Foreign. Thank you Thank you brother's Brothers Oh Brother Welcome back to another episode of the Cat. Moore Show Where I'm your famed Financial media host Cat, It's a pleasure to be here with you. Today on Friday August the 4th It is a pleasure to be here with all of you.

Today on Friday August The 4th where God Damn it, we're bleeding the red, white and blue starting a little early today because we will be getting the unemployment report in a mere five minutes because as always, we need to know what's going on with the state of America. Now before you ask, you might be thinking to yourself: Mr Cat Is it absurdly hot in that winter leather jacket that seems to denote the American flag with a giant eagle on the back And the answer is yes, The answer is a resounding yes I am sweating to uncomfortable levels in this, which is the only logical reason why I'm shirtless underneath. But this is the new age of financial media. This is what it's like to train in.

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We are getting an unemployment report. The Market's about to go crazy Apple fumbled earnings The Market's being kept Along by Alive by Amazon At this point Jeff Bezos is putting the market on his back and there is a angry herd of bears coming at him. We're gonna do what we could do. We are going to do what we can do folks.

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Hell yeah brother. Hell yeah. As always, the one way to really get this show going is Hell yeah brother. Wages are now outpacing inflation and people are doing it all right.

Gains in real wages. We'll watch for that. Sarah How about you? I Think it'll be a strong number, but I'm going to be going to be watching the unemployment rate if you look at labor force participation. The number of 16 to 55 year olds is now at a higher level than they were in the workforce during the pre-pandemic so there's just not a lot of slack left in the workforce What's your best vote on the day? What are the official expectations? 200 on jobs, three, six on the unemployed white earnings and uh, that would lead to a year-over-year rate of 4.2 percent.

We're looking for a number Becky today that's beneath all your votes tallied in ASAP Not too cold to give fearsity Looking at the Futures right now, they are flat. Dow Futures up by a tenth of a percent s p Futures up by about four Nasdaq Futures up by about 25 Obviously a lot riding on this. We've been keeping track of the treasury market too. Buckle up to: Rick Santelli Who has that number? Rick Rick Fellow brother girls number From the Bureau of Labor statistic, the change in non-farm payroll is under two hundred thousand.

One hundred and Eighty Seven thousand. This is the lowest we've had. cycle last month hasn't been revised yet 209 so this now becomes the lowest level since Dece of 2020 when we were at minus 268 000. private payrolls 172 000 Bit better than expected.

Uh, we should probably mention a two-month revision a minus 49 000 So we are taking some jobs away. The unemployment rate dropped 110 the 3.5 3.5 And just to put a face on it, the cycle lows several times. So far it's been 3.4 that was in January and April of this year. And if we look at average hourly earnings and we all are it ticked up to four tenths expected up three tens.

But each dollar vomiting at four tens and that makes it one, two, three, four, four tenths in a row. After three up three tens. And of course, that uptick will be paid attention to because the year over year earnings did the same thing 4.4 just like our last month. but two tens hotter than expected.

4.3 is the low since we've had the big spikes over five percent. Technically, you have to go back to June of 21 to find anything under four percent, and that was at 3.9 if we look at the work week. 34.3 34.300 barn burner of the day folks cycle low. Uh, we had that.

Also, the U.S Economy added a hundred and eighty seven thousand jobs in July less than expected. The expectation from 200 000 exactly as expected, exactly is in the rear view mirror. And just to put a face on it, I know we're looking at. you know, the 20 somethings of the 50-somethings and we're right to focus on that large group as they come back in the workforce.

But generically speaking, the February of 2020, this number was 63.3 We have not had a 63 handle since. Market Holden Green Underemployment Rate: This is the companion to 3.55 U6 is 6.7 The low There has been 6.5 percent that was in December of last year. Interest rates are highly unchanged 418 before we we saw a little action to the downside, but it's still at 418 and a 10. And just to make you all grin, 418 is unchanged on the day up 23 basis points on the week if you look at two years.

What a different scenario. Two years right now? 88 right? Which means they are basically unchanged on the day and unchanged on the week. Which goes to show us how much movement there's been in yield curves Becky and the Gang Yeah, back to you Rick Thanks. Stay right there.

We want to get back to the rest of our jobs panel for some more interesting. How about you? You've been digging through these numbers The Good the Bad the Ugly Yeah, it's It's a little on the weaker side, but I Think that's okay I Think the wage number is going to be interesting for the Federal Reserve Um average hourly earnings? Um, with a question as to whether or not and how much productivity may be inside that number Uh, I think Tyler is writed on the surface. on the face of it, it's too high to to support two percent inflation unless it's backed up by underlying productivity. Um where I see the job growth um 17 000 Leisure and Hospitality 15 000 on the government side I saw I thought eight and a half on the retail side.

Nothing really sticking out is the thing that that really pushed it higher or made it lower. Uh, all it's all in the service sector. Manufacturing was down 2000 and then we had um, uh, what was the construction I think was plus hang on, let me take a look at that. Construction was plus 19 000.

it's sort of been interesting to me. the construction employment has remained quite so high we cannot seem to get or budge off. We had a nice ride up on the participation rate and now it's flat line. We can't seem to get more people into the workforce and then this would be a topic of debate.

It may take a higher wage Market it just came down by a dollar and two minutes is older folks who have left the workforce and not come back. There's always this flow back from the Uh 55 or 65 and older crowd. They're not. They've not come back and we don't know exactly why or what it would take to make that happen I Have to look I Haven't looked at the today's numbers, but the 25 to 54 and the primates work that particular band back to where it was for the pandemic.

But the overall is down in part because of what's happening with the older cohort. All right. Tyler Let's talk about this because you said the one thing you'd be watching the most closely was average hourly earnings a little hotter than expected. What what do you think that means for the Fed Well, I think what it means.

This is mostly a supply story. Get this guy off the screen in a demand story. Demand probably hasn't Tyler the labor. But we have a supply issue when price when price goes.

I've ever seen a person who wasn't real I think Steve's exactly that. The problem here is we now have an employment to population ratio for 25 to 54 year olds. This is not a really two or even above where it was pretty clear. but in the meantime we've had a demographic transition.

the cohort of the baby boom generation those folks all turned 65 last year. So I think that there's a it's going to be harder to add as many jobs just given the supply constraints. That's an interesting point. Jennifer You said that you were looking for gains in real life, but when you start talking about a supply side problem, that's an interesting one to try and get your arms around, especially with what it means for inflation.

Well, I think we do see pre-imposed Market Low: 448.58 Comparison: two about 50 cents away numbers which not for nothing came down much more sharply than uh were expected. and I think it's important to really pan back and put today's news in the context. A string of really fancy right here. 448-58 coming out of this economy post Market low from last night, the cooling and inflation we might be going bearish.

Team rates uh that have just come out in the last time just like WWE doses millions and productivity. These are just like www dose higher wage, higher productivity types of jobs. These are better jobs to the GDP numbers that have come out of there are still very strong. All of this again as inflation is cooling I Think points to it a new economic model at work.

This is bidenomics at work and so it's a live experiment of the sort we haven't run in this country for 40 years. and I think the FED in particular would do well to sit and watch and really favor the data over Dogma when they think about whether to continue hiking or not. Sarah How's an investor look at this? I Think this is another headwind for the market. so it's already dealing with three challenges.

which is the debt downgrade yields now Crossing on the 10-year Crossing four percent and energy prices that are up about 15 you know? we just experienced one of the longest winning streaks for the market in almost a century that was based on better than expected earnings and also more breadth for the market and um, others. I Think that all is now going to come to an end. We're most likely to be in a trading range as we go into low liquidity August 4700 likely, then starts to trade down from here to 4 300 and we just stay in this range until we get to get the next Catalyst which will be probably around growth, inflation, or the debate over the debt ceiling and how we're going to deal with that now that we've already gotten the downgrade this week. Steve Rick I Don't see um, the FED funds moving up at all.

We're still in that 30 chance of a November hike. Uh is is the Uh 32 though you are kind of combining meaty, you're doing it a little different than some of us, but yeah, we're close. I I Guess the story there is quite simple: the FED is really going to have a tough job Steve because the normalization is taking much much longer. I Think we're going to normalize to more of a pre-covered world outside of a couple areas, but it's taking longer and I I see that being a very tough area for the FED to deal with because ultimately, I think we all know inflation is going to get to much more moderate levels, but in the interim period where they're not sure they're going to have to give us tough love and that's a tough situation.

The two areas I'm looking at, you know, it seems like employees definitely have it over employers. Whether it's strikes, whether it's the strength in unions, pay scales continue to go up. We see those pressures throughout the economy: I Don't see that subsiding anytime soon, especially with numbers like we've been getting in the other area. I Know I'm a broken CD on this and I apologize, but the transition is going to be messy as we go to electrification.

As we see these costs go, we see losses in various dealers and uh, automakers. This isn't going to keep prices down, this is going to keep prices up and consumers aren't really pleased. This is going to get messy and I think those areas are going to end up sticky inflation. but Rick I want I want to stick with you real quick because typically the bond market doesn't trade so much on Supply Is it trading on Supply Now is a lot of this increase we've had in the long end a result of announcements by the treasury of the amount of issuance that's coming down the pike.

Yeah, I think there is a lot of that going on, but I think what that's done more than anything is it's created a logistics issue as Physicians are getting moved around because the notion of the FED being close to the end even though the timeline might stretch out has really nailed short maturities more to the wall and it's really made Supply stocking the treasury after the the government issues that we had a little bit more complicated and then when you even take it further from there servicing the desk expensive and with the Fitch downgrade I personally pushes the low people can right now push a new high, just whip everyone out. however it is putting more and more the dollars keeps vomiting. That should be good for the marketing around these monster traits that have grown for years like the twos to ten spread. Yeah, that that's interesting Tyler Why don't you touch on that too? What? Rick was just talking about what? Sarah The fake person who investors can understand get the fake AI system to talk about it Bill Ackman Said yes today or was it the day before two days ago I Guess just worried that the Fed's not going to get inflation down below three percent.

You know we've We've made a lot of progress, but trying to get to that final percent and a half or so could be a long time coming and that could mean concerning things for longer yield treasuries. What do you think? Tyler Yeah, I Mean it's for one thing: base effects, reverse sign in July and energy probably picked up a little bit. Food prices are ticking up a bit, and when inflation is above three percent, consumers are very attentive to food and energy prices and their expectations adjust accordingly. And we've seen that as the perception Rises that the FED is done or maybe just one more than financial conditions.

Indices start to ease and we've seen an uptick possibly at the beginning of a recovery and business investment. So I I Think this points to a no Landing in the near-term scenario Jennifer You you talk about biodynamics? For a lot of people, Bidenomics is high inflation I've been running a uh economic Poll for CNBC for 15 or 17 years now. It's hard to see a situation where people have been more downbeat on the economy and it's all because of inflation Should the administration have done more to reduce spending and help bring down in political no I think that's an easy one I think the the the situation calls for a bit of patience. This has been a hard strange couple of years and I think that's what's doing the work in, uh, lagging attitudes on the economy.

but again, if you, if you put today's numbers in the larger context. a string of good news starting with the fact that inflation is coming down more sharply than anyone and that the Economist predicted Goldilocks economy. she's chilling for the government right now. I Want to thank our jobs panel this morning? Tyler Jennifer Sarah Rick I don't think Jennifer spoke once I Think it's about nothing, right? It's like 12 points for the day.

Maybe Jennifer's right. Maybe it is. kind of Goldilocks if there's no trade on it I mean yields are a little higher. You have talked about a pretty active week to this point where as Rick was pointing out up 23 basis points for the week even though a lot zero in the moment and the market had sold off to this point.

but no reason to sell off further. phenomenal breakdown. Thanks so much uh, some bleeding Financial minds of our time investor Dan Niles is going to join us plus his take on Apple and Amazon earnings you don't need that Those docs are moving this morning and a reminder that what we really need to talk about is what? What entire nation's going down Market Popped at first when the unemployment report came out, vomited, broke the post-market low, bounced right off of it. A little bit of a liquidity to grab.

Rips right back up to pretty much where we started. Uh, relative to yesterday's close, the Spy is currently up 0.25 also known as a dollar Ten. The cues are up a dollar also known as 0.27 percent. The queue is doing pretty much the same thing, and if you look at the small cap sector actually recovering even more strongly relative to the dip, but it's actually still red on the day relative to where we closed out yesterday, folks buckle up the U.S Economy added 187 000 jobs in July when the expectation was 200 000 and we also have the unemployment rate clocking in I Believe at 3.5 percent the NASDAQ 100 Futures rise as investors way big Tech earnings await key jobs data.

Now, if you were sleeping under a rock all day yesterday, there's a good chance you missed out on a handful of very important earnings namely Apple and Amazon. If you haven't looked at Apple and Amazon this morning, you're going to be able to quickly see that people not reacting too kindly to Apples Uh, currently down 2.85 down 5.50 closing out the day at 191 currently trading just below 186. But on the flip side of it Amazon is the exact opposite Amazon currently up 8.75 up 11 in pre-market trading. So this is a awkward mixed bag scenario.

You have one massive company, the biggest company in the U.S stock market and also in the world missing. On the flip side, you have a very influential important one Amazon still a top ten actually up. and actually we're looking really strong. Then there are some other ones.

Coin did do really well at first. coin was all the way up to 101. It's actually now red on the day trading. Uh, down three percent.

Uh, their Dkng DraftKings also reporting obviously not a Tech play. uh, gambling fantasy gambling up 11 in pre-market So uh, mixed bag scenario. Which means we need to kind of dive into it. On top of the fact that we just got the unemployment report.

here's everything you need to look for. Basically we coming in above. we come in a little long, we come in a little short came in short obviously bunch of earnings. So there's two major things to be concerning yourself with today.

These individual reports: how's the market reacting to Amazon Apple Coinbase: Airbnb DraftKings I Also want you to know that earnings does continue into next week. We're going to be hearing from the likes of Disney so pay attention that earnings season is not over. But anyway, with what was reported last night Apple set to relinquish historic three trillion dollar value as sales Fall Apple dips below 3 trillion market cap and pre-market trading yeah, it's not looking the best I mean Apple I at one point ripped all the way up to 196. this was right before Apple actually reported.

Everyone was kind of like, well, Coinbase is up right now Amazon's up right now the Market's been ripping maybe Apple will beep and then they did it. The numbers came out at 4 30 and it just got murked overnight. It bounced a little bit, but we were pretty much down to this 184 185 level. So watching this today, who knows.

there is obviously an upside Gap film. You could play the upside Gap fell if you're feeling bullish to 190 and 69 cents. But if anything, I'm more concerned with this potential breakdown level at 186 and some change. We're actually below it right now.

This recent trend line bounce. If that doesn't hold, we might be talking about the low 180. So definitely a top watch of the day. So you might be thinking what went wrong.

Apple's most profitable line of business is making up for some of the hardware struggles. So you have certain sub-sectors of Apple doing really well, and then there's other sectors such as iPhones and iPads not doing so well. So it's not all good. It's not all bad mixed bag.

but the fact that we're not crushing in markets looking at it well, does it really deserve to be like within spitting distance of an all-time high? On the flip side of the coin: Amazon Crushing it Amazon CEO Jazzy's Cost Cuts Deliver investors biggest profit beat since 2020. Amazon Amzn crushing Amazon's online advertising unit just brought in over 10 Billy that's Billy with a B in the second quarter. I Also believe posted some record Amazon prime numbers in the recent go around. so Amazon uh, crushing it.

In fact, we could take the meme and instead of having the entire U.S stock market being supported by Apple, let's throw that one out and we're switching it to the next a stock we're switching it over to Amazon All right. so individual equities specifically Apple Amazon coinbase Airbnb DraftKings Probably worthwhile to just check out how they react to today. On top of all that, obviously we have macroeconomic events. the non-farm payrolls coming in a bit short, and then also unemployment also coming in a bit short.

So um, unemployment? they were expecting 3.6 Come in at 3.5 That's putting the FED in an interesting scenario. Excuse me by a lot, my luscious locks are getting a little bit in my mouth I Need a hair band? so if any of you want to send me a hairband, that would be pretty freaking cool. Um, a little problematic for the FED because we know the FED is projecting the unemployment rate going up to 4.5 percent, increasing a full percentage point between now and the end of 2024. So basically, in like the next 15-ish months, uh, looking for this to go up a full percentage point? Because don't forget, we're still fighting inflation.

Inflation is high, High high. It's as high as Snoop Dog on an average day, and the Fed's fighting that. so they actually kind of don't want to see these numbers. If anything, the fact that unemployment's coming in a little bit soft here, which is technically positive for everyone in the world.

not so good when you're fighting inflation and what we're going to do with monetary policy. So this actually might be increasing the likelihood of the FED increasing one more time this year. So a lot of people trying to debate, okay, what's going on? What's going on in September As of now: 82 percent chance of no rate change at the September meeting November meeting 69 chance of no change. So now we're kind of up to 30 percent chance of something.

And then if we look at the December meeting, Uh, 66 chance remaining. At the current level, we are currently at 5.25 So any percentages above it are indicative of maybe a raise. And then obviously there's a little bit of a percentage by December of some cut. There is really no chance in my book of us getting a rate cut this year unless something catastrophically bad actually presents itself.

But it is interesting to see how the yields Market which has been like actually popping lately and you see bonds getting destroyed, look at TLT it's just getting annihilated TLT Not that long ago at 103 dumping all the way to 95 now, so bonds getting hit, yields popping like crazy. These numbers are probably not what the FED wanted to see, making their job a little bit more difficult selling. U.S Wage growth to set stage for end of Fed tightening a monthly U.S Jobs report due today Friday is set to show wage growth continued to moderate in July bolstering the case for an end to the Federal Reserve sighting. According to Bloomberg economics, you know they're kind of right on that one.

Like, there's not really much to say. the unemployment rate. We're actually down slightly 200 000, so the strength of the economy is proving to be better than anticipated. but that definitely is going to keep.

Jerome Powell Daddy Powell The head of monetary policy up at night when he's trying to make decisions of what in the world is going on. Uh, so something to pay attention to. definitely Now that we're potentially at the end of the rate hike cycle and we still yields getting a little hot right now, we see bonds getting a little cool. Uh, something to pay attention to.

The question is is the Fed did they go so far to fix the problem? Did they not go far enough? Did they go so far to break things? Definitely a little bit more right now for probably. August September Paying attention very closely to the world of Yields bonds, the dollar, and how it's all interacting with the overall. Market Speaking of which, we are getting a strong bounce back. Ever since that liquidity grab, we barely barely broke below the post Market low bouncing strong out of it.

Right now, we've actually bounced over two dollars, so a little bit of a fake out I Suppose from about 833 to about 837, four or five minutes of a fake out bouncing strong Tech sector also bouncing dollar getting murked and Bitcoin holding above 29 000. Now speaking of bonds and yields, recently, I've been covering a story where we know that there's the battle of the billionaires we know Bill Ackman is shorting bonds Warren Buffett's buying bonds. So it seemed like just billionaires battling it out trying to cost each other money and now even Elon Musk is starting to get involved. Elon Musk says treasury bills are a no-brainer So now Musk is kind of in a weird way siding with Buffett.

But that kind of makes sense because if you listen to the last I Guess just meeting that. Berkshire Had the annual Berkshire meeting. They were pretty just like friendly. uh to Tesla and Elon talking like they were definitely a lot more positive on them than negative.

So it's not the most surprising to see that Musk is supporting Uh Warren Buffett in this particular scenario. George Things got very interesting very quickly in the bond market. Didn't it? The question I've been asking over the last 24 hours is what is the dominant Factor underpinning this move that we've seen in the last couple of days? What is it? George Uh, good morning John Uh, let's listen. I've been warning for a while when the belly of the curve starts to swing and it could be swinging from Japan all the way to the U.S Strong About five to ten year part of the curve is the most sensitive part for all parts of of the yield Mark yield curve as well as for risk assets.

And so you know we're experiencing a wrecking ball from Supply concerns from you know, concerns around foreign buying. it's going to slow down and I think all that's kind of culminating after. you know an environment where rates have been staying under fed funds for a long time and that's been the Saving Grace for all markets that we've had a very rich five to ten year part of the curve. How important is Japan's contribution to this volatility? If we can call it that George that we've witnessed a member of the Poj Bank of Japan The impetus is the Catalyst.

It's the concern about will Japan start stepping back from buying U.S treasuries. But more importantly is you know it's it's a global rise in race. Japan was the last mover of moving away from Ultra accommodative policy. It's the early days for this.

So the question ask Georgia if Ira Jersey of Bloomberg is whether this establishes a new floor for Global yields or if we've got to think about a new scene never too early for a bush latte because I think we're also at the same time trying to figure out when is the Um actual? You know, like the neutral rate for the for the Uh for the US tenure rate as well. uh with you know, with fed funds uh, you know at five plus rates if we get a uh you know effect decline in the future and cut Cuts uh, you know Defense: I'm not going to go to zero again. So I think you know we're trying to figure out is the floor three I think that this is start helping out that process. That was what was interesting about the call from Mike gapon of Bank of America he made the call in the last 24 hours to drop is this guy? but if you go into the note real human not really Mike says this himself.

he has a little bit more of a real Vibe yes difference between our new forecast and prior forecast is in the pace of rate cuts that they're calling for another hike from the Federal Reserve But Ultimately, when they cut, it'll be in 25 basis point questions for a total of 75 next year and 120 25. now that's 175 altogether and if you go to 575 and you come back down, he's thinking about maybe four George maybe four percent on fed funds in the next cutting cycle. George Do you think that's been well priced well understood by others? Look I mean the bomb Market Has been skeptical and we've discussed this a number of times. Uh, I mean that's probably a little bit more than what I would expect to expect.

I mean I Think eventually you know what the FED has done. these long and variable lags I mean they, they, they're they're in delay mode. They're not necessarily dead. Um, the transmission mechanism of the FED um is taking much longer and people now are starting to believe that we can handle these higher rates.

That's not what I'm saying. My point is that you know the discounting of the belly of the curve. That's what matters most. and it's been the most.

uh, mispriced throughout this whole process. So if we get the 10-year staying above four percent for longer, that matters more than where the FED goes. George Raisins Believe we can take out last year's highs on the 10-year Oh absolutely hell yeah brother. Now that we broke that double 408 tight top on the tenure and today's price action, I mean a lot of these things is possible for next week.

the new brand new 10 years which are the you know, even larger 10 years after the auction announcements and the refunding. Uh yeah, we're gonna. You know the Market's gonna probably discount as much as they can to try to get a higher coupon and then we'll take it from there. Well update on the battle of the multi-trillion dollar market in the world of bonds yields all that good stuff.

Even though this doesn't have a direct impact on the market, the economy, it is still important for us to all cover. If you haven't been looking at the political scene lately, Trump is being indicted once again Trump Pleads not guilty to charges of obstructing election ex-president made first appearance in Washington Courthouse Next hearing set for August 28th. So what's that? Three weeks from now roughly judge plans to set a trial date Kaylee How's it going on there? Well, it started to rain and started to clear out as this hearing was adjourned just over 20 minutes ago. Where, of course, as you said, Joe the former President was arraigned for the third time and pleaded not guilty to all four criminal charges which include conspiracy to deprot the U.S conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights.

Also in this hearing, the Magistrate Judge set the date for the next hearing with the judge who will actually oversee this case Tanya Chupkin that is set for August 28th at 10 A.M Though the former President will not be required to appear, but the Magistrate Judge Saying that Judge Shotgun Shotkin does intend to set a trial date at that August 28th hearing, and Trump's attorneys in the hearing today did say that they want adequate time to review all of the government's evidence. As we know the the Trump Camp has been pushing for a later trial, while Special Counsel Jack Smith whose office brought these charges has pushed for a speedy trial. so we'll see how speedy that trial indeed will be. But it's important to keep in mind: Duncan has ruled against the former President four back in November of 2021 when she denied his request to prevent Congress from receiving documents from the Executive Branch related to January 6th and she also has a track record of giving stricter sentences to January 6 defendants then prosecutors were looking for.

So it'll be interesting to see how she handles this case moving forward. but for the time being guys, we're just waiting to see what we may hear from the former President after this historic day. On that note, there was one more update for all of you former President: Trump Released on Bond under strict rules after not guilty plea to election conspiracy charges. So right now out on Bond, that's the most recent update.

I'm sure there's going to be more coming down the pipeline and as that happens, I will keep you all informed. Five things to know before that stock market bill goes dingety ding ding ding today A Beautiful red, white and blue Friday August The 4th Welcome to the Cap Moore Show Where everything is cat and everything's a little bit Moors Lots to digest. We have a lot of earnings Apple Missed Amazon Hit. We're getting the unemployment report.

The markets all over the place doesn't know what to do currently acting pretty strong trying to push above the high from yesterday, so if you're bullish, you're probably pretty stoked right now. all eyes on jobs. We got those numbers coming in at 187. They were expecting 200 in the unemployment report coming in a little bit short as well.

Arguably good for the economy, but does that necessarily mean it's good for the stock market? We're going to be finding out in about 30 minutes you win some you lose on Amazon Crushed it Apple Missed back in court we covered Trump and what he's up to. Everyone's overseas. Uh, right now there's actually a big update of Airlines dropping prices especially in this like: September October November time frame. Um, just trying to get people to travel.

So hey, if you have any cool trips I Hope you're having a a fun one I Hope you have some fun Ones Playing now for today Friday August The 4th Before we get into some chart review and all that good jazz I Just want you to know that today, the seasonality does slightly favor the Bulls It's not the most bullish insane Matador Run with the bulls tribe a day, but it does favor the bulls. The bulls have won this day 56 of the time over the past two and a half decades and the profit factor is 1.67 as in every dollar spent in the bullish Direction on average has returned a dollar sixty seven. It kind of trended up, then it started trending down, and recently, over the past five to six years, there's definitely been a little bit more of a bullish favoring and that's why today isn't full on bullish. But I would argue that it is at least leaning bullish.

So with that in mind, we know the seasonality slightly leaning bullish if the market the S P 500 tracked by SPX Spy Esvo. However, you're looking at it. If we can get above and hold above yesterday's high, which is 4579, we're currently trading at 450 71. That would make my bias bullish as long as we are below 450 79.

My bias would actually be bearish just because the last four trading days lower highs, lower lows I like to trade with the overall trend, so obviously the overall trend could theoretically be switching if we get above and hold above 450. 79 On spy, if you're looking at the queues, we're actually already above it at 375.95 So basically 376 for about five cents above it Right now. it's the concern if you're bullish or bearish. One of the major concerns is is Apple's movement helping you or hindering you.

Yesterday the low was 190.69 We closed out the day at 1 9117 and it is getting its face slapped in pre-market trading right now. 186 Below 186 is where we're at, where we're at. and if it can make a recovery if it pushes for this upside, Gap fill I mean obviously I'd expect the spine, the cues to go just because Amazon's also so strong. but if Amazon's pushing and then Apple's falling, kind of dependent on who's moving more.

So definitely watching both of these today among many other things that are going down. So I Want you to know seasonality Leaning Bullish in terms of price action, at least for the overall. Market I was leaning bearish coming into today. but I mean if we were to open right now, my bias would actually switch to being bullish.

So bearish. Really. Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Today I Want to see the opening? As always I'm going to be waiting those first 10, 20, 30 minutes. That type of a deal and we'll go from there.

This is a perfect time that if you kind of want to get a little bit more involved in what we're doing. like the generous to see with these prop trading accounts pinned to the top of chat. in the description of the video, click on that link. I mean it's not the best UI here but they're running in 90 off deal that's gonna last for a week.

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So if you're trying to get a crazy, crazy good deal in here, ninety percent ninety percent I mean I think most of these I just bought one uh, an account for myself on it 90 off I think normally it's this is now 16 bucks I had to pay for it. it's normally 160 but you only have to pay 10 of the fee. so check it out, pin to the top in the description of the video and maybe just maybe we'll see if we can actually get that account approval. Let me bring up Apple Apple Let me bring up Amazon All right, we have these two bad boys seeing what's going on there, seeing what's going on there.

This doesn't really impact your life or the economy or the stock market, but I do have somewhat of a large announcement everyone. it's great to meet you. Obviously Cat Moore is here. Um, big big news, but your boy is going to be able to go to a county fair this weekend.

I will be doing all the county fair stuff. Word on the street is is this particular County Fair not only has the demolition derby but also sells fried Oreos So you should be enjoying this Greek like sculpted body now because by next week after consuming I assume metric bucket loads of fried Oreos It will not be looking the same. so enjoy it while it's here because this is going to be the last day. it's even a thing Bruh fried.

Oreos You guys know you guys know how it is. All right. On that note, there are some interesting Side Stories I Want to cover with all of you So previously a couple months ago crushed the IEP trade, crushed it Hindenburg came out with a hit piece and basically said how it's all bullshit, rode this all the way down, got out of the position, wrote this all the way down, and then I was done with it. Well out of nowhere, what's going down is now exactly what Hindenburg would predicted would happen.

cutting the dividend icon Enterprises Carl icon Legend on Wall Street Considered to be like kind of an OG corporate Raider Um, Well, obviously he kind of met his match with Hindenburg icon Enterprises Stock slides 28 in the pre-market after company halves quarterly distribution to one dollar per unit. so this is particularly worrisome for IEP Traders investors Bulls Because one of the most exciting things to be in IEP was the fact that its dividend was so big and now that they're cutting the dividend obviously, it makes it less enticing and it is also bolstering the case of Hindenburg saying they they predicted this was going to happen and it was, if anything, kind of giving a little bit more Credence to Hindenburg's call out that IEP is just about to die. Icon blames news and disappointing quarterly earnings squarely on short seller Hindenburg research Well, if your business was that good, you wouldn't have to be cutting your dividend icon Enterprises ticker symbol IEP tumbled 28 early Friday after the company said it's cutting its quarterly distribution to one dollar from two dollars, so cutting it in half? That's brutal I Believe the second quarter partially reflected the impact of Short Selling on companies we control or invest in, which I attribute to the misleading and self-serving Hindenburg report concerning our company. Obviously, Icon said in a statement just standing up for himself.

and uh, I mean of course you have to say that, What are you gonna say? Oh yeah, they're right, but I mean revenues falling there. They're missing on earnings. There's pretty fair arguments that some of their illiquid assets that are within IEP are being overvalued. It's a mess.

It's a mess. It's a mess. It's a mess. And it's not really that surprising at all that IEP is currently getting murked, closing out the day yesterday at 3268, currently trading at 22.73 down 30 percent in pre-market trading.

I Mean this was a tough trade to get because we have been trending up where the stock has been trending upward higher highs, higher lows. There wasn't really a clear reason to be betting against it, but if by some reason you recently got into puts huge congrats to you. but I don't know if many many people did just because it like it doesn't have much volume. it hasn't been discussed recently and the fall kind of came out of nowhere.

so if by some miracle chance you got it. I I congratulate you You good thing you're in America but I mean I wouldn't at this point you kind of you kind of missed it. like I don't know of many people who are like ready for this. uh but hey, if you got it, you got it.

Huge congrats, Huge congrats Uh for me I wouldn't be touching it now I'm seeing some comments here of like people interested and get like it's still chasing, it's down 30 like and of course it could keep falling. but what's your risk? your risk? is far too large. So I See people in here like what are your targets? What are you like Once again, you're squarely focused on your reward and if you're squarely focused on your reward You're Gonna Lose Ask yourself what's the risk and at this point, your reasonable risk levels all the way up at 32.52 why would you trade that that? it's It's too much risk. Way too much risk.

So even if it dies here, if you don't already have a position, why are you chasing it down? Uh I mean you might get lucky, but with that type of methodology time and time again, you're gonna end up losing you. You will end up losing if you continue to trade with that type of a style right now. A spy battling it out at the high from yesterday, the accused battling it out at the High Apple Currently down 2.9 Amazon up nine percent How is coin doing this morning? Uh, had a strong reaction at first and now it's actually down on the day. Down: two percent Airbnb Currently down 1.2 percent Dkng currently up 12.5 DraftKings is climbing and climbing.

And climbing it is. Move it, Move it, move it, move him. Most successful Traders are prob scalpers if I had to guess LOL Always take profits. No, no, they're not like the Big Wall Street People aren't really scalpers.

You either have like super super scalping as in high frequency trading like in and Out before we could even click a button or you have like longer term people, someone like buff it or like they're swinging it for like a couple months couple years. Uh, the concept of day trading isn't really a thing in Wall Street Uh you there are people who are successful at it. I'm not telling you you can't be successful, but if you look at like these people who are I mean inherently making money is a function of time, you want to get in early on a trend and play that. Trend So some of the best traders of this year are probably people who got into Tech early at the start of the year and are holding till now.

They're not scalping it. They got into Nvidia like at 200 they got into meta sub 100. They got into Tesla's like sub 125 and they held it to this point. they're not like scalping and they probably got in and are just holding and holding and holding.

Why was there never a pregnant Barbie Because Ken came in a different box. You guys are messed up. You're messed up that that's messed up. That sounds like Matt Core's advice: Catmore's goes in on every short play.

Yeah I mean as Catmores, most of My Success goes from highly levered plays short time frame. You just gotta go for it. America didn't be come America By not risking it for the biscuit, you just gotta Sometimes you just gotta go for it. Oh all right, what else? So those are the big movers.

Let's get up the heat map so we can see what's starting on the day. Interesting to see that the Market's essentially being pinned right to yesterday's high. Uh I This is now what? Day three or four of me trying these prop accounts. We're gonna see how today goes.

Bought one on that huge deal. All right. 15 minutes to go. What questions? Comments: chart reviews do you guys have in mind: DraftKings Looking pretty good coinbase now.

looking weak Was looking good at first Airbnb Looking weak Apple Looking weak Amazon Looking strong I've been watching Disney a little bit. This is one of the other major ones that's coming out next week. We are continuing earnings season next week. Currently trading at 86 up a little bit, but to me this just seems like a pretty good risk to reward trade.

There's not much risk and if Iger somehow pulls off a good deal, the reward could be immense. The dollar is weak. The dollar is weak. Putting in a lower high might be getting crushed right here.

Interesting Dixie Putting in a lower high might be vomiting all the back way back down to 150. maybe 100 flat, maybe 99.50 But definitely a peak of formation. Just be careful. the last time this happened the very next day Thursday July 27th.

it looked like it was going to continue down and then it ended up ripping to the High. Heavens Ended up rip into the High Heavens What hair product do you use? Freedom Absolute freedom. Freedom With medium Shine Me medium Shine freedom. Uh, uh.

Iger Helm In the ship right now at Disney I Have a sneaky suspicion he's going to be able to pull off a pretty impressive dealer too. I Have a sneaky suspicion that Iger has a major dealer to left in him? What it lacks unless or makes up for military might? Hell yeah. brother. Hell yeah.

Brother T-u-p House T-u-p had a bit of a recovery yesterday, bit of recovery yesterday, and now it is currently up 49.6 in pre-market so definitely looking weak here on Wednesday red day. volume exhaustion made a bit of recovery and now that we're punching to a new high, this could be phase number two. Um, obviously week between Wednesday and Thursday today somehow comes back to life. Be careful about this downside.

Gap Filter 424 though Diaz or Paul who's your pick? That's a phenomenal question. Uh, I guess before I give you my thoughts and my reasoning on Diaz versus Paul which I will definitely be betting on I Want everyone's thoughts in here and don't fall. Don't fall for the easy easy marketing trick of just not liking Jake Paul We're not talking about if you like Jake Paul As a person, we're talking about who do you think's gonna win the fight we are not talking about Oh I Want this person to win I Want that person to win. We're talking about who, like you legitimately think is a better boxer.

this isn't an MMA fight. This isn't a street fight. This is a boxing match. And obviously to win money when you're gambling, you have to be right.

You can't let your emotions lead it. uh um, the fans are gonna win I Hope so no matter who wins. Joe Rogan always wins. P Diaz is a pure gangster.

He's going to kill the dude. See, that's my issue right there. He's like it doesn't would Diaz win in a street fight? undoubtedly. but this is a boxing match.

Um, foreign. I'm curious how many people don't appreciate the fact that they're like the Paul Brothers Like them or not, you're kind of falling for their marketing tactics. Like if you feel that you have an um like when someone says Jake or Logan Paul if you have an emotional reaction, you don't realize that you've fallen for their tactics, they are Master marketers. The Paul brothers are up there with Jenner They're up there with uh Port 9 from Barstool folks.

The reason: Like you're having this like idea that you don't like them because he's the quote unquote villain and yet you're lining his pockets because you're gonna watch the shut the fight. We're gonna pay 10. we're even talking about it. Now You've fallen for a marketing tactic like he's created this character and he's playing into the character.

Not something that I've ever done before, but that's what I at least assume is going on. Uh, Diaz is a great boxer. Um, no, not like relative to boxers. Like there's not many boxing analysts out there saying Diaz is a phenomenal boxer, Diaz definitely has a chin and Diaz clearly has better endurance.

The longer the fight goes on, the odds will start to favor Diaz more and more and more at the start of the fight. and even according to Vegas right now, Jake Paul is the favorite. I think what was he negative 400, Uh, negative 450 Something like that. If Jake Paul's gonna win this fight, it's going to be early on.

the longer it goes. It's Gonna in my opinion, end up favoring Diaz quite a bit. Every single round that passes Diaz will become more and more favored. uh Jake Paul's shot to win this is to come out strong and just hope that he connects on like one big hit.

and if he can't pull that off if Diaz's uh, defense is too good in the first like two to three rounds. but I think if it goes past that, Diaz will end up getting greatly favored. Greatly favored. So remember Jake Paul's last fight in Saudi Arabia is a joke.

I Remember he knocked Tommy Fury down and Tommy Fury didn't knock him down. Why would you call it a joke I thought it was like I mean I thought his cardio was seriously lacking. Um, but even though he lost the fight to Tommy Fury he's the one who knocked Tommy Fury down Tommy Fury didn't knock him down. My point is is obviously Everyone's entitled to their own opinion of if you want to like or dislike Jake Paul But if you're about to bet money on this, you have to not go with emotion.

You have to kind of go with like facts of who is or isn't a better fighter. and I think it should be considered if you think it's going to be a quick fight. I think it then favors Jake Paul if you think it's going to be a longer fight I think it then favors Nate Diaz Is it a boxing match? Yeah, Ideas is a good Striker but not a boxer. there's a difference.

Yeah I mean you. You can't really conflate boxing the sport of boxing with fighting like it is a specific like if you look at like Mayweather he's a phenomenal boxer Floyd Money Mayweather but he's not a guy you would want to support you in a street fight like when Mayweather pretty handedly beat Conor McGregor but still, that was a boxing match. If you're in a street fight you'd want Conor McGregor behind you. um in a boxing match I think Jake Paul actually has the upper hand but in a street fight of course I would not want Nate Diaz So you just have to think about like specifically the arena of what this is a street fight.

Yes, Give me Conor McGregor Give me Diaz Give me those kind of people. They're better at actual fighting. But this isn't actual fighting. this is boxing.

There's rules. There's defense. There's offense. There's a way to score points.

Like there's a lot more going on than just thinking like, oh, like this guy would kick this guy's ass in the street. That might be true, but that doesn't necessarily like. couldn't like. That's not a linear correlation exactly with like what's going to happen in a boxing match.

uh, different types of stamina too. Boxing Marathon MMA is a Sprint Yeah, but even with that Diaz Dude, both Diaz brothers, Nick and Nate Diaz they're they're cardio is unreal. They're like a truly unreal how good their cardio is. I Don't think they get tired I think they just like take a bong hit and then run a marathon for fun.

like they just don't stop fighting. They don't seem to get tired. And what's interesting is even though Conor McGregor got to like whatever level he got to at one point the Pinnacle of the sport, you could kind of argue that his cardio was lacking like he that when he lost to Diaz when he lost to Khabib, you could just see how gassed he was. He was just so so tired.

And those guys Khabib and Diaz it. They were just like the little Energizer bunnies. It didn't look like they were even one percent tired. Uh, did you see when Nate choked the Logan Paul look alike? yeah, on the street or whatever.

That was pretty funny, but exactly phenomenal. actual Fighters phenomenal actual Fighters But I don't know. it'll be interesting I'm actually not sure how I want to bet yet? Um I haven't really made my decision but I think they both have legitimate shots I really do? Uh Paul versus Diaz It's Saturday night and of course I'm going to be buying it. What is this what? Jake Paul Nate Diaz Team throws punches at pre-fight Face-Off bill for more than two seconds anyway I would like to see on a typical boxing Face-Off You know what I mean So I I I I Particularly don't like the MMA tomorrow tomorrow night.

Hopefully you're gonna hear from both. uh Jake I Know we'll definitely come and join us. Oh, there's some pushing going on, security guards pushing each other as well out there that we don't want to see. There's a couple of no, we don't want to see a brawl there.

We don't want to say oh oh whoa okay, that's what we don't want to see. We don't I like Kelly All about black suits though. they look classy. Uh, ideas, talks promotion be with Jake Paul ahead of boxing match.

All right I'm interested. He seems like he's irritated that he thought that maybe some effort into him on certain things and he doesn't think you've been doing that. What are your thoughts on that? What? Um, that's some effort into the interview. I don't really.

uh I think my fighting from over the years promoting my fights and uh I'm not gonna get a little kid arguing with the guy and uh, this guy is a straight up Gangster though act like we're in and he really that it is I think my shots beating Nadia's in a street fight are actually a negative percent I Don't talk a bunch of shit like he wants to do I don't want to see him talk shit and go back and forth. He said something about me I wasn't there for no argument I Don't even want to go to a press conference to argue with nobody. If we're gonna argue I'm gonna, we're gonna fight. So language.

Do you think that things might change during fight week? Yeah. I'm ready for everything I'm just I'm ready I'm ready to go to war right now and I'm ready to be cool until let's have a final care. Uh I'm I'm in a new boy you can vote on the whole career put up. Uh Jake Paul Nathia's Poll I'm not trying to scare anybody I'm not trying to fool anybody if people want to watch.

That'd be great if they don't That's fine too. I Only need I Only need. That's where he got me Twisted I'm not in a gimmick fight with him I Only need man I Only need him to know. Did that not go that I Whip his ass I Don't need the whole world I Need to go begging for people to watch.

Don't watch. Don't watch. Trying to do the opposite like the not not promoting but doing the opposite Telling people to not watch. That's one way to handle it.

That's one way to handle it. Who win the Jake Paul Nate Diaz Predictions preview and breakdown Jake Paul And Atheist Fight on Saturday But who will win? Uh 66.29 Paul TKO Paul Unanimous decision Paul Unanimous decision Paul Unanimous decision. Well, literally, these analysts are all calling for: Paul Uh, why is the poll not running? Hang On by night Paul Diaz I Think it should be Paul Paid them Yeah. I Mean you're falling into it like Jake Paul Maybe it's part of his personality, but has gone through extensive steps to become the villain you want to become the villain in Combat Sports Because it gets people to pay to watch you fight.

Pay attention to what's going on because they want to see you lose. If you can't see how, this is just like a money-making decision to have that type of a a setup. I Don't know like there is a very, very fair argument that Jake Paul is truly the better boxer. That doesn't make him the better fighter, but it does make him the better boxer.

And for anyone to say like oh, this is paid off and rigged no, why do you think Jake Paul or excuse me Diaz would ever agree to him if Jake Paul wins, whoever wins it is the legitimate winner. They both have too much to risk to lose just to be paid off. Like even if they were paid off one, two, three, four, five million dollars, them losing is more detrimental than that money amount. So this concept of being paid off like it's embarrass.

It's embarrassing for either them. If Nate Diaz loses, that's a huge embarrassment to you. lose to a YouTuber He would not take any money to lose. He's too prideful Fighters have too much ego.

He's not going to be paid off in Jake Paul He's not going to get paid off to lose because he's trying to make this his career. What is he like? 24 or 25? if anything. You can tell that he has Ambitions to become like the top of the sport. so he's not gonna just take a random loss, especially after already having lost to Tommy Fury Both of these dudes are going in attempting to win it like they want to win because what you get for winning is way more than what the other side could offer you to possibly lose.

Uh, that was old school. It's all Fame And money now. exactly Fame And money that you get from winning. You're Justin.

You're making my point for me, there's too much Fame and money to be garnered right now if you are a winner, so no one would agree to like fake it because they want that. Jake Paul is definitely the better boxer. He's doing it for years, whereas Diaz has no need to focus too heavy unboxing. Yeah, like he's a decent Striker like relative to 99.99 of the population.

he's gonna probably win in a boxing match. but he's fighting a dude who's now been training boxing for years. and the question is, who's been training it for longer? Who's been trying to get more diligently? Who is better prep Coming into this fight? there's a lot on the mind. All right.

On that note, the biggest casino in the old Red, White and Blue is officially open. played responsibly. If not, have fun, this one's for America America and uh, America Obviously I'm waiting for the market open I Want to see how things shape up after the first 10 15 20 minutes? I'm looking for the break and the hold of 450 79 yesterday's high. This could just be a classic fake out breakdown we recapture and could push all the way up, up and away.

That's what I'm watching. For 450 79, the queues look like they're about to take out their high from yesterday at 375.95 But anyway, first 10 15, 20 minutes I'm sitting on my hands waiting to see what the beautiful Casino gives us as we're waiting for that to happen. Uh, once again, lots of people ask me about where I'm doing this prop account. you can get 90 off right now.

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Interesting, interesting, interesting, Interesting. The only fight you care about is cat Moore's versus Matt macros I'd Beat the shit out of Mac Horse that nerd. that nerd you think I would lose to that nerd. Good one good one.

All right. Why is my brokerage not opening right now having some brokerage issues? Maybe I don't have the proper data connection I Heard macros can stair step all day. Dude: Matt Cores lies about that. He's not a stair stepper.

He wants to be a stair-stepping expert. He wants to match Strats. Oh no. I'm I'm worried about Mad Strats I'd I'd screw around with Matt Cores because he's like whatever.

I'm not afraid of him. but Matt Strats. um I wouldn't I wouldn't mess with that guy. That guy's crazy.

That guy's particularly crazy I would not mess with match Strats. Uh oh, my brokerage is just completely crapped out. Why is my brokerage not working right now? Team? Is this gonna work? Nope, just not doing anything today. Uh oh.

even if I wanted to fire off some trades I couldn't Right now my stuff is I Don't know if anyone else is having an issue with tradestation but I cannot get anything running. Today it was there and it tried to do a data download and obviously it was like corrupted or something. Have you looked at IEP yet? yes we have looked at IEP Huge gap down. but unless you already have a position, how are you going to chase it? Don't The way you guys are falling into this trap of just arbitrarily disliking.

Jake Paul Just because like the internet tells you to, don't just fall into the Trap of chasing. Just because something's down a lot doesn't mean oh okay. I need a bet against it that's don't get tripped, don't get tripped. Oh, come on, do I just need to trade off my phone Brokerage Technical difficulties: Spies looking good.

That's why it's actually looking pretty good. How do I Just need to crash this program to make it work? Come on, work for me. this time. The eighth time has to be the charm, right? Diaz Can b