Thank you Thank you Foreign brother Good morning, Good morning, Good Morning! Los Angeles It is a beautiful Wednesday July 26th AKA Fomc results and daddy the Destroyer pal speaking day Smell that you smell that? that's the smell of a stock market battle in the morning. That is the smell of the Bulls and the Bears going at it and hopefully we are on the right side of the fight. It's gonna be crazy today. I Hope you had a good night's rest.

It feels like Christmas Eve except this particular Christmas Eve We get roughly eight times a year, so um, it's even better than Christmas honestly if you ask me, but man oh man, it's gonna be a wild one if you've been sleeping under a rock. if you don't follow monetary policy, if none of it really even matters to you I Just want you to know that at 2 Pm Eastern 2 2 P.m ET today we will be getting the results of the F O M C meeting. Which basically means we're gonna find out that the FED fund rate is going up by another 0.25 bringing us from 5 to 5.25 if you believe in the nature of math. And then at 2 30.

we're going to be hearing from Powell the Chairman of the Fed, the guy who kind of leads the cohort of the people who run the central bank. And if you've been paying attention to the roughly last 12 Fomc meetings, you know that there's craziness. To the upside. craziness.

To the downside. A lot of fake outs, A lot of whipsaw. A lot of this, a lot of that, a lot of the other thing. But basically it's going to be playing with our emotions more than our middle school sweetheart.

Am I invited to the party Am I not invited to the party Oh, you invited Nate but not me. even though last weekend when we were on the field trip, you said you would invite me when we said together on the bus back from the field trip and you said that I could come. but then at lunch you were giving out invites, then I never got the invite even though you said you would invite me. And then I heard that you were holding Justin's hand at the party.

So anyway, it's going to be one of those days. I Think we all understand exactly what I'm talking about. In fact, I know you all understand exactly what I'm talking about. so it's going to be be a good one.

Beyond that, there's a lot of other stuff going on. a lot of other stuff going on, such as major major earnings. Last night we heard from Google Alphabet We heard from Facebook Meta We heard from Snapchat Google's Up Microsoft's down I said meta medicine Thursday excuse me Google Microsoft and Snapchat Snapchat down Google up Microsoft out of Metas on Thursday Uh, early this morning we heard from Coca-Cola we heard from Boeing We heard from ATT yesterday the market was green. We broke above some Highs but this morning we're looking pretty weak so I want to dive into earnings? We also had some other side stories such as what's going on with Pac West We have some big movements there.

so the name of the game for the morning show really before the market goes dingy. Ding ding ding is to cover all the individual news for the companies that are giving us, updates, guidance, all that good stuff and then past that we need a prep up for the Fomc and I figured the best way to prep up is to look at what's happened over the past 12. Give you some facts and figures of do we commonly go green Do we commonly go red? What happens between 2 and 2? 30 What's been happening in the last four of these and then also what's happening commonly the next day. Do we commonly see Gap UPS Gap Downs If we have a red day, Do we have a green day? If we have a green day, Do we have a red day? If it's green, Is it green? If it's red? if it's red.

So basically what I'm trying to say is that if it is A if you're colorblind, you're just not going to have a good day because it's going to be a very color oriented type of a stream. So if you have red green color blindness, uh I I Just don't have the resources to make it accessible to all. So maybe if you just have a friend around you that like can be like yeah I know that one's actually green. You're not going crazy there.

Carl Um, maybe in the future I'll have the resources to put together to like make it so we can talk to you guys as well. But uh, if you have red green color blindness, this is probably not the show for you. so we have a lot to talk about. A lot of fun in the sun, But before we get to all of that, give a quick bit of love to today's stream sponsor.

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So I'll let you know more about this in a hot. SEC But once again, check it out Public.com Matt Cores earn a 5.5 yield on your money. Very low risk backed by the government. Stock futures slipped as investors digest big Tech earnings and await fed decision so we are still in the mean middle.

Whoa whoa there brother. What was that? Uh, we are still in the middle of earnings season I Want you to know that it does not stop this week. It will be continuing into next week. Last night after the market closed, we heard from Microsoft Alphabet Snapchat Visa and we also got an interesting update from Pacific Western Bank Pac W So we're going to be getting into all that and then we're going to talk about the ones that came out this morning.

And just so you know, after the market closes today, we're going to be hearing from Meta and then obviously, yeah, we have some exciting Ones Still for the remainder this week, so feel free to screenshot this or just go to at ewhispers on Twitter alphabet reports better than expected quarterly results driven by growth in Cloud So here's a little look you see at Google we'll go through all these as it's coming out, but Google currently up 6.3 AKA almost eight dollars closing at 122, opening at almost 1 30. Google crushed it. So across the board, the Google Bulls are very, very happy Cloud It's actually one of my favorite sub sectors. so in the future I'm more than happy to be a long-term investor in any of the leading companies related to cloud.

Microsoft shares dip after quarterly Revenue Guidance misses expectation. So Microsoft does this interesting thing where yes, the earnings report comes out pretty much right after the Bell goes dingy ding ding ding. but then in, the earnings call is when they actually give us their guidance. So even though Microsoft beat on its top and bottom line, its guidance was a little bit weak and the market did not like that whatsoever.

Microsoft Closing at 351 yesterday, currently trading just above 340 down 3 or almost 11. On top of that though, Microsoft is the lead when in the lead. excuse me with new cloud-based AI workloads so they're still going into the world of AI Obviously we know they have an equity ownership in Open AI They're trying to integrate it and just improve it. Improve it.

especially with their Bing search. So Microsoft even though it's taking a hit right now in the long term, this might be my absolute favorite or at least the top three stock like right now. If you broke into my studio and very aggressively put a gun to my head and said what is your favorite stock to invest in in the long term, Microsoft would be there I Don't know if it's exactly my number one, but in terms of a long-term hold I Like the sector it's in, it's business. fundamentals are strong.

Its balance sheet is an absolute Fort Knox I Like its leadership, it has a decent dividend. There's really not much to like say there's problems with. Microsoft It is one of my favorite long-term holds. It is my long-term account I just slowly but surely add to it.

So I just want you to know what's going on with Microsoft I Like it right now, taking a little bit of a hit, but Microsoft is one of those ones. I don't really actively trade. it's just when I see a sizable pull down, I just add a little bit more and then I forget about it and then when I come back to my long-term account in a couple months, it's typically even more green. So Microsoft in the very, very short term, taking a bit of a hit.

but honestly I don't think it'll be lasting too long. On the flip side of Google, we have Snapchat Google doing pretty well Microsoft honestly I think the Market's being a little bit unfair I Wouldn't be surprised if it bounces back. but Snapchat Getting its teeth kicked in. Snapshares plunged more than 17 on week forecasts.

So basically advertising not going the best for them close out the day at 12 50. currently trading at 10.50 so it's down 7 over 17, down over two dollars snap getting absolutely curb stomp I Don't think that's surprising to anyone I'm not generally seeing people in here saying oh, I love snap I'm going long on Snap time to buy snap time to buy a snap. honestly just doesn't really seem to be a thing that like happens like I don't think there's many hardcore Snapper um, like supporters. What's interesting Evan Spiegel The one of the co-founders the current CEO I believe he's going to be on CNBC this morning around 10 20.

So if you guys want to listen to them, it's kind of awkward that he's willing to do a like, um, I guess, uh, interview right now. kinda reflecting on the past quarter looking of what's coming up when it's just getting absolutely brutalized to this degree. But who knows, maybe he'll say the thing that ends up turning it around so just wanted to know that snap teeth absolutely kicked in. Surprise announcement from yesterday: Pacques Pac-w this was a popular ticker.

popular equity in the time when we're all like oh, our regional Banks collapsing. a lot of people assume Pac West was the very next one between that and Western Alliance after FRC uh kind of blew up and then obviously JP Morgan acquired them. but anyway, pack was to be sold to Bank of California in latest rescue deal. So why is this? Now we're erroring out.

Did they pull the video? I think I think they might have pulled the video hello Bloomberg You can't handle the truth. Well thanks a lot Bloomberg for ruining my show. Everyone in here came to just watch what's going on with Pac West and now they make it awkward for me. Sorry about that.

I Will be calling the Bloomberg Executives as soon as the morning show is over I Promise you the breaking news we got a little while ago: Confirmation: the Bank of California is set to buy Pac West Bancorp all uh stock deal here in that merger shares still halted here in after hours trading Bloomberg Finance Team leader Sally Bakewell Standing by with more Sally What do we know? Okay, so back in May Well hello including inviting in a potential investor. What is that accent Sally Who is this? I Need information. We went through this phase of selling assets, of selling real estate loans and then it has kind of culminated today in the fact that it's merging with Bank of California which is technically the legal acquirer and they say they're going to create a premier California business bank. and this is a pretty complex deal by the sounds of things.

Yeah, um, it involves Warburg Pincus and Center Bridge Parker Center Bridge Partners who are putting in 400 million of new Equity sell assets to repay about 13 billion of borrowings. Um, but it's a very sort of interesting deal that perhaps came out a little bit of left field in particular because Bank of California smaller about a quarter of the size of Pack West Yeah, of course that's been all the talk here Sally Bakewell our finance team leader there and we should point out of course, the reverberations the Ripple effects if you will coming out of that. Regional Bank Crisis original Bank Crisis back in March that a lot of people quite frankly blame on the Fed and that rate tightening cycle. a rate tightening cycle that some folks in markets right now expect to come to an end pretty soon.

All right. So like they said, a little bit of a surprise on Pac West let's bring up that ticker I believe it's still halted? Nope. currently trading so Pack West dove into close. but I mean actually kind of a sizable like he got the volatility picked up on the announcement exploded giving back a little bit right now as Sally referred to very complex deal.

so I think people are trying to figure out positive negative that type of a thing. But anyway, Pacwest being sold with me I'm probably gonna avoid it. It just seems like a high volatility high octane thing where I don't really feel like I have much of an edge, but definitely going to be paying attention to it because I think it could be a solid learning opportunity. Now let's switch it up to this morning: Coca-Cola raises full year outlook as earnings beat estimates so you know who's happy right now it's KO right Warren Buffett he likes this and I'm not not like even though it popped is giving it back now Coca-Cola I was reading some stat of how many thousands of dollars Warren Buffett makes a minute on his Coca-Cola dividends.

If you were to like split it up per quarter it's just he makes millions and millions and millions a year just on dividends from Coca-Cola So right here, uh, giving a little bit more of burn in terms of a consumer defensive play. the fact that coke which once again going the way of Pepsi pretty decent numbers right here. It's kind of re-echoing what we heard about consumer confidence yesterday. If people are still spending money and we have these companies, these consumer defensive companies who are saying yeah, no, we're actually still feeling pretty good.

Uh, it's giving it back a little bit right now. this isn't the most high-flying stock, but I mean to me. Still pretty positive news. You know that was was pretty positive.

Bowing: Boeing's quarterly results top expectations as airplane deliveries pick up pace across not only the Upstream products but Airlines themselves. Things have been going pretty well. so we'll bring a Boeing here. Boeing Closing out at 214 currently trading at 222 up almost four percent on the day.

Here's the results from this morning: just pop a little bit of a shake out but ripping once again. So Boeing on The Daily Looking pretty solid actually right at the top of a breakout region. Boeing might be Off to the Races here. Huge huge consolidation.

Huge consolidation and now we're at the top of it. If this breaks and goes, that might be setting up. If it can really get over 231 I'd then be watching 240 followed by like above 250 but been essentially consolidating all year. All calendar year Bone's gone a little up, a little down, a little up, a little down, a little up.

a little down. but this might be the Catalyst to really keep it going. So definitely a worthwhile spot on your watch list. ATT tops free cash flow estimates on Cost Cuts subscriber editions so recently we know Verizon actually had pretty good earnings.

apparently gapped up but gave it back. so now let's look at a t right now. not really changed too much. Uh, kind of going the way Verizon where at first the reaction is positive, giving back a little bit of it now I Don't think too many of us in here are really mobile company Traders I Don't think most of us are trading Verizon or ATT There's just better things to kind of I don't know better Capital Efficiency options out there.

So that's pretty much the skinny on the situation of what's going on in terms of the overall earnings situation as of now. Please remember after the market closes today, we will be hearing from Meta tomorrow. We have McDonald's we have Southwest and then on Friday we have Exxon we have I believe Chevron So some oil plays, which is worthwhile to note just because oil's been ripping so much lately since the end of June Until now, oil has taken one little two-day break. but beyond that, it just keeps going and going and going.

So on top of all that, as I alluded to before, we have a lot of macro economic reports today, so throughout the week we had PMI coming in a little bit short, consumer confidence coming in a little bit long. Uh, we have building permits coming in just just above expectations. At 10 30, we're going to get crude oil inventory, so this could potentially have an impact on just how people are really paying attention to inflation. in fact, so that's out 10 30.

But really, the party today starts at 2 p.m That's when we get the results of the Fomc decision and then at 2 30. a half hour later, that's when the chairman of the FED Jerome pal will be speaking and I want to get into some just facts and figures of how the recent 12 Fomc days have actually ended up playing out. But just so you know, the party doesn't stop today. Tomorrow we're going to be getting the GDP report an hour before the Market opens.

so tomorrow's stream will start early and then on Friday we're going to get the inflation report the Pce report once again in hour before the Market opens. So for Thursday and Friday to conclude this week, we will be starting the stream early. Now let's talk about what to expect for today. the FED set to raise rates to 22 year high and decide if it's done hiking.

So basically when we were all locked up in our apartments and our houses and the government said we weren't allowed to do anything to keep the economy going, the FED embarked on an unprecedented quantitative easing I guess ordeal. Just I Mean they ballooned our. The money that they put into the economy ballooned to almost 8.9 trillion dollars. Obviously when you jack up that much Supply Like when you're just printing money like a drunken sailor.

What does that prompt? It prompts inflation. In fact, in June of last year, our inflation rating came in at a scorching 9.1 percent. Now, obviously our Target's two percent. That's the amount we should be at.

Well, obviously when you're more than 4X that that's not a good thing. And obviously you can see the craziness that it. Cons: Like causes such as like bonds going absolutely nuts yields going nuts, you have Banks blowing up this. That's the other thing.

A lot of stuff that just simply doesn't make sense. And obviously when the FED when one of their one of their main duties is price stability, Well, they kind of single-handedly didn't help that at all. Lots of volatility in fact produced from. So anyway, the car got a little in front of the horse, the economy running a little bit too hot.

So they go from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening. Which is basically instead of like buying buying buying, they're now starting to sell. They're starting to jack up the FED fund rate. They're trying to put downward pressure on the economy to cool off the rocket engines.

That's what's been going on. We're just like running a little too hot. and by that I actually mean a lot too hot. But we are now down into the three percent range so we're still not at where we want.

But over the past year over the past 12 months we have been trending at least in the right direction. So we're not where we want to be in terms of magnitude. But in terms of are we taking the proper Progressive steps, you could argue Yes. In fact, we've been stepping so much in the right direction, it's getting to the point.

and the very fair question of will the rate hike today? Which there's about a 99 chance that we do get a 25 bits right? Like will the rate hike today be the final one in this particular rate hike cycle? That's a very fair question. A lot of people are saying yeah just because we have made been making proper strides in terms of our battle against inflation. So this whole concept of will they be able to pull off a soft Landing Won't they be able to pull off a soft Landing There's a decent argument that yeah, maybe they will. So today we know with about a 98 99 accuracy that there will be another 25 bips rate hike.

The thing that's really going to influence the market the next leg of the market. Do we continue rocketing higher? Or are we gonna take some form of a hit? Is all going to come down to what does Jerome Powell say? He Is he going to be telegraphing that no, this isn't just a skip. This might be a legitimate pause. Those are really.

It's the the argument of the word skip versus pause for the next meeting. The next Fomc meeting which is in September Are we going to be skipping? Or are we actually going to pause from here on out? That's what everyone's going to be trying to understand and when reporters ask their questions, that's what they're going to be hinting at like just hey, give us the answer to that So that's the major thing. Yes, we know at 2 Pm there's going to be Market volatility and from two to three, we're going to have One Direction movement and the odds tell us that by 2 30, we're probably going to reverse that and I'm going to be getting into those, but that's kind of the qualitative scene of what we should be paying attention to. We've been on a year and a half journey of right hiking up these interest rates.

Now the question is, are we at the proper Peak And on top of that I mean you could see the estimations right here of just everyone's expecting 25. I mean like literally every major Bank saying 25 25 And you can see that also in more of an odds thing, let me bring this up: I believe it's 99 right now. Yes, 98.9 And then there's a 1.1 percent chance I Don't even think you guys can see in my big heads covering it a 1.1 chance that they actually hit us with 50 bips, which probably is not going to happen. So at this point, my base case is that we're skipping in September depending on how the inflation reports come in, depending on how retail sales come in, depending on how consumer sentiment comes in CPI PC All that we might get another one in November But I think this was actually a pretty decent chance.

Decent chance that this might be it. This after today's rate hike, this might be the peak of the FED fund rate for this particular cycle. Obviously, there's things that could change my thesis on this, but as of now, based on the current information based on the current trends, seems like we might be solid. Now with that being said, that doesn't mean it's time to be like just an unbounded Bull And it's like we're gonna rock it because in fact, after the FED hikes up the rates and then we pause for a bit, the moment that we actually start to cut historically.

As in every single time this has happened, the market actually starts to take a pretty sizable hit. In fact, from the moment of the First Rate cut all the way down the median and the average Market sell-off until like the Cycles over so like around in the realm of 30 to 40 percent. So it's not just a little self, it's a considerable sell-off. so this is going to be something we have to cover in more depth in the future.

But rate Cuts like when the FED starts to do that in terms of like monetary policy decisions is not a time that you should be thinking oh, I'm gonna buy everything I can possibly buy at least based on how history has played out in the U.S Monetary policy pal has stopped handing gifts to Wall Street on Fed days. key was to buy stock sponge. just before Powell began to speak Market moves has faded as Feds tightening cycle nears and end. So I saw this article and I decided last night to not sleep and to spend a lot of time breaking down how all the other previous days have played out on the Fomc day.

So the first thing I want to start off is what really Bloomberg is trying to tell to you So between March of 22 and February of 23 of this year, this has been the reaction. Uh, on average from 2 to 2 30 there's been a drop of 0.4 percent and then from 2 30 to 330 there's been a gain of 0.7 That's how it things played out from March of 22 to February of 23. but then in March of 23 to June of 23 as in the past three, March May and June we've actually had a drop of 0.1 and then from 230 to 3 30. we've had an additional drop of 0.2 So this is how they wanted to I guess present some of the odds, facts and figures.

but I wanted to get a little bit deeper for you here. So if we and instead of going from uh I guess March to June in the recent one I kind of split up per year. But I get why they did this just because really March of 23 is when they decided to like Okay, like there was a clear difference in the tone and what the Federal Reserve was doing. So I get why Bloomberg split it this way.

but I just want to give you some facts and figures here. So first of all, the most glaring thing that we can see here is in fact that from two to two thirty from the moment that the decision is announced, up until when Jerome starts speaking, there is a statistical Edge to be bearish Now should you be bearish every single time. Not exactly because this is just how it averages out. So out of the last 12 that I recorded one, two, three, four, so one third of them were actually bullish.

Two two-thirds of them were bearish. So with a 66 percent accuracy. yeah, there is an edge like the average medium movement is negative, but that's happened two-thirds of the time. So I don't want you to look at this and be like oh, the average movement's negative.

So that means I should be negative. Well, you could. you do have an edge there, but there's also a one-third chance. but just based on the past 12 that no, it actually could go up.

So I just wanted to let you know that. I Also want to let you know that in terms of today, the Fomc day being green or red if there's a particular Edge out of the past 12, six had been read. six have been green. so six have been bullish, six have been bearish.

and I'm talking from today's opening value to today's closing value. So should we have a I guess a hardcore feeling of being bullish or bearish today. Not really, that's not where the good odds are at. 50 have been green days 50 have been red days from opening to close.

so I was like, all right, well that's not too helpful. We know that there's a slight Edge to be bearish when the market at 2 pm. From the result to Jerome speaking for that half hour slight Edge But overall, in the day, there's really no Edge to be bullish or bearish So I figured you guys are like, no, we want more Matt you got to tell us more, You got to give us more So fear not I dove into that information for you once again. out of the past 12 Fomc days, nine out of 12 whatever the movement was from 2 to 2 30 has been reversed from 2 30 to the remainder of the day.

So basically that whole concept of the first moves typically the wrong one that has happened on nine out of 12.. And then there was a couple of things that I Like wanted to see in terms of like does it Gap up the next day or not So half of them have gapped up. In terms of just in that, like if today's a green day, okay, do we get a gap? So gaps happen about 50 of the time. So tomorrow itself could also be crazy.

Uh, the one thing that I really actually wanted to see here and I think this is the most interesting and maybe something we could actually trade off of is If today is green or red and I don't care if it's green or red, just whatever today is from open and close. Do we have a bullish day? Do we have a bearish day? Nine out of the past 12 have been a continuation. so if today's a green day, there's probably a better odds. and in fact there's a 75 chance based on the past 12 of if we get that continuation tomorrow.

So today Green Day I'd feel good about tomorrow being a green day. if today is a red day, I'd feel pretty good about tomorrow being a red day. So what I'm looking for from a statistical standpoint I don't really care about red or green? What I'm looking for on an intraday basis is that move from 2 to 2 30 getting reversed and that's proven true many, many times. And then also in terms of what is today? overall, I'm looking for that to be repeated tomorrow.

not necessarily A magnitude or size, but just in fact, if we have a bullish day today, I'm expecting a bullish day tomorrow. If we have a bearish day today, I'm expecting a bearish day tomorrow I Hope that makes sense. Obviously if there's any questions, comments, concerns: I like I have all the odds and like none of this is guaranteed it's a game of Oz I mean you could have a 99 chance of winning something and so that one percent chance can hit. but I believe if you take High odd scenario time and time again, you will end up being profitable.

It's just the law of large numbers. Now very quickly before the Bell goes. Dignity Ding ding ding I Want you to know that from a seasonal standpoint today is neutral. We're not really running into headwinds.

We're not being supported by Tailwinds pretty much a neutral day. Uh, five things to know before the Stock Market opens today Wednesday July 26th AKA Fomc day AKA Fed day uh Cloud Biz lifts alphabet so Google up very nicely Microsoft down UPS Teamsters will reach the deal. Definitely helping push the market up yesterday. We don't want that to go on strike UPS Going down if they go on strike.

that could have a multi-billion dollar impact on the economy Microsoft Outlook disappoints People will not really too happy really in the last four quarters with Microsoft's earning. but hopefully that will end soon. Coke Earnings beat. Obviously Buffett is very happy.

so there are some other things I Want to get into a little bit later, but on that note, dignity ding ding ding The casino is open. Best of luck to all. Play responsibly if not have fun while we're waiting for the market to get open today. I'm really not going to be doing anything for the first half hour I Just want you know that the opening belt is brought to you by today's stream Sponsor Public I invite you to earn 5.5 Now Obviously we've been talking about the craziness of the market and if you feel like yeah, it's run a lot and there's a good chance that we're going to have some form of a pullback soon and you don't want to be involved in it, Well, good news for you.

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Once again pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. And on that note, pop at open and now we're already coming down. Well, that first minute was a bit exciting and now things are getting a little bit hit. I'm not really trying to make any crazy decisions once again.

I Think it's smartest to wait those first 5 10 15 minutes. and really, even today we know that there's some stuff coming out around 10 a.m So or is it 10 30 with the crude oil report. In terms of the Spy if you're checking this out today, oops, Uh, what I'm looking for is for the Spy to push 455 and hold that, potentially setting up another test of 456.75 On the flip side, if we're bearish today, if we go below 454 and then I might be watching the lower 452s as of now. Obviously, we had a great day yesterday, but it gave quite a bit of it back I'm very, very happy I Got out of my SPX calls before the market closed, but we'll see how things go today.

Please remember on today is not a normal trading Today today is a high volatility High whips all day. There are many, many Traders and investors I respect that refuse to do anything until Jerome Powell starts speaking today. Today is a very unique day where you should not be feeling that pressure to really do anything right out of the gate because things are going to get wild this afternoon. Just so you guys know, I will be streaming that.

We're going to start streaming again around 145 1 50 p.m ET today. so it was specialty stream today I Hope to see you there once again just before 2PM ET That's when we're going to be meeting again because we want to capture the Fomc results and then obviously Jerome Powell's speaking at 2 30. so we're not. We're going to do an expanded Power Hour instead of Power Hour.

We're going to do even longer than that today. I Just want everyone to know we will be back at 145 1 50 p.m ET Today after the mornings show, man the queues are getting hit. Uh, the cues actually already below already below yesterday's low? That's bearish for sure. Uh, here we are below.

I mean the longer the cues? Hang Out Below 377 Uh, this might be a little bit of a fake out, a little bit of a fake out team. and if it keeps going, obviously my test would be around 375. maybe 374, but definitely watching that. Maybe it's time to load back up on those Ndx puts here.

I'll put this on the bottom of the screen the bottom of the screen right now. but as you can see, that's my Weibo account on the very bottom. kind of like right over right over there. like right where I'm pointing right there.

Uh, I'm in no positions right now I had SPX Well, yesterday I had Ndx puts and metaputs. The market turns started to look strong so I cut those and then I decided it looked strong enough that I wanted some SPX calls, especially because I saw how good the energy in the financial sector were doing. So I ended up switching to SPX and I cut those before the end of the day anticipating today just to be a weird day. Yeah, it could have gapped up and I could have made more money.

or today it could have done exactly what it did do. and it was. it was. Ended up being a gap down and I could have lost money.

So I just didn't feel like taking on the risk, especially because I've been a little bit undisciplined in my trading lately so just trying to bring myself a little bit back to where I should be. But overall, clearly the queue's showing a bit of weakness. I mean Microsoft right now it's down 3.5 percent when the second largest stock in the U.S economy is down 3.5 Yeah, that's going to be causing some pain. Uh Google Obviously it's out there.

it's a top five I think it's either the number three or four company that's up, so you think maybe they would counteract, but the cues as of right now are down half a percent. also known as 1.9 The Spy recently within the past week outperforming the queue and that's just because of strength that we're seeing in the energy sector which is once again continuing to go. oil is currently trading at 79 a barrel oil I think will keep going up I'm actually really excited to hear it from Exxon and Chevron this. Friday Speaking of energy companies, you should know that Warren Buffett my buddy the Oracle of Omaha has continually been adding to his oxy position I myself am in this in my long term account my average is around 68 so I'm a little bit underwater I got into it of Summer of last year I am in Oxy bullish on it and especially because Warren when he I mean he owns now over 20 of the company our boy Warren owns over 20 percent of oxy.

He's been spending billions and billions and billions of dollars on it. So with that being said, I don't think he gets plays of this size really that wrong I still feel like he knows something that maybe we don't know. So I just want to throw that out there that I'm in it I'm excited to see how it plays out from a technical standpoint. Had a nice trendline break recently.

Great entry around 59 60 and it's been going up ever since then, a little bit more slower moving. It's not as like high-flying as some of these Tech plays, but still enjoyable at least to me to pay attention to. So uh, oil companies starting to report this Friday and paid Oil itself has just been ripping from 67, almost up to 80. I think its next major resistance is in the low 80s like 81-82 So that's what I'm watching for in the world of crude and we're going to be getting a better indication of that today at 10 30.

So in about just under an hour when we get some inventory reports is Microsoft Microsoft's looking really weak. Snap down 19. Oh wow, oh brother, uh, where's Tesla at Tesla Everything taking a little bit of a hit this morning. little bit of a hit even Nvidia semiconductors were strong yesterday Netflix Jeez Meta 296.

hang on, let's look at some of these daily charts. So the cues. Um, Honestly, kind of an interesting breakdown opportunity. Let me get rid of this alert.

We don't need that going off randomly. We do not need that going off randomly. So we have the cues doing their thing today. the Spy So the tech sector definitely looking weaker.

Energy sector nice recovery. Financial sector actually looking very, very strong. Let's look at Apple Uh, two as of now, two inside days in a row so you could just see this. consolidation apples can like.

When you have this much potential energy getting compressed, the next move is going to be a large one I Wish I could tell you which direction it's going to be in I'm just saying. either wait for your breakout or your breakdown. probably producing a pretty nice move. Microsoft Getting crushed.

Coming right to the trend line, it kind of needs to bounce here. I've been watching this trend line ever since mid-march bounce. Huge bounce bounce, Huge bounce. Are we gonna do it for the third time? or is this the time it actually craters and then my next Target would be 327.

Google Huge gap up. uh, giving some of it back, trading right at its high from early. June Let's see how it ends up holding. Obviously there would be a downside.

Gap They'll play two. Yesterday's high of 123.15 if you think it's ending a week Tesla Mid-range not really doing too too much right now Amazon Amazon being weak, but right at Support Watch 126 on Amazon Uh Nvidia it's I like every time I see this and I just say okay, it's time for it to come down. It just never does. So I'll be watching this.

Maybe if it gets back above 460, playing it up to 480 is potential, but this thing it just no bears allowed in Nvidia Apparently apparently that's a rule that there's like no red days allowed AMD looking a bit weaker coming up to the support. so I'd watch 109 108. um, we do have a lower high, so sometimes these trend lines are broken. That would be an interesting opportunity to go along.

I'd be interested in watching this. In fact, I should probably just set an alert on Nvidia because on this upward breakout. Uh, I would definitely actually be interested in going long and risking the recent low Netflix Showing some weakness because ever since its earnings, it really hasn't recovered that much. If it breaks 421, I would then be watching around 4 10 ish this low from late.

June Meta reports after the market closes today, attempted to Gap up. well, it did Gap up today and already got the downside. Gap feel but ever since it broke this trend line it it's it's that. it's in that danger zone.

If Menace starts to come back down and breaks 290, there might be a little bit. I mean there is a deep, deep downside. Gap Though uh with Meta: I Think the major thing that could be influencing the earnings coming out after the market closes today is what they do or don't say about threads. Uh, is threads just a flash in a pan that was a hot topic for a week? Or are they actually seeing like kind of some sticky subscribers? as in, are they sticking around and actually using the platform? What else do we have? Spy? We know that Q's definitely shown a little bit of weakness.

All right. Well, the cues broke below yesterday's low and just came up and retested it. Decision time, snap, Getting murked. Meta: Microsoft How's AMC doing today? AMC Surprisingly Green.

That's a rare thing to see. Gme is also green has energy doing energy. Did pop coming down a little bit. Same with financials utilities.

Healthcare uh Industrials Technology Maybe things are spinning a little bit right here. Time to tell. time to tell I have no position I'm not really doing anything at this moment. I'm expecting a lot of whipsaw.

I might take like one little scalp trade, but I would prefer to be out of that scalp trade before 2 p.m Uh, my plan as of right now is to go into the Fomc results completely flat and in all reality kind of not do anything until Jerome Powell starts speaking to see if the market is creating some sort of tradable trend That might not. It might be just two whips off a day and we might just end up sitting on our hands and that's completely completely fine. Take it from a guy who ran his account up a lot and then gave a lot of those profit backs recently. it is completely okay if you are not seeing a perfect setup a 4 out of 5 star or five out of 5.

Star It is completely okay to just sit there and wait for that opportunity to come to you. Your account will grow much faster with less emotional. Capital If you are trading less waiting for high quality setups opposed to like, it's quality over quantity. Quality over quantity is almost always, always, always gonna win out.

In the world of trading, you don't need a force. trades wait for your setup to come to you. If you have a particular trading style that like you're a fan of, just wait for it. You don't have to be training some other style if you found something that works for you, wait for that environment to produce itself.

Um, where are we at? Hey folks, if you haven't already destroy the like button. It helps me out a lot with the YouTube algorithm. It helps me out a lot with the rumble leaderboard. so if you're watching right now, it is completely free and it gets this video in front of other people.

So do not forget to smash the like button. Let's run it up. Let's set some goals. Uh, where we at on YouTube 265 Let's run it up to 500.

you guys can do it I Have faith in you I have faith in the adults watching this show right now to move their Mouse over to the like button and tap it and then when you're done tapping it, absolutely destroy it. and then when you're done destroying it, bring it back from death and then just kill it again. I Think you guys can do it I think you could easily easily easily do it can I Review Clove Um, it's a life health insurance place so not my forte by any means. It's been strong, pulled back if it starts to push again.

It could be interesting, but it's a shitty penny stock I Don't like trading shitty penny stocks I mean all the this thing all it's done pumped up Pump Dump pump dump. so I'd be hesitant. like maybe it would be a day trade or a quick swing trade if I think it has momentum. this is nothing I would invest in.

it's not in the sector I like training and I also just hate trading penny stocks. Um I find that you don't have it most penny stock Traders Most Traders 90 of Traders end up losing money 95 99 of penny stock Traders probably end up losing money I Just don't think there's a good Edge for retail traders in the world of penny stock trading I Know some people make millions off of it, but as I'm speaking to a large group, this overall it comes down to a question of capital efficiency. You might like clove, but the question is, are there better opportunities in the market right now? And based on the volatility of tech and the overall Market Fomc, there's just too many good other things going on that I wouldn't waste my time with this at all. So I'm not bullish or bearish on it in the long term.

I'd be bearish on this company I Just don't think it's going to survive because it's a shitty penny stock on the NASDAQ Um, but in the short term I Just think there's more interesting things going on. Our Radar Radar Radar Radar right. Our right. All right.

All right, Our right, Our right. All right. Let's check some of the internals. The internals.

The internals. The internals. Is that internals? All right. All right, All right, All right, All right, All right, All right.

All right. All right. All right. All right.

All right. Uh. hang on. Hot sec.

Hold on a hot sec. Mm-hmm Why is this not working for me? Working for me? Working for me. Why is this not working for me today? Uh, what time is it? It's 9 46 so we are 15 minutes into the day. All right.

I Did just make a position a little bit of a little bit of a scalp I'm wondering if the cues are going to come back below the low from yesterday that 377 level. um I played it in Ndx put for today a little bit of a scout play I Once again, have absolutely no plans whatsoever. Zero plans. zilch.

Nada to um be holding this until 2PM like I just want to see if there's going to be a little bit of a flush here. um I I saw this puke I saw it come back kind of watching this I'm wondering if the cues are going to get rejected. These this on the screen right now is just EMAs it's just EMA's I think eight up to the 40. so I see that we're under it.

a little bit of a pop back I don't want to chase these breakdowns I want to wait for the reversion and I wanted to wait for some weakness and the weakness I saw here was that it got all like ended up pushing 377. now obviously a little bit of a risk because maybe there's just buyers at 377 and then ended up pushing to the upside that's obviously 100 possible. but I figure I don't have to take out much risk I could risk 377.60 I could just risk the intraday High regardless of how I play it I just don't have much risk. Once again, this is a quick little day trade.

A quick little scalp trade. Honestly, if we ended up pushing uh, 376.43 if we just push the internet day low I'd probably take my profits right there and just move on with my life. This isn't meant to be some sort of big swing play or anything like that. So just watching, uh, obviously my mental bias and maybe it's good to have this mental bias.

Maybe it's bad I know Tech's Under Pressure right now Microsoft Obviously the market not happy with that snap getting destroyed. people might be telegraphing this forward that meta so like I just think Tech's under a little bit of pressure. Uh, and from a price action standpoint. My major reasoning for that is that we punctured yesterday's low.

So right here if you look from Wednesday all the way up until Monday So I'm talking July 19th up until the 24th. lower highs, lower lows. Now there was an interesting potential reversal happened yesterday because we got a higher high and a higher low. I'm like, oh okay, maybe the Bulls are back on, but then because of some of the weak earnings and I just say some because Google's was actually pretty good.

but Microsoft's the market not reacting well to it I See that we punctured this low. So now now we're back to the scenario of a lower high and a lower low. Now, obviously today is not over. Obviously we could reverse and get some sort of bullish engulfing candle.

Totally possible, but I'm just talking about based on the current information right now all I'm seeing is okay. We sold off and now on. kind of a little bit of a larger time frame this up here compared to this, if we're just defining a high as in a candle and on both sides of it lower highs and lower lows. So we see some sort of peak.

here, we see some sort of peak here. Well, that's a lower Peak So now we have on a larger time frame intermediate highs, the second one's getting lower. So okay, it might this might be the start of some form of like legitimate turn. but I don't know and that's why I'm just keeping my risk somewhat close.

um, unfortunately I got in and since then it's been going sideways but just kind of looking I don't know at I love trading off of breaking out of highs and breaking down from lows of previous days and what I look for is like okay, if we get the breakdown and break out, look for a little bit of a reversion so I can optimize my risk reward and then I'm looking for that Medium to longer term Trend to be continuing. So I want to trade with what I identify as as a larger time frame Trend but in the short time frame I'm looking for a bit of a reversal. So right here I saw a bit of a reversal at this part even though we sold below yesterday's low now. will it work? I I Have no idea.

The accuracy is probably in the realm of 50 plus or minus 10. Um, just something to do something to keep me on my game today. Do I trade any Canadian TSX sucks I Do not. Matt did you close your QQ code put for Friday Yeah I closed that yesterday to switch into SPX Longs but I might recreate it today.

Um, we'll see how it's going. that was a a little bit Chasey like not the mo like I try to review it and I think that one I think it was a good trade I think it was just too big for uh, my size like I actually don't dislike the trade I think I was following the price action pretty well but I posted that with locals when I said uh I cut medic because the cues are too strong so I got out of those and I then posted that I went to SPX calls um just because you could always re-enter like I don't need to hold through the pain All right Microsoft going a little bit flat snap. definitely showing some weakness Tesla actually making a nice bounce off at 262 up to 266. Apple Looking a bit weak.

Apple apple apple apple. If Apple goes, it's going to be tough to see the cues hold. obviously a Microsoft watch this Microsoft Currently down three percent. Uh, at 340 right now.

but at one point this morning it did vomit to 337. Uh, the cues and Microsoft's graph looking almost exactly the same this morning was looking exactly the same this morning. Uh, someone just said that's a bear trap based on what it might be. But I'm curious.

Your reasoning: I Feel like a lot of people when it comes to trading. They just like throw out their own random thing. Basically, they speak their own bias. Like you just said, that's a bear trap.

Probably because you have a bullish position. but what's your actual reasoning? Give me some facts and figures to like back up what you're saying. Uh Matt do you still talk to Trey I Don't know why this is such like a fascinating question to people, but I've already answered this like now 50 times over the past week. No.

I don't like him at all. I think he's a bit of a scummy person and I haven't spoken to him in probably like over a year, maybe even longer. sorry late for class. What are your thoughts on the Goldman Sachs price increase for AMC didn't even know Goldman Sachs had a price increase for AMC So to clarify based off of your 9 for 12 reversion play when Pal speaks and the 9 for 12 continuation of the next.

regardless if it's Greener red based on the clothes, um, hang on, let me make sure I'm good. So uh, out of the last 12, six of the Fomc days have been green and six of them have been read. Six out of 12 of them have produced a gap the next day. Uh, nine out of 12 have been a continuation.

So basically, if it's a red day or a green day, you can expect the same day the next day. or at least with 75 accuracy based on the last 12. And then I did have A and then 10 out of 12. 10 out of 12 have been the intraday uh reversals from 2 to 2, 30 and then 230 to the remainder of the day.

But as Bloomberg pointed out, that particular Trend was really strong last year and it seems to be weakening this year. Um, let me write that down. Let me write that down. Let me write that down.

Okay, is Microsoft gonna so right here. the Spy bouncing perfectly off of this trend line. So just watch that watch. If this trend line fails, we might have a bit of an overall failure.

Obviously, it could be a good continuation. I Don't know. I'm not necessarily bullish or bearish on them just saying. Watch this area, watch the high 454s on the Spy.

Um, and I'm particularly paying attention to Microsoft right now because if this gives up 339, I think we're retesting 337. Apple Maybe worthwhile to watch this trend line. Maybe a bit of a breakout. So watching Apple Tesla showing actually some really nice strength today Nvidia Potentially turning back around a little bit uh, hard selling the first couple minutes.

Uh, be prepared today. Bit of a choppy day. Bit of a messy day. Oh, where are we going I Never asked you guys, where are you bullish or bearish on the day you guys bullish or bearish? Bullish or bearish? Do you think today? It's kind of interesting because we're clearly not in the same.

just like overall monetary mindset that we've been for. I don't know a lot of the recent ones, we all knew okay. rate hike. This is what Powell is going to do.

But now it's getting a little bit on edge because now the question is like, are we going to be done with this uh, bullish flat, bearable, bearish bear red. uh AMC arthritis hands flat, both bare today bear I Think the market will move? Look out, there's Mr feckles engulfing cup handle bull Bear Flag Incoming. oh no, not one of those. Not one of those hawkish all-in-one Doge Chop-ish Definitely choppy.

I think that's just like a base case. uh, bearish on cues Tech is a bubble so that's tough though for an intraday call out. I mean it might be a bubble, but who knows. maybe Powell is the one to pop said Bubble today Totally possible.

Uh, but also uh oh, spy showing some weakness uh oh SpaghettiOs uh oh SpaghettiOs oh SpaghettiOs if the cues come back below 377 I think the Bears will have a push if the Spy goes below 450 450 I think the Bears could have a bit of a push I Do want to point out that internals are actually still favoring the Bulls Let me check a couple more internals. Uh, definitely neutral leaning bullish. Let me check out one more thing that I have or I have various internal things I like to measure Bears Okay, so in terms of internals, we're getting some mixed bag mixed bag report. so maybe um, they're not all leaning bullish.

they're definitely not all leaning bearish. so neutral bullish on some neutral bearish on some others. Uh so I would wait to see if this is a real breakdown or not on the Spy. it could be a fake out breakdown I think confirmation would come either bouncing off of or going below 450 450 on the spy and then on the cues.

The level of interest is yesterday's low at 377. Tesla's showing some strength Nvidia tried to pop up um Microsoft Microsoft building Tesla Apple Apple showing weakness though now Nvidia is showing a bit of weakness. Um, basically we had a hard sell-off from Market open for the first 10 minutes and now we've been recovering over the past 20-ish minutes. Who's gonna win? Who's going to win? I Think a lot of you are kind of spot on with your call out for the day of it being like just a choppy, messy day.

I mean I would love for a nice Trend uh to produce itself like I mean I Think it's way easier to trade on those types of days, but we'll see. We'll see. We'll see, we'll see. Ooh Apple Catching a bid right now attempting I don't know its third attempt I mean a shelf of buyers at 193.50 the Spy looking a little weak though, as the cues are over performing, energies weak, and financials are weak.

Something that we haven't been saying in about two weeks. Um, or when I say week I mean relative to the past 20 minutes on the daily chart still looking pretty strong I'm just talking about why the cues seem to be recovering a bit stronger relative to the Spy All right, All right, all right, got calls. Oil report at 10 30. uh yes, there is an oil report in 30 minutes right here this week this week.

Uh, crude oil inventories? uh, coming out at 10 30 a.m So in about half an hour, how do I want to handle this? a spy? The Spy is getting drugged down right now. energy starting to come down, financials are starting to come down, utilities coming down Healthcare did come down trying to pop a little bit so really it's I don't know. we're kind of switching up Trend right now. but uh, what's keeping the Spy up is actually the tech sector.

So if you see Microsoft go Apple actually a breakout. so it's Tech that's actually on a relative basis just from like 9 40 until now. over the past 20 minutes, what's been keeping things up it is Tech Um, so let's see if this actually holds or not interesting. Today is always funky days.

Definitely funky funky days. Look at this grind up we've been getting. uh oh Microsoft Danger Zone over here Danger Zone on Microsoft here. let me bring it up here so you can see the exact let me kill this apple uh Microsoft flirting flirting with a breakdown.

and then I guess at this point yeah, the spies trying to make up its mind. Is it a breakdown? Are we breaking out on this? So all we can really say today is a bit of a choppy mess. Bearish. at first bullish.

Recently, depending on what you're watching, the cues have been bearish, followed by bullish. the Spy kind of more neutral than anything else. Honestly, people might just be waiting for the crude inventories report in just under half an hour to decide the next thing. Energy and Financial started off strong, giving a little bit of it back, which is why the Spy is not doing the hottest right now.

Utilities are looking weak and Healthcare is looking a little weak as well. Calm, cool, Collected. Trade your plan, Trade your plan. Don't chase breakouts.

Don't chase breakdowns. It is just not worth it. Chasing breakdowns. Chasing breakouts.

It's gonna work every once in a while, but we've just been seeing way way way way way too many fake outs that it's just not worth it. Jim Cramer 17 minutes ago tweeted Microsoft Buyers Hold so I am very confident that Microsoft's about to get rocked literally 17 minutes ago. Microsoft Buyers Hold done Microsoft's getting crushed if you bought Microsoft calls I am sorry to report that you are about to get absolutely murked um here. I'll show it to you just for the naysayers in here and you're like Kramer never said that here I'll show you what my boy Kramer's up to Microsoft's dead uh Microsoft Holders hold Braveheart moment for Bulls weight Microsoft equals again lit it here.

Let the Bears finish. long day, it's done. Uh, your Microsoft calls just got destroyed. absolutely destroyed and he's still.

he's just tweeting about it and it's done I've never I was a little iffy about my position I was like oh, is it going to break down or not? Uh, but now it's just a matter of time in all reality. Yeah, has Trend Spider said the uh, the kiss of death? The kiss of death Tesla Catching a nice bid? All right, All right marked out the intraday low on the Spy. We're a bit far away from that on the cues, but I'll do it anyway. The Uh Spy is currently trading at 454.63 and the intraday lows 20 cents below it.

So kind of getting close. Um, on the one minute we did see up until about 9 45 some higher highs, higher lows. but that trend has reversed. Now we're seeing lower highs and lower lows, so let's see how it if it ever gets there.

Let's see the reaction to the intraday low to see if buyers want to buy off of that risk point. The cues, uh, the recovery. The cues are just more volatile. Today it had a more volatile sell-off from open until it's low and then a more volatile pop back up.

so just higher volatility in the NASDAQ Uh, the NASDAQ almost broke down just now battling it out at the high from two days ago. So basically it found support at the low from yesterday uh, undershot it and then recovered so shown a bit of strength. Uh has been building up in a little bit of like a bear Channel a little bit of a wedge structure, potentially breaking down right now I'd be watching Microsoft because when Kramer tells you something's good, it just seems like the odds are is going to crack. So seeing how Microsoft directly relates to the cues, it's it's chopped.

We're in some strange strange whole pattern. strange strange whole pattern. How is he allowed to say that? Freedom of speech I Think there's a lot of like misunderstanding in the world of social media when you're talking about stocks and everything I was like that's Financial Advice folks in America In the good old Us of a you have freedom of speech, you can say what you want. It's completely different if people are like paying you for financial advice and then obviously you should have the proper credentials and certificates.

But yet freedom of Speech prompts all like tops. A lot of things trumps a lot of things. is probably the best way to say it. He can kind of say whatever he wants I mean he's not directly telling people, it's not like people are paying him and then he's like okay, like on this service I'll give you Financial advice he can kind of tweet whatever he wants he also has.

there's um, when you're like a like an Entertainer personality type of a thing, there's like also like other special rules in there that basically summarizes to the fact that he could say whatever he wants. um, he can basically say whatever the hell he wants like there's like like a journalist I don't know I was looking into it at one point years ago back in 21 and I was like oh, this is like what he's under like I don't know some sort of designation that he can. He can basically say whatever he wants and it doesn't matter. it's not Financial Advice: Is he homelander? No,