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Dumb Money Ep. 12
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What's going on, what's going on hope, everyone had a good midday session, just kind of a weird in the stock market. Honestly, just like a slow, slow decline, s p 500 dragging the market down with it. Iwm has no idea what it wants to do. Obviously russell 2000 right here trying to make its mind up.

It looks like we have a triple rejection at 16.50 amc currently trading at 37.50, down 6.9 percent on the day, and then gme is trading at 177 down 3.7 on the day, once again, the s p. 500 russell 2000 dragging things down with it. This is not specific to amc. This is not specific to gme.

I want to show you this. You can find this on finviz right here. This is the s p 500. Look how much just red there is the tech all these uh.

The main ones are reporting today apple reports, today, microsoft reports today, google reports today visa reports today we're just seeing in the ones um i don't amazon's, not reporting. Today, tesla already reported last night: that's dragging the market down with it, so we just have a handful of these reports going on um and clearly some people are a little hesitant about what's going on. I do want to show you one thing that i thought was a little bit interesting, walter bloomberg. Where was this? Where did i see this white house says no significant signs of economic impact from delta variant uh this this kind of cracked me up honestly, i probably should have said that if i get taken down like during the stream, you know it's just because i said these.

The the d variant uh, but overall i think this is funny because how i'm just picturing it in my mind generically it's just like no one asked and then the white house is like. Oh just so you know just to make this very, very clear. No significant signs and it's like well, no one asks - and it's like: why are you just randomly bringing this up um? So just so you know, the white house says no significant signs of economic impact from the d variant um. I just think it's like out of nowhere they're like hey, we just want to really get this across to all of you just to like just so you're sure uh seems a bit odd.

If you ask me, but um, obviously, that message alone from the white house isn't really helping out, because the spy is down one percent today, currently trading at 436., 4.36, all right uh. They also want to mandate, masks indoors again um. I heard that la was back to the point of recommending that for people who are inside um but yeah that i'm not here to talk about the politics of it, i'm not here to talk about the science of it. I just want you to know that.

Obviously it does have an impact on the overall market, and this is especially if you're new to the market. If amc and gme have brought you in, it is going to be beneficial for you to kind of take a look at what happened in february of 2020. Um so right around here february 20th, and then right in here is where things got a little bit bonkers and we went from 338 all the way down to 220. In what from february 20 to in one month, we had one month of selling and then from there all we did was climb upward and upward, and upward and upward we took a little bit of a breather, came down blah blah blah we're like well is this: It what's it gon na do and then nope fake out just kept, ripping and ripping and ripping so overall, i i don't know if my gut feeling is that we're not going to have this again, i mean that was pretty extreme, then i don't know if it Would happen like obviously it's a possibility? You should be prepared for anything but right here.


What i want to point out to you - and this is a good technical teaching lesson um, so we've known seasonally that july is very strong from basically the fourth of july right. After the extended weekend to the remainder of the month, usually pretty bullish and that's what we've seen i mean over the entire month july is up uh for the s p. 500. 2.39.

If you can see that is my head blocking that it is but over here or here let me bring this up just so you guys can see it. You see that nope, you still can't, but this is right here this says 2.39 and actually i could just show you uh what we are actually up for all of july, so this was june 30th. We are currently up two percent from this exact start of the month, but anyway, in terms of uh, a teaching lesson, let me do hang on. How do i i think right there right there and right there all right.

So hopefully we all agree at the three vertical lines that i've mapped out the overall market, the s p 500 has gone higher and higher and higher all three of them higher higher higher. What's weird is that the rsi, the relative strength index, has gone lower and lower and lower the rsi. This is a big deal and you have to understand inherently what rsi is the relative strength index. It maps out momentum.

It has values of 0 to 100. Anything above 70 is a lot of bullish momentum. It's also considered to be overbought. Anything below 30 is a lot of bearish momentum and it's also considered to be oversold.

Now there are certain environments in which you see discrepancies, and this is one of those. The market has gone higher and higher and higher. Yet we have less bullish momentum. Every time we've seen a new peak, there's been less and less bullish momentum at those levels.

So that's divergence and in this type of divergence it's referred to as bearish divergence because we're going higher but there's less bullish momentum, i.e why we call it bearish divergence. So in this scenario, the fact that we've made a new all-time high, but we have not seen a similar amount of momentum to fall through it um right here. I think this is kind of an interesting opportunity of, and i'm never ever going to be like. Oh, this is doomsday, this is it, but who knows this? If you were in this scenario now, this might just be calling for a realistic, breather, um it.


The market got a little bit ahead of itself and at this point, i'm a little hesitant to bring this up because, obviously, with a titan such as apple and microsoft, reporting it's one of those things that, if they report, if those two companies along with google, if Apple, google and microsoft all report tonight and they knock it out of the park. I would prepare for a gap up and a run, but if they all miss or if it's a mixed bag and they're like hang on, like we did okay but we're hesitant about next quarter. Something like that, if any of those companies are starting to offer a word of caution or anything along those lines, or maybe their growth wasn't as much as everyone anticipated for the last fiscal quarter. I think that we continue this down and the first support.

I would really be watching would come at 4, 31, 4. 30, something like right in this region, but overall from a technical perspective, i wanted to set you up with this um and then from a fundamental perspective. I wanted you to know what was going on with three of the major companies in the us they're all reporting tonight. So if you decide to take a some sort of a bearish bet, i mean first of all, that's up to you.

I just want you to be prepared that if they all knock out of the park, there's going to be a gap up, but if one of them really fumbles the opportunity or if they offer words of caution for the next fiscal quarter, that might make people a Little bit nervous and those three of them, i mean it, i'm not saying you have to listen to the earnings tonight, but it might be beneficial for you just to like quickly, google or check it out on twitter and know if they hit on earnings or missed On earnings, because those three together definitely have an influence on the overall market and it's interesting because it is setting up with bearish divergence in the rsi. So i just wanted to go over that. I think it's very very important and we're going to have some of our answers tomorrow. We'll know tomorrow, uh pre-market action and then we'll also know in the first 15 minutes 30 minutes of opening of if people are going to continue to be greedy or if they're going to switch over to and start being fearful.

But that's something i'll personally be paying attention to, and i like this this is on finviz f-i-n-v-i-z um. I i really do like to whoa. You can zoom in that's cool, but we can see that there is some red in consumer cyclicals, communication services and technology and basically it's the ones. We think of tesla amazon, facebook, google, microsoft, apple, red red, red, red, red, red red red red and a little bit more of red.

It also looks like ups is super red right now: united parcel service, very red down by 7.65 um a little bit interesting paypal down, so we're just seeing red across the board um right now. Obviously, amc and jamie are in the red, but i don't want you to think that it's like specific to them. It's not like they're, red and the rest of the market is running or something like that. Not really.


In fact, a lot of things are getting drugged down by the overall market and by the russell 2000, i'm just trying to fairly paint the picture, and this actually brings me to a interesting thing. I want to bring to your attention here. Let's see if there's any previously, we've talked about credit spreads um. I was kind of looking at this this one right here or actually these two, depending on how you want to play it um, you could sell a spy call and then buy another spy call.

You could do it 447 by the 448 or sell the 446 and then buy the both are calls you sell the first number you buy. The second number you're, either dealing with two calls or two puts this one's kind of interesting, because with these two two different opportunities, let me highlight them for you: the first one, your chance of profitability percent of profitability, eighty-five percent eighty-five percent on both of them. One of them you make seventeen dollars the other one. You make sixteen dollars, you're, risking eighty-three eighty-four, uh, that's your max loss! So if you like that setup, if you're willing to try to make 17 with a chance of making money in general at 85 and risking 83 to me, that's a pretty reasonable setup and we're looking at the 446 447.

When you pair that together, i mean that's up here and we're talking about early august and we see bearish divergence in the chart to me, that's a like. I, like the odds of that bet like i well i, like the odds, the odds are right here. 85 percent blah blah blah, but on top of that, when we're seeing bearish divergence in the chart, basically you're betting on it being below the first number when you're doing a call credit spread. 446.

447. I mean i like that. I think that's a pretty reasonable setup right now, uh just so you guys know this is tiblio. This is your first time seeing it it's an options.

Picker service with a credit spread uh. I do have a standalone video that better explains. What's going on with a credit spread, but overall it's either two calls or two puts. If you're talking about calls, you want it to be below the first number.

If you're talking about puts you want it to be above the first number to get your maximum profit and you always sell the first number you buy the second number, that's what you do for the credit spread and how it's set up here on tiblio uh. Let's see some of the other things going on ooh, oh well, this is even more interesting. This is a 34 return. Uh! Your max return is 34.

Your max loss is 66.. I kind of like those iods, but this is for early september, so, depending on what you think is going to happen in september, you could sell the 448 by the 449, your chance of profitability, your percentage of profitability 74 you're going to get this estimated credit, not A bad deal not a bad deal whatsoever. I can't interesting very, very interesting um, i kind of like it i kind of like taking these safe bets, because here let me get this equity clock, futures, benchmarks, sectors, benchmarks, seasonal, economic data. Where is what i want? Equity futures equity s, p.


500. I want the e-mini where's, the e-mini. I want to show you this seasonality. Why is this not loading all right? Let's just go back so we knew uh.

This is what i was referring to before of how the s p. 500. Is here we go s p 500 sp seasonal chart? No! No! No! No! No! No! No! No! Okay! I guess i just need to make an account, but if you want to go to equity clock and then go to the s p 500 futures sp, seasonal chart you'll see that july. Seasonally is strong and then august is flat if you don't want to take.

My word for it seriously just go to equity clock you can get on. I guess i've used all my free peaks, but anyway that when you have a stock, that's seasonally - or this is the s p 500, but just in general. If this seasonal trend is more of a sideways grind, that's a primo time to actually sell premium. Then, because you're not expecting really any trends, any strong trends, it's advantageous in those scenarios to be a net seller of premium because you're not expecting any major trend.

So i think that is something strong to consider today tomorrow for the remainder of the week or really as we head into august in general, because we're not expecting major trending moves in the month of august in terms of the overall market. So you can still in the market, especially when you learn more and more about options. It's beautiful, because you can learn various ways you can make more money in any environment up down sideways. The proper way of playing options will teach you how to make money in all those environments.

So if, if you're of the mindset that it's going up down or sideways, you just have to understand the i guess equivalent options trading strategy to profit off of that. Whatever your theory is whatever your thesis is, there is a option strategy that will somehow make you money if you're right in that particular call all right. Let me know if there's any questions on selling credit spreads or the s p, 500 or here. Actually, i don't think i've, given you the ortex update today, there's a net return of 1.22 million, not really the biggest we've seen bigger numbers on amc.

The short interest is estimated to be 14.74 percent gamestop, a net return of 127 million and the short interest is 13.71 uh. Once again, this website is finviz. I don't have like a link or anything it's just what it is. I like using it uh.

It's kind of cool you could see the days top gainers top losers a lot of the times. The top gainers are really cheap stocks, but for some reason, what happened with usph us physical therapy inc a huge run-up from 105 to 121 and then some of the biggest losers. Something happened with skyt skywater technologies, ircp apparently lost 70. That's horrific uh! What else do we have bt? Bt got completely destroyed bit digital inc bit digital inc software application.


I believe this actually had something to do with crypto. I think that this one might what's going on with this one. This one might continue downward strategic collaboration for further increased uh combined hash rate yeah, so this has something to do with crypto uh. This seems like a quick pump and dump type of a thing to me.

I mean it runs up and every when it should, like. Historically, when this shows strength, it runs for a little bit and then it gets demolished runs for a little bit gets demolished, runs for a little bit gets demolished, runs for a little bit gets demolished. Um, honestly, i'm surprised that this doesn't have a bit more of a run into it, but the end result seems to be the same for whatever bt bt actually is uh interesting, but finviz. You can actually have some screeners set up as well on here on benzinga scanner new window.

Let's see how this works: nope scanner in workspace, whoa scanner - let's do it over here. I haven't used benzynga's scanner. So, let's check this out, oh, we could see the biggest changes. This is pretty cool, interesting.

14 change. Previous close, oh i like this. What other columns do we have? Okay, uh ntec is up a lot a lot, a lot ooh cgn. So a lot of these are the ones we saw already filters volume.

No, we need at least a million uh exchanges price, let's go at least ten dollars. Okay, what do we have here? Apt y, a n g, a p t y, a n g, a p t, let's look at what these are doing. Apt might be a good short opportunity. This.

I would keep on my own watch list to see if i could bet against it around that 12. Mark right after the gap bill might get rejected where it was rejected today, 11.60, but i would love to see this gap fill over extended, rsi and then bet against it, and then i would just risk about a dollar a dollar 25 above it um earnings. Oh, it's getting run up into its earnings. Ah, that might be a better one to just straight up avoid y-a-n-g.

No china bear 3x. I have no. I would not touch this. I just wouldn't trade it.

What else do we have uh? Let's look for the biggest losers skyt, something real bad had happened with these ones to get absolutely dominated interesting, interesting, interesting, one um strategy that i think is a realistic strategy to run and pay attention to is looking for those pump and dumps. We we've seen that these pump and dumps they get run up. I wouldn't chase it. I would wait for the pump and dump to show weakness and then actually bet against it, because that's what a pump and dump is um.

So that is a valid strategy. That's how i know a lot of penny stock traders that do that they look for a penny stock to get pumped. They wait for it to show weakness and then they get out of said penny stock after they ride it back down. So that's something.


The only thing is, you have to be careful with it, because obviously it can keep running. So that's why you have to have very realistic risk. I like to risk like the recent run of the high and that's my wrist point, but no matter what you're doing if it's a gainer a loser, whatever it is just have a plan, have some sort of a trading plan. Keep your risk in check.

Don't just go into it completely blind or anything like that, but here's a look at some of the runners right now gainers. How do i let's see the biggest change over this last half hour? Oh, not really! Oh s, right here, b e k e is running a lot r l m d running a lot apt. Oh it's actually running apt. What is this stock alpha pro tech, health technology? I don't really like trading the this sector, medical specialties.

I wonder if they had some sort of announcement, uh we're looking at a little bit of bearish divergence like i was pointing out in the s p 500 uh on this. One apt apt may be worthwhile to dive into the news and see what's going on with this one. Who knows who knows spy bouncing? Oh, does that mean iwm is also bouncing. It is awesome, good, stuff, good stuff, all right.

Let's go back to amc, gme uh not really doing much flat 3766, but iwm and spy both making a push. Matt is shadow banned by youtube. You'll have to go directly to his channel to find his videos. Oh did people have an issue finding this i mean.

I see that my numbers are low, but i just assumed it was because, like people aren't the most uh familiar with the newest schedule, let me know if you had issues ford uh. Can you check the bull flag in florida? I made some 17 calls for august. I definitely see the bull flag that you're talking about. My question is just like: what would you, what are you risking? Are you gon na risk, this low the low from july 19th whenever you get into a trade like this uh, i i like your thesis.

I see what you're seeing my question is just like is what is your risk reward um? Are you risking this or are you risking where it's at right now around? I don't know 13.50 ish, it's just. What is your risk point uh and at what point are you looking to take profits? Are you watching 1475? Are you watching 1550? Are you going to try to scale in and scale out? I see what you're seeing, but my question is: is what at what point like it's, not necessarily showing signs of breaking out right now i mean it's been following this trend line down for quite a while ever since june, 4th so uh. My question - i don't know i haven't really been tracking, for my question is: why do you think right now is different when it's already been in this, like it's not showing signs of trying to push on that trend line? Oh iwm pushing s p 500, pushing interesting, interesting, interesting um. What else do we have? What does that question actually mean? Possibly an update video tonight to teach us how to break down earnings figured it's educational, especially since tonight's earnings are important um, i don't uh the so i have some existing earnings ones, but like there's, not necessarily a generic way to break down earnings, because every company Has different aspects that are important to its earnings, for example, um, something like tesla.


You want to know its deliveries like how many vehicles is it expected to deliver? Did it beat expectations? Does it have any commentary on how the uh super facilities are being like? How they're coming along in things like germany? Are they any commentary on political tensions with china uh? You could obviously say the same thing with apple like? Are they going to comment on any political tensions? Um from there apple people always want to know about its iphone sales. How quickly is its health services or growing? How is apple one doing every company you have to learn, what's important to its fundamentals, so there's not necessarily like one generic fundamental breakdown per company, because every company? That's? Why you, if you're becoming an investor, sometimes you have to learn about the nuances of each individual business because different things matter to that individual business, hey matt, with the eviction moratorium ending? What do you think about puts on rental management companies like maa or uder? I bought a few october puts on udr um. I see what you're saying cat facts, but why are you connecting the eviction moratorium, so why are you saying that, because they're allowed to evict, why do you think that means that these companies are going to drop um? That would be my question for you. It might be right.

I just maybe i'm not knowledgeable enough about the moratorium ending and why it would relate to a sell-off in these rental management companies. If anything, if they're allowed to kick out, people who haven't been paying, wouldn't that strengthen the business or something like that like this is like obviously you're seeing me think about it for the first time in like real time. But i i'm just curious about your theory or your thesis. You might be like hitting the the nail on the head.

I'm not saying that the rental management companies, like my specialty by any means how much is binzinga um it depends. They have a lot of different products uh. This is like just one of their products. I have pinzinga pro um.

Is that, oh, i pinned it to the top of chat and, if you like, one of the products, first of all, there's a free trial and for the remainder of july, which what there's three or four more days left just type in the discount code july 50 And you'll get 50 off. If that's something or if you just want to try the free trial, i mean it's up to you whatever you want to do whatever you want to do. People are saying so this isn't officially a turnaround. Tuesday remember a turnaround.


Tuesday is very much the monday drops by one percent or more in the overall market, like that's, actually a somewhat well-known strategy that people trade on um turnaround. Tuesday is more so monday drops by one percent or more in the s, p, 500 or the nasdaq or the russell 2000. Something along those lines. Um today is it's definitely not a turnaround tuesday, because we're on it tuesday um.

So, if anything we might just i mean we could make that up now of oh like who knows. Maybe it's like a wacky wednesday or something along that like similar to that um. A bounce back is much more statistically likely if we close down by more than one percent in general and right now, the s p 500 is down by 0.79 um, but this right now we're not setting up for a technical reaction. Tomorrow we are setting up for a fundamental reaction depending on how apple alphabet, microsoft and visa all do uh matt volume is bone.

Dry, reverse repo hit 927 billion. All i'm saying is it feels like it's time to, but can you feel it uh? The jacksons cece foster yeah, i mean remember this repo thing, a reverse repo. Is them taking money out of the system to battle inflation, they're trying to lower the overall money supply? That's what a reverse repo is federal reserve taking money from big banks because they put so much money into the system they're trying to undo what they did roughly a year ago. Six months ago i mean they were all they did was stimulus, stimulus stimulus, so much money into the system, so a reverse repo.

Is them reversing it taking money out of the system, um they're, just trying to lessen the overall likelihood of inflation hyperinflation they're just trying to like help with the money supply? Please teach me how to recognize the height of a squeeze, i'm afraid that'll rip the 78. I'm going to put my pants in excitement cell and then i'll rip to 500 moments later um john bell, there's no one who can tell you like. Oh this is the exact number we're going to. Basically, you could read the overall.

I guess you could read the tape to see if there's a lot of money still pouring in, but there's there's no perfect methodology and saying oh like this: is it like this? Is the exact number you're doing your best just to follow the trend as long as the tron exists, but like anyone out there who can tell you? Oh, like i am perfect at reading a squeeze and i talk top ticket every time? No, that's just like made up: that's just not how it works by, by its own nature, a squeeze is one of the most violent volatile things in the stock market. It happens, uh, it's just very, very extreme by all definitions of the word uh, so just to think that you can calmly read it and be like oh, like we're slowly tracking up to this number. That's not really a squeeze like if you maybe a good indication, is looking at amc on june 2nd but understand that's only. It depends on how you want to define a short squeeze so on june 2nd.


Do we know that some shorts covered? Yes, a minority of shorts covered on june, 2nd. So imagine that but like you have to amplify it even more, because i think that was the coverage of about 30 million shares when right now we're at 95 million um. So it would be even more violent than june 2nd, so you could look at that and be like okay. This is kind of how it looks, but when you're picturing the squeeze based on the numbers right now, as i'm saying this - and this could change tomorrow - it could change in the remainder of today.

Um, it would just be bigger and more bigger and more is how it would end up playing out. You think finance channels disappear when it squeezes um. No, i don't think so. I mean i my i think about it like this of what happened was if youtube truly had an issue with me like.

If someone at youtube had an issue with me, particularly then, why would they have given back my channel in like two hours um? If anything, i think this is an outside force that had a coordinated attack against me against tmi and um. They somehow like found a loophole in youtube system that i mean it was obviously like. If i had to guess, i would guess that it's bogus reporting and they found a loophole to get by youtube system of fact, like fact-checking bogus reporting um. So it depends, i mean if we disappear, i think it's just because they figured out another loophole in bogus reporting.

This is tin, foil, hat stuff, though this is my own theory but like if we just think about this logically, like if youtube particularly had an issue with me, why would they have given back my account in two hours? I think there's another player or players in general that don't want us talking about what we're talking about and they attacked us and i hope, in the future, youtube's either better at seeing that or like same thing of like oh, if they find out another loophole, they Close that loophole and they they reinstate the accounts right away, but whether youtube or some other entity or groups of people. Obviously someone doesn't want us talking. That's what i know. So i guess to answer your question.

You think finance channels disappear when it squeezes uh. If they do, i hope for it's for a very short amount of time. Uh. I hope that's how it plays out.

I hope that's how it i don't know. I don't know i i hope it goes, but all all i know - and this is what i was saying in my thank you video is, i don't have any definitive answer. I'm told it's a mistake and maybe that's what they're referring to as a mistake. Maybe they said yeah like you were uh, inappropriately reported and it somehow found a loophole where we didn't realize that it was like a coordinated attempt against you.


We thought they were legitimate reports and we took your channel down because you got a lot of reports. That's kind of my gut instinct, so i i hope this system improves and isn't just like. I don't know. I hope that channels like mine and tmis, somehow get white listed where if there are a lot of reports instead of just terminating it, i don't see why they wouldn't just have a human review it and be like oh okay, like we shouldn't terminate this channel.

So i hope we get. I hope fingers crossed that we get put on some sort of like special list where, if we are reported instead of just automatically terminating it, i hope a human actually has to review it, because, if you've seen any of my content, you know none of it is Breaking terms of service, none of it is harmful and dangerous. It's just absurd. It's absolutely clinically insane! So right now, that's my going theory.

Is that there's some other entity out there? I don't know if it's related to wall street. I don't know if it's some group of just like troll keyboard warriors that know how to code a bit. I don't know who it is, but that's kind of what it feels like. What's a boom boom candle thanks for all you do new guy a boom boom candle is basically one giant green candle explosion upward.

That's a boom boom candle, um iwm, making a fight back s, p 500, making a fight back. I believe, and someone please correct me if i'm wrong, i i think the the fed is actually saying fedmin is coming out meeting is that tomorrow i believe it's this wednesday. The 28th july july july u.s treasury yields fell tuesday with the federal reserve two-day policy meeting underway uh. So there is a policy meeting going on obviously two days it concludes tomorrow.

Let's see, let's see, let's see, can i get any information? What did bloomberg fed will? Punt on the economy, inflation and asset prices, this was written today early this morning, uh chair, jerome powell must deal with growing dissension within his ranks and intensifying expectations for cutting back on bond purchases, and just so you know that's how, when you hear just the general Comment that the federal reserve has been backstocking the economy and the stock market, that's how they're doing it is they're buying a bunch of these bonds, treasury bonds, corporate bonds, they're just buying a bunch of bonds and that's the actual mechanism in which they're backstopping. It is they're giving they're pumping money into the economy by buying bonds by buying corporate bonds, treasury bonds, all that good jazz, that's how they're actually mechanically doing it. I heard that you kicked someone out of chat and said another one beheaded dumbbot. That happened the first time around in april uh.

I haven't used that in a while. So i know that that was some people's theory, but that was a while ago and what it was was so that stream on friday was the one that allegedly broke the terms of service. And if you watched that video that term beheaded was not used whatsoever. So that's not really um to me.


That's not a reasonable explanation of what did or didn't happen. Are you worried about br vg will dump early and drop the squeeze? Are you worried that blackrock or vanguard will dump early and drop the price uh? I'm not really worried about it, i mean if they sold, it would drop the price, but i don't think they feel any pressure to sell right now, because they're up a lot, a lot of money um, but obviously, if blackrock or vanguard sold their holding in amc Of course, it would tell because it would sell off because they have a huge amount, but i don't know why they would want to do that right now, when they're up a lot of money, i don't feel i don't think they feel the pressure to sell right Now matt excited to have you back? Are you emotionally ready for whatever comes next? How does it feel to know that you have so much support behind you? Does that help um? Am i emotionally redder uh? I would say so because i mean at this point we've seen the doldrums we've seen: the giant upswings we've seen the stock getting beaten down, we've seen our motions high low sideways, so i feel, like we've kind of been through the entire gambit. How does it feel to know that you have so much support behind you honestly? That's the part that i have a hard time articulating to just know that there's literally tens of thousands of people supporting me and supporting this overall like effort, it's absolutely phenomenal um. I i guess that's the part like how does that feel? Oh, i don't know how to how to word that it's it's insane to be on this side of it when there's so many people, and i think one of it is okay.

So, for example, a lot of the times i think uh a lot of my s. My support is like the silent majority, and so, like you see these people running their mouth on some form of social media that they don't like me and they're. Just like insanely jealous i mean there's a good chance. I mean right now, there's about 10 000 people watching they're, directly jealous of our community and what we have going on and the fact that we're just making money, um they're just really really jealous.

They feel like they're on the outside of the party um, and it's those people who go out of their way to write something on social media like seriously think about that in your normal life. Why would anyone take the time to say something negative? It is literally a waste of time because, like as if i'm gon na change, what i'm doing or saying because of some random comment that there's a 99 chance that i miss anyway, because i'm just like not reading it um most of the time when i see It it's because someone sends something to me: they're like yo. Did you see this? It's crazy uh and then i'm like? Oh no, i miss it. Okay, like it sucks to be them.


Most of us here are, like i said, the silent majority, the silent majority you're here to learn you're at work right now, you're doing some work, you're learning about the market, you're getting an update of. What's going on and you're like okay cool and then you go home and you hang out with your wife boyfriend husband, whatever uh girlfriend, like whatever you're like you're hanging out with your dog, your kids you're, going to what you're working out like you have things to Do because you're living a normal life, you don't have the time to like share your opinion on the internet like you're. Just doing other things you're going to the grocery store you're going to a show you're working out like i don't care but you're doing something um. So these people, who take their time out of the day to like, say something negative like i honestly feel for them, because i question like well what do they like what's going on in that in their life, that they possibly have something negative to say and they Feel that they like just need to share that opinion.

It blows my mind and then you have events like friday, where the silent majority, all of a sudden, you have an event that they feel they have the need to like speak up. First of all, on the internet, it's very easy to find a lot of negative, but within an hour an hour and a half free, math coors was trending. That blows my mind: the amount of people who went out of their way of like hey they, they were living their whatever their life and they're like no. No.

This is something i need to stand up. For i mean it was tens of thousands like within an hour hour and a half there's like 25 000 tweets retweets mentions whatever you're gon na call it, and that was just on twitter um, the amount of dms i got it was at the the outpouring of Support was not just more than like. I guess anyone would be like. Oh whoa, that's crazy, it was.

It was truly amazing like it just like it was non-stop like don't quit. We have your back people privately messaging me publicly. Messaging me. People like meet kevin.

Bringing me on messages from charles payne like across the board. It made me so so happy to say i'm a member of ape nation uh. The outpouring was just absolutely beautiful, uh you're out you're out doing something going out going to the gym. I don't know i don't care well, it's just like, let's be honest like if, and i really do feel for them.

It's it's weird because when i see someone so negatively outspoken against me when they take the time - and i see these names and they do it like multiple times like they just like - have a sick obsession with me with this community, i feel for them because that's The sign to me that, like i feel bad for them, like, i really really do like it seems like they don't have something else better going on in their life and i feel like if they had something else going on, that they could be passionate about. They. Wouldn't be directing their anger and their angst towards me. So when i see that, like my reaction, is that, like i hope they find what they're looking for, because obviously them just like holding this heart like this really hot coal, which is like the anger towards me, i feel for them like, because that's not a good Way to live uh at all and hey if you're listening right now and like my existence, pisses you off, hey, i'm sorry, that's not my goal, but don't watch me like.


I see it across the board. People complaining about everything um for whatever it is. If they just don't like the way i talk, if they don't like the fact that people super chat me if they don't like the fact that people use the affiliate links um, my solution is just go. Watch.

Someone else it's literally that simple, there are hundreds of thousands of creators in this world and if i'm not the person who like makes, you feel good about your life and somehow like, i want to be a benefit to your life and if i'm not a benefit And at worst, even like something, that's bringing down your like emotional state per day. Don't watch me. It's literally that simple people have like a weird obsession with like loving to hate on someone. It's like go just go.

Do something else, man, it's that easy and as we're ranting amc coming back bouncing off of 37 pushing uh 38.50, it looks like it wants to make a run to sweet. Let's do it, let's do it, let's do it. Let's do it. What do you think about a market crash? What would that mean for amc? Would we still name our price if we weren't selling correct, they still have to cover remember when people are talking about, we name our price.

That means that you are willing to sell your shares, because, if you're willing to sell your shares, that means that someone can buy it off of you and the person buying it off of you could be a short that's covering. So it's that concept of. If we would still name our price, if we weren't selling correct any exchange and there's actually other creators out there, who unfortunately don't understand this concept with any buyer, there is a seller with any seller. There is a buyer, so this concept of we name our price.

That's only true if no one in the entire world is selling and then as soon as someone decides to sell their shares. Well, that means that someone like us, a short, would theoretically be able to cover their shares because they can buy and you can sell. But whenever you look at volume, that's what it is. It's just when a seller and a buyer agree upon a price for a certain amount of shares and a trade goes through um.

It depends on who you like and that the other side of the trade it could be. It could be another retail trader. It could be a bank, it could be a hedge fund, it could be a market maker, it could be a high frequency trader, it could be anyone um, but inherently that's like think about, like we are literally trading stock, um think about it back in the day. If you were trading, i don't know baseball cards or if you were trading pokemon cards, it was always a trade with some sort of buyer.


There was some sort of seller, you don't just buy from the ether, you don't sell into the ether and i think mechanically. That's very very important to understand because we're seeing that there are people who don't understand that, and it's very very important that you do understand that we are never leaving. We are here to say shout out the mike and brian show with the new sr nscc202101 uh citadel can use cash. They get on a loan to short stock further or they obligated to use that cash to cover um.

I don't think it works that way. In general, hang on, let me re-read this: can citadel use the cash they get on loan to short the stock? Further? No, no. They can use stock that they own to post collateral. If they have any like, i guess general requirement um, they wouldn't be using their their initial stock to create an entire new position.

It's just saying that this stock they currently own, can be used as collateral um. This is not something that is directly related to created, creating a new short position. Um this. I think your mind's going to be a lot lot more clear on what this loaning thing is with trey's new video tonight so be on the lookout for it.

But we were talking last night. We were talking this morning to get it squared away, and this is just another thing that i think is being overstated, and people are like these new nscc rules, the occ rules, the dtcc rules. These are not rules. The sec and finra is not making a new rule directly for amc directly for gme.

This is just for stock market functionality at large um, don't think of it as like, oh they're, making a rule for or against amc or gme. My girl gets upset every time amc is down. I keep reminding her how much up my p l is for the year she thinks uh. She thanks you for your skill.

Sharing here shout out spinning patchwork cat matt. My mom was dragging me around ikea. While you got banned, i feel bad to say: your band gave me so much needed entertainment free mad cores. Please stop ranting about the fudsters, the real ones, get it.

How about a good thing? That's happened to you. Lately i mean i wasn't really ranting about it. I was like, i guess, just answering a previous question. A good thing that's happened.

Lately is almost i mean. The major thing is on friday over the weekend of like how insane the support is from this community. It's it's very much a 99 versus one uh, a 99.9 versus a point, one thing of like the support and the words of affirmation and just like the overall, like just positive commentary, it's so incredibly overwhelmingly positive versus negative um. It's insane how much the positivity outweighs the negativity.


I have to hide my passion for you in a dark pool. I just don't want people to see how much it really does. Please continue. Ranting amc is moving up shout out banana.

I punished an adult every time. I hit their executive washroom after talk about night, i'm never rude in naked shorts. Offend me, scott, hey about the nscc010. Can we at least assume that the squeeze won't happen before the hedges get their live line, or is that already active um? I do not think that this nscc thing will impact the amc, gme squeeze positively or negatively.

I think it's a neutral thing. Um remember: these rules are made for the stock market at large to backstop it if things hit the fan um, this amc and jimmy are in their own lane, and what we're looking for is the fact that there's still a lot of shares, betting against it. We're looking for some sort of technical breakout that puts a lot of pressure on the shorts and forces them to cover this new rule or really any rule. None of these rules are forcing people to cover.

None of these rules are making it easier, so they don't have to cover for them. It is still a trade that, when there's enough pain on them, they're going to cut their cause position by buying back shares and then, as enough shorts, buy back shares. That's when we see a short squeeze, a lot of people are trying to make connections between the new rules, helping or hampering the squeeze, and if there's one thing that we've learned over the past six months is none of that has ever ever ever come to fruition. I don't know why this particular one would do anything now, like i don't see, what's so special about this new rule, and i don't think there is anything special so with this rule man i mean, i think it's going to be one of those things where people Are like oh it's in effect now and then the next day is just going to be a quote unquote, another normal day in the stock market.

Do you mess with crypto as well? You should check out baby shark token, give it a go um. So i am in crypto i'm in bitcoin, i'm in ethereum. I have some doge. I have some cardano.

I have some algorand, but i'm not actively training it. I buy it on major dips and then i just i'm planning on waiting a decade plus it's a long term hold. I feel that i'll either be really really right or really really wrong. Matt.

Is there really a controlled melt up um? This is the first time i'm hearing that terminology. I don't uh a controlled melt-up, controlled melt-up. I i don't know. I guess what you mean by that i've heard melt up and i've heard the term controlled squeeze uh.

I don't believe in this concept of a controlled squeeze and i have heard melt up and that's actually what we've already kind of been seeing. So i do believe in this concept of a melt up because that's what this is in the overall market kind of just slowly but surely making a new high new high, not any massive moves upward, but just slowly like okay, another new high another new high another New high, a slow but sure type of a thing has the insider training played a significant part in this downtrend. It was reported to the sec for june that 223 000 shares were sold by executives. I don't think so because think about how small 223 000 is today alone, we've traded, 49 million 223 000 is a drop in the bucket um.


It's super super small and also remember if, if executives sold, 223 000 shares, that means that someone else potentially an eight potentially a hedge fund, potentially market maker, someone out there or a group of people bought 223 000. Remember whenever you're hearing these said headlines of someone sold whatever i'll, just like a million shares, that also means that someone bought a million shares with any seller. There is a buyer one year ago. I never imagined that i would consider a content creator to be one of the my closest homies.

Thank you love you bro. Thanks for all your knowledge, jeff, i love you man. I appreciate the support matt. Could you take a look at ipa? For me, they recently had an nr of successful neutralizing, the dv total to the moon.

Ipa. I mean that sounds like it's going to be very binary focus. Oh this to me looks like a very classic. I guess biotech health technology pump and dump it pumped up and it's already getting crushed.

I wouldn't play this at all, but if i had to, i would bet against it for a gap filled down to 562.. Maybe it catches itself and starts to turn back around and then it might become a different story, but this looks like a one day pump and dump. We see you're going to see this time and time again, and this seems to be another example of it. Another example of it, thanks for all you do manuel, my girlfriend has a pt cruiser wants to race.

Your mom make it happen tulips and cheez-its at the finish line. What's going on chief, do they have to cover synthetics first or they can cover 15-ish and stop pretending like the squeeze, is over and wait for the price to come back down and cover their rest, um um. So this is a bit of a terminology. Misunderstanding you! Don't cover a synthetic uh, a synthetic is the shera that is created from a naked short.

So you would cover the naked short because if you own a synthetic share you're long on it, a synthetic share is the byproduct of a naked short. So with that quick fix in terminology, do you cover a naked short first um, there's a decent chance that a hedge fund, who has a naked short position, might not even know that they have a naked short position because remember, a hedge fund calls up a prime Broker and says: hey, i want to short, they say: okay, because they're trying to get their business because that's how they get paid and they let them short, and then it becomes a naked short when the prime broker never locates the shares too short. So maybe the hedge fund knows maybe the hedge fund doesn't know, but in this scenario the onus is on the prime broker to fix the naked short that they allowed to be created. That's very, very important.


That's one type of naked shorting and that type is created by prime brokers. So culprit number one is prime brokers allowing shorting without locating shares. Hence it becoming a naked short. So with that, are they covered first well? No, not necessarily it's! The hedge fund decides when they want to get out of the position if they're not ever forced to cover, but in the scenario there might be risk on the prime broker to buy that same equivalent amount of shares off the market to resolve the ftd.

That's scenario: number one scenario: number two is more so related to market makers. Market makers are allowed to take kind of a short position whenever they want even without locating shares. So that means remember: market makers, the name of the game for a market maker. A market maker is like a very fancy.

Schmancy high frequency trader and their overall goal is to profit by providing liquidity to the market. They are filling out the bid in the ask. So sometimes, when you're filling out the ask that means that you're selling stock and they're allowed to sell stock without locating shares to sell, so they might end up creating a naked, a net short position without locating those shares um. So that's actually culprit number two of people who can create naked shorts, so culprit number one prime brokers and that's more so dealing with hedge funds and other entities that are allowed that they're allowing them to go short without locating shares, and just so you know that Is illegal, market makers are allowed to go short and they actually have a short exempt thing and that's more of okay, they're they're, creating a naked short position and, like i said, though, they're exempt in certain scenarios.

So they're culprit number two um, but it's good for you to all understand that there are two different players that can create naked short positions. Mechanically, it's done for two different reasons: mechanically. It's actually created for two different methodologies: um, but when you're talking about naked shorts just know it can come from prime brokers and it can also come from market makers and they both have different ways of how they're supposed to resolve them. Could they cover the 15 and still have naked shorts out there? Yes, that is theoretically possible.

You could theoretically cover this entire short interest and the short interest on ortex would show zero and there could still be short, naked shorts out there. That we're unaware of remember with naked shorts. They are not reported. You can look at.


You can get an indication from the short exempt numbers from market makers and you could also look at the ftds, but once again, that's not the full picture because there's a way there are ways around that system. Let me explain the ways around that system, so even if you're like well hang on there's no short interest, the ftds are there's none and there's no reported short exempts. So at that point, are we out of the woods? Does that mean all shorts, legal and illegal? Have covered, unfortunately, the answer is still no. Let's take this with market makers.

First, market makers could be net short with a naked short position and they might buy really deep in the money calls off of a buddy like virtue and be like whoa whoa whoa we're net long like and then that's how they cover up a short position. They could be like no we're actually net neutral when really they're, not they on paper, look like they're net neutral but inherently they're, not because they're actually net short in terms of stock, and they brought themselves up to being net neutral through the options market.

19 thoughts on “Ape nation: to the moon dumb money ep 12”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Oscar Santillana says:

    Matt " these hedge funds would never do: ๐Ÿ˜ค

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Oscar Santillana says:

    You know nothing matt kohrs

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars silent ninja says:

    What do you mean it doesn't make sense… stock are unlimited on the up side. On the downside you can short a company into bankruptcy and you win the big one… so yeah… it would make sense to do matt.. sorry

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Amor Fati says:

    Matk Twain " history doesn't repeat itself it rhythms

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jarek Loovali says:

    What king of argument is that? Why do you think gark pools cant be used to manipulate prize higher?
    Sme have explained how dark pools are probably used to manipulate the prize. If you disagree with those explanations you should make clear where those going wrong. And if dark pools cant be manipulate the prize why more and more AMC, GME, etc trades have been going through dark pools. What's the benefit of it?

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Carlos Zambrano says:

    Adelante amigo Matt, nos alegra tenerte al frente , muchos saludos y Bendiciones desde Ecuador.

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Nicholas Pappajohn says:

    Did you see the last candle, at market close? Went to a HUGE green then went red??????????

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars outgone jeramey says:

    Only when you've sat with real anaIysts with ย years of trading experience ย to their name and carefully briefed on how these market structure work, you'd just be a blind man trying to make his way in a city full of numerous equally blind people, from experience a dip in crypto market value is a very interesting yet advantageous part of how the market work, Btc and Eth(slight dip) can be attributed to the huge coin sales from investor of late. I've got a lot of crypto in my possession, but a dip has never been my problem, dips just merely provides avenue to acquire more trading equity, trading definitely ticks the dot. Trading though is serious business that should only be done under the right strategy and guide, I've readily employed using signals from trade anaIyst Henry Wilson. while carrying out personal sessions with amazing returns, this way I accumuIate crypto trading and buy from dips. You can easily get to Henry on Telegram? ( @henry_connect ) for Crypto related issues

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Paloma shdez says:

    From my understanding, the purpose of buying AMC stock is to maintain a steady cash flow but AMC tend to be slow and boring if you're not planning to retire soon. I've rather opted for a more aggressive approach and so far i've made close to $375K in raw profits from just q4 of 2021. Investing has no one way to it. Feel the pain of discipline early or feel the pain of regret later. I wish everyone well!

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Pedro dos Santos says:

    TURST the process… BUY and HOLD AMC as much as you can no matter what… ๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿป๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป๐Ÿ™Œ๐Ÿป๐Ÿฆ๐Ÿš€

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars shtoksy says:

    Very glad to see you again , my friend! ๐Ÿ™‚

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Meh he he says:

    Yo

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Eh, Yo! Narkill says:

    Gang!

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Pokey Johnson says:

    Pokey the Black Market God is not predicting a market crash. Personally havenโ€™t seen one since 2008. Thatโ€™s a real crash. Donโ€™t like that term thrown around lightly. Pokey thinks the following stock; AVPT, BNGO, LCID, CHPT, CTRM, FCEL, FSR, INSG, LAZR, NNDM, NVCN, PLTR, SNDL, TTCF, and UAVS will not trade above their 52 week highs anytime in the near future, in fact there will be more pain in the near future. I can see them losing another 50% or more of value over the next year or so. These stocks are going to get killed. Itโ€™s going to be a blood bath! Donโ€™t want to see anybody get hurt.

    On the other hand ORLA outlook over the next few months looks great. This stock is trying to put in a bottom. I see this stock going up over $35 a share in the next 1-2 years. Very strong support below $3 and great support at $2.50, I donโ€™t see this stock going below $1. If it goes below $1 dollar I will be puking this stock. I am also working orders to sell the ORLA July $2.50 Puts. Thatโ€™s my commentary for right now. You know this stuff is like taking candy from a baby!!!!!!!

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars On YT Salty's Options: Etherum 1# Layer DABS says:

    Stop talking about dark pools dummy no more dark pools AMC to the Moon

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mark Harrington says:

    Where are my tendies

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Just Your Average Explorers says:

    ๐Ÿ’Ž ๐Ÿ’Ž๐Ÿ’Ž

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Angelfish says:

    Please ask a pro to explain this controlled squeeze which is really a controlled market crash. Does this mean apes will be cheated out of a higher price to save citadel? Seems like it

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars JB Loague says:

    ๐Ÿ’Ž

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