Thank you Foreign foreign Oh bro bro brother. Oh what's going on? Welcome back to another episode of Matt Core is live the Matt Core show Where your Matt Cores and the show and today I'm just gonna be a participant folks. it is the first day of August so whatever happened to you in July if it was a winner I Hope you can repeat it and if it wasn't a winner, let's just forget about it. No one likes trading in July Anyway, you could just blame it on the summer months and you're about to start fresh new now.

So that's the mindset. Think smarter, not harder, you know? So folks, we got some earnings to talk about. If anything, the thing that I'm fascinated with right now is the fact that out of nowhere the Market's been kind of vomiting since like 2 A.M We cannot catch a bid if you're looking at pre-market right now. it's going down and down and then a little sideways and then a little down and down and down.

So makes me feel a little bit bearish going into this. especially because not just because we have red movement in pre-market but more so because we have a breakdown of some recent lows that seemingly were pretty important and also when then I think about how yesterday ended right in the final 5 10, 15 minutes, we saw a huge explosion to the upside. maybe related to the market on clothes or maybe people were trying to hide a different trade in there and they were just trying to get everyone to think it was because of the market and Balance report. So various things to talk about: Happy Birthday Mark I Appreciate that.

Thank you Uh Happy Birthday Gamer: Dan Uh, Happy Birthday Mark Gamer Dan what are their birthdays tracks? We'll just say to you Happy Birthday Mark Happy Birthday to everyone Just it's everyone's birthday in here. It's the August 1st birthday. Why not? Uh, end of month BS Very well. could be that we always see just a lot of times.

the end of the quarter, the end of the month, big rolls of positions, people trying to decide what they want to do for the next month, the next quarter. Um, maybe a little bit of it all together. Totally could be happening. So lots of things to consider.

So what I want to do today is quickly Rick Through some of the news, we have some earnings I Want to give you an idea of the macroeconomic reports coming out and we should also look a little bit at the seasonality. but I think our morning might be best spent. Kind of checking out these charts because going into close yesterday it felt like we were knocking on the door of a pretty serious breakout. Like maybe another potential massive leg to the upside where the Spy the cues the Russell everything just gains gains gains.

But now judging on how things have gone from the overnight session to where we are at this point when we have about what 20 minutes to go till that belt goes Dingy ding ding ding. Things are all of a sudden catching a wave of weakness. So I think they're in terms of charting. we can at least get some of the major levels kind of whatever.

alert set, lawn, lines drawn, and obviously we'll go through some of the major markets and then whatever you folks particularly want to look into as a side story, if you've been playing Tupperware For this short squeeze, there's literally a tup. Tup is the ticker symbol. It's the Tupperware company. you know.

like where we store those leftovers that we say we're gonna eat for dinner the next day and then we never do and then it sits there for weeks and then it gets mold and then your fiance is like why didn't you throw that out and I was like I thought you wanted me to save it because we were going to be eating dinner and then we went out and said and wasted more money and now there's just Tupperware with old food and molding it and then you just toss it and you just go buy other Tupperware because you don't want to get black mold in your face. that thing that company. Well apparently it was really shorted and it just keeps going up and up and up. And even the Wall Street Journal is now pointing out how just the amount of options on it.

they're just blowing up like we're seeing a good old-fashioned like Gamma Squeeze short squeeze and we know how these end As much as it goes up, it ends up coming back down. So please, if you're playing it, don't overstate your welcome. But as the momentum still to the upside, ride it. ride it.

ride it because you never know how high it could possibly go. All right. So on that note, we're going to be looking at it. but some other things to talk about: Stock futures Falls Wall Street's Busiest Earnings Week continues.

So yes, I want to talk about that? But first, if you didn't hear the sad, sad new Paul AKA Pee Wee Herman Legendary comedic actor passed away at the age of 70. apparently he had a pretty private battle with cancer. So super sad, but just wanted to pay a little bit of respect to him today. I mean growing up I saw a lot of his work I mean some of my I think early's comedy TV He seems like to be on a lot of things that uh, like when you're home sick when you were in like second third grade and you're just watching like the four channels that you have I feel like I saw him a lot.

so uh, definitely a little bit of a special place in my own childhood. So shout out to PeeWee Herman a dude who made so many people laugh. So many people laugh. Definitely an absolute Legend So Some sad stories.

Uh, from that yesterday now bringing it back to the market. Yes, very, very busy week for earnings. So it was last week, so before the market opened today, we heard from Pfizer Uber Norwegian we're going to be going over those actually also Merck and JetBlue after the market closes today AMD Devin Starbucks Pinterest microstrategy kind of just keeps going on and on and on. Wednesday we have CVS they actually just announced some a plan big layoff.

We also have PayPal Shopify Qualcomm Oxy Unity and Robin Hood and Etsy on Thursday we have Amazon Apple coinbase DraftKings Airbnb it just keeps going and going and going. and then next week I think the main one from next, it's gonna end up being Disney but we'll talk about that when the time's a little bit closer. So in terms of the ones that came out today JetBlue Cuts Forecasts on shift to international travel end of: American Airlines Partnership So if you look at J Blue, Uh, they came in at 45 cents when they were expecting 44 and their revenue was perfectly in line, so nothing too crazy there. Uber swings to surprise profit as ridership reaches new record.

Honestly, this is a good useless surprise because I did not expect Uber to be doing so well right now, but their popularity, it's pretty evident. referred Uber Records first Gap Operating profit so that's impressive Uber crushing it across the board So just want to let you know there: Pfizer Going into the world of Biotech Pfizer piece on earnings but Revenue misses as Rona product sales plummet. No. Sherlock So earnings per share 67 cents versus 57 Revenue 12.73 versus an expectation of 13.27 Who expected it to be this high? Who? like what's going on? Why? Why did people think it would be so high? That's ridiculous.

Obviously this is the whole getting Jabs thing is starting to fall off. Uh, obviously the cash cow that Pfizer had Johnson and Johnson Moderna and probably many other pharmaceutical places. Obviously that plays over. So I'm kind of confused why people were that optimistic about it.

Obviously, with respect to earnings, there's also a lot of other big announcements going on. So overnight I was in the Discord this morning. we were talking a little bit about potential for the sell-off so in Australia they were expecting a right increase, but it actually didn't They decided to keep it the same. So a little bit of a surprise there this morning at 10 A.M We get the ISM Manufacturing PMI number and also at 10 A.M we're going to get the Joltz Job Openings number.

So for me knowing that these things are coming out, I'm not going to be trading before 10 a.m today I Want these numbers because both of these, especially together have the impact to move the market up to move the market down. especially with the weird close yesterday a lot of bearishness from about whatever 2 A.M Until this point, strangeness is definitely going on. So for me personally I'm going to be waiting for that to come out uh comes out at 10 A.M today. Just so you know, tomorrow we're going to get crew we're going to get ADP non-farm employment change.

We're also going to get more PMI on Thursday and then we're going to get the unemployment report this: Friday So not only do we have a bunch of earnings, two massive companies Apple Amazon and other ones involved, but we also have a pretty important macroeconomic of like event announcements this week as well. So lots going on now. I Get it. Yesterday was a bit boring.

In fact, it was pretty boring right until the end of the day if he caught that. congratulations, it's a little bit of a D-gen trade I Hope you crushed it, but we've also seen boring. Went Mondays for the past like two to three weeks and really the excitement is kind of more so focused on like the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. So I'm hoping we actually get some nice nice moves this week.

One thing that could be moving in is basically all the unemployment numbers or the employment numbers depending on how you look at it and the Fed's interpretation right? at least the Market's interpretation of how they think the Fed's going to be thinking about the employment numbers. Especially because in the last Fomc meeting which concluded on Wednesday of last week Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed was basically saying we are clearly clearly clearly focusing on employment numbers and a lot. Well, the market right now is telling us that their base expectation for September is no rate hike. So that's what's going on.

But obviously this week we're going to get a better idea of really what's happening in the employment picture. Is the labor market so tight? Is it starting to falter? what's going on there? So it all kind of comes down to the September Fomc meeting, and that's what people are going to be telegraphing forward to try to understand and be like. Okay, we got good or bad numbers. What do we think that means for the next Fomc? Meaning, as of now as I'm talking to you at 9 12 on August 1st based on the current data.

and obviously we're about to get more data based on the current data, it does seem as if the FED will most likely pause coming to September. The math of the situation right now is indicative of the fact that this rate height cycle might be at its peak and we might just stay at this current level for a bit. My current base case is no more rate hikes from here now. Obviously, depending on how information comes in, that can clearly be change.

But as of now, it does seem as if we're at the peak of this rate hike cycle. Now, it's going to be really difficult to track some of this data and follow it because it's backward looking. So what are you looking for for that forward-looking indicator? Is it the senior loan officer opinion survey that we get out at two? Is it some of the Ism surveys that we get later in the week? Well, Lisa You know I Think my favorite near-term indicator you know where we're going to be over the next six, say six nine months is actually consumer confidence. Uh, you know the conference board measure in particular confidence at the end of the day, particularly in the context of this debate: Recession? No recession.

Because at the end of the day of recession is a loss of Faith You know, consumers lose faith that they're going to hold on to their job and they pack it in. stop spending. and and of course, businesses lose faith that they can sell whatever it is that they produce and they start lying off. We get into this kind of self-reinforcing cycle, and historically when confidence starts to move South in a big way, in a consistent way.

Not too soon thereafter, we go into recession. But as you know, we've got some data points last week from the conference board and the University of Michigan survey and they they all look pretty good. I mean in fact, confidence and proof So you know, uh, hard to say what the world looks like a year from now, but I I think I can state with a high level of confidence through the end of this year we're going to remain recession free. If that's the case case, then what does that say about the ability for the Central Bank of the United States the Federal Reserve to really affect some sort of change in the economic condition? In other words, are we looking at a U.S economy that's pretty insensitive to interest rate increases and may actually have a much higher terminal rate because it can keep chugging along regardless of the fastest rate hiking cycle going back some 40 years? Yeah, I'm not worried about that.

I mean inflate. The key here is inflation and inflation's coming in in a pretty graceful way. I mean uh, and all the trend lines look pretty good I mean I forecast lots of things. some of those things I feel very confident in some not so much.

this I feel very confident and I think inflation is going to come in. We know vehicle prices are going to decline. We know the cost of the growth in the cost of housing Services is going to slow. We know electricity prices are going to come in.

so I think inflation is coming in here pretty nicely to the degree that the Federal Reserved that doesn't have to do anything, they've done all they need to do. we're at the terminal rate. we're good a money good. So I just leave things alone and let it let the economy you know do its thing and I think we'll be fine I Said this before and I feel it's important for me to say it again.

but I I mean it became a joke in itself. It was a joke when everyone's like oh, soft landing and then the memes and the gifts of planes flying into the side of a mountain and we were all bagging on the Fed and everyone. and it. It's shocking.

It's emotionally distressing that they might be able to pull this off like how Wild Is that the entire world Uh, professional retail Everyone looked at the Fed and we were all just saying, you don't know what you're doing, you've bitten off more than you can chew, and now there's a legitimate chance that they could take care of inflation without. Like some cataclysmic recession, it blows my mind. It blows my mind. I'll be the first to admit it with all of you that I was there.

uh, happily leading the charge, just making fun of them day in and day out. And now we're here. and now we're here. Just kind of saying oh wow, they actually might know their job.

They might be able to pull off what they're telling us. Um, I mean it's not done yet. You're getting way ahead of yourself. They will Not pull this off like okay, obviously there's still time I'm saying relative to how we were all thinking about this six months ago, it seems like the odds of their success have really increased.

Six months ago, everyone's like dude, we are screwed Buckle UPS because we're going to the depths of Valhalla and now it's like dude, are they actually gonna pull it off And now obviously there's still a lot of time left in this game. According to the FED itself, they're not expecting the inflation rate to come back down to two percent until the end of really the start of 2020 95 like we have a year and a half from now. So even their conjecture is like, okay, like maybe the first chunk of inflation is the easiest and it's that last one percent that's like can prove to be difficult, That's totally possible. Totally totally totally possible.

Um, who knows. Maybe it's gonna be like a swing. Maybe we're just always perpetually on the wrong side of it of when things are looking good, we're all negative thinking they'll never pull it off and then all of a sudden hit Trends in our way and we all start to think oh wow, they're gonna pull it off and then it's actually way worse than that. So maybe just we're perpetually on the wrong side.

Totally possible. Um, but I will fully admit as probably many of us in here could do I Didn't even think that they would be able to have like this much success. referring to the FED blows my mind. but obviously I know there's a lot of time left in the game.

I mean just this morning I'm reading about like how crazy high our debts got and how big the deficit is. what's going on with our interest payments I was showing that to you yesterday of how like we're over. Um, like just we're not just linearly growing. we are our interest payments on our debt.

It's exponential growth. Uh I mean the amount we add to our total debt in like one year is what we added in the first like 200 plus years of being a country. like the things that go on right now like in the background I Get it. It's not like a perfect Rosy picture and everything's great and blah blah blah.

but just it's specifically with the commentary on inflation and quantitative tightening. You Could argue be like well Matt Don't forget they kind of blew up some banks because of what was going on with bonds and that's fair. It wasn't like everyone remained unscathed in this scenario, but I think a lot of people's base case was far worse than what we're currently seeing like I Get it? You could argue that because of the Fed and what went with on with bonds and what's going on with yields yields up bonds down a lot of people. A lot of these.

Banks especially these Regional Banks weren't really in the right Bond position and then they had to take unconsiderable losses. So I get it. You could be like, well, that's pretty much because of the Fed So really, within a two to three month period, we saw some of the biggest bank blobs we've actually ever seen historically. So like I get it.

It's not like they completely didn't like screw up anything but I think our base case. Um, it's one thing when it's specific to companies. but in terms of what we're feeling as just like the average American like when we're thinking of recessions or depressions. Um, we're at least not experiencing it yet.

So fingers crossed that we don't have to. Did you see meet Kevin video on AMC Ape I did not I didn't know he made one I didn't know he was even still talking about it I thought he was kind of done with it. Um, the way so so many people are. uh I'll have to watch it later Doug Was it good? Was it bad? Was it worthwhile to watch? Um, what's happening with Nicola No idea.

but what is exciting is what's happening with Tup. So I definitely want to be talking about that. This is up another 22. Look at Tup in, where are we at right now? It's up 678 in two weeks.

A little over two weeks. How ridiculous. How absolutely ridiculous is this movement right here? I Have no position I'm not long I'm not short I Don't have calls I don't have puts I don't have anything to do with it but I can tell you it is an interesting watch because it looks like a pure short squeeze gamma squeeze combo of the two whatever you want to call it. Um, I'm leaning a little bit more on the gamma squeeze side of things just because of the craziness and call options that no one expected to be in the money but are now in the money.

Short Interest: 30 Cost to borrow 134 Utilization maxed out at 100 so there's shorts in it. We see two different groups getting completely overrun. calls sellers so options, market makers, all the people selling calls which are options market makers because it's a single dealer market and then also there is a considerable short interest that these players are getting overrun as well. Uh, and now it's building up momentum.

It's it's This is turning into the worst nightmare for the people who are betting against it, so it's always fun to watch those things. I Once again, have no position I Guess my question to you is how many of you are playing this right now I Just want to know the scale of degeneracy that's currently going on in here. What is our what's the scale of degeneracy in here? Um Kevin Called it a scam. It basically is.

yeah, but he said that a while ago I mean Kevin and I both actually were in a Twitter space called talking about Ape being a scam before ape was even released. and now people are just mad that we ended up being right. But I don't understand why they're mad at us. Shouldn't they be mad at Adam Aaron for scamming people? But anyway.

Uh. waiting. Um, more so looking at Tup. I Do want to remind everyone if you're into up if you're in it.

Congratulations. ride the trend but do not dime in hand. One of the most nefarious Concepts that was ever spread in the ape. Community was Diamond handing.

It really was because what's the concept? Hold forever. Why would you hold forever? Don't you want to make money at a certain point? these High Flyers when something squeezes. Whether it's a short squeeze, a gamma squeeze, a combo of the two. When these things come up, they do not stay there.

If anything, you could argue, they come down more rapidly than they even went up. So please be careful with this type of a thing. Do not have the mindset that you're just going to arbitrarily hold forever and then like you'll have a bountiful amount of time to get out. You will Not.

These things happen. They have massive pumps and then they have even larger dumps. This is not going to stay at these elevated levels. You're going to have a small period of time to get out before the trend actually changes.

So pay attention to it. Whether you want to use a mental trailing stop loss, an actual trailing stop loss, some sort of other Trend following Mantra style system have at it for me: I wouldn't have a profit Target if I were in Tup right now I would have no profit Target I would just keep moving my trailing stop loss up to important recent lows I would just keep dragging it up behind me and as long as it keeps trending great I'm in it. but as soon as it breaks Trend based on however you want to Define it. That's exactly when I would be getting out and then I wouldn't think about it again I'd be like okay, time to move on with my life.

This concept of diamond handing it costs a lot of people. A lot of money. A lot of people, a lot of money. Um, you could Diamond hand I guess like it depends on how you really interpret it because if you're saying I'm Diamond handing but then your argument is like the trend still intact.

Yeah, but if you're saying Diamond handing as in you're just buying and never planning on selling, well, why are you in the market then what's the point in getting in the market if you're never going to sell. That's stupid because you're in the market to uh, obviously you want to buy low, sell high. So to get your money, you need to be selling at some point. Um, if you're just like no I'm just buying and never ever gonna sell, why are you in the market? You shouldn't be in the market? It doesn't really make sense.

Um, someone's asking. is it I'm trying to figure out if this is the real account here. looks like folks, we might have a little bit of a UFC MMA star in here. Is this the real account on YouTube Legit? yo.

What up man? I was literally just watching a couple of your videos on uh Tick Tock Dude, you have some hilarious lines. but anyway, Piton, we could take a look at P-town for you. Foreign? That's awesome. I was literally like just before this I don't know I don't know if it was yours or people were cutting it but Piton potentially on the edge of a Breakout uh let's do this.

Let's do a little bit of technicals on this for the man, the myth, the legend. all right. Here's how I would look at it. if this ends up working right there.

you have kind of a breakdown level from April of 2023 you had this low try to bounce off of it, ended up cratering through, made a fresh low, then double bottom to May and ever since then you have higher lows with the exact same high. So let's think about what that actually means. Psychologically, it means every single time it comes down the Bulls the people who are attempting to buy it. Whether you're looking at this one, it's always just relative to your recent highs.

Lows: All that good jazz. Um, the Bulls are getting more aggressive. They're buying it earlier in May they were buying it at seven dollars in June late June they were buying it at the mid sevens and then a little bit higher, a little bit higher and then in Late July they were buying it in the lower eight. So that's just bullish aggression.

Now obviously the Bears whether they're people shorting it or if you have people who are trying to take profits, that's all happened at the exact same level of like the upper nines just below 10 and we're knocking on the door. So if anything, in terms of risk reward, if I was bullish on Peloton I have no Peloton position at the moment I Try to buy it closer to this trend line just because if I'm wrong I could always risk the recent low and then the reward is actually this breakout that has been struggling in the upper nines from the upper nines. I would then just be looking up here at the next clear major level of 12.. So even if you're somehow able to get in around nine, you could end up risking about a dollar, maybe not even 75 cents for a potential upside of 3.33 So in terms of risk reward? like if we're just looking at it in like a pure math scenario, let's say if you get in I don't know, Let's just even call it 925 and then let's put this target all the way up here.

I mean oops, 2.73 risks to reward. So if you were to take trades like this time and time again, even within accuracy around 40, you're going to end up being net profitable over the long run. Uh, Piton has had a rough fall down ever since. like the world of Rona Kinda like it was way way higher.

Let's go to the weekly. Um, they've hit a rough patch obviously ever since then. But in terms of risk reward, your kind of your argument is basically you're just buying at a low. So even if you're like no, no I think Piton comes back I know they were having some issues with, uh, what was it actually not even what was their treadmills that I think they got into some legal issues I think some like infants were losing their life and stuff.

So that was a bit negative and obviously the revenue really plummeted when the Rona period ended. Shoulder head shoulder. Classic sell-off. Like just a topping pattern.

but if you were to look at it now, you're like, well, in terms of risk reward. If you think the company comes back, you are very, very close to a bottom and even if you're wrong, you're not risking that much. You could argue right here. You could get in with a risk sub two dollars per share with short-term and upside of three.

and if you're really confident about it, if this is a medium or long-term hold, honestly, it could go even longer. So risk reward just pure math I Think it's interesting I really really do another one in that same I Guess Thought that we've been talking about a bit is actually Disney Just because the question is, you're just buying it at a low. so if you're wrong and it makes a new low, you just get out. But if you're right, I mean the potential upside.

Uh, Disney Actually, recently having a pop I'd be watching some of these down trend lines like same thing with Piton like it's a it's a similar scenario in which it's a well-known company over the past couple years severely beaten down for obviously different reasons. but now it's just a question of risk reward. What is your potential upside? Is it? How much more is it than your downside? And right now in both of these cases I Don't know I See a lot. Let's see how much is piton still being shorted? Curious Peloton Peloton Peloton Peloton Piton is so short interest of 11 utilization pretty low, so costs to borrow really low so it is being shorted, but not to the most noteworthy degree.

Um, nothing. Nothing too too nuts, but definitely a little bit of a short interest in there. Uh, but Peloton I would just Target as close to either I don't know. Basically, nine somewhere between 9, 25 and 825 would be my Target and I would literally just be risking this 825 level.

and if I'm wrong and I get busted out well, then I would try again. Maybe closer to seven, but the game of just minimizing the risk? Uh, there's not really much risk and there's definitely on a relative basis more reward. But another thing I would note here is it really hasn't done much since 22. Uh, May of 22.

So kind of a small range. so I do like the concept of buying it at the bottom of the range just because you're not taking on much risk and worst case scenario, you write it up to the top side. but maybe they have a really good earnings. Their earnings is coming out on Thursday August 24th.

So if something crazy happens, maybe it gets it above this range. But overall, its range has been small for a while ever since it got absolutely brutalized here. Uh, it just hasn't moved the most since then. So that's one major thing I would be looking for is either breakdown or obviously fingers crossed a break out of this upper range so a break and a hold of 16 I think would actually on a larger time frame denote like a big shift in Peloton and buyers coming back in.

Um, actually I would even set an alert there if this gets above and holds above 16-17 Um, this really? Ever since What? January of 21 all the way down, we might be getting into a whole new regime for it. so that's what. I'd be watching on Piton. That's what I would be seeing.

What do we have? The market did just open, so on that note, dignity, ding, ding ding The casino is open. Best of luck to all. Play responsibly if not have fun. All right, Just so everyone knows, there are announcements coming out at 10 A.M today.

So I'm not going to be doing anything too hardcore degenerate until we get those reports I Just want to know what's going on. Tup definitely like some I don't know who's squeezing it I Don't know if it's retail I Don't know if it's institutions I Don't know if it's institutions doing it and then kind of going under the cover fire of retail. but Tup Tupperware Yes, those things that you just store your leftovers in has been ripping. This is a full on squeeze.

It is up 613 in seven trading days. Like I said, it's heavily shorted so the shorts are getting squeezed out. There's a lot of action on the option chain, so you have a lot of these options. market makers getting their asses handed to them when they're playing these degenerate calls.

It's just wild stuff. wild stuff. Uh thanks. Grateful By the way, Best book you have ever read for trading.

Um, is it cool If I I could shoot you my list? uh I mean I have some of my favorite trading books over here. Is it cool if I shoot you a DM on Twitter and I could just send you the list and kind of get a better idea of what type of training you're looking for and then I could send you those. Would that be easiest? I hope you're on Twitter it would be embarrassing at this point. or should I say x now? oh God I'm gonna X message you all right? let me see.

I will here I'll shoot you a DM right now. uh oh wait. I don't know. Um so I don't think I can because you're following one person.

What is your Twitter account? man, what is your Twitter account one person? um because of that I can't DM you so if you can DM me it'll start our conversation I'm just Matt underscore course and then that'll be able to do it. Oh that's funny. If you can just shoot the intro my DMs are open and then I'll send you a book list. Uh, phenomenal.

but no, there's a lot of good ones out there if you want to be a degenerate options. Trader There's options trading books if you want to be a future. Trader if you want to be a systematic Trader If you want to be more of like a medium to long-term investor I mean I just have shelves of them and we'll definitely get some your way. Um, the O before the H.

This is me right here. Kohrs I'm still long on tulips, but shoot me that and I'll get it to you today. I'll just get a better understanding of the kind of training or investing you want to be interested in. We'll get you a short list of things.

Awesome! Market Actually opening up pretty strong. Look how it saved itself right below the breakdown. This is one of the coolest things. Uh, talking to some of my buddies here in: Wall Street These algorithms.

Dude, they love highs and lows. So many people. but why similar to Disney Similar to Um Peloton If you're buying at a low, think about it. You're not taking on much risk.

If you are wrong and you have the discipline to admit you're wrong, then you just cut it. But the upside is so much greater. If you're continually buying at a low, continually selling at a high. If in terms of risk reward, you're taking on baby baby risk baby.

risk a paper cut. If you're wrong, you just cut. You're like, oh okay. but on the flip side, right here in the opening minute, in the opening seconds, you're gonna be like nope.

I'm buying right above it and you're now already up 75 cents. Crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy. So on a larger time frame, that's exactly what I would expect with Peloton I Would want it as close to these lows as I can Disney I Think is interesting. Actually, we might as well go through this lift at this point.

Apple They have their earnings after the market on Thursdays Probably not much of a play till then. We now are working on our fourth inside day. Pretty indecisive. Everyone's waiting for their earnings Microsoft earnings kind of messed it up, but ever since then, we're just not really moving Tesla consolidating.

honestly I think Tesla Once again this argument of risk reward I think if Tesla pushes 270 and you're okay with risking the low of whatever bar created that I Think there's an interesting upside Gap they'll play to this low on Wednesday the 19th to 289.52 So I know Tesla the market reacted very negatively to their earnings I Get it? I Understand that that happened. but I Honestly, really think that there could be an interesting short-term play there? Nvidia I mean after this discussing Rip, it just keeps going I I Don't know how you could bet against it until there's like a serious breakdown Netflix actually held on really strong enough yesterday. The market was funky all day and Netflix somehow actually outperformed Netflix putting in a green day while Meta got particularly messed up even though they had a good earnings. so we're just in a high volatility period same day that Apple reports after the market closes on Thursday this Thursday Amazon is also reporting uh, seeing a lot of strength going up into Amazon The major thing that I would personally be looking to there, and it's the thing that I always look to with Amazon is what's going on in the world of cloud.

Like are they continuing to grow at a hyper pace? and I mean Amazon Their AWS has just been absolutely dominant with Microsoft right behind them and then Google behind both of those players. But that's the thing I'm going to be listening for. Um, you guys did bring up that interesting case of yell yesterday. a trucking company that just like kind of said they're going to bankruptcy and actually now it's up.

So some weird this is just a high volatility bankruptcy play I wouldn't personally be touching it. Um, but you guys brought up some interesting questions of if Trucking in general because we know that UPS they just avoided a giant union strike we know FedEx has had some updates um Trucking and like it's massive impact on the infrastructure of the US Really? Des definitely needs to be looked at, 100 needs to be looked at and studied. Um I just I Don't think I'd personally play those trucking companies but thinking of them as obviously necessary for so many other businesses if that world starts to go until there definitely could be some negative, bearish ramifications. Um, please talk SNMP No one has a clue what it's doing or why SNMP An oil and gas pipeline I I am among the group that has no idea what is I mean look how smart like this thing is barely traded and that of nowhere it's already traded.

It's average daily volume in the first eight minutes. Um, when something goes from absolutely nothing to just absolutely gangbusters. I'm just gonna avoid it. Someone knew something going in to close.

look at this. Limit Up Limit Up Limit Up Limit Up limit up. Probably some form of an announcement and then it's even higher. I Don't think I would be playing it.

Just a little bit of a strange, strange strange situation. Uh, can you look at the tup squeeze I mean tup is up. This is definitely squeezing I missed it I'm not going to chase it now. Once again, it always comes back to risk reward.

But if you got into it early, congrats, Ride it. Ride it. Absolutely destroy it. Uh, let me see, let me uh, where are we at I got your DM By the way, I'll follow up a little later on today.

uh Market Opening up somewhat strong. where are we at on the Spy Here's the overall: Market Saving it herself at the low, perfectly bouncing off of it. Let's see if it holds or if it's a little bit of a fake out the cues actually performing a little bit worse. The Q's definitely below the low and actually can't get above it running into it as a bit of resistance.

So this is when watching in the overall market. and Tech if you look at the energy sector flat if you look at the financial sector flat a little bit up if you look at utilities if you look at Healthcare if you look at Industrials Industrials are the only thing that's really up today, the market getting a little bit of a bounce. but folks, nothing's really going on right now. everyone is waiting for this.

I Don't think there's going to be a particular reason to do any I guess active trades or degeneracy Until we get these numbers, we have about 19 minutes to go until we get the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing prices and the jolts job openings. It's this final one that I think the Market's really going to be reacting to and a lot of the times. To be fair, you do see an immediate jolt because of the jolts report when this number comes out, but this time around I've been expecting an even larger one and it's exclusively because of what Jerome Powell The Chairman of the FED said last week. He basically said, hey, we're really focused on jobs.

We want to know exactly what's going on in the world of jobs or is it growing? is it not? What's the labor force participation? What's the Young unemployment rate? So because the Chairman of the Fed, the dude who runs monetary policy just last week, said we're paying attention to jobs and this is the first major jobs report since he said that, yeah, I think the Market's definitely waiting for that. So unfortunately, that means we have an awkward 18 minutes to kill until we get those reports. But I don't think there's anything too crazy we need to be doing with the overall market and tell them Tup showing massive, massive volatility. The only thing Green on my watch list right now is Apple everything else is down like about 0.75 one percent something along those lines I Haven't done anything yet personally.

I'm not going to be doing anything until we get that report. I Just want to know how the market reacts to it. Is there any other High Flyers that everyone's watching any other? High Flyers That really did. How are you just not throwing your entire account into zero DTE calls on this Apple Holding green.

That's probably why the cues are getting a little bit of a pop here. Definitely lifting up the tech sector. Uh, would we just got puts at 456.80 You're batting against this double top. hey, um to AMC AMC of course is AMC actually doing anything? Hey, it's green.

Is that 14 cents ape is down? Because it is a stupid bad idea. It's pretty much fake money. Kava Kava down four percent Kava getting hit they just recently IPO didn't they? Yeah, not long ago Kava a lot of people wondering if it's going to be the next Chipotle uh Cava Honestly from its debut at 42. a nice game up 30.

not a bad deal for one month 30 I guess a month and a half at this point? Uh popped up double bottom once again. Opportunities to buy, minimize your risk, minimize your risk. You're getting in. look at bottoms, look at tops.

Um I Wholeheartedly believe wholeheartedly believe this. The concept of being a contrarian will work If you want to know more about like how you can actually like hone in on being a contrarian in the market basically fading what everyone else is doing I Highly, highly recommend My interview that just got posted yesterday with Jason Shapiro he was profiled in Jack Schwager's book The Unknown Market Wizards Jack Schwager has written multiple books Market Wizard Market Wizard Market Wizard where he just profiles kind of some of the most successful. Fame Traders well you a year or two came out with one where it's unknown Market Wizards and Jason Shapiro was one of those people. so I read his profile in the book, reached out to him on the interwebs and just posted that interview yesterday.

He he basically uses the commitment of Traders report which is something filed every single week in the world of Futures Trading where you're split into three groups, you have small speculators, large speculators, and commercials. and that's something. you have to tell the world what you are when you create a Futures Trading account. so large speculators think of Wall Street Banks all that thing, uh, retail Traders that's you, that's me, that's small speculators and then commercials.

So in the world of Futures if you are um, hedging your orange Operation your orange farm in Florida you would hedge it in the Futures market. so you can kind of get an insight to where people are placed who are within the industry. Same thing with gold mining Silver Mining copper, soy wheat. you can see the Growers the miners.

You can see how their position versus large and small speculators. And then when you start to look at the odds that 90 95 of people fail at active trading, it kind of makes sense to do the opposite of all these people who are commonly losing. And that's his whole methodology. and he said 20 years of profitable trading every single year.

20 years straight he's been a profitable Trader At one point he was managing up to 600 million dollars as a CTA commodity training advisor just doing some pretty impressive stuff. He's kind of like a no guy, but anyway, the interview it's posted on Rumble it's also posted on the Evergreen YouTube channel. It's in this description of the video if you want to check it out. Uh, but that's what.

Jason Shapiro A guy who's still managing millions and millions of dollars and he said 20 years of success by just doing the opposite of whatever else is going on. My favorite part from the interview is I asked them Kind of like what he does on a daily basis. like what's his daily trading process. His daily trading process is part of his daily trading process is watching the Cmvc and he just does the opposite of what some of his like favorite people to watch on CNBC do because he's noticed that they're just perpetually wrong.

So the way we have the joke of Jim Cramer is perpetually wrong Pelosi is perpetually right. Um, that type of a thing. Well, with him, he's noticed people on CNBC Beyond Jim Cramer who's always just commonly wrong and he just does the opposite. What's the story behind The T-u-p Squeeze Uh, the story is more so that it started to build up momentum and then obviously when something gets a good gain and then people notice that it's being shorted, it starts to make its rounds on Reddit it starts to make its rounds on fin Twit and then from there it kept going up which then got a lot of retail degens to YOLO into.

um, options. In fact the options chain on Tup. It's just getting absolutely crazy right here. Look at this.

This is from a Wall Street Journal reporter. Look at how much options trading has exploded in the past week on Tup. So you're getting to this point where you're now having a gamma squeeze Not and a gamma squeeze. Could that even lead to like a full-on short squeeze? To for those of you who are like, dude, what are you talking about with the gamma squeeze, The short squeeze Like what does that possibly mean Well, you know what short squeeze is When a lot of people are betting against the stock and it goes up.

they have to throw in the towel because they lost. So for them to get out of their losing position, they have to buy the stock back. Because to go short, you first sell stock and you close the position by buying it back. It's the opposite of when you buy stock and close it Go long.

It's literally the inverse. So anyway, if you sell stock wanting it to go down and it goes up and you're wrong and you lose money, you have to buy it back to get out of the position to admit you were wrong. But inherently you're buying stock which pushes the stock up more. And obviously we've seen this historically where it can get out of hand because if there's a lot of people who are short, well, the first guy who throws his towel and he's like, you know what, I was wrong.

Well, it goes up a little bit there, but it might go up enough now that there's more pressure on another store and like, okay, I'm wrong And then obviously you get this cascading effect of it going up and up and up. So that's a short squeeze. Now what Gamma squeeze is because of the world of options. So when you're trading stock, there is a theoretical chance that if I buy stock, you could be selling it To me.

If I sell stock, there's a theoretical chance that you could be buying it off of me. when you are trading equities stock, it is referred to as a multi-dealer market. Sometimes you're playing against market makers such as Citadel or Virtue, but you could also be playing against Banks or institutions or a hedge fund or a high frequency Trader or another retail. Trader It's a multi-dealer market, as in, a lot of people are buying and selling and you could theoretically be connected to all of them depending on how you do it.

Options are not like that. options are referred to as a single dealer market. So the way, at a casino, when you're playing poker, you're playing against all the other players. Okay, that's easy.

We get that. Well, if you're playing options, it's more like Blackjack where you're only playing against one dealer. It's a single dealer. Market If you're buying a call, an options Market maker is selling you the call, they're writing you the call and the same thing with puts if you're buying or selling the options.

Market Maker is taking the other side of the trade. Hedge funds aren't retail Traders Aren't anyone in between? They're not. You have to be an options Market Maker to take the other side of an options trade you if I Buy or sell a call or put I'm never ever playing against any of you or a hedge fund or anything like that I'm playing against the dealer. It's a single dealer market, so in that situation, think about it.

If you look at something like Tup and it's ripping ripping ripping. You have a bunch of people. Whether it's hedge funds, whoever retail, it doesn't matter, They're like, dude, this is going up. it might be another squeeze.

There's a high short interest, so they're buying calls. So if you have a bunch of the public buying calls because of the excitement of it going up, that means that a lot of these option market makers are selling calls. Which means that as it goes up their book, basically their risk is starting to increase. So for them to hedge that risk because they sold too many calls that are now in the money and they're legally on the hook for that.

For them to hedge their book, they have to go out to the market and buy the underlying underlying security. So in Tup's case, as it started to rip, people got excited. They yoloed into out of the money calls that somehow went into the money. and then the options market makers are looking around and like dude, we are on the hook for a lot right now.

A lot A lot. So to mitigate that risk, they go out and buy the stock. So once again you're getting more buying pressure which causes it to go up which causes more people to YOLO into calls which causes them to have to hedge their book which is involve of them buying stock which inherently pushes it higher. So in my first example of a short squeeze and in the second example of a gamma squeeze, you just both have situations where it is getting to a point that it's a cascading effect That's like really, the similarity is like all of a sudden you're just throwing a little bit more gasoline onto the fire and then it gets absolutely out of control.

That's inherently the nature of any squeeze. Whether it's a gamma squeeze in the options Market whether it's a short squeeze and obviously those two things play into each other, a short squeeze can prompt a gamma squeeze which can prompt a short squeeze like they basically just buying pressure. We have different names for them because like you're trying to delineate where the buying pressure is coming from. but at the end of the day, all it is is buying pressure.

And obviously if you have an imbalance of buying relative to selling, the price goes up. That's just classic equilibrium. So Tup, pay attention to it. We are like there is clear, quantifiable evidence that there's a bit of a gamma squeeze going on right now.

Tup options activity this week. Huge explosion in calls I mean you're almost pushing 80 000. remember every single contract represents a hundred shares. You're talking about 8 million shares of Tup that are potentially on the hook for this week alone.

And then if you look at how many um and shares, it's out. It's shares. Outstanding. It's 354.

but then if you're looking at the free flow, it's basically just over 300. That's a considerable percentage to be on the hook for one week one week. Uh, I wish I got into it because it's such a funny story. Um, I'm definitely I Hope you guys get it right.

If you're in it, whatever you're doing full-on degeneracy I Hope it plays out. but please be careful with it. Understand that this stuff does not last forever. There's no way it could last forever.

It doesn't just keep going. you need to at a certain point. I'm not the biggest fan of a price Target in a squeeze scenario, but I Do believe I Do believe a trend following situation where you're like, okay, I'm gonna lag it by whatever percent or if you're gonna look at recent lows and just use that as a breakdown to be your signal. Whatever you want to do I think Trend following is best in these types of scenarios, but hey, have at it.

Um, full-on degeneracy Matt with the 40s need a haircut? Geezer style going on. Just missing a toothpick and pack of smokes in his sleeves. Was that really the style of the 40s? I'm a fan. my hair is out of place I Got too excited talking about shorts.

Honestly, part of my hair problem right now if I'm being completely honest with all of you is uh I ran out of my Old Spice pomade and I had to use my backup hair gel and the backup hair gel does not have the same holding strength so you guys are gonna have to bear with me today until I'm able to make a trip to like CVS or Target or Walgreen it's You guys Might have noticed that a lot of my aura was off today and my aura was off because my life is off and the reason my life is off right now is because I simply just do not have the correct pomade. Um, so yeah, it's a it's a big issue. It is a yeah, not the backup. Yeah, it is.

It is the backup. Uh I Hate to report to you but it is fully the backup. Uh PMI is out. How's it out? It comes out at 10 A.M Doesn't it am? I Losing my mind? Um.

coming out Uh. five minutes, Five minutes ISM PMI ISM Prices Jolt's job Openings: Uh I Don't think PMI is out? Is it Am I Losing my mind I Think it comes out at 10 A.M Market Internals Worthwhile to point out: red Negative: Bearish I Get that the Spy is pushing right now. but if you look at the internals to the New York Stock Exchange which this red line or sometimes when it's green, it's just the aggregate of a lot of the internals. uh, favoring the Bears at the moment.

So even though the price has gone up a bit, the New York Stock Exchange is not looking the best out of the gate. not looking the best out of the gate. uh other. and oh dude.

definitely bearish. What is going on? It's really I mean you could see it the best in the Futures Market We pumped right into close. this was the closing bar and then it held into the Asian session and then as soon as the London session started to get going here at 2AM we just absolutely vomited all the way to about 5 30. the Am London session ending at five.

It was just a pure vomit in the London session. Uh, so definitely I mean I think we had a little bit of a market on balance like whatever a weird pop but it just did not hold at all so probably damaging some of those internals. Tup given way given way a little bit. All right.

what do we have? about three minutes, Three minutes, Three minutes. Uh. Ford Restarts: F-150 Lightning Production says demand jumped six-fold after July Price Cuts Whoa I Didn't know it was that popular of a machine. six-fold Uh, rgti what's Rgti? Uh, a company that it gapped up, but it's vomiting.

Wait, why? Why do you want me to look at this? Was there some big announcement or the daily chart? Definitely has some nice momentum? A gap up that didn't hold? Um I don't know where I'd Really feels like the most reasonable place to place your risk is here at a dollar eighty, which is unfortunately 30 percent away. So I don't know if I want to take on that risk. Uh Gap up that didn't hold, but is there some other announcement with it? Spaghetti Spaghetti Computing: You guys have problems. You guys have problems breaking news in Bloomberg when we have Bloomberg Fed Favorite inflation metric cools Pce that was Pce Miami's overflowing septic tanks and trash piles.

Tests appeal to the rich. Well, that's a bummer for them. A huge bummer for them: Chaos Looms has 1.5 trillion student loan Paws Abruptly ends. Is it really abrupt? I don't I don't know about that.

Bloomberg Oh, when the pandemic hit I Don't think it came out of nowhere that they're gonna start repaying. about 20 million borrowers will soon need to start payment student loan payment restart marks in unprecedented event I Mean on the flip side of that, couldn't you argue that the pause marked an unprecedented event I Just don't get how colleges are getting away with this like colleges are getting away scot-free and they're not considered to be the bad guy. It's becoming an argument of like should we pay it should we not pay it Like why can't we look at the colleges for over charging on something that like is just not worth it Um I I'm this concept of trying to fix something like you fix it at the start of the stream, not at the end of the stream. The initial problem is society pressuring people going into college and then on top of that the degrees you get from college mathematically not being worth the debt you're taking on to do it a lot of.

Majors I Know some Majors obviously make a butt ton but it feels like that whole right here. This article probably doesn't talk about it's going to be just talking about like the left and the right fighting and people having moral opinions of do you pay it back or not and whatever. you could have those debates but to me isn't that? A little late in the process feels a a little too far. Downstream I Just colleges I Mean they're We've seen those charts before of how much they inflate relative to actual inflation and it's just not worth it.

I Mean there are legitimately people who go to college, take on six-figure debts and then coming out of college or making 40K it? your interest payments just don't make sense, especially if you got into like a higher interest rate like mathematically just does not work out and I Think that's really hard for some 17 year old in high school to really understand because all they know is that whatever, whether it's Hollywood books shows TV Like whatever, they just know that they're supposed to go to college. whatever that means. Uh, so there's a lot of pressure for them to go to college and they're 17. they they don't have the brain power or the understanding to know what it's like to take on six figures worth of debt.

They don't understand the math of interest payments and how they're never going to get out of it like I I Don't know how it's like allowed that we do that crap Anyway, this number's coming out first. Reaction: Pretty positive breaking news for the month of June Expected. Give it to us. Rick Since one percent up, half one percent, up point five percent.

and if we look at job openings and labor too, however, known as Jolts, that's a Jew number. Expecting a number around 9.6 million? A disappointment. Nine million, Five hundred and eighty two thousand. That is the weakest level going all the way back to April of 2021.

ISM Manufacturing For the month of July Expecting a headline number of 46.9 46.4 hasn't been above coming in a little short: September of 22 instructions on the list for manuals to prices paid. This is a number we'd prefer. Move lower expecting a number around 44 and indeed it. and that was the lightest since these of last year.

employment an important week for employment considering what's coming at the end of the week. and July employment 40. I Want to be like Rick when I grew up? we all do 50 since May when it was 51. we all did before, and if we look at new orders, 47.3 hasn't been above 50 since August of last year.

Interest rates have moved down on those mostly weaker than expected data points, especially on the jolts, and we see that the equity markets seem to like the number David Faber Back to you thank you Rick Santelli And good Tuesday Morning to everybody. Welcome to another hour's walk on the street I'm David Faber with Melissa Lee we're live from post line at the New York Why does Melissa look like this is the last place she wants to be? 32 minutes to be exact and the S P and the NASDAQ both down on the session at this point. Yeah, let's get to Steve Lee Smith our senior economics reporter to help I Just don't. That's mostly weaker than expected.

Uh, numbers. How do they make it so boring? That's the issue. I Was kind of sorry when Rick said that. the Joltz number was a disappointment.

I'm not sure. uh, to the extent that that particular number comes in below expectations. I Think that's a positive, at least for the market in the sense that we know the FED is looking for this number to come down and to show more slack in the job market. Um, so I think maybe that's a good thing and it wasn't really that far off.

so it's It's kind of interesting. He's absolutely Rick was absolutely right. It is a disappointment, as in there are fewer job openings. But the idea of Powell here has been that, uh, you can bring down job openings, not necessarily bring down jobs.

The Ism was a disappointment. There were some Whispers out there. Maybe this thing would return to growth. It's kind of an interesting story out there.

We do hear about strength in the manufacturing sector, some of that propelled by some of the government spending on the programs in the Um Inflation Reduction Act, but we're not seeing it in these numbers. It is interesting that employment also ticked down here. Worrisome. that price is ticked up.

So guys, I'll leave it there. We're in a very interesting spot here. Now that the conventional wisdom is for a soft Landing the the economy has to get this just right. There's now risks on both sides that it goes down too fast or that it speeds up too much.

So we're trying to thread a needle here. I Think this data today is within the bounds of of threading that needle, but we also want to I mean what's going to be difficult too Steve is that the the forward reads on inflation that we're going to be getting will probably fact you know have no more base effects or start to not have those base effects and so inflation will start to show up as hotter than what we have been used to and that could throw a wrench in this whole thing. Yeah, you know that's been something that I think Powell has emphasized the extent to which the market thinks that the uh, reduction of inflation is a straight line down. I Think he's tried to disabuse investors of that idea.

um, he he sees I think inflation is a much more bumpy road. he would use that phrase a couple times. He does think it goes lower over time. Some aspects playing the 30-minute breakout that's what I marked right here.

the higher oil prices we know the higher prices paid in here. there is other Industries it's something that you have to watch. It's going to be a bumpy road and and it's the only thing that worries me is the extent to which the market is priced for the Perfection of this soft landing and doesn't have tolerance on either side of it because it's not going to be a straight line. We're going to get a lot this month though, aren't we? In terms of data, right? Steve Not to mention it ends with you and Jackson Hole I Know we're getting older, but it's okay.

Yeah, we're getting there, we're getting. But here's the thing. Um, uh, we do have this jobs number the end of the month. Again, we're looking for a kind of perfection number: 200 000 uh is the number Some of the early indications we're on this: Thursday We're waiting for some of the other high frequencies, but some of the early high frequency data I've seen has been uh, on the weak side and you know what? I Think the market would cheer that to a point, right? David If you get down to a hundred thousand, maybe that's okay.

below. that might be a medical. General Wait a second. Maybe this economy is weakening and I will say one thing.

I'm not sure the market or even we at CNBC have made enough of that senior loan officer survey. There was some weakness in there. There were some credit crunchy stuff in there to use a an unofficial phrase there that made it look not kind of ominous. In terms of Umbrella, the availability of credit Apple uh-oh being withdrawn Steve Thank you Steve Leesman Well, it's a good way to segue to our next guest.

Aries The market internals are still negative. Credit Company look at things going on, even on that pump. The internals did not go positive today. This might be a brutal fake out.

Assets under management. Be careful. I Really thought this punch private hire would make the internals positive Today the area. Be careful.

Joining us now in a CNBC exclusive is Mike Aragetti who's the President CEO of Aries Good to have you all right. We don't need to listen to this. Uh, after the quarter, don't need to listen to