Oh brother oh brother oh brother Mary Chrysler I Love that video back when Vine was the dominant social media platform and our lives were all a little bit more simple when times were easier times. Uh, those were the days. Those were 100% the days folks. happy Friday Happy almost Christmas it is Friday December 22nd Christmas Eve Eve Eve the eve of the eve of the Eve I think I think that's what we're dealing with right now.

Uh folks I Hope you're having a good one in fact I hope you're having a great one. Some would say um, we're starting a little bit early I do appreciate you getting up getting your hot cocoa ready early this morning because we are not that far away from getting the next inflation report. The Pce report the personal consumption expenditure report is coming out at 8:30 a.m. ET I'm excited cuz I think it might lead to a pretty fun day.

Uh, so not only do we have a big macroeconomic event coming out obviously an hour before the Market opens, but from there I Want to remind you of the seasonality for the day, which is absurdly bullish. It's actually individually one of the most bullish days of the entire year. now. Is that a guarantee that things are going to rip higher and higher and higher? No, obviously not.

It's not like it works every single year, but it's worked about 75% of the year. so every three out of four over the past how many of decades this day clearly in favor of the Bulls. So I'm excited to see how it plays out from there. I Also want to get into what in the world is going down with the likes of Elon Musk and Kathy Wood.

They had a big Twitter space call last night Elon talking about Twitter and getting payments onto it and then he also had some commentary on crypto saying he doesn't really think about it at all Bitcoin still holding 43 44k but salana ripping and ripping and ripping. Not necessarily an all-time high, but on the year it's up like 800% So I just want to dive into like what's going on with Sal Lana Some recent updates kind of flipping B&B on the coin market cap leaderboard. so we have some excitement there. Some crazy news with Rudy Giuliani and I Always just think of him in front of the Four Seasons and sweating and the Fly thing.

crazy guys. So updates on Rudy Giuliani and just some other things Here There and Everywhere Um and then I guess after the Pce report I need to let you know what's going on with the uh trading challenge because maybe I should use proper grammar and I should let you know what was going on with the trading challenge? Uh, not so. Bueno I Can't say that all of the accounts blew out, but most of the accounts blew out and it happened in pretty horrific fashion which caused me to then go on tilt and do even dumber things in my other accounts and it's safe to say I spiraled yesterday. It's safe to say that like there's one thing of going on tilt and then I did that but times 10 and before you knew knew it I was blaring country music watching Jack Reacher and coding up I Guess a system to try to fix my life? Uh, so it was I'll I'll share everything that's going on.

it was. it was actually went off the rails. dude. I went to a I guess like a whole different dimension where rails don't even exist, there's blowing up, there's going on tilt, there's breaking your rules.

and then what I did is like 100x past that I Think there are truly truly degenerate Traders and gamblers out there. If they watched me yesterday, if my life was more of like a Truman Show thing and there was like a live feed on me, they would been like oh, this kid has a problem I think I actually redefined like how bad degeneracy can get. How much did you lose I think the accounts were up like 60k, 70k something like that between 50 and 70k. Um, between 50 and 70k but it wasn't like I mean the money could have become mine, but it wasn't like my funded accounts.

Remember this was like it's a prop account so it's their money. So the accounts were up that much and your boy risked it for the biscuit and the risk did not pay off. No, no biscuit was returned. Um, so that's where we're at.

but more? I'll I'll share the whole story. Um, not the best way to go into the Christmas season. I will be probably giving myself coal this particular holiday season. Um, so that's what's going on I'll explain that whole story and I'll explain how we're actually the game's already back on with it.

U That's a whole another level of degeneracy. But anywh, who the PC report is going to be coming out in about 3 minutes? The markets are looking really good right now. Uh, Gold's actually up quite a bit as well. So we're going to get into the Pce report.

hopefully Rick C Tilly is on CNBC this morning and hopefully he starts fighting with people once again because that was my absolute favorite thing yesterday. I think it was their best show ever on CNBC was when like they were about to throw some fists yesterday so no one wanted that Rick and Tilly smoke. So uh, I'm hoping that we get a continuation there. Then we'll get into the absurdity of some of these individual companies of what's going on with Nike What's going on with Tensent? We'll get into the seasonality I'll share stories, You share stories.

It'll be a family fun show all right. On that note, we should probably get a little bit of a looky see at the market right here. Uh, the Spy is actually above yesterday's high and so are the cues right now. So little bit of bullishness.

We're above the high from yesterday. We're seeing some optimism coming into the Pce report: Gold is trading at 273 and then bitty bitty Bitcoin is trading at 43.6k so that's just like a little bit of a backdrop. Let me make sure the audio is on the Pce report: the expectations are uh, year overy, year 3.3% and then uh, this is for core and then core. Month over month is 0.2 So these are the lines in the sand 3.3 and 0.2 Obviously, coming in above that means inflation still a little bit too hot and then coming in below it a little bit cool.

That's the type of optimism positivity you want to see. So if these numbers come in light lower than expectation I Think we could have a crazy, crazy, bullish day? Um, that's what I'm particularly excited for. Uh, seasonality suggests that. Yeah, the Bulls do usually dominate this day, so let's see if it happens this time around.

Now, before we get into this actual announcement, let me make sure the volume's on. all right before we get into the announcement. I Do want to ask all of you guys uh if you haven't already, smash the like button uh, it just helps out on rumble on YouTube on Twitter a network effect. It propagates it to more people.

So if we want a party on this Friday the more the Marrier type of a deal. So if you haven't already, smash a like and don't forget to subscribe a little bit later. uh, we're going to be talking about gold code U they are a partner of today's stream then it like is actually very very well time because gold is ripping Faes off right now. and I think it's not going to be too long before it hits a new all-time high.

But let's see, capped at 69,420 you think that's where Bitcoin's going. That's like going to just be the ultimate top 69,420 I think for the Ls, the word world might do that I think that like could actually become um so when you went on until was it like the guy from Molly's game where he lost all of his money and his marriage? um I wish it stopped there. you know, like I wish I just had that normal blowup story. but dude, far far crazier than that.

Like I said I Watched four episodes of the new Jack Reacher season I was blaring a whole new genre of music. Apparently there's there's a thing called country rap. um and I stayed up way too late and Piper got mad at me at one point she's like dude, like we go to bed now like what, what are you doing she was like mad at me that we weren't going to bed as I was busy struggling. so uh as I was busy coding to try to convert everything on ninja Trader instead of using the trade copier over to actual individual code.

so I could run the code on the individual account. So it it's been crazy. It's been crazy crazy times. Well, anyway, uh, they should be coming out with this pretty soon.

The volume's on. What was the reaction I guess C NBC is behind today. Little bit of positiv Back to Squa Box Rick Santelli Here, live at CQ with some very important breaking news: Personal income for November and durable goods November Preliminary on personal income up 410 Exactly as expected in the rearview mirror was up 210 which was the lightest going back to November of last year. Up 410 is the best since August so that's a nice Improvement if we look at the spending Side Up 210 A little bit of a Miss up 210 back to back.

although the last two10 now gets downgraded to up one1 instead of up 210. if we look at real personal spending adjusted for inflation, it moves up to 3/10 That's followed by a slightly revised lower up. Is he rocking the Christmas TI Again, this one's red with a little Christmas tree months and now numbers Pce deflator month over month down a minus sign minus 1110th. We have not had a minus sign since April of 2020 April 2020 and that was minus 4/10 That's what we're comping to and if we look at the deflator from a year-over-year perspective, it is up 2.6 That follows a downwardly revised 2.9 and 2.6 is the lightest level going back to February of 2021.

Now the most important two core Deflator Pce month over month expected to be up 210 is up one10, and last month's 2/10 also becomes up oneth. And finally, the year-over-year Core Deflator the most important number in this series in my opinion, up 3.2% 1 10th lighter than expectations Two1 lighter than one1 revision from last month's 3.5 down to 3.42 stack upet should be on this best level going back to March of 21 March I That brother, why is it going down have moved up slightly. Uh, I Think that the biggest issue there happens to be some of those income numbers were a bit on the high side, but let's do G durable goods and maybe you'll see 5% 5.4% on our November Preliminary read: that is a Whopper of a number. Last month, we had minus 5.4 which now becomes minus 5.1 So there's a bit of mean reversion here, but no matter what, if we just look at it on the face, 5.4 You have to go all the way back wow to May of 2020 to find a higher number.

But as I said, to some extent, it's kind of reversing what we saw last month X Transportation we could really see what moved this number. It's all about Transportation aircraft because now that 5.4 drops to half a 1% 05% However, that's still multiples better than we are expecting and it follows a downward revision from unchanged to down 3/10 which also has a mean reverting Factor There that would be the best month-over-month change on its own. it up half a percent going to May of this year. And finally if we look at Capital good orders, non-defense X aircraft stock market movement not making the most sense right now.

Wow, this is a Whopper too up 8/10 of a percent, up 8/10 of a percent. Uh, that is the best since it was up 9/10 in August The problem is in between there of course we had some downward numbers. Uh, last month's down 310 doubles to down 610. So even though there's some strong numbers in the durable goods, a lot of is reversing some revisions that pushed us weaker last time net net well on a 10e we move from 385 to 387 pre-opening Dow futures were're down I think Joe about 100 and now down about 135.

uh I Looking at these numbers, uh, there's definitely been some progress and I'm sure that we're going to see some of these month-over-month numbers on the deflator get annualized I Think that's a little bit of a tricky game I Don't think inflation's linear, but the panel could probably get into that topic Joe And the the are they gonna fight today I pray they fight today Joe Lot I'm still thinking about so much you said Rick Stay with us for give the data F Let's bring in Betsy Stevenson University of Michigan Economics professor Thomas Hogan Senior research fellow at the American Institute for Economic research and our own uh, senior Economics reporter Steve Leeman Steve We we'll go to you you first. we I asked you about the core Pce earlier and what we you know if we use the tailor rule, where should fed, where should the FED be right now? Is it restrictive? Is it not restrictive? Does it? Does this mean we should get all those cuts next year All right before I Make the calculation Joe Tell me what, um, your deflator is. You want to use the core? You want to use three-month annualized core? What do you want to use? Joe Just give me a number I'll give you the I'll give you the Rick Just warned warned about in a linear way. Pick your favorite.

Well I'm I'm going to use 3mon annualized core which is 2.16 Steve doesn't I'm going to do the calculation here. This is a lot of fun to do live on National Television We're going to do 5.38 minus 2.16 and we're to 3 22 real rate versus a Fed that thinks the real rate is I don't know what you want to use 0.5 2% 1% whatever. So we're maybe three times what What would be a kind of long run neutral real rate if I did my math correctly I will tell you those numbers though the 3-month annualized core which is exactly what Rick told me not to do I'm going to do it despite it 2.16 Joe on the three-month annualized core um, the super core howevers a little elevated though. it's come down 3.5% And then here's the here's the Earth Shaker right here which is the headline: 3mon annualized if I did my math right I got it 1.39 and how did we get there Goods Deflation minus 0.7% on Goods Uh, non durable is down minus 0.9 and service is up 0.2 before I give you to the panel I'll just point out we have this push me pull you going on where the income numbers Joe You talked about this in the last hour.

Income numbers Spending numbers pretty good Durable numbers Investment numbers pretty good. and yet what we have is this anomaly of the economy continuing to do well and inflation coming down which undermines this notion that we need below potential growth in order to have declining inflation back to you. Well, it be great if we didn't this would be that'd be be great. That'd be great.

Uh, let me start with with you Betsy So is it possible that we could get rate cuts? and I mean can we have everything? We have our cake and eat it too? Can we have a good economy and low inflation and lower interest rates? I Mean it. it sure looks like we're We're getting our cake and eating it too. It is worth just pausing and thinking about the fact that you know 85% of economists surveyed uh, a year ago thought we would have had a recession this year. Um, most people thought that we would either tank the economy or we wouldn't get inflation under control.

Very few people thought we'd Hit The Sweet Spot of getting inflation down and keeping the economy growing. Uh, so you know Round of Applause For everybody who's been in the policy maker driving seat uh, obviously chair pile being a a big big playing a big role there, the I think At the end of the day, this comes back to the fact that we just really don't know what potential is I Mean it has to be the case, that there was just a lot of ability for the economy to expand Supply in a way that could help bring prices down without overheating the economy. The typical idea is like when we're we're at potential, there's just no way to expand. we're just stuck and what we've seen instead is labor.

Supply Expanding immigration coming back, new business formation surging all of those things that happened I Think has done a lot to meet the demand of people without actually, you know, having ongoing rapid inflation. So there's going to be a lot of lessons to be learned here over the next few years. But if I was the Fed this morning, I'd be getting up with a big smile on my face and thinking maybe we can hang that. Mission accomplished Banner real soon.

Oh my God Oh my God uh Thomas Let me ask you and maybe you can figure out oh my God Why people still feel like things are the the average person would not say we're in. you know this Goldilocks scenario right now. What What What happened They they just remember if you get a couple of 9% increases in inflation, the prices don't go back down. Is that what people are still uh, feeling agida about? Yeah I mean I Think there are a couple of reasons.

Definitely one of the big questions now is why are average Americans less excited about the Econom than a lot of professional economists are and one of them is. Like you said, we haven't had price declines. They were told over and over that this inflation was transitory which meant prices would come down, but that's actually not what we're seeing at all. Um I think that they are a lot of times consumer sentiments largely based on inflation and after you have high inflation, you expect that to be bad no matter what's going on in the job market.

But I Also think that the some of the numbers are are a little bit more mixed than economists are reading them. So for example, Poell in his Fomc press conference talked about uh, job openings and um, the low Quits rate as if those are two independent data points that just look good. But Quits is not independent Quits depends on you know how many job openings there are. What do wages look like? Do people expect a recession in the next year? And so you know, low quits rate to me with with the bad consumer sentiment means people are worried about a recession.

they don't want to quit their job because they think things are bad and so I think the the data are a little bit more mixed than a lot of economists are saying. yeah I guess uh Steve and Rick we mission accomplish banner I I don't I don't know whether we can. uh, that's always dangerous isn't it Rick? What do you think? Yeah I think it is. And and once again I Understand that if we start this movie about a year and a half or two years ago or even started in the middle of Covid, one could argue that it really puts a pretty good face on how the FED is done and I wouldn't disagree with that.

but I never look at things like that I like to look at the macro I Like to look at what happened in 060708 I Like to look at how they kept rates near zero so so too long I like to look at how keeping rates at zero really was instrumental. Moving de To 33 trillion. So whether it's mission accomplished I don't think so Mark Looking good That initial reaction: You can annualize these rates. but here's what: I see I see the year-over-year deflator 3.2 which is still well north of 2% and we have a multi-speed consumption economy and there's a lot of the participants that aren't feeling this.

use Bureau Labor Statistics own inflation to go to the website, look for the tool and put in preco. pick a month January of 2020 and what you'll find is inflation's up 20% because it's compounded, these annualized rates aren't making people feel good. Okay, they're play I don't know, maybe not. but uh, we'll have more time.

This is like an episodic TV And and uh, we're going to do it again. um soon. hopefully. But thank you to the entire panel.

Uh, coming up that guy New York Times Colonist Tom Freeman is going to join us to talk about uh, the attacks in the Red Sea that have disrupted global Shipping and the latest on the uh, the war Israel Hamas War Squawkbox will'll be right back No, they won't cuz I'm turning it off. You see, they won't because it's time that we talk about other things going on. Stock futures fall as Wall Street aims for eighth straight winning week and I bet if I reload it they have the intern uh Futures fall slightly. dude, they need to speed that up.

We are popping right now. Uh, the first three minute reaction didn't make the most sense. Obviously if you guys are just joining in right now. We just got the Pce report.

the personal consumption expenditure which is a super nerdy Financial way to say hey, we got another inflation report. Inflation came in less than they expected, so we're still inflated, just not at the same velocity they thought. So prices are going up. It is becoming more expensive to buy anything in this world.

It's just the rate of the increase is less than they expected it to be. So it's like the Silver Lining to a really crappy situation. But anyway, the market obviously inter interpreted it as at first it was a little bit bearish, but obviously we are popping now. which makes sense.

Uh, Bitcoin just below 44k and then even gold picking up right now. not necessarily within spitting distance of an all-time high on gold, but we are getting there. Um, obviously Q's are within spinning distance of a new all-time high. The Dow already hit a new all-time high.

Well, the Q's did it. Piper What are you doing that is not your paperwork. My apologies, You can't find good work these days. You know we listen to all these people talk about the labor market and getting jobs.

and if you ask me, it's just you can't find good work. I Want the Labor Statistics when we're talking about Good employees not employees that at 8:30 in the morning come in here and mess up all of your paperwork. Also, I'm tired of having employees that you walk into the bathroom with with the lights off and you're not paying attention because why do you need to and then you step into a pile of vomit to Me Maybe Maybe the labor market should return. to quote unquote Good Employees who don't do that? Maybe we need employees who don't eat styrofoam to the degree that they vomit on your floor and then in the middle of the night you open the door to go to the bathroom and you step in an entire pile of vomit.

Maybe Maybe Maybe maybe golly go dude. oh my. God she's right under my feet. Dude, it's going to.

it's going to be one of those days. I Could already tell it's going to be one of those days. We can already tell now. Okay before we get into the economic update: I just some life updates.

Uh I guess for Giuliani uh he I guess a judge ruled he had to pay some Georgia like the election workers, the voting workers. uh, a lot of money because because of defamation and now he's filing for bankruptcy Giuliani Files for bankruptcy after 140 million defamation loss Former: New York Mayor list debts as as much as 500 million bankruptcy filing should be no surprise according to the lawyer. So I don't think they're actually going to get any money because he's just going to file for bankruptcy. So that's a pretty crazy thing.

But obviously when there's ever any story about Giuliani, it's kind of interesting because I always think of the Four Seasons thing when like he had some press conference I think it was somewhat related to Trump uh but it was like the wrong Force seasons and then the other time he had a really bad tan and he started to sweat. The other time there was like a fly on his head. This guy I can't believe he was mayor of New York cuz his I guess fall from the peak has been pretty freaking disastrous Harvard Financial pain grows as Blav Blav Niik blavatnik BL blotnik. Is that how you we think we say it? This sounds like a Russian oligarch blotnik blav bik salude comrades BL BL Anyway, uh, Harvard for whatever reason made the most idiotic decision of 2023 and I know we've been through 12 months already.

You might be thinking no way is this the dumbest decision of the year. But right in the final seconds, Harvard's like you know what? hold my beer, we can do something even more stupid. and basically the president. uh, what's it like Claudine gay or whatever her name is uh, she for some reason just like won't say that calling for genocide is bad and then everyone at Harvard is like, yeah, we unanimously support her.

as in the board obviously the students and the donors are as pissed as you could possibly be and that makes sense. Uh, but it really brings up the fair question: higher Education Specifically these Ivy leag Schools Are they just like, is it just a cult full of cultists and they can't even just see reality for like what? It's really not hard to say genocide is bad of anything of of anyone of any person. Just be like genocide is bad. Full stop.

That's like that that talk. it's below the Lwh hanging fruit. To just say genocide is bad and the fact that they are doing these mental gymnastics to just not state that it's crazy. Um Harvard What an embarrassment.

They deserve to lose money. Who would continue to donate to this organization? It makes no sense Anyway, Billionaire pauses, gifts to school amid anti-em ISM fur F Uh, University is still richest in the US with $51 billion endowment. Crazy. So Shali.

Obviously, as we just heard from Governor Yunan, you already have seen Liz McGill the president of Penn resign over the weekend. How much pressure is now on Harvard's clotting gay? Yeah. and it's interesting. Not only did you see her resign, you're also seeing the board chair Scott Bach also stepping down from pen.

And when you look at Harvard now and MIT as well, you have a few things. First of all, you have Congress itself. You have Alise Stonic, the representative who really led a lot of that very tough questioning of the University President saying one down two to go and really calling for the removal of the other two presidents as well. You also had a nearly 2,000w letter from Bill Amman to Harvard's governing board that led this: Hees That Gay has done more to damage the reputation of Harvard University than any other individual in the 500y year history nearly 500 year history of Harvard University So you have Alumni I Also little bit of context.

this is McGill On the right, she was the President of University of Pennsylvania She stepped down because of the uprising and then on the left, this is Clauden Gay, the president of Harvard who is not stepping down and in fact, they like, apparently support her unanimously. I Think her time is ticking I Don't see how she could survive this like I mean when you're just that idiotic, how can that be possible? Like you're not going to survive putting on the pressure Harvard's board meeting as well. So certainly a lot of pressure there from both Congress and alumni. How much support on campus on campus does Gray have? Uh, what's interesting about Claud and Gray in particular.

Guy and a lot of alumni and donors will also tell this to us as well. Is this recognition here That yes, the Board of Trustees has a lot of power, so do the donors. So do Alumni. But at the same time, you do have others like the Harvard Jewish Alumni Alliance For example is important to think about here.

it said it understands the call for gay to step down, but it's also concerned that the plate on campus will deepen the prolongated process of searching for a new president. They say then you have faculty as well. Remember faculty professors have a really big role uh, in the tenure of a president in the perception around a president and you have the likes of a Jason Furman for example, who said that you know you had Claudine Gay denouncing calling for genocide Larry Summers the former president of Harvard as well saying that Claudian Gay otherwise has had the right approach you firmman saying that they he hopes they don't let donors and politicians dictate who runs the school. So there are elements of support for cloud and gray as well that are different than what you saw from the very aggressive approach to calling for the removal here of uh, the Upen president Liz Migel Well, Shanali, we only have about a minute left, but you just mentioned donors How great.

Is the Financial Risk here for Harvard Yeah, in the Acman letter, one thing that was interesting is a specific statistic he gave, which is this idea that at least a billion he's aware of of terminated donations from a group of the most prestigious donors at Harvard And remember the Congressional issue, particularly with the investigation between lawmakers as well as the Department of Education investigation into different schools launched just last month Federal grants funding tax exemptions. We're talking a lot of money at stake here for a lot of these universities. Not just Harvard Frankly, dude. I think they deserve it.

I Think they deserve everything that's coming their way for. Just like it's the cost of heightened levels of stupidity. Heightened like extraordinary levels of stupidity. Anyway, bringing it back to the market.

so the reason things are looking Bueno This morning right here, spy up cues up gold looking good. gold. gold still moving. Dude, gold might be at a new all-time high very soon Uh is because of the inflation report that just came out a little bit less than expected.

Uh. building permits came out a little bit earlier today and then new home sales coming out at 10 a.m. so that's the state of like kind of the overall. Market But let's get into some of the nitty-gritty here.

After the market closed yesterday, we heard from Nike and it was no bueno. Nike Sncs 10% after it slashes Outlook unveils 2 billion in Cost Cuts So Nike Uh, feeling a little bit of the pressure? Earnings per share 103 versus 85 expected. Okay, so that was good. They beat on EPS but Revenue 13.39 when the expectation was 13.43 and then obviously their future.

their forward future looking guidance. Not so good. So if you're taking a look at Nike NK it is all the way down here at 108. closed out the day at 122, it is down 11.5% in pre-market trading.

another stock getting hammered. Tensent loses over 43 billion in market value after China proposes new online gaming rules Beijing Released draft guidelines amid at aimed at curbing excessive gaming and spending Friday midm morning ahead of the 4-day Christmas weekend holiday in Hong Kong Tensent shares tumbled 12.4% net Ease shares plunged 24.6% and Billy Billy Billy Billy I've never heard of that one Shares slid 99.7% The new measures don't fundamentally change the online gaming business model and operations. Uh, but obviously the market a little bit worried so we have some other socks. Um, and that's just because of I guess I suppose regulations now with respect to today and kind of this week as a whole.

Santa loves Deens that he does So today, Friday is the official start of the like I guess welldefined Santa Claus Rally in my mind I Think of the Santa Claus rally to be mid October to mid January but more specifically, according to the trader, Alman act the real Santa Claus Rally is the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the upcoming year. So that's the start. today. today is the first of the final five day trading days of this particular calendar their year and then that will be going into the first two days of January And I mean you guys have seen this, all the macroeconomic events, all the earnings.

But what I want to bring your attention to is the seasonality for today individually: S&P 500 seasonal buys for Friday December 22nd If you look at this, over the past 25 years, the Bulls have won this 76% of the time three out of four years. The Bulls win this individual day. It rips, it rips, it rips. The Profit Factor is 8.

83 which makes it one of the most I guess High returning individual seasonal bias days of the entire year I Don't think it's exactly the best one, but it is very bullish. usually I'm just like oh, it's neutral leaning bullish or bullish this one I had to come up and not. It was not only just very bullish I had to like capitalize very to really get the point home to everyone. this day, not all the time.

Obviously, by no means is this a guarantee, but the odds are high, especially when most of the time the odds are 5050. I Mean that's a 26% Edge right there. Absolutely crazy. Um, so you can get this.

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Shout out To the newsletter, and also on Locals if you're interested in it. That's how you can get into the gooni trading. Discord If you want to trade with other like-minded people, all the connections are through locals. 5 things to know before that stock Market Bell goes dingy ding dingding today Friday December 22nd Boomeranging.

Well overall, the market is still looking pretty good. Here's a look at the spy uh, looks like we have a bit of a gap up situation, so let me just, uh, tag this. Let me make this red so we all know that we're dealing with a potential gap down. Um, there's a downside gaple to 47298 so it's exactly a dollar below where we are right now.

Obviously it's not a guarantee, but the market loves to fill these tested areas of supply and demand. and I would argue that things get particularly exciting above. What is this? 476 476 is the high from two trading days ago and the breakout and close above that I believe will set up the opportunity for the S&P 500 the barometer for the overall Market To test the alltime high, we are very, very close to the alltime high. In fact, we are only about 1% away from the all-time high in the S&P 500.

obviously VI ly The Q's U They actually hit a new all-time high two trading days ago on Wednesday Uh, currently standing at 41047. Let me see if I could get a price point. Uh, where's the price thing? price price label right here right there. 41047 that is currently the all-time high on the Q's small cap sector is struggling behind.

but the Dow hit an all-time high The Q's hit an all-time high and the S&P 500 uh is obviously within spinning distance Nike trips up. We just covered that. they are getting slaughtered down 11. 5% in pre-market training Shipping cost sore.

So because of what's going on in the Red Sea which is the body of water to the top right of Africa into the lower west of Saudi Arabia it's like what separates it. It's the Red Sea uh, the Houthi militant group uh, sponsored by Iran, It's the Iranian backed militant group. Um, they're causing a little bit of a Ruckus over there and this was a very common shipping route. So now this is forcing people to really go below Africa or pick some other wild route which is, um, like, much more of a pain in the ass is the best way to say it.

Well, because of it now, shipping costs are ripping ripping ripping. Um, I Was actually just reading this morning that now some of these are going for as much as 10,000 per cargo bin. like which is crazy. Uh America All right we talked about Giuliani that clown, uh, ruling the roost.

What's going on with Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A has the secret sauce a hold on its customers that every other restaurant wants. It becomes the top fast food chicken chain in the country, beating out Popeyes and KFC dude. Chick-fil-A is good, but is it uh, it's probably better I Really like KFC Popey I Haven't had any of these in quite a while, but no. Chick-fil-A it slaps Everyone likes Chick-fil-A I'm sure we have some big Chick-fil-A fans in here kind of Mak sense I Don't know why they're closed on Sunday seems a little bit ridiculous, but hey, it is what it is a little bit later.

um, probably at this point we'll do it after the Market opens. Elon Musk says oh, should we just do it now? Should we just do it now? Yeah, let's get into it now. Little bit of breaking news related to the world's richest man Elon Musk and obviously his social media platform Twitter SLX and the accepting of payments and also some interesting commentary on crypto. Speaking of which, if you haven't looked at Salana recently, it is ripping and ripping and ripping.

So what you need to know about all this is it just went down recently. Elon Musk says X will launch payment services by mid2 24. In my humble opinion, if this is successfully executed right away, you're going to see a massive jump in value of what X/ Twitter is actually worth Elon Musk's quote Unquote Everything App is expected to launch Inapp Payment Services on its social media platform around mid 2024 through Crypto integration. Excuse me though, Crypto integration now seems remote.

so. Elon Who historically I think a lot of people in their mind thought he was a big support of crypto and I still do. But the way he was downplaying crypto in this particular conversation I thought it was noteworthy. Musk said he expects payment services to be fully launched sometime by the middle of next year pending the approval of several Money Transmitter License applications.

and this was all in a conversation with: Kathy Wood who's running Ark Invest and you guys know she's big in disruptive Tech and what's going on with the Bitcoin spot ETF application She's one of the people within that group obviously. Tesla positions, coin positions. really. if it's Tech related, she's somehow involved and she definitely has U I would say a large social media presence.

but anyway, they had a space call yesterday and this is where all of it came up. Must said he hoped to have launched payments on the social media platform sooner, but he had been weighed down by bureautic processes. Musk said that he wasn't aware of any potential showstoppers that might see their Money Transmitter License application rejected, adding that X had been quote unquote a bit late in submitting all the necessary documents. So before we get into his commentary on Crypto, this is actually a clip from their conversation: are you going to turn into a financial platform which is where you started your uh, entrepreneurial Journey many years ago, is Is this still? uh, Is this still on the drawing board? Uh, yeah.

absolutely we're We're just waiting for the final approvals to come through for the Money Transmitter licenses. It's just taken longer than expected to get the Money Transmitter licenses. Um yes I did see you have 15 or so now or is it more? Um I think we actually have a majority of the states I think you need 50 individual on but it's it's irrelevant until California And and New York of breu us I see I See and and uh, are there any showstoppers? Or it's just bureaucracy? It's just I mean really? just I Guess bureaucracy. Um, you know.

Um, the thing. Things were obviously quite chaotic, especially for the first few months. So you know this: It's not entirely their fault. We we were a bit late in submitting our uh, you know, um, Money transmitter licenses.

um and uh I essentially thought I thought we had done it, but we had not done it. Um, until around the middle of this year. So I I think we'll probably get our approvals uh, early next year and so I would expect payments to roll out. I I would be surprised if we ar if it takes us long than the middle of next year to roll out payments.

Um so I'm I'm not aware of any. any show stop is just kind of working through the system. All right. So there you have it from Elon himself of what's going on with Twitter I'm going to call it Twitter I don't know if I'll ever call it X But anyway, if you ask me, this is like a clear value ad and I think it'll increase the popularity of the platform.

but let's bring it back to Crypto because I think some of the comments there were even more interesting. Many Crypto enthusiasts hope that Musk might integrate one of of his preferred cryptocurrencies including Dogecoin and Bitcoin as part of the X payment system. Obviously, if you paid attention to any of the history of like Elon trolling, part of it really really intertwines with Dogecoin. So the fact that he was a little bit I guess like standoffish with it I think came to a surprise of many people.

However, the Tesla CEO has never confirmed this and appears to have put a further damper on Crypt related enthusiasm after revealing he spends quote unquote hardly any time thinking about digital assets despite much seemingly new found indifference to crypto. Tesla still hold some 148 billion in Bitcoin on the balance sheets, and the EV manufacturer allows customers to buy merchandise from the Tesla shop with Dogecoin so he's not completely saying like f you to the crypto Community But in this particular conversation, definitely taking kind of a weird setback El Musk says he spends hardly any time at all thinking about cryptocurrency. So once again, this is from the exact same conversation quote unquote I Don't spend a lot of time thinking about crypto currency. Hardly any time at all.

And this was all prompted by Kathy Wood just saying hey, like, where do you think the future of money is going That was his response. like I said taking a couple people by storm or I guess I would say taking a lot of the listeners a little bit by surprise because he previously seemed to be a lot more into the world of crypto. but who knows, maybe this is an overall play. Speaking of crypto, yes, the crypto sphere is looking great, but one of them is really dominating right now and that's goes by the name of Salana.

Salana Surge continues now flipping Binance's BNB in market cap. So just for the point of this, uh, actually B&B flipped it back. You can see 40.8 billion versus 40.3 So they were battling it out throughout the night. But in terms of the leaderboard for Crypto Bitcoin holding the highest obviously at 856, Billy and then B&B is now foreign Salana 5 but it seems like they are very very much battling it out.

Now, if you don't know much about Salana, the first thing you need to know is over the past month it's been ripping. It's up 70% This is think Ethereum, but think faster and they have a different consensus mechanism. Salana is known for proof of: History A Lot of people are liking it because it's cheaper and it's faster. Also, in the short term, there's been a lot of just fomo and fervor because of the meme coins being made on Salana.

Led by Bon um, some of the people that don't like Salana are saying hey, it goes down a lot more often the whole network. Other people don't like it because it was very intimately related with S. Bakman freed and FTX So I Myself am trying to understand like all the parties involved in this, but honestly, that doesn't take anything away from. its like jaw-dropping gains.

A strong 18% surge in the price of Salana over the past 24 hours has boosted the cryptocurrency to the fourth spot in market cap. The first time it's done so in over 2 years, the latest surge catapulted Sana's market cap to 42 Billy overtaking Binance by just a little bit. However, despite the quote unquote Eth killer moniker, many of its supporters tout Salana as a long way to catch up to Ethereum's market cap of 269 billion. So right here, if we go back to Market Cap, you're going to see Eth quite a bit farther away 279 versus 40.

So yes, it has the moniker. it's called the Ethereum Killer and it might do it. one of these days it might be more popular, but obviously it has quite a ways to go. I Mean it's going to have to more than 5x.

The last time Salana was in fourth place was in November of 2021. Back then, at the peak of the bull market cycle, it had a market cap of about 75 billion, but it was still behind B&B at 108. However, the price of Salana closed out 2022 just below $10 and this is I Think really one of the major hiccups with Salana is its connection to FTX mainly due to its association with the defunct FTX exchange and former crypto billionaire Sam Bakman Freed a year later, Soul has surged to almost $100 making it one of the best performing crypto assets. So in my mind, it's kind of confusing because there's I think so much of this is psychologically driven, and I I would safely assume that a lot of people have a negative sentiment for anything related to FTX So um, hey, if you're making a bunch of money on Salana, I congratulate you.

But in terms, does it make sense to me? Not so much. Uh, and this is more of a commentary on like just the market psychology. I'm surprised that they kind of aren't excited about other things a little bit more, such as Avalanche but who knows, maybe people have forgotten about this and they're just more particularly excited about the tech. Uh, just so you guys know, I don't think I own any salana if I do.

It's very small, but hey, uh, if you're actively trading it or if you think it's a quality investment I Still wish you the best of luck. So another I guess Interesting thing right here. going on with Salana is actually quote unquote, the Eth killer you're going to see recently. as in over the past 12 months at the Search terms, salana is picking up and Eth is going the other way.

So in terms of altcoins right now, Salana very very very popular Salana near $100 as Meme Coin Friendy continues to drive rally. So if you want to see it on the weekly view from the start of 2023, until now, Salana is ripping ripping ripping. Its high was $99.99 over the past week. It is up 24% over the past month 82% and year today get this it is UP 844 per.

Really, it started going in mid October and ever since then it seemingly has not looked back. Salana Soul neared $100 today Friday As ongoing hype for the blockchain Speedy transaction, cheap fees and a lottery of meme coin issuances extended into its third week if you ask me. I Think this is actually why it's appreciating and value so much is because it has so many things going for it. You could argue that it's Tech something to pay attention to.

you could say the cheap fees, the speed okay, great and then even the meme coin stuff that's undeniable that just the fomo and excitement that that can prompt a lot of people like it. and apparently it all adds up to people overlooking how often the network goes down. uh, it doesn't go down like every day I'm not saying that, but on a relative basis it does seemingly go down more than other networks. and obviously they are also overlooking the previous connection to S Bigman Freed Metric show Salon has possibly been the strongest draw among onchain.

Traders with trading volumes and network fees Crossing those of Ethereum, which is usually the highest on a 7-Day rolling basis, value locked on Salana applications grew in tandem, rising to 1.3 billi worth of tokens from the 400 million Market in November to reach levels previously seen in July of 22. These factors have apparently helped extend the year-to-date gains for Salana to over 830. As I'm filming this live right now, it is UP 844 per. So my question for all of you guys when it comes to Salana is: is this a hype thing? Is this a a blip and it's going to go up and the active Traders are going to make a bunch of money and then it comes down.

Or do you think this actually has staying power? Do you think this actually has investing power? Uh, I'll be the first to admit it. I am not the most informed on Salana I'm learning I've been reading about it over the past couple months I've been tracking the stories, trying to figure out what's going on I find some of the psychological aspects I see some of the positives but to me I am seeing also some of the negatives of like what the salana story is so that's why I want to turn it all over to you salana relative to something like I Guess we'll say Ethereum Avalanche Cardano Is it actually your favorite? Is this an investment or is this more of just like a short-term like hey, you want to actively trade it up and then you also could actively Trade It Down uh I guess that's my question for all of you right now, especially if you're more informed on the subject matter than I am um I guess I just don't Oh okay, we have 20 minutes so we can still talk about I Was getting a bit worried because I didn't know where we were at. but hey shout out to Gold! Which right here my alert went out. it is breaking to the upside.

Gold is it popped came down Consolidated Consolidated a bit more breaking out to the upside. this is the all-time high on gold. So I guess it's not just digital Commodities that are looking good right now right now. Also, some precious metals are looking good as well.

On that particular note, shout out to Goco uh partner for today's stream. So uh, this is just a retirement account where you could put precious metals in it. so it's a tax advantage account for things such as gold, silver I think Palladium and all the other Ious medals in there. So if you're interested in this like a tax advantage way to take potentially advantage of some of these types of gains, check out Goco.

Uh, if you want to know more about it, search Gold Ira I Think the very first thing on investi pedia is pretty good. Uh, right here a Gold Ira is a retirement account that allows its investors to hold gold, coins or booleans or other precious metals as Investments So you're holding the physical commodity. You could set up a gold Ira with a pre-tax or after tax and obviously these are all the types of things that you can ask and figure out what is best in your situation. When you talk to some of the representatives at Goldco once again pin to the top of chat in the description of the video.

it's just a retirement account Uh I Didn't know they existed actually until this year when I myself was looking at Go was like oh I want a piece of that and then actually someone in the Discord brought up. Well actually not only can you get potentially good gains if gold keeps going up, but there's a way you could save a little bit as well on your tax bill by putting it in the right type of account. and that's exactly what Gold Co is. Um, but anyway.

I just got a little distracted there by gold ripping, ripping, ripping. Uh, back to you guys, what were you? What was what? am I missing on Salana? Salana has over 2,000 daps built on it. Fast speeds, low feeds major Partnerships and institutional endorsement Improved network with no network disruption in almost a year. Uh, it's defin' like I said I Guess it, it's It's fair to say that there's more Network disruptions on Salana, but it's also fair to say that it hasn't happened often.

like Salana does go down more often than something like Ethereum that that's just true. and I think that's like one. Like whenever you're considering any trade or any investment, you have to look at all the pros and look at all the cons. And just to like not pay attention to all the pros or to not just pay attention to all the cons I Think that's a bit silly, so that's why I bring it up because it does go down more often.

but I don't like. Like you said, it seemingly is really. uh, overcoming that technical hurdle if you will. From a psychology standpoint I don't understand how so many people like I guess they just don't care about FTX anymore.

Like FTX was intimately related to uh, Salana and they talked a lot about it. There's a lot of connection there. and I guess now that the dude's in jail, everyone's just like, oh, like, All right, whatever, that's like an old problem I It kind of shows you that whenever there's the excitement and the fervor, people are more than willing to forget anything. more than willing to forget anything.

They're just like, all right. Yeah, like we're cool like money gains. Um, you need to stop doing coding. There's an opioid crisis going on I don't think I've ever done coding in my entire life.

Isn't what's coding? Is that like a vikin in or something? or oxy? or is it like, is it exactly that? or are they all related I don't think I've ever done cod in my entire life I took when I got my wisdom teeth out, they gave you VI it in and then I took one of those and it made me vomit. which is exactly what you don't want to do when you have like a bunch of stitches in your mouth. So that was the last time I ever did that lean I thought lean was like cough syrup and alcohol or something. Uh, Matt's wheel has been wrong every day you wish it has.

Speaking of that, we should run the wheel for the day. Oops. so you guys can find out if we're going to have a a bullish or a bearish day. But here we are.

Obviously red is bearish. Black is in the black. as in AKA green bullish. Let's see what today officially will be red.

Well, that's a bit scary going a little bit against seasonality there, but hey, you heard it from the magic wheel of Destiny here first. I don't necessarily say I agree on that one. It feels like things are pretty bullish today, but hey, uh I'm also not one to fight with a magical being that could go ahead in the future fut tell us how things play and then come back into the past. So uh I'm surprised I'm surprised.

But also this shows why I'm a bad traitor. Speaking of being a bad traitor, folks, folks, everyone shut up for one second. I'm stupid I don't know what happened, but you guys might have been tracking the trading challenge that that's been going on. 20 20 different accounts, all funded with $50,000 The goal was to get up to 92k because of certain details to take out 80k blah blah blah blah blah.

Now the part of the challenge was you have to trade 10 calendar days before January 5th and if you look at the calendar that no longer exists. Which means that my first attempt at this challenge blew up. Which means that I can no longer be in that raffle but I can still make 80k so I can make 80k. but I'm not going to be in the raffle for an additional adk, which is a bit of a bummer, but that's just because of the linear nature of time.

but you might be thinking to yourself what happened Matt Well, if you guys watched the stream yesterday, you're going to recall one of them where I had the lead account I've been using this thing called trade copier where whatever I do in one account should be theoretically traded on all the other 19 accounts 20 accounts in total and the one trade. it was interesting cuz we were streaming it and the lead account hit, but the other ones didn't because always there's going to be like potentially a little bit of slippage, liquidity issues, that type of a thing. So fortunately when that happened on stream I still got quote. unquote lucky and all the trades hit and everything was Bueno Now you also might remember I was pointing out how there was a little bit of a discrepancy uh between Like the quote unquote best account between the worst account there was about a three to four to five Delta trade difference and I was like H I don't really like this going into Friday So right after stream I thought on the weakest accounts, if I could get one or two more units, everything will be a little bit closer to Unison to keep the Train on the tracks I don't know what happened.

some like I was looking at some of these accounts and before I knew it Armageddon hit. uh and I'm still attempting to hear back from Apex and look at the trade orders and do kind of like, um, an autopsy on these now dead accounts. But what you need to know the Tldr is that it was bad. And you also might know that for me to even get these 20 accounts, it was about roughly a $4 to $5,000 investment I think just above four, closer to four than five.

But whatever, it cost me thousands of dollars. So not only in that moment when these accounts blew up, was I mad that I'm not winning this trading challenge that I would have to be honest and transparent with all of you to let you know that I'm a degenerate? uh, but also there was like a financial I guess hit there as well. So what does a Dgen do when things go bad a D Gen DG So you know what I did I was like okay, socially, there's nothing I can avoid here I need to be honest with Stream about what's going on with the competition and say hey, I lost the attempt one The best thing I could do is try to be better and more disciplined and more like a monk for attempt number two. So attempt one blown up in my face, not going to be in the raffle whatsoever.

but I can still make 80k on attempt number two and hopefully it's on attempt two and not three or four or five or six. But so I knew there were social ramifications that I'm super bummed about and also like I just like realize that I hate myself because I'm an undisciplined piece of and that has that's that's more of a me' thing. But there's also the financial implications of the attempt cost me about 4K 5K and I wanted that money back I didn't want to spend a whole another four or 5K to do attempt number two. So you know what a Dgen does.

A Dgen fires up their options account that's exclusively meant for for selling premium and you know what that DJ does. Looks at the NASDAQ 100 sees that the NASDAQ is coming down. You take about $10,000 and you buy zero. DTE Ndx puts all right, reasonable, reasonable.

Well, when you're on tilt, when life's not going your way, you're going to be the person who damn near bottom ticks it when you want it to keep going down. So that $10,000 investment very quickly was an additional loss of $88,000 So there we are: I blew up these accounts that cost me 4K I was chasing it I was Revenge trading I was on tilt trying to make this money back and I bet $10,000 that blew up lost 8 80% So now I'm down 8K So there I am knowing that for today's show I need to tell you guys. Not only did I fail the challenge I lost, 4K I lost another 8K trying to chase it. So a social hit and a $112,000 hit.

Now many people in this world when everything's going that wrong, they're going to say whoa, I'm digging a hole and the best way to get out of a hole is to stop digging. If you ask me, that's the mindset of a loser. That's the mindset of a quitter. This is just my opinion.

I don't have the stats or facts to back this up, but you know what I did so now that I blew up 12K now that I have the social loss now that I'm not in the challenge I still think to myself, oh, there's a way what if what if I don't dig deeper what if I dig so deep that I come out on the other side of the planet on the top of the mountain. So obviously I had those puts that cost me an additional 8K I threw the towel in on that and then I thought all right R Shambo brother So I took the money and switched over to calls. your boy took about I had five I took about 6K took about 6K and threw that puppy on calls, threw that puppy on calls and the market went up great. I'm up a couple thousand dollars on this particular trade I'm feeling good Market comes down now I'm down an additional two or $3,000 and it's at this point that I want to go full Kyle mode and just punch H in every piece of drywall I can possibly find and I just want to smash my head off of a wall cuz I'm that stupid.

So you know what? I do I do what? All good Traders do I leave I leave the position on. but I leave my computer and I go out to the living room and I play with Piper I drink some water I calm down and I come back and I'm down even more I've now gone from down an additional 2,000 to now like an additional four or five and that's pretty much the whole account. Like this is just this is: this is stupid. This is absolutely stupid.

Why am I this stupid? So I sit there and I proceed to watch every single 10c chart every single 10sec bar in the chart for the remainder of the day. At this point, there's about 90 minutes left in the day. it's 2:30 and as I'm watching this 10-second chart, low and behold, it starts to go up. It starts to climb.

And it's at this point that I can feel the market Gods above shining on me I can feel that I've successfully entered the matrix. It's at this point that I'm reading the chart better than I can read a Dr Seuss book And it's at this point that every degenerate gamer knows. Oh, something's coming. If you look at the conclusion of market yesterday, you're going to realize that the market started to take off and I was able ndx I was trading the Nzq I was in I had five of these and it cost me 1.2k per one.

So about 6K Um so I'm in at 12 bucks dude I was able to offload those puppies at 45 bucks I made multiple 100% return to the degree and I put all the trades and everything up in the Discord just so people could fact check me I ended up on the day up 5K So as your boy was digging this hole just digging and digging and digging I successfully got down so low and hey, talk to Einstein about this one I'm no physics dude I ended up on the other side of the planet on the tippity top of the mountain. so your boy was in this hole down at this point 4K because all the accounts blown up an additional 8K so that's 12 I got out of that so much that that account was positive 5K and then obviously because of the other 4K So your boy ended up up $1,000 somehow being so incredibly degenerate to the point that every every religious being above was like this guy has a problem. We need to help him. There is like dude, there's people who have been on tilt before and I think them even watching this it' be like this guy like legitimately has a problem and it it was so problematic that it was a full circle it like I'm starting to realize being good and being bad at trading and gambling And dig.

It's not linear folks, it's a circle if you're so bad. Sometimes it eventually comes back around to like it actually working for you. So did the accounts blow up? Yes, this is still 90% bad because the trading challenge I'm in I'm not going to be able to compete in it I'll still be able to get the 8K but I'm just no longer going to be able to be in the raffle. But financially I was actually up ,000 It just absolutely blew my mind.

So folks, as you're sitting there today as you're making your trades to potentially pay for your Christmas presents, yeah, there's a school of thought that you should stick to your plans, stick to your system, be disciplined, respect your risk, and go for your reward, and do it time and time again. That is a very fair school of thought. Another school of thought potentially is if you're going through Gambler hell maybe you just got to keep going. Maybe maybe you just need to really keep going through that path of Purgatory and find out what's on the other side cuz you might be finding a little bit of financial.

Paradise I'm not saying I have anything to really back this up Beyond this individual anecdote. but sometimes you can fail so horribly you end up becoming successful. So that's my motto of the day. Maybe it's so incredibly bad that just eventually has to be good.

I'm starting to think that it's all circular and it's not linear. So that's what went down with me yesterday. Um, am I the best Trader On this side of the Mississippi I would say that all stats and facts and figures Point towards that. Overall, still a pretty negative story.

I'm obviously super super bummed out that I can no longer be in the $80,000 raffle, but I can still win $80,000 Now a lot of you might be thinking, how did you bounce back from that? What did you do? Well folks, that's a great question. It really is. When the market closed and I was doing the autopsy and what the hell happened I did what any reasonable person would do I Cracked open a bottle of Bordeaux I actually don't know what Bordeaux means I think it just means red wine anyway I Cracked open a bottle of red wine I fired up the newest season of Jack Reacher I started playing an entire