Foreign step bro. Emotional Damage brother hello hello hello hello and welcome back to another very very fun show. Another very very fun episode of the Mac core show where your Matt encores and you're also the show today. Yeah, you could be Matt and the show I'll be Coors and it's going to work itself out I hope you have on your moon gang LT gray shirt because it's gonna be a little bit of a crazy day.

a little bit of a wild day in fact, because in a mirror minutes, that's how many of those we have until the next inflation report comes out. The old personal Consumption Expenditure Report where it seems as if the Line in the Sand I believe is 4.2 so we'll be diving into that. um, but I'm just happy that we get to conclude not only the week, but the month with our boy Rick centilli I mean it's always always a phenomenal day when you have Rick just spit in straight facts. we know it's going to be a barn burner of a day.

Yesterday was wild, we opened up really high. we ended going really low. Couple things going on. a lot of you in here yesterday brought up the very good point of a recent decision made by the Boj the bank of Japan their Central Bank kind of loosening their death grip that they have on their own yield curve so we could talk a little bit about that.

But if you're looking at the pre-market action right now, we're making some of those losses back and it might keep going. and I just want to give you some facts and figures: I Couldn't sleep in the middle of the night so I decided to dive into the historic performance of the Pce days out of the last 11.. Eight out of those 11 have been green days. Eight out of 11 of the Pce report days have been green days from open and close.

5 out of 11 have been Gap Ups 2 out of 11 have been gapped. Downs In terms of are we are the economists good at predicting what we hit? Well, we don't hit. Three of them have predicted what actually was reported, four of them were low, and four of them were high. So in terms of predicting if inflation's coming in hot, Cool as expected.

No, they're not that good at it, but just from a price action Market Reaction standpoint: Eight out of 11 of these, eight out of 11.. that's pretty good odds having green days once again, with five out of 11 being nice decent. Gap Up So are we going to Gap up today? I Don't know because to Gap up, we'd have to get above where we were yesterday and man, yesterday was just absolutely wild. So I don't know I'm not really thinking that's gonna happen, but hey, when when it comes to the game of the market, why are we making any predictions? Let's just enjoy the ride.

So obviously we're going to talk about inflation, then we're going to be getting into a little bit of a talk of the recent earnings. because we did hear from Procter and Gamble we heard from Exxon and Chevron Uh, they actually kind of missed. but now their price. their prices are coming right back.

So a little bit of an oil update. Then from there we could talk a little bit about currencies and all that good stuff. so it's going to be a good one. TGIF it's Friday July 28th I Hope you're ready for a good one before we get rocking.

Don't forget to absolutely murder, destroy, annihilate, unalive the like button. And also don't forget to subscribe. And with that being said, let's uh, let's kind of turn it on over to the market here. Let's let's turn it on over to the market a little bit here.

Huge vomit yesterday in the spy and the queues. It was brutal. I Mean the cues went from almost 385 all the way down to 375. the Spy went from basically 460 down to 451.50 It was just crazy.

You have currencies just going. Absolutely. Haywire Especially, check out the USD uh Yen pairing. We have oil doing it's oil thing.

I Still think we're going up and hanging out in the low 80s. Oil's been pushing from 67 up to the low 80s. There's a lot going on. A lot of fun.

A lot of fun. So I don't know how you guys are feeling bullish or bearish on the day? Feel free to comment before we get this Pce report, which should be coming out momentarily. Let me speed up to real time. Actually, let's turn on Rick Just because we always love hearing from Rick they're gonna make their band a little bit wider.

They're denying it's a first step toward normalization. but ultimately I think that's what should be coming out right now. we're going to be leaning. Come on? Rick Rick Only 15 seconds.

But is it an indication that they think our Central Bank is about to pause? You know what? I Think that's a very good way to look at it actually because I do think there's a lot more coordination, especially with the Japanese being the most stimulative. And yes, I think you're on to something there precisely. we're at 8 30. East Come on, give us those numbers and it is.

Well, let's start out with the Employment Cost index for the second quarter, expecting 1.1 percent. Very close to that up one percent just to give you an idea, but this series goes back to 1996. The high water mark forever there going back to record keeping was 1.4 and that was in the first quarter of 22.. So even though we are down, it goes down pretty slowly.

Now, if you look at a personal income up half one percent expected, we end up with up three tenths of one percent if you look at personal spending expected up four tenths, it's up a little better at up five tenths of one percent. And there are revisions. Income last month moved from point four to point five, which makes this a deterioration of 210. Spending ramped up also by a tenth from point one to point two in line, which makes point Five up three times for inflation is up a solid 410.10 is pretty good on the real side, considering in the rear view mirror is up one tenth.

That's a slight revision. This is the second best number of the Year outside of January where it was 1.3 Now here they come everybody. Personal consumption expenditure deflator month over month expected up two tens arrives at exactly up two tens. The high water mark there was up one percent in June of 22, and that was the highest level since 1980..

if we look at that same number on a year-over-year basis, it was expected to be up three percent. It is up three percent. People would have liked to have seen a two handle here, but boy, that's as close as you can get to it to handle it out. Having that, that is how math works.

Three percent actually March of 21 in between there, the high water mark was seven percent in June of 22 that went back to 19. Market's going green now. These really are the the favorites because these are the core personal assumption: Core deflator month over month expected up two tens is up to 10. exactly is expected.

The high water mark there was April of 21 where it was up 0.63 That was the highest since 2001. and finally, year over year personal consumption Expenditure: Core Deflator expected to be up 4.2 it's up 4.1 if you recall. Many on our Fed panel were saying they'd like to see a three-handle here. Didn't quite make it, so coming in a little cooler.

However, coming in a little short one still is the lowest level going back to September of 21 when it was 3.91 So that's pretty nice progress from Four Points license coming down. What does the market think? It really hasn't moved a whole lot? Um, and on the interest rate front, we are below four percent, which was based on some of those stories yesterday that were out there. uh, on the bank of Japan potentially potentially normalized. Pretty good and it was hard to decipher some of that.

I think our contributor Peter buckvar because a lot of that news hit the wires the same time are really nasty. seven-year note auction hit, so there was a lot of volatility around one. Eastern Yesterday well gang back to you very quickly, well analyzed and explained. We appreciate it, but honestly, who doesn't Steve Let's take what Rick said.

She's flustered. She's flustered by the fact she just gets to talk to the Rick Santilly I'd be too. Honestly, I'm I'm not poking fun at her by any means. I would I'd probably be worse.

The fact that Becky Becky Quick is quickly keeping herself composed because she's also a professional. Hats off to her. It's both before the net tent of rate hikes. Well, things are going and things are going the right direction.

Becky I Don't report any satisfied. Cool report right now. I Think all of those wishes that uh or whisper wishes that Rick was talking about. We wish it had a three-handle on one of them.

We should have two handle on the other. Those are the sorts of things that, uh, places we need to get to. Really confirm this idea that the FED can be on hold. But I do want to say something very.

S I Didn't say it. It's very simple, but you see what happens to things like income and spending when inflation goes down. Rick was making an important point about hey, that uh, personal consumption expenditures. Real spending up 0.4 percent.

Well, you have the same level. Inflation drops out and all of a sudden it's a real number that's actually very meaningful and pretty strong. Same thing on disposable income up 0.2 on a real basis. personal income of 0.3 on a real basis.

So those are the sorts of things that you look for. If people can maintain the right level of of their income or the same level of income, inflation drops out. All of a sudden, the real number goes up. It's just kind of a simple map, but it's important economically.

The other thing I'll say is that this is something that the FED is going to be watching Pretty closely. this idea of of the trajectory of right actually where we started we should be pretty good. You remember there was, uh, because the pace of decline of inflation has uh, uh, been been slower and so now we're back to a decent pace of the decline. Um, we're still seeing though I Want to just, uh, get just double check these numbers here Goods Inflation was negative in this thing minus 0.63 Service inflation down about a half a point, but still elevated at 4.86 percent Becky So that's something we just want to watch and I'll just check the probabilities before I Throw it back to you, we were around 29 30 for that November uh um, uh, hike and it's still.

Let me see a little update. a little bit higher 33 percent. So you know one out of three chance right now that November hike is how we're trading I don't really see a reason I am interested I don't know if Rick is still around that the U.S Yeah, well behaved despite what's happening in Japan uh I Thought you might get a pop in those yields. They did not seem to react I think we need to pay really close attention Steve I think yesterday, the way the market acted that there is a nervousness that the biggest tension on this entire Globe trying to normalize is most likely going to be reverberations from Japan.

But okay, and here's a really big butt: Japan goes slowly. So the fact that they expanded their band potentially up to one percent, but didn't change the rates. Listen: I Understand that's where the nervousness is going to come from and after years and years of interest rates being too low around the globe, they really helped finance a lot of carry trades. but I do think it's going to take a long time for them to move towards the normalization the Market's most afraid of.

Joe Did you see the article in the Times? You see the article on the Times that they're they they're plugging AI into the robots and it picked out a plastic dinosaur. That to me is the opening scene Sci-fi movie about how it all starts like hey, advertisers with the Financial Times? What? Uh, not. New York Times Yeah, needling. Andrew All right, uh, join.

Join us now for more on the new inflation data Fed's interest rate. Uh hike this week Judy Shelton A senior fellow at the Independent Institute Former Federal Reserve Board nominee uh Judy I Why don't they ever nominate me to the Federal Reserve Victory is claimed by all failures. It really just because of lack of experience and knowledge Is that like all they're looking for pigs. so everybody's taking credit for inflation coming down.

I Would have thought that maybe Jay Powell could claim more credit than maybe the Biden Administration You don't want to give credit even to the FED for a while. Why do you think inflation came down? Necessarily give me credit? Well, I would say that instead of self-congratulations we should be taking this opportunity to really reflect on the lessons learned from this. Very odd. What lessons did you guys learn? It's a March 2012.

Market's picking back up is to increase the cost of capital and that could be the wrong lesson because that would tell us that if inflation were to start heading back the other way, maybe because of energy prices going up or housing prices, then the Fed's recipe would say oh, we have to go back to doing it. Let's keep driving up the cost of capital. Let's keep raising question for chat. Should I wear Alternatives could be Adorn some pearls on my next interview primarily by the historical level of fiscal transfers during is that like the sign of professionalism is now running and so we see a Divine and excess demand? Just a question then I think you guys are my fashion advisors.

When you pay people not to work, you're going to get. That's probably why that money goes straight into their Bank potential, right into their pockets and finds its way into the CPI because they spend it on goods and services. So I think we should be aware of that impact. and if that's the case, then the Feds model survive.

I think we're on the same page there. Smithy If that was a Fed's model, it didn't work out the way they anticipated. We have high growth, which is great. We have low unemployment and I've always said that low unemployment and high growth.

those are not inflationary I Thought she'd be more enjoyable, but you want that to be is. let's let's get into it. Let's get into it. Market Looking good.

We're catching a bit of a bid. nothing I guess too crazy yet I Wish we were up another Buck or two. but anyway, yesterday's low. we were at 451.55 Uh, we're almost back up to 456.

a lot of things started to get undone here around 1pm. the old one-two punch of some craziness and a treasury auction. And on top of that, we have a big update of what's going on with the Boj. Not to get confused with the Doj.

one's a central bank uh, in an island in the Asia Pacific and the other one is the Department of Justice here in the U.S Uh, so one letter off, but two completely different organizations. One's a central bank and then the other one is an organization in the U.S that doesn't do their job. So kind of some craziness going down here. You could see in terms of price action that obviously it just got absolutely ripped, but now we're just kind of halfway through it.

In fact, for all my FIB Traders out there, a long position wait, where's my Fibonacci levels? The FIB retracement Did we? How much did we bounce back up? We're actually bouncing. This is the perfect 50 bounce man. I get so frustrated sometimes to me when I look at FIB levels I think voodoo magic like all the you know. Have you guys ever met some FIB traders who like they act as if nothing is more accurate in this entire world than FIB levels and I don't even think they're wrong I just don't like the fact that they're right.

so much so like I inherently just want to go against them. It's just my contrarian mindset. like I feel like I feel like Fibonacci level Traders are the hippies of the stock market? A little bit of a hot take, but that's how I look at it like I really believe? that's it actually I don't think I've ever been able to articulate it so accurately before. but I think the Fibonacci traders of the stock market are the hippies of the stock market.

and the frustrating thing is is that they're right. A lot. like they they really are so right there. just Matt like oh right, when it runs into an issue.

50 retracement 50 rechasement. um I Feel like that's an insult to hippies? No. I'm cool with hippies. My dad was a hardcore hippie.

my dad was like went to Woodstock did all that stuff uh I'm just saying in my mind, they're the hippies like and they're like yeah, no, it just works brother like just let it happen like that's that's how I view Fibonacci trades they're like hey man, it's gonna be cool. you just gotta ride the FIB level back. it's gonna be A-Okay That's the vibe I get from him. Um, but anyway.

nice, decent bounce back. We bottomed out that 451.50 a lot with the treasury auction. Messy treasury auction as I believe Joe referred to and then also a decision by the bank of Japan that's the equivalent to like our Central Bank here with Powell Their guy made a decision yesterday. Um, what's kind of funny about this whole situation is it's a little bit of a blast from my past.

I Remember when I like first really started getting into trading? Like really really getting into it. It was in 2017 and I was living with a kid who was also really into trading and he was telling me all about the Japanese Yen carry trip. He's like dude Matt you gotta look at this. It's just something that's super important.

You gotta learn about it. and I remember at that time you know what his name was Brian I was like, you know what Brian I'm not going to listen to you because I don't care about the Japanese Yen carry trait. it sounds super nerdy. It sounds like something I don't need to know about and I don't know why we're even talking about it.

So I kind of blew him off at the time, which was what at this point six years ago. and if only I had listened to Brian if only I had listened to Brian I would have been a little bit more prepared for yesterday to understand what it's all about. Now to set the scene a little bit. and obviously this is information from a person who didn't listen to his buddy name Brian back in 2017 when he was going through the painstaking detail to explain the whole Japanese Yen carry trade to me.

So obviously I might be missing out on some details because it was a while ago and honestly I didn't care about the trade then. but apparently I'm supposed to vote know about it. Now what you kind of need to know. um think about Star Wars think about that guy who got burned up and then put on the black suit and I'm not talking about Batman I'm talking about Darth Vader You know how he like kind of chokes people like he gets really pissed off, has some anger management issues, and then well that's kind of how the Boj, the bank of Japan their Central Bank treats their yield curve.

They basically all day every day say hey if that yield curve moves at all we're going to drop some bodies. They get really, really, really mad about it. Big control and basically the way they view monetary policy it it has clear differences than the way the rest of the world does it. So like right now, you see a lot of similarities between our monetary policy Euro specifically Britain There's a lot of similarities across the board and how we handle it.

Japan Dude, they're running their own show. In fact, it's it. In fact, it's to the point that like you could argue that they actually have a deflationary economy so or deflationary monetary policy mindset. So it's just very different.

Like the US Europe very similar Japan different. And then that's even really inherently why the Japanese Yen carry trade works out because of the interest payments you're going to get there. So sometimes you see a a flight not really to safety, but a flight to the Yen when people are like ah, don't really like what's going on in Euros the Us or Europe and you might as well just take these interest payments from what's going on over in Japan. Now what happened yesterday around 1pm ET was they're equivalent to Pal like the way we have Daddy Powell Well, they have a daddy over Japan as well.

A little bit different but still a daddy. So Daddy of the Boj just it's not pal. it's like pal but basically a Japanese dude. Well, he came on TV and he's basically like, you know what? You know, that death grip we have.

We might be willing to loosen it up a bit, loosen up the old death grip on the Yen or really their yield curve. So they're now. If you look at the what's it the 10-year uh, what's the acronym that they used over there? It's their government Like the way like the UK has guilt, the way we have government bonds. Well, they have government bonds too.

So basically their tenure is always targeted at zero percent. Now they're willing to like it was always specifically at zero percent. and now they're willing to do a point five percent ban to the upside and to the downside. And then through fixed um, like income operations fix it operations they're going to be buying.

The government itself is going to be buying it at one percent. Um, and once again, this is all the Japanese government, um, bonds themselves. And then that's what's leading to this conversation of oh, okay, like well, what's going on, are you going towards normalization And as you heard a little bit there, right before the Pce report came out, it was actually interesting that Rick was talking about it. But why are we surprised? Because Rick's always ahead of everyone because he's essentially the master of the market.

He was talking about how this could be indicative of the fact that they're prepping for the U.S and most likely Europe a couple months later to be done with hiking out rates. So kind of like a Tit for Tat move to protect their own currency. so something to pay attention to. Obviously this is getting like obviously even through this conversation, it's getting a little bit more convoluted, a little bit more complicated.

and I don't know how many of you guys really care about it I mean still, inherently you're trading with price action. Sometimes these things happen. obviously the move is already somewhat being reverted. Um, if you guys want I could make an independent video on it.

kind of show you the facts and figures I Feel like it's a little bit out of left field for us because we don't like commonly talk about like Forex trades and what's going on with these central banks like it's obviously important to know I wish I listened a little bit more to my buddy Brian six years ago because I would have been a little bit more prep for this situation. but regardless, whether you understood why it played out or not, you could classically just see. Oh wow, we vomited through the EMAs it couldn't hold, maybe time to get puts and then vomited into clothes. So like once again, understanding what's causing the market to move.

It's good. I'm never going to be against it. but inherently what makes you money, what loses you money is price action. it is.

Trend It's your own risk to reward management that's never going to change, even when whatever Catalyst does cause it to change. So here we have the bank of Japan Just saying and that's all they did. I I Think it was two words: greater flexibility. Those were the two words uttered from their daddy pal that basically made the world think, uh, oh, is the Japanese Central Bank going from dovish to hawkish which would be kind of just a rare move for them.

And obviously the market did not react to that uncertainty in the most bullish of factions. In fact, it was very, very bearish. But it didn't really matter because right now we just got the Pce report and then the Pce report came in a little bit cool. Um, depending on the reading you're looking at for the personal consumption expenditure report, it was either inline or a little bit cool.

As in, yeah, no, the level of inflation is bad, but we are clearly trending down uh, based on which, once again, whatever one you're looking at, we're hitting a lot of lows that we haven't seen since like March June September of 21.. So clearly inflation's coming down, which is good. The magnitude's not where we want it to be and I know that the our actual daddy pal, not the guy from Japan I'm talking about Jerome Powell Yeah, it is important to note that they don't think we're going to get under two percent inflation until 2025. so I don't know I Guess the argument of like that last one percent might be the most difficult one percent, but we're clearly trending in the right direction so lots of things going on.

Uh, and on top of that, we haven't even talked about any earnings yet, so we should probably do that here. Let's just see how everything's going on right now. Lots to discuss on this beautiful Friday July 28th Hey I Know some people are joining in right now. First of all, you are late for class.

So demerit demerit demerit. Um, we're gonna need to get like a demerit Hall Monitor in here because some of you guys are so late to class. I Don't catch you all and it's not fair that some people get to merits and you don't get a demerit. So I don't know who's the last person that talk.

Tony Ribbons Tony Ribbons You're the last one I Just saw talking. You are now in charge of giving out demerits when I'm not paying attention. Um, and apparently you're also talking about Forex So uh, feel free to give them demerits in various different currencies if you so choose. Um, so you take care of that and I'll take care of this show.

so we're gonna. We're gonna partner up on today's show. Tony I Appreciate that Dow Futures rise Friday After tame inflation data, head for third winning week. Unfortunately because I honestly feel like the Boj once again, not the Ddoj the Boj I Feel like they knew about the down record and they just wanted to mess it up.

If the Dow had closed in the green yesterday, we would have been tying a record that we didn't see since like the 1800s, the late 1800s back when dinosaurs were trading. I'm pretty sure like literal dinosaurs and the bank like why can't they wait one day one day right here Bank of Japan just shocked markets with a policy tweak. Here's why it matters and we could get into it. but I feel like they just didn't want us to hit a record which is which is sad I mean we always like hitting new records.

So anyway, that's what's going on. But first let's talk about some individual companies: Exxon profit misses, estimates, and natural gas refining falters. So strange reaction at first they were going down uh and now we got a decent recovery actually. Chevron beat on its earnings but still drop but bouncing back.

Oil currently sitting above 80 a barrel I know we once in a while talk about Black Gold but oil is definitely making a recovery. It's been a strong Bounce from 67 barrels about 67 a barrel back up to the low 80s, there's resistance right here. 80, 81, 82 Big resistance. On top of that, if we get going I think we could continue to 85-86 I'm not playing crude oil directly, but I am I've been invested in Oxy Oxy ever since last summer and the reason I got into that was basically because I saw Warren Buffett loading up loading up, loading up and I figured hey, if it's good enough for the Oracle of Omaha, it's good enough for the best Trader on this side of the Mississippi so I figured why not I'm still currently underwater on Oxy, but not by much.

about by six dollars I think I'm in at 67.68 I've just been holding it. Um, it's definitely not a short-term trade whatsoever, just been holding, holding holding. So a little bit of an update on the world of Black Gold uh in terms of Ford Ford raises full year guidance after solid earnings beat. so another company coming in um, actually down 1.5 right now.

At first it had some a positive reaction, but not holding up in late post Market or early pre-market so maybe worthwhile to pay attention to. I'm not the biggest fan of Ford and nothing against Ford. It's just this stock doesn't really move that much and I prefer things with a little bit more volatility. Procter and Gamble sales rise slightly fueled by higher prices.

so Procter Gamble uh, PG is the ticker symbol. Always nice to know what's going on with some of these like classic quintessential consumer defensive plays. So right now PNG up about two dollars and 40 cents up 1.6 after beating. So yes, we're still in earnings season earning season.

will be continuing to next week. Pretty sure that Apple's actually reporting next week, which uh, I wish I saved the article for all of you unfortunately. I don't know where it is I'll track it down, but I'm reading quite a bit of have you guys seen all this stuff about how computer sales are taking a huge hit? Uh, laptops PCS for the last quarter? Like, just not even specifically Apple But yes, obviously impactful on Apple but across the ward? uh, across the board? excuse me? PC sales are really, really taking a hit. So uh, it's gonna be interesting to see how this is reflecting itself in action these earnings reports and calls.

So definitely paying attention to the world of computers and PC sales, so just want to throw that out there to everyone. now coming back to everything else going on. Friday July 28th we did get the Pce report in the expectation for core Pce year over year was 4.2 percent came in at 4.1 percent. Inflation is lower than expected, typically a bullish sign, especially based on the current situation.

Do we have next week? Let's see what's going on next week? Uh, next week. Next week we have PMI coming out of China CPI coming out of the Eurozone Uh, joltz. Okay, it's going to be non-farmal employment change. All right, crude inventories coming out on Wednesday averagely non-farm payroll.

So Friday is going to be the big day. Well, PMI is important too. So PMI and uh, really, the unemployment report coming out on Friday The unemployment report comes out the first Friday of every month. So obviously Friday August 4th uh, that should be ninja swinging and I would assume that the Market's going to have a pretty noteworthy reaction to these PMI reports.

Once again, these are all the macro economic reports for next week. On top of that, we are also going to be continuing with earnings. Let me bring this up. this is one of my favorite accounts on: Twitter Here's earnings: Friday Did I Don't know if these are next weeks wait Texas Roadhouse Wait a second Texas Roadhouse Reported last night and no one told me about it.

Are you dark pools? This is bullshit. This is illegal. Whoever. whoever has the gall to bet against the old Txrh Tony knows what's up.

Demerit demerit. I'm gonna find I'm gonna find these people. All of these people crime this is we talk a lot about. Wall Street Malfeasance We talk a lot about Wall Street Working in the gray area and every once in a while we talk about Wall Street doing something that is so far over the line of legality and morality that gets gets me gets me a little fired up.

You know, spins me up a little bit. The fact that Texas Roadhouse is even allowed to see red down by 71 cents. How how how dare they I will be calling the manager I Mean granted you could argue. Hey man, it's just a little bit of a 70 Cent hit on 112 dollar stock that's recently bounced off of 24 all the way up to 112.

Um, that's not the point. Sometimes you just more than money, sometimes you have to have morals and I feel I feel that wall Street's just being a little bit disrespectful if you ask me. just a little bit disrespectful. Oh well, might be a sad day.

Definitely throw that on your watch list you're not gonna You're Not Gonna Wanna Miss that whip back up in price on the old Texas Roadhouse It looks like the account hasn't posted all the earnings for next week, so it'll probably be coming out at some point today. Definitely worthwhile to pay attention to. As a side note, uh, that has nothing to do with the stock market. Have you guys been watching what's been playing out with this? Mario gnaw Fall Guy The like: I don't know.

Citizen journalist on Twitter who has been hosting like the largest Twitter space calls like I think that's his claim to fame like the host of the largest Twitter space goals. Have you guys seen that he's been accused of botting it all and then like, basically he bought it like bought at the account until enough people actually started tuning in and now the people who are calling him out, he's suing them. He's like suing a YouTuber who called him out for doing this. And one of the major things I've learned is like when you start suing YouTubers you just look like a huge asshole and the people end up like really hating you.

Have you guys been tracking that at all? like it's just a while? Like he's suing a YouTuber for 11 million dollars? and obviously he's accusing him of defamation and uh, just crazy things. Um I don't just want to throw that out there. It doesn't Literally zero impact on the stock market. What might have an impact on the stock market is today's seasonality.

Friday July 28th to close out the week and the month it's slightly leaning bullish. The Bulls have won this day 60 of the time. The profit factor is 1.27 the bias leaning bullish. You can see the equity curve kind of just chopping sideways and then recently over the past 10 years starting to Trend to the upside.

So I just want you to know about the seasonality if you want this for free, it's pinned to the top of Chat Matt Cores.locals.com You could become a goonie. today. There is a premium version where I post my trades. other people post their trades.

Uh, so if you want to join that, it's only ten dollars a month I Highly recommend you check it out. Once again, Macross.locals.com Pin to the doctor chat in the description of the video. Five things to know today before that stock market Bell goes Dignity ding ding ding dong. Well let's see what we're supposed to know.

Unlucky number 13th. Yeah no. the bank of Japan messed up our our streak here and I'm I'm totally not pissed Rising GDP So yesterday we got the preliminary reading for our Q2 GDP coming in higher than expected as in our economy grew more than expected in the most recent fiscal quarter EVS Not so easy forward pushback EV production targets and worn widening losses on the vehicles saying adoption has been slower than expected. that doesn't sound good scorched.

I'm pretty sure we're like gonna be breaking temperature of Records today so not breaking any more stock market records but our weather appears to be really hot so probably not the smartest time for me to be flying to. Florida I Have to do a quick trip to Florida tonight. Um so if you're in Florida stop by. say hi, wave be like hey Matt you you said I could wave to you if I see you in Florida so your boys going to Florida hence the LT gray shirt.

Uh, probably not the smartest time to go to Florida Sounds like it's as hot as Satan's ball sack but I'm gonna be there so we could. um we could talk about how hot it is and it could be like super awkward because you could be like hey I watch you and you haven't met me but I've seen a lot of you and I'm like oh, what's up man and you'll be like ah, love the show and I'll be like dude, thanks for the support and then like we'll slowly start sweating because we're standing outside and now like we're just waiting outside of the Starbucks and I'll be like do you want to go get a cop we should go inside and be like oh sorry I have to I'm going to Walgreens right now I'm like I'm running an errand for my girlfriend and I'll be like oh, it's all good. Thanks for the support, have a good one Like one of those I Don't know, let just think about it. McDouble What is this about? Fast Food giant? McDonald's will test a new, smaller footprint spin-off restaurant chain called Cosmics.

Executives Announced Thursday alongside Second Quarter results. The chain is named after one time Mcdonaldland mascot Cosmic who appeared in company advertisements in the 80s. the DNA of McDonald's but its own unique personality. The company will test the concept early next year and a handful of locations in a limited geography.

This guy, they're going with this dude that I'm here for it I Think it could be cool I think it could be fun I'm a fan all right. I Do want to do some. We're still climbing To the upside. We're still climbing to the upside.

There we go. That's what we signed up for. Look at this. just climbing it up.

It's stair stepping up. This is why everyone should be working on stair stepping because this is the type of environment you have to get used to. If you're not crushing 150 flights a day, what are you doing? What kind of degenerate YOLO Options Trader Are you if you're not also crushing the stair stepper? Not rhetorical I Want I want your actual answers of why you're not doing it? Actual answers too. We're going to take out 456.

the queues above 381. I might have a shot I might have a shot today. All right before we do some chart breakdowns as we're waiting for more people to cycling. because yes, we did start Today's Show early I think we should spend a little bit more time without you guys like I don't want your eyes to get Gloss over and you do not care about like Global monetary policy and what happens Here There and Everywhere Global Bond slip as Japan loosens grip on yields Japan Drill to markets with surprise change to yield curve.

Busiest weekend earnings calendar is drawing to a close Lots Going on but a worthwhile listen. What's your reaction? Flexibility: The Boj says flexibility. Yeah, yes. Basically Boj keeps the monitor policy as it is because cap of the cap on the 10 year bone is remains at 0.5 Quick question: My very first instinct was to mimic his accent and my question for you morally is is doing accents racist like I True? Like: at What point is it just comedy and you're just doing it like some people are really good at accents.

Like if I do an Australian accent not racist. but if I do a Japanese accent, it is racist. Where are we at on that? please don't Well I didn't do it I'm asking you if it is or isn't like. is doing an accent racist is my question I feel like it shouldn't be because like, why are we drawing like you could do like I could do an Australian accent and that's cool.

But if I do a Japanese accent, they're both just accents. but one's racist and the other isn't racist unless you're a comedian. What if you're a streamer? uh, ask? Ricky Gervais It wasn't racism until you brought it up. So me asking if it is racist inherently made it racist.

If it's a marginalized group. well did you see Oppenheimer I don't know. just something to think about. Funniest funny Mac Go for it.

Joe's like dude like go for it brother Joe's individually egging me man. he's like in fact Matt if you don't do it now, it's more racist because they are concerned about the possible deterioration in the functioning of the body going forward. This is that the hidden motivation for the Boj. most importantly is the exchange rate because two astringent conduct of the aircraft control could invite undesirable weakling Yang going forward and and therefore R23 The criticism against the Boj Just like yes.

Gracia Yeah, so I Think the Boj is much more flexible this year in terms of the conductor of control to mitigate any possible uh, wrong message to the currency? Market So are we a step closer to policy normalization or not? this is not the first step to a third person normalization. Um, although we observing a little bit higher inflation than we previously thought, the Boj feel the same way. but at the same time, Boj reiterated that the they have to be patient until they can be much more confident about sustainability of two percent of which price spiral going forward this afternoon will be very, very important how he conveys the message associated with the conduct of the issue. Of course, how to characterize the any change today? I Think that would be very, very important.

Yeah, it hasn't really changed their forecast either, but you know what is adjustment to view curve control mean? Let's bring in also. Uh, uh, alcoholic Our Global Economics and Policy editor Kathleen Hayes Kathleen Kazoo, Why are they doing this now? Uh, you know why. Why? Why at this meeting? What is what is what has shifted that they are. Is this the the first step towards actually doing a bigger shift? Or are you in the camp that says oh no, They've made this little tweak and now they'll wait to the first half or so of next year I Just still don't understand why this is being done Now not the first step toward the much bigger picture of normalization material policy.

The motivation for the Boja to do it now is as I mentioned earlier, exchange rate because exchange rate we can weakened for several several weeks uh before this meeting. So I think the dollar is popping again could for the weekend during the summer particular summer is a very volatile uh season food exchange rate market so Buj should be able to see People probably think that beauty should be prepared for any other verse development exchange rate market. So this message of some flexibility towards Eagle Club control could help Boj avoid that kind of undesirable movement in exchange rate. Is it possible that another thing they're a little bit concerned about is that um, the the FED is opening the door wide to more rate hikes? They said they can go either way, but is that something that does concern them that if and if the ECB hops on board too that this is something that could unsettle their the the uh, the exchange rate unsettle the bond market and they want to head that off at the pass.

Well French Decision this week. Uh, didn't directory affect the Boa decision today? As a matter of fact, any message is coming from Fed is a little bit more. David Stone Actually this is a pretty good graphic to kind of explain how they're loosening their grip. willing to go plus or minus 50 bips.

Basically, before that they kept the yield curve like very, very close. very very tight. Uh, so loosening the grip a little bit and this is why people are thinking okay, are they actually making legitimate steps to normalization I mean I think a lot of Obviously, the markets were really reading into it and now everyone's doing the rounds on I guess media kind of saying no, no, it's just a mini tweak I believe is the term they're using, but the markets are interpreting it a little bit differently on previously because the CPI information number is quite favorable recently at the same time. It is also true that the Uh, there's no end in sight about seismic cycle of the Federal Reserve.

So I think the there is some chance of the market of shift in the mentality towards uh, more uh uh, Hawkish Stone or the Federal Reserve expectation and therefore higher interest rate pressure. So I think that there is any chance for the Boj to face the possibility of the deterioration of the functioning of the of the JDP yield. and more important as I mentioned, weakening currency pressure will be undesirable for the Boj at this moment. And because the Uh actually using Financial official several weeks ago, he said that would be doing anything to combat against the further currency weakening or when the official of the military Finance says that it will be.

probably. You guys have a problem and you'll have control to mitigate the currency pressure going forward because I mean I'm just reading this: Bank of Jones going to continue to offer to buy. Uh, we'll We'll offered by Uh 10 years every day through fixed rate purchases. But but at one percent that changes things, doesn't it? That's a wider ban surely.

Uh, well. band. uh, changing the bound. Is the Uh sending much more clearer message.

That bug might be stepping towards the normalization of Martial policy, but that's the last thing Bob wants to do now because the Boj still be cautious about the sustainability of the two percent inflation they want to be. Uh, they they want to wait for more data to conforming the sustainability of inflation. So I think the Uh the problem I Think the most important thing a Boj has to do today after the Uh I mean I mean under the Mr Williams conference is that he should convince. hey, this is not the first step toward normalization.

This is not even the adjustment to the ear cap control. this is just a technical uh, mini tweak. Once again, he's really hammering home the point of the mini tweak. We're interpreting it as a step towards their normalization.

They're saying no, but I don't know. Obviously the Market's in a little a bit of a disagreement on that bank of Japan loosens yield curve control, pledging greater flexibility. The Boj will now offer to purchase 10-year Jgbs at one percent through fixed rate operations, effectively raising its tolerance by 50 basis points. Boj Governor says this move is not a step towards policy normalization, but merely represents a tweak to ensure sustainability of agile control or yield curve control.

Excuse me? So that's where everything went at 1 Pm yesterday. You could see just this huge vomit like it just got absolutely destroyed. This, It's not a normal thing. Obviously, there's many non-normal things that can happen in the market, which on any given day means that we could have just craziness.

but this type of movement I Mean, look, look at the daily chart. It looks just absolutely ridiculous. What was prompted by this? we closed out Wednesday at 377.50 meta crushed earnings. the whole Tech sector goes up, and we ended up opening at 383 and then by the time we closed, we actually the lowest close over the past two days and now we're We closed out yesterday at 376.62 and now we're trading just below 381.

So it's just High volatility, high octane type of craziness. Uh, even the spy the Spy gapping up even larger, opening up at 359, closing out at 350 250 and now we're at 350 5.50 So coming back up to this mid-range So right now I see some questions of like am I bullish am I bearish Well, in all reality I mean I'm just gonna play whatever the trend is like whatever whatever I see on the daily whatever I see on the 15 minute whatever I see with Market internals if it's all starting to align in One Direction I'm going to be trading in that direction now before we have that information because we have about 15 minutes to go before that Bell does go Dignity ding ding ding. My bias on the day would be favoring the Bulls because I know the seasonality does favor the Bulls and also we got that Pce report the Pce report it was cool as in inflation came in less than expected which in the current monetary policy regime, that's bullish in the stock market. I Also want to let you know that I went through and I looked these all these vertical lines are the most recent 11 Pce report.

Days out of these 11, eight of them were green days as in from open to close we put in a higher close than open as we put in a green bar. So I mean some of them have been brutal I mean if you go back to August we opened up where we closed and then it just got absolutely destroyed. but then we had some other ones that it put in some pretty nice movements. Um, obviously because yesterday's bar was so large I Highly doubt we're getting a gap up or a gap down unless things really get cooking in the next 15 minutes, but it looks like we're going to be opening in the realm of 455.50 and then from there we're going to be deciding where things really want to get going.

Today, we're about half range once again, the hippies of the stock market. All those FIB Traders nailing it once again I'll be watching the internals Yesterday they started off bullish and then really, when things got going with the Boj, that's when it went bearish and you could see the internals reflected this price, action, movement all the way to the downside. But right at the end of the day, the internals actually switch back to being bullish. Which is interesting because right at the end of the day we saw some strength.

And look at that. People buying around 452 currently trading at 455.50 so the old Kansas City Shuffle if you will. So on the daily chart, it's kind of a tough one. but I'm gonna I guess my first watch is 457.

To the upside: I'll be watching the high and the low from two trading days ago. So I'll be watching 457 for some bullishness or I'll be looking for the breakdown of 453 50 for some bearishness. So and then on top of that, obviously we could watch the high and the low of yesterday. If you're trading the tech sector I'm going to be looking for this successful hold of 379 and some change.

and then I would also 379 380. that's going to be a support region. We see the high from the past two trading days. Well, two trading days.

but also back here on February or excuse me Friday July 21st so basically just below where we're at right now I See that to be a pivotal level in the tech sector if we can hold the low 380s I Think there's actually a shot of returning to the 384s today and then obviously we could battle it out there to see who's really gonna I don't know if we're gonna go into the weekend with some bullishness or bearishness and just kind of like the undertone. So that's what I'm going to be looking for at open my eyes are also going to be in the world of oil just because we did have some reports this morning. Exxon currently down by 0.6 percent Chevron currently down by 0.6 oxy currently up actually by 0.2 percent. but overall, crude oil itself showing some strength, so I'm going to be paying attention to that.

The dollar has been absolutely, absolutely wild lately, so we've had a big sell-off even more recently from Thursday July 6th all the way to the 13th. the dollar Index dxy Dixie has just vomited. Then we got a little bit of a base, a breakout of this trend line, and then kind of a retouch off of the trend line, showing a bit of strength. so the dollar might have some strength.

here. and I've also been for whatever reason tracking the pound, but the pound has been definitely showing a bit of weakness. The pound did Rip all the way up. Huge hit, try to bounce smacked again.

So looking, if the pound does vomit, that'll actually support the case of the dollar. Index Going up a little bit of inverse relation because remember what the dollar Index is. That's the comparison of the USD versus the Euro the Yen then the pound. In that order.

it's basing it. um, it's comparing it to a basket of other currencies. That's what the dollar Index is so lightly paying attention to that. How's gold been doing? Gold's been showing some weakness.

a little bit of a pop. This breakdown pop back up. All right. Where are we at right now? So Gold's actually up.

How's silver doing? I Was really under the impression that gold and silver were about to take a little bit more of a hit. Silver getting annihilated yesterday? That's actually a big drop in silver. uh I don't know. This says I Don't think there's many orange juice traders in here, but oranges have been ripping.

Uh where is it on the your ex? Nope. Where's um is it frozen frozen orange juice? because it's just orange. Why does this? It's on the CME I Guess it just doesn't have it here. Um I was looking at it on Twitter People were been pointing out how orange orange future is it? This one? All right, this is not being whatever it is.

um F-co-j OJ's just been ripping Oranges have been ripping Ripping Ripping Trading View I have it on tradestation which is where I trade features but that's because I pay for the CME data I'm not seeing it on trading view unfortunately whatsoever unless someone knows trading views thing. orange Futures Physical Nope, that's not it. Uh I don't know how to bring it up on trading View So if anyone figures that out, let me know. But it's been orange juice.

Well you can see orange juice has been ripping. Um, is it an all-time high? Let's move it over to weekly. Looks like we're clocking in at an all-time high on orange juice and the recent push has just been crazy. I mean percentage-wise we've just been ripping up 21 in two weeks.

So Orange Juice I Hope you enjoyed it while we could still afford it because it's definitely becoming the drink of the billionaire class at this point. Where's the futures for though? I should probably spell it right. Orange Juice Orange Juice Cash Orange just the color orange I Guess um now I Guess Training View just doesn't have the connection to the either the CME or the CBO Evo You could see it through Orange Juice. The fact that like these are going to be highly correlated, just rip and rip and ripping.

So for all my orange juice traders in here I Hope you guys were uh you guys are scoj FC OJ I mean look is that what I want FC OJ Oh okay, it's on the ice exchange there. We go there we go. Thank you thank you thank you Much appreciated Look at that Rip. Look at that rip in old oranges Freak dude.

Imagine if you just something in your bones told you in March of 2020 you're like you know you're sitting there as a grandfather, years from now and your grandchild runs up and they're like, how did we make our money? how do we live in this mansion and you're like in March of 2020 I just I had a feeling about oranges I had I had a feeling about oranges and you bet you bet the farm on it and you get a 200 return on a already leveraged Futures Contract Someone out there someone out there in this world pulled off the orange trade of the century and they deserve it. Honestly, they deserve it. Check. Coffee Coffee I think has been pretty high too.

uh Coffee Futures actually coffee I was remember this right not being coughing. we were all joking about it. coffee not moving too much. Well it's moving but not a beautiful Trend Oats is a weird thing that I think is about to take a hit.

Uh, Oats are looking a little heavy to me. Oats did try to pop Consolidated got smash bouncing. Um uh folks I have no position on oats but I feel like oats are about to get kicked in the balls. so just throwing out my personal opinion on notes I Know a lot of you guys come to me for your oat trades.

How's sugar been doing Sugar Sugar Sugar sugar Sugar did pop. Huge drop. coming back. What about live cattle? Where's cattle at these days? cattle's been moving.

dude. imagine double teaming that, throwing half your money into live cattle, half your money into oranges and you're just a billionaire Now because of it, you're like I just felt really good about cattle I felt really good about oranges moving. How much has cattle actually moved cattle up a hundred and eighteen percent? That's just that's ridiculous. So wild.

Anyway, that's our prep for the day. you know how we do it on. Fridays we always gotta check our oranges cattle and I guess Sugar We're just checking our random random Commodities that hey, maybe it's gonna have an influence on we have how we trade. but overall, you kind of know what's going down.

We're still in earnings season, there's still big earnings to report next week, and it's going to be continuing for a week or two after that. slowly. uh, coming down in terms of volatility in terms of macroeconomic reports. We got the inflation report this morning coming in a little bit cooler than expected, which is causing my buys to be bullish, which is in line with seasonality for today.

To wrap up the week and the month, leaning bullish is how I'm feeling as we're about to get to the market open. but obviously I'm going to wait for price to really confirm my thoughts on this. In terms of next week, we have more earnings. We also are going to get a couple more important macroeconomic reports such as the PMI report on Thursday and we're also going to be getting the unemployment report on Friday so be prepared for that.

In terms of today, the last two to three Fridays have been pretty strange trading days and based on what's going on with the reports this morning, the earnings, and also the Boj, the bank of Japan's decision from yesterday I Wouldn't be surprised if today is also another strange day. like I said, I'm leaning bullish but I will wait for price to kind of confirm my thesis on that, so that's kind of where we're at now. before we get into it, you know what I'm looking for on the spy and the cues. Yesterday was a large range day, so yeah, if we get pushing that much, I'll be watching the highs and the lows from yesterday.

But in reality I'm first going to be watching the highs and the lows from two trading days ago and three trading days ago just to see how the market reacts. If the Spy can get above and hold above 456. Okay, interesting, but the real test comes at 457 and then with the cues I want it to hold above 380. but really I wanted to take out 382 and ideally push 384.

So that's for the spy and the queues respectively. Uh, paying attention to oil Just below 80 right now. And I'm trying to think of the major reports this morning were oil plays Chevron Exxon but we also had Procter Gamble which actually did pretty well. Ticker symbol PG Procter Gamble currently up 1.2 percent.

So basically with all that good stuff out of the way, don't forget to smash the like button. Let's Jack this up. Let's double these numbers up before that Bell goes dingy ding ding ding I Have faith in you guys. You guys have four minutes to pull it off.

But I know you could do it because I know you guys are lickety-splickety fat fast I didn't mean to call you fat I meant fast I did not call you fat I did not call you fat I said fast lickety-splickety fast if you rewind the tape I said fast I didn't say fat, don't There's already been enough times that Today's show has gone off the rail. We don't need to. Um, Start Spreading Other falsehoods about what's been going down today and we don't need to. We don't need to be.

We don't need to be accused of fat shaming, and being racist in the exact same show. Generally, you get like one bad cancelable offense per show. We can't start doubling down and tripling down on those things. Don't don't spread that.

don't don't. Let's just guys. I Said fast. F-a-s-t I Said fast I Said fast.

Just everyone. Chill everyone. everyone. Calm down.

Let's say Okay Mayo Man, Um, are there any questions before we get going on the day? Uh, do you guys want me to do any chart reviews? You have any questions, comments, concerns? uh, that you want to chat about before that? Bell goes Dignity Ding ding ding. I Know there's been a lot more interesting. Well, I know some people were talking about Bbig which blows my mind because I think it just got knocked off the NASDAQ which just shows how horrible of a company it is. It's now in the OTC market.

so I know there's been some chatter about Bbig. Uh, Envx has been doing well I know there's chatter about that I Don't know if Camille's in here this morning, but I saw he was on a space call with Marco Otis and some other Envx supporters. So shout out to the Nvx. Traders out there it sounds like you're crushing it.

Corvana is Carvana finally starting to come down. It is Carvana starting to show some weakness breaking down below this. Like they say, first major red day is generally your first warning shot Gap Fill cratering through that this one. It's up a little bit right now in pre-market but Carvan is not a company to invest in.

it's an active trade. It's an active trade. to the upside. it's an actor trade.

To the downside, this is I Mean, fundamentally, there's in my opinion, no reason to invest in this one. Uh, am I coming to Miami No, I'm not in Miami Uh, I'm a little bit north of that. This particular weekend, a little bit north at Rivian has been doing actually pretty well. um, like the market yesterday though.

kind of got a little bit hit there. looking for the breakout of the high 28th. I'm trying to think of the other Upsd has been having a nice run as well. Um, once again, everything got hit yesterday, but a nice Trend to the upside.

uh T-u-p Um, the first day I checked it out was yesterday, definitely has squeezed potential. High Short interest High Utilization High cost to borrow it's a low float stock. Once again, these are companies that I would not invest in. They're just active trades.

You could play it actively to the upside and when it finally tops out, peeks out and starts coming down, it's an active trade. To the downside, you don't have to be in love with and marry all these companies that you put your money in. If you're attempting to make money be a Trader you can trade you don't have to like, morally love every single company you're in and just Diamond hand it till the end of time Diamond Handing It is a great way to end up losing money and giving back a lot of your gains it. That's what Diamond handing commonly commonly leads to.

Um, what else to do Roku Roku Reported How'd they end up doing? obviously pretty well Roku up 10 from where it closed out Roku Must have done well on its earnings. How's Disney Still in those low 80s hasn't really been catching a bit I Think the thing that's really going to move Disney To the upside or the downside is actually going to be an announcement from Bob Iger of what they're doing with their like linear TV So like, what's it doing with what is it ABC what are they doing with the ESPN I Think that's going to be the next major thing that really moves Disney To do you want a slingshot for the weekend Matt You will love it like a legit slingshot like the thing David took out Goliath with or is slingshot like code for something else dignity ding ding ding. The casino is open Play responsibly If not, have fun. Well folks, this is it.

This is all she wrote: the final trading day of the week and of the month. Let's see if the Spy can take out 456 457 pretty much at 456 Now looking for the cues to hold 380? would love for it to push 382 383 Really a break at 384 would be amazing, but that's four dollars away, so maybe a little bit too far. Maybe just a little bit too far. What do you guys want up on the screen this morning? Uh, definitely some selling and opening.

Geez, look at all these negative nancies out there. Foreign. Oh the three-wheeler things I didn't know those were called slingshots. well I must have known it somewhere I just forgot about it.

Uh I appreciate that. but I am not in need I will be basically taking two beers and that'll be it. That'll be it. That'll be it.

All right? You guys know my plan. com cool, collected. just kind of chilling the first. Whatever.

10 20 30 minutes I want to see how things open I love this bullishness I will be here. We could put up the 15 minute. Uh I want to see if the Spy takes out basically this low that we saw around 11 11 15 yesterday I Want to see if this spy can take out 457 That would make me a little bit more confident about being bullish. Basically, what I would want to see is a break above 457 come down consolidation there and then we break from the consolidation to the upside and then just take it out a dollar at a time 458 459.

that's kind of what I'