For my next trick, I will be attempting to predict what the market will be doing in the short term, namely at the end of this first full week of training. So I know this is tough, can the market be predicted? and a lot of the time it can't But once in a while we see these patterns of seasonality and sometimes the seasonality As in that particular month, week, or day over a large data set could be pretty prominent. so we tried this last week. You guys seemed to like it when I said hey, From the seasonal perspective, it seems pretty smart to go long at the end of the week.

and now I think we might have found another seasonality trade for the end of this week. So I obviously hope that you're watching this in time. but I want to give you all the information first. we have to talk about the way to normalize this data.

So I found this awesome calendar for June to explain it. So a lot of the times when you're looking at something such as right here: Thursday June 1st Not every June 1st is a Thursday Sometimes it could be whatever Monday Tuesday It might be another training day or it could be the weekend. so that's not how you want to normalize data if you're looking at it historically, especially for this daily chart type of information. What you would want to look at is just the first trading day of the month.

so for this year it's a Thursday Last year it could have been a Thursday it could have been any other day. In fact, I don't even know. But that's how you normalize this type of data. If you're trying to compare various years to each other, you just look at the trading day of the month or the trading day of the year.

So trading day of the month one and then Friday was trading day of the month too. and then obviously Monday was trading day of the month three. So that allows you to compare Tdom trading day of the month one compared to one from whatever year you want and then two. So that's how we normalize it.

and I Know that's a little bit nerdy here, but I just want to get that out of the way because it's going to make a lot more sense when you see this. So this is a program called Build Alpha and this is what I use for a lot of various forms of testing. but for the point of this video, it's more so just going to be seasonality. So as you can see I right now have long.

The seasonality that I'm about to point out to you does favor the Bears. So I'm going to switch over to short and then Es is the contract for the S P 500 futures market. So if we look at this week, we had trading day of the month, three, four, five, six, and seven five days Monday all the way to Friday if we normalize it which we have to because that's how we compare this year to other years look at your calendar. We had two training days of the month last week Thursday and Friday So then this week goes three, four, five, six, uh, and seven.

Now the way this program works and this is just a nuanced thing, but this is maybe for anyone who's shooting build alpha or maybe I'm just trying to like. Get ahead of any confusion here. Whenever you look at a day like this, that's the trigger and then you would get in on the next open. So if I want to evaluate what happens on trading Day of the month 2 Well, the trigger would have to be trading Day of the month one.

Like the way these programs work is you have to see the trigger or like. Okay, today's the first trading day of the month and then you either go long or go short on the next one. So basically if I want want to evaluate trading day of the month number two, my trigger would be the day before the training day of the month one and that's gonna make sense in a second. So let me just simulate this.

Remember, we're going short we're seeing because I've already done this back testing. So once again, I'm trying to predict an upcoming trade for you right now. I'm trying to call out a trade before it even happens and it worked last week. so let's see if it works again.

And once again, we're using about 25-ish years worth of data. so let's simulate how things have gone historically and bada bing bada Boom! It's Already Done Check this out. So as you can see, month equals six. Great.

That means we're in the month of June and then trading day of the month equals six. As in, you would be getting into a short position when the Market opens on the seventh trading day of the month. which is Friday. So the way you would look at this and I am evaluating this on the Futures market.

So if you're more of someone trading the SPX or spy, well remember that the Futures Market trades on the Globex session. So really, the trading day of the month six? Well, that's Friday but it technically opens up at 6 p.m ET on Thursday night. So if you want to get close to that, but you're not really a Futures Market Trader, it might be best for you to actually get in when the Market's about to close on Thursday. Just want to put that out there.

You might not want to wait all the way till 9 30 the next morning, because once again, the Futures Market trade will be entered at 6 pm on Thursday night because of how the Globex Market works. and that's what we're testing this on. But anyway, let me bring up the equity curve for you right here. so the very top one which is highlighted.

This is saying you would go short when the Market opens on Friday and remember just to drive this point home I'm not saying Friday is like okay Friday morning 9, 30. this is the Futures Market Friday which is technically Thursday night at 6 PM So to get close there, it'd probably be close to 4 pm as the market closed Thursday night if you're using it on spy or SPX but whatever. Play it however you want. I'm more talking about a seasonal pattern for the overall market so you could play it however you want.

you could play it in Futures you complaining options. You can play it on the overall Market It's up to you. I'm just trying to point out something that's happened historically and actually the way this has played out historically. 76 of the time this trade wins.

and when I say this trade, I mean going short on tdom6 the sixth trading day, that's your trigger. So technically when the Market opens on Friday and once again, do that however you want your max hold time is two and you are looking to get out after the first profitable close. So there's two ways to get out. There's one way to get in, two ways to get out.

The way you get in is when the Market opens on the seventh trading day of the month of June you go short. That's how you get it. Then the way you get out is one of two ways you're short Friday when the Market opens when it closes. If you're already profitable, you take that money and you go on and enjoy your weekend.

If you're not, you hold it for a second day. So there's two ways to get out your first profitable close or a Max hold time of two days. This, historically over the past 25 years worth of data has won 70 six percent of the time. Roughly three out of four times this will win.

Your average trade is 482 dollars, your average winning period is 730, Your average losing trade is 306. Your profit factor is 7.56 as in every dollar spent has returned 7.56 This is obviously not perfect. I Am not sitting here guaranteeing you that this is gonna work because we know 24 of the time it hasn't worked based on 25 different years worth of data, but three out of four times, 76 percent of the time. Specifically, it does work.

And obviously the winning trades are considerably larger than the losing trades. So I'm sitting here I'm not guaranteeing it, but I'm saying the odds are in the favor of the Bears at the end of this week. Specifically Friday and I just want to get the exact date for you the 9th and also somewhat favoring you on Monday the 12th the Bears face On my research. The historic evidence will most likely be in control Friday of this week and potentially even Monday not guaranteeing it I'm just saying it with roughly a 7 35 accuracy.

So once again, this is a bearish short trade. You get in when the Market opens on Friday which is in the Futures Market is technically Thursday evening. So if you want this in the Spy SPX once again, just to really drive this home because there was confusion last time, the closest time you could get to it is basically Market close on Thursday then you hold it to one of two things: You hold it for two full days or if your very first day is a profitable close for you, you would take your money right there. And like I said, go on to the weekend.

I Hope that makes sense if it doesn't. If I confuse anyone obviously I would love to talk to you I Would love to clarify because I Think this type of seasonality training is relatively easy and it's one of my favorite types of training. So I want to make sure we're kind of all on the same page with it, so if there's any questions, comments, concerns. If you need any clarification, don't hesitate to reach out.

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