Be Prepared For Market Volatility (Inflation & The Fed)
Dumb Money w/ Matt Ep. 209
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Welcome welcome welcome. Of course, that means welcome to my basement where we're about to talk about stonks and the stonk market. It is tuesday january 11th and there's already some interesting news kind of breaking about. What's going on so we're going to be talking a little bit about robin hood, a little bit about citadel we're going to be talking about the fed uh.

We got some developments there today with jerome powell, we're going to be taking a look at the overall market. Yesterday we saw a beautiful bounce, a b e, a beautiful bounce in tech. Well, it was beautiful if you were in it, i was betting against it to hedge, my portfolio so that that that wasn't the most fun. But anyway, if you were long on it, it was a beautiful bounce.

I hope you absolutely crushed it. So the name of the game today is: is the bounce gon na hold and we're gon na get some clearly we're gon na get some volatility. We got an inflation report coming out wednesday. We got an inflation report coming out thursday.

We have some earnings on friday and, of course, today, starting at 10 a.m. Set your alarms, because we're just gon na have volatility. 9. 30.

A market open 10 a.m. We have the senate panel. That's going to be reaffirming jerome powell they're going to be growing him about questions. Is he too hawkish? Is he too dovish? What's going on, what's going on with the tapering? What's going on with inflation? What's going on with the basically the balance sheet normalization, how many rate hikes so so many questions and all that all of that really centered on this week, i honestly believe it's going to set the tone for the remainder of the entire corridor uh.

It's a very, very exciting week, it's a week that we should all be paying attention to to get a better idea of how things are going to be structured. Are we going to be supported by tailwinds, or are we going to be running into headwinds so so so much going on and with all that going on, i should be switching over, so we can dive into it. So we have a better idea of what is going to go down so, as you can see right here, a little bit of a mixed bag in terms of color like just a little christmas, vibe red, green red, green, just went gray, but as you can see, They're all pretty much actually flat, very, very close, unchanged, almost zero. Almost zero oil is up a little bit yields pretty much zero, so don't get! I guess confused by the colors here, pretty much the futures market.

It's it's very, very flat right now, everyone's waiting, this kind of makes sense. If we all think about it, everyone's waiting to see how this plays out everyone's saying: okay, is the inflation going to be hot? How hawkish is jerome powell going to be? Is he can have any commentary on the fomc meeting minutes that came out when they were talking about balance sheet normalization? Everyone is waiting waiting waiting. This is not the day where i would like preemptively make a massive trade that i know is going to be like a medium-term swing trade. It's just not that kind of a day right now, you're in and out, quick or if you're doing a longer term bet.
You might want to go with smaller size because we're you might get lucky and the volatility might lead to an expansive move in your favor or you might be unlucky like me, as always with tesla but anyway. Besides the point, let's move on to the next thing: five things to know before the stock market opens tuesday, wall street looks higher after monday's major tech, stock, rebound and boy. Oh boy was it so ever since january, 4th the nasdaq 100 - and if you don't know about this, it's tracked by the etf exchange trade to fund the queues qqq, and this it has a lot of exposure to some of the most well-known tech stocks. Out of these 100, the nasdaq 100 - that's actually sometimes a little bit more, but anyway, they about 50 percent are like straight up.

Tech plays. So it's a good idea to understand. What's going on with tech or another way to say that, what's going on in this high growth, sometimes higher risk sector, so we gapped down yesterday on friday, we closed at 379.86 and then we opened up below that at 374 and at first things were hairy. They were red, we were coming down to support and it actually bounced off of that and it continued to rip for the remainder of the day.

By that time we hit 11 a.m or 12 p.m. We just started buyers just started pouring in pouring in pouring in pouring in and now the question is: is this actually gon na mark the pivot? Are we gon na finally get uh? I guess for lack of a better terminology like? Is it just gon na be this base and we're going right off of it, or was this day just more of like a random fluke and we're gon na get crushed by the inflation report tomorrow? I wish i could tell you i wish i knew the future and i could advise everyone on what to do, but i don't at a certain point when it comes to the market. There is some aspects of luck involved unless you're a perfect political insider trader, and then you already know everything you need to know, but for us most likely all of us watching right now shout out to the citadel intern, who is forced to watch us by the Way, congrats on your company's new funding, uh we'll be going into that. But anyway, the question now is: is this gon na hold? Yes, there's a very baby gap down right now, so let's just call it flat and we're gon na see where the big money is flowing early this morning.

But i just want to call this out. Goldman's david costen says a tech. Disconnect is the single greatest mispricing in u.s stocks, a tech stock d rating likely has further to go according to goldman sachs chief u.s equity, strategist, david costen. Now i find this to be a little bit weird because yesterday goldman said: hey we're seeing at least four rate hikes, but then another one at goldman was saying: hey, i'm a fancy quankai, we should buy this dip and then you have this guy saying tech is Super overvalued and he's seeing a d rating in the future.
So i don't know if people were not invited to the right, zoom calls or something at goldman, but clearly clearly we're getting some form of a disconnect because we're getting some mixed signals for sure from goldman's office. U.S tech sold off sharply in the first week of the year, taking the nasdaq 100 into correction territory. Briefly, on monday, before rallying to a snap a four day, losing streak, analysts broadly expect 2022 to be a rough year for high growth tech names that benefited from ultra loose monetary policy necessitated by the rona pandemic. As the stimulus unwinds.

What in the world does that mean? Basically, ever since we hit march april of 2020, the market went down supply chain issues, people weren't working, we didn't know what was going on. Things were not good, so that means that our federal reserve and attempting to like do what they could and for price stability and keeping unemployment low. They were as quantity or they were as accommodative as they possibly could have been, and this is known as being very dovish and it's basically quantitative easing q e. Now that that's all great that's good.

It's a great way to keep unemployment low. It's a great way and that's not really their main direction to keep stocks higher. That is like a byproduct of it, but basically money became super easy. So much money was going into the system yeah, it starts to devalue the dollar, but interest rates were low.

Is easy to get loans, it's just a very accommodative environment and the byproduct was the market going higher and higher and higher and higher? Well, when you do that for too long, especially as long as we've done him remember so much money's coming in that devalues the whatever current money you already had in the system prior to that - and this is known as inflation and obviously you're, just devaluing your own Dollar, in our case, the fiat currency, the u.s dollar. Well, obviously, there were many companies, because the overall market did very well, but particularly tech was a big beneficiary of all of this and a lot of tech stocks continued to rip higher and higher and higher. Well, now we're in an overall macro economic environment where they need to undo that position, and that's exactly why this particular week, i'm harping on what's going on with inflation, because if it comes in hot and they have to go even more hawkish because six months ago, They weren't even talking about rate hikes. We knew they had to start tapering, but they definitely weren't talking about balance sheet normalization.

So you bring this all together. Now the federal reserve's gone from dovish quantitative, easing super good for stocks and the overall growth of the economy, and now they have to go to quantitative tightening q t not qe, it's the exact opposite, and then this is one of their tools really to battle. It's their main tool to battle inflation and when you do that, not the best for a lot of these typical high growth tech plays. But there are some things if, if you think it's going to play out this way, i don't know how it's going to play out, but i'm just doing my best to explain how i see things currently really behaving.
If you think we are going this way of multiple, three plus four plus rate hikes, the companies that are going to benefit a lot about off of this will be banks and that's kind of interesting, because we have a handful of big important banks, all reporting, their Earnings this friday so it'll be interesting to kind of get their take on really how things are going to play out for the upcoming year senate panel to consider powell's re-nomination as fed chief. This starts at 10 a.m. Today, also it's not just jerome powell, but they'll. Also be talking about brainerd, she will be up for the fed governor uh.

She was the one that people were like. Oh is she gon na kind of dethrone powell here but uh she was not picked. Obviously he was re-picked, so the senate panel will be grilling him today, speaking of which um a little bit. I don't know if you caught the story on right here, the fed vice chairman richard clarida, so he had some really sus trades back in february.

Basically, it seemed like he was trading right before some serious federal reserve news was coming out and there were a swath of them. We actually had rosengreen and then also kaplan uh, so both of these guys resigned and then this is the third guy who just resigned. I believe his last day will be like the end of this week, so you have three different people involved with the fed that all recently had to resign for, like super suspect trades, they were, they were trading on what they knew the fed was about to do, And because of this, they actually stop federal chairmen like at any level from being able to trade and, at a certain point, how is that not just a rule for all of our federal judges? How is that not a rule for all of our elected officials? Uh, the federal reserve, obviously there it was being abused and which is not good, but i am happy that they're attempting to fix it. Jerome powell came out and said: okay yep, no more trading, because people are being insidious, but that's what's going on.

There kind of interesting and speaking of the fed fed vice chairman clarida to step down early following scrutiny over his trades during the pandemic. So just for a little bit more of information of what he actually did uh clarida said monday, he will be leaving his post. This friday, shortly before his term, would have been expired. The resignation comes following more questions into stock fund trades for clarita in february 2020.

You know like a month before, like look at that timing february 2020. That is absolutely nuts. Now. Is this a step in the right direction? It is.
Does this meet many of our moral codes for being a proper? I guess solution. No, he he's just resigning and that's it he's whatever that's it. This is the extreme amount of his punishment. It's a youtuber! It's a rumbler, it's a twitter, it's people who write cnbc articles, it's journalists, it's just people, pointing out that he is stepping down he's keeping the money from those trades he's not getting in trouble with law enforcement.

There's actually no like true fallout to it. Besides, this rich guy lost his rich guy job for a reason he should, but there's like trust me if you were trading on this type of information that wasn't publicly available. If i was trading on this type of information that was public not publicly available, we would be talking to the sec. We might be talking to the doj.

We would have some very uncomfortable conversations and if they didn't go the right way, you would be looking at masses, fines and potentially jail. There's no question about it that this guy obviously got off easy. All three of them got off easy. It's just this stuff is absurd and i'm happy that more and more people are finally paying attention to it, but it's just insane: it needs to be resolved.

Gamestop has had a wild ride in a year since meme stock craze began. I mean that's kind of obvious we've been watching it day in and day out, we're coming up almost on, like the one year birthday anniversary celebration event of all this nut stuff really playing out, i mean you could see just how wild it went. The i i suppose in a certain way, the anniversary of the buy button being stolen from us, speaking of which talking about this buy button a 27 year old truck driver just became robin hood's, first big headache of 2020. This is an awesome awesome story.

I will be covering it. I promise you in more detail in the afternoon stream, i kind of want to create some extra stuff for it and explain it and tie some things together, and i just want to give it the time that it truly deserves. This is a very, very big deal and i think it's opening a serious legal issue, a continuation of legal issues for robin hood, very cool article. You can find it on marketwatch, but, like i said, i want to go into more detail about that in the afternoon stream.

Today, average daily rona cases are up 50 over the past week, so we're coming in at an average of three quarters of a million, and yesterday alone there was 1.4 million. This type of stuff clearly can have an impact on the market. I just want to call it out to all of you. You can have your own political opinions, but i hope you are being safe and healthy and also remember this type of stuff, clear, clear impact on the market and finally, there's a new number one ranking for america's top esg stocks, so esg, environmental, social and governance, metrics And actually, apparently the number one one is: google aka alphabet, uh microsoft was up there, but i did find this one meta, also known as facebook, which dropped nearly 700 spots this year within the total universe of a thousand.
So, apparently, in terms of environmental, social and governance, metrics meta, aka, facebook taking a freaking nose dive, but when it comes to social and governance, it kind of makes sense that we're not ranking facebook. That high i mean they've had a litany of issues over the past calendar year that i think, would kind of cause its own ranking to seriously plummet. So speaking of other companies and earnings, we are kicking off earnings season this friday. So if you haven't heard of earning seasons before it's just basically when a lot of big, well-known important to the overall economy, companies start reporting how they did in the previous fiscal quarter.

It's their earnings report and we get a lot of them all together. So this friday is day one we kick off with big banks, which are going to be so important when you're talking about interest rate hikes. What's going on with inflation, the overall economy very, very important so thursday before the market opens delta, probably a worthwhile one to pay attention to but friday the show begins: jp morgan city wells, fargo, blackrock and first republic bank. Clearly we're getting reports from a lot a lot of banks.

It will be beyond interesting to know what they are or not going to say about these interest rates and inflation they're going to be signaling to us their thoughts, and it's going to be worthwhile to pay attention to some of the headlines and commentaries that come out Of all these, but once again that's all before the market opens on friday very quickly, crypto. Finally, seeing some green crypto's been pretty beat up lately, but if you check out coin 360, we have green green, green, green, green, green, green, green. It's been a bit of time before we finally had all of that green, so that's nice to see it coming back in. Obviously i will talk more about this in the crypto show.

Oh that reminds me uh before we move on to all that other stuff, that i want to dive into a question for all of you, and i should probably make a poll i made a poll. Okay, the poll is on twitter. Actually, i would love for all of you to vote um what comes as a surprise to me uh. So i've been running the crypto show, and i like it to me.

It was kind of obvious, because both gamestop and amc are heavily in crypto. Crypto represents an amazing financial opportunity. It's a great thing to learn it's a great thing to know about culturally, socially and from a technology perspective, but i've still noticed that with the crypto show, there's a lot of confusion, because the cryptic show is from 2 to 2 30 and they're like well. Why is he not talking about stocks right now, so i don't like.
I want to cut down on this confusion, so i did this poll. I would love for you to vote on it and the question is: do you want me to spin off the crypto content as a separate channel? So basically i would just do a different channel and all the crypto stuff would live there. If you want the krypto stuff, if you like the crypto stuff great, that's for you, but if the crypto content doesn't interest you at all. Well, i don't want you to like have to like always scroll through and be like.

Okay, i don't like this. I don't like this like so i was thinking about making like the main channel, the classic stock stuff, the manipulation, corruption, insider trading and then just kind of spin off like a crypto course channel for anyone who's interesting. But i figured the the separation the segmentation might like. I'm just attempting to cut down on confusion is my overall goal and it seems like it is prompting confusion um.

So i just wanted to ask all of you and if you could just throw in a vote there, i'm just trying to get as many people to vote. As you can see it's it's actually kind of neck and neck. I thought there would be like i didn't know which was going to win, but i thought it'd be more obvious um i don't know so i just want to throw that out there, but yeah we'll be talking about crypto stuff later so news that was breaking this Morning, citadel securities announces a 1.15 billion investment from sequoia and paradigm. Now this is interesting for various reasons.

So, if you look at paradigm, it's all related to crypto, it's a big crypto based vc firm like it. It clearly relates to crypto and why it's interesting is because ken griffin liking crypto to being unamerican like like. I find this super super weird, because paradigm is all about crypto web 3 and like that world of just literally the crypto world. That's exactly where that one has its expertise and its money and citadel outspokenly against it.

But now that they're taking money from it and then if you look into sequoia, that's another vc firm and that's very, very well known for bringing other companies public like a lot of just taking private companies to the public market. And this is very interesting. So now i'm like okay, are they doing it individually or like? Do they just want to be able citadel securities, the market maker and then citadel the hedge fund? Do they want the ability to bring people public and now they're getting into crypto, or are they trying to bring crypto companies public like? Are they using them together and this 1.15 billion dollar investment? Do they need that liquidity is something going on there? Why, or is this just like kind of a pay-to-play thing, but once again, all this information just coming out today feel free to check it out. It's on citadel security's, like official website they did announcement.
You can read it here, so we have crypto web three. We have stuff about the ipos and all the previous people. They've worked with uh sequoia, more than 25 percent of nasdaq's total value. That's the sequoia back companies.

So these are. These are big big players and i find it interesting that they are handing over in totality 1.15 billion to citadel uh. It's one of those things that we're seeing an increase in power, uh the concentration of power for sure noteworthy noteworthy, noteworthy all right. So i just wanted to bring that up to you very quickly.

We can look through the charts, but i guess before that, hang on what are we looking at start crypto at three? What time would be most convenient? Obviously we have the morning show show, and then we also have uh. We have the morning show, and then we have the power hour show so, barring that nine to 11 and three to four segment. What would be the most ideal time for all of you for the crypto show right now, it's like two to two thirty, but uh. If there is or isn't a time, that's like the most convenient more than happy to grill a champ.

Keep it super simple. Do not overthink your marketing well, i thought it was actually more simple that way, because it just became like to me that was a a d complication um, so if this would exclusively impact the world of youtube, if you're happy on rumble, if you're happy on twitch, Literally, you have to do nothing all that same content, uh, it's just the way. Things are particularly segmented on youtube, but if, once again, if you're on rumble, you don't have to worry anything about it, if you're on twitch, you don't have to worry about it whatsoever. This won't impact you, but i just thought it was like okay, this channel's for crypto this channel is for stocks type of a deal like.

I thought it was opposed to like on one channel they're like well. What's he talking about like is he talking about? Crypto? Is he talking about stocks? Is he talking about manipulation? I thought it was an effort to decomplicate it, but once again this exclusively impacts. You uh, if you uh choose to watch on youtube, but the other ones you're. Fine, three am don't f with power, not f'ing.

With power hour uh, when are you moving over to rumble we're on rumble um it? The rumble thing isn't in exclusivity like we're just rumble's gon na be our home, and it's just because, and it blows my mind that other creators are not taking the time to um ensure the safety of their own community because, as i have proven as tmi has Proven you can get terminated for literally no reason: um rumble's, never gon na be and like it's, not an exclusivity thing. Rumble's our home, but we're gon na always continue posting the content everywhere, rumble youtube and twitch. I don't know what i said in the announcement that confused some people - i think most people understood it, but there were some people that thought i was saying. I'm only going to be on rumble.
I never said that and more importantly than not saying it, it's just not what's going to happen, i'm gon na continue to live stream on rumble youtube and twitch simultaneously on all of them. Rumble is just we're with them, because we're guaranteed to not lose our voice. Youtube, we don't have that guarantee twitch. We do not have that guarantee.

So, in return for that out of the fact that they're like talking to us and we're going to help them form their live streaming community over there and it's an awesome platform and it's really cool to be in the driver's seat of some of these decisions. Uh. They like actually treat us with like the respect and dignity that i think our community does and, like i said earlier, i'm very very surprised that other creators aren't paying attention to this and they're willing to take on the risk of censorship. Like that's putting a lot of eggs in one basket, all right: where are we okay? So the spy baby gap down cues, baby gap down and iwm, actually a slight gap up um? Now we have kind of a double gap situation.

Is it gapping up to the low, so we have a little gap in general that might be worthwhile to pay attention to. But what is that? 2? 15 93. So, overall, not much movement and to me this really does track because everyone is kind of waiting to see how things play out. Let's take a quick peek at amc.

22. 42. So we had a nice bounce, but then it came right back down. We are making a pattern of lower highs, there's no way to sugarcoat that that is not good uh.

You don't want like. That means we're just in a bear trend. We've been in a bear trend. Um, i would argue well at first it wasn't.

We were in this consolidation pattern, but then this breakdown we have been making lower highs ever since june 18th. So, at a certain point, we're just hoping that the buying aggression outweighs the selling aggression and we can get this equilibrium aka the price, pushing higher and hopefully breaking the pattern and seeing those new highs. Just so you know the estimated short interest is 17.75 percent, and let's take a look at gme. Jimmy had a really solid day.

On friday, at least, the opening after the wall street journal had that article about okay, like it was becoming more of a mainstream idea that they are getting into this nft platform, which we've already been discussing and have known about for a while. The mainstream media was definitely a little slow on that one, but it got beat up on friday yesterday we once again found the support at this 120 level. You're we're looking for that to hold. We definitely don't want that breakdown.

Um 120 is serious support. We do not want to see gamestop going below that and we particularly don't want to see it closing below it. That would be the equivalent level, i would say, with amc around 20ish. These are key levels of support that i just fingers crossed.
Hope buyers are stepping up to and holding that they are support, so there's a good shot for me. Personally, just you know uh in addition to my own portfolio. Obviously, when those things occur, i will let you know, but i hey, if i see a deal, if i like something and i can shop on discount, why would i not take that so i'll be closely closely monitoring those two i have some alerts set on my Phone um just around key levels that i find interesting to increase my own position all right, so let me just quickly check bitcoin kind of flap and once again fine, we did have a little bit of green. I was looking at some of the decentraland stuff.

A little bit beat up wondering if i could buy there loop ring hanging out at a dollar fifty, i think lrc and gamestop upon the official announcement of their partnership and the official launch of the gamestop nft platform. I think that's going to do both are going to do pretty. Well, i mean it's all but officially announced at this point: um ethereum back above 3000 and went a little bit below it for a bit that was kind of rough. But let's see how this all plays out, we have about a minute and a half, which means i need to get my charts ready, update on the td portfolio.

Yes, so i still have those same mu calls. The micron calls i haven't switched at all. I haven't increased or deducted from the position um hang on. Let me just actually get it up.

I did not open td, yet whoa. What's going on with my screen um, so i still have the same micron calls and then i also have tesla 950 puts for this friday. I maybe i'm being a bit of a negative nancy, but i'm not feeling the best about how this inflation report is going to come out tomorrow. It is at my risk level like right now, so i'm going to see how it holds this morning if it starts to push once again today, i'd rather take this medium-sized loss than a potentially like devastating loss, so we're gon na see how this all actually plays Out but let's get ready, let's get ready, hang on trying to just get this.

Where are we at? We have 10 seconds five. Four, three, two one ding ding ding, the casino is open. Let's get after it remember, stick to your training plan, whatever that is. I beg of you to stick to it all right, all right, all right, amc with a nice push, let's throw up gme just for a second, i want to see kind of the volume and very quickly the spy.

Let's throw up the spy daily watching 465, where it is right now and then 462 and some change, let's see how it all plays out while we're waiting these first 10. 15. 20 30 minutes for it to open um. Please! If there's any questions more than happy to answer uh, there is a couple: things has nothing to do with buyers.

Nobody is selling straight manipulation. That's just simply not true. Every buyer has a seller. Every seller has a buyer.
Why is my chart losing its mind odd, but that's how markets work for there to be a buyer and a transaction? Every transaction is a buyer and a seller. You don't buy from the ether you don't sell into the ether, that's just how it works. That's how literally every market ever established works in this world um there's not this just random group of stocks that could be bought or a random group of stocks that could be sold like you're, finding another willing participant uh. Mr mr fun, you are not correct on this there's no way if, if someone, okay, let's put it this way, let's think about this.

If someone wasn't on the other side of the trade, how would any? How would the deci? How would the price ever be decided like you if you're just buying it from no one, then where, where is the price decided in that it doesn't really uh dude? Your tip boy lad is on too. Do i give your brain some oxygen? Mr mr fun, you tell me uh, i am telling you every buyer has a seller. Every seller has a buyer there's no way it would. It's mtb greg has a good point.

It's called trading, oh man, so market makers can pump synthetics into the market. That's that's. Also true, they can, but still the market makers the other side of the trade uh. If the discussion is, are they selling you something that they shouldn't be selling you? Well, that's a that's a completely different point, but there's they're still the player on the other side of the trade there's.

It takes two people to trade uh to engage in a trade. Every every trade has a willing buyer and a willing seller um all manipulation. Um. Mr mr fun, i feel like you're just a person who's, i don't know not really in the community.

There was another piece of uh, i guess confusion. I want to clear up that i saw some people were saying that covering is not the same as shorts closing they are literally synonymous when you say a short is covering you mean a short is closing. Those are the exact same terms. It's two different ways to say the same thing.

If, if i were to say like stock xyz, the shorts closed, you could perfectly say: stock xyz, the shorts covered shorts covering and shorts closing are synonymous. They mean the exact same thing. It's two different words that mean it's two different words that mean the exact same thing. You do not have to take my statement on this.

To be the gospel truth, you can check with investopedia. You can check with fidelity. You can check with a google dictionary definition of shorts covering or if shorts, closing they're going to tell you. They are the exact same thing covering i understand, with the name and the terminology it can kind of get confusing with like oh okay like do they have the collateral and is the collateral, the covering part um, and i i get that naming confusion right there and I think if anything, they could have probably come up with a better name, but, alas, where we are in the system right now, when you say a short is covering or a short is closing, you mean the exact same one as the other.
They can be used interchangeably all right. So what is going on with gamestop gamestop gamestop gamestop? What volume are we at 126 000? It is just not getting the volume that it really needs. Uh tesla trying to go green. Do we buy calls, i mean i'm still babying.

These puts that i have, and maybe i'm just being dumb and emotional. At this point i don't know i'm i i think tech is getting overvalued as we're heading into the senate panel today in 25 minutes and the inflation report coming out tomorrow, this is the equivalent of like flipping a coin. I would suppose uh a coin flip of okay, i'm betting on inflation coming in hot, if i'm right, the market's gon na drop, and this will help hedge, my overall portfolio, if i'm wrong, i'm gon na lose a serious amount of money on it. Um all the confusing means they accomplished what they wanted to do.

Uh. But, mr mr fun, you you seem to be the only one that is confused. I think everyone else is like okay, yeah shh, like every buyer, has a seller. Every seller has a buyer.

That's literally, what trading is um, the other people are like they kind of get it. I feel i don't know if there's more confusion about it, let me let me know, i'm happy to talk about it, but this is. This is one of those things that this isn't like a a contentious, hot topic thing like anyone who really knows about the market knows like it kind of works. That way the biggest misconception the whole play is people, not understanding all players.

You have day and swing players, hedge funds and market makers, big banks also yeah and uh. That's a very good point biolifehemp and that's uh. I think i was even discussing it yesterday of why it's not good to think of our counter party as like a monolith, and it's because exactly like that, you have high frequency traders who are in and out literally before you can blink. You have big banks who are going to take longer term positions holding for many months.

Potentially many years. You have hedge funds, who are going to look at multiple weeks, potentially multiple quarters. You have hedge funds that are going to hedge in different scenarios, they're going to use the options market, they might use going long and going short, they might be a long, only fund, a short fund, a mixture of the two like there's the people who were against Or even really the people who are supportive of us, they come in so many different. Like styles, i i guess is the best way styles of engaging with the market, to simply think that we're like exclusively going against like a fund who is short on it, like they simply just went short um.

That is like too too simple for what the overall system actually is. I think he's saying: algos trading back and forth with ladder attacks. Reddit is a ladder attack possible. Yes, is it at all happening with the same occurrence? That reddit would have you believe, absolutely not uh.
These short ladder attacks are one of the most tinfoil hatty things going on in this community uh. I'm not sitting here saying that they're impossible, like i, i understand, theoretically how it would happen, but they would happen in very. Very specific scenarios such as you'd have to have low volume. If there's high volume at all, it would be very, very difficult to like pull that off, so you would want to have low volume and you would probably want a different.

I guess, restriction upon the market, so a short ladder attack. The attempt is to bring the market down, bring an equities price down, like that's the overall goal. Well, why would you short ladder attack instead of straight up short when the utilization isn't maxed out, because remember when you short ladder attack you buy at a price and then you sell at a lower price, as in you know, you're losing money and you're doing that Continuously, losing money losing money losing money losing money. You would only do that in the most like specific, unique circumstances, and even in those circumstances you would have to have a low volume environment.

So if the utilization is not maxed out, they would just short attack. They would literally just short like they would just say: oh i'm, going to sell this stock opposed to buying selling buying selling buying selling, like you would literally just straight up short the stock. So, for me to ever ever think that a short ladder attack would have to be occurring. We would either have to be on ssr, the utilization or the utilization would have to be maxed out, and it would have to be a low volume environment and you would have to be seeing a spike in dark pool trading because remember if you're trying to find Another trader, you wouldn't want to do that on a lit exchange like if you're particularly trying to find another hedge fund, another bank, something along those lines like if you're engaging in the market and going out of your way to find a particular counterparty.

You would want to do it on a dark pool where you know: that's the only other person in the dark pool. You would never pull it off on like a lid exchange, because you don't know who the other side of the trade is, i'm all in. On amc going over 1k by this time in 2023, i have 930 shares. I have 5k left to invest, i'm willing to lose i'm going to maximize profits in the cheapest way.

Thus, i want to do a 145 call for january 2023. Good idea, i mean, if that's what your goal is like, that would be a way to maximize it, but i guess i would be more curious in your reasoning for it like how'd, you come up with that price point associated with that time frame uh. They never cleared their puts from last year puts expire, it's impossible to not clear it. There's an expiration date with those contracts.
What else do we have naked shorting um is a much more reasonable, believable explanation to me, mr mr fun, i'm agreeing with you on this one naked shorting is a far more believable methodology and reasonable methodology than a short ladder attack. Uh, a short ladder attack is literally something that was just said on reddit, like you, can even see it like. If you look up the term short ladder attack the google search trends, it just spiked after someone wrote about it on reddit like this, is not a um discussed thing really within the world of wall street the technical implications of pulling it off kind of shows how Much of a rarity, it would truly be now once again, i'm not saying it's impossible. I understand, theoretically how it could be pulled off, but with that you have to have a very, very specific situation and unless you're on ssr or unless the utilization is extremely high, you just know it's not happening.

How are synthetics created? There would be two main ones for this discussion of: how is a synthetic created, a synthetic i'm assuming you mean a a fake share. Uh afford shares a share that should not exist um. So, let's take it. I i think the best way to do it is to split it up into two different ways.

You have one way of market makers in another way, with brokers or potentially prime brokers, so one of them is: let's take the prime broker, one first so say: you're a hedge fund. You call up your prime broker and you're like hey. I want to short this stock and they're like okay cool and the prime broker is obviously trying to get the business of this hedge fund. So they're, like yeah cool, go short a million shares like and they lit them short like the broker executes that trade and they actually have up because we aren't we're on a two-day settlement cycle.

They have up to those two days to locate those shares, but if they don't it becomes a naked short position because there was never stock that actually properly accounted for it. So that's important um. That would be one way to make it short another way to do. It is from market makers, because remember, market makers are a specialized high frequency trader, a specialized hft and they um a lot of their job is to provide liquidity, and then they end up profiting by playing the difference between the bid and the ask like they're trying To capture that spread, but anyway, so think of market makers as a very specialized high frequency trader.

So because of this, they have a different set of regulations, a different set of rules, and they are allowed to sell you stock that they don't actually have, as in they're selling you stock that doesn't exist and if that balance gets too wonky in one way. Well, that just means that they flooded the market and they bloated supply. So if, in the most general definition of a synthetic share, if you're just using a share that like shouldn't, exist, well, that would be one right there um, you could probably get into more funky ones with like the options market. If we really think about it like if people are exercising stock or if they're exercising calls and then the shares are transferred, but if the original party never had those shares, then it kind of comes up to well.
How did they come up with those shares? Then? Um, so there are probably other ways to talk about it, but i would say the two main ones, the main one being market makers and then the secondary one being through prime brokers uh. Why is this not working cappuccino days and sangria nights thanks matt for holding the moon gang together? Hey, i just very much care about this community um. I think other people are exclusively in this for an audience and those people, their their time is limited. Their time is limited, your your second would be a naked share, not a naked short uh.

I haven't heard the term naked share so naked shorting, so in in the world of stocks, when you hear naked, that just means you didn't have either the underlying what you didn't have the underlying thing that you were supposed to have. That could mean capital like so if you have a naked put, that means you don't have the underlying cash in your account that you're supposed to have. If you have a naked call, that means you don't have the underlying stock in your account that you're supposed to have in the world of stocks naked just means you don't have the underlying thing that you're supposed to have so when it comes to shorting. That means that you're supposed to have the underlying stock, because you're you're legally supposed to be borrowing it from someone.

So if it's a naked short, that means that you went short without having the underlying borrow that was necessary for you to have i've never heard of a naked share. I've heard of naked calls naked puts naked shorts. You really couldn't have, i guess, a naked long. I've never heard of that one, but when it comes to the world of markets - and you hear the word naked, just think of the fact that you didn't have the underlying thing you were supposed to have - typically either the equity or the money um reverse repeals.

Being this high is a bad sign for the economy. However, it comes to no surprise the community of gamestop shareholders over six months ago. Our research predicted this reverse repos - reverse repos, has literally nothing to do with gamestop reverse repos has to do with the federal reserve and the treasury reverse repos. Is them trying to take money back out because they put so much money into it all right? Where else are we at crypto sucks, we need a relationship, advice, channel monetary and views wise.

If you want to make more, keep up this channel just have more distinct thumbnail for viewers yeah, but see my goal isn't to i mean if i wanted to make more money, i would keep crypto on this channel uh. My goal is not, i guess, like a financial one of making more money. My goal is to make like the best content i possibly can for an audience a community, that's interested. Where else are we at uh? I can't watch rumble with the same guy spamming stream.
The whole time with nonsense all right having timed messages, yeah we're gon na kick this guy. Let me figure out how to do this. My first axing on rumble what it, what a fun time, what a fun time whoops all right! Yeah, let's get them out of here, and i know that they are actually working on this, for, like moderation, abilities in rumble we're waiting for that to roll out in the near future. All right! Where are we at today, so the spy not holding the bounce that we saw yesterday, but also remember yesterday? What had happened? Was it sold off until roughly 11 a.m and then it just bounced for the rest of the day? So it's like not it's not really.

As if you have to see green at the start for it to be green all day, thus far we're getting a little bit hit. But i would like to point out how there is very clear: bullish, divergence, the spy roughly the same low here. But look at the rsi, there was less bearish momentum. The second time around you are seeing some buyers um stepping in a little bit more aggressive, pretty much the same thing on the qs iwm.

Having a very, very nice bounce 213 attacked it five separate times. We get a higher rsi beautiful bounce there. Your next watch is 214.50 amc. It's pushing it's just, there's nothing to really say about it.

It's looking very, very good. Let's just let this keep cruising higher uh gme kind of range bound, the volume of 278 000. We have amc with a volume of 4.7 million, thus far, not horrifically low, but both on the lower side of volume. So i think if they keep, can push higher, you might see some volume and excitement flow into them.

Prague hanging out at 190, okay volume, lucid with a very nice push there we're seeing some abnormal strength, the continuation of strength in lucid rivian. It was down in pre-market. I believe the coo stepped away from the company. People didn't really like that uh tesla, getting this bounce off of 142-ish apple hanging out at 172 amd trying to push back up to 134.

corsair same level, pretty much as always just below 21. microsoft looks like it's trying to make a move right here. Look for that breakout at 313 on microsoft. That's a nice chart, that's actually a cup handle.

It is on a smaller time frame but microsoft, showing some strength. Micron, pushing nvidia, trying to swing back roadblocks up to 88 snow just below 300. robinhood. Is that a new all-time low this morning? No, the all-time low was yesterday at what level is this uh 1475 robin hood? Getting smoked bouncing a little bit off of it, but still not the best situation for robin hood, but it makes sense because it's a crappy company, all right.
Where are we shout out kinky kong uh? She is saying to everyone join her mural on twitter, okay, yeah. So if you don't know about uh kind of uh, kinky kong's, like pretty cool like art, you can find her on twitter and you can send in your picture and you'll, be a part of like the overall ape mural c-l-r-o does not seem that interesting, really um. It sold off a little bit, range bound broke down and now it's still been range bound, it's at the top of the range, but i don't know if it's going to break out this. It's just not a trending stock um, it's just kind of it's not trending.

It's just flat, so it seems a bit boring, uh zng. So this one is uh. It's getting acquired uh. Take two interactive is buying out zynga zanga.

However, you say it um, so the announcement was already made. Typically, you don't want to buy in on the news. Usually you buy the rumor and you sell the news, so i think a lot of people are just taking this massive markup and they're locking in i wouldn't be chasing a gap up. That's just not my style, it might work out well for you and i hope it does, but i personally wouldn't be going in because it's now already priced in, we already have the details of the acquisition, so it's probably priced accordingly rely reli still looking good.

Let me look up. I have no relie just so everyone knows uh, but i do find it fun to watch. Let me look up the short interest for you on reli yesterday it was like at 56 percent, reli, 63.45 reli uh. Definitely getting an increase.

Utilization 96 shares on loan 2.35 million costs to borrow 358 wild wild wild wild the spy not holding currently uh. So i called out 362 it's about 25 cents away from that um if it doesn't hold that we are then back to watching 4 58. But just so you know in five minutes, the senate panel starts uh. Amc gme having a good day, have no issue keeping them up when they are having a good day, lucid, also, apparently having a good day lucid uh.

As of now, i have no lucid position, but if you're in loosened seriously, congratulations you're, crushing it all right, shout out karthik cappuccinos all day, all day all day. Where are we all right? Let's see the next level of resistance for amc. Oh this one's kind of an easy one. 25.

I mean a little bit of a hiccup, maybe in the low 24s, but i particularly care about 25. Currently trading at 23.38. Up 2.6 percent on the day 25 would be definitely noteworthy. Definitely noteworthy.

The hammer candle on amc is a nice one. I agree um yesterday a little bit of a baby hammer candle but playing out well, and i just if we can break above the high from january 7th and then this clear level of support in the low 25s uh. That's showing me some strength and then from there that's setting up, hopefully a test of 30 31. uh, the hood investor we are buying and holding till shorts cover.
We are in amc and jimmy and nothing else those shorts haven't covered and that's it um. I mean you could do that, but i'm particularly not i've never ever exclusively, even throughout all of 2021. I've never exclusively been just in amc or gme. I have a long-term portfolio: we've been trading crypto.

Throughout the year we've been trading tesla we've been trading apple going all in on. Like a particular thing, that's just not good a good way to do it. If anything i mean you should have some reserve capital, because you want the opportunity to like really take advantage of awesome opportunities. So so, if something else is moving, you can make money off of that.

And now you have extra money to buy dips and lower your cost basis and dollar cost average on the things that you might initially like, even more, if you're, simply using all of your ammunition at once, um. That's not the like tactical way to play the situation ever. If anything, you would want other money to grow, and then that gives you more money to buy the original things on discounts. So then, you have more at a better cost basis to simply be all in, and you just use all of your ammo at once.

That's not like the mathematically ideal way to really ever engage in the market uh. Some people only invest when they are so confident. They are willing to go all in um. I i get that some people are that confident, but remember nothing in the market's ever guaranteed.

There's no such thing as a 100 guaranteed. There's no such thing as like a zero percent chance. The stock market is one of the most complex multivariate problems and puzzles ever and because of that, there's there's just no such things as guarantees in the market. They just simply do not exist.

Matt yeah, but you told me to buy only amc trust me: bro jk, lojk, ripa for life ripa for life. One of these days, kelly ripple, will invite me on you. Just got ta bring it into existence, think it into existence all right. What are the queues? Hang on a second, the queues had a solid bounce kind of a wedge iwm.

So it's really the i don't know ever. This is just more of we're waiting right now. It's 10 a.m. For the senate panel is this gon na be shown.

Live hang on one! Second, let's see if we can find uh some of this information, so we have uh senate panel uh fed. I wonder if this is being shown live chairman i feel like it has to be. Senate committee, considers re-nomination of powell as federal reserve, chair uh, all right. Let's see what's going on there, it has we're just waiting waiting, waiting, waiting i'll, let you know when it starts.

I have the audio on in my headphones, we'll see if there's anything interesting man, why is lucid having such a good day lucy? What are you doing? Tesla proved to produce 2 000 model y bodies at giga, berlin, tesla, china, ev sales surge in december, outperforming neo kathy wood makes first buy. She bought xpev uh. All right, i'm not seeing any lucid news. It's just we're.
Seeing an abnormal amount of strength in lucid is just moving and moving and moving man congrats whoever's, crushing that wow lucy. What percentage is that up? 6.75, when everything else is a little bit funky interesting, interesting, interesting all right, it is bouncing a little bit we're getting a little bit of a bounce, the overall market, i've just seen what's going on across the interwebs, i think we're all just waiting. I think we're just waiting for whatever's going on with the fed today. Uh does lucid have any short plays uh.

I can look up the short interest for you. I mean i'm sure, there's some, but i don't think it's a heavily shorted one lucid has an estimated short interest. Oh actually, it is kind of higher 18 um utilization. A hundred percent shares on loan 132.

So it's kind of a larger float uh and the cost to borrow on lucid right now is 229. How did i not know about that? Are there any serious ftds on lucid, hang on? This is now interesting me free flow failures to deliver the most recent one. Uh. 56.

000.. All right, it sounds like the senate committee is just starting. Well we're gon na find out what he says just made 100 on lucidcall piling into amc. Shout out! Congratulations! Let me turn this volume down a little bit.

I'm sure we can find we're going to know in the market very very quickly, uh if there's any major announcements or whatnot man. Oh man, that's a breakout! That's a breakout! Tesla call whoa whoa, whoa, whoa whoa. Look at all this tesla money coming in!.

3 thoughts on “Be prepared for market volatility inflation the fed”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Rubenov says:

    Did he sell the TSLA puts? Uncanny ability to always call the opposite move of what that stock does

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Steven Scott says:

    Come on Matt a bit more AMC apeish

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars banned says:

    Xtreme bagz

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