If you're like me, when you went to bed last night, you set very close to your phone maybe maybe your phone was your pillow and you were just dreaming of all those beautiful crypto games. It's been rippity, skippity dudah absolutely going orbital because of two main catalysts: the anticipation of the Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval and then also the having event in April Those are the two major catalysts and everyone in the world of crypto. For pretty much most of 2023. coming into 2024, the Bulls were pretty excited really really laughing at the Bears and it was true.

when you went to bed and actually most of the night you were feeling good and then all of a sudden all crypto started to B. So what I want to explain to you is everything that's going on right now. And really the TLD Drr of this is spot Bitcoin ETF Approval denied. but I want to get into really what's going on in the story and explain some of the nuances because I think that's where the real useful information is is in the nuances of what prompted the selloff.

And really, as you're about to find out why I think it's a little bit of baloney. just yesterday, our boy Jimbo Kramer ended up being bullish on crypto and I'm saying that in a little bit of a confused manner because many of you know that he's hated crypto for years And years and years. and then all of a sudden, the day that he becomes bullish, less than 24 hours later, there's a giant 1 hour vomit, which makes this particular meme that much more funny. That's a nice asset you got.

There would be a shame if I were to speak positively about it, folks. you cannot make this up. truly. whenever he does anything, the opposite ends up coming to fruition.

So a day before the crypto drop, this is exactly what Jim Kramer was saying: no, there won't be an ETF But I do think that the people who are in it for that are going to use that as a chance to sell, but this thing is it. You can't kill it. Looking back on it now, we should have all known that was the dagger to the heart when Jim Kramer comes on and says you can't kill it most likely going to get merked the very next day. And that's what happened in the small short time frame in the world of crypto.

but specifically Bitcoin So the question is why what actually happened this morning Bitcoin Reversed his course ahead of eagerly awaited ETF decision. Largest cryptocurrency, erases all gains registered this year Bitcoin had reached 45k for the first time in 21 months and it was shortlived SEC will reject all Bitcoin spot ETFs in January says Matrix Port analyst before We maybe give this particular analyst like a little bit too much credit here. Understand that most of fwit is saying who the is that guy cuz no one's heard of it before. but yet the story had enough steam that freaks some people out.

So they sold price drops and then obviously a lot of people are training crypto in a very leverage sense. so if it drops a little bit, there's a chance that they get margin called. So then there's a bunch more selling. And that's why the saying of stairs up elevator down is a very, very true thing.

In the world of crypto, it's because of the people trading it in a leverage nature where if it drops a little, they can technically blow out their entire account. So selling baguettes selling Matrix Port Analyst Marcus Thelan said that the SEC will like reject all Bitcoin Spot ETF proposals this month. Theing argued that applications still fall short of critical requirement that must be met before the SEC can improve them. Maybe true, probably not true.

What I think is more interesting is the commentary from this particular analyst who I'm not saying he's right, I'm not saying he's wrong, more so in the world of politics and I'll explain that in one second. In contrast to Broad Market consensus Matrix Port Analyst Marcus Thelen anticipates that the SEC will decline all Bitcoin Spot ETF proposals in January. Despite the frequent meetings and updated S1 prospectuses between filers and the SEC in recent weeks, thein pointed out in a report that these applications still fall short of critical requirement that must be met before the SEC can improve them. The analyst based his perspective on the political Dynamics and compliance concerns.

The analysts argue that wallet and ETF would help enable crypto takeoff in the US the SEC chair. Gary Gendler still sees the industry as needing more stringent comp clients, so let's cut through all that BS and explain actually what he's talking about. For those of you who maybe aren't in the political no, as it relates to the SEC and Congress and Crypto, it's well well known. A couple things here.

Number one: Elizabeth Warren Senator Elizabeth Warren hates crypto. If you listen to her talk about it, she makes up facts, she speaks half truths, and she just says random things. and really she just all crime in the world is paid with by crypto I I mean I Hope she doesn't find out how much crime in the world is paid by the US dollar cuz that might blow her freaking mind. but is crypto perfect? No, there's going to be nefarious, elicit activities that are funded with crypto, but by a percentage basis.

It is very, very small compared to the US dollar and many other currencies. So I'm not going to sit here and be like no crime is ever funded by it. Yes, no, some crime is funded by it, but it's not a major issue like the stats would just tell us that once again, she just makes up facts and she speaks half truths so that one aspect of the story, one important framework of the story, the other part is that the Chairman of the SEC Mr Gary Gendler, he has effectively hitched his political hopefulness to Elizabeth Waren for a bit there when there was some murmurs of Elizabeth Warren being the Democratic nominee, Gary Gendler very much wanted that to happen because there's a lot of speculation that if she were to become the President, Gary Gendler would become the Treasury Secretary. And all these people in the swamp that we call DC want more power, Want more money? And that's exactly what Gary Gendler is trying to do.

He's trying to get more money. He's trying to become more powerful. Yeah, he might dress it up of I'm trying to protect investors, but we all know that's obviously a bunch of baloney because what has he done to actually protect investors? So anyway, Elizabeth Waren, who hates Crypto Gary Gendler Who's basically just going to do whatever she says. So we have this interesting situation where the public wants this to be approved, but the head of the SEC because of his connection to Elizabeth Waren, there's a good chance that he just denies it.

SEC Cher Gendler is not embracing crypto in the US and it might even be a very long shot to expect that he would vote to approve the Bitcoin spot. ETFs This might be fulfilled in Q2 of 2024, but we expect the SEC to reject all proposals in January. So even with all this being said, this guy who's coming off as a bit bearish is still saying hey, like I don't think they could hold out for much longer, There's been far too much fraud and Bad actors in The crypto field. According to Geszler, there's a lot of non-compliance not only with the Securities Law but other laws around anti-money laundering and protecting the public against Bad actors.

So dressing it up he could say whatever he wants. But honestly, I think there's a lot of blame with the whole FTX debacle. You know, the largest financial crime ever on Gary Gendler's shoulders. He's not the guy who made the regulations clear, he's the guy who met with Sam Bank R Freed multiple times, got connected through both of them being at MIT and yet the biggest Financial crime ever known to man happened under his watch.

So little bit of sketchy stuff going on here. If the Bitcoin spot ETF applications are denied by the SEC this month, the analyst expects to see cascading liquidations as billions of dollars in Perpetual long Bitcoin Futures unwind. This could lead to Bitcoin's price dropping sharply around 20% back to the mid $30,000 range. If this were to happen and it's a possibility, I'm letting you know that I'm buying more because I think it's going to be inevitable that it eventually gets approved.

So if there's a moment between now and then, that I could pick it up at a cheaper cost dollar cost average. obviously I will. So in the meantime, just for the sake of posterity, I Do want to let you know that as I'm filming this, the overall market cap of Crypto has dropped from 1.8 trillion down to 1.6 Bitcoin Currently trading in the mid 42s eth at 22, you have salon at 98. but if you're looking at some of this stuff, it did take kind of a brutal hit recently.

this is exact. This was the effect right here of people getting a little bit scared and then we had these cascading uh Market liquidation because people were leveraged so we saw it in Bitcoin We saw it in Ethereum. We saw it in Salana. I Personally believe this will be shortlived I Don't know how short shortlived actually is, but in the long term I'm not really an active Trader of crypto.

I'm more of an investor in my favorites such as Bitcoin and Ethereum and I'm just going to wait to see how this all plays out justtin. Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Ballad Chunis I always mess up his name. we actually interviewed him on the channel he's an awesome guy says we have heard heard nothing to indicate anything but approval. I Wanted to share this with you because most of Wall Street Most people in the world of I guess economics that are tracking crypto and are paying attention to the story most agree that it there's still a higher chance of approval than denial.

So yes, there is one analyst now saying hey, I don't think it's going to happen. but please understand that is not the consensus. There's arguably analysts who have been more accurate who are more respected who still believe it's going to be approved in January. So is that a guarantee? Obviously not.

But I Just want to let you know that this is not the consensus. The consensus is a spot Bitcoin ETF Approval in January of 2024 and then just to wrap this all up I Thought this was kind of cool Galaxy and Investco Spot Bitcoin ETF Applicants released a video celebrating Bitcoin's birthday. Give it a watch. 15 years ago, a Revolution was born not in the streets, but in the silent depths of the digital world.

a F and Spark A whisper of change in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Jan Bitcoin The very first block was created 15 years ago today. Bitcoin embodies empowerment in the digital age. Its fixed and predictable Supply makes it a potentially robust store of value, free from the control of any individual or government.

The white paper displayed above me laid the foundation for this novel technology, offering a solution for people anywhere in the world to securely send and receive digital money using the internet Like any 15-year-old Bitcoin is still a teenager. People are still trying to understand its place in the world, but one thing is certain: we are committed to helping you understand and explore the transformative potential of Bitcoin Happy Birthday Bitcoin So I wanted to share that with you just to better illustrate that throughout Crypto's history really Bitcoin's history, there's been considerable UPS considerable Downs You can see that switch any chart to a weekly a monthly chart. There's been crazy stories all the time: Rips, dips, other rips, other dips, other rips, other dips. So yes, is this an important story in the shortterm? I Agree, it is.

Things get emotional whenever it comes to money. but in the long-term picture of what is this of putting the power of currency back in the hands of people versus these governments who I would not trust them I trust them as far as I can throw them I think in the long term I still feel very, very strongly that this will end up being a massive, massive winner and even if it's not this particular one, if it's not Bitcoin which I do think has the best case to being the leader of Crypto I would still even more strongly believe that fiat currency will be a failing thing. so I have a lot of faith in Bitcoin but I have even more issues and negative sentiment and feeling towards actual fiat currency. So yes, I get it right now.

Tensions are high, There was some optimism, then there was some pessimism and everyone's going all over the place. So I wanted to add a little bit more clarity to what the actual situation is and also just a little bit of a reminder to hey, take a Beat Just Breathe Understand what's going on, understand where we've come from, and take a better understanding of the overall picture. And basically it's a fancy way of saying just don't freak out Calm, cool, collected is obviously the way.