Bull Trap vs Technical Breather || Stock Market Open
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RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
DISCLOSURE:
I have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMC & GME either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.
Love yourself, when no one else will say can't help it they're just selfish. I some light inside my mind. I wonder why i'm here sometimes it seems like. I can find a reason why, if you just love something too foreign uh, oh hey! Oh, hey! Hi! Oh, hey hi.
It's me matt, we're here to talk about the market, which is about to go ding, ding, ding, ding ding. In about 30 minutes we have a lot to talk about to get ready for the day. We should talk about ukraine. We should talk about biden and oil prices and gas prices.
We should talk about the sec and spax. We should talk about apple and blackrock and a cool star that we just found in the big sky. Above we have a lot to talk about uh. We will be getting into all this the overall market.
What's going on with amc and jamie we'll look at some charts. Yesterday was a rough day for both amc and jimmy in the pre-market training it's coming back, but it was also kind of looking rough this morning mullen had a great day uh. So we have a lot to talk about uh, just to feel a little bit more comfortable uh with how everything could play out on the final trading day of the month, thursday march 31st boy. Oh boy, oh boy, we are ending the quarter.
This is the end of the fiscal quarter, q1 about to be in the books and, i hope, q1 in your p, l is green, green, green and fingers crossed. It becomes a little bit more green today, but with all that being said, let's hop right into it. To better understand what in the world is going on, but before we get into that, don't forget that if you want free stock and no payment for order flow, no market makers sign up for public and on top of public, which is right here up to 70 Of free stock from public - well, it says from mac course, but it is from public uh, public dot com, slash, matt, kors or you could just put in the code matt. It is for people within the us, but you could also would see my like my account.
That's what's kind of cool they uh kind of it's a hybrid of like a social media app, but also for investing, so hey make sure to get your free stock. Here's a quick little sneak peek at. What's going on the s, p 500! It did sell off. Yesterday and i'm still looking at this gap filled to about 456, but right now, we've just been kind of coasting gme had a good.
Ish morning we went green up until actually 1 p.m. The first half of the day was pretty solid and then it got hit and hit and hit and hit and relative to where we closed, we're only down an extra dollar. Fifty right now we are getting a little bit of a bounce back amc kind of a similar scenario, but that one started selling off even earlier that started selling off at like 10 30. uh amc had a bad day yesterday, down almost 13.
So, let's see if it can bounce back now. Overall, yes was some consolidation necessary 100 um. Obviously i didn't want the sell-off to be anywhere close to this brutal. I would have preferred a slightly green day and a little bit of just like sideways training and said we got hit on both of those. So, let's see what the bull camp, what the ape camp can possibly give us today in terms of mullen halfway through the day because of a interview with the ceo of mullen automotive, basically saying they don't think they're gon na have any really supply chain production issues That interview was with benzinga after that announcement boom. It exploded and rocked 29. We should also be checking in frge. This is a spac play.
Super super low float and it just started going haywire yesterday. So for those of you who are like really into active high volatility trades with the low floats, maybe this is something that you want to throw on your stock list, also very, very quickly about um. What's going on with crypto and we'll cover this in more detail on the crypto stream at 2 p.m, if you're not yet subscribed to crypto course, obviously it's completely free go over there check it out if one of the mods could throw that in chat. That would be awesome, but crypt, of course, if you're on rumble you're good to go, you don't have to go anywhere else, but on youtube.
You have to go over to that other channel, but yes, so well, crypto's, green right! Now it's been looking very strong, but solana is ripping. Solana has gone from 80 to almost 130. This thing has gained more than 50 percent in about one or two weeks. Avalanche has ripped like a lot of crypto is just doing really really well right now.
So i just wanted to quickly shout that out because there's quite a bit of money, money-making opportunity and if you're already interested in it or if you want to learn more about crypto. We do have a whole another channel uh, where we really get into the nitty-gritty of that. What is this amazon hired an influential democratic pollster to fight staten island union drive? Okay, that sounds fun, so the dow and the s p are slightly down on the day, but they're basically break even the nasdaq is slightly up. Oil is coming down, we'll be getting into what's going on with oil, it relates to biden releasing more, and then we have the 10-year yield coming down slightly as well.
Five things to know before the stock market opens today, thursday. March 31st. Like i said the final trading day of the month, the final trading day of the quarter and almost the fining trade all day training day of the week wall street's set to wrap up strong month, but weak quarter, uh very, very strong month. The second half of this month for equities the overall market crypto has been absurdly strong, but overall the quarter not the best.
I do want to remind you from a seasonal perspective, the final part of march all the way until the end of april. Basically, that five week period seasonally for the overall market is very, very bullish. Oil sinks ahead of opec plus decision reports of u.s crude release, we're going to get in more of the details of that yield spreads remain tight ahead of key jobs, inflation data, so we're going to talk a little bit about the fed after we get through some Of this ukrainian stuff that's going on, but once again the two and ten remained or at a certain point yesterday they did go, inverted uh. They. I don't believe right now, as i'm filming this in real time are, but they flash another uh invalid inversion. For like a brief second there, so we're gon na be getting into this. If this is one of your earlier times watching me or if you just missed one of my videos about yield inversion, um two update videos ago check that out, i went into details of what these yields are. The bonds are what the inversion means.
What's the data behind it just so, you can feel a little bit more comfortable because you're going to hear a lot more right now about yields. Inverting yields flattening. So if you're just trying to piece it together of like what it means just check out that video and after the market opens when things calm down, if there's more and more questions about eels, i'm more than happy to get into it and answer any of your Questions, i do want to remind you that tomorrow is the first friday of a new month and on the first friday of a new month. That's when you get the unemployment report, so that will be coming out right here.
The government is set to announce that at 8 30 a.m et so before the market opens, and that will have an impact on the overall market because the fed's going to be using that as a gauge for what they should be doing with monetary policy. Because it's indicative of how strong the economy is, ukraine's president asked for more help to fend off russia we'll be getting into that and last but not least, covetous island limits may and biden urges passage of vaccine funds. So that's the high level stuff. Now, let's get into some of the specifics, zielinski says russia is repositioning troops in dunbas for new assault.
As uk spy chief warns, putin could target more civilians. If, i'm being honest what i saw about this was how do i become a spy chief? I don't know like what i have to do in my life or not do in my life. Maybe i already squandered the opportunity, but how cool is that to like update your facebook and be like yo, what up fam, i'm the spy chief, just a little weird thought i had at the gym this morning, but still something that's very, very important to me. Zielinski said wednesday that russia was repositioning troops in the dunbas to prepare for a fresh assault.
Russia has said it would scale back attacks on kiev, a claim met with skepticism by the us and ukraine. The head of uk's gchq agency warned that putin could turn to targeting more civilians. So, yes, the whole putin invasion of ukraine. I would argue at a certain sense.
It seems to be calming down and it's definitely falling out of the media cycle, but we are edging closer and closer to really the like literal physical assault like coming to some sort of negotiation between the two groups, so we're getting every day we're getting one day Closer and it seems like - ideally it's - it seems like there's a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel. So let's keep our fingers crossed on that. Obviously we don't want this to blow more out of hand than it already is. Uk spy chief says we believe putin's advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, leading to huge errors in ukraine invasion. The uk's cyber intel chief says: vladimir putin is being misled by top russian officials. We believe putin's advisers are afraid to tell him the truth. His claims mirror those made by u.s officials made earlier on wednesday. This is kind of an interesting thing of putin has surrounded himself by what would be referred to as yes, men and now it's in a weird scenario: where he's not getting a legitimate take.
It's a bunch of people telling him what they think he wants to. He here, which reminds me very very much about what has previously occurred with stalin, just a bunch of yes men and now they're strategists, both from the uk and u.s over the past week or two who have said it's like these. Yes, men who are unwilling them to tell them about proper strategy or giving them true accounts of what's going on, and it's led to huge strategic errors and a huge miscalculation of this invasion in a general sense, which is like kind of wild they're. Obviously doing it because they want to keep their position, they probably don't want to be unalive.
There's a myriad of reasons of why they would just act as yes, men, but it's probably led to the blunder of this whole scenario. When you're talking about this. Obviously, there's the paramount thing to discuss like the lives at risk, but then there are other secondary and tertiary things that are clearly going to be impacted and one of them if you've filled up your gas price. Your gas tank lately you're going to notice that gas prices are still through the roof, so we might be getting a little bit of a relief a little bit of a silver lining.
Here, oil prices plummet. Four percent of the us weighs up largest ever released from its strategic reserves. Oil slid on thursday after reports, the u.s may make a huge release of strategic reserves. Frank crude was on course for a weekly loss of 11 percent, its largest weekly decline in almost two years and official u.s announcements could come thursday overshadowing an opec meeting.
So we're going to be not only paying attention to the opec today, but then at 1 30 p.m. President joe biden will be speaking about high gas prices, so you could stream that if you want um, i in the crypto stream, i could give you a wrap up. If you want the crypto stream once again is at 2 pm um but biden speaking today, 1 30 pm, which probably means he won't actually start speaking until 2.. Oil prices slide as binding, considers huge reserves. Released biden said to give remarks later on thursday. Once again, 1 30 pm et with multiple outlets reporting that the plan to cool soaring crew prices will involve the release of around 1 million bearers of oil per day for several months. In a research note, on thursday goldman sachs commodity, analysts said the reported spr release. Would help the oil market toward rebalancing in 2022 but would not resolve in a structural deficit.
So this is a bunch of estimation stuff. There may be looking at a million per day from reserves, and this really, if you look at policy when it comes to energy, is a far more complicated topic than just what's going on here. Recently, a lot of people have been coming out kind of yelling out the government in a certain sense, and it's a fair point of this energy crisis seemingly was very, very avoidable, absurdly avoidable, but obviously our government being the government that we have did not avoid it. In any way, and now they're trying to play some ketchup, so ideally, this is a lot of speculation.
We should hopefully get more. I guess comfort of what is or isn't going on later on in the second half of trading today. Remember with oil part of the reason why it started coming down was because of new lockdowns in china, particularly shanghai. China's shanghai city says, will not fully lift lockdown on eastern areas on friday, so they're kind of traunching them into different areas based on like really the density of people who are infected, not infected that type of a thing.
But this is an update that came out just a little bit ago, so i wanted to share it once again. China, shanghai city, says, will not fully lift lockdown on eastern areas on friday, so keeping the lockdown wall street investors believe a fed blunder on interest rates. Is a bigger threat to the market than inflation? According to a survey, nearly 50 percent of the people polled by cnbc see a federal reserve miss up as the biggest threat to the market's u.s. Inflation was another concern, while most were less worried about the market impact of war in ukraine.
Economists, like l, iran and investor gundlach, have criticized the fed's actions against inflation. So let's talk about what this actually means: yeah, because like right there well, we know they're kind of discounting the whole ukraine war situation, but on the flip side of it, you could be like well, hang on we're hearing about the fed, i'm hearing a lot about Inflation aren't those like just obviously intertwined it is, but what this is more so talking about is more of really over the past two or three weeks. We're seeing a lot more about policy error basically saying was the fed way too dovish and now are they coming on way too hawkish like kind of um, just classic policy or time will obviously tell like right now. This is one of those things that, like it's easy to be like a monday morning, quarterback, it's easy to look back at how this has gone. Obviously it seems like a very, very messy situation. It kind of seems insane the amount of quantitative easing that they gave it like many people for quite a while were saying this is crazy and then obviously they were telling us that was inflation was transitory, not to worry about it, and then they like decommissioned. The word as they were like publicly trying to gaslight us, there's a lot of merit to the argument that this was pure policy error, pure policy error right now, they're attempting to do what's referred to as a soft landing of basically taking care of inflation without really Messing up the stock market, but time will tell time will tell because it seems, even though they should care about prices, ability and the economy. It really does seem like they care about the stock market a little bit too much and when you care about it too much, that's still letting the unfettered inflation get worse and worse and worse.
So this is why, when we're talking about, we had the first rate hike about two or three weeks ago, a 0.25. Well now, there's new discussions of, should they be more aggressive to actually battle it and stop watching their own stock investments. I'm saying that a little tongue-in-cheek there and actually start jacking up by 0.5 to better aptly fight what is going on with inflation, and one important thing that we will know for tomorrow is we're getting that unemployment rate, and i would interpret it personally this way. If the unemployment unemployment excuse me rate, comes in positively as in if unemployment goes down and extra jobs are added to the economy over economist expectations.
That, in my mind, would be bad for the stock market. I know that might seem crazy, but here's. My reasoning is if it comes in very, very positively, that's showing the strength of the economy and if the economy is very strong, that gives the fed a little bit more leeway to aggressively fight inflation as in raising interest rates, which means that they could be more Hawkish, being more hawkish is better to fight inflation, but it's less accommodative to the overall market. So if we come in with very good numbers tomorrow, i think the end result will actually be a negative hit to the stock market, because a lot of people will assert like there, the odds of them doing a 0.5 rate increase will go higher and higher.
Once again, these numbers come out an hour before the market opens tomorrow on a small regulatory update. The sec is taking aim at spax with proposed rules to make disclosures more like those in a traditional ipo, the sec put forward spac. If you don't know what a spack is, when a company wants to go from the private to the public market, you could do a direct listing. You could do an ipo and one other avenue that gained a lot of popularity within the past two to three years. Is known as a spac, a special purpose acquisition company and it's also known as a blank check company. Basically, it's a pile of money and this entity has already done the paperwork to be on the public market and then they go out and buy equity in another company, thus giving this private company public market exposure the sec put forward. Spack rules aim to give investors protection similar to those around traditional ipos they're doing this, because a lot of specs have not performed well and people have been getting seriously burned. They call for disclosure of conflicts of interest and an end to overly optimistic language about future results, but one commissioner says changes are designed to stop spax in their track.
So if you are a spec trader i mean i don't really have too many like hardcore emotional opinions about this. It's just i've seen spax do very well. I've seen specs perform awfully um. Maybe it makes sense that, like we should have a little bit more disclosure.
The fact that we're in this day and age, without like having an appropriate amount of disclosure, i think, is pretty weird apple working to bring more financial services in-house. The effort dubbed breakout would replace fintech partners i'm bringing this up because it might lead to a very legitimate trade as in whoever their partners are, maybe not really being investing. Maybe betting against them apple is developing its own payment, processing technology and infrastructure for future financial products, part of an ambitious effort that would reduce its reliance on outside partners over time. This is a multi-year plan and would bring a wide range of financial tasks in house.
So these include payment processing, risk assessment for lending fraud, analysis, credit checks and additional customer service functions, such as handling of disputes. The reason i'm bringing it up is because it seems to be very very similar to what we saw two years ago three years ago, when it seems like apple, is trying to form its own vertical monopoly, as in not relying on many other companies. So for quite a while, it was actually relying on intel for its processing chips and then it brought its process creation in-house and started making its own m1 chip and pivoted away from intel. Obviously, at first intel took a pretty big hit, but now intel has found its footing and it's really kind of making processing chips that are noteworthy in the world of bitcoin mining.
But that's for another discussion to me. This is an interesting play not only in the short term, because you could look at the companies that are going to be damaged by this. A lot of revenue coming from apple would go to core card and green dot. Well, obviously, that's not going to be happening. Much anymore, but on top of it, the m1 chip that apple started, creating in-house is lightning fast. It is a very, very good ship when they're doing these things and they're doing it in a multi-year plan, it's not something that they do overnight. They apparently execute on it very, very well um you could have arguments of like okay, it is like. Is it becoming monopolistic? Well, it depends on how you want to look at it, but overall apple's becoming a bigger and bigger company.
If you give it enough time, i think it will like really excel in this payment processing type of thing. Is it good for them to be doing it? I don't know that's up to you, but overall, i think it would add quite a bit of revenue to the company and improve apple stock. I am a long-term apple investor, just to be explicitly clear with everyone, but in the short term, maybe you want to look at some of those other plays who are going to be losing a big chunk of their revenue and if you look at how they performed Yesterday, it was not good speaking of not good you're, not good, i'm not good. We are entitled blackrock, president says entitled generation now, learning about shortages, blackrock inc, president rob capito capital capyboy warned that inflation is having dramatic effects on the economy with an entire generation.
Now, learning what it means to suffer from shortages for the first time, this generation is going to go into a store and not be able to get what they want there. You are you're going to be be bopping around a super, stylish millennial, gen, z and you're. Going to say, hey, i want my avocado toast and a very fancy frappuccino and they're gon na lick you in the eyes and say no way jose no more avocado toast for you, no more frappuccinos for you and you deserve it because you are entitled you're not Like rob here who picked himself up by his bootstraps and had to battle with it, he was never entitled it's. If you think that the president of blackrock, just a company that has assets under management of 10 trillion dollars, he's not entitled you're the entitled piece of not rob, let's get one thing very very straight: it is not the guy who is the president of a company Of 10 trillion dollars, it's you and your damn avocado toast.
So i don't want to hear it. I don't want to hear it for one second, and we have a very entitled generation that has never had to sacrifice. I know it. No one in here had to sacrifice none of you ever ever ever ever.
If one of you in here tells me you've ever sacrificed for anything, i know you're a liar because rob told me you never had to sacrifice you don't know what sacrifice looks like a lot of you might be. Like i don't know, man i've given up a lot of my life bills are kind of tough i've. Had some rough patches doesn't matter, you've never sacrificed, and i know that because rob told me so i would put on your seat belts, because this is something that we haven't seen. Yeah you're welcome, you're entitled you are entitled, you've, never sacrificed, and you just all you and your damn avocado test makes me sick. Well, this is a doozy here's. What's inside the nearly 140 000 gift bag given to steven spielberg will smith and other oscar nominees. I think this is interesting, uh juxtaposed to entitlement, and i always like when people who are famous and rich get a shitload of things for absolutely free because, like what else would you do with that money? Let's just jump into what they actually got? The most expensive thing in this year's bag is a 50 000 three night stay at turning castle in scotland, inspired by denzel washington's best actor nomination for the tragedy of macbeth guests, who accept the offer will have full access to the 17th century castle, complete with butler Service and a bagpiper welcome when they arrive that's 50, 000 and good for them. I mean it's.
It bums me out that they have to pay for anything like. Why should they have to pay they're already, rich and famous? Let's just give them more. Let's see what else is in it: a 12 000 celebrity arms liposuction, the title of lord or lady, along with a small plot of land in scotland, 25, 000 worth of home renovations and an assortment of flavor wrapped popcorn packages interesting up to ten thousand dollars worth Of treatments and rejuvenation procedures, a fifteen thousand four night stay for two at the golden door: luxury resort and spa. A small batch of tea gifts set for oprah approved and a 1 200 life coaching session yeah.
You know how they got here: it's because they were just never entitled. That's if you're looking at this and you're thinking, why did they get 140 000 worth of stuff when they're already at the pinnacle of wealth and fame, and i'm gon na bring it back to the fact that you're eating too much goddamn avocado toast? These are the people who deserve it. This is what you get when you're, not entitled the fact that you are not receiving this right now. It shows your entitlement and it's disgusting.
This is what you get when you're not entitled. I want to make that very very clear. Rob is right, you are wrong and it makes a lot of sense that we are giving the most gaudy psychologically warped people on this planet even more for free. If you have any issues with this, you are simply not thinking straight moving on to something that has literally nothing to do with money or finances or stocks at all, but i just thought it was cool, so i wanted to share it with all of you.
Hubble space telescope spots, most distant star ever seen, rumor has it the only thing more distant is the location of my currently. My current super real girlfriend. Record-Setting discovery comes decades after earth. Orbiting observatory began scanning the cosmos.
The hubble space telescope has snapped a record-setting image, showing the most distant individual star ever seen, the nasa and, according to nasa said yesterday wednesday. The star lies: 12.9 billion light years from earth and formed less than a billion years after the big bang that created the universe some 13.8 billion years ago to anyone who is very, very religious and thinks that the planet was created less than that ago, science disagrees With you, the star is believed to be about 50 times as massive as the sun and millions of times brighter. So it's a big one. It's a doozy! It's definitely a big one that we found, apparently on the other side of the universe and for any of those who may have an inquiring mind. Yes, i have reached out to nasa to ask if i could use the hubble space telescope to locate the whereabouts of my super super completely real girlfriend. Now, let's talk about the overall market. The s p 500 currently has a short interest of 17.4 percent and the short interest on the tech, heavy nasdaq tracked by the qs currently at 13.5. And then, if we're looking at the small cap sector, the russell 2000 tracked by iwm, which remember amc's the biggest equity within it is 35.
Now speaking of amc. Just so, you know the short interest, just above 20 there's already a borrow of 323 000 shares and a net return of 500 000. Today, the cost to borrow is still very low. The utilization's still maxed out and shares on loan 132 mill in terms of gamestop.
The short interest is 23 cost to borrow coming down to 11.. Recently we saw it spike up to 20 utilization's still 100 and shares on loan 21.4 million. Those are just your quick metrics. Remember these top ones that i have highlighted right now.
Don't change throughout the day only these ones get live, updates the ones you see on the top they are processed when the market closes and then they're presented to us around 7 7 30, when the market's about to open am et uh. So these, just you know, do not change throughout the day. It's this little rectangle right here that does now. I do want to talk about how i still feel good about this trade.
This gap-fill play to the high from march 28th of 455 91. I still think this is a very, very valid play. I just think the market has gotten a little bit too hot and it's very reasonable to take a breather, especially because we're also at this, like kind of important level of resistance, so i'll be looking for this plane and honestly, if it keeps coming down, you might Be able to watch 446 so potentially another 10 there something to keep in the back of your mind. If you're looking for some sort of overall market play in terms of the queues it's gon na be similar, you have another gap, fill and the same thing with the russell 2000, almost gap-filled yesterday, but just a little bit off.
Actually, it looks like no, no okay, we're not going to be filling this gap when we open today, it's at 206 21, so i'll be paying attention to that in terms of the overall markets amc. We went over this in the update video yesterday. Our closest support is right: around 24 uh, i would say 24, but plus or minus - about 30 cents, between this trend line and this level of resistance, which ideally will turn into support in terms of gme. Our closest level is 160 technically 159 and then from there you could probably watch the region around 150. It's a key psychological level and a little bit of a technical level. So those are the levels on amc and gme. I want to talk about mullen because mullen had a very, very good. Second, half yesterday we got a gap phil looking for the breakout and the hold of about 320 and then i'll be watching the high threes around 375.
above that mullen could really really get going in spa. In fact, speaking of mullen, let's look up and see what its current numbers are mullen mullen mullen mullen mullen mullen short interest: 16 percent cost to borrow 15 utilization 100 shares on loan 43 million. So definitely has the capability to do some crazy stuff, especially on a push above 375 slash four dollars. Frge justin.
You know i have no position on mullen. I have no position on frge uh, it's just. They were crazy, crazy movers yesterday. So i just thought: hey i'd call them out to you, especially for some of those of you watching who like to be a little bit more of active traders.
That's pretty much your rundown for this morning. I hope you're feeling a little bit more prepped for the day. I don't my bias for today is pretty neutral. Yesterday was obviously a bit more of a bearish day.
I don't know if that was enough for the technicals to cool off, or maybe we need an additional day of it, so i'm not really feeling biased one way or the other on the s. P. 500. I'm still looking for that gap fill i'm definitely looking for that gap phil, but in terms of some of these individual equities um we ran, ran, ran.
Then i felt like okay. It was time to take a breather now. The question is: was yesterday's action enough of a breather so because of that? I'm feeling pretty neutral on the action today, but also we might be seeing some weird stuff as we get closer to the end of the day, because it is the last day of the quarter, and it's also the day before we get the next unemployment report. So there might be some jockeying for position in the final two hours of training for the day, so i just wanted to call that out to everyone and with that being said, the bell is about to go ding ding, ding, ding matt.
I sacrificed my dignity by deciding to trade on wall street back when wendy's with pelosi. It's not worth it shout out. Irish. Did you lock in your gains for jamie? No, because i still have time till expiration.
I mine don't expire this week or even next week. That's like, i purposely went out of my way to give myself more time, um for things like this. This concept of getting these deep out of the money calls with short expiration. You have to appreciate how high risk of a play that type is um. I think when things especially in amc and g, i mean get moving, there's a big group of people who maybe are new to the world of options, and they hear about other people, making crazy crazy games and they get enticed into tr like making that trade. When maybe they don't want to appreciate how much risk they're actually taking on ding and ding, the casino is open, oh brother, oh brother or brother or brother, let's see if we could do this thing, let's see, let's see, let's see, how are we going to go On the market today, let's wait. Those first 10, 20 30 minutes see how things are shaking out see if we can identify any obvious trends. Uh lisa, i watched a recap video last night and was over my head plus.
You spoke too fast. Were you saying that folks were buying selling gme on monday we're not seeing true values? No, no, no um! I was saying that it was not many shorts that covered on monday for amc or jimmy. We just didn't see that many shares being returned yesterday, which is telling me that not many shorts covered on monday great shirt, positive vibes, very positive. I i appreciate that gary.
What do you think about voyager's cease and desist orders saying they were offering and selling securities in form of voyager urn accounts? Blockfi has been through something like this too miles i'll, be covering that more in the crypto stream great question, but right now the lack of clarity is kind of making it tough to be a crypto brokerage exchange. Hey matt cute shirt. What's going on travis we're getting the the summer moon gang shirts out there we got ta just get a little bit more seasonal how's, my hair. Today, it's important it's important.
I can't wear a shirt with like this without having solid, solid hair. Oh gme waking up a little bit uh just so you know on the upside. I would love to see amc i'll. Just show it to you right here.
Uh would love to see the recapture of 27 and in terms of gme we'd love to see actually the. If we hold 160 i'm watching 182 and then we could be setting up for a cup and handle which would be sick, so excited for seoul watch. Your video from yesterday soul is ripping still almost pushing 130 souls doing very, very well so congrats to anyone who is a solana investor, congrats, congrats congrats, it's looking good, i'm almost back at my cost basis, my cost basis. I think it's just below like 140..
Let's throw up mullen just because i know people are very interested in mullen is long on ice shanties. You know it. You know what you know, what you know it all right. Are we gon na get this gap fill on the spy? I feel positive about that feeling good um, and that was something we called out yesterday.
Remember all those active trades, especially if you maybe you can't like watch all the stream or you miss some stuff. All that is posted on locals, which is in the description of the video uh people are calling out. Hymc is that doing well today, it is up nine percent. How did it do yesterday, red day yesterday, maybe getting its own cup and handle scenario potentially, but it is up right now, all right. What's the market going to be doing today, making some decisions everyone's kind of on the sidelines being like all right? What is the trend? What's going on um? I guess they don't uh amc and jimmy are looking good. I mean jimmy just went green amc has about another 50 cents to go. The high 25s gme just went right again. This is the red green line.
That's where gme running into a little bit of resistance right now, tesla needs to gather tesla, does have a downside gap, fill which i can put right here, 1022. Basically, so that to me would be a viable play. You could be a little bit more aggressive and take it if it breaks below 1073, or you could be a little bit more conservative and take it if it breaks below 1053 and your risk on this would obviously be the recent high. This is actually a very, very well-defined trade.
If you want to play tesla back to the downside, your risk is 1115.. Your target is 1021.. You can enter it wherever you want, but this is your risk reward setup, and then you just ask yourself: is that appropriate? For you, uh gme, definitely green amc about to go green 20, more cents, interesting amc and jimmy showing a little bit of life in the first five minutes here, while the spy is just kind of barcoding, lg vn is up 50. Today, what's going on there, uh did it had to have some sort of announcement a biotech place, so i just i'm not the best at biotech it had.
It wasn't an earning so they had to have some sort of other positive announcement, but this one's looking good uh. I don't like chasing, i specifically don't like chasing on biotech, but if you're already in it, like massive congratulations like ride, that trend for sure all right looks like we're going for that gap fell on the spy a little bit earlier today, hey! What's going on shan, crushing it crushing it crushing it matt? What does the rsi look like for amc and jimmy? I mean that's going to be dependent on the time frame you're in uh, i would say i'm assuming you're asking for a bit of a larger time frame. We got a little bit too a little bit too excited, and this is definitely in the overbought territory. Oh wait: i still had my black pool my dark pool, my blackpool, my uh dark pool.
Examples from yesterday hang on all right, so right here, just overbought. This is technically overbought, and this is what we're talking about of like when it needs to take a breather. This type of thing cannot be sustained, uh, obviously i'm on the daily chart, but you could check it out. It will change because it's only taking the recent x amount of bars into account. So, even here on the two-hour chart you can see we were overbought for like basically two and a half days of training. We were just simply the engines. The rocket engines were just too hot, had to take a breather and that's what we're seeing right now. Uh mullen looking good the level to watch on mullen is up here at 375.
uh the spy coming down. Remember the target on this gap. Fill is right here, 455 91, easy peasy, lemon squeezies. You can choose to play that.
However, you want, you could get spy puts, you could short the spot. You could get go long on uv xy. You could get uv xy calls, you could do it on the futures market. Uh.
There's many many ways to play. It's just you. As long as you have confidence in the particular direction or something there are many dir like straight up assets and derivative products that you can then utilize, however, you want, you could sell, call credit spreads, you could buy, put debit spreads like there's so many ways. You could do it, so that's all up to you mullen, i don't think mullen squeezing quite yet if it starts to push 375 and especially pushes forward that's where it gets interesting for mullin.
How do volatility halts affect amc and jamie's outlook since it cuts momentum um? I don't think it impacts. Its out looks because, like when i hear outlooks, i think a little bit more medium and longer term. It does kill the momentum in the short term but understand the momentum that it killed on monday was bearish momentum. It was a downside.
Halt amc and gme sold off uh gme was particularly 8.3 percent. I forget what amc's was but remember those halted because they were going down as it had stopped that very short-term bearish momentum. So um definitely understand like what side of momentum we're talking about here and the hall itself was not in my si, in my opinion, insidious or manipulative what the craziness was was the first 35 milliseconds after the halt, and we saw what was happening with edgex and I covered that in like full full detail in yesterday's stream and then also in the update video yesterday, so the hall itself that doesn't really bother me. It's what happened right when the halt started, where i think someone needs to take a look into it.
Did they halt on the way up? First, no, they didn't the halt on monday was a downside, halt them for them losing too much of like a share value monday. We had a hall up, followed by how thou know we didn't uh, amc and jimmy were both halted once on monday, both of them separately once and it was a downside halt. There was not two halts on monday. I think halts have the ability to bring eyes and possibly hype to stock 100 percent uh 100 due and it's just a question - was an upside hall, a downside hall.
How are people going to react to it? It's really. You never know how you're going to come out of this scenario. I've seen halts end and we you rip higher i've seen hall to end and you like completely plummet, there's not a like common rule of thumb, of a reaction to a halt. The most, i would argue that, like statistically, what i see is halts beget other halts. It's they do it to try to stop volatility and, like just calm things down, but then so many people have a training alert set up where they ever they get alert. Whenever there's a halt and as soon as it unhauls there's more traders and then you get more volatility and then you get another halt again uh. So it's a really really crazy scenario: amc pretty sure amc had an upside hall. It did not have an upside haul.
Uh i'm like 100 positive, i mean we, we watched it in real time. Both amc and jimmy gmes was like a couple seconds earlier than amc had one, and once again this is my like i mean we could look at it right now. I mean i'll show it to you hang on. Let me is this going to load.
Let me get rid of this. Apparently i can't get rid of it uh. I could show you the halts right now uh. So this is monday march 29th and you can see right on the bottom of the screen.
We go from 9 36 to 9 42. The halt was right here. It was a downside hall. Amc was trading down, we got halted the same with gme i'll, go back and show you that one right here once again, monday march 29th, you're gon na see a jump in time because it wasn't training.
We go from 9 36 to 9 42, even though we're on the three minute. The halt was right here. Obviously, gme was trading down. It was a downside.
Halt like there was only one halt for both of these equities on monday, and it was a downside halt. So if you were gon na argue about it killing momentum, it killed bearish momentum, but once again the halt itself is not the craziness to me and even like you have to read that right up from dave lauer, it's a crazy, crazy thing. The craziness that like regulators, need to look into and needs to get fixed is what happened in the first 35 milliseconds after the halt and that's what led to people getting the alerts on their phone that their deep out of the money calls were actually in the Money and it's really an infrastructure issue not only with sip s-i-p, but also just really you're, seeing the rebates of retail brokers, their limit, buys and limit cells are being sold to edgex. So the way your order flow could be sold to a market maker, that's known as payment for order flow.
In the same vein of thought, you have rebates, which is when you have retail orders, their limit buys and limits sells being sold to the likes of edgex, which is in exchange. So, basically, if an exchange is paying, it's called a rebate. If a market maker is paying, it's called a payment for order flow roy miller, the halt was not on tuesday. The hall was on monday. Wasn't it am i like losing my days? Okay, no, it was tuesday, but it was the 29th sorry. I just. I thought the 29th was a monday um. I obviously haven't had enough cappuccino today, but it was the 29th which it was tuesday, the 29th sorry for miss speaking it wasn't monday, the 29th.
It was tuesday the 29th. My apologies! That's why you got to drink your cappuccino a little bit faster in the morning, because you guys are on the ball uh robin hood. Won't, let me buy frge options, tinfoil hat too tight um. What's it saying like? What's the error, does it just not have options, or is it like, particularly that brokerage? Let me see, let me double check something uh trade.
Let me see if it's on think or swim. Frge, no frge just doesn't have options so uh. In that particular scenario. Yeah.
Your tin, foil hat, was a little bit too tight, but frg not all equities have options. Uh, there's only options. If there's enough demand for that derivatives, market and frge just started trading within the past week. Uh the spac went live last week, so it kind of makes sense that it doesn't have options, yet they did just add options or more options on both mulln and hymc.
Do you drink instant cappuccino? No, i have one of those like nespresso machine thingies, with like the fancy pods and all that stuff. What's up matt hope your eath is still cooking, counselor murray. You know whenever i think about ethereum and eth. I always think about you.
But yes, i mean you know, i'm rocking with it, because all of mine is locked up in the beacon contract like mine is just all like. 95 of my east is just staked, so i'm i'm, even if i wanted to touch it, which i wouldn't i can't anyway. I can't wait to exit this market after amc, it's corrupt for me to put my money into atomic jack. I would legitimately argue whether you guys have extra capital right now or, if you're thinking about something to do with capital.
Later, that's when you get into like okay, like where's, a good place like to park your money, and i really do think that people should keep a portion of their money in the market, even if it's just the s p. 500, just betting on the overall market. In terms of your like, not a short-term trade, but i'm saying like long-term, the market goes up um. I think you should look at crypto and depending on how big the moas is real estate property, just proper, proper, proper diversification.
Now, obviously, that's my opinion. I'm no financial advisor nothing, i do or say should ever be construed as a buy, sell or hold signal, but i really think especially with if you have extra capital right now or when, like ideally fingers crossed, you come into one day of a crazy amount. I think good diversification between the overall market, whether you want the spy, the qs, the russell, maybe all three a little bit of crypto the core ones. Like that, i like to look at what i consider blue chip. Crypto um. I think the top crypto is kind of equivalent to like blue chip stocks, like apple microsoft, those types of ones, that's how i think of basically bitcoin ethereum solana, like kind of a similar, in my mind, um. I really think crypto is one of the easiest long-term homes. I'm talking multiple decades out.
It is, in my mind a smart bet and the way i think of it is i'll either be horrifically right or horrifically wrong. Uh, the chance of crypto trading at the levels. They're at right now, one or two decades out: it's not high at all: it's either gon na be near zero or sky high. I will put all of my money in freaking cash.
You should not put your money in cash, no, no! No! No! No! No! No do not like you, loot, you're, like the purchasing power every single year, every single decade of the usd is going down down down, you're literally losing money. If you keep money in cash, um you're, basically just getting eaten alive by inflation. I don't think it's a smart move to keep your money in cash. What broker would you use to create a portfolio for your young children? I don't actually know.
Can anyone in chat help out with that? That's a great question, but maybe any of these people who've created like a longer term account for their children. Uh is has there? Is there one? That's like easiest to do that i've never attempted to do it myself, uh gme, coming up to that support at 159. The spy came down a little bit barcoding and then we have amc at its support just below 24. So, let's see if this can burn or turn around, if aim sees ssr who's selling ssr is not for selling it.
For shorting ssr is literally short, sale restriction. So people can still sell it, as in longs can sell it, but you can't short it when you're on ssr, unless it's an uptick like the price, has to be going upward for you to short it when you're on ssr, it's referred to as the uptick rule, But ssr does not stop selling. It stops, shorting, which shorting is a type of a position, but it's obviously you're creating a position when you go short while when you're selling along you're getting out of a position but ssr does not stop longs from getting out. It stops shorts from making a short position in a downward move.
So, for example, even though we're on ssr this movement uh in what minutes three to four shorts could have entered right here, because it was technically moving upward. Why did we go up nine dollars on monday? Did someone at citadel fall asleep at the wheel uh just a lot of? In my opinion, uh fomo buying a lot of people just got excited and that led to other people getting excited and it just very quickly. Uh kept ripping upward. I don't think many shorts cover it well, actually, in the data we can see that not many shorts covered on monday.
Also, there is uh, i'm seeing this more and more, but there's confusion around the terminology of shorts covering closing and buying which all of those are synonymous synonymous. A short to get out of their position remember to create a position they sell stock so to get out of the position they have to buy it back when they do that. It's also referred to as the short covering it's also referred to them as closing their position, a short covering, closing and buying they're. All the literal exact same thing. It's just. We have, i guess, three pieces of terminology that explain the exact same scenario. If you say short is covering, you mean that a short is closing, and you mean that the short is buying whatever that equity or etf is um. I think they're, like i saw um like some actually in my youtube comments and a little bit on reddit of people trying to say that they're different of like you can cover, but not close or you can close.
But you can't cut like they're the exact same thing like if you're doing it you're doing it. They all mean the exact same thing. I, like td, ameritrade for holding slash retirement and custodial con accounts for children, so it sounds like td ameritrade uh. According to cdub.
I appreciate you sharing that what broker do you use for option that doesn't participate in payment for order flow? You? If you are trading options, you are you can't avoid payment for order flow? I don't know of a single options. Broker that doesn't do payment for order flow. Unfortunately, and that's just because remember it's a whole different market, you're you're, not trading on the equities market, anymore, you're trading, on a new, it's a derivatives market um. So it's not being facilitated on what you would think of.
As like a normal like lit exchange, that's where equities are going, it's a whole different market. I have to say this question is rising from people spreading around some details of citadel, having recorded, put in call options and claiming they have short and call positions. They've never claimed to have a short position, because what i'm referring to here is shorts are not reported in this world right now. The way regulation is set up.
If you are controlling, if you have over 100 million dollars in assets under management, every single quarter, you have to do what's referred to as a 13 f filing, which is where you say: okay in the last quarter, when the quarter ended. What did you have in terms of your long positions? Your calls and your puts not your shorts shorts - do not have to be reported on an individual basis. Shorts have to be reported in aggregate, and that's why every single two weeks we get the exchange. Like short interest report, but on an individual basis, if you go to fintel like i mean we could go to citadel right now, uh sit adele advisors llc if this loads citadel ken griffin, all right, we'll come to this low low, low low low load, low load. So how do we do history? So if you look at this, so they file a 13f. You do this every single quarter and it's obviously going to be a little bit delayed. But what you see here is you're going to see long positions, call positions, put positions, but short positions do not have to be reported on an individual basis in terms of like public view, obviously on individual basis. They get them from all of them and they aggregate that together and then that's how we get short interest numbers.
But in terms of like even this, like um, you have the spy, they have a put a call and they probably have a position. But we short positions are not reported. Why are they not reported because it's a stupid rule that somehow someone lobbied for them to be like hey? We don't want to report that and like okay sounds good, but they've also never publicly said that they were short. I mean that people are claiming, puts our shorts rather than actually just hedging.
As a hedge fund i mean owning a put. It definitely is a short position. It's a bearish position, but if you buy puts it doesn't have the same impact on the stock as going short, if you buy a put, it's not increasing short interest. Like short interest comes from actually selling stock remember puts are a derivative product.
They are based on what a stock is or isn't doing, and it's turn time until expiration, it's volatility and a myriad of other things like that's what all those greek values are, but if you just buy a put or if you just buy a call, it's not.
Blackrock and avocado toast comments. Brilliantly hilarious π
what minute of the video shows Ortex- Unusual Whales that puts list? I can't find it but I saw it on the livestream
How You Make Cheese π§?
,-Amazon is a fantastic investment with a lucrative AWS and advertising ($30 billion and growing at 32%).
_ Facebook is a fantastic investment with a P/E 14 and $40b in profits that grows at 34%.
– Google is a fantastic profitable company with a lot of moat.
– Microsoft is a fantastic safe company with a lucrative Azure cloud and growing fast.
– Apple is a safe company that held its ground while other stocks fell.
Muln and Nile are same lame game.
Well I missed the show, catching it on doubletime now. Cheerz Matt & Gang!