Oh my God foreign foreign. my apologies, my apologies, my apologies I was on time I just was streaming to a different stream key so there was like I ran the whole intro and that was pretty awkward. so uh, sorry about that I think it's even probably is it up on Twitter now I was like even talking to myself for a little bit I was like okay, like what's uh, what's what's going on here? um super super awkward. Let me get rid of all that.

but uh yeah, no. we started the show I didn't see many people talking or anything and I thought you guys didn't um didn't want to hang out with me today but honestly I would fully understand why you would make that decision. I've just been having one of those days and it's weird because like the day started off pretty strong I was feeling pretty good. the Market's making a good recovery.

the options premium strategy that I posted in locals that's gonna print today. for every single contract you chose to engage with that you'd be making twenty dollars so not a bad deal if you did five of those risking 80 bucks each with about a 70 75-ish percent accuracy rate you would have made made some good money. Um, so that's looking good. I'm excited for this week going to the primary debates.

The Republican primary debates heading out tomorrow. I will be doing the morning show. Uh, but everything theoretically should be looking up. they should be looking out.

I mean heck I have a kitten on my lap right now Piper's just sleeping. she's just chilling. She's here. she's tired.

She doesn't really want to make a camera appearance, but theoretically everything should be good. you know, like across the board. but I noticed things were getting a little bit wonky I had to call my health insurance provider from back when I was a corporate person and there's still problems with that I'm like yeah, no like I don't work there anymore. they're like but you're on the files I'm like yeah, but I don't work there So like whenever you talk to health insurance especially if I'm if there's any people watching right now that are not from the US Uh, it runs a little bit different here so that was frustrating.

and I was like okay, not enough to upset my day. And then I looked at the Piper code I was like well, this is weird The Piper code should have about a 50 hit rate and I looked at it and it was oh for six I was like well, that's no bueno that that doesn't even make sense. how could it be Oh for six like that. Statistically, what are we talking about that's one over two to the sixth power that that just simply doesn't make sense to not have a winner.

And then I noticed the weirdest phenomena. and you're gonna run into these issues if you are all ever trying to do automated systematic trading which I implore everyone to do. I was running the paper trading account that was writing the code and then the actual account with actual money just to make sure it was like perfectly in line with each other that the theory was close to reality of buying at the same point selling at the same point I Wanted the theory of perfect numbers I.E paper trading to be the same as what's going on in reality and I noticed that When I close the chart and reloaded the chart on the same time frame referring to the paper trading account. It was different.

the trades that it said it took in the morning it was no longer taking and I thought to myself what in tarnation? well that makes no sense So I called up the Brokers and I'm like Hey brother, brother, what's the deal and they're like, well, you have to understand when you're pack testing code, new information could alter the results of the back test. I'm like, well, let's think about that for a second. Let's say hypothetically it's 9 30 in the morning I Take a trade I Get out by 9 31. in at 9, 30 out at 9 31 and the code agrees on that.

You're saying later, perhaps per chance at lunchtime when I re-run the code, it will now decide if it doesn't want to take that code. He's like, well, it's new information but I'm like, let's think about that, That doesn't make sense because all the back testing should just be done on information up until you want to trade and any new information. Well, that's in the future. So no new information should be altering what you are or aren't doing.

That doesn't make sense and the guy wasn't getting it at all. He's like, no, no, no, there's new information I was like, yeah, but it's past the trade. So why would information pass the trade be altering the trade? Because if we think about this, in reality, if you were trading the signal, the signal would already be there to enter and there to exit. So why would future information why would lunchtime information be altering the entry and exit of a morning trade And he wasn't getting it.

He, he wasn't getting it. He wasn't getting it whatsoever. Uh, back testing runs with the new information? Yeah, I Understand that. But for a trade, the entry in the exit.

it shouldn't be altered by information past the exit. If there's something that occurs past the exit, it should not be impacting that code. Speaking of code, Piper's code just fired. Um, so I was thoroughly confused I was thoroughly confused I was thoroughly confused.

Let's say the best way I could explain it. Let's say you get a signal to go long at 9 30 and to close the position at 10. AM you're in it for a half an hour. Okay, cool.

Theory matches one thing the actual trade should be there as well. You enter at 9 30, you get out at 10. great theory and practice match. You shouldn't go away to lunch and get yourself some.

Texas Roadhouse come back, refresh the page and it's like you know what now that we have information past 10 AM uh we're gonna pretend that you never even took that trade at 9 30. that's Monday morning quarterbacking. that's looking at how things played out and being like I think I would have actually done that differently. It doesn't make sense.

You should only be running up to the current trade data and basing all the trade bit of that because to my best of knowledge you you shouldn't know what's going on in the future. So um I got particularly frustrated and I was trying to explain that and the guy was explaining to you just he was not getting and I I asked him I was like are you a Trader and he's like no I don't trade I was like so you've never traded him he's like no I was like are you a software engineer He's like no no I was like have you ever written a trading system he's like no no So I'm like oh so I'm talking to someone who doesn't know code, has never traded, and has never algorithmically trading and he's trying to tell me while I'm wrong, he's trying to explain it to me he and I was like dude, this doesn't make sense what's going on So alas, I did the only thing I could do I did the only thing a reasonable person in my situation would do I hung up the phone call as calmly as could be I cracked the Celsius I chugged the thing and I said yo Piper We got some work to do Piper put on her little school backpack. she's a cat. she doesn't have opposable thumbs.

she can't carry stuff so she has to put it in her bag I was like we're going into the lab I call this the lab. She likes it. She's a bit of a scientist herself so it works I'm like we're going to the lab So I spent the past three to four hours of my life with Piper on my lap and I dove into the code I was looking at the zeros and ones as if I was in The Matrix myself and I think I might have found a fix. In fact, I might have found two different separate fixes that could fix the system itself.

Now will it be the fix? I don't know. It's tough because this particular issue, this particular bug, this particular thorn in my side, is only present when you're trading In reality, back testing won't tell you it because back testing is quote unquote perfect and it runs on perfect data. So the issue I'm trying to overcome right now is exclusively in the world of reality. That thing that tells us if we're actually making money or not making money.

so I don't know I Just took a trade right now. You guys heard the Oh Brother and this might be the first profitable trade of the day. I Have no freaking clue. Like you guys, you're as good as anyone to tell me if if it's actually working or not.

I don't even know what's going on right here. Buying, Selling Selling buying. I'm I'm confused I'm it says it matches I don't know if it matches or not it's pushing. It tells me I'm up money.

but dude. I I don't know I don't know. It's so it went from being seemingly a pretty solid day to like. Now it's just a questionable day.

But on that note, I do have some important things to relate to all of you. My apologies for starting on the wrong stream. My apologies for not getting into the nitty-gritty of what you guys want. I Know that none of you come here to see a cute kitten who could code better than the rest of us and is a whiz kid.

In the world of the market, you would rather a bag of mayonnaise. Basically spend 20 minutes ripping through the major news of the day. I Know why you come here? You? You don't come here. Do I account for a slippage brother of of course I Do I count for slippage? I account for commissions I even account for being in out of shape loser I code that in I put in a Boolean flag which for those of you who are Intruders Traders it's a true or false and the flag itself says are you a fat loser and I put equals true I even account for that.

There's in fact I think I might account for too many things. You know we'll We'll see how it goes, but it I I attempt to account for it all. Uh Ivan Are you a fat bag of mayonnaise and a loser with a completely true girlfriend? I account for that I set that as true as well. And here we are here.

We are discrepancies across the board, but that's going to be that's going to be the name of my Memoir One of these days, The discrepancy? No discrepancy. So anyway, on that note, there are some things we should talk about. So first of all, Market is making a nice uh, kind of a Nike check mark recovery. On the day we pushed a little bit, we came down.

we bounced off of the low from two trading days ago Thursday and we made a big recovery. Remember my one trade idea of the day was selling a 437 put, buying a 436 put. had a this happened early this morning around 10 a.m 10 15 in the morning. had about a 75 chance of accuracy and as we're going into close, as long as we conclude the day over 437, it'll be in the money.

So everyone who took it roughly making about 20 congratulations to you math worked out in your favor didn't necessarily work out in my favor today. NASDAQ Rises For the first time in five days as Tech shares climb yeah Market's looking good the Spy vomited, vomited vomiting. we have a classic Valley pivot setup. Uh, we had one of these previously AKA Monday the 14th.

So are we going to be reporting re like I Guess repeating last week Maybe this was a pretty strong thing. a recovery above a trend line. Maybe we bounced, we didn't but who knows. maybe the second third time's the charm.

This is the classic reversal. Uh, did I just make money on that? Um, no he says questionably I don't know I really don't know what just happened there dude folks I don't know what's going on? Don't ask me what's going on I'm I'm as confused as you are. Honestly, the only one who probably knows what's happening right now is Piper herself, so let's just let's just show. Anyway, could be a classic recovery bounce right here.

I Like this setup: I Like to call it a valley basically This Bar In the middle, the bar to the left, the bar to the right has both a higher height and a higher low I like to call that a valley setup obviously on the other side you have a peak setup where the one in the middle, the left, the right, the high is lower and the low is lower. So that's a peak setup. This is a valley setup. Could be a nice recovery.

The real test will be the break and close above 441.43 the high from Thursday August 17th. So I'm very much going to be watching that tomorrow. Obviously Tech had a pretty good day. The other sector is not so much.

but Nvidia Ripping ripping into its earnings announcement after the market closes on Wednesday Tesla doesn't have any earnings come up, but it's been really really beat down so making a pretty solid recovery there now. I Know you guys come to me for the best financial advice in the entire world. So I thought I would share this from another amazing financial advisor. The punishment for stealing 5K in Canada is a 2K fine.

Follow me for for more financial advice. This is not mine but I thought it was pertinent to share with all of you. when I see good information, when I see high quality, positive expected value I want to share it with all of you and in reality this is. This is a really good understanding of what could happen.

So let's say let's say in certain circumstances you can get 5K In other circumstances you can lose too will. The net gain is three. This is a nice trading system. In this trading system.

your net ahead 3K per trade. So I figured if you're in Canada you might want to use this. If not, it was a good teaching moment. Treasury yields hit.

High Since 2007 on elevated rate fears as it yields going up bonds going down. People concerned about inflation, monetary policy, and basically saying they think they're going to keep the interest rate pretty freaking. Sky High The U.S Bond market selloff resumed on: Monday Driving 10-year yields to a 16-year high as a persistently resilient economy economy has investors positioning for interest rates to remain elevated even after the FED winds up its hikes, the moves push up yields on typical treasuries as well as those provide extra payouts to cover inflation, signaling that investors are bracing for the risk that monetary policy will remain elevated. Are they right? Are they wrong? I Don't know I Give it about a 50 50 shot, half about 50 of the time.

They're right all of the time. Now this might be a little bit concerning to you. Not the best sign for the piper. What's up? You want to say hi? You want to say hi to everyone up? Nope.

She just ran away cheap. Piper Nope. That's a lot of wires. so she just woke up from her nap.

Say hi, say hi to everyone. She's looking at herself over there. She doesn't really get the concept of ego yet and object permanence and she's also fascinated with shadows. Do you want to snap again? Do you want to snap a little? Uh, she's tired.

No, she wants to go. Maybe she's hungry. Anyway, as her psychology is developing and she's learning a little bit more about object permanence, it's time for us to learn about mortgages. Mortgage rates hit their highest point since the year 2 000.

that's do you guys realize that's over two decades ago It realize how far that is away? 2 000. That was a mere lad. but apparently mortgage rates are freaking Sky High So if you're in the world, uh, I feel I feel bad for you. But hopefully it does return to normality somewhat soon.

So why is this all happening? Why are things going like just buck wild right now? It's because of Pal Jerome Powell the head of the Fed, the head of the central Bank here in the U.S and Jackson Hole not Jackson Hole that's a different dude Jackson Hole is a place Jackson Hole And these two things get conflated quite a bit. but I Just want to make it clear: Jerome Pal has nothing to do with Jackson's hole Jerome Powell The chairman of the FED has everything to do with Jackson Hole One is a dude's hole, the other one is a place. so just want to I Want to clarify that? But anyway, it's going down this week. We should be hearing from it on Friday in late August Which means we're headed to Jackson Hole for Kansas City Fed's annual Symposium attended by the top Central Bankers from around the world and as usual everyone is wondering in particular just what Fed chair Jerome Powell might have to say.

The last time in this happened, we had a big red day in the market and things continue to sell And sell and sell the U.S Central Bank Just published minutes of its July policy meeting and the record showed that at the time most Fed officials saw significant significant upside risk to inflation, which in turn may require even more tightening as in continuing to be hawkish as in continuing to put downward pressure on demand and thus negative bearishness in the market. On the other hand, two also favored holding rates steady marking the first real hint of disco agreement over the way forward, and we've that we've seen in quite some time, so we should theoretically get better and more insights to this within a couple days. Friday we're going to be streaming it. You better be here.

You don't want to miss out on it. but here's what Bloomberg had to say: Jackson Pollock Jackson Hole next week next week Uh, Jackson Hole at Jacksonville it's actually going to be two two points of focus. It was really come down to Powell to be on message. don't really think that we're going to have, We're going to hear a big change in narrative.

We're getting a Fed that was hawkish and raise rates very substantially. What is the Fed ultimately looking for? They're likely to take a look at that Supply demand imbalances in labor markets to decide how much more, if at all, they need to adjust the overnight fed funds rate higher, lean onto into a hawkish bias. Still, A Fomc participants should be looking at the last three months worth of data. The FED has done so much already in terms of delivering those hikes.

These are not going to be kind of near-term policy decisions of what they may do with rates next month rate hikes After the September meeting, Maybe the FED doesn't need to hike. We are not certain that the last hike is behind us. The FED keeping rates higher for longer, the FED will have to be more aggressive, raising rates higher and keeping rates higher for longer I Think you get the point. A bunch of freaking nerds now.

I Get it. We're nerds too because you tuned into this show and you're like, okay, what's going on in the market I Want to learn about it? But you're a cool nerd. They're just nerd nerds. So like we're the kind of nerds who pick on those nerds because we're cool, awesome nerds who like, once in a while, we don't turn in our homework on time, opposed to those nerds who always turn their homework in on time.

Got him? Anywho, as of now, there's about an 86 percent chance of no rate change at the September meeting. Once again, this is late September about a month from now and there's about a 13 chance of another 25-bip rate increase. The only reason I'm bringing this up is so we have something to compare to after the Jackson Hole meeting and the speech from Pal this Friday So right now, 86 percent chance of nothing and there's about a 40 35-ish percent chance between now and the end of the year. One more rate hike of 25 bips.

Now you might be thinking to yourself, when all this happens with all that volatility and we know it, you're an amazing Trader Of course you're going to crush it. Of course you're going to make loads of money. What are you going to be doing with that money? Well I Want to talk about this I Want to give you a suggestion of what you should buy? Rolls-Royce Debuts Drop Tail Roadster Priced at over 30 million, only four of the ultra customized two-seater will be made. so obviously super low demand.

Super low. Supply Really high demand Rolls-Royce has unveiled the latest of its exclusive coach built series The Roll Royce Drop Tail The Rolls the Rolls-Royce Drop Tail the coach built series of the Rolls-Royce Drop Tail I'll take two Yeah, you will see I appreciate that. Inspired by high-speed sailing Yachts of the 1930s, the Roadster seats too and comes with removable hardtop made from carbon fiber and a electrochromatic glass that alters the amount of light entering the interior at the touch of a button. Specific pricing on the vehicle has not been announced, but it's estimated to cost more than 30 million I Think the car looks pretty cool.

What? I personally spend 30 million? No, but that's because I don't have 30 million dollars if I did. Maybe it's something I would consider, but really I Want to bring up this about a Rolls Royce to see your thoughts. Would you buy if you had the money? Would you buy this car? Maybe you're just not a car person at all I thought it was cool looking, but I would have to have a lot of money to then spend 30 million on this. like I'd have to have like a billion dollars to not really care that much about 30.

So I wanted to share it, but you know who has no issue affording it. Alex Greco Quad Trader doubles Fortune to 11 billion as Xdx profit surges. Talking about nerds. sometimes it pays to be a nerd.

XTX Holdings Paid a record 1.6 billion dividend in April Gurko. now almost as wealthy as Millenniums Izzy Englander Like I said, sometimes it pays to be a nerd. A former Deutsche Bank AG Trader is rapidly amassing enough wealth in the Fallout from volatile interest rates and inflation to rival some of the richest billionaires in finance. Alex Gurko's Fortune has surged to 10.8 billion after the holding company of his quantitative trading firm XTX markets paid out a record 2 billion USD dividend to its owners earlier this year.

XTX also increased profits more than 50 percent, helping to roughly double the 43 year olds net worth. Gurko, who controls the majority stake in XTX is now the world's 182nd richest person. Not a bad year to be him. Gurko's Swift Ascent among the world's Ultra Rich positions him as an increasingly influential figure in the markets.

XTX handles almost 300 billion in Daily volume across equities Commodities currents and fixed income markets. His booming Fortune has already earned him the title of UK's biggest taxpayer and helped him fund donations to educational initiatives worldwide. One more time, his booming Fortune has already earned him the title of UK's biggest taxpayer. This guy's the big big hackspace in all of the UK and it's basically because he's really, really, really good with numbers.

The haul out Xdx to pay out most of its record dividend in April to a Cayman islands-based entity that Gerko controlled a little bit susp, but hey, that's probably how everyone does it at that level. Gurko, a Russian native, is a British Citizen and a UK tax resident. He began his Career Training equities at Deutsche Bank before later shifting to Foreign Exchange. He left in 2009 to join the hedge fund GSA Capital where he led currency trading operations before XTX was spun out in early 2015..

So basically he's been running it for eight years now and it's made them stupidly wealthy. The Firm He built takes its name from a mathematical formula used in its trading algorithms and seeks to automate as many processes as possible while using statistical models to analyze trillions of noisy observations. So you've probably heard this name before because I've spoken about him because he's used his platform and knowledge of the world of trading and essentially his pure genius to call out certain market makers like Ken Griffin So I highly recommend you look into them I very much look up to him I've never spoken to him I have no personal relationship with him, but he's the kind of guy who even though he's an Insider to this world, he will happily call out market makers and use math and reasoning and logic in his position to argue for and fight for a better Marketplace and structure for all of us. so that alone I'm gonna look up to him and then seeing that not only he does that, but is also just a killer at training.

Uh, I Very much appreciate what he does and I would aspire to be at this level one day so just wanted to share the 11 billion dollar success of Alex Gurko, an amazing quad trainer, so just wanted to share all that now for the remainder of this week. I Want you to know existing home sales comes out tomorrow 10 a.m But really everything's going to be going down at 10 A.M on Friday August the 25th. That's when we're going to be listening to Pal at the Jackson Hole Symposium he's going to be talking about Jackson Hole itself and we'll We'll see what's going on there. So just wanted to talk about everything going down this particular week.

Zoom is reporting after the market goes dignity ding ding ding in about one minute in video reports after the market closes on. Wednesday With respect to tomorrow, it's another neutral day. Today was a neutral day in terms of seasonality. Tomorrow's a neutral day in terms of seasonality, so not being supported by Tailwinds not being running into any headwinds.

today, tomorrow seasonally neutral changes a little bit when you get to Wednesday Thursday and Friday of this week. but if you want to check that out, it is free on Macquares.locals.com What's not free is some of the trading strategy ideas that I give out and I've been working on a zero DTE strategy and this is the first official one that I posted of it and this was a spy put credit spread. You buy the you sell the 437, you buy the 436 so you want it above 437 at the time of expiration and look at that. the market just closed and we ended up closing at 439.33 Which means that this only cost 80 to get into the position.

Uh, and it yielded 25. not a bad like 25 yield. That's actually pretty good in the world of premium and the accuracy of the strategies in the realm of 70 to 75. So for even though you risked 80 bucks with a 75 accuracy, this just paid for two months of Locals which is what you're looking at right here so it is pinned to the top of chat.

It is in the description of the video Maccourse.locals.com If a month goes by that I don't paste it, post a trade in here that would pay for the monthly service as in ten dollars. I'll refund everyone you have my word and right here, this month's already done. and technically we're already done for the month of September because it made you 20 bucks. But hey, I'll give you another one in the month of September and I'll be posting stuff like this at minimum three times a week, potentially all the way up to five times a week.

But I'm working on other strategies and right now I just feel very comfortable with this zero DTE Options trading strategy. But as you can see, I posted this many, many hours ago. so if you want this stuff, this is the premium. It's ten dollars a month, a hundred dollars a year I can give you the stats I can give you the facts I could give you the figures I'll be posting it in here um I put estimate because it depends on when you did or didn't get in.

But if anything, you could have got a better value throughout the day today. but obviously it ended up being out of the money. Which means you collect the full premium that you sold it for. I.e.y it's called a credit spread.

So if you want this Macquares at Locals.com Pin To the top of chat in the description of the video, this one trade itself just paid for the next two months of your local subscription. On that particular note, the market very nice recovery. The Spy ended up 0.6 The queues ended up 1.6 we had Tech really leading the way Tesla we had Nvidia what else had a really really good. Well, those two had a particularly good day.

Even Coin Carvana had a recovery. Um, so Tech led the way higher. Will it continue? I mean the major thing I'm going to be looking for is this fight getting above and closing above 441.43 tomorrow. Let's see if it can happen.

If not, if it goes below 435.25 I'm looking for another test of 433. in terms of the cues, I'm looking see how it got smacked right here. It tried to get above but it got smacked. It would have been very very bullish to get above whatever this high is for or excuse me 364 31 the high from Thursday I would like for it to close that.

So I'm going to be looking for another test there that my next shot is 436. On the flip side if it gets below and closes below 360. I'm then watching 358 followed by 355. So those are my levels on this bi the Spy those are my levels on the Queue Obviously right after the market closes, we're going to be hearing from Zoom how's Zoom doing in post Market uh nope what is is it? ZM Yeah ZM uh currently up about 0.5 but I don't think the numbers are out and then a little later on this week on Wednesday after the market closes, we're going to be hearing from Nvidia Now a reminder to all of you later on today I will be posting some content Actually on that particular note: I think some videos just got posted.

Uh yes, right here. The easiest way to make money trading. Uh AI Stock trading Uh, remember when I made this? This is the hottest newest video on the Mac course Channel We are 54 Subs away from a thousand there so uh it. we're gonna put it in the description of the video.

we're gonna put it in chat right now but this is live on both YouTube and it's also on Rumble Um so wherever you're watching, if you're looking for something right now, feel free to watch this. It is a I believe it's officially live on both. Uh so feel free to check it out. The easiest way to make money trading AI Stock trading and in this I kind of give you a rundown.

a more specific, more articulate rundown of what is and isn't systematic trading and why you might be interested in it. and if there's demand and watch the video to understand what I'm talking about, if there's demand, the next video I'll do a week from today will be an actual strategy. Me explaining the exact time to get in, the exact time to get out, and the odds of it. the accuracy, the average winning trade, the average losing trade, how many times it traded in a decade, how many times it traded this year if that's something of interest.

If you guys want very specific strategies, it's not like oh hey, like well, you could have done it here and you could have I'm saying like the exact rules of when to get in, the exact rules of when to get out something, that even if this is your first day trading. uh, I want to explain it well enough that literally anyone could do it and then I want to prove it by showing you how it's played out in the past. Um, that will most likely be the video that comes out now next week. but to kind of set up for it, you should check this one out just because it's going to be a little bit of more foundation.

so that's what I have for you. that's out. I'll be posting some extra content tonight on wherever you're watching this now, but I Just want to let you know that this video is officially live on the extra YouTube channel basically the Evergreen Channel and also the OG Rumble channel. So more content coming out tonight so make sure your notifications are on before you leave.

For today, don't forget to smash the like button. Other than that, I hope you guys crush it I Hope you made a lot of money today! I Did not make a lot of money today, but I did find out there was a very big serious issue in my code so hopefully I'll be able to get that all figured out later on. I Appreciate all the Good Vibes Thank you thank you thank you I'll catch you later on today I Hope you have a great evening I'll catch you tomorrow morning 9 A.M Bright and early for the next stream. Have a good one.

Peace out Thank you Foreign.