Foreign. He makes the world the world round. I'm the talk around town Remy Gave me the sound I Need a Skrilla on the river I Need the Skrilla on the river. Money makes the world go round I'ma talk around town Remy Gave me the sound I Need the skrilla on the river.

The root of all. Leave alone. agree with that. It's hard to do when you riding around with 10 racks golden arches St Louis I'm the Big Mac St Petersburg Russia You can find it on the map.

Oh I'm so cold I could spit the snow. that's why they call me nitro with the nicest flow on the real man I hate it when they call me bro. It's getting on my nerves like these bills and these haters yo cheer a grown man with a loaf of bread I Keep a stack of binges right under my bed. Check it.

My shoe box is the stash spot I Used to keep my scratch at my dad's house I Got a deadline so I need the cake I Need a plan so my duck is gonna try to escape? Yeah! I'm always looking for the currency. a large amount. call it a pretty penny Money money around town Remy Gave me the sound I Need a skrilla on the river I Need the skrilla on the roof? You got a five dollar bill. Put your hands up.

You got a ten dollar bill. Put your hands up. You got a twenty dollar bill. Put your hands up.

You got a 50 Bill Put your hands up Holla! Holla! Money makes the world go round. I'm the talk around town Remy Gave me the sign brother hello hello, helloing good morning, good afternoon, good evening, good night, good whatever time it is for you. But we are here for another fun film week in the old digital Casino The Old Stock Market today's Tuesday June 20th Am I right on that June 20th oh it is June 20th. Look at that well folks I Hope you had a good long weekend I Hope you enjoyed that extra day of rest.

happy Juneteenth Happy Father's Day Happy Summertime Happy! Whatever you want to celebrate because I'm right there with you I hope you got a good one I hope you had a relaxing one and I hope you're ready for just more fun in the sun here in the Old Stock Market, the old world's largest casino. What we're gonna do today is kind of take a little bit of a step back. Talk about kind of where we've been this past week, month year and maybe get a better idea of where we're going to be going because I do think that we potentially have seen a very interesting inflection point. so I want to get into all that I want to lay out kind of just my thoughts, opinions and really I guess recount the largest Stories the most important, the most influential stories of really last week and last month because I think that's all going to help us give us maybe a little bit of a better foundation for what's going on.

So I want to get into all that that I want to get into some seasonality, then some individual stories. There's also a pretty cool video I saw on Tastytrade about an option Trader who's up 50 and he's doing some crazy stuff on zero? DTE So I don't know how many of you in here are fans of Tastytrade, but it's an account that I've been following for years and years and years. Shout out to Tom if you guys don't know about it. It's an excellent, excellent resource to learn about options trading, but they commonly interview some of their better Traders on their platform and just get a little bit of their backstory and their trading methodology.

and I was listening to One yesterday and I actually had to re-listen to it this morning to just kind of drill down into specifically what this zero DTE trading strategy was all about. So I figured that could be something fun for us to just check it out, maybe talk about the pros of it. the cons of it? see if we could really get into it? Sounds like Bob in here knows all about it. Um, so we could get into that.

Uh, and then there's just some other updates in the world of not only finance, but like just in like I guess Culturally huge huge signings over there at KIK I Don't know if you guys have listened to it. Uh, but Xqc? Uh, non-exclusive deal Amaranth? the non-exclusive deal. Then this morning on Rumble there was a signing of Robert Kennedy Jr who I believe Over the weekend it became a big thing with uh Joe Rogan and he he went on to Joe Rogan And then there was previously doctors that they wanted to debate and then everyone was offering up different amounts of money. and right now there's if they do have a debate, it's going to be over.

like a million. Maybe at this point even over two million dollars donated to charity. What else was happening? culturally? the US Open was this past weekend, so if you're into golf to my understanding, it was a pretty exciting one to watch. There seemed to be a lot going on a lot overall.

So some pretty cool stuff: Andrew Diaz has been killing it with Zero DT's 33 year old millionaire I don't I've never heard that name before, but if he's killing it massive Congratulations to him. um ooh RFK Jr signed a rumble cool beans stems Listen to him Yeah, but I think a lot of Democrats don't really consider him to be left-leaning to my like knowledge of the situation once again. definitely. I I Was busy this weekend I went to this big concert thing.

uh so I I wasn't really in tune with the interwebs and everything playing out. but I know he's a Democrat or at least a Democrat had the degree of running against Joe Biden but it just became this whole you know sometimes stories within the internet like just take on a whole life of their own. Uh, well, that's exactly what happened this weekend after his interview Joe Rogan got posted and this other doctor was involved and then everyone started throwing money into a pot to hear them debate. it was I don't know, it was just absolutely wild.

Um so there's that. Story Time Track Sponsor Story Treks. My story for you is is if you guys haven't seen the show on Max like which is now the platform for HBO Uh, Righteous Gemstones. It is so freaking funny.

That's my story to you is that season three of Righteous Gemstones just started I think there's two episodes out and I it's so funny I Don't want to give away anything. it's a comedy show. uh, it's with Danny McBride uh actually among many other people. but I believe it's made by Danny McBride and he stars in it as well.

So if you're looking for a show to watch, that kind of uh, pokes at kind of the underbelly of religion and how a lot of people seem to do it without maybe moral intent. more of like a money grab situation. It's it's satirical, it's pointing poking fun at that. Uh, so it's on Max So if you're looking for a good show to watch a laughing um that's where you should check it out.

but it is. uh it looks like a couple of you know about it. The new Season's so good. Yeah the first two hours it's just such a well done show.

it's so well acting. Uh, the jokes are on point. So anyone looking for a little bit uh, something to watch there's my my recommendation of the week. Um, all right.

So with all that being said, let's take a look at pre-market Let's recap where we're where we've been. In terms of updates, let's do the seasonality of not only the month but today and then get a better idea of what should we be looking for not only today, but this upcoming week and obviously in between that I have some stories for you that I think really are going to be important. but for me, the name of the game for today and this week is I do I Do believe that the relative high is in I Think the high that we saw at the end of last week is going to be the high that we see for a point of time like I Think the Market's simply just too overextended. We're trading at very high multiples.

We're fundamentally overvalued with a lot of these major tech stocks. The overall: Market I think right now it is I Think we're closer to a pullback than we are to a continuation now. obviously. I Don't say that as a guarantee.

It's just my own thoughts and opinions on the matter because we've just ripped so much from October until now, especially over the past couple weeks. things are just going going going stocks such as Tesla Nvidia and Netflix meta Apple. they're trading at massive PE ratios and I don't think it's really going to be a sustainable thing obviously. I'm saying that as more of a meteor medium to longish term swing trade kind of a call out because on a day-to-day basis I mean you're just playing the price action if it keeps going up.

Yeah, obviously you're not trying to call out like weekly monthly or yearly highs. So obviously with a lot of this stuff, it's going to be important to you to understand. maybe everything I say isn't appropriate for every single time frame for you. You want to look at what's going on in the time frame that obviously you care about for your trade and or your investment.

Just a little bit of an important note. Now, before we get into all the good stuff, shout out to today's stream sponsor Street Pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. You can download the app off the Apple I store the the play store or you could just I guess bring your camera up to the QR code. let me zoom in in case you want to do that.

But once again, uh, Street Beat, just download it. There's no web app right now. it is for your phone. In the future they are coming out with a web app.

I Was recently speaking with the team about that, but anyway, it's free to download on the very first page. When you're signing up, use the code Matt M-a-t-t and when you do so based on the size of your initial deposit, you'll get anywhere from five to five thousand dollars. Obviously it's a marketing Ploy for you guys to get onto the platform because they're that confident in the product that they offer. I've now been using Street Beat for five months, maybe almost six months.

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And just as a little bit of a side note here, they do not accept payment for order flow. Kickback For any of you who are particularly interested in that. But once again, street Beat pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. Download it free to download.

use the code Matt M-a-t-t and truly I mean their AI integration their tool Suite it is I mean they refer to it as their AI co-pilot it It's some of the coolest things that I've seen available to retail in my years of doing this. Absolutely highly recommend you all check it out. And on that note, let's check out the overall. Market So Friday we sold off Thursday We made what I believe is going to be kind of a short-term medium-term high.

How high do we get? almost 444 in the Spy coming down to 438 right now. So pre-morning gap down was pretty brutal, making a bit of a recovery. We do have some housing data that came out obviously we'll be going over that, but really it's all going to get exciting when the bell goes Dingy ding ding ding in about 30 minutes. So between now and then lots of important things to discuss.

Stack Features follows investors kick off holiday shortened week of trading so Market was not open yesterday. The Futures Market I Believe was open until 1 pm. but because of Juneteenth the overall equities Market was closed. Treasury yields rise as investors await fed speaker comments.

So this week last week we had the Fomc decision on Wednesday and I'm gonna give you a recap of all that, but the major thing you need to know is no Fed rate hike. But they did signal that between now and the end of the year, we're going to get two more rate hikes totaling 50 bips. So maybe one of 50 bips, but most likely two of 25 bips as in 0.25 Here's the major tldr of all of that and separately, he criticized Powell's hawkish Paw's decision last week. he is the Chief Economic Advisor and the President of Queens College at Cambridge University Muhammad Specifically, your problem with uh Pal's test or well, not his testimony last week.

his uh, his, uh, what he had to say to the markets last week. um, what did you not like? So I called it confused and confusing. Confused because they said three things that are internally inconsistent. On the one hand, they increased the inflation forecast.

They also increased the amount of hikes that they're anticipating, but on the other hand, they did not hike. so that was an inconsistent set of 100. Confusing. Just look at the reactions in the marketplace.

You have those who believe that this was a committee outcome. So it is what a committee would come out. when the chair is trying to please everybody and you end up in the model middle. There are those who think that they are signaling a higher inflation Target and that those who think that they are making a mistake.

Um, and you saw the Divergence in the performance of the equity market and the bond market because of that. So it is confusing and we're gonna have to wait and see what happens next? Is that maybe just a reflection that we're waiting to see on the data? If you look at some of the forward-looking stuff, it looks different than some of the backward looking stuff. and we're a little confused ourselves about where things stand. Just to add a little bit more detail here, just in case you missed it.

When we got the Fomc results on Wednesday, we also got the SCP the summary of economic projections which you get every other Fomc meeting and that's the Dot Plot stuff that everyone talks about. Basically every single voting member of the Fomc, they give their projection of where they think things are going across various economic measures for 23, 24, 25 and like onward. What was interesting was relative to the last SCP which we got two months ago. This one, the median member, the average vote all increase in terms of inflation.

It also increased in terms of unemployment, so that was when they're getting when they say this was like a hawkish pause. Well, that's where hawkish comes from because the voting members see inflation going even higher. which means that they're being more aggressive in their fight against inflation. And then it's called a pause because we didn't get a rate hike.

So this is what's being described here. Why in the world are they signaling to us that they think things are going to get worse in terms of inflation? and then yet they decide to do nothing about it this time around? I'm going to show you in a bit, but 70 75 Chance in Late July I believe it's July 26th the next Fomc, meaning that we do get another rate hike, but anyway, just a little bit of color just in case you forget, in case you had a little bit of a long weekend. Well, that's that's The critical issue is that if you are totally data dependent, which they are, then you end up with serely inconsistent outcomes. Because the data tends to be fluid, data never gives you month to month a very clear Direction on a consistent basis.

So if you overly data dependent and you've heard me say over and over again, it is not clear what is the Strategic anchoring of this fed. It is likely how it sees the economy. We know its framework is outdated, but they haven't replaced it. so you know that that's how you end up.

Um, the key issue? The market. The Equity. Market Does not believe they're going to deliver to hikes The Equity Market has interpreted last week as a pause, not a skip a pause because when push comes to shove, they believe that this Fed will be less hawkish than the Bond market believes. And that's the big difference right now in the marketplace.

All right. So a little bit of a recap. And also yeah, this is the diversions that we're seeing between the Equity market and the Bond market. Uh, hawkish confusion if you will.

Now for those of you who really care about the specific numbers, once again, for the next Fomc meeting, we get the results on Wednesday July 26th 77 chance of a 25 Bips rate hike. So the last time around last week, that's the first time we actually paused in 15 months. That's how like long we've gone up. just higher.

Higher or higher. And remember, we do this in a general sense to put downward pressure on the economy, which should slow it down because our economy is simply running too hot Now in terms of seasonality, if we zoom out, remember June it is choppy until about the last third. Then there's the sell-off and right at the end of June till pretty much the end of July That's when the Bulls really take control. So I would say we're still roughly in this shot.

period. But I Do want you to know that just from a seasonal perspective, the end end of June Like that final week of training and we have about what? A week and a half right now? is that about right? Yeah, about a week and a half. A little bit more than a week and a half. Um, so we're still probably in the chop here.

But I Want you to know that that final week probably favoring the Bears while I know it's favoring the Bears from a statistical standpoint now if we zoom into today individually: Tuesday June 20th Over the past two and a half decades, the Bulls have won this day 52 percent of the time, so slightly better than flipping a coin. Profit factor of 1.16 But as you can see from the equity curve, which is created by buying it open and selling it closed on this day individually over the past 25 years, pretty much neutral. The the trend's not up. it's not really down at first.

hip hop, then it sold off going sideways. So from a seasonality standpoint for today, individually I I Don't think we're really running into headwinds or being supported by Tailwinds Now in terms of things that could get moving, well, right here, we already got the housing start that coming in higher than expected 1.63 million and the expectation was 1.39 I Want you to know that the New York Fed President John Williams is speaking at 11 45 today? What's interesting about that is John Williams His words carry a little bit more weight than some of the other Fed members uh, considered to be like a senior member of this group. so maybe you just want to be on top of that knowing what is or isn't setted. Uh, because this is the end of the blackout period.

Basically, going into the Fomc meeting the two weeks before is a black up here to where we don't hear from the FED members. So obviously now that it's over, we're going to be hearing from Fed members more and more. This week alone, there's going to be six different Fed members speaking in one way or another. On top of that, you have pal, the chairman of the FED speaking with the house tomorrow and then the Senate on Thursday.

So once again, pal, chairman of the FED speaking with the house tomorrow and then speaking with the Senate on Thursday. Obviously we're going to be streaming it because always fun to see them. Just get absolutely grilled a little bit more on that right now here in America Fed Chair Jay Powell Heads to the hill for two days of testimony where one area of focus will be the Fed's economic Outlook Senior Economics reporter Steve Lisman joins us right now with the CNBC rapid update on wind Forecasters say that recession will finally arrive the end of the year session we've been talking about and waiting for for a very long time. Steve And talking about and waiting for and talking about and waiting for this is interesting Becky because very tentatively a consensus developing among forecasters for a soft Landing in the economy that is one where growth flat lines but doesn't necessarily go negative.

Uh, sorry about all the information on this, but I want you to see what happens here. First quarter, it came in a bit weaker than expected. That's the Blue Line being below the yellow bar there and that's compared to our March forecast though still above one percent. but the CNBC rapid update outlook for the second quarter is shaping up to be a percentage Point higher.

and instead of going negative in the second half of the Year GDP has seen flatlining on that third on that third quarter number, that's actually eight tenths of a percentage Point higher. That's a big difference there. Bank of America Writing quote: how many of you are legitimately thinking that they could pull off a soft Landing I mean like the next guy I would love to be all rainbows and roses and be super stoked about all this pulling. Its like, you know, just kind of working out.

but then sometimes we have to face reality I would love for a soft Landing to be a thing, but I mean maybe I'm just being a little bit of a negative name revise in favor of a later and softer downturn. Our forecast is now as much a growth recession as it is. pardon me, a mild recession. Second half growth uh, averaging minus one and a half percent and now sees the second half at minus a quarter of a percentage point.

The biggest change They see labor supply and demand perhaps coming more into balance now that will allow the FED to hit that two percent Target quote with less adverse consequences. Still, there are those who acknowledge there is current strength. Now let me see a recession on the way a little bit. Why Senior: Economist Lydia Busar writes the U.S economy is holding up at the half year mark, but a tumble into a mild recession is still likely later this year.

Core Pce inflation as forecast in the CNBC rapid update expected to fall more slowly compared to the March survey ending this year above four percent and next year closer to three, then two percent before edging down to uh Uh towards the Ephesian space Target in 2025 2-2 or sorry, two three is the forecast for that year. the rapid GDP forecast for this year of 1.3 not far off the FED Zone one percent Outlook The question is whether the FED fulfills that forecast to hike twice more and if that turns a soft Landing into a hard one. Becky No jokes about that last line, please. We are mature adults in here and uh, we gotta take this seriously.

You can't make jokes about that last statement at all. Do want you to know we're technically not in earnings season, but there are still some earnings. Uh, today, after the market closes, we get FedEx I What I've been traditionally taught is a lot of people pay attention to FedEx as kind of a barometer of what's going on. So I'm going to be listening to it I never really actively trade FedEx but a lot of the times FedEx can be construed as an overall indication of is the economy growing? Is it neutral? Is it falling apart? So I'm going to be paying attention to their numbers? maybe? I Accenture some of you might want to pay attention to Darden Overall, nothing too too crazy, but I am going to be looking at FedEx as numbers to kind of understand of are they almost echoing the words of Leesman in CNBC And really, what Ey has to say is just say we're going to be going into a mild recession later this year.

Um, just kind of. I'm looking at their forward guidance I Want to know what FedEx is looking at right now and are they concerned or are they feeling better than normal I Just want to know their overall tonality. So once again, after the market closes today, uh, FedEx but we're kind of out of. It's not until next month that we really start earnings season.

Once Again Individually, we've been talking about Baba and the reason for that is just it had an interesting trendline breakout right here. kind of almost looking in the same realm of Southwest Just they have nothing to do with each other, just their charts look very, very similar. But anyway. Baba We've been talking about this now ever since last week.

Well, two weeks ago, we're like oh, maybe a potential interesting breakout. It got it thus far holding and then we saw this today: Alibaba Founder Jack Ma's close confidence have taken the top rolls at the Chinese Tech Giant Here's who they are: Alibaba Announced a major leadership reshuffle on Tuesday with CEO and Chairman Zhang planning to step down this year and be replaced by veterans at the Chinese Tech Giant Eddie Wu will become CEO while Joe Sai I don't I don't know how to say it I'm my apologies for completely butchering you will take over as Chairman on September 10th. The two executives are Alibaba veterans and our close confidence to Alibaba's billionaire founder Jack Ma. The more so, the reason why I wanted to bring this up is remember last week how Alibaba founder Jackman was happy and Alive super strange that they felt the need to quote that generally you're just happy and alive but when you're suggesting that you are quote unquote happy and quote unquote alive makes me feel like maybe you're not happy and or alive.

Uh, so interesting things going on in the background with Alibaba Tough to put my finger on if I feel like if it's bullish or bearish, the price action. Yes, it had a breakout reasonable risk reward right now going in the bullish Direction But whenever you're involved with the Chinese company, especially when the founder Jack ma is commonly at odds with the government of China That's I mean he's gone dark for months at a time. like interesting situation so just be careful there. Potentially extra risk that maybe you're not so quite like knowledge of and I'm not even saying I am.

but weird stuff. Uh, Crypto last week strangely took a big hit and now bouncing back: Bitcoin Trading just below 27, 000 Ethereum trading just above 1700 a couple days ago BlackRock Files For Spot Bitcoin ETF With Coinbase as crypto custodian, this came out on June 15th. I'm not saying this is breaking news as of today. I Just don't feel like we spent enough time speaking about it, especially with all the craziness right now of Gensler fighting the chairman of the SEC Gary Gensler fighting the entire crypto sphere and then on top of that, we have Davidson and emmer two congressmen creating a bill to fire cancer.

So a lot going on there. Um, at first like it's it's a swath of bad, negative, bearish news and then all of a sudden BlackRock managing trillions and trillions of dollars saying hey, we could pull off a spot Bitcoin ETF which remember to this day does not exist in the U.S The government, the SEC and probably the Cftc and probably the FTC Probably all of them together are saying no, no, no, no, we don't want you to have that. And remember, just for those of you who are like, well, hang on a second, what even is a spot ETF It just basically means that when you're buying into the ETF, you're getting exactly that underlying thing. So if you get a spot gold, ETF When money goes into the ATF that the people who manage the ETF go out and buy gold, so that would be the closest I guess analogy here for the spot: Bitcoin ETF is if it's approved, which remember, we don't have one that would give a lot of people who currently don't have exposure to bitcoin the opportunity too.

So in a retirement account or things of that nature, people who just don't have a generic crypto account, well, this would allow them access. And there's been many who've tried to get one and time and time again, the SEC says no way. Jose We're not allowing one. but the fact that BlackRock is filing now and obviously they're not a nobody, they have quite a bit of money, quite a bit of political sway.

It's giving people some optimism that maybe on this one it goes through, so just wanted to share that with all of you because it might become the more important story within the coming days or weeks. Hunter Biden To plead guilty to Federal Criminal Tax charge charges a little bit of breaking news Hunter Biden To plead guilty to Federal Criminal Tax charges. This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

All right. We will be checking back for updates on that one. That seems like a little bit of a spicy Story Five things to know before the Bell goes: Dignity Ding ding ding today Tuesday June 20th short but dense week ahead. Yes, obviously it's a four day trading week instead of a five day trading week, but we do have a slew of important things that will be coming out.

Housing starts today, Pal speaking tomorrow, pal speaking on Thursday uh. home sales coming out on Thursday and then on Friday we're getting PMI and then obviously on Thursday You always get jobless claims so lots of announcements, developments, macro, economic reports coming out. big changes that Alibaba We kind of spoke about that bad weekend for Disney and Warner Bros I Guess the movie the DC movie The Flash was uh on. in terms of its expectations, a complete flop, just not many people went to go see it.

I personally haven't seen it I had no interest in really seeing it in the movie theater May it's one of the to me it's one of those movies that I'll watch when it comes out on streaming if I get extremely bored but have any of you seen the flash? Is it worthwhile to watch? if it's really good, Maybe I'll go see it. Uh, but if it's really bad, maybe I'll just completely skip it I've been from my own social group getting a little bit of mixed reviews of the movie, so that's why I want to turn it over to all of you? Uh, it feels weird to me watching it because the actor who is the Flash Ezra Miller uh, if you I mean we don't have to spend time talking about it really? Uh, but his recent personal escapades within life are not good. He does not seem like a good guy. in fact, he seems like a very unhinged individual.

and the fact that they went through with the movie kind of like blows my mind on that. So I just wanted to share that uh, blinking in China trying to calm down all the tensions there. Hyundai Ponders Tesla partnership we're seeing Tesla Uh, recently partnering with Ford GM doing a lot more Partnerships And obviously I guess more and more car companies want to get in on it. And on that note, on that exact note, Dingity ding ding ding.

The casino is open as you might expect. For the first 10 15, 20 minutes we're going to be watching the market open just to know if there's any. High Flyers Ripity Skippity Do daughters anything like that or things that are just absolutely vomiting? Um I do want to get your opinion on it? Oh well, actually we have your opinion on it. 50 50.

you guys are 50 50 in chat: How many of you voted 451 People voted 50 Bullish? 49 Bearish. so pretty much half. Uh, so that's very, very interesting. Um I guess you guys aren't feeling the most confident about your I guess decisions today.

So uh, could just be a chop day. Maybe I'll revisit that question with you guys after the first half hour opening. In terms of my own positions: I do want to let you know uh, what do I have I have IEP puts for July 14th and Tesla puts for July 25th first. oh July I was like whoa June sorry I forgot what month we were on I was like wait, are these tomorrow but no July 21st and July 14th for IEP and Tesla those are two of my positions.

Then the other position is spy puts but that's in my other account. So let me log into my interactive brokers. Um, why? But anyway, those are my three positions. spy puts Tesla puts IEP puts the Spy puts are for this month I think June 30th I Want to say and then the other ones are for July 14th and July 21st.

So right now I don't have anything that's really that short term obviously I wish Tesla would go the other way. A little bit of news there more Partnerships Obviously it's currently overvalued, but remember, the main message of last week was the market can remain overvalued, can remain illogical way longer than any of us can remain solvent. So yeah, you have to kind of pay attention to price, action, and respect your reward. Even if you devoutly believe something is overvalued or undervalued, it can always become more overvalued.

It can always become more undervalued. It happens. So the sometimes this this concept of diamond handing. it's a little bit of a silly one.

Uh, especially when you're just like yoloing like hardcore options. So just something to be con. uh to consider for me even though you guys are 50 50. Michael Keaton was a good Batman That's about it.

Wait, they had Michael Keaton as Batman in that is Tesla overvalued. Is it? Yeah, based on its PE ratio, without a doubt, I mean all these all these major tech stocks that have been ripping to the upside Tesla Meta Nvidia Apple Uh, Salesforce All of these based like, based on the revenue that they're generating and their guidance, they're currently overvalued. Uh, but once again, that doesn't mean that it has to turn. Right now.

these things can continue to ripity skippity doo da. and you get some of these gamma squeezes because you have people fomoing into call options. The shorts were a little bit too early, could be getting squeezed out, pushing it even higher. Just when someone says something's overvalued, that should not be interpreted as oh, that means it's about to fall.

Those are not equivalent statements whatsoever at all at all. I Cannot stress that enough things. Even when something's undervalued, it can keep selling off. It can easily easily keep selling off.

Um, that is actually not as overvalued as others to be honest. Well, it depends on what ratio you're looking at. Uh, some people look at Revenue to their earnings. Uh, like like there's there's so many ways to look at it and I think many of us in here are more short-term so really fundamental value shouldn't come into play at all.

Anyway, if you're a day trader, or if you're even a short-term swing Trader as in like holding for a couple days. Uh, you can do that without ever doing a fundamental breakdown of the company. You're basically the shorter your time frame, the more likely it is that you're just playing price action Because we know for many days, weeks, and months, something can remain as when I say something I mean an equity a company. their market cap can remain overvalued or undervalued.

If you're on a very short time frame looking at a stock in an individual day and you think wow, this is overvalued I should short it or wow I think this is undervalued I should yellow it long like that's not a good way to do it because then you're basically saying the day you get in is the day everything's gonna revert to normalcy. and I I hope it happens for you, but that's not like a repeatable trading methodology like whatsoever whatsoever. Uh, where else would I put my money right now in like the medium term Outlook I mean I think bonds are still phenomenal. You could get over five percent right now and you don't have to take on a lot of this uh risk.

One thing I was reading about: does anyone in here uh, is it J E P Q yes this one JPMorgan NASDAQ Equity premium income ETF So it's obviously based on the NASDAQ has a very nice dividend I believe in excess of like 10 or something like that Uh, I own none of it I'm not in it I'm not long I'm not short I don't have calls I want to puts I have nothing related to it but I was just studying it this weekend. Um, actually one of you sent it to me on Twitter just to look into it and everything I've learned thus far. I'm kind of a fan of it. uh, but this seems like an easy place to park your money for the long term.

Uh, once again exposure to Tech stuff. so it's going to be a little bit more higher growth, a little bit higher volatility, but also you get a nice dividend payment. So this this seems to my understanding to be a one where you like kind of set it and forget it type of a deal. But to be fair, I kind of thought that about Arc and we know how Arc's done.

uh I kind of thought that about other Arc I kind of thought that about other Arc I kind of thought that about other Arc My point is is I thought and I think many of us did of like oh an ETF related to disruptive tech stocks where could you go wrong? and yeah there are places where it could very very much go wrong so just just want to share that uh with everyone that uh whenever anyone's pitching you Ultra safe. nothing to worry about. well no, they're They're still generally risk. There's no such thing as like not having risk in the market so want to be very clear about that.

Now for all those of you who are late to class, don't forget to show a little bit of love to today's stream sponsor. I'm talking about street. It's pinned at the top of chat it's in the description the video. um it basically has an awesome amazing, very fun to mess around with.

Uh AI Tool Suite which functions as your co-pilot So this is a robo advisor so you can buy and sell stock the way you you normally would. You can use some of their pre-created strategies based on AI or you could create your own strategies based on AI And obviously if you use the code map when you sign up, it'll be on the very first page is where you can enter map. You're going to get a bonus of anywhere from five to five thousand dollars depending on the size of your initial deposit and then from there you're going to have access to their AI tool. Suite I Think it is awesome I Highly recommend you check it.

Check it out! It is free to download. Don't forget to use the code map when you get rocking with it right now. Actually, because of the recent Market pop, let me check in on it. A lot of my strategies are not just green, but they're crushing it right now.

I Know a couple of you in here have been rocking in AI like investment like you're using AI to create a trading strategy that invests in AI stocks and I know some of you are a crazy crazy amount. Where am I at? Um I Want to see mine right now? So my Bond ladder one which is targeting seven percent is up two percent, My top government contract recipients is up 2.9 my Honey Badger value gems is up 8.4 and my value Hunter is up 4.8 and once again, uh, these, uh, the top first two, the Bond ladder and the top government contract recipients that's created by streetby. They basically have all these Brainiac quants who made some of theirs, but then the honey badger one and the value Hunter one. Well, you could obviously tell by the name that I gave them here or that was generated with them that it's something from me.

But those are crushing it right now. Absolutely crushing it. Honey Badger. The Honey Bad.

What's the honey Bedroom The Honey Badger is in Goldman Sachs Bank of America Apple Amazon and Berkshire Hathaway B. The value Hunter is in what is CB Chub, Limited Conoco Phillips JP Morgan you uh, Union Pacific and then uh also Costco that's the value Hunter one and then what's the top government contracts in right now? Oh, that's a lot that's going to take forever to go through. What's the bond ladder is in? Uh, just collecting? Uh, the classic ETFs I share I bonds 2023, 2024 and 20 25 33 each. Anyway, yeah, so you can do the buying and selling Uh, obviously as you want or you could also do some sort of mixture of just AI related stuff if that's something that interests you.

So check it out. Why is it called Chub Limited? I Don't know. That's just what they decided to call it. Hey, you're gonna have to ask those guys.

but anyway pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video or just download it to your phone. it's on the Apple App Store it's on the Play Store Uh, the key thing is to get that bonus money, use the code Matt m-a-t-t When you do sign up I Thought everyone sells and goes away in June Uh no the saying is selling main go away. but if you look at the last two to three decades worth of data that is not a good suggestion. Like just I mean we know July actually is a kind of historically it actually is nice to go long at the start of July and then sell at the end of July So like kind of being a bit more active within the month.

Uh, so that saying of selling May and go away I I'm not a fan of it I'm not a fan of it at all. Uh, thus far this morning Tesla popping Netflix popping Nvidia popping we have things going Pop Pop Um, but I don't think it's gonna hold today. That's my own opinion. but obviously uh I'll let you know if I place any trades on it I did kind of want to place one trade uh I wanted uh what time is it? okay at 10 A.M I Want to watch this video with all of you so we can.

We can get more specific into conversations about trading strategies. Uh, but the one that kind of interests me. Related to a recent interview on a Rising Star on Tastytrade, which I pretty much watch all those because I like to know other people's strategies and how they view the market, the risk, the reward, the things that they take into their I guess just really decisions and this guy, to my understanding, he trades zero DTE SPX spy. He's basically doing zero Dtes on the overall market and he does really really wide iron.

Condors If you don't know what an iron Condor is, it's basically a call Credit spread and a put debit or a put credit spread They're both credit spreads if you don't know what that is. That's basically when you sell a call that's out of the money and then you buy one that's even further out. So you're looking for the stock to just be below the one that you sold to get all of the premium. Um, basically you're saying you're either neutral or bearish on the day, Or even you might be bullish.

just not that absurdly bullish. So it's kind of the inverse of buying a call. If you buy a call, you're looking for the stock to go rippity, skippity doodle. To the upside, if you're selling a call, you basically want it to go down.

You want it to go sideways, or if it does go up, you just don't want it to exceed the strike price that you sold your premium at. And then obviously the inverse is true for put. So in. Iron Condor is basically you saying that you think it's going to be within a certain range.

You're like I Don't think it's going to go that high I Don't think it's going to go that low. Um, and really what makes it a Condor? the opposite of I Suppose just a strangle is a strangles That, except you don't have the protection on the outside. the strangle would just be your selling calls. and selling puts within a certain range an iron Condor is that.

But on the very far Wings you're buying more calls, you're buying more puts and it's just a bit more of a protection. A lot of us in here actually have to do it that way just because of like a margin requirement. Iron Condors especially within the world of retail training I would argue are far more common than straight up strangles. Uh, but I I don't know the exact odds or the exact showing within the market off the top of my head.

But anyway, my point is is that this recent Rising Star interview Uh, he does zero DTE Iron Condors In the interview he said he does 10 to 12 of these a day. He does a three to one reward to risk ratio. So I believe he's when he sells premium. he looks to collect around 60 70 80 cents per iron Condor and he risks a third of it.

So let's just say he collects the premium of 60 cents. Well, he's as soon as he's down 20s like if he loses 20 cents on it. Uh then he he closes the position and just rolls to another one. So basically within the day if he is getting that ratio, well, he only needs an accuracy of what of 25 just to be break even as long as he's hitting on a quarter of them.

If you have a three to one reward to risk ratio, you only need to have an accuracy of 25 to be Break Even because the one that you win pays off all those other three losers. Um, so he said he trades about 12 times a day and he still is winning about five or six of them. So his accuracy is 50 which is obviously in excess of what he needs to be. Break Even Uh, doing this methodology, he's turned a half million dollar account into 750.

so he has a 50 return on a half Milli account. Um, so that's pretty much the tldr of it. Uh, he says that he's been trading it successfully for I believe the past two to three years which has not been the nicest overall. Market Environment So like I Definitely give it to him.

Uh, to my understanding, just logically thinking about this. The days that this would really mess you up, this trading strategy are the days that we have nice trending days. If the market is just a beautiful trend of The Upside a beautiful Trend To the downside, this strategy on those days would be in pain. uh, would be a lot of pain.

A lot of pain. uh. but on days that it's just choppy, well, you're just collecting premium collecting premium Pro collecting premium hey Matt I'm pretty negative on AMC by 64 78 on ape. should I hold or cut my losses I Mean that's up to you I don't tell anyone to buy or sell.

Um I would only do so if I was an expert Trader if I was um like had this long, long decorated career and all the math and everything I I don't really give a shit about AMC or ape to be honest. So I'm even more out of tune of that world than I used to be. um I I own it I own AMC I own a my own Gme and I'm sure if it gets ripping or if it gets falling, someone in chat will let me know. Other than that, it's up to you.

There's no reason for any of us and this isn't even specific to AMC or April Jimmy You should not be in a play without knowing what your risk is like. What's your risk? Uh, we all have different time frames. We all have different risk tolerances. We all have different situations.

We all have different personalities, none of us are the same. We all have a different situation that we're bringing into trading, and we all view the markets at minimum slightly differently. So for me to express my opinions, that's exactly what they are. They're just my opinions.

Uh, But for you, your money's on the line. So you got to do like, whatever, trade your plan. Um, whatever your plan is. Trade It Trade It Trade It Trade it.

What time is it? It's 9 46 now. All right. So let me see if I could do this properly. SPX Options today is zero DTE I Want to try as this guy's strategy I believe he does.

So I'm gonna have to do a 60 by a 55 for one leg of the iron Condor a 60 by a 55 and then also a Delta Delta Delta Uh, a 30 by 35. a 30. a 30 by 35. Uh, vertical.

What did I say? Wait, don't those don't really trade for much money? That's probably problematic. Uh, let's just do one of these because I'm trying to learn. Yeah, we'll do three. 60 by 65.

I don't know if these will hit. Uh, just. I'm creating an 0 DTE iron condor. One of them just got filled.

Uh uh. what do we? Something got filled well when the whole iron Condor is created. I will let you know what's up. I'll let you know.

All right, it just got no filled two contracts to be filled I got a partial fill. All right. when this finishes up, I'll explain the iron Condor with remember in Iron Condor you're selling premium. You're basically you're not yoloing it long.

You're not yellowing it short. Um, you are doing what you can to. You're hoping that the market really doesn't move much. You're actually hoping that things are really, really choppy.

Um, I'm not necessarily in love with this strategy, but I also don't necessarily hate it I'm learning it Similar to how we were talking about the ICT uh, trading stuff lately. Like, okay. worthwhile to test it. Not an expert or anything like that.

just trying to look at it I have decided to do this on SPX my iron Condor almost created, but awkwardly not as of now, awkwardly not as of this moment. I am leaning a little bit more bearish on the day, but Tesla's been strong out of the gate Netflix I mean Tesla's at 266. Nvidia is at 233. Is this a new all-time high? or did you get up? How high did Nvidia get last week? 237 All right.

So we're apparently four dollars away from that I mean we're seeing some strength this morning? Without a doubt? Without a doubt. Without a doubt. All right. where are we at? Uh, spy a little? Flathead open Tesla showing strength Netflix showing strength.

Is there anything else Shopify is up. We've been like watching Shopify now for about two weeks I have no position on it. but I Must admit the breakout and hold of Shopify is a nice one. I Mean this was such a beautiful risk to reward setup.

It pops after a good earnings comes down lower, high, lower low finally breaks, holds re-tests and we're up since then. I mean you're this is a beauty of a trade. They're very, very easy trade. Uh, we have rum making a bit of a recovery at the bottom of this consolidation region also referred to as a Darvis box also referred to as I Guess accumulation if you're more into Wyckoff training, it just kind of the same stuff all described a little bit differently.

Apple uh made an all-time high on Friday but with smack there actually having a red day after putting in a new Fresh all-time high still valued over 3 trillion. in fact it's market cap. uh oh this is priced in from Friday's close. but as of now the fact that it's above 184 whatever, it is worth more than three trilly interest thing interesting Tessa Prob had some rock star employees making the company more valuable.

that makes sense. What's going on? Okay, just gotta nope. I have one more to get filled almost. Uh, what's going on with Oxy? Well the oil supply Russia has more oil supply than anticipated so more.

Supply with demand sitting the same price has to come down. Uh so right here you have oil taking a bit of a hit after a big jump up. um with me I'm still in it. Uh, Warren Buffett's still in it I'm still in it.

My thesis of the fact that the US eventually has to refill the Strategic petroleum reserve it? it's still there. So I'm not really too worried if that makes sense just because eventually we have to refill the Spr. So with that in mind, I'm not really going to get out until maybe our government makes like a crazy crazy decision. Uh, that's exactly why I didn't get into any options with it I just don't stock I'm just sitting on it.

My average: I admit it that I'm definitely feeling a bit of pain right now. My average is around 67. it's trading at 57 so I'm down by 10 which is not what I want to be. It is at a support level so I could lower my average I could probably cut in half if I doubled up or I could just be patient and pray for this trend line to break out.

But right now Russian supply of oil higher than anticipated which increase in Supply obviously drives price down. What else do we have? Demand is low right now. Uh, it's dropped a little, but it's not like a huge demand drop off. You see big demand or the anticipation of oil demand dropping off when like you have world power such as the Us or China like putting in really really low estimates for their GDP because then that's just a concept of like oh well, maybe they're not going to need as much oil Tesla continuing to rip 266 I don't like that Netflix strong at 438 Nvidia turning a little bit uh IEP I very much want IEP to keep coming down and down and down I did get some fresh puts on that just on this trend line breakdown.

Obviously my risk is 31 and some change but would love for this to take out 26.71 the low from last week. What do we have? What do we have Microsoft How's Microsoft doing? Gap down? Uh I don't know how many of you took this. Upside: Gap they'll play this morning but it came very quickly. Uh, it was able to hit 342 pretty much the low from Friday's Gap up sell-off but uh, also potentially below this trend line.

Who knows, maybe there's a new one. This is why I would be watching on Microsoft new all-time high I Believe. Oh got The Fill All right. so the iron Condor is created so let me positions, positions, positions all right.

So iron Condor don't worry about the IEP put or the Tesla put I'm still holding that I have till July 21st July 14th. Um, not really paying attention to that at this moment in time. What I am paying attention to is this right here this iron Condor I have the call the put side and the call side I just did it in lots of three. But anyway, um, I sold for 30 and I sold for 30.

So the total premium I collected. This is a net credit plate, not a net debit. a net credit I got in at 30 30. so I collected a credit of 60.

I Believe that the strategy for this is using a one-third risk as in 20 cents I collected clearly 60 cents, 30 and 30. that's 60. In total, a third of that 33 would be 20 cents. So basically I could let either of these rip to 50 and then that would be my risk on that particular play.

And if it hits okay, it hits and I have to get out. Other than that, this strategy is going for 100 gain as in letting it ride all the way to zero. and that would occur if we stay below 4360 and above 4430.. those are my upper and lower bound once again, above Four thousand, Three Hundred Sixty five? Excuse me I think I misspoke.

But anyway, for the put, you want it above the put and below the call. So above 4, 365 and Below 4425 I Definitely misspoke. So once again, just to be clear, by the time the Bell goes dingy ding ding ding today, you want it above the upper put value and below the lower call. Value when you're talking about selling iron Condors that's your strategy.

Uh, I'm not saying that this is a phenomenal, amazing strategy that everyone needs to be doing because I don't know I Just heard about it over the weekend and I thought it was interesting enough to dive into the math kind of check it out and see how it all plays out, but this is a little bit more of a complicated situation. It's a little bit also of like a ballsy situation just because you're doing it with zero DDS which is just absolutely insane. But we'll we'll see how it goes, we'll see how it all plays out. Uh, right.

and maybe I should put SPX up over here just so I know the value that we're at. SPX We are going to throw this up on the watch list. Um, for those of you, maybe just a little bit of an interesting side point here. Uh SPX If you trade that relative to the Spy, there are actual tax benefits.

So the SPX is the legitimate S P 500 Index I Want to be clear about that? It is. It's The Real McCoy. It is the S P 500 Index Spy is an ETF created that is tracking the SPX And then when we're talking about Es, that is the Futures Contract for the S P 500. So SPX is the real thing.

It is the S P 500 Index Spy is an ETF in exchange traded fund that is built to perfectly track it. and then Es is the Futures Contract Once again built to perfectly track it just I. Don't know for the the point of just being detailed here of everything, but as you're going to see, they all are going to look the exact same. All right.

Where are we at S P Y S P Y S P Y All right Tesla Holding strong Netflix holding strong Uh Nvidia coming down a little bit Shopify coming down a little bit How's Meta doing today? Uh My Overall thesis once again is bearish on the day. definitely bearish on the day. But uh, in terms of the features of market like I you guys know that I've more so been focusing on Futures market trading strategies. Um, not really seeing a signal quite yet.

You said something about a tax benefit. Yeah, the um, hopefully you're making gains, but the gains you make on SPX are taxed at less than on spy now. I'm definitely no tax professional. you're going to want to talk to uh, whatever CPA about that or whoever your tax person is.

but trading like the cap games uh, on SPX is less than spy. So the people who trade the overall market for various reasons, you're going to find that they're more attracted to trading SPX than they are the Spy um cap games exactly the games of your caps. uh Market try to Pop came down put in a higher low pop top, made a lower high then shown a bit of a weakness right now. but once again we are only 30 minutes into the day so there's still a lot of game left today.

A lot of game, only half hour in, so a lot going on. I See Meta taking a little bit of a puke Apple Same thing Amazon Same thing. oh interesting update on Salesforce CRM Uh, Insiders: I Believe selling a hundred million dollars worth of stock. Uh, basically the Insiders to CRM are not as confident as their earnings are about the future of AI.

Uh, they are selling quite a bit. Quite a bit. quite a bit. Quite a bit.

Hey, Mateo Do you think Cpai will do an offering soon? Thinking about getting in my real life AI Girlfriend wants to know. Thanks man. CP Do you mean C3 AI Would they be doing an offering I Have no idea about their financial situation? Um, there's no way would I be buying here. Look at this absurd over extension.

so I wouldn't invest at these levels I wouldn't Um, on the long term or the medium term. I'm not going long. Uh, if you're a day trader, Well, that depends on the daily chart. but right here you have Divergence it went higher, the momentum's less.

This looks weak to me. Um, definitely looks weak to me. There's no way medium or long term I'd be getting C3 AI At this point, the risk rewards. Just not that even if it keeps going, what's your risk all the way down here? At 30 when it's trading at 43, that's a huge percentage.

That's that's in. that's 30. I'm not risking 30 on that. especially when we know things are overhyped.

And my overall thesis for the market is that we need to get a pullback. Um, I would only be buying things that like I I'm always looking at it through the realm of what's like the risks of reward. and right now I just I don't see the risk reward there And your question about the offering? uh that like I I don't even know how I would possibly model that I mean first of all, I would have to look into their filings to see if they even have shares to offer and then from there. Yeah, it's always a possibility because every company wants more money, especially if they're predicting difficult times ahead or if they're looking into an acquisition or something like that.

But to be able to accurately predict it I mean you'd have to be very, very intimately knowledgeable about the company. and I'm not like I just followed that because of the AI rip. like just the the sector just going rippity skippity doo da. Uh, but to me it was an active trade so I wasn't really considering an offering.

But remember generally not all the times, but a high majority of the time when you have an offering, the stock price drops just because it's dilution. Another way to say stock offering is to say dilution. Uh, can we switch to the five minute? Uh, when there's more time in the day it's only 10? So I'm not going to switch to the five minute right now. Oh, let me check out these.

What are they currently trading at? Okay, I'm in at 60, right? Which means it can go up to 80 and they're currently worth 68. I wish there was a way to monitor this a little bit better. Um, so I sold for 60, they're currently trading at 60. that iron Condor that I did.

but if it goes to 80 I need to cut it. Um I trade a similar strategy to this guy and just started. Locals can continue to post that people want. Oh DeWolf that would be amazing.

do you have a position in CRM Nope, not long, not short. dorm calls don't inputs. Uh, it's not really my favorite stock like it's fine I don't really have anything like bad to say about I just feel like in terms of capital efficiency, there's more exciting things going on that I don't really need to get exposure uh, particularly to uh Salesforce but it's been doing well this year. It's definitely part of the crew that's kept the market elevated.

Be a little bit careful right here. My one of my issues with this iron Condor on Weeble is you can't really fully customize it. So if I want like a 50 60, 70 wide like they need, um yeah, that's definitely options to iron condor. I Don't know why they don't let you optimize it a little bit more.

Iron Condor Yeah, actually that's a good question for all of you. Maybe I'm just dumb here. Does anyone know how to fully customize this? Because like the width. so I want the ones that I sell to get farther apart, but when that happens, it's also widening the difference.

uh for the wing and I can't drag it. So basically what what I'm attempting to do is the ones that I'm buying and selling here? Let's just go down to one. so this isn't freaking anyone else. Uh, don't worry about that like there's when you're talking about an iron.

Condor you're inherently talking about four different strikes and with four different strikes. I I should be able to control it. but I only have one width here and when I change that width, it's it's changing the width between all of them. which is just absolutely insane.

Absolutely insane. Um, so I'm a little bit lost on that one. Definitely a little bit lost there. Uh, does anyone know how to do that? you can customize on TD Yeah, I know you could do that and add the legs manually.

I'm asking why this is messed up on Weeble when I go right to an iron condor and I don't know I could do it like a width of five. It seems so odd to me that they haven't thought about this. like why even why even allow you to do it and that like they're they're so messed up. if I do this, I mean you can see it and the width right here.

So it's 95 by 400, 395 by 400. Well, then that's 10. That's 15. But it's also spreading the difference on this side, which it doesn't let you change.

Break even. Does anyone know how to fix that? Anyone? Anyone, anyone, anyone. Exploration: I Just don't I don't know why it doesn't why it's not better Like that's kind of like fucked up and the fact that there's a giant lack of discussing it I Don't know if you guys haven't looked into it, if it's just like actually impossible to do it and it says I mean dude, why doesn't it just let you create your own try to create two separate criticism? Well, yeah, you can. That's how I did it.

Like my positions right here are two separate credit spreads. That's exactly what I did. But then I want to be able to set a limit. a stop limit for the whole position which you can't Can you highlight it? Yeah, you can't So right here, create a uh, close by a limit order.

Nope, it doesn't let you put it together. but that's what I care about is because I'm looking at the position as a whole. Uh, so this is just another weakness of these quote unquote like free brokerages of like, how do you mess that up? How do you possibly offer Iron Condors or any of this stuff without letting you do your own customization to it? Um, that it's absolutely wild I Really hate to say this, but you can do it on Robinhood Oh wow, that's pretty funny. like why I I Just don't understand it for being a brokerage that's been around for years and then to even go out of your way to offer iron condors and then yet they're still that bad at it.

Maybe just create separate credit, put spread in credits. Yeah, this is what I'm saying is, you can do that and that's what I did. But then you can't put in, um, a stop for the overall situation. So for me I collected 60 cents I colle