Hey. What's going on moon gang welcome back to another episode of dumb money money and now that we're about halfway through the best month of the year.'re going to be doing a quick review of what played out in the overall market. And some other things last week in terms of macroeconomic. Updates.

Technical developments. All that good jazz and then we're going to be taking a little bit of a deeper dive into what we should be paying attention to this upcoming week once again announcements. The technical levels. I'll be paying attention to so we'll be covering the overall market then i'll be getting into some individual equities.

Particularly the big earnings that are about to come up then i have a little bit of news related to the favorite meme sucks gme and amc and at the very end of the video. I'll be giving you an update on the 100k trading challenge before we get into all of it if you enjoyed this type of content don't forget to hit the like button join up with the moon gang by hitting the subscribe button and now that we get all that out of the way. Let's get rocking alrighty. When that bell went ding ding ding ding on friday july 15th.

The overall market had a pretty good day the s. P 500 was trading at 38513. Which gained almost two percent similar story with the qs and the russell and we had a pretty good friday. I mean the dollar a little bit of weakness.

There which makes sense seeing strength in the overall market. They're gonna have a little bit of an inverse correlation oil pretty flat. Still sub 100 at 98 to give you some more of the quantitative aspects of it over the past. Week the s p 500 was down 05.

Percent. The q is a little bit more tech heavy pretty much. Neutral slightly slightly. Red and then the small cap sector down 11.

So a little bit of movement but pretty close to zero. If you want to see how things are looking on a daily perspective. We're pretty much in this triangle and i want to be talking about that but first let's go over what really played out last week. And why we saw a little bit of a sell off and then a little bit of a bounce.

There were many things that played out. But the major thing is we got an inflation report. The cpi the consumer price index and it was up the expectations from all those big fancy schmancy banks was eight point eight percent which is already a sky high. Expectation but it came even even hotter 91.

That is crazy that was the major announcement of last week. Yes there were other ones. But this is the one that had like a lot of lot of influence not on only the equities market. But also the crypto market and as soon as we saw it i mean the expectation of the next fed rate hike.

Which is the fomc meeting. The federal open market committee that'll be the final week of. July we'll get the results at 2. Pm.

On wednesday july 27th make sure you mark that down. But the odds of how if it's going to be 75 bips 100. Bips whatever we're gonna get this was going haywire going into the cpi meeting. There was a 90 percent chance of a 75 bips and about a 10 chance of 100 bibs right after it it pretty much inverse.

It was more of 80 percent chance of 100 bips and 20 chance of a 75 dips remember. This is important because the larger. The rate hike. The more hawkish are fed and that's going to put downward pressure on equities and also crypto.

It's a less favorable environment for really business. Growth and then you see crazy things such as the yields. The two and the ten are still inverted you see the dollar ripping to the high heavens. There's a lot of crazy stuff going on after the market kind of consumed these numbers and then later in the week.

We got retail sales. We also got some other important information that had a little bit of a bullish leaning. We actually saw these numbers completely revert back so it's a wild week for what is this next fed rate hike going to be. But if you're watching this in middle of july.

Understand that that information comes out at the end of july. But also not only just the fomc meeting. The other major announcement is actually going to be a huge one where we get the preliminary numbers for q2 gdp. Q1 was officially an economic down draw we were down 16.

If that happens again another negative number. We are officially as they would define it in a recession. I know many of you listening to this might be well i already feel like we're in a recession. And hey.

That's what really matters is more of like the financial pressure on you not really what our government and the fed tells us is going on just to give you a quick reminder of where we're at seasonally. This is information over the past two decades of how do we perform in terms of the overall market per month. July is pretty bullish from the end of june to the end of july is bullish. But since we're about halfway through we're in this period.

Where it's a little bit more neutral. So i just want to point that out to everyone this particular week. It's a little bit choppy not clearly strongly bullish not clearly strongly bearish overall. The month is very bullish.

But this mid region historically past two decades two decades worth of data mid july nothing too crazy going on there but of course. That's just seasonally that doesn't mean. It has to play out that way just because you're in a seasonally bullish or bearish month. There's no rule that has to go that way in fact.

There's other things that very much need to be paid attention to and for what we have this particular week to start off the first half a lot of home related. Things i would definitely say pay attention to that on thursday. You always get the initial jobless claims then we get some pmi numbers on friday. So these are all important no mega ones like the cpi report last week.

So i would pay attention to these. But they're not going to be the biggest movers like we're not going to see the same one that we saw last week. But what could really move the market this upcoming week is we are officially underway with earnings season in fact it started at the end of last week. Where some big banks reported.

It was a mixed bag a little bit more bearish. Some of the banks were green after the results. But a lot of them were saying hey we miss on earnings per share decent revenue. But a lot of eps misses well we're going to continue with it we have banks once again monday morning then we're going to be getting the likes of netflix.

Lockheed. Martin tesla's going to be on wednesday united you're going to get 18t snapchat for verizon capital one twitter twitter could actually be really interesting this time again uh just so you know this is gonna continue we have about two more weeks after this week. So we're just gonna have a deluge of different earnings announcements. So make sure you're paying attention to that and especially these big companies for example microsoft or apple.

If they say something very bullish well that could elevate the entire market. They say something kind of bearish like hey. We're actually about to cut five or ten percent of our workforce and i'm not saying that's going to happen at all. But if we get that type of an announcement from a big big company i mean look at apple over two trillion dollar market cap that could put a big depression in the overall market because it's just used as like a common barometer for the health of the market.

So make sure you're paying attention to that now not necessarily an earnings announcement. But i want to remind you about gme gamestop. When the market closes on monday july 18th. That's going to be the date of record.

The ex dividend date. So everyone who owns it when the market closes on monday july 18th. You will be a part of the three for one stock split via a dividend now the new stock won't show up in your account. Until the market starts trading in the morning of july 22nd.

But for you to be involved in it you have to own it when the market closes on july 18th. Monday july 18th. And just for those of you who are curious very quickly with. Gme the estimated short interest as of market closed on july.

15th is 224. Percent. And just because we're talking about it might as well show. You amc's estimated short interest is just below 18.

Now i know a lot of people paying attention to the whole amc gme saga are very interested in what's going on with citadel vertu dark pools market makers retail wholesalers payment for order flow all that well recently there was an amazing thread just posted by mingzhou. I retweeted it make sure you give it a read. I really feel like you'll be able to learn a thing or two. It is an excellent excellent read now just to go over a little bit of charting stuff.

Here's where we're at with the s p 500. Basically we recently sold off at the start of june. We had a bounce and now we have lower highs higher lows. That is the textbook definition of consolidation.

You kind of have to wait for it to break to the upside maybe a gap up to 40150. Which i think eventually that will happen or it could break to the downside where we have two gap fills one two three seventy nine oh. Five and another to three sixty nine forty. I have no special inkling of how this is gonna play out if anything i to see how all the upcoming earning announcements.

Go are they going to be a little bit more bullish or are they going to be a little bit more bearish. I still wholeheartedly believe we have not seen the low the actual low of 2022. Yet in the overall market just because we saw very serious things. There's an energy crisis.

There's a food crisis. There's an inflation crisis. It goes on and on and on so. Because of that i don't think that we solved it in the realm of mid june.

I still think there's a little bit more pain now i'm not going to sit here and be doom and gloom and say it's going to be awful like i don't think we're all of a sudden going to absolutely plummet and crash. I just think right now people are being over exuberant. Honestly we got some bad reports with the hot cpi and other related things last week not the best earnings with those big banks such as wells fargo morgan. Stanley blackrock it very legitimately could be a little bit of an overall market.

Squeeze the s. P. 500 has a short interest of. 184.

Percent the queues have a short interest of 137. Recently. We saw bitcoin east solana matic. They all had a nice push from july 13th.

Until this very moment. There could be a little bit of a squeeze going on there now obviously i'm not a fortune teller. I'm not a financial advisor. I do believe quote unquote one of these days.

The market is going to kind of get rugged because we still do have these two downside gap bills. It might not be that abrupt it might not that be that brutal. But i don't think the official bottom is in now we could still very much have what's referred to as a bear market squeeze as in even though we're trending down lower highs lower lows you can still get periods. Whether a couple minutes a couple hours a couple days of strong upward movement it happens.

This is something that is studied by a lot of quantitative traders. The numbers are there it happens we're all very well aware of it especially. If you dive hard into the data. You can have nice.

I mean let me show you one recently even though. We were trending down from march 15th. All the way up to march 29th for half the month. The overall market ripped almost 10 percent even though if you hey we're you zoom out we're still going to the downside.

So i just want to remind everyone just because you're in a certain market doesn't mean that every single day hour minute is going to be that particular color candle for me. I'm going to sit a little bit on my hands. Wait to see if we break to the upside down side and then i'll probably play that breakout or breakdown. But that leads me to really a thing that i need to remind everyone about is the 100k trading challenge.

I will be trading against martin shkreli. The pharma bro. I implore you to check my interview out with them i'm sure you're going to learn a thing or two. We're both putting up 50 000.

And here's how the challenge is gonna go in fact let me switch over to this because i think i could explain it a little bit better. I will be trading against martin shkreli. We're each putting up 50k and the goal is to get it to 100k the winner is the first person to turn 50k into 100k and if neither of us can do it there is a two month time cap. So basically whatever happens first someone hits 100k or we get to the two months and then we're just gonna see who has a bigger account value now.

There's a couple cool things going on in the background. And i will keep you up to date with all that as soon as i get those details. But there's gonna actually be a way that you'll be able to stream our accounts all day 24 7. And just see where we're at but in the meantime.

Why that tech is being built out every single day. Both martin and myself will be tweeting out when we open a position close the position and at the end of the day. We will be letting everyone know our current account value just for the sake of transparency and just for the sake of this also in a little bit. This is gonna be exciting.

But we will be announcing the prize for the winner beyond. Bragging rights and also a little bit of the punishment for the loser. I think. This is gonna be really fun.

I will have standalone videos explaining where we're at in the competition and so will martin. But i just wanted to keep everyone up to date because the competition officially starts on monday july 18th. I'm very very excited so i don't know if you're team. Matt t.

Martin. If you want to see us both win or if you want to see us both lose. But i think hopefully we can have a little bit of fun and maybe even better learn a thing or two. I hope you're ready for the market.

Because i think some volatility is on the horizon. Thanks for watching the video. I'll catch in the next one.