Foreign foreign Thank you Oh Brother O Brother Oh brother hello hello hello good morning. Welcome back to Matt Core's Show Live whatever we're calling it Macros Live Show Live at the Mad Core show Live in my studio here I'm happy you could join me I Hope you guys are ready for a pretty crazy Tuesday So yesterday, maybe you slept in. Maybe you thought it was a three-day weekend or something, but it wasn't. In fact, yesterday there was a lot of strangeness going on.

We popped up a little bit and then for a brief three to five minute period the market really fell because there was a fake it is 100 fake and AI generated image of something going boom at a very important government building I Found out yesterday I'm not allowed to say it and the YouTube algorithm Rumble You're allowed to say whatever you want but we found out that um, if you if you name that shape that has five sides which I can't say but I think you guys know what I'm talking about but there's a certain shape out there that has five sides and uh, it's also a building and then from there there's sometimes like you know how like there's like a firework and and then you light it on fire and then eventually it. It goes. well. people thought that one of those happened at the five-sided government building and uh, we talked about it quite a bit because it was fake.

It was 100 fake YouTube Overlords I'm saying it is fake I'm not saying it's real, it was 100 fake, and but at first people didn't know that and there was a 500 billion dollar swing in the market. Like which is just absolutely insane. Absolutely insane. But right away people figured it was fake and the market bounced back up and then everyone all day like it was just chop day.

Basically if you were trading past 11 A.M Good luck because all it was was whipsaw. especially in the overall. Market If you were just degenerately long on Tesla Congratulations to you. It crushed it.

If you were degenerately long on the regional banking sector, congratulations to you. You crush it. If you were degenerately short, an icon Enterprises IEP Congratulations to you. could you crush it? But the overall: Market It was Chop Chop Chop Chop Chop Chop Chop and we're waiting to see what's going to happen there.

a lot of in the U.S We're just waiting on the debt limit and just to know how those negotiations are going. Ted Cruz Was on Squawk Box this morning and he was talking about how he feels this is the closest we've ever legitimately been to a default. but he also did add in that he thinks we're going to get this all figured out and solved. so.

I Don't know. classic politician saying some extreme doomsday stuff but then dialing it back and being like I guess Central about it which I guess is really like classic Ted Cruz it in the overnight session it might be worthwhile to pay attention to what was happening in Japan The Nike actually took a pretty large hit. so pay attention that If you're looking at International markets right now this morning, things are a little bit until if you look at our overall Market in pre-market right now, we are down about a dollar about 0.25 the overall Market down about one dollar in a major level of support obviously. I'm going to show you all this and I'm going to go over seasonality.

I'm going to do a little bit of a breakdown in terms of what earnings to pay attention to, what macroeconomic events to listen to for the remainder of the week, and just some other stories that I found that I think are going to be of interest. But right now the general Vibe of the last week, week and a half are things have popped up. and now the real question is are we going to keep going? Are we going to go sideways or is it time to be like a ball and come back over? For me, my major watches of the day when I'm personally paying attention to today will be yes, the overall. Market Because we're right now as I'm filming this live with all of you at a huge level of support.

So I'm watching that level of support in the low 417s to see if it holds or if it doesn't if it bounces, we might be able to do some sort of day trade call option or if we break down I might settle into a little bit of a medium dated put play on the overall. Market From there I'm watching Tesla we've ripped for five days in a row one two three four, five, five green days in a row. Tesla Tesla Tesla Tesla especially which is crazy. The most recent day, the fifth day after run, was the largest single day game.

So to me, Tesla a company that I like in the long term I think in the short term, it's just gone a little too overextended. Five green days like this is a classic mean reversion play, so I'm paying attention to Tesla and then I'm gonna be Also, just watch what's currently going on with my wall position. Western Alliance Bank it's been bouncing I've had calls on it for about a week now and then IEP icon Enterprises I've had shorts on it I Got into that yesterday during the stream with all of you by the time the market closed yesterday I Cut none of those positions I hold all of them I have 20 puts on it I got in at 1.85 30 strike I'm already in the money I'm looking for a continuation in the breakdown and as the market closed yesterday, they were up just over 100 for the updates on that. Maybe sometimes I make a position during stream and you wonder what I'm doing with it after just because obviously there's more trading hours in the day.

All of that stuff is posted on locals, so if you want to join up with locals, it is been to the top of Chat. It's free. There's a free version. There's a premium version that's ten dollars a month, hundred dollars a year.

Or you could try premium for free by putting in the code Goonie, G-o-n-i-e Macwords.locals.com That's where I share my trades. You can share your trades I give you the seasonality. It's basically just a group of Traders talking about what we love to talk about: degenerately trading IEP going to pay my mortgage for the year Congratulations zero I Love that I love to hear it. Um, I actually have an update there of not only the amount of billions of dollars that Icons lost, but now there's an update in a class action lawsuit against Icon Enterprises So this is very much becoming like a Snowball Effect against IEP and things are looking pretty brutal now.

just to point out, it did kind of quote unquote. save itself yesterday as in it didn't close below its recent low. So I want to do some technical breakdown on Yes IEP we could talk about Tesla we could talk about the overall Market we talk about wall pack W is ripping P-a-c-w pack West on the news that they were able to sell some stuff to Kennedy Wilson I put that in the update video yesterday, so feel free to check that out. but there's a lot going on.

So yesterday, it was kind of a choppy Purgatory from hell I suppose in terms of spy, but in terms of individual equities, there was a lot of opportunity and it feels as if we're going to have that Vibe once again today. maybe certain indices chop, but also I don't know. It feels as if there's a greater chance of some nice trending move. So obviously time will tell.

Uh, fireworks going off at the Octagon What's going on? What's going on? Um, so if you haven't already, folks, I'm trying to think of anything else. Uh, big day for me personally. it's haircut day, so there's a good chance the next time you see me I'll look like a completely different individual. Uh, massive, massive, massive day for me.

Uh, noon o'clock it's scheduled I'm going to my hair doctor and we're going to be chopping them up. So I'm always excited on my haircut day. So if you guys obviously, uh, don't hit me with all your adulations the next time you see me. I'm going to be deeply, deeply, deeply upset.

Um, question question for all of you before we get into. Oh man, the Spy is looking really weak right now this morning. Uh, before we get into all that the update video yesterday, Were you guys not informed about it? Almost like none of you guys watched. Um, so what's the dealio there? Did you guys just not care about AI Crushing the market yesterday as in that AI generated photo or did you not get the notifications? Talk to me.

Help me. Help you help me Help you Help me help you help me Help us. Well I See that some of you watch it, but the people who didn't did you not get it? Did you not care about the thumbnail? I was trying to understand. you should get extensions I should get extensions.

Uh, still don't get notifications. No notifications. but I watch it. Very, very frustrating.

Anyway, we'll figure it all out. Uh, at one of these points. But for the meantime, let's talk about the old stock market and this is what I'm watching right here. Maybe we could put this on the the big screen so you guys can see what's up.

This is the Futures Market Obviously I'm watching the moving averages red, white and blue, the red below the blue so if the white continues to dip with it. Obviously we're getting on this trend for a while. look at red, white and blue. The flag was normal.

We're crushing. It got a little choppy, fought itself back, and then uh oh. Ever since the overnight session, we've just been selling selling sound. Obviously this is on the 30 minute chart.

If you look on the 15 minute chart, it's in fact already crossed and kind of a double whip double whammy for the Bulls, but good for the Bears is we're red, white and blue. But we also broke this trend line. So obviously we have support from the recent low and then I'm going to be watching 4180 Six just this low right here. And if that doesn't hold, I'm looking for another 10 point 15 point sell-off and I think it'll actually come pretty rapidly.

But overall, the market showing some weakness. This morning we're at support though. it could feasibly bounce right off of this. In 20 minutes, the market will be opening.

We're going to be getting some of the PMI numbers at 9 45. We get new home sales at 10 am, so there are some events to pay attention to that maybe get us to bounce out of here. On the other hand, though, if we break down, we might be able to get into a nice little bearish bet here. Tesla's been ripping obviously.

now that the Market's turning. uh, we're giving some of those gains back. Uh IEP Unfortunately, it's already bounced a dollar off of its low from yesterday. More than a dollar a dollar Thirty So I'm very much looking for this one to keep coming down and then wall is actually up point or up 2.5 But what's up even more is Pac West currently up 15 in pre-market ripping up to eight dollars and that is in the update video.

If you're curious, the deal that they struck with I think it's Kennedy Wilson is the name of the company that they have a new basically pack West It de-risks itself and it was able to raise some cash. So things are looking good right now for Pacwest of maybe not going completely kaput. So those are like the Tldr breakdown, but let's really get into it. What is this: Apple Announces multi-billion dollar deal with Broadband for U.S Made Ships What? Apple announces multi-billion dollar deal with Broadcom for U.S Made ships Interesting.

That is going to be a little bit of a mover, especially for Bodcom. anyway. stock feature Slip has Wall Street watches debt ceiling progress. So everyone and their mother is talking about this in the political sphere right now and everyone's pointing fingers at the other person if you ask me right now.

I as I always have wholeheartedly believe we will not default I Just don't see it happening I Think there's too much of a political risk for both sides to not come to some sort of a deal, but right now in terms of Leverage Speaker McCarthy of the House Leader of the House Kevin McCarthy he has the leverage I Think what's going to happen here is basically Biden is going to just realize he's not in the best chess match position right now and he's going to concede them things. He's not going to concede everything. That's the nature of compromise. That's what really goes on in our political gridlock.

But what's going to happen is this is going to definitely favor the Republicans because they have all of the leverage right now. not only in terms of how quickly they put the bill through the house before just to show numbers and strength, but on top of it the fact that they are not currently the dominant party. Obviously, the Democrats have more to lose if we go into an election year and they are, they cause it to default, which will come with just like pure chaos like it's not gonna, there's gonna be a lot of a financial follow-up The Democrats are going to get blamed. They know it.

They don't want that to happen. So yada yada yada. I Truly, truly, truly believe we will not default. I Think what's going to happen is that Biden and his team, his administration is going to end up conceding some major points that they don't want to concede now.

I Just want you to know in terms of today individually, just from a seasonal standpoint. it's leaning bearish, but it's kind of neutral. Uh, the very first couple years we sold off, and since then it's been choppy. So from a seasonal perspective yesterday it was neutral leaning bullish.

This one's neutral leaning bearish. But then Wednesday Thursday Friday from a seasonal perspective are all actually pretty bullish and I covered that yesterday. If you guys have any questions about the whole trading day of the month, trading day of the year, when do you get in? When do you get out the software that I use any of that stuff? More than happy to talk about it. We can really discuss that stuff right after the Market opens, but there's a very strong bullish seasonal trade that you would get into either when the market closes today or when the Market opens tomorrow and you would hold it for two days, or you look for the first profitable close and then get out on the very next open.

But once again, if you have any questions on that, I'm more than happy to talk about it with all of you. As of now, the Dow, the S P, and the NASDAQ are all kind of red, with the S P being at a key level of support. We have oil popping up because of some pretty strong discussions and statements from OPEC. I'll be going over all that, and yields are actually going up too.

so yields, 30-year yields are actually hitting some recent highs. so strength there. so those bonds actually coming down ever so slightly. The big thing of the day? the big thing.

and let me get this all up: Biden McCarthy That talk ends with optimism, but without a deal. This whole without a deal thing. Especially now that we have various people here confirming. Let me find this for you.

Where are we Treasury confirms U.S default as early as June 1st without debt ceiling height So everyone's like wow, they're looking at their calendar and they're like we are not that far away team like. we're actually kind of pretty freaking close. So uh, what's going on? So the Treasury confirming we're gonna have no money and even though there's some optimism there, we still don't have a deal. But this is kind of what happened yesterday.

We would get like some statements of hey, like we're tracking in the right way and then the very next statement would be like, but maybe we're not like it's just whipsaw uh, what was what was the term I used in the update video yesterday? uh, a teeter-totter from hell. That's all we're doing is like we feel good and then they cut us out by the knees and then we feel good And it's just like the back and forth and it's literally being represented in the price, action, the market. It's just sideways shop. As this has been the going vibe pretty much all calendar of the year, we are violently going nowhere.

Uh, so on an intraday basis it's extraordinarily difficult because you can get whipped out of your position. But then if you're looking at the daily Church you're like wow, we've done like a lot of nothing so crazy stuff. And I guess as I always preach to you folks, it's risk management that's the best way to protect you in these types Of scenarios is absolutely you need to be a like monk level discipline with your risk management in these environments. I Felt we had a productive uh discussion last night yet but I did feel the discussion was productive in areas that we have differences of opinion.

Uh, we're gonna have the staffs continue to get back together and work on base. Some of the things that we had talked about worried about what could happen to their jobs, their savings and so forth to Americans need to get ready for that No, No no no no because the Republicans had passed a bill that raised the debt scene that's sitting in the Senate You always have the ability to move that there's always opportunities. Two questions: One, how would you describe the tone of the conversation tonight between you and the president? I think the tone tonight was better than any other time we've had discussions. I'll have chairman Patrick McHenry come up and talk a little bit about as well but I felt it was productive because look we both know we've walked through this for a long time where our differences we're explaining them we're we're giving a give and take of what we think would be best for moving the country forward.

We still will have some philosophical differences, but I felt it was productive in that manner in the manner which we produced. and I think we were able to really focus on the areas. This difference hold it productive. but are you confident that you can get a deal with enough time left to prevent Americans from feeling the economic look? The thing I want to tell America I never wanted to be here Oh America I never I Do not like the idea that you govern by chaos.

You governed by a deadline. So all the way back in January I requested meetings with the president after I won speaker only on this issue. We always knew this issue was coming. February 1st I Got that meeting and I sat with the president I told him Mr President we should work together to find where we could have common ground to raise the debt ceiling but curve our spending so we stop doing this and I told the president there's only two things not going to raise taxes and we're not going to pass a clean debt soon.

But for 97 days he said he wouldn't meet with me. And now what the Republicans went and did. in the house, we passed a bill that raised the debt ceiling, saved his money, put us on a trajectory where we could go to balance. This was long before Secretary Yellin told us the deadline because we don't want to govern that one.

Unfortunately, denying our ability to meet put us in this situation: I Believe we can still get there I believe I believe we can get it done I always I've watched as work before I think from this discussion he knows where we are. We had greater explanation of he had to be at G7 Why our staffs were meeting. we were able to explain where uh, some positions they have I think that was a better explanation for both sides. Wowzer Uh and why I'm saying that is because of what's happening right now.

the Spy just got rocked a little bit more. Here's the Futures Market just getting sliced up So obviously we came to this recent low. the low of when the market opened on Sunday We're bouncing off of that right now. uh for a clear level for Clear reason this is a very important level.

Uh, we're bouncing as of now. but if this gives way I'm like I said I think we see another 15 point sell-off in the Futures Market which would be about like two dollars in the Spy. oh man oh man oh man it's gonna be a day folks. you better buckle up.

It's gonna be a day and a half. All right. Well, as you could imagine, every politician is doing their their form of a I suppose a media tour right now sharing their opinions on what's going on with the debt ceiling right here. Moving closer on debt deal as talks drag on so no one wants to be the person who's like nope, it's not gonna happen and in reality that's good because we don't want more fear and on top of it I Just don't think it's accurate.

I Think all politicians know that eventually someone will concede. And right now, just sometimes in certain political situations, when you're in a chess match, sometimes you're in good positioning, sometimes you're in bad positioning. And for this, the Republicans are in good positioning, the Democrats are in bad positioning. but as things are being debated and I guess compromised on and conceded and blah blah blah, it's us, the people in the middle, just the average people in the U.S who like have to kind of just like live through this hell.

and I don't know. It's kind of sad that that is really the way things work out because we just it feels like we just have grown children arguing back and forth when they can't figure it out even though it's literally their job and they could have figured it out weeks if not months ago. 793 billion fund is betting on rerun of U.S Debt drama. that's a lot of Dinero U.S Politicians hold talks to avoid a historic debt default.

Pgim Fixed Income has spotted an opportunity to bet on the next. Crisis Greg Peters The firm's co-chief investment officer has bought long-dated credit default swaps. You've probably heard that before because of the long short. That's what they all had: a default swap.

These credit default swaps is basically they pay off big if a certain event happens and obviously here especially which was made very, very popular by the movie The Big Short So that was mortgage like. They had default swaps too. And basically when that all blew up, that's when that insurance ended up paying off. So you're looking for a particular event to actually pay off.

and that's when these swaps would hit pretty big. So if there's a massive massive credit default, that's when these ones would pay just for I Guess like specific, uh, updates on this one. but anyway. uh, these default swaps on the basis that the US will find itself in a similar impasse all over again.

Some investors are betting on short, dated treasury bills given dislocations in the market around the potential X date. but Peter says who? Those wages simply aren't worth it for his fund, just basically too much money. uh, too large to pull that off. Instead, he's focusing on Uscds curve.

The Uscds curve is highly inverted, which means people are paying up for default protection in the near term. We went out to the curve somewhat as our speak. Sneaky suspicion is that it will continue year after year. The Congressional disruption in DC is not going away anytime soon, and you can kind of see it here.

Uh, it here. I'll make that a little bit bigger so it's more apparent. The thesis, to me is somewhat reasonable if you're basically betting on the continuation in political chaos. Yeah, I I can kind of buy that? I mean I've never traded a 700 and what was it? 93 million dollar account so it's not particularly my play and they are playing it out for some time.

but I just thought it was interesting or not. million Excuse me, billion? We're talking almost a trillion. My point is, this is serious money. Serious research and due diligence on their part.

and I just want to let you know where some of the big money is going of. They're saying over the next couple years they're clearly looking at a potentially chaotic environment. Now are they going to be right? I Have no idea. Big money betters.

they get things wrong. and actually we're going to be talking about one of them by the name of Carl Icahn who's just lost billions and billions and billions and billions of dollars. But yeah, craziness can obviously happen Jamie Dimon warns: uh, souring commercial real estate loans could threaten some banks So Jamie Diamond's been talking about it. We see some Regional Banks talking about it.

We see Morgan Stanley Kind of throwing up a warning sign, but right now, commercial real estate, corporate real estate. a lot of the people within the financial sector are looking at it with kind of some raised eyebrows. Suspicion is going up that that sector could be seriously seriously hit. Now the fact that so many people are telling you about it and talking about it, yeah, maybe it's something that should be thought about, maybe something that you do or don't want to trade on.

but also I do want to throw out there that when a lot of the times I feel when there's everyone is in agreement on something I feel like the market makes that whole group pay and the exact opposite happens. So for me I have no active play on the commercial real estate sector. but I do want to let you know that a lot of people within the like um I guess financial sector Community They've been calling out the commercial real estate situation for a while and it's not looking good, but obviously as any play, you got to be careful with what you're doing. Now more specifically, let's talk about Lowe's and yes, I'm gonna toot my own horn here because we talked about Lowe's quite a bit, especially after the Home Depot report and I thought this was a pretty slam dunk of a play and obviously their earnings went the way we kind of all expected they wouldn't Lowe's Cuts full year sales forecasts as spending on do-it-yourself projects weekends.

So what you need to know is yes, earnings per share they beat Revenue Yes they beat. but right here Lowe's cut its full year outlook today Tuesday as lumber prices fell and do-it-yourself consumers bought fewer discretionary items. Now this one I mean Lowe's in Home Depot are very very similar businesses. So when Home Depot misses Revenue by like a 20-year margin, like just the worst Miss In terms of Revenue Yeah, how could lows possibly do that well Like it's not going to be doing well with Home Depot, it would be something Would have to be like very, very wrong for one of these companies to severely outperform all the other ones severely underperformed.

So we see these types of companies that are in a very similar industry and they always roughly do the same. So for example, the my favorite one is paying attention to how the first major airline does. Usually it's Delta and then you know know exactly how United American and Southwest are all going to do because there's such related companies that there's not going to be a strong outperformance or underperformance. So as soon as Home Depot reported last week that things weren't good in terms of its future guidance, I mean the evidence on Lowe's was there was greater odds than not that it was going to go the exact same way.

and that's exactly what it did now moving forward. I Want you to know that before the Market opens tomorrow, we're going to get coals, but the last major Mega cap company to report is after the market closes tomorrow. we have Nvidia So pay attention to that. Nvidia has been a Non-Stop runaway train to the upside just being driven by drunken Bulls just going and going and going and mulling over all of the Bears in their way.

eventually has to come to an M It's just a question of when and I am very hesitant to say when that will be in my own opinion just because this what's happening Nvidia is already so crazy that I it's just it's insane and I'm just enjoying the show and I'm not making any predictions on it. Well I will make a prediction because like, why not? It's just a little bit of fun. I Think if video will beat on earnings but I don't want to make a prediction on when I think the bull party in terms of price action will stop? Uh I Do think Nvidia will beat on earnings I Do just because all these other major Tech plays have been beating and Nvidia is kind of an Upstream Hardware necessity for a lot of these companies. Nvidia Their gpus are massively popular in the world of crypto in the world of AI which is like that's what they're going to do if you really wanted me to make a prediction on Nvidia I think they're going to get up there and their earnings report is going to be something along the lines of ai Ai ai.

AI Our closing remarks are going to be Ai and did we mention anything about the fact of how we're involved in AI If I like I I know you might be accusing me right now of getting a leaked version of their earnings report. Their earnings call their transcript I didn't I didn't I didn't I didn't but I have a feeling those are gonna be that's gonna be the transcript. Like they're gonna get up there and it's going to be like welcome to the Q1 blah blah blah blah. And we're here to talk about our recent success and Ai Ai.

Ai Ai Ai. It's just they just copy and pasted that. that's the whole transcript. They're going to say that for like five minutes straight and the Market's gonna be like whoa, Did they just say AI bro did Did Nvidia just say hey, we love Ai Ai is amazing.

The Market's gonna act as if this was the first time they've ever heard of AI so I think it's going to do well I'm personally not playing it just because it's honestly like I love Nvidia I really really do as a long-term investment. It's just simply overvalued right now. they're like Nvidia is so insanely overvalued that I can't get myself to go long on it just because the risk reward isn't there. But anyway, for the remain of the week, we have Best Buy on Thursday and also Costco on Thursday.

So I'll be paying attention to those. and then we're pretty much done with this particular earnings season after the Market opens. I Want to be talking about coral icon? Uh, Carl icon is 15 billion poor After Hunter becomes the hunted. Who's he being hunted by this guy right here? McGee Matt Cores is officially hunting Carl Icahn You've seen the memes of our boxing match and even though it was the underdog, sometimes the underdog lands a pretty nice punch and that's how it's going.

It's just me versus Carl at this point and it's looking pretty solid in my favor. so we're going to be returning to that. I Want to talk about how oil is popping and just before that Bell goes ding ding ding ding. The other things you should know right now we're waiting for the debt limit negotiations to finally conclude.

Tick Tock Montana Tick Tock is suing Montana I have that story. We'll cover that after the Market opens those cuts. Guidance as predicted. Diamond on Commercial Real Estate and he is not the only one.

kind of uh, sounding off some warning flags I Do want you to know that at 9 45 15 minutes into the day today we are going to get the PMI numbers and then at 10 A.M We are getting new home sales So 9, 45 and 10 am. So 15 minutes and 30 minutes into the trading day and with all of that being said, the casino is open. Best of luck to all. Play responsibly if not have fun.

Very quick reminder of all my positions. I Have spy puts 416 for this Friday I have nothing on Tesla I have nothing in pack West I have Wall calls for June monthlies 42.5 I have IEP puts 30 strike and those are also for the June monthlies I Today, my major watches are obviously the Spy IEP wall and I am considering getting a Tesla position and I'm considering getting a new spy position. That's my trading plan for the day. Obviously things could happen.

they might not happen, but actually, where am I at on everything IEP puts or printing? They are just to show you where I'm at on everything. Uh, here are my current positions on: Uh I have multiple accounts going right now I have Weeble I have Fidelity and I have interactive brokers, but Weeble's just the most aesthetically nice one to show you. Uh so IEP As you can see, I'm up 113 4.2 K Spy puts I am currently down 1K I Got in these last week and I've been babying the position I Would love to this for this to go back into my favor. Um, if these get close to there I might cut the position, take the money, and then just roll it out to a farther expiration date.

but overall, this is crushing it. IEP We talked about this yesterday morning. This is a position I got into yesterday morning. you guys all saw it you I called it out exactly when I did it and I updated everyone in locals.

Uh yes, I am swinging the entire position and right now that is Paying paying paying and I would love for this honestly just to keep ripping, ripping ripping. Uh, so as of now I am watching Tesla looking for an opportunity to maybe bet against it. and this is not like a negative hit on Tesla or anything. it's just the fact that it's art.

It just hasn't stopped running. Obviously, you could argue that it's been running ever since Thursday April 27th. But really, look at the move from Tuesday the 16th until now. Green, Green green green.

Green At a certain point, you just have to think that there's going to be some sort of reasonable mean reversion I haven't taken the trade yet, but if I see legitimate weakness here, uh, I am clearly watching it. my eyes are on Tesla because I think there might be some sort of opportunity there. Wall: I would love for that to go higher. Yes please, Yes please.

Actually, where are things at on wall? uh, that position? What is it? Options: It was for June 16th 42.5 strike and those are currently I'm in at like a dollar Thirty maybe a dollar Thirty one and they're currently trading at uh, 150 spread by 180. So I'm up a little bit and I I need that to go way way higher. Um, so those are my wall calls. So basically I have spy puts I have nothing on Tesla I have IEP puts and I have Wall calls and I'm trying to think of anything else that I have in terms of active trades right now.

not much. I guess my my main watch is actually spy and Tesla for potential new trades. uh, spy coming out of the gate showing a little bit of strength it obviously is down on the day. Don't forget at 9 45 in 10 minutes we get the PMI numbers and then at 10 AM we get new home sales, new home sales 10 a.m and then PMI numbers.

Uh, manufacturing and services at 9 45. Um, just so everyone knows. All right, cool, cool, cool. So here's the plan we are: I'm gonna wait.

You do what you think is appropriate I'm waiting for the first 10 20 30 minutes of training to play out before I do anything crazy. uh I Obviously I'm looking for IEP to continue to crack I Would love for it to close below 28 if it starts to show some strength here. If people are buying at the bottom, it might just be time for me to take my money on that wall. I obviously wanted to go higher I Want to see how it reacts to forty dollars key technical level key psychological level I Want to bet against Tesla but it it's just been showing so much strength so if if I do that, it's gonna have to be very close to risk.

I I'm not going to want to risk much on that Tesla play if I end up like doing that just if I got in like here I'd be risking 189 190 at Max like I'd have to keep the risk really tight just because I don't want to get completely blown out of the position. So a couple things to pay attention to other than that: I Want to talk about what's going on in oil oil recently bouncing up to 73 a barrel and that's because of some of the commentary from OPEC So we're going to be going over that I Want to go over Tick Tock fighting with Montana I Want to go on what's happening in IEP Why I'm short how icon Uh, apparently a just like losing billions and billions and billions of dollars like this guy's net worth, he's just getting absolutely slaughtered. So we're going to be talking about IEP And just for those of you who are actively doing things in uh, Crypto Bitcoin Recently having a pretty solid bounce hovering over 27k Uh, we have Eth sitting at 18.50 and even Pepe is trying to hold on here. So shout out to uh the meme Traders and Pepe I still have my position slightly above break even right now, but it's small.

It's for the lulls. It's not a like a hardcore play that I'm like really I don't know. betting the farm on if you will? Uh so Tess look at that strength. um I Wanted to ask all of you what's your thoughts on the day? Are you feeling green? Are you feeling red? I Know a lot of you consume a lot of different information than I do and I I Like the amalgamation of different ideas we have going in in here, Are you guys feeling like eh? I Want to wait for those reports to come out this morning? Are you feeling man? Walls already down? A dollar? twenty? Come on wall, Not cool brother.

Uh, are you feeling green? Are you feeling red? Maybe you're not watching the overall Market Maybe you're actually more SO waiting to see what's going on in like individual stocks I mean Tesla's still going which is just insane technically red from its clothes. but look at that. Tesla So much strength. So hot right now.

So hot right now. Uh I Want to wait for the 18th of the month strategy the 18th trading day. Um, so that is actually at market closed today. Or if you're waiting for Market open, you can wait for Market open tomorrow.

So you're either doing it at close today or Market open tomorrow. Um. I Have not decided if I'm going to do it yet because it's very dependent on if the Spy can recover this level. I Cannot stress enough how important this level is on the Spy We are below the low of the past two days.

if it doesn't quickly. Bounce From here, that's a legitimate breakdown. Um, so this here. I'll delete this and we'll just do this for now.

But you can see the low and uh, the recent low of the past two trading days both Friday and Monday was 417 and some change. We are now below that. If it cannot quickly recover, this might be the classic fake out breakout that comes right back down. And I would love to take that opportunity.

Understand, the risk is a little bit large. You're risking three dollars, you're risking four dollars. So obviously you'd want your target to be higher than three or four dollars. You want it to be better than one to one.

But whenever you're getting into any play, it doesn't matter. if you're day trading, it doesn't matter. If you're swing trading investing, you have to ask yourself, what is your risk Okay, we have IEP breaking down Beauty it's a beauty and I think I want to get into Tesla I want to get into Tesla Pltr is running. Pltr has been non-stop running ever since its earnings.

Uh, it got at one point Palantir was really ripping. then it got beat up pretty bad. but now, um, with some of its recent numbers, people are loving it. Once again loving it.

once again, pltr up another almost five percent. Officially, at five percent, that's just crazy. Ah, absolutely crazy. So I'm looking for an opportunity.

Um I don't know I'm There's other people on the interwebs who talk about Palantir far more intelligently than I would because I just don't follow it that much but pound here. it has been rocking I have no position but the bullish momentum is very evident. All right, Is this my opportunity on Tesla I feel like I could wait a little bit I don't know though that I'd I don't really want to make a position before the PMI numbers come out at 9 45. you know what? I'm waiting uh I know I feel like any time I Rush a trade and I feel like I'm like oh I have to do it.

Those are the times where I really get my like ass handed to me. So that's how I feel right now with Tesla I'm trying to read my own emotional state, my own psychological State and I'm I'm feeling that look at that I would have entered and then instantaneously I would have been pissed off so I didn't do it I'm reading my own thing I Want that numbers the number to come out in six minutes? we get uh PMI numbers two different reports coming out at 9 45. I'm just gonna wait I'm just gonna wait uh IEP though, making me happy IEP Oh man. I kind of almost want to roll the position because uh I'm already in the money so it's not going to move as like I don't know vaultly as I want but I have IEP puts and this is getting crushed once again below 28 I think it's like a danger zone? look at that spy happy I didn't do it just trying to I'm trying to be a better Trader You know, trying to just be a little bit more realistic with like not feeling that the fomo and everything I mean right there you know some people started betting against Tesla and then it pops right away and then they're probably pissed off.

Oh man oh man, the Futures Market saving itself right at that support level. We should probably set an alert here I must set an alert just in case that starts to break down. uh I don't have any Futures positions right now I'm a little bit more interested in the equity market today. parallel interior fripping wall trying to make a comeback pack W up 11 popped even more giving back but still up 11 IEP definitely showing some weakness.

Oh brother brother. do I just collect all of the IEP money and then roll it to a different strike I mean I'm up 135 I'm up 5K on that waiting, waiting waiting waiting. What's up with upstart? Uh, what is? uh, good earnings A while ago and it's it gapped up came down a little bit. This was your most realistic entry point was that 17.

You only had to risk a dollar 25 and since then it's been a Non-Stop runaway. Um, it's in the world of AI It's in the world of real estate. So it at one point was it darling. it just like couldn't mess anything up and then it really messed things up.

but it looks like they found their footing after making a fresh low bouncing off of that, getting a breakout. It's a little chasy to me right now if you're already in it. We talked about this actually exactly yesterday of how the momentum is phenomenal. If you're in it, you just ride it.

You ride it. You ride it. But that's a very different question then should you be creating a new position? Now, just because something has absurd bullish momentum doesn't mean you go bullish on it because you have to ask yourself what is the risk And right now I think the risk on it for any type of Swing play is a little too large because it's already moved so much already moved. so much rums hanging out at 10 wall.

I mean let's see what's going on with Kre Kre. just kind of chilling at 40 the Spy we're you know I guess we've traded enough that it's time to make some of these um, drawings. Some of the drawings IEP 22.5 puts working. come on down.

map. yeah. I mean I guess I could roll because we still have time, we still have time and I could just clock and lock in the whole position right now and open p l it's up to 5K I could I could take just half the profit and then roll that and it's still kind of a free play. All right.

Anyway, the major thing we're listening to is in literally, just in what is it? two minutes, a minute and a half? Well minute 45 we're getting the PMI numbers. I'm definitely expecting a little bit of a jolt in the market I Don't know if it's to the upside I Don't know if it's the downside, but I'm definitely expecting a little bit of a jolt in the market. As of now, the Spy is battling it out at that breakdown level. we are.

Literally How crazy is that that? we're about to get an announcement and we're exactly at the breakdown level. If it gets above it and holds, hey, this might be the bounce. but if it gets smacked here and breaks this trend line, uh, it could be a pretty brutal brutal day. So with all that being said, let's see if they're going to announce it on CNBC, he should trade up.

From the white card to the Black Card I mean that chart right there? that's BJ and Costco that's I mean is that what you would expect going into coming out at 9? 45 we have exactly 60 seconds PMI report and then at 10 A.M New home sales from everybody else we need to see Kroger I Thought that Walmart was tepid Tesla's still going super happy I didn't get in there. This is why I need to remind myself to stick to my rules. The hardest thing is creating a rule and you're not sticking to it and then like you get pissed off at yourself I think that they went over the base they struggle for I mean the target I I think Brian Cornell is Sensational He did not say this quarter was good. He said each month was worse and wow.

Someone from the FED should be saying ripping faces here because each month's worse. Ripping faces because of wages, right? Although there's still an expectation they are going to pause. the cues are not don't have. Maybe they say Microsoft is not going to plan to get to Apple Washington Not really going to Nvidia not.

it's just Tesla man Tesla is a runaway Freaking friends. PMI numbers should be coming out about that. Well, we did kind of talk about it because we didn't we didn't kind of talk about it. Okay, uh, let's get some Pmis for that.

We'll turn to Rick Santali this morning. Really? Rick's a chat. Yeah, manufacturing was still a minus number even though it improved. Regarding service sector.

Here we go on the manufacturing side. Wow. under 50 Again, 48.5 You know we popped over 50 last month and it was the first time since October We're back. Below at 48.5 is the lowest level since January Uh one, excuse me Yeah, when it was 46.9 and if we look at the services, by far the most important aspect of this, Uh, 55.1 it's improved so yields are going to firm up a bit on that.

55.1 is the highest level since April of last year when it was 55.6 And finally when we put them together, the composite reading 54.5 also a bit better than expected 54.5 Tesla above 190. April Of last year, rates have moved up not to the highs yet, but definitely the service sector is what many are are concentrating on because that's the focus of some of the best strength in the economy. especially when one considers the pass by 4 17 65 right now. Short break, all right Market Popping on the PMI news.

uh, just made a fresh intraday High Tesla is a runaway train Regional banking a little flat now pretty much at its open IEP just sold and now it's still looking kind of weak. Low volume though. very much low volume I cannot get over Tesla is I think Tesla I mean we just ripped from 186 to 191 like it was nothing Tesla is just, uh, very happy I did not buy a Plus on it. This is why you want to wait for some of the news.

and there is another piece of news coming out at: 10 A.M 10 A.m 10 A.m 10 A.M Do we have a little bit of a bear Channel going on right now? A little bit of a buyer Channel All right watching these trend lines on the Spy just to see if that's what other people are watching today. IEP Cannot really catch a bid, everything's being given up on it Tesla Can only catch bids and while I would love for wall ticks flowed over like well, the higher the better I would love for wall to be at a gazillion today. but I don't think that's gonna happen I don't think that's gonna happen. Centelli is the best I just Rick just seems like a cool guy Rick is the kind of guy that you're gonna go to like a ball game with them.

You're gonna have a couple beers and he's gonna have like humorous very like Niche knowledge of something and it's going to be a great time. Definitely gonna be an absolute great time. Never met him in real life. Maybe one of these days.

maybe one of these days I'll somehow get to a level of Fame that I could be graced by the presence of Rick Centelli. uh I don't know if it'll ever happen because like he's up there with Taylor Swift Oprah the president. uh, those are the type of people he would talk to and I just I'm I mean I have an ego but I don't want that big of an ego I don't know if I'll ever get to that level, but man oh man, up 110 on Tesla calls I Grabbed yesterday debating just taking the W uh I mean trailing stop loss, easy peasy if it just keeps going. uh I think when you're ever you're up big big and you're like I don't know what I want to do in options if you're up over 100 I do personally like cutting half the position just because then there's a lot of play like it's you're playing with the casinos money at that point.

Um, if you don't want to do that trailing stop loss just like if the trend is alive and I mean look at Tesla today it's just Rip City. It's crazy Rick has never been wrong. Well, exactly That's what happens. like he's essentially an omnipotent.

being essentially an omnipotent being. look at Carvana's Short interest in sharp, um, Carvana. Well, it's probably shorted because it's a shitty company. like it's not a well-run company by any means.

I mean all this is is pump and dumps. Pump dump pump dump pump dump. Corvette Like there's I don't think anyone could really I mean I would be interested to hear the argument of any positive fundamental thing going on with Carvana? Uh, it's shorted because it's fundamentally a poorly run company. With that being said, that means it could be like there could be a squeeze involved and we've kind of seen squeeze-esque scenarios in the past, But whatever it squeezes to it gives it all back I would not if Carvana ends up going to whatever very quickly to a high value.

I Do not think it'll be holding whatsoever and I'm literally just going off the history of Carvana's chart. It pumps it dumps. it pumps it dumps. it pumps the dumps.

It pumps the dumps. It pumps the dumps. Um, I A lot would have to change for me to be like oh, okay, like I'm like loving Carvana right now. Uh I I Just don't see that quite happening man.

All right. So in terms of events, the scheduled events that are happening today. we got the PMI numbers at 9 45. As you can tell from the screen, the market very much liked it.

However, we're getting another report at 10 A.M So in just under 10 minutes about, uh, home sales, so we're going to be paying attention to that, Let me see over here. what is this? What is this? As funds run short treasury, ask agency if payments can be made later. Whoa! Uh, what else do we have Dallas Feds Logan says speed of transaction has highlighted need to manage liquidity risk Every Bank should be ready to borrow from the FED Republican Debt ceiling Negotiator representative Graves says Republicans White House Still far apart on debt ceiling after Monday night talks so that came out at 904 this morning. Apparently they are still far away on talks Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing Regional Banking minus 16 versus minus 22.8 in April Market Still popping Spy still popping IEP still showing some weakness Wall: Ideally making a turnaround here so my spy calls are getting.

Excuse me, my spy puts are getting rocked. Um I Apparently should have bought some Tesla calls to balance that out. Man oh man oh man oh man. what else is moving folks? Uh, Carvana gave me 17K for Kia it's worth about 16.5 I Don't know how they stay in business among many other issues that they're being played with and they could fix it.

Obviously, just because the company is being poorly run at a certain moment in time doesn't mean that it can't be improved. But I it's also a question of capital efficiency. I Think there's just better opportunities in the market than Carvana because we all have a finite amount of money unless you're the fed. and if you are the fed, you probably shouldn't be watching my show.

You should probably be doing your job. Um, so barring any of the FED members watching my show today, we don't have infinite money. So you have an A Very finite amount of money so you can only do x amount of things with it. and I just think there's better opportunities right now in real time than Corvana.

Uh uh. Matt Where is the gap on spot? We have gaps to both the upside and the downside. It depends what you're talking about. There's an upside Gap fill to 421.22 and then we have some downside Gap fills to 407.27 for a 160 396.49 Uh, basically this top number, the green and then the three bottom numbers in the red are all gaps.

One upside Gap fill and then three downside: Gap fills All right. Is this the moment we turn? or is it just a basic breather? Remember 10 A.m 10 A.m 10 A.m What do you think of Neopotential? Uh, cheat? Clapper or nah? I'm not the biggest fan of Neo it's Tech It's kind of impressive. Um, the issue is uh, you have also geopolitical risk with Neo because it's a Chinese company so that has to be considered. The chart is awful, so someone would have to make a compelling case for me to invest in Neo At this point, it's just you really would.

Uh, if I wanted to invest in an EV play, I would be investing in the one that's actually performing I mean look at Tesla actually performing uh Neo isn't Which tells me something is like potentially up there and it's not looking so good. Um, so right now, my favorite EV play and it's been my favorite EV play for a while is actually Tesla with Neo like I I Don't want to like, be too too negative on it, but I think you have to like, truly, truly consider the extra risks of it being a Chinese company. right now, we are clearly in a political pissing match with China So uh, that could definitely add some complexities to it. Foreign oh man.

Tesla is still freaking going. One night it went from 186 to 192. damn well really really happy I didn't get in here. uh I did not expect this by any means.

but Tesla a runaway train uh, walls coming up I like that IEP I'd prefer that a breakdown and stay below 28. spy showing some strength. So things are looking good for me today except for my spy put and that was just a really dumb position from last week that I thought I was going to get lucky with this morning and be able to get out for Break Even Uh, but obviously that's not happening. The major thing I'm watching is Ken the stat.

Um, we'll just I don't know it. This is the region of support between 4 17, 60 and 4 17 35. This is what I'm watching if the Spy can stay above it. Okay, cool.

I think the Bulls are still in power if it goes below and stays below, especially closes below. I think maybe just maybe the recent run over the past whatever week might be coming to an end. Um, so I'm watching this level right here. this region of support.

What is that? About 25 cents this 25 cent region above it I'm bullish below it I am bearish but uh I want to see some serious volume traded either above it or below it to kind of make some of my decisions here. Tesla just running, that's all. apparently knows how to do what else is moving today? Pac W is actually popping pack W is up 20 I have no packed W position uh obviously I wish I freaking did uh did I grab my Bior profits. What's Bior doing? Oh geez I think I need this at a hundred to break even such a play.

Such a dumb play I don't know why I ever ever touched this Microsoft Looking good? just move him Apple Watch this trend line maybe set up an alert on Apple 122.50 ADD alert Apple shown a little bit of weakness. remember how we were talking about 176 on Apple it gapped above that on Friday but then sold down and couldn't recapture. This might be a nice clear rejection. Uh, obviously that would have been a very nice one to get into because you would have only had to risk the recent High which would have been 176.39 So on the breakdown of 176.

you could have got in if you were paying attention and obviously it would have been paying off for you nicely. Right now, seeing a little bit of weakness I Feel like the golden question here is is it going to keep adhering to this trend line or is it going to actually finally break down I mean one, two, three, four is is is the fifth time? The charm on Apple Tesla Uh, actually at a breakout level right now of 192. we see some recent rejections there so we'll pay attention to that. 192 192 and some change.

This is now the sixth Green Day in a row. At a certain point, you have to just wonder who who's buying all this. I don't know if Arc Invest is loading up I don't know if Elon's getting even more like someone is buying serious size on Tesla Absolutely crazy rum recapturing tem love for it to stay above 10. but I want to see the test, the breakout and the hold of 10.50 you have Bitcoin kind of going flat but holding over 27k you have eth going flat but holding over 18.50 you have Pepe that did go up to extraordinary Heights come all the way back down but now kind of just going flat at just below 16.

uh, what else do we have IEP unfortunately recaptured 28 I Want the breakdown of yesterday's close at 27.56 The queues even. They're looking a little bit toppy, but we're not really pushing 335.50 yet that's the recent low that it'd have to really like be heavy on that line. Um I Don't know it. It feels as if we're getting close to some sort of top, but we're just not necessarily seeing the opportunity quite yet to strike.

We're just waiting. We're just waiting. We're just waiting. Uh, 15 minute 15 minute is red, white and blue.

so we are upside down. So just based on the moving averages, I'd be a little bit more comfortable being bearish just because that is the recent moving averages, Um, the one minute is mixed up, the three minute is upside down red, white and blue, blue, white, red, the five minute is blue, light red, the 15 minute is blue, white. REM The 30 minute is mixed up, the two hour is still red, white and blue, the four hours still red, white and blue, and the daily is still red, white and blue. So basically the way I'm seeing things is it still looks a little bit toppy.

I Want to wait for that 10 A.m report that should be coming out momentarily. Actually, we'll see if we can bring that up and listen to it. and then we might be able to play some trades. We might be able to place some trades.

come on, pack or I want Regional banking to continue upward? Come on. Come on. come on, come on. come on.

come on. Today's seasonality is so far holding true. Uh I mean today's seasonality Eduardo is like kind of choppy mess. like nothing too special.

Uh, the bullish seasonality really gets underway at close today or at Market open tomorrow depending on like how you want to do it. Uh, are they not giving us this? Hello? CNBC You're a little slow. Um, even Benzinga doesn't have it yet. All right.

I'll let you guys watch the market then as we're waiting to see how this all goes. Is this the opportunity? on Tesla I Mean just what a freaking pump good Tuesday Morning and welcome to another hour of Squawk on the street I'm Sarah Eisen here with coral continia David Faber Live for you from Cnbc's inaugural CEO Council Summit in Santa Barbara California Good morning we are about. are they going to give us the home and it looks like stocks are under a little pressure? s P's down two tenths of one percent NASDAQ down about a quarter of one percent. still higher on the week.

You've got energy utilities, real estate, and consumer discretionary. Positive: Everybody else is falling in the early going here. Pretty decent diet of uh Eco data this morning with Pmis and there's a little more crossing the tape. Let's get to Rick Santelli hey Rick yeah, Richmond's bet for May on the manufacturer Apple coming around minus 15 the weakest since February if you look at the services side Amazon Business index minus 17 which is exactly equal to March And of course it follows minus 27 which was the weakest level since May of 2020 and still unrevised.

Which continues to demonstrate that there are lots of reasons that many are looking for a recession down the road. New home sales for the month of April expected to be up 665 000 seasonally adjusted annualization invested that 683 683 000. would have been exactly the same as last month, but it was revised last month now stands at 656 000 so 683 stands out as the best level going back to March of last year when we cost the threshold over 700 000. And to get a little bit more color on why single-family homes seem to be improving here, Let's go east to: Diana Olek Diana Well, Rick actually I'm out west, but I'll say it's all about the inventory.

There's just nothing for sale out on the existing Home Market And that's why we saw exactly that look in his eyes. He's like I don't care. Signed contract in April So people out shopping looking at their market right around 60.5 So I'm kind of in the middle of where we've been skewing between six and seven percent. We're all closer to seven percent today, but it's all about incentives.

and I'll note that the builders are dropping prices too. We had a median price of 400. We're never going to see this lady again. Rick's ensure that year over year they're buying down mortgage rates, they're lowering prices, and they're seeing traffic come in.

They set it in their Builder sentiment survey that they're just getting so much more traffic because of the lack of homes for sale on the existing side. Builder Sentiment Popped up into that positive zone for the first time since last summer, so the builders are really benefiting from it. The question is, can they build more because we're not seeing as much new construct action as we'd like to see on the single family side? Still a lot of multi-family but we need to see more of that in order to get this out there. Now there is a 7.6 month supply that's unchanged month to month, which is much better of course than the two-month Supply you're seeing on the existing side, but the builders still are only building what they're selling.

They haven't gotten that much. We're starting to hear rumbles about getting into the spec Market but so far we need to see more of that. Sarah Sarah All right. Diana Thank you Rick's not there.

We're not there. All right, All right, All right. Well as my financial advisors, is it now appropriate to bet against? Tesla I am the best Tesla Trader On this side of the Mississippi it's looking a little bit toppy. It's just moved so freaking much.

Ah, charts Tesla options, options, options June 2nd June 2nd I'm looking at the 185s. Hmm, maybe the 182s do I just not want to do it on this account I'll do it I'll do it I'll do it I'll do it I'll do it all right I got in Tesla 182.5 June 2nd I Paid 296 a pop Uh, obviously I Hope this goes without saying, but my risk is 192. if it gets above and holds above that a Euro guy, your your boy needs to pull the rip cord on it. Uh, so I'm looking at 192.

that's my risk. My thesis on this, just to make it plain, is we've gone too far too fast and I feel like some sort of pullback is necessary even if it's to 180. even if it's to just the freaking low of yesterday, maybe 177. I'm looking for it to just come back down here and just a classic mean reversion I Don't have some fundamental breakdown or anything.

it's literally just a mean reversion play I think when you go one, two three, four, five, six green days in a row I think the odds of continuing that get lower and lower and lower each day. and if I'm wrong which I very well could be wrong. Uh, my risk is well defined. It's going to be a break and a hold of 192 which freaking might be coming right now might end up burning this trade man.

I probably should have done this on the other account. probably should have been doing this on the other account. but we'll see. We'll see.

We'll see, we'll see. time will tell. Let me go to the three minute. Looks a little bit better right now.

Looks a little bit better I hope the patients paid on that. the Spy r