Stonks Rips: What I'm Watching For
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Please be sure to LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and turn on them NOTIFICATIONS.
Let me know in the comments if there is anything I can improve on moving forward.
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RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
DISCLOSURE:
I have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMC & GME either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.
So do hello what is going on everyone? Oh man, oh man, oh man, things are super super super super green there's a lot of bullishness, at least in the short term, and i kind of want to talk about that seasonality. I have some like stats and facts for you on that, but man, oh man, the stock market, at least, if you're, judging it on the pre-market, thus far looks very, very good. So what i want to do in this one to really get everyone prepped for before that bell goes ding and ding ding ding ding. I want to talk about some things that are developing in, like the larger market.
We'll look at some of the macroeconomic things. Then we're going to be diving into some interesting updates. We have some earnings and that type of stuff, and then i really want to dive into and really, i guess take some time to address like this concept of maximum shorts on amc and jimmy. What does utilization mean? I just want to break down some of that terminology, just so we're all on the same page and we all feel a little bit more comfortable with like okay.
What do the stats like actually actually mean um, but before i get into that, i guess uh. Let me put on more of my serious face. There have been some, i guess like rumors and falsehoods going around about me. You could see it on reddit.
You could see it on twitter, you could see it on youtube and um. There's even like murmurs that, like the new york times, is gon na be writing about it so uh i figured. I should address this publicly with all of you before we really get going today. So my pr team and i decided to uh come up with this statement.
I don't really want to go off script, so let me just read it to you very, very quickly, um. I matthew cores am in opposition to all the recent falsehoods placed against me and no matter what you hear. I unequivocally deny the fact um that i did i mean i i didn't. I did not myself at the gym this morning, uh.
So, no matter what you hear uh, i want you to know from me myself my statement on it. If you read it in the new york times, if you see it on reddit, if you see it on twitter, if you see it on youtube, uh, no matter what they're saying about me, i want it specifically clear. I want to get ahead of this. I 100.
Maybe 100, i there's a very good chance. I did not ship myself at the gym this morning and uh. Honestly, that's going to be the last thing. I say about that.
There's no reason to breathe any oxygen into this. I will not be covering it no matter what people tell you, i just want it out there. I will not be answering any questions that is potentially the truth of the situation, let's just let's just leave it at that all right. Well with all that being said, let's hop over to the show all right.
Let me get this set up, so the s p 500 is looking very good. The queues are looking very good. The russell 2000 looking very good and i was checking out dwack but uh. We have some other news, and this was like just another once again. You've probably heard this remember before about like a potential microsoft, gamestop nft partnership. So i was checking that out, but across the board you're seeing a lot of bulls you're, seeing a lot of bullishness you're, seeing a lot of green you're, seeing a lot of aggressive buying um. Yesterday there was a dip in that pre-market action and then it kind of rallied throughout the entire day. With this i don't know like it, obviously could keep going 100 or it could be the exact inverse of yesterday.
Time will tell, but, as we get a little bit closer to like the market, actually getting underway at least normal market hours, i will be kind of sharing some stats and figures about where we are from a seasonal standpoint. Um. Let's take a quick look at this right now. We still have about 30 minutes to go the dow, the s p and the nasdaq all green green, green oil, pretty much the same sitting at 89 and yield's still sitting pretty high at 1.9 percent.
Very very quick reminder: tomorrow, thursday february 10th. There we will be getting the consumer price index also known as the cpi. This is an important metric for the fed to kind of gauge. What's going on with inflation, so make sure you're paying attention to that tomorrow because that report the cpi consumer price index, it will prompt volatility.
I'm telling you that right now, um they're, expecting over the last month, uh like the reported month to be an increase about of 0.5. The most recent reading year over year was 7.3, which is the like, literally a four decade high, so yeah um. This metric going up or down and the fed is going to use this and definitely take it into account with like their next decisions of what to do with how hawkish should be with how dovish to be that will clearly have an overall macro economic impact. So pay attention to it once again: consumer price index coming out tomorrow, a day before that right here, fed's bostic, says more than three hikes possible this year, but need to see how economy responds.
So he was on cnbc this morning. I believe it was cnbc. I was listening and checking them out and i just wanted to share this with you remember six months ago, seven months ago, eight months ago, they're, like yeah, we're probably not gon na, have any rate hikes and when i say they i'm referring to like overall market Participants, like hey things, are pretty bad they're, most likely going to be accommodated. Well, things have changed quickly, inflation's through the roof, we're about to get another inflationary measurement tomorrow, and it seems like it's kind of interesting the day before they're like well.
Okay, we actually might have more than three, which is maybe i'm thinking about this - a little bit too much, but it's kind of signaling to me that they're trying to get in front of this and get some rhetoric out there that, like yeah, i know inflation's pretty High and we're already prepped to have more than three interest rate hikes, uh, just kind of an interesting thought once again, uh more on. Like the macroeconomic situation, u.s trade deficit hits 859 billion in 2021 and shatters record uh. We don't have to get into too much detail here, but man, oh man, like i like how they're pitching it as if it were like a record that we should be stoked that they're beating uh. I don't know if i necessarily like feel that way about it. Shatters record um: that's not good, like we have an extreme amount of imports, not as clearly not as many exports uh, so interesting information going on there. I just wanted to share a little bit about that now, let's get into some of the specifics for today. In the next couple trading days, stocks set to continue tuesday's rally at open bond yields rip. So, let's take a quick look at the overall market right here we have had four days of a bunch of nothing just a little down a little up, a little down a little up like four training days of absolutely squat.
Well, today, we're gapping up by almost a full percent, we're currently up by 0.93 percent, and it looks like we're getting this breakout of 453.. So what i'm watching in the short term is somewhere between 458 and 460. I will closely be watching that and if we break above 460, then i'm watching 466.. So this pre-market action is bullish, but the one thing i want to point out short-term.
Yes, it's bullish and i want to talk a little bit about seasonality. First, so right here february, this is some data over the past, like two decades, you can see by the time you get to roughly a third a fourth of the way. Through february, you see a seasonal, strong bullish push in the overall market. Well, i ran some numbers this morning there i was cone away, crunching some numbers and one way to normalize data sets for trading is to use trading day of the month because, obviously, like february, whatever ninth might not be the same day, it could be the weekend Of a different february 9th, so you don't want to use the calendar date.
You want to use trading day of the month. Is it the first trading day of the month second trading day of the month, and it's a little bit agnostic of the actual day? Like monday, tuesday wednesday, that type of thing it's a good way to normalize data, you use trading day of the month, and you could also use trading day of the year anyway. Today is trading day of the month number seven. We have have had seven live trading days in february.
Well, when i was running the numbers trading day, number seven and number eight today and tomorrow have one of the strongest bullish connotations in a short-term swing trade that you're gon na see the entire year. Um back texting this on three decades worth of data. If you look at trading day, seven trading day, eight with like, if you're looking, basically at a two three day and you're looking to get out on like your first or second profitable, opening there, the hit rate, the the positive success rate is it's around. 82. 83. 85, depending on how you're looking at it but overall in the profit factor, is even greater so right now, i just want you to know that the odds, particularly today tomorrow, for like kind of a little mini bullish, hold very, very good, now, obviously seasonality. It doesn't always play out, i didn't say 100 and remember: we do have that important, like report tomorrow, so that could kind of throw like a wrench into the overall situation. But i just wanted to let you know a little bit about the odds of what's going on in the bigger picture, but i also want to point out something noticed this morning in maybe a little bit like kind of a longer medium term type of a thing.
I want to point out the potential of a bearish development potential of a bearish development. This very well might be a shoulder ahead, like a very, very classic, like one two, three four five-headed monster followed by another shoulder. If we get above 460, i would argue that this is in an invalid development. It would be an invalid shoulder head shoulder, so that would be good.
That would be bullish, but if this can't really get over that 460 mark, if we kind of get smacked and start to come down, especially if we break back below the 200-day moving average um, there could be concerns that this is setting up more of an overall Medium to longer term, i would just say medium term, like maybe potential bullet or excuse me, bearish surge. So i'm going to be watching this. I'm actually closely going to be watching this for the remainder of the month, just to see if we're actually getting the right shoulder development there. I just wanted to put that on everyone's radar in the bit of the medium term, but in the shorter term, things are bullish right now, as i said, seasonality very, very favorable.
For the overall situation, the queue is coming up, looks like it wants to gap. Fill to this uh, the low from february 2nd and the russell holding above this trendline breakout would love to see a breakout at 205, actually seeing a lot of technical strengths in the russell right now we're seeing a higher low we're seeing a third hit of resistance Around 204, if we could get that breakout, the bulls bought even earlier the second time around, and if we can get that push, i mean from there. I'd be kind of watching around 212-ish um, seeing strength across all major equities and, in fact, we're actually seeing a continuation in strength in crypto. If you are in any way interested in crypto, i'm talking bitcoin ethereum, nfts, metaverse uh, daily news interviews that type of stuff that now all occurs on the crypto into the top of chat.
If you're watching on rumble you're good to go. But if you're on youtube or twitch make sure you're going to crypto cores um, just like that happens at 2 p.m every day and then other than that we put out some extra vod content as well, but i've been getting some questions of like hang on, wait. Where's all your crypto based content, uh we're still doing it literally every single day. It's just on a segmented channel. It was just prompting a little bit too much confusion. Um cvs, talk about parent yum brands leads for before the bell earnings. So we have some interesting earnings movement. Today we had cvs, we had canopy growth, canopy growth actually doing pretty well um.
We had. Yesterday we had chipotle they're up right now you could check out lyft corsair. All these definitely interesting after the market closes today. We're gon na have disney we're gon na have uber definitely need to pay attention to those also mgm.
I i kind of like to pay attention to casinos just to see like the overall bounce back of what's going on earlier yesterday. We didn't really talk about it. Much i want to talk about pfizer, so pfizer did report and what's kind of crazy here, a new top selling medicine pfizer's rhona vaccine. This actually broke records.
Pfizer's registered 36.8 billion for sales in 2021 for the ronan vaccine makes it um. This was this talking about shattering records. This was the best pharma like development in terms of the business. This was a record almost billion dollars if you're looking for the highest grossing pharma product ever it is right here it's right in front of your face.
It is the rona vaccine, particularly from pfizer. We also have coca-cola pepsi, twitter's gon na be coming out on thursday. We have some under armour if you want to take a quick screenshot of this, to pay attention to ones that might have some abnormal amount of volatility. Definitely worthwhile chipotle lyft are pre-market movers uh chipotle.
I thought it was kind of interesting. They were talking about like kind of what's going on and you might be a little bit upset to find out that uh there's a good chance. Chipotle will most likely be raising the price of their burritos. Please do not shoot the messenger on that one.
I am not the one who made that decision. New york set to decide on fate of its rona mask mandates so most likely getting in development there. Recently. We had connecticut new jersey and two others that are kind of stopping the mass mandates for people in school.
It does seem like we're getting kind of to this way of, hopefully quickly rapidly, returning to whatever normal is whatever the new normal is so pay attention to. That and doj says it sees over 3.6 billion in allegedly stolen crypto. This is an absolutely crazy story, uh about bitfenix uh. I covered it a little bit yesterday on the crypto stream and i'll be diving into more detail today.
Today's, like crypto breakdown, but literally billions of dollars, the thing that i think's wild about it is like people get so specific about protecting your seed phrase and using two-factor authentication, and you totally should i'm in no way saying you shouldn't. But what i find particularly nuts about it is when they were storing these passwords. It was literally just like an s3 bucket of like all like the passwords that were connected to billions of dollars. Um these hackers and scammers that's what they did. It was literally just on like a dropbox file, page, which was kind of absurd um. We were talking recently about bill ackman and some crazy things he's done and one of the most recent ones is. He bought netflix at a very, very opportune time. So i just want to share some of his recent purchases.
He bought lowe's like home depot kind of a do it diy thing. He got into chipotle doing very well after its earnings, hilton worldwide uh restaurant brands, international howard, hughes, corporation netflix. We know about that one and domino's pizza. These are all the ones that the i would definitely consider him a form of a wall street legend who's playing with billions and billions of dollars.
Those are all stocks that he just loaded up on. I just wanted to share this list with you in case you were looking for like one way or another, to kind of, i suppose fade what some massive market whales are doing, but that list right there and you can find this article on business, insider uh, just Search this title and you can see the ones that he recently invested in uh. Speaking of other rich successful people, elon musk spacex, says geomagnetic storm wiped out 40 of the 49 starling satellites it launched into orbit last week, um i'm assuming that's a multi-billion dollar problem from him, and i'm assuming it's also going to make like starlink and that type Of stuff like obviously, this is for spacex, but overall, when you're talking about satellites and launching them, okay, spacex needs them, so does starlink um kind of an interesting problem, a geomagnetic storm taking out probably billions of dollars worth of satellites. So i know spacex is not publicly traded, so it's not like you're going to be seeing a dip on some public market.
I just wanted to share that with you, because it i don't know, i see the connections to starlink and that kind of bums me out. I i do very much wish that this was coming along at a little bit of a faster pace, all right, uh final thing, since i know we're all in here a lot of you most likely gamblers. If i had to guess 31 million americans to bet on super bowl, gambling group estimates and the total bets are coming in most likely around 7.6 billion dollars, so this sunday super bowl 56. So the bengals versus the rams estimated that 31 that's one in 10 people, one in 11, 1 in 12 people you get.
The point like a lot of people are betting, a lot of money and with that being said, i would love to know your bets. Um, hey, if you can convince me if you want to put it in chat right now, what's your favorite bet for coming up the coming up super bowl, uh i'll, throw down some money i'll join the 31 million americans, but this i think it's important like i Don't really mean it tongue-in-cheek, because, okay, this is exactly why i'm watching things like draftkings penn, national gaming, all these casino stocks in general. This makes me absurdly confident not only in the next couple years, but probably for the remainder of the decade of gambling sports gambling online sports gambling. That's a lot of people, betting, a lot of money - and i just don't see this wave going away anytime soon. If anything, i think it's going to get bigger and bigger and bigger. So i just wanted to quickly share that with you, especially if you're watching some of those online sports gambling options all right. Moon gang. We got ta talk about some interesting.
I guess data or tex developments uh before we get into that. I want to talk about amc, gme utilization, their numbers and what this all means. So first amc right here: uh we are seeing a higher low kind of similar to the russell 2000. Looking for that breakout above 1660 1670, as i'm filming this in pre-market, that's exactly where we're at! I want to see the breakout of the low 18s from there that opens up the opportunity to 20..
That's what i'm watching to the north side in the short term. In terms of jimmy similar scenario, we are seeing a new higher low, as in the bulls, are stepping in earlier this time around than they did previously. Looking for that breakout, we actually kind of got an important one yesterday, 105, and then it actually got above 112, which i was impressed with looking for the breakout of 120 and then from there i'm watching 130 in the short term right now, aimc gme. If you look at the charts, the higher low that we've had recently is showing the aggression of buyers and it's showing the weakness of sellers.
That's what a higher low gives you. It shows that buyers are just being straight up more aggressive. So, in the short term, i like what i'm seeing, and i also like its confluence, with what we're seeing in the russell overall. We also know that the equities market in mid-february is bullish, and we also know, particularly for the remainder of this week, there's an abnormal bullish bias seasonally.
So all of that is kind of the higher level picture, and we also have some interesting developments. We know amc um, it's buying more arc like pacific theaters or it's acquiring them. They have the the batman, nfts gamestop, some rumors flying this morning that they're in talks with microsoft for nft development - and we know the recent things with loopering and immutablex. So overall market has some developments. The macro fundamental situation related to amc, gme positive stuff coming out. Well, on top of it, we now have a new situation, amc coming in at a short interest of 21 and, as you can see, this has been slowly but surely trending up ever since thanksgiving, we kind of bottomed out around 15.6 and right now, we're cruising at 21 and recently we made an all-time high of 21.8 and in terms of gamestop similar situation, estimated short interest of 22 recently right around thanksgiving, we bottomed out at eight and ever since then the shorts have been loading up and right. Now we're hitting a recent relative high, but we do know previously that gme has been in excess of a hundred percent short interest. So right there, that's already pretty kind of crazy in itself of saying yeah.
No, the shorts are loading up as we're actually seeing some strength in the charts. The thing i really want to dive into is this right here: utilization. 100 utilization 100. This is very fair to be talking about because it's kind of a crazy statistic and i want to really dive into what it means and the common thing is have shorts maxed out.
That's the golden question right. There have mac short out right. Well, okay! Well, have they yes, but also kind of no, and let me explain what it is, but first to be able to explain what this idea, this concept of, like max short level hit we have to get into utilization utilization is a ratio. It has values of zero.
All the way up to 100 percent and when you're looking at that, how do you get that calculation, it's just x, divided by y? It's one number divided by another number. Well, that top number x is the shares on loan. It's shares on loan divided by total loanable shares, so shares on loan. That top value x is the amount that people have been taking off of someone else.
They're like someone else is like offering theirs up and they're like yes, i will take that. I want the opportunity to go short. Thank you for letting me, like borrow your shares off of you. Shares on loan is basically someone who owns the share, loaning it to someone else for the opportunity to go short.
That's the x value, the bottom value. Why is total loanable shares? Well, it's all the people who are willing to loan it out like like it's just because you're willing to loan it out doesn't mean that someone's actually going to take the short and that's why you're getting this ratio so right now. The fact that we're getting 100 is saying that everyone who's willing to loan theirs out. Well, someone actually took that loan.
That's what a hundred percent means um the little bit of confusion, and why i'm diving into this like breakdown, is some. I see a little bit of confusion of people are trying to connect utilization to not being able to buy. Stock utilization has nothing to do with buying stock. It just does buying stock if you're buying stock someone's selling you stock. If you're selling stock someone's buying it off of you, the definition and the utility of utilization doesn't really cross into this world utilization is simply the amount of shares on loan divided by the total loanable shares. So before, when i was saying well, it's kind of true that max shorts have been hit, but also not really at this exact moment in time. Yes, the maximum legal, legitimate shorts have been hit, but remember, x, divided by y. Both of those numbers are dynamic from hour to hour from minute to minute from second to.
Second, people can choose to like return. Their shares on loan and more people who are currently owners can choose to loan theirs out or could choose to not loan theirs out. So both of them can expand and contract these values of x, divided by y. Neither of those numbers are constant uh, they change throughout the day they change like literally every single second, at least.
Potentially they can change every single second, so i just want to clarify what this is, but i also want to talk about some of the other implications of when you see these numbers getting this jacked up, typically and very commonly. If you see these values of 97 98 99 100 utilization - and there is still a demand for shares to go on loan - well think about that. If there's a a demand to go short still, but no one's really loaning it out. That's exactly when you see the cost to borrow also known as ctb go through the roof, because the supply is constrained, but the demand is high.
So obviously, if supply is constrained and demand is high, the equilibrium of the crossover over those two is price and in this case we're talking about the price, to borrow these shares off of a legal, legitimate owner. So i would in no way as if we see this number kind of go up. What's that's telling me is that the pool of people who are willing to loans increasing and we're also probably going to see a spike in cost. To borrow, i don't know the exact number it's going to go to previously.
We've seen some in excess of 500 we've actually seen some that are even more so it can definitely get absurdly bloated. I'm not here to call out the number um i just want to say that, like one implication of utilization going so high is the cost to borrow going higher, which means the people who are holding a short position. It becomes more and more costly for them to hold it. Remember.
If you're invested in a stock, it costs you nothing to hold you hold you hold, you hold, you pay no extra fee. The same cannot be said about going short. Actually, you don't even have to go short. You just have to take a share out on loan once and that's a little caveat right there, because you have a share on loan.
That doesn't mean you went short. It means you now have the opportunity to go short. Just so, you know a nuance there that i just want to explain, but anyway, this costs tomorrow, just because it's out on loan 117 million shares are paying. This are paying 1.2 right now on average uh and remember, that's not the daily fee. This is what you would pay if you held it all year, so you're gon na divide that by roughly 253, that's the rough amount of trading days within a year. So if you wanted to know the daily fee, you would take the amount - and you divide it by like how many trading days there are and that's the one-day fee. So this is an annual rate, but overall remember utilization's jacked up commonly you see the costs of borrow, get jacked up, and that means they're going to pay more and more money. Um - and this is kind of tying back to this concept of shorts - cannot hold forever.
They they can't like they're. They don't have an infinite amount of money. If you were to extrapolate outward in time to whatever point you they're gon na be paying this fee. So these are the situations where um recently it's been kind of an easy go for them, because the stock's been down trending so, like obviously, that's a net profitable movement for them.
Well, now that the stock is showing some strength, utilization's jacked up costs to borrow is getting more expensive. Well, the position's moving against them because the stock's being elevated, but on top of that, it's kind of a double whammy, because they're paying more in fees. So that's kind of the breakdown of the intersection between short interest shares on loan utilization cost, to borrow, and all that i just wanted to share it with you just because right now it is interesting that both amc, gme and i actually know some other equities right Now are maxed out, so i just wanted to share a couple tidbits on how to properly interpret what all this stuff means all right. Now, let's look at this.
The spicier looking strong, the q is looking strong, the russell looking strong. Let me get amc over here. Gme over here, because we have about a minute and a half to go. Let me just get these charts set up and then, when the bell goes ding and ding ding ding, we can also turn it over to you for any questions.
If you need like clarification on utilization or any of that, or if you have questions on charting technical analysis, if you watched the video about covered calls or credit spreads yesterday, if you have any questions there hey, this is the time to do it. Um. Let me get this all switched up very quickly. If i could ask all of you if you haven't already, i would be super super appreciative if you could hit that like button.
It just helps me out with the algorithm whether you're on rumble whether you're on youtube. If you could just take that quick second, if you appreciate this content um, i get it maybe you're mad at me, because you've heard those rumors that i talked about at the start of the stream. Once again, i said i'm not addressing those rumors anymore. It's complete falsehoods, complete falsehoods. So if that's the thing, that's stopping you from destroying that like button. I just want you to know um it's false and i don't care what the new york times says. I will not bow down to that level of mud, slinging pun intended does shorting the iwm etf short stocks, and there are a lot of etfs with massive short interest. So if you short the russell 2000 you're taking a short position on the russell 2000, the way to interpret that is if the russell 2000 goes down.
The people who are facilitating that etf might be selling off a portion of amc. So it's not a direct short on amc. It's an indirect short on amc, ding, ding ding! The casino is open. Let's get going today, let's see how it pans out and i'm actually very interested to see in how some of these vortex values actually like trend throughout the day.
Let's get going, uh saw you unmodded me. No worries just wanted to apologize to you and anyone who feels they were timed out unjustly tried to prevent political unrest. My bad brother, uh wall street viking, i'm not quite sure, what's going on there feel free to dm me, but i'm seeing your messages and everything like all a-okay yeah, definitely uh dm me man, i heard joe rogan is coming to rumble uh. I haven't heard that i know that rumble gave him a big offer, a hundred million dollars over what like four years or something um, but it would be cool um, we'll, we'll see, we'll see, we'll see, we'll see, security cameras stay different matt.
Oh man, all right! Amc, the breakout level of interest is around 1660 1670. Just so you know um gamestop, we're actually kind of at an important level. Now we'd love to see the breakout of 120. uh watching the spy.
I mean 455 strong from here i'm kind of uh, maybe 458, but i really care about 460.. Let's see how this all gets going, let's see how this all gets going shout out thanks. I i see the big influx in likes on both rumble and youtube. I appreciate it.
I appreciate you, oh as we're waiting for the market to open um. I do want to address a hot piece of drama in the finance community. So this morning i have to admit exclu, like exclusionary, of the unverified reports of my incident at the gym. I was like legitimately dismayed and upset, and i kind of felt a little bit shitty, and so what happened was i saw a tweet from tom nash.
Shout out to tom nash - i don't know if you're watching right now, but he had tweeted something about meet kevin and then i looked at me kevin's most recent video and i watched it and basically it's an announcement that he is no longer live streaming, he's not Going to do market open he's not going to do market close and the reasoning for it is basically the internet sucks people are people are trolls people, it blows my mind uh for me. I guess it hit a little bit more home because the likes of graham steffen andre jick and meet kevin. Those are the three guys that i found out about finance youtube. Those were the three guys that legitimately without them, i would have never made a youtube. I would have never attempted any of this. I looked up to them so much. I've watched hundreds of hours of all of their content. They are the guys who started all of this and they have proven track records.
They are very successful not only in the markets but they're very successful in their youtube careers in other business ventures. Those are all people we can learn something from, and it sucks that some guy being absurdly honest. Having good reasoning that he's concerned about the health of the market over the next year, the next year and a half, and because because of that, he decided to make a decision for himself and for his family to pull out of the market. Wait for the his.
I guess prediction of chaos to ensue and then he's going to be buying that dip and people didn't like it, which just blew my mind. This is a guy who has a proven track record and he's being absurdly transparent and now they're like like the fact that people care what other people are doing like you, should care, if they're being transparent but like to for them to express what they're doing and Be completely fully honest about all of it backlash to ensue. Um, i don't know i i find it absurdly frustrating. I i think it's a very negative statement of some of these subcultures that we have found ourselves in in the world of finance creation finance streaming.
That type of thing - and it's honestly i think maybe it hit a little bit closer to home, because i think we're seeing parts of that um in like this community in the quote, unquote ape community, it's so toxic, it's so unpleasant like there folks, there have been Many many days that i woke up and i'm just like i i don't want to do this - like it's - not good for someone's mental health to see the stuff that's going on um. Obviously, i've tried to think about it. Uh slightly differently. I think about it.
In the way of - and i've expressed this before of, i i always hated it in school, when, like one person, was being a dick and the teacher punished the whole class like that, never made sense to me uh, it never ever made sense to me um and Because of that, i kind of am using the same. I guess reasoning here of just because, like a small minorities being a bunch of jerks well right here, we have thousands of people paying attention like. I it never made sense to me to punish everyone else, just because there's like a couple bad apples that are involved in the situation um. So that was like.
I guess the thing that got me through but, like i don't know, there needs to be like uh. I guess greater the community that you find yourself in whatever community that is, and maybe, if it's even outside the world of finance, just like whatever communities you associate with the community needs to hold individual members accountable, because when people pop off like that, especially on someone Like me, kevin who is literally a proven track record and he's giving away free education, free education, honestly, the videos that meet kevin has produced and the information he shared is legitimately better than what you're gon na learn in like business classes in colleges and he's just Putting it out for free and the fact that he was pissed off so much by this like toxic subculture and tribalism, and confirmation bias like what a bunch of babies when people are like. Oh, i don't like that he's out, because i'm bullish - and i want to make money like that's - that's the most absurd level of confirmation bias and we see a lot of confirmation bias in this community in the egg community with amc and jimmy. We see um a lot of fun like all this stuff is stuff that, like it's so unhealthy and it it's all tied to emotions which blows my mind, because if there's to be some gigantic emotionless organism, it's going to be the market. It's going to be the thing right in front of you, so the fact that emotions are playing such a big toll on people and just people want things to be true. I i i just don't get it. This is so factual. This is such a cold, quantitative, type of a thing and you're just seeing emotions boil over and not for the better, definitely not for the better.
So i don't know i i guess i'm just like it saddens me. It really really does uh. I hope he comes back soon way sooner rather than later, but um i've been there. I on a very small scale, like i feel, like i understand a little bit of what he's going through and it's just tough.
So i don't know, here's hope into his like quick return: amc getting that breakout of 1670 next stop the low 18s, the spy showing some strength getting in intraday higher low at 4, 55.. 30 gme 120. The russell 205., the russell coming down a little bit. Remember amc in the top right and the russell on the bottom left if the russell is continuing downward right here, it's going to put some headwinds against amc, so you definitely want to see the russell kind of take the path of the spy put in a higher Low and bounce off of that, just because amc is the largest exposure within the russell about point five percent.
That's another thing that uh when people are talking about the russell's short interest is: don't forget that, yes, it is being shorted, but if you wanted to compute like the percentage impact on amc, it's point: five percent. If you are shorting aim or the russell and the russell's going down, does that have a negative impact on amc 100, but it's not the same as selling amc. It's not the same as shorting amc, because is the direct impact on amc when you do anything with the russell it's 0.5 0.5, not even one percent in the russell 2000 amc has .5 exposure all right spy, looking really good spy. Looking good amc, looking good the gme trying to get that break out of 120 after 120 on gme, we we in 120 from there i'd, be watching 130. 130. stonk stonk, stonks rip and rip and rip, and what else is ripping today? Amc's up five percent jimmy's up three point: four percent lucid's up: four percent rivian's, almost up four percent tesla's up 2.5 looks like it's pushing 950 960. uh bbig up four percent uh. It saved itself at three dollars.
I'd be watching 350. d. Wack is up 2.5 percent a little bit of a rug pull situation. It went from 97 all the way down to 80..
Now it's back up to 87.. Let's see if that can recoup some of those recent sell-offs from two days ago. Um would love for dwack to push that 95 100 level. I still have those dewac calls just so.
Everyone knows uh microsoft, up two percent snowflake up 3.4 and then we have a decent amount of green in crypto. Amc is still cruising along right here. Cruising cruising cruising uh amc, thus far bucking the trend of the russell, the russell taking a little bit of a dip right here, but amc still on a relative basis. Holding stronger can amc carry the russell like amazon's carrying its group um it can.
The question is to what degree like remember what a etf is. An etf is a a basket of like many stocks and in this case it's a back skit of 2 000., so amc yeah, like you're you're, looking at the overall net movement in those 2000. So if amc is doing well, yeah like well, it could potentially be carrying the weight of ones that aren't performing that much atr, i'm down 20, currently holding 430 per share. Do you see potential short squeeze how many days to cover it? What's the utilization any info is appreciated: um ater uh, i mean kind of like amc and gme it's putting in a higher low you're looking for the breakout of 350 and then from there i'd be watching four dollars from a technical perspective in terms of the ortex Values ater.
Let me get back over to this ater short interest of 21.6 utilization of 95 cost to borrow of 6 um. It has some of the numbers there, but i think a big thing that at ater is missing is um even here like i guess you could use this anecdotally. I don't see much people talking about it. Um like it for these types of things, remember most highly shorted stocks go down if you're looking to play the odds, like think of it, the way we track the flow and the whales on unusual whales or tibio or ortex looking at high short interest.
That's another way to check what the whales are doing. If that makes sense, because that means a lot of money is bet on it going down. Statistically, if you look at a pattern of highly shorted stocks, most of them go down um. So i i i'm just reiterating this, because i don't think it's good for anyone to think that it's a valid methodology to simply purchase highly shorted stocks and be like oh, it has to short squeeze. No, it doesn't um, that's kind of in a certain sense. What makes amc and gme so special? Is they specifically gme? It fought against a massive short interest. You don't see those things, that's what um. Statistically it was an abnormality.
It was an outlier, so things like atr. Could it do something 100, but it's running into those various headwinds and on top of that um, i think a way to break down those headwinds is to see a lot of chatter across like social sentiment, whether you're looking at twitter, reddit stock, twits, finn twits. All that stuff - and i'm just not seeing that right now on ater, all right, sweet, sweet, sweet, we're cruising today, um right now, amc we got my first breakout of 1660 1670., the next one, i'm telling you it's the low 18s. It's that's the next level.
We should all be caring about in the short term, is like around 1825.. What's the average time that shorts have been in amc, let me get that information for you 71 days for amc and then for gme. The average short has been holding their shares on loan um. It's the average shares on loan, not short just so.
You know a small difference, but important 45 days on gme, so the average share on loan has been out for 71 days. Gme, it's 45 days. Having issues with uh rumble a hag constantly freezing is also you, but not as bad as rumble or you're. Aware of this stream lag, i am not.
Let me see what's going on, um 30 frames per second cpu 4 and my bit rate is 4 200.. Everything is looking good on my end. Are you guys still seeing issues if you are seeing issues? Maybe just a quick reload um but is are other people experiencing anything hang on. Let me do a speed test of my internet.
Let me see: what's going on ping? Is eight download is 920 930 and let's see what the upload is yeah, the upload is 28, which is it's like as good as you're gon na get on spectrum, not as good as you're gon na get a verizon, but like we should be cruising right now. I mean my speed test: all the numbers are coming in good uh uh is, is aws down or something like that, because my upload, download and ping are solid and my bit rate is solid. Shout out counselor murray. I know you i i always like to ask, but i already know you're diamond handing your eth hope you're having a great day uh.
Can you speak on rumors of a casting couch episode, titled duck down featuring yourself and riley reed um under particular nda uh? I i can't talk about that. Yet breaking news on benzinga depends diapers stuck skyrockets as mccoy poops himself squatting at the gym, destroying the like button. Exactly like matt destroyed his shorts possible shortages across america due to two largest ports of entry being blocked by demonstrators in ontario thoughts on impact play is currently unknown. When blockades will end um, i would have to dive a little bit more into that particular scenario. Um. I i don't know the ports, i don't know the size of the ports like i'd, have to do a little bit more of a deep dive. All right, let's see, what's going the spy pushed the russell's still pushing geez um amc up three point: three: five percent jamie up one point: seven still quite a bit of green uh, see if the is taking a bit of a dip see. Fbi has been like bucking the trend of the overall market lately, but now it's unfortunately bucking it in the unfortunate direction cfei.
I still don't own any of that. Speaking of rumble, let's just check in on it really quickly looks like it's just kind of flagging. Right now, lower highs, higher lows just needs to cool off common common common common common common. All right, let's talk about the whales.
What have has been going on today, uh puts apple, puts and spy puts. We see a big chunk totaling up to millions of dollars. Uh most of these are for 30 days out the only two days out i see a facebook put, i see a spy put five days out, a spy put so the ones that are close, two and five days are all puts thus far, and then we see Another cluster of puts for 30 days out in terms of calls, i do see a tesla call, a tesla call, a google call um the short-term ones definitely dominated by puts thus far this morning. Obviously that can change rapidly.
What else do we have here? Top 10 wall street bets mentions of morning um piton gme amd nvidia, tesla, disney baba, corsair till ray and cvs. This state in market hitch market ends scc is looking into apple's use of non-disclosure agreements. Whistleblower says i wonder if that's why we're seeing some puts um betting against apple, potentially like worried about the like? What's going on with the sec, investigating them potential potential potential um? And we need to wait about another half hour to see some of these values from uh tiblio all right interesting day. Thus far, jamie pushed amc pushed taking a little bit of a breather right now, as the russell is coming back down.
Remember, there's most likely going to be not the perfect correlation, but a strong correlation between the russell and amc, and we know there's a correlation between amc and jimmy. Thus, there is still a correlation like, albeit a weaker correlation between the russell and gme gme used to be in the russell just so everyone knows, but uh. It was move in may of 2021 when they were rebalancing the indices. Uh gme at that point had such an elevated value that it got moved up to the s.
P 400 um, like kind of mid cap 500, is large check out, come down what the spy is coming down a bit. Why did i just see everything? Flash green, hello man - i i don't get what's going on in this one. This should be. The numbers on my end are solid, like.
Why is i'm seeing that a lot of people are having issues glitch? I'm gone, am i gone? Can you hear me it stopped for a second, but it's back up lost connection game over. Am i let's try the old restart button and see how that works? All right, i just did the old restart that should help i'm back. I think some people are saying. I'm back, i think spectrum aka cox might be the worst worst internet possible. You know who this vid, video isn't sponsored by this. Today's stream is brought to you specifically not by those pieces of crap over at spectrum over at cox, worst internet. Ever i'm not saying verizon isn't without their faults, but jesus spectrum is awful. You know i need to get into that um just so you know i am still in the talks with verizon and basically begging.
You know i'm gon na text, the guy - i i'm on this point of talking to them so much. I actually have the number of one of the guys that have been like begging to bring verizon internet to me, shooting them a text to upload right. It seems like once a week i just get screwed on this. I'm gon na build my own fiber line.
That's the plan, i'm gon na start, my the moon, gang moon, gang internet company. That's gon na be the newest development. I will um. Oh, oh, oh, oh, as we're waiting for this chart to like build out a little bit more today.
I do have an idea, and my idea is that okay yeah i've done sponsors before like we're sponsored by this company that company and it's always positive stuff. I think i need to be the youtuber who gets into the world of negative sponsorships. I think verizon should pay me to talk on spectrum, which i would happily do because i'm already doing it for free, but you know how like in politics they have like those negative ads. I feel like no streamer has really thought about look.
Okay, let's do negative based sponsorships um. You really only see that in politics, but i think we could bring it into the world of advertising as well. So let me just know, let me know if there's anyone out there who's like owns and operates a company or maybe you're just connected with the marketing team of a company. If you want to yeah, let's do that, let's do some negative based ads.
Our first target is going to be spectrum. I see some people excited about prague how's that one pulled out today, prague, prague, prague, hopefully on the way back to two dollars - spy trying to get a little bit of a bounce amc holding at 17. popped up to 1740 1750, taking a breather chilling at 17. Right now, uh walked away and amc went down well ec, don't walk away even with the break, i'm still hitting the rumble plus for your show.
Thank you. I appreciate that people are asking about bkkt uh up 8.6. I believe this is related to a crypto play and i think it does have a decent short interest as well uh, so hey the shorts might be under problem like kind of underwater on that, but look at crypto crypto's having a great day eth is trying to Push to a new relative high would love for it to get to 3400 btc trying to break out as we speak. The next level i'd be watching is right around four thousand six hundred we'll call it sheep showing a lot of strength, we'll be talking about that. In more um detail later in the crypto stream avalanche, bouncing off of like the low 60s, all the way up to 90 money money money to be made. What else do we have not getting taken down bullish all right, all right, all right looks like i need to reload this myself. I think we're good. I think we're back to where we should be gary at 10.
Gary gensler is talking at 10. Should we do a live reaction to gare? Bear uh gare bear gary gensler. What's our boy gary up to today, 10 a.m? Open commission meeting a few things on our agenda: private funds, shortening settlement cycles and cyber security in the financial sector watch live at sec.gov, open meeting today at 10 a.m. We can definitely check that out and as long as it's not like absurdly boring, i find that sometimes these are things that are best for me.
Just like recap, open meeting today, 10 am no. I won't give feedback all right. We have it. I'm waiting uh as soon as they start talking i'll share this with all of you, oh bkkt, ripping right there ripping right there, oh whoa, that stream got crushed uh.
Could you check crs? I feel like there's a short bs going on. They beat on earnings yesterday, stock went up after hours, but then got smacked out of nowhere. Everything else is up makes no sense morning may have a smaller portfolio, don't risk et cetera. Have a nice prog call this week, any good smaller puts calls plus to look for this week.
Um i mean i in terms of smaller. I think you just mean like on the cheaper side which you can find in expensive or non-expensive stocks, because that's more like the in the derivatives market um, i guess i don't know really how risk-prone or risk-adverse you are. I mean b-k-k-t, like people have been getting excited about. People like you, said you're already in prague.
People are getting excited about prague. Obviously, amc in uh, the moon gang group. They crushed gamestop, calls yesterday um. I if you want to be a little like.
Obviously, things are moving to the upside. It's an interesting time, because tomorrow the consumer price index is going to push the market higher and higher and higher, or it's going to pull it lower, lower and lower and everything's going to get rugged. So it's an interesting time because you're kind of betting on a binary event, unless you're trying to bet on a company that might buck the trend of the overall market, maybe because of earnings. So uh, for example, like disney and under armour, is going to be reporting on friday.
You have twitter, so maybe if you feel a certain way about those, you could try to play off of earnings once again, it's just kind of a different binary event. Um. I don't know, there's i think the play right now, i'm kind of waiting to get on the back side of this announcement with cpi, but i do want to let you know that the overall market right now has a strong bullish push uh. If you were to look at the s p 500, which here let me just throw up the spy for a second, i honestly think you could do an expiration date of like mid next week. You could probably get in at some point today which, honestly this current value, not so bad and if you just want to quit, get a quick like 10 gain. I think that's a very reasonable play um. I think that's an incredibly reasonable play spy next week. Expiration.
Look to get out today, um get in roughly at the money a little bit out of the money you get it and right away. You set your profit target at something like 5 10, 15 um, just based on the odds of what we have today tomorrow and uh friday uh i'm bullish and the only thing that i think could really mess it up is the cpi. So i guess a market call a spy call, a cue call, a russell call at the money slightly out of the money next week, expiration and i wouldn't get too greedy with it. I would try to lock in my 5 10 15 at like asap, asap all right and then someone else was asking about corsair cr sr u.s securities and exchange commission on february 9.
2022.. I want to welcome members of the public who are listening in today.
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