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Alibaba stock plummets: what happened what’s next?? // alibaba stock analysis – Matt Kohrs

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Before you panic sell your shares, you should know what's really going on with the company. In this video, I explain why it's an excellent time to BUY MORE SHARES of BABA. Enjoy!
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What is going on moon gang, i hope, you're enjoying your holidays. So when a lot of people weren't paying attention to the market on december 24th, alibaba stock took a pretty considerable hit of 13 when it was reported that the chinese government would be investigating the company for anti-monopoly practices, obviously as an alibaba investor. This is something you never want to hear, but i do have some good news for you after researching what took place, i truly believe we are now being faced with an excellent investment opportunity in this video. I will briefly be sharing my final thoughts on the issue.

Related to chinese companies being delisted from u.s markets, and then i will be explaining what went down on december 24th and why. I personally believe that the market is overreacting. And, after all, that i will be doing a technical breakdown of alibaba stock. But before we get into all that fun stuff, if you want to be a member of the moon gang, don't forget to hit the subscribe button and drop a like all.

That support is truly appreciated and now without further ado, let's get started in a few of my past videos. I spoke about how both the house and senate unanimously passed a bill that could potentially delist up to 217 chinese companies from u.s exchanges, as it was widely predicted. The president did sign this bill into law. The reason i really haven't addressed it is because well, my thoughts haven't changed.

All these companies have up to three years to comply with the new auditing rules and more specific to alibaba. Their auditing has been done by the hong kong branch of pwc since the late 1990s. There is a very good chance that their financials are already in order and if they're not, they have plenty of time to comply. In my opinion, there is too much money at stake and this particular issue will be quickly resolved.

In all honesty, i believe that the biggest issue that alibaba is currently facing is the chinese government. So it's more than fair for you to be wondering what in the world is going on between alibaba and its own government on the 24th, we were hit with a barrage of pretty bearish headlines. China launches anti-trust investigation into alibaba alibaba shares fall after reports of anti-monopoly probe by china. China's state administration for market regulation said through official online channels, has opened an investigation into alibaba over monopolistic practices, and, finally, china tells alibaba.

It means business beijing launched an anti-trust investigation into alibaba, while ant group, the company's finance unit, was summoned to meet with banking watchdogs to discuss financial regulations, in other words, alibaba must play by china's rules. Obviously, this all sounds pretty negative, but what does it actually mean before i jump into this? I wanted to let you know that this article can be found for free on seeking alpha and if you are an alibaba investor or considering becoming one, i would highly recommend checking it out. So what happened? It was announced on christmas eve that chinese regulators will look into alibaba's practice of pressuring online merchants into entering force exclusivity agreements, essentially giving them the option of either listing their products solely on alibaba's platform or not at all. This announcement did prompt a pretty sizable decline of 13, but if they are found guilty of this, what will the actual impact to alibaba's business be well lucky? For us, the impact might be immaterial.

Alibaba has disclosed in its filings that has tens of millions of merchants on its china retail e-commerce platforms, of which tmall has 250 000 brands and merchants in tobayo. I'm most likely mispronouncing that my apologies, the platform which hosts many individual and sme sellers and accounts for over 80 percent of alibaba's china. Retail commerce revenues would account for the lion's shares of the remainder. The question is: to what extent do these force exclusivity agreements permeate? Alibaba's e-commerce ecosystem and how many merchants have been forced to list on just alibaba's platforms alone? Now, unfortunately, we don't have the exact numbers, but we do have some pretty big hints from its competitor for the last 12 months.

The pressure on brands and businesses have intensified and over a thousand well-known brands flagship source have been affected on our platform, with the total number exceeding 10 000.. When you take these comments and then add 50 to be conservative, it comes out to 0.6 percent of tmalls merchants and 0.1 of topeo's merchants. Then, when you apply the proper revenue split, the impact to alibaba's china, retail segment's revenues is a mere 0.1 percent in total, which maps to a 0.4 hit to the segment profits. So, basically, when you really consider the numbers, the market had a clear overreaction to the investigation announcement.

Even if you were to be super conservative and multiply the potential impact by a factor of 10, the revenue drop would be 1, which doesn't really justify alibaba stock declining by 13. Now, i'm fully aware that things could get worse for alibaba jack ma is definitively in some sort of political fight with the chinese government, but in terms of alibaba stock. These monopolistic practices account for a very small portion of its total revenue and profit. As of now, the stock is trending at the lower end of its range for its p e ratio, and i strongly believe that it's an excellent time to invest i'm very confident that years down the road alibaba stock will be trading higher, much much higher alrighty.

Now that we have a better idea of what's been going on with alibaba from a fundamental perspective, let's take a look at the technicals alibaba trades in the ticker baba and, most recently, the stock lost 13.3 percent, which puts it at 222 over the past week month And three months, alibaba stock is down roughly 18, but it is still somehow positive on the year. This is the current technical situation that alibaba is in for those of you who are new to the channel. Here's a quick recap of what's been going on back in june of this year. The stock did find support at 212 on two separate occasions, and this led to a rally and then we saw a triangle which is also referred to as a bullish, pennant, and then there was another rally up to three hundred dollars from there.

The stock did sell off slightly and new support was found at 268, which is exactly where this triangle started from there. There was another rally up to the current all-time high of 319, and then this is where the issue started for alibaba. At first it was announced that the ant group ipo would be delayed, and then it was announced that the company would be facing regulation issues with both the chinese and u.s governments and then from there. We have the most recent monopolistic probe issue from the current all-time high in late october.

Until now, alibaba's stock is down 30, which is definitely in bearish territory, and on top of that, the rsi is clearly in the oversold zone. Most recently, the stock did find support at 212, which is exactly where alibaba bounced twice before. If this bearish momentum were to continue the next support after that would come at 197 and past that we have 190 from the current level of 222. To return to that first support of 212, it would be a drop of 5 past that would be a drop of 11.5 percent and then the final support would be a decline of 14.

On the flip side, though, when investors start to realize that the recent announcement won't have that big of an impact on alibaba's bottom line, the closest resistance would come at 231 past that we have the bottom of this triangle from july, which would be at 240 and Past that we have the top of this region at 253 from the most recent close, those three levels respectively would be a gain of four percent, eight point: four percent and fourteen percent from both a fundamental and technical perspective. I would argue that things are looking pretty bullish for alibaba stock. Fundamentally, this most recent gap down was an overreaction, at least in my opinion, and from a technical perspective. The stock did once again find support at 212 and in terms of the rsi it is definitively in the oversold territory.

To put this all another way, there is no way in hell that from late october, until now, alibaba is somehow a 30 worse company. If you ask me, it's just a matter of time before both traders and investors find value in these current price levels. On more of a personal note, if you've been keeping up to date with my alibaba videos, you know that i am invested in the company. In my cost basis was 255 dollars.

Time and time again i kept saying i would buy more shares of the company if it dipped into this region of support, then, on december 24th, with this gap down, we were clearly below that region and to keep to my word, i did buy more shares of Alibaba and my cost basis is now in the mid-230s. I want to remind you that this is in no way some quick swing trade, i'm planning on holding these shares for many years to come, and that's because i believe alibaba will not only fill these gaps up to 254, 275 and 290, but years down the road. I believe that alibaba will be trading much higher than the current all-time high of 319.. To me - and this is just my personal take - it seems like a no-brainer to pick up a giant technology company on a nice 30 discount, as things continue to develop both fundamentally and technically, with alibaba i'll make sure to keep you updated in future.

Videos so make sure you have your notifications turned on and as a quick reminder, the name of the charting software that i use is tradingview and, if you're interested in trying it out, there's a link to a free 30-day trial. In the description of this video, i would love to know your thoughts on alibaba. Do you agree with me in that the market is most likely overreacting and now is an excellent time to invest in the company, or do you think that i'm overlooking something? I would love to have a discussion in the comments below if you enjoyed this video, don't forget to drop a like, and if you haven't already don't forget to join the moon game by hitting the subscribe button. All that support is truly appreciated and, as a quick reminder, if you're interested in free stocks make sure to check out the link to the weeble trading platform in the description of this video thanks for watching and until next time best of luck in the markets, you.

24 thoughts on “Alibaba stock plummets: what happened what’s next?? // alibaba stock analysis”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Lucid Finance & Investing says:

    I think I'm just going to hold my BABA position for now!

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars jefferson legado says:

    pronounced as tow (as in cow) – bow.

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Johannes Hellwig says:

    Hey, could you please link the articles in the description. Thanks!

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jing Lor says:

    rolled into march calls. GTC buy orders for shares at at 214 211.99 205 200

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars KYC says:

    people really need to understand the relationship between Baba's owners and the Chinese Government

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Gnohz Gnohz says:

    Shorting it to below 150 woohoo

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Chris M says:

    Nobody Cares about the numbers. The number are the past. The present is the Government trying to break up its monopoly. If they break this stock up its valuations changes. when Alibabas Regular business model changes It is not going to make as much money as it once did. Then you have to recalibrate the profit it can still have and thats when the TRUE PRICE of the stock can be determined. The Chinese and American government has its boots on Alibabas throat. It will have it on their for years until its satisfied and Neutered this company. I had this stock for 7 years. Probably longer than most of you all. It tripled from 100 to 308 before I sold it for 280. then bought Blnk and that went up in a week 25% making half my money from BABAs high. You dont have to hold a stock that got hit. You can find a stock that will make 33% above it's current price that isnt being attack by a Chinese government. Think about that. The Government of China is not the Ametica government where you can take things up to supreme court. This is a communist do as I Say government.

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Chris M says:

    If you buy now and they DELIST YOU CANT TAKE YOUR MONEY OUT UNTIL THEY RELIST IT. Look at what they did to Lunkin. They stopped Trading and Unlisted the stock then people WAITED 2 months for any news. Good luck

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Chris M says:

    You mean invest now when BABA wants to spend billions in buying back stock but still cant stabalize its price?

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars John Wageman says:

    Good work! ……ALIBABA….i Added a few shares!!๐Ÿ˜Ž๐Ÿ˜๐Ÿ˜‹

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Sujan Ahamed says:

    How many alibaba stock you own moongang?

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars saeedoroomy says:

    With another negative news for $BABA, itโ€™s plunging below $200

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Shan says:

    I feel the same Matt I bought some during the drop and will buy more

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Niraj Patel says:

    I get a rush of cringe endorphins when he calls us moon gang LOL

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Psyhyde Luo says:

    At this point, only true imbeciles would buy BABA. CCP cronyism is real

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kelly N says:

    30% discount wow what are you waiting for…it will back up and goes to the moon ๐Ÿ˜‚

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars BuffaloBull Investing says:

    I love the audio quality! I also just made a video about BABA. I'm sooo bullish on this one. I think it will one of the best performing large cap stocks in 2021

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars bullsnam says:

    Xijinping said โ€œ Give ant group to meโ€.

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Julian Schmahl says:

    Whats ur opinion on the VIE structure risk?

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars TMF Motivation says:

    This is an amazing change to buy BABA

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars max g says:

    you forgot the 3 day rule, never buy a stock after it craters

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Alpha Trades says:

    Missed you for two days, Matt! Thanks as always

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Seth McCutchen says:

    Iโ€™m loving the video and audio quality of this video! Awesome work Matt, glad to see the growth of your channel. Keep dropping value!

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Johnny Quito says:

    Whatโ€™s your thought on Nvidia stock?

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