Thank you! I Think it's appropriate for me to now address some of the things that have been going on and if you haven't been seeing the interwebs lately, one of the biggest things is this concept that I do Not drink cappuccinos. So I've been carrying around this guilt for like a long long time that I've been drinking espresso straight I just can't keep milk properly. it spoils so so fast and then if I buy the big milk it just spoils and then I get mad and then it fills up too much of my garbage. when I throw it out and then sometimes I try to buy the small milk and like then I don't have the right and then they're like you could just drink like ice lattes and it's like but don't you have to frost the milk and they're like no you just put it in and I'm like why'd I just throw out my milk and it just I can't keep buying it like it just spoils and then it smells weird and then sometimes that like Cheerios at night and I put the milk in but it's bad milk and I don't know until I eat the first bite of Cheerios and it just gets so bad I hope you can understand and all I'll do my best to improve these actions moving forward.

I want to know something really funny? So I get a text from my mom this morning. Happy Birthday Matthew Thanks Mom she's like I'm coming by your apartment I have something for you meet me outside that's like sick so before a stream I go out I'm waiting for my mom watching some Tick Tock watching some Tick Tock She pulls up, she gets out, gives me a hug. Happy Birthday! Matthew She's like I got something for you This is in your present I Just thought you'd like it. She hands me a container I open said container I Swear this happened.

My mom got me a container of honeydew brother. My apologies, my apologies, my apologies I am sorry for being late to class I Was just trying to figure out what in the world is going on what in tarnation is going on? We have another inflation report coming out in a mere three minutes the producer price index. So I Want to go over that. Live with you guys, Watch the market and watch its reaction.

Live the Credit Suisse Big bank that's been on tilt for a while. not necessarily associated with the whole Svb thing and just the pressure on the banking sector, but because it was already a little weak, the newest developments have been causing credits we sticker symbol CS to absolutely plummet. It was trading at 250 yesterday, currently trading at 185 down 26 so it looks like another bank is going completely could put. um so I Want to cover that? we got to go over the new inflation report.

Then we also have retail sales also coming out at 8 30.. So we have two macroeconomic reports about to come out. We are already got some updates about mortgage and then I want to go on some just like some craziness. Um, there are people who are once again getting screwed over by Robin Hood Right now we have some interesting updates from Macaro icon so there's a lot going on.

that's why I Just wanted to start class a little early. Once again, my apologies for being slightly late in the new early class. I Just want to make sure I had all my ducks in an order early this morning. before we get into all of it.

Shout out to Public for sponsoring today's stream. They now are offering a government-backed 4.7 yield and this is all through treasury bills and we're going to have more on that in a second. But if you want to be like hey, hey, the markets are a little rough right now, maybe this isn't the best time to be investing. Well, you can still do something better with your money than just getting it.

like the little savings account yield that you get from whatever Bank you're in, you can get a 4.7 yield locked in, fixed. uh, it is pinned to the top of chat it's in the description of the video I know for a lot of you you're already on public. It's a non-payment forward or flow brokerage so you could just put some of the money into the yield product if you so choose. It's all done through treasury bills.

I'll talk about it more a little bit later, but the tldr of it right now is, if you think the Market's a little bit wonky, well, that might be a better option for all of you pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. but I will touch on it later on. And with all that being said, let me switch this up so you can see the market. Look at the cocaine bear coming across.

anyway. Market Popped into close yesterday, went sideways until about four in the morning, and then absolutely vomited. So that's the situation that we're dealing with early early this morning and let me just get this ready for us so we can know once again the here it should be starting pretty momentarily. Here's what's coming out once again: I Put all this stuff in the newsletter, but early this morning we are getting retail sales.

We're getting the Producer Price Index and we're also getting Empire State Manufacturing all coming out at 8 30. If if you like these little cheat sheets once again, you could get it in the newsletter for free. but let's see what's going on. We're about to get Retail Sales Producer Price Index Welcome back to Squawk Box Rick Santelli Here live at C M E HQ With some important breaking news, a lot of important breaking news.

Let's start out with our February reads on the Producer Price index Expected to be up three tenths. Buckle up people down one tenth of one percent, Down one tenth of a half percent. We all know that in December it was down two times. Wow.

So we are revised. Obviously that is an important issue. Wow. When you get back in negative territory, you're actually lowering some of those prices.

That's actually pretty good. Strip out the all-important energy a much lower number unchanged. Expected up four tens, strip out food energy and trade up two tenths. Expecting up three tens up two tenths equals the best numbers that we've had going all the way back to January of 21 And that of course was last month.

It was a market like in this so far. excuse me, that was November Uh, December of last year. December Cooling off, we got some nice cool numbers. Now year over year.

probably the most important. Year over year. we're expecting 5.4 4.6 on year over year 4.6 That is the last level going back to coming in real cool this morning. Real cool energy year over year 0.4 4.4 and the high water mark there.

Just so people realize how far we have come, the high water mark there was 9.7 If we strip out food energy and trade, it's also up 4.4 So these numbers have really come down rather dramatically that four points numbers coming down Nice. Nice, nice, nice, nice, nice nice. These are some cool numbers. Um, a little bit under under three and a half percent, which would be bullish for the market right now.

A blowout negative number at minus 24.6 Now let's go for details. All right, Retail sales. Listen up down four tenths of one percent Exactly as expected. All right, retail sales hit expectations minus 1.1 if you strip out Autos it is down one tenth of one percent.

Also the weakest since December Exactly as we expected. And if we look at retail sales X autos and gas stations unchanged, unchanged, we're expecting down two tenths one percent. So far, that's about the only bright spot. but remember sequentially, that's following 2.8 And finally, the control group that gets used in other higher up the food chain economic data points up a half one percent.

That isn't too bad considering a path one percent is only as good as our last look, which was up 2.3 and that happened to be the best of all of last year's interesting, interesting interest rates have moved down. not like in retail sales. So much producer price index. Pop things up.

Retail sales Flight to Safety has taken a big bite out of all the buying that has already occurred in adding some energy seem to be coming down a little bit. Bonds going up pre-opening equities of course Very Meager, interesting and interesting. Interesting concentration on Europe I Would just say two words: negative rates. Anybody who is surprised that when we are close to what 19 trillion and negative rates much of which was in Europe that ultimately that this would have to happen I would be shocked if we didn't see volatility in a banking system that was anything but profitable I Like how he is down 27 right now Rick Thank you Steve Leesman joins us.

How does this factor into the Feds mix those factors to weigh well? This PPI report is a very good report if you're fighting inflation. it shows that there is less inflation up the Uh inflation chain here. and there's some things in here that are in line with what folks thought was going to happen in the process of bringing down inflation. The one that stands out to me a couple of them: the Uh: PPI For trade.

it's a proxy for margins being down eight tenths of a percent transportation and warehousing. Melissa As you know, we've been following some of the declines in shipping out there that's down 1.1 percent. Uh, and then of course there was the energy decline. Uh, so overall I think this is a positive number for the outlook for inflation.

Yeah, it does. Maybe I can leave. I mean it's just PPI along with what's happening in CPI Also, it could be worse. Same processed goods for intermediate demand up four tenths.

and then the other thing is I'm going to take a pass on judging the retail sales number in part because January was a real outlier. We think we had more spending is normal February could just be a kind of uh, bounce back or Bounce Down from that I guess is the way to put it. So um, here we are and I just want to say what to tell you what's happened to the FED fund Futures here. Uh Melissa which is, uh, now we're 50.

Well, we were 50 50 for a minute. Now we're still banking on that cut. There's a weird trade out of banking on the cards guys. When I get off air here and I'm going to ask them what's going on, you have this quarter point still is of more than 50 probability for March but after that, if you look at that, January 24 Contracting Straight down and tremendous amounts of cuts are now built in for the back end of this curve here.

Wow. Um, Steve Thank you Steve Leesman Okay, uh, not excluding our investor Mike Novograts. We're going to talk to him about this morning's Market sell-off We'll also talk about Bitcoin's rally on the other side galaxy Galaxy wholesale prices unexpected decline to point. Um, so people.

even as Leesman explained, a little hesitant to throw out his opinion on retail sales. but in terms of the producer price index I would actually say it was a little bullish. now. Grand we have the Pce report.

We have the CPI report. I would say people react more to Consumers and personal expenditures than they do to the producing side of things. So I wouldn't say these have the same weight at least in terms of the recent Market reactions. So I'm not going to wait at the same.

I'm not going to say that this like completely undoes what we've recently been seeing, but it is a bit bullish there. It definitely is a bit bullish. so hey, that's definitely a positive. Definitely, definitely definitely a positive.

So I like what we have going on there. Uh, retail sales? It's interesting. I mean if you guys remember what happened in January or like the last repeat January's numbers that we got in February Um, they are clearly now outlier and as Steve Liesman pointed out, it seems like we're just coming back down from like we're coming back down to reality so maybe it's hard to interpret it. How's the market doing right now? Yeah, uh.

well. kind of unchanged here if I zoom out. I Mean it. People like the fact that the producer price index was surprisingly cool, as in costs are coming down for producers, but now with retail sales I Guess unchanged I think I think what was in here was we kind of had a good report with the producer price index, but now people are like it wasn't good enough to actually overcome what's currently happening in credit.

Suites If you haven't seen what's going on in Credit Suisse Big old bank. it is getting absolutely annihilated. It's been getting annihilated for a while now. As you can see from the fact that in March of 2021 it was shutting at 15 and now it's all the way down to a dollar 81 currently in pre-market like we're getting another massive gap down this.

this company is doing a Usain Bolt style Sprint to zero like it feels like this one's getting absolutely crushed I Wish I sure did it I wish I had to play on it I don't I don't think I've ever traded Credit Suisse But I think this is now once again renewing fear in the banking sector. That is what's going on in the market right now is. over the end of last week, banking sector seemed a little bit sus. Then it seems like over the weekend particularly Sunday that regulators and everyone stepped in potentially saved it.

and now once again the fears are getting renewed. What do we have going on? 167 points the S P 500 off about 74 points this on the back of what we're seeing out of Europe European uh markets down across the board in large part on the back of uh Credit Swiss which is now off something like 30 percent this morning. About as nervousness about those Banks uh persist. Yeah, 27 banks are getting destroyed right? I Want to bring in a top investor to talk about this morning's pre-market sell-off Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz joins us in an exclusive interview.

Mike What do you think's going on here? Listen, you know this reminds me a lot of 2018. December When the FED had this idea of one last hike and of course it sent the markets into a tailspin, they had to reverse it soon after. Uh, in a short period of time, information has changed dramatically. The commodity Market is telling you.

uh. oil Market is telling you that we're heading into a recession. We are going to have a credit crunch in the U.S and globally and so fixed income. Commodities I'll tell you we're heading to recession pal should pause and we'll be cutting rates sooner than we think.

And so that's a huge shift in. Psychology It's got Bitcoin and Ethereum on the move. If there was ever a time to be in Bitcoin and crypto, this is why it was created in that government's printing. Too much money has popped quite a bit and we're seeing that.

I I Get that to some degree. I Also think that basically the bailouts by the United States helped stabilize things like the stable coin uh, which was pegged to the dollar as you know and you saw where crypto had fallen as a function of all of that. But I Think the larger question right now in this in is are we in a I Don't want to call it a game because it's not a game. but is this Domino's Do do you see? uh, the possibility of contagion in our banking system? Do you think it's limited to what's happened in Europe Do you think what happened with Svb is enough? Listen, there is Contagion Your people learn their lessons and so we're going to move towards four or five big depository institutions unless the FED goes One Step Don't like that and de facto the consolidation of power in big banks? That sounds like an awful idea, but they really didn't.

An awful idea. Oh my. God My money could be tied up for a week or my money could like. Why am I taking any risk like that story is out there.

it's hard to put it back in the Box Uh, and you know, maybe yesterday it felt like well, maybe it'll get back in the box and another guy guy hits. and so I think that the Congress and the FED is gonna have to do something more dramatic on deposits or we're going to see a constant pressure on these Regional banks in the whole system, right? And so now you've got to come. A market that's going to go into a credit crunch? How do banks rebuild Capital They they lend less and so you're going to see a credit crunch happening in the United States and that's starting to get priced in the market in a dramatic way. So Mike Your macro guy.

So putting that hat on, what are what do you look to in this environment? If you are a believer that there's a looming credit crunch globally, um, then what are the trades off of that I think gold and silver. Yeah, now two's thirties is steep enough points in five days and so it's going to be really volatile. But if you go back and look when that chart turns, it turns for long periods of time and so you want to be in yield. Curve steepers will be long goals and you want to be long Bitcoin like Bitcoin was built for this really pumping BTC those are I Mean that's that's right.

They probably go down first and then you know bounce because the Fed's shifting policy and Pal's got a really tough job he was just two weeks ago. you know, talking about like on a race rates to six percent or higher and now they're gonna be like oops. Uh, listen, there's an old adage the FED hikes rates until something breaks last Friday something broke and now we're seeing lots of things break and so at a bare minimum they're going to pause. Uh, I Think they'd like to do a dovish hike just for credibility's sake? That would be a huge policy here.

Do we finally see um, real cracks in the credit? Market as as displayed in let's say A J and K or Hyg which helped you know held up pretty decently since October low is steady I think you will I think you will um again, if nothing else, the nervousness in the investor Community right Ctas are getting, you know all stopped out of the position. They're all one way. A lot of uh RV fixed income hedge funds are having really tough, tough runs of it. and so when people lose money, when volatility expands, risk comes down and so we're in this massive risk off.

Uh, that'll like any fire burn itself out over time. Uh, but we're We're in the second third inning of it, not the ninth inning. Speak to the the Bitcoin of it all. Um, you know I think that there's we.

We sort of went into the the FTX Vortex uh for some period of time. then it's come back I Think there's still some concern though. not just Bitcoin but Crypto at large. Yeah, listening is a completely catalyzing different moment.

All of a sudden, this is an unbelievably resilient. Community I mean you've had FTX and Sam Bachmann freed and all the shenanigans he was up to. You have the U.S government with choke point 2.0 Really going after Crypto in a very targeted way. With all of those headwinds, The 50 million Americans that think they have a constitutional right to own an asset of their choice, right? The 200 million people globally care a lot about this ecosystem and prices are a lot higher.

People like to think crypto is more risky on a volatility adjusted, sharp ratio-adjusted basis. It has been a better investment in three months, six months, three years, five years than JP Morgan sorry Jamie Uh, that's facts, that's not my opinion then Google then just about any investment. And so this this thesis that oh, it's so risk he isn't true I'm volatility adjusting. This community is growing in passion, right? It was big, might take out of the financial crisis because people Didn't Trust Banks I spent this whole weekend petrified that lots of our portfolio Investments had trusted Banks and we're going to lose their money.

Uh, and so we were right back to that kind of 08. And I think it's really important that that's galvanized this crypto. Community What? I Don't understand about this. Mike is here.

You have a situation where the people whoa, what was that? and there was the government there to backstop it and we hear over and and and and for some reason that is considered a bad thing and I'm just taking the others out of this for a second. On the other side, we hear headline after headline I Can't tell you how many times we reported in the morning that somebody lost. You know, hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin from their account and they can't get it back. It's inaccessible to them to them, it can't be found.

They lost the password that something happened and there's nobody to call and there's no government to backstop you. Well, that's the point they don't want the government in why the crypto people kind of love crypto. It's a little bit that there's a Independence to it right. Own your keys, own your crypto.

There is a responsibility to it. Uh, there's an instant settlements. Do you laugh at the depositors The Venture Capitalists and all of the the CFOs companies and say you people are ridiculous Then I don't think you think that I think the government did the right thing. Listen, we created it.

That's my point. If you're living in this personal responsibility category I would have imagined you'd be saying to hell with them, these guys should should know that they're that they're putting their money in a risky place called a bank which I don't think they thought was a little spicy Here you see what I'm saying Andrew People People behave by the rules we set for them. The rules we've set in in traditional Finance in America have broadly been deposits or guaranteed right when we guaranteed Wamu's depositors back in 08 or 07. Uh, that behavior got so ingrained and quite frankly I agree with the people that said, what are you gonna want the the guy who runs an auto dealership to be a bank analyst as well and so we have de facto a guaranteed deposits People have bought into crypto, know there's no government backing them up and so a lot of it is behavior.

Like what are the rules that have been set about how we play the game and so I Do think Listen, Crypto isn't without its flaws, right? Like Bitcoin we know is not a security ethereum. We think it's not a security. There are lots of other things that you can debate. Uh The Regulators are still going to come after Crypto? Uh, but I would point out there's a resilience like you know you would have thought.

oh it was all over after FTX People people call the debt of this ecosystem many times. Nice to see you Mike Um, it's always interesting to hear your perspectives on love to love to see you Mike Well I guess before we go on and do our chart review and all that like morning prep work and everything just with respect to that. what are you guys thinking? Very honestly, Do you think that this strengthens the case of Crypto? Um, some would say that maybe Crypto help put us in the current situation that we're in because Crypto blew up I Don't know if I really buy that just because relative to the overall Market the equities market and the bond market, crypto is very small at its biggest size. Cryptos.

Three children and we're talking about a stock market that's 40 trillion. We're talking about a bond market that's a hundred trillion. Um I I just don't I don't see it I I just don't see it. Um, maybe And what I say is I don't see in terms of crypto being the thing that put us on the I don't know the edge, the financial, the economic Edge that we currently are.

if you ask me of why we got to where we are I mean it's the classic story of there's no such thing as a free lunch. No one took a moment, no one took a beat to think what happens when we just give away all this money when we print a bunch of money and give it away. Everyone was enjoying the party and no one stopped to think for a second. Who's gonna pay the bill and now we're all paying the bill I Think it's regulations I think it's the FED I Think it's the government.

It's very, very easy on both sides of the aisle to be the fun guy who's going to give away more money, who's going to charge you less money but event like you can't get away for the the for free you simply can't um I don't even know if I necessarily blame Banker greed because Bankers allow are allowed to do certain things set by Regulators they're still like as of now we were talking about the fractional banking system. Typically you have to have about 10 of your Um clients money at the bank Regulators change it to right now as of whatever March of 2020 they have to have zero. They don't have to keep any of it there. so I don't think it's even greed on their part because they're still doing things that by set by laws and regulations are above board.

and that's my problem is there are when they do things that are outside of the bounds of Law and legislation. Yeah, they get in a lot of trouble, but a lot of what we're seeing right now it's it's above board. They're doing what they're legally allowed to do, so it's more of like, well yeah, we have to take a look at this and be like a little bit more realistic. And I think some people are starting to really fully understand what it means when you have a system that is so hyper dependent on people's Faith within the government especially like in Banks and the market in general.

and I totally understand psychologically how this actually improves the case for something like Bitcoin when you're starting to be like, well, hang on I See all these whatever government supported Banks collapsing anyway I think a lot of average people are like oh okay, well I might as well put it somewhere where the government doesn't really have control and previous generations and even this generation there's a strong argument for things such as gold and silver and we've been trading a little bit of gold I know some of you. every of the comments have been trading silver. Congratulations to all of you on that silver trade. It's good.

uh, making a little bit of money off of gold myself. but I understand now. Uh, the newer generation is looking at something like Bitcoin because they're being told the government's not involved in this one and I know it's a little bit of a libertarian uh speaking point, but to me, it's too big. The government's too big, They have too much power, and one of the many things that go on that make me cry in the shower every morning.

I'm worried that this current banking crisis when all the dust settles will leave the major four Banks JPMorgan Bank of America City and Wells Fargo more powerful I think we are going I think and I hope I'm wrong I Don't want it to go this way, but I guess I'm just naturally a pessimist I Don't want us to be trending in a Direction Where We are closer and closer to a banking oligopoly here in the U.S I Think that's a very, very bad thing. As you get closer to a monopoly, you're gonna have less competition. It ends up screwing over the clients. It ends up screwing over the market I Don't want it to go that way.

But now that you have smaller and mid-sized Regional Banks Until it's not the craziest assumption that the best parts of those the big banks are going to come in, buy them out. Um, it's because our government is naturally extraordinarily lazy. They're just going to sit there and backstop The big guys. Um, in terms of the big Banks and the little Billings are going to flounder.

Some of them will survived, some of them won't. Um, but I I Just don't want it to go that way because it seems like it's going to be really, really bad. I Mean, look at certain industries that that's already happened in the US where there's only a couple major players, look at Market making for the markets Look at Citadel Look at virtue. Uh, the only people who would argue that what the duopoly being a positive.

The only ones that would argue that is Citadel and Virtu. Everyone else is on the outside looking in saying that is absolutely crazy that that's the current system. It truly truly blows my mind. Obviously, it's going to take quite a bit of time to see how this all shakes out.

So I don't know I Hope I'm wrong on it. But it just seems like when there are chaotic events like this, it still always seems like someone's forced to pay the bill which is going to be your average. like lower to Middle like class, taxpayer and then somehow, without ever missing a beat, the people at the top somehow either end up making more money, they somehow insulate their power better. Somehow they become more intertwined with the government.

Those are the common threads that you see whenever you have chaotic events like this, and that clearly seems to be the pattern over the past, like two decades of massive market like shake-ups. It's insane. Absolutely insane. I Don't know how many of you remember this from the end of The Big Short I Want to say big Bang but the big short when all that craziness happened in 2008.

One dude, one mid-level Banker ended up going to jail getting in trouble, and basically he was trying to hide some of the losses. a thing that almost every single Bank on this planet was doing at that moment in time. But this one schmuck got caught. and that's it.

One dude, one dude got in trouble there. And Trillions of dollars. Billions of dollars. I Don't know the exact amount, but it was probably trillions in the market that fell.

That's insane. and that one arguably from greed. But they were able to do something that at that moment in time Regulators allowed them to do. and then the guys that were stepping outside.

some of them got in trouble, some of them still got away with it because no one in the regulatory body like like even had the capability to handle that. um, blows my mind. Do I think that this current situation will lead to what we saw in 2008 in all reality? No. Um.

I think there are different things going on that I Well, I very much don't wanted to go there. so even me being a pessimist, um, like it's easy to call for doomsday and mess-ups and big things like that. but no. I I Just think right now with the FDIC stepping in and basically saying they're going to add an unlimited basis ensure all depositors banks are going to fail.

Uh, something like Sivb Silicon Valley Bank The ticker symbol is Sivb Sdny. These banks are going to fail. Their stocks are going to either go to zero, go to very close. They're not being saved.

The equity holders not being saved, the debt holder is probably not going to be safe. They're not going to be saved. Uh, it's just we're backstopping. and that's why they're not calling it a bailout.

So that's really getting uh specific with the world. But they're backstopping depositors. So depending on who you talk to, who you don't talk to, some people call that a bailout. Some people won't call it a bailout.

But just for the point of being semantically correct here, understand that this time around, the managers of these banks are not being bailed out. In fact, if the FDIC takes them over, management fired. if you look at the equity holders that holders, they're not being bailed out. The people who are being saved in this scenario are just the people who had the money in those accounts.

It has no one like so to me that's a little bit more logical. It is a little bit more logical. so I don't know. I Kind of wanted to share that.

but overall it is very very very apparent that crazy things are going on. right now. the market is getting absolutely clobbered and that actually brings me to an interesting thing. Um I don't know how many of you have heard of Treasury Direct got Dot Gov So you could go to Treasury Direct.gov and you can look at these I bonds.

You could look at bills, you can look at notes, you can look at bonds and what this is is basically you're giving the government some money you give the government money, they give you more money back later and when you do something like that, here's a good example. Um, let's say you're looking at like a one-year I don't know. t-bill here with the US government. Uh, you would give them 95 bucks when you get to the end of your maturity.

Just in this example. Let's say it's a year you would get a hundred back so you would get that five percent gain. You could come here. You could do it.

Um, this website apparently built in the 1990s. Um, uh I like it because it's way better than a savings account. It's better than a high yield savings account. But it's still absurdly absurdly confusing.

And for me I actually kind of feel dumb that like even just for the business, for the content business for everything else going on, why am I letting my money sit when I could be getting at least a better percentage? I'm not arguing that this is a replacement for your savings account. I'm not really arguing It's like an income strategy, but it's a better place for your cash to sit because you could get. Right now, it's around five percent. It's like a little bit ago, it was above five percent.

Right now, it's below five percent. but that's a good yield. now. Is there risk involved? Yeah, But these are government-backed securities Or really, bonds debt? It's it's that you're getting debt with the government.

So I would argue that there's essentially no risk. It's very, very low risk because it's backed by the government. But if the government doesn't pay you. I would argue that we're probably concerned with more things going on in the world than our money.

Uh, I mean if we get to a scenario where the government is not paying on their debt, you're not going to be worrying about your account anyway. I Would very much believe that. But with all that being said, this website built in the 1990s, you come in here and you do stuff like buy a bond. Then it gets confusing.

You make an account and they have other I bonds. You have to pick the right one. You have to find the right auctions. My point is, it's a little bit confusing here.

Eye bonds are good, but they have some rules like you might have to be in there for a full year and there's just some things of like how much money can you put in your I Bonds were maxed out at fifteen thousand you had to sit in for a certain amount of time. good per good percentages, but a lot of rules that people like don't want to deal with. and that's actually why I Want to give a shout out to public I Know many of you know public I've been a partner with them for quite a while. We talked about them because they're non-payment for order flow brokerage.

Well, they now have a new way that you could be a little bit more safe in the mark. Market especially if you're getting pummeled by the market so you can earn a 4.7 percent yield. This is all through treasury bills, so it's going to be all backed by the government. What's cool about this is you're not like there's no minimum investment window.

It's not like you're like, well, if you do it, your money's locked up for a year. Like you could get it out. Um, so it's a little bit. First of all, if you look at just the UI I mean many of us already have Public on our phone.

Um, the UI exponentially better. It's way easier to do it. You just put your money in and they're gonna roll for you. So if you just want your money to sit and sit and sit, you're not going to have to be keep coming on this website and roll it to the right one.

They'll all take care of it for you. You just put your money in. and I am of the opinion that this is a far, far better place to almost like a portion of your savings account. I Understand that sometimes you need your savings account like right away and this is still pretty quick.

but it just this yield, especially when we're seeing the craziness in the market. Um, it's a safer way to do it. Now most the time you're not going to hear about bonds, notes, or bills because typically the Market's doing better. On average, you're getting an eight percent return from the market.

But right now in the current interest rate environment, what's going on? this is probably the solid shot of the year. So I myself am definitely going to put some money in here. I've already been trading a little bit of it and now that I'm like really wrapping my head about what's going on, I think it's an even better opportunity if you want to check this out. If you want to get a government-backed yield on your money, it's better than just sitting in cash.

If you were standing in cash, inflation is eating you alive, You might as well earn some money on it so you can check it out. You could go to Public.com it is pinned to the top of the chat it is in the description of the video. um but there's some risk of my new baby amount of risk but relative to all the other craziness going on. I Am of the opinion that this is probably one of the best options we could do rather than just letting your money lose value with inflation with month over month and year over year.

But right now you could lock it in at 4 point seven percent. Like I said, it is a little bit variable so if you check it out every couple days every couple weeks it'll go up a little bit. It'll go down a little bit so you might want to game the system and try to tranch your money like a little bit. Now a little bit later.

totally totally possible. but look into it pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video or you could just go to Public.com I Know a lot of you watching this already have public on your phone so you're not gonna have to do that. just open up the app and just create the treasury account. But once again this is all in the world of T-bills and well-known thing.

I mean big, way bigger Market than crypto and stocks even put together. but give it a give it a look I Think you guys will be interested in it for sure and with that let's come back to why you might be interested in the fact that Credit Suisse is now crumbling FRC I Did pick up FRC yesterday. Like I said, this is not a quick day trade. probably not even a quick swing trade.

I'm prepared to be an FRC for a couple months trying to dip by this. Bank um I think it's being overstayed of what's going on here. Could this Bank fail. It could totally 100 fail.

But I think right now the risk reward of this situation is a little bit too good to pass up beings that JP Morgan gave them a 70 billion dollar facility. Could this go completely sideways? Yes, It could. This is a little bit of a high-risk High reward trade, but I relative to the upside reward I'm willing to take the risk. The risk is large and it needs to be considered so you're going to want to control your bet size on this if you are following suit.

But this particular play, not for the faint of heart like I said Gold's been popping lately. If you've been missing out, what's going on with gold recently? Gold went from 168. Now we're up to 179. We had a put credit spread on it that's going to be locking in today at very very very nice gain.

So that position most likely closed today. Uh, let's look up silver on the Futures Market I Want to show you what's going on there silver futures? Um, going from 20 up to 22 big pop and silver, You're seeing a classic movement of money to lower risk things. uh, inflationary. Hedges You're seeing the things that are bullish right now.

In the market are things such as gold such as silver. You can look at things such as uh TLT now popping order filled. What was that? What was that? Oh my. The strategy just got out on the S P 500.

uh, took a looks like it took a little bit of a loss right there. Um, that was just the robot I think that was the Kramer robot was trading early this morning. I'll show you guys everything that's going on with the robot. Um, but I do want to go over a couple things then I'm going to turn it over and answer uh, some of your questions.

dude. been watching you since the beginning of the treasury lesson was the most useful, well-taught lesson. Uh, you've ever done. Oh happy to do it.

Happy to do it Don um I Like it I myself have a little bit in I'm about to put more in because I just I Honestly think that bonds are going up. the interest rate environment is a good one. We're doing kind of the opposite of what Svb did. Svb bought a bunch of bonds and then interest rates pop.

You want to buy bonds. Ideally when interest rates are at their Peak maybe about to come down and we are probably going to get another Fed rate hike. Speaking of that, uh, looks like it's 50 50 between no raise and another 25 bips. I think the Market's good for one maybe two more rate hikes.

So in terms of just rates and stuff, this is a solid time to lock some in. So I'm excited about it I very much am. and for me it's one of these things like like I I want to share it with you guys and yes, public is the sponsor of today's video. but I when I spent time looking into this over the past couple weeks, I just realized to myself I'm like what am I doing with my own savings account It's so silly.

So what I'm going to do is take a large portion of my savings account and then put it into this. Really the option that you have because you could take it out like I'm not locked up. Yeah, there's going to be a couple day delay if I need money because like I would sell it has to settle. then I need to transfer it to my account and that's why I'm not doing my full savings account.

But why would I not get a yield sponsored by the US government? It's so silly. The yield that I'm getting from my bank is like point two percent. It's essentially nothing. It's so silly, so just a better place to keep your cash.

Um, especially if you're not so keen on throwing it in the market right now because the Market's on tilt. You can always do something better than sitting in cash because inflation is going to eat you alive. Um, so I'll let you guys know when I like decide to add even more into it, but it you can find it out I Think it is actually pretty cool. but right now yeah, there's going to be another rate hike so rates are going to probably go up a little bit more.

I Mean right now there's a 55 chance that we're getting in 25 bips. but uh, we're gonna know more about this on Wednesday of next week. a week from today Wednesday March 22nd at 2 Pm we get the results and then Jerome Powell will be speaking at 2 30. All right, let's get a little bit prepped up for the day.

Dow Futures fall 600 points as credit Suite slide adds to financial sector woes. Uh, so Credit Suisse which we kind of already looked at the chart right here getting absolutely Merck It's been getting murked and they had other problems, but now the problems in the whole financial sector is basically signing the death warrant on Credit Suisse It's probably a matter of time before this one officially blows up several. European Banking stocks halted from trade after steep losses it folks I don't like Credit Suisse is the main one. there are a couple other and who knows, you never know what's going to happen in the U.S session today things might be like nope, that's too extreme and people might come in and start buying I Don't think that's gonna happen.

It's totally possible. Just because things are read in pre-market doesn't mean it's going to be read throughout the day. The odds are in fact, about 50 50 pre-market trading. The direction of pre-market trading not typically the most indicative of where things are going to be going for the actual trading session here in the US.

But I mean I think the writing's on the wall I Think we are going down and now I'm not here as a doomsday caller saying the Market's gonna like repeat 08 and everyone needs to run and blah blah blah no. I Just think we are still trending down I Think eventually things will calm down I Think the government and regulators and the FDIC and the FED did all they needed to I Think the bank runs will be stopping because they basically just said hey, we're willing to let Banks fail, but we're gonna fully back depositors in that type of a scenario. I Don't see why there would be a bank run because everyone knows that they're fully packed. Any depositor even above 250k, you are fully backed.

So I think that that's going to be enough to stop the bank runs Maybe I'm wrong I don't know I lived through 2008 but I don't really fully remember it. so I'm not going to be the person who could directly draw all the lines of. This is exactly the same. This happened because I was like a dumb kid I was in eighth grade so I remember it.

but I don't fully remember credit Suite share slide 24 after Saudi backer rules out further assistance. So the Saudis who essentially have unlimited money um, even they're saying that no, we're not going to give you any more. Credit Suisse is going down and it's dragging some of the banking sector with it. As of now, the Dow, the S P, and the NASDAQ are all coming down.

Oil is also coming down, which is very much screwing me over. I'm in a precarious situation where I'm simultaneously getting screwed over on Medical Credit spreads, but then Oxy Oxy put credit spreads. Um, so look at me being able to get screwed in a way that most people thought you couldn't get screwed. Speaking of that, let's go over everything.

So this is the newsletter from yesterday. If you're not yet a member of the newsletter, it's free. It's in the description. it just go to Macquares.locals.com It's basically a breakdown of what happened in the Market that day, all the macroeconomic events for the next day, the seasonality of the next day.

Once again, this all came out last night where I'm at in my account yesterday I didn't TR I didn't lock in any gains or losses uh I.E I didn't close any positions I did make some new positions I did a Tesla call Credit spread 207 by 210 so I just need it below 207.50 by April 6th and uh, forty dollars per one and then I have five. so obviously 200 bucks. uh potential Max profit there I guess I only did one trade yesterday. These are all my current positions: I have a medical credit spread, a meta put credit spread I have a gold put credit spread Um, the put credit spread on Meta is money easy, easy money I'm very much worried about this call Credit spread because I need it below 190 and if you look at Meta, it's already above 190 and I only have until this Friday So uh, this is the main play that I'm currently worried about this play I mean there's a 98 chance of me hitting this so I'm not worried about this at all.

Gold's gonna close today to lock in even more profits Gold's been ripping and I have a put credit spread Easy Money Nvidia Uh, 270 by 275 from March 31st, there is a very good chance depending on what goes on. where's Nvidia at right now in pre-market it's actually going oh it down a little bit. Uh, this one won't be locking in today, but it's going to keep drifting. I mean there's an 88 chance that I get the money on this one.

Um, it won't be locking in today, but it's pretty close Oxy I'm now worried about that. It is a put credit spread 58 by 57. Uh, now with the renewed fears and the overall economy and then also uh, the fact that the demand numbers for for petroleum crude oil uh, they've been coming down a little bit. uh, Oxy is getting negatively hit but I do have until the 31st so I'm going to wait this one out a little bit.

Um I have a QQQ call Credit spread I need it below 312 that one's crushing it Tesla call Credit spread 200 by 202 that one's crushing it JPM So this one was looking good. a JPM put credit spread 125 by 120 and now it's looking a little bit Saucy because Credit Suisse is going down so um I do have till April 6 So this might be a future matte headache problem. but for today looking a little bit concerning. uh TL TLT put credit spread uh another money play 101 by 100 I need it above 101 because it is a put credit spread Uh, easy, easy money.

So there's I would say one major headache and then two half headaches. So in total I have two headaches. Right now, the major headache is the meta call Credit spread I need it below 190 and then I have two half headaches. but they're half headaches because it doesn't happen until the end of the March it doesn't happen until April and that's the name of Oxy and JPM so we'll figure out those later, those later, and then the bottom of the newsletter.

I Just give you my thoughts for what my current positions are doing. I Also let you guys know that right here. um my digest. Oh uh.

I Must admit I did make one D-gen play today. I bought six spy puts 390 strike for March 24th I could show you what's going on with those right now I think you guys can see this. Uh, right here. six uh spy puts for March 24th 390 put um I'm in at 663.

yesterday I was a little bit underwater I was down 156 because of the pop into the end of market today or yesterday. but when the Market opens today, this should theoretically in the next 15 minutes. Uh, open up very much in my favor. I actually have a feeling that I'll be up over 750, maybe even a thousand dollars so waiting for the market to open.

but I still have that full position. At one point yesterday, it was up a thousand. The pump into the end of the market screwed me over and I gave back all my unrealized gains. Um, but when the when the Market opens today, I should theoretically be A-Okay and then I Also let everyone know that I bought FRC in my long-term account.

um I Like I said high risk High reward. but I think this dip Buy in this bank I Just don't think this bank's gonna collapse I don't I might be wrong I could clearly be wrong and I don't necessarily think that this is something that people should follow me into because it is high risk. It is high reward. Um, and that's not necessarily everyone's cup of tea.

My average is 48 dollars. It's already trading at 38, so I'm already missing out on 20 which is a huge, huge bummer. But like I said, it's in my long-term account. It's not a day trade.

it's not even really swing trade. I'm going to be in this for probably multiple months, maybe even multiple years to wait for it to recover up to that 120 150-ish level. But once again, this is all in the newsletter I Just want to give you a recap of where I'm at and what my current headaches are. but uh, today, probably locking in.

Not it's not going to be like last Friday when I was able to lock in like 500, but the TLT that is probably going to be a lot. Maybe locking in today? The gold trade may be locking in today I Think we're going to be looking pretty good Matt Put a bounty on factors I Did we could talk about the whole fat cores? Saga A little bit later, Um, but someone's out there posting a lot of doctored body images of me and we're gonna find out who it is. We are. We are.

We are. We are mortgage demand Rises despite vital interest rates, so I Just want to let you know in the world of real estate Um, so not like people aren't completely crazy right now. like I mean we're crazy with fear. Like they're not completely fear ridden.

Mortgage demand did go up a little bit, especially with interest rates going to absolutely Haywire So I wanted to let you know about that Coral Icon: An absolute legend in the world of Wall Street and really even takeovers Carl Icon says our economy is breaking because of inflation and poor corporate leadership. Um I Definitely agree that there's poor corporate leadership going on. I Mean I'm going to be talking about this. but the Silicon Valley Bank CEO That dude needs to get investigated.

He 100 should be investigated. I Mean he sold 3.5 million dollars worth of stock right before his company went belly up and he damn well knew that something was bad because of the amount of deposits. I mean are you there? Was 42 billion was taken out of the bank in a day and the dude sold right beforehand? Come on, that's absolutely disgusting. So I wouldn't just say that's bad leadership I would say that's probably illegal and Hyper immoral.

If you want to just talk about bad leadership, that's something like Adam Aaron continually lying to the ape AMC Public. But let's listen to Carl Icahn just because he's a guy that should definitely be listening to Carl Icahn Finding his latest activist Target in Biotech firm Illumina taking issue with that company's acquisition of Grail which specializes in cancer testing, the deal being contested right now by European Regulators Mr Icon nominating three people to that company's board and gearing up for a fight. he joins us now to discuss that issue and of course the state of the markets, the economy. the FED Carl Welcome back! It's nice to talk to you today.

Yeah, good to talk to you Scott You know we're going to get to the Illumina thing in a minute, but just given where we've been over the past few days I Want to get to the markets first and I I want your take on on what you think has transpired here over the past few days. From a market standpoint, yeah, I don't think it's the last few days necessarily I Think we have some major problems in our economy. Maybe they'll be fixed, but uh, you just look at many, many factors. Uh, we've uh, you know, a bit of a spread these free and you know the rising tide get a tide flips.

All Ships But uh, a lot of people in our economy are not doing well. Obviously you know the net worth of the media and household is is nothing basically and you uh, you just look at what is going on. I think Powell really has to raise interest rates sooner or later. I can't talk about next week or even next month, but you is the worst thing an economy could have.

and I think people underwrite that If you look in history, every hegemony has been destroyed by inflation. well, almost everyone. I mean just go back to Rome That's what happens. and uh, what about major problems? I Think in this economy right now, it says no leadership on the corporate level.

you know, forget politically and I'm not going to get into politics. but I think you? you do feel that in Washington nobody knows what's really going on, but very true in our corporations. and I've lived with that I mean all all, uh, all my life basically. And companies today, really, uh, have with many exceptions, many, many exceptions.

Leadership is is worse than mediocre and that's why we are so successful. I mean not because we're Geniuses but because you go to a company today. That's what we've done over and over and over again and it's really horrible what you find in many of them. We'll get to your we'll get to your latest one as I mentioned in a minute.

but I Just want to drill down on this for a moment. So so you think the FED should keep going. You think the FED should continue to raise interest rates despite what we just witnessed with you know, the bank failures. Yes, the way they go together I mean you you, it's a bag failure is a manifestation of the leadership of that companies and and the way they spend money.

and uh, you really have a model housing if you just keep bailing them out. I mean in this case I'm not gonna very much applying on on trying to save some poor people although the the deposit is in Silicon Valley weren't exactly poor people but that not the issue. The issue is you have to stop inflation. so you say did we keep going on I Don't think you have a choice if if you if you don't keep going on I Really believe that the problem of inflation can become such that this very it's very difficult to get to get out of it.

Hey maybe there's something we can you know that happens? maybe it's a miracle, but you you do have inflation. I mean look if you stop you know they don't raise race next week the next month I I Don't know but I really really this is a choice. God I Think you can't have a problem for this country. it's gone out of the binge.

Did you spread the family wealth and you just keep spreading. at the end you pay the price for it. I Mean it's done I Want your reaction to What Citadel's Ken Griffin Told the Ft about this very issue in which he suggested that the government should not have bailed out all of the depositors. Um, before he answers, do you think that he, they should have bailed out all depositors.

Do you think that was the proper economic and moral decision? I'm not talking about the equity holders I'm not talking about management I'm not talking about the debt holders I'm just talking about the depositors at the bank. Do you think that was the proper economic and moral decision? He said quote the U.S is supposed to be a capitalist economy and that's breaking down before our eyes. There's been a loss of financial discipline with the government bailing out depositors in full. What do you make of that statement? He also goes after the regulator.

They didn't read this here, but I actually agree with Ken Griffin The regulator was the definition of being asleep at the wheel. I'll probably know what Griffith is saying there because I don't quite understand where it goes. but I am saying that he's right, that our system is breaking down and that we absolutely have a major problem in our economy today and I know whether or not you bail out of back or something like that. but you can't have the country feelings that it doesn't matter if they save, it doesn't matter because they could spend all the money they want.

You could do whatever you want because the government will bail you out. You can't He's right about that. You can't have that. I Mean it definitely is a moral hazard, but on the other side of it just to play Devil's Advocate Because I See, some of you are against the fact that we bailed out the depositors.

Why should the depositors be in trouble? What did the depositors do wrong? The bank was poorly run. they had some there and Regulators were asleep at the wheel. It's not if you go in and get a surgery from a doctor and the doctor messes up. Is it your fault? No, the doctor messes up.

So in this situation, my point is is, we cannot get into a system where we expect people who are using a bank to understand their balance sheet and know if they have like are buying more Bonds in a rising interest rate environment and they didn't properly hedge it with swaps. That's not fair for someone to assume and I don't know why the depositor like if you are blaming depositors like In your mind, if it's the depositor's fault I just inherently disagree with you I think it's the bank management fault and I think it's regulator's fault. The fact that they have a banking Charter means at some point someone looked at him and said yes, you're doing the right thing and in reality we know they're not doing the right thing. I'm not a fan of bailing out these stockholders I'm not a fan of bailing out the debt holders I'm not a fan of bailing out the management.

Those three people were not bailed out, Management fired. The stock is not going to be saved. The debt is not going to be saved. but the depositors I Don't know why we should screw over depositors, especially where a fair amount of depositors were companies that were just using it for their payroll.

So now an employee getting paid like we're blaming them because their manager decided to keep their money at a bank that has a banking Charter in the U.S Like at a certain point I I think we're pointing fingers at the wrong person and I don't know why the average person at any level. whether you're below 250 000 or above 250 000 like how is it on them how like I I just don't understand that we you we can't go around and just be like you need to examine the balance sheet of every single bank before you put your money in the bank. We are assuming that Regulators have done the vetting for you to be a bank in the U.S That's my whole point there. Um, and does it create a moral hazard? Yes.

I'm not sitting here thinking that this is a perfect way for this to go forward, because all of a sudden, if we get into this concept of oh no matter when anything happens, the government's going to bail it out. That's a huge moral hazard. So I'm not oblivious to that either. Um, more of I Wish we never got here.

and then I believe the reason we got here is because of the government and the FED printing almost nine trillion at Funny Money. That's what happens when you keep interest rates at zero, you have quantitative easing almost nine trillion the economy. You're stimulating it by just funny money. So I blame the government I blame monetary policy and I blame Regulators But now all of a sudden when all their decisions screw over the average person, we're looking at the average person be like, well, you're not insured.

Past that, it's like, what do you mean The only reason we got here was because of the government, because of regulators like it's their fault and that's why I think we need to keep the blame on the people who cause it I'm looking at the government I'm looking at the fed I'm looking at monetary policy and then specific to the bank. Yeah, let's hold management accountable. The management is like I mean we already have a video on it and we'll be getting into it today. but the management is really, really messed up.

They like I mean they sold millions and millions of dollars of stock right before this all got screwed up. But once again, if we're looking at the management of the bank, if we're looking at Regulators If we're looking at monetary policy, if we're looking at the administration still I don't see a good reason of why the depositors are at fault. There's a huge huge difference between being a depositor and being any of those other ones. um I live in the rural Midwest and I'm not confident the government would bail me out like they did Silicon Valley That's fair.

I Mean there have been definitely some strong political ties to this bank. I Mean there's a lot of like quote unquote like Woke Investing ESG and that type of stuff. but I don't want it to be political like you might be right there. And my hope is is that our Administration is not so messed up that if this happened in a different geographic location, that they would also protect the depositors there.

When I'm saying these rules: I Think like my own political biases aside, I Think it should be applied to any form of these: Banks Like if you're gonna do it for one, you have to do it for all of them. So whether you're talking about an extremely left-leaning Bank out in San Francisco I Hope that they would do the same thing to whatever an extremely right-leaning Bank in whatever you said, you're from the rural Midwest Or let's just say, like the strongest Republican stronghold in Texas I Hope that they would do it. Um, because I'm trying to take my own political bias out of it like I they should treat them the same. Um would they do that? I don't know I don't know like I I hope we don't have to get to a decision where we're waiting to see if that happens I hope it's just something that we can as Carl Icahn said opine on Pond or think about pontificate on but I don't know I don't I don't want to get there with it.

but we'll see. We'll see, We'll see, we'll see. Bitcoin is already up 50 this year beating stocks and gold. Yeah, because people are maybe seeing if Bitcoin will be a store of value.

So a little bit later I do want to talk about Silicon Valley Bank because I think management has a lot to answer for um I'm no lawyer I don't speak legalese but it really seems like they did some sus things so we're going to be getting into that and we're also going to be getting into how Robin Hood is in a new way screwing over people. um, they just can't get away from it. Robin Hood Robin Hood This company is t