Oh wow, Welcome to Absolute Chaos I don't necessarily mean this in a literal sense, but I definitely do in a figurative sense. It feels as if you look around anywhere. right now you see nothing but fire in this particular update video. I'm going to be explaining all the current political drama, the insanity of the economy and why the stock market is absolutely cratering Now obviously, before we get into any of that, if you don't know who I am, hey, nice to meet you.

my name is Matt and I definitely have no credentials or pedigree to talk about any of this stuff. so if that's kind of your thing, hey, don't forget to hit the like button. Don't forget to subscribe. And with that being said, let's ride! Oh, by the time the stock market bill went dingy, ding ding ding to Signal the close today October 3rd it was bloody red Dow drops 500 points Tuesday and turns lower for 2023 on interest rate Spike So obviously I want to talk a lot about the stock market and the economy, but before we get to that, I need to give you the most recent updates of the absolute Clown show that is our political system.

House begins Vote That could lead to ouster of speaker Kevin McCarthy Just so you know, this is a little bit of a story in three separate parts. Obviously that's part one, Part Two House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will bring Gates motion to Allison to a vote today Tuesday and it did not take the turn that Kevin McCarthy wanted it to McCarthy loses pivotal vote showing Republican Rebels can oust him as Speaker you might be thinking to yourself, well that happened very quickly. just so you know, for those of you who are maybe a little bit lost by the story over the weekend, the government was about to shut down and between September to October we were about to run out of money. Kevin McCarthy A GOP Speaker of the House made a deal with the Democrats signed into law by Biden 45 days to kind of Kick the Can down the road.

Obviously there's what's being referred to as some like hardliners in the GOP party who do not like that McCarthy made any form of deal with the Democrats and said hey, we don't like that you don't represent the Republican caucus, we want you out This was effort was led by Matt Gates a representative from Florida and all of a sudden he is kind of not only talking the pop talk, but now he's kind of walking the walk. So here's how things currently stand. at least at the time that I'm filming this video. Republican Kevin McCarthy lost a pivotal vote today Tuesday Demonstrating Hardline Conservatives have the power to soon end his tumultuous 10 months as House Speaker His political survival now hinges on whether he can build a last minute Alliance by offering Hefty concessions to Democrats who have refused to help him or strike a deal with his conservative critics.

The House Tuesday voted 218 to 200 Nate to defeat a procedural maneuver by McCarthy and his allies to block a resolution introduced by conservative Firebrand Mack Gates of Florida to oust the speaker 11 Republicans abandoned him a final vote on removing McCarthy could come within two days unless McCarthy resigns first like I said that went from 0 to 100 very very quickly. So obviously by the end of this week at the start of October here we're gonna have a continuation of updates that obviously is going to cause a little bit of volatility not only in the political world, but obviously in the market as well, so make sure you're paying attention to it. Speaking of all the craziness in the world of politics, I Have an update related to the former President Trump for you Trump Fraud Trial Live updates Trump says he's attending trial to quote unquote, expose the attorney General and apparently he said some things in a way that he maybe the law system says you shouldn't because now he's been hit with a gag order, judge issues gag order order in Trump Fraud trial after ex-president posts about law clerk, former president Donald Trump blasted New York Ag and a New York judge in his top law cook on the second day of the business fraud trial against him and his company. this case should be dismissed according to Trump as he told reporters in a hallway in Manhattan Supreme Court Trump said he will testify in the trial now I Know just from pure Entertainment standpoint: I Wish it would be televised.

It's not going to be televised, so it's a little bit upsetting, but obviously I'm sure we can just listen to him and his testimony and what he's going to say to reporters, because obviously he's gonna probably be popping off left, right, and center. and maybe you agree with him. Maybe you don't agree with him, but at a minimum we could at least all admit that this is going to be a pretty entertaining thing. Fear not, the trials.

Don't stop there. The 8 billion dollar Sam Bakeman Freed Criminal Trial starts today. Here's what at stake and how we got here. Well, I'm sure you know how we got here.

This is what happens when allegedly you commit one of the largest financial crimes ever known to mams. But what's at stake: How about a hundred years a conviction on all counts could land SBF more than 100 years in prison based on what I know of this situation I Think this seems pretty reasonable, but once again, I'm not a lawyer I Don't speak legalese I Don't have a pedigree I Don't have the certificates but just tracking the whole FTX Sam Bateman Freak thing. It seems pretty horrific if you're listening to this part of the video. that means I try to film it with the 60 Minutes clip and then they didn't like it with the MCA so you're gonna have to watch it yourself.

But what you need to know is that Michael Lewis is breaking not only many people's heart, but specifically mine because I thought he was on the side of Reason morals and truth and if anything, it seems like he's now somehow just Shilling for Sam Bateman Freed as if he's some sort of good guy. Here's some of his quotes: He becomes toxic like nobody wants to talk to him. He has no friends. Well, that's what happens when you steal billions of dollars.

There's still a Sam Bakeman free shaped hole in the world that now needs filling. Yeah, no. I Think the world is pretty good. Without absolute scam artists stealing from people, we don't necessarily need to get that job filled once again.

But alas, here's what Community Notes had to say: Sam Bakmanfrid is accused of committing fraud, taking customer funds and using them for personal and political game SPF was orchestrating a massive years-long diverting billions of dollars for of the trading platform's customers funds for his own personal benefit. So once again, this is why people didn't want to talk to him. This is why people didn't want to be associated with them. This is why people you know are generically against the guy because he's not a good guy.

It's really not that tough to add up in somewhat of a comedic twist. Even coffee Zilla is now calling out Lewis's bad take finish reading Michael Lewis's new book so you don't have to. you are not misled by the 60 Minutes interview it's a full out defense of SPF he spends more time questioning the intentions of the bankruptcy lawyer John Ray than he does SBF I'm speechless. A coffee Zilla I Think you, you and the rest of the world.

Unfortunately, this is now going to be a book I'm gonna skip because I don't want to give the guy any money because I don't need to read this absolute trash. Moving on, let's pivot from one sad thing to another sad thing. but I guess this one isn't so sad if you had a bearish position on the market. By the time the market closed today, it was bloody red the overall: Market the S P 500 dropped 1.3 percent while the NASDAQ dropped 1.7 percent.

And as you can see, ever since late July the trend has clearly been down and down and down. and with these major technical breakdowns I Wouldn't be surprised if there's more pain to come. So you might be thinking to yourself, why did this happen And really, the ball got rolling to the downside at 10 A.M ET Today, a half hour into the trading day because we got the Jolt job Openings report that actually came in higher than expected 9.6 million job openings and the forecast was 8.8 Now you might be thinking to yourself, wait a second more jobs. That's good.

But remember we currently live in the upside down Kind of like stranger things and the reason we're doing that is because inflation is high. So the FED is doing everything in its power to bring down inflation. and one of the tools they have at their disposal is to lessen demand. So all of a sudden, if they're seeing strong economic signals, the market is interpreting that to mean uh-oh That means that the Fed's Hat's going to be even more aggressive in fighting inflation because demand's clearly not coming down.

Which means inflation is still there. So basically, the whenever we get a good economic report, the market gets worried that the Fed the Central Bank led by Jerome Powell is even going to be more aggressive To the downside. So that's a pretty high level Tldr on this situation. U.S job openings top all forecasts as white collar positions jump.

Once again, we live in the upside down world where a good economic report is actually going to be bad for the stock market, and that's exactly what we saw today. You're right guy. This was not what the markets were expecting and probably not what the Fed was expecting or wanted to see. As you noted, we've gone up, uh, in terms of job openings by 690 000 to over 9 million.

Again, that is a significant increase for the Joltz report. Job openings and labor turnover hirings. Uh, the number of people getting hired change. Little is still at about 5.9 million.

so a very stable Uh situation there and then the quit rate everybody's been focused on. The quit rate doesn't change at all. Uh, quits? 3.6 million Pretty much the same as the prior month and that delivers the quit rate unchanged at 2.3 percent. So it looks like at this point employers are still looking for employees and the labor market doesn't seem to be getting any looser.

So obviously job Market's still very, very strong. and obviously right now with the recent reports and there's going to be more between now and the next decision of what to do with the Fed rate. things could change. But in this short period of time, not necessarily looking the best and I have some data to back that up.

So this is the Fed watch tool. These are the chances of the next meeting, the next Fomc meeting Wednesday November 1st. That's when we get the result. Currently, the FED fund rates at 5.25 Obviously, as it goes upward, that is ideally going to lessen demand.

and hey, look around, things are a lot more expensive anything that relates to interest in any way. Well, as of now, there's a 72 chance that it remains unchanged, but this 27-28 chance of a quarter hike a 25.25 This is slowly but surely Rising as as more data is coming in. just want to point that out. Another thing I want to point out is how bonds are absolutely vomiting on the year bonds.

The TLT 20-year treasury bond down almost 17. This is important because bonds getting absolutely crushed is what this year alone costs. Two of the three largest bank blow-ups ever known in U.S History Pointing that out. The other thing I want to point out is how the 10-year yield is now up 25.2 percent on the year doing nothing but going absolute Rip City This is going to make things difficult and these are some of them right here.

The 10-year note yield is now up 440 basis points from its low in March of 20.. just about every move of this size, many of which were smaller, resulted in some sort of a crisis dating back to the 1980s. So just to touch on a couple of them in the 1987 when we saw this type of a move, we got a market crash. 1990s we had a recession.

You had an Asian crochet, it's a tech Bubble Burst Uh, 2018 Global sell-off and now what are we gonna potentially call this one? I Know that maybe this is a little bit too much of History Maybe too much of a high view. so let's bring it home a bit more. Mortgage rate races towards eight percent after hitting a high not seen since late 2000.. if you're currently in the housing market looking to buy, I Feel for you because these monthly payments are painful and it's not the only part of real estate that is being negatively impacted.

Severe crashes coming for U.S Office properties. When you're talking about corporate real estate, that's the thing that a lot of people are trying to sound the alarm on because it's not going the direction it should be. At this point, you might be thinking wow, wow, seems pretty bad. how worried should I actually be? And fear not I actually have some good news from you.

This is from the Treasury Secretary Gollum herself Yellen Very optimistic about outlook for U.S Economy Talk about bad takes here. I was thinking that Michael Lewis's bad take was the worst one I was gonna see today and then I came across this little gem of yelling just basically saying random things and I don't know what cheeks, but does she really think that we're all this stupid? Anyway, moving forward in the description of this video you can sign up for my newsletter. It comes out every week. It is free just want you to know that I basically give a breakdown of what happened the past week and what I'm looking to the next week and then from there.

I Give you, uh, kind of nut one place where you can find a lot of important information such as the upcoming weeks major macro economic events for Wednesday October 4th I Hope you're watching this in time at 8 15 in the morning ET We're gonna get the ADP non-farm roll employment change on Thursday the normal initial jobless claims and then I'm Friday This week it's the first Friday of a new month, so we're going to be getting the unemployment rate. Important to pay attention to all those because those are all pieces of data that the Feds can be using at the next Fomc meaning to decide what to do with the FED fund rate. Obviously, we have some earnings I Think the major one people are going to be paying attention to because we're not really in earning season is going to be tilray. Then we have a bit of a seasonality update once again: I Give this all away for free on Wednesday It does strongly favor the Bulls I Know things seem crazy right now, but from a seasonal standpoint Wednesday October 4th if you look at the past 25 years worth of data, the Bulls have won three quarters of a Time 73 percent of the time with the Sky High profit Factor The bias is obviously bullish.

This is by no means a guarantee, but I just want to know whose favor the deck is stacked in. Obviously, here's Thursday Neutral Friday is bearish and then I give you an update on the option strategy from the previous week. but you probably want the option strategy for today. Just so you know.

Well, the Spy did close out at 4 21 59 while the queues are at three. We'll call it 55 and what you need to know here is I actually gave four different call outs that all hit. So thus far on the week we are now seven out of seven and today alone four out of four. So this one right here a spy call Credit spread.

So obviously you were selling the 428 so to get all the money you needed it below 428 which it obviously was and then I also did a put credit spread which needs you needed above 419. obviously above 419. Moving on to the cues, another call Credit spread needed it below 362. it was below 362 and then obviously on the other side the put side needed above 353.

that one was a little bit closer but it obviously still hit. So thus far in the week, seven for seven out of the day we are four for four. If you're interested in this once again, it's the same place. You could get the newsletter, math Course.locals.com That's what I have for you now I Hope to catch you in the Stream tomorrow morning 9 A.M Bright and early if you want to see the live show.

but hey, if you dislike these update eight videos I Do appreciate your time. thank you so much I'll catch you in the next one.