Thank you thank you thank you thank you Foreign. Good morning, good morning, good morning. Welcome back to the Mad Core's live show. It is Tuesday June 13th or as it's going to go down in the history books another inflation day and this one's particularly wild because we're almost a year away.

Technically, we're now 11 readings away from the highest inflation reading we've gotten in this whole cycle. Uh, that was the 9.1 was in June of last year, so obviously we got in in July So we're getting close to that time frame. We start the Fomc meeting today. obviously it concludes tomorrow and also tomorrow.

Not only do we get the results of the Fomc meeting, but we get the PPI report. so things are gonna get a little hectic and just to make it a bit more fun, we're gonna get to listen to our boy Rick Santilly in a mere seven eight minutes when we get the CPI report. Now, in case you missed yesterday's show, you might be wondering yourself, why is Matt starting early? Well, it's because that inflation report comes out an hour before the Market opens. So like I said, under 10 minutes from now and definitely coming at an interesting time.

I Mean if you have been looking at the market which I'm sure you have been if you're watching this by any means because the Market's been Rip City I mean the Spy not long ago in the low 400s and we're trading at 434. you have Tesla ripping. You have Netflix ripping. You have Nvidia holding You have apple ripping.

you have meta ripping Google even had an almost had a nice breakouts Mike We have major major Tech plays looking really really good on top of that, Just like a little bit of a side note here: I don't know how many of you are trading Oracle excuse me Oracle Reported last night and they crushed. they beat top and bottom line. So Oracle up right now in the realm of gained six percent yesterday and in pre-market it's up another 5.2 percent. In fact, it's up so much that Larry Ellison who has massive Equity within Oracle he is the founder has now surpassed Bill Gates I Believe his net worth is in the realm of like 130 billion now so lots of exciting things going on in the market obviously all the day really getting started with this CPI report so we're going to be paying attention to that.

Then I have some news we should go through and it's going to relate to some major macro like macro economic stuff and then to individual stories such as what's going on with a new AI company being supported by Nvidia what's going on with Oracle What to pay attention to for the remainder of the week? And also don't forget today, outside of the world of just pure markets and economy, we have Trump's arraignment I Believe in Miami So we're going to be studying that just to see what's going on because obviously it could prompt some political volatility which could perform some economic volatility before we get really into like, kind of that math economic trading stuff. Um, if you're a Nuggets fan, congratulations to you. For those of you who don't know, the Nuggets ended up beating out the heat in the NBA Finals I Believe it took What? Five games, Four games? I Think it was. Yeah, the Heat won the second game.

So other than that, I mean the Nuggets were just incredibly incredibly strong. Um, so if you're a Nuggets fan, congratulations to you. They absolutely destroyed. They actually won pretty handily.

What is this? Just because I haven't said hi in a bit. Hope everything kills it today. Adventure Joe Shout out I Hope you're doing well man. I Appreciate the love I Hope you have an amazing day I Hope you have a barn burner of the day I I'm praying that Rick Centelli says barn burner I'm praying that he says barnberg I Just got something in my eye.

but we're not going to drop the pen today. If we do anything, we're gonna keep the show the trail. like the train that is the show preferably on the tracks. and we're gonna hold this pen the entire time.

No dropping of the pen now. Like I said at 8 30 a.m ET in about four minutes, we're gonna get the CPI report. As of now, the CPI year-over-year expectation is 4.1 with core. When you take out food and energy, the expectation is 5.3 with CPI month over month or looking at 0.2 with Core, we're looking at 0.4 So those are are your year over year in your month over month expectations.

Now here's how I see it if we come in hot. As we've discussed many, many times before, as an inflation is higher than expected, that's probably gonna be a bearish impact on the market. And the reasoning for that is if inflation is higher than expected, the market will most likely perceive that as increasing the chances of the FED doing it. 25 bips right? Hike This time around, As of now, as I'm talking to you, there's a 79 chance that there's no rate hike at all, as in just keeping it flat.

We're pausing this time around 80 percent chance 79.2 If inflation comes in hot, it's going to increases the chances to some degree of maybe the Fed this time around doing a 25 bips right hike instead of a pause. Obviously, if we come in soft, well, that's going to be good. And honestly, even though the Market's ripped a lot, if we come in soft, it might push the market even higher. So obviously we'll have to go over some levels of interest to pay attention to.

And if we come in at expectations, it's going to kind depend what's in the report itself. So there's going to be a couple of things to listen to. But the major thing is CPI 4.1 percent core 5.3 We're getting in at 8 30 which is now just two and a half minutes away. And let's get this all ready.

so I can show you guys what is what? Market Absolutely ripped yesterday and actually was following this trend line until around 7. A.M This morning we're both below the trend line, but maybe it doesn't matter that that much right now. Um, I think it's going to be more so impacted on what in the world is going on in this CPI report. Uh, so we're going to be listening to our boy Rick and then I'm sure Steve Liesman will have some follow-up and then after that, we're going to be getting into some of the major levels of the market.

For example, if this does do well, I'm going to be looking at 3561. but just so you guys know right now, depending on where we open up, if we open up above 433.88 which we couldn't because right now we're at 434.32 there might be a downside. Gap they'll play. So for anyone who's maybe short-term trading trying to look for an interesting play, maybe something to consider, but obviously this is all up to you.

You got to do your own research. you got to do your own. DD You gotta really respect your own risks or reward. I'm not there training exactly with you.

but anyway I didn't want to to call out this potential of a downside Gap fill at 433.80 but who knows, by the time the market really ends up opening, we could be way higher. We could be way lower. You never know what's going to be going down today. so Oracle As you can see, it's up five percent.

We're going to be talking about that. They did have earnings, but remember, earnings season is now essentially over, we're going to be waiting a handful of weeks until we get the next batch. Rumble Had a really good day yesterday. Closed just below 11 at 10.

94. 11's a big breakout level really 10 itself and 1050 was solid to get above. But now that we're knocking on the door of 11 from there, I'm watching 12 and then after that I'm watching 13.50 Shopify Had a pretty solid day. We've been watching this one more so on the daily chart.

I Just want to bring this up I Unfortunately didn't play it, but you got the breakout, the reaffirmation, and then the pop and let's see if it can continue above 65, which it looks like it might be doing today. so just want to bring that up just because. I Don't really give it that much time, but definitely still on my radar. Kind of actually the same with some of these.

Airline As we talked about Southwest breaking out at 30 and might be a little bit of a swing play if you want to hold it for a while, but maybe maybe targeting that 40 level. currently trading at 31.67 so a lot of interesting movers, but overall, stock futures tick higher ahead of Key May inflation report that's going to be coming out momentarily, so let's see. let me reload this just so we can get the most up-to-date info and we're going to be going live here on the CPI headline. since it in June of last year 9.1 percent.

it's come down every month for 10 consecutive months. Will this be the 11th? Uh, No other sector in the CPI series can say that. since it's high water mark and we're only a couple seconds away, we're going a couple seconds. Let's go, let's go.

let's get some 68 yields on tens and the data starting to hit the wire. Rates are moving up already, so somebody seems to burn this number before I'm seeing it on the wire. Services We're now up to 372, 373 110 of 1 on CPI headline exactly is expected. up four tenths.

If you look at Core stripping out hitting expectations, that's exactly as expected as well. Year over year, four percent lower than expected. We're expecting 4.1 Our last one is 4.9 So indeed, this could continues that streak. This is the 11th consecutive month since 9.1 percent in June of last year, which was the highest level since 81.

Each successive month has been lower. and if we look at Core, which many believe is the most important, 5.3 percent. as expected, we're expecting 5.2 so it's 110.. the CPI itself came in lower lower was as expected.

This series peaked in September of last year Becky at 6.6 that was the market and up for a good reason. The month of March which moved from 5.5 up to 5.6 so it hasn't been continuous. this is lower. Uh, we do see that interest rates have been moving around quite a bit.

We're now right back to this 368 through 69 level. and if you're looking at intraday 10, We've had a lot of little noise volatility here, but if I had to summarize as I think the market is now, it's definitely a bit better than expected. These are still sticky numbers year over year, but we we are making progress. We see that the pre-opening equities are a bit higher than they were before this number.

We're up about 40 points in the pre-opening Dow futures Becky in the panel. Back to you. Okay, Rick Stay right there. We'll get back to you in just a moment.

Steve Leesman joins us right now with his reaction to the numbers: Steve What do you think you know? I'm still concerned about this uh uh uh Core number which is still 5.3 it's the source of the Fed's concern and I think the market is trading in a logical way. What I'm seeing is affirming up in the sense of a pause this month. Um, but a uh, increasing bet on and I'll just double check that while I'm talking because sometimes there's a lot of volatility right around the number. Yeah, an increasing bet I would say on the idea of a hike in July which is now at 68 or 66 percent I guess is the way to put it.

Um, and we're not getting the help from housing. It was, uh, unchanged at 0.5 percent. One of the expectations of those who think inflation is going to fall is the idea that housing inflation will cool off. I Haven't had a chance to see many of the other details in there.

You did get a negative number on real earnings. It'll be something of a drag on the economy. Shelters some of the other data here it looks about I'd say you know a good enough, You can tell whatever story you want out of it. In terms I'm not saying it's it's a dovish number or a hawkish number.

Pretty much as expected. it's still a little bit. You see the NASDAQ NASDAQ doubled uh, that's interest rate sensitive. Gold immediately moved.

dollar immediately moved Bitcoin immediately moved. um it I don't know July's a long way off I hear you I hear you but uh you know they're going to have a lot of they do skip then they're going to have time to to to think and we saw how much this last one moved around 68 I wouldn't I wouldn't put any money on 68. maybe maybe it's 80. maybe it goes up uh with the number but July is a long way off and the knee jerk was in the dollar gold in the NASDAQ Sure I mean well.

look you got another chance. Joe for the inflation numbers to come down before the July meeting. Uh, maybe we'll get a little more cooperation from housing. uh maybe a little bit better uh numbers in terms of declines in those those core Services thing that that chair is looking at.

but look, um, you're still at 5'3 you're still above five percent on that area that Powell is looking at. So I think he's not going to feel like job is done unless you get a better number in July But and these these all these you know the NASDAQ goal. Everything could Reverse by the end of the session. but just so the knee-jerk there was, It certainly wasn't off the charts worse than uh than people thought no no and like I said like I said before, the um like I said before I think it would take I think a big number, a big miss, a big Miss to the upside.

uh, a big beat to the upside to get the FED to not pause this meeting. Okay, Steve stay there. Uh, we're gonna bring in two more voices to this conversation. Kevin Hassett Who is the former Council of Economic Advisors chairman under President Trump and now a Hoover institution distinction Hamilton Project Um Wendy Let's just start with you: You agree with Steve's assessment here that this makes a pause more likely at this meeting, but a hike more likely at the next.

Yeah. I Think they pretty much have to pause at this meeting given how they have signal to markets and what Market expectations are for. But I guess that's 11 times in a row that they want to put two more hikes on on the table and that's either or maybe one 50 basis point hike at the July meeting. I Think what I'm seeing in the economy, not just inflation, but also in the labor market and in consumer spending is the need for probably two more hikes.

I Mean today's report is not all that surprising given that the pace of real good spending, the stuff that we hold in our hands and put in our driveways it is five percent above its pre-pandemic Trend And the labor market is. You know, we see hiring at about three times a sustainable Pace I Think what we see here is that the FED just has more to do. Uh Kevin Let's talk a little bit about that. I mean 5.3 percent core inflation year over year is a problem as Steve points out.

um, what's the FED gonna be watching most here? What are they gold pop in Bitcoin Popping dollar dropping, the market jumps out, at me, unfolding as much as I thought and uh, we've been getting four tenth cores for quite a long time now and the year over year number is going to get weirder and weirder because last year it was. You know, in the nine dollars. Now we're running at a pretty steady pace of 0.4 I Think the the FED wanted to pause. not really because they expected that the CPI was gonna go below 0.4 or I'll put a poll rather because there are some leading indicators like initial claims we're above 250.

You know, the warn act Warnings of layoffs have started to go up a little bit. There have been some leading indicators that the softening that will pre-sage an actual big reduction in inflation is beginning to happen and they want to wait and see if that suffering occurs over the next month. But you know, if this had been a 0.6 core then they probably would have had to lift rates. Now my guess is that we're gonna not see a sharp change in the economy between now and the next meeting, and that the sort of you know two-thirds probability of at least getting a quarter point is about the right guess of what's going to happen at the next one.

Hey, Steve did you get a chance to look through more of those numbers? Just what the the hot points on the core are. Whether that be month over month or year over year. you mentioned housing not coming down as had been expected. Anything else that really stands out? Yeah, this used car number stands out and I don't know about you but I Get all my information about automobiles from Fill the Bow I Think the last report he had was that used car prices were declining and we have this really anomalous and large 4.4 percent monthly increase in used car prices.

So I'm not quite sure what's going on there. Maybe I misunderstood Phil Maybe used car prices are still searching. You had a one-tenth decline 4.4 That was kind of interesting. You also had a pretty big gain of Transportation Services Um, yeah.

Motor Vehicle Insurance up two percent. We can talk to Contessa about that, but other than that, uh, obviously you have the big decline in gasoline prices. Energy down three six, uh, gasoline down 5.6 I'm not sure all of the decline we've seen in Gastly so you may get another month of that. but I hate to say I told you so Becky But for I think 20 years I've been telling you why we want to follow the core and not the headline because headline comes down and you can can see that sticky core.

that place where you want to fight. you want to, um, space your policy and focus your policy on. That's why the FED is doing this and they're not really taking into account there is one Theory out there. which is that if gasoline and food prices do come down, other prices will come down around it.

We haven't seen that yet. Look, I will tell you on the insurance prices for cars. It it takes the insurance companies a long time to go state by state and convince The Regulators that they need increases in the rates that they are passing on. Yeah, this is lagging.

It's definitely lagging. They don't want to do that, but when you look at the increases that it's cost to repair cars when they get in an accident because of the time for getting the parts in the increases in the parts, because the supply chain issues, that is definitely something that is a lagged effect on all of these things. Rick You look at all of this, he thinks we're done. He has said that for a while, right and stay four percent for used car prices.

which is. look Freyerman, this is the second 4.4 increase for two months in a row. Rick I Just I just seem to remember I seem to remember Phil saying that used car prices were falling but I got to get him on the phone I'll talk to him in a minute Rick You think? What do you think? The Fed's done? Still right? Yes I Still think the Fed's done. Here's my issue: there's a boy Rick and 5.3 is higher than we like Sharp as always in one month.

Uh, we do see these things slowly working their way down longer. higher for longer is the answer. Being aggressive in the here and now, having the FED pause now to come back and raise rates is a possibility. but in my opinion, dollars.

We're looking at levels that are coming down the dollar picks up for the market to take a hit. These numbers started to go sideways or move higher in a more aggressive fashion. I would understand, but I will stick to my analogy that they've turned the thermostat way down in terms of bringing the temperature of inflation. But they need to understand that where you have to cover every degree on the way down, we're not going to Gap drop here and I think that the FED wants to be tough because they believe there's a psychological Edge to inflation.

If they don't get ahead of it, it's going to metastate decides in everybody's brain. I Understand that. but if they raise rates to 20 percent I don't think it's going to alter the General State of how this is going to come down if they want us to go into recession. I Get it.

But it seems to me if you look at the UK and you look at the U.S there are different Dynamics underpinning the inflation in various parts of the world. Pop them together and say well, they all started because of covet. But I think at this point on the inflation understanding meter, the United States is different than other locations and I think the Federal Reserve ought to just hang Pat and over time continue to watch how higher for longer will moderate inflation. Kevin Respond to that because it's a it's a good argument.

Well, yeah, Rick always makes good arguments, but on this one, he's making a bad good argument. The the bottom line is there are almost no signs of any progress. If you think about it, let's just go back. But I'm doing it for memory, but this guy's talking right.

4.4.4.5 out of six have been four tenths, five years or something like that, you know? But but there I don't think they're a really strong signs and and that's why I agree that they're gonna have to move again and they're probably gonna have to signal that they're going to move past that. You know the Taylor Road right now and you know that might be a little bit high. but I think that we're still down in the range where you're not really going to take a a big swing at inflation with interest rates this high and and it's showing up in the core which isn't moving at all, it's it's the same place it was last fall. All right.

Um, let me ask. Yeah, go ahead. Steve back Yeah, hey. So Phil LeBeau Heard my call and he wrote to me.

What he said is that it's wholesale used car prices that are falling and okay, I'll read you exactly what he says is wholesale coming down. Retail has not fallen in the same fashion, but still it's It's a little bit weird. Maybe that is just real quick? I I Want to respond to Rick at a very clinical mathematical: Thing Rick If the funds rate is 5.13 and core inflation is 5.3 percent by definition, the Fed by that equation is still stimulative to the economy, right? And it was 9.1 in June of last year and it was up seven tenths, uh, two months in a row towards the end of 2021. we have made progress.

Inflation didn't just accept an exogenous situation and I do think that this is different than the 70s are one comp. College Fed doesn't have any Market history. Continuing of fighting inflation. It's not double digit.

Hang tough. Don't raise more. All right. I Want to thank our panel Rick Steve Kevin and Wendy and by the way, you saw the NASDAQ was the big winner coming out of that number at least.

New jerk reaction. You're now looking at the NASDAQ indicated up by about 107 points. Andrew Okay, uh. after this, we've got an exclusive interview with the Faa's former acting administrator just left the agency and we're going to hear why.

in addition to his thoughts on the state of the challenges of his former employer and all it's faces, Well, that doesn't matter. who cares about the FAA Uh Bitcoin up a little bit holding above 26 000 Ethereum at roughly 17.50 As of now, the markets are up and they're up for a very logical reason. Inflation came in less than expected, which is essentially saying there is a snowball's chance in hell that they raise rates. There's a 96 chance that we just pause, which is what people were betting on.

and that's why the Market's been absolute. Rip City Um is are things overextended? Is there a little bit of Fomo? Is there a little bit of hype? Yeah. But just because things are overvalued and there's hype, That doesn't mean it can't be more overvalued and more hyped. Will this hold throughout the day? I Mean your guess is as good as mine.

But as of now, there's a very logical macro economic report reasoning of why we are popping there. It's logical. Like, for example, when the market was ripping because of the debt ceiling, we pretty much all knew that the debt sailing situation was going to be resolved, that the US was not going to default. That the American I guess the global trust in America being able to pay their bills was not really going to falter.

And yet, even though we all knew it, the market still ran on the fact that we were able to get it resolved. So I think we're seeing that now. Um, Are things overextended? Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes Yes. Have the Bulls been absolutely dominant? just ripping the face off the Bears 100 percent And yet we can still keep going.

So I'm not going to sit here and be like okay, even though like we're super super high, we have to come down now. I Think reasonably. It makes sense that things are overvalued. But remember the saying I believe it's a buffet saying.

but maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm giving credit to the wrong person here. but the market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent. There are times where we trade in an overvalued situation.

There's times when we trade in an undervalued situation. So because of that, sometimes, and like I'm almost saying this as a reminder to myself here. Sometimes you just have to go with what the current trend is. It doesn't matter if it's overvalued, It doesn't matter if it's undervalued.

Price action is what makes you money. Price action is what loses you money. Not you calling out, Well, hang on. It's overvalued right now.

It should be coming down. You know, when it's going to come down, it's going to come down the day after you go bus. You know when things are undervalued and it's gonna eventually pop. Yeah, it eventually pops the day after you go bus.

That's how this is obviously saying this like tongue-in-cheek That's how this game works. At the end of all this, what truly truly matters is price action. What matters is breakouts and rejections. What matters is breakdowns and bounces.

That's what matters. What matters is your risk and reward. Not you sitting there being like, well, we've already moved a ton, so maybe we should pull back. Now once again, it can remain illogical.

It can seem insane. It can seem ridiculous. far longer than any of us, even combined multiplied by 10 can remain solvent. Import an important situation.

And like I said, I'm more so saying this as a reminder to myself because I feel as if I'm currently caught in a situation where I truly believe and I don't think anyone would like anyone with fundamental breakdown of the market like we're clearly overvalued I fully believe we're overvalued. hence why I have a bunch of puts. But yet I'm still getting my ass handed to me because we have Fomo going on. We have some shorts getting squeezed.

this. Do you know what it's going to come down? It's going to come down the day after my puts expire. Most likely like that's just how this kind of works. So it's If anything, it's a reminder to myself of Hingham.

You could have a bias. You could be doing fundamental breakdowns. you could have a strong gut feeling, but at the end of the day, what rules the kingdom is price action. What really rules is Trends And right now, the Bulls are trending nicely And there's also a reason we have the other saying of don't fight the Trenton which is kind of the situation I've gotten myself into.

but hey, that's A-Okay The way to fix it is just obviously respect your risk, throw in your towel when you're wrong, and then just re-evaluate Try to come at it with a clear mind and you will be A-Okay But right now, the Market's looking very strong for those of you who are joining in. Here's what happened: The CPI expectation was 4.1 percent. We came in at four percent, the core expectation year over year was 5.3 We came in at 5.3 Uh. so basically we came in lower than expected.

The Core which is acting a bit sticky and you might have heard that term and maybe you're a little bit confused about what it is. Um, sticky. It's kind of exactly that. that inflation that's very tough to bring down like it is sticky.

Obviously that's a super high level definition of it. But think about it. like by the actual definition of sticky like, uh, something tough to battle. tough to change.

Um, So right now, Core, which is the inflation measure when you don't consider food or energy, which is by many many accounts a more important inflate inflation measure. Uh, so that is a little problematic, and that's most likely the fact that Core is still sitting at 5.3 That's exactly why when you go to the July expectations as of now, there's a 63 chance that we do get a 25 bips right hike and a three percent chance that we get a 50 bips and then obviously a 34 that we get no change in that meeting. So once again, this is not for the June meeting that we get the results of tomorrow. this is in Late July I'm talking July 26th There Is Us two-thirds percent chance that we get some sort of rate hike.

Now obviously for the meeting tomorrow, this is pretty much a done deal. I Think the entire world would be like Jaw drop Surprise If we just don't pause, there's a 97.6 chance that tomorrow at 2 P.m the official result is we pause the rate hike. What's going to move the market either to the upside or to the downside is what Jerome Powell has to say. So at 2 Pm, this is the expectation and they're going to come out right.

Hike I wouldn't be. well I have no reaction. excuse me I Wouldn't be surprised if we get a little bit of a pop because it takes out some uncertainty. But really, what's gonna make tomorrow either a Big Green Day or big red day is what Jerome Powell has to say at 2 30 PM ET Obviously I'll be streaming it so I Hope to catch you there.

So as of now for tomorrow, what you need to know: Most likely no rate hike, but we have to listen. Jerome Powell And then if we fast forward to this July meeting once again July 26th the fact that core is still sticking at 5.3 percent and yeah, most likely we're going to get another 25 Pips I Wouldn't be surprised if they kind of do the skipping thing where like, okay, well let's see what the numbers are in August and then we'll continue consider in September If things are still coming down, maybe they pause again and then give us another one in November or maybe they just because there is a month break there with August Maybe we just get another 25 bibs in August But at this point what the FED is doing is they are seemingly successful in the fight against just the CPI that inflation measure we spiked in June at 9.1 we're now down at four percent and next month will be a year since we got that Sky High reading of 9.1 we got it in July It was June's last reading this time around I Think people will be considering that of like okay, how far have we come down from 9.1 percent? Yeah, I think that's going to be on a lot of people's minds, but I think the major thing is they're going to be tracking this core reading. it was expected at 5.3 ran at 5.3 Obviously it's just holding holding holding. So I think the Fed and the FED members especially the voting Fomc members are going to be looking at that thinking, how can we get this down Then the main tool at their disposal is to continue to increase the FED fund rate.

So that's going to be the major thing that's been paid attention to lately. But I think that's going to start to dominate the conversation more and more and more so we're going to see how that all ends up going. As of now, the market is strong as expected. I Mean that's what happens when your inflation comes in lower than expected Bitcoin Oddly, not holding by any means.

Gold did pop a little bit, going flat and the dollar it put in a low popped, but now maybe a higher low. So just because we came in soft today I Don't want it to come across as if like I'm guaranteeing that today's today is a green day Because remember when you zoom out, don't forget that Ever since mid-march our Market is currently up 14.4 And then even if you look at what's going on in June from June the start of June on this month, we're up four percent in the overall market. And then if you look at the cues, we're up even more. I Mean in that same time period, it gets absolutely ridiculous.

Where is the start of June Right here? Let's see how much this is up. 4.4 I Mean the Nasdaq's crushing it, The overall Market's crashing in. Even the small cap sector is catching a bit. right now, the market is obviously treating this report with a bit of enthusiasm that makes sense.

Will it hold? I Don't know. I Think the odds are probably favoring that it will, but it's uh, there's nothing in the market that's a guarantee. Let's see how they've updated their Title Here s p Future S P 500 Futures gain Has inflation levels slow to the lowest since 2022.? treasury yields fall after CPI report showing slowing inflation ahead of Fed decision. and I mean markets across the world are definitely trading this with some optimism if this page loads.

Uh, recently we had the German Dax the German Market they had an all-time high Japan's Nike tops 33 000 points Asian Markets rise ahead of Fed, meaning there's a lot of enthusiasm. Inflation Report: Tuesday will be critical for the direction of Fed policy. Like I said. The best way to summarize this: the fact that inflation came in lower than expected, a bit cool, a bit soft, pretty much cements the fact that we are not going to get a rate hike.

Tomorrow There's some negligible percentage I Can't say zero percent, but it's very, very small so that came out. Uh, the expectation was 0.1 and 0.4 or four percent. Um, that is a little odd to me. I don't know where they're getting their numbers because everything I saw was expectations were 4.1 and 0.2 and we came in at 4.0 and 0.1 So these are the results that came in.

and I think the Expectations by most people. um, the median expectation was 0.1 percent higher and once again, this was all for CPI The core CPI hit expectations which was 5.3 and 0.4 percent respectively. Fed rate pause set to get support from moderating inflation data. Yes, Yes, yes, and Kathleen Several fund officials have signaled they're ready to hold.

How will the CPI numbers could it potentially playing I Mean, it's only out in the first day of the Fomc meeting? Well, but you know it's a number they have been waiting for, right? They probably got the last meeting when they made their move. Many people have commented that, well, yes, I might be open to pausing. Now it's called a skip because we're going to leave the door open to more rate hikes. Etc But I'm going to watch three important numbers.

We got the job support and now we're getting the CPI report on the first day of the of the meeting. Plenty of time for them to factor it in and tilt at least or finalize their decisions. A nice Hefty drop in uh CPI that that's what used to be a normal number 1.110 and the core is 0.4 0.4 Not moving. That's not so good.

but if you look at the year over year uh, numbers which are affected certainly certainly by base effects. In other words, numbers were so high last year, they just have to look lower now. 4.1 That'll be the estimate for the the headline CPI The Core CPI year over year. Um, expected to come in at 5.2 from 5.5 So let's move on and look at one of the big drivers here and that is uh, commodity prices.

that's thing, something that is coming down. In fact, energy price has actually fell 3.1 percent last month and that is a big part of what we're seeing here. so that's good. But quality prices go up and down so you also want to look.

They do go up and down and in fact Core Services Now we know that Services prices have been coming down and the Core Services as well. It's the Super Core. It's the green bar which has already come down forecasting it will come which has been very first down. They see it hitting Um and uh, remember this is this is this is the the number that Jay Powell watches so closely.

That's why people have come to call it the Super Core. It's Core Services take out housing. That's what you get the big story today. one of the most right on the Bloomberg terminal.

A city strategist warning that Traders are actually underestimating just how good this number is going to be, how much it's going to drop. We'll see if if they are. it could be that it's not that they're uh, over and estimating or underestimating Heidi Maybe it's just that they're not quite sure that's going to happen and they want to hedge their bets. For now, the FED seems to be backing away from wages when it comes to a major driver of inflation.

Does that play into the decision? Well, to a certain extent. It certainly could. Uh, definitely some research out of various Fed Regional banks have come to that conclusion. Not that it doesn't drive it at all, but it isn't as much of a driver.

And of course that would suggest to people who think the FED is too hawkish and could harm the economy. Well then, hey, you don't need to hike rates. It's not going to. It's not going to help to bring down wages, because that's not going to have that big of an impact on inflation.

The other side of the coin is though, when the FED looks at a hot labor market in low unemployment, they seem to talk a lot about final demand. If you've got a job, if you've got a good paycheck, you're going to keep spending money. Well, if you do that, how can you bring down inflation? Now what we saw today from the New York Feds Survey of Inflation Expectations was that interesting. Over the next year, we saw inflation expectations come down again.

You can see they're in a nice downtrend if you look at the longer term inflation expert that the near term you're you're out. Expectations are driven by the inflation that's right in front of you. The inflation you've experienced most recently. The longer term expectations are driven by what you've experienced over a longer period of time.

So progress on both fronts. Uh, certainly. I Think regardless of whether you're looking at tilting towards the hike, the pause right into that equation you have to come to to make up your mind. I Think the latter half of this year is going to kind of get pretty freaking messy, but we could talk about that a bit later here.

Let me switch this back down. Uh I Just saw this come across I Want to share with you if I can bring it up the index for Meats Poultry, fish and eggs decrease 1.2 percent in May as the index for eggs fell 13.8 percent, the largest decrease in the in Whoa! What just happened? Uh, the largest decrease in the index since January of 1951. So for a bit there we had eggs that were absolutely Rip City and I Guess they're now coming. So hey, maybe we'll be able to afford eggs once again pretty soon.

That would be nice. That would be a nice change of pace for us. finally be able to make some omelettes again. So with respect to today, it seasonally it is leaning bearish.

I Mean you can see that for most of the time it did absolutely nothing. This is buying it open and selling it close every single day. On this particular day. over the past two and a half years, So buying it open, selling it closed every single singular day.

This day. over the past two and a half decades, most of the time it did nothing. and then we had a big loss. a small gain, and a big loss.

So there's two losing trades in here. two bearish, favorable trades that ended up swaying this. But overall, it's kind of a new neutral day. I Had to put leaning Bearish just because there is a sell-off and the profit factor is so low.

But overall, I Don't think seasonality is going to have much of an influence on today, in particular, just to share with all of you. Now, obviously there's major things that I want to talk about related to the overall Market but I do want you to know that not only is the market right now kind of getting a bullish Tailwind by the fact of coming in soft on inflation. we also had a big tech company Beat Oracle beats on top and bottom lines as Cloud Revenue jumps which also now means Larry Ellison rides AI Boom to highest wealth ranking ever. The Oracle founder has surprised Bill Gates to rank fourth on the Bloomberg billionaire index as shares of the software firm have climbed 42.

So obviously and prayers go out to Bill Gates who uh, Ellison just ranked I'm sure he's just. he's a sad guy, probably down to his last 100 billion. Now there's a reason that we're talking not only about the opportunities but the risks around. AI Because it seems that this could be a Monumental change in the tech industry and just how we go about in our daily lives, right? So not surprising.

Anything related to AI right now is getting a boost including the wealth of CEOs founders is related to AI companies. Oracle for example, could benefit given that generative AI needs tremendous computing power and we've seen Larry Ellison's net worth rise to record highs and surpassing that of say Microsoft founder Bill Gates and today he has now a net worth of two as well. 29.8 billion dollars? Hawaii Island right? The AI boom. We've seen the the stock price really pushing records they've had.

You know that boost when it comes to the cloud computing business as well, continuing to be seen to grow so rapidly and as you say, we've seen sort of the the riches that have been made out of AI But important to note of course, lots of concern as to what that regulatory framework could look like, potentially worthwhile automation or development and whether that's even possible today. existential risk coming from AI technology as well. And we know that when it comes to Larry Ellison uh, his net worth up almost 38 billion this year Bill Gates Up by just shy of 23 billion that has been not just out of Oracle but also I mean he's had a good year 38 billion? That's that's ridiculous. 30 billion Also, someone in the world of AI uh Nvidia backed platform that turns text into AI generated Avatar boost valuation to 1 billion.

So this is Synthesia synth SEO I Guess that's how you say it. Uh, 90 million from investors backed by Nvidia Obviously kind of riding the AI hype wave. How big will it get I Don't know how big will the bubble get before it takes a bit of a breather. Maybe a little bit of a mini pop going on? I Don't know because things can always get bigger like once again.

Then this kind of relates to what I was discussing earlier with all of you. Um, just because things are overvalued, doesn't mean they can't become more overvalued. Just because things are undervalued, doesn't mean they can't become more undervalued. this.

Market the world we live in. It's it's not perfect. It's not perfectly efficient. There are a lot of inefficiencies.

There's a lot of things that occur that are illogical outside of the realm of logic and math, and you got to be prepared for that. This is a high variance game and it's just it's part of the game. So uh. this.

we're not going to change that. Uh, the fact that so many humans are involved. Crazy stuff happens. It's an excessive multivariate equation.

We're not going to change that. so you have to be prepped for things happening that are what we would consider outside the realm of likelihood. outside in the realm of possibility, outside the realm of just like, really pure reason. And we're in one of those events now and you have to be prepped for it.

Another crazy thing going on: I Don't know what that just got highlighted. Uh. Trump heads to court to start fighting Espionage Act Charges This is going down today. First time a former President charged in a Federal indictment Trump His valet accused of jeopardizing National Security Donald Trump is due in a Miami Federal court today Tuesday the 13th this afternoon to face charges alleging he jeopardized National Security by violating the Espionage Act even as he leads the Republican field for next year's presidential race.

Trump is accused of willfully retaining and mishandling classified documents including top secret nuclear information and War plans after he left office. No other former president has ever been indicted federally, let alone face. National Security claims. Legal experts say the U.S Justice Department has historically treated such cases as among the most serious.

When you look at the information in the indictment, it's remarkable and it's dangerous. In terms of National Security Unless there's accountability, our allies will start to wonder about us. Trump who and did nothing wrong has called the prosecution ridiculous and baseless. He and his supporters have questioned why other elected officials notably President Joe Biden and former president Mike Pence have had excuse me have not been charged for having classified information in their position after leaving office both.

Biden Pence notify the government and turn over the documents after finding them ahead of Trump's arraignment, authorities are taking precautions Miami police are gearing up for crowds ranging from 5 to 50 000 people and I guess from a legal definition they're kind of considering if it involved um, like intent or not and all that type of stuff. but I'm sure crazy things are happening I Just want to put this on your radar because surprisingly, I think this is getting less attention uh than normally things of this level would. or maybe I've just been too busy in the market I Don't know but I do want you to know that on the political field, there could be craziness today because Trump will be arraigned in a federal Miami Courthouse today. So definitely something to pay attention to.

Scheduled for this afternoon, just so everyone knows five things to know before that stock market bill goes. Ding ding ding ding today Tuesday June 13th. Let me just reload this in case they want to talk about um, any of the new stuff. Inflation in the FED Fomc meeting starts today.

it concludes tomorrow. We get the results at 2 p.m and then at 2 30 the chairman of the FED Jerome Powell will be speaking. Obviously I will be streaming that today an hour before the market opened at 8 30 a.m We Got the CPI report. It came in soft.

it came in cool. It came in lower than expected. As an inflation is coming down faster than expectations, at least the CPI is core. CPI when you take out food and energy is still a bit sticky which means this time around as in the Fomc results tomorrow, most likely no rate hike.

but in July there probably will be a 25 bips based on the current situation an hour before the Market opens. Tomorrow we we will get the PPI report the Producer Price index. So basically the CPI is inflation for consumers, the things that we buy and then obviously the producer Price index is the inflation for the people doing the manufacturing and the services and that type of stuff. So based on today I would expect that number tomorrow's number to also come in later than expected and my expectations are that for tomorrow we're also going to see no rate.

We're going to see a pause. I'm not expecting a hike I'm not expecting a cut I'm expecting a cause that is my current base case and it's also then 97 98 Probability of that playing out boss battle. So Call of Duty I covered this a little bit Yesterday is in, uh, kind of a dual front War one with the FDC because Microsoft is attempting to acquire and merge Active Vision into its business the Ftc's name. we think this is too monopolistic.

It's against Anti-Trust practices, but this is also happening at the time that there's now a large social backlash against particularly Call of Duty because of a situation involving Nick Merks and Tim The Tatman and commentary on just I don't know some social issues, particularly in Glendale, but it's also representative of larger, just craziness going on in the world right now. So a lot of gamers a lot of big Gamers a lot of popular Gamers A lot of influential gamers are just kind of going against Call of Duty. they're just not playing the game anymore. they're deleting it off their system.

So Call of Duty which is owned by Activision is having a large social backlash. and now obviously you throw in this like the FTC the Federal Trade Commission trying to stop this uh, Activision is just they're having a rough run of it right now. Oracle shines. They crushed uh, top and bottom expectations and right now Larry Ellison Like what did they say and he added 38 billion to his net worth this year alone and we're only halfway through the year guys crushing it.

Uh, leapfrogging. Bill Gates in the world's richest standings Toyota charges forward so Toyota is actually up. Um, they are talking about what they're doing with EVs and people liking him a Raymond day. We just spoke about this with the former president Trump Uh in Miami he stands charged with 37 felony counts over his retention and classified government documents including top secret.

National Security Record words. So he's going to get a Reign today and I'm sure there's going to be some sort of important update afterwards. And one more thing. Uh, obviously the Nuggets won last night.

They won pretty handedly. Uh, just dominant I Don't know what else to really saying if you're a Nuggets fan, congratulations if you were a Miami fan, you just really didn't have a chance this time around. Um, I did find this hilarious clip I Think so. The star player on the Nuggets is kind of a quiet guy.

He doesn't have a large social media presence but I went down to like a little bit of a rabbit hole I Guess he's obsessed obsessed with horse racing to the degree that he kind of doesn't even want to go to the Denver Parade for them winning because he needs to get back because he has Horse Rising on Sunday completely comedic? Uh, absolutely yeah. excuse me hilarious. Next week or two look like for you. Now you got a parade coming up here on Thursday Yes, how soon till you're back inside the Sundays I Have my horse racing horse racing? Maybe I don't know how we're going to arrive Thursday or eight.

Friday Maybe would you make it? I Don't know. maybe maybe you can have enough time to squeeze it in? I'm gonna ask Josh to Josh is the game very very obviously. He'll definitely let you get the team playing. You deserve that.

You deserve a little more than that I did it on TV I'm gonna finish my uh, my full team under the pressure I Don't feel bad, he just wants to race his horses. It's that simple. He just wants to race his horses. You know he wants to be the most dominant player within the NBA this year and he just wants to spend his time racing his horses.

Just that's what he's into. Um, once again, you if you want to look this up BLS the Bureau of Labor Statistics Bls.gov and you can see the most recent CPI report yourself. That's the website, but coming in at four percent expectations, we're 4.1 And then if you're looking at this number right here, highlighted 5.3 That is the core. That's when you take out food and energy.

That's it. Hit expectations a bit sticky. Um, last time around, what do we come in at I think last time was five five. Yeah, it was five five.

So still coming down, but not exactly what people really want to be seeing. Um, so this is. this is the base argument for the pause tomorrow in terms of the FED fund rate and most likely 25 bips increase in the Late July meeting I believe July 26th. So that's where we currently stand and that's also why the market is absolute Rip City So in the top left of your screen you see the S P 500 Futures Contract es just ripping I mean just bottom, left, top, right type of stuff.

We have gold. Kind of chilling out. we have Bitcoin kind of chilling out and we have the dollar kind of chilling out which I find odd I find it odd that gold isn't still going up dollars and still going down. and Bitcoin is it going up? In fact, Bitcoin's coming down now.

Uh so with this, would I chase this out of the game? No I don't like chasing at all. In fact, I think if you continually Chase time and time again, it's just a matter of time before you like blow up your account. So would I be chasing the market at this level level? it's not for me. I mean you should do what you think is appropriate.

Obviously, if you have some sort of methodology that you're like, no, like, this is telling me with a certain amount of statistical Edge that I should chase this hey I wish you the best of luck I Want to let you know that there is a downside? Gap Though to 433.88 the Market's already up four percent this month. things are overvalued, but as I alluded to before, obviously, things can always become more overvalued. The interesting thing about bubbles is it's very, very very difficult to predict the timing of a bubble popping. I'm not calling the market an overall bubble I'm calling AI the start of like a mini bubble probably.

Uh, but right now in terms of things being overvalued, they can remain overvalued for a while, so you need to be very specific with your entry. Very disciplined with your risk. Will this eventually come down? I think so. I'm actually very confident in that.

but once again, it's the timing that is the difficult part. It is very, very difficult. right now we see some of the tensions with kind of in the semiconductor industry. with the US China Taiwan they're coming down a little bit.

We have Oracle crushing it so their inflation came in soft fomc. Probably gonna pause. There is decent arguments in the short term. like a little bit of a hype, a little bit of a catalyst keeping things going.

That is a fair fair argument. But when we start looking at what's going on with inflation and what's going on with future guidance and will earnings be able to be sustained into the latter half of this year, I Would think that the fair argument is no I Don't see this really being sustained that well. but once again, this is a bit more of a midterm discussion. I'm not talking particularly about today, this week or this month.

Uh, but I think the latter half of the Year this I I guess I Just don't want anyone to necessarily feel like fomo that they have to invest right now that they have to buy right now. Um, if you have a long-term Outlook if you're like I don't care I'm looking 20 30 years out? Yeah, okay, have at it. Plus or minus. whatever.

10 20 right now is not going to really impact you. Uh, but this concept I think a lot of people are fomoing in right now and which means they're really chasing in and if it keeps going you could be good. but also remember that type of fomo that type of Chase eventually that just ends up creating bag holders. So if you missed this one, what I'm really trying to say is there's always going to be another opportunity.

The Market's always going to be open another day, you're always going to have more opportunity. and if this is just I would say for more of the medium time argument if you're a day trader, yeah, today could be wild. Have that if you're a long-term investor, yeah, it's always. I Mean statistically, there's been zero events in which if you invested and fast forward 15 years you weren't up money.

as in once again, you cannot find a particular day that the market was open in. U.S History that if you invested on that day and waited 15 years that you were not up money. So for the short-term people have at it for the long term people have at it in the medium term. I mean just be respectful of the fact that the Market's really rip.

Not long ago we were at 380. we're currently trading at 436. that's a large large gain. So I just um I see a lot of Fomo going on, especially on I mean Reddit when it finally came up yesterday.

I Don't know if any of you have been following the Reddit story, but basically there was like a mass revolt against Reddit because of some of the uh what they're doing with API changes and people saying it's going to cost a lot of money and we don't like that for mainly impacting third per party applications. But anyway, people not happy with Reddit So Eventually Wall Street bets Came back online yesterday and I don't know I see a lot of people thinking that they want to chase off of this and it could keep going I'm not the person who's going to tell you no way are we peeking out right here. I Bet that we were picking out and evidently I was wrong, but in general you could always wait for a cheaper price. You could always wait for a more reasonable risk reward setup like I Don't want people to feel pressured in to chasing long to chase things short.

chasing it works every so often, but eventually you find that one event where it just like kicks your absolute teeth in. So that's a little bit of my soapbox discussion this morning. Let's bring up some of these uh, things that you're probably going to be interested In. Rum Had a very good day yesterday.

Tesla 254 Nvidia Back above 400 I'm gonna have to do a little bit. Um, I mean some of these things are now gapping up above my risk I'm gonna give it those first 15 minutes and if we're not seeing any weakness whatsoever, if we're not seeing any profit taking or anything like that, I'm gonna to start cutting my losses because I'm above my risk point and that's what you do when your risk is broken. So that's a little bit of my personal plan for this morning. Yes, the seasonality slightly favors the bears, but I am specifically using that word, uh, slightly because if anything, this is more of a neutral day.

So I just want you guys to know that. And on that note, we have about 12 minutes till that market Bell goes dingy ding ding ding. So uh, we don't usually get this much time before the market does officially open so I would love to turn it over to all of you to see what's on your mind, what questions you have. uh Matt said sell Tesla 183 what are you talking about? I was in Tesla at 202 and I sold it at 215 and 260.

do I wish I held it yeah for sure but I killed it on Tesla What are you talking about I Like when people just like make up random things like I mean there's video documentation. there's local post documentation of like absolutely crushing Tesla and could I have crushed him more? Yeah, but I definitely. I don't know what you're coming up with 183 when I was in at 202 and I was out at 215 216 which was resistance. Um I mean Tesla's been on a rip I wish I had some Runners running but no I crushed that play crush it uh.

oil. yeah, recovering a little bit but still at 69. Uh, not the best recovery we've ever seen in the world of oil. So generically when you see the market higher uh, it can in a certain way be representative of extra demand which could drive up prices.

But really, oil got severely beaten down recently because of what's going on with Russia Russia has increased Supply Obviously if demand stays the same and Supply increases, price is going to drop. Uh, we had this bike previously in early April because of just some commentary and decisions from OPEC really Saudi Arabia and just like continuing to cut theirs so we are at this bottom. I mean we have support support. You'd want to see oil bounce off of this but if it goes lower the interesting I guess fly in the ointment.

Here is what's going on with the Strategic petroleum Reserve uh and in the U.S and what like because really the Biden Administration has been using a lot has like we're just depleting our Spr So eventually they I mean judging on what they've told us, that they are going to start refilling it and we just really haven't been seeing that so much. Why is Mullen such a good company? That's a very fair question. Very fair question. I mean I think it's because they just have like such a genius business operator as the CEO If you had to ask me, just like when you have such a a mental Titan leading your company, you're just bound to do well, bound to Duo Matt Told me alligators are ordinary because they got all them teeth.

Oh You mean angry and no toothbrush? Yeah I Got that from my mama. My mama. My mama says my mama says that alligator is so angry because they got all them teeth. No toothbrush.

What's going on with Teo It closed out yesterday at 96. Uh, a dip. Onto this is the Hindenburg research. We're coming down a little bit to 94.

Uh, yesterday's lows was 86 Looking for it to crack that? uh Oracle is it still up? It's going up even more Oracle went up six percent yesterday. Now it's up six percent in pre-market Uh, closed at 116, opening up at 123. Uh, that's absolutely ridiculous. We have Netflix and Nvidia both going up Netflix 431 Nvidia is trading at 401 I need to cut that and I should help my Netflix I just I Thought things were overextended and like I said I do truly believe eventually it'll fall.

Apparently it's just not happening in the time frame that I thought it would uh that you you and I worked for Mullen I wish only if they gave me Stellar freaking stock I would work for Mullen if they just paid me my entire salary in stock because like, who wouldn't want this bad boy who wouldn't I mean dude that that's a good stock right there. Even though the Market's going up, this thing closed at 38.60 now trading at 36, somehow losing 10 yesterday and down another seven percent. Who would have I mean that's it's just I know a deal when I see a deal Neo going up. uh what else do we have this morning? Are there any other big movers? I'm particularly excited to see what happens with Rumble today because Rumble had a large breakout large Breakout of 10 10, 50 battling it out this trend line and 11 would love to see the break and hold above that today.

the 11 Mark uh, but classic Drop Pop consolidation. You could call it consolidation. You could call it a Darvis Bob You could call it whatever you want, but I'm going to call it a breakout on volume. The average 10 day volume on rum Rumble stock is 1.23 million and yesterday traded 3.6 million.

So uh, we had almost, well, yeah, almost triple the volume of the 10-day average on a breakout. To me, that's a Telltale sign of a confirmation. So watching that sofa yeah Sofi is killing it because of the high likelihood of people being forced to start paying their student loans. Again, that's actually why Sofi started to get crushed is when they pause student loan payments.

Uh, but now that they're most likely going to be turned back on. So if I may be just not struggling as much as a business because they're gonna have an increased Revenue So that's what's going on there. Matt Did you see the 2018 video of Gary Gensler saying 75 of crypto are not Securities I Did I saw videos of him also essentially pumping algorand I saw a lot of crazy things so we covered that yesterday. but uh, in case you guys missed, it, actually can I find that short somewhere.

Can I find that short? My content? Uh, right here. U.S Congressman officially files Bill to fire SEC Chair Gary Genzer U.S Capital markets must be protected from a tyrannical chairman including the current one. That's why I'm introducing legislation to fix the ongoing abuse of power and ensure protection that is in the best interest of the market. for years to come, it's time for real reform into fire.

Gary Gensler As chair of the SEC Folks, you don't need to pin. So this was breaking news yesterday. but uh, you had Congressman Davidson and Commerce Congressman emmer uh both. I guess co-signing co-hosting a bill to get rid of Gary Gensler So that's what's going on with Gunsler right now.

obviously not having the best of of days, but I mean I think we should get rid of them I think he's kind of a piece of uh for the longest time I try to hold out hope that there was, uh, kind of like a political bureaucra