Foreign, Foreign. Good morning, Good morning, Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, good night. Happy inflation. Day To everyone who celebrates, we're clocking in early today, it's 8 25 a.m and in a mere five minutes, we will be getting the next Consumer Price Index report.

Basically, an important inflation report and we're going to be finding out the Line in the Sand is 3.3 percent. We're going to be finding out if inflation is still coming down. Down down down down. Did we go sideways? Are we going up? Who knows.

I Just know. I'm excited. So join up on the roller coaster. We're going to be having a good one before we get into it.

Pin to the top of Chat in the description of the video is a link to Public.com Matt Cores Basically, you could get a 5.5 yield on your money from the government. If you think the Market's a little sus right now and you want to battle inflation, but not necessarily sure where to put your money, check it out. more on them in a second, but pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video, at least give it a little clickaroo. You know, just see what's going on because it's these types of things that make it possible for me to do this type of stuff day in and day out.

So definitely, uh, show the sponsors a little bit of love I Know you guys already know about Public just because they were one of the first major brokerages against payment for order flow. so I'm sure it's already like on your phones. I'm sure a lot of you already checking it out. So um, check out what they're currently doing with treasuries and we'll talk about that a little bit later.

So folks, we had some inflation reports last night that yes, we will be getting into those. the major one was Disney But we also got some interesting updates from Wynn and Alibaba so we've been talking about those. We have some other just updates of stuff going on in the world so we're going to dive into that. Obviously first thing is really our boy Rick Centelli given us all those inflation numbers and we're going to be seeing what the Market's doing.

Is it going to be going crazy up? Is it going to be going crazy down? It feels like we're gonna have quite a bit of a day and I'm really, really, really happy that we started today early because I spent way too much time last night. Way too much time this morning diving into a piece of information that I shared with all of you. And the information was hey, the first bar, the first opening bar, the first 30 minute bar of the day If we break above, that typically is the day bullish. If we break below, it typically is the day bearish.

Well, I have those odds for you and I was kind of right in that statement. but I think I found even more interesting stuff and just in case I forget to talk about it. The truly interesting piece of data I found was the opening five minute bar, the very next bar. If that pushes upward, as in the second five minute bar of the day, it can't be the third.

It can't be the fourth. It can't be the fifth the very second bar of the day. So you have your opening range five minute bar. If the very next bar pushes higher, the odds of a Green Day are about 57 58.

So to have an eight percent Edge and I'm just talking from that moment to the remainder of the day. that's actually a pretty considerable Edge and I did that over the past five years worth of data from 2018 until now. But anyway I have all of it I'll show it to you. You could look at the data you could see if you find anything interesting that you want to trade off of, but I just wanted to give you a little bit of a sneak peek into.

I Guess the many hours I did not sleep last night because I was too busy coding. but on that news, on that note, let's go over to Rick. Let's get this up there. just so you know, the Line in the Sand is 3.3 Headline year over year.

Uh, month over month. We're looking at 0.2 and 0.2 so these are the numbers to have in your mind. Uh, we are expecting inflation relative to last month to actually go up by 0.3 But anyway, what really what matters is based on expectations. Are we coming in a little long? Are we coming in a little short? A little hot? A little cold? The Line in the Sand this time around, year over year is 3.3 percent.

and we are looking for the month over month to be 0.2 for both core and headline. So those are the numbers. Let's go. let's go.

Let's go. As of now, just for posterity's sake, the Spy is trading at 4 48.28 Let's see if we're going up or down away from the July CPI report and the jobless claims number. Let's just get a look at them. 184 into the print.

The whisper is dovish. I'll quote Andy Brenner and add Alliance Whispers 4.6 for parkour. Uh, maybe 3.1 about 449 Connotations are, uh, pretty muted in that direction, and we've seen the 10-year treasury yield below four percent in anticipation of that 385. That's the level Rick would be watching and some others to see if we're not going to retest the highs give us record in two seconds.

That's all out the win window. Rick Santelli How does it look? Initial reaction was the pop over a dollar? Why? we two tenths of one percent exactly as it core also up two tenths as expected. Okay, what's noteworthy about this. It's the second month we're hitting expectations Revision yet where Core is up two tens.

Which means it's the third up two tens. Since the highs going back to 1981 were established up eight tenths that was in April of 21.. we haven't been at a lower level since February of 2021.. Now let's look at CPI year over year numbers: 3.2 percent coming in.

A little cool. That's bullish inflation coming down in the rear view mirror. and that three percent in the rear view mirror was the low since March of 21. So that's moving in the wrong direction.

And if we look not really. Because the expectation was three. Three important data points. it is an increase relative to last month.

But the expectation was three three. We came in at three ten, one tenth less than the rear view mirror, which was 4.8 which was the lowest since Ock of 2021 and well, at 4.25 Now, even though 3.2 is higher Kelly than the 3.0 in the rear view mirror, there is an asterisk here. the fact that we are expecting a number actually even higher than that at 3.3 because if you look at interest rates, we haven't moved that much. We were basically at 397 and tens right before the number right here.

Consumer Press Index over here. Three, Two Three Three. This is why the market is green right now. arguably like 30.

we're now at 449 30. despise up one dollar because yes, right here. Three Two versus Three three. So the number that was down five Basis point.

Of course, it's not 72. He had another three were down eight basis points if you look at three opening. Equity Futures The Dow futures have improved here. Uh, they're trading well over 2.

uh, 25 on their way to 250.. So the data points: Even though we had that one glitch on year-over-year Headline, it certainly seems to be falling in place and there are a lot of moving Parts here as everybody tries to monitor it broke yesterday's high. It might be quick, a little bit more stubborn on their yields although they've come down. and to those I Just say the following: We have lots of deficits here.

Interest rates are very important. The treasury of course is going to have to wake up last. I looked 1.62 trillion deficit for the first 10 months of this fiscal year. Unbelievable.

and interest on the debt This fiscal year. 10 months in it's already up 15 and a half percent. One five and a half percent Perfect. Those numbers alone should make because definitely be paying not only close attention to interest rates, but also how some of the rating agencies many have dismissed, well, exactly what they may be paying closest attention to.

Kelly Back to You Rick Thank you Oh I'm sorry, yeah please. I'm sorry. claims not not quite as positive Oh My Gosh. 248, 248, 000 and continuing claims: One million, Six Hundred and eighty Four thousand My apologies, Viewers and listeners got so caught up 248 it actually is the highest level.

Believe it or not going to the 240 40s and continuing claims much too well behaved. and maybe that's some of the stigma why interest rates have been a little more stubborn on the long end. One million 684 000. Uh, goes back to the one million 679 that we had in the second week in July We have not been over 1.83 million since the last weekend, so inflation coming in a little bit lower and more initial job.

so the economy is slowing down. To me, this is important to me on many levels. To me, this is actually pretty bullish. So inflation coming in lower than expected and signs that the economies claims than expected.

I'm expecting a bullish debt Michael strain is here. To me, this should be bullish. Angela Hanks is Demos chief of programs and a former Administration The Spy right back to where it started though. got above yesterday joins us from the New York Stock Exchange Everybody Steve I'll just start with you is the most impactful.

What jumps out is the Fed Watchers just took off the month of September completely. Uh, well, not completely. But there had been a 13, 15, 20 probability of a red hiking, food and energy. Four seven versus four nine.

The November hike had been up 30 35 as high as 40 percent. It's now 26. uh for November But they're basically uh, bringing down that probability and I think it's a combination of a little bit higher on the job. Those claims, although you want to be a little careful uh, in the summertime because there are layoffs.

But as Rick pointed out the continuing claims numbers, uh, doesn't go up. So this is a story about what's happening with the job market remains an issue. Um, and then you look at some of the internals on the Uh inflation report. You got that used car decline that people have been talking about.

Um, actually new vehicles were down as well. Uh, I'm surprised. Tick up to what I'm seeing here: Zero five versus zero four. But it's a step down from the numbers that we've had that's owner's equivalent rent, airline fares plummeting eight point one percent month over month readings.

Core headlines: We know they have tickets they're not as fast as it had been coming down, right? Um, and that the FED is willing to sort of let this one at least ride. As long as there's not any particular surge here. the FED has said it's going to be a bumpy road. They don't look for it to be linear as long as we're moving in the right direction.

I think it's going to be okay. We offered this tweet from David Rosenberg this was earlier. This is still a little sticky. You know if CPI rents do Trend Like the recent report from the San Francisco Fed indicated, headline inflation in a year could be half to one point four percent for the court.

Bill Ackman he said is destined to be as offside on treasuries as he was on. Herbalife of course. Michael you remember Bill Ackman had just a little accident ago. Wow, that's hilarious.

Five and a half percent maybe for the 30-year yield? Uh, what's the significance of this morning's data? Michael Uh well. I I'm a little less sanguine about it than than I Think the the Michael is I mean what I see is the second month in a row did he say he was a Penguin core CPI one month. That's crazy. Kind of avoid the problems of of looking generally not how you start.

TV interviews with base effects What do you think Michael Well, first of all, I'm not as much of a penguin as I used to be. ticked up two tenths of a point. uh in July ticked up two tenths of a point in June You know that that, to me, you know, could indicate a downward Trend Certainly, two tenths, uh, per month is less than what we had several months ago. but My worry is that maybe we were at an economy with five percent underlying inflation.

We've now gotten to an economy with four percent underlying inflation Financial Conditions aren't identity and so I don't think we can stay at this level without further interest rate increase. so I Just don't like this guy. It's gonna be the challenge. Uh, and it's not even because of the Penguins it's just something about this.

I'm not sure we see a downward Trend Well, Michael What does that mean though? Thumbs up or thumbs down on this dude. You've just giving me a Vibe I'm not 12 months I'm not a fan. The broader piece: Mr Penguin You know the FED has kind of indicated uh uh comfort with this every other meeting increase uh, pace they might take September off the markets. Might be right about that.

but I think come November if we don't see that 0.2 percent uh uh monthly increase in the core CPI become low energy 0.1 I think in November and going into 2024 I Think the FED is going to want to see evidence that, uh, that underlying inflation is on track to hit its two percent Target I Think they'd be comfortable with that taking six months, they'd be comfortable with that taking a year, but there's a difference between kind of a level downshift and getting stuck at. you know, again, around a four percent underlying pace and a trend back down to two. I The data I Think support go a a shift down to four I'm not sure the data support a trend that looks like it's headed back to two again without some additional tightening and financial conditions. You know, a real deterioration in the labor market Angelo What would you say about all that? Yeah, so that's where I'd love to start.

Um, we saw last week some really strong labor market numbers, so we added 185 000 jobs. Uh, we're finally seeing real wages rise. We saw that in June and July. Um, so I think it's important that we acknowledge a trend there.

and then we're also seeing pretty good inflation numbers today. And so I I think given that the FED just raised rates in July Um, we know that the impact of those July rate hikes we won't see for another couple of months. and I understand that they're trying to get inflation down, but we have to worry about what will happen to the labor market if we go too aggressive on the rake. Heights And so I think we're in this really good place right now where we have 3.5 unemployment.

We have real wages. Rising We have inflation Cooling and we're seeing that consistently month over month. And the other thing that's important to remember is, uh, year over year. This time, last year we saw Peak inflation.

we were at 9.1 percent and in the last year we've gotten down to three percent. And so you know, even as you're looking year over year, it's important to keep in mind that we are sort of moving away from the peak after this month. and so I'm I'm encouraged by these numbers. I Think that it shows that the PED the FED really needs to take a pause, but I'm glad to see a strong labor market and inflation going down.

Yeah, Mike The NASDAQ leading the way looks like pre-market but some green after what's been a string of red really the last six or seven sessions. Yes, uh, not a lot of declines in aggregate, but you know, down about three percent in the S P from its Highs But there has been this sort of grinding downturn. we keep kind of handing the same you know chunk of points back and forth in the indexes. I Do think that you go back to the last: CPI report July Now we're going down.

Yes, he was exactly at today's level. that report last month I Think you've got the real celebration People embraced fully the soft Landing idea. We have disinflation in train. We have a still resilient underlying economy.

Today's numbers are broadly consistent with that, but I think it's just not exactly news. We've had the CPI numbers coming in very close to forecast for months right now, it has pulled a little bit of the drama out of it. At the same time, you have oil prices going up, you have longer term inflation expectations coming off their lower levels of recent months, and so you know I think there's a decent question of whether we're still in The Sweet Spot Uh, in terms of soft landing, and maybe it's just now, the premise and and the AI fever is breaking. So the overall Market All right, these people are boring me a little bit.

I'm too excited about other things going on so we should talk about that instead. Uh, first of all, pin to the top of Chat Show Public. A little bit of love. If you haven't signed up with them yet, Do it.

You can get 5.5 I'll give you the whole Spiel on these guys right around when the Market's opening. but check it out Public.com pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. Once again, Public.com They are the sponsor of today's video and now the Market's going down. Super not cool, brother, super not cool.

Um, so yeah. I just I'm finding this to be surprising because inflation came in less than expected. On top of that, more initial jobless claims than expected. Good signs that the economy is cooling off.

This the fact that the Spy is now going from 449 70 down to 447 and actually looking a little bit weak now I truly find it surprising. but anyway, we're going to be getting into that. There's some other things I want to get into do. Okay, I'll let you guys pick.

Do you want to do? What do you want to do First, the initial Market rundown that we normally do of the update of the macroeconomic events: the earnings, some chart reviews, some seasonality review. Do you want to do that first or do you want to do the code review of like the best opening range breakout to play. Uh, do you want to do the code stuff or do you want to do the because we have enough time I Mean we have 45 minutes. So do you want to start with the rundown or do you want to start with like their nerdy Quant stuff of where there's actually an edge in the market.

People help me, help you, help me help you normal. Update first: Rundown Five things: Okay, it looks like more people are saying I Don't know what are you guys saying? You guys are all over the rumor. sell the news nerd stuff nerdy Edge we're Traders rural code stuff um I think there's more rundowns coming in okay. Stock futures climb ahead of key inflation report.

Well I hope they updated this headline Dow Futures jumped more than 100 points after soft July inflation data. So it jumped. but definitely. Well, now we're all over the map ma'am I Think the market just drunk doesn't know what it's doing Thursday's inflation data as in today may be low, but don't expect the FED to declare mission accomplished yet.

So it did come in low. but once again, they're not going to just be like hey folks hey World we're done doing this. They're not going to say that ever. They're gonna just give us one particular line along the lines of hey, uh, we're happy with our current progress, but we're going to interpret data as it comes to us, so be on your toes.

Essentially, that's the best way to probably wrap up what is or isn't going to be happening with the Fed. So don't expect Jerome Powell to get up there at the next Fomc meeting. Be like hello World We are completely done with rate hikes. That's not how it's going to work.

Not at all if you're joining right now. We did get the CPI report this morning. Inflation is still in terms of magnitude high, but at least we're trending in the right direction. The average Manhattan rent just had a new record of 5.6 k a month.

Why did I move here? You know, Like seeing information like that really makes you wonder what in the world am I doing here Like what? Why? Despite a loss in population during The Rona period, average rent in Manhattan are now at 30 percent compared to 2019. So in about four years we've gone up 30. The average monthly rent in July was 5.6 K up 9 over the last year and marking a new record: median rent at 4.4 K. So basically, when you see median rent considerably less than average, that tells you that there's some serious outliers up to the North side.

Also, hit a new record. along with a price per square foot of 85, It was the fourth time in five months that Manhattan rents hit a record I Don't know why I'm here, but obviously we're seeing and this is just one specific data point. But we're seeing that clearly inflation, especially in the housing rental sector, is as sticky as could be. more sticky than Elmer's Glue You know who could afford it though? UPS Drivers UPS CEO says drivers will average 170k in pay and benefits at the end of of a five-year deal.

That's really good. That's really good you be. I Don't know if we have UPS drivers in here? Um, but they're crushing it. Uh, so congrats to all UPS drivers I Feel you guys deserve it.

It's a super important aspect of our overall economy. This type of delivery service? Uh, but whoever is arguing for the union, they know how to negotiate. What a freaking deal! Ups and Teamsters Union Reached a tentative labor deal with pay raises and other improvements late last month. The agreement averted a strike that was approaching.

If a deal wasn't reached, the roughly 340 000 workers represented are in the middle of a vote on the deal. Uh, who's Robert you're a UPS driver? Well, congrats. You get 170k apparently on average, so massive. Congrats to you! That is a fantastic fantastic pay.

Awesome! A little bit of negative news: Ukraine announces temporary Black Sea Corridor for civilian ships Warns of ongoing Russia threats. so I don't know if this situation is so bad or if it's Zelinski still trying to stay in the news or if it's Putin's still trying to stay in the news I Don't really have a good read on this anymore just because it was such a thing in February of what 22 and we all paid attention to it for a month or two and now I don't know. Is it me like it? just um, it feels like I don't know if there's still legitimacy to it or if it was like kind of like oh hey, look at this smoke and mirrors and now we're all just kind of tired of it I I don't I don't know. it's been going on forever and it feels like every other day we have mainstream media that still with this like hardcore doomsday type of stuff.

but I feel and maybe it's just because I'm here in America maybe I'm just like not realizing how lucky I am that I don't have to pay attention to it day to day, but it just kind of feels like I don't know, feels like it's an ongoing media thing that I I just think the average American has kind of like just lost interest in it which I'm not saying that's good or bad, but every single day it feels like one of the top five things you should know in terms of financial media is an update of what's going on there. But yet we're not like nothing's really going on there I Don't know it, it feels weird to me, but I just want to let you know about it. Um, because we do know with Russia obviously important to the world of oil, we know Ukraine obviously important to the world of Wheat and just these conflicts in general specifically not good. So as much as like maybe we're bored and we should like aren't paying attention to it.

Obviously we should not only to be informed as just a global citizen, but on top of that obviously there could be Market moving developments so we have to keep paying attention to it in terms of earnings. After the market closed yesterday, we heard from Walt, Disney and Wynn and then before the market opened today, we heard from Alibaba. So I want to dive into all of those some actually exciting stuff. Disney posts mixed results for a quarter played by streaming woes, restructuring costs.

But as we know, ESPN's been a very interesting asset of Disney lately. And two days ago we got an update from Penn Penn National Gaming which owned Barstool Sports sold all of Barstool Sports back to Dave Portnoy and now they're partnering up with their Sportsbook with ESPN I believe it's called ESPN bet but anyway, you have Disney up two percent in pre-market and we've been watching this for a while. I'm not saying Disney is specifically my favorite stock, but in terms of risk reward, there just wasn't much risk here in the mid 80s. And if Bob Iger the current captain of the ship if he could pull off one or two major deals before he kind of leaves and goes into the sunset Disney risk reward.

It's definitely interesting right now. I personally own no Disney but I I really do think something impressive is going to be pulled off with ESPN which will probably benefit the stock. Win delivers. Second straight quarterly beat now.

more profitable than pre-runa So when gambling, good news to everyone, gambling is back in style. Let's do it more and more and more. Alibaba reports solid earnings beat Revenue Rises most since September of 2021. So first of all, I'll just show you when just so you can see what's going on there.

Currently up 2.6 in pre-market trading, but Baba has actually been on a nice push ever since this breakout breakout came back down. could have been a fake out breakout collected itself at 82 and ever since then we're now basically up to 100. It's currently up four percent in pre-market trading ever since the pressure from the CCP on the company. kind of, you know, just I wouldn't say it's completely gone, but they're obviously the pressure is a bit less from the government on Alibaba I'm talking about the Chinese government ever since then and they figured out some of this ant IPO stuff.

It's turning in the right direction. so Baba I've always thought for a while this is one of the most undervalued tech plays in the market. E-commerce plays in the market I Truly believe this is fundamentally undervalued and now that there seems to be less fighting, I'm once again I'm not going to say it's completely done I Don't think we're out of the woods, but now that there seems to be less tension between the Chinese government and the company, you're seeing what's going on. So definitely something worthwhile to be on your watch list after divesting Bar Stool.

Sports Penn Entertainment CEO says Day Porno is the only natural owner for the company Long Term Now we covered this a bit yesterday and I even made a side video on it that apparently none of you cared about. No one watched it. but I think this is actually pivotal in the World of Sports content creation Sports gambling and really individual media as a whole because Bar Stool is very much a unique brand. and now the fact that it's back in the hands of Dave Portnoy I Think we're going to see some hilarious content I Mean in my opinion, they've already made good content.

and yeah, sometimes they butted heads with Regulators because getting approved for gambling is not an easy thing. But now that they don't have to worry about that, and now that it's not involved in a publicly traded company, there's really nothing holding them back. They're going to be able to do what they want to do. Pen Entertainment CEO Jay Told CNBC Jim Cramer and Cnbc's Contessa Brewer that Barcel Sports founder Dave Portnoy was the only natural owner for the company in the long run.

they're not a company and a brand. I Think we all come to this conclusion that should be owned by it should be owned by a publicly traded company. highly regulated licensed gaming company. Um, it makes sense.

There's a lot of fighting with Regulators so makes sense. But anyway, so pem this announcement with Penn and then kind of ESPN actually hurt DraftKings So if you're watching DraftKings if you're watching Penn If you're watching sports gambling, definitely stay up to date on this news. Hollywood Strikes have already had a three billion dollar impact on California's economy. Experts say it's causing a lot of hardship.

So right now there is both simultaneously an actor and a writer strike going on in the world of Hollywood I'm by no means an expert on it I Believe it has to do a lot with the residuals of streaming services and then also what's going on in the world of like Ai and using people's likeness and all that thing. It seems like a lot of these rules and agreements were made when technology wasn't that advanced and I'm even talking and if the deal was struck over a decade ago, at that point, streaming wasn't really a popular thing. AI was definitely not a thing. So now the writers and actors are kind of just saying hey, we need things to get updated to the current level of Technology Uh, there's no saying how long the strike is going to go.

Obviously, there's going to be ramifications in the future: I Don't know what the lag effect is going to be, but the longer this strike goes on, the more impact it's going to have on your Disney plus your Hulu your Netflix your AMC Simply because things aren't being produced right now, movies are not being produced, shows are not being produced, writers and actors are currently not working. even think about like the late night shows, all those they're not happening right now and the longer it goes, the larger the impact is going to be. at this point, apparently already a three billion dollar impact. As it goes, the numbers just going to get higher and higher and higher.

so definitely something to pay attention to. So this morning we got the CPI report coming in later than expected. inflation coming in cooler than expected Initial jobless claims coming in higher than expected The way I would interpret this based on current monetary policy at least the stance of Jerome Powell and the rest of the FED voting members on monetary policy. I would actually interpret this to be bullish inflation coming in lower than expected Initial jobless claims coming in higher than expected.

Two signs that the economy is slowing down, which is the goal of the Fed. And since we're getting closer to that goal, this is increasing the chances that they're done with interest rate hikes. We might be done at this 5.25 especially after these numbers. Now, obviously, I'm not going to necessarily hold my breath on it because we still have the Ppei report that comes out tomorrow obviously 8 30 a.m so we can start the stream early tomorrow.

But between now and the September Fomc meeting, there's going to be a slew of other reports. so I wouldn't say like oh, this is the guarantee because we have to see what these the reports are saying or not saying in terms of seasonality for today. Thursday August 10th It's a neutral day. The Bulls have won about 50 of the time.

At first it was neutral, then it was bearish. Then we had a bullish recovery. So seasonality doesn't really favor the Bulls or the Bears today. but I want you to know that tomorrow, it does favor the Bulls.

So for Friday August the 11th and we'll talk about this a bit more later. but the seasonality does favor the Bulls tomorrow. Five things to know before that: Bell goes Dingity Ding ding ding today Thursday August The 10th positive reaction. So there was at first the positive.

Is it holding right now? Oh, we are coming back. Okay, that makes more sense to me. It very much makes sense to me. that the market should be bullish today.

Inflation data coming in cooler than expected Disney cracks down Uh, it's gonna raise the price of almost all the streaming options in October Oh I Didn't know that Disney announced that. So streaming costs going up even though they're probably not producing anything right now. So that's interesting paying more for a service that's about to offer you less novel idea. We'll see how it goes.

Roblox completely Miss on earnings. Top and bottom Line: Electric Dreams GM Unveiled in all electric version of the Cadillac Escalade Obviously we're seeing more and more of a continuation into the world of EV from a lot of these just classic automakers. But once again, in the world of EV Tesla doesn't just lead it leads by Miles Absolute miles. Will it always be that way? I Have absolutely no idea.

but for now, Tesla is clearly the dominant player. So Market Popped sold off, making a recovery. Same with the cues we have Disney up they reported after the market closed yesterday. currently up two percent.

When is up for all my gamblers out there? Uh, W Y N n is the ticker symbol. win or however you want to pronounce it Baba Currently up 3.8 percent. How bad is Roblox Still right now? Roblox Making a bit of recovery, but yesterday it got rocked to the tune of 22. It was destroyed after their earnings.

Pretty pretty bad mess. Very happy. I Avoided that one. Oil recently has been sitting up pretty high.

we're in the mid 80s actually. at one point how high did this get as high as 85? So oil has just been going higher and higher and higher. Uh, really. ever since the end of June all of July it went up and right now we're battling it out at a breakout level.

If it keeps going. my next watch is the low 90s. I'm not playing crude oil directly, but I am in Oxy I've been in Oxy for about a year now. Unfortunately, I'm still personally under my cost basis which is around 87.88 but we're getting there I'm not too far under.

um so I like the breakout I like the hold I Want to see this test of 67 68 just these recent highs from March and January to see if we can keep pushing from there personally. I've been comfortable sitting in it for so long just because I every single time I hear about Warren Buffett It's basically an update on how much Occidental he is continuing to buy and load up and load up and load up I believe and you might want to fact check me on this one, but I believe he's now to up to over 20 ownership of the company. so I'm definitely going to be paying attention to that and see if it continues to go in that particular. Trend So overall the name of The game is: We got the CPI report this morning.

came in cooler than expected. We have the initial jobless claims coming in hotter than expecting, both of which make me think that the Market's going to go up and my reasoning for that is because it's another sign that the FED is probably done with the interest rate hikes. That's not a guarantee, but it looks like they're closer to being done than they are to getting started. So that's my thesis.

there. we have Disney reporting. They're going up right now. up to three percent in pre-market Bob is going up.

wins, going up, roadblocks, getting destroyed, seasonality today pretty much neutral. Tomorrow it's bullish. Tomorrow, an hour before the Market opens, we get the PPI reports. So today we have the Consumer Price Index Tomorrow we get to Purdue looser price index so consumers, how much has things gone up when you're buying crap and then producers, how much have things gone up when you're making crap? So it's just another inflation report the media landscape loves to tell you about CPI.

But what's really interesting about it is the Fed multiple times has actually stated they personally care more about the Pce report the personal consumption expenditure. So they're both inflation reports, but on a relative basis super high level. The Pce is a little bit more Broad in what it's looking at for inflation, and it's also a little bit more timely. Things like the CPI Well, technically they all have a lag to them, but the CPI is considered to be even more laggy than the Pce, so just want to throw that out there.

I Guess a little bit of a I Don't know a nuanced thing, but hey, that's what you guys come here for is just learning nuanced things about the market. I Suppose Now before we get rocking, hit the like button I Don't know what you guys are doing. The fact that you haven't hit the fact that there's a thousand people watching YouTube and we don't have 2 000 likes. The fact that we have 700 people watching on Rumble and we don't have a 1.5 000 likes.

That tells me something's off now. I Don't want excuses I Don't want you to be like no, my light got lost in a dark pool brother I Don't know what's going on. You know this isn't a place for excuses. This is not an explain.

just just figure it out. Just 100. Go in there. figure it out.

If you need to make two, three, four different accounts to get the likes to where they should be, you should do that. Spend time spinning out 5 10 15 different Gmail accounts Sign up on Rumble Sign up on YouTube and you log into each one and you hit the like and you watch it on all those different screens. Watch me on 20 different screens throughout the day today simultaneously. If you're not doing that like are you really a team player, ask yourself that if you're not going to that extent, Are you really a team player? You better be murdering.

You better be murdering murdering that like button at this point if you're not. I I Just no excuses, just results exactly Drew gets it. Drew gets it. Your girlfriend saw my like button.

well that's I'll have to talk to her I'll have to talk to her about that uh Kevin Durant burner account So like Kevin Durant's in here. he's like hey man I just really need to know what's going on with inflation I Just smashed the button worse than the oh uh uh I suck my bad Moto Dallas It's all good. It's all good. At least it's one thing to do something wrong, but it's it's fine if you acknowledge the misstep and then we work in the future to be better.

I think that's that's what happens. um I've asked for a few more TVs in my office for that very thing Mark yeah Flix If you need me to talk to your manager, your boss, your CEO uh, feel free, throw me on an email chain and I will do I'll say exactly what needs to be done Have you don't have to handle this particular ordeal by yourself? I'll take care of the conversation. Not gonna lie I gently click the like button. Okay folks, now that you have the rundown, you understand what happened last night this morning.

Earnings, seasonality, macroeconomic development. Let's very quickly look at some of these charts. and then and then and then and then we're gonna dive into some of the nerdy Mass stuff that I looked at. So what? I'm looking for today.

This is the Spy, the S P 500, the ETF that tracks the S P 500. We're currently having a little bit of a gap up we're current. No, we're not. That's a lie.

My bad: I Mix up these two numbers. The high from yesterday was 449.20 We're currently trading at 449.17 so we're Trading at yesterday's high. My base case? the fact that on Tuesday they tried to get a breakdown right here. Here's the breakdown level: Maybe I can make this a little bit better.

They tried to break the market down at Four Four Six Two Seven, the Bears did, but yet, like an accordion, it sprung back yesterday. They tried to do it again. But look it, we still close above the previous day's high. And now when you consider the macroeconomic report, that makes me at least as of now before the Market opens before.

I know how people are positioning themselves before I know about the market internals. My bias is a bullish one. So I'm looking for a break and a hold of 449.20 which is yesterday's high and then from there I'm looking at Four Five One well, technically just below it. but the high from Monday and Tuesday of this week, this would be my first Target and obviously that would then be followed by basically Four Five Three.

So I'm looking for a break and hold of Four Four Nine twenty a test of 451, then if that is successful I'm looking for 453, that would be my base case, my base scenario for the day. Now on the flip side, if we end up not winning this very first battle at yesterday's high, I'm then going to be looking for the reaction to 448, that would be Then followed by Four Four Six and some change and then that would be followed by Four Four Five and some change. So the first scenario, which I personally believe is more likely I'm basically looking at the three lines on top, and then for the second case, the bearish case I'd be looking for a failure of 448, which is the low of Monday and then from there I'd be trying to check out basically just above Four Four Six. So that's the second scenario.

The third scenario is a little bit more of a neutral one and I think this is the least odds because of what's going on this week. the announcements, the reports I do think we're going to get movement today I Don't think today is necessarily going to just be like, oh, a little bit up, a little bit down the way it was earlier this week. I Think this week or this day Specifically, we're gonna get some movement now. It might be whipsaw, which would suck like big moves.

To the upside, big moves. To the downside and people getting whipped out? That's totally possible I Hope that doesn't happen. but I don't think today is going to be necessarily A muted day. So that's what I'm looking at for right now.

My base case is to the upside just because of not only the price action, the technical structure bouncing off of this trend line. the Bear's not really getting successful closes. But then when I pair that all together with what we're seeing in the world of macroeconomic reports and even some of these earnings, it leads me to believe that there's a higher odds chance of us testing for for 451 today rather than something like 446.. Now, obviously, when the Market opens and we start trading, that plan could get thrown completely out of the window.

But that's my plan as of now now. If we're looking at the tech sector, Tech's been a bit more weak. We closed out yesterday at 368. but look at this Gap up.

or I guess relative improvements. Technically not a gap up because we're not actually above yesterday's high quite yet. But we're not far away either. The cues are definitely representing a bit of strength right now.

So we've been seeing lower highs. We've been seeing lower lows. You could probably argue ever since. Like the end of July the Bears have been in control.

lower highs, lower lows. Breakdowns Like there really hasn't been a nice push. There was this Gap up on the 27th that got smoked. Then it fought a little bit.

But really, the tech sector which has been leading the markets higher for most of this year because of the Super seven The Magnificent Seven Basically the seven stocks that just like keep on going. They're finally taking a breather. and I'm talking about your Apple your, Microsoft your Meta, your Tesla your Nvidia your Netflix We've They've just been ripping, rip and rip and ripping. and now they're finally taking a breather.

And if you took those stocks out of the overall Market So right now, what's the Spy up? The Spy is up. Year-to-date it's up around 16 percent. Three to four percent is because of the market. The rest of it is because of that little grouping of stocks.

That little grouping of stocks on average is up around 40. or it was. as of last week, or maybe the conclusion of last month, they were up a lot. That little group, that little cohort is the reason the spy and the queues have done so well.

So all of a sudden, if they're going sideways or even worse, underperforming, that's when you're going to start to see I don't know the the wheels come off this particular train to the upside. So watching what's going on there? watching the major socks Apple Microsoft Tesla Nvidia Netflix Meta Amazon that's the group and Google's also in there. Uh, so they've been ripping. but overall, like really, from March till now, they've been ripping.

But we're getting some important trend line breakdowns. Uh, you can see that on the cues here. just I'm tracking the low from late June to mid-july we got the breakdown. We got multiple closes below it.

not the best time we have the Spy getting their first breakdown but saving itself at this second trend line breakdown level. So definitely going to be watching close to this 445 446 level. If that doesn't hold, we have an easy Gap filter 443 Once again, it could come today. These downside: Gap fills the cues and the Spy both have that I Don't think it's the most likely thing, but hey, if that's what Price action is telling us, if we're trending down and the EMAs are pointing down and it's just we, why would we not play it? It's one thing to have a thesis at the start of the day.

I Think that's perfectly fine, but that doesn't mean that you're married to it. That doesn't mean you have to hold that thesis for every single trade for every single minute bar of the day. I In fact, don't think that's a good thing. I Think what you should be able to do is take in the new information.

Whatever that information is. whether you're trading on price action, technicals, fundamentals, Whatever the new information is, you need to take it in as it comes. Your mindset shouldn't be frozen in time from like right before. Arbitrarily the market open.

No, The way to make or lose money is because of the price movement. So if the price movement is telling you that your thesis is wrong, it's wrong. It is wrong. Wrong.

wrong. So you gotta move on. Um AMC Easily going to 1K soon. Did you not see the popcorn? I Feel like you're being facetious, right? I Feel like that's just an ultimate level? Trope Oh, I forgot the popcorn and chocolate's.

definitely gonna take it to a million per share. All right, you guys are definitely screwing around. It's always tough to understand. understand some of the sarcasm in chat like most of your names I recognize your names and I know most of you are just like whatever.

like screwing around with people, but sometimes new people come in. um like this. AMC Market Cap 2.42 billion to 7.42 billion Can someone please explain Pharah's Faraz It's not. So the the simple answer to that is AMC's market cap isn't 7.4 billion so there's no explanation needed because it's just not true.

Like if I came up to you and I said hey, why is the Sun not on today you could say I don't know how to answer that because the sun is on It's in fact on today like the the premise of what you're pushing is just wrong. It shows in the UK No, it doesn't it. It's incorrect data. It's your misinterpretation of the data.

I Would bet my left nut that AMC's market cap is not 7.42 billion at this moment in time. It's just it's shit data. It's you not knowing how to interpret data. It's some other mess up, but clearly all market cap like.

There's such an easy explanation to this: market cap is the amount of shares multiplied by the current value per share. That's the equation for market cap. Market cap equals the total amount of outstanding shares multiplied by the current value of each share price. So you're saying that AMC has tripled overnight.

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. and then like, if you're using Weeble using Weeble's the end-all be-all of accurate data, you're going to Weeble a Retail Centric Commission Free Broker to be your end-all be-all of Truth You're like no man. Solid, solid on Weeble Dude, you gotta understand there's data providers that are going to mess up and they're going to get things wrong And now you have to ask yourself, okay, what's the likelihood of the data you're looking at to be right or wrong and Weeble like are you really going to put much faith in Weeble a retail Centric Commission free Brokerage to be giving you top tier accurate data Like edit Come on, let's just be a little bit realistic here. it's not commission free.

They charge like seven cents a trade. Yeah! I don't think that's them though. I think that's um, uh, there's like a regulatory fee. The regulatory fee or it.

Actually, if you're trading options, the OCC has a fee so it's not from The Brokerage Uh, it's actually from how the trades themselves get cleared. Weeble is high tier? Uh well. if I hide here, you mean not high tier? That's that's right there. That's right.

That would be accurate to say. All right folks, we have about a little over 15 minutes. so I want to show you something cool I want to show you something cool if I can if I can. why is it not coming up here? We go here, We go here, we go here, we go.

Um I Know this is messy looking and I was doing a crazy amount of testing and I was trying to look for the best opening range breakout. I Read an article that basically said there is a statistical Edge when using a 30 minute chart of litting the first bar develop on the day from 9 30 to 10 if it breaks to the upside, higher odds of being a green day, if it breaks to the downside, higher odds of being a red day and I thought to myself okay, makes sense I wonder if it's true and it actually is kind of true. Um to a certain sense. But then I figured we could actually make it better.

So what? I'm finding here. Where is it? Where is it? Where is it? I do need to switch up one thing to make it make sense. Oh, now it's loading. Hold on.

It's thinking it's processing the data processing processing processing. Oh, did not I don't know it just happened. but that doesn't That doesn't seem right. What did I just do? Let's see if whatever random amount of trading this is, if it's profitable or not.

Uh, it is profitable to the tune of 185 000 with an accuracy of 89. What did I do I broke my code but it somehow failed successfully. Hello, how did I do that? That was on the 10 minute. Let's see what it looks like on the five minute.

Uh, thoroughly confused at this moment in time and I want to know how it happened? Let's do it on the five minute. Let's see if the five minute is an improvement or if it gets messed up 155 000. uh, with an accuracy of 89. So anyway, I'm testing this data from 2018 till now.

so it's definitely a large, large set of data and the one thing that I found that was particularly interesting let me switch up the code and condition to. this was the most interesting thing that I found. So basically the way the code's written right now, let me get rid of this Okay, so there's no stop loss. There's no profit Target the current code.

as soon as this updates, here's what it does is: it waits for the first five minute bar. So from 9 30 to 9 35 it plays out if on the very next bar, the second five minute bar of the day. if it goes above the previous High then it goes long and it holds it till the end of the day. So once again, this strategy is same.

You wait for the first five minute bar to play out 9 30 to 9 35. Then on the second bar, not the third bar, not the fourth bar, not the fifth bar. if the second bar breaks the high of the first bar. If the third bar does, it doesn't matter.

If the fourth bar doesn't it doesn't matter. This is only if the second bar of the day on a five minute chart breaks the high of the previous bar. you go long and you just hold till the end of the day. The odds on this blew my freaking mind.

Blew my mind. It works almost 60 of the time. 57 of the time you have a seven percent edge. here.

Once again, you're holding to the end of the day. you don't have a profit. Target You don't have a stop loss. You would build those things in and make it even better.

But the base case of going long on the second five minute bar of the day holding till the end of the day. If the second bar breaks the high, you have a seven percent Edge a seven percent Edge Statistically impressive over 641 trades I Would argue that this is obviously statistically significant. this strategy alone, that just that made you almost fifty eight thousand dollars 58 000 this has produced. Now, obviously you're still going to lose obviously 43 percent of the time.

but your average winning trade is 90 bucks. So if you took this trade every single time over 641 trades, you're crushing it. Absolutely. That's a that's an easy easy 58k.

and actually it's a little bit more. Wild on the NASDAQ NQ dot Here, let me show you on the NASDAQ Uh I Have to wait for this data to load in. Uh, loading, loading, loading. Come on.

Hurry up. hurry up. As soon as this goes away, I'll be able to run it. Come on.

Why is it taking forever? Well, this is now awkward. How long does it take for this data to load in? It should be going lickety-splickety Uh, but it would be the exact same comp concept. Um, and then from here there's clear improvements you would make. Like, like I said there's no profit Target There's no stop loss.

You would want to figure out the ideal profit. Target You'd probably want to figure out some sort of peer meeting scheme you'd want to figure out either trailing stop loss or hard stop loss. Uh, But right here. the well.

hang on. Now the time frame is wrong. Where is my time time frame? customize? Uh. First date back? First date? Hello.

They said it was trading like only a few times. so now we're just awkwardly waiting. Why is it so slow? All right, should be a bit better. Now all right now we can look at this here we go.

So on the NASDAQ a little bit less of an edge, but the numbers are even more impressive. You now made instead of 57 58 000. You now actually made 74 000 once again in the same time frame from 2018 to now of just waiting. If the second bar, if the second bar doesn't break, or if it goes down, that means you're not trading at that date.

But if the second bar does push well, there's clearly an edge and it's not a guaranteed thing. It's not like this works every single trade. That's not how it works, but you can make it in a certain sense. Um, start to perform really, really well.

So for example, let's say let's do that same thing, but set a profit Target Uh, let me show you how actually the accuracy just gets set. Profit: Target Profit Target Profit Profit Profit Profit Profit Set Professor Let's set a profit Target of 250 on the NASDAQ This blew my mind of how often you can make 250 just like air, not every day, but 250 250 250. So same concept you're waiting for. I Mean this has been working like look at this: 250 250.

All these profit targets that are showing you like showing it get hit. Profit Target Hit Profit Target Hit and then if it doesn't hit, you're still exiting at the end of the day. So this works 89 of the time. 88.8 percent of the time.

Nine out of 10 times this would work. Now, if you're looking at it just from the statistical mathematical standpoint, the total net profit is only 2K which is telling you that there needs to be either a better profit. Target Maybe if you start jacking up the profit Target it better weighs out the potential drawdown. or maybe you just need a trailing stop loss.

But right here you're dealing with something that has 88 accuracy. So it works a lot. and as you start to improve it, the accuracy is going to drop. But you're trying to focus on getting your profit factor in your total net profit higher.

So if I just arbitrarily double this, let's go. Instead of 250, let's go to 500 and let's see how that changes things. So now, instead of making 250 on each trade, it's attempting to make 500. And right there we did.

We went from 2K to 10K the accuracy dropped. Instead of 88 89, we're down to 80. But we 5x the total net profit and that was like from one arbitrary change. So uh, the average winning trade is 16 bucks.

Not bad. Uh, and then there. there's many other various things you could do. but this hits 80 of the time.

Four out of five times you're gonna be locking in. That's 500 per trade. now. Obviously, these losses can add up.

The largest losing trade is 11k. So if we were to arbitrarily, let's do a set of stop loss I'm I haven't back tested this. I'll do this today and I'll be able to give you guys more information. Set Stop Loss Set Stop Loss Let's set a stop loss.

It hits. Uh, we'll set a stop loss of 3K Let's see. I just picked this number I Don't know if it's a good number, a bad number. So profit Target of 500 stop loss of 3K Uh, right away.

So we only lost two percent in accuracy, but we we went from a total net profit of 2K up to 30k. and instead of our largest losing trade, uh, the average losing trade is 1600.. let's drop it again. instead of a stop loss to 3K, let's drop it to 2K Once again, going for 500 risking 2K Let's see how it goes.

Uh, not the best. Improvement Um, actually it was better to be at 3K Well, let's go the other way. Maybe maybe the trick here is a little bit larger. Maybe it just needs a bit of room to breathe.

a 4K risk 4K risk. And there is ways to just like run this all through a program and just be like, okay, tell me the optimal number right there. Uh, so now we're at 54k. Ooh, this is interesting.

So it wins four out of five times. it wins 80 percent of the time. This is going for a 500 game risking 4K Your profit factor is 1.27 it's traded 662 times, it hits 80 percent of the time. It's one 530 trades, it's lost 132.

your largest losing trade is 4K and the average losing K is 1.5 K And this is all things that we're doing just right now. Obviously from here, the next thing I would do is try to figure out the perfect profit Target number. So for example: I put in 500. let's up it.

Let's go to let's go. let's see what happens if we put in 750. So I would optimize The Profit Target I would optimize the stop loss and I would also be looking at maybe a trailing stop loss of like let's say instead of I don't know this one's going for 750. Let's see if there's an improvement.

There is an improvement. Uh, well. in turn, the accuracy drops to 73, but now you're making 62k. Let's just I don't know I want to jack it up to a thousand? Let's see what happens.

Okay, so you're going for a thousand dollars. You're risking Four thousand dollars. So your risk is definitely more than your reward. But if it hits a lot, you're good.

and that actually is not that solid of an improvement. Uh, so it seems like what happens if we just go for 250 and we're risking 4K Anyway, you can see a little bit of this process of systematic trading here. Yeah, that's not so this one Jacks it back up. So I'm going for 250 risking 4K accuracies now up to 89, but you're only making 37k.

so there there's a balancing act at. Generally you're not going to get your percentage to go up and also your total net profit because like sometimes you're gonna have to the accuracy to make your accuracy super high. It means you're going for small winners. That's the nature of super high accuracy.

If you're hitting 90 95, that means you're like just doing little scalps which is inherently gonna hurt your total net profit. While on the flip side, if you give it a little bit of room to breathe like even doubling the profit Target from 250 to 500 dollars, the accuracy is going to come down a little bit. You're going to be instead of at 88.89 you're now at 80.. So you're losing 10 accuracy, but your total net profit goes up by about 15 20 000.

So there's various things to consider. If you give up a bit of accuracy, it might actually make the overall system a bit better. and that's just if you're widening your target. So the next thing I would personally do here and I'll do this today is look for the optimal profit Target The optimal stop loss I would also be looking for a trailing stop loss and then from there I would start to figure out what days I just want to turn it off.

There's probably some days based on the daily chart. maybe based on the RSI Maybe based on this, that or the other thing that maybe there's some days, you should just not run this at all. So what I would be looking for is finding a commonality between all those losing days. even if I could get rid of half the losing days, even if I could get rid of.

Okay, think about it this way. Okay, so the total gross profit is 260 000. the total gross loss is 205 000. even if I could get rid of 10 of these losses.

okay, I'm saving myself 20K And then if you get rid of 10 of the losses, there's a chance that maybe you hurt your gross profit a little bit too. Maybe you're skipping out on some actual winning trades. So let's say the total gross profit takes a hit of two or three k. But then if I could cut out 10 of those losses, well, damn we're We're already crushing it.

The accuracy goes up, the total net profit goes up, So that's one thing I would be doing. I'd be trying to find the similarities between those losing days. so that's just I don't know something I wanted to share spend a lot of time coding this up I have the base skeleton code over here on my other monitor and it's to the point where I just need now to optimize and figure out if this is like a reasonable thing to run or not. But I did find this interesting thing and this all came about.

If you're kind of tuning in now and you're like dude, what the hell are you doing um, there is an edge to the 30 minutes so if I switch this over time frame 30 minute, uh, hang on I need to update the time because I was on the five minute, uh, nine. So 30 minutes that would be starting at 10 in the morning. Okay, so here's the 30 minute one. There actually is still a positive Edge Um, wait, what did I do here? So this is that same concept of it's the very second bar of the second bar of the day.

if it ends up breaking I mean you still? Oh wait, no, it's because I have a profit Target here I just wanted to show you what happens if you hold it till the end of the day. Uh, set exit on close. This is what I wanted sorry I didn't comment out all the proper code. there's an edge, there is a six percent Edge I Found that the edge was a bit better on the five minute chart, but there is still a statistical edge of if you break out from that first bar on the second bar looking to hold to the end of the day, you are net profitable and it happens more than 50 percent of the time.

so there is still a positive expected value looking for that opening range breakout. Oddly enough, when I ran through these numbers uh, The Edge kind of disappears the larger your time frame. so I looked I tested everything from the five minute 10, 15, 30, 60, 120, 240. it kind of started to get lost at the 120 and the 240.

So the two hour and the four hour the odds just like necessarily, weren't there so just wanted to share that with all of you. And who knows, maybe I'll trade this today. Maybe just maybe. So on that note, the market is about to open if I can find it Rumble chat Mrs Stephen Shlom oh hi Maddie boy they miss Stephen gone right now I thought he was yeah his next one Stephen was here yesterday.

If you don't watch him, he will touch everything and knock over it and needs more supervision. Who am I not watching now? I'm confused. Um, but anyway, my question to you before the Bell opens which it literally did just open. So as the market is opening, that type of statistical breakdown: Do you guys like that? Do you want me to make individual videos on trading strategies where I explain Hey, if you enter here, exit here.

This is your risk. This is your reward. This is the odds of it working and then applying that strategy to various markets. That was my initial goal when I started YouTube years ago, but there just didn't seem to be much of an appetite for it.

So I kind of stopped doing it. it. Would that? do you want me to do? That is my question. Do you want me to make individual videos