Foreign if you just lost whatever time ahead. foreign show where I'm Matt you're the show and someone else's course. Uh so I wanted to start it a little bit early today just because in about one minute we are going to be getting the retail sales report and I just think that there might be a little volatility in the market due to that. um so I just wanted to stream it with you.

We could listen to the numbers and then, uh, we could go over some other wild stuff before just because we're gonna have some extra time. But good morning, good morning, good morning, good morning, good morning and welcome. I'm very happy you guys could join me. Welcome to the show! Hello hello hello, I Know we're starting a little bit early today, but uh, that's what you get for being here and as you can see, the retail sales pop in the market popping, the market popping lost.

Um, what was that? 360 Points Plus Now you're looking at the Dow indicated up by about 38 points. the S P Futures are up by about 10. it was down by about that much yesterday and then the NASDAQ is indicated up by another 40 points this morning after closing up yesterday. 10-year note has been really interesting after the bank of Japan didn't do anything today when it was expected to maybe raise the band The for its tenure.

You're now looking at the tenure here at 3.459 Steve Leesman standing by Steve Take it away hey uh I have the Uh here, Uh, final demand for goods that you have the goods deflation in there down one point six percent. Uh X Food and energy? Uh, up 0.2 Let me just uh. see here. Final Demand Now that's the main number I have and there's retail sales taking a big hit down one point one percent a tenth worse than expected.

That's the only headline I have right now Becky And that's really the question as to whether or not the consumer. We talked yesterday about the consumer having the wherewithal to spend, but whether or not they do that, we expect uh X Autos being down 0.5 percent. uh, don't have that number just yet. Uh, but better news on inflation.

uh, somewhat worse news on uh, retail sales and I think the story here is we had that strong October uh for the beginning of the holiday season started earlier a lousy November and it looks like now a lousy um uh December as well. we'll see the national retail Federation will put out there Cal of holiday spending later on this morning. The other question of course is whether or not people have moved from Goods into Services That's going to be something to watch. This retail sales report picks up mostly Goods purchases with a little bit of the service side when it comes to eating and drinking establishments.

I'll throw it back to you guys in Davos Stay warm Okay, thank you Steve Thank you very much. We've been watching what's been taking place with the Futures and obviously the market looked at that as I Like it. It's maybe some welcome relief thinking that the FED will be paying attention to those numbers too. Inflation: Not as strong as had been anticipated.

And you're looking at retail sales not as strong either right now. DAV Futures indicated up by about 84 points. We were up at 44 before we got the number. Now you're up by about 86.

there is a new vaccine race. Moderna says that its RSV vaccine is 84 percent effective. We don't need to do that for right now to quickly recap what just happened. We got the retail sales numbers for those of you curious: I already posted on locals, but U.S December Producer prices Final Demand: A drop of 0.5 percent when the consensus was a drop of 0.1 That is being interpreted as positive because remember, when you're fighting inflation, you want demand to come down.

The fact that demand dropped more than expected. Well, that's a positive when you're fighting for inflation. U.S December PPI excluding food and energy plus 0.1 when the consensus was 0.1 So inline and retail sales Advance Uh, December month over month a drop of 1.1 when the expected was a drop of 0.9 So retail sales less than expected. Once again suggesting that demand is less than expected, which is good when you're you.

It's always a game of supply and demand When you're fighting inflation. You could either drop demand, increase Supply or ideally do both when you're battling inflation. So right now, the supply side not moving too much. Uh, whoa, we're seeing this pop.

Oh man, at first this is I guess all an explanation of why. Right when the numbers came out, we saw a bit of a bullish reaction because people were interpreting it as okay. yeah, maybe we're going to be a little less hawkish, but anyway, a big pop up to 400 flat. key psychological level, key technical level in the spy and right there we just saw a dump at 833.

This is another good explanation of why when we see these big reports, it's unless you want to be a degenerate if you want to. Hey, I wish you the best of luck. I've been a degenerate myself I'm most of the time still am a degenerate. but right here, this weird whip to the upside to the downside.

It's just it's so descriptive of the volatility and maybe sometimes that's best just to kind of stand back and just wait to see how it all truly plays out. But a big whip to the upside. Now we're currently seeing a big drop. To the downside: I did something else get reported that I'm missing? Hang on, let me just check on this for you.

Uh, spot gold slightly extends gains after U.S Economic data lasts up 0.8 So GLD is moving. That's the ETF for gold or you could look at GC on the Futures Market moving moving moving it at least 10-year bond yield extends fall after us. PPI data to low since December 13 lasts down 10.3 bips last at uh 3.787 So uh, you have Italy's 10-year bond yield. so the yields are following.

uh Germany's 10-year bond yields down 7.8 So we see a bunch of bond yield going down. So bond prices themselves are going up. Remember, bond prices and yields move inversely of each other and they're always going to move inversely of each other. which is part of the reason for maybe uh, some of you who tuned into my discussion with Mike from TTG yesterday.

Even though it's not fun, it's not like a sexy, exciting trade. We were both bullish on bond prices. Or another way to say that is that we think yields are going to fall. uh, this particular year.

but a lot of whipsaw. I'm seeing a lot of whipsaw and I'm also trying to make sure that there's nothing else being reported. So retail sales X Motor Vehicles All right, let's let that re load, load load hang on. Let me get rid of this.

This is all the stuff that came out this morning. Just so you know, there's more stuff at 9 15 and then we have more stuff at 9 30 when Ballard Uh, now who I believe is a non-voting member. He was a voting member of the FED last year, but I believe for this year he isn't But anyway, he's doing an interview with the Wall Street Journal I Don't know if it's um, like a written interview or a spoken interview, but if it is spoken, we can definitely listen to it. Just so you know, at 10 Am we're going to get more housing stuff.

which I do have some housing stuff I want to talk to you about 3 15 45 minutes before the market closes Harker is speaking and then an hour after the market closes Ms Logan will also be speaking So three fed member discussions today. We already got a big report this morning. literally just came out and that's exactly why you're seeing this volatility to the upside to the downside: Everything I'm seeing in this though. let me read this one more time to make sure it makes sense in my own mind: Producer Price: Final Demand: Lower than expected you have PPI excluding food and energy in line with expectations Retail sales Advanced December month of month lower than expected to me I agree with this bullish push I'm actually a little bit surprised about this downside: liquidity dump that we just saw at 833.

Uh, based on these current numbers, I would be leaning a little bit more bullish. Uh, I have no active position. It's not like I'm trading it, but just to kind of in real time dissect a number with you. In fact, I could actually show it to you.

Um, remember, get on locals, get on locals. get on locals. This is where I post this stuff. Uh, especially where if you don't see it instantaneously, it's just nice to be able to refer to it and see the day and everything.

But these are the numbers. A drop of 0.5 when they was expecting a drop of 0.1 Uh, then you had uh, inline and then finally a drop of 1.1 when the expectation was a drop of 0.9 This is showing less demand, which is exactly what you want to be seeing when you were battling inflation, so just wanted to give. All right now we're even getting this report. Let's see what this what they're saying about all this: wholesale prices fell 0.5 in December much more than expected.

Prices for wholesale goods and services fell sharply in December providing another sign that inflation, while still high, is beginning to ease. Pretty much what I was just explaining. the PPI the Producer Price index, which measures final demand prices across hundreds of categories declined 0.5 for the month according to the Labor Department report that just came out at 8 30 a.m ET they were looking for drop a point one excluding food and energy. the core PPI measure Rose 0.1 matching the estimate.

Um, so Ppi is up. uh which? I actually I was focusing on the retail sales. so I Actually it even slipped my mind that PPI was coming out this morning. but here we are.

Producer price index I was just focusing on retail sales. but anyway, the numbers are either inline or I would argue bullish leaning and that's really because the what it's suggesting of inflation is a little bit more dovish rather than hawkish and at this point in time it's safe to say at just you can't use this generally. But I'm saying for the current situation, it's safer to say that hawkish is bearish and Dovish is bullish once again. I I Kind of say that hesitantly because you can't always use that as a rule of thumb, but this sell-off that we're seeing right here at 833 I do find to be a little bit surprising.

Um, but hey, I do appreciate all of you joining a little early today I Know it was scheduled for nine, but I was like you know what? Let's see what all the Goonies are up to. Let's see what the Goonies are up to. Oh another thing. uh, hang on that I saw this morning that I want to share with you um Taiwan Q4 GDP drop point eight six percent year over year when the estimate was an increase of 1.2 The reason I'm bringing that up and I find like Taiwan's GDP interesting is because we know they are uh, prolific for semiconductors.

Uh, prolific in the creation of semiconductors so that could have some indication. uh for all of you about what's going on in the world of whatever Taiwan semiconductor Nvidia AMD might be a little bit of descriptive of what's going on in the world of those processing chips. So I Still very much like things such as Nvidia AMD the whole sector in the long term, but maybe a little suggestive of getting a little bit hurt in the meantime. Uh, we have some SPF stuff uh, uh.

and then what else are we doing? All right. Let's see what they're saying about dogs. We come back a lot more. right here in Davao Switzerland Markets in the New Year Guggenheim Partners and Walsh is going to join us live from the world Economic Forum in the Alps We're coming right back Guggenheim Partner so Guggenheim uh, they're the reason why Microsoft got a little beat up yesterday.

At least at first they lowered their expectations on Msft and apparently enough people respect Guggenheim and their analysts that when that happened, uh, got a little smacked. uh, what's going on Misty what's going on Nick Seth Good morning, Good morning, Good morning. Who else is in here? Uh, Ultimate Tool, Lemon Curd, Zero Tenshi Rudder Great. North Good morning, Good morning.

Good morning. All right so we can hang out a little bit see what they're saying. Uh, I'm going to kind of wait another 20 minutes to do the normal Market prep just because I Feel a little bit bad that there are probably various people who just expected it to start at nine. so I don't want them to necessarily miss out.

Uh okay, no chat. Gbt is down again. I Was gonna do some AI stuff but I guess here we are here. we are here we are.

What else do we have? Uh, we're going to be going over the news developments with Sam Bakeman Free Miskief might have to go to court because no one is bringing their trash cans from the street. The mail for HOA Someone said HOA yeah did you know that we got 10 things in the mail for HOA uh yeah, we're getting in trouble a lot and to the point where I'm gonna have to go to court. What? Yeah, we. so basically HOA is finding us every single week and we're having problems with them and the reason why we're having problems with them is because we aren't taking the garbages back into the house.

Now that's not my fault because I bought the house and I was I Expect one of us to be able to bring the garbages back in. Yeah no my HOA is really cringe. Like really cringe if you don't bring the H If you don't bring the garbages back in two days they will find you I'm just gonna throw this out here. um.com He is the cringe one in this scenario.

Some look at this I kind of know who mizkiff is I believe he's a large streamer over there on Twitch um I don't really know much about him beyond that, but the incestral world of Twitch where it's like it's it, they are cringe-worthy where it's a bunch of these like 20 older, 20 younger, 30 year olds all like incestually involved in their own each other's lives and like like this. like something about it is weird, right? like he he's sitting there looking how he looks, acting how he does like my prediction is in the future and like I said I don't really know this guy I've seen him a little bit I just know he's big. you know, part of the businesses to track all the others. like just what's going on in the world of streaming.

That's part of what I have to do. My prediction is at some point this guy's career is going to end because it's going to be a scandal I bet that's where I'm throwing out a Hail Mary prediction I bet this guy is up to some that he shouldn't be up to and I bet his career comes crashing down I think there's going to be a massive public backlash I Don't know what it is, but I bet there's gonna be a scandal of him being like a perv or some like that. um just something. You know how some like you just have that like I don't It's almost like your Spidey senses are going off like something just doesn't make sense.

I've always got that Vibe whenever I see any of his clips and I hope I'm wrong because if I'm right, that inherently means someone else was negatively impacted. So this is one of those things in your life that you're like I hope I'm wrong. like I very much want to be wrong on this one, but so like you just something about it. I just get a Vibe I just get a Vibe and I I Don't think it's gonna end well for anyone who's associated with them and like he's just like when you have these adults who are mentally acting like teenagers.

like of that like I can't bring in the garbage. that's weird and I know that's small. uh but whenever I hear anything of him and like this and this crew This Crew this house dude, some something's off. uh I hope I'm wrong I but something very much feels like it's off.

very much feels like it's off. uh. product managers jumping into the figma file to add comments for the designers. Oh I Don't know if you guys have seen this the most disrespectful throw girl basketball team of all time.

Uh, this kind of was making its rounds yesterday. Pretty freaking funny. These kids are like high quality high quality smack talkers and just how they act it is pretty hilarious. It's so funny that they're acting like this in third grade.

This is what eight-year-olds just doing this type of stuff like the smack box. Their coach is already like yeah, get in their head and then end them stuff. It's so funny that they're already acting like this at this age acting like Seth Curry That kid cracks me up. That kid.

just a Smackdown Next Level Next level. Uh, he smacked the saw of him with a can of Twisted Tea for making racist comments. That's something we could watch eight of those times. I'm gonna walk to you I'm gonna walk right to my house for you bro.

Oh God I'm not trying to disrespect you bro. You could tell this guy deserves to get smacked. Hey, are you kidding me? Where are you from? Where are you from? Where the you from? You from here out of your clown oh God you a clown you from here, you're a clown. Is he gonna use the Twisted Tea Oh he was literally saying smack me oh yeah yeah, you got yours Jersey At least he was protected with his mask on.

Let's just say safety above everything else. He had his mascot so like let's just even though he assaulted him. Fun fact: um I Found this out recently because someone in my hometown is now in trouble with the law. so if there's any lawyers in here I'm maybe correct me if I'm wrong.

but uh, if you're gonna smack someone, don't do it with something like so right there he could have hit him, but instead he hit him with a twisted T and like I said I'm not a lawyer I don't speak legalese I'm literally just reporting on a story of my friend who's now probably gonna go to jail. He hit someone at a bar, but he didn't just hit someone at a bar. He had someone at a bar with a glass. and that is the difference between assault and assault with a deadly weapon.

So in this case there is a particular chance that the Twisted Tea can could be assault with a deadly weapon, which I believe is a much more serious charge. So anyone out there if you're about to like start doing something uh, don't do it with an object because it goes from assault to assault with a deadly weapon. So in this case I don't know. like I said, not a lawyer I'm just literally.

uh, all right. So first thing I see is no, you're wrong. Okay, maybe I'm wrong on it I'm not a lawyer I'm just literally repeating a story that my friend is currently going through. but I think it's Twisted Tea Salt cans need to be banned.

uh Seth My hands are deadly weapons too. That's exactly what a left-leaning snowflake would say. So someone's telling me I'm correct I'm just trying guys. If you're about to hit someone, which, you probably shouldn't be hitting people.

but in the case that you do, let's not go to assault with a deadly weapon. Let's just let's just keep the charge at straight up assault. so just throwing that out there to everyone. All right, let's see him.

These people are always on commercial break. Always on commercial break. Um, but I'm on the Twisted tease side. Honestly, uh Twisted Tea I'm on his side.

Saudi Arabia has opened the settling trade in other currencies. Are we going to get off the Petrodollar? The Saudis are pillar. uh, a Petrodollar system established in 1970s that realized on pricing crude exports in U.S currency. They are now literally willing to settle trades in the one Euros, dollars and other currencies.

If societies do this, others will follow. Uh oh, are we doing? Is this? Are we seeing the D dollarization of the world? That does field to kind of be the vibe of everything that wanted like the over the past decade. What is jet engines versus a face? Uh-huh uh-huh This is what happens when you hit yoga class. Too much feels like it was staged but still impressive nonetheless.

I wish I could do a split uh doctor Just respect calls out depressed trolls who use anime profile pictures on Twitter Uh, there's too many depressed people with anime pictures that live and breathe on the internet. uh I wholeheartedly believe that I mean on my Twitter um I've noticed that whenever I get hate I wish I could you know what I should do is kind of make a compilation of all the weird tweets and stuff of people tagging me. Um I'll do that for you and you're gonna notice that there is one thing that is a clear clear Trend and that clear ooh, the Market's making this pop back makes sense. Uh, in fact I don't understand this drop at all at 8 33.

But the pop back makes sense. The clear trend is the people who like want to talk and want to say something negative. They're all nameless, faceless troll accounts like it's not real people at all and that's one of the biggest issues. I think that it exists on Twitter is Twitter is an amalgamation.

For those of you who want your Sat word of the day, it is a mixture of people who are them legitimate selves. It's their real name, it's a real picture. You know who you're dealing with and then Twitter also has a bunch of people who it's their fake names and it's a cartoon picture. or it's this or that.

it's just they're hiding behind the anonymity of not being themselves. And it's those people who are always like trying to talk like it's no one ever real, like it's just. and it's kind of interesting to see that. Um, it's definitely a trend that is uh, high high accuracy.

I mean nine times out of ten when I see someone talking, it's just, uh, like kind of a loser account. That's what it is. It's a fake person. Uh Matt look up the Greta staging her own arrest I saw some things of that I don't know.

Uh I was it posted by Clown World? So Greta Thundberg Uh, the girl who I guess like fights for a better planet was arrested yesterday and then everyone realized that it was 100 staged. Where is it? um if any of you? Oh here it is right here. So this is right before her arrest. 100 stage.

All right, we gotta get ready, get the cameras ready. All this is awkwardly the longest arrest known to man and now and like it was just a big photo op and everyone is lauding her as some sort of like yeah, you're fighting the man uh but she's not it. it's all state so like right here. uh obviously he got arrested actual arrest versus this of like let's just do a photo op type of a thing and it's kind of weird.

like like what the are they going for I I don't understand this. um also I don't know if we should be taking maybe our cues on what we're doing in this world on any major things such as the economy, the climate from a person who's a non-expert and it's really tough to be an expert when you're at her age. um I vehemently would argue that whenever we're making any of these things I Want experts I want the biggest environmental uh, climate nerds to the world leading our decisions on that type of stuff? Not a kid who has no expertise like I mean these are serious things we're talking about. Why are we looking to people without expertise on them? It doesn't make sense.

There's nothing against her I Think whatever I Honestly think that her parents have pushed her into a situation that she doesn't fully comprehend and hey, I hope she can make something good of it I Hope she becomes an expert in it I hope she gets the right degrees I hope she does the right studying I hope she meets the right people I hope she is a net good on the world. Um, but this could be said to so many things. There are so many spokespeople out there that truly have no no expertise whatsoever. What's like why are we looking to kids for anything here at all? Uh, she's trying to save the world.

Hey and I hope she does. I'm just saying like I care more about the opinions of experts than I do a kid when it comes to Serious decisions like I just I do like I Think that's how we should all operate All right. What's going on here? Recruiting corporations Pritzker's Plans for Illinois That are you know that are committing the violent crimes, Those people who are committing shoplifting that are going out 100 people. But if 100 people go in and steal from stores I Understand they should be held accountable.

That's not the suggestion that we're not holding them accountable. The issue is that it's violent criminals that need to be kept without bail because right now if you're wealthy enough, you can simply buy your way out. You're a wealthy drug dealer. You can buy your way out with bail.

Let me ask you this: uh, you look at typically blue States something of California and cities like San Francisco which which are which are losing right now you look at New York which is having a tough time I'm a New Yorker I love New York Uh Chicago All of these are also High tax states and the question is you layer on high taxes plus some of these genuine safety issues and the like and and all of the additional costs. By the way that you need uh to spend to get all these issues fixed and you say yourself, how's it going to get there Well actually, we're running surpluses in the state of Illinois right now and indeed, all right. I Don't particularly, uh, care about that. but what I do care about is showing you guys uh, this right here.

Let's talk about today. Let's talk about how potentially we can make money today. Why did the camera all the sudden switch anyway I Want to show you this then I need to fix the camera right here because we just chopped some things off. But anyway, let's do the seasonal back testing for today.

Today is uh January 18th A Wednesday It happens to be the 11th trading day of the month and of the year. So to properly test today I need to just select the options for the previous day because of the way this always works is if you look at the settings you enter on the next open. So to know how trading day of the month and the year 11 goes I need to select uh, the 10th day and then obviously let's simulate it and let's see what we can expect today. So this is running it on data from 1998 till now.

Um, so uh, it is a bullish day. Profit factor of 1.51 For those of you who haven't heard the terminology profit Factor before, for every dollar you spend, how much can you expect back is the best way to think of it. So if you spend a dollar, you get a dollar, fifty one back. Obviously, if that number goes below one, that means it's a net loss.

If you're spending a dollar and only getting 90 cents back, that's a negative expected uh value. In this case, it's a positive expected value for every dollar you spend trading just today, buying it, open, selling, it closed based on the Futures Market we could track it for the Spy Um, it is a profit factor of 1.51 and over 25 different trades. It has an accuracy of 68. Um, so pretty good.

And here's what the chart looks like. In fact, it was looking good from 2003 all the way up until recently. The first big hit came last year or two years ago. I Can't maybe in the past two years.

Oh, I shouldn't do that. Hang on. let me redo this. Um, but this is what the equity curve looks like.

Buying it open, selling it close on Tdom11 the 11th trading day of the month, and since we're in January It also happens to be the 11th trading day of the year, but this particular day had a very, very nice run from 2003 all the way up to hesitant. I Guess 2021. Um, so it 2021 for whatever reason is the year? Maybe it had two hits in a row? Maybe this is two trades in here. but I Just wanted to point that out to you that if we're looking at today's seasonally, um, I would actually say it does favor the Bulls This is a bull favoring day profit factor of 1.51 accuracy of 68.

And it wasn't just until recently that it looked a little bit wonky over the past two years worth of trading. So just from a seasonal standpoint I Wanted you guys to know where we're at Um on today, but then also remember another thing that I need to show you talking about seasonality is this right here. Let me bring up the screen again. Um, and then if we go to this uh, if we take a little bit of a step back and just pay attention to how things go in January You can look at the S P 500 and I'll zoom in so you can see it a little bit better.

Um, so January from a seasonal perspective. At first it's pretty good the first one third, but then the seasonal push from the first third until the end of the month. It is bearish, so it depends on what time your frame you're talking about. I Just showed you the stats for today Individually leans.

A little bit bullish, but if we're talking about the trend from now until the remainder of the month, it is a little bit bearish leaning. So um, that might have an impact on depending on the time frame of your trade. So I just want to throw that all out there based on the data that we got this morning. I would argue that yeah, I'm leaning a little bit more bullish just because for those of you who are tuning in.

we got retail sales. We got the PPI numbers. They were either in line or actually favored the Bulls. The reports suggest that demand is going lower, which is good when you're fighting inflation.

So when I look at the individual day seasonal Trend that's bullish. With the fact that we also got some bullish leaning numbers, uh, it makes me bullish leaning on the day. Um, but I want to be very specific for the day I wouldn't necessarily be swinging my call options or my long positions in an active trade for like a week or two just because I Know the seasonality from here to the end of the month is bearish leaning. so I guess I'm just throwing things out there for the different time frame traders who, um, are in here right now.

I know we have some day. Traders I know we have some swing Traders I Know we have some investors so I just wanted to give you multiple time frames just so you can feel a little bit more informed on the situation right now, is the market bouncing back? It should be like I said this drop doesn't make much sense to me. the pop makes sense, the recovery makes sense, and right now we've done a pretty good job at going nowhere. I mean in pre-market pretty much where we got to at like 7, 30, 7, 45 this morning is essentially where we're at right now.

If we took a look at it on the daily chart, there's no Gap UPS or Gap Downs to play from today. We still do have an existing gap down to 390 65 or it was a gap up. so we have a downside: Gap filled to 390 65 from Tuesday the 10th to Wednesday the 11th. We also have an upside gaffle to 421.22 back in August of 2022.

Uh, just so everyone knows, so there is still two live Gap plays one to the downside one to the upside. The fact that the downside Gap fill is closer and also the remainder of January from a seasonal perspective is bearish leaning makes me feel like this: Gap will be filled obviously before the 421 one. um I I can't guarantee that, but if we're just playing the odds I think it's a smarter play if you're like okay, what Gap am I going to play right now I would play the 390 65 before I play the 421 but we'll see. we'll see how Wild Things do or don't get so I just wanted to put that all out there for everyone.

The stock market is on the verge of a rare bullish Trifecta that suggests big upside ahead. Now, obviously take this with a grain of salt. Please, please please, because as many analysts are right, you have many that are wrong. U.S stocks could be on the verge of a rare bullish Trifecta that could signal more upside ahead.

To complete the trifecta, the S P 500 needs to generate a positive return in the month of January. We continue to see more positives than negatives and we think 2023 could actually be quite a good year for investors according to this analyst. So we have the Santa Claus rally. Uh, we also have just the Trifecta Hingham training window which consists of the last five training days of the year and the first two trading Days of the New Year.

The second training window is the first five trading days of the year and the third period is the entire month of January. So those are the three periods they look at and they're looking for them to align or not align. So we're in the final one here. the entire month of January They're looking for a this to be the final part of the trifecta.

The S P 500 has completed this Trifecta 31 times since 1950 and usually followed by it was bullish for the market. The average full year S P 500 gain for those 31 years was nearly 18 with a win ratio of 90. So that's an interesting stat. But I Would also like to point out that correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation.

So we're looking for patterns and this just might be one of those ghost patterns that happens by chance because I would argue. From the 1950s till now, most years have been green years. That's what the market does. On average, the market is gaining seven to eight to nine percent per year.

So to me, it's not the most like jaw-droppingly impressive stat point. They're just basically saying, hey, when we put these three random patterns together, it might be indicative, but from the 1950s till now, we've had more than 31 bullish here, so they might have been able to chop out some of those bad years potentially. But I I Just don't find that stat to be like amazing. It's all right, but to me I I would rather get a little bit more specific.

Sock features rise slightly as earnings season continues. Please do not forget we are officially in earnings season and what you could do here is profile likes I will show you the earnings that are coming up. I've noticed that I've started liking stuff because it's the most efficient way for me to return to it. It's almost like My Little Saver Uh, so if I end up liking one of your things, you're gonna have to question yourself.

Be like, does he actually like it or does he just want to come back to it on stream. But hang on. let's go. let's go.

let's go. let's go. let's go. Where is it right here? Um, so before the market opened today Charles Schwab uh PNC So kind of like some personal Banks after the market closed, discover you could pay attention to that one.

uh Thursday A little bit more interesting, especially after close Netflix I'll be paying attention to that PNG that's a good consumer defensive Place Good to pay attention to. Like what is going on with the consumer. So Netflix is probably the last major one of this week and then next week and the week after is where things get really, really interesting. So I Just want to remind everyone that yes, we are in earnings season so especially if you're in those positions individually understand that there might be higher volatility and then if you're just paying attention to the overall Market we'll pay attention to the big players such as Netflix pay attention to meta plays attention to Apple Tesla Microsoft those types of plays.

Um, but anyway, things thus far today uh are pointing a little bit bullish, but we're gonna have to wait for the market open to get that type of confirmation. As of now, the Dow, the S P, and the NASDAQ are all green oil is continuing higher and higher and higher. We watched oil a little bit more specifically yesterday. At one point this morning it was all the way up to 82 a barrel.

So oil continuing to the upside. So very happy with my Oxy investment. We already went over the retail sales the PPI stuff. Just so you know, right when the Market opens, Bullard will be speaking I know I Already touched on this, but for people who are a little bit late to class which we started early today, so it's probably more of your fault than mine obviously bothered a now I'm pretty sure he's a non-voting member he was a voting member last year, but this guy, he's a little bit more hawkish leaning.

Uh, in out of all the FED people, he's a little bit more aggressive when he's talking about like what we have to do. But anyway, he's going to be doing interview with the Wall Street Journal right when the Market opens and then a half hour into that, we're going to be getting an update from the world of Home Building and real estate and all that good jazz. Five things to know before that stock market bill goes dignity Ding ding ding today Wednesday January 18th Goldman Sachs Weighs on the Dow they reported yesterday. unlike Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs really screwed up.

That's a very awkward thing because Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley they're in the same business. They're pretty comparable. Goldman Sachs is like the darling of Wall Street Finance uh Banks And the fact that Morgan Stanley did well. while Goldman Sachs kind of fumbled, the whole situation tells me that people are probably getting fired this week.

United Airlines delivered a strong earnings report. This was my major call out of the week. We already know that American telegraphed their success and then Delta also reported. Uh, these companies are so incredibly similar that as soon as you know how the first one did, you pretty much know the tone of the rest.

So I called out United Airlines to all of you and surprise surprise, they absolutely crushed their earnings. Ukraine's interior Minister dies in a helicopter crash that's not good talked about Goldman talked about United looking good so I still once again United reported Delta reported uh Americans Gonna end up reporting next week and then we also have Southwest And then you can look at smaller airplane companies or airline companies such as uh JetBlue Alaskan those types of players, but it looks like the all the odds are pointing to being bullish on the airline industry for this current reporting season. Uh, Keger Raiders for sale at Twitter They're doing a big auction. They're auctioning off their coffee stuff.

there are they're neon signs so feel free to check that out. Mortgage demand: Rises We're going to be getting into that in one second in Ukraine Interior Minister Dead apparently a helicopter crash which I have to admit seems a little bit Sus Jim Cramer Warns investors not to panic sell reliable stocks. So I don't want to be the bearer of bad news here, but maybe we should be Panic selling our reliable stocks I Mean there's not many trends that I've seen better in this world than doing the inverse Kramer And when he's telling us not to panic sell reliable stocks, makes me feel like he might have prompted. Armageddon So uh, once again, don't shoot the messenger.

I'm just telling you what Kramer said uh I'm not the one who said it. Let's see actually see his reasoning Jim Kramer says gained in tech stocks on Tuesday were part of a counter Trend rally Well that's a little bit opposite of what he said. he always check my glucose. did he just say her parents can always check her glucose I Guess that's good for kids if they have diabetes.

All right. No free ads as a pulse? No a real post after all. Yeah, Text been the weak spot of this market for ages. Today the Dow tumbled 392 points has to be declined 0.2 up and the NASDAQ actually rallied 0.14 percent.

Now that was the seventh positive day in a row, but this time it was actually led by some stocks that had been hurting it. the beleaguer software and semi. that's a good word. They're making a comeback at least today now.

People in flocking to the mighty Dow Been on going with the bluest of Blue Chips while abandoning anything that seems expensive Queen Most attack today though it sure looked like text finally gotten cheap enough to survive even the toughest downgrades. But make no mistake, this is a count of Trend rally. The companies that have reported so far true for the large banks have been superb, even as it was overshadowed today by the disappointment from Goldman Sad it was a bizarre, friendly, hopefully aberrant conference call filled with distractions. Frankly, I think Morgan Stanley up nearly six percent is a bigger deal than Goldman down six percent.

if only because it finally dawned on people that Morgan Stanley has become a repository of wealth management. Not just from Hostage to trading or underwriting more instantly isn't leading the pack of banks, it's leaving the pack behind. which is why it's not getting a higher price during these multiples reward for its more consistent business but ultimately will ing that later. What really matters today is that the decline in the Dow Mass the robust session for some of the more forlorn parts of the NASDAQ and that strength deserves an explanation.

Don't miss a second of Mad Money Uh no, we can miss the second of it for sure. I don't think we're going to be missing out on much Uh Jim Cramer Warns investors not to panic sell reliable stocks after Tuesday's losses. I mean yesterday was a little bit of like a bus day, but not like Pan who would be Panic selling After this, we're on a crazy rip from Friday the 6th until now I don't think anyone's Panic selling after a drop of 0.18 A lot of fear-mongering there. Aramco's Chief warns of possible oil supply shortages as Chinese demand set to Surge Another reason to be bullish on energy, particularly petroleum I'm playing it through Oxy, but there's many, many ways you could play this.

The latest oil market report from the Iea the International Energy agency out Wednesday forecast Global Oil demand will hit a record 101.7 barrels per day this year, with nearly half of that coming from China. The agency expects oil supply growth to slow to 1 million barrels per day in this period. Saudi Aramco pumps about 10 of the world's crude oil supply. Let me paint this scene for you: When demand goes up and Supply goes down, what happens? The price.

It goes up. Also, on top of that, we're in an interesting situation where the risk isn't that high, even if we're wrong, even if we're reading the supply and demand I guess Demand on both sides Like: what is the supply demand? What's the demand demand like? where where are we at with Supply Where are we at with the man? Even if we're interpreting it wrong, the floor is not far away because we know in the U.S The Biden Administration has been treating the Strategic Petroleum reserve the Spr as kind of its political piggy bank. We were going into the midterm election gas prices were high, and we know that that's really awkward for the current party to remain in control if financially people aren't feeling good about the situation. So when gas prices are high because oil is high, what you can do is flood the market, you increase the supply.

And the Biden Administration did that by dipping into the Strategic petroleum. Reserve Unfortunately They dipped into it so much that National Security Experts are saying it's a national security concern. So now that it's so low, it's basically at the point where we know they have to refill it. And the Administration has even said that yeah, whenever it dips below 70, they're gonna be buying more.

Right now, oil has bounced out of the low to mid 70s up to the low 80s, so there's just not much risk. We know that the U.S US government is stepping in to buy if they prices ever get that low. so the risk reward scenario is very favorable to the Bulls because they're simply not that much risk. I Mean the risk in this scenario would just be honestly the administration not purchasing oil.

but I don't think they're ever going to take that route because they very much need the oil so they're going to be buying it on any discount. And in all reality, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up buying it higher than 70 a barrel, especially when things are now really getting awkward. Recent reports from I guess Saudi Arabia or their spokesperson is saying that basically they're going to be helping the rest of the world with d dollarization and they might be settling their oil trades in a currency that is not the USD. You might have heard the Petro dollar before.

Basically, it's the concept that all oil trades are settled in USD Well, all of a sudden it seems like there might be a little bit of about going on for the supremacy of the USD in the world. So this is kind of a story that's developing literally as we speak right now so we're gonna have to see how this one plays out. But overall, it's as simple as this Supply goes down, demand goes up, price has to go up the risk reward in this scenario I would argue is very, very favorable to the Bulls with a little bit of breaking news: Microsoft is laying off 10 000 employees so this was rumored yesterday and it looks like it is now official. Microsoft Said it's letting go of 10 000 employees as the software maker braces for slower Revenue growth The maker of Windows and Office is also taking a 1.2 billion charge tied to lease consolidation and other activities in October Microsoft Called for the slowest quarterly growth since 2016.

I Believe this is about five percent of their employees in all reality I Don't think that this spells Doom for Microsoft Their balance sheet is the definition of a fortress. They're a Goliath Uh, they're They're just too big of a company of anything. Recently when we've seen certain tech companies say they're laying people off, we've seen a positive reaction because the market Collective is basically saying hey, you're doing what you need to to survive this current tumultuous time So we like what's going on. I Actually wouldn't be surprised if this pushes Microsoft stock to the upside.

Uh, just kind of what we've been seeing recently. Mortgage demand jumps nearly 28 in one week as interest rates drop to lowest point in months. So this story, if you've been paying attention to the world of interest rates, mortgage demands real estate in general, you know that over the past really majority of a year 11 months, everything has been going down down. and that's because interest rates have been going up, so there's just simply less demand.

Well, it looks like we might have seen a little bit of a change of tune at least in the past week. So the fact that interest rates are dropping means things are a little bit more affordable. So obviously the demand is returning. Mortgage rates are at the lowest level since September and that is bringing new demand into mortgage.

Market The average contract interest rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgages decreased last week to 6.23 from 6.42 Just so you know, even though it's coming down and we're trending in a more affordable Direction Understand that these numbers are still pretty high, especially relative to what we saw in 2021. applications for mortgage to purchase a home increased 25 percent week to week, but worth 35 percent lower from the same week eight one year ago. So overall the trend in the short term is positive, but if you look at the bigger picture, it's things are still expensive and real estate is still trending in the direction you do not want it to be trending in, especially if you are a seller, so just wanted to bring that all up to you just so you have a better idea of what is or isn't going on. Amazon's Prime Membership program stopped growing in the U.S For the first time ever, this is a big deal and I definitely would love to get your thoughts on Amazon ticker symbol amzn in a comment below because this is just honestly a little while Amazon's Prime Membership may have even.

Fallen Last year, Primes penetration rate in the US is showing signs of slowing. Bezos You know there's issues when they're talking about his penetration rate. The company has been spending heavily on video streaming to attract more Prime subscribers. Amazon's all-important Us: Prime Membership program has ground to a halt new data shows at a time when the online retailer is struggling with a broader slowdown as in running into overall economic headwinds as many companies are right now.

Amazon ended last year with 168 million Prime members in the US down from 170 million at the end of 2021. so a decline of 2 million. but still, the magnitude is massive 168 million. That's the first time ever The company generated no annual Prime growth in its largest market.

Prime Membership has essentially stopped growing in the US after many years of extremely fast growth and then modest growth in the last two or three years according to Cirp. And here's the growth from 2018 to 2022, so a little bit of a decline, but I mean the numbers are still huge. That, coupled with the flattening of Prime Membership growth suggests that Amazon is not attracting as many non-prime members as it is as it has in the past. Excuse me.

This is one of those things. At a certain point, you hit saturation. You just do like it's not like markets have in Unlimited Supply of customers or demand. Eventually you hit saturation.

This might be indicative of that, or it might just be indicative of the fact that people are kind of being a little bit more careful with their checkbook. and they're like I don't really need Prime this year so we'll see. Obviously, it's easy to be a Monday Morning Quarterback It's easy to have hindsight bias. It's always 20 20.

But right now, if I had to guess I still believe that Amazon is a growing company I Like it I Like what's going on I mean it's the world's leading e-commerce play AWS Their cloud computing platform. It's wildly popular. It has over 90 percent of the market share when you're talking about cloud computing. I Think if anything, we're just seeing the fact that yes, right now, we have a Fed engineered headwinds produced for the overall economy to fight inflation.

I Think that's more descriptive of what we're seeing right now rather than like has Amazon truly faltered. But just so you know, Uh, we did get a little bit of a clap back from a spokesperson at Amazon Just because an analyst firm reports something doesn't make it true. Or in fact, and in this case, the research is not accurate. Prime Membership continues to grow as the value members receive continues to increase.

The spokesperson didn't say whether they were talking about U.S membership or Global numbers I Wanted to include that last part because I find it endlessly comedic of how you have all these PR representatives and spokesperson who do a great job at talking but actually saying nothing. So right there, they're like they say something and they're like, well, what do you mean like I can't talk about that So in reality does that comment mean something? It might. it might not. It just sounds like a very, uh, legally groomed PR approved HR I guess stamp of approval type of a deal.

Like yeah, you can say that because you're saying a lot without actually saying anything. But overall, I Wanted to let you know just because Amazon is a staple of E-commerce It's a staple of tech of a little bit of interesting data that maybe could prompt some apprehension. but if you ask me of where we're going in the long term with, Amazon I would still be bullish on it. and I'm specifically bullish on what's going on in its cloud computing sector just because it is so absurdly dominant.

So I just wanted to quickly share the recent drama with Bezos's brainchild and potentially A continuing penetration issue. Let me know your comments below. Expect home prices to fall another 10 in the US and across the world as interest rates stay high top. Economist Kenneth Rogoff says property prices in the U.S and around the world will fall another 10.

The Harvard professor said Central Bank Interest rate hikes are yet to have a full impact on the economy. There's still a lot of downward adjustment in the housing markets globally, not just in the U.S So we've been streaming this whole phenomena of not only the markets exploding, but particularly real estate ripping to the upside. and that was great when the FED fund rate was essentially at zero, but now that the FED has basically said hey, we're going for that terminal rate of five percent as that goes up, that ends up having a trickle-down effect to mortgage rates, among many other things. So mortgage rates basically exploded from three percent to six and a half at one point, just over seven, which is just making homes more expensive.

Or another way to say that is for the same amount of money people are now relative to 2021, buying a lot less of a home. So with that in mind, the question always is is when will things bottom in my humble opinion and I Don't want to just piggyback on Kenneth Rogoff here. But I agree. I Don't think that real estate has bottomed out yet and I Know there's probably people in chat who are far more informed on the world of real estate mortgages demand and all that.

but right now it's more of my thesis that I think the market in the economy is going to have a tough 2023 and I don't think real estate is necessarily going to be something that is saved from that downtrend. I Still think we have a downtrend because we still have inflation. the FED isn't done hiking rates no less, keeping them calm Noah's bringing them back down to normalcy. So I think we just have many other steps to taking the current economic stock market and also real estate cycle before things are more favorable.

So right now I am of the opinion that real estate long-term still a great investment. but if we're talking about short-term I just I Don't see it favoring the Bulls at the current moment in time. And this is more of commentary on the Fed and interest rates which end up trickling down to mortgage rates. but especially if you're in the world, if you're a real estate agent or if you're a property flipper or anything like that, let me know what you're seeing.

I I very much am interested in it. I I Just don't see the pressure being relieved necessarily anytime soon. I Think we might be talking about something closer to 2024 rather than in 2023.. All right, a little bit later, we're going to go on the most recent updates with FTX and Sam Bakeman freed because drama, drama, Drama.

drama. Other than that, let me get ready for the market from a seasonal perspective from a Report perspective and from a technical perspective I am leaning bullish On the day yesterday, AMC had a great gain of almost 20 percent. It's up an additional 4.8 in pre-market right now. The fact that it's above six dollars is exactly why it's on the watch list.

Uh, Tesla is continuing to rip rip, rip. It gains 7.4 percent yesterday and it is now up 4.2 percent. So Tesla making a big bounce off of 101 all the way back up to 137. So I want to be watching that one? Obviously, we'll be watching the overall market and then in the bottom left, we'll kind of switch it out.

just gme had a good day yesterday not doing too much in pre-market um Bed Bath and Beyond somehow gained 13 up and never another another 7.2 Rum has been absolutely ripping lately over the past like week it's up I don't know 60 70 percent. So in the bottom left, we'll be kind of cycling through some things. uh, just so everyone knows what's going on what's going on with Mullen Uh, Mullen dropped 16 yesterday below that 32 level I think Mullen is pretty much done. So at this point I'm trying to think of any of the other major ones people were talking about.

Bbig yesterday gained 17, lost four this morning. Uh, how's Apple doing this morning? slightly up? uh oh United Ual Ual is now up 3.4 like I said, that was my major earnings prediction of the week is United beating and I explained why I Just think between uh Delta and American they kind of telegraphed the success of United and that's exactly why it's up right now. Um, so that was my major call out. And in terms of earnings, the other major thing I'm very much interested in paying attention to this week is Netflix which reports after the market closes tomorrow.

so definitely paying attention to the Netflix numbers. Um, but other than that, we have about two minutes until that Bell goes dingy ding ding ding So with that being said, as always, yes, I'll be here uh day trading doing some stuff I'm working out some of those final Kinks of my system before I fully automate it. Which means like I don't have to check every single trade. Uh, so with that, I will fully be day trading throughout the day today, but my first trade it will not the earliest it'll be is 10 a.m just waiting for that market open volatility churn to kind of die out.

So other than that, the plan of the day is we are going to watch the market open. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, charts you want me to dive into. Questions about options, Questions about Futures Questions about Crypto Any legal advice, relationship advice, nutritional advice I'm here for it I might not be giving you accurate discussion, but I'll definitely be giving you discussion. I am full of hot air so we are ready to rip so we'll be doing that.

There's a couple other things I want to get into we could talk uh, we have some Sam Bakeman freed stuff Uh, we have actually Bullard speaking at 9 30 so I'll see if I can find the Bollard thing Matt I've Gme cover calls expiring this Friday Strike 19. I Do not want these calls to exercise Should I roll them out a week at a time or roll them further I Do Not roll for a loss. Ever. Where do we have Gme? Gme's at 19? So you're out of the money right now.

Um, honestly? I think that one's up to you? Um I really do? Um I I See next week I would be if it were me I would roll them. You might be taking a little bit of a hit on your covered call now just in terms of the premium that you pay, but I roll it a little bit farther out and that would mean that you would take less of a hit. um I I Still like the concept I Think anyone, especially if you're caught bag holding, should all look into the methodology of selling calls doing covered calls against your core position. It helps defray the cost of your position.

That helps lower your average basis. uh, mathematically, not actually like in your account. It won't be shown that way. Um, but with you and what you're doing personally, I Would roll it out farther than a week just so you can collect more premium to help with your current situation.

That's how I would personally do it. Um, hang on. Ballard Uh, Wall Street Journal Ballard Wall Street Journal Dingety ding ding ding. The casino is open all right.

Uh. A conversation with St Louis Feds James Bullard Bullard was an outspoken Advocate last year of rapidly raising interest rates to combat High inflation. he joins Nick The Wall Street Journal Chief Economic Correspondent to discuss his outlook on the economy, inflation, and interest rates. Okay, Is it a video? Is it a video? Is it a video? Is it a video? I Have it up over here.

we'll sign in. Why do I randomly get signed out and also why can't I remember any of my login credentials for all these I know I pay for the Wall Street Journal What the hell is my login? What's weird about it is like I feel like sometimes I get duped because I pay for those like the packages where you get multiple. they're like hey, you could get newer times Wall Street Journal and blah blah blah and then sometimes I'm paying for sign in. What the hell are is it this one? Continue with password.

Well what's my password? Is it duckboy69? Yes it is okay I'm in I'm successfully in I am successfully in and apparently about Wall Street Journal Well, where is Ballard Live Q A 9 30 A.M Okay, here's the live Q A Here we go. We've got a lot of questions I'm going to try to. this is a Fed member Bullard over the next 30 minutes. Um, and so to start.

Jim In the summary of Economic projections released last month, if I did the math right 17 of 19, Uh, policy makers, your colleagues. uh, maybe you said that under the most likely economic scenario, rates would need to rise about five percent. This year, seven of those projections had rates Rising this year above five and a quarter, and two of them had rates topping out above five and a half percent. What was your projection last month? and why? uh, we put in a DOT for the end of 2023 At Uh, five and a quarter, Five and a half percent.

So I guess we're calling it five and three eighths. Um, so uh, that would be slightly higher than the median dot. Uh, although I would caution everyone that these kinds of things are a gas a year from now, we're not, You know exactly sure where the economy will be or where inflation will be. Um, I Guess the underlying judgment on my part is that inflation will probably recede during 2023, but not as fast as it's projected to by uh, financial markets.

They have inflation kind of crashing in 2023. And while I hope that happens and I think they're expressing a lot of confidence in Fed policy, which is great, but uh, the history of core PC inflation is not, is that it? It probably doesn't fall that fast and so we'll probably still have some inflation at the end of the year, so that would imply roughly a percentage Point increase from here in interest rates. Uh, but a number of people are looking at some of the recent declines we've seen in Goods prices and the anticipated disinflation in the rental and the housing market. and they're saying, gee, haven't you done enough? Uh, why not take some time here to see if the impact of all the increases that you did last year? uh, slow the economy down, maybe more than you think? What do you make of that argument that? why not just take? take your breath here and uh, and and see what's going to happen? Well, we moved very rapidly during 2022 and I think that was the appropriate policy.

Uh, We've uh, got the policy rate much higher. Uh, one of the fastest rates of policy change that we've seen since the 1980s. Uh, but uh, it was all very appropriate because we've also seen the level of inflation that we had in the early 1980s, so we had to move very quickly. We're almost into a Zone uh that you could call uh, restrictive.

we're not quite there yet. Uh, if you check out my uh, getting in the Zone speech I gave in in Louisville late last year and updates that I gave in St Louis here. Uh, I guess a week or two ago. Um, uh, you know, yes, we're coming closer, but we're not quite in the zone yet.

and I think he'd probably have to get over five percent to say with a straight face that we've got the right level of the policy rate that will continue to push inflation down during 2023.. we want to guarantee uh to the extent we can that inflation will come down and get back. uh, you know, on us on a steady path toward the two percent Target And we don't want to waiver in that because one of the problems in the 1970s was that inflation kept coming back. Uh, just when you thought you killed it.

So I think the the policy has to, uh, stay on the tighter side. Uh, during 2023 as we're watching this disinflationary process unfold. So Jim just an hour ago, the Commerce Department reported on retail sales. uh and and for December and the so-called control group that feeds into the GDP calculation fell For second straight month, it was down 0.7 percent.

We also saw this morning a bigger decline in the Producer Price index measure of inflation. So when you talk about the need to raise interest rates a little bit more from here, are you talking about? is this essentially an insurance policy Taking out insurance against the risk that, uh, you really don't want to see inflation to move higher? What's the right way to think about this next phase of, you know you ballpark estimate a percentage point in interest rate increas