Thank you thank you Oh brother oh brother oh brother hello hello hello. Welcome back to another specialty episode of the Matt Core show. where your Mac cores and the show and I'm just a guy. Well, the Fomc results will be coming out in a mere 15 minutes.

so send your prayers up to the market Lords above and let's hope that this goes in the direction that we all want it to go in. Now the Fomc results come out at 2 P.m ET today. So buckle up, secure your socks because we don't want to knock those bad boys off. And then at 2 30, the Overlord Sith Lord Dark Vader Lord of the Monetary Policy System here in the US Mr Jerome Powell The Chairman of the FED will be speaking at 2 30.

so we're going to stream it all. We're going to have a bit of fun in the sun because why not? Why? let's just maybe see if we can make some money on this whole situation. So I Hope you're ready I Hope you are buckled up I Hope you are really just ready for some crazy volatility because between two and three 2 30 in the rest of the day we're gonna have some movement. I'm feeling ready I'm amped up.

There's so much dopamine in my brain right now because is uh, in between break I Just crushed 150 flights on the stair stepper and I'm feeling top of the world like literally I felt as if I was carrying my own P L up as I was just crushing it flight after flight I Don't know if I was stair stepping or rather pushing the gym down I'm not sure what happened and I think there's actually a very reasonable physics based case for the latter. I think I literally might have just been lowering the entire Earth every time I was going up so it wasn't I Matthew Coors who ascended 150 flights I think it was literally the Earth that I pushed down the same distance as 150 flights. So obviously with that being said, it's going to be a doozy. It's gonna be a doozy two day now obviously.

I Just want to give everyone a little bit of a prep. We know that the rate hike is going to be 25 bips. There's a 99 chance it is going to be 25 bips. What's really going to decide the next major trend on a multi-day basis for are we skyrocketing or is the run over is all going to come down to not only what Powell says, but the interpretation of Powell's speech.

So obviously I would be I just after reviewing the last 12 Fomc meetings. I Just beg of you to not think of the movement from 2 to 230 to be the definitive piece of evidence of what's going to happen from 2 30 to 4 pm. In fact, odds would tell us that in fact 10 out of 12 times 9 out of 12 times depending on how you want to count it. There's actually a hardcore reversal from the 2 to 230 movement from 2 30 to 4.

So this is why exactly we have the saying of the first move is the wrong one. and that's exactly what people are referring to. That first move, that first chunk of move ends up getting faded and more than reverted when Daddy Powell ends up speaking. So please, if you see gigantic rips to the upside or the downside, right when the Fomc results come out, don't automatically think that That's how it's going to just keep going for the rest of the day.

Obviously it could happen, but the odds tell us over the past 12 Fomc meetings, looking back the past year and a half, that a lot of trickery ends up happening. So for me personally, I'm basically just gonna end up waiting for the two to two thirty movement to play out, wait for Pal to start speaking, and then see if I can identify a trend with obviously ideal risk to reward from Pal. Speech onward for the rest of the day. That's my own plan.

obviously. do what's appropriate for you I Hope whatever you do makes you boat loads of money I Hope it brings you happiness I hope you find what you're searching for I Just wanted to share my own opinions on I Guess the specific situation now obviously coming into today, things are a little bit to the downside. I mean obviously the Spy sold off it, ripped back, it sold off Again, we're closer to the bottom of the day than we are to the top of the day, but who knows. Honestly, we've been here so many times before that really, you could think of today as three individual trading days from 9 30 to 2, from 2, 3 from 2 to 2, 30 and 3 30 to 4.

it's three incredibly different phases that don't necessarily have an implication on the other one once again, and just to remind you of some stats, facts and figures, Commonly, whatever happens from 2 to 2 30 is undone from 2 30 to 4. but I'm not going to sit here and guarantee that with 100 accuracy because it doesn't happen 100 of the time. and also to comment on the movement of 9 30 to 2 the section of the day that we're in right now with only 10 minutes to go, it it. there's no indication, really, it's just whatever.

Also, in terms of like, if you're feeling bullish or bearish I want you to know in terms of Fomc days, out of the past 12, it's six and six. Six have been green days, six have been red days going into this meeting I am not bullish I am not bearish. Maybe if I just looked at the price action of the daily chart I'd be like oh, it looks like the Bears have the upper hand, but I'm not particularly vying for One Direction or the other. What I'm looking for is a movement from two to two thirty and then ideally pal start speaking and that moves gets faded and I want to hop on that I don't care if it's bullish I don't care if it's bearish I'm going with the trend so obviously as it's all playing out in real time, I'll try to explain it to you to the best of my ability on that particular Note I I Also want everyone to remember just in terms of odds.

uh, whatever the day is from open to close. If it ends up being a green day, good chance. Pretty solid. Good chance that tomorrow is also green.

Also, if today is Red from open and close, if by the time the Bell goes dingy ding ding ding at close, if it's red, there's a good chance that tomorrow is a red day. So I don't really have the There's no statistically significant piece of information if these are red or green days, but it is statistically significant to say. Whatever we get today, as in, from today's open to close, not from yesterday's close to today's close I'm talking from today's open to today's close, A little bit of a repeat tomorrow in terms of just if it's green, we're looking for green. If it's red, we're looking for red.

Once again, not 100 accuracy, but decent odds to say the least. Now with that being said, the queue is getting a little bit of a pop despite getting a little bit of a pop. But as you can see, ever since about 1pm over the past hour, we've just been in a hold pattern that it's exclusively just been a hold pattern. So let's see how this all ends up playing out.

Matt There's been a 99 chance of rate decision before that has turned into a surprise decision. Uh, not that I can aim of in recent history. Uh, based on really looking at the bond. Uh, Slash yield market right now when there's these types of odds I've never seen it Go the opposite way in the U.S market.

Uh, you might be able to point to a specific one, but none is coming to my mind in recent history. Um, literally a 99 chance. So I don't think the major movement of the market for the next multi-day stage is going to be coming from the rate decision unless there's a massive surprise in it, which is possible I'm not guaranteeing anything but I think it's going to more cause more. So once again, just to reiterate come from the Market's interpretation of what Pal has to say: is he leaning dovish? Is he leaning hawkish? Which way is he leaning commonly considered to be a little bit more more of a Centrist But hey folks, we're going to find that out in about 40 minutes.

But we find out the Fomc decision in about eight minutes. so I Hope everyone's ready I Hope everyone's already I Hope everyone's ready now. A very, very quick question. This is going to help me out a lot if you guys could before we get rocking because I know I'm going to forget about it before the Fomc results come out at 2PM Could you help me out? Please and destroy the like button? Let's Jack the likes up to 500 on YouTube And what can we feasibly get on? Rumble On Rumble We're looking at a hundred right now, so if you guys are watching right now, it's completely free.

It helps me out the YouTube algorithm. It helps me out the rumble leaderboard. I Know it's knowing to remind you, but I cannot articulate enough how much it really helps me. So if you enjoy this type of content, if you enjoy my commentary on the market, my degenerate trades, winning money, losing money if you like what I'm doing, show me by just hitting that like button because it just gets this out in front of other people.

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So shout out to Street Show them a bit of love for sponsoring not only me, but obviously the community which allows us to keep doing what we are doing. Let's take a look at the market. Yeah, you caught me degenerately looking at the 15 second chart here looking weak to me. I see the EMAs in the red? But it's not like technicals really matter all that much right now, especially as we're coming into a ridiculous, ridiculous announcement.

I'm excited I'm excited I'm excited I'm excited I'm excited. Isn't there a 60-day delay anytime you try to follow? Congress Nope. don't know where you got that. Um, so they have up to 45 days to report it and then the database itself theoretically could take another 45 days.

So there is a theoretical chance that when Congress trades, the public doesn't find out about it for 90 days, but that's the maximum. They could report it the day they do it and it could also be public the day that they do it. But technically they are breaking the law if they wait more than 45 days. Uh uh.

AMC sucks I Don't know if AMC sucks, but Adam Aaron sucks. The leadership team of AMC sucks. Um, but I Still like the fact that somewhat AMC is symbolic of just like the retail movement and calling out some of the just like crazy things that end up happening on Wall Street that should not be happening. So I think some of the symbolism of AMC I still very much support.

fundamentally I don't like the business. It's not a good fundamental business. and anyone who, anyone who thinks it's a good fundamental business, doesn't know how to do a fundamental breakdown if we're being completely honest. I mean it's actually a little I mean it's actually very, very crazy to think that AMC is a good fundamental business.

I mean if anyone tells you that they've just never done a fundamental breakdown in their life, but hey, it it happens. I mean a lot of people like to talk on Twitter and a lot of people talk on Twitter without knowing what they're talking about. but still I I Support I I Want AMC to go up I just have serious serious serious issues with the likes of Adam Aaron I think he's a complete scumbag? Um, all right. uh.

AI Pelosi Trader Yeah, you could copy AI Well with AI you could copy Congress including Pelosi I Feel like they should make a Pelosi specific one I Saw a video today games it will go to 175. Yeah, that's because people don't understand the Goldman Sachs analyst take on any of this. which I don't know. It's kind of wild.

Kind of wild. Kind of wild. All right. foreign.

I Just um, doing a little bit of account management here as we are coming into the meeting. I have the Fomc stuff I'll put it over here just so it's not distracting anyone. My hair is so wet. well at least you guys now know that.

I I do shower after working out Apple Taking a little bit of a hit into this, we have about two and a half minutes I Want to cover this Insider Trader A Little bit later, just thought it was a interesting story. but here we go here. We go here. We go here.

we go. Feels like it might be a barn burner of a day. A barn burner of a day. Oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother.

Dude, the cues are basing below yesterday's low. The Spy is basing just above yesterday's low. The internals are completely neutral. I Don't think the market is quite confident in how this reaction is going to end up playing out.

so I'm excited I think we're going to see some fireworks? I do I do I do I do I do I do All right, let me make sure everything is ready. So once again, our numbers are still somewhat sticky. Once again, just so you guys know the FED fun expectation which it could be a surprise, but it's a massive Rarity Uh, right now. 96 chance that we are getting 25 Bips 96 chance of a 25 Bips rate hike that would bring us to 5.25 We're currently sitting at five percent just so you know the next meeting is in late.

September September 20th once again. Just so everyone knows. And on that note, what time are we at? We are about a minute out a minute. Everyone freaking.

Buckle Exactly right. Tyler So it's really just a year-over-year measures monthly remote CPI has been coming in, you know? came in last at 0.2 percent. We need to see 0.1 numbers that might be harder to get. All right.

So so David back to you. um uh Jim says in his view I think I if I heard him correctly, where do you think we're gonna Above and below that or above that you have 60 seconds to answer me or it doesn't count. Red Red downed. Why are more people red right now? Wow, there's definitely more bears in here.

What in tarnation? What in tarnation? Market Bearish? Trust me. All right, someone did say trust me that was David So should have some confidence in that. you should try a minute to go. Stephanie Uh, we have the S P 500 up five percent since the last fed decision.

What's the first thing on your screen that you take a look at when that decision crosses? Oh well, the overall reaction. but I don't want to get too caught up in the short term. Oh brother, you have to digest. Uh, for you know, 24 hours.

Everyone calm down. Just breathe in terms of what exactly they said. but I don't really think that there's going to be big surprises on this one. I think it's well telegraphed 25.

It's all. but it's just about a matter of the tone in at the press conference which again, I don't think it's going to be very hawkish. Yeah, well, it doesn't sound like there's too much suspense hanging in the air right now. I Guess what the expense is? Whether the Dow I don't even think the numbers came out, it just sold into it in the green.

It is on the cusp right now. Let's get to Steve Lisman all over the place. That's decision I have no position. By the way, as of 2 Pm, no position.

the Federal Reserve Raising interest rates by one quarter of a percentage point. That brings the new range to five and a quarter to five and a half an hour to the upside down. it continues to Signal The possibility I Love these days it's just it's going to be. It's the people going.

What's everyone's heart rate at Right now? you're not clocking in at quad digits. you're not doing it right July was on the table. Uh, it says in doing so as it did say say in June it will take account of the cumulative and lagged effects of Prior hikes. Economic growth was raised just a little bit.

They're saying it was moderate economic growth compared to modest in the priorities. I Guess a modest upgrade you could call it uh job games. We were both robusty on a public rate remains low. Give us Rick give us Rick or give us death remain.

Remain in the statement about tighter critical once again. I currently have no position I'm just chilling right now the copy of the prior statement guys. The only difference here is they took out holding to raising. They raised by a quarter point and now they're back into this mode here of determining the extent of additional policy firming.

that may be appropriate. so there's your guidance line have at it Tyler The language there David Yeah on extent it is. It's clear that they did not say whether additional policy for uh firming is yeah I think unfortunately I think we're going to see that in Uh chairman Powell's press conference too. where I I'd be interested to see the last time Randy talked about further rate hikes.

The committee was in favor of further rate hikes you know, plural I think I think I still I think that's still an open question Will they talk about additional policy catching a bid? Well, that could be one or two. So if the first one is the wrong move and we go up from two to two thirty, does that mean we're going to get rocked into the rest of the day? Think about them saying hey, we made some progress inflation yeah the people going. So so I I Heard an important word there and that is unfortunately I think we're going to hear the same thing in the in the prayer because this is they're playing this game of monetary Jenga where we don't know economy intercession. But if we're headed, you know for three percent inflation, what's the big deal? I'm sorry for those you know, if we're at age that we need to deal with it, but if it's three percent full, pulling down to two, it's not worth threatening the economy with recession.

And to be honest, we don't know threaten us. But moving from zero percent rates to five and a half percent rates over a short period of time, we don't know what that will do to financial assets to the whole economy. The U.S banking system is sounding resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.

The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. The committee seeks to achieve maximum employment inflation at the rate of two percent. over the long run And the support of these goals, the community decided to raise the target range for the Federal Fund rates to 5.25 to 5.5 The committee will continue to assess additional information of its implications for monetary policy and determining the extent of additional policy affirming that may be appropriate to return inflation to two percent.

Over time. The committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy at the lags with monetary policy affects economic activity and Inflation and the Economic Financial developments. In addition, the committee will continue reducing its Holdings and treasury Securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed Securities as described in it's previously announced plans. The committee is strongly committed to returning installations to two percent objective and assessing the appropriate sense of monetary policy.

The committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic Outlook The committee would be prepared to adjust the sense of monetary policy as appropriate if risk is merged. that could impede the attainment of the committee's goals. The committee's assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and the financial and international developments. so nothing too special, nothing too special.

We got .25 and they basically said what they've said in the past. so like I don't know there's nothing to run home to Mom about in that report and that's exactly why the fun is coming to us at 2 30. 2 30, 2 30 2 30. let's go folks.

Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go.

Let's go. Who needs chat DBT when I could just read it for you I agree with David Rick no idea for sure we don't want to miss out on vehicle to get there. Bring us Rick our panel still with Usani and Rick Santelli also joins us here. um in the rates.

but uh, what's your reaction to the statement? Yeah, no, not much reaction rate since with respect to this, hell yeah brother. I Don't feel I walk away any smarter. To me, the issue is hot. Same here I Never really feel much.

Do they go passive? Do they let the markets work more active approach I Think the latter is the route they're going to end up taking and everybody's been bringing up data I Like it's about normal percentages, it really makes us somewhat easy. non-farm jobs from the first half of this year, the last half the last. Yeah, we're down 21. Private payrolls in that same period are down 32 percent we're talking about CPI earlier.

Yeah, 9.1 down to three. That means a 67 drop. If you look at core, it's a 27 drop. These are spitting fast numbers and it's hard to argue with I Agree with David for sure where inflation goes, but it certainly seems as though it is going to continue to come down.

And when we look at some of the year-over-year numbers I understand there's some nervousness there. but I Also see a definite move in the month over month numbers. especially on the inflation side People point to confidence is one of the strengths I Understand that, but that skewed confidence always seems to follow the stock market. So that's what we're left with.

the stock market. Why are investors fighting the FED Are they? And if they were, it makes it a whole lot easier to fight it Now because they're definitely in the 7th, 8th, or ninth inning and it's going to be. It brings up fair questions. Easier for investors to now think: hey, money markets look pretty good Market's looking a little heavier Are we going to sell here? Initial possible uh, fomo.

With regard to missing this stock looking a little heavy, we're coming to the support on both the spine I Think that the central bank is buying itself time and whether they actually start hiking again next year I Can't tell you. but I'll put another bet out there I Lost because they hiked this time, but I say they're done for the rest of the year. Babazani as I used to say on the exams in college react and discuss yeah, the uh. What's interesting here is evaluations are high and we're entering a seasonally weak time.

What changed? A little bit of a problem. economic activity at a moderate Pace Downside. One final point is the whole school evolving. There is continues.

They switched out like four words and they called it a day easy. And they're barely a change. deal with the fact that their margins are getting squeezed a little bit. That's sort of a disinflation story and that's a potential uh uh, real uh tail excuse me.

Had to consider extent of additional firming to curb inflation that we had just a couple. Maybe they're having a hard time raising prices because they've already raised them so much. I mean thank you 17 for a jug of detergent at the grocery store? That's that's pretty easy translation folks. Jim Karen Let me turn to you I mean David Mentioned the idea that if there's a recession, it's going to be a little baby when I'm I'm I'm thinking of inventing Anna the Anna Delvey story with Julia Garner Did it hurt your little baby feelings? Are we gonna have a little baby recession or not? What do you say Jim it's a little baby feeling I'm in the camp that uh, if we do have a recession, it's a smaller recession and look I I'd like to see the recession come quicker I'd like to see it start in the fourth quarter because the sooner we have a recession, the more mild it's going to be.

The longer it takes to have one, the more excesses that are going to be built up and it could be more devastating. I Don't know Mr Morgan Stanley Investment Management Think about how the FED is looking at this right if we have an inflation problem if that's the viewers okay, the cut rates and then we research with inflation. then I start to look at the yield curve and I say it's very very messed up right now. Do we have to then restore and rebuilding? The back end of the market still seems priced more for harder landing and I think there's some disconnect there in the markets.

see Lisa Let's go back to you. Uh, we are not too long away from the Fed's press conference at this point. Indecisive question. dipped at first, then pop.

Now we're going sideways. so I want to make a comment about should we go to the one second chart? A quarter point doesn't matter I Think people need to be aware of the kind of fine-tuned engineering that Powell's trying to do here. If you go back and look at what's happened to the two-year since June Remember held in June did not raise rates What happened to the two-year it gradually lifted higher. What happened today the two years down.

Oh, a couple bips. maybe not at all. What's going on here is that Chairman is trying to kind of tweak or fine-tune the funds rate. not without, at least in the two-year space being a huge decline in rates that would be stimulative to the economy.

So that's why those other 25s or the additional 25s and the possibilities. That's why it matters. I Think it's a bit like a balloon. you get up there and you you put the burner off a little bit.

you maintain your altitude because it's the barn. Bird that's what he's trying to do. He's not had as much success in the stock market, which may indeed Melissa be One of my questions is how much concern the Chairman has about the loosening of financial conditions as evidenced in the uh run of the stock market. but at least when it comes to the area that he directly or more directly controls which is the short end of the yield curve.

What? I think he's trying to do is to keep those yields High while backing off and not letting the market begin to price those rate Cuts in that market picking up stimulus from the stock market as well as from the bond market I mean since yield has gone up 40 basis points and the S P 500 has gone up five percentage points Um, Market internals are holding that factors into the FED thing. bullish in a way maybe pushing 455. Market's happy right now, but it's freaking me out. The risk definitely freaking me out because I know the odds of reversals I know I'm a little bit of a crazy person, but I was look at this I even color coded it I was like okay.

the blue ones are the Fomc meetings from this year. the white ones are the Fomc meetings from last year and your boy went into it I did a deep dive I said oh okay, let's look at how this plays out. Red day led to a red Day Green Day led to a green day. We had a little bit of a reversal right there.

Green right there. These are the two weird reversal ones May and June of last year. and then beyond that Green to green red to red red TO Red red TO Red green to Green Uh, red to red and then red to red and then green to Green. So there's two main June of last year.

A bit of a Switcheroo if you will. So 10 out of 12 times whatever color day we have today feels like we might have that day tomorrow. Now if you were counting them: Green, red, red, green, red, red, Green green. Green And that's perfectly six.

and six out of the last 12 Fomc meetings, six have been green days. Six have been red days. now. If you really, really want to get into it, we'll have to say see what they say if you really want to feel froggy about yourself I Don't know what that means, but I Feel like it's fun to say you're still there with some rippity stupidity.

What's the other little fact? what I want to jump into I'm so amped up from the stair stepper folks I was I was like a goddamn figure skater on the stair stepper. 40 base points By the way, since the June meaning we're up half that, we're up 20. they're basically at 469, we're at 489. I Think if I had to wrap this up, the inverted yield curve is sticky and I do exactly agree that we need to steepen it, de-invert it.

But my feeling is the D inversion is going to mostly be by sure it's moving lower. Consider this: Yes, we move 20 basis points roughly into since last meeting, about 10 basis points in tens, but the stock market has zoomed rather aggressively since then. and if you look at just how much the stock market has moved really since the June meeting and compare that to money market rates, it certainly looks as though you have a tough choice to remain on the money market side. Having said that, there is a risk of course that stocks may start to move a bit lower.

but all things considered: I Think that's apples Fed models in the relationship The first time. things are looking bullish right now, which is honestly freaking me out. Explain in a hot SEC why it's freaking me out: What would your question to the FED be Bob A question on the stock market? Um, you know you brought up a great Point Melissa Uh, you're a good Market Watcher The pain trade all the healthier. It's her job it's been Market goes higher because people have bet against the soft Landing Now this is all starting to change.

The pain trade is for the market to drop rates to go up. So I I Think the logical question here is what issues does he see that concerns him right now and he's got to say the stock market in some way because to them that's a wealthy I don't think they should call it Bob I Think they should call him Roberto perceptions his personality a bit more of a Pizzazz It's so much better that inflation gets down to that two percent Target Imagine that Melissa Lee Firing it off to him Roberto Uh, hit us with that hot fish and range. That's an idea Helps the those are the ideas. I Give out for free.

Imagine the ideas I give out when I'm paid All right Stephanie Gentlemen thank you very much Informative panel. We appreciate your time today coming up. We uh now we are waiting to hear coming up coming up next. Roberto uh what was I doing before I was talking about being on the stair stepper.

um I don't know what I'm something about the stair stepper. but anyway, someone write this down. Someone write this down. You know what happened at 2PM You know what happened at 2PM on January 20th we popped.

Do you know what happened at 2 30? We got our rocked. So that's one for a reversal. All right, let's go to the next one we're going. that was January of last year.

that was that Fomc meeting. Now let's go to this one. the next one, the next one. The next one is when March Jeez Geez! Louise All right March You know what happened at 2 p.m we got rocked and then a reversal and a push.

So that's two where two to two thirty is completely undone. All right. Next one is May May May May May It's Gonna be Me I should have been in in sync, should have been, we're still in the wrong month. How long is April you know Wake Me Up When April ends Green Day Got that one wrong.

Okay uh, this one is actually one where it was kind of strange actually. So at 2PM we didn't do anything and then there was a big dip at 2 30 and then a hardcore reversal. So at first we did go down. but this was like at 2 30 to 2 45 and my point is it was still a big reversal of a day.

I mean around two we were at 4 18. We dipped all the way to 414 and then we ended up ripping. So basically 230 to 2 45. it dipped and then we started ripping.

So still a reversal of a day. And once again that was for May. So that's three reversals. The next one is June the next one's June the next one's June the next one is June the next one is sometime in June When in June there we go.

Uh, this one's easy peasy lemon squeezies. Obviously it's sold off. Got worse when he started speaking and then once again completely reversed. and then this one sold into the end of the day.

So once again a big reversal from the first move to the next one. So that is four in a row. This next one is in July July July July July July July July July July July July July July July July there uh this one. no reversal.

This one was kind of a strange one. It dipped a tiny amount like a little baby amount. It went from 396 down to 395. It dipped 50 cents and it was kind of there like looking like it wanted to and then boom So dipped a bit and then ripped.

But anyway this one wasn't a reversal, it was a muted move and then it ripped. So anyway still want you to know that this first move a little bit to the downside, then a pop. How did I Define this one this one? uh I Kind of said it did. It was a neutral move that ended explosion.

But once again my point is the major move came from when Pal started speaking important that's that's the main takeaway. Next one is September September September September September September September September September September September September September This one was a crazy one so this one got rocked. He started speaking, he tried to pop it and then it got rocked again. So this one is I'm not counting as like oh the first move is the reversal because in this one the first move did get reversed and then the second move got reversed.

So they hit us in September of 2021. in September 21st of 2022 they hit us with the old Kansas City Shuffle The first move was reverted and then the second move was also reverted. So this is one of the ones that's on as Rickson Telly would say, putting a little bit of a fly in the ointment. Uh, reversal reversal reversal.

So also obviously a pop like potential outcome, but not one that we've actually seen happen that many times. and that actually did happen again in December. But before we talk about December we have to talk about November November Another example: 2 to 2 30 a ripper. and then right when he started speaking, he messed the market up.

So a pop from 2 to 2 30. he talks rips it all the way back down. Uh, December was another tough one. a very tough whippy one.

Let's go to December let's go to December December December right here. December It popped a little going into it and then at two it got released. Then pal tried to revert it and then the reversion got smacked. So the December one and the September one were the very tough ones to trade of last year.

September and December were the ones that were kind of going against the normal pattern that we've been seeing so it got rocked hard. He tried to get it going up and then as in Paladin when he started speaking and then it didn't it just got completely reverted. Uh, so that was a tough one. once again, that was December the other tough one.

was September or September The one I just showed you was December Now let's fast forward all the way to February of this year. The first Fomc meeting, where are we here? We go here. We go here we go. So another classic one.

uh, this one actually got reverted by it. got smash reverted smashed again and then really. After he got done like he was talking, it got smashed and he kept talking and then he ended up pushing it up. So the classic getting smashed.

Reversal getting smashed. Reversal for the rest of the day. so kind of a normal pattern. The next one up is March March March March March March March March March March March March I Wish there was a way to hop to vertical lines I feel I Feel like trading views should do that.

Uh another classic one. this one popped. he started speaking got smashed. Classic reversal Classic reversal uh next one is May next one is May next one is May Next one is gonna be May May Right here.

Uh pop got smashed pretty easy Peasy lemon squeezy pop smashed. uh and then the lap. The most recent one June 14th. Uh and we are here.

This one got smashed at two and then reverted into close. So right here there is 10 out of 12 times in some way or another, the first move got reverted. Sometimes it was a small first move, sometimes it was a large first move and we were only reverted to the start. But overall, if you were to say why do we have the saying of the first move is commonly the wrong one.

Well, we saw that 10 out of 12 times. alt. gee Ah, What? what? Oh gee no. What else have you guys been keeping from me you little Scoundrels dude, that's sick.

That's pretty freaking neat. Uh, well, that's cool. See, this is why we have a community. Uh, you guys get to watch me lose money as you teach me things about my charting software that's pretty neat.

That is super neat I Appreciate that. Thanks for the info. Uh, if only I could give gold stars back. Uh, how close are we to being able to give gold stars back? By the way that that was definitely gold star worthy for sure.

it's like sorry I just have to stick to my my guns about like not doing gold stars. Let's see how close are we. Uh, the secondary channel is at 763. So I'm just saying if 250 of you subscribe to this Channel right now on YouTube you technically could get a gold star for your efforts, you I'm just throwing that out there I'm not I'm not saying you do want gold stars I'm not saying you don't want gold stars I'm just hey, if you want them, you want them.

Uh, if you want them, you want them. And that was definitely a gold star worthy piece of information. Um, so you are about 200 and what? 37 people away, 237 and we'll see how it goes. Throwing it out there.

We're throwing it out there all right. How are we looking in the market today? So this was the 2PM reaction. Obviously thus far we have popped from that moment. I Haven't done anything.

but if this starts to Crater if this takes out 453.80 I mean it's it's never guaranteed. Play Nothing about the market is ever, ever, ever ever ever guaranteed. But we know the odds are pretty good. Five out of six, five out of six.

That's what an 80 chance if I'm doing my math right 80 chance I like those odds I like those odds. um, link that channel sorry I mean it should be in the description here. I'll link it I'll do all the work once again. Matt Carrying the stream on his back there I threw it in chat.

Um, and just so you know, those videos on YouTube are two different channels, but on Rumble it's all on the same channel just so everyone knows. All right. Put that in chat. Uh, don't forget.

sign up for Street Beat. They're awesome. Show them a little love. Show them a little love.

What do you think about Wall and other bank stocks since the 0.25 remember March when the stuff happened, Could it be that bangs crash back down? Sorry I forgot to tag you? Um, well, the fear of that had to do with basically bad Bond positions, which it seems like a lot of that fear has been mitigated. But here, let's let's take a little look. You see, let's take a little look you see. So first of all, Pac W announcing a private Equity Group deal probably being taken over.

Uh, so that's actually up on the day to the tune of 26, so a little bit of a different story. There Wall is up 10. so if you look at the financial sector right now, it seems to be reacting pretty well to the current developments of monetary policy. XLF is the financial sector of the S P 500 I Highly recommend you start learning these other sectors because sometimes when we see Tech exploding I know like we're really Tech Centric because those are companies that a lot of people paying attention to the Cults were relevant.

They're fun, but sometimes you see Tech doing one thing and then the Spy is doing something else as of now over the past two weeks the reason for that is when text week. but yet the Spy has been holding is because financials have been strong and energy has been strong and you can track the major energy plays within the S P 500 by looking at XLE that's the energy sector of the S P 500 and right now Oil Oil actually was having a good morning until 11 30 and now oil is coming down. But overall, oil's been on the trip of ever since 67. Uh, oil right now chilling just below 79.

I Still very much believe it's going to the low 80s. That seems to be the next major resistance. but right now I'm hesitant to make any call outs because I want to know what the Market's going to do when Jerome actually starts speaking I Just went through painstaking efforts to keep scrolling on my chart not knowing that alt G was a thing. and I hope you at least learn from that painstaking piece of information that there is a lot of reversals.

In fact, out of the last 12 Fomc meetings, 10 of them have been reverted. So yeah, I mean I Guess you could argue that there's a one-sixth chance just based on recent history that we don't revert today. But where, oh dude, is it already? what is going on? Um, call my mom mom I don't want to play this anymore. Dude, the market doesn't know what to do.

Today we were popping. We went up to 455, got smashed down to 454. Dude, we are moving a dollar like it is. Nothing like it is nothing today.

Dude, this is getting wild and this is why I don't have a position right now because I don't feel like getting chopped up. If I was feeling a bit more lucky, maybe I'd play it. but dude that got smashed the cues went right into their low from yesterday and the market said no way Jose and kicked it in the ass. Dollars now popping.

Ooh the dollar. Catching a bid. The dollar is catching a bid. Well all I'm gonna do is be calm, cool, collected, and wait for pal to start speaking.

Uh, so you say there's a chance. dude, there's a chance of anything happening today. The Spy could end up at 500. It also could end up at 400 for all I know Dude I don't know what I'm doing? Look at me.

Do I look like a guy who has his life together. Do I look like a person who understands the economy or monetary policy I Barely figured out how to get this camera plugged into my computer and hook it up to my streaming software. Uh Jason just choked down 100K Law Spot puts Jason Do you want to join me in the 100K loss? Club It's a very exclusive but I'm in it. Uh, and you can join it too if you want.

We meet on Thursdays as in the next meetings tomorrow. If anyone else in here has ever blown 100K on a trade, you could also join the 100K loss Club Um, we don't have shirts yet, but we do have koozies and that's about. That's where we're at. That's where we're at if everything comes right, If everything really plays out well for me in the future, I'm hoping to join the Million Dollar Loss Club but not quite there yet actually because of AMC You could say I'm in the 500 000k loss club Dude: I'm in a lot of these lost clubs and not many of the game clubs.

Oh I don't think that's good. 200k checking in Oh the the Lost porn in this group is not bro. I'm the founding member I Think we need help Team: I Think we need some help Veneer We probably should. We should probably keep this within the group and not really talk to other communities about how big our losses are.

You guys have problems. you guys. You guys definitely have problems in here I Just wanna I Just want to put that out there. You guys have problems I'm not laughing at you I'm laughing with you.

The dollar is bouncing hard dude I think I need a new mouse or something. My mouse is doing weird stuff these days has a mind of its own. In fact, profile is that any better? No, it's not. It's not sliding with enough.

it's too. It's too viscous of a slide. You know, two viscous of a slide. Oh, this is disgusting is Palace Oh Palace speaking Mr Powell Where is he that's on Cnbc's here we go.

Didn't even miss him. All righty. All righty alrighty, alrighty, let me actually cut this out. Oops, where's the volume? There we go.

All right here. I'll get him up in one second. Good afternoon. Um, my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices.

For the American people, we understand the hardship that high inflation is causing and we remain strongly committed to Bringing Inflation Back down to our two percent goal: Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve. Without price stability, the economy doesn't work for anyone in particular. Without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. Since early last year, the Fomc has significantly tightened The Stance of monetary policy.

Today, we took another step by raising our policy interest rate a quarter percentage point. We are continuing to reduce our Securities Holdings at a Brisk pace. We've covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt. Looking ahead, we will continue to take a data dependent approach in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate.

I'll have more to say about monetary policy. After briefly reviewing economic developments, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Growth in consumer spending appears to have slowed from earlier in the year. Although activity in the housing sector has picked up somewhat.

it remains well below levels of a year ago, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates and higher interest rates. and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment. The labor market remains very tight over the past three months. Job gains average 244 000 jobs per month uh, a pace below that scene earlier in the year, but still a strong pace.

The unemployment rate remains low at 3.6 percent. There are some continuing signs that supply and demand in the labor market are coming into better balance. The labor force participation rate has moved up since last year, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54 years. Uh, just so everyone knows, I have no position right signs of easing and might not have declined so far this year.

While the jobs to workers Gap has narrowed labor demands still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers, Inflation remains well above our longer run goal of two percent over the 12 months ending in May Total Pce Prices rose 3.8 percent excluding the volatile food and energy categories. Core Pce prices: Rose 4.6 percent in June. The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index or CPI came in at 3.0 percent and the change in the core CPI was 4.8 percent. Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year.

Nonetheless, the process of getting inflation back down to two percent has a long way to go. Despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets. The Fed's monetary policy actions are Guided By our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. For the American people, my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher cost of Essentials like food, housing, and transportation.

We're highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning to inflation to our two percent objective. At today's meeting, the committee raised the target range for the Federal funds rate by a quarter percentage Point bringing the target range to five and a quarter to five and a half percent. We're also continuing the process of significantly reducing our Securities Holdings With today's action, we've raised our policy rate by five and a quarter percentage points. Since early last year, we have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy, particularly housing and investment.

It will take time, however, for the full effects of our ongoing monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation. In addition, the economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to two percent. Over time, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation and economic and financial developments.

We will continue to make our decisions, meeting by meeting, based on the totality of the incoming data and their employment, the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks we remain committed to. Bringing Inflation Back to our two percent goal into keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below Trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the FED will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you and I look forward to your questions.

Mr Chairman thank you. You have I think a couple times in your opening remarks talked about this language in determining the extent of additional policy farming that may be appropriate should we take that to mean that additional hikes are likely on the way. and should we also believe that all future meetings say September and November are live or are you in a every other meeting mood? Thank you! So we haven't made a decision to go to every other meeting. It's not something we've looked at, we're going to be going meeting by meeting, and as we go into each meeting, we're going to be asking ourselves the same questions.

So we haven't made any decisions about about any future meetings including the pace at which we'd consider hiking. But we're going to be assessing the need for Uh for the dollars to return inflation to two percent over time. Um, I Would say that the intermediate data came in broadly online with expectations. Economic activity remained resilient, job creation remained strong while cooling a bit, and the June CPI report actually came in a bit better than expectations for a change.

And the June CPI report, of course, was welcome, but it's only one report, one month's data. We hope that inflation will follow a lower path as Uh as was, but it will be consistent with the CPI reading. But we don't know that and we're just going to need to see more data. So what are we going to be looking at? Really, it will be the broader, the whole broader picture.

And starting with, we're looking for moderation. Almost two dollars a dollar fifty coming into better balance Russell the dollar particular in the labor market, the dollar itself will be does this whole collection of data, as do we assess it as suggesting that we need to raise rates further. and if we make that conclusion, then we will go ahead and raise rates. So that's that's how we're thinking about the next meeting.

and uh, you know how we're thinking about meetings going forward Potentially, but you know we're now mainly thinking about the next meeting. I Will also say since we're talking about it between now and the September meeting, we get two more job reports, two more CPI reports I think we have an ECI report coming later this week which is employment compensation index and lots of data on economic activity options. Market is slightly favoring form Artists as we go into that meeting. I Would say it is certainly possible that we would raise funds again at the September meeting if the data warranted and I would also say it's possible that we would choose to Hold Steady At that meeting, we're going to be making careful assessments as I said meeting my meeting because all these calls by saying we've raised the federal funds rate now by 525 basis points since March 2022 Monetary policy we believe is restrictive and is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation.

If I could just briefly follow up on something you said. There, you said the data in the interview. Lots of SPX calls coming in for today and tomorrow, but Microsoft pluses could have been a change in the uh, overwhelming Outlook of the committee that two more two days out people are nailing Microsoft You know that's lots of money going again, looking at all that and making that assessment then and it really. We did have the one good reading and of course we welcome that.

but it's just one reading. As everybody knows and and you know we've seen we've seen this before in the data. Many forecasts call for for rights for for inflation to remain low, but we just don't know that until we see the data. so we'll be focusing on that foreign.

Thank you. Thanks for taking our questions chair pal. Um, obviously you upgraded the language around growth in the statement today. You know we've seen the Barbie movie numbers.

We've seen everyone going to Taylor Swift concerts this summer. It seems like the American Consumer is in pretty good shape, and it does seem like growth is sort of picking back up a little bit, or at least doing well. And I wonder from your perspective if that continues. If we see growth, not just stabilizing, but doing, you know, performing well this summer? is that a problem? because it's inflationary? Or is it good news because it suggests that a soft Landing is more likely just how are you thinking about that sort of trajectory? Yeah, so um, I would say it this way: The overall resilience of the economy, The fact that that, um, we've been able to achieve disinflation so far without any meaningful, uh, negative impact on the labor market, the strength of the economy overall.

um, that's a good thing. It's good to see that, of course it's also you see consumers almost pushing the hive yesterday, which is the recent high of a while. But you're right though, at the margin, stronger growth could lead over time to higher inflation, and that would require an appropriate response. Remember, don't chase breakouts, so we'll be watching that carefully.

I Wouldn't be buying on a break of this like you're chasing to the tune of two and a half dollars. If you like it, wait for the break or pull back, then go for it. It is not worth it to change, Period. Soft CPI Jobs Reports: Uh, still strong, but moderating.

Uh, Jolts looks good. Uh, so if your data dependents, why not pause again? why not stay on hold? why not take another meeting off when the data wasn't cutting in the direction you want to see. So um, if you go back to, uh, what we're trying to do here, we're trying to achieve a stance of policy that's sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to two percent. At the last meeting, we wrote down our individual estimates of that would take of what that would take and the meeting of that was was uh, was an additional two rate hikes.

So I I would say we looked at the inter interim intermediate data and as I mentioned, broadly consistent. Not perfectly consistent, but broadly consistent with expectations. And as a result, we went ahead and took another step. And that's you know.

Apple Pie continues to be strong Microsoft gradually slowing. Um, than expected. But you know we're We're going to be careful about taking too much from a single video popping and uh, Netflix and stronger than expected. Meta: back above 300 going into their earnings tonight today Amazon Popping Nick Tamarose of the Wall Street Journal Chair Peril Markets uh, widely believe the media, everything is right now concentration forecast that is having a great recovery earnings after the market closes today Madison Shelter, Uh, by September that may warrant a downward Revision in the inflation forecast of 20 to 30 basis points.

Would that type of inflation progress be enough to hold rates steady from here? Or do you need to see below Trend Growth and decelerating labor income growth to be convinced that you've done enough? So it's hard to pick the pieces apart and say you know how much of this and how much of that, You know we will be looking at everything and you know we'll Of course, we'll be looking to see whether the signal from June CPI is replicated or or the opposite of replicated or whether it's somewhere in the middle. We'll be looking at the growth data. We'll be looking at the labor market data very closely of course and making an overall joke. This is why you just chase a breakout I Don't know how many times you have to warn people, if you were taking this breakout, you have no one to blame but yourself.

Don't chase breakout benefits to moderating the pace of increasing breakout. Monster will get information to make decisions. would another CPI report like the one we just had in June allow you to at least maintain that slower pace and defer until the fall any decision on whether you need that second rate hike. So I'm just going to tell you again what we're going to do in September We're going to look at two additional job reports, two additional CPI reports, lots of activity data, and that's what we're going to look at and we're going to make that decision then.

And that decision could could mean another hike in in September Or it could mean that we decide to maintain at that level and again. The question we're going to be asking ourselves is is the is the overall signal one that we need to do more that we need to tighten further And if we get that signal whenever we get it then and that's the collective Judgment of the committee then we'll We will move ahead if we don't, You know then then we'll have the option of maintaining policy at that level. But it's it's You know it's It's really dependent so much on the data and we just don't have it yet. Uh, Chris Ruger at Associated Press So uh, consumer confidence in the economy is rising.

Uh, likely in large part because of the declines in headline inflation. You also see wages are also Rising faster than prices now. uh after trailing them for a long time. How much are Americans truly uh, harmed by inflation at its current level headline level of three percent and with that in mind, pretty bad weight back on the employment.

What kind of questions? So I guess I'd say it this way. It is a good thing that headline inflation has come down so much because that's really what the public experience is. And and I I would say that having headline inflation moved down that much almost creates a it will strengthen the broad sense that that the public has that inflation is coming down which will in turn we hope help help inflation getting. Smack That resistance for now So I guess I would put it this way we we um I'd say it this way.

it's really a question of how do you balance the two risks, the risk of doing too much or doing too little And you know we I would say that um you know we're coming to a place where where there really are risks on both sides. It's hard to say exactly whether whether they're in balance or not. but as our as our stances become more restrictive we and inflation moderates we do increasingly face that risk. But um you know we we need to see that inflation is durably down that far.

You know, as you know we think and most economists think that core inflation is actually a better signal of where of of where headline inflation is going because Federal inflation is affected greatly by volatile uh, energy and food prices. So we would want core inflation to be coming down because that's what we think that's corn is signaling where headline's going to go in the future and core inflation is still pretty elevated. You know there's reason to think it can come down now, but it's It's still quite elevated and so we think we need to stay on task and we think we're going to need to hold. Certainly hold policy at a restricted levels for some time and we need to be prepared to raise further if that, if we think that's appropriate.

Well, and then if inflation were to just a quick follow. uh, if it stays at three or drops even a little bit more, I mean how much of an increase in unemployment do you think is acceptable to get that last 100 unemployment potential difficulty of the last Society Do you think is Justified to get down that less? So it is. It is, um, a very positive thing that not like in this case, same as it was when we left it off in March of 22 at 3.6 percent. So that's a real blessing and that we've been able to achieve some disinflation.

Um, and we don't seek to it. It's not that we're aiming to to raise unemployment, but I would just say the historical record. We have to be honest about the historical record, which does suggest that when central banks go in and slow the economy to bring down inflation, the result tends to be some softing in labor market conditions, And so that is still the the likely outcome here. Um, and you know we hope that that's as little as possible.

We have to be honest that that is that is the likely outcome. The worst outcome for everyone, of course, would be not to deal with inflation now, not get it done. Whatever. The short-term social costs of getting inflation under control, the longer term social costs of failing to do so are greater.

and that the historical record is very, very clear on that. If you go through a period where inflation expectations are not anchored, inflation is volatile, It interferes with people's lives and with economic activity. and you know that's the that's the thing we we really need to avoid and we'll avoid. The policy is restrictive, but all year long we have seen growth supplies.

to the upside, unemployment, to the downside and inflation lately to the downside. So I'm wondering, uh, by definition, should you be restrictive enough right now under these conditions? Do you think you might need to do more? Because I'm curious about what you see as inflation? Dynamics Now as the economy still moving in a direction where it creates more inflation, people ta