Welcome back to the Mad core show! I Hope you had an absolutely fantastic weekend! We're here to talk about stocks, crypto, the economy, and maybe some of the breaking news that you might have missed throughout the day. In all reality, you didn't really miss too much with respect to breaking news because we're currently in the eye of the hurricane. this is the Calm before the storm. so that's what I want to talk about in this episode.

Basically I want to prepare you for the craziness that will most likely be playing out for the remainder of the week. At least we can talk about it now that we have a little bit of a moment to breathe so obviously, buckle up, smash the like button and let's ride foreign Ago I Told you that there really wasn't any breaking news that you missed. but I did find one little interesting thing that I would be willing to wager didn't come across your radar. Missing woman survives on Lollipops and wine for five days stranded in Australian Bushland Obviously I'm happy that the missing woman was found and she survived.

but I don't understand why the author is bragging about her diet. That's literally been my exact diet for the past four years now and there's no articles being written about that, you know, whatever. I don't want to talk about it anymore. I'm just gonna get angry.

What we should be talking about is the infinite money glitch that at some guy Mark was kind enough to share with the rest of the world. This is some warm Buffett level genius. Here's the secret to Passive Income and this is something the banks don't want you to know. When you deposit a thousand dollars in a bank and you're making two percent interest, you're losing money, right? Because if you put five hundred dollars at two different banks, you're doubling your interest.

Think about that. This is what Chris and I have been talking about all week. If you're willing to go a step further, right? because we're talking about passive income here. put a hundred dollars at 10 different banks, you're making twenty percent.

No One Bank is going to give you 20 percent, right? And this is usually where I lose people because they're not willing to do the work up front. But imagine if you put one dollar in a thousand different banks, the kind of returns in the beginning. Wow, here's the secret to passive Income. Absolutely genius.

You know there's certain times in your life when you run into other people that their intellect is so daunting it's scary. and I honestly just feel honored to be able to share one of those with all of you. This is amazing. Speaking of Banks and the Geniuses who run them unless you've been living under a rock, you know that we're literally in the middle of a regional banking crisis and I want to talk about that in this video, but there are other high-level things that are coming down the pipeline this week that very quickly.

I Just think you should know about hello Inflation! On Wednesday of this week, we will be getting the CPI report aka the Consumer Price Index and then on Thursday we will be getting the PPI report aka the Producer Price Index. Also on Thursday we will be getting the jobless claims data and then this will be followed on Friday with the Consumer Sentiment data report. You should also know throughout the week there's going to be a handful of different Fed members speaking and we're also in the last major week of of this earnings season after market closed today, Monday I will personally be paying attention to PayPal Palantir Devon and Lucid Tuesday I'll be paying attention to Airbnb Rivian Oxy and then on Wednesday I'll be looking at ROBLOX Walt Disney and also I want to check out what's going on with Robinhood and then really, the last two raw of this earnings season will come on Thursday where you could pay attention to the names of JD Fiverr and maybe even a little Krispy Kreme donut. As we head into these inflation reports, earning announcements, and also the various Fed speeches I Want you to know how things currently stand before all that chaos? What I really mean by that is the fact that we have about an 87 chance in mid-june the next Fomc meeting of no change in the FED fund rate I Want to get that up there now just so we have something to reference in the future after we get all that information, just to see how things change or really don't change? So are there a lot of Market events, announcements, and reports being dropped this week that could prompt a lot of uncomfortable volatility? Yeah, without a doubt.

but don't you forget, on a moment's notice, we might have another bank blow up. To be fair, as of now, things are quiet a little too quiet. Mid last week things were pretty horrible, but then on Friday Banks popped and early this morning things gapped up a lot in terms of regional Banks and now we're sitting with this situation. Regional Bank Rebound stalls on Monday as Pac West gives back much of its early training games.

If you want my two cents on this situation, I Think that there were a lot of shorts who were riding the whole Regional banking collapse down and down and down. and then there was a bit of a rebound, then they're like, okay, cool time to take my gains and that caused a little bit of a miniature short squeeze to the upside, and then the Longs who were trapped saw the elevated price and we're like, okay, great. this is exit liquidity. So they got out and then the prices came down ever so slightly and now we're kind of coasting in the mid-range Have no doubts about it.

What's going on right now in the banking sector is definitively a crisis on the screen. Now are all the blow-ups in 2008 and 2009? Yeah, you can see the biggest one ever coming in at 307 billion. that was Western Mutual bank. and then from there there was a handful of medium and small.

Banks Recently there haven't been that many blow-ups, but the size of the blops we've had are absolutely massive and there's really no guarantee we're stopping here. Knocking on the door at the moment that I'm filming this video is pack West and then also potentially Western Alliance In my opinion, this isn't a technical play, this isn't a fundamental play if anything. I Think it's best described as a crowd psychology play. And here's what I mean by that.

A lot of these small and medium-sized Banks Their clients are paying attention to what's going on in the stock market. they might hear of it. so they decide to Google it. bring up the stock price and they realize that it's going down and down and down.

and they get worried and they think to themselves, why would I take on this risk? Is the government gonna step in if the bankers could put, where's my deposit going to go? Is my money safe? So instead of taking on that risk, they decide to go to the bank, take their money out, and put it in a larger bank. And then all of a sudden we have a self-fulfilling prophecy. The stock went down, it scared people, so they took their money out. and then we all know that there's reports of The Exodus of deposits.

So then there's legitimate reason for the stock to go down. So it goes further and the more people take their money out and you can see it becomes a vicious cycle that really drives the stock down and down and down. So at this point it's very fair to ask. Is there anything going on that will stop this negative feedback loop in my opinion? No.

Now obviously you're entitled to your own thoughts, your own opinions, and I highly recommend you all do your own research. But I think our government is pretty busy with other things such as the debt limit which we'll be talking about in a second. but right now I don't think anything is really going on that's going to stop this hemorrhaging. Obviously I could be completely wrong, but I truly believe that there is more pain to be had I think there's more things that have to go before we start on that upswing once again.

Obviously I would love to get your thoughts on this specific question in a comment below to better explain my own thought process. I Wanted to share some information with all of you that I found today here are: U.S Bank Deposits over the last year since March 1st of 2023 as in not that long ago, total deposits are down 500 billion dollars. That is billion with a B. This is the biggest two-month drop in history and second place isn't even close.

So now you should be asking yourself Beyond stock prices and Banks going down what's really causing people to take their money out And is there something that could be done that really gets people to be calm and put their money back into Banks So we no longer see this. Exodus if you ask me, I Think the solution to this is pretty simple: I Think banks need to become better businesses. Between Wells Fargo Citibank Chase Bank of America and U.S Bank you can see that interest rates on deposits are comically low. On the other hand, you can look at CDs money markets or even treasury bonds and realize that just for your money sitting there, you can get paid off way way better than you could just being in a Traditional Bank I Love how this Twitter account summarized the whole situation.

This is the real reason why a record one trillion dollars has left. Banks Over the last year, the era of free money for large US Banks is coming to an end. They must raise interest paid on deposits or Capital will continue to lead. So as I alluded to before, I Think they just need to be a better business as in, treat their clients a little bit more appropriately.

JP Morgan Currently has 2.4 trillion in deposits in the US for the entire year of 2022. JP Morgan Paid a 10 billion in interest on these deposits or 0.4 as in 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, Apple's new savings account will pay 4.2 percent in interest to depositors. If JP Morgan were to raise their interest rate paid on deposits to 4.2 percent, their interest expense would rise to 100 billion per year.

Most accounts at JPMorgan and other large banks are paying just 0.01 in interest. How are these? Banks Getting away with this? Well, they got away with it for so long because historically there wasn't much competition and the competition that did exist wasn't well marketed. Your average depositor didn't know that there were other better Financial Alternatives But now we're in the situation that the difference is so Stark and people are getting so worried that they're starting to look around round. And yes, there are better Alternatives Now obviously I have no crystal ball I Can't tell the future, but I Do believe that this entire crisis will permanently end up reshaping the banking sector and specifically the regional banking sector.

On one hand, we have a negative. the bigger banks are absorbing the smaller Banks which means we have less Banks less competition and we're getting closer to oligopoly. On the other hand, I would argue we have a positive: I Think people are waking up to realize how they're being treated and kind of the fragile nature of our banking system in general. So I think they're looking for stronger Alternatives and if enough people demand this from Banks I Think they might be forced to appease the masses in general.

Only time will tell, but the next few weeks are bound to be historic and as scary as it might sound, it's not just because of the bank in crisis, it's also because of the political infighting. and the debt ceiling Yellin warns of economic chaos unless Congress raises the debt ceiling. We've been warned by the Treasury Secretary that as a country, we're apparently going to run out of money as early as June 1st, but ideally the whole debacle should be resolved even earlier. There are now reports that both sides of the aisle both Democrats and Republicans will be meeting as early as Tuesday May 9th to have a talk and see if they can somehow see eye to eye after studying the history related to these types of situations.

I Really think that there's a low likelihood chance of us actually defaulting? if anything? I think one of the sides is going to Cave I Don't know which side, but I Think they're gonna cave to save face and they don't want to deal with the political backlash that this could possibly prompt in the future. So in the meantime, I would wager that there's going to be a lot of fighting back and forth, a lot of finger pointing, but by the time the dust settles I Do believe that one side's gonna cave and we're not gonna end up defaulting. I would put the odds of that situation to be relatively pretty low very quickly while we're on the note of politics, An interesting poll just came out related to both Biden and Trump Biden Trails Trump As his approval rating hits low in a new ABC poll, President Joe Biden's approval slid to a career low in the latest opinion poll from ABC News and the Washington Post that also showed the U.S leader lagging predecessor Donald Trump in early voter preferences for the 2024 election, the percentage of those approving of Biden's performance fell to 36 percent, which is six points lower than in February and a point off his previous low in early 2022.. some 56 percent disapproved of his performance, while 68 regarded Biden at age 80 as too old for another term.

Then, when asked who they would support in 2024, 44 said that they would definitely or probably vote for Trump and on the flip side, 38 percent said they would do the same for Biden. Clearly, we have many months to go until the actual election. So many things could change from now until then, but the initial numbers are not looking so hot for President Biden Half of you listening to this are gonna like me for saying that the other half of you listening to this are gonna hate me for saying that. but I'm not trying to sway you in one way or the other, I'm just trying to share information with you because obviously it could have a huge impact on the economy and thus the stock market.

And last but certainly not least, the closing bell just went dignity ding ding ding and not really much happened in the market. Today the Spy was another inside day and what I mean by that was the high and the low of today's daily bar was within the high and the low of Friday's bar, so not much of a trend day. it was basically Break Even slightly green. Apparently we gained 11 cents, but nothing really going on.

Crypto's been taking a pretty major hit. Bitcoin has gone from 29.8 000 all the way down to 27.4 Ethereum has gone from 2020 to 1832, and then even the meme that everyone's been following lately Pepe getting pretty freaking slaughtered. going from roughly 45 all the way down to 17 right now. gonna drop 61.

Ouch. So over the weekend and today, Crypto got pretty much pummeled, but at least the overall equities Market went sideways. We didn't go up, we didn't go down, just a little bit of a trend to the side. which makes sense because everyone's waiting on all the major reports and the other things that are coming out later this week with respect to tomorrow.

Tuesday May 9th The seasonality of the day does slightly favor the Bears. The Bulls have won the day only 44 of The time. The profit factor is 0.82 and as you can see from the equity curve, it's slightly trending downward. Definitely not the most bearish day we've seen.

But There is a slight bearish connotation to it. With all that being said. I Wish you the best of luck in the markets tomorrow. I Hope you absolutely crush it I Appreciate all the Good Vibes I'll catch in the next video.