Bull Trap Initiated (Stock Market Open)
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Stocks, Crypto & Breaking News
The Matt Kohrs Show
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#LiveTrading #Stocks #Crypto #BreakingNews
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
All right. Thank you Foreign. All right. Thank you Oh brother, What's going on? What's going on? What's going on? Yes, hold your applause, hold your applause.
We did get the neon sign to work again. It turns out I just had the light switch off. So sometimes you just need to realize that maybe you weren't dealt a bad hand. Maybe things aren't going against you.
Maybe just you're the problem. And in fact, that's probably going to be the theme of today's show is maybe you're the problem. So I realized late last night early this morning that for this particular scenario I was in fact in the problem. So let's just we'll get that out there.
We'll just get that out there. But yes, this is the Matt core show where your core is I'm at and together were the show and it is Tuesday January 31st the final trading day of the month, which also happens to be the first month of the year. And boy oh boy is in an exciting time. But Matt Why isn't it exciting time? This is the first time I've ever decided to watch a stock show.
Well, you picked a great time to get started because there is insanity coming at us. Pure high octane volatility and chaos. and it mainly relates to the bigwigs at the Federal Reserve the people who decide our monetary policy. Basically, the people that decide are they going to help the economy or go against it? They're coming out with a big decision tomorrow.
And then we also get The unemployment report which comes out at the first Friday of every single month this Friday because it's going to be February So we have two massive macroeconomic reports Wednesday and Friday. Today, we still get other important ones maybe at the not the same in the magnitude of those other ones, but we get the Consumer Confidence Report today. And on top of all that, we're in the middle of earnings season, which basically just tells us how from a financial perspective, how companies did in the most recent fiscal quarter and what they're looking forward to in the next quarter and also most likely for the remainder of the Year. This particular week on Thursday after market close, we get Apple, Amazon and Google.
So three pretty massively important companies, and then Wednesday the day before AKA also known as tomorrow if you believe in the Gregorian calendar or really, even the linear nature of time. but I don't want to get into that so early in the Stream. Anyway, after the market closes tomorrow, we hear from Meta better known as Facebook you know, the artists formerly known as Facebook So we're in the middle of it. We're in the thick of things when it comes to earnings and also macroeconomic reports.
So what does that mean for the market? Well, it means High Volatility. Big swings, massive volatility to the Up website, to the downside not only in individual companies, also the overall Market, but really in the former case, the individual companies, we are seeing big movements. I Mean we know Gns has been going crazy. We know Bed Bath and Beyond has been going crazy just High Volatility To the upside to the downside: we're seeing big big swings. We're seeing craziness right now with the Arbitrage opportunity for AMC and ape people are paying attention to Gme, we're seeing rum still crushing him. even individual I mean Tesla just ripped off faces of The Bear Went From 102 to 180, around 78 dollars and seemingly two weeks craziness. Craziness. Craziness.
Craziness. The best way I Can summarize the market thus far, this calendar year has been pretty bullish. Last year, the overall: Market lost 18 At certain point we were down in excess of 20 which makes it officially a bear. Market But we closed the year out at a loss of 18 so just below an official bear.
Market Closure this year though. It was a little funky at start, but ever since the first Friday of January I believe it was the sixth we've been moving, we've been trending nicely to the upside: higher highs, higher lows I'm not saying this in any way to be a doomsday caller. No one likes a Negative Nancy like that, but I Do want to share my opinion with you that I don't think we're out of the wood chip I Don't think the economy slash Market is ready to go and rip to the High Heavens I Think there's still things we need to take care of, namely inflation which is coming in at over 3x the value of where it should be. We've seen this before.
There were multiple times last calendar year in 2022 where the market got ahead of itself and basically it went this way. The market rips or trips. Everyone's like look at Bear Market canceled time to rip. Economy is good.
the Fed's gonna stop being so hawkish in terms of their monetary policy decisions, and then the FED talks and they're like hey, we don't know why you think everything's great because it's not and you're stupid and then they drop the market. This happened multiple times before even look at the July August period I mean I could show you in a second look at the July and August period of 2022. the market was ripping for a full month I Believe it was from like mid-july to roughly mid-august The market ripped 18 percent and it was clearly putting the car in front of the horse and then the FED comes out and they're like, we don't know why you like what's going on like things suck right now and the Market's like oh yeah, we totally forgot about that So I think we might be in one of those scenarios again. I Think if you're an active Trader day trader swing Trader This should be music to your ears because it means there's large range days.
Which means you can make a lot of money if you're on the right side of the trade. That's why at the start of this I was like I don't want to really be the Doomsday dude because in terms of money making opportunities, you should be really excited about what's going on right now. This is a phenomenal time to make money as an active Trader So I'm personally excited for it because if you get on the right side of a trade, you could ride that all day, all week, all month and you can make buku bucks. So I don't really want this to be taken with some sort of uh I guess negative sentiment because if anything, if you're trying to be that active Trader make money like this is the time to be doing it. So I just wanted to now that we're wrapping up the month uh, halfway through the week, but wrapping up the month, we're in the middle of everything I Wanted to take a step back and kind of let you know my thoughts of the bigger picture things and with that being said, I think it's time that we kind of jump into more of like what's going on today, tomorrow, more of the short-term type of things before we do that though, as things are getting rocking for today. if you guys could please help me out with all the algorithm stuff, drop that like don't forget to subscribe on YouTube helps out the algorithm, gets this promoted to more people and then on. Rumble same thing but a little different, same same but different. Uh, they have a battle leaderboard and basically you just see who communities are.
The best bike you get in, the most likes and the most subs and all that stuff. and probably the most exciting thing currently going on is actually over there on Rumble where we're in kind of the final stretch to get that push to 69 000 subscribers. I reached out to him I asked if I get a special plaque for hitting 69 000. Um, they said no, you're immature.
what are you talking about? This conversation never actually happened, but it did happen in my head. So I think it actually does count, but at least we'll be able to celebrate so we're not going to be getting official recognition from any world leader I asked that, but within here we'll be able to party out a little bit. so don't forget to like, Don't forget to subscribe. It does help and it's the main Ask.
it's the main help that I'm going to ask you all for. All right. With all that being said, let's talk about some of the short-term stuff. So this is the final day of the month, the first month of the year we were talking about Tuesday January 31st the eve of Daddy Pal speaking to Us Tomorrow and the eve eve of some big big earning reports.
This is what I'm talking about. ever since Friday the 6th Right here, the market has been ripping higher highs, higher lows. The Bulls have been in control thus far this calendar year, but remember when I was talking about how there were inappropriate pushes before that ended up getting crushed? Well, that's exactly what we saw from mid-july all the way up until mid-august and then it was on Friday the 26th that we we got reminded that the world is still in a pretty precarious situation, especially the U.S economy and it dumped there and then kept selling off from there so you might Before when I was kind of in my little monologue, you might be thinking all right, like, well, how long can this unrealistic view of the economy last in the market? Well, we kind of have proof of it that it can last for at least a month and it happens and everyone gets excited and everyone's like, look at that, we're great, nothing to worry about and then it gets absolutely clobbered. It ran 18 and then sold off even more. and I just want to throw out a little word of warning that that could be happening again. Now just to check my other side of the bias. what I do want to articulate to all of you is that this recent breakout. This trend line was a massive trendline breakout that we have not seen in a while.
This trend line that you can start from January of 2022 all the way until recently, we just rejection rejection rejection Breakout. rejection, fake out breakout. This time we broke out and it's doing its damnness to hold so that is a little different. I I Would say that actually really is inherently showcasing the strength of the Bulls in the short term, but please do not forget as quickly as tomorrow, depending on what.
Jerome Powell The Chairman of the FED says this could prompt a massive green bar and we keep ripping and we hold the breakout or it could actually smash it so hard that we get back into the wedge. The Fomc decision which comes out at 2 pm. ET and then Jerome Pal, speaking at 2 30 has that much potential impact on the market that we could see a two three, four percent gain or loss of a day in the overall. Market It is truly that important and that's exactly why we have to be here on our toes.
Paying attention because if you're on the right side of it, you're going to be making awesome money and if you're on the wrong side of it, you might be blowing up an account. So right now what I'm looking at I Was talking with some of the people in Discord this morning and we were selling off and early this morning. I Kind of got up around here I was like okay I get it, there's the upside. Gap Bill I Put that on locals and some of you may have played it.
Maybe some of you didn't play it, but I don't know if that was a pretty easy opportunity. Upside: Capital to 428 especially when we're clocking in at 398. unfortunately for those of you who maybe are only trading in normal Market hours, this occurred obviously in pre-market so maybe you didn't take advantage of it. but hey, there's always more trades in the day.
Uh, you can't cry over any spilled milk. but anywho, this push backup is incredibly strong. Uh, just based on the trend yesterday I was like okay, I'm gonna kind of like just chill. Maybe I'll play the Open Range breakout if it breaks to the bottom side I want to do it in Trend maybe I'll be looking for pullbacks into some of those major uh Trend following lines and as it turns over, I'll be able to short it and use the recent swing High as My Risk Point Good risk, good reward Trend Following system That's where I was when I got up this morning. But this push right here now just has me really confused because it's such a strong pushback to the upside that it makes me wonder where in the world are we going like is it? Are we just going to get kind of like a crappy chop day? because maybe the the Bears like used up too much of their capital and power before. So right here. as of this more earlier this morning, I was leaning bearish and I'll show you this on. Also another thing on locals of where I put the seasonality.
today's seasonally, it's kind of neutral, kind of bullish. and I know that's not the most useful information just because it sounds weird. but this is what I mean. So today, historically if you look at today's results a one day hold over the past 25 years, this is the situation you get.
um, excuse me. Training day of the month: 20 trades 25 years. So from 1998 till now, this is the equity curve with the amount of trades on the bottom. So the equity curve of buying it open selling at close.
This particular day over the past 25 years, it did nothing. It was kind of bullish, then kind of bearish, but kind of neutral. And then recently over the past couple trades over the past three to four years it's really been ripping. So I would say it's mainly neutral with a little bit of a bullish bias to close out the month just because it kind of did nothing.
but over the past couple years, it's really, really done well. So the bullwin rate is 56. Obviously, the bear win rate would go at 44 and the profit factor is 2.35 So it did nothing. Nothing, nothing but then just because of the reason.
Success: Over the past three years, every dollar spent has returned two dollars and 35 cents. which is why it's not just neutral I would say neutral favoring the Bulls just based on the recent sentiment. Um, so just wanted to share that with all of you. and if in anything that was actually part of my reasoning of why.
I Like the upside Gap fill. Unfortunately, the upside Gap bill came before the market even opened, so unless you have the right account, you probably weren't able to take advantage of it. Stop Futures fall on Tuesday But S P 500 headed for best January since 2019. Uh, I Feel like they actually wrote this a little bit too early because we're pumping back up now right here.
Stock futures rise slightly as investors evaluate earnings. Get ready for fed decision. Please understand going into big events such as tomorrow and Friday There's usually a little apprehension in the market. People are just they would prefer to be risk off in the situation, wait for the report to come out and react to it instead of predicting the report and I have to admit I kind of like that methodology a little bit better.
so early this morning it was right across the board. Now we're getting a little bit of green. The Dow, the S P, and the Nasdaq all just turn green, but clearly a very interesting pre-market situation. Lots of earnings. so after the market closes today, you get AMD and Snapchat I. Just want to throw that out there in case anyone's making trades on AMD or SnapChat. Uh, but this morning we have Exxon UPS GM Pfizer Caterpillar McDonald's Spotify some other oil plays. We will be talking about those.
So McDonald's profit grows as inflation worry customers flock to its restaurants. So MCD the ticker symbol for McDonald's You might want to be checking that out today, but they beat on their top and bottom line. So earnings per share in Revenue both beat for McDonald's in terms of GM. GM smashes expectations and guides towards a strong 2023 despite margin squeeze.
So some pretty solid numbers Honestly, out of GM, I was surprised their adjusted EPS beat and then also if you look at the revenue, it really be so GM Posting some pretty impressive numbers in terms of UPS UPS Revenue falls short of expectations despite growth in U.S business. So right here they're adjusted earnings per share beat. and then the revenue was actually off by a billion. So they beat on the top line.
missed on the bottom line. So a little bit of a mixed bag scenario there. and that's actually the same results that we saw out of Caterpillar where mixed bags and they beat on wood missed on the other. Just to show this all to you yesterday, no major macroeconomic reports today.
We're going to get some that already just came out at 9am at 9 45 We're going to get the Chicago Business barometer. Don't ask me what that is because I have absolutely no clue. but at 10 Am, this is an important one the Consumer Confidence index. So we're going to be paying attention to that.
At 10, there is going to be a burst of volatility and volume at 10 Am because of the drop of this report. Just so everyone knows, especially for the day Traders out there. And then Wednesday we get the Fomc results and then chair Powell will be speaking at 2 30. Thursday we get the normal jobless claim stuff and then on Friday we get the unemployment report.
So um, in terms of all the earnings, you guys know what's coming up tonight. AMD Snapchat Wednesday After the market close, we get meta Thursday gets really exciting and then in terms of macroeconomic reports for today, we're going to be paying attention I Don't know what this barometer is going to do, so we might as well pay attention at 9 45. But at 10 A.M the Consumer Confidence index will be a in an interesting one at least to pay attention to. Five things to know before that: Bell goes dignity ding ding ding today Tuesday January 31st Let's see how we can close out the month a solid month comes to an end.
Most likely the biggest January gain since 2019. Like a really good month. Global Outlook Improved so in terms of just the global economic situation, obviously things are bouncing off of those massive fear levels, so we're seeing some positivity return. I'm just not sure if I'm gonna buy it yet because not only in the US but on the global situation, inflation is still horrifically bad. Like there's still a lot of restrictive policy that has to play out in the global situation to calm things down. Big beat for GM Yes, I mean they crush it in earnings per share. They absolutely crushed it in their revenue. GM Congrats to anyone who played that deal.
Hungry customers boost McDonald's so we saw MCD McDonald's also crush it us2 and Rona Health Emergency So this one kind of relates to Pfizer which we're going to be talking about a little bit later. It kind of relates to YouTube and their big Tech big brother assholery. I don't know another way to call it like they're kind of douchebags right now I Don't know if I'm allowed to say this word I don't know if I'm allowed to talk about it at all. We're going to be going off on a couple rants about this later, but I just literally shared a viral video and now officially got in trouble with them uh with my channel just because I played a guy who recorded a guy who works at Pfizer explaining like his thoughts and opinions on something and apparently that is now promoting medical misinformation by just reacting to something.
If you ask me, that is a massive violation of free speech I mean I wasn't even talking I was just watching a video and reacting to it and YouTube can go kick rocks those douchebags. but that's where we are. It's kind of a bummer that YouTube is still as of now the Major Video hosting platform, but if you continue to treat people like this I don't see how it's going to last. Obviously we're talking a couple years out in the future, but Alternative Tech is starting to become massively massively popular, so we're going to talk about that a little bit later.
But the tldr on Pfizer it is going down because basically it said hey, we're no longer going to be able to get those Rona bucks in 2023, at least not to the degree that we did in 2022. And the Market's like ah, Shucks So uh, Pfizer PFE is currently down, but we're going to be talking about that one a bit later. All right. So the overall Market I share my thoughts on it I was kind of leaning bearish going in today, kind of going against seasonality, but not too much because it was more neutral than it was bullish.
But this pop I find a little bit disconcerting. so I'm just gonna wait. Uh, yesterday I think that paid off well as to wait, wait for the opportunity. Don't get like too crazy with anything so that's fully my plan for the day.
Uh Tesla Not looking the best in pre-market holding below 165 right now I mean but it did have a crazy push up to 180 early yesterday which is just absolutely phenomenal. You're seeing Apple with a pretty strong bounce back doing the exact same thing as the Spy this morning. Uh, Gns, we talked about this I Know some people are erroneously just trying to hold it and pray this is an active trade if you're not actively trading Gns where you're keeping your risk as like reasonable as you can if you're just kind of like I'm in it and I hope it works I hope it works for you too. but understand that you're like asking to get slaughtered. so Gns, we can pay attention to it. It's a big mover. Bed Bath has been recently also a big mover. Just craziness.
Bed Bath like they're screwing around with the shorts like some people are messing with the shorts. but eventually this comes down because we know Bed Bath is making a B line to bankruptcy I Don't even know if it's going to be acquired. they'll probably sell it off in Parts I Know some of you are fans of Mullen Recently it's been consolidating, so you either have to wait for the breakout to the upside or the breakdown to the bottom side. I'm trying to think of the other popular ones that people have been really, uh, chatting about lately: AMC and Ape Remember right now they're going to move oppositely because of all the recent SEC filings, which I do have an update for you on all of that, but right now it's become an Arbitrage opportunity.
We know that AMC and Ape have the same legal and financial claim to the company, so in a theoretical sense, they should be trading at the exact same value. But right now, AMC closed out yesterday at 501, while 8 closed out at 2 33. which means that there's quite a large parity, like quite a large. Delta is probably the right way to say it.
Like just that: differential is not where what we should be seeing whatsoever. And based on the recent SEC filings and also oh, I don't know I I Wanted to say that the crowd seems to be leaning more towarding yes, but there's some a decent amount of people that are still saying no, they don't want to vote uh, in the affirmative on the vote. So uh, kind of interesting just based on my own. like I don't know anecdotally what I'm seeing.
But anywho, AMC Ape, the question is, should they be merged together? Should it go through a 10 for One reverse stock split right now? If this were to happen, that means AMC and Ape is one of the most clear-cut Arbitrage opportunities ever where you could capture the difference which is roughly two dollars and 75 cents 60 cents depending on where you get into the position which makes that quite a good deal. Like quite a good deal. Um, I'm personally not playing it, but I think it's interesting to talk about just to see which way you guys are leaning, but also more of like trying to just teach something about Arbitrage trading which is a very popular practice within the market so we can kind of examine that throughout the day. Uh, just to see what's going on. But I mean it. It makes sense that Ape is going to be going out. Then it makes sense that AMC is going to go down just because they're at two. they're too far apart.
They they do have the exact same legal and financial claim to the company, so it's kind of, uh, weird that they're trading at such a discrepancy. Um, so we could pay attention to those throughout the day. Let me just see what's going on with Microsoft that one's picking up Tesla oxy uh, we have rum, we have SI we have Gme I just want to make sure how I think gold actually has been Re yeah gold I Wanted to point out this recovering goal actually really crazy so that's pretty much the scene for today. Uh, we are going to get into a little bit of a deeper dive of what's going on with Pfizer project Veritas and YouTube because hey, um, I'm the kind of guy who when you start like poking the bull in the china cabinet which I think is the saying um, let's start smashing some glasses I'm pretty sure that's the saying so I want to get into that I have an update for you on what Wall Street is saying about the AMC a potential merger.
Um, so we're going to be talking about that one and then there's some chat GPT stuff I want to go to? Then we have some tick tocks and videos to react to. That's pretty much the plan for the day, so just get things going. For the first 10 20, 30 minutes, we're going to watch the market open. Uh, more than happy to put up whatever you guys want on the screen.
If there's some high flyers for sure happy to answer any of your questions. Uh, but this is your reminder. Don't forget to hit the like button. Don't forget to hit the Subscribe button if you haven't already if you're not subscribed to the channel I Hope Today is the day I Earn your subscription on both Rumble and YouTube Some People are talking about Carvana.
Carvana. Once again, it's an active trade I Wouldn't think of Carvana any differently than I did Gns Bed Bath and Beyond You get in, what's your risk and you stick to your risk. This is not some random thing that you throw your money into and you're like I hope it works out and then like you go start a campaign on Reddit and Twitter to yell about shorts like that. It's just so silly.
It's an active trade. You get in what is your risk as quickly as you reasonably can move your trailing stop loss up to break. even so the play doesn't cost you any money in the worst case scenario. and you ride the trend as long as you believe the trend is intact.
I Have to say though, from the daily chart, you seem late to the party. The breakout buy was here on Friday the 27th at 7 56. feels pretty Chasey So if you're doing it, maybe day trading is your best opportunity. but if you're trying to be a swing Trader you kind of missed your opportunity.
um I just want to throw that out there to everyone. Throw that out there to everyone. All righty already. Alrighty so we have a little three and a half minutes until that Bell goes dingy ding ding ding. Um, if you have any questions I mean we could do those now. you could post them on locals I Could start a threat on locals if you guys want my bad. maybe before that boat goes ding ding ding I Should go find a tissue. uh, give me 30 seconds.
Foreign sorry I'm just allergic to the cat that I was never allowed to get just the thoughts of the cat or giving me allergies. I'm taking my sub to Rumbo but I will miss my Milestones Been here a little while. Patricia I Mean you could keep it rocking, but if you want to engage in the rumble chat I Truly appreciate it. Been trading a stock ticker SCI for the last few months today at zero volume.
Why would a stock have zero volume play earnings on it? Uh, it's weird to have I mean it technically could have zero volume. How much is a trade on normal normal door average volume only 1.18 million? Uh, shipping? huh? I Don't know. it doesn't I'm looking at all the pre-market though and it doesn't seem like it's ever traded in pre-market like over the past couple days. I'm seeing no pre-market trade so it just doesn't seem to be that popular of a stock.
I Mean the amount of volume commonly is just tied to popularity. A little bit of price as well, but it's just not a popular stock. In terms of the daily on the Spy I Just want to point out right now we're at 401. We have big support at 400.
If 400 doesn't hold, I'm then watching 397 and some change. If 400 does hold, you could look for a retraction up to 403.50 but I would really be watching 405. So these are the major levels. I'll be watching out of the gate and then obviously as we get more information.
I.E As the day starts to really trade, more and more and more I Think we're going to have a better understanding of what kind of day we're gonna be dealt. So we are in the final minute and I would love to remind everyone the best way to make money is to stick exactly to your plan. Your plan should be created before you get in before you have a position you should be like. Okay in this scenario.
I'll be entering at this price with this risk and if it goes my way, this is how I'll be scaling out or this is my profit. Target Whether it's percentage or if you're holding it all day. whatever it is, you have to have an entry plan and an Exit Plan Your exit plan needs to Define What is your risk and also how will you be handling reward? Um, so just want to throw that out there as we are 10 seconds away. Stick to your plan.
A good trade is sticking to your plan, not making money. A bad trade is not sticking to your plan. It has nothing to do with making or losing money. Good trading is your plan.
Stick to it. Dignity. Ding Ding ding. The casino is open.
Best of luck to all. Be safe if not, have fun. Uh, just imagine how much money could be saved if there was no PDT I don't necessarily I mean I want to just arbitrarily believe you? but I haven't seen numbers on it so I can't like quote anything be like oh like and we know that this much money a month would be saved. Uh, it doesn't seem to be like one of those things that anyone's really done a study on. If you've heard of something like that, feel free to share it because I would love to get into it. I Think pattern day trading is like one of the dumbest things. All right. Looks like we have to ban someone already on.
Rumble This morning, dream time gone axed I already sacrificed someone already, no questions asked. just digital Guillotine Gone Gone you talked about AI the other day did you buy AI what do you mean Oh, with Mike the company no, there's other AI plays I would invest in before I invest in AI I just don't know much about it. Nothing bad about AI that company I just don't know about it. There's other plays that I'm much more well informed about that I think have exposure to the world of AI such as Nvidia that I would rather invest in foreign.
All right, All right folks. remember the name of the game today. Calm, Cool. Collected.
Calm. Cool. Collected. All right.
All right. All right. I'm getting some messages about a tweet from last night so La yesterday evening. I Tweeted: just bought an entire dozen eggs.
followed me for more insights into the life of the wealthy. Uh, please understand that that was by no means parody. I Legitimately bought an entire dozen eggs last night moments before tweeting that this is not me trying to show off my wealth for like clout. it's me showing off my true wealth just because I'm that wealthy Like folks.
if you have the numbers in my bank account, you don't just keep that a secret. You go out and you buy a dozen eggs and you let the world know it's not fake. I I could show you a picture of my fridge right now. In fact, in my fridge right now, there's a dozen and a half eggs because the other dozen's not done yet.
So that that's true wealth, there's no difference between me and Saudi oil money. In fact, the only other people in the egg store with me last night were just absolute billionaires. and I'm not talking about little baby billionaires like they have one or two we're talking about Link in excess of 10 billion Like it was. it was a full thing.
It was a full thing. Uh, my kid had two eggs for breakfast. How rich do you feel now? I I Actually can't even say I ate eggs so it feels like your kid is more wealthy than I am. Matt Can you explain what will happen if you don't own Ape? If you only own AMC in the reverse stock split happens.
Uh, pretty much the same situation of if you only own ape. everyone who owns ape or AMC will end up owning AMC. If you own 10 shares of AMC, you're going to end up with one share of AMC at theoretically 10th. The Val Like 10x the value. So if you own like this is the explanation I gave yesterday. It's equivalent to having 10 one dollar bills goes into one ten dollar bill. You have a lot less bills, but at more of a value, you still have ten dollars. So it doesn't matter if you have AMC or ape, it's if there is the vote in the affirmative on this.
it's all going to go towards AMC. So if you have 10 shares of AMC, you're going to end up with one share of AMC at 10x value. If you have 10 shares of Vape, you're going to end up with one share of AMC. If you have 10 shares of Ape and 10 shares of AMC, you're gonna end up with two shares of AMC.
Basically, don't think of AMC and Ape differently. Just look at the total that you have, add them all together and then divide it by 10 and that's what you would get when all the deal is done. But that's not the full story because right away people think oh man, wait, why do I only have a tenth of the shares? Please understand that they're going to be at 10x the value in a theoretical sense. Obviously, we're going to see how the market ends up like reacting to it.
But in a theoretical sense, no value is created or destroyed. No value is created or destroyed in a stock split or a reverse stock split. There are certain psychological implications, and I could argue that there's certain financial implications because of the options Market. But the high level discussion about reverse stock splits or normal stock splits is no value is created or destroyed.
Uh, in a fair World There would be some rich chickens. Yeah, all the the Socialists and capitalists are just like arguing at this point that we should be paying chickens much more. Does that make sense? Uh, Is there any other questions or concerns about the whole like what's gonna happen with my shares on AMC or ape If you own ape, it's going to AMC If you own AMC it's going to AMC Think of it as like almost a new AMC Maybe that helps make more sense. Like if we just didn't call it like if you called it XYZ All all ape all AMC goes to XYZ In this really, really poor example that XYZ happens to be the new AMC at a 10 or 10x the value.
but you're going to have the 10th amount of the shares that you have. So when ape goes into AMC it's a one to one. Yes, ape going into AMC is one to one. So basically think of it as like a simultaneous but also weird two-step process.
You're taking all of Ape and you're shoving it into AMC All of it. And then you're basically dividing the sheriff account by 10 and you're multiplying the price by 10.. So basically all eight goes into AMC and then instantaneously that vote. you can't have only one and not the other.
So it's all going to happen together. All Ape goes into AMC and then it's a ten for One Reverse stock split after the merger. What happens to AMC options? Um, shoot, What's that terminology? Oh, so it's going to become a bunch of non-standard options. So as soon as the merger occurs, all options are going to end up resented. like representing the new scenario, but the ones that are already currently held with Ape and AMC being distinct at the current prices and stuff they can continue like forward. Um, obviously they're not going to be offered after this, but there's also going to be adjustments with it. but um, was. I Think it's a process called being made whole? Uh, hang on.
Uh. I Think that's the term that you're going to want to search. Options Being made whole? Yeah, uh. being made whole means the option contract is modified so that the holders neither negatively nor positively affected by the corporate action.
So basically you get into a situation where you have non-standard options and they become non-standard because you have to go through this process being made whole. So on. Any like the merger situation the reverse stocks but they do the proper like mathematical shift for you so you're not positively or negatively affected. Um, so it's happened before like it's a little bit of a pain in the ass.
I'm not gonna lie to kind of figure out where your numbers are at and all that good stuff. but they're going to do the uh, proper mathematical update for you. It's like AMC one options currently out there. So yeah.
AMC one which is still the basket derivatives. Um so AMC ones are basically the non-standard options that were created from the Ape split off. So there are AMC like non-standard options that were bought and sold prior to what like August I don't know, 18th or whatever in 2022 that are still out there and they're not now because of the process of being made hold. Ever since ape split off, you now have these unique non-standard options.
When is the merger? No one knows when the merger is because first it has to go through a vote and it obviously has to be voted on in the affirmative with majority. Uh, the vote I Want to say is March 14th So in about a month and a half, no one talking about see us fighting team for the reverse split seems like a legit thing. If the rules are followed, what do you mean Newton What do you mean? Whenever there's a stock split or a reverse stock split, you do get a new ID But that means a total of all. like the like, these absolute moronic like on Reddit and Twitter want you to believe that a new ID prompts a short squeeze.
And the interesting thing about it, it's an interesting Theory But it's a theory backed by zero evidence. There is not a singular case of a new stock ID which is so common in the world of stocks Ever prompting a squeeze. ever, Ever zero. No new ID has ever done that.
So is there a new ID Yes, 100. Does that have anything to do with forcing their shorts to cover? Absolutely not. It is such a theory. like Silly Silly Theory It's beyond silly. It's just backed by nothing. It it's a I Shouldn't say it's a a silly Theory It's a great hypothesis. It's something you're allowed to wonder. and then you look into it and then you realize that the theory holds no weight because there's absolutely zero evidence supporting it.
So it's a great hypothesis. I'm a big big fan of anyone checking out any Theory they have. Is it just or a hypothesis like, test it. That's the scientific method.
You have this idea. You check it out and then you realize that there's no evidence supporting it and you say, okay, cool, it's not that and you just move on to the next thing. Uh, what happens if you have just AMC shares? We already answered that AC rewind a little bit but nothing if if you have just tape or if you have just AMC or if you have ape and AMC the same thing happens. in all scenarios they all go into AMC and you have a tenth of the amount of shares at 10x the price your total investment.
Don't think about it in terms of shares that you bought or were given to you or anything like that. Think about it as the total money you put into the play. Don't count your shares up. Think about it as the total money.
You're like I've invested whatever one thousand dollars that's not changing value is not created or destroyed. it's just distributed differently. You still have in a theoretical sense, the same total amount of money. Uh, all right you guys are really talking about AI here.
Hey I'm uh, once again we talked about this with Mike from True trading it's up 17 I Haven't done research into this company I Mean we could do some research live. Maybe after the craziness calms down. It appears to be up 17 today. Uh, let's take a look at its it's been ripping I mean opportunity to get in here was on this breakout.
uh if you're a swing Trader The AI opportunity was like back here. Uh, basically wouldn't put in this higher low and it broke out and you're just risking that and ever since then it's been ripping if you're a little bit. Chasey you could have got in here and went up, came down, fought back. You could have got in at 14 risking 12 but ever since then there hasn't been much of a really an opportunity.
It did get a pretty nice Gap fill. I Must admit I mean we had this Gap fill from August of 2022 that it just filled. Love myself! Some of these Gap fill plays I Just think the odds behind them are really supportive if it keeps ripping the next resistance I would personally be paying attention to and I'm once again saying this with a caveat that I have, um, no position in this whatsoever, just doing some basic technical analysis. If I were in this right now, if I got in at either of these reasonable entries after the Gap fill, my next Target would be somewhere in this 50 Cent region between 1990 and 2050. this would be my next like okay, how's the Bull and Bear like Clans gonna fight it out here? That was to be my next stop on AI All right, All right, All right, how are we looking on the day? how are we looking on the day? Oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother. we have some reports coming out Oh brother oh brother oh brother. Oh do I want to play this open range Breakout Do I want to play the Open Range Breakout Kind of ballsy if you ask me. it's almost 9 45.
almost 9 45. We know 402 is an important. you know it was very much important. Something about it I don't know something about this I don't know if I want to play the upside open range breakout I'm not really seeing too much confirmation.
Uh, let me check the internals. Oh, the internals are actually pretty bullish. Pretty decent opening I don't know I think I would rather I mean if it breaks to the upside, I might just have to miss it. but I'm a little bit biased towards playing the downside: open range breakout if it ever occurs I should probably set up my order.
we'll see. I mean we have a report coming out now I don't know. This is getting a little a little sketchy if you ask me. Are we gonna go to the Upside? Maybe you guys shouldn't do this on report days? Uh okay.
obviously we haven't broken the range yet. We're still within that first 15 minute bar. Um I just don't something. My Spidey senses are tingling about the upside open range of breakout.
It might end up working out, but just seeing the trend I Mean yesterday was kind of a noteworthy red day. Just so you guys know, the 945 report that prompted this volume in this volatility is the Chicago barometer Chicago barometer. And then we have another report at 10 AM which is the Consumer confidence Consumer Confidence Index comes out in a mere 14 minutes. A mere 14 minutes.
let's see how this one's really gonna go. All right waiting. I Have no trade on. Obviously, you're gonna hear it when it says order filled Um, ape not holding on the best today, but actually still wait.
Is it technically green? Yeah, it's up 1.5 we have AMC also not looking the best uh Gme Pop I don't know I'm just seeing some weakness Rum's holding at 10. oxy hopefully can recapture and push above 64. I'm still in Oxy Tesla Turning around. Uh, you might get a little bit of a pop here if Tesla can get back above and hold above 168.
Microsoft Flat pop now. Awkward. Uh, really messy looking day, messy looking day team. Um, who knows all? I can tell you is in a little over 10 minutes there's going to be another pop of volume.
Another pop of volatility because of the Consumer Confidence Index report. This looked like it was about to break and then it got smacked. and then the 945 report came out and it popped. But now it's giving that back.
I'm looking at the market internals. They are neutral but almost bullish. if I look at some of the technicals. The technicals. Actually, on the day, just the intraday session thus far, they are still technically bullish. They are still technically bullish. Interesante in teresante mi amigo. Well, I guess we just wait.
Yeah. I I Mean this might pop right here and rip like it's totally possible but just something about it. I Don't know if I'm the most comfortable I Don't know if I want to how large is this risk? 35 it's 10 points 12 points fit. Do I want to risk 15 points? Um I don't think I'm going to be taking this one team.
It might pop right here. This might be a solid open range. Breakout if you were playing it you would already have that position because obviously the fact that it broke but like I know 402 is resistance. It just feels like asking for trouble.
It very well might play out. I mean honestly it's it actually got really close so it would have already been in and it's it's a If it pushes a little bit more it would have already got its filled. but I I'm not taking it, just wasn't really my plan for the day. Um, just feels like a little bit too dangerous.
A little bit too dangerous if you ask me. So if you played it I mean I hope you crush it. it's close. It's getting close to making money here.
I'll set up an alert of where it would have taken its profits. Uh, it would take its profits right about here. I'm setting up an alert. So for any of you playing the Spy open range breakout strategy uh, you're gonna hear the alert like just off my trading view.
Uh, if it's gonna get filled, it's really close, really close. Once again, I'm not taking it just because I'm not the most comfortable with what I'm seeing feels like I'm getting mixed scenarios which hey, sometimes it'd be that way. Sometimes that's the way the cookie crumbles but it looks like it's about to get its fill. This is looking strong and there.
Okay so technically if you took the Open Range breakout you could have already locked in your profit so it would have been a winning trade and do I wish I took it of course I did. but I also am just seeing some like mixed results right now in terms of the technicals, the internals and I feel like that lowers my odds and even though I'm a little upset that I didn't get those gains right there I mean I probably could have locked in a quick like 150 300 if I played one or uh two contracts which I would love to be up 300 right now. but I would be more pissed off knowing that I was uncomfortable with this situation and if it turned I'm like dude like I you thought it was going to turn. why'd you take the position and then to lose like if I was risking 15 points I'd be risking 1.5 000 and I'm like well that would be just repeating yesterday where I had to play like kind of claw back all day yesterday.
So there's going to be other opportunities throughout the day. Uh, it's okay to miss trades like that one would have been a nice one. It would have got filled. it looks like it's getting smacked right there. I Think people are maybe a little bit apprehensive of the report coming out in nine minutes. Um, so it would have worked. but I'm also actually really happy that I didn't take it because trying to be disciplined, trying to be disciplined. uh man, if Ape does convert to AMC does that stop the ability to continue to dilute the stock with uh, the abolishment of a no because if Ape gets merged back into AMC they can dilute AMC The way they were able to dilute Ape.
That's why they want to push Ape back into AMC is so they can sell more AMC to the public and continue to dilute it. That's part of the vote is like the rights that the board and the leadership team has with Ape. If Ape goes back into AMC. that means they get the rights with AMC.
That's why Apes even a thing is because we didn't allow them to dilute and they're like, okay, well, we want to dilute. So they created a Apes creation had nothing to do with showing synthetic shares. It had nothing to do with really any of the stuff that's discussed on Twitter. It's the management team just wanted to raise more Capital to pay off their debt and make ideally stronger Acquisitions or just strong M A Like they just needed money I Mean they were what? 5.3 billion in debt and they only had 1 billion in like really accessible liquidity.
They just wanted money. They needed money for their business. That's what Ape is. Ape has all to do with showing off synthetic naked shortage shares.
It didn't That was never the purpose and that's only the purpose of it. In the mind of like the weird, nameless faceless accounts on Twitter they created it because they wanted to dilute and now we're in a situation where Ape merging back into AMC gives the leadership team the board the same ability to do with the quote unquote new AMC what they were able to do with Ape. So yes, they will continue to dilute AMC if Ape gets merged back into AMC if it's voted on in the affirmative, it will be diluted to Kingdom come without a debt like Mark this like screenshot this: I'm telling you this right now and it's up to you to decide if the dilution is good or bad. But will the dilution happen Unequivocally, it will happen I Mean listen to Adam Aaron himself.
That's he's told us point blank what he wants to do. That's what he wants to do. foreign. I've already prepared my mind to see AMC Ape to fall off a cliff.
You should be hopeful for the best and prepared for the worst morning. Ube AAA should be hiring FBI to investigate the naked shorts. Yeah, that's one thing. So like that's kind of a completely different subject, but like, it's interesting to me that we're now in a scenario where you have a certain group of CEOs of publicly traded Securities who are actively using their platform and their reach to call out who they perceive to be bad actors. Adam Aaron has done that zero times. that's how many times Adam Aaron has had the retail training communities back when it comes to some of the like con nefarious conspiracies that are being discussed. Um, nothing of like oh, like we're gonna look into it, we're talking to the right people Nothing zero Uh, it blows my mind that people truly think Adam Adam Aaron is on the side of Adam Aaron and that might align with you I'm not saying he's necessarily against you I'm just saying he's for himself and he's also for the long term I Guess success of AMC which has nothing to do with AMC squeezing. So sometimes the people who want AMC to squeeze and what Adam Aaron wants to happen sometimes that's an alignment, but sometimes they're also at opposition to each other.
Adam Aaron is not and has not been and I highly doubt he will be a person who is truly joining the retail movement attempting to make Wall Street a more transparent Fair playing field. That's just not him. He's had no evidence of doing that ever. I Don't know why he would change.
now it just we have seen zero evidence of it. Um, does that make him good or bad I mean it's kind of up to you I think what he's doing is he cares about AMC as a business and he wants it to survive one two three decades from now. He doesn't give a about short squeezes. the entire leadership team sold their stock at elevated values.
they're they're like, okay, cool. We sold, they pocketed money and now they're just sitting there collecting their vesting shares their vested shares as it is awarded to them in their contracts and they're just focusing on like the long-term potential of AMC they don't give a about squeezing um AMC has manipulated or AAA has manipulated AMC more than the shorts. Maybe I guess I would have to think about that one I think he's definitely manipulated hymc I think he what he did with Hymc. it's very much in the gray area I Don't think the SEC will ever come after him, but it's very morally objectionable.
like I don't know if it's illegal like I'm not um, an SCC lawyer or anything like that. but what how the deal with Hm Hymc came to light? how he offered it I mean there's a reason he didn't go on news. Do you guys remember when the Hymc thing was announced and his lawyers told him don't go on the interview like did that not set off anyone's like detector of like oh maybe we shouldn't be in this when his lawyers are telling him to not publicly talk about it like that's nuts. So I assume he covered his ass from a legal standpoint where his lawyers were like don't do it he's like okay, cool I don't want to get in trouble but um in my opinion, very morally objectionable I Don't think it was a good way of getting a lot of money in I Do think that it was a good way of getting a lot of money into Hymc. oh it was. so he got paid off or he got paid. his buddy got paid. Who? Like the connection with Hymc, but you know who got is the retail bag holders who were just stupidly following this dude thinking that everything he touches is great and he's like on our side.
No he's on his side, he's on his like like little crony side. They all made money off of it. Hymc got a huge explosion and value and was able to raise money and people made like they line their pockets. um but once again like you're gonna notice this theme of following suits in the market is they end up winning and then the people who end up getting is the average like Jane and Joe Jane schmoe and joshma who are just following along and they think that this is like their chance at Financial salvation.
Um, you should never ever ever ever ever ever be focusing on some random suit to be your financial savior. You shouldn't you like sometimes it works out people who got in like super early on whatever like Tesla Google like they have like these crazy crazy stories of hyper success and that's great. but if you're like the way people have like religious faith, if you're having Financial faith in just some random other person, you're asking to get severely burned. If you want to know who's gonna make your financial situation better, it's you folks.
It's you. You do. You develop a valuable skill set in whatever industry or pillar of business that you're interested in and you use that skill set, provide value and you get compensated for it. Um, but just to be like I'm gonna bet on this and I just think that there's random face that I've never met in person is gonna Steward my money properly and make me like uber wealthy.
It's not gonna happen, it just is not gonna happen. Um sorry for the Caps didn't mean to be Janet yelling at yes Janet Yellen Uh right here. this is exactly why I was saying I was a little bit iffy of this open range breakout because we were at an important resistance level. Technically you would have got your fill, but you're really dodge a bullet because it got crushed from there.
And the 10 A.m report is coming out right now. the Consumer Confidence Index report. So there was obviously some apprehension into the Consumer Confidence Index Report just came out at 10 A.M Let me see if I can find those results for you should not be far away. Uh, where someone has to have it.
Someone has to have it. I Don't know why they always are hiding the Walter Bloomberg account? Uh, nope does Kirk Gavin have it for Gavin U.S Jan Consumer confidence at 107.1 estimate was 109, so less confidence than expected. Once again, the estimate was 109 and the report came in at 107.1 And that is for the Consumer Confidence Index. We almost tagged a fresh intraday low right there.
at 488 is the current spy low of the day, the upside breakout even though it paid I Kind of said there was a reason I wasn't taking it. So I'm happy I did that because like even if you were like I'm gonna wait for like a couple more cents, you ended up getting crushed. Um, the Consumer Confidence index we popped, we sold. We almost hit the intraday low and now we're popping again. So maybe like a double bottom type of a scenario. Weird day thus far. Let me check in on the internals for you: internals are actually neutral. Leaning bullish.
Neutral. Like, not screamingly bullish, but leaning bullish nonetheless. A lot of chop if you just look at any basic Trend following indicator or anything like that, you are going to see a whole host of chop. Choppity Chop Chop Chop Choppity Chop Chop Chop is apparently the name of the game today name of the game.
I've had no position. My whole goal is to just avoid this absolute messiness. So I'm waiting, waiting waiting waiting. Calm.
Cool. Collected. Calm. Cool.
Collected. Calm Cool collected. That's the name of the game. Uh, where are we at? I do have all my supports and resistances at least for the feature resistance eye.
we're at 4041 I have resistance at 4045 to 4000. Uh, fifty. So we ran up into it, got smacked right off that resistance and if it does get rejected, back down. uh I would then be looking at 4020 as um, kind of the support.
Zone if it is a hard smack at 4050 which is roughly equivalent to just over 402 on the spy and the downside would be a little closer to 400 is where you would like get that Target just to convert these levels over, convert the levels over. All right? Alrighty, Alrighty, alrighty. Aaron Radio ready. and if it does short here though, if it shorts, what's my risk? The only thing I don't like about this is like I do think the bottom is going to get tested here I don't know if it's got actually going to lead to a big sell-off or not.
Uh, really what I'm seeing is thus far today. eventually this might break into an ice Trend but thus far it's been choppy messy. I mean look at this. We popped up.
we sold off. We had a little bit of a bear channel that broke to the upside. then we have a big pot like it's just a messy day thus far and that's okay. it's just you just have to do your best to be able to identify this early on and then you just sit on your hands and you just wait.
You're like all right. Here's where we are. 36 risk up to 50. dude that's a wide risk.
it's just it's been so messy, so choppy that even if you take this is it is it worthwhile. The risk this like it's just not that much of a reward Tesla looks a little drunk, we have a shoulder potential then it comes right back down. makes a new one. If this pops again 169 and turns over, look for the break of 166 because you could have a beautiful shoulder head shoulder set up on Tesla that you should be worried about. um a I shoulder head shoulder just snap the neckline. The next support would be right here at 1840. uh Apple looking exactly like the Spy not much of a differential there. oxy not doing much rum holding ten dollars s i uh gme cracking AMC not doing much ape cracking though AMC's green on the day ape is red.
Interesante interesante. how is this gonna go? What are we doing today? Still no trade for me I mean this is a ugly mess. ugly mess ugly mess ugly mess. uh is a a good guy? Uh I don't know if he's a good guy I don't know if he's a bad guy I think he's just like a capitalist businessman focusing on like his own bank account I don't know if that necessarily makes him bad or good I Wouldn't argue that he's good, but I also I don't know if I've seen anything that's necessarily bad I mean you could Ro argue.
it's a little morally objectionable that he's he's kind of taken advantage of stupid people with some of his rhetorics. Some of his tweets: um, though he he's like kind of doing like a little bit of a a Gaslight situation with his followers. He's taking advantage of people who don't know that much about business or stocks. Um, so that's morally objectionable.
but I don't know if it necessarily makes them bad. Do I know who JB Struble is JB Stribel Are you getting me to say something funny? or is that an actual person? If it's an actual person I don't know who it is, but if it's a joke, like just getting me to say something funny JB Schrible JB Struggle J B Struggle JB Struggle JB I don't think I'm saying anything funny. Maybe though. uh AAA is a selfish guy.
That's why he is the CEO he takes advantage of people. He is a bad guy. Uh, once again, like I think you could be selfish and not bad and like maybe that's more of a philosophical debate of like the difference between the two and whatnot. Um, but it's really hard to become the CEO of like a big company.
It's not a Fortune 500 company, but it's a well-known company. Like you don't get there by playing nice with everyone in the sandbox all the time like it's just that's just the nature of business. Like you have to be kind of that like that type A like hardcore personality. so I don't necessarily knock them with that because that's how he's got into the position where he is in his life Gabe that's a good one I can't I can't stop talking when I'm lying you? okay there? Fuji Uh AMD on a wild ride headed into earnings? Yes so AMD reports after the market closes it.
This is just range bound chop BS No trades for me thus far today. Wait for some nice Trend to develop. We went up. We got crushed.
We went back up like messy messy day. Look remember I was just talking about with Tesla's shoulder head shoulder. If this starts to crack, could be shoulder head shoulder and then you're looking for the confirmation by breaking down below 166 AKA Snapping the neckline. This might be one of the most perfect shoulder head shoulders we've seen in a while. If it plays out this way Jane Becoming a Bop fighter have I ever done a stream high? no I would get way too paranoid. uh I Got notified by Chachi PT four days later that I could use it. When I tried it was full again. Um so one thing I found with that is just quickly keep doing reloads till it lets you in.
like just keep doing a hard reload on your like Chrome page. Here we go: Are we about to get the most perfect Head and Shoulder setup ever? shoulder head shoulder if you went short right now on Tesla you could just risk this recent swing. High if you bought puts or if you went short or if you want to be a bit more conservative you can wait for the snap of the neckline at 166. Oh brother oh brother oh brother.
Order filled. Uh-oh my robot went short. My robot went short. Uh do I like that it did this.
That was kind of a catching a large volatility swing. I Don't know brother. let's see how this one plays out. God Damn oh brother.
that was a little bit wild I felt like it was a little late to the party there. If you're asking me, look at this huge jump then it gets smacked. This is just oh brother I'm not whenever it gets really whippy like this. My personal confidence goes down for sure.
Personal confidence goes down for sure. But to get more specific about Tesla because uh, there is an interesting opportunity is if it snaps this neckline, shoulder, head, shoulder. here's the neckline if it does SNAP You would definitely be looking for a bit of a a bearish continuation. But I would assume that this would happen in lockstep with the Spy cracking the like 401 475 support level.
Uh, my robot just went short on that I think it was because it was such a volume pop, but unfortunately it got me in at the next bar open at 10 10 which was like a horrific fill with a very large risk. So uh, as of now, not the happiest camper in the world, but we'll see how it is, we'll see how it is. Um, so we have that 10 A.m report, the Consumer Confidence index report, and then, uh, were there anything else today? All the major things for the day in terms of macroeconomics has done I think uh, we just need to check rental vacancy came out at 10. Okay, so we're kind of done on the day.
Uh, in terms of macroeconomic reports, but in terms of earnings AMD and Snapchat report after the close
Sheesh your a real degenerate lol got lucky at the end there