Hello, hello, hello. I hope you had an absolutely fantastic week and i'm super excited to be here because it's going to be an absolutely not only just an insane week, but an insane two-week stretch. We are in the thick of it. Folks, we are in the absolute thick of it right now, one of the biggest earning weeks that we're gon na possibly see we're gon na be going over.

All of that and what you should and shouldn't be paying attention to, or so a lot of volatility there, and then this is gon na lead into more earnings next week, but on top of that we also get the fed. So this is this is the time where you're gon na see i i don't see how it's possible that we don't have more volatility, like i think things are about to get bonkers and even before the market has officially opened today, we're already like we're already seeing That i mean, if you haven't we're going to talk about twitter twitter up. How much is it up right now in pre-market up another 4.8 percent? We obviously have big big news related to elon and twitter, so i'm going to be going over all the details and then obviously we can watch the ticker throughout the day because you never know when something's going to get announced and this thing could just go absolutely Haywire, we will yes be taking a look at the overall market, just so we're a little bit more calm, cool collected, but right now, folks, man, oh man, put your like buckle up put like the double seat belt, buckle up, because volatility is the name of the Game for the next two weeks, and i think it's just gon na get higher and higher and higher from there we'll also do a little bit of chart review. I have a crazy story.

I need to share with you. We could look at some of the ortex short interest numbers uh, but i'll do my best to save a little bit of time and we'll get rockin today. So let me switch this up before we get into all that fun stuff. Don't forget! Sign up for public.

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It's in the description of the video i've been on public now for quite a while. I like how they mix social media with training, as in you can kind of see like you can follow. Other people see what they are invested in see what they're not invested in. That's personally, where i've decided to park my amc in gme shares just because, like i said, i trust public and hey if you're curious about it, you have they're gon na pay you to at least figure out it's for you and i think, by the time you Get rocking you're gon na realize that you two enjoy it.

So here's a look at pre-market of. What's going on the s p 500 has been selling off for two days same with the qs twitter, as you can see right now up 4.8 in pre-market and we're going to be talking a lot about twitter, ticker, symbol, twtr and our boy elon, and what's going On there some craziness, craziness craziness gm says it will produce electric chevrolet corvettes, that's kind of an interesting piece of breaking news. Gm says it will produce electric chevrolet corvettes uh. So this is just coming out.

Gm also reporting later uh about midweek. So the dow, the s p, 500 and the nasdaq are in the red we're looking at the futures market. So now this is what two and a half days of not so good. Obviously anything can happen throughout the trading day.

I don't know whenever, like i, don't, have a particular bias for an individual day. I know we've had two really rough days, so i could understand the argument of like a little bit of a reversionary bounce, but overall i want to make this explicitly clear. So please please listen up. I believe the odds of the fact that we have not seen the yearly low on the s p 500 are extraordinarily high.

Another way to say that is, i think at some point. It might happen today. It might happen in the next couple weeks, maybe the next couple months. I believe the market will continue to go down and down and down.

I do not think we've put in the yearly low quite yet. So i just that's obviously my opinion. I'm not a financial advisor, i'm just a guy who has a plethora of duck shirts, but i want to make it clear on where i stand and really a lot of this, not so much with earnings. Some of these earnings have been actually surprisingly good.

It's more of the hawkishness of the federal reserve. I think we are finding a very serious uphill battle. I think we are running into some very serious head ones, and i don't think that you can under appreciate how much power the fed has over the entire equities and what you're also going to see in the equities or excuse me in the crypto market. We already know that equities are just getting like it's absolute teeth kicked in right now, but if you have not been paying attention to crypto, it's pretty much the same general vibe over there there's a lot of blood in the water.

These periods happen. Are they going to last forever? Absolutely not, but with it? What i want to, i guess, probably spend some time articulating to all of you - is, if you're more of an active trader, doing your own thing if you're a long-term investor right now, it's painful to look at your 401k, but if you're an active trader. This means more volatility. More volatility means more opportunity if you're your own trader, if you're a resale trader, it's these types of environments.

When you hear those stories of like i turned 10k into a million dollars like those types of stories, they're bred out of environments like this, so i i beg of you, like you - almost have to reshape your mindset. This is not the time to be like scared and be like. Oh maybe i shouldn't be in the market. These are the times that retail traders love because there's so much volatility, which means so much opportunity and that's why we're all here hanging out trying to help each other out.

It's trying to do our best to spot said opportunity. Five things to know before the stock market opens today monday april 25th, the last trading week of april wall street set to open, lower after friday's sharp declines. Well, it should say friday and thursday's sharp decline and we should also talk about oil. Chinese stocks crushed as lockdown in shanghai persist.

So those are the two things right away. We got to get off the table and then we'll get more into the specifics of twitter. Dow futures, false 330 points, global stocks, tumble as central bank's hawkishness and chinese lockdowns intensify worries about economic growth, global stocks, tumbled monday. After last week's ugly close on wall street, the dow lost almost a thousand points.

I really don't like using the dow just because the dow is 30 of our biggest companies. I prefer to actually track what's going on with the s p 500, but that's just a personal thing for me: concerns over strict new coven 19 measures in beijing drove asian equities and oil prices. Lower investors are nervous about the possibility of disappointing big tech earning results. This week, so that's the general scene, but let's get into a little bit more of the specifics and one i need to dive into.

Is this whole oil thing because i think that's actually going to potentially bode well for one interesting earnings report this week. One of the ones that i'm actually the most confident of being bullish on the rest, i could see a rent being thrown into this situation. Oil drops over china coven lockdowns concerns and fed rate hikes cause demand, worries oil slipped on monday, as china tightened lockdowns and conducted mass testing to control a coven 19 outbreak. The federal reserve signal that it may raise rates quickly prompted fears of a hit to economic growth.

It's this line right here this, like one little sentence that really changed it all. This was all being stated on thursday and ever since the game changed on thursday jerome powell, the chairman of the fed, basically saying folks, we're we're hawkish like we don't know how to tell you that we are going to be extremely hawkish. We're looking at a 0.5 interest rate increase once again. This will come out on wednesday may 4th not this wednesday, but next wednesday, on top of that they're more hawkish, because they're going to start looking at their balance sheet right now, the earliest - i guess murmurs related to it - are about a three-year time frame to take Care of what they've done, but there's a lot of questions of will they be able to pull off a soft landing.

A lot of people saying hell, no dude. This situation is completely screwed anyway, on thursday, we lost to 2.3. Once again, this is the power of the fed, and actually it got even worse. In two days, the overall market lost five percent.

Remember we're talking about a 50 trillion dollar entity when you lose five percent in two days. That's a big big deal. I need everyone to appreciate the power that the fed obviously has and a good example of, even with this, how you don't want to fight into those headwinds. So, let's take a look at last week: tesla reported after the market closed on wednesday had a surprise, beat in fact tesla gapped up almost 10, but then because of what we saw in the overall market from there all tesla did was sell off.

It dropped six percent from its open and then it dropped an additional. However much percent on friday, an additional one percent once again tesla it beat - and this is important to understand, because we have a lot of earnings coming up. Even if you're, like hey man, i'm feeling really good about this because of x, y and z, you cannot really discount the power of the overall market, even if your prediction is right and your company beats top and bottom line. Things are crushing it if the overall market is selling off, that's not a good situation.

So the way you can actually use that in terms of really, i guess formulating, your own trades find the earnings that you think are also going to be in line with the overall markets direction. If you're bullish on the market find earnings that you think are going to be, if you're bearish on the market find earnings that you think are going to miss, try to find as many things that are going to be in line as possible, not this mixed bag Type of a scenario, and last but not least in terms of the overall picture, i just thought this was interesting. The u.s finally nominated an ambassador to ukraine. After two years of leaving the post empty president, joe biden nominated bridget brink as the next u.s ambassador to ukraine, but it has been criticized for allowing the position to remain unfilled.

For so long. The news comes as anthony blinken and lloyd, austin traveled to ukraine. On sunday to show support, so there's a little bit about drama about this of like. Should they cut it, because i guess it was supposed to be a little bit more like kind of a secret meaning type of a thing, but obviously it went through on sunday and there's just a little bit more political development.

The reason i'm bringing this up is because obviously this development with russia and ukraine and the us - and where are we helping them with money, or is this going to lead to a worse situation, or is the situation getting better all that stuff? It should be monitored at least like check in to see what's going on at least once a day, so you have a better idea because there's clearly massive implications on the market. Speaking of implications on the market, it's been a hot minute since we looked at the seasonal chart. So typically over the past two decades worth of data april is one of the most bullish months out of the year. You might be saying what the i want a refund, because this april sucks unless you've been betting against the market, then you're like dude.

I love this april, but if you were bullish following what the seasonal patterns tell us to do uh, it is clearly gone. The exact opposite now, what's important is as we're getting into may don't forget. We have more earnings, we also have the fed, and i also want to put out that. Like point out, i should say the seasonal, i guess, influence for the first two thirds.

The first three quarters of may is actually bearish, so we were bullish, albeit that was obviously wrong this year um, but i just want to make everyone well aware that may the first two to three weeks of may not the best period a little bit more bearish Dominated so i just want to call that out to everyone. Coca-Cola's profit be leads busiest week of earnings, so coca-cola be on the top and the bottom line we will be covering the other earnings that are going to be going. Twitter jumps five percent on reports. It's ready to accept elon musk's offer.

Obviously that's going to be a very important aspect of today's entire show, so we'll be spending more time on that u.s pledges more military aid for ukraine, as officials visit. So last week we gave them 800 million, and now the new pledge just pledged over 700 million in military financing to help ukraine. They will be asking congress for that this week. So that's the overall picture.

Now, let's get into a little bit more of the specific stuff man? Oh man, you better listen up, because this is the story that just keeps on giving. So before the market is opening. On monday april 25th, we were hit with a bombshell from our boy, elon musk, and you might be thinking man, it seems, like all he's doing, is dropping bombshells on us day over day, whether it's something with tesla something with twitter, something with just making fun of Bill gates, it's the story that just keeps on giving. It is the story of elon musk and this twitter story.

The saga, this crazy narrative just took a major major u-turn. The tldr version was, it looks like it wasn't going to be the best because they were setting up for a poison pill. It really looked like twitter's board was going to do what it needed to to ensure that elon musk did not own the company and take it private. Well, as of this morning, right before the market is going digging ding ding ding.

We have a big big update. Twitter on track to reach deal with musk as soon as monday, once again, depending on when you're watching this it's referring to monday april 25th. Obviously, as soon as this came out, we saw a spike in twitter in the bottom left. Here you can see that twitter closed at 49, currently trading at 51 and just to keep everyone in the loop remember elon's offer is at 54.20 a share that will be important in just a second, but anyway on the news that broke around 7 a.m.

Twitter shares jumped 5 on reports. It could accept elon musk's bid as early as monday, i'm gon na be the first to say it. I think i got this one a little bit wrong. I did not think that the board was ever gon na play ball.

I simply thought that they were too egotistical and they just didn't basically want to bend the knee and get to continue to get dunked on by elon. I thought they were going to say. Okay, we're going to. We had reports last week that they were going to consider it, and i thought that was just so they didn't get sued to kingdom come.

I really thought that i was like. Okay. Obviously they don't want to get in trouble for not following their fiduciary responsibility, which was in question because they didn't even bring it to their shareholders. So i was like okay, that's a little bit sus, so it sounds like they're just going to do this back and forth just so they don't get sued, but the fact that they actually might be accepting it.

Today, big big news twitter shares jumped more than five percent in pre-market on reports. The company is nearing a deal with elon musk that could be announced as soon as today. Musk earlier this month offered to buy twitter at 54.20, a share for 43 billion, don't forget and we're gon na get into the details of this, but he actually ended up raising money through some other partners up to 46.5 billion. So he has a little bit of wiggle room.

Twitter's board had met on sunday to discuss musk's financing plan for his proposed bid. The board negotiated with musk into the early hours on monday, according to the new york times and man. Oh man, this story is just not remember massive u-turn at first they're like okay, is he trolling where's the money gon na come from, and then we knew about the poison pill and there was still the offer of or the potential of a tender offer, but he Could still get poison pill which would just ensure he never owned more than 15 of the company, but it's a fair question: how elon musk's twitter deal went from no go to possible reality in just a few weeks. I just want to give you the highlights, as musk got more serious investors who became more convinced, he wouldn't be successful.

Investors might have had a point yet again. Twitter adopted a so-called poison pill that is designed to throw unsolicited bids for a company by making it more expensive for the acquirer. Really, what happens there? Is they offer current shareholders shares at a discount and price? So there's more shares in the overall pool so percentage-wise in terms of ownership. It would dilute it and it would just ensure it never gets above 15, but people were like okay, there's various other things he could do, and it looks like this time.

It's just. I believe that twitter's board is realizing how outspoken the global internet community pretty much is against them in support of elon. I know there's some people that absolutely hate elon, but all of a sudden, they're becoming very, very quiet. One reason strangely was money: amid the musk twitter battle, investors started to wonder if musk could finance the bid.

Musk's wealth is in the range of 300 billion investors in tesla, however, wouldn't want to see. Musk sell tesla stock outright to buy twitter tesla's investors would prefer to see musk finance twitter, which basically getting a loan against his collateral in twitter. So basically, some big wig bank says: okay, your tesla shares are your collateral and we're gon na give you the loan that you need and musk announced he had lined up 46.5 billion 3.5 billion extra from what we previously saw of his initial offer of 5420 in Financing for a twitter buyout, he also floated a biostructure that would lit some existing twitter shareholders stays in twitter. If musk was successful, taking the company private, apparently they aren't sure what to do based on recent history.

They might want to bet musk will win or that twitter will pull itself up for a bid ultimately going to a higher offer. So this is interesting and i was ruminating on this myself of the fact that they're now, obviously for sale in more of a public manner. I'm sure there's many tech players out there right now, who are basically just saying get on the phones with our lawyers or ftc lawyers. Make sure that us buying twitter is not a violation of like antitrust rules and see if we actually can give an offer and hey if musk is coming in at 54.

20. Maybe we'll come at 57.50, something like that, but you never know how much headway was made in the conversations. Apparently they were talking till early early hours in the morning it. This might be a pretty much a done deal, today's going to be very exciting, and you never know when extra news is going to break so uh.

I have a little clip from dan ives that i want to share with you uh, but uh the offers. It isn't sure if twitter can do better than 5420. Once again, this is a wed bus, analyst dan ives, while the board approved the poison pill, which essentially gave them the time to find a white knight and second bidder likely, they are now empty-handed. So dan ive saying hey, maybe no one else even wants it.

Twitter reports earnings later this week on thursday, which will likely not be rainbows and smiles and thus putting further pressure on the company around this game of high-stakes poker with musk bid looming. So i do want to play this for all of you. I thought it was interesting insight from mr ives he's a cool guy moving higher this morning, multiple reports, including one just by bloomberg, saying that the company said to be on track to now reach an agreement with elon musk as early as today. Joining us right now is dan ives of web bush securities, a man who i have to say in advance.

If, in fact, we get get, there called this right from the beginning said that elon was not going away when at one point he said he was going away or getting off the board, and here we are. We should also note dan that tesla shares uh moving down on this news. What do you make of both okay, i think at this point you know a deal seems basically on the glide path to get done now. I think that, once the financing got put in place last week with the tender offer, we believe, potentially as a threat in terms of a hostile tender offer, the board couldn't find a white knight, a second bidder.

This basically put back against the wall. They had to come to the negotiation table which we believe it looks like in the next 24 hours. According to his reports that musk, you know, will be successful in his bid for twitter, so there you have it. It looks like the main thing that was the hiccup in this whole saga was the financing, but now that that's in place there's quite a bit of pressure on twitter's board to basically accept it and the last couple things i want to leave you with with all Of this, just because it relates to twitter trump snubbed twitter as a boring place, he wouldn't return to, but he also made one post on his twitter replacement platform, true social, since its launch now connected to twitter, two things i need to say here.

This is actually making the bearish case against dwack, true social, that much stronger. I don't know how many people are going to go over there if elon is kind of the new leader of twitter, so i want to throw that out there, but i also want to say if elon were to call up trump and say yo i'll put you Back on twitter, he would totally retract this. I just don't think trump would ever stay away from twitter if he were allowed back on another thing: big short investor, michael burry, quits, twitter, again for the millionth time and complains he warned people that stocks would tumble uh. So he's been on his kind of like high horse thing, with hey we're going down going down going down, and i look at it this way of, if you're always saying that, well, eventually, you're gon na be right, but also just related to twitter.

I think it's funny that he's on again off again on again off again to wrap this all up. Don't forget we're gon na be getting big announcements related to it, whether today or tomorrow, and we're going to get more on thursday before the market opens. On thursday. We are getting the earnings announcement for twitter.

The final thing is more of a question to all of you is. How do you think this plays out? I need to know, because i think there's a money-making opportunity in here and i'm basically watching 54-20, because that's the offer and i think hey if you're bullish on twitter and elon and the combination of the two - i guess. Theoretically, you could play it up to there. Do you think this is good for freedom of speech? Do you think this is bad for freedom of speech? This is all just so wild, so i would love to get your thoughts and opinions.

Let me know in a comment below another thing. I want to talk about before the bell goes: ding any ding, ding ding is our boy. Gabe plotkin and melvin capital, melvin capital, founder game plot and in a letter to investor, says i am sorry. I got this one wrong.

I made a mistake. I apologize after exploring a plan last week that would return capital clients and then reopen the fund and then here's the full letter you can find it by lydia lj m-o-y-n-i-h-a-n. If you want to find this on twitter yourself, i also retweeted it. But what's so interesting about this is we were all looking at the story last week of gabe plotkin, basically saying i'm shutting down and then i'm gon na reopen and it seemed weird and then actually because of dave lauer we were able to get a little bit.

Maybe better understanding of? Why would you shut one down and then reopen it like? Why do that? Well, it all comes into how hedge funds are run and the fact that gabe plotkin is a greedy little. So a lot of the times, you're gon na get performance fees as in, if you make them money, if the fund is up, you get, you keep 20 of those profits. Well, when you suck ass and lose a lot of money, you don't get those performance fees until you're back at that high water mark. Well, remember: melvin capital has dug itself such an incredible hole.

Obviously, plotkin is not really, i guess, excited or confident in his ability to dig himself out of said hole which he needs to do that before he can once again get his performance fee, not bonuses, but just payment structure. So he's like, i have a bright idea. I want that performance fee structure. Now, why don't i just shut it down start a new hedge fund, basically wipe the like slate clean in terms of their historic performance, so right away can recapture those performance fees if he goes positive, which it's scummy and that's.

Why you're all of a sudden like people freaked out and that's why he was forced to write this letter because, like his investors, lost their mind on them like this guy, like you might think that he was getting attacked pretty bad by apes on social media? That pales in comparison to what happened from these big time: investors like the like manhattan wall street type, who gave this guy hundreds of millions. If not billions, of dollars. They're like dude, you are screwing us. We know exactly what we're doing you're doing and we are not happy with it.

So once again, this is and it's funny because he was like talking about how i believe he named this after his grandfather, and he like wants to be at the highest ethical standards. I tried to teach my kids that everyone makes mistakes but ultimately, is about how you can handle. Accountability is critical. I got this wrong and for that i apologize to each of you dude you're, literally just saying i'm not going to dig myself out of this hole.

I want my performance fee, so i'm going to restart a fund and hopefully i don't blow it up the way that i blew up melvin capital. Obviously, that's a messed up move clearly we're all like that does not like that's a shitty thing to do, but the thing i want to stress about this is melvin capital. In my mind, did they make inappropriate steps? Do i think that they are not ethical? 100? Do i have an issue with them, betting against jimmy? No, i i don't and a lot of you, your jaw might be on the ground right now. Wait, matt doesn't have a pro.

No, i don't you're allowed to engage in the market you want. I have an issue with malicious shorting, but i think everyone should be able to go long. Go short. You should be able to make the bet that you want to make there's a difference, though, when you have malicious shorting and i honestly think that melvin capital is being set up to be the scapegoat.

I think it's very easy for them to be the symbol of the debacle that really played out in january of 2021, and my fear in this scenario, is that all of a sudden people are just gon na forget about citadel. I think citadel and ken griffin are just going to sidestep this melvin capital is going to take like the brunt of everything of not only government and regulatory backlash, but also social backlash, and then, once again, the market makers get away absolutely scot-free. Do i care that melvin capital shorted am or gme? No, they got it wrong and that's why they lost 50. I think people should be able to short.

Once again, i want to be very clear about this. Illegal illicit shorting is a completely different ballgame. They made a bad play and they obviously had to pay a massive massive. I guess multi-billion dollar speeding ticket for it, but right here i still think the root of the issue uh, the more we've been going through this, so much of it should be focusing on market makers the people of what happened with robin hood.

Why was the buy button take away all that stuff, the extreme amount of off exchange trading, the payment for order flow, the buy button being taken away? All of those things are things that need to be looked into and actually have nothing to do with melvin capital. So, just because this played out don't think that the scenario is done. I think this is like one little caveat of the entire story. A little thing i do want to go over uh now, we'll cover this later, because the bell's about to go ding any ding.

Ding ding, let me switch it over to the one minute chart. Let's get ready for the day at any moment, we're going to see crazy movements in twitter just on when something is or isn't announced, so we're going to be just waiting for that. We have tesla here i just quickly on amc oops that was very loud in my ears: uh amc, short interest of 19 percent cost to borrow still very low and then just under 19 is gme for those of you who are like or like interested in twitter's. It's not really that short, it's 6.5 um the utilization is low.

Twitter is not a short squeeze play just to be clear. Let's see how things are, opening out of the gate. Amc actually shot up to 1650 um twitter. Obviously, in the green in the bottom left we have the spy uh.

I posted this on locals. I kind of do my pre-morning like run down just like type out my ideas and my idea on the spy. Is i'm watching 421 technically a little bit less than that, but i think that's an easy play on the s. P.

500.. All right! How are we looking out of the gate? Gme, not moving, no volatility things, i'm seeing red, i'm seeing a lot of red. In fact, one of the only green things i see right now is dogecoin all right, ding, ding ding. The casino is open once again shout out to today's stream sponsor i am talking about public sign up for it if you're not on it, there's no reason not to be you get free stock when you sign up no payment for order flow, no market makers check It out very happy, that's where i personally park, my amc and gme shares um way way way way prefer to have it on public rather than whatever robin hood or weeble.

I think it's silly for it to be over there, hey, if you haven't already uh, don't forget to join up with the moon game by hitting the subscribe button if you're a returning, viewer and you're like hey, i just don't want to hit that button uh. I understand that, but also understand that my emotional state is 100 tied to my success on social media. So you don't want to make me cry at night and then, on top of it, if you're a new viewer um. I i can't tell you that i can teach you much about finance but you're, going to learn a lot about avian based shirts on this channel.

So maybe that's something that you're into agree with you. We must use our leverage with policymakers. I made two petitions one for congress. One for amc amc has a fiduciary obligation to protect value of the company in congress to act.

Uh links in normal chat uh. I don't know if the links are coming across in the normal chat. I don't know, i know the mods can post it um. I don't know, amc has a fiduciary responsibility obligation.

I mean. I definitely think that amc could be doing more. That's my own personal opinion and my reasoning, for it is just seeing what the ceos of ryan cohen of gamestop of he's calling out the shorts. We see elon musk like actively bashing shorts.

We see the ceo of a tyrion calling them out doing some sort of like in-depth uh financial forensic look into his company, saying hey, i have proof of illegal illicit shorts. I don't know why amc doesn't do that, but i i've never really spoken with them. I haven't had the opportunity to have that type of relationship, but i think those questions are fair to ask and i think, as investors as the people who kept amc alive and got it to this point uh. I think we deserve some of those answers shout out.

Patrick um, i appreciate you joining up becoming a member matt. Have you blown your futures account just to make the hundred dollars the other day? Uh i didn't blow it, but it lost money for sure i cut it like near the end of the day. So right now the futures account is short or no it's flat um. I wish i went short and now today what i'm looking for is.

I wanted some sort of like morning bounce. I thought there was going to be like a quick morning like pump to the upside, and i wanted to short that pump, but i just haven't seen it yet. So i'm trying to be patient and wait. Those first like 15 minutes - and i definitely need to do some training to get some of those losses back.

So what i've learned is that chair is very good at trading, but the coin flip sucks at trading uh, that's 100. What i've learned today - or i guess we technically all learned that on friday and we're going to be talking about the eight hollywood who a-listers, who are billionaires but we'll do that later. I just thought it was interesting man. They are not getting uh.

Any relief amc. Actually briefly went green there for a second, maybe one of the green beacons, potentially a green beacon of the day twitter waking up folks, don't sleep on twitter. Let's ask chair again: i should i need to make some of that money back. What's the deal with varu uh, i'm still betting against varu how's it doing.

Let me just quickly check in on it. I still have my puts. I own puts against virus it's up. 3.8.

I don't personally think it'll last long, but who knows maybe i'm right. Maybe i'm wrong amc. Looking good gme, not far behind down by 80 cents might be going. Green nvidia just went green tesla, probably not gon na go green actually below a thousand.

Let's look at nvidia lots and lots of stuff going on a tyrion is green. All right, nvidia's green, a tyrion up 1.6, a tyrion needs to get above 530.. If, if it's below 530, that is a not a good scenario, not a good scenario. If a tyrion cannot recapture five dollars and 30 cents matt what happens to people's shares, if a company is made private uh, it depends on the particular deal, but most likely you're, just gon na get cashed out at whatever the cost is.

So if the numbers we're seeing are the accurate numbers, you'll get cash out at 54.20? If that's, what the deal is accepted at haven't been able to really watch in a few months, but hope things are well trying to get into options. Dtra 902: hey you've come to the right place. Let me know if you have any questions, i'm more than happy to at least share what i know about it: uh how's, brqs, brqs uh, looking a bit negative this morning down three percent. This is one that definitely had some excitement last week, but be careful about volume exhaustion.

If this were to break below 29 cents and hold below like if it closes below 29. I think brqs might be over then so i'd be watching that 29 level, the low from friday. How are the cues doing? Let me clean this up very quickly: uh the qs tech getting a bit of a bounce crxt. This is one that it hit almost four dollars last week.

This was an exciting one, high short interest. Oh wait! This one's getting slaughtered too! Oh huge gap down yeah this one when it started to bend back over like a ball like on thursday and friday. That was a red flag scenario. I think this one's done uh to the upside and, honestly, even if you bet against it, i would personally be collecting my gains on it right now.

Is it capable of coming back up 100? I'm not gon na say no way. Is it not it's just this, it looks like it's over. It looks like it's over amc, looking good jimmy somehow in a crazy change of events. Netflix netflix going green twitter, fighting it out, gme, very close to going green uh on amc.

We just recaptured an important level, this 1660 to 1670 level very, very important. The next thing i would be watching is 1820. 18, 20. good morning.

Don't think it's time to give chair a promotion he's been a great asset for over a year. Now, um i mean i don't know if you can get promoted to above ceo uh, i'm not the most business savvy guy. But if anything i ask chair for a promotion and i don't, can you go higher than ceo president he's like executive president, ceo um, i don't know if you could go higher than that i'll ask unless there's any business owners in here that can tell me can Tell me what the deal is all right, so amc, one of the few green ones on the day, twitter doing its thing, the spy all right. Let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see i matthew coors via the futures market, embedding against the s p.

500. I took a small position, it's a starter position. Uh, like i said i was looking for that morning pump and i just wanted to see some weakness and i wanted to go against it. If it's up to me, i would actually like to hold this for a couple days.

If there's something dramatic, obviously, today, whether to the upside i'd have to cut my losses to the downside, i would just lock in my gains, but the market, i'm just considering what the fed is or isn't doing, uh. I kind of wish this pump was a little bit more. I wanted it to be a little bit more dramatic last week if you took the credit spread play that easily made money that was printing money last week. So, congratulations to all of you who took that call credit spread play um, hey your sangria over the weekend was on me uh right now.

I will be posting more. I'm kind of waiting for 10 30 for things to like calm down and then on locals i'll post some of those trades. We can also quickly check in to see what's going on today, whoa the options market very active apple, put someone betting, 212 thousand dollars against apple's earnings spy, put put caterpillar, put spy, put, put put lots of it's a wall of puts 25 days out 25 days Out 53 days out 11 days out, iwm put put q, put tesla q and carvana and spy put a tesla call a spy call. Upst call iwm put put put one of them at decent money.

Two mill cues put put um, as you can see right here. The premium is being dominated by the bears. Today we have some interesting ones coming through like a twitter call, but all the serious monies and puts i was going to say another call, but it's uv xy, which is basically a put against the spy anyway um there. I get it we're only 11 minutes in and a lot of things can change.

Oh some. Some calls coming in right there on the queues on the tech sector uh, but still thus far being dominated by the bears. Did you hear anything about the projectors for amc? I just saw the tweet from adam aaron saying that they're looking to integrate that improve it uh, i don't think that's something that's going to move like the top or the bottom line that much it's just really making it a better experience. So i think it's you can look at it a couple ways um, i think, there's something to be said about improving a lot of things.

One percent of just like a baby improvement here, a baby improvement there and then in the aggregate, you're much better off or you could look for major things of. I think that's two very fair ways to look at business in general and i think with that one. The way i would look at the theaters is it's one of those little improvements, but if you have a lot of little improvements in the aggregate, that could be a massive improvement overall, so that alone, i i think it's cool, but i don't think it's something. That's going to be really have, like alone, a huge impact on the stock.

Oh, what i didn't want to ask you, though, is i heard really really good things about the newest nicholas cage movie uh, and i wanted to know if any of you saw it, that massive talent, the unbearable weight of massive talent with nicholas cage playing nicolas cage. I didn't see it yet. I want to, and some of the reviews i read about it were that it was like awesome. Elon changed the title to techno king spy, phil gap upside uh.

Did it gap, i don't think the oh, it does have a gap side or an upside gap. Good call uh something very fair to pay attention to 425 44. uh. My first target is just below 421 on the downside right here.

Uh 4. 20. 76 is my first downside target on the spy and if we break this 934 low of whatever that is uh 421 82. I think there's a chance that we could be seeing it today.

Amc uh still holding green, but coming down a little bit. Hopefully, it's just rebasing off this key level. Around 1660 1670 small cap sector, coming back over the tech sector, also kind of being back over the spy, looks like it's about to make a new intraday low twitter, thus far just going flat. It looks like people are honestly just waiting for the news uh, like i said, i'm making money back from friday when the freaking thing that flipping coin told me to go long when it should have gone short.

I went short right about here. Uh, i chose to execute it through the futures market. There's just no pattern day trading, you get better leverage, i'm pretty confident about this trade. That's where i got in against the s: p, 500, around 9, 39, and once again my first target is going to be right about here.

4. 20. 70., uh first target. My second target, if we get capitulation, is 4 15..

I'm seeing a lot of things simultaneously. Start to sell off how is crude oil doing crude oil coming oh bouncing on the day, but in the overnight session had quite a bit of a drop oil trading at 97. speaking of oil and the fact that oil has now come down from 110 120. 130.

Currently, trading sub 100 - don't forget that i am very excited about if you guys are looking for a little bit of maybe something to be bullish on south west ticker symbol l-u-v on thursday, before the market opens, i am bullish on southwest matt. Why are you bullish on southwest? That's a great question: well, delta beat united beat american beat southwest, is the biggest of the major airline plays, so i don't see why they wouldn't be, and on top of that, one of their biggest costs is the increase in oil, and now oil is coming down. So i am definitely bullish on southwest once again reports before earnings uh its earnings report before the market opens on thursday. Today coca-cola came out, beat top and bottom line.

Activision blizzard just has not really been moving. Much there's not too many. I think of major interest before the market closes or after the market closes today before the market opens. Tomorrow we have ups ge and pepsi pepsi, i think, is gon na beat because coca-cola beat they are very, very similar place after the market closes on tuesday.

That's when things get spicy microsoft, google, visa gm chipotle, then, on wednesday, boeing, spotify, t-mobile, facebook, paypal, ford, qualcomm, pinterest and then on thursday, twitter, caterpillar southwest mastercard. We have even mcdonald's merck and then we get the biggest one of them all. On thursday we have after the market closes apple and amazon. Then you have roku intel robinhood, i'm curious what they're going to say about crypto and then on friday we have some energy reports, exxon and chevron and phillips 66.

feel free to check this account out earnings. Whispers feel free to screenshot this if you want. This is going to be a busy busy week leading into another busy earnings reports next week and then also don't forget that we on wednesday are going to get the results from the fed uh wednesday may 4th uh. Thus far, the spy trade playing out amc had a nice push, unfortunately not holding 1650, let's see if it could fight back there, twitter coming down a little bit, but still one of the few green things on the day.

Man, oh man, netflix. Turning abruptly turning netflix. I mean at this point it looks like it's just going to be nose diving to 200.. If it sells, i pay for my lunch all right hit me up with your questions.

If you have anything on your mind, talk about the iv crush on twitter calls today. Well, okay, so just in general iv crushes when volatility is too high. You don't sustain volatility uh this when volatility is really high, it's not an ideal time to buy calls or puts, because the concept is that volatility will calm down and whether you have a call or a put. If volatility calms down.

That means that your premium is less valuable, so the ideal time to get calls and puts is when volatility is low and you're thinking it's about to ramp back up, but on the other side, if it's very high, if you're just shooting up that's not necessarily the Best time because yeah it could continue, but what, if you just top ticked it, and even if you get the direction right, volatility could come down, thus really messing up your call and or put play volatility well, you got to pay attention to it, but this phenomenon That we're talking about iv crush it's incredibly important. It's absurdly important. You have to pay attention to it. It is not good to be buying a call or put when volatility is sky high.

That is the time to be selling premium, and i mean you could generically apply it to twitter intraday. Twitter's volatility right now is not that high over the past week. I would say that is high, but volatility is actually probably at this moment in time higher in the s p: 500.. Uh uh.

Why do some stocks not have a price to earnings ratio? It could just be your data provider. You might be, if you're, on something free like yahoo. They might not just be sourcing all the data you need or who knows, maybe it's a pre-earnings company. It depends on what you're looking at uh.

One week ago i got a twitter calls at 38 expire in june, but i'm down, can you explain why iv crush remember uh when it comes to pricing an option, it's the price of the underlying asset, it's the time until expiration and then also it is your Volatility, so in the scenario with twitter, you got it last week your expiration is in june, so you didn't get hit that much by theta decay. Obviously, it's gone in your favor because it's up right now, your biggest thing is the iv crush volatility. You most likely got into the position at a higher volatility environment than now so you're getting crushed by volatility. That's why it's called iv crush.

Why are precious metals down? What is gold at? Wasn't it just above 1900. I believe i saw this morning yeah just below 1900. uh we're seeing just i guess people. This is the really weird times, and this is really a good explanation of why things are just so crazy in the market.

Right now remember: gold thought to be a hedge, a safe haven, a risk off investment gold's coming down, which tells you just on a relative basis. There's less people investing in it, but then yet we're also seeing people who are scared about the overall market, and i know that because over the past two days the overall market has been getting its face, kicked in so there's just this is the insanity right now. That's what i was saying of, and i don't think this is going to slow down whatsoever for two weeks - uh this full week and really at least half of next trading week, but probably the full thing. I think volatility is going to be doing nothing but increasing nothing but increasing uh.

Do you see happening in netflix long term? Will it rebounce, i think netflix will have some sort of bounce, but unless it develops a whole new business pillar, i don't think it will. Ever see its market cap high again that 680 700 value that we saw in november of 2021. I think they've made some poor decisions, pandering to the wrong audience on netflix, but more important than that. I think that they have too much competition now and i think people are starting to decide that they, like the competition better than they like netflix hulu, amazon, prime hbo, showtime peacock.

The list goes on and on and on of their new competition and, like i said when you're pairing, that with making content that a lot of people, it might have seemed socially appropriate at one point to the very loud minority. But i think a lot of the average person you watch netflix to unwind netflix is it's an entertainment service? No, i don't think anyone is tuning into netflix to be reminded. You get home from your work day, your normal life, all of a sudden, you're, cooking, you're eating dinner and then just to have policy and political ideas and opinions thrown in your face. I don't think people like that um to some of you in here, who are very, i guess, interwoven in the world of policy and sociology and what's right and what's wrong, you might like it, but i just i have a sneaky suspicion that the average person they Want to work their job, they want to come home, they want to hang out, they want to relax and they want to unwind, and they just want to watch silly things that make them laugh or interesting, documentaries or, if you're, a woman.

Apparently you just love true crime documentaries. The recent stats i've been reading about that are absolutely ridiculous seriously. I don't know what's going on, but the amount of female interest in true crime stuff it's through the roof uh. So whatever it is.

I think that's what people want and now all of a sudden them - i don't know i think they've just made some core missteps. What media doesn't have politics now? Well, that's my point is: i think that the ones that are least tied to politics are actually doing the best, and i think that there's some there's some streaming services that, like like okay, like my movies, are here. I just want to watch the office or parks and rec or whatever it is. I think that's something that people very much want and they don't 24 7 want, like politics, shove down their throat, uh questions, one.

How dare you two? Is cereal soup? Three? Who do you think you are four? What do you want to be when you grow up five? How come when you puke you shat uh, so i'll answer those in order number one? How dare you uh, because i can two - is cereal soup? Yes, i do believe it is, but it doesn't make me feel good to have to admit that three who do you think you are, i think, i'm just um a duck boy trying to figure out his way through this life. Four. What do you want to be when you grow up um? I want to be me when i grow up how come when you pukey chat. I don't know how to answer number five outdoor smile.

I appreciate the two months shout out: does averaging in options position also average your iv and greeks on options. Uh i mean functionally it would, i suppose, that's an interesting question to ask it that way. I mean yeah, really i guess it would expiration it. I let me think about that a little bit.

It might just not be as basic, because sometimes when you're talking about some of the ivs things get like funky uh like if you buy one, i'm gon na go with yes, but let me think about it. I've never thought about it, particularly that way. Obviously it's going to be averaging your premium, but would it average all your iv values inherently? It would almost have to matt what was the most you lost in the market um. I guess like a locked in losing trade.

Probably somewhere between like 20 and 50k and then like missing out on opportunities, i've lost a lot more, but i've locked in like 20 to 50k losses, which it makes you feel some sort of way, that's for sure his soul. What's the most i've lost in the market, his soul, that's probably the most accurate answer, but it's all right i'll make back all of my losses today, i'm betting against the spy. This was my entry. I guess i should make it red just to make it clear that i went against the overall market today, his soul uh, wait.

Why can't i fill my there? We go uh. Obviously this is a level. The intraday low looks like it's attempting to battle it out. There, but i'm feeling pretty good about 4.

20. 70.. I'm actually feeling so good that i don't even know if i'm gon na take. I could probably scale out a little bit depending on your size if you're pyramiding in pyramiding out that would be a place.

I want to scale like this is exactly what i was calling out to you for 2070, maybe locking in some. If you took a big position, you could be like hey i'm done for the day. Like that's, i made my monies. I made my attendees, so you could be watching that, but in terms of the overall real situation right here, the next one i'm watching is just below 416..

So we'll just call it 416 is my next watch. Obviously the level we're watching right here support support support. Then we have another tranche of support, wait. What is this one? This is 420 as well, okay or 421.

I should say the next thing: i'm watching is 416.. If this current level doesn't hold but like i said it could easily bounce off of this and who knows maybe i'll be like dude, i should have just. Why did i not lock him this bet against the market, but um? This is actually.