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Attention make it please love yourself when no one else will, because they can't help it they're, just selfish. I some light inside my mind. I wonder why i'm here sometimes it seems like. I can find a reason why, if you just love something too know: oh this is mum.
Oh hey, how's, it going happy to be here. I know i know i sound like absolute ass. My apologies, but we're gon na make through it together. Folks, we got ta talk about what's going on in the market today, because i'm seeing a bit of a sea of red, there are a couple standouts that are kind of green right now, so we'll be getting into those uh.
I want to talk a little bit about the overall market kind of what's going down in ukraine currently, and then we have an update on the whole twitter saga involving elon musk. So we have some updates there. Then i want to talk about some of the trades that we've been posting over on locals one, that's looking very, very good right now and then i also want to discuss basically some of the other things that we see going on, maybe in the short term some Opportunity that might be able to make us a little extra cha-ching today and hey you might be needing it because don't forget at least if you're in the u.s it is tax day uh. This is your friendly reminder to everyone out there.
If you're wondering hey like, when am i supposed to pay the government, unless you filed an extension that that's due today, folks uh, so your friendly reminder that this is when uncle sam comes knocking on the doors and says: hey give me that money we're also. I see some people already um talking about mullen and so we'll be talking about that as well. I actually have it up on the charts, so some interesting stuff there about evs coming in house, so cool stuff going on uh once again bear with me. I know i'm severely under the weather, i have the rhona, which we could be talking about that as well.
So with all that in mind, um shout out to today's sponsor we are talking about public up to 70 of free stock from public. If you sign up with the code uh, the code is either matt or it is. I don't think it's pinned to the top of chat, so i will put it there. Oh, it is yeah, never mind, pin to the top of chat.
It is the first link in the description of the video no payment for order flow. No market makers, this you got ta check it out, like at minimum, like you're gon na get money for signing up and getting rocking with the count to see. If it's for you um, i'm a huge huge supporter of it, because there is no payment for order flow. There is no market makers.
Um most of your trades will be executed on a lid exchange, which means it will have an ideal impact on price discovery uh, which is something that you don't get when you're trading on robinhood weeble, obviously you're going through a market maker in that particular sense. So you got ta check it out, pin to the top of chat in the description of the video special shout out to public for sponsoring today's stream. Now, with that out of the way, let's take a look at the overall market, we're down slightly in pre-market trading right now, the dow the s p and the nasdaq down 0.13 0.27 and 0.34 respectively oil is on its way up. So we could take a look at uso. I want to talk a little bit about oxy and i know cei is up. I currently have no cei position, but i know a lot of you are probably still invested in cei, so we're going to talk about that and it should bode well. The fact that oil is coming back to life and yields are up and we've actually been on. Quite a crazy like yield push recently, it's like actually truly insane uh to get a little bit of a graphic breakdown of what we see right here, spy it was trending down on thursday.
Remember the market was not open on friday, an observation of good friday, but the s p 500 coming down down down. This does lead to the opportunity of a gap bill i'll be covering that in a little bit. But i think that could be one easy play out of the gate mullen. There's a bit of news.
There we'll be going over that amc gme both a little flat in pre-market trading. Nothing too crazy, going on there cei gained 5.6 on thursday up another 11.5 in pre-market flirting with that one dollar line, and that's just a little sneak peek of all the things we will be talking about. Let me get to the top of this. These are the five things you should know before.
The stock market opens today monday april 18th stock futures fall as the 10-year treasury yield tops. A three-year-old high yields are going up and up and up and for the tldr version of why they're going up and up and up we'll remember, the fed is going to be raising interest rates. Um they've, pretty much signaled to us that yeah like we get it. We have to be pretty hawkish with their one caveat of like okay, we're obviously paying attention to the supply chain or really the supply issues currently being prompted and made more extreme by the whole ukraine situation, but anyway on may wednesday, may 4th that's when we're going To get the next fed decision, the fomc, the federal open market committee - that's where we're going to get the next rate hike right now you could argue that the futures market is pricing in a 0.5 hike, so we'll find out more of that.
The first week of may and leading into that, i wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the fed members go on various forms of interviews. Saying hey like we're doing this this and this to kind of like get the market ready so from now. Until i guess, early may pay attention to what the fed members say and also pay attention to what the banks are saying, because right now we're officially underway with earnings season. It's technically started last week with some big banks, but we have more banks reporting this week.
We have tesla reporting this week, we'll actually go over some of the major names all reporting, but just so everyone understands between the ukraine situation, the federal reserve and now earnings season. Volatility is just continuing to notch higher and higher and higher, be prepared and actually just expect. Large gyrations in the market expect large swings bank of america issues stronger earnings as it releases reserves for soured loans, we'll be talking about that elon musk's tweet suggests an appeal directly to twitter shareholders, we'll be talking about that. China's first quarter gdp beats estimates despite rona lockdowns, so this is actually a little bit of a. I would argue, with silver lining a little bit of positivity, so even though they recently have enacted lockdowns and now they're kind of trying to take the foot off. Like really the gas with that situation, um they're, at least they reported a first quarter - gdp growth. So that's some positivity right there and last but not least, russian strikes kill at least seven people in leave. Uh ukrainian officials say so we'll be talking about that.
In fact, let's get that out of the way right now russian commanders angry at how long it's taking to capture maripool, where ukraine says it will fight to the end. Mayorpool a port city in southern ukraine has seen the fiercest fighting of the russian invasion troops. There have been surrounded by outnumbered fighting in hellish conditions. On monday, uk officials said you, russian leaders would be upset that the city was still unconquered.
The reason i'm bringing up this particular story is, i think, it's very representative of really what's been going on for weeks now of from a logistics like timeline thing uh perspective, i should say russia seems to have been very much underestimating in all aspects. What would be going on in ukraine like in terms of what the amount of manpower they would need in amount of the timeline they would need? It seems, like everything, was severely severely underestimated, uh severely underestimated, which is causing morale issues among many other things for the russian side. So i just want to keep in. I guess i get that mainstream media has been talking about this less and less and less.
It's still, obviously, as you can see from this picture, still very much a horrific situation so keep that in mind, but in terms of global impact. Don't forget: russia, massive exporter of fertilizer ukraine, a massive exporter of wheat. Both of these have huge noteworthy implications on global food supply, and there are some - i guess, economists out there, predicting that this could lead to a famine in certain areas of the world, so something that will impact all of us something worthwhile to pay attention to, and Then, if you want to take that a step further and think about the markets, well, all right, obviously there's a fertilizer shortage. There could be a wheat shortage.
This could have implications on soy. This could have implications on the things that consume wheat and soy, such as cattle um. So you can really take this and see how it quickly ripples out to other implications um, so not only if you're of the mindset that this could really become that bad. Well. Also, you might be able to counteract it by making some savvy and astute and timely uh decisions within the market to at least on a personal basis, counteract that for yourself now, like i said, we are underway with earnings season, feel free to check out earnings whispers On twitter at e whispers, or you could just screenshot that this is what we have coming up. These are the noteworthy ones for this week. So this morning we had some banks: bank of america, charles swab, b y melon after the market closes. Today we have more banks, tuesday.
We have johnson and johnson netflix ibm interactive brokers, halliburton on wednesday tesla's, a big one. We also have united after the market closes on wednesday and then before the market opens on thursday american uh. We know recently delta did pretty well. So i would expect some bullishness there 18 t we have snapchat, we have dow.
As you can see, there are quite a few verizon slumberjay, so it kind of feels like throughout the week we're going from financials and then, as the week kind of continues, we're getting a little bit more into energy. So definitely these are things that all need to be paid attention to. Uh banks are important with the fed right now and then obviously, energy plays are important because you got ta like right now. Energy is like a huge, huge thing related to petroleum and petroleum-based products.
You got ta be paying attention to all that, but i wan na dive into one particularly that already reported before the market open and i'm talking about bank of america bank of america. Profit tops estimates as lender releases reserves for soured loans. Here are the numbers uh. So it beat by five cents per share in terms of earnings per share and in revenue it came in by 23.33 million versus the estimate of 23.2, so it beat there.
And yes, you can like read about these loans. This is kind of par for the course of what we've seen these big banks, doing of like reserves to kind of inflate, in a certain sense, their revenue. But more specifically, i want to dive into a pattern that we've been seeing since last week of these other banks. So we know morgan stanley out of the big ones that beat last week.
Morgan stanley didn't um. So we know that or excuse me uh wells, fargo, uh, wells, fargo, didn't invoke morgan stanley city and what was the other one goldman all did well, and it really helped a lot through their trading. Well, once again, we're seeing that this is the kind of the going pattern bank of america. Traders get boosts from market volatility, beat estimates.
So i just want to point out that these big banks, the ones that have exposure to not only themselves trading but also their clients trading, we're continuing to see an uptick in that, and that's really actually, the banks that are winning are the ones that have exposure To some pillar of their business being in the world of trading, so i'm keeping that in mind going forward as we have more and more banks really reporting of what's going on, i wouldn't be in the slightest surprise if we continue to see the ones that are Being are the ones that are banks that have exposure to the world of trading um, that's what we saw last week. It looks like thus far that's what we're seeing this week and i expect that to be continuing throughout the remainder of the week, but also speaking of the remainder of the week, i will be closely paying attention to what is going on in the world of these Energy plays because, most recently, oil cl on the futures market support support at 9.85. We broke out of this wedge uh. I think the first major test is going to be 112 to 116 ish and then from there. I think it could continue higher and higher, but definitely we have a bullish breakout in oil and then you could play that. However, you want there's, obviously a lot of plays that have quite a bit of exposure to direct exposure to the price of crude oil, something you need to be paying attention to, because this could prompt some volatility that could make you some nice money. If you are on the right side of the trade, but yes technical breakout, i would say it's add a bit of resistance right here, just that we saw in late march. But after that i'll watch 112 116 oil, showing some strength, is the name of the game.
Let's talk about twitter, the story that keeps on giving so currently twitter is up three percent in pre-market trading at 46.50. Just to give you an idea about we're, roughly halfway through april, we're about to kick off another full week of trading and kurt training at 46.50. And yes, the saga is continuing to give us more and more content. Twitter board adopts poison pill after musk's, 43 billion dollar bid to buy the company.
So if you don't know what a poison pill is it's when a company decides to offer its shareholders more shares, typically at a discount of a price. So what this does? Is it functionally dilutes the company itself, because you now have more stock, who wouldn't want to buy the stock that they have, but now at a discount price? But when you're doing that to someone such as musk, what it's doing is a mathematical slight of hand where it means his percentage of ownership is less and less and less so it's going to stop him from getting a higher percentage, which means inherently. He has more power in the company. Remember most recently he's reported that he has 9.2 percent, but then if he joined the board it means he couldn't go over 15.
So he decided to not join the board and obviously he made the offer for 43 billion and then the board decided no we're not going to accept that and it looks like it's going to be a classic wall street battle of billionaires and conglomerates. So that's what a poison pill is, and it was widely reported at the end of last week and over the weekend that twitter is prepared to do this, which some would argue, is very much like cutting off your nose to spite your face because it does. I would argue honestly it's a detriment to the current shareholders because you're diluting it um. Obviously that's something that needs to be considered and i would argue, there's a fair. I guess opinion: let's put it that this could be really not the best for the shareholders to do this type of a thing, and some would argue, then maybe it's against your fiduciary responsibility as a shareholder, especially as a board member, and then someone pointed out this. These are the current board members and how much they have and as you're going to put it together very very quickly. The board members don't own much at all, which is kind of crazy. They are making big big decisions and not even asking shareholders.
It's not even going to a shareholder vote which to me is interesting because you're in the scenario where i think a lawyer and remember, i don't speak legalese. I'm definitely not a lawyer to me when you have an offer of 5420. That's how much elon offered to buy out twitter and bring it private 5420. It's obviously a premium, and i think it's enough of a premium that you should put it to a shareholder vote once again.
These are my own opinions and they didn't even do that. As you can see, it's kind of wild that i don't know how much they really represent shareholders when they own such a low percentage themselves, and then elon comes in at 9.2 percent, which is obviously way more than all of these guys put together. Might i add um, but now we're in a scenario where i think a good lawyer could argue that the entire board has gone against its fiduciary responsibility by not even putting it to a shareholder vote. But then don't forget we're in a scenario where the people who look into that i.e the sec.
Well, they notoriously hate elon. So it's really like the highest level of drama. You could possibly get to you're at the drama of regulatory bodies and billionaires fighting where like yeah okay, maybe they would be willing to look in it for someone who they like, but they are like clearly outspokenly against elon. So it gets into a very, very crazy situation, but i just thought this was interesting to bring up that the people making these decisions and not allowing it to go to a shareholder vote, particularly own, almost like no shares elon musk can't afford to buy twitter and Would have to borrow against tesla stocks, so this is kind of an interesting thing, but as soon as you really think about it, you might think like no duh, so elon we're somewhere between 250 275 billion dollars and a lot of his net worth is tied up In the current price of tesla, it's not like he has that much money in his bank account no he's a massive equity holder of tesla and various other companies, but mainly tesla. So when you're at this level, these big players, they don't have that much money invested in. Let's say their bank account almost all their money is actually invested. Um, when you have this much money, if you were to have it in a bank account, you would literally lose millions of dollars a day because of inflation, so for them they keep it invested and when they need money when they need to be more liquid, they Get a loan against it with their equity, their assets being their collateral. Just that's kind of how the world of these billionaires run.
Elon musk can't afford to buy twitter according to an nyu professor scott, like this is a little bit of just like a click bait type of a thing to say, because no billionaire would just have 43 billion in cash. That's just not how this world works. Despite offering 43 billion, musk has 2.9 phil 0.2.95 billion in cash per bloomberg. Billionaires index musk would need a loan against tesla shares and stocks would tank galloway said on a podcast uh.
I don't think that they would tank. I really really don't think that they would tank at all, especially with musk. At this point he did recently do some pre-recorded interviews at the end of last week, uh saying that he has very much. He has a plan b um.
I bet in this world he's probably already talking to some people who might want to go into this with him, but i think he could get loans against his ownership in tesla and it probably wouldn't be that big of a deal. I find it a far stretch that it would cause tesla to tank uh. Once again. I think this is a little bit more of a click bait type of a thing, but i just wanted to inform people of how they actually do it.
Elon musk's the interests of twitter's board members are simply not aligned with shareholders, as the company continues to its push to prevent a takeover by the billionaire, and this is all coming back to not only yes could he most likely buy it if he wants it. Obviously, but more so of this um the fact that the board members pretty much don't own much of it on like relative to even jack relative to elon relative, to vanguard relative to blackrock the current board members they're just there to do their once a quarter. Vote of, like okay, i'm going to show up i'll, take my fat paycheck for it, and now i would argue that, like it's, someone could make a case of. Do they actually represent the common shareholder um.
I think someone who's paying attention to the storyline. It's not that hard to put a case together that uh they they might not really elon. Musk, says the economic interests of twitter board. Members are simply not aligned with the shareholders. Musk is twitter's largest individual shareholder and made a 43 billion offer to buy the company twitter push back by adopting a poison pill defense to prevent a hostile takeover, and last but not least, i just thought this was intriguing now that elon, for this particular thing we're Talking about the world's richest man, um very interesting stuff, elon musk, the world's richest man, says he doesn't own a home right now and rotates around friends spare runes. What a wild, absolutely bonkers headline, a guy who has the most money ever does not own a home and he like bums it with his friends like hey man. Can i like stay on your futon tonight? The world's richest man said he doesn't own a home and crashes on friends couches. I don't even know in a place right now, i'm literally staying at friends places.
This came out just a couple days ago. If i travel to the bay area, which is where most of tesla's engineering is, i basically rotate through friends spare bedrooms, even though he could probably buy the entire area he's literally crashing on buddy's futons. In a recent interview with vanity, fair musk's, on-again off-again partner grime said he sometimes lived below the poverty line. He refused to buy a new matrix after he said he had a hole in it and in 2015, google's co-founder and then ceo larry page said that sometimes when musk visited silicon valley, he would email page and say i don't know where to stay tonight.
Can i come over? How insane is that that is so ridiculous? So if i guess that's just how you become the world's richest man, is you don't own a house, you stay at friends places and you don't buy your avocado toast uh. That's here. I was thinking that it was always a joke of like millennials and gen z going out and like losing money because they buy their coffee at starbucks. But uh it looks like that's.
The secret to becoming the world's richest person is just don't own enemies. Anything and crash on your friend's house definitely doesn't have anything to do with, like being the ceo and founder of some of the most successful companies on this planet, uh just crash on futons, no avocado, toast and you're well, on your way to being the world's richest Person all right, so those are kind of the headlines. I wanted to remind everyone, especially if you're just tuning in right now it is tax day. So if you're in the u.s, don't forget that you, unless you've already filed an extension that yes, your taxes are due today so uh beyond that.
Now, let's just get into some of the specifics of maybe some opportunity. The s p 500 recently had a beautiful push of 11 almost 11, and since then, it's given up about five percent we're down a little bit more in pre-market. This is a gap down scenario the market's going to open in less than seven minutes uh. So a little bit of a gap up opportunity, a gap fill play. Opportunity looks like we're. Gon na open 437.15. the low on friday was 437.68, so you could play that gap bill to the upside. A quick little bullish play uh something to pay attention to uh right now.
I would wait for opening to really, i don't know see if i'm gon na be bullish or bearish we're kind of in that no man's land. And let me further explain what i mean by that. So we pushed up we're coming down and we are at support and obviously the next resistance is 441. The next support is below this one is around 430..
So that's the technical argument, i would say from the fundamental argument: this is more so going to be related to what's going on with the fed and more specifically, how hawkish are they going to be? How dovish are they going to be? What i'm looking for is basically we've been trending actually pretty nicely. We had a bear trend, a bull trend, a bear trend, a bull trend, a bear trend, this right now, in more of like a multi-day, maybe even sometimes a multi-week has been very nice at a trend right now. What i'm looking for is basically to just put in the bottom, the bottom it might be this it looked like we were starting to chop, maybe putting in a little bit of a reversal. But with this like mini gap down, there's a bit more bearishness and if you look at the asian market that was a bit red even though they had uh.
China specifically had good gdp growth numbers, so there's uh various things that need to be considered day over day, but what i'm particularly looking for and let's say for like more of a medium-term swing type of a trade, i'm looking for a classic like i just want To break the previous days high and hold above that, and then i'm looking to ride the trend to the upside, because right here, i'm like okay, we've been trending downward and, like is how long is this going to last not going to last um this on any Day's notice could really get messed up by maybe a particular big company, either beating on earnings or missing on earnings or maybe the fed which will come in early may. These are all things that like need to be paid attention to, but just purely from a technical perspective, we had a nice bullish push. We have a bearish push, i'm just waiting for this push to end. It could end right here.
It could end at 4 30. Something like that, i'm just waiting for an end and then i'm looking for that kind of rubber band reversion play to at least give us a decent size push to the upside, which i think we could all capitalize on and obviously generically. You could apply that to the nasdaq 100. You could apply that to the small cap sector um.
There are various gaps that could be played here and there, but this is just kind of like my general opinion of what's going on, oil has been showing a lot of strength. We talked about this uh, which really like actually leads me into cei, which is holding quite a bit of gains early this morning up around 14 after gaining 5.6. On thursday of last week mullen we had some news related to like in-house battery development. Obviously, those gains are not holding from early this morning. Um, let's quickly show you amc flat, similar to gme speaking of amc and jimmy short interest of 19.6 um and then jimmy a short interest of 19.8, so very, very comparable early. This morning, um, we are a couple minutes out. We are sub three minutes out um. This is your breakdown of the overall market um, i wouldn't say today.
I wanted to do this and i couldn't find any good information for all of you of how the market usually reacts on tax day and this one's a little bit of a strange one. Just because it got like postponed like we're kind of in a weird tax time right now, um, so probably not the best data, but overall i do want to remind you from a seasonal perspective april is a very very bullish month. Thus far, we have not seen a bullish april at all. In fact, we've seen a bearish april, so we're seeing a little bit of a mismatch of historically what happens on a seasonal basis to actually this time around like this very particular april, but that's exactly i.
I guess in a certain sense of what leads me back to what i was just kind of pitching to you about the overall market of how i think yeah it's a little bit bearish right now, but i'm just looking for a classic like either a macd crossover Or maybe some bullish divergence in the rsi, i'm looking for various signals to align. That tells me in the short term, a bottom is put in and looking kind of for a reversionary bounce to the upside in the overall market, which i think could bode well for individual equities all right now, with all that being said, uh i want to. Oh, a tyrion people are asking about a tyrion how's that one looking in pre-market uh. Some people were just asking.
Let me put in a tyrion happy to do it. A tyrian short interest: 41 percent cost to borrow 271.. It's on the threshold list, utilization maxed out and it's on the lower side of a float, a tyrion. If this gets going like uh.
Clearly, the shorts could be under quite a bit of pressure, clearly clearly clearly um, all right. The bell is about to go diggity ding, ding ding in about 45 seconds. So let me remind you uh. Today's stream is sponsored by public, don't forget to sign up up to 70 of free stock.
It is free to sign up literally if you get rocking with account. I think you need to deposit a hundred dollars. You get free money, there's no reason, especially if you're in the u.s to not do it no payment for order flow. No market makers um very, very happy to be partnered up with them, just because i think they're trying to be as transparent as you possibly can be, and you don't really get that that often in the world of brokers, which is something that we've all painfully learned Over the past year and a half now um, let's get going today, i know i'm a little bit if you guys are just joining in right now, i'm fully aware that i'm under the weather, i'm just trying to truck through this with all of you, i got The old rona ding any ding, ding ding, the casino - is open. All right, we're gon na get spy uh did the gap fill already occur. That would have been a nice play. Hang out, things are a little bit laggy all right, so we have a tyrion popping. So that should definitely stay on the chart.
Whoa we're seeing a lot of things popping wow all right, so i guess people stoked about filing their taxes today. What's the short interest on eyebrow wigs um, it's high but they're, most likely gon na get squeezed out most likely gon na get very, very squeezed out. If you haven't already uh, don't forget to join up with the moonging by hitting the subscribe button, you can subscribe on rumble and youtube and you can follow on twitter. We stream on all three.
So if one of them is like taken down we're gon na be on, ideally the other two man, congestion, sucks, drink lots of fluids, you know me got the cappuccino uh i do apologize. I can actually even feel it myself like i'm just in such like a a brain fog, a brain fog. Well, the spy is ripping absolutely ripping. It just shows how uh addicted i am to hanging out with all of you can i show twitter happily all right.
Well, amc got rejected right there. Let's see what twitter's doing twitter going down folks spy popping matt uh. How should i play so far? I got 500 shares 960. Should dollar cost every engine buy hold cut my losses.
Uh, i mean russell. Let me check out so far really quick. I would kind of need to know your thesis for getting in uh to me i am seeing a bit of bearishness, but like were you in it for a short-term trade, were you in it for like a long-term investment? Uh so far kind of getting beat up with um the changes in like i guess when loans are due right now um, so you have some like government movement. That's going against you hitting your stock um.
If you like it for the long term, you could sell covered calls against it and lower your cost basis. Um, if you want that capital, if you think there's other better moves in the market uh, you can reallocate your capital as in, like liquid, cut your losses. Lick your wounds and maybe make it back. If you see better opportunity, it really comes back to like what was your thesis um.
Also, what was your risk, because is this an all-time low? It looks like it's an all-time low. Um the rsi is kind of low. It i would need to know like what your reasoning was initially for the trade, because my risk probably would have been. I don't know when did you get in you got in at 9.60? So let's say you got in here: it didn't get the breakout.
My risk would have been 883 and my risk. Definitely if i didn't cut there would have been 774, so i probably would have been out of the play because from a technical perspective, i don't see any support. Um, like you're you're kind of in you're in an untested area, so you don't know where support exists. Good question, though oh hi mork, has the short interest decreased over time for both gme and amc. Also, do you think buying hotel strat has changed over the last year, get well soon, um decreased over time. Well, it depends what time period you're kind of looking at amc's has actually now over the past couple of weeks, past couple months really has been holding pretty consistent at 20 percent uh jimmy uh really had a rally. It was closer to 10 percent, shot up to 25-ish and right now, it's cooking at around 20. um.
If you are comparing it to what we saw in january of 2021. Well at that point for gme was over a hundred, so it really depends your time frame. Um of increasing or decreasing also, do you think the buying horrible strat has changed over the last year. I guess i don't know how to like succinctly answer that one.
I think there are many many people, probably hundreds of thousands of people who have done exactly that. They bought and they're continuing to hold. I think other people have maybe gotten a little bit more advanced and have started collecting premium on the trade. I think it comes to the individual person.
I i would like to think that maybe not necessarily changed for some people. It's changed, but i hope all people have learned more about the market in the past year because, if you're just sitting there and you bought stock and you're just watching the chart day over day and not doing anything well, are you also like at a minimum? I hope people have learned more about technical analysis. Learn more about options, learn more about what's going on. In the macro economic backdrop, even if people choose and that's obviously their own decision to exclusively just hold - that's, like i said their decision, all the power to them.
I still very very much hope that they've learned more about the market and learn more about what does and doesn't make sense, and then i'm still hoping that other people took that knowledge and were able to make additional capital in the market from their new skill set. Uh twitter falling yeah twitter. Well. This is interesting because i'm almost afraid to really make any decisions on twitter from a technical standpoint and me who i think most of my training decisions are made on technicals of like okay where's support.
Where's resistance. Twitter is in the realm of obviously the storyline with the board and elon, and it's very very much touch and go um. Are they actually going to enact a poison pill? Who does elon have on his side? Does he already have the collateral secured from various banks, or maybe one big bank who's willing to give him that much uh? Did he team up with other ultra high net worth individuals? Did he partner up with like vcs um twitter? It's a very, very interesting storyline that i do not believe. Technicals are the thing to go on right now. I i just don't, because any crazy thing could be announced at any moment. So for me on twitter, it really is just a tough technical play. I would argue: it's not a technical play. It's just.
Do you think who do you think is going to win the fight if you're going to play twitter if you're long on twitter you're, basically saying that you think elon's gon na win? In my humble opinion, if you are betting against twitter, you're saying that you think the twitter board is gon na win, i.e, elon's going to lose. So it's that's all up to you uh right now. I have no twitter position. I just want to be completely forthcoming with all of you uh, but i'm very, very interested in the story, just because it's a learning thing for all of us of what the world of wall street and billionaires fighting really how it plays out.
In reality he is not good for the company um, i mean that's an opinion um i mean i have my opinions. A lot of people have their opinions, but there are some people who think he wouldn't be good for the company and other people think he would be very, very good for the company, like everyone's allowed, to have their own opinions. But what i want to make uh clear is this: isn't the difference of like some billionaire coming in and trying to buy the company um and like some some like random guy who, like built up himself and is now the ceo like that this is a billionaire Versus a billionaire, i want to be very, very clear about that. This isn't some guy who like worked up the corporate ladder and now he's trying to protect twitter like that uh perrog is another billionaire like let's be very, very clear that this is the fight of a billionaire versus another billionaire, and they have two ideologically opposed opinions Of what freedom of speech is uh, this isn't like some like random guy, i.e, perag, who, like is really similar to you, similar to me, and he represents like what we want like.
Let's be explicitly clear that this is one billionaire who doesn't like another billionaire and those billionaires are fighting. Freedom of speech has nothing to do with a corporate publishing platform um. As a company yeah i mean i, i see what you're saying of like they can make their own rules, but i think that's. What elon's point is is that we should have a public digital forum that is freedom of speech uh.
I believe his recent commentary is that it's vital for humanity and for him this isn't necessarily like um a business play like he thinks it's imperative that society has a public forum that we all engage in. That runs by the rules of freedom of speech. I think there are various things that elon does, that isn't necessarily tied to him, making money, for example with spacex, like i'm sure. Obviously he wants to make money, but for spacex he thinks it's very, very important that humanity and humans are a multi-planetary species. Like that's, very important to him with twitter. It seems like it's very important to him that there is a public forum that anyone can engage in and as long as you're, not like breaking the various laws related to freedom of speech. You're allowed to engage in it, which i believe the law and please like. Maybe i'm saying it wrong, but i believe freedom of speech is you can say whatever you want as long as you're, not calling for violence against anyone.
I think it's like something along those lines. Uh, that is write it in a nutshell, isn't it um, but i don't know the user numbers, but i think more people use twitter than they do reddit, i believe, hey matt. Thanks for all you do appreciate. I appreciate you on this red day, crypto starting to pump a little thanks again, how is crypto looking crypto we're getting a little bit of green there over the past 24 hours, still a bit in the red um as long as my body stays together today, i Will be doing a crypto stream uh at 2 pm, so is amc dead.
Now uh i mean to me it's not dead, but once again these are my own opinions and i am not a financial advisor. I am not clairvoyant. I can't tell the future um, but for me, amc and gme are an investment in to me. It's a symbolic investment in the fight for market transparency and fairness will like.
There are certain people who try to guarantee the most. You can't guarantee anything if you are investing in amc and gme, i'm telling you you should only be putting money on the table that you are okay with losing. There is a chance that this doesn't work for me. I am willing to take that chance because that's how much of the movement i care in um, i think there are particular things that you could cite that: okay, uh things are actually like from a fundamental fundamental perspective, improving obviously, as as we get out of the Covet era that will benefit amc, they're continuing to buy more and more and more movie theater chains, most recently buying seven from bow tie, cinemas they're, getting a little bit more into the world of crypto through accepting crypto s payment and also with nfts, and then on.
The flip side, gme, has been putting the initial steps together to completely transform the company uh looking at this new nft marketplace, which the bait is already out and we're looking for the full version to be out by the end of june of this year um. So i would argue yes, that the trajectory for both companies is improving and that's, if you're looking at them from a fundamental perspective, but also, if you were to do a classic fundamental breakdown at this moment in time, are both fundamentally overvalued yeah. They are, but also, i think value could be more than fundamental value. I think value can also come from having a very passionate community support base, which is what amc and jamie have so for me, value is now becoming the world of fundamental value, plus community value, and i think it's that latter part that people in classic wall street, Like and like analytics analysis commentary are kind of missing out on, i think they're, so so wrapped up in the world of like what this is its earnings per share, and this is what it's trading at on in terms of its uh price or earnings ratio like That type of a thing - here's its revenue, blah blah blah, but as long as there's people that are continuing to care about market fairness and transparency, as people are continuing to dig into just some of the craziness that happens in the market. To me, amc and jamie are a vehicle for that type of an investment. So for me, that's why i'm in amc and gme and if i have to ride it to zero, i have to ride it to zero, then, but that's exactly why i've also bet money that i'm willing to go down to zero. At a certain point, you still have to put money on the table that you're willing to lose, because, if you're not doing that, um you're really just not having any financial responsibility whatsoever. Could you use amc as a greed, slash fear indicator for retail uh? I don't think so because amc, if you look at its dollar volume traded per day, um, it's probably too small compared to retail in itself, remember retail is represents billions and billions, probably if not like trillions of dollars, while amc not like not all of retail, is In amc and gme there's actually some retail that hate amc and jimmy there is some retail that don't even really follow amc and gme and they're just doing something else.
I know in our world it's easy to get caught into our echo chamber to think that, like in the world of the market, people are also following amc and jimmy every single day, um, it's just. That is a little bit of the sign of our echo chamber that there's some people who they heard about the story in january. They thought it was interesting back in 2021 and since then, it just hasn't crossed their mind. Like the market is big, i mean you're, seeing the flow of billions and billions of dollars with over 5 000.
10 000 different equities um. There are people who the way uh a lot of people within the ape community, think about amc and gme uh. They think about that in crypto and they don't even track equities whatsoever and all they do day in and day out is talk about bitcoin and ethereum. There are many many people on this planet engaging in the market in one way or the other, and it's it's easy to get caught up in your own world and think that that's somehow representative of everyone in the markets, where sometimes you're, right and other times, maybe Not so much mullen, i see some people all right, a tyrion not holding mullen coming down what's going green today, folks cei is looking good. Cei is up 17, but other than that oil is, i just see oil pla plays are up. Oxy is one that i'm a fan of. This is up 4.7 and what's devon energy dvn. This is another one that i'm a fan of so oil's.
Looking good today, the spy we definitely got. The gap fill that we spoke about early this morning, uh. So that successfully gap filled, how is varu doing that was a hot one. Last week, veruva ruvaru uh niall more and more people talking about niall bit nile holdings up 27.
Well, this one definitely crushed it. I don't really know what the news was. Maybe just did very well on their earnings. It was perfectly in line with expectations.
Maybe they had a good announcement uh. So it looks like the name of the game. Today is energy uh? So if we look at what's green a little bit of i know it doesn't quite feel it, but i'm actually seeing more green in the s p 500 than i expected. But a noteworthy amount of green is right here in the energy sector, with oxy kind of leading the way.
What's this other one ctra cotyra energy, those are the ones that are doing uh, mpc marathon doing well uh. We have a bit of red over in travel. Obviously, as oil is going up, that makes travel more expensive hurts their bottom line. Charles schwab did very very poorly on their earnings uh getting crushed right now.
The bank of bnny melling getting crushed uh once again. This is coming back to kind of that pattern that we're seeing of the banks that have a pillar of their business in the world of trading are doing well. The banks that don't have a trading sector not doing well. What was the twitter price when elon bought it uh well off the top of my head does: did it report it on fintel uh owners, institutional owners, elon musk? Let's see, let's see, i don't know if it actually gave his price.
I think he's slowly but surely been buying since, like january. So if we were to like roughly estimate it, probably let's just call it like 38 ish dollars roughly like somewhere in here. He started buying it in january and he was buying it. So i would, i would expect that 38 is actually a high level for it, but also, let's keep in mind.
I think this is actually a really really good example of we know a massive amount was bought. He bought about 2.8 2.9 billion dollars worth of it, but also this is how you could pull something off without sending it sky high um. This is actually a really good example of how sometimes, even with big money when like to me, if i were to tell all of you guys that, right now, if amc, if someone were to buy a billion dollars worth of it, you'd be like yeah. No, like logically, it would make sense that it could go absolutely sky high and the reason i'm saying a lesser value is just the proportionate, like difference in market cap between, let's say, amc or gme and compared to twitter, so even of a billion dollars. But if you do a little bit and kind of do it appropriately, you can kind of get it in there without actually much of a huge increase in price. The reason it popped up here is because his purchase then became public. It was the public's knowledge of his purchase that caused it to go sky high, not him actually doing the buying um so kind of an interesting thing to note. There veru actually looking a little bit weak a little bit weak on varue uh spy, just kind of coasting right now, so energy still the good looking plays what is bank of america bac, crushing it had good earnings travis.
What's up, i had three business possible. My family had three businesses bought special to publicly trading companies. Well, that's pretty awesome. Wait.
People are telling me to check mullen still kind of getting beat up, even though they had some interesting announcements this morning down eight percent on the day uh. What else we have cei is looking good, i mean really. The energy sector is looking particularly good. Today, the overall market was showing some strength kind of we got that gap fill overall.
Let me check what the play was on locals. That was posted on friday. Credit spread play: oh, that is printing right now, that is printing right now the credit spread play on the s p, 500. So anyone who is there or on locals who took that trade? That's that's an easy, layup, easy layup, i'm not seeing much green today! Folks, not much green at all netflix.
We might be seeing some movement uh higher volatility this week, just because it is reporting earnings, midweek, midweek, veru, interesting technical development on viru. This is the first time since april 11th, well really april 8th that we've actually gone below the previous day's low uh. This could potentially be signaling the end of verus push if it closes below 13 20.. The line in the sand is 1320.
That's what i would be watching on veru, i inpp when yeah these. These are all energy-related plays um shown some green, but it's actually red on the day right now. What's the other one imp, there was another one that we would look at when we were talking about these people are talking what's casa, what happened here up 61 had to be some sort of announcement. Casa, saying verizon has acquired a 9.9 stake in the communications equipment company for approximately 40 million dollars, so you have verizon buying almost 10 percent 9.9 up a lot cei.
Oh, it was indio was the other one that had uh when we were talking about inp, so that was actually down, though it gapped down, even though it's fighting back so it seems like a solid ener, like seems like the best energy play, at least that people Have been paying attention to uh in this particular chat today is cei. Is the one that's crushing it up? 19, after gaining 5.6 percent, someone is calling out the spy dropping not holding those gains. Do i think ford will rebound to the 20s uh given enough time. Yeah, it depends what time frame you're, putting that on, but uh ford's pivot into the world of evie has been pretty strong um. I think it's just a matter of time ford's the kind of play that i would just get into and like just kind of forget about it, like i don't know, if i would actively trade it, it doesn't have the craziest volatility or the craziest ranges uh, but It seems like a nice kind of slow burn, slow growth type of play all right, so the spy coming down uh bank of america holding its nice gains up 2.5 uh bnny melon. What was the other one that? How are all these banks doing? Jpm, jp morgan up uh city up goldman sachs up uh, so the big banks, the banks that have exposure to trading, are looking good, uh wells. Fargo. Surprisingly, that one is up morgan stanley, that one's up, so it's just uh who's, the one that's getting absolutely slaughtered today, charles schwab, bank of new york, so bk and schwab.
Let's take a look at those bk down two percent, but trying to grind back back up and charles schwab that one is down nine percent, so out of the financial sector, most is doing well, but schwab getting slaughtered. Uh cei camber energy broke above a dollar holding above the dollar. The next stop, i would say, is a dollar seventeen. This thing might get moving again.
Folks might get moving again, crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy. What else do we have going on today, another beautiful day in the markets, another a or you to full day? Let me see if there's any breaking news that we should be getting into uh. Yes, casa, so that's the one that uh we already kind of went over it, but for all the people who are just tuning in right now they struck a deal with verizon, so fundamental development. There, i probably wouldn't chase it.
I don't want to go long on something that's up 62 already. Micron could be a good dip by amd. Getting beat up. We have some support at 90.
Semiconductors nvidia is that a very nice look at this support. Support, support, support, support, support, uh nvidia. I like nvidia, especially as like a long-term investment and just being at a key support. I think this is actually a good dollar cost average opportunity um, but even if it broke below it after me buying here, i wouldn't care that much it's just i'm buying in on some weakness.
Investing in on some weakness all right, let's see what the whales are doing today, let's get into it interesting, so betting against tech, q, q, q, q, q q q q p, put uh spy, puts a twitter call for 50 for 32 days out. The big bet that i'm seeing off the bat is an aa, 1.31 million. That's a put for 70 88 days out, though um i'm not seeing too many that are short expiration spy. Put put qq put snapchat calls.
Remember, snapchat is reporting this week, uh interesting, so you're, seeing a bet of almost 400 000 for four days out on snapchat between 42 and 38. how's snapchat doing today. So we we see some bullish bets on snapchat. For this week, tesla calls coming in a q. Call coming in a spy call coming in lots of tesla calls for four days out so they're betting on tesla earnings, uh. 980. 980. 985.
980.. So we see bullish bets on tesla's earnings, bullish bets on snapchat's earnings, um uber. We also see a 1.27 million bet. That's for 60 days out 37.50, so i would say the overall market we're seeing more puts.
But then there are some standout call plays more bullish, plays, namely being tesla and snapchat for this week's earnings and then other big money was uber and a a. What is a a again, a a is alakola alcola, so a big bet on that, so those were more in the distance so in the distance, uber and aaa short term snapchat and tesla. These are all call plays all bullish bets and, in the short term, uh we're also seeing bets against the overall market, i.e the spy and the qs aluminum. I think they are aluminum uh, aluminium, aluminum products, yeah, it's an aluminum play which hey getting into commodities.
I suppose don't hate it mullen not doing much how's the tyrion. Looking a tyrion coming back to life, a tyrion could go absolutely wild. Definitely a worthwhile watch all right. So that's what we have going on there.