And I made her on an elevator on its way up to the hotel room of my fian. but I never made it there cuz she I'm tearing through my life like a torado coming on hotter than a big potato. she spin me around and see you later to ha her but I love her instead we call the red out to to by. she was blowing through my door like going out style in general a sensible guy but that guy died when she come tearing through my life like a tornado coming on hotter than a big potato.

she spin me around and see later on a ha. but I love her instead. Well I lost my job SP all of my money, most of my friends and half of my mind so messed up it's a little funny and I thought for sure that she was M now I'm alone trying to get right picking up the pieces of my bust life if she walked into this room tonight I'd say baby won't you come tearing through my life like a tornado coming on hotter than a big potato she SP me around and see you later on a ha another instead want a ha another inste oh brother oh brother oh oh brother good morning, good morning, good morning and my apologies Fair it's fair I See that a lot of you are. You're already giving me Dem merits for the day and you're right.

You're right. You're right. You're right I can't even fight back I I was streaming on time I just was sending it to the wrong Rtmp code so it was a completely different Stream So If you guys caught that specialty stream that lasted about 3 minutes, uh, congratulations to all of you, it's already deleted. It's a it's a piece of Super Secret MK Content that you had to watch it in real time and you can no longer find it.

So uh, my apologies for that and also, you're welcome to the people who caught the Super Secret show. But folks, we're starting early today I'm already earning my demerits and they are rightfully earned I Can't even argue with you about it, but we're starting early today because in a mere four minutes, we're going to be getting the GDP report. It's going to be an important one, especially when you consider the fact that wowe the overall Market is looking very, very, very bearish. Uh, actually incredibly bearish.

and before we all get crazy and yo into some zero DTE puts I Do want to pay attention to this economic report I Want to go over some of the earnings I Want to go over some macro political economic developments that could have an impact on the whole situation and also just don't forget about the fact that, yes, mean reversions a thing. I Am a wholehearted believer that when there are people who are particularly like bearish bearish bearish and everyone's screaming and they're all on the exact same side. I Kind of think to myself, well, that's a group that's about to get screwed. so that's my opinion.

So even though the Market's going down, down, down, down, down, the fact that I see everyone on Fin Twit being absurdly bearish, it makes me feel well. the market is about to teach them a brutal lesson. So just something to keep in mind. You don't want to be the last one to the party you want to be there.

When the part's like kind of starting, you know you want to be there at the appropriate time, not too early, not too late. you definitely don't want to be chasing it. So I'm going to go over some support some resistance levels because no matter what, no matter what the bias is that you're absorbing from mainstream media from Fin Twit from dumb streamers like myself. Really, what it all boils down to is the fact that it's all risk and reward.

Whether you're bullish or bearish, the question is, do you have your risk in control and are you going to be disciplined enough to stick to your risk? If you could do that, that's already 90% of the way there to being a profitable Trader It really is. It's all about discipline and sticking to your exact rules or your exact system that you told yourself you would. So just something to considered Now Like I said, we're starting early because the GDP report is going to be coming out so we're going to watch that live. That should be now out in about two minutes.

Then we're going to be doing some chart breakdowns. We have some earnings to go over. Uh, yesterday. Meta reported kind of.

uh, not the best like the numbers were good. but then the future guidance? not so good right now I'm seeing a lot of negativity, a lot of bearishness, and potentially for good reason. My whole point is, none of us are expert fundamental predictors. None of us are Clairvoyant Well, if you are please DM me because I would love to know like what's going to happen in future seasons of The Bachelor uh.

But anyway, assuming that none of us can accurately tell the future, here, it it, it's all noise. It really is like everyone has an opinion. If if you want to support your own bias of being absurdly bearish, you can find it. If you want to support your buys of being absurdly bullish, you can find someone saying that if you want to support your buys of being absurdly neutral in chopping sideways, you could find that It's my point is is, everyone has an opinion, and if you hold your opinion long enough, especially in the long term, you're eventually going to be right.

You're going to find pockets of bullishness, pockets of bearishness, pockets of just chopping sideways and effectively being neutral. So it's it comes down to you. It comes down to what are you trying to do, What your account size? what's your personality, what's your trade duration? find out what works for you, and 99.9% of what you consuming Arguably probably this as well. It's noise.

It is noise. It is noise. It is noise. So please remember that before we switch over to the GDP report.

Shout out to Apex Prop Trading That is the sponsored today's stream. Um, they're partnered up pinned to the top of chat. They're currently running a 90% off deal. Generally they run 70 or 80% off, so this is a little bit abnormal and just celebrating $50 million in payouts.

Um, so pin to the top of chat in the description of the video. You can also use this code right here. TPM Bgl us to get 90% off. That's what I use for my Prop account trading.

And on that note, let's where is the video. Where is the video tangible assets? So that's you have 4.3 you thank 4.3% And we should mention Leslie Picker is going to be interviewing Ted Pick and James Gorman in first on CNBC 10 a.m. eastern time this hour. Confusing Leslie Picker and that's is standing by with breaking economic data.

Uh Steve You got a second to think about it. It's Jo I am thinking about it I'm waiting for it to appear online here I don't quite have it yet there it is 4.9% That's against a consensus of 4.7% Joe With the uh, sorry the Dow Jones consensus, it was 43 for for Reuters um I don't have any details right now I Got some details here. Let's see um 49. The deflator was 35.

It's a percentage Point higher than the consensus had expected. uh letting to see here. Uh, consumer spending here? Uh, which was expected to be the thing that really drove all of this. But I am interested as well Joe in the issue of how how much uh, businessmen came along here because if it was just the consumer, that's one thing.

it's business spending that drives the economy over time. Uh, here we go. I've got the report in front of me. No.

Rick Gp23 I Steve's a good guy and everything but I think we all wanted Rick Joe I don't have the data. it's kind of trickling over I'm going to throw it back to you. uh, it's it's a beat on the upside. um, we had seen, uh, a lot of Uh forecast for 5% and I'll be digging in to see what the consumer did, see what business did, but you do have that inflation inside it which was a percentage Point higher than expected Joe Steve the uh, just historically you get the first look.

If we're going to if this is going to be the highest print in a while, let's say would the second and third look at the third quarter? would it I mean would it be be lower than this? Have confidence this holds up at 49. What's what's Don't Joe the the average the standard deviation: This a percentage point on average. It's plus or minus 1.3 percentage points by the time they get around a chewing this up five years from now. Um I Think it's safe to say that the number is going to be higher than potential.

It's It's a strong number. It's stronger than when we started. Uh, estimating this quarter. But yeah, you're right.

it is going to be revised again and again and again over the next several can just because of the difficulty of counting economy. Hey Steve Just to add to that, us, jobless claims number up 10,000 to 210k. The Uh: The week before the October 14th week, Jbless claims revised to 200k. Any quick thoughts on that? Um, again, it's not ticking up.

Uh, apparently I think we went through this one time. Uh, those so pretty much do not get jobless claims. Durable goods came out as well. That's higher than expected versus those would be people who would be eligible for I Am getting a little more data here.

Consumer spending 4% Um, the price index X food, energy, and housing was plus 1.8% So that's about half of what it was the prior quarter. so that's good news right there on inflation Again, I Do not seem to see the business spending number, but that's something I'm going to be looking for. Um, one other thing. the ECB uh, this morning came out at 8:15 kind of signaled I Guess you could read it into as a as some something of an extended hold in in policy.

What they said in their statement is that the current level of rates should help them make progress towards their goal of bringing down inflation to their target. uh, they hadn't use that language before it. It suggests that they may be on hold for a bit of the ECB which has up until this meeting hiked 10 times in a row. Joe All right Steve Stay with us.

let's bring in Uh Nathan Sheets City Group Global Chief Economist Francis uh Donald Manual Life Investment Management Global Chief Economist and strategist and our senior uh markets commentator Mike Santo Um, it wasn't five. uh Nathan it. It was pretty darn close though. Is this the highest print we're going to see for a while? And and and what's in this that that makes it look so hot? uh I I'm willing to lean in on this Joe and yeah I think this is the strongest.

let's technically down in poket we really? Mak A bit of recover the consumer spending during the third quarter. it was kind ofap to 4 Services sector yes. also good spending Entertainment: uh was hot with uh these concert tours and the barbin Heimer uh extravagances consumers just out to spend I know I know I know you guys come to me for a better Financial economic take than a dude who's probably with the right pedigrees highly qualified, looks snazzy with his suit jacket and tie while I'm here looking like Mr Rogers in my Dgen shirt. Um, shout out to everyone who has a Dgen shirt.

Uh, you're truly a Dgen I Appreciate that. So why don't don't go to any of these people with the right College degrees, the right networks, the right research. Instead, talk to the guy who got up, crushed the stair stepper, read a couple tweets and feels overly confident in explaining the entire global economic situation to you. This is what's going on.

So is this bullish or bearish? exactly? That's a That's a great question that no one in the world knows the answer to. because it's all baloney. It's all Fubar Folks The main mess message of this entire show, day in and day out, is no one knows anything. Let's Not listen to these people on.

TV CU They're on TV Let's not listen to me. Don't listen to yourself. Don't listen to your grandma. Don't listen to your cat.

Don't listen to any. It doesn't matter. Dude, none of it matters. It's all foar.

It's all random. Who's going to do what? When are people buying? When are people selling? I Don't know. We're all in a different place. different time frames, different account sizes, different decisions.

I Don't know if the hedge fund manager who's yoloing B right now is having a good day? Is he going through a divorce? What's going on with his maid? Is she cool? What about his kids? Do they get into the college that he paid off the College admission I Don't know. We're all going through different things and because of that, all the different Algos Everyone has different opinions. It's a borderline infinite variable equation. So for someone be like, well I successfully predicted this.

No, you didn't No, no, no, no, no, no luck, luck, luck, luck folks. I'm going to work tirelessly to reposit. Let's go big screen for this. Just to show you how serious I am Just to show you look at big screen big screen.

You know I'm being serious. That's a sign of seriousness on this show. I'm here to redefine how you view the market. There are a lot of times at various points within your trading Journey your trading career where you're kind of sucked into the world and it's almost presented as a way of like hang on.

Someone has almost, uh, a prophetic view of the market. They are right, a high percentage of the time and they're always just crushing it and they understand the puzzle a bit more than everyone else. That, in my opinion, is not the right way to look at the market. It really isn't this concept of being able to predict in the market which is always sold by every hedge fund and bank and blah blah blah, they're just shoving it down people's throats because it makes them money.

That is not the way to look at the market, especially if you're an active Trader It's a little bit more accurate. if you're talking about long-term investing and you're like, well, I think company XYZ or commodity or this out or the other thing. you might be like a decade or two out. You think it's going to be bullish.

but in a short time frame. Dude, you could be talking about the most bullish asset ever and it could still have red days. You could be talking about the worst asset ever and it could still have green days. This concept of oh, we're predicting this.

and here's my thesis. and I look at this level that level. Dude, it doesn't matter. It truly doesn't matter.

the shorter your time frame, the game is completely different. and I get so absurdly angry because I see all these like Tads who are trying to pitch you? They're like I have a system that is 90% accurate. If you did, if it were that good, you wouldn't be selling it. Let's just be honest.

if someone one was there as they're they're always there in their Lambo they have like something like their their Mac they're sitting there with their Mac computer sitting on their Lambo they're like I might be 16 years old I might be flunking out of like 10th grade algebra but I am the best Trader ever and you should be giving me money. It's like come on come on come on come on come on come on. In my opinion, you can be profitable trading. It's very difficult.

Not many people do it, but yeah, you could do it. I Think we all need to rewire our brain when it comes to active trading once again. I'm not talking about investing, that's a completely different sport. It's a completely different league and there is some mental crossover between active trading and investing when I don't think that there should be when it comes to trading, act as if you are the casino and what I mean like that is.

We all know casinos make metric buttloads of money. and for those of you who are maybe my European viewers, that is roughly equivalent to like a couple metric fuckloads of money. Um I Know there's a bit of like measurement system language barrier issues, but roughly it's the same thing. View it as the situation In certain situations such as blackjack or roulette or whatever it is, We know the house has the edge.

That's that's what it is. The house has the edge. Whatever percentage is it is in, craps, it in roulette, blah blah blah. They don't care about an individual one.

They care about a large series. When the deck is sacked in their favor, they know over a large series of data points they will be net profitable in my opinion. That's how all of us should view it. Don't care about one individual trade, but to yourself, whatever your system is I Don't know what it is.

Maybe it's something as simple as hey I Found out that there's an edge that if Microsoft is readed on a Monday there's more than a 50% chance with a one toone on mods of it being green on a Tuesday Great if it's one to one payout and you're about 50% If you take that trade over a long series of time, you're going to be profitable. So obviously that's a very rudimentary example. But as a retail Trader I Think that's where our advantage is. Now that's one way to be profitable.

Large series of Trades There's an edge slightly in your favor when you consider the accuracy and the payout. There are times where you have a 10% chance of winning, but if the payout is greater than really 10 to one Really? In that like nine to one's going to make you break even. Um, but if it's greater than 9 to1, that's profitable. so you don't need to necessarily be optimizing on accuracy, what you want to do is optimize on what's referred to as expected value.

That is your accuracy, the amount of time you're write, multiplied out by your average wind size, and then obviously you want to consider the percentage of time that you're wrong and the sizing of your average losing trade. If you look at your percentage of your winning time, your winning trade average size, and then subtract the percentage of time you're wrong and you're average losing T Trade size. If you subtract that latter value from the first value and that's positive, you have positive expected value. That's exactly how casinos operate.

They know over a large series of time. looking at the BET size and the accuracy that they have, that they're going to be profitable. That is my favorite way to trade. That's the way I Think most of us should be trading, but it's not the only way to trade.

Let's be honest. like the other very very very very real way to trade is to trade super infrequently, super infrequently. And you get super super good. At fundamental analysis, you get super good at this prediction.

That prediction is: the housing market going to collapse, Is the British pound going to go on? Tilt Are bonds about to have the squeeze of a lifetime? You get really, really, really knowledgeable at one thing thing, and you notice something that other people don't notice and you basically bet the house on it. So for me, at my age, my background, my skill set. this latter form of trading is not my skill set. I don't have necessarily the capability, the knowledge, or the intellect to notice some big phenomena in the overall Market that no one else is noticing I Am not the guy that is going through the subprime mortgagees is noticing Uh-oh Something's wrong here.

The rest of the world doesn't notice it, it's just at a certain point you have to ask yourself, what is your background? what is your skill set? That's not my background, that's not my skill set. You might be able to do that like hey, if someone's watching and that's your your thing, you're like no, no, no, no I track something weird in the Upstream Commodities related to semiconductors and it tells me that there's going to be a supply constraint and they're not going to be able to sell. and I'm short in the semiconductor industry. Okay, that's great.

Generally these are like medium to longer term. Like you need a couple months a couple years for it to play out. Potentially, it's not like it's going to happen overnight. So if you're the of the mindset that you're like no, no, no, I'm going big bets.

I'm doing a lot of research that's not day trading. that's not even really swing trading. You're probably going to be in it for a bit, even if you look at the stories of some of the best trades ever known to man. They took many, many months to play out what's commonly considered to be the best trade ever.

This guy made $20 billion, but he did it over the course of 2 years. He needed time for that to play out. So if that's not really of interest to you and maybe it is, and if it is, I mean I could show you great books I could show you where to look like that is a total possible way to be successful in the market. But that's not day trading and it's definitely not.

Well, it's not swing trading and it's definitely not day trading. If you are more interested in shorter time frame stuff, you need to really just view it as if you're the casino. View it as if you're a sports Gambler look at the odds of the situation. Ask yourself when you have an edge in terms of your positive expected value and you just take that bet over and over and over and over and over.

And you don't worry about one individual trade, you worry about that overall system that you are implementing time and time and time again. There are a lot of people who I guess like try to sell you something or they try to act like tough guys on the internet which is honestly one of like the most feminine things I've ever seen in my entire life of like these tough guy, fin Twit Traders and like oh well, blah blah blah join this like I'm so good at it's like and you ask him like what's your Edge how do you figure it out? What's your system, What's your entry, what's your exit and they can't tell you they don't know what their actual system is. it's it's a gut feeling. They're like, well I think Tesla's down so I'm going long I think Tesla's up.

so I'm going short. It's like what are you basing that off of at all. So with it I almost need to redefine like the overall like purpose of what I'm making this content for and I'm like really honing in on the fact that I need to completely reframe how I Guess education within the trading space or trading in a general sense is pitched to the entire retail. Community Because this concept of like there being a secret sauce, it doesn't exist.

The concept of a holy Grill does not exist. Those do not exist active Traders The people who make a shitload of money active Trading They are people who just have a positive expectancy system and they do it time and time and time again. Think about this. You think that they're think about this like honestly, like internalize this.

There's who have no TR proven track record at all. No degree, no certificates, no proven track record. Barely look like they're a competent human being and they're telling you about their 80 90 95% trading system. These guys who just like rented a Lambo and took a picture for Instagram and just clearly don't have their life together.

You're telling me that that person figured out something better than Jim Simons The Best Quant Trader of all time who has below a 51% accuracy? You're telling me withit McGee has figured out something that Steve Cohen the owner of the Mets one of the best traders who only has a 60% accuracy. Like you start to add this up, you look at the discrepancy between some of the best Traders ever who have made millions and billions and probably some of them at this point are managing trillions of dollars when they're barely getting it better than flipping a coin. You're telling me that those people have not figured out what like a random teenager who's like dude I'm right 95% of the time and I'm just crushing it like it just the way it is pitched in it's it's a double-edged short. I'm very happy that social media is a thing because I think it does form uh, it helps inform, it helps educate.

The expediency of communication in my book is a positive. Sometimes like there's going to be negatives to it's the yin and the Yang of the situation. But overall I think there's more positives than there are negatives. but social media has also like contorted it and this might be a surprise to some of you watching this right now.

Um, but not every thing you see on the internet is going to be real. It it really isn't. Um, and I know I know I know I know that you're like wait what? but I don't know if this is shocking you today Thursday October 26 2023 But I do want to inform you that not everything you see on the internet is like necessarily a board. Not everything you're seeing is like actually going to be like 100% accurate and real and nothing else going behind behind on like the scenes.

Uh, so remember that. Remember that. Remember that. Remember that.

So this game of really this whole Rand started from the question of like is this bullish or bearish It depends on your time frame. It really does when we're talking about overall macroeconomic development and like where we're going I would say the Bears are in control if we're looking at a multimon time frame I Think that the summer melt up the summer pump was a little bit of BS And right now we're kind of coming to the sobering moment of reality that yes, our yields are way too high, bonds are getting their balls kicked in. We have the dollar ripping. We have global conflict going on.

We have a lot of questions of what's going on in the world of energy and all of that, this isn't good. We see a lot of telltale signs that the consumer weakening their disposable income base is being eaten into. We're seeing student loan repayments restart. We're seeing credit card defaults Spike We're seeing a lot of shakiness in the corporate real estate sector God knows what's going on with China Overall, if we were to do like a macro themed thing of how are things playing out in the next like six to 18 months, it's very difficult to argue that the Bulls are currently in control.

One day, they're going to regain control. I Mean when the Bears are in control, arguably it's only for short periods of time. If you look at the history of the market Bulls Win out Bulls Absolutely went. Now if you're watching this and you see the title and you're like a stocks are plummeting, what should I do I'm not a financial adviser.

In fact, the only thing that I'm like certified as is a certified dip ship. But I can tell you this: I Know how to read basic charts I know how to read basic stats. There is no point in the US Stock Market history. You could pick any single day historically and if you fast forward 15 years, there is no example of the market being lower.

So yeah, there's rough times and all you have to do, like many other things in your life, is just White Knuckle it and get through it. just don't pay out of sight. out of mind. Go fishing, go do something else.

There are hits to the stock market, but if you have that longer term view, it really doesn't matter being a long-term investor in the overall. Market it you win in the end. That's exactly how everything is played out. So if you're coming in here like should I sell should I do this should I Just don't Just don't do it if you have quality things in your portfolio.

the Overall: Market The tech sector quality Blue Chip Stocks what pays is just sitting there sitting there sitting there sitting there. Now if you're in this for more of like you're an active Trader which hey, do every whatever I'm an active Trader too I'm an long-term investor I'm an active Trader In your long-term trading account, it's probably best to not touch it. It really is. Most of the stats I mean this is an interesting study.

from Fidelity The best performing accounts in Fidelity they've done research are from dead people. as in, the people who literally were incapable of touching their own account are the best performing ones. Yes, you're going to have rough patches. Obviously, you're going to have rough patches, but in the long term, the people who have the discipline to basically forget their password and just not touch it are the ones who end up doing very, very well.

But if you're more of an active Trader Yeah, you want to just ride the trend and just don't be greedy. come up with your system I Don't care if you're a day trader I Don't care if you swing for a couple days, a couple months, couple weeks. It doesn't matter. whatever your system is, know the odds of it and stick to it and just see if what you historically tested is actually playing out statistically in the real time.

and also in the future there's you Got to think of them completely different. Completely, completely completely different. And with this right now, Market I Would say the Bears are in control in the short term though that obviously we can still still get the upside: Gap fill I mean we have random things happening every day, so it's just do you have the discipline to keep your risk in control? That's honestly in my mind, the biggest separation between what an amateur retail Trader is and a professional. That's all it is is a person who has the discipline to keep the risk in control.

So on that note framework of the day. But yeah, we just did get some news on right here. Um, 4.9 on the GDP Uh, somewh expecting 4.3 but I actually saw the major forecast coming in at 4.7 So I don't think it's like as dramatic as a 60 Bips beat. I I think it's more of like a 20 bip beat.

Uh, anyway, the ECB that is the European Central Bank equivalent to Rfed equivalent to Rpal. Um, so their president She is actually speaking as of now. She started a couple minutes ago and then a half hour into the trading day, we are going to be getting the pending home sales report that comes out at 10:00 a.m. ET Once again, half hour into the trading day.

and I I also want you to know that the volatility, the excitement, it it it just it's not stopping here. I mean it's continuing tomorrow and it continues into next week. So an hour before the Market opens tomorrow, we get the Pce report, the Personal Consumption Expenditure report coming in out 830. That's a straight up another inflation report that's going to have big big effects on next week.

Wednesday November 1st when we get the next decision from the Fomc which is our Fed rate like are we doing? Are we staying at 5.25% Are we going up? Are we going down? Are we just staying flat? The odds are saying we're staying flat, but who knows. sometimes there's surprises. If I had a BET right now, I would very very much bet that it remains unchanged. I Don't think we're going up or down, but obviously those are just my thoughts on the situation.

Stock future slide after latest earnings batch as sell off continues, basically all those summer gains are gone gone gone stock feature slide with the NASDAQ set to fall deeper into correction territory. let's take a little look e see at what's going on so we're actually making a recovery now. After the GDP report came out, there is an upside: Gap Fill to 41702 4702 41702 is the upside Gap fill to yesterday's low talking about odds and systems and something that over a large amount of time is net profitable in the market. The Spy the cues, even the Russell the Iwm that is a profitable trade playing the upside and the downs inside Gapville.

So what I mean by that? Maybe if this is the first time you're meeting or oops, excuse me, maybe this is the first time you're hearing it I could explain it very quickly. So right now, if the market were to open this second which we have about 35 minutes, but let's just pretend it's opening right now, the market would open at 41657, which is obviously below the low from yesterday 41702 it's about a 30 35 Cent Gap that's an actual gap between we're opening up below the low. So you have a region, an untested region of supply and demand. And for whatever reason, the market loves to fill those untested areas to basically figure out what the supply and demand is in that untested area that was skipped over.

Which from a trading perspective means you have a quantifiable Edge to play that play to. Actually, if you have a downside, Gap you have a an edge like it is net profitable for you obviously with your risk and control to play the upside Gap and then vice versa if we Gap up above the previous day's High to play that downside Gap fill once again another quantifiable Edge Statistically, most of these gaps are filled the very next trading day. There are ones though that end up lasing for like days, weeks, months, years. Some of them never get filled.

but if we're looking at as like a cohort of trading like an overall trading system, it is net profitable to play. The Gap fills. Uh, once again, it's not a promise on every individual trade because remember, the goal is not 100% accuracy. It's being profitable in the long run.

Um, so just want to I guess lay out what's happening there US GDP Dated to show temporary Boost from Suber spending frenzy and that it did US Economic activity probably expanded at a nearly 5% annualized rate over the last three months amid a bevy of temporary tail ones. Came in at 4.9 The first official look at GDP for the July to September period came out this morning at 8:30 a.m. They were expecting ing somewhere be between 4.3 4.7 Really, most people were expecting 4.7 Came in at 4.9 It was set to show strength and consumers spending alongside slower growth in business environment investment excuse me And that's exactly what happened. A frenzy of Summer spending on travel and entertainment drove real GDP growth to an unsustainable Pace in the third quarter.

The Fed's tightening cycle is taking time to hit the real economy, but we believe higher mortgage rates, credit card debts, and business loan default will will hit growth this quarter. A growth rate near 5% in the third quarter would mark an acceleration over what's already been a strong year for the US economy, which has expanded by at least 2% in each of the last four quarters. The surprising resilience has kept the FED on a tightening path despite slowing inflation. so they're continuing to jack up the FED fund right.

They want to dampen demand and all reality the way I understand what's going on right now. I'm actually surprised that the Market's going up because the FED does not want the economy running hotter than it is right now. The FED is actively trying to curb demand. That's how you bring inflation in control.

So the fact that we're actually the economy in the last fiscal quarter is growing more rapidly than even the already high expectations. I'm surprised that the market is reacting in a bullish manner, because if anything, this is increasing the odds of the FED being hawkish. The whole echoing of fed rates higher for longer. So think about this.

uh. Mortgage payments, credit card payments, student loan, interest payments. really? any interest bearing product that, like consumers are paying those rates, are now either going up or staying at the very high levels for longer because of the fact that the economy continues to rip and rip and rip. Folks, It's no secret, we know that the Federal Reserve is actively attempting to increase the unemployment rate by 1% which is tens of thousands of jobs that they're trying to be like gone because that's how much they're trying to bring down the pace of the economy which is running far too hot.

Now for many of you who have watched the impeccable franchise Fast and Furious You guys know what happens when engines get a little bit too hot and not only is the US economy running hot right now, but our boy Vin Diesel has been putting something that is more high octane than NOS in the system. and not only is the engine burning Ember hot right now, but the whole thing is the tires are red hot, the chassis is red hot, the roof of the car is red hot, things are simply running too hot right now, and the FED is there who's obviously never raced a quarter of a mile on his life and they're like, that's not cool. We need to slow this down because if you run too hot for too long, you blow the up. So they're basically saying let's take some painful medicine now before things get even worse.

And unfortunately, even though they've been given Vin his medicine it's not been working, he's been relying way too much on the power of family and family is winning out in this particular scenario. So he's doing something now. I'm not the person here saying that Jerome Pal is attempting to murder all of Vin Diesel's family I'm not saying that, but if that's your takeaway. I'm not necessarily going to disagree I'm not necessarily going to disagree.

A large trunk of the strength came from temporary factors: the bar himer summer Blockbusters the Coner TS by Taylor Swift and Beyonce as well as factors that don't necessarily reflect underlying strength such as a buildup of retail inventories. So who are we going to blame Taylor Swift Taylor Swift Any Financial issues you're having in your life right now. this isn't coming from me, this is coming from Bloomberg it's Taylor Swift's It's Taylor Swift's fault If you're like all right, well, the economy needs to slow down so we get out of this like whole fed debacle earlier. Why is it not slowing down is because too many people like Taylor Swift She's way too popular.

She is potentially from a financial standpoint Bringing Down the entire US economy, so don't blame me. Blame Taylor that's that. That should actually be the name of the show. The US consumer is walking towards a cliff.

Trouble is brewing for the US economy and its pivotal consumer component. I Think the US consumer is walking towards a cliff. Basically, let's give this a little listen cuz we have a lot of time this morning. A cliff.

Basically, they're running out cash at excess savings. They've been run down. Qu dude. Honestly, you could say anything with a British accent and it just sounds right.

like I If you said this in an American accent I'd be like oh haha I'd make fun of just like the speech of just basically they're walking into a cliff. but when you slap on a British accent to it right away I'm like oh, this is the guy we need to listen to. This is the guy who knows what's up it. It's a secret to life.

If you want to sound smarter, just develop your British accent I think the US consumer walking towards a a cliff. basically I Already agree they're running out of cash. If you look at savings, they've been run down quite hard. If you look across the income Cor tiles, the bottom three or four Income Cor tiles have Under Pressure probably spent all those excess Savings in in negative.

Whatever he says. quartes. how many quartiles do you have if there's four? Well, quintiles I meant obviously sorry to be I do even know math I yeah, the bottom four quartiles, they're under pressure. The rest are fine.

it's it's a subtle way of slipping things in. Um, so you've got all that I mean And and of course, retail STS have been quite strong for the last few months. Everyone gets quite excited about that. but actually, if you look at what's going on um, people have been run, the household savings ratio has been run down, and in fact, real income growth has been negative for three months.

So so it's not all good news. I mean quite R I Think some real challenges coming for the the US consumer Yeah, Chris is Is it? Is it a case of their consumer going down toward towards this? Cliff as you point to perhaps a little bit blind and I say that just because there's there's this clear sense then that hey, wait, the you know the US is doing okay. Things are actually fine. The jobs Market is not as weak as one expected, but the highest level in 30 years of auto owners in the US Um, having their car payments in areas the highest in 30 years.

So clearly there's still there's still a a high. Just assume this is a conversation. genius. Those credit loses for quite some time aren't they? There's a lot of challenges and and we see the margins.

the consumer under a lot of pressure and in fact the labor Market's under a lot of pressure as well. There's this: I mean we had a good payrolls month, But if you look at a lot of the indicators of of where the labor markets like to go, a lot of them are fraying at the edges. they're quite soft. You look at the Kansas City fed labor Market Conditions indicator that's rolled off Qu quite meaningfully, which generally then the labor market follows a few months later.

So yeah, I mean I think the the consumers fraying at the edges. You see the pressure at the margins and we're going to get to the point in the next few months when I think the load Market starts to deteriorate more meaningfully and that Kickstart the recession when we get there. What does that mean? The stock market? Chris Bo Well, the stock market I mean I was listening to your last segment. I I mean I think leadership probably is changing in this stock market.

I mean Tech's been under a lot of pressure since July and I think the stock market is struggling to uh to really sort of know exactly where it wants to go. I mean from our point of view though, I I can see a bounce for a month or two. it's quite beaten up. You know Market's been coming down since July r S is a l of his play are like basket particular.

The US Equity Market is too expensive. It's overvalued. You know the US market is actually is it Extech? Well, it's not Xte. But you know the point is.

um, sure. always pockets of value everywhere. Absolutely. But the US in in aggregate is overvalued.

Tech's overvalued. I Mean the point is, seven stocks are a seventh of the global stock market capitalization. You know, 10 years ago they would have been 5% they're now 17, 16, 17% And the global stock market is a reflection of global corporate profits. So the US is the most expensive part of the global market.

if you look at the equity. R premium is rated this year. So yeah, I mean I think the US The US The US is uh is in for tough tons. It's I'll say it I'll say it cuz he can't cuz he's on a mainstream media.

but I'll say it for him. Check this out. Credit card users paid 130 billion folks. I'm saying billion with a B in fees and interest In 2022 alone: 130 billion Americans Paid 130 billion in interest and fees in 2022.

Late fees continue to be the most significant penalty charged to card holders as big as these 2022 numbers are. I Don't think anybody should be surprised if the 2023 numbers ended up being bigger. We're in for it. That is no bueno.

M Amigo American Car holders paid 130 billion in interest and fees in 2022. Card holders were charged more than 105 billion in interest last year and 25 billion in fees. The T represents the highest amount of interest and fees ever measured by the data set. Late payment charges are the most significant credit card fees in terms of frequency and cost.

Consumers paid roughly 14.5 billion in such fees last year, which represents a return to the pre-o levels. The Administration has focused on cracking down on what it terms junk fees with the FTC and Cfpb in all areas of consumers lives, including credit card penalties. Some credit card companies charge as much as $41 for a Mis payment. The goal is to reduce late payment fees to $8 ban late fee amounts to go over 25% of the car holders required payments, and end automatic annual inflation adjustments.

So I get the whole junk fee thing. but like statistically, that's a small portion of it. If we're looking at 130 billion, it's more of the interest being paid rather than the actual fees. I mean like we're talking about, four fifths of the problem is the interest, while 1 of the problem is actually the fees.

And for whatever reason I suppose I'm like I'm not complaining because it does help. But if we're looking at the actual issue, the actual issue is 105 billion. Not really sizable like relative to the 25 billion. And it's this 25 billion that the Biden Administration is working on lowering where I I mean call me crazy, but wouldn't better efforts be spent on trying to lower the 105 billion rather than the 25 billion? Whatever.

I Guess your opinion is on it. I Think we could all agree that 130 billion in fees in one year and it's going up? That's crazy. Absolutely crazy. All right.

Want to talk a little bit about today Just because yes, we started early. The show's in disarray. I Went on a rant. Some of you are happy, some of you are unhappy, and let's see if we could turn some of those frowns upside down.

So we got the GDP report this morning. Came out higher than expected. the Market's going up on the news, but it makes makes me feel a little sus just because we do live in the upside down. So generally good economic reports are bad and bad.

Economic reports are good and now we're seeing a good economic report lead to bullishness. I I I'm not buying it, not buying it I Need to be convinced tomorrow before the Market opens, we are streaming once again early 8:30 a.m. ET We are getting another inflation report this time the personal consumption expenditure we're still in the middle of earning season. Uh, meta I'm going to go over that today after the market closes.

We hear from Amazon Intel Nase Ford Chipotle and we're going to go over some of the ones from last night and early this morning. I Do want to let you know the seasonality of today Thursday October 26 Over the past 25 years, uh, the Bears have slightly had the edge even though it's kind of climbing up so it's kind of a neutral day. Uh, yesterday was actually seasonally very bearish. and guess what, the market got merked.

Um, but with this I just want to let you know today: seasonally, eh, neutral, but but tomorrow very much favoring the Bulls And uh, pay attention if you're on locals to the option strategy right now. we are on a 16 win streak heater 10 last week, six already this week looking to continue that record to 18 today. Uh, these are the earnings we talked about. Feel free to screenshot this.

Feel free to go at E Whispers on Twitter. It's a great account that always puts this kind of information out there I Personally find it to be very, very helpful, but these are some of the major earnings. So yesterday the market closed, Meta actually had a good report, but then that might be causing you to raise your eyebrow because you might be thinking, well, why is it down Meta beats on top and bottom lines as digital ad Recovery pushes Revenue up 23% so they beat on EPS They beat on Revenue They beat on daily active users. monthly active users was in line in average revenue per user was above expectations.

So across the board, Meta The Artist Formerly Known as Facebook crushed it. But if you take a little look e see at Meta right now, you might be thinking to yourself, what, what? Why is it? Why is it down 2.8% Why is it actually bouncing back and it's still down 2.8% Uh, in fact, it was way worse. In fact, it was all the way down to 286. Um, so you could see the reaction at first when just the report came out Market Ripped.

But then they gave us guidance and Meta got its teeth kicked in. Meta widens Revenue guidance range because of Middle East Unpredictability. So they're talking about how ads might be suffering in the upcoming quarter. And remember it.

it's as Wayne Gretzky would say. It's not about where the puck is. It's not about how you did in the last quarter. It's about where the Puck's going.

It's about how the world thinks you're going to perform in the immediate future. That's what stock prices are really based on. It's not a backward looking thing, it's a forward predicting looking thing. So the reaction was good because people were like, well, those were good numbers I bet they're going to continue with good numbers this upcoming quarter.

Then they got on the the earnings call and they said mm we We actually don't think that and they kind of going. The vibe of Tesla and Elon Musk were pretty pessimistic and gave like definitely words of warning And that's why Meta got absolutely rocked. In fact, a lot of Big Tech is getting rocked this time around. The only one that's like doing pretty well well actually no, Netflix and Microsoft both did pretty well.

Um, but we're seeing Tesla falter. We're seeing Google falter. We're seeing Meta falter. Uh, obviously we still have to hear from Amazon that comes out after the market closes today and we also have to hear from Apple coming out next week.

Big Tech Disappointing earnings erased 200 billion in value. The so-called Magnificent Seven technology companies that have powered this year's US Stock rally are posting disappointing earnings, wiping 200 billion off the market value and threatening to push the S&P 500 into a correction about 200 billion a race from Big Tech Earning so Microsoft did well. Uh, they don't have Netflix on this list, but it also did well. Google AKA Alphabet getting crushed Tesla Getting crushed Meta getting crushed but not to the same degree.

So we still need to hear from Amazon Nvidia and Apple. but as of now, the net difference is a loss of 200 billion. Beyond the world of tech, we do have other earnings Southwest slows 2024 growth as demand moderates. so Southwest is actually my favorite longterm investment in the airline industry.

It just has the strongest balance sheet, but even with that being said, it is getting slaughtered ever since. July Another sign that the consumer is weakening. Uh Airlines Greatly benefit from cheaper oil and a very ravenous I Guess user based consumer. When people have excess capital, excess income, excess, disposable income, they like to travel.

So when I see things like this tells me uhoh, something's going on with the consumer Comcast Revenue and profit Top estimates as universal theme park sales sore I Don't think many of you are the biggest Comcast Traders I Just wanted to cover it anyway. Five things to know before that stock market Bell goes Ding ding ding ding ding today Thursday October 26 Before I go into this, you guys need to help me obviously. I'm not your financial advisers. you are my financial advisor.

So as my freebie financial advisers, please tell me, are you bullish or bearish on the day now I Know I Went over a lot of news and we have other things to be going over as well. But honestly, just flipping a coin is probably going to be more accurate than trying to digest the news and be like, well, because of this, that because of that thing. this thing. um so how are you feeling like if you had a flip a quarter how you feeling on the day I see beer interesting and then I see bear.

So maybe a bearish bear? A bearish beer Blood red bear beer beer. Due to the current sentiment, bear bearish bullish GDP was good I'll go bull I'm a unicorn. we have a unicorn in chat. ask me at 10:02 crapface we have to ask Crap Face is declining to answer for about 45 minutes.

Uh, purple sideways a drunk bear Crypto Agree with beer. All right. So you guys are all over the map all right Tech tumbles yeah Microsoft Netflix doing all right the rest of them getting merked fordward movement. the Union Auto Workers United Auto Workers yeah the UAW maybe come into an agreement first pick Morgan Stanley has named its next CEO uh Ted pick will succeed James Gorman I Know we're all all big into knowing who's going to be the next CEO So there's that news.

Uh Mega Meta Revenue So Meta Crushed on its earnings. but it's guidance. It's forward-looking guidance Not so Bueno spoken for so we're talking about Mike Johnson Big old Johnson from Louisiana is the new speaker of the house? Um so I covered this in more detail in the update video. Speaking of the update video, why are you dy's not watching it? Do you guys just what? Only like me in the morning in the I guess like confusing gray sun coming up and your eyes are kind of a little groggy like almost in your like uh, post- wake up confusion is that the only times you like me and then like by the end of the day when your head's a lot more clear, you're like I don't need to watch Matt anymore.

What? What's the deal? Why? Why are you guys not watching the update videos? Uh, live content is best. No, your content is best. uh people like Matt not many I think my mom says she does but she just doesn't Uh no notification I'm busy. Oh you're busy.

Oh oh sorry evil Fandango is busy doing some evil devil stuff because he's so evil, some satanic warship and he you know take a break from drawing pentagrams in your Cellar floor and just watch the video. How about that post not Clarity We're going to end it on that one. Oh one more yeah. FTX s Bakman freed uh will be I guess defending himself which the only assumption I could come up with that is that they finally got him some adderal so he can I guess be competent enough to speak for himself I suppose I don't know other things to pay attention to Israel latest Army briefly raids Gaza as air strike continues.

So let's give this a little listen. What needs to be done right now is to deal with the the context as it is uh in this particular moment obviously with sensitivity towards the Grievances, but with a recognition that Israel has a right to defend itself, that there is a severe humanitarian crisis uh in Gaza Um, and that there is an effort to you know, to get humanitarianism and diplomatic efforts to avert a wider Middle East conflict intensifying as cutter hints at breakthroughs and hostage release negotiations with Hamas the US pressing Gulf allies to help clamp down on a suspected increase in fundraising for Kamas Calling a special meeting to prevent more deadly attacks a Treasury official saying quote This Moment should bring a profound sense of urgency Clarity and purpose to the work that we do. The ability to act to cut off the financial flows that feed terrorism is a duty we all share. Joining us now is the one and only Amry herder in Washington DC Amory Starting there, we also heard about a conversation uh through the Saudi Prince uh, Muhammad B Salman and President Biden which is highly unusual.

What's the latest in the US Actually, before we get into this, did you guys see that Gavin Nome was meeting with President xiin ping of China I think President? Wait, where did they meet? Did did X come to the US like was he in California Also, this is a tough question. Who do you think is a worse human being? Gavin Nome or Justin Trudeau I Know that's a tough one and I know you guys don't like tough questions this early in the morning. I mean heck, the Market's not even open. but I'm going to do it cuz I know you guys already got up early so your brain's already stimulated.

you're probably on your fifth. T cup of coffee. Who do you think's a worse person? Gavin or Trau people are saying Nancy Pelosi Pelosi wasn't an option. You guys can't There's no Rins for this question.

It's one or the other. You guys can't You're not allowed to come up with your own both. Once again, not an option. you have to pick pick one.

That's the point of like the challenge Chau but it's close. Gavin Gavin Hillary You guys are now saying Hillary not an option. Stop picking people who are not options to the question Mitch M what is going on you had J pink Smith she probably slept with both of them. His attempt to saave off a regional conflict I've never seen new Remember this was an individual that President Biden when he was campaigning, said he wanted to make a pariah.

Um, now the US really sees Saudi Arabia as an ally in the region and especially when it comes to this conflict because the United States is continuing their frenetic diplomacy as our other world leaders. Because what world leaders want to make sure is that this conflict stays isolated within Israel and Gaza. They do not want to see this widening and spreading. So not only did we have that phone call yesterday of between President Biden and Muhammad Bin Salon, but also we have Emanuel Mcon who's leaving Israel visiting Egypt Today we have the Austrian Chancellor to Israel.

We have the Czech Prime minister going to Israel so you can see this flurry of diplomacy is not stopping. This is top of mine of world leaders. They want to make sure that they can contain this crisis. And course we heard from the Qari Foreign Minister they seem to be making Headway when it comes to hostages.

That seems to be a main focus as well for global leaders. how much is Israel Listen When it comes to all of this is Biden Directly talk with the Is government to try to maneuver in all of this. Well, of course we have President Biden holding a number of phone calls since the October 7th Massacre with his counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu. He obviously made that trip there and US officials are talk publicly.

Us officials will say they are offering intelligence. Obviously the US is stand shoulder with Israel. they've made that clear. But what we have reported is that European and US officials have been pressuring Israel to slow down any ground Invasion until they could potentially made Headway when it comes to hostages.

When President Biden was asked about a ceasefire, he said we need to get those hostages out first, then come talk to me Emory Thank you So wait, wait I Wanted to listen to her say what needs to as our other world leaders because what world leaders want to make sure is that this conflict stays isolated within Israel and Gaza They do not want to see this widening and spreading so not visiting Egypt Today we have the Austrian Chancellor going to Israel. We have the Czech prime minister going to Israel so you can see Biden and Muhammad bin Salon. But also we have Emanuel Mcon who's leaving is between President Biden and Muhammad bin Salon. But also we have Emanuel Mcon who's Emanuel Mcon uh em Maon and Muhammad Bin Salman.

But also we have Emanuel Mcon who's Emanuel Mcon dude crushed it but also we have Emanuel Maon who's dude dude just rolls off the tongue Salon But also we have Emanuel Mcon who's Emanuel Mcon like she went became a native speaker for a second between President Biden and Muhammad bin Salon. But also we have Emanuel Mquan who dude dude dude nailed it. absolutely abely nailed it I actually and I don't even know what was said in that clip now cuz I was so fascinating with that pronunciation I'm jealous you guys are calling me out you I am jealous I wish I could there's a lot of words I wish I could pronounce and dude I feel like I am very very jealous I'm not trying to hide that from anyone. uh I'm going to be spending all dude.

Why does anyone know how to get rid of these? These are no, no get down. Why are these popping up Now This is annoying. How do I stop? How do I get rid of those stupid alerts? Is it here? Notifications: How does anyone know? First person who tells me how to get rid of those alerts will in fact receive a gold star. I'm I'm not messing around I'm not I will tell me how to turn them off.

Someone tell me how to turn them off and you will be getting a gold star I'm not playing around Alt F4 I Don't feel like that's right. Alt F4 once again, not right. Turn off your computer uninstall settings all F4 Stop telling me to do Alt F4. Stop telling me to unplug.

None of you are getting gold stars. You're not tricking me with that one. Click on alerts off. Where is the alerts? Click on alert alerts.

alert. What is this copy link? Nope. You guys are Control alt Delete. Stop being cheap.

Throw your computer out the window Hammer Alt 69 It's a idiot error an It1 an Id10t Control alt delete Alt F4 you guys are I don't know why I do this I don't like I Just all day I Just jump through hes I'm looking at my alerts but those are Trading alerts uh what is the notifications? Comments: boosts, Mentions follows Streams Notifications: uh, this is all like with the stuff you could PA Minds Nope, it's not under that. uh, is it under Can I find out in what's new what's new? Draw irregular shapes no Australian Securities Exchange brings its Futures data to trading view rectangle data drawing now in the middle draw raw separate data for Forex Trading View joins forces with the United National Distance Education University Trading View Product Update: I Mean there's literally a gold star on the line and you guys are just like you're rather you're trolling me. Instead, you're like current settings EV Chart Settings Events Bob Bob You You could always settings. Wait, what did you say? Chart settings and then events.

Chart settings Settings Chart settings Events apply to all Bob Bobby Boy Bobby Boy Bobby Boy Bob gets the gold star. So for all of you who were trying to make jokes at my Peril Bob is the person who's actually getting to laugh because as all of you are going throughout your day, maybe a little bit too light, just a little bit too much of a bounce in your pocket. Understand that you're the big loser here because Bob is not moving around in such a light mood because he a fat gold star around his neck holding him down. So you guys I I hope you enjoyed your one to two minutes of laughs and Haas and he Hees But the real winner here is Bob Bob gets the gold star and he's going to be dangling that thing off his neck for decades to come.

So ask yourself, was it really worth it? Was it really worth it to pick on me for a little bit as Bob gets to live in eternal glory. Listen, I only did it because it pisses me off at the same time. Well Bob you and I are cut from the same cloth and now you have a gold star to prove it. So congratulations that is resume worthy I if you put it on your LinkedIn I will support it like you know how you could be like you vote on it Bob gets a gold star Bob gets a gold star and none of you guys got one today.

that's for sure. That's for freaking sure. You're lucky I actually didn't start slinging out Dem merits that's how close I was. that's how close I was I just didn't do it cuz I know you guys don't want me to get so angry so early in the morning.

It's not good for my blood pressure, but we were there we were. We were getting close to the demerit level. Why does LinkedIn have 19k employees I don't know I think LinkedIn is just like does anyone actually use LinkedIn like I know people use it but I don't like I don't find it to be actually useful. There's a very different, big big difference between people using it and it being useful.

Ban: Bob We Can't Ban Bob He has a gold star. he basically has like an idol on Survivor where even if I wanted to ban ban him, he could just throw out the gold star and be like actually you can't Uh, he basically has a get out of jail free card which actually oddly enough I've been speaking with recent law enforcement gold stars on this channel can legitimately be used for getting out of jail for free. Um per gold star that you have regardless of the crime. Um, we're not necessarily fully in the US but we're in a lot of places within the US.

So Bob If you ever get in legal trouble, uh, feel free, give it a try. Try to use the gold. Shar There's a statistically there's a high chance that it will actually get you out of jail. Monopoly Oddly enough, it actually it can't be used in monopo.

it. It can be used in the actual legal jail system, but not in the board game. Monopoly How weird is that? You know how weird is that? Well, on that particular note, dingy ding ding ding. The casin