Foreign. Thank you Thank you Oh my brother oh brother oh brother oh brother hello hello hello good afternoon, good evening, good morning, good night, good, whatever freaking time it is for you. Hope you're enjoying your fifth cup of coffee today! The way: I am and uh have a bit of weird news to report: the captain of the ship just went AWOL uh she was here. we were hanging out and I don't know if she heard the music I don't know if she read what you guys were writing about her Uh, but yeah no Captain just went AWOL So she uh 100 Abandoned Ship right before the show started I I I I don't know I don't know if she's coming back I don't know what she is doing, what she isn't doing uh I've I don't know bad Matt Unsup folks, this is none of my own doing I didn't do it.

She is a strong, independent kitten who don't need no owner and she she's doing her own thing Man she I I Honestly I wish I could even say it's here, but that would be a lot I Can't she's gone? She's gone. She might come back honestly I Think this is a good. This is a good understanding of the fact that maybe distance makes the heart grow fonder so we're gonna see how it goes, but she's off in the ocean in the the freezing. Arctic Right now we'll see if she survives.

maybe she'll make an appearance on the way back. I don't know man I don't know I don't know I don't know your guess is obviously as good as mine. We have some things to talk about. Well, I'm not necessarily in love with how today went has very, very similar Vibes As of yesterday where we sucked, then it popped, broke my entire fade strategy and now we're kind of doing nothing into clothes, but maybe everyone was just kind of waiting to see how the craziness plays out with the CPI report.

So couple major things to go over. Uh, as in what to look forward to this evening with earnings? What to look forward to in terms of macroeconomic reports for the remainder of the day? We're going to talk about seasonality. Then we're going to do a little bit of chart review. a little bit of chart review.

Uh, and we'll see how it goes. But man, not. I'm emotionally distraught because the captain under the ship left and I'm also physically distraught because right before this I spent two hours filming the video of why you should trade Futures instead of options it'll be coming out on Monday But I spent about two hours trying to film some parts for him and I don't know man I just feel like I feel like sometimes you're you're just not meant to do content in a day. My I don't know if I was tongue-tied I don't know what was going on, but when I explained it to everyone this morning, it came out appropriately.

It made sense. I tried filming myself now and I was just it was. It was an ordeal to say the least. I was not speaking properly what I was saying I don't know if it made sense.

It's either going to be a good video or a video where you're like this guy's crazy. Absolutely crazy. So uh, I had an emotionally distressing day because the captain of the ship left I had a physically distressing day because I couldn't speak properly and then I had a financially distressing day because I refused to believe my own risk levels and now I'm locked in down 3.5 K on the day with another loss of 500. Unrealized.

So across the board, this: Wednesday is not going my way. This Wednesday is not going my way. But who knows, maybe something magical will happen as we go into the close of the day. On that note, let's see what's actually going on here.

S P 500 Falls Slightly as investors await key inflation report, this is where we're at. Like I said. similar to yesterday, Big Wick down. they try to push it down yesterday.

pops right back up. They try to push it down today, popping right back up the fact that they're trying to get it below and it's popping up. Someone's buying Ma'am Someone is definitely definitely buying so early this morning in the pre-market session, as are a banding Captain Alluded to looking for the test of 450 451, we got that this morning. Uh, I guess one time around 5 15 and one time around 8 A.M So she was on the call.

She was right there. uh, not necessarily right throughout the day. but she trades on the Globex session. Remember, she's uh, she's a TA commodity training advisor.

She's not necessarily just an equity Trader So she's calling that move out and that move worked. Uh, but it kind of brings up a strange question of what's going to be happening tomorrow. Now granted I'm saying this. Take this with a grain of salt because it is the CPI report.

But the fact that they push it down Bigwig back up. They pushed down Bigwig back up. Uh I Don't know what Piper would say right now. Once again, she abandoned us.

all of us be you and everyone in between but still looking for this 450 451 test. The fact that the Bears are attempting to get the breakdown and it's a failed breakdown. We bounce back up. a failed breakdown.

We bounce back up looking at this 451 level. But today the intraday trading uh I would argue is a brutal day. The EMAs and everything wanted you to be negative wanted you to be bearish. There was a good opportunity or so I thought to go short.

right around here. 12, 50, 12 51 and then it just kept ripping. So in our reality, today was a day to just like not trade. I Think because this, this was just ass.

This was absolute ass. You know what's positive though? One of you I assume one of you in here won 1.6 billion dollars. So if you are from Florida and you've recently purchased a Mega Millions Jackpot ticket, there's a chance you might be the winner. How crazy would that be if someone in here was the winner and they just didn't think to check? So they're sitting on like just an exorbitant amount of money and they just haven't looked today? But anyway, winner of record: 1.6 billion plus Mega Million Jackpot should watch out for these pitfalls.

And it's just talking about how there is a quote-unquote lottery curse. A lot of people have won the lottery, end up poorer than they did before the lottery. It's a weird phenomena, but getting horrible advice, not doing it appropriately, not investing, not getting the right lawyers, the right tax person. It's a pain right away.

You're losing 40 to 50 percent to the government I mean that 1.6 billion in a quarter of it? Uh, 40 of it. Almost that. Pro I Think it's like 700 million straight to Uncle Sam straight up to Uncle Sam So that's by no means fun. and then the rest of it.

You would think that you could live off 800 million dollars, but a lot of people end up fumbling the whole situation. Which brings me into my first main question of the show. what would you guys do with it If if you truly If This Were You Right Now you won 1.6 billion right away. Let's just say half is gone.

Let's say 800 million is gone because the taxes. So you have 800 million dollars left over in your name. What do you do? What is the first thing you do I would hope that if I won personally I'd be in a state where you don't have to publicly collect sometimes the winner their name is actually announced, their picture is released. Other states allow for a bit more privacy I'd be like fingers crossed that if I ever won then I'd be in more of like a privacy specific State because that seems like a thing that I don't want the world to know out about like just random random people coming up to you getting money family coming out of the woodwork.

It honestly seems like a massive pain if you ask me. So I would hope that it was in privacy and then 800 million dollars I mean you could live off bonds alone. Just like the yield from treasury bonds. like if you're yielding five percent on that, you're talking what? 40 million dollars you could get 40 million dollars backed by the government.

Off that alone feel feels easy. feels absolutely easy. Oh that's a good call out. Go to Poor Puerto Rico You get a safe haven.

Uh I Only want to know one thing if you give one wedding invitation to Adam Aaron or Ken Griffin which one would be Ken Griffin I actually dislike Adam Aaron more than I like then I Dislike Ken Griffin Um, it would definitely go to Ken Griffin Adam Aaron that crusty, dandruff ridden, grumpy looking that guy. um take home is only 4 33. paint my truck Man vs. Yard.

that's your first call out. You're like I just I need a new color of paint on my truck? hey I can appreciate it. Uh David Mystery would be the best man. the Mullinsio yeah he can go kick rocks too.

Uh, put it all on zero DT calls on a red day? Uh, there honestly might not be enough liquidity in the market for you to get 800 million dollars worth of zero DTE At that point, you're actually running until legit liquidity problems I Don't think you'd be able to get a fill on all those options? That's a lot of money. Uh, zero DTE options I Don't think you guys are appreciating how like we're not trading at that side. like that. That's a lot of size.

A lot of size. That's crazy anyway. So I hope one of you in here is the winner. I Wish you the best of luck.

On a negative note: FBI shoots and kills Utah Man wanted for threats against Biden according to the Manhattan D.A So some crazy stuff going on there. the FBI shot and killed a Utah man on Wednesday today while trying to arrest him for making violent threats against President Joe Biden and in New York district attorney who is Prosecuting former president Donald Trump many other politicians who also allegedly threatened by the men uh Provo resident Craig Robertson I guess just a crazy person Uh so a bit of sad news but also in terms of presidents and weird news coming out musk's ex AKA Twitter find 350 000 in secret Justice Department fight over Trump records Twitter Inc now rebranded as X was fined 350 Fat Ones for defying a judge's deadline to comply with the Justice Department search warrant for records related to Donald Trump's account. The ruling revealed the Special Counsel John AKA Jack Smith's office, which obtained the warrant as part of his investigation into Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election, had asked a judge to Bar Twitter from revealing the warrant's existence. Prosecutors argued that alerting the former president would seriously jeopardize the ongoing investigation by giving him an opportunity to destroy evidence or change his conduct.

In a three to zero opinion, the U.S Court of Appeals for the D.C circuit rejected Twitter's objections to the non-disclosure order and upheld the lower Court's judge civil contempt sanction. The opinion knows that Twitter ultimately complied with the worm judge Florence Pan Who was appointed to the court by President Joe Biden Wrote that Prosecutors had offered unquestionably compelling reasons to stop Twitter from notifying Trump about the search warrant and that the government interests were particularly strong because of the subject of the investigation efforts to undo a valid national election. and this is of course, when Trump has to pop off on True Social. Just found out that crooked Joe Biden's Doj secretly attacked my Twitter account, making it a point not to let me know about this major hit on my civil rights.

My political opponent is going crazy, all capitalized trying to infringe on my campaign for president, and honestly bringing up some interesting discussion and arguments about First Amendment rights. so just want you to know about what's currently going on in this quote unquote like Special Counsel, the Special Meeting special Doj whatever. so musk getting involved. Really, it's esque fine 350k and then obviously leading to Donald Trump popping up.

So political update for you all today. let me know your thoughts. So in terms of the market which is falling a little bit right now, earnings earnings are on Deck Roblox Completely missed. Ravian was okay, upstart, completely missed going down.

Tonight we have Walt Disney Disney ticker symbol dis I'm 100 paying attention to it. I'll also be paying attention to when and then for the rest of the week. There are other earnings but none of the mega name ones that I see a lot of people talking about in terms of the economic calendar. Tomorrow we are starting stream early.

If you are late to stream God help you I will find you I will come to your house with a nice cup of coffee and be like hey wake up it's time that you get up because it the show's starting. So anyway 8 30 tomorrow we're getting the CPI report and then on Friday an hour before the Market opens we're getting the PPI report. Thursday's inflation data may be low, but don't expect the FED to declare mission accomplished yet so it is coming down the trends down. but also I mean Jeff Fox The author of this like it's not wrong but it's also not right because the feds never just gonna be like we're done, they're always.

It's going to end with them saying the final thing they ever say about it is like Hey we're going to interpret in data like interpret data as it comes into us and we will react accordingly. It's never like they're gonna get up there and just be like we're done. That's not how this goes. So yeah, I'm curious to see what's going on.

Uh, the closely watched Consumer Price Index is forecast to show a monthly increase of 0.2 percent for July and a 12 month rate of just 3.3 So that's for the headline. A lot of people are paying attention to Core when you take out food and energy, because obviously some aspects of inflation are proving to be sticky. particularly in the world of like real estate and rent. Those prices not coming down as much as people would expect them to, but food and energy.

It's heading in the right way. It's not where we want it to be, but it is at least heading in the right direction. So I just want you to know the stream is starting early tomorrow. I'm expecting a very volatile day tomorrow and Friday because of the inflation report so everyone get pumped up for that.

and also with Disney reporting that could it could be interesting to say the least. Now, before I get to it, you guys are probably seeing the title. Uh so I don't know I Was just curious if any of you know where this is because what I'm showing you is a picture of a town and a state that is apparently handling inflation very very well. So I'm curious if anyone knows what this is off the top of their head first.

American City to Tame Inflation owes its success to affordable housing. The Minneapolis area has seen an increase in rental units thanks to Regional effort to include new zoning rules. so there this is an interesting breakdown. but I just was kind of curious to see.

uh, what cities are faring well in this current environment. Minneapolis Metro Residents spend lower share of income on rent about 40 percent while you have places like Boston that it's over 60 percent. And then the other interesting graphic was right here: rent growth in areas that change zoning rules Minneapolis Just one percent while United States Overall 31. that's crazy Portland not as much uh, Tyson's corner of Virginia not as much New Rochelle Not too bad, but United States Overall, you can see that ones that chose to go this way with the zoning rules ended up actually faring better, so just wanted to share that and also shout out to anyone in Minneapolis because looks like you, um, are in a pretty solid space.

So congrats on that. Congrats on crushing it with respect to tomorrow. Thursday August The 10th The Bulls have won this day over the past 25 years. 48 of the time the profit factor is 0.89 The seasonality is neutral.

If you look at the equity curve here, it's done nothing bear sell-off bullish recovery. I would say it kind of Nets out too. There's no seasonal bias on this day, which is inherently representative of August at large because August doesn't really do anything. It's more of a sideways type of a month.

It's not like July that was just rippity skippity doodah, so just wanted to share that with all of you. If you want this information, yes, you can get it. Macross.locals.com I Give this out for free at Cores.locals.com it is in the description of the video and now this is actually a perfect time to shout out the partner of today's stream. I'm talking about Apex trading If you are looking to do a prop account and learn a little bit about Futures Trading Something along that line, there is a 90 off coupon.

It is pinned to the top of chat. it's in the description of the video. It lasts for one more day. I've been watching this for a couple months now.

The lowest I've ever seen them go is 80 off. This is 90 off. You could put in this code tpmglus pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video, click on it to get 90 off. So for example, if you wanted to trade or attempt to trade, a 50k account usually cost 167.

it only cost you 16 bucks, 16 bucks and you could get this 90 off deal with this code and or you could use whatever account you want. But I just wanted you guys to know because it's going to last for one more day then they are going to be getting rid of the deal so just wanted to throw that out there to everyone. Um, and even if I see some people saying you're on apex, well if you want this deal, you can still use this code and get a different account and kind of get grandfathered in to a better rate. So pin to the top of chat in the description, the video and on that note I have some alerts going off and it looks like we are maybe vomiting into clothes.

That's brutal. Uh I'm gonna get frustrated looking at this. where are we at of course. So I had a big position against the NASDAQ and my average was 15 193.

if I held till now I would have been positive which is just oh, just wonderful. Isn't it team? Just absolutely wonderful. Knowing that if I didn't get margin called because I was swinging way too big of a position that I would actually be green today. Not angry, not angry or anything.

Definitely, definitely not pissed off. Not angry to say anything. you know, not piss. Okay, let's talk about today.

Let's do a little bit of a trading review. A little bit of a review of like okay, how could you have handled this? Uh, actually, let's do the replay. Let's pretend that you don't know. So you're coming in today and you're thinking to yourself, Okay, great.

maybe I should be bullish. Maybe I should be bullish. Pre-market we're looking good. The cat told me we're looking at 450 where the cat told me we're looking at 451.

we're training at 449. Maybe that's your target. Maybe you're arbitrarily feeling bullish. Well, is it fair to be bullish right away? Well, no.

you want the market the price action to confirm it. So let's see if we ever got an opportunity to actually go bullish. Uh, let me. Okay, no, we're not opening up that.

well. we're in fact looking pretty freaking weak, so that's not the best sign. But who knows. maybe there's going to be a bit of recovery if you're bullish.

Inherently, what you want is a push above the EMAs, a pull back into the Mas, then an explosion higher. So we're not starting off the best. Oops, What happened? Did I just do something wrong? everyone. stop looking.

You're cheating if you're looking right now. If you know how the day plays out, that's cheater, cheater, pumpkin eater. All right. We know the first bar not looking the best, but the market internals are supporting a bullish move because of that green line.

Second Bar Also, not looking the best Third bar. Things are getting worse. In fact, we're seeing a bit of a breakdown potentially to yesterday or two days ago. Low man, we are not catching a bid at all.

Things are getting so bad 40 50 minutes into the day that all the EMAs are starting to go red. Okay, maybe if you're like whatever. I'm a day trader I Want to look for some redness? You still want a punch back up into the EMAs just to lower your risk, even if you want to take that short position. Okay, it doesn't pop.

Instead, it's a sell-off. We never really came into the EMAs so we're looking for a bullish position. As in, we wanted a pump, a pullback, and then a pump for the rest of the day. Instead, we're selling off.

But we it was just straight selling off. There was really no recovery into the EMA Cloud for you to have a low risk setup, so you're just kind of sitting there and you're like, all right. Uh, okay, it's just bad you missed the train. That's okay, you missed it.

It happens if you wanted to be a bit ballsy. this breakdown here you could have taken advantage of at 10.50 just because. like you're like, well, it came a little bit into the EMA clouds. and if you went short in here, okay, your risk is 448.70 You have a short around 448 10.

so you're risking 60 cents. So if you're okay with that risk I'm not necessarily saying it's like the highest odds play, but you could have reasonably gone short there without knowing what comes next because your risk was 60 cents. Okay. And also at that point, you're starting to see some of this crossover where some of the technicals are getting bearish.

All right, not necessarily a play I'm like gonna support, but I understand the reasoning for it all right. And now it's getting interesting. Now with this, the EMA's red. It's pointing down your thinking bearish.

You're seeing some of the internals flash red. The email is clearly down. You bounced off of the low from yesterday. Maybe we're about to Crater through the low of yesterday.

And right here on this pullback, we're looking for a pullback to like a good portion of the way into the EMA. Not necessarily this, it dipped into it, but it hasn't fired off quite yet. This one has this one. we pumped a bit higher.

So now what we're looking for is an official breakdown. to try to go short. this makes sense. You waited, it sold off hard, it pulled back in.

We're looking for the market to continue on its current trim and you just need the price action to confirm it. All right. Not quite yet. We haven't broken down below the previous low, but here, not yet.

You might have got tricked a little because it did like in real time and you would have seen this better on like the one minute or the three minute in this bar at 1pm. It did try to sell it broke below this low. this low that might have been your trigger. Unfortunately, you would have been stomped out right away.

You would have been risking 446 64. you would have been in at 446. Let's just call it 09.. So you were risking about 55 cents and right away you got murked so like.

Even though I would argue, this was a legitimate setup. Unfortunately, that's one of the 50 of the trades that you're gonna lose and you ended up losing on that trade right away. It ripped higher so even here it might turn around, but there's really never a point. We never really had to break him and at this point we're now on the other side of the cloud, which is indicative of oh, wait, this might be trending so you're not going short here because we broke out of the cloud to the north side.

So now you're like dude, which way is this gonna go and like that as soon as you start to break, look at this. we're going and we're going and we're going. Well now things are turning green So you're thinking to yourself, well, if it's going green, maybe I should go long My initial thesis was green, so now you're looking for an opportunity for a push higher Came back into the EMA you're looking for the turnaround to maybe go long into, but it didn't really ever happen. I mean you could have taken a shot right here if you were like kind of ballsy about it.

but once again, you ended up getting stomped out right away. You're long at 447.80 wrist, Four Four seven forty so you lost 60 cents on the first play. You're losing 40 cents on this play, so not a good situation. You could have tried it.

Not necessarily in love with it because the EMA it's not pointing to the upside, it's going sideways. But I Also understand, maybe you're just like a little trigger hungry and you wanted that particular trade. So right now you're down 60 cents, you're down 40 cents. Just not necessarily a good trading day at this point, but let's see what else started developing right here.

We've been vomiting from this moment, so if you held this short from today, you got lucky. Not necessarily in love with any of this. I Guess you could have like on this Rejection it pops up, comes here Yeah. This breakdown.

obviously with like hindsight bias like you know that it worked 448 15 is your risk. You're in at 447.60 so you're risking about 55 cents. and obviously this one's paying off well now. So there's three trades that I would all say were about like a three-star setup.

Today there was nothing that I thought was amazing. The trade that I actually liked the most was this one in here, the 1pm trade between 12 50 and 1 pm. This breakdown I thought was going to be a legitimately good trade and they're like we just broke below it. So I was like okay here we go and it was just one of those ones that didn't work.

Um, right away you actually got knocked out. You took a 60 cents loss up here. You could have taken that breakout not liking it. Uh, you could have taken this one but the EMA wasn't really set up for you.

and then even on this short when you nude, it took it. take it. We were like also in the green. So overall I think there was one decent trade today.

like a four star setup and it just didn't end up going our way and then. Other than that, I think these ones were a little bit more risky I understand that like you might have wanted to take it and this last one would have worked, but sometimes there's an aspect of luck rather than skill in this. So I think the one skillful trade ended up being a loser trade a short here around 1pm and then other than that I think you kind of would have been knocked out of the game for the rest of the day obviously my opinion on it. but I think that's how it went like like I don't think today was really that nice of a trade I don't think today was necessarily that advantageous of a day to trade I think today was just a kind of a whatever day.

We have been talking a little bit about the first 30-minute bar trading in the direction of whichever way it breaks. so the first 30 minute bar was right here. with a high of 449.20 and a low of 448.03 you would have broken down from that in the I guess third 30 minute bar of the day right here. This is the official breakdown and if you held that you would have been up money then you would have been pissed off and going in and close, you would actually be really, really happy.

Right now, there is a statistical edge of the market going the direction of whichever end of the first 30 minute bar breaks. so I could get the exact odds on that for you later. But if we were to break above 449.20 if that was the first break, there would be higher odds of Us ending green and at least above 449 20. And if we break down right here, whatever, this is the 440 803 which we did break here.

Um, there's a better odds of us being read and that's exactly what's playing out right now now. This is not a guarantee. that's not something that you're like every day. I'm doing a full port like just bet in that direction.

No, no, no, no, no, no, no no no no no, don't do that. That's craziness. Don't do that. But there are other strategies that can be built up around it that might help you out.

might make you a bit more profitable. Um, and with all that being said, I have a lot of markings on this chart now. kind of frustrating. Uh, and I'll actually get you those odds uh tomorrow if I have time if I have time tonight to whip up a quick program to tell me the odds of it over the past year.

Five years, 10 years, 20 years. Uh, I'll do that. but there is actually I'll do different time frames. I'll show you the difference and odds of like okay if you do the first five minute bar, 10 minute bar, 15 minute bar 30 minute bar.

which one is the advantageous bar to do it on? Um, so I'll let you know that I'll let you know I'll let you know I will let you know Uh, what do we have? Um, House Sprinkles. Is that what you rename my cat? It's just sprinkles at this point. Interesting. interesting, interesting, Interesting.

Well, on that note, the market did close the Spy down point six seven percent. So everyone who voted bearish this morning congratulations to you. The queues ended up down 1.1 That's actually pretty brutal. My bet for tomorrow now that the captain isn't here.

So before when we were talking I was looking at the big wick. Um, honestly, I'm still feeling up. We have a big wick. Um, we push below the low, but there was just no follow-through The Bears could not close it below yesterday's low.

So I'm actually kind of looking to the upside. Remember, seasonality is neutral, but inherently it's all going to come down to the Market's reaction of the CPI report or at least to the CPI report that comes out at 8 30 a.m ET tomorrow. So I will be streaming early. So if you guys want to be here at 8 20, 8, 25, let's do it.

Let's do it. Let's do it. Let's do it. Let's party.

Let's Party Like It's 1999 December 31st. So I'll see you guys tomorrow 8 30 a.m This evening we're posting content so we'll be posting videos tonight, but streaming once again tomorrow morning at 8 20 8 30 in the morning. That's what I have for you. Check out Apex It's pinned to the top of chat.

it's in the description of the video. They are running on a 90 off deal right now. the it does not get better than this. So if you have any interest whatsoever, get locked into a very very cheap deal.

90 off nine, zero percentage sign off. so check it out pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. Very very good deal. That's what I have for you today.

I Appreciate all the Good Vibes Thank you thank you thank you I'll catch you in that video update later on today and then once again in the Stream tomorrow morning which will be an early one. Much love Peace out have a good one Thank you thank you.