Thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you Foreign You're probably wondering why I invited you here this evening and the answer to that is simple. We need to have a talk about what some of you have been saying about me on the internet. Where's all the team Matt Support you guys! Just like to shit talk me and it hurts my feelings and it's the reason I cry in the shower In all reality I don't care. We're here actually to talk about the stock market and specifically some of the crazy things going on.

like the fact that maybe the Santa Claus rally is canceled, maybe the fact that Tesla is taking a very abrupt nosedive to zero. We have a lot to talk about and I know it's the holiday season and this is probably the last thing you want to talk about. So I'm going to make it quick. This is obviously going to be a stock market wrap-up episode.

We have a lot to get into, but I'll make it as quickity lickety-splittity as I can. and uh, I'll stick around at the end if you have any questions. So my goal here is to make it like 20, 30, 40 minute kind of discussion. a little bit shorter than normal.

Obviously, if you like to talk about stocks, crypto, breaking news, or my hats, this is a place for you to be. So make sure you hit that like button and more importantly, make sure you hit that subscribe I think if I perform. oh shit well not perform that well. but if I perform better than what I literally just did.

there's a chance of us maybe hitting 57 000 on Rumble in real time. and then obviously we are on our road to recapturing 350k on YouTube land. So if this is what you're into, let's talk about it. I See some questions about uh, looks like AMC stuff.

Any of that uh, we'll get into all of that at the end. feel free to fire away. But let's just say a little bit of context of everything happening in the Old stonk Market world today Tuesday December 20th Let's Ride Dow closes higher to end four day losing streak. Not the best day in the old stock market.

the Spy slightly green 0.1 You could call it a turnaround Tuesday but it was pretty lackluster. Uh, the queues slightly red, the small cap sector slightly green. not making many people feel too good about their Investments Now if you look at the S P 500, at least it's not horrifically bloodbath red as it has been over the past couple of trading days. so maybe just maybe fingers crossed.

We're putting in a bottom in terms of seasonality I Want you to know Monday of this week? pretty bearish Tuesday of this week pretty bearish seasonality wise. I'm just telling you about how things have played out on trading day of the month: 13 and 14 for December over the past two and a half decades. Pretty bearish tomorrow though. a little bullish, a little bullish now and I want you guys to get too excited I'm just letting you know some hardcore facts, but you know what's exciting Thursday becomes extraordinarily bullish, so maybe that's something to get a little jacked up about.

So bearish bearish Monday and Tuesday little bullish, then very bullish, and then still pretty bullish to conclude the week. So I just want everyone to kind of know where we're at in terms of seasonality. Is seasonality? like an end-all be-all Does it always have to play out like that? No, not at all. but it is still pretty.

Be important and if you exclusively trade on seasonality based Trends you'll most likely be a profitable Trader So it's not a guarantee I Just want to let you know Are we being supported by Tailwinds or are we running into headwinds I Also want to throw out there just for any of my black gold Traders AKA Oil the end of the week Friday Very, very, very bullish for oil just I Want to throw that out there before I Forget now in the world of crypto also Green Day Uh, better than the horrific red we've been seeing lately. Bitcoin May be putting in a little bit of a value set up Ethereum? Maybe putting in a little bit of a valley setup Bitcoin Trading just below 17 000 Ethereum trading just above 1200. So I Hope I Hope the pain has stopped. Now, if we take a step back and kind of look at everything that's really going on, history suggests that the S P 500 is set to rally on the back of the U.S Dollars recent weakness.

Now remember the dollar. The Dollar Index tracked by Dixie dxy commonly moves in an inverse manner to the overall Market. Basically, if the dollar is going up and up and up, that means that when you do the exchange rate when we're running operating businesses in Europe or really globally by the time they convert it back, you get less money. So that means you're eating into your bottom line.

So in the world of the market, this is exactly why the dollar and the market moving in inverse Manner And the same is true between the dollar and Bitcoin. If dollars going up, there's a good chance Bitcoins going down and obviously vice versa. But let's get into some stats: fats and figures. Going back to 1972, there have only been a limited number of other times that the dollar fell or then Yen rallied this much.

in the span of two months. For the S P 500, the weakness versus the Yen tended to be positive for U.S Stocks Once again, because this is an important note for the S P 500, the weakness versus the Yen tended to be positive for U.S stocks in the one-year time frame, Every occurrence since 1978 has experienced positive returns, with just two periods posting less than double-digit percentage gains. So all right. Obviously, this is how things have played out historically.

Does that mean it has to play out this way exactly this time? No. But in the world of the market, that's saying is history doesn't repeat, but it often. Rhymes And we've seen this time and time again. Such as really, what happened yesterday, we knew yesterday was seasonally bearish.

We got a big red day, today's seasonally bearish, and even though it was slightly green, there were a lot of major equities such as Tesla that was pretty red. Speaking of seasonality, let's talk a little bit more about the fat old Jolly guy. And no, I'm not talking about myself. a Santa Claus rally in stocks May fizzle this year, and that means 2023 returns are at risk and any games likely hinge on the FED cutting rates.

So the final thing right there about the FED that really does show the importance of our monetary policy. If the Federal Reserve is being accommodative, look for the market to rip. if they're being restrictive. as they are right now, it is very, very difficult to for stocks to perform.

In fact, this is a side note after I was looking into kind of the giveaway that we did today. Uh, you know what one stock is that is actually net green on the ear? Like what major stock is actually net green before? I'm I'm obviously going to go way too far off on a tangent here. Good old Texas Roadhouse Year to date? Look at this puppy. Look at this puppy up 7.3 Texas Roadhouse The Golden Bun Creator The restaurant.

We all wish we could be the place where everyone should probably get engaged because it's the most reasonable, amazing environment ever. Texas Roadhouse Up 7.3 percent When the good old stock market that thing that we're told to invest in forever and ever and ever is down 20 percent, That's phenomenal. That just shows you the strength of the good Cinnamon Golden Buns. Just wanted to throw out some facts.

Some hardcore facts I Don't know if you'll be able to handle or not. But anyway as Santa Claus rallying stocks May fizzle this year and that means 2023 returns are at risk and any gains likely hinge on the FED cutting rates, so they need to fight the the FED needs to cut rates to be a little bit more accommodative. They might not do it though because we still have inflation, so it's kind of the it's a balancing act of we don't want to send the world into a recession, but we also don't want to have persistent inflation. Uh, definitely a job.

I'm happy I Personally don't have the window for Santa Claus rally on Wall Street doesn't open up until the last five trading days of the year, which begins this Friday and Spills over into the first two trading days of next year. But as long as the S P 500 ends 2022 down, 10 or more investors should practice caution getting in too excited about a rebound in 2023. So once again, if we go from now until the end of the year and we're still down in excess of 10 right now, we're down double that we're down 20 percent. The odds tell us that 2023 not looking so hot when the index is down in the double digits as it is today, The odds of it being positive next year is essentially a coin flip, and the returns aren't nearly as promising as they would be if the S P 500 ended down less than 10.

Once again, obviously, the stream is a little bit more focused on just uh, the statistics we have from previous years, and that's definitely not the end-all deal, but it lets you know a better idea of where we currently stand. If we end down more than 10, it's basically a coin flip of if 2023 will be green or not. If we end down less than 10 as in like 9.9 or less, the odds dramatically increase of 2023. Overall, being a greemier if you ask me, right now, will 2023 be a green year? I Am highly doubtful, but that doesn't mean it can't be green in your account because we're looking to buy very close to the dip and ride it back up.

and I'm of the humble opinion that I think the dip will come roughly roughly in the middle-ish period of 2023.. So I'm not looking to buy on January 1st and ride it all year. I don't think that's a winning trade. That's not what I'm looking to do for my long-term Investments What I'm looking to do is get in on some of my favorites such as Apple Microsoft Nvidia Tesla um UNH I mean some of my favorites: I'm looking to buy at that sweet sweet discount which once again, roughly roughly in mid 2023.

So I'm looking to be positive by writing that until year end if it makes any sense now. I Know that's a little bit long term, so let's um, let's look at really what's going on in the short term. Bill Gross says markets are headed for potential chaos if interest rates keep going up I believe he is known as the Bond King You warned in March that if the FED went above two and a half to three percent, they could quote crack the economy. They're above that.

now. what's going to happen? Well, um I think certainly the economy is slowing down, and ultimately we've got a recession. It's it's been bolstered, the economy has been bolstered by, you know, tremendous amounts of, uh, trillions of dollars of fiscal spending. But Ultimately, when that is used up I Think we've got a mild recession and if interest rates keep going up, we've we've got more than that.

Define more than that. Well, um, we've got potential chaos. and financial markets today is a good example with the Uh overnight situation with the Yen and the Yen what they call the uncarry trade I mean lots of Uh money have been invested on the basis of shorting the end and buying a relatively safe Alternatives like treasuries or horse stocks. and um, now with the Yen strengthening as opposed to weakening.

and with interest rates, they're moving a little higher as opposed to being close to zero. Then you know this young carry trade stands a good chance of being reversed and that speaks to Global assets as opposed to just U.S assets and U.S treasury treasuries today that take all right? So I know I Could already feel that your eyes are glossing over a little bit, but he did say important stuff. So for the people listening that like you're really informed about that Yen carry trade, you had a very good point. Now for the rest of us who maybe aren't so informed, this is the key you need to take away.

the economy has been bolstered by tremendous amounts of trillions of dollars in fiscal spending. But Ultimately, when that is used up I Think we've got a mild recession and if interest rates keep going up, we've got more than that. That's what's going on right now. basically in totality, the Federal Reserve the people who just can create money out of thin air in the economy in the height of the pandemic.

In totality, it totaled up to 8.9 trillion dollars. That's a lot of funny money. The money supply was vast and what happens when you have too much Supply and the demand stays roughly the same? Well, the value goes down. And now we're going from a place where money was cheap, money was very, very cheap, and that's where everything was running.

On top of the fact that we're all locked inside, on top of the fact that we all had stimulus checks like the market was going bonkers. and now the Federal Reserve which all that led to inflation. Now they're pulling the E-brake as if they're just trying out for the new Fast and Furious movie, It is very, very tough. The environment we're in and I even see this on Twitter I see this on Reddit Right now, it's like people are pretending like AMC Gme These meme socks have the same chance of moving dramatically to the upside as they did in 2021 as they did this year.

That's just not true. We are in a wildly wildly different environment, and it is very naive to of anyone to think that the ease at which stocks move to the upside in 2021 is able to be replicated this particular year. It's simply not true. It is not true at all.

that is not a proper understanding of the larger picture and as things look right now, it looks like the same scenario will be continuing into 2023.. this concept of things just going Rip City For absolutely no reason, the odds of it were already very low, even in accommodative environments. But when you get into a restrictive environment, the odds aren't zero, but they are a snowball's chance in hell. I Want that to be explicitly stated explicitly stated and we're seeing it.

Not just in the stock Market. Home building has more room to fall and odds for Recovery are next to nil until demand improves so basically too much. Supply Not enough demand. Home building has more room to decline as the housing market showed continued weakness on.

Tuesday The number of authorized projects which have not been started remains extremely elevated, so permits likely will fall for further. Still, in the face of falling demand, developers don't need to keep adding to their pipeline at the current. Pace a meaningful Rebound in construction activity is still a long way off, while the downturn in housing Starts likely has further to fall. Excuse me further to run based on the lead lag relationship between permits and starts.

So we've been talking about this a little bit more and obviously it's a very, very popular topic within the world of I Guess content Creation In the finance sector housing sector, it's going under a lot of pressure right now and we're not really seeing signs in the immediate future that that pressure is going to be alleviating a bit more pain similar to the stock market I Would expect to come now if we go a little bit more International And we heard this just with uh I guess the Pimco co-founder right there. the bond King He was referring to what happened with Japan overnight While Most of us were sleeping, but probably some of us were partying Bank of Japan shocks Global markets with bond yield ship the bank of Japan equivalent. that's their Central Bank so equivalent to our Central Bank This this is their equivalent to Boj. Caught markets off guard by tweaking its yield curve control policy to allow the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond to move 50 basis points either side of its zero percent.

Target In its policy statement, the Boj said the move is intended to improve Market Functioning encourages smoother formation of the entire yield curve while maintaining accommodative Financial conditions. Obviously, the world did not react positively to it. the Asian market definitely did not react positively to it and we're gonna have to see how it all plays out now to switch it up ever so slightly to the craziness that is crypto. Sam Bateman Freed said to agree to extradition after chaotic hearing, the disgraced FTX founder who has been in a Bahamas prison for the past week, agreed to be sent to the U.S After a confusing day in court, the disgraced cryptocurrency Mogul Sam Bakeman Free does agreed to be extradited to the U.S One of his lawyers said on Monday after a chaotic morning of legal maneuvering in which Mr Bateman Freed has shunted back and forth between court and prison in the hot.

Bahamas Now I said this yesterday, but now that more has come out of the situation, it very much is a kind of two-prong reasoning. Number one, it's probably a better legal maneuver for him. it's probably a better legal strategy. Number two: Fox Hill The prison he was in sucked ass.

It was an awful prison. he was probably looking at this of I can't be here whatsoever and to the point that he was like visually shaking, visually distressed and he probably just didn't want to deal with it anymore. So I'm actually kind of surprised that maybe he's in the US right now that has not been reported. but I would expect definitely by Christmas that Mr Sam Bateman Freed will be in the U.S In general, just crypto has a high level.

Uh more. Cuban Excuse me the Dallas Mavericks owner says last year's crypto boom was 99 noise and Sam vaping freeze. The rest could pop the bubble. So Speaking of this noise and the fact that everything was rippity skippity doodah in 2021.

uh, the same thing we saw in stocks happened in crypto. This is what happens when you have an excessive amount of money that is cheap. People are locked inside and everyone's getting a stimulus check you create. Bubbles And now with the Federal Reserve and obviously some of the goliaths in the industry who we thought were solid, but obviously we're about on a House of Cards come tumbling down.

This is when you see bubbles popping. Various bubbles are popping and you're literally living in history. Mark Cuban Said there's still some underlying value in crypto despite the ongoing sell-off. With that being said, I Want to know what you guys think? I Personally am still a big fan of things such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

but I think a lot of these other coins tokens are gonna go to zero I Truly believe that I think it's few and far between that are actually going to survive this downfall. It's just when the water goes out, you find out who's been swimming without pants on and that's exactly what we're seeing Now at this point, I'm really not interested in anything else beyond the world of Bitcoin and Ethereum. I've personally just been burned too much and now that I have a better understanding of that unadulterated enthusiasm, it can't last forever and we're seeing the tide go out, but obviously that's my thought. I would love to get yours I Am still very supportive of crypto as the technology.

this concept of the Boj, the ECB, the bank of England, our Central Bank they do just too much things with our money. they're turning our real legitimate money into funny money. and then I think there's going to be a counterculture movement against that. and I think right now Bitcoin is the lead in the race to basically become a store of value.

Maybe it's wrong, but I think too many people are starting to learn about what central banks truly do and how much influence they have in our life. and I can't speak globally. But at least here in the US these people with such unadulterated power, they're unelected. We don't pick them and yet they have so much control over our daily lives.

And I think all of a sudden there's going to be a counterculture Awakening where people are like wow, screw that. Obviously there's already crypto. Whatever. YouTube Twitter Reddit but I think it's going to go far more mainstream.

Speaking of FTX and bubbles popping, it sounds like Binance is still very much in trouble. Big short Investor: Michael Bury says crypto Reserve Reviews like finances are essentially meaningless. This is kind of piggybacking on the very awkward interview CZ the CEO of Binance recently gave CNBC as recent as last week where he was just getting shredded by the Squawk Box team particularly. Becky Quick.

So hey, Becky if you're watching this shout out to you, you crushed him so Michael Berry one of the people who's kind of profiled in The Big Short This is the problem in 2005 when I started using a new kind of credit default swaps our Auditors were learning on the job. That's not a good thing. same goes for FTX Finance Etc The audit is essentially meaningless. They were kind of looking at the assets, but they're not really calling out the liabilities and then even that, there was just so much confusion about like, oh, we're not going to audit it well because no one does it but then they're like, well, Deloitte does it for coinbase.

Why binance, why wouldn't you use one of the big four Auditors A lot of confusing stuff going on and it's basically adding up to we're still not having any concrete proof that you should be I Guess feeling safe with the current situation I Have said this many, many times recently and I want to bring it up once again because it is that incredibly important. I'm still supportive of crypto, but there's no reason to leave any form of crypto on any. Exchange Self-custody in my humble opinion, is the only viable option and I would personally take that a step further and say that really, most of your crypto should be in cold wallets. It shouldn't even be connected to the internet, so obviously that's my opinion.

But if you want to avoid the craziness of Block Five, Voyager FTX or any other future thing that might go to the Wayside these yield products are jokes obviously I've personally fallen into the Trap of them previously. But what happens when you touch a hot oven? You learn to stop touch the fucking hot oven. You gotta move on and learn a better way to protect yourself. And I'm here to tell you: I Personally believe the best way to protect yourself is to not leave any of your crypto in the hands of anyone else.

You should only trust yourself. I didn't come up with a transition to this next story. Uh, so you're just gonna have to imagine that I had a really good transition. Um, and now we could talk about Elon Tesla's getting its ball sack kicked in like really really bad.

like I don't know. uh, like a pelvis doctor might have to look at this situation. Have you guys seen what's going on with Tesla It is horrific trading I was calling out in the 150s. By year end we cracked through the 140s today.

137.80 is what it closed. Look at this vomit vest. Not only obviously the Market's going down EVS going down and Tesla is just getting murked. We went from 416 all the way down to 137 year.

to date it is down 69 allegedly. Elon Musk is actively searching for a new Twitter CEO So we covered the story just yesterday and there was that poll where he's like should I step down and he's still gonna own the company but maybe he's just not going to run it day to day and I have a feeling there's a lot of internal pressure from Tesla saying hey man, we kind of fucking need you here and we need you here now because our company is going down way too quickly. Stop fucking off with Twitter You can own it, do what you want, but find someone else to run it to me I Feel like that's what's going on I Don't think that this poll was really a spur of the moment type of a decision I Truly don't believe that I think there's just so much going on with his other business ventures that he simply doesn't have enough time in the day to also successfully run Twitter to be the men, the man at the Helm of the ship I Just don't believe it. so Elon Musk Actively searching for new Twitter CEO I Have a feeling that this has already been going on once again, just by own opinion.

it's not like Elon calls me up every single day. It's more like a weekly call we have. so I don't quite know about this I'm just kind of throwing out my own opinion on the matter Now this doesn't really have to do anything with Tesla the market I Just thought it was pretty crazy. so I wanted to share it with you Nike Employees describe sloppy drunk men witnessing oral sex and requests to dress sexier at work in newly unsealed surveys.

It sounds like Nike is a complete dumpster fire. obviously this is on. Business Insider it's very long I Would recommend if you guys have some free time checking it out, but this is incredibly bad for Nike So once again, I Highly recommend you all check it out, especially if you're invested in Nike or if you're more of one of these I don't know moral people you might want to re-evaluate your support of Nike after checking out what's going on here because every line is crazier than the next. Speaking of crazier than the next: Today was day two of the holiday giveaway Extravaganza Which makes today two.

tomorrow is gonna be three. If you want to be involved in this giveaway, it is free. Go to Macquares.locals.com It's pinned to the top of Chat. it's in the description of the video Hit Become a member and sign up.

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there's going to be a new post. All you have to do is comment your Twitter handle your Instagram handle your personal email just a way that I could reach out to you. So if you're the winner I know where it is. send the gift.

Yesterday someone won a trading slash gaming monitor. Today someone won 300 gift card in Texas Roadhouse Which means still up for grabs is a Nespresso beats over the head ear headphones over the ear headphones. Um, we have a PS5 a Nintendo switch and various other Texas Roadhouse gift cards. They are all still up for grabs tomorrow morning around 10 30 in the morning.

But all you have to do is enter Locals Madcourse.locals.com pin to the top of chat in the description of the video the code to get the premium version for free. If you choose to not do any financial support which is 100 fine, use the code Moon gang make sure you're selected on monthly. It's all one word. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, reach out to me directly.

Shoot me a DM on Twitter and I'll try to help you out if you're having any confusion, that's what I have for you. that's Today's Show like I said I Wanted to keep it about a half hour just because it's I Know people are kind of out of the market mode so I wanted to do it quickly and then uh, more than happy to do any questions, comments, concerns anything like that with all of you guys I am ready to let it rip with all of you cool people. uh what do we have Elon doesn't give about Tesla investors I Have a feeling he does because he's probably the largest Tesla investor Um so I think he cares? Uh R L. White became an astronaut Shout out RL White I appreciate that.

That's very, very kind of you. Wow! my hair was a little bit not perfect. Uh, thanks for not embarrassing me guys. Weird oversized Yamaka I'm wearing? You mean my Santa Claus hat He owns 13.

Probably the largest individual owner. What's your favorite flavor of candy cane original? I'm gonna go with the OG gonna go with the OG what's my favorite? Christmas Candy probably just like the chocolate Santas the dark chocolate sennas are you considering Tesla gab fill from like two years ago filled. Uh, let me see. so there is a gap Phil We've been calling this out for a while and I think it technically filled today.

What was the high 137.48 Did we hit that today? What was today's low 137.66 No, not filled. Uh, we have what? 18 cents to go I bought one of them Donald Trump nft When does this thing pop up in value? Uh, if it hasn't said already I don't know what to tell you I I Think the people who made money on the trade did it very very quickly. When does uh Christmas every arrive you'll have to talk to SBF re about that one. Why do you never play cod with this anymore? Because I was too sad of getting my teeth kicked in by 12 year olds who were exponentially better than me.

Do you think Elon is bipolar? No. I think he just doesn't give a shit like I think he's rich and he doesn't need to impress anyone at all anymore like he literally calls out Senators Congress people the president other like he he just. that's what happens when you're according to Forbes the world's wealthiest man I Just don't think he gives a shit. Uh, are you avoiding layer ones right now? I mean technically Bitcoin and Ethereum are layer one, but so no.

Well, I'm not buying anything yet because I don't think the Bottom's in. So even though I'm still supportive of Bitcoin and Ethereum, I'm not buying right now. Uh, I Think we're going to be able to pick up some Bitcoin very close to 10K He's not the richest anymore. Matt I mean I don't think he was actually ever the richest because Forbes is only reporting things that are publicly reported.

It's not like any of the Saudi oil money was being reported. It's not like any of the Russian oligarchs were reporting their money. There's a very real chance that Elon was never the richest man. That's why I said according to Forbes I Mean he's even said that like literally Elon has said that there's an extraordinarily High chance that Putin has way more money than him because richness is defined by how big your heart is.

is that puffball attached to your hair? Yep. Now I'm just a very Dynamic streamer. All right, it's a really I can't get it up anymore. That's what she said I'm actually the richest man.

It's a secret though. All right folks. TV Team team. That's what I have for you today.

Make sure you sign up for locals and the posts will come out tomorrow morning. and that tomorrow morning post. That's where I need your Twitter and all that stuff. um to get a chance at winning So everyone get on Locals Macors.locals.com Sign up for monthly it is.

The code is Moon gang to get that sign up for free. That's what I have for you I have a Bea beautiful day I Appreciate all your phenomenal Vibes Shout out to all the Goonies I appreciate it I would not be here without you I'll catch you early in the morning. Peace out Foreign.