Buckle Up! Breaking Down The Week Ahead
The Matt Kohrs Show (Oct. 15th)
Sponsors & Affiliates
⇒ Goonie Newsletter (FREE Premium w/ Code GOONIE): https://bit.ly/LocalsMG
⇒ Streetbeat Robot Trading (FREE Month w/ Code MATT): https://bit.ly/AICopilot
⇒ SpotGamma Options (FREE 2 Weeks w/ Code KOHRS): https://bit.ly/SGKohrs
⇒ Apex Prop Trading (71% Off w/ Code TPBMGLUS): https://bit.ly/ApexKohrs
⇒ Top Charting Software: https://bit.ly/GoonieCharts
⇒ Options Picker: https://bit.ly/Tiblio
Socials
⇒ YouTube (Show Clips): https://www.youtube.com/ @GoonieClips
⇒ Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/MattKohrs
⇒ Twitter: https://twitter.com/matt_kohrs
⇒ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/matt_kohrs
#LiveTrading #Stocks #Options #StockMarket #Crash #StockMarketCrash #Israel #Palestine #Hamas
Please be sure to LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and turn on them NOTIFICATIONS.
Let me know in the comments if there is anything I can improve on moving forward.
Thanks for Watching!
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
The Matt Kohrs Show (Oct. 15th)
Sponsors & Affiliates
⇒ Goonie Newsletter (FREE Premium w/ Code GOONIE): https://bit.ly/LocalsMG
⇒ Streetbeat Robot Trading (FREE Month w/ Code MATT): https://bit.ly/AICopilot
⇒ SpotGamma Options (FREE 2 Weeks w/ Code KOHRS): https://bit.ly/SGKohrs
⇒ Apex Prop Trading (71% Off w/ Code TPBMGLUS): https://bit.ly/ApexKohrs
⇒ Top Charting Software: https://bit.ly/GoonieCharts
⇒ Options Picker: https://bit.ly/Tiblio
Socials
⇒ YouTube (Show Clips): https://www.youtube.com/ @GoonieClips
⇒ Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/MattKohrs
⇒ Twitter: https://twitter.com/matt_kohrs
⇒ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/matt_kohrs
#LiveTrading #Stocks #Options #StockMarket #Crash #StockMarketCrash #Israel #Palestine #Hamas
Please be sure to LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and turn on them NOTIFICATIONS.
Let me know in the comments if there is anything I can improve on moving forward.
Thanks for Watching!
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
Oh my God Stop bro I'm stuck. Can you help me? I will send you to Jesus What are you doing step bro Emotional damage OA OA OA OA happy Sunday Nerds what's going on I Hope your college football teams won yesterday I Hope your professional football teams are winning today if you're watching the Formula 1 race that I think starts in a couple hours I Hope your favorite racer wins and if you don't like it of that stuff, whatever you're doing I Hope it's you're going your way. I Hope you're crushing it I Hope you're having a good one I I Just I Hope everything's going better than you could have expected I Myself: arguably not the best day yesterday. Why did I have not have the best day you ask? Well it's because I decided to apparently make the moronic decision to watch the boxing match the celebrity boxing match.
There was a co- Mainline a hent event between Logan Paul Dylan Danis. That was one fight. Then there was another fight that was KSI and Tommy Fury and I was nothing but let down. Nothing but let down.
Uh, the Logan Paul Dylan Danis fight I I don't understand how you can as Dylan Danis I don't understand how you can talk that much and then throw like less than 10 punches in a six round fight I and then he end end up getting disqualified. He knew he was losing so he started uh doing I guess illegal illicit moves and Maneuvers it was. It was a disgrace I mean obviously the crowd started booing, the internet started dunking on them. You can't be that hardcore of a keyboard Warrior it's just not acceptable.
and then the Tommy Fury KSI fight obviously before I get into this. There are a lot. a lot, a lot of spoiler alerts so be prepared for that. But I actually think KSI got robbed uh I at the end.
like if you guys watch it just like tallying up the points and everything I think KSI was legitimately ahead and then if you account for Tommy Fury's uh Point loss for punching in the back of the head I don't understand how Fury won at all. Um, so that was something. uh. on a positive note: Penn State absolutely demolished a no-name school I Don't understand why colleges do this.
uh at the start or even definitely I don't understand it in the middle of the season. but when you look at college or college Powerhouse teams Powerhouse college teams is probably the proper way to say it. I I'm a little lost of why the first couple games, the first one or two games, and then sometimes in the middle of the Season you have big schools like top 10 schools playing schools that no one's ever heard of. and to me it just seems like a lack of competition it seems.
I I Get it. They use it as a arrest. They use it as a morale boost. But I think as fans and viewers and really even students at these schools give us the good schedules.
Everyone should be playing these top tier schedules, not just randomly interspersing schools that literally no one's heard of like it was I think like 60 plus to nothing I like what are we doing I turned the game off after the first quarter I was like this is a joke. It's a waste of my time to even watch this. Um, but Eagles Playing today got my Eagles garbon my Eagles paraphernalia so hoping that Um this can continue their success. you know it's not having success is my fantasy teams. in one League I'm undefeated and in the other league I've only lost so I kind of wish there was a little bit of a mixture going on but one League undefeated one League have not won a game so I don't know. Really, my only victory of today is I've been really, really focusing on I don't know how many of you we were talking about this a little bit throughout the week. Um, when you're doing any form of diff stance running anything over 5K you very quickly find out if you are running properly or not as in if you have the right mechanical technique because if not, you start to get weird pains. Whether it's your feet, your calves, your hips, your shoulders, your neck, your head.
um, pretty much if you're running over a 5k, you're going to find out quickly if you have the proper running technique and that might sound like an obscure thing to talk about, especially as an adult. Like, what is the proper running technique? you're like yeah, heel, toe, heel to um but if you actually look up any actual Runner or any literature on it, we're supposed to fully be running on our toes. It should go. Tow heel tow heel tow heel like.
you're always kind of like almost kind of rning running like the Grinch from the Grinch you Stole Christmas. You're going to your toes and like almost like pulling the ground forward to you. and if you've never never run that way, it feels absurdly awkward. So over the past couple running JS I've been working on that and my calves are on fire.
They are on fire. They are on fire. I don't know what's going on but I am using like aspects of my Cales that I've never used in my life before. So this morning I think I crushed 4 and a half miles and crushed crushed a pretty good workout.
I was drenched in sweat and then I got all fired up banged out that email. The newsletter should be in everyone's inbox right now. Um, there's a new one. It came out today so check that out.
Check that out. Check that out Ma. local. It's free if you want premium access use the code gooni but the newsletter.
you don't even have to have premium access, but it just fired off like half an hour ago and I'm going to be going over that and some key points. and then we're going to do additional chart breakdowns because I think a bearish wave is going to be happening this week. Um, so we'll see I am positioned for a bearish play out I Have put options on SPX the S&P 500 for tomorrow expiring tomorrow and then I have another trunch of them expiring on Wednesday So basically breaking all my rules, doing some really degenerate things but I kind of wanted to play the weekend risk of if things in the political situation not just in the US but globally worse and I was like, well, what if there's a gap down on Monday I Thought there was better than a 50% chance of it right now. according to Weekend Warrior, there is, uh, accounting for other things like basically, what's going on in the Forex Market what's going on in the crypto Market As of tonight, remember the options Market opens up at 600 p.m. ET As of tonight, the prediction is that it does open down, but obviously from there we have the Australian session. With the Asian session, we have the European session and then finally we're going to be waking up. So a lot can happen between tonight and tomorrow. But I do believe that the market is going to be opening up.
um, a little bit negative, a little bit bearish. and with this, obviously I'm not the biggest fundamental guy. It's just not my forte. It's not something that I'm really interested in.
And in reality, if you're talking about fundamentals, you're talking about long-term investing. And I do believe there's a time and place for it. I Really really do? Um, but if you're talking about any form of day trading or swing trading, or shorter term options, even leaps or below, we're talking about active trading, which is a very different sport. It's a very different piece than long-term investing.
And when you're not talking about long-term investing, I like I I'm just not the person who really cares about fundamentals. Like if we're here actively trading, fundamentals don't matter in the short term, We we all know that that's not a surprise, so it's much more of what's the price action. What are the technicals? What's going on in the options? Market Those are the things that are going to be reflecting themselves in short-term price movement. Obviously, in the long term, you're talking about investing, and you can make a ton of money doing that.
but that's really I Don't think many of us are here for that. Like, if you want my thoughts on long-term investing, buy high quality ETF such as the Spy The Q's or highquality companies such as Microsoft Tesla Nvidia and come back in 20 years. Come back in two to three decades and see if you're up, because you probably will be. Um, but it really doesn't take much to do that.
In fact, that's actually an aspect of financial advising that I get really, really confused about because most financial advisers most of them, as in, more than 50% underperform the S&P 500 in the long term. As in, instead of paying any fee, you would be better off just buying the S&P 500 and forgetting about it and coming back decades later. Um, it is just hedge funds financial advisors. They commonly do not outperform the overall Market in the long term.
Obviously, there's pockets of time certain years where they perform very well. For example, you might have a hedge fund that their whole thesis is always to be short bonds. Well, if they're doing that this year, it's probably going to be the best hedge fund. Um, you might have some arbitrary hedge fund that's really long. precious medals, gold, silver. There's going to be Pockets When they're doing really well, there's going to be Pockets when they're doing absolutely horrible. So sometimes you have hedge funds and financial advisers that pop off. But that's because it's finally their thesis came to like a window when that thesis is the appropriate one.
So it's basically this concept of a broken clock is right twice a day. If you're always screaming the same thing, you're eventually going to be get right, proven right if you're given enough time. If you're always the most bullish person, eventually there's going to be a bullish chapter within the market. If you're always bearish, eventually, there's always is going to be a bearish chapter within the market.
So like, if you're always screaming the exact same thing with no time frame or no magnitude, call out. Well, of course you're eventually going to be right. That's how it works. Um, well there are some unsung anti-heroes who allegedly have models um who apparently are always wrong, which is surprising me.
but I don't want to go down that. if you want more of that. you could see me. uh, dunking on on Twitter But other than that, the real positive news of the day is we got a new moon.
We got a new lucky Moon I looked at it I looked at it stats this thing. This puppy right here has plus 69 luck. The last one only had plus 42.0 luck. so I did upgrade this uh, same astronaut New Moon new luck levels I'm very excited for that to see how this upcoming week uh plays out because I I Honestly think that this guy is going to bring us to the next level? Check this out.
Check this out. Check this out. Check this out. We got a green one.
oh that one doesn't come through the best All right. The camera's not picking up the same I guess shade of green that I'm seeing. what's the red one look like uh oh well. sometimes.
Hang on. Let me get off screen. Is it going to focus on that a bit better? It's trying to figure out what the focus on with me. All right.
So there's there's your red option. The green one really doesn't come through. It looks better in person, but it's being lost on camera. What's the blue one? That one I think is the best looking one cuz it kind of mimics some of these other colors.
we I'm moving too much. What's the white one look like? uh, the white ones are right. this is technically white cuz it's a colored bulb. But I think we might rock it with this and just see how see how it plays out.
So that's pretty much uh, the major. News Major News Major News So U Happy to cover all of that with all of you. Now on that note, I Guess we should probably dive into the reason that you guys are here to talk about. maybe some potential money-making opportunities. Some chart breakdown, some price action discussion. A little bit of a AMA type of a deal. So with that I mean I've somehow successfully burn 10 minutes. Uh, let's get into it.
Global Markets Brace for more volatility Amud Amid AUD A mid Israel conflict unless you've been living under Iraq You damn well know that there's serious serious conflict going on in the midle. East Right now Israel Palestine Egypt's popping off saying some things. Lebanon's popping off saying something. Iran is popping off and saying some things.
Uh, it's no. The conflict is very, very serious. and if anything, judging from the videos and the messages and things I'm seeing over this weekend, it's not trending in. Oh, like we're closer to a resolution, it's trending in the oh wow, things are getting worse.
Direction Us In frantic bid to avert wider Israel war after Iran Warning Us: asks Qatar and China to intercede and limit spillover Regional Allies hope to Nick's involvement in Iran backed Proxies Question to you I don't want to let you know what way I'm leaning. Do you think if you had to guess, do you think that this will progress in a horrific Direction where things boil over or do you think it'll just be contained and x amount of time later things are going to simmer down? It's not going to be that bad like I Is it just the pessimistic voices that are out there and like kind of warmongering? Or do you think like For example, Russia Ukraine A lot of people are like this is going to lead to World War I Obviously has not led to World War I essentially contained to that region. Yeah, on the political level, a lot of people bitching about it one way or the other. Do you think the Israel Palestine is going to be similar contained to that area and on a secondary tertiary level.
A lot of people complain about it or do you think it'll legitimately spill over and like it's going to get worse? Like on a a global scale like Iran gets involved Egypt gets involved us gets involved. um Europe gets involved like something like that. It'll get worse. Yes and soon.
Nope. Doge will win 10 days I have Jpq in my dividend account cam me too. Love it! Uh, we could check out JPI Qqy monthly divy ETF with big payout I don't know anything about Qqqq y so I'll look into it. but I know a lot about JPI and Jpq.
They are very quickly becoming some of my favorite long-term call outs. Um, so okay, uh I'll I'll look at that hold that for a second. Israel latest Egypt says response has exceeded self-defense I Think there's a this is kind of an interesting philosophical question if someone comes up to you in the bar and punches you, what force are you allowed to respond with Can you only punch them back? Can you pulverize them into the side of a bar? Can you take out a gun and shoot them? This is becomes philosophical of yeah I mean Israel's response relative to the attack that they were hit with, they've hit back with more Force But like I'm saying it's becoming philosophical because like if you hit them back with more force, will you stop and attack in the future? like I Think there's a lot of things to consider when you're talking about like okay, like what is the fair response now? obviously I have less emotional I guess deep appeal to the military members who were attacked and now they're getting attacked back and a lot of them are losing their lives. But on both sides when I'm seeing innocent men, women, and children dying, well, they're innocent men, women, and children I don't care what side they're on if they had nothing to do with it I feel for them, their family, and anyone else related. Um, in any sense that a lot of lies are being lost I Mean it's not hard on Twitter to scroll through and realize that there's many infant children, toddlers, teens, young adults who are now losing family members and they wanted nothing to do with this. They were dealt a bad Hand by being born in an area that is Rife with conflict. they don't want anything, if anything, they probably just want to get out of the area and then all of a sudden their life is absolutely torn apart just because of the circumstance in which they are born. Now obviously that's very, very, very different than being within the military and participating in the attack or the defense.
But my heart really just on both sides goes out to the people who want nothing more than just to not be involved with this but just by life circumstance. They were born into an area that there is a lot of conflict. Um so I feel for that but Egypt right now getting testy? Uh, right here. wider worn.
Middle East could tip the world economy into recession. The Hamas attack and Israel's response are taking a heavy human toll. A global economic downturn may follow now. I actually find that hard to believe now.
I Want to scroll? Zoom in on this, enhance, enhance, enhance. So right here. World War I begins. Yes there was a brutal drop, but then guess what? the market popped.
Uh World War II begins at first right when the US entered little bit of a drop, then it really popped if you look at the Korean War as soon as it began. little drop. Big Pop if you look at what's going on in the Viet Viam War surprise surprise like we see these drops and Pops this concept that a breakout in conflict is quote unquote bad for the stock market and I understand that the stock market and the economy are two very different things. but just talking about stocks here not necessarily true.
Um. and also it depends on your time frame. Are you looking at the next day? the next week? the next month, the next year? So depending on your time frame, but there are certain Subs slices of time frames related to the announcement of conflict and especially us getting involved in said conflict that depending on the time frame you're looking at, there's actually some bullish. Trend So I Just want to put that out there that uh, I know it's counterintuitive that like we think, okay, conflict, loss of life, height, intentions Market Probably gets destroyed. Not really the case. Um, not really the case at all. In fact, we know certain Subs sectors this time around, looking at oil and looking at defense contractors end up doing really well. well.
So if you look at Defense Contractors Lockie Martin General Dynamics Rathon Uh, the list goes north of Grumman The list goes on and on and on. They're performing well if you look at oil companies. Exxon Well, there was just an announcement with Exxon and who they might be acquiring might not being acquiring so. But anyway, generically looking at oil.
because obviously if demand stays the same or increases because of conflict and the desire to have oil to manufacture, blah blah blah, there's obviously a lot of Downstream products that are going to require the commodity for energy. So energy sector booms. Manufacturing can boom, Defense can boom. There are certain sectors, not just companies, but overall sectors that perform very, very very well.
So this concept of just like calling out for doomsday because of a conflict I Just want to show you some counter evidence to now obviously. Could Happen We're always in the game of nothing's guaranteed and there's certain odds of this happening. Certain odds of that happen happening. Um, but I Just want to let you know more often than not, the market can actually get a pop on this, so just want to throw that out there.
uh, without conflict. I Also want to remind you the seasonality of the S&P 500 by the time you're a third or halfway through. October. The seasonality definitely favors the Bulls and this is where we are, in fact, the Bulls kind of reain supreme up until about Thanksgiving.
So that's where the S&P 500 and then for the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ does even better. Uh, it. It doesn't have as much of a drop, but still very, very bullish from this period to essentially halfway through January a third of the way through January. So I just want to bring that to your attention now.
obviously. Sign up. Sign up. Sign up.
Sign up Mqu Locals.com It is Free I Am not asking for money for you. This is a free newsletter that I just put together to put a lot of important information in one place just so you don't have to I guess like, go on a journey to find El Dorado on the internet to get all this information so just consolidating it. I Give you my personal breakdown of what happened the previous week and what I'm looking towards uh for the upcoming week. all the major macroeconomic events so for example, nothing on Monday retail sales is the first major thing on Tuesday We are officially at the start of earning season Friday We got a lot of big Banks. Most of them ended up beating all except for PNC, but that's small relative to something like JP Morgan So on Tuesday we're going to hear from Bank of America The fact that City Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Albeat tells me that most likely Bank of America will beat United They're coming up after the market closes on Tuesday Delta beat. So I'm assuming that United will also be. Technically it was a mixed reaction, but the market responded well. so I'm looking for that in United but my favorite ones of the week are by far after the market closes on Wednesday We have both Tesla and Netflix so Tesla Netflix paying attention to that.
This time around, I'm going to be paying a little bit more attention to some credit card companies to kind of get a better understanding of if they're giving us any insight to the strength of the consumer currently. Um, so right here. all the earnings, then the seasonality for each individual day Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Obviously all for the S&P 500 and how this day is played out historically. Uh, an update on the option strategy this last week since we started to record it this last week was actually the worst performance on the option strategy.
I'm playing around with a couple things I think I found some aspects that could be improved to kind of up it a bit more. Uh, but just want to be transparent. Obviously, they're not all going to be winners. it's more of in the long term.
Is this a net winning strategy? and thus far I'm still confident in it and this is what we're going to get to Now is basically the charts of Interest so that's what I want to talk about and then we could turn it over to all of you. So first of all, this is the Spy the ETF tracking the S&P 500 I Am of the opinion that even though seasonally this period favors the Bulls, that's obviously not going to be a guarant guarantee. In fact, in terms of seasonality, if you get something above 65, 70% accuracy I mean that's actually very notable. Generally, we're trying to see if we can get improvements above on the odds of like flipping of coins.
So yes, seasonally October does favor the Bulls. It's also fair to say that when we have major Market meltdowns commonly, they also happen in October. So just another thing to consider. But anyway, this right here is just an EMA Cloud I Mean we have the 8, the 13 I think I wrote these all down.
What are all these numbers? It's the8 the 13 I Want to say the 21, the 34 and the 48. Uh, but you could double check me on all that. But basically this is just a colorized EMA Cloud so you can see all the different EMAs and what I'm seeing is Oh okay. it was selling off then had a little bit of a reversion created.
this trend line did a little bit of sideways consolidation and then right here Friday The 15th of September was the day that I think we all should have been like uhoh, things are going down It closed below the 48 EMA couldn't fight its way back up and absolutely vomited it vomited so hard it broke below this trend line that's been established all the way back since last. actually yeah, last year a year ago now Thursday October 13th broke below. that ended up being on the first attempt of fake out. Breakdown: rallied. look at this, rallied right through everything, ran into a serious wall at the 4850. EMA Tried, tried, tried, tried, failed this close was below the not the low but below the opening SL close of Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday To me this is a classic. Just oh okay. we tried to Trend up, didn't happen trying to Trend down.
So now the golden question is is like okay, if we're clearly trending down Thursday red Friday Red Already the start of of a trend, the golden question is how far is this trend going to go and honestly your guess is as good as mine. but I can at least give you the levels I'm watching. So obviously to the upside if it recovers above 433 Yeah, okay, maybe a retest of 436 437. That's if my thesis is wrong.
I I'm still just going to play the price action I'm not married to being a bull or married to being a bear. Now obviously, we close just below the 8 and the 13 EMA So basically on this time frame and on a lot of major time frames, the 4 Hour, the 2 hour, the 1 hour, and the 30 minute things are looking bearish, we're below the EMA Cloud Obviously, price action is below the moving averages telling you we are trending to the downside. So I see this close below it. but we did close just above the low on Thursday Obviously would have been more bearish if we Clos below this low.
we didn't but we're basically just at this level. So with that being said, I mean I don't think this is a big brain act call out I'm looking at this trend line I Know, historically we've reacted to this trend line many times before. so this is my first initial. Target for Monday Tuesday Nothing that crazy.
but I'm looking at 42850 now. Obviously, if that doesn't hold, if there's like a little bit of a liquidity sweep, I'll be watching about 427 and then from there I'm coming down to this 423 level a previous Gap Fill that support support support support. So this is what I'm going to be watching. Obviously, this is all explain.
You could either rewatch this or for people who are a little bit more Visual and just want to read it or have a place. Yes I broke the all down in the newsletter for you. but right now I would argue this rejection is a serious rejection and I'm looking to see how the market reacts to some of these key support levels. now.
obviously if it slashes through it yeah, I'm just going to keep holding, holding holding. But if I see buyers stepping in especially like in the options Market if people are just starting to heavily YOLO into CL yeah, maybe we just bounce right back up of it and give it another test of these top EMA levels. So that's what I'm looking at in the overall Market a little bit counter Trend to the season ity. Now on the flip side, the Spy was unable to break this line. But if you look at the tech dominant sector well on Monday of this last week, it got above closed above. This to me is a strong Trend reversal now on any time frame if you choose to take this. if you're breaking above the 48 to 50. EMA when you were trending down down down, you break above you close above.
You could buy at the breakout of that high of whatever the breakout bar was the next time you break that high. So buy here. Your risk is down here now. Obviously, depending on how you wanted to manage this, you could have made good money, especially if you were riding it up to this evident trend line that the Q's undershot.
Now obviously the cues in terms of look going the same way as the Spy had a good start to the week, could not hold. Uh, this one closed right in the EMA. So the Q's the tech sector has a big decision. Is it going to bounce out of this major level of support and re vert back up to 367 368? Totally possible.
But if not, I'm basically looking for a sell off to 362. 362 would be my next major downside Target if the Q's cannot hold 364. so I'm just talking about price targets for this upcoming week. the bull case.
the bare case. Obviously the tech sector a bit stronger, but it's at a key decision level. This might be a massive fake out to the upside, trapping some bulls and then if it dumps it on them. uh, there's some other things I paid attention to.
hang on. Let me switch this up. I think I have it marked out over here a little bit better I Want to go into some individual equities that I noticed something Apple clearly rejected One Touch Two touch, three touch trending up up up up up green, green, green green Green Galore runs right in the trend line. Smacked.
Obviously, if you want, you could bet against this. your risk would be right here. I Don't know if you're going to be right or wrong, but it's all what is your risk relative to your reward. If you're in at 178 and you're betting against it and your risk is 182, you're risking four bucks with a potential downside to 170 171.
Your reward is better than your risk and then you just want to work on improving your accuracy as much as you can. So that's what's going on with Apple. A clear trend line rejection after getting the Gap fill to 18147 which we saw from here, which is once again showing you the importance of playing Gap fields to the upside to the downside. Markets love to test untested areas of supply and demand, so that's what's going on with Apple.
Microsoft tried to break out pushed above it. Now coming back to the trend line: if it fails under this, if it gets below I don't know. 325 324 I Would say this is a failed breakout. A failed breakout is inherently bearish. So right now Microsoft a company I Very much like in the long term. In the short term, it's at a decision point. Is this a real breakout? and you would know that if it starts to push 332 333 Okay, great. next.
Target is 341 after that I'd be watching 352. After that I'd be watching 367. But if this fails, the trend line tries to break out. And if there's not not enough Gusto not enough oomph.
then it starts to break down. uh-oh okay. reversion time to 322. pass that 316 pass at about 310.
so that's what's going on with Microsoft Tesla We're waiting. we're this is a bullish pendant. lower highs, higher lows. After creating a nice bull flag, lower highs, higher lows is just consolidating sideways.
The next test in my book is 245. If it bounces off of that, okay, looking back up at 265. If it breaks down below it, maybe 242, then the real test would come at 234. cuzz.
If it doesn't hold 234, that opens up the test all the way down here for 21758, which is a downside. Gap fill. Now, this past week, it did get the upside gapff to 26246 marked out right here, but it's still literally just consolidating. We have to wait.
We have to wait. Watch for this pennant to either break out or break down. Could create a very nice Trend similar to Microsoft Nvidia Got the breakout but the market didn't conclude in the most bullish of manners. In fact, it was definied L bear.
So it's decision time Nvidia Up Up Up Up gets the breakout then smacked right down to the trend line decision time. It's either going to bounce off of this recapture 470 and keep pushing or if it reverts, watch 440 cuz after that it might be opening up the door all the way down to 410. Next up is Netflix This is one that yeah uh, medium to long term I Can see how Netflix would be successful, but in the short term it's been bearish. Went all the way down to this Gap fill at 384 is couldn't hold, tried to push above, couldn't hold triy to push above, really couldn't hold and now it seems to be me.
To me it looks like it's just vomiting down to 341. Uh, 38 so that is clearly my target right here on. Netflix is this downside? Gap F 34138 in terms of Meta Meta relative to the tech sector has been holding up way better than many, many, many other things. So right now I'm watching meta I had this trend line breakout.
beautiful hold above it started to push, kept going, fake out liquidity sweep. To the upside, we had this previous High pushes above it kind of traps these people who are attempting to buy the breakout immediately get smashed. So I'll be watching this Shelf at 310 and then maybe down here at 300. Key technical level key psychological level Various things to pay attention to, but the tech sector, it's questionable. Very, very questionable of what's going on. Right now. The tech sector on a relative basis has been stronger, but obviously it is worthwhile to note what's going on with financials recently. as of Friday, a lot of big Financial companies reported they did well, so if this proves to be strong, things would be looking good for the Spy but it seems like it kind of Pumped up and kind of sideways consolidating.
Now if you look at energy. It was recently pumping as oil pump from 67 up to 94 and some change, then got hit and then started to bounce back up because of just what we're seeing. uh in not only the Middle East but some recent continuation in the sanctions with Russia and their oil. So oil was taking a hit, found a base, started to push.
Wouldn't be surprised if oil continues to the upside. Now with that being said, important to pay attention to. but what I'm really really interested in is things such as the dollar. The dollar.
no matter how you slice it, This trend line clearly broke out above it. The Dollar's just been ripping ever since. July The dollar has been taking off recently, took a bit of a hit and right here this is that inverse nature that we always talk about. The market is going up up up as the dollar is going down down down.
The last two days of last week, Thursday and Friday the market took a hit. Guess what the dollar did? The dollar popped. Another thing to pay attention to are yields. Uh, I've been paying attention to the 10year yield.
the 20- year y really just all yields. If yields continue to show strength, that means bonds are continuing to show weakness. And based on the current setup of monetary policy, that would lead me to believe that the market keeps going down. So if I see strength in yields and the dollar I'm looking for the market to go down.
And obviously, if we're seeing strength in the yields, we're inherently seeing seeing weakness in bonds themselves. So bonds have been vomiting and the question is is this low or is it just popping up a little bit to get slaughtered again? So paying attention a lot to the dollar and yields to kind of get a better prediction of what's going on with the overall market and then also looking at the relative performance of the overall Market to the cues. But to sum all of this up: I Do want to show you one more thing right here. Let me just bring this up.
Hang on. I Think I had it. Let me save this uh, daily. I Nope, that's the not the right chart I Have too many charts on this.
The one thing I really wanted to bring to your attention was the volume profile. Here we go. Let's go back to. let's get the volume profile for 2023.
Let me just make it so it's a little bit more. Okay, so this is just showing you the volume traded at these relative levels. Obviously, when it spikes out, that means that a lot of volume was traded there. If you're above it, it can act as support. If you're below it, it can act as resistance right here. What I want to bring to your attention is there is a essentially a big vacuum. a big void around 421 to 424. This region, which is basically this low, not much volume traded here at all can definitely be acting as a magnet.
There's just not much trading of hands there, so it's easy for the prices to go there and not necessarily react. In reality, the next big reaction level is all the way down here around 412. 4 like I mean look how much volume is sh there. We dance around it a lot here in February we dance I mean from April to miday, that's the only level we're trading at.
That's why there's so much volume here. so this is going to be a big level of support. So just in case things get crazy this week cuz I could see us easy easily slicing through 420 cuz there's just not much volume traded there. So if this is knocked and this is a big Capital if but if this trend line doesn't hold, if 420 doesn't hold I see a very easy trip all the way down to 410 to 412.
Somewhere in this region, it's just a big volume level, a big big volume level. And look, surprise surprise, are you surprised where we got rejected? Another big volume level We traded all the way up into it. Boom! We ran not only into price action and Technical resistance, but just a volume shelf above ran right into it, got smacked, and I would see actually a relatively easy trip through 420 on the next test. So I just want to pull like bring that to your attention.
If we look at a similar thing going on with the Q's we're at a big volume right now. Maybe part of the reason of why the Q's are holding a bit a bit better, but right here, what is this? level 364? The longer the Q's remain below 364, that's actually setting up a shot all the way down here to 315. There's no volume trade in these levels. I Cannot articulate enough how easily it would be able to slice through this 350 to 325 region a $25 range.
Just cuz not, it just ripped up through there. Not much going on whatsoever, but once again, that really comes into play. It gets bad below 360, but I mean the warning shots come below 351. so I just want to throw that out there.
What's going on with the Spy What's going on with the Cu's Uh, a thing that I don't talk about too too much during the daily streams, but I figure the weekend streams. This is the perfect opportunity to really talk about what we're seeing. Um, not only in the technicals in the price section, but like I said, the volume profile as well. So that's pretty much what I have with you.
Sign up for this Mc. Locals.com It is Free Mc. Locals.com It's in the description of the video you can click on the link and obviously if you care about any of these charts or anything like that that's currently pinned to the to a chat I believe that training view is the best charting software and I think that everyone should be on it. In fact, I think I'm going to start sharing my chart. So the things that we go over and the things that I see uh I think I'm just going to there is like kind of a social media aspect to trading View: I think I'm just going to start putting them up from free so you guys can see like my updates to it on a daily basis. Um, so just definitely something I'm considering. Now with all that being said, Uh, questions, Comments Concerns anything of that nature? Questions, comments, concerns. Good afternoon, Everyone watching Live From! Rio De Janeiro Brazil That's awesome I Thought I think I Just read this morning that there was, um, a large gathering in support of Israel in Brazil Like something massive like a thousands of people.
Thousands and thousands of people. So shout out to my Brazilian viewers I Feel like most of my viewers are here in the US but uh, it's always fun to see some of the international viewers. I Got my Voyager check Friday insta deposited sweet Matt Want to say thank you I made 140% on GLD with things you taught us over the years. brought my account from 200 bucks to 1K from January Nice man.
Massive Congrats! Not an easy task watching from Hell Well I hope you have on some suncreen what you drinking? something called slate slate? It is 10 100 calories. uh but 20 g of protein. So I think it's like a mini meal replacement kind of but low carbs. there's 15 grams but one gram of sugar higher in protein I don't know I'm just doing it to satiate my body a little bit after my run this morning.
Never heard of it me either I just saw it randomly uh at the grocery store I was like okay, 20 grams of protein, 100 calories, zero added sugar I was like I could I could work with that 100 calories isn't a meal replacement, it's a protein drink. Yeah, totally that thing. um that thing. Do you think crude oil will reach hundreds by the end of the year? I do.
But to be fair, I Also thought that last year I thought we wouldn't continue to sell off I thought there would be a bigger rally and that was a prediction that the Biden Administration would have to refill the Strategic petroleum reserve the Spr which they just have not done so I still believe it I I Still, especially with the spike of the conflict right now I think the US is very much like oh, what do we do with our oil so I think just we have a natural buyer in the US government. Can't wait to check out the Discord Man want to get back into the trading more? We're going to be doing it the beta version of the new Discord Like the like, obviously people are going to be trading, there's going to be voice channels and there's going to be like kind of just lounges to hang out. Um, but really, what I'm going to do to set it apart is pipe in a lot of data signals into different channels that you could just get basically Alert on your phone if you're in the Discord Um, there will be a free version of it, but obviously there's also going to be a premium version to it too. um I I Was thinking about it like At First, I know a lot of people do like $50 a month, $100 a month $250 a month I Just think that deters too many people. so I don't want to price it that high cuz I think there's a lot of people who I want to be involved that I just think that's going to be cost prohibitive so it's definitely going to be cheaper than that. um I I don't know I've been asking a lot of people and they're like dude, it has to be more because like the data is expensive, it's not cheap. but I think um I'm more of the mindset of the more the marrier so I want to price it accordingly where like more people can join and whatever if there's a price difference, I'll make up for it I it doesn't really bother me the most. Uh, did you make money on puts on Friday I did and then I rolled.
uh, some of the profits actually more than some of the profits into puts for Monday and Wednesday So I have puts expiring this Monday this Wednesday on the overall Market uh Matt is wearing the Mr Rogers thingy. Yeah, it's that time of the year. It's my favorite time of the year. um uh, 50 sounds reasonable for your knowledge and data thing.
Maybe if there's a lot of people that sign up, I'll increase the prices, but it's definitely not starting there. I'm thinking more of um, that's what I'm I'm being told to charge it at 50. actually some people are charge it at 100 but I don't know man. I just I think a lot of people get turned off by that and I think I'm coming in cheaper I think I'm coming in cheaper.
Okay, well I'm not seeing too many uh, additional questions. Come in so that's what I have for you. We'll be streaming tomorrow morning 9:00 a.m. bright and early.
I'm about to go watch the birds kick some ass so that's what I have for you. Appreciate all the Good Vibes thank you thank you thank you On your way out, don't forget to smash the like button. But most importantly, sign up for the newsletter and then sign up for the uh charting software pinned to the top of chat. That's what I have for you now.
Peace out, have a good one.
About the running thing generally you will start to shift from heel striking to running on the balls of your feet as you run faster for most people this happens automatically. In my opinion problems from running happens more because of bad footwear and also weighing too much at least at first (I learned that the hard way).
what do you define as world war? if all of nato, other eurpoean countries, japan, and ukraine vs russisa, iran, china, south america, africa, some asian nations, then we have ww3. they just have not declared it
No way KSI won. He was pretty much holding the him the whole fight and scared to give him any distance the whole fight.