Down We Go?!?!
Dumb Money w/ Matt Kohrs
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Dumb Money w/ Matt Kohrs
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#DumbMoney #ApeNation #MoonGang
Please be sure to LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and turn on them NOTIFICATIONS.
Let me know in the comments if there is anything I can improve on moving forward.
Thanks for Watching!
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
DISCLOSURE:
I have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMC & GME either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.
Blah good morning, good morning, good morning, i hope everyone is having an absolutely phenomenal morning afternoon evening night. Whatever time it is for you, i hope, you're having a beautiful one. We are about 30 minutes out from the market going ding ding, ding ding on today, tuesday february, 8th. Now there are some important things.
We definitely need to talk about. First of all, if you're looking at the title of this down, we go. We need to talk about what i see going on and i would love to get your opinions on it: the overall market, i'm talking the s, p, 500, the nasdaq 100 and the russell 2000. I want to lay out my trading plan for today and also for the remainder of the week.
Then we have to talk about really. What's going on in some of these big announcements, there's a continuation on the piton drama. I have an update with elon and tesla. We have to talk about kathy wood and what's she doing then some like facebook, aka meta drama.
We have an important person stepping down there and then i want to dive into some recent and pretty intriguing updates, with both amc and gme um and then, of course, after all that there's going to be some extra time. So we can look into the short interest numbers, the utilization. We could do some chart reviews, but overall, there's a lot to really fit in before that bell does go ding ding ding ding, so we all have a little bit of a better foundation for what's going on and if there's some extra time i'll give everyone an Update on the the current trades that we've been posting on locals and also um, i do have a kind of a fun little special announcement related to what's pinned at the top of chat talking about ttg um. I have a an interesting idea of what we could do so with all that being said, let's hop right into it all right there we go all right, so the dow currently up dao futures up just 0.16 percent, the s p 500 down slightly the nasdaq down Slightly oil currently training at 89.81, and then we have yields still hanging out still pushing close to two percent.
So that's a little quick snapshot of what's going on in the pre-market session. Obviously, the futures market - don't forget, futures trades on what's referred to as like the globex section so from sunday night at 6 p.m, all the way, till friday night at 5, 00 pm it trades 23 hours out of the day, and it just takes a one hour Break between 5 pm and 6 p.m. Eastern, so a lot of people paying attention to it. The futures market trades quite a few hours out of the day, um very quickly on in terms of your snapshot.
Here's a look at the spy, the qs and the russell. So it seems like the spy's slowly coming down and i want to point out some important levels. There same thing with the cues uh russell, the russell 2000 a little bit more interest from sure a lot of the viewers here. Just because, like there's a good chance, you've heard of amc well, amc is the largest one within the russell, and i've noticed that that one is currently going flat and right now volatility kind of starting to pick its head back up. Remember volatility in the bottom right here will commonly move in an inverse manner to what we're seeing in the s p, 500 volatility vix v i x, which is going to be another way you could try that or track is through vxx or uv xy commonly moves In an inverse manner to the s p 500, because that's exactly what the vix is: it's tracking the volatility of the s, p 500. So usually when things sell off, that means there's more volatility. Hence the vix goes up, and obviously, if there's any questions about that stuff, let me know very quickly. We see that crypto has basically been on a beautiful five-day win streak right now, it's taking a little bit of a breather.
It ran up, got above resistance. I think the technicals just got hot. This is a very reasonable health check. Um.
If you want to know more about crypto and what's going on there, don't forget the crypto core stream is at 2 pm every day monday to friday, and then we also do sunday evening streams all right. Now, let's get into like kind of the nitty-gritty of what you need to know about today, wall street looks steady after a recent uncommon, quiet start to the week um i don't know that's like you're gon na see today. There's like been a really i don't know. What's going on today, but it's kind of like weird, not that exciting and kind of like tongue, twister titles, but let me get into this: this is the s p.
500. This is tracked by the spy. It's spy's, the etf, that's tracking, the s p. 500.
Recently, for the start of the year, we saw a sell-off. We saw a pop and right now we're kind of in that decision zone we're seeing lower highs, higher lows, we're basically forming a wedge, and the question is: which way is this gon na break? I don't know if we're gon na get that answer today, but we might, and the main thing i'll be watching, is right here. This teal line is the 200-day moving average. This is a very important simple moving average that many investors banks, hedge funds, algorithms, market makers, individual traders, retail traders.
Many many people are watching this line commonly thought above it bullish below it bearish. Recently there was almost a breakdown. There was a breakdown and then it kind of messed around there for five days and then it popped back above and now people are saying: okay, is this just kind of undoing it like the market, doesn't know which way it's going to go, and this is very Much like kind of led by the femme uh right now everyone's trying to pay attention and make a bet based on what the fed will or won't do so anyway. My plan is today yesterday was an inside trading day, not much going on.
The high in the low of yesterday was perfectly encapsulated within the high and the low of the previous day you have inside days. You have outside days up range and downrange. Those are the four possible types of candles when you have an inside date, that's actually the most rare type of candle um. So the and really what it's telling you is, there's just no direction. There's no bullish direction! There's no bearish erection, it's just the inside day! So what i'm looking for, based on a little bit of the pre-market little pre-market slightly down, i am watching this 200 simple moving average. If we bounce off of it great, the bullish party, hopefully will continue if we break down below it. I think then, we'll be testing 428. Those are my two scenarios we bounce.
I play it upward we break down. I play downward, i'm watching the 200 moving average. That's my personal plan. Maybe you agree.
Maybe you disagree, i'm just trying to share what i'm watching and what i know a lot of big money will be watching. Is this 200 simple moving average uh? If we take a look at the queues here, the 200 moving average is higher yeah. We do have a gap filled to 364. if we break below 351 350, there's a good chance that this will also start to drag the spy with it because remember some of the biggest players in the queue which is the tech heavy, is also some of the Top players in the spy there is some overlap in these two different indices: um, quick little update there uh officially nvidia has flipped facebook, aka meta, and it's currently the seventh biggest based on market cap uh company, so nvidia did flip facebook.
But anyway, if we break down below 351 350, i'm then watching 340, but obviously, if it shows strength gets above 360, i'm then looking for the gap filled the 364 and maybe a little bit beyond that. The qs might be testing its 200-day moving average and in terms of the russell kind of an interesting scenario it tried to bake out of this trend. Line, got smacked, try to break out again and right now, it's pretty much sitting at it. So i'm just really watching this trend line watching the recent lows.
The recent highs um, but all these they're not going to be the exact same, but there is like some rough rhyme and reason across three of the major indices. All right and don't forget big thing. That's going to be moving it beyond some of the earnings that we have going on is thursday. Thursday morning we are going to be getting the consumer price index.
This is one of the most common inflationary gauges that the federal reserve will be using. The expectation is that, over the past month, it's gone up 0.5, which would put the year-over-year around. I believe, uh. The most recent reading was 7.3 um, which, if we get this, that means that we're tied to the high that we saw in 1982 uh.
So once again, that is thursday um the consumer price index cpi pfizer expects 54 billion in 2022 sales on rona vaccine and treatment pill. So if you're invested in pfe ticker symbol or pfizer ticker symbol, pfe, probably something worthwhile to pay attention to. I personally have not really been uh messing around with that one, and really the news that's like kind of, i guess stealing it like. I guess headlines this morning. It's peloton. The peloton drama continues continues, continues: peloton names, tech, exec, barry, mccarthy to replace ceo. John foley shares tumble okay. So this is like.
I said this drama over the past like month of, what's going on here, piton just reported their earnings, and that's where this came out and you're also going to see this. Not only do they have like a leadership switch up, but on top of it they missed. On revenue and they missed on earnings per share, and then they lowered their guidance, so pton of slash's full-year revenue at first it was within the range of 4.4 to 4.8 billion and they're slashing their estimation down to 3.7 to 3.8. So this was their initial tranche and they're lowering the tranche for their full year revenue outlook so they're lowering their guidance.
They missed on earnings per share. They missed on revenue and they're changing up their ceo as one of the activist investors of like basically, a big fund, who has a lot of money in piton, is saying: hey get this john foley guy out of there. We want a new, ceo and there's even some pressure on them to literally like sell the business to someone like amazon is being discussed, um uh, apple's being discussed, there's various companies that, like might be interested in acquiring peloton so right now, if you take a quick Look at it piton not having the best morning, p-t-o-n um, let's see how this goes, uh, that's it's a weird scenario, weird weird scenario so worthwhile. Just i i think, there's gon na be some volatility.
Just so everyone knows i don't own piton shares. I have no calls, i have no puts. I have no skin in the game on piton, but i have to admit um. It is an interesting thing to see how it pulls out.
So like this john, this switch up is probably the thing that people are focusing on in terms of positive news, because obviously the metrics and the quantitative like breakdown of what's going on here, is the negative side um. So, fundamentally, you have some weird things but then, like with the leadership mix up, obviously if they like this new guy, if they like this barry mccarthy uh. That could be a piece of positive news, so couple things to pay attention to there, especially if you're in piton. I just wanted to share all that with you softbank plans to take arm public after nvidia's takeover collapses.
So arm is a big thing in the uk. Nvidia was gon na, try to get it and it was tied up for a year and a half, and then they basically said no. The ftc is like this is going to be, like probably like an anti-trust issue, probably like monopolistic practices, making nvidia too big. So they kind of stopped it, and now it looks like it's kind of dead in the water. It looks like soft bank, on the other hand, is just gon na take arm public uh, so quick update there and then finally met it, drops with peter thiel leaving board facebook in europe in question um. So this is interesting. Peter thiel is resigning from mena's board to focus on electing pro-trump candidates at the 2022 midterms. Well, if you don't know who peter thiel is he's somewhat of a legend on wall street and back in 2004, he invested 500 000, a half a million dollars into facebook and then, when facebook officially ipo'd in 2012, that 500 000, it turned into him being able To cash out, 638 million talk about a killer investment 2004 to 2012.
Eight years he turned half a mil into 638 mill, he's been on the board really ever since then and recently. Obviously, as you can tell he's, decided to stop that uh step down. So if we take a look at facebook, um, it's down an additional one percent this morning, ever with its like ever since its earnings. This thing has been going down down down which is kind of interesting, because there's so many mainstream media who are telling you buy this dip.
This is an amazing opportunity, but ever since that, like we opened up on february 2nd and it's been coming down as everyone on mainstream media is telling everyone to buy, it's still down 32 and it's down even more right now with the overall nasdaq in question. To me, morally, i would never pick up facebook, i'm never gon na put my money in a company that basically is benefiting off of like causing more division between people, but even if i didn't know what they were doing as a business like this, this isn't looking Good folks, i mean the next support, maybe in the range of 200-206, but this is a gap down and it's continuing to get beat up um, maybe enough time out if they properly pull off this like if they properly execute this pivot into the world of metaverse. Maybe they can like bounce back from their possibility, but i mean they're losing users. People are just getting tired of big tech of social media censorship and facebook is kind of the name of like things are getting so bad in facebook that i was just reading an article they're, considering allowing them to do political advertisements before um in the last campaign That was like a big deal that facebook's like okay, no political advertisements like that's how bad of a situation is they're like yeah.
No, like we know we took that moral stance before but uh, it's a dumpster fire of a situation, so we might actually do political ads once again and on top of it now you have peter thiel, dropping down so more drama there. We have drama at paluton. We have drama facebook, aka meta, and i guess now that we're going over it. I might as well share this with you kathy woods.
Arc invested ditches almost 4 million more twitter shares days before its earnings report, snaps up roblox. You know i'm a fan of her. Sometimes other times, i'm not like the main issue i have with her is that she keeps buying robin hood. I see absolutely no reason to invest in hood, but beyond it. I do like her because she's a big supporter of tesla um - i guess she's - dropping twitter right now and like snapping up roblox, i am a fan of roblox, i'm bullish on gaming and i'm bullish on the fact that it might be able to execute well uh. In the metaverse, i'm very bullish this year and for the next couple years on the money-making opportunities within the metaverse, and i think roblox is a strong contender. Um little side note take two interactive ttwo. They just reported um, not the best report, but their ceo does have some cool, like commentary on metaverse nfts, maybe worthwhile to look into but anyway, so i'm a fan of buying roblox, i'm kind of indifferent to like selling off twitter.
But i do think the timing is interest um, so right here after the market closes on thursday. The same day we get that consumer price index twitter has its earnings announcement. Just so you know today, uh cvs reported this morning a canopy growth company. So a marinara play reporting you might want to check into that.
Also honda after the market closes today. Uh, i think uber and walt and disney will probably be worthwhile to pay attention to disney's a very big company, um mgm, so maybe a little bit of a bounce back see how things are really going with rona without rona. I think physical casinos are really good indicator of like okay. How much are people really returning to like quote? Unquote normal um, and so here's some other ones? If you want to take a snapshot of it, coca-cola pepsi, we have under armor on friday.
These are the ones that we have for the remainder of the week, but speaking of rona and the bounce pack, i do have a quick update. There. Four states announced they're dropping mass mandates for schools. This is uh, including oregon, new jersey, connecticut and delaware.
So i would definitely take that as a positive sign and then the final thing i really want to go over in terms of just like kind of some other crazy stocks and all that stuff is um. The sec subpoenaed tesla, just 10 days after elon musk's twitter poll, asking whether he should sell a chunk of his stock elon elon elon this guy. He just seems to love really messing around with the sec and on the internet and just trolling the trolls, and i guess in this case he's considering the sec to be a troll. I mean this stuff.
Is nuts tesla was subpoenaed by the sec 10 days after elon asked twitter whether he should sell 10 of his stock? The regular asked for information on tesla's governance process around compliance with a 2018 settlement in the settlement must agree to have tesla related tweets vetted by a company lawyer before posting them. So quick a little update there i mean man whenever elon gets its hand on twitter. You always just know, there's going to be some some form of fireworks, all right, wild wild wild. Let's talk about amc. I want to get into some of the metrics from ortex. I want to look at a chart and then i want to go over some important news for amc. That's coming out today, tuesday february, 8th, so before the market's going ding ding ding ding. Today, the estimated short interest is 21.76 percent.
This is a sky high value. Relative to where amc has been at before utilization 82 shares on loan around 122 mil. So those are the numbers, obviously they're, still shorts in this play. The question is: are they going to get squeezed? Aren't they going to get squeezed? Obviously, time will tell now very quickly if we take a look at the chart ever since, roughly the thanksgiving time period.
Yes, amc has been selling off, there's like not really too many if ands or buts about it. Um. It's just exactly what's been going on. The question is: is how long will this current trend continue? Now, obviously, i'm not clairvoyant, i'm not a fortune teller, i'm not even a financial advisor, i'm just saying.
Obviously, bull trends bear trends. Trends do not continue forever. There's a natural ebb and flow between expansion, consolidation right here. What i'm watching is two main levels of support.
Obviously we have the recent low of 1340 and we also have a key level of 1450. from there. What i'm really looking for is a push back up to 18.. Are we gon na get like a shoulder head shoulder as in an inverse shoulder head shoulder? Would love to see this push back up to the 18 region and obviously fingers crossed that we break above that, because then that opens up the door to the low 20s.
So that's what i'll be watching kind of this inverse shoulder head shoulder, but i also want to point out that there is bullish divergence as the stock has come lower, we're actually kind of seeing a mismatch in the rsi. The relative strength index values of 0 to 100 and it's just mapping out momentum. Well when you're very low, that's a lot of bearish momentum, but sometimes you get into the oversold category and when you have price, that's going lower, but the momentum isn't matching it like. We've seen recently with the upside down head.
Well, that's actually referred to as bullish divergence. Does it have to play out this way every time? No there's no such thing as a technical indicator that has 100 accuracy. It just does not exist, but obviously, if we're playing the odds, this is the situation that i'm looking for. I'm looking for this to like kind of really fill out and hopefully get this test of 18.
if, for some reason, it's rejected before that i'll be watching 1450 and i'll be watching 1340 on the bottom side. These are the levels of support i'll personally be paying attention to and on the top side, these are the levels of resistance, i'll personally be paying attention to. So that's the breakdown of. What's going on with the ortex data, the short interest, the utilization? That's what's going on from a technical perspective, but i do have some news to share with all of you. Amc theaters reaches lease agreement with urw announces additional high-profile major market acquisitions of former arclight locations. In the dc and san diego areas, so this is very reminiscent of exactly what they said. They were attempting to do in the most recent earnings announcement. Just so you know the upcoming earnings announcement will roughly be in about a month early march, so it was just announced today as a reach, lease agreement with urw to acquire and open two high-profile locations each located in a major market.
We're talking about san diego and we're also talking about washington, d.c uh, there's some dates here. This is obviously all in sec filing you can dive into the details if you're a little bit more curious. I just really wanted to share this quote from adam aaron. Amc continues to play offense and aggressively seek out opportunities to strengthen our company through strategic acquisitions.
We look forward to bringing the amc experience to give more guests in and around san diego and dc at these previously high traffic, well-known theaters, with this announcements. This brings up the number up to six former arclight pacific theaters that are being added into the amc orbit. So don't forget if we're really looking in just to the pier numbers before this amc already had uh the lion share of market share in terms of just like okay, the movie going experience, who had the most theaters, who was responsible for hosting most of the traffic Amc already topped here on the list. Well, now it's just it's really taking its market share and it's bloating the numbers, it's just getting all these other ones.
It's just gobbling it up. So i like that, it's just being more competitive. I personally don't believe that the movie going experience is gon na die off. Like many people say it's going to.
I just don't subscribe to that. I think there's many movies sporting events theater-based concerts that are always going to attract people and right here we're seeing just a business strategic move of them acquiring more theaters. So for me, this is them exactly following through on what they told us. They were going to do in the most recent earnings.
I'm excited to see what they say about it in the upcoming earnings, but the news actually doesn't stop there for amc. We have an update from adam aaron that i want to share with all of you and this one relates to nfts. You ask you get another significant limited edition movie themed nft for amc guests between march first and second. Sixth.
Excuse me this time. Partnering with warner brothers on this blockbuster movie the batman - you must also secure your tickets by february 14th. So anyone who wants to have the opportunity of getting uh the batman based nft you have to have that by february 14th. You know i do very much like that. Amc is just expanding its market share in like its traditional form of business, but what i like more of it is i'm just so absurdly bullish on nfts and the metaverse, and yes, are these. The first couple baby steps into this world 100. I'm not saying that the the current nfts that amc has been doing is going to be something that like really propels its like fundamental understanding to the rest of the world and investors and retail, and all that that much higher. But you got ta start somewhere.
So as they continue to do it, they are really laying out, i would almost say, like a breadcrumb trail of yeah becoming more and more so like dominant within the world of nfts, and i think they're going to start to add on utility. Obviously, time will tell all i know is to really succeed in it. You got to start somewhere and that's what they're doing they're taking the first couple steps of an overall journey really getting their toes wet in the world of crypto metaverse, particularly nfts, i'm personally, very. Very excited about it and hey if you're watching this, and you particularly want to get this nft.
I do wish you the best of luck, excited to see how this all plays out. On top of it, we also have gamestop, so this was tweeted out by ryan cohen. This morning, hey gamestop has a new app. I would not be surprised if they're just getting this going for like they're kind of classic gme bass stuff, but what i'm really expecting is that they're getting the app out there, they're gon na get people downloading on it uh or down to download it.
And then i bet they're gon na start, like really when we obviously know they're all doing their own nft marketplace between immutable, x and also looping um. So we have one that's the platform, the other that's a wallet. Those are going to be the backbone of the technology. I would not be surprised if they are looking to actually have this, be like their core app that people are going to get access to the nft marketplace, so this was literally tweeted out by ryan cohen.
A couple hours ago worthwhile to check out and just because we went over it with amc, let me give in on gme we're seeing a noteworthy jump in gme short interest: rately uh, it's up to 22. Now, not that long ago it was like close to 10. We were talking 10, 11, 12 and now it's up to 22. um utilization 86 shares on loan 19 mil.
So we're definitely seeing some interesting developments there and just like the pure metrics, and let me tell you about what's going on with gme here, um so similar to amc. Yes, ever since that thanksgiving time period it's been hit and it's been hit to like a noteworthy percentage, there's no, if ands or buts, about it like. If you disagree with that, you're just disagreeing with reality, but recently same with amc, bearish trends, don't last forever bullish trends don't last forever. There is a natural ebb and flow so right here, i'm watching the support of 86. I like the support of 95, and i also like this key psychological level of 100.. We know over the past two weeks that gme has been having an issue really getting above 105. So that's my first level that i'm closely paying attention to, but from above 105, if we could get that breakout i'll, then be watching somewhere, be like between 110 115 kind of like right around there. Let's just call it 112.
um. So those are my levels of support. Those are my levels of resistance, but overall we are seeing an increase in both amc and jamie's short interest. The question is: who is right? There are some people who are gon na try to guarantee things so, like a squeeze.
Has to happen not necessarily no it doesn't. Nothing is ever guaranteed in the market. That's silly to think that anything is ever guaranteed in the market. Do the shorts have to cover yeah they're, not going to pay these loan fees endlessly? That's a given, but shorts, covering.
Does not necessarily mean a squeeze has to happen. It can be covered in such a way over a long time period of time, where you're not going to see that explosion of volatility that prompts gamma squeezes and prompts fomo buying. That's a completely different scenario. Personally, i have my money where my mouth is.
You can check it out in public, which is right here, don't forget to sign up it's free to sign up. You get up to 70 dollars of free stock when you do sign up and start trading on it. No payment for order flow, no market makers, trading on a lit exchange. They are very transparent, check out their blog posts.
You can see all their metrics. That's why i'm happy to be partnered up and affiliated up with public because they're the ones i trust the most. Now, if you're an options trader public's, not going to be for you, they don't have options, but they do have stock and what's cool about it is you can see what other people are in so check? You can check out my profile. You'll see amc, you'll, see, gme, you'll, see corsair and you'll, see prog, that's what's in my public profile for my stocks and then obviously for all the options.
Trades. I've just been posting that on the locals, uh the macros.locals discussion board and if you missed that one from yesterday i will um like kind of give you a recap of all that stuff uh. Did you used to love weeble? No, i mean it's what i went to when robin hood like was super sass, and then we started to learn about payment for order flow. There is not a single person who didn't promote weeble, we didn't know what was going on um if you're gon na fault me or another creator for just like at one point thinking. Weeble was good. Okay, we did. We didn't know we we learned um if you're against. Just the fact i mean do you know how many people were on weeble.
Do you know how many people had their weeble affiliate like it's just how it went, and then you learn more and i'm telling you this right now. Everything i know about public is top tier. If i learn something negative about them, i'm off public. It's honestly that simple to like hold people accountable for something like hey.
We corrected course i learned about it. I got off weeble. I can't say that for everyone else uh and if you do whatever you want on an individual basis, the power to you, i'm talking about people that have a filing and they create videos and posts on twitter and reddit. Talking about how like they're so supportive of the apes and anti-payment for order flow, and then they just have all their pictures of like hey, i just bought more on weeble.
I don't understand it, it doesn't make sense to me. I learned my lesson. I learned what payment for order flow was, and i got off it and i got into a better brokerage known as public um. It's honestly that simple, like uh, the people try to like build it up, as if it's like some big thing, and i i just don't get it like.
You can't name a single person who, at one point wasn't hawking the weeble affiliate link it just. It does not exist. You learn your lesson. You learn about payment for order flow and you're like oh, okay, that seems super super bad.
Maybe i shouldn't be supporting a brokerage that engages in that particular business practice um. Finally, this has nothing to do with the market, but i did want to share this with you just because i thought it was absolutely wild when i was reading it this morning, dutch speed skater irene, wust uh. I don't know how to say it with that. Umlaut on top is the first athlete to win individual gold at five olympics.
I believe she is 35. She started when she was 17 won individual gold at five separate olympics. That's just crazy! That's absolutely crazy. Uh just shows you how impressive some humans are out there, so just wanted to quickly share that with all of you, we went through all of this all right, good, good, good, let's just close out some of these tabs, it's going to be a day overall, remember With the stock market, i am watching that 200-day moving average.
That's the point of bounce. That's the point of break. I don't know which way it's going to go. Those are the two scenarios we come down to 444.
We come down to 443.. If we start to bounce i'll be bullish, if we start to break down i'll, be bearish both of those are for the short term um same thing: it's going to be have a lot of rhyme reason with the cues and also with the russell, and if you Want to play another way you could potentially engage is through the vix ding ding ding, the casino is open. Let me drop all of this and i actually want to quickly throw up amc just to see how people are reacting to the news. The filings that we had this morning and i need to quickly check out, what's going on over here, all right, so we have amc in the bottom left as long. Let's see, let's see if there's volatility, let's see if there's movement folks, this is the rules of the game. If something is moving, if something has volatility, it will be up on the screen if it's not moving, if it doesn't have volatility, it's not going to be up on the screen, we're not going to waste space on our screen. If there's like not much going on um dwack, remember, dewac got hit yesterday kind of a actually pretty crazy rug, pull scenario um and i believe from like my little research on it. I think it's because they push back one of their launches instead of february to march, so just something to know about pay attention to all right.
Let's see what the spy wants to do out of the gate this morning, we're getting a little bit of a bounce. Obviously we need, if we're going to bounce, you got to start somewhere. So i like the spine, the q's going higher. I actually want to throw up dwack just for a second here just for a second to see.
If it's going to catch itself at 81.. Is there and of course, as always, if there's anything nuts going on uh, let me know, let me know. Oh someone did ask. This is a great question: uh the short interest on the overall market, s, p, 500, 37, nasdaq, 100, almost 20, and the russell is over 50.
The small cap sector. If these bears got it wrong, they're gon na be wrong in a very glorious way. If they got it right, man, the whales are lining up on the overall market going down, particularly the small cap sector 50 short interest on the russell 20 on the nasdaq 37 on the s p. 500.
Those are wild numbers. Those are truly wild numbers all right. Jimmy hanging out at 102. remember jimmy.
The number i really care about is 105., definitely 105. uh. So let me know i mean gme lethargic volume, thus far at open. We have prague up a little bit what's moving this morning.
Micron is having a decent opening up. 2.5, this is a semiconductor in the world of nvidia intel that type of a thing mu. This is actually kind of a little bit of a unique one. This is one that nancy pelosi bought.
Some leap calls on uh, so pelosi bullish on that. I think she's also bullish on disney, which is going to be reporting after the market closes today today. I believe no tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow, uh so disney recently bouncing off of 130ish some higher lows for disney. I would see if it could get the breakout of roughly 144 145, which could lead to a gap bill at 147., micron still pushing uh amc trying to hold above that key support of 100 or sorry 1450, not 145. 14.50. All right, let's see we're opening up. Let's get this morning volatility out of the way, let's see what's going on that key level on the s, p. 500 is 444.
443. That's the 200-day moving average that i care about a lot and i think a lot of other people. Will it's right here. It's 4 43 and a half so somewhere between 443 and 446 um.
I also now this morning care about 445.85. That's the low from yesterday, and the reason why i care about 445.85 is: if we go below it, that means we don't have an inside day. We might have some sort of uh a trending day, but you never know could obviously bounce before check out sends sends uh sends is currently down. Seven percent is blowing up on the 24 hour.
I mean it's ripped before i wouldn't buy here. There's no way. I would chase this one two, three, four, five, six, seven green days not chasing it um. If anything, it might be gap filling down to 335.
Maybe it goes below that um. When you see this much like of a run, your first thought is like. Oh that's cool. I wish i was in it, but you might be late to the party.
If you have no position, don't be the person who's chasing chasing once in a while. It's gon na make you some money, but most of the time, at least in my own experience, it causes you to lose money, do not be the person who's late to the party that that's bag. Holding that that's how you become a bag holder is hopping on to some excitement and the train of things after the move has been going. You don't want to do it and you can do it to the upside or to the downside.
If you were incense already hey cool awesome, would i be buying now no possible way? Would i be buying, after a seven day, rip and now a new questionable day, no way? No, how if you're in it, though congrats. I hope it continues to go higher for you uh. What's duac right now, some people are dwack, unfortunately, down to 78. man that announcement it just they just keep pushing off their thing.
All right, amc bouncing off of 1470 about 20 cents higher than its support uh. So i like that, that's a some nice buying aggression. The next level i would watch in the short term is a roughly 16 and a half. You have a little bit at 16 25 and you have a little bit more resistance at like 16, 60.
16. 70. In there, so about a dollar and a half higher is what i'd be watching on amc. Mu is cr.
What's going on with mu this morning, mu uh getting a little wow mu, shoulder head shoulder if mu keeps going i'd, be watching 85 86 resistance, resistance, resistance, mu, really waking up shoulder head shoulder, inverse head and shoulders. I have no mu position if this breaks from 86, my first watch 87.50 and then from there 91 mu. Are there like whales in this one right now what's going on? Why is mu wall street bets stocks mixed? So it looks like this one was being discussed in wall street bets, so there could be some crowd, enthusiasm behind mu, interesting hemi's. Looking good folks, mu is looking good and it looks like the spy is coming back to its fighting form. The question is: is it going to hold? Is it going to hold amc, looking good mu, looking good is the russell looking good with amc the russell back above 200. The russell is looking good, thus far so far, so good. Remember we're only eight minutes into the day. It seems like a going theme um that we've really been experiencing.
I would argue over the past like week or two is kind of like just noteworthy like shape, i guess formations, whether normal or upside down, but uh. If you look at the intraday charts recently they're very obvious, like you're gon na see like these pushes to the upside, then it gets ripped all the way down and then it pushes and then it sells off and closed or it runs up into close. But overall it's we're just clearly still in maybe not as high volatility, as we were like a week week and a half ago like closer to the fed meeting, but still in a higher volatility environment. In my opinion, it's very obvious at the volatility and you can kind of see it in some of the juiced iv in the options market that type of a thing iwm pushing.
This should bode very, very well for amc, uh gme. We should bring that up. Gme is pushing that 105 mark 105. Jimmy for two weeks has struggled to get above it so hey whenever it keeps pushing uh i'm happy with it.
I just want it to accept that price soak up that supply and get going and then watch around 112-ish amc at this point, a very very nice hold above 1450, so from there. I would just really be paying attention to that's about a dollar higher at first, like 1625 than 1670., all right. What's the spy gon na do here the russell's having a good day, amc gme russell, all looking green, but what's the spy gon na do what in the world is the spy gon na do uh roughly break even the spy pretty much flat? The queue is pretty much flat, but the russell it seems like small cap is leading the day today. Uh, let me, if you don't know what this website is, it's finvis and you could get.
I guess it's not loading. Yet this is a heat map. Of the s. P 500 looks like they're having some technical issues this morning there we go all right, we're seeing some green we're, seeing some green all right, green and amc, green and gme.
I i just the spy like i mean clearly, small cap is crushing it today, but the spy being. What are the cues doing? Even the cues are picking up. It just seems like the spy itself is kind of lagging and the question is: is it lagging and it's about to pop or is something else going on under the hood? We do have a mini cup and handle kind of a big? U a smaller! U looks like it's coming up to 44 447 40. uh to see if we get this like cup and handle fill out cup handle typically bullish, not always going to be bullish, but let's see how that goes, patience, patience, patience! Where are we at okay? A couple more minutes, um, especially recently, really as like this volatility, has gone nuts. I've been trying to sit closer and closer to my idea of hey. You got to be patient. You got to wait that first, let's see what trends are actually developed, just because something trends down or up in the first 10 minutes. That doesn't mean that's gon na be the trend for the day.
It might be the trend for the day, but, as we've seen like just look at the intraday chart, uh lots of whiplash going on lots of whiplash going on amc, hold no jimmy right at that resistance level of 105.. I don't know why. Uh, it's just become an important price level, but man gme traders, investors, whoever they are out. There have really been focusing on this, like active, 105 price level, interesting all right now that things are opening up a little bit.
Let me turn it over to you for some of your questions and everything. Oh, if you haven't already, it would be um very, very appreciated. On my end, if you could hit that like button and also don't forget to join up with the moon gang, if you haven't already whether you're on rumble youtube or twitch, you could subscribe and or follow if you're on twitch there all that stuff liking subscribing really Helps me out the algorithm and it is completely free um. Never ever going to ask you for a single dime.
That's the algorithmic support is like the main thing i'll ask for uh. My son just threw you under the bus, got caught singing going to the fm moon, said it's dad's, crazy friend, with monkeys gon na go to the moon and in principle as who's kenny fire. What uh all right? I've been looking to get into crew, energy, cr and tsc. Would i be chasing most likely if you're asking me if you're chasing you're, you're, probably chasing cr on the tse, wait cr on the tse right here, crew energy - i mean, i think it's a little bit.
Chasey, it's looking a little bit heavy kind of like it did right in this time frame january 13th like right here, it looks like it wants to come down a little bit. What i see here right here, this formation looks very similar to this looks very similar to november looks very similar to september october, looks like it wants to come down a little bit and you're also seeing bearish divergence. The stock has gone higher. The rsi has gone lower to me.
This is not a statistically advantageous time. Does that mean that it isn't and in reality something can happen and it rips tomorrow, of course, but it's all about stacking the odds in your favor and to me this, if anything in the short term, i would call this a bearish looking chart in the short Term, in the medium to longer term, no, it's obviously bullish but like if you can, if you like it at 360, well, what if you could pick it up at 320? What, if you could pick it up at three dollars? There we go come on is the third test gon na, be the charm, the lucky charm here. What's the spy gon na do? Is it going to come back up and test again 447.40. The spy's, the one who's been lagging interesting, amc chillin at 15, once again jimmy 105.. It's it's struggling there as it has done as it has. I'm really watching this uh. I'm trying to pay attention. We're roughly in this dollar range on the s.
P. 500. 46. 40 to 4, 47 40 range bound same highs, same lows.
You just have to watch and really pay attention to which way this range will or won't break um. Do i have a guess of which way it will break absolutely. No clue no clue, no clue, patience, patience, patience, oh one thing i want to shout out to all of you remember, remember, remember remember. I think this is incredibly important.
First of all, don't bet more money than you can stand to lose. You should never ever be going all in on one plane. You should definitely never be going all in on one play with more money than you're willing to lose. Nothing is ever ever guaranteed.
I need to stress that in every single stream, on top of that, i'm not a financial advisor and also i don't have some uncanny ability to tell people what's about to happen in the future. I do not have that superpower, i'm not a lawyer, i'm not a financial advisor. I do this to share my thoughts, my opinions, my trading, investing stock market journey. It's more here of stock market commentation, nothing! You should never be buying because i'm buying you should never be selling because i'm selling you should never be holding because i'm holding, i don't know your situation, i don't know your personality, i don't know your risk tolerance.
You got to be an adult. You got to be responsible, it's your money on the line. You're the money you're playing with is not the money i'm playing with. We have different time frames.
We have different risk tolerance. We have different overall goals of how we want to engage with the market. Please remember that, just because i'm doing something it might be appropriate for you to it might be appropriate for you to forget about it might be appropriate for you to do the exact opposite, not only for me, but because you see something on social media. It doesn't matter if it's youtube, it doesn't matter if it's twitter reddit, those are just people on social media.
They are not putting food on their your table. They are not paying your bills, you got ta, do what's best for you. Don't just blindly mimic someone that is a perfect plan to end up losing money all right. What do we have going on? What else uh piton is ripping hey? I guess people liking that new ceo to the degree that it's actually overshadowing the like weaker earnings per share, the weaker revenue and also the uh anything really, i guess, related to their guidance like remember, drama, going on in piton and thus far up 10 people liking. The new ceo uh, 4, 47 20.. All right. Let's see news, flash financial advisors, don't know jack, some of them, probably don't. I saw a post that was a time traveler.
Oh man, uh. You were on the front page of rumble for two days in a row. Shout out, thank you brambles, oh yeah. They um, i believe they did like the joe rogan one on on rumble over there was able to make the the front page.
You know what's never going to make the trending or front page on youtube anything related to like the apes or like anti wall street, that type of stuff they're, never ever gon na promote that that's what it's so cool, i'm so incredibly happy um to be posting! My content on rumble the reception has been awesome. The community over there has been awesome. Do you know if public is looking into options? Um? I haven't heard anything and the fact that, like i haven't, heard anything in any of their like blog posts or anything like that, um makes me think that they're not. I have no, like particular inside information.
On that i mean it. I don't know i i don't know it, i i they're they seem to be more about this concept of like investing and because they seem to be more about investing. I don't know if they're necessarily that eager to get on like the train of hang on. What's going on the spy is i just got some alerts about the spy here, um they're trying to push this concept of medium to longer term investments, not really active trading, and you could argue that options trading, whether you're in calls or puts whether you're going long Or going short on calls or puts, that is a bit more of like an active thing and to me it doesn't really seem like it'd be like in line, but also those are just.
I guess my own assumptions who knows for all. I know maybe i'm just 100 completely wrong, and maybe they are actively looking into it. Does public offer margin accounts? Do you know i believe um your base account is a margin account most uh, just some, at least in the us. I can't speak for international accounts.
If you sign up for an account, the default is commonly a margin account, not a cash account. Nancy sopa halted what else we have going on dallas, jackman, jay, winkler, travis. What's up man ben good morning good morning, good morning, good morning, good morning, good morning i don't get what's going on here. The small cap is holding strong while the spy seems a little bit suss.
What's the deal with lucid lately, it's being heavily shorted, um, lucid, lucid, lucid, lucid. Maybe let me check the vortex numbers for you. There is um some obvious pros and cons to this whole, like amc, gme saga, and one of the major pros is the fact that it brought so many people into the market um, which is awesome. The more people involved in the market the better.
But it's also gotten people to think that it's very common that you should be looking for short squeeze plays, which they don't really happen that often they think that things only go red if people are shorting. No, it goes right if people are selling shorting is a form of selling, but selling can also be when you're exiting a position um, you can see red without shorting. I guess is my point and so like i think, there's some of the main story lines that have occurred with gme and amc and people are erroneously trying to apply that to all equities across the entire market and, like i said it's just inappropriate to do that. Um short squeezes: it's not like they happen all the time. Statistically highly shorted stocks go down, they don't go up. That's why that was like one of the specialty things about amc and jimmy. Is it like went against a common trend uh? The way we talk about like the whales and what big money's doing, if you see a big short interest, that means that the whales are betting on it going down in an interesting way if you're buying a stock, that's highly shorted you're, actually going against the whales Um, i think a lot of you thinking about that right now, you're, like oh yeah yeah, that like totally makes sense uh, but just like kind of another way to spin it lucid. It does have a higher short interest of 16, which is like above average um.
It's higher short interest, but it's not one of these things that it's like a 50 75 100 short interest, type of a thing. It's just been going down. Uh we have shares on loan of 133 mil it's trading 40 mil a day, it's being shorted, but, like i don't know if it's like the metrics represent like an egregious short like rate or anything like that, i'm actually a fan of lucid um. I'm.
I actually think these prices are very, very cheap, but i'm also just bullish on the eevee industry, especially lucid kind of a higher end, more of like a luxury ev play, which i think there's definitely going to be a some form of a market for, and i Think the market will grow and then i think once they capitalize on that market, similar to tesla, i think they'll pivot into more um. I don't know options uh like car options that are not as expensive, so i think they're going to take the play out of tesla's, playbook and kind of go through with that. I, like lucid. I think it's at a pretty good price right here, but if i were to get into lucid it would definitely be with the mindset of a long-term play, betting on the ev industry.
I would not be getting into lucid for a short squeeze. What do you think about taking a bearish position on pfizer after the whistleblower hearing with senator johnson? By the way i ride amc to zero? If needed, uh pfe a bearish position, i mean it gapped down it missed on revenue it hit on earnings, but you saw i don't know about this. Whistleblower thing i'd be watching that support of 50 resistance support, support, support support. If it goes below 50, then you're opening up the door to a gap bill of 44.. The thing with pfizer is it's a 285 billion dollar company. I mean you're, it's not that volatile, really like all these movements. It's kind of a couple dollars pfizer to me is something that like, if i look at this chart - and i look at the size of its swings - i'd probably just be selling premium in one way or another, whether it's calls or puts, and just be like it. Just doesn't seem to move much it's.
It doesn't seem like there's particular events that, like really like it kind of grinds up it kind of grinds down for, like it sounds like you're trying to get involved in an active trade, and i think there's just stocks out there that have more volatility. But i don't know much about this whistleblower thing. Oh people still talking. I have a question for all of you, and this is just opinions who knows unless someone in here is a fortune teller, then i have some more important questions for you, but i was thinking about.
I guess some of the craziness with, i guess big tech and censorship, and this and that um i don't mean it in a positive or in a negative way. But my question is: do you think joe rogan will be on spotify this time next year?.
the season in cinema is looking sparky. uncharted, the batman and marvel. maybe should be some real box office wins.
hopefully then we can see a good earnings report.