W R I'm Batman I'm I'm Batman I'm I'm Batman Batman I'm Batman I like bats bats I'm a weird guy who's really into Bats Bats Bats Bats Bats Bats Well anyway, that drug on for a little bit too long, folks. happy Monday I Hope you're having a beautiful Monday morning, evening, afternoon, night, whatever time it is for you. but I hope you are having a great Monday June The 5th We're waiting for another funfilled week in the stock market the First full trading week of June and I want to talk about it I Want to talk about my thoughts, my opinions I Want to get some of your thoughts, some of your opinions on everything going down because last week the Bulls were in control. Talk about the end of May beginning of June the Bulls were destroying we were Rip City bottom left to the top right and it just made me feel pretty good that I was born into a dark poool I Know many of you know about dark dark pools, and many of you were most likely molded by dark pools.

but a lot of my trading methodology comes from the fact that I was born into dark pools. I Know you guys are going to understand that I Know you're very much going to understand that and that's what we're here to talk about. All the craziness in the market, All the craziness within the dark pools, All the craziness probably even outside of the market I Guess before we get into really, the week ahead of the major macroeconomic events, what's going on with earnings? What's going on with seasonality? What's going on just in the new cycle? I Just want to see how you guys are I Want to make sure you had a great weekend I Want to make sure that you guys were being safe if not I hope you were having boatloads of fun I myself ended up going to Upstate New York and I did a couple hikes and man oh man am I just a little fatty I was huffing and puffing. my legs are still sore and I don't get why because I've been crushing the stair stepper like it's my job.

like people in the gym think my job is to get paid to crush the stair stepper because that's how often I do it. and then yet something about these hikes like they were just like dude, they were like just straight up and they were miles and miles long and uh, my legs are definitely feeling it using some apparently using some muscles that I haven't used in a while and uh, highlight of it was I Got to see some rattlesnakes just out in the wild. Uh so that was. that was interesting I don't know if I've ever seen a rattlesnake out in the wild uncaged like just chilling there like we were hiking and said warning rattlesnakes in the area like be careful, they're not your friends.

Don't try to pet them, don't try to name them, Don't try to treat them like they're Pokemon you will not be able to put them in your pokeballs. So they had like all these various warnings and we were walking, walking, walking and then out of nowhere. There's just a like. it wasn't big but it wasn't small.

it's like a just a medium-sized rattlesnake just chilling just enjoying enjoying the day. I Suppose it wasn't even like sunny or anything. Uh, it was actually kind of like rainy and overcast and the snake was just chilling. And then the snake had a smaller buddy snake that was there and he looked a little bit more tired.

Maybe she I don't know I don't know how to tell the genders between different snakes. Uh, but yeah. so we saw two of those snakes. That was pretty cool.

Um, there was also a bunch of warnings for black bear in the area now. Huge bummer. didn't see any black bear I feel I know there's like all of those I guess almost studies. They've done questionnaires.

they've asked people of like what animals do you think you could take in a fight and a surprising percentage of people still think that they could take like a grizzly bear in a fight something like I don't know 2 three 8% something crazy like cuz no one could ever take any grizzly bear in a fight. but I think of it this way of out of all bears I think I have the best chance of befriending a black bear. um they they just seem more friendly. they seem a little bit more docile.

they seem a little bit more domesticated. They seem just kind of like a overgrown grumpy like lab or something like that like a Puffy Fluffy dog. So I wanted to see a bear a bear cub which I know that would be more dangerous cuz most likely the mom's close by. but if I explain to Mom hey I'm Matt you probably know my like Finance Channel like I talk about content like I feel like I would be able to reason with the mom that I'm in fact not a predator and it would be cool if I hung out with her cub.

so so that thought crashed my mind but never happened. So some cool hikes Upstate New York folks if you're in the upstate New York area you live in an awesome area. It's beautiful, tons of hikes I was right near Hunter Mountain uh pretty cool place I stay at this Airbnb thing and the guy who was running the Airbnb uh he had some wild stories like you know how you could just tell some people are like characters. Right away we started talking to this guy I was like dude this guy like for sure has some stories and I really thought what it was going to be was more of the long of like hey like I'm a super outdoorsy dude I've hiked everything I've skied everything I've snowshoed everything I thought it was going to be like really outdoorsy that wasn't him at all uh we were talking about hikes and he's like yeah no generally I just don't like if there's like a lake or something nearby I just like sit there and wait for my friends to hike it but he had like the super outdoorsy Vibe and I was like dude like what's your story then so the at the Airbnb or like kind of this like bed and breakfast type of vibe place.

they had a bar downstairs so he was the bartender and also the guy running the hotel and also maintenance and he's just kind of the guy who did everything and I was talking to him I like what' you do and he was uh according to him a male model like I'm saying potentially straight out of Zoolander this guy was like yeah I was like a male model in the 90s and early 2000s. Uh, hit it pretty well and now I just don't want to do like any of the pictures Social Media stuff so there's no social media anything. This guy was like allegedly like a top tier world renowned male model and now he's like yeah now I just kind of bartend here and run this like bed and breakfast. Uh, he had some wild wild stories.

Really cool guy Chris If you're watching right now, it just like that other. Chris from the guy where we learn all about like can I blow your mind right now we found our own Chris on this channel and our Chris happens to be a male model so our Chris exact same level as the other. Chris Today is my 50th birthday. Everyone shout out to Jth Woods Obviously has been here for two years, the victor of some of our trivia competitions in the past turning the Big 5 everyone.

Uh, shout out to Jth Woods Happy Birthday I Hope you had a great weekend I'm sure you celebrated I Hope you crush some sangria from me I hope you're crushing it throughout the week to celebrate. Congrats Congrats, Congrats! I Also have this one so you're telling me you saw Ken Griin while hiking. Our minds were literally blown a snake. That's a good one.

What's going on GTA folks I Hope you had a good weekend. Uh, we're kind of easing into it. Yes, we do have to talk about the Old Ston Market Yes, you got to show a little bit of love to today's stream sponsor I'm talking about Street be they are pinned at the top of chat. they're in the description of the video they are in my humble opinion, which is probably the only opinion you should care about.

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So show them a little bit of love. Dumb question: didn't Tesla go past a th000 before on Robin Hood shows it never made it past the 400 alternative. Universe Maybe no, uh because of stock splits. They're going to uh, retroactively change the prices for you when they goes through either a stock split or reverse stock split.

Uh, we've seen that in the past so it was all the way up there. but now Tesla's done multiple stock splits so it's a lesser value. If they never did that, Tesla would probably be multiple thousand dollars right now. So they retroactively fix the prices for you whenever it goes through a stock split or a reverse stock split.

Great question. Great question. Just want to say it's 5 months for the third time. The Robbie So just 5 time, three, so essentially 15.

Then right? Is that how it works out? I Think that's how it works out. All right Folks Folks Folks Folks Folks Folks folks. folks. Team team team team team team.

it is that time. Again, we should talk a little bit about the stock market because it's about to open up in less than 20 minutes. It's a beautiful Monday Well, I hope it's a beautiful Monday where you are but Hey Whenever we're together, it's going to end up becoming a beautiful Monday Because this is the digital community that we have going on. Shout out to all the Goonies in here.

Much much appreciation. Uh, well. much appreciated. Uh, don't forget to destroy the like button.

Don't forget to subscribe. We're right now on Rumble we're on YouTube and the stream's even rocking on Twitter right now if you prefer that. The best. So we're currently live in three different locations.

Check it out. Check it out. Check it out. Actually, that reminds me I Need There's a couple things I can do to fix up the old um Twitter stream and I need to remind myself to do that today.

All right, All right, All right, let's get into it so the market. Let's just take a quick step back and let me show you the overall market. We've been Rip City ever since Wednesday May 24th We went from 411 all the way up to 428. In fact, Friday's high was 42874.

Remember I was talking 428 430 432 I Think the Market's really really going to struggle above 430 I Really do Just because at this point, think about it this way. at least this is how I think about it. I Would love to get your thoughts and your opinions. We've been moving because of a slew of good, positive bullish news.

The debt ceiling figured out. that's really the major thing of why we were going last week. Also, when it comes to inflation and the Fed and hiking the rate right now, because of recent Fed commentary, there's a greater chance than not around a 70% chance that we're going to pause in the June meeting. which is next week.

Just so everyone knows, next week, Fomc meeting starts on Tuesday concludes on Wednesday We get the results at 2 p.m. then Jerome Pal will be stream like he'll be doing his live press conference at 2:30 Um, obviously all in ET That's for next week, not this week. But anyway, that's a positive development because the Fed's taking a breather. They're's not going to keep pushing down uh, as aggressively they're pausing.

They're not cutting, they're not raising. Right now, the odds are telling us that they're just going sideways. So right there, that's two pretty big bullish things. And that's why the markets RI from 411 all the way up to 428 and some change.

So then the question question here is, well, what else could possibly happen that's going to keep this going and obviously positive things could be announced at any moment in time. But right now, there's nothing evident at least on my radar saying yeah, no like this could go this way. This could go that way I'm not really seeing any big macro events or any big earnings or anything like that that could really continue to propel this Market higher. Just because we've been going up, doesn't mean we have to keep going up.

and I think we're running out of Catalyst I think the next big thing is actually next week with the Fomc meeting this week. If anything, I think it's going to be more of the classic of uh, chopping up and down I think we're going to maybe individual equities like because we've seen, uh, a lot of AI stocks rip last week, so maybe we're going to take a bit of a breather. Maybe we're going to sell off this week? Uh, I have an update for you with oil. Oil is now ripping because of what? Saudi Arabia Really? OPEC But particularly Saudi Arabia They decided to cut production by another million barrels.

so now we see oil popping trade at 73, it was recently at 67. So there might be some individual opportunities here. But in terms of the overall, Market I think we're kind of getting up to a peaky zone now. Obviously that's not a guarantee.

I I'm not. Clairvoyant I Can't tell you definitively what's going to happen, but what I can tell you is the Market's ripped a lot. We're running out of catalyst events, so I think we're getting up to a big resistance level. We're running out of things that could keep propelling it.

So I'm starting to be a little bit more cautious and on that note, just in case you're not a member of the locals: Community the only position I have on right now. Well I always forget about my wall calls. so like excluding those is really that netflixing. um I locked in my Tesla profits I locked in my spy profits.

Uh, what else did I have I locked in my target profits and I locked in my Nvidia loss I tried to fade Nvidia I was a little bit too early so then I went long I was Revenge training I doubled down so then it started to actually fall and I just like complet completely messed myself up. It was an awful trade and so I just cut that to come back to this week fresh. The only thing I have on right now are my long datting Netflix calls. That's the only real live position I have at this moment of time and it's just because I was really happy with the profits on Friday we called out Friday at the start of last week Tuesday of last week I said hey, the end of this week I think it's going to be pretty bullish I got in on Thursday wrote it for most of the day Thursday wrote it for most of the day on Friday and that's it I don't want to be greedy I had nice gains.

the Spy calls were up over 200% I locked in the final ones at like 250 260% Is it still going now? Yeah, it looks like it. but I don't need to be greedy. Those are great great gains. and I'm just looking for the next reasonable risk to reward opportunity.

so that's a little bit of a preview of maybe where we're going. A little bit of a recap of what happened last week, but let's get into things a little bit more specifically, just so we're more comfortable with the Bell going. Dingy ding ding ding today Stock Features are little changed after the S&P 500 best week since March Now even if you think it's going to get going or continue going I should say does that mean it's a good time to enter now? Well, it's kind of up to you. It's kind of up to your time frame obviously.

like are you day trading? Are you swing trading? Are you investing? So you have to consider that. But most importantly, you need to consider your risk reward. So for example, even if I was absurdly bullish, if I'm like hey, like I think this company's going to do that or this event's going to go this way, Would I necessarily swing long right now? Well, we're trading at 428 I see serious resistance at 430 and at 432 and what's my risk level all the way down at 416? So even if I was biased in the bullish direction, that doesn't necessarily mean we we have like a solid entry right here because we we're taking on more risk than we are potential reward and even if the odds are high. yeah, maybe it pays off this time, but to trade in that style time and time again, eventually you're going to end up not hitting your reward.

Your risk is is going to come to fruition. and then all of a sudden all the gains that you've made doing this type of trade just kind of blow up in your face. So I Get it. I See the momentum.

We're red, white and blue. We have the breakout. We have good news. everything's looking good.

but I don't want to buy just below risk I don't want to buy just below resistance when it's this far away from like my support level if it gets smacked here at 430 432 am. I Really going to risk 416 So with that being said, if I do anything this week, especially in the first half of this week, it's probably just going to be like going for a single going for a quick little day trade. Maybe I could get my 10 15, 20% get in, get out, and like just move on to the next thing. But even that I think this is more at least for me.

kind of a risk off week. Maybe if I see some of these AI names start to break down, maybe I'll bet against them Once again, if I could get a good reward and risk ratio set up. but it it's always that keep that in mind just because we see something having momentum in the bullish direction as in going green or in the the bearish direction going r That doesn't necessarily mean you should enter it. Sometimes you're going to see strong momentum plays, but you just cannot anchor to a reasonable risk level.

All of it's been going green majorly because of this: Biden signs debt sealing Bill Avoiding a catastrophic economic default President Joe Biden On Friday discussed a bipartisan agreement to lift the debt ceiling just days before the treasury estima the government would run out of money. He signed the compromised debt ceiling bill into law on Saturday averting a catastrophic default. So the Market's been going up on this and I still find that to be a little bit funny just because we're always told the Market's so efficient. All news is almost instantaneously priced in and yet the market ripped from 416 all the way up to almost 430 on the fact that something got signed into the law which we all kind of knew was going to get signed into the law.

So is the market efficient? Not really. Uh, there's obviously inefficiencies and sometimes there's lag, which is good for us because that means that there's opportunity fed skip a hike. Strategy is sensible, risky, and confusing. So this is the second thing in the kind of I don't know dessert pie we have going on of why the Bulls have been dominating.

Number one: Great. We're not going to default. Number two, the FED taking a breather, not being so dramatic or aggressive in their hawkishness I.E them pushing down on the economy usion that regardless of what the data is. regardless of the jobs report we get tomorrow, they are not going to hike rates.

This month, they're going to try to Signal It doesn't mean that they're done, but basically they are not data dependent for this particular meeting. I Think the data would have to be very, very strong to convince them to move at the at the June meeting. Uh, they basically are concerned about the long lags of mod policy and that should that belief should not be influenced by the strength of the data. So I'd be very surprised at this point, especially given Philip Jefferson's remarks yesterday that that that they would actually go ahead and tighten at the June meeting.

But July seems you know almost likely at this point. So right there that was. The other big piece of news from last week was basically I could show you it numerically as well: 77 77% chance of no rate hike next week? Uh, we're currently at 5% So they're basically saying hey, uh, four out of five times in this current situation, we're thinking that they're not going to do anything, but it does get interesting. So that's for June Which, uh, obviously right now the odds are suggestive of the fact that we are going to pause.

But if you go to the June or excuse me, that's the June meeting the July meeting. Actually, we're putting in over a 60% chance that there's going to be some sort of rate hike in the June meeting, so just want to. or EXC I'm very much confusing the June July As of now, the odds are we do nothing in June I'm sure they'll give us some sort of commentary, blah blah blah blah blah. but when you fast forward to July the next one after, so we have it on June 14th next week and then you go to the end of July and you're going to notice here that there's a 50% chance of a 25 bips, A 14% chance of a 50 bips.

So overall, almost a 70% chance of some sort of rate hike in the July meeting. So we're in this strange situation where they're like, okay, pretty much we're going to a bit of a pause see how things shake out. Obviously, they don't want any more Banks to collapse or anything like that. But then when we get to July the odds are increasing because clearly by some of the economic reports, our economy is still running hot.

As in, inflation is still there. it's still prevalent. It might be sticky. Well, some of the aspects of it are definitively sticky, and they need to definitely get in control of that.

So they're trying. Well, this is the whole soft Landing argument of like they're trying to bring the plane down. Unfortunately, there's like a massive, massive massive thunderstorm going on, so it is definitely a difficult problem without a doubt. And it does seem as of now and things could change because don't forget, next week we are getting more inflation reports and that type of thing.

If inflation comes in brutally high on Tuesday Yeah, they might take that into account. But if anything, the most recent grouping of inflation reports have actually been pretty good. We're not in terms of magnitude where we want to be, but we are trending down. so uh, good progression.

But obviously the magnitude of the reading is something we still don't want. So if it all of a sudden reverses course back upward as inflation's higher than expected bad magnitude. Yeah, that will come into play. but just going off of the recent batch of them, we haven't really been seeing that.

So this, as of now this week, the debt ceiling is now. officially it's old news. it's done in terms of what's going on with the Fed. Well, that kind of comes up till next week.

and this week, if anything, they're in their blackout period. They don't talk really the week before the two weeks leading into it, technically, so we're not going to be hearing anything from Fed officials this week. The most recent commentary is that they're going to pause and that's exactly why the odds are almost 75% of no rate hike. Come next week.

Once again, not this week. So the other thing that's majorly in the news now is oil. U Commodities We haven't talked about them much lately, but there's some interesting explosive moves to the upside in the world of: Black Gold Oil prices rise after Saudi Arabia pledges more voluntary production Cuts OPEC Plus Pumps approximately 40% of the world's crude and policy decisions can have a significant impact on prices. The world's top oil exporter Saudi Arabia Announced further voluntary output cuts which will be implemented from July The Kingdom's output will decline to 9 million barrels per day from around 10 million.

so it's a 1 million Barrel per day cut. Um, Sai's energy Ministry said in a statement and we kind of knew this I covered a little bit of it last week of how they were basically saying they better watch out I Believe he said, anyone like bet like betting that oil's going to drop, you better watch out Like he was literally signaling the ministry. The prince was signaling to the world like you better watch out And then they had a meeting in Vienna over the weekend and they announced that and now oils up so he was really, really telegraphing what was going to go on there. Saudi Arabia Lowering output by an extra million barrels per day for July WTI jumps almost 5% in an early trade after pairing gains.

Really interesting. The Saudi Arabia again taking the burden while the rest of the group did nothing. Yeah, and that alone is a surprise. And that wording that the Saudis will do whatever it takes really is what's pushing oil higher at this moment.

Uh, it is all about protecting the price of oil. The take away basically, they want At80 Barrel is that Saudi Arabia down. After those previous cuts which caught the market by surprise just two months ago, failed to deliver a sustained price rally, so we've got Saudi Arabia reducing output by an additional 1 million barrels a day beginning in July and that's taking its production by the way, to the lowest level in several years. Uh, the Saudis had to seed important ground in two of its biggest allies: Russia would made no commitment to cut output deeper or we could take a look at how oil prices you get.

The idea they cut it from the output was 10 million barrels per day. Now it's 9 million and that's going to be getting Rock in July And obviously on that news, we saw a pretty sizable pop in oil oil going from 67 and some change all the way. as high as 75 currently is 73 and some change potentially a breakout coming soon. Uh, I'd be watching that 75 level and if it does maybe re like a reversion up to 80.

But oil for the longest time? really? From November until now, it's a large range, but range bound nonetheless. Uh, we just haven't been seeing an nice Trend in it. So for those of you who are maybe paying attention to Exxon Chevron oxy if you're bullish on them, well this popping oil should be pretty solid for you, so just something to pay attention to. Now we are kind of officially out of earning season, but there are still some earnings reports and announcements this week.

dve Busters is after the market closes Tomorrow we have some Cracker Barrel we have some alies we have some Campbell Soup we have some GameStop we have docu sign we have Neo so feel free to screenshot this. Feel free to check out at e Whispers But like I said, earning season is essentially done. There's no more even close to Mega cap names reporting. so maybe you have some of these stocks like individually for you.

which obviously you should be paying attention to them, but just judging off what I see in chat and whatnot. I would assume that GameStop Gme is probably the most unpopular on this list this week. Maybe a little bit of Neo but I just want you to know all about that. Now in terms of macroeconomic reports: today, at 9:45 15 minutes into the trading day, we do get the PMI report and then at 10:00 A.m.

we get ISM and Factory orders. Nothing too too crazy there. in terms of seasonality, today does slightly favor the Bears the Bulls of 144% the profit factor is 69, Uh, slightly favors the Bears If we look just to give you a little bit of a preview for the remainder of the week tomorrow, it does slightly favor the Bulls Wednesday slightly favors the Bulls, Thursday is completely neutral, and then Friday more noteworthy favors the bear, so it kind of goes little bit bullish, little bit bullish, little bit bullish, nothing too crazy, clearly neutral, and then clearly favoring the Bears. that's the order of Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday this week from his seasonality perspective for today Individually, on top of this seasonality, I Just want you to know that Apple has a big event, most likely a new VR headset that starts at 10:00 a.m.

on the west coast which is what 100 p.m. on the East Coast. So they're going to be streaming it, but it's the Worldwide Developer Conference. So a lot of people expecting announcements related to just where Apple's going.

they have a state of the Union so lots of Apple movement and that's actually why Apple's looking pretty good in pre-market cuz people are pretty excited about it. Currently trading at 18253 in terms of intraday trading like the actual trading hour is 9:30 to 4 Apple's high is 18294. It gets a 3 trillion doll market cap somewhere in the 183s. Apple's never officially hit it, but it's coming very very close.

A little later on after the Bell goes Ding and ding ding ding I want to talk about Target Budweiser what's going on there and I also want to share some thoughts from Morgan Stanley of how they're kind of going against the grain. Warning people that we're actually closer to having a drop than we are. A continuation to the upside. Uh, I'm not saying I necessarily agree, but I just want you to know what some of the big wigs are saying.

Hoping to avoid a June Swoon I mean from a seasonal perspective June is really choppy and then the last week is kind of bearish. So this time we have been pumping so maybe we're going to Buck the trend. but hang on. Obviously we're only a couple days into trading oil.

get to boots. We covered that news from Apple w WDC 23 that is going to be starting at 1: p.m. ET Today Friendly neighborhood box office hit the new Spider-Man doing pretty well $1 122 million in domestic ticket sales so they're doing pretty solid and then uh, of course there's just always going to be tension tense times near Taiwan So this involves a Us and China And there there was like ships and one had to slow down and the other one didn't and it things got a little bit tense and obviously the US thinks they're in the right. try to thinks they're in the right.

So maybe just something to pay attention to not only on the political scale but also uh, maybe even in the world of semiconductors, there could be some Ripple effects. Now here's the plan for today. First of all, dingy ding ding Ding! The casino is open. Best of luck to all.

Play responsibly if not, have fun Now while we are waiting for the first 5 10 15 minutes to play out. uh just to see what's really going on today. Uh I Want to let you know today Stream Sponsor Streety pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. By far the easiest way to start using AI as your co-pilot buddy in your trading career experience, job.

Whatever you want to call it, download Street be to your iPhone Download Street be to your Android It is free to download. You could check it out, you could buy and sell stock as you normally would, but if you also want To use AI to generate strategies just uh like. Overall, be your co-pilot in your trading experience. Uh I I Recommend that you check it out.

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So Tesla's ripping right here. Obviously I'm a little bummed about that because I did have some nice Tesla calls but I didn't like the price action of how we concluded on Friday like I didn't like this choppiness. so I just took all my profits I was up like 20 30% So as of now my only real live position is the Netflix calls and uh I got rid of everything else. Actually I could just show you right here.

I Locked in a bunch of my tendies from Friday uh the Spy calls the target puts, uh, the Tesla calls. there was more Tesla calls. There was actually more spy calls. uh and then Nvidia call that I got destroyed on.

So the only thing I have right now is Netflix strike price 450 July 21st Uh, open Pnl pretty much Break Even Uh, this one. obviously it's a bit of. it's a swing play. it's for July uh I It's nothing in the short term.

it's not a day trade anything like that I just plan on actually swinging this one so that's all I currently have. Um, I'm not I'm trying to be a little bit more disciplined. Stick to my rules. Uh, obviously I wish I swung some of my Tesla but hey, on the flip side, if I saw it gapping down today which I thought there was a greater chance of things gapping down than gapping up.

Obviously I was wrong, but I would have been more mad to let my profits disappear rather than missing out on profits. That's a very important question that everyone should ask themselves, especially when you're considering of how to handle maybe the exit or the the swing carry risk of a trade. What frustrates you more missing out on profits like extra profits? Let's say you're up 10% Let's say it gaps up and you would have gotten another 10. Does that make you more frustrated? or does it make you more frustrated to be up 10% You waited and now all of a sudden you're losing money for me personally.

and I'm not saying there's a right or wrong answer, but for me personally I get more frustrated and it puts me more on tilt if I'm up money and then I take on some risk and I end up losing money now on the trade. Uh, there's obviously Tesla's a real-time example of me thinking ah, like okay, I could have had more money if I waited. but I get over that. Like mentally, that one doesn't mess me up as much as I when I'm up money I do something and then I give all that money back.

It's that case that really messes with me. so I just do what I can to particularly avoid that. particularly avoid that. What broker do I use for options? That's a great question I actually use multiple um so I use Weeble just more so Weeble I know a lot of you use it so it makes it like uh I suppose better when I'm trying to just be like oh, here's how I set things up or whatever just like technical platform questions um I interactive brokers uh I also have TD and Mar trade or technically thinker swim is um, but it's owned by TD Uh, so those are the ones that I use right now.

uh for futures I use trade station for crypto I have my own wallets. That's pretty much it I suppose uh, it wo to go red Steve you are spoton with that spot on. Speaking of that, I know, technically we're already a couple minutes into the day, but what's everyone's major Vibe for today? Uh, obviously we had a what's it a barn burner. What did? what was Rick saying a barn burner? Yeah, we had a barn burner uh, of a week last week.

Uh, the Bulls just clearly clearly clearly dominated. Uh, but I want to get your thoughts on everything of where are we going today, where we go this week. My major prediction is a lot of chop and then maybe a bit of a selloff as we get to the end of the week. and I'm going to give the way I did a call out trade last week.

I'm going to do it again and I'll give you the tldr right now now is basically right when the Market opens on Friday if you're in the Futures Market or right when the market closes on Thursday if you're in the equities Market trading something like spy uh, go short and then the strategy is basically hold for at Max two days. but if your very first day is already profitable, you would take your profits and not even go into the second day. but that starts either at Market close on Thursday if you're in the equities Market or market open on Thursday night technically Friday if you're in the Futures market and once again, this this is a bearish bet for the end of the week. I'm calling it out now in a little bit.

I'll give you all the stats, odds and figures related to that particular trade, but I can tell you now it has a 75 76% accuracy. This works three out of every four times tracked over the past 2 and a half decades and once again, it's a bearish bet right when the Market's closing on Thursday if you're in the equities Market or right when the Market opens up again Thursday night. SL Friday Technically it's Friday uh if you're in the Futures Market but that's a bearish bet for later on this week. Uh, right now, the Market's looking pretty strong.

My support level is 428. Uh, the next thing I'm watching is actually 4:30 in terms of Target And then after that, 4:32 Uh, my only play is right here. Netflix Obviously I wish I swung a little bit of Tesla open but hey, not going to cry over spilled milk. Oh whoa whoa whoa.

Who? Who? Everyone shut up for a second. Shut your mouth. Tell your if your manager talking to you, if your student are talking to you, if your loved ones are talking to you, everyone shut your mouth. Do you know what? I just found out.

Do you guys know the saying um, blood is thicker than water. Apparently we are all literally using that. Perfectly wrong. So or maybe you guys are just smarter than me which actually probably has some Merit in that argument.

So at least the way I was using it when I hear blood is thicker than water, it means that like no matter what happens, you treat your family better than you do someone who's not your family cuz blood as in your familial blood is thicker than water and then you start to think to yourself, well that doesn't make sense What does like the thickness of water have to do here? Apparently we're all saying it wrong and we're all using it wrong. The actual saying is a bit longer. So the way I always heard of growing up was blood is thicker than water and I and many people in my life interpreted that to me that like you're going to be more more loyal to your family than you are anyone else. But apparently the real saying is the blood of the Covenant is thicker than the water of the womb.

And the meaning of that the blood of the Covenant as in your friends, like the people that you have social contracts with is thicker than the water of the womb. As in we've been saying it all completely wrong. like we're actually the we've been saying it perfectly opposite. It's it's more of the people that you have that social contract with.

That's where your loyalty lies. And it is thicker than the water of the room of someone who's just arbitrarily your family. So that's something I've learned recently. and maybe if you don't learn anything from me today related to finance, trading, the market, uh, you at least learned that that We all say that wrong blood is thicker than water.

We're using that literally in the exact opposite way. The real saying is the blood of the Covenant is thicker than the water of the womb. So there you go Now, no matter what, you guys have to be happy today because you learned something. and I think it was worthwhile.

Uh, that you told everyone in your life to shut up. You know this. English Lesson is brought to you by Cheit. Honestly, Cheit should sponsor some of our do you think we could marryam Webster as an official sponsor of this channel.

folks, if we keep just dming Mariam Webster on Twitter Do you think one day they'll sponsor us? Is that why you made me do a do the blood path? Do you mean oath I don't think you mean blood path there Robbie I think you mean Blood Oath But no I I like to do Blood Oath just because it's fun. Next thing you'll tell me Texas Roadhouse is not better than McDonald's I mean it obviously is Dean Don't worry about that one. Don't worry about that one. Are you going to invest in Ripple stock when they go public? Uh John I need to look into it I Can't fairly comment on it because I don't know much of the situation I read a couple of like I guess some Twitter articles and just Tweets in general about it.

Um I need to look into it I don't want to lead anyone in the bullish direction bearish direction when I have not properly like vetted all the information myself. Uh, so I'm going to have to check all of that out. but I will I will I will. It's actually on my list of things to do Nvidia Ripping.

So uh, I wanted to wait a little bit. Okay when 9:45 hits I think that's when we should hop into some chart review here of the major movers. To the upside to the downside, all that type of stuff. but uh, Nvidia is still on my watch list for a breakdown trade.

Uh I want to bet against Nvidia and I know you might be thinking but Matt didn't you do that and it cost you a lot of money? Yeah it did, but this time I'm once again setting up in a realistic risk to reward manner. This is what I see on Nvidia I see first of all, nice reward Gap fill all the way down to 306. The question is can you get into it with reasonable risk and I'm watching this trend line breakdown. Obviously at this point my risk would be 405 which is roughly Nvidia being worth a trillion dollars I think that's 44 and some change but I'm just waiting for breakdown opportunity that I can get in within optimal risk reward setup.

It hasn't come yet. If anything, it's obviously showing strength today bouncing off of this trend line. so it's still just kind of choppy in its own region. But it is 100% on my watch list, 100% on my watch list.

So waiting on that one in terms of I I actually have a like, uh, some breakdown on some other things as well. Uh, on the cues. I'm watching for this trend line to kind of get snap, but the Q's actually just made a new Fresh recent local Maxima uh I mean the Q's are just just dominating The Q's are actually seemingly going for this upside Gap fill. So for those of you paying attention to the Q's you might be want to watching 35993.

Let me switch this to Green Just so you know, it's an upside Gapville, but that would be my target level I have no Q position. If I did have a Q position, I would be watching 35993 and I would probably just continually be risking the recent low. Maybe if you're up big money and you want to risk a bit more I'd be watching 34650. Just this recent low, you could always risk Friday's whatever.

but my target would be 35993. Which is the upside Gap fill from all the way back here in April of 22 once again on the Q's QQQ if you're a tech, Trader 35993 would be my next upside Target in Nvidia we talked about that. looking for the breakdown wall was looking good this morning. got smacked hard.

That makes me sad. Uh, you have Microsoft it's just a runaway train similar to Apple uh AI Is there a breakdown opportunity on this? Not yet yet. but AI is may be starting to look a little heavy I'm looking for the crack below 31 I'm looking for the crack below 30. Uh, might have some downside opportunity on AI Just because when they reported their earnings, it was no blowout upward projection for their expectations.

It was pretty much they just annualized their last quarter's uh, revenue and the market obviously was looking for something quite a bit better, especially on the runup into their earnings. So uh, no position there yet. But watching for this breakdown of these three Wicks Apple Oh, did it I Think it officially hit the three trilly? or was it 183 it? As soon as it clears 184, Apple is officially worth three trilly. Uh, it's somewhere in the 183s so uh, we're kind of dancing around in that region.

Dude, there's a lot of bulls in the market today. This is getting nuts. Look at this. Nvidia pumping straight up Netflix That's a little bit of a swing trade for me.

You have Apple holding. Does anyone know it off the top of their head of what Apple has to be? It's like 183 I Want to say like 18370 183? Maybe 60, maybe 80? We're really close. Apple Almost worth three trillion. Do how crazy is that to say? How crazy is that? Uh, these Wicks just so you know, are not real prints.

Uh, they're just like I guess cleaning up something. but if you look in the Futures Market we didn't abnormal spikes like that. uh, we just saw a nice Trend to the upside look at this. red, white and blue all stacked up nicely.

clearly the and it's even peeling away. that's some bullish momentum. uh for me, if I were to take advantage of this I would wait for it to come back down into the exponential moving averages I would want to see a bottoming pattern and then I would try to ride it back up. but I'd be careful here.

we're at a key level 4,300 and then also if you look at the Spy I mean it's starting to it like looks funky today, but there's big resistance at 430 and then again at 432. so just be careful. That's why we scale in. That's why we scale out.

You don't have to go all in at once, all at what is going on today. Apple or excuse me the overall: Market These one minute bars are looking funky. Um, but Apple Str Strong holding Nvidia may be turning right here. wall got smacked hard.

What else is there? Rum chilling just below 10. That's kind of just where it's been pinned to recently. if we check out Crypto Bitcoin recently vomit just holding uh 26.7k and then you have eth trading at 1870 as of now. but uh, a vomit over the like in the overnight session essentially.

uh, apple picking up I think I think we're going to hit that three trilli if if it hasn't already, but it, it's definitely looking strong. Nvidia showing some dude what is going on with the Spy I know we just got that report. What are they saying about it Kramer this is just I know know you're going to say Overkill but Jensen directly Targets this and says that there's no more latency unders. If there is no more latency, that would be an important move in terms of letting these things be on the cloud we you don't need, right? CU you've got the Tesla sh some strength match my first Tes Call The Runner 925 locals paid for forever.

Shout out Steve group of Pmis that will be coming out ISM coming out in half of the hour. Global read was 55.1 now becomes 54.9 but like its predecessor before the revision, they this is the best level of 22. Let's go to the composite shall we? Our mid-mon read: 54.5 Our final read: 54.3 and like services, that is still the best level going back to April Market Internals very Neal Durable goods And as I pointed out, ISM Pmis at top of the hour and Squawk on the street will return after a very short break Shout Out Rick the Bond report brought to you by Pimco Brought to you by Pimpos. All right, don't need that for right now.

but Market Looking super strange today. like the one minute chart? Very very strange. Everyone stoked about Apple And what's going to happen at this worldwide Developer conference? Uh, it starts at 10:00 A.m. on the west coast, so it's going to be 100 P.m.

here, right? 10 11 12 1. Yeah, so 1 P.m. ET if you're on the East Coast Uh, so that's why there's so much just excitement enthusiasm with Apple. Uh, lot of predictions of what they're going to say about their headset.

particularly. will they actually be able to make VR a viable business segment? Cuz we're seeing a lot of companies recently fail in. What is going on with the Spy Is the Spy drunk? I Just the Spy has been all over the map today and I find it a bit concerning. All right, Nvidia may be shown a little bit of weakness now.

What does anyone know? Does anyone know if it's been drunk over here? Uh. 3K for the Fe Freaking. VR Uh I think that's the most expensive version of it Byy Texas Roadhouse not the stock, but on dinner celebrating 10 years of sobriety today, wife asked how I wanted to celebrate and I told her I wanted a locals annual subscription Joe Seriously Massive. Congratulations 10 years of sobriety today! Ah Joe If you don't mind me asking, what do you think is the biggest change you've noticed in your life from before when you weren't sober to now, obviously a decade of sobriety.

Do you think it's like a physical health thing? A mental health thing? A familial relationship? like where? where do you think is like the the biggest differential that you've noticed that you've uh, decided to live your life a little bit more straight Lac Babes do date almost here first baby girl Jose About to have his first baby girl. Definitely in my thoughts and prayers man, everyone's getting excited C Celebrated 7 years clean and sober yesterday. Mental clarity: everyone's having a good one. everyone's having a good one is June Just our month team is June the month of being a goon Should we just forever know that June is the month that The Goonies like really crush it.

Mental health for sure not waking up with regrets and positive outlook on life? Dude, that is awesome. Good for you I Hope you very very much enjoy your Texas Roadhouse get a half rack or a full rack of ribs. That's the way to go man. And obviously don't eat all day just so you can fill up on the bread when you get there.

Just keep shoving that cinnamon butter bread cinnamon buttered bread into your mouth. Any new updates on AMC I I Haven't really been paying attention to it? Uh, I think Adam Aaron and AMC just lost a pretty like a certain ruling in a case I think they just lost I don't know I haven't really checked it out. um the the people who are like still continually driving it down other people's throat on Twitter I I Just don't care about that Community I think they're charlatans I don't think they know what they're talking about I think they're very, very sad people I've listened to some of their Twitter space calls recently. They're just lying and lying and lying.

They don't have evidence. It's very conspiratorial at this point. and I don't like how they're trying to transform what was supposed to be an active high octane volatility based trade into. like now just an investment I wasn't in AMC to invest it I don't like AMC Fundamentally I think there's other better compan.

Fundamentally, if I'm going to invest in something I'm going to invest where I think my money has the best odds of growing. so AMC as an investment I just don't have interest in it I was interested in AMC when there was a giant Community supporting it and we were talking about or the shorts going to get squeezed learning about Market structure. Now they're basically just trying to give their money to like Adam Aaron's bank account and I just don't give a about that. do I have AMC Yeah I have that but that's more of a moral decision for me.

Uh, just because because I know a lot of people know about and got involved in the AMC storyline just because of my coverage of it. So that's more of a moral decision. Uh, I'm not necessarily the most optimistic on where that money is going to end up I don't think it's necessarily going to grow if it does. I'll be stoked that it does.

Uh, but if there's any massive upward movement, obviously, I'm just going to take my money and move on. Move on. So you you? yes? I have AMC I have Gme, but I kind of just don't even think about it at all. If anything, I should be like selling covered calls again it just to make some money off of it CU I own thousands of shares? Uh, but I I just don't think about it.

Uh, but spy taking a little bit of a hit Nvidia taking a little bit of a hit. Remember I'm still waiting for my opportunity to go against Nvidia We have another report at 10: a.m. so I'm waiting for that to come out. Uh, right now 9:52 So we have about 7 Minutes 7 minutes and some change till another report comes out.

Obviously Apple is kind of the big story of the day. so is oil I mean oil chilling at 73. And that's actually ever since it got smacked at 75 not long ago. It spiked all the way up to 95 last night.

So lot of volatility in the oil Market How's Oxy doing today? Oxy's chilling above 70. How's Exxon doing Exxon going flat Uh, Cxv CVX Chevron selling down a little bit but still green on the day? How are Airlines doing Southwest up slightly Delta there I Do want you know that between United and Delta there's some sort of potential pilot strike going on. the United Pilots want more pay than Delta Pilots So if you are invested in these trading these, that's something you should pay attention to news from over the weekend. What else do we have Target How's Target doing today? flat not really doing anything Bud wise are actually getting a little bit of a bounceback but still red on the day I See Tesla turning I see the Spy potentially turning.

Are we just going to get smacked at 4,3 like? look at the Futures Market This is the Futures market for the S&P 500 smacked exactly at 4,300 Key Technical level key psychological level. We're kind of coming up to a decision point if we start to bounce in here. I Might be interested in going long if you don't remember. This is exactly what happened on Friday on Friday when the market opened.

big green bar. the next 15es minute bar, we gave it all back and then we built a base and popped off of there. As of now, today's action looks quite a bit like Fridays Now in reality do I think today's going to play out like Friday I Mean it could, but I think the odds of that are very low just because we've already moved so much. I don't know what announcement is going to happen that could possibly continue to propel this.

It's possible, but we just have to look at the likelihood. so I'm just watching it. I'm going to be reacting to the price, action and I'm going to be looking at risk reward I mean right here. Dude that did get a little bit Smacker Rude.

that got pretty smacked Actually, we popped up. How is everything going right now? Crypto looking heavy Tesla a little bit of a bounce Apple Coming down to it's like 182 level. decisions are going to be made. This is exactly this is exactly exactly exactly why I Like to wait those first 15 20, 30 minutes because this type of stuff happens all the times we come out of the gate, scream scaming bullish and then people kind of get almost tricked into going bullish and then they rug it.

now. sometimes it does turn around and you're fine, but other times that could be this like the peak of the day and we do nothing but sell off from there for me and this isn't a rule held by everyone, but for me I find it very beneficial over the long term. it's not going to be perfect for every single day. Sometimes The best opportunities are right at Market Open, but like many things in the market, you're going to find a general rule and then you're always going to find counter examples to whatever the rules are.

There's no perfect General blanket rules in any form of trading most of the time. I Very much think it's beneficial to wait those first 15 20 30 minutes see how things shake out. see established support, see established resistance. Kind of played off of that.

Uh I Also find that it's beneficial to not trade between 11:30 and 1 11 and 1 that midday chop session. It it's low volume, low volatility. Is this just not trading on the Spy right? here. Is this not updating with what's going on? Why is my spy not changing? The cues are changing.

My spy is just not changing at all. Uh I Guess we could watch it on the Futures Market to give you a better idea, but something's happening with my feed where I'm not getting the new spy number. it's just Frozen at 428 38 just not moving on mine. I Don't know I Guess it's some sort of data issue, but at least we have it on the Futures market.

So I mean they would be moving in the exact same like Direction U There's not going to be much of a difference, just the only thing is that the price difference, but the actual movement will be the same. Oh, looks like it's trading again. Is it actually trading again. Yeah.

a little bit of a lag. um little bit of an awkward lag Apple coming down M did it officially hit three? TR if it like I think it had to be very, very close. Uh, the Spy Now making a breakdown now I'm making a little bit of a breakdown. a new Fresh low on the day so we pumped to 42920.

Uh, if I were swinging anything over the weekend, I would have been risking this low if I held it to this point I would be locking in my money and then just waiting for the opportunity of the day of the week. I wouldn't be like if it keeps selling. like how much money do you want to give back here especially when we're slicing through the intraday low Nvidia looking a little bit heavy. Do I want to take my stab against Nvidia today? Oh this is the Tra cuz it's it's like at this breakdown I've been stalking this trade and it got the upside Gap fill to Friday's low at 39058 39058 it got the upside Gap Field got smacked at 396 and now we're coming down.

I Get I could just risk instead of risking 405 I could just risk the intraday high that would be an opportunity I could just risk 396 I have a $6 risk. That's not the worst idea I've ever heard of. Maybe I go like half size on this this one. but then what date do I want to play Oh Opportunities opportunities Um opportunities opportunities I do It's just more of where do I want to Anchor My risk obviously I need the snap of 383 I need the snap of 378 I need this snap of 366 and then that opens up the door to this downside.

gapi to 306. It's It's not really the reward part of it, it's what can I like realistically risk and that's not so bad at first I was going to have to risk 405 but I could just risk 396 and then if we cover above this, you could call it just a trend line bounce and you cut it there so that's not the worst. well defined. uh I might give it a second just because I know today it it does slightly favor the Bears tomorrow and the next day slightly favors the Bulls Thursday's neutral.

Ideally, this type of a setup would be coming later on in the week just to take advantage of some seasonality. Uh I guess weakness. don't want to be rushed into I'm going to give it a second I'm going to make sure I like I actually want this. Uh, but if I do do it, the risk would be 396 like I My biggest issue with Nvidia last time was I got into it and thought I had risk but I didn't stick to that risk and it gapped up above it and whenever it gaps up like you should be cutting it instantaneously and then I made the horrible, horrible, horrible decision of doubling down on a b that I shouldn't have been in anyway.

and then after I doubled down I just reversed it and then I didn't have well anchored risk I was just being like um Revenge trading. so patience I'm watching it I'll Obviously you guys will know if I do anything here, but uh Nvidia it. it's clearly overvalued. It eventually comes down.

It's just a question of when. at least in my book it's a question of when. What is today's date? 23r? Uh, let's I want to bring up the option chain Nvidia Nvda Nvidia options uh, single options H we're in at 388 right now. Maybe I go half size watching Tesla watching the cues the O spy popping I haven't done it like I said.

you'll know but spy just got a huge bid. Look at that. Holy did it bounce right off the exponential moving average. a bounce and a rip.

Dude, that is some aggressive buying. everything got a little. The Spy just went rippity City on us. Um, if that picks up some momentum, that might be the easy scalp trade of the day.

Might be the easy scalp trade of the day if that wants to keep going. What is today? The fifth? Today is the fifth. I'll look at the ninth. Wow, that's quite the pump, so maybe it turns into Friday because we had a strong opening.

The next 15 minutes comes right down into the exponential moving average and then it popped and I'm literally just pointing out the similarities of what we saw on Friday pop. Then we sell off hard into the the 10 exponential moving average. Then it pops and as soon as that breakout it like really got moving from there so could be a fluke. I haven't done anything yet I Want to be sure? I want to continue I mean excluding the Nvidia stuff I mean I feel like I've been really really happy? Um, half of my Nvidia trades have been shitty, but other than that I've been really happy with this like six weeks seven we streak that we're on.

Uh, so just trying to keep that up like I don't I'm not expecting anything too wildly nuts today, but we'll see. we'll see. Nvidia does look a bit heavy, does look a bit heavy, and I'm watching the Spy closely. Is the Spy going to get going from here or is this just a fluke? What? I mean it's just battling it out at 4,300 not the worst if it can hold that spy shown a little bit.

All right. Patience, patience, patience. That was the 10: A.m. report.

Remember I mean they're probably talking about it. Here is Kramer Oh Rick N would be the weakest because we have more good Monday Morning Welcome to another hour of Squawk on the street I'm Carl Kingon with d Faber Mike Santo at post N at the New York Stock Exchange Sarah Eisen is going to join us in a moment with a special guest later this hour Chris Netta The CEO of Hilton from Nyu's Hospitality conference in the meantime mix Market this morning Dows down but the S&P does climb 20% from that October Closing low uh, busy week of Eco data and today Mike largely about Apple Absolutely, we are 30 minutes into the trading session. Here are three movers we are watching shares of Apple hitting new all-time highs ahead of its big Developers event. Just Head Live Totino in just a moment and Ford pushing High going down even to Wolf Research's list of high conviction stocks with a $25 tget up 4% might be that brutal fake Pmis.

Now it's Ism's turn. Let's get back to Santelli Hey Rick Rick yes and Carl those S&P Global Pmis started pushing interest rates down. Now they're going down because we have more weak data. Let's start out with a little bit up 4/10 We're expecting up 8/10 Negative: Revision in the rear view mirror if we look at X Transportation we're expecting up 2/10 No, it's down 2/10 and also a worse Revision in the rearview mirror for minus 710 to minus 1% Now let's go to durable goods.

These are finals. 1.1 remains at 1.1 but Min -.3 replaces minus point2 so that's downgraded and 1.3 remains if you look at CLE good orders, non-defense X aircraft. Maybe that's one of the better numbers. That up 1.3% is actually uh, a downgrade for 1.4 but it's still the best since D of 21.

Now let's get to the Money Ball What's really moving markets here. 50.3 on ISM services that is much weaker than what we're expecting. Number down and 50.3 is the weakest level since we're under 50 in of last year. SP Not really liking it though.

little bit of a fake2 56.2 that's going down. That's a good thing. 59.6 in the rearview mirror. 56.2 would be the weakest level going back to May of 2020 on the employment front.

Remember, we just had a very strong employment report. It dips below 50 below 50 49.2 That's the weakest level since, well, it equals. our October of 22 was exactly the same 48.7 in June of last year to find a lower number. And finally here, the Trump.

It's playing on the final new orders for services 52.9 That follows 56.1 52.9 would be the weakest level going back to just last month when it was excuse me March when it was 52.2 we could see interest rates now have moved on. tens under 370 they're at 368. As a matter of fact, we now see that interest rates are lower across the entire treasury complex. Carl Back to you: Wow! Uh, Rick Thank you very much Rick Santelli Mike Santoli digests some of what Rick just gave us namely the employment number in contraction uh and inventories on services at a two plus year low a definite Counterpoint to the jobs num