Foreign sometimes I guess I'm such a mess. Foreign to go. Oh brother oh brother. Shout out to Luna already dropping a fat super chat.

Uh, much appreciated. Thank you thank you thank you Well folks, welcome back to the Mad Core show where you're Mad Cores I'm the show and obviously together we are the Matt Cores show. We're starting a little early today because in a mere two minutes we're going to be getting the GDP report. The Line in the Sand is 1.8 We're seeing if the economy is growing faster, a little slower, right on schedule.

and then obviously the backdrop of this is the fact that right now the market is ripping to the Moon I Don't know if you've pulled up your brokerages yet. today it is green green. Green Not necessarily the best sum for someone who swung some NASDAQ puts this guy right here just very happy. It was a relatively small position playing with some profits from yesterday.

but I'm gonna be dumping those at close and I can tell you my plan right now. Unless the GDP report really messes things up. Here's my plan for the day: sell my puts that close wait for the market to open, Wait for it to push to the upside. Wait for it to pull back into an exponential moving average Wait for it to turn around YOLO my account into calls and then just see how it plays out.

That's pretty much my game plan for the day. Gave it out. That's it I don't know what else I could do. Cut my puts out open, wait for a push, wait for a pullback? buy the pullback and just cross my fingers and see if this thing continues to the moon.

So we're gonna see how that all goes. That's my plan. Um, we have a lot of earnings to talk about. We have a lot of other macroeconomic events to talk about.

We have to recap what happened with the FED yesterday. The ECB just jacked up their interest rates as well. We have the GDP this morning. We also have the Pce report tomorrow, so another inflation report coming out tomorrow.

and then in between that, we have a bunch of earnings meta gapping up. Uh, McDonald's came out Chipotle came out Southwest came out McDonald's came out uh. so there's earnings to go over. And then we could also do some technical breakdowns.

so that's pretty much the vibe for the day. I Hope you are ready for a fun-filled day on today. July 27th I Believe it's even a Thursday Yeah, today's totally a Thursday So before we get into it, obviously I'm going to ask of you to help me out. Destroy the like button.

Don't forget to subscribe like like like Sub Sub sub. And with that being said, let's switch it up a little bit. Let's switch it up to exactly where we need to be. GDP Oh I hope it's Rick is is it Rick? About 33 points I Want to get over to Rick Santelli Who is standing by at this? Yes, well, we're a few seconds early, but I'm telling you, we have a Rickon Members.

We have a whole line. We're going to try to cover all of that, of course. National Jobless Claims is always a good place to start. Expecting 235 000 Andrew 221 000 is what we receive: 221 000.

that's the lightest level. To find a number lower than that, you have to go back to the Uh second week of February of 2023. And if we look at continuing claims, a very similar story. While we're expecting a number about 1.7 and a half Spies all the way up just below 690 000.

8 million 690 000. Uh, to find a lower week, you have to go all the way back to the last week in January of this year and you can see yields already moving up on those particular data points GDP Better than expected. Second Quarter First look: two point Four percent Two points four. Best start since the last quarter of last year when we were at two points.

Assumption though, a big drop, but it was expected. Uh, 4.2 last quarter 1.6 this quarter, but expecting 1.2 so it isn't bad when you compare it to expectations. But I do need to mention that it was a big drop. The pricing Index: Two point two percent.

That's a basically near half of our last level 4.1 And if we look at the core Pce quarter over quarter, 3.8 versus yeah, 0.9 3.82 lower number. you have to go back to the last quarter of 2020.. Now let's look at durable good orders, shall we? Uh, these are preliminary numbers. They will change much better than expected.

Uh, 4.7 4.7 And it is so hot. Uh, 4.5 was the last Uh number read of December of last year I Didn't go back far enough. Who expected 4.7 x Transportation It's still multiple times up six tenths of one percent. We're expecting one himself a morning right now.

But six tenths is a good number based on expectations, and the 4.7 to 0.6 is a pretty wide spread if we look at Capital Good orders, non-defense X Air a proxy for Capital spending by businesses up two tents. Uh, following a revised seven Tenths that turns into five tens, we're definitely losing a little bit of the horsepower that we gained here. We want to pay attention to that in particular. and if we switch gears to the shipment side of the equation unchanged, that's definitely a bit of a disappointment.

both in expectations, which were two tents. rear view mirror was three. Market is a couple other things out of the way. If we look at advances of trade deficit, it's an 87.8 billion that's lower than the 92.

we're expecting. Wholesale inventories down three tenths, one percent inventories moving a lot lower than expected on the retail side. A completely different scenario. almost doubly expectations up seven tenths one percent.

Uh, the ECB of course raised to uh the rates which is still rather tame compared to what many were looking at uh, mid to end of last week with respect to where interest rates were going. and if you look at the pre-opening equities, all I can think of is wow, what a run on the Dow Andrew Back to you Rick thank you for bringing them to us. We're going to get over to Steve Leesman right now. Uh, who has been looking at him and Steve yeah, what do you think I'm scratching my head here uh Andrew This economy tracks which we we were happy about the second quarter because growth was going to hold up.

That was the the uh, the The Hope and that was the the change that we were looking at but we were not looking for was for growth to actually accelerate. Now it didn't accelerate with a stronger consumer spending Rick was 100 right to point that out. Still, the Top Line number of 2.4 percent is an acceleration from the two percent uh, number that we were looking for. Go to the jobless Claims number.

Um, you have you expected it to be at the what's my expectation for today? Rick Didn't mention because we never really need to mention this number is the insured unemployment rate. It's the percentage of the employer getting unemployment insurance that actually ticked down. It almost never moves. It's only sort of within This 1.2 percent range.

It's now down to 1.1 percent so we're not seeing weakening and this is temporary data. The second quarter data is looking back at the the quarter completed in June. The jobless Claims numbers is right in front of us now a little bit careful. You want to be with this data because of the idea that you have these June uh sorry summer Auto layoffs that may or may not be happening sometimes, especially in the wake of the the pandemic.

It hasn't followed the normal seasonal pattern so, but we're just not seeing the acceleration there. and the um, uh, durables numbers looked good as well. So uh Powell talked about it yesterday I Think this does kind of increase or raise the odds of this soft Landing happening. and then just one other point.

which as you can see when inflation drops and you have sort of nominal uh growth at a certain level, well, it accelerates and I think a big part If we were to do the analysis of the increase in Real GDP is from a decline in influence. All right, you get the point. the numbers are representing a growing economy. Pretty solid and we are still going.

Uh, I was looking at some levels I don't think is actually that insane today if the Spy ends up touching 462. this is a level from a while ago. In fact, I think I saw it on the weekly view. Uh, back here from March of 22.

I'm looking at this peak if you look at uh March of the end of March of the Year 22 that we peaked out at 462.07 I Very much think that could be like targeted today and don't forget as of now where we we're at 459 How far away are we actually from the all-time high? We are currently 4.4 4.5 percent away from the all-time high in the market. How nuts is that? We are 4.5 away from the all-time high. We maybe were just setting up for a gigantic cup and handle. How Wild would that be if this is how it plays out? What if we just keep rocking, it gets rejected.

At 480 we come down, it makes a handle and then just goes supersonic off of that. That is just nuts. Absolutely nuts. How are we looking on the tech sector Tech sector.

If you're watching the cues today, we're actually gonna. We're out. We're at 383. How far away are we? 83? So we are about? where's my key not working? Hello? Six percent Dude, we are.

No, not even. This is just insane to see where we're Six point five percent on the cues. Uh, obviously a little bit more exaggerated, but same rough cup and handle shape. dude.

So wild. Um, hey. next Upside: Target Obviously we have some recent highs to break in the queues uh that we just posted last week, but after that, we might be talking closer to 390. Dude, this is just Bonkers Absolutely.

Bonkers I Cannot believe that it is just going like this. Did the GDP report come out? Yeah, it came out. It came out at 2.5 percent and depending on who you asked, the expectation was either 1.8 or 2.0 So uh, the preliminary reading of the GDP for Q2 coming in with suggesting more economic growth than expected. you know I'll be the first person to admit it I was basically assuming there was a zero percent chance of the FED being able to pull off a soft Landing but it feels like we're going that way.

It feels like we are going the way of yeah, they might be able to pull off this soft Landing which is just crazy I mean did any of you think like, were any of us actually that confident in the FED We're like I don't think any of us were and I know we still have a battle so maybe a battle ahead of us. Obviously we're still not at our two percent inflation Target But man oh man, they are bringing inflation down. The economy is going up. unemployments like I Just I'm dumbfounded I'm dumbfounded that it's they seemingly did their job with some level of skill.

Uh, blows my mind and maybe I'm speaking early. maybe that last percent is the hard percent to get a hold of. but I mean look at this right now. everything's ripping.

Dollars starting to pop the pound. Probably gonna take a hit soon. Uh Tech ripping the overall Market Ripping oil ripping. We've not all earnings have crushed it Tesla Obviously coming down it's still down about what thirty five dollars.

Ever since it like it recently topped out at like 299. we have Netflix that was all the way up at like what 470 480 but Meta crushed it Google crushed it Microsoft I Really don't think it's going to take long for it to recover, especially with this kind of a market. I mean in fact, in Microsoft already recovered? No, it needs to be up here. It needs to be up in the realm of 350 is that 340 right now? so it's not even that far away, folks.

I Guess this stonks only go up. Reminds us of the old old truth of the market. The old truth of the market stonks only go up. This is fascinating.

I mean just imagine how pissed off these fundamental bears are. Or like the people just every day. Ooh, since like March were like nope, fundamentally overvalued, Fundamentally overvalued, fundamentally overvalued like they must be seething. Now, is there a chance with commodities ticking back up, inflation could start to tick back up towards the end of the year? Seems too good to be true.

Um, yeah, but I think that from an economic standpoint is a little bit more complicated. So Commodities are going up. but actually we're seeing uh, some metals coming down. So I see oil going up a little bit and then there's other ones like I know I think it's was it cocoa beans or something is like ripping to a new high.

There's certain Commodities going up right now, but then there's a whole nother batch of them that are actually trending down. Um, so I'm actually kind of watching more. So my prediction on Commodities actually relates to the strength and or weakness of the dollar and what's going on there. So I totally agree with what you're saying.

but I don't know if it's that simple because it's going to be specific to the actual commodity. Um, but really, whether up or down in inflation? here. for us, in terms of active training, whether you're day trading or swing trading, this is such a great, great great lesson of fundamentals matter. Really when you're talking about investing something over a large time Horizon multiple years, potentially multiple decades If you're a Trader and you're simply saying no I need to like do something now because of fundamentals and you're an active Trader In and out in a day.

In and out in a couple days, In and out in a couple weeks. It's It's price, action, and technicals are clearly and like I do I Don't understand fundamental analysts when they do this. If you're an active Trader to any time frame intraday daily weekly, it's all about price action. It clearly is.

If you were a person who was long because you thought the market was fundamentally overvalued, you would have been knocked out so early and you would have missed so much of this run-up and yet we are still going I wouldn't love to be a fly on the wall in I Guess one of these places where they're just like ripping their hair out right now because they already have a massive short position and it's just eating them alive like every day we just stonks only go up and they're getting destroyed, destroyed, destroyed and you know when the Market's gonna come down. I Wholeheartedly believe the market comes down when the shorts finally get out of their position. I Think the shorts exiting, these people who are calling out everything being fundamentally overvalued when they're finally throwing their towel in and they're like, you know what? it just cannot keep going I think that's the moment we actually like Peak and then we come down from there. This is just crazy.

Absolutely crazy. So if you swung calls I myself didn't play meta because I felt a little bit too burned uh by Tesla and Netflix but if you swung Medicals Massive congrats if you swung spy calls cue balls Mass Congrats to you. You're crushing it. You're waking up feeling like it's a good good good morning.

Wow. um I I Was not fortunate enough like I said I felt a little too burned by Meta. but uh I would love to give a massive congrats. I mean I'm sure there's people in here right now who just like you must just be killing it.

Yeah I can only imagine the dopamine in your brain and you're just. you're just waiting these next 45 minutes waiting for the market to open to see You're like multiple hundred percent gain. Uh, what a day. What a day.

What a day! What a day! Ninety percent of all asset managers are in at the moment. It's the most since the Rona period. They aren't as many bears as people think. So I was looking at the commitment of Traders report which is, uh, like a breakdown of what's going in on in Futures contracts.

and right now, uh, there's not like these big players. There's actually not that many even live contracts in terms of the NASDAQ and the S P 500 in terms of other Futures like gold, silver, oats, bonds, whatever. Like that type of stuff. yeah, a lot of them.

like depending on what you're talking about, there's big positions alongside to the short side, but when it's coming to the market es and NQ there's not that big of a spike of being long or short. Um, and this is once again just for futures. They're just kind of sitting there. Uh, which is interesting.

Uh, did Matt hold his SPX calls from yesterday? no I cut those on the breakdown or like the intraday there was that big drop and I got out on that drop. Um, and honestly, like in hindsight, I of course I wish I kept them but if I did keep them I truly believe that would have been a bad trade because there was a big drop. it broke my support I had to get out. So sometimes you look back in the rear view mirror and you're like oh, just like imagine if I did this but I still truly believe I made the right play because this was a big drop at 3 P.M I got out on that drop because this could have easily kept going I mean going into clothes.

we literally made a fresh low. so to hold through that that was taking on a lot of risk. If you did it, you're lucky, but for a day trader or one to two day swing trainer, it would have been taking on far too much risk to hold it through that and if you did it like I still congratulate you because you took on a massive risk and it ended up paying off. But to be able to from a technical perspective, predict that we're gonna rip to a new high, have a huge breakdown, make a new low, and then be gapping up because an individual Tech stock ended up beating on earnings and then we got a good GDP report I Mean the odds of that are extraordinarily low.

like I Don't think anyone was successfully predicting that. So once again I wish I held and that would have been true degenerate fashion and it would have ended up paying off. Uh, but I didn't like. This stuff happens and sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you catch it.

And if you're on the right brokerage, or if you have a Futures account, maybe you decided to go long after the market. Normal hours: closed Futures trade 23 hours out of the day or some options are trading. whatever. Also, some ungodly large window if you're on the right brokerage, so maybe you waited for the news and then you got into it and that's pretty smart play there.

But I mean to have calls like this is just a wild day and if you did it I Mean it happens, It happens, It happens. So I'm still gonna be here and celebrate with you folks who absolutely crush this one. Absolutely crushed it. snag some calls at closed yesterday dude.

The Boring: Trader Well, you're not having so much of a boring day today, are you? You're having a giant Green Day I Still think the market is going towards some type of a breakdown? Yeah, eventually I Mean eventually it will. It's just a question of what. It's super easy to be a perennial bull or perennial bear and just always be calling for a pop. Or always be calling for a drop.

And then when you see any form of price action that says that, like or represents what you're saying, you're like, yeah, no, totally called it. but I mean I See this all the time on financial media. They bring on the Bulls, they bring on the Bears and they just keep always being a bull and they keep always being a bear. And then when anything happens, they're like haha.

I was right. But to me that doesn't count as right if you didn't have a time frame on it. If you're just always bullish, yeah, of course you're eventually going to be right. If you're always embarrassed, of course you're eventually going to be right.

It just like to me that's not a real call out. A real call out is when you're bullish or bearish in a time frame. Hey, I Think over the next week we go up, over the next quarter, we go up. Over the next year we go up or go down.

go down. But I mean that. That's one other thing that drives me absolutely nuts is bringing on people who make a call out and then there's no time frame with it. Well, of course you can always.

If you wait long enough, eventually you're going to be right. I Mean we could look at this chart right now. look at the weekly chart and all notice that this is a huge rip. eventually.

Does this take a hit? Maybe to the tune of Five Ten percent? Yeah, probably it probably will, but that doesn't What matters is, are you calling it out to happen right now? Or do you think it's going to go all the way up That happened? the timing of it. It's one thing to be like, right in terms of Direction But if you're wrong in timing, you're still wrong. So with it eventually. Yeah, these types of moves are not sustainable.

But let me remind you of what happened from March all the way up until January and I Know that it was being supported by quantitative easing, but this was also an entire run that everyone's like, dude, how's it going to keep going? How is this possible And you know what it did. Even on the times that it had a little bit of weakness, it still recovered and still started ripping. So this right here. from March of 2020 to January of 22 this is a good reminder of yeah.

sometimes there's a little breaks, but this can for seemingly a long, long time just keep ripping and ripping and ripping. So with it I would just say the mindset of just thinking something has gone up too much. The mindset of thinking something's gone down too much I Don't think that's a good mindset I Don't think that's a good way to trade because yes, it can always keep going. You just if you have a gut feeling that it's too high or too low or whatever, like no way could it keep going.

Yeah, the answer is it could. Now, obviously if you start to see a reversion and a peak setup a valley set up like whatever it is. Yeah, that's maybe a little bit different and if you want to try to fade it, good luck. Be careful.

just obviously keep your risk in check. Use the recent higher the recent low as your risk depending on what direction you're playing. But I just hear so many people thinking dude, it's so hot I can't keep going and I think one of the biggest lessons that we could take away from this is yeah, who cares if it's fundamentally overvalued I Think that's a valuable lesson for us to all know is that even as something is fundamentally overvalued, and fundamentally you should be bearish. that is a very different thing than what we're attempting to do, which is make money by actively training.

and a lot of times when you're actively trading, you'll want to go with the trend. even if you think that the trend maybe is like eventually going to stop. Well, of course all Trends do eventually stop. but as long as it's intact, why would you not just keep writing it? Why would you not keep like I just I don't know Matt Can you imagine the Bears this past few months like I said, They just have to be uh, what? Ripping their hair out like absolutely ripping their hair out um I I can't even imagine And what's weird is I don't necessarily disagree with them of things being fundamentally overvalued, but I disagree with them of throwing on an actual tradable position right now.

when all the momentum is going against them, it's we can be in agreement of fundamentals. But that doesn't mean I agree that you should be actively taking that trade I don't want to get in front of a it's a steamroller right now to have any medium to long-term short on at this moment. Well, long term is a different story. If you're like oh, I think it's coming down within the next year or two.

Okay, that's a different story, but I'm saying if you're like oh, I'm buying puts for a couple weeks out is, how do you know Now's the right time You're literally just stepping in front of a steamroller. It's just it's too painful. like you're like I I Can only imagine what's going on in those whatever prop firms those hedge funds those Banks Whoever has on like just fundamental shorts right now. Every single day for them just has to be living hell living living hell.

Uh, Carvana is down currently appears to be a decent buy. What do you think? a decent buy? No. Uh. Carvana was like a squeeze play.

Uh I wouldn't be buying this unless it actually turned around. It looks like it's going for this. Gap fill at 42 But I mean all Carvan is a company I would never invest in it. This is once again just an active trade to me.

Uh, it recently popped. Maybe taking a breather if it starts to spin back around. especially if it starts to push 48 45 Again, yeah, may be interesting using the recent low as my risk. Okay, good active trade but like do I like Carvana as a business like what? am I just happy parking my money in Carvana? Absolutely not.

There are far, far better companies in this world where I'm like, okay, yeah, I'll throw my money there and just like come back to it in a couple years. Carvana is not one of those. Carvana is an active trade. To the Upside: it's an active trade.

To the downside: Carvana is going to do what it's always done. It pumps, it, dumps, it pumps, it dumps, it pumps it dumps. I Don't think this is going to be any different. It's just the question is, how big is it gonna pump and when it dumps, when's that going to be? and how aggressive is it going to be? But I think this stock is an active trade to the upside.

Active Trade did the downside. uh I'd be in and out in both directions. but and then I would never look back. I think I don't know where this is going to go but I do believe it eventually comes back down.

I Mean we know that they're attempting to dilute or they will be deluding it. So we know the company itself is going to start selling shares to raise money, probably to make their debt situation a bit better. We've seen this like so many times before. so so many times before.

I Disagree I Like their future? Um, well. they're fundamental. Like their income sheet, their balance, their balance sheet, their cash flow would all beg to differ. Um, but if you want to, if you think Carvana out of the whole ecosystem of things you could invest in right now.

If you think Carvana is like a top option because we don't have unlimited money, you have a finite amount of money so you have to divvy up your money between theoretically the best options. if you think out of the entire ecosystem of things you could invest in right now. if you think Carvana is the top one Dude: I Mean really? Carvana. Out of all the things going on in this world right now, you think Carvana is like you're like dude.

I Just got to tell everyone about this. Carvana is like the next major thing. It it's not I mean look look at its stock. This: This is typically and maybe crazier things have happened.

but when a stock goes from 378 all the way down to six dollars that that's what you're looking at. You're like dude, just got to get me a piece of that. Gotta get me a piece of that I mean if it comes around like there could be I mean I Fully admit there's tradable potential here. but I would not invest in it that is not some place.

I'm parking my money thinking this is like one of the best investments. Um, not at all not at all. I mean even right now, just even the opportunities that we're seeing in just the market like it's a game of capital efficiency of putting your finite amount of capital in what you perceive to be like the highest odds of a positive return. And to look at Carvana and be like, yeah, that's where I'm just gonna park it I just don't see it.

Matt The dollar seems to be strong. Uh, might have a reversal coming. Well, please understand the dollar. Uh, there was just an announcement from the ECB.

So remember when you're looking at the dollar, it's not just the dollar, it's the dollar. Index It's the dollar being compared to the Euro, followed by the Yen followed by the pound. Um, and there's some other things in there, but those are the three major things that the dollar Index dxy is being compared to. So right here.

Well, and the reason I'm bringing that up is because that means The dollar Index can be moving on US dollar strength and or weakness or any of those other ones other currencies, their strengths or their weakness. So when the dollar is moving, you need to know why it's moving. And and that's why when I say there's an inverse relationship, but it's not like the strongest inverse relationship between the dollar and the market. Or yeah, the dollar and the US market is because you have to know what's causing the dollar to move.

And not long ago, around 8 15, the ECB the European Central Bank raises rates by 25 basis points says inflation set to remain too high for too long. So they're raising their interest rates and obviously that's going to be having an impact on the dollar. And also we just got crude and that's going to be having an impact. So my point is, when you're tracking it, don't ever just think dollar up Mark it down, Mark it up.

Dollar down. It's not that type of relationship. It is an inverse relationship, but not like a perfect like inverse. It's not a perfect mirroring you have to kind of dive in.

So with this this I mean look at when the dollar started to move right here. 8 15. it more so moved on the ECB numbers than anything else. Um, so this is probably going to be having an impact on the Euro obviously.

uh, and probably an impact on the pound as well I would assume I mean definitely an impact on the Euro Um, Actually, let's check out what the pound is doing. Uh, pound British pound pound coming down a little bit. So obviously if we're the way the comparison works with the dollar, Index is if the pound's going down, even if the dollar remains unchanged, the dollar Index is going to go up. So uh, just and also I Wanted to point out that uh, there's a lot of speculators who are currently long the pound.

They think this is going to keep going up. Uh, and once again, you can get this from the commitment of Traders report. The Cot report comes out once a week and we know that a lot of speculators 90 95 percent of speculators end up losing money. So uh, like mathematically statistically, You Could argue that you should always do the opposite of what speculators are doing.

and right now, speculators are very long the pound. And we just got this update from the ECB I Wouldn't be surprised if the pound actually keeps coming down and this isn't because of the US dollar, but if the pound drops, obviously, we're going to see the dollar Index goes up and that not that might produce the situation where the dollar could theoretically going up and the market keep going up. So kind of be careful with the inverse relationship between the dollar and the market you just have to dive into. Why is the dollar moving on that particular day? But definitely a phenomenal question.

Uh, any good trades today I Think there's going to be a really good trade on the S P 500 or the NASDAQ Um, I was alluding to this a bit before, but my major idea? What I'm gonna do Market's gonna open I'm going to dump my NASDAQ puts instantly. just get rid of them. I'm gonna go flat. I'm gonna wait.

and I'm gonna look for the market to pop. Whether it's the SPX or the Ndx, the S P 500 or the NASDAQ I'm gonna wait for it to pop I'm gonna wait for it to get rejected I'm gonna wait for it to consolidate at the exponential moving averages. whatever the five, the whatever, 10, the 20. just like the grouping of exponential moving averages, I'm gonna look for it to start to go up again.

I'm going to buy YOLO calls and I'm going to hope that we just rip for the rest of the day I Hope we rip for the rest of the day. That is what my, that's my base base plan. Um Matt is spreading so much misinformation I Feel bad for all of you. The man's knowledge of currency is horrendous.

Kevin you literally couldn't name a thing that I said that was wrong Kevin just sounds like a burner account from one of the people that we made mad yesterday. Um, like go fact check. What I said. Look it up.

Are you questioning what the dollar Index is or the relationship between the Spy or the dollar or the news of the ECB Like Kevin you're stupid I mean if you want we could go through and fact check everything I've said, but that would be kind of a waste of everyone's time. But uh, you? maybe you should waste your own time and just Google What the dollar Index is? Uh, you could I don't know. You could go to CNBC yourself and look at the ECB decision. from this morning.

you could see that it came out at 8 15. you could see that if you check out the dollar, this is exactly when it started moving. 8 15 was when we had the explosion. You could see the rough inverse correlation between the dollar strength and the market.

And that has to do because if the dollar is strong, any company that's doing international business when they convert it from whatever the locality currency is back to the US dollar. It hurts the revenue like Kevin Um, maybe maybe it's just time you simmer down. I Think you're fighting a little bit out of your weight class. Uh, what is the indicator use for internal data? um I use various ones like there's not a like um in my opinion.

When you're looking at Market internals for specifically for the S P 500, the New York Stock Exchange is the NASDAQ I don't think there's one size fits all I mean a lot of people look like to look at advancers decliners. A lot of people like to look at tick data. A lot of people like to look at um on balance volume. um I guess there's various things you could look at and when I look at it I try to look at all those and see if there's all kind of pointing in One Direction all kind of pointing in the other direction or if it's like a mixed bag.

but I wouldn't be here and be like oh yeah like this is the indicator you should be using. I Don't think indicators like that like even exist. um inverse Kevin uh Matt is spreading so much misinformation on Ice Andy's I've seen zero hookers yet? Hey man, that's not me I was reporting on a story from that mayor who I've he brought up some very very interesting points to say the least of allowing all of that on ice fishing you know I was just reporting on a story I if anything that was my my first involvement in the world of ice shanties. um the mayor was it mayor of like an Ohio Town super anti-iceandy it happens.

uh Matt's girlfriend's secret cat about to play the gap on yesterday's high. uh dump puts them by calls. What about playing The Gap Field 2 Yesterday's high So like the downside Gap Phil I mean it could happen today like there could be that sell-off Uh, but I wouldn't be playing it like I'm personally not playing it if you want to. I mean the odds for Gap those are still good but the reason we're up right now like there's clearly positive catalyst.

so I don't know if I necessarily want to be fighting that Trend at the the moment. um but hey, if you're feeling it, if you're like no, no, no, no um I guess I wish you luck but I'm definitely saying be cautious. you ever play around with Lux Algo indicators? No, not at all I know they have a lot I just haven't used them. Can you explain why Traders use ES1 to trade this by ES1 is the Futures Contract for the S P 500.

So you have the S P 500 which is 500 of just whatever. there's a group and they decide what 500 of the most influential stocks are. That's the S P 500 Index and that is the SPX. So spy is an ETF and exchange traded fund tracking the S P 500 and then Es is the Futures Contract for the S P 500.

So SPX is the real thing spy vo like the voo Vanguard like there are various exchange traded funds that are trying to track the S P 500 and I don't know like they do it, it's not that hard to do. and then Es is on the Futures market so that's a different Market um but once again it is tracking the S P 500. uh Matt it was the mayor of the Hudson Ohio that's where I live If you knew Hudson it would make it some you over the more of a crazy story. Do you ever get to see that guy around Troy you just call him Mr Mayor I Shanty I've seen Traders make spy trades by looking at the ES1 Well ES1 just means it's a front month contract.

So um the way Futures work is they have their contracts like you're buying and selling contracts and they have X like you have front months that's the one that's about to expire. then you have passed that and blah blah blah. There's various ones, some of them they roll over every quarter. Uh, oil goes every single month.

They have different ones depending on what you're training. Um but Es the reason someone's probably using that to trade spy is because es the Futures Contract for the S P 500 us it trades on what's referred to as the Globex session which means it's Trading 23 hours out of the day excluding Saturday so they might be using it just because it has more of like a filled out data set. Obviously in the middle of the night there's no data for the Spy so it's a little bit more choppy. but if you look at Es it's it traded all overnight.

So right here you can see what's going on at midnight. you could see what's going on at midnight. I'm bringing that up. just rush.

Roughly, that's around the Asian session. If you look from two to five in the morning to right here to this is London open and you can see from two to five. Obviously in the European session, the market continued to go up, so it's probably I would assume if someone is using ES to trade the Spy, they're most likely interested in what happened in. like other, what happened in the Australian session what happened in the Asian uh session? what happened in the European session.

they're probably just curious about the movement overnight. if I had to guess uh David Dude, do we just have one person making various counts Matt is spreading disinformation on all his viewers LMAO All of your trading is being hindered by being here. David Maybe maybe you just say like this is kind of weird because I think on the internet people are really having a tough time understanding like a reasonable way to communicate. So David First of all, that's not how you communicate if you're an adult at all and second name name a piece of misinformation that I've spread or disinformation.

I'll give you all the time I'll give you all the time I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Maybe just we're never taught by a parent the proper way to communicate, but we'll look past that. Um, and we'll name one page one piece of disinformation. Well, we'll engage in this.

We'll see what happened. I should have trademarked this information. Uh, is Tupperware A Squeeze Play I Don't Know I Honestly didn't know Tupperware was a trading stock Tupperware Brands Corp It is currently up 25. Do they have earnings? Um, if it is a squeeze play as quite a ways to go.

It looks like it's gotten its face kicked in and it's just making a recovery. I Mean it's up I Miss? Yeah, Well, no, its earnings are in August So it's not earnings. Uh. I Don't know what the news is about it, but it's up quite a bit in pre-market up 25 percent.

Um, as a data scientist with Automotive retail management experience, Who currently works for the largest automotive tech. Survey Company U.S Carvana is fundamentally unsound and is still on cash burn. I Mean you sound far more informed about this than I Am. I Literally just looked at their income statement, their balance sheet, their cash flow.

It's not a fundamentally good business and people want to argue it who haven't even looked into it? That's the craziest thing is, people will argue the fundamental strength of a company and why you should put your money in it. Even though they don't know the fundamentals, they all they know is they put the money in it themselves, they've invested and they're on pure hoping. Um, but it I mean with uh Automotive retail management experience he was currently working at the largest automotive tech. Survey Company In the US Carvana's fundamental and sound is still on cash burn.

It doesn't take much to see that. I mean like I said, you know far more about the situation than I do. But I mean I Came up with my thesis by seeing their cash burn. It's it's there.

It's in the numbers. like you just go on whatever Seeking Alpha or Finto. Just go look at their filings and you could see fundamentally what's going on with the company. It's not like some big brain thing.

It sounds like your breakdown's a big brain thing. Mine is a small brain thing. and I could even tell that it's definitely not a fundamentally strong company. It could turn around.

It could totally turn around, but it's not showing signs of it. And if anything recently, it shows that they're like getting themselves into the position where they can dilute their shareholders. Why would I ever buy a company that's about to be diluted. That just means that you're the sucker.

I I would never do that. but I Guess that's my opinion. Maybe some people like to get diluted. Maybe it's like a weird Kink for them or something along those lines.

Um, we're kind of getting off track today very quickly. Let me rip through some of the important things that we could also do. some technicals just to see how good Meta's looking, how good the markets are looking. Things are: super strong stock futures rise.

Meta pops. After a strong earning so review of yesterday, the FED Jerome Powell and all the other voting Fomc members decided to hike from five percent to 5.25 We got another 25 Bips rate hike that was announced at 2 pm. drone pal spoke at 2 30. the market went high, high, high, low, low, low and then popped in a little bit into close like kind of in the middle ground.

but it went really high, really low and then kind of bounced off of that. And now if you look what's going on in pre-market where do you even higher? Because of a pretty solid GDP report, economy growing better than expected. The preliminary reading for Q2 and then also from there we got a really good earnings report from that. A lot of people paying attention to that, especially because we saw Tesla and Netflix fall flat on their face Snapchat falling flat on its face Google Doing pretty well and obviously Meta echoing that same sentiment.

potentially giving a little bit more optimism as we come into Apples which is gonna be I believe next week, but I will double check on that early this morning. The ECB raises rates by 25 basis points, says inflation set to remain too high for too long I Forget what Ding Dong was in here saying uh that this had nothing to do so I'm sure it's just complete luck when this was announced at 8 15 this morning. I'm sure it's complete luck when this was announced at 8 15 this morning that that's exactly when the dollar picked up and started to go. Um I it's probably Pure Luck It's probably just my lack of understanding I Think this happened because of something else and I just don't have an understanding of currencies I Think it.

I Think it's just like coincidental that we saw that. Uh, probably probably super super coincidental. Oh wow, that's strange. And that's exactly when the Euro USD pairing started to move as well.

You know what? I I Think it's still coincidental. I'm not sold on the fact. uh, not sold on this fact whatsoever. Yeah, we'll have to come back to that.

Sometimes we're just getting lucky. All right. So GDP report came out long, strong, long, and strong. 2.4 The expectation was some people were saying 1.8 um CNBC was staying two.

Doesn't matter because the preliminary reading was strong Q2 As in what did the U.S economy do last quarter coming in better than expected and uh, initial jobless claims also coming in lower than expected. Uh, there is an ECB press conference that's actually going on right now I Want you to know that in about 45 minutes, we're getting pending home sales? but the other big big big macroeconomic report for this week is actually the inflation report, the personal consumption expenditure report coming out an hour before the Market opens tomorrow. so be ready for that. We will be streaming early tomorrow to see that, because it's going to cause the market to definitely do something.

GDP data set to reinforce Fed view that the US will avoid recession I was alluding to this a bit before: I'm dumbfounded by the fact that they they might be able to pull off a soft Landing I I when it comes to government and central banks. Maybe I'm a little too contrarian. Maybe I'm a little too pessimistic, but my base case is that we pay them way too much and they never do their job. I'm not even saying oh, they do a little bit of their job, but by the time we're talking about any elected official, by the time that we're talking about these, Central Bank Operators I like I just always have a base case of they're gonna mess things up and it would actually be better if they did nothing because when they do do something, it actually gets worse I Just have no faith in them.

So right now I I feel like my reality is potentially being blindsided like I just have been operating almost three decades of life thinking that they mess everything up and I I don't know. it's like an episode of Black Mirror or something, a central bank actually pulling off their job it I Feel uncomfortable I feel like my view of reality is almost getting shaken. so I don't I don't know I guess I'm gonna need some comfort because I just I Gave it a zero percent chance that they were going to be able to pull off the soft landing and now the odds are actually looking like they can pull office off Landing So uh, this this simulation is getting Crazier By the day our lizard overlords are currently running this whole thing, it is blowing my mind. the simulation that they're putting us in blowing my mind.

But anyway, GDP Coming in, strong inflation coming down I Do want to remind you though that Jerome Powell the chairman of the FED He didn't remind us yesterday that they actually don't think we're going to get back down to two percent inflation until 2025. so their base case is not even pulling it off in the next year and a half, so just want to throw that out there. All right. On top of all this, obviously lots of earnings last night we had Meta absolutely destroyed it.

We also had Chipotle absolutely with lambs of research. Also did pretty well this morning. Royal Caribbean McDonald's Southwest MasterCard Crocs After the market closes we get Ford Intel Roku and then tomorrow before the Market opens we get Exxon PNG and Chevron So some oil place in there. so let's take a quick look at these Meta reports.

Better than expected results and issues optimistic guidance for the third quarter. What's crazy about this is they beat and they still had like a large I Want to get the exact number? Where is it? Um, it was in excess of a billion dollar loss on the Metaverse So Meta is still shoveling just bucket loads of fire of money into the fire of the Metaverse? They're just so much money is getting burned. What is this one? Real or reality? Labs Unit, which is tasked with developing the Metaverse. Uh, brought in 276 million in sales during the second quarter while posting a 3.7 loss of 3.7 billion.

3.7 billion loss. Unit losses will continue to increase meaningfully year over year due to our ongoing product development efforts in Augmented reality, virtual Reality, and Investments to further scale our ecosystem. So they're burning 4 billion on the Metaverse and they're about to burn more. Do you know how much higher Meta would be right now if they just didn't do this? If they just completely said nope, we're not.

Do you know what's better their numbers would be? Their revenue would have been at 36 ish give or take. Depending on how some of their I don't know funky accounting's done, their revenue would be so much higher if they just stopped burning it on the Metaverse. If they just took that and decided to go all in on AI right now, the report would be amazing. It would be so freaking good.

and it was even good this time around. I Mean have you guys seen Meta this morning? Meta is currently up 9.5 and that's with a 4 billion dollar loss. 3.6 billion dollar loss on the Metaverse. Do you know how much higher it would be right now? The fact that they just keep doing it like I mean I Thought my options trading was degenerate Facebook Putting money into the Metaverse is the most degenerate thing and they're still pulling it off blows my mind blows my mind.

But Meta, if you have Meta calls congratulations to you. They crushed it. Chipotle Share slide as sales fall short of Wall Street expectations so you can see right here. Cmgs: Chipotle Currently down 7.8 closed out the day at 2087 currently trading at 1925, down 7.8 on a swing and a miss McDonald's earnings top estimates as eaters flock to us and China restaurants.

so we're actually if you dive into McDonald's number which is under MCD is the ticker down slightly down point two six percent down 75 cents so not really moving a whole heck of a lot. Initial reaction was positive then selling off a bit here, but uh, decent expansion in international markets for McDonald's to say the least. Moving on Southwest Airlines Shares slide as cost rise unit revenues slip. l U V is Southwest down 6.8 I Have to admit found this one to be pretty sort of like surprising very much did United did well American did well Delta did well, did not expect this whatsoever from Southwest Uh.

Overall, still holding this breakout when we started talking about it in early. June Um, obviously giving back some of those gains now, but still in the green from that particular potential entry. Comcast beats expectations as higher prices offset slowing Broadband growth, so just wanted to run through the list of some of them. Remember after the market closes today, Ford Intel Roku tomorrow Exxon Chevron and also Procter and Gamble Interesting to pay attention what's going on to some of those consumer defensive plays in terms of today: Thursday July 27th Just from a seasonal standpoint, pretty neutral.

a little bit of a bullish push, a little bit of a bearish push. Recently, a little bit of a bullish push. the percentage of the Bulls versus the Bears winning essentially 50 50. Profit: Factor slightly favoring the Bulls, but overall, today's seasonality, nothing to like.

Really be basing our trades off of neutral more than anything else. Five things to know before that stock market Bell goes dignity. Ding ding ding today Thursday July 27th, 13 and 22. the Dow is just non-stop ripping If you've just been unabashedly bullish on the Dow man, I'd love to give you a did little Shake of the hand.

Uh, because what does Dr disrespect say firm handshakes all around it? just it's been ripping. It's been ripping. The Dow streak is now up 13 positive sessions something Wall Street hasn't seen since 1987. if it hits 14 on Thursday, it'll tie a record that dates back to 1897.

1897. folks I think there were dinosaurs around the last time the Dow had this much of a rip. I'm not really sure I don't exactly know when dinosaurs did or didn't go extinct, but all I know is that was a long time ago. That was a long, long time ago.

So I mean the last time we had this, you had T-Rexes YOLO and calls on the Dow. That's crazy. So here's here's for rooting that we have another one. Uh, what do we have? the Oh 22? That's how long ago interest rates were this.

High were 22 years ago McDonald's serves up. But when I'm impressed by their International growth metaflexes. ah dude, they're flexing and it's looking good. I mean they're definitely a muscular fella, but they would be they would be like Mr Olympia ready if they just cut off the metaverse gel profit slides making me a little bit interested.

Will say the least of what's going to be happening with Chevron and Exxon before the Market opens tomorrow. Higher prices boost Comcast We already went over the earnings. Pretty good numbers. Uh, do we have enough time? We do have enough time.

This has nothing to do with the market, but it does have to do with before when I was saying I just if you're in politics I inherently don't trust you if you're just any of these elected officials I don't trust you and in the past people, um, who are either I don't know if I want to call them Biden supporters or maybe they're just anti-trump They reach out to me when I make fun of Biden for being an old geriatric dude I'm allowed to make fun of them I'm allowed to make fun of them because he's the president of the United States He's clearly a geriatric. There's no if ands, or buts. His mental stability is not what it should be for him to be the most powerful person in the world. If you think it's fine that we have old dudes battling Dementia in highly influential, powerful positions I Think you need to get your head examined but they, for whatever reason thought I was bashing on Democrats I Want to make it very clear I think that's across the board I Have an issue with all these old people in office because it's just a fact of life.

Your brain is not working at the same capability as they did when they were younger. So now I want to show you what's going on with Mitch McConnell Mitch McConnell freezes at start of news conference. returns later Republican leader tells reporters he's fine after an episode McConnell suffered concussion this year. after falling.

it's sad I Feel bad for him I Feel bad for him I Feel bad for Biden I It's not comfortable to see people's brains turning into mush when you get a concussion at this age that can have irreparable damages. And apparently that's what's going down. So probably some of you have seen this. but he I believe it was last week.

or maybe within the past two weeks he fell, hit his head, got concussed, and then he was doing the speech and it it did. It's gonna make you feel some sort of way. Well, good afternoon everyone! We're on a path to finishing the NDA This week has been good. Bob hours in cooperation and a string of uh did so sad I mean he's obviously having some sort of episode in his brain like his neurons are just like, do you want to say anything else to the Press he's just having an episode I I feel for him I Do That's a very sad thing to see.

that's a reboot the Holograms and it was related to your injury from earlier this year where you suffered a concussion. Is that um, fully able to? You know earlier this year I thought it was within the past two weeks. Uh, so that's really bad. and I mean you can feel for him as a human, it is sad when a very important organ such as your brain is not working.

But we could also say that maybe you shouldn't be the Republican Leader that it's just I I Don't get it I mean you look at Mitch McConnell You look at Biden you look at Feinstein Uh you look at Fetterman. These are all people who should not have the power they have because they are not mentally fit enough to wield that power. It is not a good situation. It's not a left thing.

It's not a right thing. it's just a fact of life. We're not gonna sit there and sing Kumbaya and say in this world we're all equal and we all can do the exact same thing. And there's no no.

some people are more fit for certain situations. and when it comes to politics when there's I don't know a lot of brain power involved, maybe we should have people whose brains are working a little bit better. just a little bit better I Don't know I guess I'm picking on Biden McConnell Feinstein and Fetterman, there's probably many more. Those were just the first four that pop into my mind because when we see any videos or anything of them, it's sad I feel really bad from it makes my like skin crawl.

It makes me cringe. That's this. This is elder abuse like that's a very legitimate question. At what point does it become elder abuse that they keep Feinstein in there that they keep Biden in there that they keep McConnell and they're like dude like at a certain point at a certain point it I we should like call the cops and just say hey, we think that they're abusing this old grandma or grandpa.

just want to throw that out. There has nothing to do with the market, but just something that was making its rounds on the internet so wanted to share it with all of you. Let me get these charts ready for the day. All right? Uh, you guys know my plan at open I have cue puts I will be dumping them and then I'm going to be doing nothing for the first whatever 10, 20, 30 minutes I'm looking for a push in the market I'm looking for a pullback to, um, the just zone of exponential moving averages and I'm looking for it to pick up and continue and then I just hope we have a ripper of a day.

That's what I'm looking for. Will it come? I have no idea, but that's what I'm looking for. That's what I want to happen. That's part of my trading plan for the day.

so I wanted to share that I'm obviously bullish on the day. I Mean we're having big breakouts. Yes, there are downside Gap fills if you want to play those I would just recommend Extreme Caution on the Spy weave a downside Gap fill to what is this? Uh, 456.99 and then on the cues it is down to 379.24 I think we're a little bit too high I think we're a little bit up up and away so I don't know if it's going to happen today, but it obviously could. I'm personally not going to be playing it because I just think the Market's too strong and I don't want to be getting in front of a steamroller.

Do not want to be getting in front of a steam roller. So on that note, we have 55 seconds left till the Bell goes dingy. Ding ding ding I Need to know from you comment right now. Are you going for a green day? Are you going for a red day? What do you think? It is? A bullish date Or a bearish day? from Market open to Market close.

Where do you think we're going? Bullish Bearish. Where's everyone at first vote: I See is bullish Bullish Red never too high. Green Green Red Red There's still some bears in here. What has to happen for the Bears to like? throw in the towel sideways Red green I'm taking profits Moon Baby Green Choppy both sideways and slow.

Breaking records today. Uh, green green God Green Candle Good green candle Never Surrender All right. Well, we'll see how it goes. Uh, all right, the casino is open.

Best of luck though. I'll play responsibly if not have fun. We'll see how this plays out. All right.

We're gonna see if I can save anything from this position. it is only down 98. Maybe I could. Maybe if it only goes down 95 percent.

That is what happens when you have zero. DTE puts on a massive Gap up. Oh, painful, painful, painful, painful. All right.

Uh, maybe I should just dump these. It's not like anything's gonna. What if this is just like one of the most horrific reversals? like what if we really do just vomit all day? I don't That's not my base case by any means. I Mean we just we're up too high.

But what if we do have just a giant, bearish engulfing candle today? I Mean we already know that the the authors of our simulation love to play giant pranks on us, so maybe we maybe we should expect the unexpected. You know, maybe that should be our base case. Never forget unless you're Mitch McConnell Oh, brutal, brutal, brutal, Brutal. All right.

What? Uh, what? are some of your major watches for the day? Obviously at Market Open, we should see what's going on here. A little bit of selling, Probably just some profit taking from the giant. Gap up Um I Know there's probably people waiting, like probably watching the market open to huge gains. So I applaud all of you right now.

If you had the balls to swing some calls overnight, you deserve it. I Hope you are laughing I hope you're laughing all the way to the bank I Really really? do? Uh. Alien Dinosaurs? Uh Carl I Don't know what that's in reference to, but I'm on your side. Whenever anyone's talking about alien Dinosaurs we're here.

That's a show for the UFOs Very strange. The UFO hearing uh that I believe went down yesterday I Don't know if it's continuing today, but they had whatever dude like under swarm testimony which I'm not saying that obviously people have lied under sworn testimony. basically just saying yeah, no, totally there are aliens. Which I mean that's a different question.

Do I believe there's aliens? Statistically, there has to be. If you're just looking at all the habitable habitable planets in the universe, statistically, some of them are gonna have life. It's a very different question to say have aliens been on our planet and as of now there's a small grouping of the US government that is saying oh yeah for sure. but then a lot of other people are pointing out how that it literally could just be them trying to like say hey, look at this news while like other more important things are going on so I don't know.

tough to consider place. order all right I got out of those. So now I'm flat, flat, flat, flat, flat flat flat flat flat. All right.

You guys know my game plan for the day: I'm looking for a pop as I alluded to before, I'm looking for a pullback and then I'm looking for some form of a consolidation and then ideally a rip for the rest of the day. Uh man, what a nice Gap up on the Spy if the Spy can hold 458 I'm watching 462 if the cues can hold a 380 250, I'm looking for the upside Gap fill of 384 30 and then that would be followed by maybe like 387-ish Um, that is a little bit more of some swing targets. If you're looking for some intraday targets, what do I have for you? Let me check this out. We just have such a ripper of a day already.

Absolutely wild. Absolutely wild. Hang on I Need I need to do some extensions? Show extensions All right. Uh, spy potential intraday Target of 460.

that would be the first thing that I'm watching. And the cues? Uh I'd be watching 385. So 385 on the cues and once again, 460 just under 460. Actually, the Spy is already almost there.

so about another 60 cents dude already Off to the Races Matt had given back some of the gains but still up 7.77 Tesla dance around 268. Apple very strong out of the gate at 197. Microsoft not doing too much yet today Nvidia shown some strength Netflix selling off a bit meta selling off a little bit but still green on the day in Amazon also showing some strength. In fact, Netflix is the only red one I'm seeing right now Netflix looking a little weak, not being able to catch a a bid like the rest of its cohort not able to catch a bid.

Wow. The cues and the Spy just so strong. So incredibly strong. Wild to see.

Absolutely wild to see. All right. Where are we at? Um, just if you're tuning in right now, want to let you know I Currently have no position I am bullish on the day that's my bias might be right. might be wrong.

I Have no idea. Looking at the daily chart, it's telling me the trends to the upside. Looking at the market internals. that's bullish.

That's neutral. That's bullish. That's bullish. That's bullish.

Okay, so one neutral reading all the other ones I check are bullish readings and the trends. to the upside. it's you might want to be a bear, but you would need to wait for some sort of confirmation to be betting against this because it really feels like you might just be