and what do we have going on man? Tesla is ripping me apart today. Ripping me apart thoughts on dwack 60 call for next week, uh dlac really hasn't been moving much. In my opinion, it's been kind of range bound on its daily chart.
I know there are some murmurs some rumblings about a rollout kind of coming soon, potentially in february. If there's any truth to that, if there's follow-up announcements, i i think that could prompt some excitement, but right now it seems like it's having a tough time getting above 60. So - and i just don't see much movement or volatility in like the it looks, pretty range bound looks kind of boring um. So i would want to see some like more momentum for me to play off of it all right campbell.

We have some serious gambling going on in twitch matt. Can you confirm the similarity from december 20th hammer candle to today's on the spy? It looks good following days: okay, so you're saying december 20th, an example of a hammer candle december 20th yeah. Actually, a lot of similarities, i mean this wicks even more so it kind of shows. Obviously, at the morning we had aggression and selling, and then we had an equal or more extreme amount of aggression in buying.

So, if you're, comparing this one right here, let me just mark this up, so this one. Why is it magnet like that this one compared to today's action, seeing quite a bit of similarity uh? Does that mean it has to behave like that? No, but also check this out kind of looks similar to this guy over here. Whatever day this is october 13th, a similar look similar vibe. We had a little bit of a bearish trend and then we come down and buy or step in a little bit of a bearish hymn, sell it off buy or step in bit of a bearish trend, sells off buyers step in actually the last time we saw These events, both of them we had a nice green push.

We had a very nice green push so with this one, it totally could play out that way and i think it will play out that way. If the cpi is below expectations, the party will not continue that way. In my opinion, if the inflation rate is coming in hotter than expected, someone said tesla news, tesla news, tesla news, tesla battery battery supplier, lg energy ends 11 eyes. An 11 billion dollar ipo unsupervised self driving will debut a new volvo.

Electric suv tesla shares near flat down 0.1 percent, but it is up now. Is that the news nicholas or am i missing out on something matt still time to transfer out of weeble? I think there is uh i've been using public for obviously my public, like the stocks that we talk about. So i don't know i think, they're, just a much better company they're, getting better execution quality you're, not engaging in payment for order flow. There's, no market makers.

If you're in the u.s and if you care about stock trading public doesn't have options trading, so if you have options trading, i would look at something like td or interactive brokers, but if you just care about stock trading, i think everyone should get on public public.com. Coors, it's free to sign up in fact, you'll get paid when you actually get on up to 70 dollars of free stock. When you get on it, i like it, i think, they're, a very, very transparent company. I like, what's going on there, the model y was approved for build in berlin.
Oh interest, interesting interesting, so this explains why i'm really getting messed up on tesla. Look at that like it's just it's just non-stop public denied me and i can't wait. Kyle did it say why i have a question. You have been in the market for years you claim, but how did you not know about payment for order flow until now you hear about it, but no one like the plumbing in your house.

No one really asks questions until it goes wrong payment for order flow and market structure. I mean - and this has been something that's previously been discussed by, like dave lauer p, that's not like a known, highly discussed thing. People are more focused on like the trades and making money, not necessarily market structure. There are people who have been in the market for their entire life and don't know anything about payment for order flow.

It's not that commonly discussed, that's kind of like a rarity of the current situation. Yeah right, you already know uh, i don't know. I don't think you know what you're talking about it's. It's a very, very small world of people that have like the expertise of market structure, to have thought out academic level, discussion of how our market plumbing should work, and it's one of those things that when people started talking about it, their eyes would just like glaze.

Over and people stopped listening because they just didn't care all right. Where are we at amc, nice, pop 20 to 60 amc, only down 38 cents on the day, jimmy's getting beat up a bit more uh. It is trying to fight back but jimmy's down. Eight percent uh, so i'd like to see it turn around in that tesla's, actually green uh.

So of course, the one that i buy puts on out of my watch list is pretty much like the only green one uh. Let's focus on getting synthetic shares out of the market too. This is a movement. The synthetic share thing is interesting because whether i don't know, i think, there's a lot of people overstating that, and not quite understanding like what they are or aren't saying.

Um, a lot of people are taking it, as fact of things that have just been assumed by other people, and they just state it enough times that they're like oh yeah. It has to be true because that person keeps saying it, so it never ever ever hurts to ask for a data source, never never ever ever, even if i say something um and you're like whoa. Okay, that sounds cool but like. Where did you get it from? Who did you get it from? Do you have any information to back it up? That's not bad! That's not like i don't know it shouldn't, be thought of as being offensive to ask for a data source or to act for additional verification.
There's too much of this, like trust me bro, i mean there are people who are known within this community that have not ever showed a single shred of evidence ever ever ever ever. There are people when they're wrong. They make videos that say they were wrong, but then they don't take down the original ones. It's you to me.

That's hyper dangerous, hyper, hyper, hyper dangerous and i think at a certain point you have to have a little bit more respect for your audience, your community, whatever you would consider them to be, especially when there's things that play like this, because it seems like there's more Of an emphasis on pandering to an audience rather than building a community, how do you know who is a trusted data source and doesn't have influence in one side or the other? I mean, i guess you just start to so. For example, i believe that dave lauer is a highly trustworthy data source. Well, why? Because he's worked in the industry and then how do i know he's on our side because he's testified in front of congress and uh certain, like senate committees, various times against citadel. So i guess you kind of look at people's track records uh.

Who do we have hey? We have someone, that's spamming, something uh. Where is he all these youtubers uh man? You already know what a weird account, but i'm kicking you just because you sound dumb, would you be paying attention to pelosi plays on tuesday and wednesday um? Unfortunately, you don't get any like it takes time to get it. So, for example, if pelosi or i should say pelosi's husband if he were to trade on tuesday or wednesday, technically, he has up to 45 days to report it and then from there. They technically have another 45 days for that information to be seen by us like to update those databases.

So it is the system we live in, it's completely above board for it to not show up for 90 days. Ideally, you could get it faster, but it's not like. You can track a politician in real time. It's always lagging by a bit david.

Can't stop won't stop zan gon na be gamestop there. It is shout out david, shout out david all right. We have that doped up dope, dopey dope dope dope all right lots of strength in the clothes lots of strength. We have five minutes a little over five minutes and we are seeing, like i mean look at this, we're gon na gap.

Fill talking about these gap fills what was the low uh 464 65. We have about. We had three cents to go, so we're almost getting this upside gap pill. This is a perfect example of sometimes how quickly gaps do get filled.

We gapped down below this today. We opened up at 460 270 and we went down even more, but then it fought back. It's about to gap, fill up, ding ding ding gap fill complete. That's a perfect example of the statistical advantage of playing gap fills uh.
Does it normally play out this quickly? Well, sometimes it does other times it doesn't, but that was a nice trade. If you took it right, there uh definitely congrats on that, so the spy gap filled the q's already gap-filled, seeing some strength. There iwm still has a little bit of a upside to go for its gap. Fill we can talk about what is it uh 215.93.

So basically, another dollar to a gap fell here on iwm amc was down kind of bouncing off. Of that would love to see the strength in a push above 24, 25, honestly. Well, obviously, the higher the better, but in the short term, a nice push and close above 25 would make me more comfortable, gamestop, unfortunately, getting beat up right now. I do like that.

It's above 130 that at least gives me a little bit of hope there. So hopefully this holds out but gamestop at this point to me it doesn't really matter anything that happens between now and the public's reaction to it officially dropping its nft marketplace. I like my position in gamestop, because i look at it as like an early investment into an nft marketplace, hopefully one that could become wildly wildly popular. So, if anything like, i guess i haven't really been too too interested in the intraday moves.

The minutia of these moves um on amc or gme, just because it's become like a medium to longer term hold, and i'm just like waiting for certain things to develop. For example, amc. I would love to see their next earnings report like so because of that. There's like just no way i'm going to get out right now, because i think that they're about to go positive, which would be awesome gamestop.

I want to know how everyone reacts to the nft marketplace. I want to see the nft marketplace go live so if anything, these moves right now, whether up down or sideways, doesn't matter. Of course i want it to the upside, but i think there's too many cool things on the horizon uh to even like think about pulling the rip cord right now. But that's just me, those are the things i'm watching if you agree with it.

That's awesome. I hope you enjoy the ride with me. If you don't hey good luck with whatever you decide to do amc daily hammer candle, we're seeing hammer candles in a lot of things today and a lot of things and that's good. That's like hammer candles are positive setups, but i think a lot of it is going to end up relating to wednesday like wednesday is the day tomorrow is like kind of this like awkward in between day we're going to see how things do or don't play out, But it's going to come down to wednesday diamond dallas.

Am i going to swing tesla yeah? I am at this point i mean with this if it opens above 1055 and it holds there tomorrow, i'll cut it and then just wait for the reaction on wednesday and play the reaction. But at this point i'll, i'm just gon na hold it. Why wednesday? That's when we get cpi the cpi data comes out an hour before the market opens the consumer price index. So it's our.
It gives us a better insight into inflation, i'm bullish on cannabis. Do you think it's better to invest in multiple etfs for a single etf or an individual company um? They all just have a different risk reward set up. I think it's reasonable uh, my etf, that i like in the cannabis industry is mj. I think that has good exposure.

If i had to pick a company, it would probably be tilray just because it has the most name recognition and it's technically the biggest company followed by cgc. I want to say those are number one and two i don't know if i would personally be interested in having multiple etfs like one etf is already a decent amount of exposure all right. What else do we have? What else do we have so whoa my clock on the bottom? Just went nuts very, very strong clothes people are buying like the last 15 seconds here, strong, strong clothes, three two one ding ding ding. The casino is closed.

That's it monday. January 10th is in the books. Well, this will set us up for to tomorrow i mean tomorrow's going to be an interesting day. Tomorrow is definitely not a day.

I would be creating positions for like any form of like a medium term trade b. Just because, like it's going to be a binary event about the cpi information being released on wednesday and on thursday, so tomorrow, it's kind of a day for maybe active traders who want to get in and close or, if you're feeling confident about what is or isn't Going on with inflation, if you think you have maybe an idea like you could play it off of that, but i'm just trying to like forewarn everyone that the second half of this week quite a bit of volatility. Now i wish i could tell you if that were to the upside. I wish i could tell you if that were to the downside.

I don't know no one knows i mean i'm sure, there's some people like in the government that already know the results, but the average person like us doesn't so we're gon na have to sit back and see how this stuff truly plays out. Now, as a quick reminder, don't forget in literally just half an hour in 29 minutes, i will be going on the ttg. The true trading groups live stream with mike and we're going to be discussing the fed and the various ways to think about it and particular opportunities. What to listen for what to watch for what? Basically, our thoughts on how to really be best prepared for this upcoming week.

I will, i think i have this all right. There is the link. Let me drop it in all the streams. Once again, we will be going live in less than half an hour.

Okay club for billy, i appreciate you posting that so that's going to be up in about 30 minutes. You could just follow that link. That would be cool if you just want to maybe get another person's opinion on it. I'm not saying what i'm saying is always expertly right.
There's a myriad of decisions out there that need to be made a myriad of opinions that are probably for one reason or another well-founded, depending on how you're viewing these things. So i think it's always good to take in multiple opinions whenever you have the opportunity to do so. Overall, thank you for your amazing support. I appreciate the likes.

I appreciate all the new subscribers welcome to the moon gang to the existing subscribers. Always always. Thank you. I'll catch you at 4 30, if you have the time to be there and as always for me and share best of luck in the market, you.


2 thoughts on “ep. 208 market fears return: don’t fight the fed”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Sub for cookie says:

    β€œFun Fact: we were all born at a very young age”.

    Have a cookie πŸͺ.

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jordan Ford says:

    Everyday that goes by the more I realize we are just at the beginning of this . Thanks to all the hard work and dedication that has been going into crypto market.

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