So moon gang good morning good morning, good morning, happy friday, tgif. It is friday, february 11th and man. Oh man. It is the final trading day of a pretty weird and wild week.

So what i want to do before that bell goes ding ding, ding, ding ding. Today is kind of go over some of the main things a recap of yesterday of what happened uh. I did make a standalone video of like. Why did everything kind of look good and then why did the rug get ripped uh? So we're going to be talking about that, and i also want to call out some things that i really think everyone should be paying attention to at the start of next week we have additional important announcements, so we're going to be going over all that, then i Have some interesting stories i want to cover a little bit more of what happened with the firm um.

I know a lot of you might have been paying attention to that yesterday, kind of some crazy and, in my personal opinion, some pretty like sus things happened with the firm yesterday and then we have some macro economics, macro economic and also like kind of geopolitical that Could have an impact on the market and then, of course, we're going over short interest and all that stuff for the spy, the cues, the russell amc gme, and i also want to get into a little bit of talk about psychology. But overall, this is the final trading day of the week. Let's get prep to end the week on a very, very strong note and then hey. We can kick back and enjoy the weekend.

So with all that being said, let's hop right into it. So, as you can see very quickly right here, the spy popped in the morning yesterday then went flat, rug, pull and now we're fighting back a little bit same thing with the q's and we're seeing a general same pattern. Amc jimmy this is not specific in any way to a particular equity. Yes, some equities bucked the trend because they had a special announcement, a special catalyst, an earnings report, something along those lines, but barring any of that, everything kind of yesterday had this vibe of it was down in pre-market.

It popped early, went flat and then around 12 30, 12 45. The rug got pulled and we will be getting into exactly why that occurred, but before we get into that just so, you have a better idea of what's going on right now, you are seeing things about like a little bit of bullishness in pre-market and i'm a Fan of that, the dow, the s p and the nasdaq futures are all up green oil, pushing 91 and yields just under 2, remember yields and the nasdaq. Recently we've been seeing an inverse relationship. As yields go sky high.

We see the nasdaq fall as the nasdaq bounces, we see yields come down, so that's probably a good way to think of. It is not the strongest correlation, but there is an inverse relationship, definitely between the nasdaq and the yields and then because so many of the biggest players in the nasdaq are some of the biggest players. In the s p, there ends up being a similar correlation there. Um, albeit a little bit, looser all right.

So let's talk about the things that you kind of need to know about this morning. Stock futures, flat after route on inflation fed fears, okay. So this is the big thing that happened yesterday. Let me bring up this chart.

Let me go to the 15 minute yesterday, before the market opened at 8 30 eastern, we got the consumer price index report. This is just a measure of how really much prices are increasing for you to buy everything every single day, things that you need to buy. So basically, it's a weird measure of the devaluation on your dollar and then there's also the producer price index and that's more of like okay for producers. How much is materials going up in price that one actually comes out this upcoming tuesday? So, on tuesday we get that additional inflationary gauge, so consumer price index cpi came out yesterday thursday, this upcoming tuesday we'll get the producer price index.

Those are both gauges that the fed pays attention to and when they're looking at it, it's like. Okay, how bad is inflation? Is it truly transitory, as we've been telling everyone, or do we need to? Is it a serious problem that we need to fight? Well, as you probably well know, the consumer price index it came out yesterday and it came in on the year over year was at 7.5 percent, where the expectation was closer to 7.2 and over the past month. It came in at 0.6 when the expectation was 0.4. So both expectations were already sky high for month over month and year over year, and the actual results came in higher than that.

So this was signaling to the rest of the world and also the fed that no inflation, it's here, it's serious! You got to do something about it and then, when you pair that, with the report from a week or two ago, when the unemployment super low and the jobs jobless, claims came out yesterday, but also the previous jobs report, all looking good. So we have this scenario where inflation is sky high and the economy is actually better than expectation, so inflation higher than prediction economy actually stronger and like coming in better than people expected it to this. This weird combination is basically telling everyone that the fed is about to go super hawkish and that's exactly what we saw and then so from here you saw the sell-off. Then there was this early morning, enthusiasm which didn't make the most sense to me, but hey.

Sometimes i get things wrong um, but i i didn't really hop onto this like fomo train or anything like that. It seemed like a little bit sus just giving the report and then what happened was around 12 30. 12 45. We had bullard, who is one of the fed members.

He came out and said: hey we're actually at first we know, there's going to be the tapering, the asset purchasing of mortgage-backed securities and of bonds and helping the repo market. All that stuff is going to end at the start of march. That's a done deal. The question in march was: what's the rate height going to be, we know, there's going to be a rate hike.

We just didn't know how much hike the rates are going to get hiked um. A lot of people are like: okay, it's going to be 0.25, but there's like a certain percentage chance of it being 0.5 and then after the cpi came in, it quickly jumped up to a 50 chance of a 0.5 rate hike and then other people were saying. Well now, there's a 60 chance, and it seems like, as this is going on, the chances of march being a 0.5 rate, hike are going higher and higher and higher, and it could jump once again when we get the producer price index on tuesday. All of this stuff of like how does it connect well if we hike all this stuff, this, this methodology of being hawkish, these tools of being hawkish, they battle inflation, but they have a side effect of being less accommodative for the stock market.

So this is the side effect you're seeing is like okay, we know they're battling in inflation and in the tools that they're using to battle it. You see a drop off in the overall market, it's less accommodative to the stock market. That's the best way to like kind of pair all this together, but this is the scenario that played out and, as you can see, we're seeing some strength right now. Obviously this could bounce back above 450.

451. I'm not saying this has to keep going down. For me personally, i care about the 200-day moving average on the s p 500, which is at 444.. I want to see the test of it if we bounce off of it great i'll, be bullish on the overall market.

If we test and we break down, then i'll be bearish, i am going to play the 200-day moving average on the s p 500, either the bounce or the breakdown i'm just waiting for that test of whatever it is right now around 444 and we're gon na Get some movement volatility on tuesday, but then once again, most likely on wednesday. Why am i talking about wednesday of next week, tuesday producer price index wednesday? We get the fed meeting minutes. That's basically a recap of what happened in the most recent fomc meeting. Most of the time people don't care about this, so, for example, december 15th.

This was an fomc meeting day and people liked it they're like okay, we get that you have to raise rates. All good, that's acceptable, so we had a green day. Then it did its thing, then we got the meeting minutes on january 5th from the meeting that occurred on the 15th. This went red and it really prompted this entire sell-off, because this was the first time that we heard about balance sheet normalization, which is absurdly hawkish.

That's them not only right now, we've been buying buying buying this is them fixing it and they can either let it mature and run off, or they can actually actively do some selling, which selling obviously downward pressure. So in the meeting minutes we got more information from the actual meeting that wasn't publicly discussed so this time around on wednesday, people are like okay. What are the meeting minutes going to hold for us this time? So once again, tuesday, we have the producer price index. You got to pay attention to that and then on wednesday, we're going to get that fomc meeting minutes and depending on what is or isn't in there.

There might be surprises like there previously was on january 5th and obviously, as this stuff is all playing out in reta real time i'll be letting you know about all of it so like i'll, be here i'll be covering it just so everyone knows, but i'm just Trying to let everyone really be in tune with the fact that yes, we're about to end this week, we're pretty much getting out of earnings season. So we don't have to expect volatility from individual big reports. Tesla apple, microsoft, yada, yada yada. The list goes on, but we still do have like fed updates, tuesday producer price index, wednesday fed meeting yeah fed meeting minutes from the most recent fomc meeting, and all this for me is coming down to.

I want to see the test and the reaction to this teal line right here: the 200-day moving average. If we come down and bounce test it and bounce great, let's go bullish. If we come down the test fails and we break down. Well then, i'm going to go a little bearish, i'm going to be watching 428 and all this stuff pretty much is the same.

It applies the same to the qs. It plays the same to the russell uh. These three will most likely move in concert together. So obviously, when this all happened at 12, 30, 12 45.

Yesterday, that's when we really started to see this off nasdaq drops two percent. After fed's jim bullard said he faces aggressive rate hikes after inflation um right now. A lot of people are actually at first they're, like okay. We might be at one percent by the end of the year now, given all of this things have changed quite a bit.

There are seven more fomc meetings this year unless they do like emergency ones, and people are now saying. There's gon na be six rate hikes. At one point we wanted to end at one percent. Now people are saying big banks are calling out for the fact that we might end at 1.5.

All of this stuff, you don't have to get into the nitty-gritty of the details, but what you need to know is as they go up. This is just more and more hawkish, remember more and more hawkish. It helps fight inflation, but a side effect of it is that it's less accommodative to the overall market. I was already more hawkish, but i have pulled up dramatically what i think the committee should do.

Um, so this type of commentary that happened midday, that's exactly what led to let's call it: the quote-unquote rug, pull that we saw in the midday training session 10-year yield hold above 2 at august 2019 highs right here. This all makes sense of what's going on. Deals are obviously going to go up with the prediction of what the fed's going to do with the rate hikes: dow s, p, 500 and nasdaq weekly gains on the bubble, and it's 100 all because of this, this is the macroeconomic environment uh right now, the party Is not being ruled by the movement of individual equities? If you want to know what's going on in individual equities, you got to know what's going on in the overall market, because that's the prevailing, tailwinds and currently headwinds. You got to pay attention to this stuff, especially if you want to be involved in the market.

Obviously, if you're messing around with indices but even with individual equities, not every day is meant the same. So, for example, we were talking about this a little bit earlier in the discord this morning. This concept of stocks being able to move as easily as they did in 2021 is a complete falsehood. In 2021, interest rates were zero.

There was extra money. Liquidity was easy in terms of your personal capital. People were getting stimulus, checks, um, the environment was just wildly different wildly different this year, 2022 is not built the same as 2021 interest rates are going up, we are not being backstopped by the fed; they are not doing their asset purchases anymore. That's ending in a couple weeks, and on top of it we have other things that obviously we need to bring to your attention.

There still are looming geopolitical conflicts right now between the russia and the ukraine. Uh that border right there, um tensions are still rising. Biden tells us citizens to leave ukraine immediately amid troubling signs of russian escalation. President joe biden has issued a warning that u.s citizens should leave ukraine immediately as tensions with russia over its military activity.

Continue to intensify secretary of state anthony blicken on friday also urged americans to leave ukraine warning an invasion could begin at any time. Meanwhile, british prime minister, boris johnson, warned on thursday things are as dangerous. I've seen them in europe for a very, very long time and on top of it another one coming out a mere few minutes ago, japan urges its citizens in ukraine to leave immediately uh. This escalation is very prominent.

It's people are covering it. Obviously you have world leaders telling their citizens to get out um. This is a thing where, like the pot is boiling and the question now, is it gon na boil over? Obviously you don't want it to. This is a thing where there could be millions of refugees.

Millions of people displaced and obviously tens of thousands of potential casualties between like civilians and soldiers. It's not a good scenario, and it like this stuff, is not fun to cover because, like you're literally talking about people's lives here, um, but with it, it's something. Yes, um. Just because it's bad that doesn't mean you don't cover it, because it has implications not only being hey just a citizen of this world and it's good for you to know.

What's going on and pay attention, but obviously it could have drastic implications on global markets. Um, particularly on energy markets, but obviously, whenever you get this type of stuff, it like clearly clearly can have implications um on various various levels. So you got to pay attention to it. So, overall, 2022 not built the same as 2021 from a geopolitical situation from a macroeconomic situation.

It is not easy, at least in the short term, for things to go high, at least as high as they did in 2021. It's the fight is a bit more um. It's not, we don't have those prevailing tailwinds in fed. Instead, we have prevailing headwinds on some positive notes morning, movers under armour zillow and affirm.

So right. Here we had some earnings announcements. Um under armour beat they're up zillow b they're up a firm is a little bit of a different story currently down in pre-market, but a firm had a really really weird day: a firm tumbles 10. After the buy now pay later, fintech's twitter blunder revealed details of its earnings early.

So if you paid attention to a firm yesterday, super super weird day, absurdly weird day before the market closed, there was a human error that gave out the report early and, as you can see, right before power hours started around 2 45 east coast time. It sold off got crushed uh. Then there was a halt. Then there was a hall a little bit of a pop and then it came off.

But anyway this shouldn't have happened. This information should be going out after the market closes, but it didn't. It came out an hour 15 75 minutes before the market closed, and this costs a lot of people a lot of money. And if you really look into it, it's even more strange and it's even more odd, because what? If you see what was tweeted, which actually it might be right in this report - um, it was actually pretty positive, so they did have a follow-up tweet due to human error, a small portion of the firm's physical q2 results were inadvertently.

Tweeted from the official twitter account earlier today has since issued a complete fiscal q2 results which are available here very, very odd. The initial tweet that prompted all of this was actually pretty positive and it wasn't until later, when people diving into the numbers, and they realized that maybe some of the 2022 targets because of fees, maybe not as ideal, but this sell-off. In my opinion, i didn't see anything that justified it getting hit by 38. This is a buy now pay later company that has partnered up with very serious people such as, i believe, shopify, amazon apple.

The list goes on and on like this is a very legitimate company, so to see this type of volatility, especially after a positive tweet. I know when you actually got into the full numbers. Things were not as as bullish, but overall this thing got rocked and i'm just i guess, bringing it up because to me this it just it's so absurdly fishy something about this movement just does not make sense in any way either some massive whale got out and They use this twitter blunder. The human error as like kind of a smoke screen and maybe in um x, amount of time we're about to get a very negative report or on the flip side they rugged it.

They know how good a firm is under the hood and they're just buying it at a cheaper price and they're gon na run this back up from 50 right back up to 80.. I don't know what it is. I i don't and i wish i did. I would tell you and i'd, be like hey, i'm playing it this way, i'm playing it that way, i'm not playing a firm at all.

All i'm saying is this. Whole situation is super super sus. Even when you dive into some of the specifics of a firm and what's going on here, let me bring up a firm's options. Most of it yesterday was bullish.

Look at all these calls zero days 35 days, bullish, bullish, bullish bullish, but there were a few lucky parties who got it right spot on a firm 78 put a firm 50 put a firm 70. put a firm 75 dollar put now. Obviously, as you can see from all these calls, like most people were published, the options market for a firm was absurdly bullish, but someone out there whether they're, just the luckiest person on the planet - or i don't know, what's going on, but ma'am they got in at Noon and about two hours later three hours later, this 300 000 bet probably probably 10x, because it was absurd how lucky they possibly got now. Once again, i am trying to illustrate that it's not like.

We saw this absurd trend in the options market and everyone knew it bullish, bullet or excuse me, bearish, bearish parish. In fact, most was bullish, but there were either someone that was in the know, or just some of the luckiest people on the planet with three four individual puts that they got man. Oh man, it was wild, absolutely wild. So i just wanted to cover all that and last but not least, uh biden tells americans in ukraine to get out now we already covered that.

Obviously we have intensifying geopolitical situations um. So that's what i have for you and then i do want to go over a quick psychology thing, but before we do that, i want to actually make sure we have enough time to do some of this chart review. Just because i think it's that important right now, the s p 500 is at 449.24 uh once again just to drive it home. I am watching 444..

This t-line is the 200-day moving average. If we bounce great i'll, be bullish on this spy. If we break down, i will be bearish on the spy at is 100. What we're gon na see in uh the overall market, the cues.

You can't really use the 200 because we're below it, we just got rejected there and we gap filled um in the short term i'll be equivalent to the s p. 500. 200 moving average. I would assume that's going to be the test of 352 by the qs same thing.

If it bounces great, let's be bullish on tech. If it breaks down, i will be bearish all the way to 340 and then with the russell. The russell recently has actually been outperforming. You don't see this that often usually the spy and the queues are doing better than the small cap sector, but recently the russell iwm is actually outperforming and that's actually leading to a pretty nice success.

By like individual equities such as amc, remember, amc has the biggest showing in iwm, even though it's the biggest it's still only 0.5 of the overall etf. Just so everyone knows, but right here we got a breakout, it failed, we bounced from there and we got a breakout that is currently holding um. So i very much want to see it above 205.. We could watch the support at 202 and then below that you have 197 to 200., so those are roughly the levels i'm watching on the spy, the qs and the russell, and just so you know right now.

The s p 500 has an estimated short interest of almost 26 with the utilization of 88. The nasdaq. This short interest has severely dropped up before it was in excess of 30 pushing 40 and right now it dropped all the way to 8 and the utilization is down to 70.. And finally, we have the russell which is actually doing the best.

But the short interest is the highest, almost at 49, with a utilization of 96. Now, with all that, out of the way, let's take a quick look at amc, so amc hey, it's actually still doing pretty well like i get that it pulled back yesterday and it dropped by 1.8. But don't forget in the past three days: it's still up. 25 um, i think, there's like a lot of i don't know.

Maybe people just have a short memory like that type of an argument, but don't forget like if you're in this, like the day-to-day the minute to minute minutiae of movement, it's not going to matter to you like if you're diamond handling, if you're actively training it. That's a completely different story, but i saw some people. I guess the best way i could describe it was like upset that we were down 2 1.8. Well, please remember the spy, the cues and the russell all vomited and you know amc actually held up pretty well and don't forget in three days: it's up 25, a 25 or if you go for two days, a 27 gain and then a 1.8 drawback.

I will take that wash rinse repeat sign me up for that. That is beautiful. Really it ran right up into resistance, got rejected at resistance and right now we're still kind of holding the higher low w. Whatever you want to call it double bottom, but right now we're actually up in pre-market.

Overall, i, i guess um just that negativity of like what happened yesterday. I think it's actually very unwarranted, because overall things are looking nice, at least in the short term. To me, i mean look at this three-day push and given the short interest man, i mean i like what i'm seeing and i just want to see it hold above 1825, and i want to see that additional test of the low 20s but i'm liking the short Term chart right now in terms of gme similar situation over the past couple days, we've had a 26 run and then it pulled back by 1.5 percent, so very much in the same scenario of the short terms. Looking good, don't just get um uh the emotional aspect, the psychological aspect don't focus on like oh man, it's down 1.5.

I mean look at where we just like the rip over the past week. The last week we are looking good. I mean jimmy in the past week's up 23 in the past week. Amc is up 25, that's a winning week and we have not had many winning weeks lately.

Let's hang our hat on the fact that, like no things look good in the short term. The golden question is: is: will momentum be continuing in the bullish way? Is it going to continue, i guess to develop, intensify. That is the golden questions. Where is this momentum going to lead us to um? So that's the quick chart on amc gme.

Looking for the hold on amc of the low 18s, the breakout of the low 20s and in terms of jimmy we'd love to see that hold of 110 112 ish and looking for the breakout of 130. in terms of amc and jimmy amc, has a short interest Of 22 percent and the utilization of 100 and gme has a short interest of 21 and a utilization of a hundred percent before we get into the psychology thing. I do want to explain something to you, because i saw um asked a very good question this morning and i think i can offer a little bit of clarification uh right here. This was tweeted by the mass investor.

If you don't know, he is another ape in the community he's a fellow vod creator: content creator, streamer, hey ortex in may 2021, the cost to borrow for amc was 19, while the short interest of free float was 22 and the short interest was 91.5 mil. Why are we not seeing higher with both metrics? How is it cost to borrow 1.48? Is it actually 14.8? Thanks for all you do just looking for clarification um. This is a very, very good question and i think i can maybe use like a metaphor to like explain how it's actually not directly tied to the magnitude of short interest, not directly tied to the magnitude of well. I guess the short interest percentage and the short interest itself costs to borrow when you're looking at this right here of like what it is or what it isn't all it is, is the supply and demand of shares out on loan and how many can be online.

So, for example, you could be in a scenario where, let's just actually use amc's numbers utilization is jacked up and the shares on loan is 120 million. Let's just call it 120 million, as in there's not many more like for it to go higher. There would have to be new players in the game who are willing to loan out their shares. So, basically, all the shares that are willing to go out on loan are out on loan.

Well, this is a good question. How does cost to borrow get jacked up? It's all supply and demand how many people want to take new shares out on loan and how big is that pool of total loanable shares right now, if there's 120 million out on loan, and only there's only only a desire for 120 million to go on loan. You're not going to see a spike in costs to borrow because the supply is maxed out, but there's no additional demand. Now, on the flip side, let me use this scenario.

Let's say that people are only willing to loan out 50 mil like let's cut this by more than half instead of 120 ml. Let's say we're at 50 mil: okay! Well, the number is quite a bit lower, but if there's a demand, if there's like an appetite to actually short, let's say 60 mil well, you could see the cost to borrow: go sky high, even though we're at lower values. On the flip side, let's say that the shares on loan is jacked up all the way to 200 million, but there's only a desire for even higher number than this - let's say 150, but there's a total pool of 200 well. That means your utilization is down at 75 percent and the short interest is actually going to be higher and both in terms of magnitude and also the free float.

But in this scenario there's no appetite for that leftover one. So the cost to borrow is going to be quite a bit lower, so there are mathematical like slights of hand where you can have a higher short interest and a higher short interest, like percentage with a lower cost to borrow, or you can actually mathematically see it Inversely, where the short interest, both magnitude and short interest, are lower, the percentage are lower, but the cost to borrow is higher once again and like it's all like a weird mathematical slight of hand scenario. But it's all about the supply and demand. How many are willing to go out on loan and how many people want those ones that could potentially go out on loan? If there's massive demand relative to supply, it's all a relative basis, massive demand relative to supply.

Well, that's when you get your cost to borrow to spike, but if the demand is lower relative to the supply, that's when you're going to see a low cost to borrow so the way i would interpret this right now is pretty much the appetite for people who Want to take shares out on loan is almost perfectly being met, at least by the morning's numbers. This stuff is very dynamic. It changes minute to minute throughout the day, but that's probably the best way to think about it. Don't tie costs to borrow to the magnitude of short interest of free float and the magnitude of current short interest, it's more so of looking at the shares on loan and the total loanable shares, and what's the ratio of supply and demand in that breakdown? It's a great question and it prompts a lot of confusion and i i take.

I know it takes a little bit to get your head wrapped around, but it really truly is a great question and before that bell goes ah i'm going to cover this in a little bit just because that bell is about to go diggity ding ding ding, but I did want to talk a little bit about this like psychology piece that we found, so let me get switched over here. Let me get switched over and why we are waiting for this hang on one second ding ding ding. The casino is open, all right. The casino is open for the final training day of the week.

We are talking about friday, friday, friday, friday, folks, we are moving higher and higher and higher nice little morning pop, let's see if it holds, and while we're waiting for this to get going um. This breakdown of supply and demand and the intersection with costs to borrow, let me know if, like there's any confusion or questions about that, uh would love. I mean if you want me to come up. I could try to come up with like a different metaphor and maybe like try to explain it, but if that answered people's questions, i guess we could just leave it there, but we are seeing some bullishness at start.

We are seeing some bullishness, it's the old, the old mathematical sleight of hand. It'll get you every time, get you every time, oh getting that pop okay amc beautifully, holding above that 1825 area. The next level we care about. I mean you could watch the key psychological level of 19.

It struggled there a little bit yesterday on an intraday basis, but the main level i care about is those low 20s about 20 25. uh. What kind of ball do we have someone's asking about? The vault 1.75 mil already on amc, not a bad deal on gme 72, so light right now. Gme's opening volume is pretty light.

Um we have the spy up, but i do want to see a firm just to see how this reacts, because i think there could be some craziness in afrm. Explain it using bananas, okay, um! I can explain it using bananas. Okay, let's say i run a banana stand, there's always money in the banana stand and let's say all of you are my ape. Shoppers who like to buy bananas like the question is, is how how much is a banana? How much can i sell bananas for well? Let's say: there's 10 apes at my banana stand and i have 10 bananas.

Okay. Well, that's a pretty fair price like i'm gon na be selling it for my normal, a dollar a banana. I have 10 bananas. There's 10 apes supply and demand is like kind of perfectly in line there.

Well, what happens if there's 10 apes in line, but i have a hundred bananas, i'm just trying to get rid of bananas and i'm hoping that you're going to buy two bananas. So i might sell them for cheaper what if, on the flip side, there's 10 apes in my banana stand line, but i only have two bananas well because of supply and demand i'm going to sell them for more. So in this scenario, you, if i'm to tie this to short interest, magnitude and short interest percentage of free float, that would be saying well, hang on. There's a hundred apes and a hundred bananas.

When really what's the difference between a hundred eighths and a hundred bananas or ten apes and ten bananas when supply and demand is perfectly in line, so that's why i'm saying you shouldn't focus purely on the number of apes or purely on the number of bananas. You need to focus on the relative amount of how many apes are there and how many of those apes want bananas. It's the relative amount between the two supply and demand. So it's a ratio, not magnitude, just looking at short interest, just looking at short interest percentage means you're, looking just at the amount of apes in the banana stand line.

It's you're just looking at how many bananas i'm willing to sell when, in reality, the cost of a demit of a banana is 100 demand dependent on not how many bananas i have, but how many demand bananas i have relative to how many apes are in the Banana stand line, so i think that actually makes better sense. That's actually a better metaphor: i'm confused about bananas. Okay, maybe it wasn't a good, but it is at least it's friday, which means fancy shirt, fancy shirt fridays, you better all have on your fancy. Shirts, i mean it actually is a good metaphor.

So, like i, i think that should make sense all this banana talk is making me hungry. Explain it using your eyebrows, no words uh, who wish too complicated. Please use the duck analogy. We'll have to come up with something will have to come up with something logan all right, uh.

So once again, the s p 500 moving average. I am personally paying a test attention to is 444, which is, as you could tell about, five dollars less than where we are currently at. But let's see how this gets going today, let's see how this gets. Rockin amc similar to yesterday struggled on its first attempt of 19.

um. Obviously we want to see the retest i think for this to re-test, so you're going to want to see the spy, the cues and the russell, particularly the russell, really start to pop um. If there's russell's going down, if that basket of 2 000 individual equities is going down, it's going to be tough for amc to like buck. That particular trend all right, so we saw a pop in the morning quick sell-off, just volatility up down up down.

Let's see how this really structures itself, i like this. Someone just said that amc's crashing how's it crashing it it's. It was just green. Like you said it was crashing when it was literally in the green, and now it's just barely red.

What's going on brendan. Ah man, man, man, there's always money in the banana stand. What's an amc uh? What is bbig doing? I see some people asking about baby bb ig, currently down 1.2 um bbig, that breakout level is 350 and then from there 377. So this one's down a little bit, i'm just not being able to hold those levels from the overall market knock yesterday brutal market knock yesterday uh.

Let me check in on the russell the russell trying to bounce the q's trying to bounce but trying to bounce the least so the russell and the spy trying to come back uh, quick, pop undone trying to undo the undo. It's just control like i don't know. Just copy paste delete copy paste it there's just i don't know the market shrunk this friday. Let's see how this actually ends up playing out.

Let's see if there's any more early morning uh, i want to see the early early early morning, wales, what wales got out of bed a spy put a spy put nvidia call google call shop, call spy, put tesla, put spy put spy puts. By put these. These puts on the spire, there is some short-term ones, but most are a little bit longer. Spy puts by put uh spy put tesla put baba call some baba calls coming in some spy puts coming in some spy calls coming in 447, 447.

420. Oh interesting! So more the thing dominating the day, thus far this morning are spy, puts not necessarily expiring. Today, though, giving themselves a little bit of like runway, hey matt, i have 42.50 puts on lift up 100. The expired today.

Do you think, there's a good chance. It will continue down um y f t, lift, lift, lift, lift um, i mean, obviously it could you're. You need the breakdown of 4175 support support, support support. So for me it's a friday you're up a hundred percent.

I would personally lock in it i'm not telling you what to do. I mean this thing could come down test and break and you might go up 200 300, but if you're expiring today i mean it's a friday. If you're up money lock it in like a bird in the hand, is worth two in the bush like it could keep going, but that's not the way. I would do it for me.

It's a friday, i'm up a hundred percent on something expiring that day, because right now, you're not only at support and it might break below and you might have it, but also if it takes a little bit to break like let's say it, breaks down like halfway Through the day, well, theta is eating you alive already. So for me, if i'm expiring that day and i'm already up 100 on a friday heading into valentine's day weekend, i would just be locking that in, but that's how i would do it if you have multiple. If you're up 100, you could lock in half if you're still like feeling good about it, but just more of a psychology thing i would be no take my money. I'd kick my feet up and enjoy my friday.

I would enjoy my friday a firm still getting messed up from like the debacle yesterday. Uh twitter is that actually holding it all twitter's, breakeven twitter, doing the buyback um ua under armor. They had a good earnings report but they're down eight percent so that one's now currently getting crushed um tesla we saw some tesla puts coming in uh if tesla goes below 900. The next support is 880 that might be uh some opportunity - uv xy, probably going higher.

It's at 14 right now, um uv xy, might be having some interesting moves. Um. Actually i might want to do a little something something with u of x y. I might want to do a little something something with u v x y, if this ever loads a little something something with the old uv xy and, of course, i'm so slow.

I'm gon na miss it load, load, load, loading load, low load, okay, uv xy, uvxy, uh, uv xy. All right, let's see if that gets hit, i'm trying to get some calls on uvxy. I i didn't get filled yet, but i'm looking at the 19s for in march or actually the 20s in march, so just giving myself some time. But i just don't think that the producer price index is going to be that good next week.

So i want to give myself time more of like a one two week. Uh swing type of a scenario is how i'm looking at it and i'm still not getting filled. I put in a cheap price, so i don't know if i'm gon na necessarily get it. I also picked a pretty illiquid day, apparently but i'll i'll.

Let you know if it gets filled, uh should get kind of close to getting me filled. Amc currently at 1842, remember big support at 18 25.. How is gme doing um? We do have some support it's at 122 right now. It's a lower volume day uh.

There is some support: around 115 ish ish big capital-ish d-wax sitting at 82, bbig 33-33 tessel, barely holding on to 900. rivian trying to hold on to 64. lucid going down cfvi actually in the green cfei. One of the few things on our watch list.

That's actually bucking the trend, micron, looking good corsair, 21 microsoft, 302, roblox, 70, snow, 312. uh. How is crypto looking early this morning, crypto kind of flat after the pop uh bitcoin, currently trading at 43, 000, four hundred eth, three thousand one hundred loop ring getting a pop holding strongly above one and then mana for decentraland hanging out at 320.. All right, we don't need this up here.

Let's check that out perfect all right spy with a little quick pop there might have a higher low did. I get there's no way i didn't get filled on. How did i not get filled mark 101? Okay, i still haven't been filled even with this little drop there in the uv xy. I thought i was gon na get filled, uh i'll.

Let you know when i get filled and of course i will update it here on locals x, strike all right still not filled, which is blowing my mind. All right, just got filled march. 4Th all right just got that in there all right so for everyone on locals uh, it's posted there, the spy with a noteworthy bounce right now to 451 volatility. Getting its teeth kicked in whoa whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa whoa there tiger are the amc, strong bounce off of 1830 uh gme, a strong bounce off of 121 up almost four dollars right.

There buyers stepping in out of nowhere wow whatever this is. Something happened at 9 45. Everyone waited waited, waited and then they're like okay time to let this rip look at that spy cues i mean i'm sure everything's bouncing right now, tesla coming around apple, coming around microsoft, coming around disney coming around, not as strong in nvidia same thing, micron. Looking a little bit stronger, amd, actually kind of on the weaker side.

What else do we have lucid a little bit of the weaker side, bbig, maybe making that run up back up to 350 after 350? I'd watch 377. uh nysi? Oh, do i not have breath on this? What's the other, i was trying to look at the breath indicator for the overall market. Um amc popping right now, popping right now, uh got back above 19 watching those low 20s. That's the big breakout level, the low 20s.

Roughly 20 30ish something like that roughly something like that: the spy showing some strength showing some strength. If i trigger a wash shell in march, close all positions for the stock by march end and don't touch the stock for the rest of the year to do is the wash get cancelled no like once you trigger the wash sale to wash it. You don't like undo a wash sale if you buy a stock and then sell it and then quickly buy it back. That's a wash sale, it's not like uh once the wash sale is like there and reported there's not like a way to undo it, but that's something you definitely want to talk to like a tax professional about.

That's just been my own experience, serious question: if there's an epic battle between a warrior space suck and a space ape who would come out victorious, i mean it depends on how much of a warrior that space tuck? Is you you're sounding like it's a normal space ape, but it's a warrior space stuck, so it sounds like this duck has like particularly been training its whole life for space-based battle, nice, your girlfriend. Finally, let you out of the dungeon. It is nice that she lets me do get out of the dungeon every once in a while every once in a while man. I'm really liking this pop.

Thus far man, oh man, let's see if it holds, do not forget about what happened. Yesterday. Things were bullish in the morning kind of calmed down by 11 kind of went sideways until about 12, 45, so an hour and a half roughly later things got smoked. Maybe we're completely undoing it very very possible, or this could be a wash rinse repeat scenario from yesterday.

You never ever know. That's why you don't chase. That's like if you were to buy this breakout, you would want to get in right when it actually starts breaking. You don't chase when things are already running to the upside.

You don't chase when things are already falling off to the downside. You want to be early to the party. I fully understand in real life. You could be the cool person by being late to the party, but the stock market is not that kind of a party you want to be early, you want to get in early and you probably want to leave somewhat early as well.

Tesla did recapture 900 or 905. I really mean it's been above 100 didn't break below it all right, so amc still dancing around at 19. uh, similar level to where it messed around yesterday, but you're going to get a better idea by watching the russell. If the russell pops gets above 205, amc will most likely follow.

Watch the russell right here. First, spy coming right back up spy 452 interesting level, interesting level. What are the whales doing now? Soxel call ark, put tesla, put tesla, put tesla, put tesla put 62 days out in video call tesla put zero days out 900 for today, hyg, that's either copper, silver. I think it's copper hyg.

I think we will have a lunch crash again. Um i mean, if they're just going to repeat what they did yesterday, that's obviously possible it's just not really specific to an individual equity, but i'm just saying the overall markets. The report we got yesterday is not good for stocks that the high inflation - that's just saying that the fed will most likely have to be more hawkish um. So that report, like i'm kind of i mean i've, explained my plan, i'm basically watching for the test of the s p.

500 at 444.. That's my plan. I want to see the spy test 444 about seven dollars below where we are. I want to see if we bounce great i'll go bullish on the overall market.

If we test it and we fail that test, then i'm going to be bearish down to 428.. For me, i'm using the overall market to be my gauge on, like all my individual trades really um 444 is like the line in the sand, at least for me personally. So in the meantime, i'm just kind of waiting watching um hey if it keeps popping great. I hope you guys are making money i'll be missing out on that particular movement, but i don't mind it like you're, not gon na hit every play.

You're not gon na hit every trend. Uh to me, the risk of the sell-off to 444 is too great. For me to buy the spy right now, all right, we're getting amc kind of a cup and handle setup. We get the big! U the lower! U, with a higher low! Let's see if this can follow through, but uh the real breakout comes in the low 20s.

The low low 20s can i break down fuel cell uh intraday, showing some strength daily, showing some strength. It's finding this low off of 330.. This is one that got beat up considerably, so you're just buying it on discount. But don't forget the fact that, on the bigger time frame on the medium and long term, time frame ever since february of last year, for one year this thing's been down.

Trending is this the final bottom it might have been put in, maybe potentially but um? It has quite a bit of distance to make backup. I mean at one point: it was trading at 29. um. I do like the industry, it's in more of the upstream ev world, so i'm a fan of that, but, like the chart, it depends your time frame in the longer short term.

Do i think this could be a decent reversion yeah in the very short term? Well, that's quite a bit of green. I don't know if i'd want to chase it but medium to long term. Like this thing, it's lower highs, low or low, so i'd be a little bit concerned about that. Definitely want to at least closely be paying attention to it.

How's gme doing jimmy trying to hold on there at 124. trying to hold on all right. The spy looks like it's about to come back down and test 450, currently trading at 450, 71 right here, 450. That looks to be the intraday test level and then from there you obviously have the intraday low up for just below 449.

uh. The russell on a relative basis is outperforming, which is good, especially if you're an amc. The nasdaq is performing the worst uh. So small cap sector, the best s, p, 500 middle and then the nasdaq, the worst uh on a relative comparison of those three.

So when a wash sale occurs, no matter what it is deferred to tax next year. Is that how your tesla trades not break your taxes? Um, i think we're talking about different things. The way i've been taught about wash sales is basically if you buy stock, and then you sell it for a loss. You can't use those losses to like on a part of your taxes.

If you just buy it back right away, um, that's how i've been taught about wash sales and but you're definitely going to want to talk to a certified like tax accountant for that type of stuff and like for a real life example. Let's say you're down on a stock and you decide to sell it december 31st, at the end of the year, to like kind of balance off some of your gains on the overall year um. It's basically stopping you from buying it back right away. On january 1st, to get back into the position, but then you took like the tax advantage um.

So i'm not sure what you mean about deferred to next year tax next year, um a wash sale means you can't use that loss against your overall situation at least once again. That's how i've been taught, but definitely talk to someone who's a little bit more informed than i am and uh. I believe it's 30 days. So in that first scenario, if you sell on december 31st for it to not be a wash sale, you have to wait.

30 days explain like you're comfy by a fire. Oh man, citizens bake. What's going on travis next wolf trickle, shout out shout out shout out shout out shout out shout out um, oh very quickly. I see we're just super close.

If you guys could help me out very quickly with the algorithm and get us to get above that uh 1000, like mark we're at 900 and something so if less than a hundred of you beautiful space ape duck lovers, uh could just hit that like button. It's free, it just helps me out and don't forget to join up the moon game by hitting that subscribe button hit that subscribe, subscribe, subscribe, subscribe. I'm curious why amc cost to borrow is so low on the third straight day of utilization because supply and demand, if there's no extra people who want to take out shares on loan, the cost isn't going to go up. It's all the relative rate of how many more are there that can go out on loan and how many people want those if they're perfectly in line you're, not going to see a spike in price, sndl.

Finally, thoughts lesson: 180 extension, i'm not the biggest fan of sndo. I actually like tilt ray better. I also like cgc, better just bigger, more well-established companies. This is a penny stock.

I do like the industry it's in, but i'm just not a fan of penny stocks. It's not, i think people get attracted to quote-unquote cheaper stocks because they feel like they can buy more. But that's like another mathematical side of hand issue, because in reality you should be looking at how much money are you willing to invest? And what's your percentage return on it just because something's cheaper doesn't mean it's going to have a better percentage return and when it comes to that the marinara industry, i think the ones that have the best odds of being successful are the larger ones, with more name Recognition i.e, tilray ie cgc, all right, we are seeing the market come back down. The nasdaq is vomiting in front of our eyes.

Uh. The nasdaq is coming down uh coming down to the support right there, let's see if it can actually hold uh. I have something marked out just below 357. um, we're at the point of at least for the early morning session.

This is the bouncer break point. It's not the important one like i said, the spy is 444 and the q's that equivalent level would be 352.. So we're not at like the mega daily important one, but obviously at an intraday basis. The q's just made a new intraday low and the spy is testing its intraday low.

So, let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see, buyers stepping up. We had a little bit of a vomit the spy, thus far catching itself, the cues catching itself at this other level. Let's see how this actually plays out some buyers stepping up thus far uh, thus because of the craziness in the market. The spy of the queues.

Amc is kind of a muted day, like it's pretty much where it opened it opened. It went up, it went down, it went up and went down so just kind of like a roller coaster, basically ending up going. Nowhere, thus far all right some buyers, but let's just see, let's see if there's actual buyers all right. What else do we actually have moving where's tesla tesla below 900.? This might be if the queues break below this 356 75-ish level, that might be opening up a tesla flush to 880 about 20 dollars below potential potential.

But let's see the we're watching intently right now, because we're we're kind of in game time, both the spy and the queues are at a level. Let's just see this potentially could be good practice for like how to play out the like the 352 and the 445 relative. Like the former, the qs and the latter, the spy um, you never know you come up to important price levels. It's a 50 50 guess.

Is it gon na break or is it gon na bounce? You don't know - and this is a good idea of exactly why when it comes here, you don't necessarily like want to chase because, like if you were to wish shorted at this level, i mean it might have worked. If there was a breakdown. Of course it could work there or it could work this way where people are like. No, that's support, i want to buy and it like rips right back up and it's already bounced over a dollar um.

You just never know.