Stranger Markets: Inflation Report 🎈🎈🎈(EXPECT SWINGS!)
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Now is yes, oh do straw your software is now there's no to go moon gang, happy, happy, inflation day, happy happy, payday, friday and hey happy stranger things day, stranger markets, um! If you haven't looked at the markets yet today, they're not good they're, not good. In the slightest um, the cpi report came out at a little bit in this about 30 minutes ago, the consumer price index, aka inflation and judging from the market, you can quickly figure out that it was hot. It was extraordinarily hot, which means that it came in over estimate, but the estimate was already high. We are continuing this four decade: high level of inflation, so with inflation being very, very high.
This is the signal that hey the fed isn't doing what they need to do so they're, most likely going to be more hawkish and being more hawkish means. Okay, it's going to have that side effect. A negative bearish side effect. So we're going to be talking about that i'll, give you the numbers, it's already already posted in local, so you could check it out there if you're a member there is that free membership um, but today, on top of inflation and all that with everything's being so Haywire i mean geez over the past year, gas is up.
Fifty percent food is up twelve percent. If you look at poultry, uh beef fish uh up even more we're talking over 30 35, it's crazy earnings on a relative basis are going down. It's a rough time which i think makes honestly as much as we mess around and i'm a degenerate and do all this dumb shit. I mean i've already been trading in pre-market because i like the way it makes me feel, but it makes today's like this day a little bit more special, because we have the opportunity to give back.
I and the moon gang group running the whole show we have the opportunity to give back to you. That's why it's payday friday, one of you folks, at 10 a.m, in just under an hour, will be getting 1 000 um we've been talking about this. For the past week and i'm excited to see how it goes out and i'm excited to speak with the person who ends up winning the thousand dollars, i hope they can put it to good use, so that will be going down in just under one hour. 10 a.m et we will be giving away 1 000 monies uh, 1, 000 denarios, but in terms of the market we should probably get a lot of that figured out because market open at 9 30 is gon na lead to most likely some crazy, crazy, crazy volatility.
So, let's see how this all plays out, but before we get into that, i do want to switch it up and give a very, very quick and warm shout out to today's stream sponsor attendees. Who is more than excited to be sponsoring the stream that is payday friday, so attendees is pin to the top of chat it's in the description of the video if you've ever been looking at the world of options like hey, what's the big money doing attendees, you Can get it for free right now it's for iphones, but they will be rolling out with a web platform and also android in the next couple weeks. Next couple months it's coming, i've seen some screenshots and i know what's going on uh so right now, it's just for your iphone, but you get free social sentiment analysis. They also have a connection to wall street bets, but i think one of the most valuable things not only that social sentiment is free options, flow you're not going to have to pay anything. Once again, it is pinned to the top of chat. It's in the description of the video download it it's not gon na cost, you anything and i think, when you get rocking with it, you're actually gon na really really like it once again pinned in the description check it out. It is free free free now, with that out of the way check out the bloodbath uh right now you see the spy uh 8. 30.
The cpi report came out 8.6. They were expecting 8.3 for year over year, not a good scenario, so the spy, the q's tanking we have oil taking a bit of a breather. The dollar rocked all the way up to one four uh 104 excuse me, and then you could take a quick look at gold. Uh gold popped on the news.
Uh you just. This is a bearish thing. This is a bearish thing, because, with inflation being so hot many market participants are assuming that this is going to force the federal reserve to be more hawkish. That will help battle inflation, but a side effect of being more hawkish is creating an environment.
That's not so accommodative for really businesses, thus really the side effect in the market is that things go down down down down down. That's where we're at today. So i don't know if i need to be more clear about this, but in terms of the overall market, i'm obviously bearish today and in the short term. So for the remainder of today, probably going into next week, i'm gon na stay bearish, because it's not a good scenario and when you really start to unpack the numbers and look at some of the things that are going on relative to wages.
Looking at. What's going on with mortgages, looking at what's going on in the world of energy? This is why i'm telling you yes recently we saw a pop. I kept telling you bear market rally. Bear market rally bear market rally.
I do not think we've seen the 2022 low in the markets quite yet, because you got to be a little bit realistic about the overall scenario. It is not a good overall scenario, so let me give you some of these numbers, but very quickly. I just want to see what we have going on here: the dow down one point: percent s p down 1.4: the nasdaq down 1.7 oil popping 121.50 and yields obviously going up because now the chance of a june july and august 50, bips rate increase is extraordinarily High before you've heard of 25 points from the fed at the fomc meetings, now the next three very, very, very good chance. It's going to be a 0.5 rate increase just because that's one of the tools that the fed has it's at its disposal to fight inflation.
The other thing is quantitative tightening, which is a little bit even more extreme right now, instead of doing all the buying buying buying that they did during the rona era, now they're doing selling selling selling to the tune of 47.5 billion a month and in september they're Gon na double that up to 95 billion, so those are some of the numbers you need to know and understand. What's going on with qt aka quantitative tightening, that's one tool and the other one is raising interest rates and with interest rates, we're already starting to see kind of an impact on that on mortgages. We're seeing a drop off in mortgage demand, which means less and less people are going out to buy houses which is kind of interesting demand's dropping. But to my understanding that particular market, the supply is already so constrained that prices are staying elevated, but there is concern about the current trend of what's going on in the world of real estate. So, let's get into some very, very quick things and then let's get into some degenerate training. Five things to know before the stock market opens today friday, june 10th, aka payday friday, also inflation day wall street isn't a holding pattern ahead of key inflation report. Well, as you can see, the inflation report came out and the market is getting its teeth. Kicked in consumer prices last month are expected to remain highly elevated.
The numbers that you need to know are this: over the past month it came in at one percent. The expectation was point seven. If you're, excluding food and energy it came in at 0.6, they were expecting 0.5 year over year were up 8.6, which is a six percent year-over-year increase. They were expecting 8.3 percent energy is up 3.9 percent of the month.
Food is up 1.2 on the month over. The past year, gas is up 50 and food is up. 12 weekly earnings are down 0.7. So if i were to summarize that for you, it's fucked national average for gas prices, just one cent below five dollars per gallon.
That is a new all-time record. Two stay-at-home stocks get crushed on signals of weak business uh. What is this stitch and docusign? So if you got some stitch, fix or docusign puts, congratulations to you, capital riot house panel blames trump for january 6 attempted coup um so when it rains it pours when everything is going haywire, why not throw some other things into because uh hey it's fun? Let's, like just get extreme volatility, apparently billionaire invested david einhorn sees gold rising much higher and says the fed is bluffing about its ability to tame inflation. I don't know if they're bluffing, i think, they're just saying what they need to to.
I don't know, keep their jobs, make sure that people don't full-on panic, but i find it comical um at one point: they're like don't worry about it like, oh, okay, it's transitory! Like oh, the only reason we're here is because of putin like all this shit, maybe you maybe you're just not that good at your job. I get it. You weren't handed the easiest job, but i mean you should also literally be an expert in that field, but we're being told by the fed. It's transitory, don't worry about it. It's going to go away, we're being told by the treasury secretary that hey we're not going to a recession, everything's fine, like inflation's high, but we'll take care of it. I don't like this concept of being overly optimistic and i also don't think they should be pessimistic. Just be realistic of like okay, we see this when we see these data points. This is exactly what we do, but they keep telling us we're not even that far behind the curve.
We got this under control. Don't you worry the fuck you do? Do you just see what happened like we're getting crushed right now and then they're sitting there like yeah? No, we got it under control. Like are you fucking kidding me? It's ridiculous u.s mortgage applications are in meltdown and the threat to house prices is growing and economist says so: basically, mortgage rates are going up and the demand for new mortgages are going down. The u.s housing market is seeing its worst contraction since 2006, as mortgage applications.
Crumble, says freddie, mac economist. So once again, yes, real estate is still extremely high, but that's more because of a massive lack of supply. But right now, what we've seen roughly over the past month month and a half is a big downtrend in the desire for new mortgages, billionaire investor stanley druckenmiller. I love that name like what that that sounds like you're, a billionaire investor.
If your last name is druckenmiller hell, yeah you're, a billionaire investor, says we're six months into a bear market and it still has a way to run so we're in a bear trend. We're making lower highs, we're making lower lows, we're definitely in a bear trend. Ever since we found out that they were going to get into quantitative tightening, remember that fomc meeting on january 5th, this is the day where everything change. This is the day where voldemort tried to kill harry potter and it fucking backfired on him.
This is d-day. This is whatever you want to call it, but january 5th is when we got the meeting minutes from the december fomc meeting and they said: hey we're no longer doing quantitative, easing we're gon na. Do quantitative tightening and that's the difference between the fed, buying everything and selling everything it's very, very evident. The fed right here in march said: hey we're gon na do quantitative easing it ripped it ripped it ripped it ripped and then they said we're gon na.
Do quantitative, tightening and now we're selling selling selling when sometimes it's easy to over, complicate this and then other times you could just make it so comically easy, so comically easy to understand, fed, buys everything fed announces, it can start selling everything and, since then, lower highs. Lower lows, sometimes it could be explained with something as simple as that i once again to reiterate, still think the overall market's going down. If you look at the spy, the queues, the russell whatever you want, the overall market, i think there's more pain to endure and the argument that no we've already seen the bottom. I think it's a very, very weak argument. Is it possible? Is it possible that me in this super fashionable duck shirt is wrong? Yeah, it's possible. I mean you've seen me trading tesla yeah, once in a while. I get things wrong like a solid 75 of the time, but i think we're in that 25 of the time where i might be right on this one. Obviously, i'm not a financial advisor, but even in this case, do you care because, like what have the financial advisors gotten right in the past couple years, russia cuts key interest rate back to pre-war level.
So russia, even doing things with their central bank and to keep their ruble live, and actually the ruble's been doing well, because they've been able to make a lot of money still selling petroleum to china and india. The us top energy advisor urges india not to buy too much russian oil and says moscow's revenues are now higher than before the war. Moscow's revenues are now higher than before the war, because china and india are picking up cheap, cheap oil, as oil is currently ripping to 121 a barrel. It is insane so overall, the report came in today, and inflation is hot.
This is what you need to know. They estimated inflation to be bad. It came in worse than expected to fight these high inflationary levels. The fed needs to be more hawkish when you're more hawkish a side effect of that is putting more downward pressure on the market.
That's exactly why you're seeing the market sell off pay attention to the s p 500, the nasdaq see what's going on with the dollar, you can check dixie dxy, most likely going to be ripping ripping ripping the reason the dollar is going to go up is because They're most likely raising interest rates, and you could see that with the yield check out, what's going on with yields check out what's going on with the bond, this is the type of stuff that, if you want to be a trader, you want to be an investor. These are mega announcements, they have a clear and massive impact on the market and it takes a little bit of time because our education system, around especially around finance, is bullshit and non-existent, especially in the us. I don't know if you're out of the u.s, maybe you had a better education system as it relates to finance, but most of us you're learning this on your own and you probably weren't professionally, taught it or even taught it in our education system. Most of us - probably not professionally, so i get that it takes a bit of time, but it's super super important, because these are the types of things, especially in negative scenarios where you can keep yourself afloat and actually make money. So when there's this doom and gloom call, i want to make this explicitly clear that i don't think there's any need to actually panic. If anything, i find it to be more exciting, because the higher volatility actually means you can make more money. There's a couple studies out there that actually retail traders, like active retail traders, make more money in a bear market than they do in a bull market, because they're able to leverage off the crazy volatility. That's why we have the saying stairs up elevator down, and this is more of a psychology thing and there's a couple.
I don't know a couple different opinions out there, but overall fear relative to other emotions and psychological mindsets is much more prominent and much more powerful than something such as greed. That's exactly why people will slowly buy up and they'll feel good, but as soon as they see their money go away, they pull a rip cord all at once. Is that a good way to trade, or not? I mean hey. That's up to you like it's your own opinion, but overall, that's why we see this type of phenomena is stairs up elevator down when things go south, they go south quickly, because people, panic fear, is a bigger emotional driver than greed, and you got to remember that.
That's why, when things start to sell, it seems like they sell very, very hard and very very rapidly opposed to going up, and it's just a little bit different. Yes, there's a psychology aspect, there's also a money aspect. People tend to buy multiple times on the way up and sell all at once when they want to get out of the position. So there is some like financial backing to why we see it too, but overall, that is pretty much the like.
What we have going on today in the overall market. Also, don't forget, even though equities are going to be ripping today, oil's still sky high oil sitting at 121. As long as we're above 115, i think the odds of oil exceeding the high 120s - let's call 127.50, maybe even above 130.. I think it's extraordinarily high.
I've been trying to say this now for the past few months. I think for someone out there who maybe don't you, maybe you work a nine to five. You don't have time to watch the charts day over day minute over minute and you just kind of check in when you have that time available in your life. I think oil is an easy play.
It's something you can get leaps in, you could just invest in and you could check it once at the end of the day, once at the end of the week, but overall in terms of a medium medium term, just like bullish hold, i would be looking to The energy sector right now, i think, that's where there's quite a bit of an edge quite a bit of alpha whatever you want to call it, but remember these are my own opinions as much as i'm right, i'm wrong. Whatever it's we're degenerates here, you guys got to understand that um speaking of a degenerate uh, this was crazy. I need to share one thing with you and then we're gon na talk about payday friday um yesterday, you guys knew for quite a while. I was in xpx calls because i thought a bear market rally. Well, the bear market rally quickly came to an end, and you guys saw me like just getting my ass beat yesterday in my futures account. I was down 8 grand and, in my options account i was down six point. Two thousand yesterday it came from down from ten thousand to three point. Eight.
So that's six point. Two thousand, so options account lost. Sixty percent, sixty plus percent futures accounts loss, eight k. Well, i was getting whipsaw, no matter what i did.
The market did the other way and then around midday i was like. I don't know this might break down and i did some like yolo bearish stuff. I'm like i wonder if people are going to freak out about the cpi thing and i did that around noon around 1 and then i had some like errands to run and blah blah blah uh went to the dentist found out. I have no cavities, because i'm all about dental hygiene and apparently those yolo plays paid out the spx puts i locked in a 300 gain a little bit less than that, maybe like 275 and then in the futures market.
I ended up actually profitable on the day. I think i like made back 9k, so huge huge swings to the downside and i feel as lucky as could be, and i think that luck is already playing over into the morning um. Thus far this morning i knew that report was coming out at uh. Whatever time hang on at 8 30., so let me quickly show you this um.
So i've been trading like a madman already on the futures market, like look at all these trades, so it started right here, 833 down to 835 locked in a quick 2k there, and then we had 844 down to 845 locked in another 1k. Then we had 851 to 853 locked in another 1k and right here, i'm about to lock in another 500. If the market just goes down a little bit more. So this is what happens with volatility.
Is this i need to clarify this is full-on degenerate shit? Anyone who, like is a professional trader, a money manager, anything like this, they would look at this and they would cry on the inside and on the outside. This is not something someone else should be doing, but they also don't have like the power of this structure and they also don't have like seven shots of espresso in their system. So, like just remember, we're like not gon na, be all built the same here, but overall i'm excited for today. I think there's going to be quite a bit of volatility and quite a bit of volatility means hey if you're on the right side of it, you can make quite a bit of money right now.
My options account is completely flat and i'm just kind of waiting. I'm more than willing to burn some day trades. I see the dollar continuing to push right here, which i think means the market's going to come down. I'm a little surprised little surprise gold's coming down this much like i thought it was going to hold this, especially around 1850, but hey the cash session is going to start in about nine minutes. So, let's see how it all plays out. We just got to wait. We got to be patient and more exciting than all of that is in these tough times. It's always fun.
To help out a little bit more, we are going to be doing payday friday at 10 a.m. One of you, one of you lucky lucky ducks, is gon na be getting a thousand dollars in a mere 39 minutes. Um, we kind of gave it a little bit of a test drive last week and we gave away like 250 or something like that, and i think today it's gon na be uh okay, so that just filled so now, i'm completely flat, which means we could do The market opening d gen trade with all of you, so let me quickly switch over to this. What's the d gen trade market open? I am not asking you for the market on the day on the day, i'm pretty bearish on the day, i'm pretty bearish, i'm saying the market open.
Where do you think the market's going in the first three minutes? Uh? Do you think it's going to be red, or do you think it's going to be green here? Is a poll and then i'll set up the code? We only have a couple minutes because this has to run at like 9 28. So you guys have about like six minutes to get your vote in um. I'm excited, i think it's gon na be a good day. I think it's gon na be a money.
Making day is what i should say a money making day. What do we have dude? This inflation report is brutal. The dollar ripping gold holy shit um. I don't know if people are curious about this on the day, just because there's such other things going on, but amc 22 percent short interest, jimmy coming down to 23 red box.
Now, above 200., red box going through the roof at 223, crazy crazy, crazy, if you guys need levels for the spy. Here's! What i oh wow, we're actually below this right now holy guacamole, batman, uh! Yes, there will be an upside gap fill because we're going to be opening at 394 and the low from yesterday is 401, but remember, gaps do not have to be filled on day, one um, especially when you have such a an event as like the one we Literally just saw this morning cpi at 8 30 a.m. Um man, oh man, man, oh man, very quickly, a shameless plug when there are important things like this. I post it all here on locals.
It is ten dollars a month. It's a hundred dollars for the year. Um there are actually free promo codes right now, payday p-a-y-d-a-y, you can get a free month and check it out and see if you like it, but there's also just a free option where you can't write your own post, but you can read everyone else's post. So, at a minimum, if you're like hey, i don't know if it's for me, you just want the free account or maybe you just want to try the free promo code and get it the full premium for a month whatever. I just want you to know like when there's big important stuff - i post it all in here. Just so you all know so. Here's all the information on the like the cpi report and then also like what i'm looking for in the day. Usually i do like a day setup of here's, what i'm looking to do throughout the day, um macros.locals.com for a quick shameless plug there, but let's get going okay.
It is 9 24 and ooh golly golly golly golly. How is red box doing? This? Is just nuts red box up? Five percent in free market may be interesting to watch out of the gate. The dollar just doing its thing, i know, docusign's getting rocked stitch fix, is getting rocked tesla's below 700. tesla, with a 2.7 percent gap down wow wow wow, wow wow.
This is crazy. All right. I have a couple minutes for questions from you, so we could do like a rapid fire type of a thing as i'm waiting for uh. How will the winner be paid? Uh, probably just like paypal or i could sell you money.
I don't know paypal or zelle seem to me the most popular i think, like most people have a paypal and, if not, i don't know i'll, just ask the person how they want to be paid all right. What are your questions? Let them rip team. What are your questions all right? So 72 percent of you are saying red. You don't think.
There's gon na you guys in here are really not a fan of um like bounce back plays. Are you like little reversions? Let me set up the code. This will be running at all right. All right.
The code is good to go. I locked it in. Let me end this. Do you even hike bro? I like hiking, i'm a fan of hiking uh.
I want to win. How do i enter uh? You just have to post your twitter handle on the video on the thousand dollar giveaway video right here. I have posted this video. You just like you'll see that a lot of people post your twitter, i ig june 10th.
10. Am so all these people just posting their handle, if you don't have a twitter push or instagram, but we're gon na do um some random selections? Basically, what we're going to do is randomly select people and then we're going to put them in a wheel and then from the wheel. We're going to pick the official winner and then they're going to have five minutes to respond to my dm and if they don't respond, we're going to move on and roll run the wheel again. But if they do respond, i'll, send them a zoom link and we'll get them on talk to them for a little bit, get their history in the markets.
What they plan on using the money for what they're going to be doing this weekend. If they have any questions for me, that type of stuff and then we'll give him the money, that's the plan all going down at 10 a.m. Be there be square, be there or be square if you guys have not seen the intro for today's video that little like two to three minute thing at the start, when we get going um, you guys got ta, go back and watch it uh both my producer And i just finished the stranger things newest season and it's really really good, but we were a little bit inspired by 11 11.. Should we go for 11 000 in profits today. Is that a new goal? 11 000 in profits uh, thus far i've locked in 4.6 000. should that be the goal of the day in in honor of 11, and i don't want to give away any spoilers, but in honor of 11. I almost wonder if we should go for 11k you're still, my favorite youtube stock guy stone 23 you're, my favorite stone. What, if you don't have a twitter? I don't know instagram and if you don't like oh email, i don't know what's the advantage of buying sq.
Instead of shorting t qq uh, well, it depends. Are you doing it through the options market? Because i don't know if, if they're the same leverage rate, if you're buying and like legitimately, shorting, probably going to be the same thing? Oh wait, shoot uh i'll, come back to your question. I just need to get over to this over to this all right. The code should be firing very very soon.
You guys voted down we're going for 500 out of the gate. I'm a little bit nervous order filled order, wait what the fuck! Why does it do this? Why does it jump a little bit like i said we're going for 500. uh? Why does why can't it just be one order? I don't know why it's not just one order. We took three contracts, but that should be about five hundred dollars and we'll double check it uh, but they're all about like 160, but there's three individual contracts ooh.
This is why we probably should have gone to the upside. We would have already gotten the fill already down 700.. Thanks for the vote team, none of you guys like playing reversions on like if we have an extreme sell-off and it could continue for the day, but sometimes there's like a natural, mean reversion. I personally that was very loud ding, any ding ding ding.
That thing that is totally not a casino, is open. You guys really not wanting to play a quick little reversion, but hey, maybe you just know what you're talking about. Maybe you just know what you're talking about what are we doing? I wish i could zoom ooh. This is going against us pretty uh, pretty south there team all right who voted down.
I need names if you voted, it might be a red day, but that's not the question. The question is literally at what do you think it's going to be at open? It's not a question on the day. Hence why every single time i do it, i ask you, like hey, you know this is for market open, not necessarily where we're going on the day. I mean on the day i'm bearish too, but i think it was realistic thing that there would be like some shorts covering and a bit of bounce uh, but we'll see, i still think it's gon na get filled.
I just needed to get filled before we get margin called. Did i run the right code this morning? Uh, i don't know team, you better, not have led me astray. You better not have led me astray on this one yeah, i think you're right. I think you're gon na be right. I just don't want to get margin called first all right so that one's for 300 flat this one's for 200 flat this one's for no that's, not working right, 500, flat, so 200, 300 500 and we're already down 2.68, who voted red at market open mods. I need names, we're going to start we're going to start booting people giving them the old guillotine all right. So obviously, if this hits it's a thousand dollars, two hundred five hundred a thousand - let's see it's gon na be payday friday. I can feel it.
I can feel it all right, so we were down 3k. You guys were screwing with me at market open, but it's all about the good vibes we're just. We need some good vibes come on at least give us a break even a little bit of a break. Even i did sorry barry.
I won't forget this. It's all right, i'm here for you, let's lock in this 1000. Let's do it completely breaking the rules. We were supposed to go for 500..
I don't know what that is. So, even though it just showed this, that's something weird, it didn't actually feel all right. Number one filled order, number two filled, we locked in 500: let's go for number three, let's lock in that 1k 500 locked in two of three locked in. Let's do this thing? Let's do this thing come on, give it to us, give it to us, come on give us a thousand.
Do it do? Do it no down down? Let's not repeat! Yesterday there we go all three locked in one thousand, one thousand: oh fuck, yeah. What a day shrimp can't spell like you can't even count to 10 and i eat crayons every day with my friends, i think about kenny in his ivory tower shaking in these lily bones, as the apes of a power must suck to lose to a monkey. So dumb, but you made your bed and you got nowhere, give us money right here. We got more smoothies than a jumbo juice, probably thought you could have made a cello through hard times money crushed it.
We crushed it. I don't know why. So many people are acting like trading's hard. All you have to do is be of degenerate, as proven many times over here.
Okay, okay, okay, here is what i am looking for, i'm actually looking for a momentary bounce. I would like for the market to bounce strong, and then i would like to create a short into that bounce uh, that's one of my own, like that's what i'm going to trade with my own account uh once again, just looking for a bounce would love a Retest of 3.95 - i don't know if we'll get it, it would be amazing if we touch 400, maybe even a gap. Fill to 401 444 that'd be possible a little bit of a stretch given what's going on, but overall, i'm looking for a bounce to create a short position into that. I can hold for the remainder of the day because i think we're going to be experiencing some pain, docusign massive gap down currently down 23 24 on the day, rdbx redbox, the only green thing on my chart. It now has over 200 short interest, we're seeing tesla fight back we're seeing some various things going on, but overall pretty solid day, thus far pretty solid day just say: i'm sorry moon gang! Well, am i sorry. I expect you guys to be on the ball. I expect profits to be locked in before minute two of the market and that time around it took you guys, four minutes to be right. You're lucky, i don't start docking your pay honestly, like some days, you guys are on the ball and you're getting me.
My fill in minute one, you expect me to wait to minute four. Where do you think i am a person that has unlimited time? I have things to do places to be songs, to play people to make fun of on twitter and in reddit and do other degenerate stuff like what do you think i am made out of time. Come on come on four minutes, four minutes, slacking slacking to say the least, but did you lose? No, you guys were right. You've been right all five days.
Actually, that's why we're doing payday fridays because you guys were right every single day. It works all right. What time 9 39, so we have 20 minutes so payday friday, if you're not yet entered it's easy. Peasy lemon squeezies just come to this video and comment your twitter handle and then we're going to be using a random comment.
Selector and that's how we're going to get to people and then we're going to roll it all in a wheel. So once again, the video is 1 000 giveaway watch before june 10th. Um. That's me in the duck shirt this guy right here bags under his eyes cries a lot in the shower um, allegedly not emotionally available, if you believe people uh but yeah.
So that's how you enter that's how you enter as of right now. I have no positions open, um, no, no, no, none and i'm just waiting waiting waiting waiting like a crouching tiger of sorts, a crouching tiger, patience, patience, patience, patience, i'm looking for a pop. I want a pop, i would love for a pop to happen and that's where i want to create my position: betting against said pop, i'm just trying to get a better entry crypto getting not not the most fun time to be crypto right now i don't even Wan na i haven't looked at my crypto portfolio like the overall crypto value in like a couple weeks now, because i just it's a bloodbath here, we go: here's the pop here's, the old pop, the old pop, the old pop imp. I see some people talking about an imp pop as well all right trading at 88 cents.
It's up seven percent, i mean just a classic energy play: how's the occidental doing uh off it's in the red oil coming down a little bit, it's at 120, 60 a barrel right now: patients, patients, patients, whoa they're, tonto, whoa, they're, tonto shit coins are capitulating. How bad are shit coins, capitulating, um, doge down 3.9 breaking through support, shebe down 3.3 at support? It's not it's! It's a bloodbath today! But hey! It's a it's a green bath, a money-making bath. If you're betting, against things, how low do you think we could go in terms of the spy, this is the next level i'm watching it. Remember me: i play it from level to level to level so the next thing i'm watching is 392 and then from there. I'm watching 388 level, the level and i'm looking potentially for the breakout of 390 560. uh we're in this level right here, i'm looking for the break and maybe a push-up or the breakdown and a fall off it's for me. I'm a simple man. I got ta, keep it like.
I can't get over complicated. I know. Sometimes you guys see all my fancy-schmancy charting and whatnot, but sometimes i just need to keep it simple and just play it basically from level to level to level from level to level to level. I threw up the macd on the one minute, so we had a bullish push a bearish push currently in a bullish.
Push uh i'll be waiting i'll be waiting. Is this? It is that as much of a i would like it to go a little higher. I would love a re-test of 3.95. Is it really gon na give up on us 11 minutes into the day? Oh oxy, getting a little bit of a pop rdbx.
Once again, the only green thing on my chart tesla looking decent, holding up well amazon, not looking the best apple, probably looking just like the spy that makes sense facebook a little bit of a recovery, aka meta, facebook now trades under meta. Just so, everyone knows m-e-t-a uh, so if you type in facebook, it'll bring up meta, but that's the official ticker now m-e-t-a uh, let's see how nvidia is doing in video with a recovery, intraday recovery everything's still in the red, though, because of the gap down pltr Kind of coming back uh. What else do we have target target down on the day? Walmart, okay, home depot, yeah, ah wait come come, come, come hold steady, hold steady, hold, steady, gme. Someone said about to go green.
I like that gme did go green, okay. The second green thing on my chart for the day jimmy redbox, uh green - let's hopefully, let's hope that they can hold green all right. I'm waiting, wait in wait and wait and wait and i'm gon na trade like a tiger today. Okay, all right! What do you guys have as we're? We need to burn 15 more minutes, 15 more minutes, so we give away a thousand dollars someone's saying bbig bbig decent day up 2.5 percent, the spy doing what we want it to do.
Come to us give us a better fill hold steady, hold, steady, rdbx, very strong actually about this. Has a 200 short interest right now, above a 200 short interest. Rdbx's numbers are insane. Do i like the company from a fundamental perspective? No not at all, but if you look at it as an active trade, not an investment in active trade.
This clearly is a powder keg that can explode. I'm late to the party i wish i was in like sub 5., it's trading at 10, so i'm not going to get it. I have no rdbx position. I've never had an rdbx position, but i would like for it to pop. I want it to rip. So a lot of you make money and then maybe i'll get puts on the downside, uh, i'm a big big supporter proponent of rdbx, exploiting the upside. I mean it's on the threshold list, which tells you there's a lot of ftds as in something in the background. Is happening that should not be happening, a 200 short interest, as in all the shares in existence 2x that is currently short against the stock.
It's a low float stock super high cost to borrow a lot a lot going on. That just tells me it's a powder keg and the question is, is: are one of you degenerates or is some wall street degenerate going to be the person who lights the match and throws it onto it? What's the short interest on b, i o r i'll? Look. It up, i don't think it's anything uh. That's that high bior aka prog.
It is 14.8 percent cost, borrow 165 utilization max out kind of a medium float stock, but hasn't really there's been no real, like movement because you can have these numbers. But whenever you look at these metrics that doesn't mean that there's going to be like enthusiasm and overall, like movement like i would use vortex as like a pre-flight checklist. I think that's the best way to think about it, a pre-flight checklist of like okay. It has this, it has this, it has this it's possible now.
Is there going to be enough social sentiment? Is there going to be enough momentum? Is there going to be enough fervor or is there going to be enough fomo just because it has, the checklist doesn't mean it's going to fly and it's not going to fly without the checklist. So you need to start with that pre-flight checklist. But right now bior is a good example of one but like it just doesn't have any volume or momentum right now, so it's probably not going to do anything in the short term. If i win, can i be paid in live ducks? Let's look up how many ducks 1k can buy to kill me.
Let's kill tesla today. If it breaks seven puts, can i get paid in live ducks with your autograph sure how much is a duck? How much is a live duck uh, 10 to 20 dollars? So we'll just take it at 15., so i could give you like. 60 ducks 65 ducks. I suppose that's your option.
Well, there might be some shipping, so let's just call it 50 ducks. So your option is take the thousand dollars or get paid in 50. Ducks all right - this might be our time to shine team. This might be our time to shine time, to shine time, to shine time, to shine time to shine.
Let's hammer the old market order filled order filled all right. I went sh short, the i'm trying it. I gave it its chance to bounce it could keep bouncing and then i'll be screwed. That's like totally totally possible, but i'm just i'm doing the best.
I can doing the best. I can and options okay, so i went to 15 17. june 17th. I'm looking at puts on the spx uh strikes all strikes june 17th. All right, jeez louise. These are expensive, holy cow. When did these things get so expensive seriously? Dude these things are so inflated. Oh, of course i go short and then it pops like that here i am being a a patient, patrick and then the market treats me like this i've.
I have never oh dude. Actually, should we commit to even more of a degenerate thing, more of a degenerate play, i'm trying to figure out how much of a degenerate i want to be. Let's look at june 13th, let's look at june 13th dude. Even those are pricey all right, we're going full on degenerate on this one by four spx puts for monday.
Wait! No! No! No! No! No! That's not what i want haven't placed it quite yet. Here's what i want. Okay, i found my degenerate play. 15 spx puts 20 review, send all right.
It's working, okay. I just made a new position spx puts for monday, and i need to clarify fully degenerate, i'm just trying to have a fun time. Spx puts 3800, which is equivalent to 380 in the spy expiring. On monday, so if the market were to fall today, i'll make a lot of money if the market doesn't fall today, i'll blow up my account, because i use my full account on it.
Full account 3800 puts like that's the strike for monday june 13th and it cost me 465. trade price 470., i'm in at 470., i'm in at 470.. Everyone remember that matt's in at 470., um we'll see how this goes. I put my full options.
Account into spx puts going down on monday and i'm currently short on the nasdaq on the futures market, which is currently up uh, 1. 400. So that's i was waiting for. Basically, i told you guys, i was like hey i'm waiting for a pop and i want to lay a short position into the pop.
So i see this pop, i saw some weakness. I got in right here and we're rocking and we have eight minutes so we're giving away a thousand dollars for payday friday uh the futures market um. I haven't locked in any gains on the options market. Just what i just did was my first trade uh, but on the futures market we locked in some money, i'm feeling good.
Today, i feel like it's gon na go my way. I've had like a streak of bad luck lately, and i feel you know when you have so much bad luck in a row just like, statistically, you have to have good luck soon. Right, i'm in at 474.70 is the premium i paid and i'm currently up. Am i up, i don't even know, i'm i'm up by five cents, so i'm not really up right.
Now, i'm up by 10 cents, i'm up 200 bucks because i got 20 of them up now, i'm break even basically. I definitely need the market to break down on like this attempt, not even like one of these things of like oh well, it could break down later and maybe you're going to be fine. No it it like i needed to break down. No, i definitely needed to break down now. It's just degenerate. It's a degenerate friday. I see that the macd just crossed red. So that's a little bit bearish uh, but it really comes down to.
Is it going to break below 393? I have a target of just below 392. right, we're trading at 393.60 right now. First target is just below 392. right here.
391.89 is my first target red box. Don't sleep on that one! It's a powder keg! It looks like it's blowing up the q's literally just made a new intraday low, the qs, literally literally literally literally, like literally, but also figuratively. If you guys know what i mean, if you guys are picking up what i'm putting down all right first target on the qs is 290 currently trading at 291.95. So now i'm looking for another two dollar drop in the qs and in terms of the spy i'm looking for a drop to just below a dollar a dollar, fifty more so a dollar.
Fifty on the spy two dollars on the queue. That's my personal targets. Am i right? Am i wrong? I don't know amc short interest um. It was 25-ish percent.
We looked at that this morning feel free to rewind a little bit like right before the market open. It's not gon na change too much intraday uh come on. I just need this breakdown. I need this break like full.
Account is on the line options account, that is, the futures. Account is crushing it is it gon na give me the breakdown? Yes or no? I need someone to give me confirmation bias and be like yeah matt, like that's totally gon na happen, like whatever you say, man, whatever you say all right, i'm feeling good and hey. I know how we're gon na get some good karma going in our way. In just under five minutes, i'm giving away a thousand dollars to one of you, cool kids, one of you, cool kids, is about to get a thousand dollars.
Make sure you are dropping your comments, or at least your handle. Can i tie this right here? Would that possibly work? Did i mess my hair up? Did i mess my did? I mess my hair up all right, we're good! I'm feeling good! You better, be feeling good we're. Making money. Hey can 189 of you people do what i pay you to do and hit that like button, please i don't know why you're sleeping on the job! First, you don't get me my thousand dollars until four minutes into the market opens instead of the first minute and then next i realize that we're almost 200 likes below where we should be at market.
I just i don't know you're, just someone's gon na get fired. People are gon na get fired. It's just. I i feel, like i'm running a zoo here, i feel like i'm running a legitimate zoo fix my hair thanks for the call that guy gets a promotion.
Whoever reminded me to fix my hair, he gets a promotion. 100 people are gon na, get fired all right, spy just tapped a new intraday low, so did the qs we i just needed to actually break down. It could easily bounce off of this um. Let me open up this, so i can actually monitor my account. Diggity ding ding ding monitor okay, 470. they're trading at 510 right now. So i'm up on that! Well, i'm not about look at this. What did i say it could easily bounce come on just give us the breakdown give us the breakdown, give the people what they want.
Well, my gains just disappeared very quickly. I have 1 000 existing shares in a stock that i have earned the long-term tax. Then i put additional thousand shares to lower my cost per share that same day. Take out a thousand shares.
Would i lose my long-term tax privilege, no, the long-term tax privilege and remember i'm not a cpa. You got ta talk to like a certified public accountant about this one, but in my history of dealing with it, that original group of a thousand would keep their tax like. It would actually be think of them as two different chunks. That original group would be tax advantage.
The secondary group would not um and you're actually going to see that, depending on your brokerage, sometimes they split it up of, even if you have the exact same stock they'll give it a different like they'll, be like a little note of like okay. This group is actually tax advantage or you've been holding it for over a year. While this group isn't and it'll tell you the number - that's like long-term versus short-term capital gains. That's how i've seen it on the likes of like fidelity, uh.
So just double check on your brokerage: uh, don't wait for the big ones. You can cut the trade. Now i could cut the trade now and then a lot of people would call me a paper-handed bear bitch. Did the cpi numbers come out? Yes, they came out at 8 30, so about an hour and a half ago and they came out very hot inflation was higher than expected and they expected very, very high numbers, all right, quick, quick update.
We are up uh, four grand on the futures market. 3.5. 3.6. 3.7, something like that, depending on where we are, as you can see, it's obviously very, very leveraged, very, very leveraged, we'll see how this goes.
Oh, hang on hang on one second! Well that went away quickly. Now it's two eight two seven! Now it's three patience! Calm cool collected as always uh the spy bouncing right off of this intraday low, also support three 393. It's an important level. Just it might bounce and i'll be screwed, it might break down and i might get lucky uh.
I don't. I don't think anyone has a particular feel ever on if you're gon na get a breakdown or not it's just like hey, let's see how it goes. Oh, my god do you know what time it is ding ding, ding, ding ding. It is pay day friday.
We're doing it we're doing it we're doing it we're doing it. We are giving away a thousand dollars. I'm excited to see how this goes. I feel, like that's a good chunk of change.
I feel like giving away a thousand bucks is a good chunk of change. Let's get rocking all right, let me reload the video um. All the rules of the video were fully explained in here, and people just needed to comment their twitter and instagram handle. So all right. Let me take this and here's what we're gon na do. I found this thing that is a random comment. Selector, that's exactly why i had you guys comment your twitter handle, so i can pick the winner filter out. Duplicate users include replies to comments, uh sure remove winner from last.
Draw yes exclude blacklist users exclude extra entries, filter out comments; okay, so we need to get five people and we're gon na put them on the wheel and then here's the rules of the game. I asked everyone a comment on youtube on rumble. I'm gon na pick people i'm gon na pick five people, then i'm gon na put them all in a wheel. I'm gon na roll the wheel, i'm trying to make it as random in whatever, basically as much as just craziness as i can we're gon na roll.
The wheel, i'm gon na message that person i'm gon na dm them if they have five minutes to respond to me, if they do respond to me, i'm going to get them on a zoom call we're going to chat up and we're going to see. What's going on in their life, if they don't, if they don't respond within five minutes, we roll the wheel again and pick another person and we keep doing that with a five-minute wait period until someone actually picks up and then we could give them the thousand dollars. So, okay, four plus four, that's a tough one, we'll just double check that it is eight get youtube comments. All right! There's quite a few comments.
We're loading the comments. Uh 620 comments: okay, 620, and now, let's do it start raffle and pick random winner start the first one is david jones number one david jones and he is at zero. Five d, j, 0, 5. um sweet all right pick.
Another winner number two is another david david good, david bueno david come on down david bueno at who else else, but all right cool pick another winner. Number three is james: espinoza, james espinoza, okay, at e n d, o wed x e n d, o wed x pick another winner. Number four is who's number four ryan, meltzer, ryan, hello, i'm with some of those other guys, i suppose, know instagram or twitter how's. My spanish thanks for all you do um ryan.
I you didn't play by the rule. I needed you got to give me something to reach out to you. I literally have no way to reach out to you all right ryan. You would have been in the drawing, but i needed - i guess an email or something like that.
We're gon na have to pick another one, follow the rules of the game or make it twitter ryan. That's a tough break, all right master, crafter, taco, slayer, master, crafter doc. Is this the master, crafter taco slayer crafter taco player all right and his name is at leo. His name was dakota all right.
So now we have four. We have four. We have four.