Yeah yeah, I'm gonna jump for the time. Thank you again brother! Good morning, good morning, good morning. Welcome back to the Mad core show where I'm at Coors and you are the show Today it is I Want to say Thursday July 20th did I get that right? Monday Tuesday Wednesday We had yes it is is the 20th, right, 21st, 21st expiration. That's right.

Yeah, it is Thursday July 20th. We figured it out. We cracked the code. we solved the puzzle of what is today's date.

So look at that. that's pretty much it. You learned something today. that's that's essentially the show I Just wanted to do my normal 9 A.M stream to see if we could pick up um, the date and we did.

so that's kind of it. Thanks for hanging out. Thanks! Increase your mic sensitivity too quiet. Is that better? Is that better do I Just need to speak more closely.

Is that is that what you're all about? I Try to fix the lag Is the lag now? better are you guys? Well, you know, no because you don't know when I'm saying this unless you're in my studio with me right now and no one was in my studio with me because I can see my entire studio so you guys have no idea what the lag is between what I'm saying and what you're hearing. so that was an awkward question. We're really not starting Today's show off properly, which makes sense because yesterday was a brutal day I think we're all still a little. Shell Shell Shock Obviously, if you have put you're stoked, you're like no, I'm not shells shocked I'm on the top of the world.

But judging from how many bulls were in here yesterday, I think we're all having a little bit of a rough morning. a little bit of a rough morning. Uh, so we'll see how it goes. If you have been living under a rock and don't know really what's up Tesla and Netflix screwed us, they I'll call it how I'll call it how I see it.

they screwed us pretty hard yesterday. Tesla currently down four percent and Netflix currently down six percent. And the most awkward thing about all of this was Elon Musk on the earnings call last night I don't know how many of you in here right now were with me last night for the earnings call but it was so strange it was fear-mongering he was basically talking about he's like yeah, if the stock goes down, remember like we we have a great long-term Outlook and then he was talking about people taking out like margin loans and it was. It just had a fear-mongering Vibe and I was it was strange.

it was like I was just sitting there once again Shell Shocked afterwards I was just on my couch and I was like what is what? Like what just happened Elon single-handedly brought down Tesla and then he didn't stop there. he brought down the entire NASDAQ he's like yeah, no uh, we're all screwed and then he like subtly hinted at the fact that their output is going to be like lower for the upcoming quarter. and I dude, it was also weird. Also weird I feel like Elon had way too much ketamine last night on that call.

Real weird. It was very much weird. So I don't know I think when things like that happen and then I see chart breakdowns I'm like oh, this is bearish, it's time to get those puts it's time to like, really send this thing to Valhalla and whenever I feel that strong I think those are the times that the market has like super strange reversals. So I'm in a weird way coming up with a plan to almost fade myself like we have a what I consider to be a bearish development price action.

We're getting breakdowns that's bearish. so when I feel that bearish I usually bet bearish and then I usually lose because like it's just a reversal for all time. So I'm I'm almost thinking about fading myself. like is it going to be weird today with everything being so negative? if we still end in the green, like are we gonna just have one of those days where everything is so so bad and everyone hops onto the bear boat and we're gapping down and then just by the end of the day like we just end up popping back up to exactly where we were I don't know.

um I guess I Kind of want your ideas on it I want your thoughts on it because in terms of eps and revenue, Tesla did well deliveries, they crush it. Their guidance seemed weird if you were reading between the lines. Netflix did well on EPS They did well on subscriber growth, but the revenue was a slight. Miss I Honestly have no idea why Netflix got hit so bad I understand if it was down like one percent but six percent after it crushed it on EPs and crushed it on subscriber growth I I don't understand that one.

Um, so it's it'll be interesting but I Want to go very quickly. give you a recap in case you missed the last night of what went out with Netflix of what went down with Tesla Then this morning we got a slew of earnings we're talking about American crush it United crush it United was last night uh, Tsmc not looking so good. uh Johnson and Johnson did pop but last time I checked the chart, it started to vomit back down. Um and then I want to give you obviously the call out for the earnings to watch after the market closes today and then before the Market opens tomorrow.

we early this morning we got initial jobless claims coming in later than expected. So remember we're in that upside down. World We're a good economic report is actually kind of bearish for the market because of its relations to what's gonna like. The Market's thoughts on what that will prompt it to do for monetary policy.

uh. and then we got an update on biodynamics. So I'm gonna kind of rip through all that as much as I can. and then, uh, we'll do some chart review if there's anything on your mind.

I Know a lot of people started talking about Carvana huge push in the post Market but now giving all that pushback. In fact, I think Carvan is now technically in the red. Uh, remember with Carvana I would in no way be chasing it at these levels. In fact, if you're chasing at these levels, you're taking on large risks.

So if you're like no man, I'm feeling good about it. Okay I wish you the best of luck. but for me I just I Don't think that that's a smart move by any definition of the word. Um, if anything, I'm watching Carvana to show serious weakness.

so I can write it back down. This is not gonna hold. It's gonna go up people. Whether it's a gamma squeeze, a short squeeze, and then those come back down.

When things move up rapidly, it's very extraordinarily rare for it to actually hold at those rip levels to the fact that it really doesn't even do it. Um, AMC to thirty dollars a share would be awesome. Uh, it would be awesome. It's not going to happen.

I mean I guess it could happen if they do the reverse stock split, but that's not actually the gain from what four bucks up to 30 that you're probably looking after. Um, especially now. AMC is going to be under pressure in a couple quarters like the lag effect because of the writing and the acting strike. Um, it's as simple as this.

Like right now, we already know the box office is soft and it's going to get more soft. Obviously if movies are not being written, if movies are not being produced, if movies are not hitting the theater, they that is pivotal to their business model. They need movies to be coming out so they can show them so people can come and watch those movies. So right now the longer that the two unions strike, the acting strike and the riding strike go.

Um, that is like fundamentally going to hurt AMC but maybe I mean I hope just for like everyone involved. I Just hope that they figure it out soon because it's can. They could be a serious drag on multiple Industries but we could talk more about that in a second. Here's a little look you see at the damage that was done yesterday.

So the Spy going from 456 currently trading just below 454. Tesla going from 299 and change to 278 Netflix going from I mean in post Market got up to 495 currently trading at 450. making a bit of a recovery and the queue is going from 388 all the way down to 382 39. So a little bit of change there, but clearly the trend from yesterday to the post Market to the pre-market is down down.

I Also want to point out this: so uh, if we go on the 30 minute, this is the features market so the chart's a little bit more built out. I'm watching this trend line for sure. Like honestly, I think the Bulls are still somewhat in control as long as we are honoring this trend line on the 30 minute connecting it just on Monday July 17th to Tuesday July 18th Seeing a nice Trend we still have higher highs, we still potentially have higher lows. Honestly, I'm not from a technical standpoint from a price standpoint I don't even really know if I can be like oh, this is actually bearish and we're going to be turning unless we break below 4 544 the low put in on Tuesday July 18th.

Now obviously you could try to get in early and like or play like I'm talking more of like a swing play being bearish obviously intraday. that's a completely different time frame. but for me to be looking at like the the two hour, the four hour of the daily I Don't think things really change much until we break below some of this region. Friday July 14th, Monday July 17th, Tuesday July 18th This region.

Um, if you're on the Spy roughly around 448, 449 if we break there, okay, yeah, maybe it's time then to look at this: Gap they'll actually playing this Gap That could be a really interesting play to 443. Uh, a lot would have to happen I Mean it's obviously theoretically possible and something I will obviously be watching for, but just a little bit if the run from October until now or specifically really March until now. If it's taught us anything, it's like you do not want to be early in on the short because the market it's just too strong. all the EMAs are still pointing upward and even times like this if we go back to Friday June 16th.

Even that red day leading to another red day leading to another red day and then it just kind of kept going down. Yeah, there's periods of some negative price movement clearly like right here in mid-june but guess what? it's just still put in a higher low and just kept ripping. So ah, I'm trying to be a little bit more disciplined and stick with the overall trend like I want to be trading in the direction of the larger time frame so for me, I would have to see something very, very very convincing for me just to go full bear at this moment. I really, really would.

So anyway, I want to do more chart stuff with you and I just want you know on the 30 minute depending on whatever time frame I've been Trader you are I Do want to point out this trend line right here, see if it honors it if if we crack it yeah I mean it could sell off another 30 points for my Futures Traders But I also want to point out shoulder head shoulder and it looks like in real time right now we are snapping that neckline. Shoulder head shoulder snapping the neckline. The measure move would be actually right to about the close from two days ago if you're looking at the S P 500, but I could take questions on that in a second. Let me rip through this: NASDAQ 100 Futures fall as Netflix shares decline after earnings.

same with a lot of other Tech Now I do want you to know at 8 30 this morning right here the consensus was 242 000 for initial jobless claims less than that came in. we came in at 228 so that came out at 8 30 this this morning. But more importantly of why things are going down right now: nezek future slump as Netflix dense Tech Shine Markets rap Yeah, it was just brutal. Uh so Netflix earnings showcase strength as the rest of the media industry struggles.

So I want to be very clear the numbers that I'm seeing of Netflix It does not make sense to me that Netflix is taking such a hit. Yes, I get that they missed on revenue and that's what all the tech and Netflix bears are really focusing on, but it being on earnings per share. and more importantly than that, it added 5.9 million subscribers when the expectation was right around 2 million so it almost 3x the amount of subscribers that they thought they were gonna add. I I Really don't understand the like the magnitude of the sell-off in Netflix right now? Uh, it.

it just is not adding up in my mind. Netflix Subscriptions jump eight percent Revenue climbs as password sharing Crackdown takes hold Netflix gets rid of cheapest basic ad free option in the US and UK So with all this basically we know they're gonna get a little bit more serious about this password sharing Crackdown in the upcoming quarter. which to me still just makes me think that even their assumption is that about a hundred million accounts are being shared I think even if five percent, even if ten percent, even if 15 of those people decide, you know what I'll finally buy I know some people are gonna be like hey dude, it's just not worth the money. but if 10 ish percent, that's another extra 10 million subscribers.

So I think that that reasoning has a lot to do with why Netflix has been going up and just to be I guess a little bit Fair here even if it's taking a bit of a hit, remember where we've come from Netflix Not long ago a year ago was at 172. we're trading at 450 right now and also going into earnings. We did have this massive push on Tuesday July 18th where it went from 451 all the way up to 475. we're literally just back at that level right now.

So even though this is a large gap down, please, when in doubt, zoom out, realize how far this thing has come. Obviously I wish it was up above 500 just because I have calls and they'd pay big. But in terms of medium term Traders or even investors? Yes, this is clearly a hit, but based on the size of this overall run, even based on the size of the breakout from right here on Friday May 26 when it got above like 375, we're still up a lot from that point. So I think sometimes zooming out gives it a bit more perspective.

Part of the reason not only Netflix's fall off bringing the cues down same with Tesla Tesla shares dip after hours as Earnings Call disappoints Tesla posts an all-time high quarterly Revenue but operating margin dropped to 9.6 revenue from Tesla's core Automotive Business Rose 46 year over year to 21.27 billion Tesla's research and development cost Rose to 943 million with the company writing in a shareholder deck that it focused on being at the Forefront of AI development and has started production of its Dojo training computers. So Tesla beat on Revenue beat on Earnings deliveries. recently reported coming in higher than expected and part of the reason of the downfall of Tesla is because not really the margin thing, not really the EPS not really the revenue. it's more of the Elon had an offhanded comment of production being lower in the upcoming quarter because of like I believe it was because of factories being shut down.

maybe perhaps because of Maintenance I forget the exact reasoning, but it led to just lower production and the call itself. And I know it was alluding to this before. Super strange, super super super strange call. And it wasn't just Elon it was other people on the call too.

That like the way it was like subtle doomsday call out like all right, remember, like we have a long-term view of success. If we have a rough couple quarters, it'll be okay. like they they were setting us up for something and obviously the market was like hearing them loud and clear. Loud and clear.

So that definitely caused Tesla to take a bit of a hit. Netflix took bit of a hit when you add those two up that's dragging down the cues and then we felt the ripple effect. uh, throughout the rest of the tech sector. I mean like if you just run down the list right now here, let's look at some of these other major ones.

You have Apple. uh that went from about 195 all the way down to 193. coin and that's a different story. We'll come back to this.

Microsoft Part of the reason Microsoft took a hit after a huge pop was the new AI competition with Apple Netflix obviously we've seen that in video coming down Meta taking a bit of the hit I mean just the major major Tech names uh, kind of suffering from last night. Now with that being said, things can fully recover today. In fact, we've like we're in that kind of insane environment where like massive Miracle Hail Mary plays seem to be like playing out commonly. I I have no realistic, solid reasoning for it.

I Guess fate loves irony and when everyone's so bullish and like we have to come down, they're like, nah, we'll just keep running it up. So just because things at this moment before the market open are seeming negative, does that mean it has to be bearish? No. But that's why we have to develop an actual trading plan. Look for major breakdowns, Look for major breakouts, Look for fake outbreakouts, Look for fake out breakdowns.

So just because things, remember, posts and pre-market trading are very, very low volume almost 99 95. Like high. 90 of all trading is done between 9, 30 and 4.. So we've seen these weird days where there's a gap down and then all day just surges right back up.

That's possible. On the flip side, this could be a horrible puke of a day and could Mark the actual or I don't know local Maxima in many, many of her favorite socks and many of her favorite indices. That's also possible. My point is is, be prepared for anything.

I Don't think you should be coming into this with a bias I Don't think you should be coming into it with a bullish bias I Don't think you should be coming into it with a bearish bias I Should I would argue trade what the market is telling you is going on if the trend is still to the upside, still be a bull. If you think the trend changing, maybe you just want to wait and see how things play out. or maybe you think it's changing enough to actually be bearish. but just to have a bias of like no, it has to be bullish.

It has to be bearish. I Think that is a a recipe for a disaster I Truly do. Tsmc reports first profit drop in four years as Electronics demand slump continues. so Taiwan semi conductor.

Whatever it is Tsmc, they've reported it this morning. not so good. Tsmc reported Revenue slipped 10 from a year ago while net income fell 23.3 from a year ago. The second quarter Revenue in net income Figures were better than Market Expectation Tmsc is the top producer of the world's most advanced processors, but demand for Consumer Electronics has plunged post Rona Period Taiwan Semiconductor manufacturing Company.

That's what the whole acronym stands for. A little bit of positive news: American Airline Rises raises excuse me 2023 profit forecast after strong second quarter. so they came in being on EPS. They also beat on Revenue.

same thing with the United same thing with Delta. This was a relatively easy call out as soon as Delta told us that they beat. You could safely assume that United American and Southwest would also be. There's the Southwest is the only one of the four major airlines to not report, so I'll be paying attention to that.

But the fact that the first three all be really tells me that there's a high chance of Southwest also reporting positive numbers Johnson and Johnson Pete's on earnings hikes full year guidance as med tech sales surge. So on the surface level, this sounds really good. And in fact, if you look at the market jnj at first they agreed with that. Oh, now we're just going haywire Like the earnings came out, it popped and then it dropped and I guess now we're fighting back Johnson and Johnson now in the green by 1.23 So strange volatility.

seemingly good news. but once again, it popped, dropped and I'm happy. I Just checked in on it because apparently we are rallying back as if we speak. So I'm not the biggest pharmaceutical Trader but it is good to know what some of these large large ones are doing.

So I like to pay attention to Johnson and Johnson and fives or just to know what's going on in that world to know if it's pretty bullish pretty bearish, or if it's choppy. Uh, but not my favorite things to trade. So obviously we're still in earnings season After the market closes today, we're going to be hearing from Capital One and then before the Market opens tomorrow American Express and I Believe this is chamber J So a little bit of an oil report. Uh, and all this is continuing next week.

We have major major companies that still need to report, so the fun of earnings season will be continuing without a doubt. Now with respect to today: I Want you to know that today seasonally is actually absurdly bullish over the past 25 years, over the past two and a half decades, the Bulls have won this day 76 of the time with a private factor of 3.37 The vice is very bullish. Now, just because the bias is very bullish. Does that mean today has to be green? No.

I Mean obviously roughly 25 of the time bulls have lost. But if you were bullish on this day, just every single year, historically, that would have paid you quite a bit. In fact, you would have tripled up on your money. Look at that Equity curve.

So I Can't make any particular promises about today, especially based on the recent reports, but I can tell you that the historic data related to today does greatly favor the Bulls In terms of macroeconomic reports, We already got the initial jobless claims. They were expecting 240 242 coming in at 228, so less jobless claims than expected, representing a stronger economy, increasing the chances of the FED continuing to be hawkish, which puts downward pressure on stocks. Uh, we are going to be getting the U.S leading economic indicators at 10 A.M And then there's nothing scheduled for tomorrow. Five things to know before that stock market bill goes dignity ding ding ding today.

Thursday July 20th Eight in a row Yeah, it might have been eight in a row for the Dow, but now it's starting to fairly question if maybe eight is too many and we're about to have a some form of a pullback. Netflix versus the world I mean I I Truly don't get why Netflix is down this much. The numbers: I think it's only down relative to that rip we had from 450 all the way up to like 470 480 and I think in this short time frame, it's not really that logical. but if you zoom out as soon as you're at the daily chart, you're like okay, no, this stock has been ripping quite a bit.

Tesla's margin crunch. Well, that's part of the reason. uh, we continue to Target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year, but we expect Q3 production will be a little bit down because we've got summer shutdowns for a lot of factory upgrades. So I alluded to this a bit before I thought it was Factory maintenance I Guess it's factory upgrades.

So as soon as people heard that in the earnings call, Tesla started to sell and sell and sell. and then just like the overall awkwardness in general, did not whatsoever help the call. It was really strange. If you don't believe me.

I recommend you check it out. it's up on Rumble it's up on YouTube it's there. It's before this one. it's the most recent piece of content.

It is weird. med tech lifts J J Uh, we talked about that Russia hits Ukraine Supports All right? Uh, you might want to be paying attention to what's going on with wheat. This is most likely going to cause wheat to continue to go higher and higher and higher. Now a little bit later, we should come back to this Biden's economic approval rating Rises Slightly, but it's still just 37 percent despite Biden Nomics push so we could come back to that.

Just good to kind of know what's going on in the world of the economy and politics and all that stuff. so we'll come back there but before things really open up for the day. I Just wanted to check out a little bit. All right, we are good here.

Let me drop this before we go. Any questions, comments, concerns? Oh oh as your questions comments concerns are coming in. We do have five minutes to go I Want to keep you updated on what I have remember yesterday I cut about half of my exposure a little bit over half my exposure I got rid of a lot of SPX calls. Uh, actually that was the main movement I as of now I have meta calls Tesla calls Netflix calls and SPX calls.

So the Scx position I had 125 I cut it down to 50 so more than half I had other Svx calls that I took all the profit on. So right now before the Market opens, I have Tesla calls meta calls Netflix calls SPX calls. Obviously, today is a day for me to like. Just basically, um, try to control the hemorrhaging if you will.

With that many calls on such a dip at open when the Market opens, I'm probably going to be down another series chunk. So I just want to let you know the positions. Obviously I'm gonna have to do a lot of position management today. Uh, so I the positions I have now are not going to be what I have by the end of today I have to do a lot of position management today.

a lot of hemorrhaging control and obviously I'll let you know how that all goes. but I just want to keep you apprised to my position. Um, so uh, only mentioned AI wants LMAO test only mentioned yeah I mean that could have probably helped the stock if they push it up higher. Uh, by just saying AI over and over and over and over and over again.

That would have been a nice one, but they didn't and it was really strange. I'm obviously hoping for some sort of miraculous recovery today. I mean imagine if this buy actually gets up to 457. imagine if Tesla gets back up to 290.

Imagine if Netflix gets back up to 470. Imagine if the queues get back up to 386 387. Is it possible? Yeah, But one of the major things I am paying attention to is on this 30 minute chart: shoulder, head, shoulder, potentially snapping the neckline. but I'm also paying attention to this trend line.

uh, we formed it a little bit earlier in July and I'm wondering if we're just going to bounce and rip off of that. So I mean obviously it's theoretically possible, but maybe I'll just watch. Kind of. This wedge structure is what I'm paying attention to in terms of the S P 500.

Um, obviously break to the upside: I think the Bulls continue the party. A break to the downside sets up a potential test of this recent low that we saw on Tuesday July 18th. So that's kind of my structure. I'm not coming into this bullish or bearish.

I'm going to be willing. hey, whatever price, action, whatever breakouts, breakdowns are telling me I'm going to be going with the trend of the day. Uh, and if it seems to be choppy like yesterday I Just won't trade it. Remember, just because the Market's open doesn't mean you need to be trading.

All right. So with all that being said, the Spy try to make a recovery above yesterday's low right now at 454. um, weird times in the market I Do want to I guess Share my opinion that this is a time where you probably want to be sizing down your bets. Uh, strange volatility.

High volatility. This is the time where you maybe sitting on your hands a bit more, maybe being a little bit more conservative that might be on the menu. So just my thoughts. but obviously it's your money, it's your account.

nothing I Say is financial advice. Do what you think is appropriate for you. before that Bell goes to dignity. ding ding ding I Do want to bring your attention to the what's pinned to the top of chat? Become a goonie Matt Cores.locals.com pin to the top of chat in the description of the video.

That's exactly where I give you the seasonality of whatever the trading day is. So I already posted it. If you want the seasonality for tomorrow, it's already up there. You could get it for free Macquares at Locals.com obviously.

I Do the seasonality for free and the premium membership is where I post my trades and other Traders post their trades just so you can see what's going on in the community. Get other people's thoughts, opinions, ideas, things like that macquares at Locals.com If you want to try out the Premium for free, it's only ten dollars a month, but if you want to try it out for free, use the code Goonie G-o-n-i-e and you will get it. You will get it. You will get it.

You will get it. So a minute to go actually 50 seconds. With that being said, are you guys bullish or bearish on the day? I Want to know what your bias is? A lot of you guys were bullish yesterday and I want to say you misled us, but the people who voted bullish yesterday kind of screwed us over a bit. Um, myself included I was actually very bullish yesterday and I learned a very expensive, painful lesson because of that red Bearish bear.

Then Bull bear Shrek Bullish Bullish for NVIDIA Bearish Bull Bearish yesterday. Bearish today. Bear Bear Bullish. Bear green.

You guys are very mixed. Uh, sideways, bare, Interesting. Interesting. Well, the Market's about to open before that happens.

Don't forget to smash the like button. Helps out with the algorithm on YouTube helps out with the battle leaderboard over on. Rumble Shout out to everyone watching I Do appreciate the support. Thank you thank you thank you Like sub helps me out and with that being said Diggity Ding ding ding The casino is open.

Best of luck to all. Play responsibly if not have fun. Oh brother oh brother oh brother should I see the damage on the account? Oh that's bad. The account just got murked back down to 86k.

it was at 1 30 yesterday. Ouch dude. Tesla just cost me serious money. ouch I shouldn't have looked I should have waited.

that's painful I should not have looked dude that was I don't know why I looked I should have I should have let the market open up a little bit. Uh uh I should have should have been. That's not good for the old psychology, not good for the old psychology at all. Well, here's here's to hoping for a miracle today.

Here's to hoping for a historic recovery. Jesus Ah, it's brutal. That's absolutely brutal. part of trading, part of trading.

All right, Where are we at? Let's look at some of these Market internals and whatnot. All right opening up. How are the market internals thus far today? So that's actually the New York Stock Exchange Bullish. Interesting.

Interesting. Let me look at some of the advancers and decliners. that's bullish. That's actually still bullish.

Seriously, that's bullish. How do we open up here? Neutral. Okay, so the internal readings thus far and remember, we're only two minutes into the day, so please take it with a grain of salt. A pinch of salt if you will.

The internals to the market right now are bullish slash neutral. but I'm actually not even getting bearish readings yet. Very strange. Very, very strange Dude, this is I'm getting pummeled by Netflix and Tesla pummeled uh Matt Carvana Roblox Swinger Day trade um I'd be more interested in swinging both of those Carvana I would swing puts when it finally shows weakness and Roblox actually I wanted to swing calls on it.

Where are we at right now? Ooh, buying it on discount. Maybe I'd wait for it to pick up a little bit just to ensure that this isn't a fake out breakout on. Roblox Um so I'm feeling a little bit bullish on Roblox Carvana is obviously bullish right now. dude, it's pushing 57 Jesus Um I missed it though.

so because I missed it I just have to wait for it to finally show weakness. so I could play it on the fall back down. But right now, if I own Carvana, if I was in Carvana, I would just keep riding the tread. why not? I mean if if it's trending up, that's exactly what you want to see, it's exactly what you want to see.

All right. Netflix Still getting murked right now Tesla Trying to push its opening high, but this has a way to go Tesla's at 279 Netflix Following even more is that 441 the queues are picking up though, so that's some form of a win. The Spy pushed to 454.86 it pushed to the high from two days ago. Uh, getting a little bit smacked there.

Maybe Tesla's starting to put something together Maybe Like I said, this needs to be the recovery of a lifetime for me to not completely take a clobbering today. coins up one percent at 111. Roblox is at just below 44. Carvana is at 56.

Meta popped up to 315 smacked by a dollar. Fifty apples looking good Apple's at 196. Apple doesn't seem to care, so it's really just. What's particularly hitting me right now is Netflix it's down eight percent.

but the cues, the cues are down point five percent right now. a dollar 84.80 Um, if the cues can somehow go green on the day with apple moving with Microsoft moving. so even Tesla's making a bit of recovery all right there. There's flickers of optimism right now.

This is a nice strong opening. Will it hold? I Have no idea. dude, this thing could turn violently. This little pop here could be a bull trap getting everyone like me excited.

I was like oh, are we gonna make a recovery? That's totally totally totally possible. So I'm gonna be patient. I'm gonna, you know, pray for the best. Prepare for the worst.

Pray for the best. Prepare for the worst. Imagine if Tesla does get back to 290. imagine if the Spy does get to 456.

uh, but as always I'm gonna wait those first 15 20 minutes just see how things are shaking out. For 455 is interesting to me. on the Spy 455 to 455.25 I'm watching that 25 cent region I think if the Spy can get above and hold above that, that's wrong. Ooh, maybe a little bit of a trendline breakout here on the Spy potential trendline breakout.

Whoa there. Scooter Watching this, without a doubt a fake out breakdown bounces out I like those kind of trays or the Bulls gonna be fighting today. Interesting recovery this morning and right now we're literally just at. We're battling it out at that trend line.

A lot of people must be watching it. Come on, let's send this one orbital uh coin. What the hell man got smacked right there. Three bucks like it was nothing Apple coming down a little bit the dollar Dollar's picking up I would prefer that the dollar gets smoked right here.

Spy damn is the spider really gonna get going today? Was this fire really gonna get gone? Did I Let's take a little look at the daily. The Spy opened up at yesterday's low, so once again, when in doubt, zoom out and you can see that in the short time frame. things might seem extreme. but look at this.

we opened up at yesterday's low. We held it at 454 and we're already pushing to 455. yesterday's close was 455 19. if we take that out, we might be talking about a retest of 456.

I've been carrying a lot about 456.75 as an upward Target is today going to be a miracle recovery day? even Netflix just caught us. Well I was gonna say caught some sort of a bid but actually still looks horrible Tesla Tesla's at 280. dude, if this thing can push 285 just so I could dump some of my calls for less of a hit, that would be beautiful. That would be beautiful Carvana taken some form of a hit Meta maybe Met has been looking strong I have Meta calls for July 28th.

Not this Friday But next Friday I'm still feeling good about those. If this thing can push that 3 16, 317 level I Think we could have a runner dude spy people buying up the Spy We're battling out battle region right here. The Spy is at a battle region. Nice, nice, nice, nice, nice, nice, nice.

We are 455 to 455 25 is a big battle region. Once again, 455 to 455 25. This 25 cent region is something I care a lot about after that. If we can break 455 25 I think it's going to be a nice 75 cent push to uh, 456 flat.

but this breakout might be holding right here the fake out breakout push, but we're at some resistance right now. That's why I'm watching this and then we know 4 600 is important. Oh man oh man oh man oh man. if I did bought if I tripled up at the opening today, I might even be back in the green if I'd done that Now obviously that's super degenerate.

I'm not saying people should do that but imagine if imagine if you had the balls to do it, the Dollar's still going. Not the biggest fan about that, but doesn't seem to be slowing down the Spy Even the cues are now picking up. Even the cues are picking up. We just tagged a new intraday High I'm just curious if we could take out 455 ADD Alert A little bit of a smack right there.

This is the Battle Zone Come on, come on, come on. come on. come on. come on.

come on. come on come on. Apple Looking beautiful Apple Up to 196 up a full dollar up half a percent. Good stuff.

Good work out of apple Microsoft Looking good. Meta looks like it's consolidating Nvidia looks like it's consolidating Amazon Popped got hit now. just kind of going flat Google Google's looking good do Netflix just a horrible vomit on Netflix Jesus wow Netflix I Just don't get it like this. The report was way more good than it was bad.

and it this thing is just getting clobbered. uh oh, are we officially getting rejected at that region? Remember when you come to important breakout levels about 50 50. it could be a breakout, could be a fake out breakout thus far. obviously we're getting rejected which is also aligning with like struggling at this trendline breakout.

Now on the flip side, if we push all the way up here, consolidate and then build up some momentum I Actually Like trading that kind of a structure, so definitely just watching this watching to see how things might or might not shape up today. Uh, let's check in on the market internals once again to do neutral over there kind of. Polish right there. Kind of bullish right there.

it's still neutral slash bullish I Would say weekly bullish are the market internals Tesla Just took a hit, made a fresh low, but now the Spy maybe turning things around. do I Just want to take a shot on this one minute. pulled right back into the EMA I'm worried about I Just know that there's going to be some resistance right here and like if it rips through it. great.

This is a great entry, but if I get in here I mean my account I don't really have much leeway to do dumb shit dude. Tesla as of right now is costing me 25k. I'm still up on meta and Netflix costing me the whole thing I mean Netflix is down 99 I Might as well just hold it and see if there's like a miraculous recovery which doesn't seem to be the base case does not seem to be the base case. Is this gonna go? Are we really gonna pop off of this? I Don't know if I'm feeding myself too much hopium, but it's interesting we're consolidating right below a breakout level I wonder if it's just attempting to get some momentum Netflix Bouncing off of 436 to 441 like it's absolutely nothing did this.

The movement on Netflix is absolutely insane Tesla Trying to hold itself a little bit Mark out some previous highs and lows. Uh, Tesla now has an upside. Gap Built to 289.52 the low from yesterday. Um, if you want to play a portion of it, maybe 286, but obviously not for the faint of heart.

Oh SpaghettiOs Ooh, one of my market internal readings just flipped bearish. Ew one up. Then it's flicker. It's really close right here.

Like sometimes we're strongly bullish, sometimes we're strongly bearish right now. As it as it was dipping down, it flipped to bearish, but then on the pop, like we must be right at like that zero neutral line for it to be flickering back and forth so quickly. Interesting. Most of the days when with these internals, usually it's bullish all day or bearish all day.

It's interesting when there's actually switches throughout the day that just shows your teetering teetering on trend. Uh, interesting. So this is kind of it. Honestly, like my internals will most likely turn bearish if it cracks 450 460, but if it pushes 455, it'll stay bullish.

Interesting, interesting, interesting, interesting. What is this one from Street Beat? All right. Tesla Maybe a bit of a liquidity grab I'm praying for it. you might be thinking yourself wow Matt that sounds like a lot of hopium.

It is a lot of opium. I'm hoping that I can save myself a little bit of money. I Dumped Netflix Three years ago uh Market Masher Predatory creature sure took advantage of us. We are the good working folks.

Shake my head Market Masher Arcade maker Predatory creatures I'm not really sure what like these are down. not because of market makers, but because of the reports this isn't Netflix and Tesla didn't take a hit because of like Market structure. They took a hit because of the Market's opinion on their earnings. All right, spy picking up a little bit.

Is it worth a shot here? I'm a little a little gun shy dude. Some of these Market internals. hmm how dumb is it to try to take this play? What's the dollar doing? The dollar still showing a little bit of strength? maybe shoulder head, shoulder though if the dollar starts to crack, that could get interesting. Could definitely get interesting.

Come on, spy, Come on spy. Uh day nine today of aggressive dip buying as Es remains glued to four Five Eight eight support after one failed shot to push lower the same. if Es to get a mini dip, four five Seven Five Four Five Six four Brewers will need to see it quickly within 15 minutes now. ideally.

uh, 4 600 Resistance clear as we continue to Four Six One seven. Oh, spy tagging a new intraday. The markets were like bullish. Flickered bears for a little bit.

but now on this push, it's back to the internals being bullish I don't as much as like crazy stuff is going on I I guess I view this as either I need to find a position to be bullish or need to sit on my hands because none of the internals are suggesting like oh, this is the time for you to bet against the market. You're fighting the trend and once in a while you fight the trend and you get lucky and it works out in your favor. But if you do that time and time again, fighting the trend just eats You Alive eats you alive uh Tesla I'm looking at some in the Uh Netflix try to catch a bit but now it's getting smacked again. Oh well.

I Want the dollar to die off the Spy try to get the breakout as of now, seems like a little bit of a liquidity grab Futures trying to hold this breakout, but there's resistance just above at Four Five Nine four. that's the high from two days ago and then obviously the key technical key psychological level of 4600 flat. Uh, thus far if you guys are tuning in right now I haven't done anything I'm kind of in portfolio protection mode I suppose um I'm trying to handle some some bad bad bets, some bad plays, some bad positions. very very happy I Size down obviously I wish I sized down a hundred percent and just had no risk.

But I mean you guys saw me I Was kind of teetering with the decision yesterday and at the last second I figured you know what like uh, right now like the loss sucks or like the the paper loss on the account. it like it's bad but at least it's somewhat manageable if I kept that full position. Oh dude, my account would have probably been blown up so it happens. So hoping that this breakout can continue, hoping that the breakout can get going I want to take out fourth.

obviously we're just in this battle region I'm not doing anything until I get oh Tesla looking like crap Tesla's looking heavy, lower high unless it can just bounce right out of here and take out 478. I might just need to get out of this bullshit. Come on Netflix come on Tesla make that recovery. coin getting hit Apple holding Microsoft getting hit Netflix bouncing a little and video looking good in video trying to go green on the day not far away.

Meta kind of going flat Google was looking good this morning. How's it looking now Google is looking nice today Uh, Carvana getting hit. Um, what else do we have? How's J and J doing J J is looking good. The energy sector green popped came down.

Now it's mid-range Uh, financial sector is looking good JP Morgan Bank of America Wells Fargo City Yeah, financials are looking good today. Utilities got hit but attempting to bounce back. not really moving much and uh Healthcare popped up coming down a little bit right now. I do Netflix and Tesla Maybe I mean if Tesla can take out 278.60 could see a return to the intraday.

High The Spy has been battling with strength in uh, the energy sector, oil trading just below 76 a barrel and also the financial sector has been strong. But the queues? It's a mixed bag. The cues are drifting up, but there's noteworthy names that are doing very poorly today. Tesla sucking Netflix sucking.

Then there's ones that are doing good like Google's moving today. So a mixed bag in the tech sector? Um, yes, economic indicators are coming out at 10 A.M So I'm also kind of waiting for that. We have about seven minutes to go until we get that report. Hopefully some optimism in that the Spy really struggling in this resistance region between 455 and 455 25 really struggling.

Uh uh. just to clarify I haven't made any decisions yet Today I was attempting to wait for 9 45 and at this point since then the spies just been choppy. So at this point I might as well just wait for the economic indicator report to come out once again at 10 A.M 10 A.m 10 A.m 10 A.M Uh, definitely looking for a little bit of a Hail Mary Miracle play today if the Spy can push. I mean I have visions of grandeur of it touching 457 today I'm not saying the odds of that are high by any means, but I I'm praying I'm praying I'm praying I'm praying praying I'm praying I'm praying.

Come on, come on. spy, Do what you do what you do spy, bring us back to the promised land. Netflix Also wouldn't mind if you rip it back to 470 480 today. Would love for Netflix just to absolutely start ripping.

How's Nvidia doing Nvidia is looking good Nvidia is about to go green on the day Apple's green Microsoft's holding green Nvidia looks like it wants to go green. Meta is not far away from going green itself. Some things some of these Tech names I mean Tesla looks like shit Netflix looks like shit. but some of these other ones are looking good.

coins now looking weak. wait recovery a little bit. maybe maybe a bit if coin can take out 109 maybe the party's back on over there. Uh XLF looking good XLE looking good.

Xlu looking good XLV Coming down so a lot of the other sectors outside of Tech are helping the Spy right now and then Tech It popped, went sideways pop going sideways arguably a little bit dude Tesla and Netflix or just not catching a bid Google coming down a little bit Apple Coming down a little bit, but green on the day Microsoft Trying to hold green on the day after morning pop, There's not much that could be done right now. Patience. patience, patience, patience people. might it just might be a chop BS Day Um, remember there are days that it's just it's not worthwhile to trade it.

This could be one of those days where there's just not much going on. Uh, the next thing that I think is going to jolt the market is that economic indicator report coming out in five minutes. So now I'm at the point of kind of waiting for that. the Spy popped going sideways accuse popped going sideways, but just broke these lows.

Obviously you're going to want it to stay above that Tesla Cracking dude Tesla Just Elon I Can he gave one of the worst conference calls earnings calls like it was just so awkward? So freaking awkward? Tesla Tesla Tesla All right, All right. What are you guys watching? Or is there anything else that's moving right now that you're watching that? I Just haven't brought up. um Tesla Going lower still? yeah, unfortunately it is patience. Baba What was awkward about it? Did you listen to it I'm assuming you did it because it was really, really awkward Tesla Bounce out of that liquidity box Netflix Would love for it to take out 447 if Tesla can take out 278.60 I Think we might have a recovery at maybe potentially the intraday.

High Uh, Netflix sideways Meta looking a little heavy Nvidia did pop looking a little heavy on the short term Microsoft Turning around Apple turning around coin doing nothing carvana, maybe picking back up look for it to break above 54. Amazon Chopping Bitcoin back above 30 000 Xrp is trading just above 80 cents East trading just above 1900. Roblox popped coming down a bit Who the Spy is now looking a bit I don't know. it's just chop I Think people are if I had to guess I Think it people.

At this point, at 9 57, they're like, okay I might as well wait the three minutes for that economic indicator report. Actually, what was the expected value on that I Forget it off the top of my head. uh, a drop of point Six percent. Last time, it was a drop of 0.7 So we're looking.

That's the Line in the Sand U.S leading economic indicators: A drop of 0.6 is the expectation. the expectation. Look at that. We were just shopping sideways.

Chop Chop Chop Fake out breakout. Fake out Breakdown: Fake out breakout. Fake out breakout. Just chopping sideways.

The market is waiting for something. The market is waiting for something someone asked me to look at. Nicola I Kind of hate them just because it's a fraud company. Or it was, uh, good that they fired there dude.

Oh nice pull flag I Mean, if it pushes 280, you can definitely go. uh to clarify, this is nothing I would invest in. This is just an active trade I Think it could be explosive to the upside. could totally continue from here.

but if it does that or even if it doesn't I think this comes back down like I think this is a dollar stock like it's just not that good of a company. but that's the discussion for if you're talking about investing and I would not invest in it. Nikola I mean this is nice moves. It could be super super fun to trade without a doubt.

Um I wouldn't Chase it here. but if you already had a position if you got in on this consolidation and wrote it up yeah, ride the trend and just be careful of it. the trend ending and you losing your money, just ride the tread as long as it's intact. But I'm not chasing it here if I had to chase it here.

yeah, I'd be praying for the breakout of 280, but I would just be risking 246 I'd keep my risk very close just in case this is the actual Peak spy starting to look a little bit heavy but still in the consolidation range. Matt doesn't like the Nikola fund well I just I admit that it could be fun to trade, but I would never invest in it Nikola has a very bad pass. the CEO was a complete fraud. It's tough to invest in a stock like that, but if you're just talking about something that has volatility and range to trade like percentage move yeah I mean obviously recently it's been moving well, but I think it's very, very important to distinguish between uh, like active training and then wait, where's the CNBC thing? Hang on.

did I get logged out for whatever reason, sign in, sign in. there. We go all right. U.S Leading economic indicators should be coming out another hour of Spock on the street I'm Sarah Eisen with David Faber Live for you as always from Post 9 to the New York morning off.

Take a look at stocks here in the early action mixed picture as the Dow pushes forward up on 220 points. Not bad S P 500 unchanged and that's the story. The NASDAQ It lags today down half a percent after some high profile names like Netflix and tests taking a hit to call them misses I would say fine. Now taking a hit, leading to some stock sellers in just a moment, we are 30 minutes here into the trading session.

Three big movers we're watching. Let's start with Tesla and Netflix Both stocks are down just by posting leads on the quarter. more on those names in a moment. On the bright side, Johnson and Johnson biggest Dow gainer in early trading delivering an earnings beat hiking its full year guidance on strong med tech sales and Vera Biotech down more than 40 percent breakout not holding phase two trial for its flu treatment failed to meet its main goals.

You can see what happens there on some of these biotechs when that happens. Yeah, that can. uh, it can be a bad bad day. Profit: Do you have the numbers on this? Stay the crossing the tape for that.

Let's get to: Rick Santelli Rick Thanks David Yes, our June Read on Leading economic indicators: Down seven tenths of one percent. A little bit more than expected. It's down 15 consecutive months meaning negative month over month change by getting hit consecutive months in a row. This morning, we had Philly fed 11 consecutive negative month-over-month changes in a row.

Buddy down Seven Tenths is the worst. Well, only since March when it was down 1.2 But here's something notable: We haven't had a positive number since February of 22.. Now for existing home sales for the month of June let's Head East to Diana Olick. Diana Well, Rick existing home sales fell 3.3 percent in June From May to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.16 million units.

that's a deeper dive than the street. Expected sales down nearly 19 year over year and that is the slowest June Sales Pace In 14 years, it is all about lack of Supply There were just 1.08 million homes for sale at the end of June down 13.6 percent year over year at the current sales. Pace That's just a 3.1 month supply. Six months is considered a balanced Market between buyer and seller Tesla Vomiting Keeping pressure on prices sold in June 410 200 that is the SEC second highest price of all time off less than one percent from last June But remember, this is a median, so part of that is skewed toward what selling and higher mortgage rates are keeping sales stronger.

On closing my Tesla home prices measured by repeat sales of similar homes have been rising now for several months. First time buyers dropped to just 27 from 30 percent a year ago. Historically they're usually 40 percent of the market all cash sales Rose to 26 percent because as the marketplace buyers need cash to be competitive I'm out of Tesla Yeah Diana thank you very much Diana Olek Just want to add in a few economic data points to the mix and the conversation today that we've got. and you know Rick mentioned Philly Fed I Think it's worth diving into Philly Fed because we knew that these Regional manufacturers five eleven straight down months.

But something very interesting is happening in Philadelphia David Look at the end of the chart just got out. So the current so now I have Netflix SPX is down 99 so maybe I just pray for a miracle recovery which is really perking up in a surprisingly nice way. And what we're talking about and this is a survey is that 40 percent now of the firm surveyed in Philadelphia activity over the next six months, only 11. Expect decreases, Future new orders climbed, future shipments climbed firms expect to hire more in the next six months It's commentary can't read too much into one Regional Fed survey, but I thought it was notable.

vomiting now David Whether the economy is accelerating and seeing some strength which is just odd and unpredicted because of all the tightening that's happened, you know we're at the same at least Netflix going sideways. Maybe it can save itself at the bottom here. Actually, jobless claims Today they came down coin turning around 29 000. Microsoft looking heavy coming down anyway Nvidia vomiting the future vomiting Yeah Amazon Fresh low getting hit right.

Hard data. but yeah, and you look to the future of what firms are expecting and especially if manufacturing firms which are weak right now and feeling the heat because that is one part of the economy that has suffered under the weight of rising interest rates are feeling better about the future. That's telling? Yeah, and the jobs Market remains stronger. it does.

and of course wow, Wow. interestingly sorry I'd Love you to listen to uh, two pieces of sound. one from Elon Musk on the on his call when he talked about the macroeconomic environment and then for my interview yesterday with Bobby codic of course the CEO of Activision both talking about kind of a hard economic environment as is falling apart and the next day everything's fine I I Don't know what the hell is going on? um, it'd be totally Frank I Wish I did we think there's a lot of economic uncertainty and I think uh, you've You've heard the FED say that they are focused on a two percent inflation rate next year I Think that we haven't seen the last of interest rate increases and you know I Think we have a lot of concern about shoulder head shoulders. They're not.

People have the ability to pay for software maker and your sales boomed. During the pandemic, they saw people at home playing video games demand like they've never seen before and it's coming off right now and there's a give back. you're in recession yeah, and your industry is very different and Musk is right. It's hard to tell what the hell is going on because one indicator is good and and the next shows that that things are weakening.

And just to show you how relevant right now it is of where you sit Las Vegas Sands Reported last night commentary from the CEO couldn't have been more bullish. As far as what they're seeing in demand, here's Robert Goldstein The powerful recovery taking place in Macau in Singapore is evident in our results. We believe it's early days and there's still room to run in both those markets and that was in China-related business and Asia related business David which people people have been sort of negative on. Yeah, well, they've been concerned about the willingness of the Jeff excuse me, the Chinese consumer to spend DR Horton Had pretty strong things to say about the health of the housing market.

Dr Horton's chairman Let's look at the macro commentary. despite continued higher pressures, are net sales and my meta plays up a thousand. I'm just gonna take my money on it remains limited and demographics calls for today. I'm closing them.

What that shows is that there's that there's supply issues I'm just closing everything so I can start fresh. Nope. By the way, that stock has turned around and it was up I'm completely flat. Oh, this is a brutal hit up as much as three percent.

So DR Horton shares of trying around here but not quantity I Want to cut it I want to get rid of it I want to move on there. You can see it. I've had an incredible move for quite some period of time. but as you say, because of a lack of inventory and therefore new home sales are a larger percentage of overalls and they think they I didn't go to put there's this weird coverage flat things happening I Want to see how things actually start playing and pent up demand for travel and probably some of my market internally.

Hard to read another, some are still neutral I Dug into this one a little bit as IBM because that's always a gauge on Enterprise spending. You've got a good read from Arvind Krishna who I spoke to about the results. The results were why I mean some people say it's a man take out the intraday low structure business which is not really the key they beat in software. they beat in or matched in software and Consulting so that was important And when I talked to Krishna about new intraday logo, it was pretty bullish.

She said I see GDP and I think he was talking globally and the U.S staying positive for this year and Tech spending is three to four percent higher than GDP. Still a consolidation rate strong. With the exception of China and Japan and India in the Middle East it's almost boom times right now. None of this stuff that we're seeing Europe is remarkably resilient.

North America He said I think is going to be a slower role in terms of all the negatives. He's not in the Consulting business, seeing some of what some of the competitors are seeing in terms of cancer bounce off of 454. projects or reduced signings. They still see customers pivoting to bigger projects on cloud and on AI And and my take there definitely shows because a little bit of strength.

yeah, five minute pop companies are bracing for recession, right? right? And what does all this mean for what Jay Powell is thinking? you know I listened to John Gray earlier on squawkbox of course who runs Blackstone or is President of Blackstone saying again, burn a bit bearish right? here We were bullish that is going to move next week. We know that there's a near 100 chance. The question is, is the market going to be right? that it's one and done. The market now thinks they're done after this and they're going to be cutting by March Is that is that really what's going to happen if we start to see more acceleration and the FEDS paying attention to all these other signals, Could that mean inflation remains stickier? It's a risk.

It's just a risk that people need to be aware of and that investors should be thinking about. It's not something that the market is necessarily factoring in right now, but it could mean more rate hikes and it could mean higher for longer into next year. Just a risk, but we don't know. We'll continue to watch the inflation data to see if you know that big drop that we got last week was a one-off.

There's an auction today for 10-year tips. It'll be an interesting gauge for how investors are thinking about and how much demand they have for in inflation protection since the disinflationary report, or whether they think maybe it's going to Bubble back up given all this strong data. So much, So much. so much of course, including Netflix and Tesla which is which are both down rather sharply.

Well, that's at Tesla because our next guest says quote the multiple price cuts for Tesla is a game changer and the Strategic poker move comes from a position of strength that is, of course Dan Ives Only he would write like that web Bush Securities Analyst reiterating a buy today, raising his price Target on Tesla to 350. So you actually raise even though the stock is down and the Market's worried about more price Cuts Why I Think investors aren't seeing far through the trees because ultimately what's happening here, we're seeing a stabilization from margin perspective better than expected in terms of Auto gross margins. You look at units right now, the orange trajectory toward 2 million and then this is the drum roll the Super Bowl to now what I believe is modernization of supercharger battery and I think last night the biggest thing from the conference call FSD talking to another OEM Ultimately risk though on this one, this is really the first step of what's going to be a broader strategy because they've built it. I Mean if you look at FSD full self-driving Full self-driving and I'll argue.

My thesis is mainly obviously we're breaking down below the intraday low. but uh, it's actually more to do with the dollar strength. It's a little bit visualizing from margin perspective, a little bit fishing based on the concept of okay, like I think with the market ripped so hard right now with this like absurd Market rip lower in prices at one point I Think there's going to be enough weakness where people are like cool I just need to take my profits like I Don't want to let any of this go bad I'm kind of thinking that I see some of the internals turning a little bit so taking a stab at it transmission to the Auto industry since taking a stab at it I think things seem like they could be turning but if I'm wrong if there's