Do do do mum, welcome welcome back to the afternoon power hour session what the f is going on in the market. Today we started out with such enthusiasm and then, as soon as i basically turn off the stream. What like all hell, brokes breaks loose like what was broken? What happened there turns out the guy who answered it, who completely sniped the market. Today was our boy jay powell, so i want to be going over what happened and then i want to be going over.

Some maybe interesting plays maybe some opportunity. I want to look at some oil stocks. I want to look at some fertilizer stocks and i want to look at some cyber security stocks because just a little bit ago, if you're, watching this in real time, there's been an increase in concern about cyber security attacks being lobbed at the u.s from russia. So cyber security gon na be looking good fertilizer if you've been following the whole debacle.

Fertilizer stocks are going up and in a similar manner, also oil, so we're gon na be taking a look at that, and we'll also recap what, in the world's going on with muln we'll be looking at bbig. We have a lot to look at um. Let's get ready to do this: let's switch over hang on. What's going on some audio issues, all right, audio, good, audio good, shout out to the stream sponsor public if you're not signed up and if you want up to seventy dollars of free stock for getting rocking with an account check it out no payment for order flow.

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So here's what's going on with the old stock market and, as you can see right, around 12 30 we got hit and in fact we rapidly dropped one percent what's the deal. Why did this happen, and why are we not recovering strongly well, this is all in part to jerome powell, daddy powell money printer go burr kind of guy, not being the most dovish coming off a little bit more hawkish than he was last week when he had The fomc meeting so remember last week we got a quarter of one percent interest rate hike and there were some dissenting opinions that hey inflation's kind of bad and we should be a little bit more hawkish a little bit more aggressive in battling it as in we Should have done a 0.5 interest rate hike and potentially some of those in a row and one of the main people who were coming out about this was another fed member from st louis bullard bullard uh, i'm not really bullish if he gets his way a little Bit more hawkish bearish for the market, but ideally will help better fight every like inflation and potentially fight a recession, and i know a lot of you are watching this and you're like, but matt. We don't need to do anything with monetary policy. I could just sell my car and i could take the bus.

I could just give up meat and start eating lentils exclusively. If my pet ends up coming down with chemotherapy. I could save some money by just not buying chemotherapy for my pet and i get it. You've probably read the same bloomberg opinion articles that i have and though those might be interesting tips for anyone making less than 300 000.

Let's live in the world of reality and understand that those are pretty silly stupid, asinine opinions and yeah. No, maybe we should look at monetary policy as a better way to fight inflation rather than just buying lentils and thinking that that's gon na solve things very. Very weird stuff, if you have no idea what i'm talking about, you got ta check out some of the previous videos on how to not be poor uh, because i i ran through it all completely you'll be you'll. You're gon na feel a lot better about it.

Well, anyway, here's what happened at 12 30.. Why did things go like downward? Well, it's because, like i said, more hawkish more hawkish is less good for the stock market, but it is better to fight inflation. It's a tool to fight inflation, i.e, raise interest rates and, on top of that, take care of all the money that you just printed out of the ether. So this came out today powell fed prepared to raise rates by half a percentage point if warranted.

So that's double what we just did. We did a point two five percent now they're talking about a point, five percent once again, it'll more efficiently battle inflation, but maybe not the best for the stock market and if it is in opera in inappropriately aligned with other geopolitical things, such as a worsening situation. In ukraine, it could be very, very bad uh from a recession standpoint, and this is what we're hearing about. Last week, you probably heard the term policy error quite a bit as in in 2021, not enough from the fed, maybe in 2022 they are over, compensating.

So, once again, that's why we're hearing the term policy error pal? We are not expecting near-term progress on inflation. Once again, we are not expecting as in hey. You know that 7.9 interest or inflation that we're seeing yeah expect it to go higher and we didn't do enough with interest to battle it so we're in a bit of a pickle there um, but not expecting near-term progress as in when we get to consumer price Index report next month, it's probably going to be higher than 7.9. I wouldn't be surprised if we make a new record pal expect that at coming meeting will begin to reduce balance sheet over three years.

So this is why there was kind of a notable reaction in the stock market today because it was hawkish as in not good for the market. When they're like hey, we might be doing point five percent. Some people decided to start to price that in ie market selling off, then they got really hawkish. When they're like we're gon na reduce the balance sheet, this is known as a balance sheet runoff, it's known as a balance sheet normalization.

Basically, over the past two years, they've been running it up, creating money out of the ether buying a bunch of things as in uh bonds, mortgage-backed securities, helping with the repo market, but to the tune of just under nine trillion 9 trillion. That's a lot of balance sheet that you have to run off. Let mature fall off, reduce whatever you want to call it, but overall, this is another thing that, yes, it will help inflation, but it hampers the stock market, and this is never the intention. It's just.

It's a side effect of like the tools you have to use to fight inflation is not the best stuff for the stock market pal hard to say if economy will return to pre-pandemic type. So if you're sitting there all nostalgic about the whole 2009 to, i guess basically 2022 run. Don't do that! Don't do that! Stop! Stop that! Nostalgist! Stop thinking hey! I love when stocks rip from the bottom left to the top right and it's easy peasy lemon squeezy. I just buy and hold well.

Pal is signaling, hey uh! We we might not be going back there. So all of this happened, as you can see, from the time of like between 12 and 1 30 today, and look at what happened in the stock market from 12 to basically 1 30 of the day we sold off because they just kept hitting us with a Series of hawkish comments, so that's exactly why we saw a sell-off in the market and then obviously, people ended up, unfortunately, pivoting anything such as muln a little bit of profit taking there, which speaking of which um. If you ended up locking in i'm not saying you had to lock in all, but to those of you who were appropriately following the trend, how many of you in here did that? Because that's what you should be doing, don't all of a sudden. Let a great trade turn into like not a good trade like you should be locking in at key levels such as a key round level such as four like that's a level and when it didn't hold that i would have probably been locking some in there uh.

Once again to be very clear, i don't have an mulm position. I didn't and i think in a certain sense that could like help me be a little bit more um. I guess objective on it, but you got to lock it in like don't let it go against you, portions portions, portions, portions, you're, riding okay, you lock in some and even if you lock it all in and then it's weak and then starts to bounce back. You can always re-enter, there's no rule against that, be agile, be the agile chris hemsworth of the market.

It's a it's a good thing to be trust me. The final thing i want to talk about right here. This is a shout out to dylan leclair the yields you're going to hear more and more about flattening inverting and if you kind of miss my tldr breakdown on that. Basically, you have two types of these bonds: two in tenure, that's when they mature, as in that's when they're done so, and your money's tied up for that portion of time and obviously the longer it's tied up.

You would expect that you get more of a payout. Well, these bonds, all of a sudden if you have the same yield. What does that mean when the 2 and the 10 are paying the same thing? Well, that means a lot of people on a relative basis. I are piling into the 10-year bonds they're buying the bonds, which is pushing the yield down relative to the 2..

There's more people going into the ten than the two to the degree that the yield payment is the same. Well, what does that mean? Well, that's telling people that they're, it's signaling, that a lot of market participants as in the majority are not that confident in what's going to go down in the market in the next two years. Let's call that the short term just for the sake of this conversation and what it's saying is in the short term, there's not confidence in the market and they're, hoping that there is going to be confidence by the time you get 10 years out, at least on A relative comparison - this is the type of stuff that we go into far more detail on the crypto stream and we're talking about basically ways to hedge that if the market does shit out which there are very reasonable tools that any of you watching right now could Employ but we cover that in a bit more detail on those crypto course streams. Matt amc is moving.

Uh amc is at 15.70, it's popping a little bit coming off this daily low, getting some buyers. That's exciting, um. Before we get into over amc. I didn't want to talk about.

Yes, oil is high. Oil is now at 110.. I'm still in my uso calls i'm still down a lot of money on my uso calls, but it's getting me a little bit excited. I want to see the tests of 115 in crude oil high high high.

It looks like we have to break this 115 level and then from there there's a shot that i'm not going to get completely murked by my uso calls. I am playing it through uso, but that's going to be directly correlated with what in the world is going on with crude oil, but i just chose to play it through uso. I wish i decided to play it through oxy, which is the one that warren buffett is loading up on. Uh oxy is looking very, very strong.

Unfortunately, i just did not make that decision, but overall, if you're looking for some strong oil stuff yeah, you could get direct exposure through crude oil. You could look at oxy, which is currently being back to the tune of like seven billion dollars by warren buffett. He owns almost 15 of the company and he's been loading it up like last week. He put another billion into this company uh.

So that's oxy. You could look at something like devin energy. I like this one because it's an oil play, but on top of it it has a very, very strong dividend: uh right here, more financials right here, 6.86, that's a beautiful dividend. So that's another energy play that you could be looking at and then of course uh.

You have the likes of like chevron, which i would say is comparable to exxon, maybe chevron. I would give it a little bit of an edge because it has some stronger upstream products on a relative basis, but um a good one to look at. So you could look at various things: crude oil uso, devon, um oxy, which is the buffett one there's various things you could do so right now. The energy situation i don't see getting better anytime soon, like i think energy plays, are going to be solid.

For the remainder of the year as simple as hey, if you're like, i don't even want to actively trade you buy some, i think it's a reasonable thing to get a nice basket of energy plays a financial place and you could just sit on it. For the remainder of the year, especially if we're gon na start to get point, five percent increases. Actually i didn't even think about this, yet um, what's goldman gs, this is probably up on the day. No, it's not wait.

What's going on with goldman, i was thinking, goldman should be running on the news: did it run from no, it came off too. Usually, big banks, like this uh jpm, looks like jp morgan. These are the types of things that would benefit from more interest rates. I'm surprised that these aren't doing a little bit better today, but overall, i'm still bullish on financials and now recently particular to an export from russia.

You can talk about fertilizer companies right now, uh, there's actually new found. I guess concerns about potentially famine issues of we're. Seeing a lot a lot of these fertilizer companies are unfortunately based in the russia region. So if they're not exporting those we're seeing now these other players going higher and higher, so something like mos, but that's also something you could just give it.

A quick google search of like top fertilizer companies fertilizer right now anything related to the world. Fertilizer food shortages, uh, unfortunately becoming a very, very viable play at this moment in time and then most recently today, there's a newfound fear of hacks. I know this is something that's been talked about, but then there were some hacks that were reported, there's various cyber security companies. That might be an opportune thing to look at at this moment in time.

Once again, if you're watching this live, this is all pretty solid stuff for march 21st, if you're watching this in a month, i'm we'll have to see how things play out, but i can tell you, for the remainder of the year very, very bullish on energy related Songs very, very bullish on financials, if i had to pick between those two for the rest of the year, i'd probably pick the energy sector, but once again, i'm bullish on both depending on how things do or don't play out. Maybe these fertilizer companies - maybe something related to the world of like wheat, just because the supply is going down like these classic food sources. Maybe soy uh those types of things. I think the price is just gon na keep going up uh.

We could check in on how like something like orange juice has been doing. Let's see how oj is up, oj has been trending upward, not to a crazy amount. We know coffee, we checked out coffee this morning. Coffee is going up uh.

What about corn corn, also known as maize corn, has to be going up? Corn is also ripping all these food based commodities are going higher and higher and higher, and then um like i'm classic commodities. Gold, silver, copper, they're, all going up. Palladium uranium um. A lot of these classics like, let's think about this from a macro level of like what does it mean to us, like where's, the opportunity to protect yourself and your family.

If all of a sudden, there is a food shortage, all of a sudden if they are raking or like raising interest rates, all of a sudden, if there's energy issues um, i know in a certain sense, it could come off cold of like when this is going Wrong like should you be profiting off of it, and i guess the way i look at it is your job is to protect yourself and your family and all of a sudden if the energy costs are going sky high. But you notice that, and you make more money in the market - well, you're offsetting that for yourself, your family, which is giving you more money to put food on your table if food costs are going up and you make a good play on like a fertilizer. Well: okay, you're ensuring that you can now still continue to put this expensive food on your table. I look at it.

Is it cold in a certain sense? Yes, but is it more morally or philosophically an issue than not being able to pay the bills? You need to pay be being able to put food on your table for your kids. I don't think so. That's a personal opinion, but i think you should be putting yourself and your family first rather than like the morality of doing something that it's playing out in your favor because of a bad thing on a global scale. That's a philosophical decision and i guess we have to all come to it, but i would argue that you should be putting yourself in your family.

First uh, hey matt! I hope chair has a seat belt. You can pass them while we ride to the moon, but shorting amc is immoral. Weird, i don't think shorting itself is immoral. I think manipulative shorting and stock bashing is immoral because those things are illegal.

I think the things that happen on these exchanges and short exempts no one said normal shorting. I do not have an issue with typical shorting. I think shorting in itself has a time in place. Like many things in the market, the issue is manipulative shorting.

It's stock bashing, it's synthetic shares, it's a whole host of other things beyond just shorting. For you blank to just say it's something that basic, i think you're missing a huge aspect of the argument. A massive aspect of the argument, exactly uh, ryan, predatory, shorting and spoofing - is the issue, not normal legal shorting. That's 100! It's this stuff, that's beyond shorting! If, for example, when we look at something such as like luck and coffee or nicola, not nicola now, but nichola, when milton was the ceo, those stocks were good shorts.

They were doing something that was basically saying really, they had illicit tactics and they were overvalued, and then people found that out and they deserved to be shorted. They were overvalued. I have no issue with normal shorting. If six more rate hikes in the horizon might tbt be a wise investment uh, what year is that i know tlt is the 20.

What's tbt, wait what's tlt, this is the oh wait. This is the ultra short of tlt. Okay. I've been tlt is like the main bond one i didn't know there was an ultra short of that, so i mean obviously, with these bonds are going down and these yields are going higher, but this is the 20-year treasury bond etf.

That's a valid way to play. You could use tlt, you could use tbt, obviously they're going to be inverse of each other and you could use calls or puts and then inverse the inversa there's a whole host of ways to play it. But yes, these things will move on interest announcements. So do you think toys r us was manipulated? I don't really have much, i'm not too familiar with the whole toys r us thing, so i can't really like fairly comment on it.

Only market makers should be allowed to shorten extreme circumstances just like payment for order flow. It's for sure a better place. Wait! No! No! I think no, no matt pickering, i would say the opposite. I think a lot of our problems come from market makers, market makers on their own volition.

Even if we're on ssr short sale restriction, they can still short when the rest of the people can't and then their own fact checkers themselves. I don't, i think, we're on a different page. There matt, but i think market makers are prompting a lot of the issue, a lot of the issue. Um, arguably, like i think, between brokers and market makers, they actually might be more of the lying share of manipulation than just straight up like funds um a lot a lot of bad stuff.

A lot of bad stuff goes down between brokers and market makers. Does bad stuff go on with hedge funds yeah and, like i, don't have the exact like numbers to back this, but i wouldn't be surprised if more manipulation goes down with brokers and market makers opposed to hedge funds, at least on a market structure perspective. If you're talking about overall manipulation of like paid hit pieces and that type of stuff yeah that's more of the hedge fund world, i guess now we're getting into the nuances and splitting hairs of like the type of manipulation. More people should be watching gerk who the hell is gurk keep ranting.

It helps amc, i'm long on duck feathers, short on duck markets uh what is going on with muln right now. Someone was calling that out. I mean it's still like intraday, obviously from 12 30. It's been like a considerable drop.

Let's see what this is it's down, 24, but it's still up 9 on the day, like imagine if it opened at the same level that it closed on friday and was up to this level, we could still be at 318, but i think people's psychology would wildly Different - and it's just kind of this, like hindsight, bias of like the could have shoulda woulda of like why didn't i get out at 417 and then buy back in at 282.? But if you're beating yourself up because of something like that, you're never gon na win, because it's just this stuff is so unpredictable. P5. I don't know what that is. Rumble chat, not working.

Uh looks like it's working, try reloading it uh travis! I see other people talking and i just send in a message on it: travis give it a reload, matt eyebrows. On point. I appreciate that i was born with them, so i can't say that, like i've done anything special and i'm like i'm happy that you're acknowledging my effort, but i appreciate that you're acknowledging i hit the genetic lottery with my eyebrows. That's very kind of you.

We crushed this spy move and right here hang on. Let me bring this up if you're, not already, you got to get on locals, because this is the type of stuff that happens when i'm not streaming uh right here. So this was five hours ago. This was very very early in this morning, uh rejected at the key 200 moving average level of 446 now watching 441.

Once again, this was posted five hours ago and obviously spy target hit. Hopefully, you made some 10 days 446 down to 441, and i just said thanks to pal, but this was posted right about um when we couldn't hold this morning. This was a very early morning call and at first yeah it was looking like kind of sketchy, but then pal and look at this boom. We brought it all the way down to 441, which was 440 68.

um. I mean right there, you have it like kind of these game time playouts. Do they always work? No, but do they 100 of the time work sixty percent of the time, of course, but that was uh. Definitely a nice call.

446 to 441.. I mean not off by that much. How much was this low, so we were off by what 32 cents not a bad deal which brokers allow you to short than as retail, i would say any like of like. Let's say the old age of brokers like robin hood: won't weeble, won't public won't uh! That's what i'm considering new age, but if you're on, like interactive brokers, if you're on e-trade, if you're on fidelity like all those like the generation before all of those, let you short it like shorting, is not a non-retail thing same thing with pre and post market Trading, i think, there's confusion about that of like oh, like there's, an idea that only institution can trade, pre and post market that has nothing to do with institution or retail.

That's just are you on the right broker? Certain brokers allow you to short certain brokers. Allow you to trade options. Certain brokers, allow you to trade futures, certain brokers, allow you to trade, pre and post market. All that stuff is afforded to you as a retail trader.

You just have to be on the right brokerage. What are your thoughts on the lme nickel thing that is so wild the london metal exchange? Basically like it's such a wild story, it's literally game stop all over again of, except in a set of a broker, messing it up and doing crazy stuff. This time it was an exchange and the reason it's not getting that much traction. It's obviously it's a futures thing.

It's the london metal exchange, it's in london and what's really really nuts about this is the company who was being squeezed is a chinese company and on paper they were down like eight billion dollars and then all of a sudden, the london metal exchange started to do A lot of fucked up shit, like i'm saying they were clearly favoring, the concept of nickel coming down and stopping the squeeze. This is by the lme, the london metal exchange, and then you look at who owns the lme. It's the hong kong. I think it's owned by hong kong exchange hang on it's owned by the hong kong exchanges and clearing so you're telling me that the owner of lme - and we all know like the chinese party.

A lot of these are like interrelated that the biggest loser in this scenario was a massive chinese company and then all of a sudden the squeeze was stopped. And then you look at the owner of the exchange and it's the hong kong exchanges and clearing like that's wild, that's wild, and it's just it's one of these things that no one notices anything until it goes wrong and then all of a sudden you look in, Like the bylaws and rules and the regulations of the lme, and they wrote themselves like this back door and they're like well, hang on it's in our rules, you like, when you signed up on our terms of service. You said we're allowed to do this type of thing and everyone's like what the hell. Why would we have read that that's bullshit? It should be illegal.

Super super bad um, very, very similar to the gamestop thing, except this time it wasn't a broker. It was in exchange, and it's just not getting that much traction because obviously like gamestop like nickel, is not as viral as gamestop. It wasn't being tracked on reddit uh, so there's a couple reasons why it's not getting the same traction, but it's a very, very similar circumstance um. What else do we have gap fill on cei, very potentially, especially with oil continuing to rip oil currently sitting at almost 111 and on cei you have a gap fill up to 1.04.

I like that. That's almost a 10 game, easy peasy, lemon squeezies. That's all! I have to say kinky kong love. You too shout out always bring in the good vibes terms.

Are there to read um, but even a lot of these things, for example, they're not able to even be read. So if we took that same line of reasoning with robin hood and they're like well hang on uh, the volatility was too high. We presented too much of a risk we like had to offer more collateral and if retail traders stood up and said, okay cool before this goes nuts, we want to know what the risk parameter is and what collateral you might like need to post. So, let's see the risk model from the dtcc and then the dtcc would say: oh no, we're not giving that out, which is just like bonkers.

The casino is closed. So it's that same scenario of even with robin hood's debacle of having to post more collateral. If we said okay, what is the risk model? So we know what's going on the dtcc would not give that to us. So there's only so much.

You can really do in these crazy circumstances, with retail and no one notices that there's, i would say, opaqueness around like key things and we don't notice it until shit goes like haywire and obviously gamestop with robinhood was one and now this lme debacle with nickel is Another, but it's truly truly insane, thanks for being here and answering questions be easy after shout out, matt have a good one thanks for the good vibes, good vibes, good vibes, good vibes. Well, that is what i have for you uh. Thank you so much for all of your time. If you haven't already on your way out, it would be much appreciated if you could destroy that.

Like button, helps me out the algorithm don't forget to join up with the moon king on both youtube, twitch and rumble. So i should say all three well technically on twitch you just follow uh but liking, subscribing all that stuff's free and it immensely immensely helps me out in the back end immensely immensely immensely. It's the only thing i asked for i'm never gon na ask for a single dollar from any of you. If you haven't already sign up for public, in fact, you're i'm going to give you money, you could sign up for free right there and get up to 70 worth of stock.

I will be posting um, maybe like a short video like a tick tock or something tonight, some vod content, and then i will be streaming once again full day tomorrow on tuesday march 22nd. But i want to give you a friendly reminder that i will not be able to stream on friday, so if the market's ripping in a good way or if it's plummeting in a bad way, unfortunately, i will not be able to be around on friday. I just want to call that all out to now so there's no crazy, like tin, foil hat conspiracy theories, but no matter what happens. There's gon na be some i'm fully aware of that.

But overall, thank you for your time. I hope you have an absolutely be a beautiful day and i'll catch. You in the next video have a good one. You.