Foreign. Don't leave me alone. Foreign Foreign. is the banking sector going to crash now? I'm not coming at you in this particular video saying I'm some sort of banking expert who's run big one, small ones, medium ones for years and years and years because it's just not true I'm 28.

I've never run a bank I should run a bank but I've never run a bank. So I just want to get that all the way. like because I want to share everything that I found about this Silicon Valley Bank Situation I Want to find I Want to show you everything I found. but please understand that this is more from like 72, maybe four days worth of like hardcore research not from many, many decades within the industry.

So if you guys have any uh, questions, comments, concerns, your own input, this is more of a multi-way conversation. I Want to make that clear: this isn't really me preaching at you of like this is everything you need to know about Banks All I know is that we're going to be sitting in here A Bunch of chaos together. So for those of you who don't know, we're going to get into more detail of this: this: this is the tldr situation. Ticker symbol S I V B Silicon Valley Bank They're going under.

They went under and now they might be dragging a bunch of the other banking I guess participants with them the reason they went under and this is where it kind of gets a little bit more different. This isn't really like 2008. This isn't like Bear Stearns This isn't like Lehman Brothers They didn't take some crazy undue risk with these like the crazy like mortgage-backed Securities that were like if you saw the big short like just they weren't they were risky bets. That's not this situation.

this situation. they had mortgage-backed Securities which were normal ones and they also had a bunch of government bonds and in this situation they had a lot of money. I mean it grew very very rapidly. For those of you who don't know, Silicon Valley was primarily used by like fancy Tech folks out in San Francisco Basically they would get their newest round of funding from VCS and then they would say hey, if you put your money here with us, uh, we'll give you access to maybe loans that you couldn't get from JP Morgan Wells Fargo Bank of America that was like the Allure of this particular bank, but anyway, very large Bank 16th biggest bank and uh, it just catered towards like Tech Pros essentially.

Anywho, um, a lot of their money I think it was in the tune of like 80 billion was thrown into bonds mortgage-backed Securities and once in a while you have people coming to your bank and you're like hey, we need our money back. So and they're okay. they're looking at their liquidity situation. they're like okay I guess we have to go get money so they're going to sell some of the bonds.

The issues: When they bought bonds, they did it right before the Federal Reserve started jacking up interest rates. When the Federal Reserve jacks up interest rates. This inherently jacks up yields as yields go up, bond prices go down. They were buying all these bonds before bond prices fell off.

So all of a sudden when someone comes knocking. when one of their clients comes knocking and they say, hey, we need some of our money, they look around. They're like, okay, we don't have enough money on hand because we live in a fractional banking system. Roughly, they keep about 10 percent of the money they need, the rest of it they're using it, loading it to other Banks like somehow just trying to make their money work for them.

That's a classic banking thing and we could talk about like should we even have fractional banking or should the percentage be higher? That's a question for later on today. But anyway, if enough people or if a big enough player or some combination of them come knocking and they're like, hey, we need some money they were forced to sell, They wanted to give themselves a little bit of breathing room. and then this is really kind of like the start of what happened Like this: that was the camel that broke or the straw that broke the camel's back and they probably didn't even know it was coming And it's led to all this craziness. So anyway, this I just want to make it very, very clear, like absurdly clear here what happened.

The bank wasn't taking crazy risk. Of course, they were taking some risk, even if you get bonds or taking some risk. But I don't think that it's appropriate. Well, it's just like factually inaccurate to think that the same things that were happening in 2008 where they were taking those crazy crazy bets on like what was it um I forget the term, the Cdos or whatever it was where they were like putting all these different, like just screwed up mortgages together and together.

It wasn't like that at all. A lot of this money was simply in U.S sponsored treasuries. The issue is was more so the timing and then when the economy gets a little rough because the FED is jacking up interest rates. it was a one-two combo punch in this reality.

So the first punch was that they got into bonds right before the FED started jacking up rates. so as fed jacks up rates yields go up so you'll go up on prices come down. So on paper they had a loss there. but they were just kind of waiting for the maturity and they probably would have been fine.

But also the second punch here was because the FED fund rate went up. Obviously we're fighting inflation, you're pushing down on the economy. You want things to cool off well when you're a high growth, new, fancy schmancy startup, not all of them are going to survive the new increased pressure. Well, some of those guys might come back and say we need our money.

So all of a sudden that's the second punch They come to the bank. They say we need our money. The bank's like, all right, we have to go get your money. So they sell bonds, they take a pretty sizable realized loss and then all of a sudden word gets out.

Things start to spread. They start talking about like do we have to raise more capital and then everyone's like starting to look around like well, is my money safe? Is your money safe And it's much more psychology than anything else. Yeah, there's a mathematical economic situation that gets it started, but then after that it is just fear. Everyone looks around and it's like they're like well I don't even want to take the risk I want my money before the next guy because like I need to get my money out before anything else happens as of now for posterity's sake.

Just so you guys know, we were filming this Monday morning before the Market opens and what you guys need to know at this point in time, if you were a shareholder in Sivb Silicon Valley Bank S, we'll just call it Svb. If you are shareholder, the government's not backstopping that. That's the risk of getting into a company going long, going short. You're taking on that risk and it's kind of up to you to do that to type of due diligence.

but over the weekend, depositors within the bank are fully going to be protected by essentially the government. Uh, usually FDI Insurance goes up to 250 000. The current situation right now is it goes up to infinity and we could argue about like is that a bailout? Is that technically not a bailout? Are we just kind of like splitting hairs? like are we just getting lost in the detail of what it is and I Thought a lot about this, like researched it all week and thought all about it. And in reality the depositors did nothing wrong here.

I'm not talking about people that own equity in the bank. Not at all. We're not talking about people who own stock. I'm talking about the person who just like was putting money in the bank.

and in reality, to get a banking. Charter Here in the US you're kind of assuming that the due diligence of really the Fed and other regulatory bodies are like if they give them the clear, it should be a safe Bank to just put your money into. We're not talking about a bank that was making crazy bets or anything and even if they were, once again, there's a big difference between being a depositor and being a shareholder. So I think it's actually a good thing that they help the depositors here because once again, this all kind of comes back to the psychology of it of if they didn't, are there going to be more runs on other Banks and even right now in real time if you guys haven't seen the chart yet FRC First Republic Bank that stocks down like 65 this morning Regional Banks are under a severe amount of pressure.

so I'm assuming I'm assuming I'm assuming that there's a lot of people in here who are more of the mindset of okay, no like this is capitalism. If you don't run a good business, you're going to go under and if you're involved with it, hey, that's the risk you take on I Understand that mindset, but understand on the flip side of it and I like I think there's an interesting middle Lane here where like I don't want to be too extreme one way or the other. but the Middle Lane and this might take a little bit because I just want to show you some charts, some data. but if they did nothing, the situation could get worse.

almost for everyone. So it's like do we I don't know help one particular wound before it bleeds into all these other ones because all of a sudden the government's like, you know what? we're going, pure capitalism. We are not helping at all, even if they didn't care about these systemically important Banks Like if they just started to let everything crater, even if you had nothing to do with Svi FS VB In the scenario where they do nothing and like we are not stepping in, well eventually it would be a horrific contagion and then a bank that you might have never heard of had nothing to do with, well it might end up being the downfall of your bank, which might be a legitimately good bank that made no bad bets whatsoever. So it's more of can we can we get in the way and stop this and ideally not like charge the taxpayers anything before this continues to uh domino effect or Snowball Effect into a situation that's just like a horrific Financial economic Frankenstein and ends up bringing us down.

So I know this is all high level. it's just maybe for the people in here who may be just like hang on I Heard a couple of headlines like what's going on I just want to get some some detail out I want to get the Tldr version out of what happened with side uh excuse me Svb Financial Group Silicon Valley Bank who they were, what they did and what they didn't do. there are some such things like I don't want to come across like these people are like perfect and have like absolutely no issues. There were some sus things like for example I believe I was the one of the first people on Friday morning to point out that the CEO and the CFO sold stock in late February perfectly timed.

Even recently, Svb was still paying out bonuses like what like recently I believe in the month of March paying out bonuses to it's like management level people. it's like, all right, like maybe those bonuses and the stock sold You Could argue that it's a drop in the bucket like we're talking about a couple million dollars and we're talking about like a 200 billion dollar Bank Like I get that. but I This a lot of this situation is psychology-based A lot of this situation is just the perception of doing right, doing wrong, of being protected, of not being protected. And in my mind that is like a horrible psychological setup when your CEO and CFO sold some of their stock.

I believe 3.5 billion dollars worth in late February When you're paying out bonuses to a bank that is now like going under a lot of that. and I get it. Financially, it's a drop in the bucket. Like I'm not blind to that fact, but I'm just saying when so much of this is running.

I'm just like psychology and perception. That is some of the worst psychology and some of the worst perception. So what's going on right now is it's almost 8. 45 Uh, Nine, Nine, Fifteen A.m today.

Uh President Biden will be addressing the nation right before the Market opens. Historically, he's not the best at rhetoric. He, he's not the best at comforting people. Uh, he's not the best at comforting markets.

So I don't have the the most faith in this causing the market to pop up right now. If you guys haven't seen, the S P 500 is currently falling. Uh, we are now down to 382 and not long ago we were at 3 92. Um, this is this is gearing up to be quite the day.

This is definitely gearing up to be quite the day. So we're going to be talking about the overall market now. the big. The big thing is, not long ago there was a very, very good chance of a 50 Bips rate hike on Wednesday March 22nd.

We talked about this last, uh, a lot. Last week of the next Fed rate hike, we're still fighting inflation. Inflation's still too high. We got the unemployment rate uh, report on Monday so we could talk a little bit about that mixed bag.

Unfortunately I wasn't here to like go over live with all of you. But at that point in time going into the unemployment rate, there was a a very, very high likelihood very high likelihood we were getting a 50 Bips rate hike. This shows you how quickly things change in the world of the markets. Now there's a very good chance we're getting no rate hike whatsoever that all take I Think it took 48 hours for the likelihood to go from favoring the 50 Bips right? Like to actually no rate hike and now even some people are.

Maybe we should do a rate cut now if we do a rate cut I Would actually argue that that's a really silly move because inflation's still serious. like you don't necessarily want to overdo it in fixing a short-term problem if it's going to make a medium slash longer term problem even worse. And if we were to do a rate cut right now, that would be very, very bad in terms of our battle against inflation. But it seemed well, if you look at the Bond market, if you look at the yield, Market I Should better say right now, there's there's a chance that when we get I Guess fast forward two weeks, two-ish weeks that we're going to get no rate hike What my algorithm is apparently popping off right now I'm getting a lot of the order filled.

So anyway I just wanted to set the ground for everyone. This is getting a little crazy I Want to show you what's going on in the market right here. Here's a spy coming down: I mean uh, it was at 392 on Friday and that's after things were selling off a bit. We have now gone from 392 to sub 382.

this is Svb. This is the bank that kind of started the entire downfall this is going down. S B NY this is Signature Bank Very similar to Silver Gate SI the one that we talked about with Marco Hodis and they are shutting down. So anyway, they actually just got completely shut down by regulators and then the one that's going on tilt this morning is FRC First Republic Bank So we are seeing an extreme amount of stress, an extreme amount of stress, and the banking sector particularly.

Regional Banks Yes, of course if you look at the big ones Wells Fargo JPMorgan Bank of America and city, they're getting hit. but they are just in A they're if you look at fundamentally what they are as a business or in a completely different situation. So will this be a drag on them? Yes, But do I see one of the big four going under? Well inherently our government's not going to let that happen because we have this thing referred to as the Sib systematically important Banks I Believe the designation is if you're over 250 billion with a B 250 billion dollars that if you have that designation, if you start to go down, the Fed's going to step in and do whatever they need to to save you. So the bigger Banks The quote unquote bigger Banks Basically Banks over 250 billion they're not going to let those good guys go down.

They were app. They will absolutely step in. Um, Svb was just below that. They were around I believe 210 billion.

They were right below that designation. That basically allows you to like kind of do what you want. So it's going to be a crazy day. It's going to be a crazy day.

It's going to be a crazy week because this is an insane development that really started at the end of last week heading into the unemployment report and then all of a sudden this situation is getting even worse. Over the weekend we have Yellen that Gremlin saying things uh we have Biden speaking this morning. Tomorrow we have the CPI report I believe we have the PPI report I think the day after uh and then we're coming into an Fomc meeting like this is just crazy. like out of nowhere.

things like we're getting a little bit spicy. It was picking up for sure, but now it just seems to go like it's going absolutely chaotic like in the time that I've been speaking with you we've seen the S P 500 basically drop a dollar fifty. It's just going down and down and down. So here's the plan for today.

Here's the plan: I Wanted to start a little bit early. thank you for getting up early with me. uh I It just because of the craziness I wanted to set the foundation for today Biden will be speaking at nine. Probably means he'll get going at 9 15 the market open.

We're gonna watch the market open and then I have a lot of news to go through. We're going to get into a little bit more detail about the whole Svb situation and I would love to hear your thoughts. uh I mean I Want to get a lot of your thoughts like it's just so crazy like this. The volatility is going to be like we're gonna not only turn it up to 10, we're going to break the knob and get it up to like 11 or 12 today.

It's gonna be absolutely wild now just because. All right, we have about 10 minutes to go. If you folks haven't done it already, hit the Like button. Don't Forget To subscribe.

Obviously that type of Engagement helps out very much with the algorithm on YouTube and most importantly, it helps out with the battle leaderboard over there on Rumble. So if you're watching right now, if you enjoy this type of content, if you enjoyed this type of research, if you enjoy watching chaos and Sue together as a fun goonie, Community this is the place for you to be. Hit the Like button. Don't forget to subscribe.

And before we get into it, just in case, I like really forget. um which? I Like, who knows what's going on today. If you want a free five dollars all the way up to potentially five thousand, get onto Street B Street You can download it uh Android uh iPhone Whatever you need put in the code Matt M-a-t-t when you sign up to get that money. This is a non-payment for order flow brokerage, but on top of it, they also have the option to invest into their trading strategies.

They have an earnings call one a bond one. Um, what's Congress Investing in top government contracts are coming out with an inverse CNBC They're coming out with an inverse cream camera. You put money into it. It does all the buying.

It does all the selling. I've showed you my account I'm actually going to be putting more money into it and I still have a little more money that I want to invest um recently. I Mean with now the new craziness I'm going to be very much paying attention to the bond one. But anyway, check it out.

It is free to sign up. and in fact, just as an enticing thing, they want more and more people. They will give you money after you create your account and do your initial deposit. Just use that code Matt M-a-t-t to get that initial bonus when you're going.

But anyway, just download straight beat, put in the code Matt get your free money and then we could be doing all the algorithmic training together. Speaking of algorithmic trading: I Want to see what is going on in my strategy I Don't know if you guys can see this. Whoa. Check this out.

Um, my robot has been going nuts overnight. so this is my own robot. I'm just trading it on the micro in the NASDAQ Looks like it went long at like almost 11 last night. Then it got out for just under Breakeven Went short, had one nice gain.

So if you see the red dotted line right here, that's a loss. and then if you see this like blue teal dotted line, that's actually a gain. So this went long, took a loss, went short, made a profit, and then actually as soon as I started streaming to all you folks this morning, it went short again. and just like that, profit in.

So what this is telling me is I don't think you could see it? Yeah, my head's blocking it over here, but thus far on the day up 300 here and then in terms of my other position. So obviously I have no live position right now on Futures because you're going to hear it when it goes order filled. Uh, if it ends up trading again. But just to give you a recap of where we're at Friday of last week.

Uh, there was some nice nice wins. Uh, this is the newsletter. This is the official goonie newsletter. It is Free Matt Cores.locals.com It's free.

It's free. It's free. It's free. What? I do in here as you're about to see I gave you a breakdown of the day I Let you know the market events coming up for the next trading day.

I let you know the seasonality of the next trading day. Um, and then I post all my positions in the like options trading that I've been doing so on Friday March 10th ended up making 560 dollars. not bad for an account that started out at 11k thus far start on the year and really, we got underway with this in mid-February so in one month made 1.5 K just selling premium, not taking high risk. not really the highest reward, but just high high accuracy.

reasonable risk. pretty solid reward. and then these were all the positions that were closed like and then I I made some new positions I made it on gold. the gold one's going to crush it today.

Uh, Tesla I made a new one there, sold the 200 and bought the 202 and then I have all the current positions and then I just do a wrap up of what I'm going to be looking for for either the next day the next week. But overall, uh, Friday was officially the best day thus far of doing all this in terms of just money locked in. All these calls were called out beforehand or all these plays were called out beforehand I give you the exact details of what I got in at what I'm looking for. it's all the details 100 everything I'm doing uh, no kind of like gut feeling stuff I'm basically just basing it off of like the math within the options Market looking for high volatility situations to sell premium against and then just slowly but surely it's getting there.

so if that's something that interests you, it's a free newsletter. It's somewhere in the description or you could just go to Macquares.locals.com But the thing I Want to tell you today is originally there was nothing scheduled for today, but now obviously we will be listening to Biden Some people people are saying 9am but I believe he's actually starting at 9 15. they're cutting it really close to the Market opening. I guess he just needed to get a little bit more sleep in today.

But anyway, 9 15 am ET President Biden delivers remarks on the economy President Biden delivers remarks on maintaining a resilient banking system in protecting our historic economic recovery. Um, before we get into it, how do you think this is going to go? I'm worried. I I Really am that when your Market's looking like this in the morning and you have the President speaking right before the Market opens, a president who's not necessarily known to be the best or Raider this could be wild. Like it really really could be wild.

So I guess before we get into like much detail, how do you guys think it's going to go today? If you had all right, the Spy is currently trading at 380 138. Do you guys? Where do you think this spy is going to end up today? Where do you think these banks are going to end up today? Are you looking for things to get stabilized? Are you looking for a little saw off a massive sell-off? Are you looking for things to balance? Are you the like person in here that's like no I actually love these discounts I'm going to be buying all of them like where's everyone's mindset at? Well, he was right about the historic economic recovery. So pizza's calling for spy to zero. Uh crazy green.

Lots of selling. We'll close it to bounce day 35 minutes. This is gonna get. This is gonna be something as a long time investor I Love these situations I Think it's a little early, but I think we will be eventually presented with an opportunity to get a great dip.

Buy on the larger Banks I Should probably get rid of these, but once again I think this is going to be a great opportunity for a dip Buy on the larger banks in terms of larger Banks I'm basically referring to the major four you can look at JP Morgan you can look at Bank of America you could look at Citigroup you can look at Wells Fargo those are typically thought to be the major for I'm kind of eyeing up JP Morgan I Just think that smaller Regional banks are definitely going to get like screwed like they're I mean they are like look at what's going on I mean I have some up over here. just svb down another 60 percent screwed over FRC Now it dropped 15 on Friday down to another 63. it went from 82 to 30 dollars. eighty two dollars down to thirty dollars.

So the regional banking sector of these like kind of smaller to medium. Banks They're just getting absolutely murked and what's crazy is by Wednesday the companies that had their money with Svb have to announce it. Most will be announcing it after the market closes today. So for example, we know Etsy has a lot of their money with uh, Svb.

We know Roku about 25 of their money with Svb and that's just the start of it. Like the list is going to go on. the list is going to get bigger and bigger and bigger. but a lot of these tech companies have their money with Svb so to see how this all goes, it's gonna be absolutely insane.

I mean Svb? how far data drop I think like 200. Yeah it went from 320 down to 100. Look at you and now we're going. We're trading what around 30 or something like that.

Not long ago we could talk about February early February Imagine going from 350 in early Feb In a month and a half later, you're now Trading at 39. that is just what it absolute. Fall From Grace Like this thing is just getting murked. WTF You're live Yes.

I Am Kudri did you guys not get the notifications today? Uscc halted on Robinhood Usdc. So that stuff well which one was the one that lost its Peg and just regained it. Um, so that was involved with Circle and Circle had their money with Svb. Um, we're not done with this.

This is gonna. this is gonna get really really crazy. Nope, no no one did did. Why are people not getting notifications? Nah no notification I got mine and was on time boss.

Thank you Owner who I don't understand uh I was not notified today of the stream. People who does a lot of selling of lamps I just don't understand why I mean my background's encoding and I don't understand why we're in a situation where all you have to do is if someone subscribed you send them a notification and Rumble has been able to figure it out. I would assume it's a couple lines of code. easy Peasy, Lemon Squeezy and then on the other side you have YouTube which is Under the Umbrella of Google One of the most well-known prolific tech companies in the world.

Can't figure out how to send notifications? uh, very quickly here and I'll try to send this if you're in. YouTube chat right now. Can you just comment if you did or didn't get a notification? just say I did get a notification I didn't get a notification I'll screenshot it right now and I'll send that to them uh I just don't I I don't understand like there's people who are subscribers with their notifications. On not getting notifications, there are people who are subscribers who don't even ever know if I have like a video out.

I I Just don't get it All right. All right. All right, let me just screenshot this. Let me screenshot this real quick.

All right. cool. Thank you thank you thank you. Yeah and it's going to some.

So like the problem seems so strange where some people get it, other people don't. Uh, very confusing. I'm the I have the speech ready I have the volume up as soon as he starts. it's over here.

We're gonna get going. But folks, if you're joining in right now, there is chaos in the banking sector. absolute chaos and the being acceptor. uh, we had Yellen speaking over the weekend we have the FED stepping in.

Um, the chances Now just so you know, on Thursday Wednesday of last week, uh, we are currently at 4.5 in terms of the FED fund right? there was a chance that we were going up to five. There was actually a high likelihood we're talking about 70 chance, 80 chance we were going to go up to five of 50 bips, right? Hike? You can see now there's a 50 50 shot that we're not even doing a rate hike anymore. That's how crazy things have gotten in a couple days. This is how quickly things change in the market.

and this is exactly why. Especially if you're doing some YOLO puts and that type of stuff that you got to stay on top of of it because this is just so incredibly crazy. 50 50 shot Pretty. I Actually, don't think we're gonna get a rate hike.

Imagine what happens tomorrow if the CPI comes in higher than expected. Imagine what's going to happen in the market with all this new pressure in the banking sector. Adding in a high re inflation report that comes out at 8 30 a.m tomorrow. Just so everyone knows, of course we will be streaming it if we're in a scenario where inflation in this particular report is higher than expected with the continued stress in the banking sector.

I mean the I Don't think they're going to do a rate cut, but I think it's pretty much going to solidify the fact that for at least one cycle here, they're just gonna have to keep things calm and cool. Uh, because they I mean the Fed's job is price stability. They don't want this type of uh Insanity to be going in the market. Not at all.

Um, so it's going to get nuts. Biden Speaking Yeah He doesn't start till 9 15. I Know a lot of people are saying 9 A.M But here's the White House 9 15. Oh no, he is here all right.

Biden Speaking before I Uh, leave for California I Want to briefly speak about what's happening in Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank today thanks to the quick action in my Administration over the past few days, Americans can have confidence that the banking system is safe. Your deposits will be there when you need them. Small businesses across the country that deposit accounts that these Banks can breathe easier and knowing they'll be able to pay their workers and pay their bills and their hard-working employees can breathe easier as well. Last week when we learned the problems of the banks and the impact they could have on jobs of small businesses and banking systems.

overall, I instructed my team to act quickly to protect these interests. They've done that, they've done that on. Friday The government regulator in charge the FDIC took control of Silicon Valley Bank's assets and over the weekend it took control of Signature Banks assets. Treasury Secretary Yellen and a team of banking Regulators have taken action, immediate action and here are the highlights.

First, all customers who had deposits in these Banks can rest assured, rest assured they'll be protected and they'll have access to their money. As of today, that includes small businesses across the country that bank there and need to make payroll, pay their bills, and stay open for business. This is an important point: No losses will be borne by the taxpayers. That's important.

No losses will be borne by the taxpayers. Instead, the money will come from the fees that Banks pay into the deposit. Insurance Fund Because of the actions of that, because of the actions that our regular has already taken, Every American should feel confident that their deposits will be there if and when they need them. Second, the management of these banks will be fired if the bank is taken over by FDIC The people running the bank should not work there anymore.

Whoa Fired. Investors in the banks will Not be protected. They knowingly took a risk and when the risk didn't pay off, investors lose their money. That's how capitalism works.

And fourth, there are important questions of how these Banks got into the circumstance in the first place. We must get the full accounting of what happened and why those responsible can be held accountable and my Administration no one in mind. No one is above the law. And finally, we must reduce the risk of this happening again.

During the Obama Biden Administration, we put in place tough requirements on banks like Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank including the Dodd-Frank law to make sure that the crisis we saw in 2008 would not happen again. Unfortunately, the last Administration rolled back some of these requirements. I'm going to ask Congress on the banking Regulators to strengthen the rules for banks to make it less likely this kind of bag failure would happen again and to protect American jobs and small businesses. Look, the bottom line is this: Americans Can rest assured that our banking system is safe.

Your deposits are safe. Let me also assure you we will not stop at this. We'll do whatever is needed. On top of all that, let's also take a look at a moment to put the situation in a broader context.

We've made strong economic progress in the past two years. We've created more than 12 million new jobs. more jobs in two years than any President has ever created in a single four-year term. Unemployment is below four percent for 14 straight months.

Take-home pay for workers is going up, especially for lower and middle income workers, and we've seen record numbers of people apply to start new businesses. More than 10 million of them More than 10 million applications over the last two years starting businesses. Now we need to keep the program this progress going. That's what Swift Action that my Administration over the past few years is all about: protecting depositors, protecting the banking system, protecting the economic gains we've made together for the American people.

Thank you God Bless you and may God protect our troops. See in California Mr President What do you know right now about why this happened? And can you assure Americans that there won't be a ripple effect? Do you expect other Banks to fail? Mr Price Honestly, better than I thought it would be? It really was. Uh, he was competently speaking like they must have given him a good cocktail of steroids this morning because he spoke confidently and he didn't like really fumble. but the walkout was a little weird.

that was I mean did you see the exit? Let me just give you a replay. like physically, is he all right? like watch the walk. things we made together for the American people watch his walk out right here God Bless you and may God protect our children speaking well I'll give it to him I mean I know right now about why this is like and can you assure Americans that there won't be a ripple effect really really generally getting out of there. uh, a heavy door.

Yeah, maybe it's just like a heavy door. Um, he didn't say anything bad. honestly. I I think that speech went way better than I thought it would.

Um, so just to reiterate what's going on. oh look at that. did you see how much this shot up now? Wow. All right.

Well depending on how today goes and really, the CPI report which comes out tomorrow morning, um, this was about 50 50 and now there's an 80 chance of a 25 bips right after that, how is the market reacting bouncing a little bit? Uh, Sbny that I mean that one's going to be done? Uh I Believe the tech sector is actually doing somewhat decent. like the tech sector is not following as much uh, as the small cap sector as much as the overall market. So uh Tech keeping things up as of this morning, it's gonna be a crazy day. Uh, and then we have Crypto actually bouncing back.

So we have Bitcoin that went from 19.5 000 up to 22.5 We have East that went from 1350 up to 1600. So crypto's liking it. and I Guess my question to all of you on this particular development. This particular situation with seeing a bank blow up a U.S Bank a large U.S Bank We're talking about the 16th biggest bank in the U.S Does that make you like crypto? more or less like the craziness in the world of bonds yields US dollar Banks Like yeah, a lot of people we've been seeing craziness in the crypto sector, but this is kind of a sobering realization that it doesn't have to even be crypto necessarily for something to go under.

Yeah, like we saw various things. blah um, was a block by Voyager Um, you're gonna. There's a list. like if, like I mean honestly, unfortunately, it's a laundry list of crypto things that blew up.

Um, but this is proof right here that like even just Banks just Banks can blow up I Went all in on Crypto last week Chris of Kodiak Um, depending on your timing, you could have had a really, really good entry. Uh, looking at what's been playing out over the past couple days, at least starting moving my money out into stable coins now. I'm getting a little nervous about stable coins myself just because we're realizing that it's a, without a doubt a little bit of a misnomer. Most stable coins don't really seem that stable by any means.

Um, we just had one of the largest ones get deepegged and granted, it did regain its Peg over the past couple days. But even there a lot of question of what's Happening have I seen the one, uh, the U.S Bond chart. Yeah, so as we're seeing, we're seeing bonds kind of actually go up because yields have been vomiting. So for those of you who maybe are a little bit newer to uh, us, I believe it's o2y Yeah, yields have been vomiting.

And when yields vomit like this, it means the bond prices are going up. So bonds and yields bonds and their yields move inversely. So when you see yields, absolutely vomiting like this, that means people are buying the bonds. There's more demand from the bond.

So another way you could look at this: I mean look at over the past two and a half trading days Now the I'm on the two year, I'm not on the one year. But look at this. the yields dropped from 5.1 percent down to 4.2 percent in two and a half trading days. not even and a half, just two.

and like, barely a little bit. So yeah, yields have been going up and up and up as bonds have been dropping. But this absolute vomit that actually shows that there is confidence in this system. Depending on who you listen to and who you don't listen to, you might have differing opinions on this.

But to me the way I interpreted this and this is just my own opinion. So please take it with a grain of salt. Here is this is telling me that people are just honestly using it as a buying opportunity. When you see yields vomit.

that means people are buying bonds. That means there's demand in bonds. And if there's demand in bonds, especially the short term. that tells me that not that many people are like overtly scared of this situation.

Um I Know that there's like a lot of doomsday callers out there. Like how this is gonna like. absolutely cause panic and blah blah blah. But understand.

Um I Believe these are roughly the numbers. So if you look at the whole crypto sphere, it's worth about 800 billion dollars. 800 billion with a B not even a trillion. If you look at the stock market, it's worth about 40 trillion dollars.

If you look at the bond market, you're talking a hundred billion. The Bond Market's the biggest Market of individual markets. It's absolutely huge. It's absolutely massive.

That's where the big money is. That's where the big players are. And of course, you do have big money players in crypto. You do have them in the stock market.

But if we're talking about just like the size of the biggest market and like where huge huge monies at, it's the Bond market. It's the boring bond market that doesn't really get much coverage. Not too many people like to talk about it, but overall, that's like the serious money. Just to give you the size of everything, the entire crypto Market is less than a hundredth of the size of the entire bond market.

Crypto: All of crypto is a drop in the bucket relative to bonds. so when we see like one going up going down, um, I think it's appropriate to like, just kind of give yourself a little bit of a speed check there to be like, okay, well like I get that it's going up, but they're not all made equal. So when I see yields dropping like this I.E Bond prices going up as of now and this might be too short of a term to call it out. I'm actually not seeing big money getting that panicked on this.

Like, of course, like there's gonna be some Panic There's going to be some variance within shorter time frames, like over a couple days, especially going into an inflation report, especially going into an Fomc meeting. especially coming out of an unemployment report. Yeah, there's going to be variance in the very short time frame, but when you just see a hardcore yield vomit, someone's buying bonds. Someone is clearly buying bonds.

so we'll see how it goes. It's just like 2008. I Don't think it's like 2008. There's some similarities, but I think it's uh.

actually, there's a lot of incredibly important differences between 2008 and now. Um, but speaking with that, okay, it's 9 15. I think there's some detail we should get into. Dow Falls 200 points giving up earlier gains as Bank shares slide.

So the one that's really vomiting this morning is First Republic Bank FRC Currently down 63 so as of now, the dialed the S P and the NASDAQ are red red with the NASDAQ being the lease down, the tech sector being the least sound oil recently taking a massive massive hit oil down to 73 which is not going to be good for my Oxy put credits red, but we'll see how that one ends up playing out and yields coming down. Which means Bond prices are going up in terms of seasonality. Today is a very strange day. Um, it was kind of neutral.

a little bullish recently. pretty bearish. and that's why I Just say the neutral. the seasonal influences on today I Just put neutral and weird.

So I'm not really considering uh, the seasonality as influencing any of my trades individually for today because it just, um, if anything, this just tells me there's volatility to the upside. And the downside. over the past 25 years of researching this in terms of macroeconomic reports events today, you already. If you're listening, you already went through it.

Uh, Biden Speaking at nine was like the major thing of the day. There might be additional developments, especially depending on if things get really really frosty in the market. So we're going to be paying attention to that. And other than that, I'm just going to be I'm I'm a little worried now about the oxy position right here.

This is um highlighted on your screen March 31st I sold the 58 I bought the 57. It is a put credit spread. It's not going to be looking so good after oil comes down this hard, but other than that, pretty happy with everything that is going on. We could do like a chart review for tomorrow, just so you know.

and I'll put this in the newsletter tonight just so you know. uh CPI report incredibly important Consumer Price Index uh in terms of media, it seems to be the most popular inflation report, but if you listen to the FED they actually like to weigh out the Pce more. but the next PC report the personal consumption expenditure report that comes out after the next Fomc meeting. so for this time around, it's not really going to matter much.

Later on this week we get retail sales. We get the producer price index, we get the normal Thursday stuff and then Friday consumer sentiment Kind of important, but that's a little bit of a snapshot of the things to look forward to for the remainder of the week. Five things to know before that: Bell goes Dingity ding ding ding happy bloody Monday and happy two-year Moon gang I had 10 Sbny 80, puts 421 and sold and wish I didn't Can you take a look at S C H W by chance I bought cause thinking English app wrong S-c-h-w let me write that down S C H W All right, we'll get into that one and thanks for the 24 months Dude, that's that's incredibly nice of you. You've been here for a hot minute, all right New Week and continued Insanity Let's I just keep coming back.

All right. Well, after the Biden speech, the Market's actually liking it I'm not saying I'm really the biggest fan of the man, but for that individual speech, he actually did a surprise I think he spoke like that was one of his most clear speeches to date, potentially within his entire life. Uh, I'm actually a little dumbfounded about how well Biden's speech went this morning. Every award all at once.

Is this the Oscars yeah I don't care about that. FDIC steps in. So this is what happened with the Silicon Valley Bank regulator stepped in and according to Biden all management fired. Crazy thing I Don't know if you guys saw this crazy thing about signature Valley Bank one of the high UPS like uh, one of the C-suite people was the C-suite person at Lehman Brothers Like this guy just has the worst track record.

Absolutely ridiculous. uh. Crypto rallies I Want to talk a little bit about that? but another Crypto banking. So we have Silvergate and then the other one Signature Signature now officially shut down.

So the two major banking infrastructure setups for the world of crypto are now done. so. Dunzo danzo, dunzo. Uh, what? One dollar will get you? Uh, and apparently one dollar is the value of the UK arm of Svb.

so we will be talking about that. So time to get into some of the detail before the Bell goes Dingity ding ding ding. The US Government stops in and says people with funds deposited at Svb will be able to access their money. I Think this is a good thing.

usually FDI Insurance only goes up to 250 000. That's what you're protected up to. So for example, if you have a million dollars in a bank account, 250 000 would be protected. the other 750 000 would not be protected if the bank goes under in this situation.

The Regulators Have decided that all depositor money is protected Regulators Approved plan Sunday To backstop both depositors and financial institutions associated with Silicon Valley Bank Officials will unwind both Svb and Signature Bank ensuring that depositors will have full access to their funds on. Monday The entire point of doing this is just to not cause Panic they're trying they don't want more Bank runs because then things will get worse and worse and worse. They're trying to basically posture very strongly at the start to calm everyone down. This is a lot more psychological I would argue than anything else.

The Federal Reserve stepped in with a separate facility that would provide loans up to one year for institutions affected by the bank failures. Today, we are taking decisive actions to protect the U.S economy by strengthening public confidence in our banking system. That's what they're doing. They are strengthening public confidence in terms of money.

I mean we've sent like so much money doing other things like I mean look at our our like overall total debt. We're talking about like 32 trillion dollars 200 billion In terms of the economy. in our situation, it's really not that much, but they're just trying to stop the bleeding before it gets worse, before it gets infected, before they contagion spreads. They don't want this to be another 2008 and I want to get into the details of how they stepped in and everything like that, but understand that this is not 2008 where the taxpayers like bailed out all these rich Bankers That's actually not this current situation whatsoever.

Wall Street Not Taxpayers will pay for the Svb and Signature Deposit Relief plans. The money to fully reimburse depositors of the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank and the shuttered Signature Bank will be furnished by other Banks not taxpayers. According to the treasury officials, The deposit Insurance Fund also known as the Dif, which will cover the deposits, is funded with quarterly fees assessed on financial institutions and interest on government bonds. Using the Dif to shore up depositors is seen by the Biden Administration as a way to avoid reigniting the public anger sparked by the 2008 taxpayer-funded Wall Street bailouts.

So I want to put that out there that this is I'm not saying it's perfect at all, but understand that it's a little bit different. Um, there's still some things I mean and hey, what? take what? I have to say with the grain of salt. I'm not saying that I'm a treasury expert, a banking expert, but I'm just saying. There are very clear differences from 2008 until now of where the money's coming from of how they're handling it I mean honestly, I wouldn't say they handled this absolutely perfectly, but I think they handled it much better than in the ways that they did it.

I would say a majority of what's developed in a very short time frame and obviously let me grant me the ability to change my opinion as things develop because this is this is new. We're basically talking about the past 72 hours like this is all coming at us rapid fire. but I think the overall handling in this situation is pretty solid. The only thing I don't want to happen here is I would refer to it as moral hazard all of a sudden if we get into a situation where any bank across America thinks they can do whatever they want because they're like, hey, if things get bad, the government's going to bail us out.

taxpayers are going to bail us out so we might as well take more undue risk I don't want that I don't want this to get into a situation where we take that type of moral hazard and I think in a weird way honestly that I liked in Biden's speech and this is like hey, I'm like I said I'm not the biggest fan of Biden whatsoever but the fact that that one of the things he really wanted to focus on is like hey, if this happens, you're all fired So if they come into the bank and they just fire all these, I think they should claw back the bonuses I think they should claw back any of the profits received from when they recently sold stock at the end of March referring to the Svb CEO and I believe CFO we could look at that a little bit later I would claw back all that money too. But I Don't see these people in this situation and we have to take every situation for what it is I don't see them really getting away scot-free and I think it's good that we did help. So understand that this: if you owned Svb stock, you're not getting bailed out. Those people are taking a serious loss.

Who is getting saved? Quote: Unquote saved In this situation, it is just the depositors people who just used it as a bank and they had their money in the bank this is. there's I Can't stress this enough, but there are massive, massive differences between 2008 and this. and even in this situation, it is the deposit. Insurance Fund It is the dif that is paying for this.

It is not taxpayers paying for this. The HSBC pays one pound to Resco Rescue Ukrma Silicon Valley Bank After all night talks, um hey, I bet any of us would have loved to pick up an entire bank for a dollar or a pound or a Euro or whatever the hell it is. It's Monopoly money. but apparently it's worth about a dollar 21 when you convert it to US dollar.

Um, so this is once again the UK arm of Silicon Valley Bank So Silicon Valley Bank It's still a huge bank. I Mean it's the 16th biggest bank. There is a very, very low likelihood that there is any other institution that could buy it all at like one. It's just too big so there's a most likely Svb is going to be split up into different silos and then sold off into Parts.

If we really had to guess how this is going to end up going, Bill Ackman says U.S did the right thing in protecting Svb depositors. Not everyone agrees. So he's been recently speaking. he was in some Twitter space calls.

he was going on TV He was doing things with CNBC and he was very specific to call it not a bailout said they did the right thing. uh I Don't think that you can understand the danger that the American baking system is in. So it's this concept of like yeah, on one side you're risking moral hazard of letting these Bankers do what they want taking out, taking on undue risk, but on the other side your risking contagion and it's in a weird situation where you have to somehow like thread the eye of the needle in between the two. You don't want the banking industry to think that they can continue with this type of stuff, but obviously some of them did it now and you don't want that to spread and become worse and impact all of us understand I I See a lot of people in the comments right now of like this is the battle it should have never done, it should have never done it.

Understand that there's a very good chance even if you had nothing to do with Svb if they did nothing, if they're like no, you were screwed like we're going full capitalist. we are not stepping in at all. We are not using the Dif. this would have been spreading to even the biggest bank.

So if you have money in Banks you probably would have been negatively impacted if they did nothing in this situation. so you don't want to Contagion to spread. but you also don't want there to be a sentiment that Bankers can do whatever they want and that's what I'm saying. This is actually like it's a very tough situation and I'm impressed with everyone involved of like maybe not perfectly, but it seems like they're like doing their best to get it into the middle of that situation.

But I guess in this, when not talking about people who own Svb, talk Svb So many acronyms today. My apologies, not talking about the people who own Svb stock. Those people are like they're just going to lose money. I'm talking about depositors.

Where's where's your mind at? Do you think it's appropriate that we supported and backstopped all depositors? as in just the people who had the money in the bank. Do you think that's appropriate? or do you guys think that like you should have? Just we should have just let them you know, figure it out like roll the die and see how it goes. uh I don't have much map I don't have millions? um same. but I still want my money to be protected and I also don't want other people who's maybe they're above that and like good for them if they are.

but if they're above the 250 000 like if those get screwed over, it could still end up screwing me over if all these Banks end up going down let them eat cake backstop. You mean bailout. Um, but it's not really a bailout because it's not funded by taxpayers. Uh, hopefully the FDI isn't dissolved.

So I was actually hearing about another. this was in a Twitter space call I Believe his name is like special Situations Jay and he was kind of pitching this concept of creating a whole new almost Insurance Fund that these Banks pay into and he was kind of explaining of how it would build up. Basically Banks would all be paying a whatever monthly quarterly fee and then that would almost be like the safety net for the whole industry. and once again talking about getting money from Banks and not taxpayers when things inevitably, uh, go like belly up thought Matt It is sponsored by the taxpayer.

Wait, how is it wait, how is it sponsored by the taxpayer? I'm a little confused on that. For people saying how is this sponsored by the taxpayer, the money is coming from a subset of the FDIC, the Dif, the and the Dif like, which is a sub. To my understanding, a sub compartment of the FDIC. The Dif gets its money from quarterly payments from Banks who funded the FDIC Well, we're talking where you have to talk about the sub compartment of the FDIC also known as the Dif.

Where does the Dif gets its money? The Dif gets its money from quarterly Bank payments. They need much more. Um, so I Believe when I looked into it, they had about a hundred billion in that and I Believe, See, please someone if I'm getting that like so many numbers have been flowing I believe there's a hundred billion in it. Um and that's what I'm saying is like I think if they paid more and we could build build that up a little bit better.

but the shortfall right now on Svb is probably close to 50 billion. So it's a 200 billion dollar company. But like the the quote-un hole that we're dealing with uh, most estimates right now and obviously this could change. This is a very Dynamic situation is in the realm of 50 billion.

Like this is a hole that can be repaired. This isn't some sort of like catastrophic like multi-trillion dollar blow up. uh but uh do you understand the little people always lose. but in this situation I would like little and medium people all got saved.

so people who own stock didn't get saved in this. but they all like if the people who had whatever whatever amount of money in it their the government stepping in not letting their bank accounts get blown up. FDIC has 125 billion. the shortfall of Svb is 150.

uh I was that might be true but I'm reading very different things I mean if you have a source like feel free to send it to me on Twitter we could go over it. Live here. I'm just saying like the sources that I've been reading over the weekend is the shortfall is around 50 billion not 150 billion. I don't think it could be 150 billion when I believe they only had 80 billion in bonds and mortgages.

All right, let's get ready. The Market's gonna open. Um, a thing I want to get into right here is First Republic is the one that seems to be on the chopping block today and obviously this has pretty large implications not only on China but also in the world of crypto. So let's get ready for today.

let's watch the market open. I Think this is going to be an absolutely crazy crazy open, but let's get ready. we have about. Oh wait, the bill.

There we go. The casino is open. It's almost like a special holiday version of the casino. But the Spy currently down point six, four percent First Republic Bank down 65.

We have the tech sector in the bottom right? Maybe maybe we should watch the dollar over here I Have the dollar Actually the dollar recently taking a pretty large hit. We have the FR This is just gonna get nuts. Uh, where's Tesla Tesla's at 168. I actually got out of my Tesla puts on Friday of last week I Didn't think that this craziness was gonna keep going.

Keep going, keep going. I Would love for Oxy to be above 58 just for those put credit spreads that I'm in. Lots of red apples. Actually green is the tech sector going to lead the way back up.

Is the tech sector going to be the thing that saves the markets today? Uh, privatized profits? Socialized losses the American way? maybe and like hey, I Would love for anyone to explain this to me, but what I'm confused about is how is this? How are we socializing losses here? Everything that I'm seeing and like once again like let's go over this in real time. Uh, if you have it like DM it to me I could bring it up. but all of my research all weekend is that the people paying for this Are Banks I don't see the taxpayers paying for the like FDIC stepping in with Svb. Um, so if you have it like I mean obviously I'm against that too.

like I don't want Bankers to be running around and if they mess up, taxpayers pay for everything and that's what happened in 2008. Very much against how that was handled, but I'm saying in this circumstance, that's just not my understanding of the situation. uh LOL sure banks are paying I mean they might not be, but like you'd have to have some sort of like information, you can't just you just can't say it. FRC Yeah, it's halted right here.

I mean we can bring it up Uh FRC uh Training Hall at halted one minute into the day. Reason not available is this one also Halton hang on I'm I mean there's everything's just going Sbny s did they force a hall on it? Why is that one not trading? It seems like everything's just going a little. Looks like it was trading this morning as it halted. Now lots of circuit breakers.

it went down. Oh, it didn't even open because of it being C So right here this is, um, the failures of Signature, Svb, Silvergate mean. for crypto, it depends on how this is all going to go. Who even? Uh, Silvergate and Crypto? Um, all right.

Silvergate and Signature were the two main banks for crypto companies. while Svb had a lot of crypto startups by Sunday night when the FED stepped in to backstop deposits, that Signature and Svb cryptocurrencies were rallying. Uh, Stable Coins has regained their pegs. Um, this is gonna somewhat be similar to the process that's referred to as being made whole.

Um, but depending on if they let it trade on the market or not like it was seized I don't know who's gonna take it over I could dive a little bit more into it. um, but there's a chance that it could just be evaluated at whatever like the last trades were at. but I'll dive into it I'll do a little bit FRC it's going to be a five minute haul Apple Doing well. We have the Spy drop bouncing trying to bounce off the 380-150 as of now.

Um I don't have those cue puts anymore I don't have those Tesla puts anymore. but I do have all that premium that I sold and let me just see how that's doing. Everything's doing well, but Oxy and I only created Oxy because I was trying to like protect myself. Man, how much Oh Oxy Oxy Oxy Oxy ooh like oil is just getting destroyed.

Uh I very much need Oxy back above 58. Wal also halted. Hang on, let's bring up that one. Western Yet a lot of regional Banks You have a lot of these mid-sized smaller size banks that are now just they're just going haywire and what? The Binding Administration What Regulators are attempting to do is calm everyone down to stop Bank runs.

but people aren't running on banks because they're like, you know what? Let me just take my money out and they don't want to take that risk and I understand that for sure. But this is a weird thing where I see some people lobbying for the fact of just like Let It fail and my issue with that is if if we just generically lit these all fail if we just let all depositors get screwed. um, all that does is make the oligopoly of JPMorgan Bank of America City and Wells Fargo that much stronger I Don't think it's a good system where like just all the power goes to a small group of big big Banks um and I think that's something that needs to be considered in this situation is like if if they just all get absolutely destroyed it like I mean does anyone really want a system where it's just those Banks all the time? I I Don't think that's good but I didn't lies about everything he says. why would this time be any different? Raising the insurance limit to Infinity seems like a disaster.

Um well it's been done before. this is I if you look at I believe it's the end of 2010 I Want to say December of 2010 all the