Foreign store last night. You know me, hard day's worth of work. it's Thursday but I was thinking it was Friday I I come in all hot and heavy I'm like whoa like I kick open the door. not really because it's the sliding in the door and I'm like hey what up sing Maria's store Works Person happy happy Friday they're like Mr Coors um you've done this before but it's actually a Thursday But yeah, we have your sangria okay sick dude thanks and I'm walking out with my completely real girlfriend and I'm having a completely real conversation with my completely real girlfriend and she's like how'd your day go and I'm like oh, the market wasn't the best.

People still think I have control over the market and they take out their anger and their losses, particularly on me and she's like oh well, maybe tomorrow will be better I was like maybe it will and I'm walking through the parking lot. This is how I walk. Well there's two of us because it was with my completely real girlfriend so it's kind of like my apologies. um wake up Buttercup, We have quite the day ahead of us TGIF it is Friday June 2nd the only Friday June 2nd we get this year if you don't believe me fact check me but this is in fact the only Friday June 2nd will we will be getting this entire year if you want another June 2nd that we can hang out, you're gonna have to wait until next year to do so folks.

Can I blow your mind right now? Can I blow your mind right now. This is the only Friday June 2nd, we get this entire year and we're choosing to spend it together. Think about how awesome that is just across the board. Think about how awesome that absolutely is.

Folks folks, folks, we're about to get the unemployment report. You're probably thinking yourself: I Forget everything Matt said yesterday I Wonder why he's streaming early today and the answer to that is the unemployment report comes out in a mere three minutes. Of course, you can fully expect volatility Mark is already up this morning if you've checked out pre-market If you were bullish, you're feeling pretty good about yourself right now. And that's because the Senate seems to have passed their version of what's going on.

So in terms of the debt ceiling negotiations, we're good with the house. We'll go with the Senate which means it can be passed on over to Biden. That's leading into some optimism. As a lot of people very easily predicted, that's not some big brain assessment of the situation whatsoever.

It's just an easy call out. A very, very easy call out. So we're looking good right now. The next thing we have to consider is what's going on with the unemployment report.

which I would argue in a larger situation, a larger, higher level view very much is more about the Federal Reserve the Fomc meeting, inflation and all that good jazz. So here's the plan: we're going to be listening to the uninflation report. The uninflation, The unemployment report. The uninflation.

We do do need some uninflation reports. What we have to do is listen to what's going on with the unemployment report coming out at 8 30. now we have a minute and a half left. we're going to be listening to that watch the market react.

Then I'm going to rip through everything you need to know about the Senate and the debt ceiling. Then we have to go over some earnings reports, then we have to go over some seasonality. Then we have to go over my current positions and we'll do some technical breakdowns and then have some other odd stories that I just found this morning that I want to share with all of you because hey, some of them are interesting and others might spark something in your mind that ideally leads to a money making opportunity. So that's the plan it is.

Friday I Hope you have your Friday shirt on. uh you're you're almost Miami tiger floral shirt because it is a Friday And obviously we need to celebrate the beautiful Fridays in our life. So that's the plan. I Hope you guys are cool with it.

Let me see if we can track down Mr Rick Cintelli. You know it's a good day when you get to listen to Rick like very truly uh always always always get excited for it. So when he when he comes up on screen you guys know what to do. You guys know what to do when he comes up on screen.

But let's do this thing. oh brother. Ian is 190 000 I Think the distribution should skew toward the upside when I look at ADP When I look at the the claims most likely coming in higher than expected because of the ADP made from yesterday. That's my expectation.

but let's see. All right Rick Uh, you got 20 seconds for your pre and then you give us the number brother and on the weaker side, give us a barn burner earnings. I Think this report's going to give us some earnings 51 on month over month I Think that's an anomaly year over year. We've revised out some lower reads of 4.2 I Think that's the threshold to pay attention to dog.

Let's go for the main jobs report and boy, it certainly wasn't on the weak side. 339 000, 339, 000 non-farm payrolls 339. January when we're at 472 000. private payrolls Hot Tamale today Team: the unemployment Rate: 3.7 3.7 There is a surprise last time we saw three points.

This hurts. It hurts being so right to find it. It hurts so you have to go back. It feels so good of last year that's quite a ways back.

Now let's look at those earnings. Barn Burner Up Point: It's a barn burner up 0.3 and we've had many of them. That is the lowest month since the lowest one in February when it went Tuesday You could always trust them right to give you the good info. Three percent coming right down to that threshold I believe is important at 4.2 4.3 equals March and that is the lowest level going on already June of 21..

add another one on for the list of 10 drops. look at the work week average hourly work week 34.3 Now give it to us Rick a big Miss It's down 110 from what we were expecting and down 110 from the rear view mirror. But trust me, it makes a bit of a difference, especially if you're looking at things like productivity. Finally, labor force participation rate Unchanged 62.6 It's what we expected we have this month.

How does 62.6 compare well? The lowest read we've had of late has been 62.3 and that was I'm sorry I take that back. Uh, the best rate that we've had is 62.6 and we want to pay attention to that so we're equaling how many times. And finally, the underemployment rate known as U6 is 6.7 It ticked up a bit. We've had Uh, 6.8 is The High Ground for this year just getting all these numbers.

The low ground for this year: Interest rates. Well, they've moved a bit higher, but not much. 339 versus 190. how are they that way? their job as an analyst.

We said last, Friday at 380 at 380. Okay, and we were at 361.. Imagine if you were that wrong in your job as much as I thought they would on the non-farm number, maybe many are paying attention to those earnings. I'd like to hear what the panel thinks.

yeah I Want to just get to Mike The Futures are right where they were Mike Santoli Is it possible Ken Can't we just have a strong environment? And maybe Rick Santelli Santelli's in the Santolia. We live in a perfect world where we don't have to hate. uh, a good job? Feels like they have competitive cannoli businesses. Certainly conceivable, but you want to see it in the numbers.

So I think the Market's not going to assume that's what we have you. You know you could depends on what you want to focus on in this number. There were upward revisions as well to Prior months, so it's clearly so. Unemployment Uh, explain why that's bullish in a second participation which is good.

good news and then moderation. One of the reasons the market maybe is not alarmed by the big headline number. thinking it's going to bring a much more hawkish fed is because of all the Preparatory Uh, Speech work that the FED has done this week trying to de-link this exact Uh Jobs report from what they're going to do in a couple of weeks. but we'll see how it plays through the day.

I Want to get to Wendy because you got what you wanted Wendy you got a one, but you just got it three times. I am surprised and I Don't think that these kinds of numbers are can be consistent with stable and low inflation. We just don't have the population growth or the structural changes in labor force participation to support these kinds of employment gains. Markets popping, barn burner folks, it's a freaking bird burner always.

Tyler This is a really interesting report because on the one hand, the the payrolls number was much stronger than expected. But on the other hand, the increase in the unemployment rate is much worse than expected and very significant. As you know, usually when we Rise by half a point from the lowest unemployment rate, it means the economy is going into recession. We just Rose three tenths in a month and we're up three or four tenths.

no three tens now from the low. So we're going there. If this isn't revised away, the increase in the unemployment rate is potentially more meaningful than even the continued uh' strength we're seeing in the payroll site. Can you just comment on that? So we've seen a few instances in the past couple of years.

There's been a lot of disagreements. awkward surveys Historically I would have placed more weight on the establishment survey, but as you said, the household survey is showing an increase in the unemployment rate. Uh, a slight increase in in the civilian labor force, but also an increase in those not in the labor force, and a big decline in employed so that the household survey is showing a lot of weakness. The Establishment Survey showing a lot of strength.

The one caution I would I would introduce sorry to interrupt here I Just want to explain that I Think I'm a couple poor fashion decisions away from looking exactly like this guy. I Mean here, let me stand right under it just so you guys could kind of tee us up, but how's he kind of look? Is it more like you guys see it? Are you guys seeing it is a couple couple bad decisions away and that could be me deuce on the establishment survey front. Is it? sorry for that break turning point. So we saw this in 2021 that they were under counting initially under counting a lot of jobs that he has a cat though, because that's the kind of guy that they would give a cat to.

Also missed the turning point at the upper end of the of a cycle because there's that firm attrition from the sample. so coming down a little bit. Just got some some upward revisions to recent months, but the general pattern over the past few months in the establishment survey has been downward revisions. So I I Think we have to be on the lookout for some downward revisions on the establishment side.

Steve Did the FED funds flip? Now is it 70? hike? Thirty percent not hike early No. 30 70. they're not really seeing any movement at all. Why would they change it? What a silly question brother.

Interesting movement in July July was, uh, unemployment ticked up. they're feeling good. We know they wanted it. It looks like um, yeah, it's still 60 probability of a July hike? This is a very weird number I I Almost.

Look, where are we going with this? Get up to 339 by looking at the number. There's all these little bits of job increases, but no big thing. The only big thing in there is this big jump in Uh Healthcare and social assistance at 77 000. But when you go through it with these sort of big things I've been used to seeing Oh, it was a hundred and fifty thousand on Leisure and Hospitality but it wasn't 150 000, it was.

hang on. I'll give you that number real quickly. It was um, uh, 31 000 which is nothing okay. it was 18 000 on local government X education.

it was um, uh, give you the construction number. uh, manufacturing was up 11. construction up 15. you get the point 15, 10, 20.

somehow that adds up to 339 by the way, with a bunch of negatives in there average hourly 4.3 going on. Probably not the most stoked about that, which is what, as they would say, percentage inconsistent with their target of two percent uh, increases. but I think inflation a small number Joe So um I think there's this shows strength of a job market that won't quit. But there's a little bit of something in here that's asking me that there's something going on I like to like the half full uh, Where's Becky and Andrew this morning did they just think I think take him to the curb.

When you said they already, they decided this needs to be the richest. It really does. So maybe maybe they'll still Skip and we still have a strong labor. Mart Wouldn't that be what we want? We I mean we do want a strong labor market.

We just don't want them to keep hiking. Well, we want it in the abstract. We want a sustainably market coming right back down to those right before the announcements. Now, they don't feel that, uh, that real impetus to do that at the moment.

So yes, I do think that you know, Uh, they drained a little bit of the suspense out of this number. but it is interesting and it also is that eye of the beholder effect. Just like the results number was, we get the points you know, need their breakdown you don't need? We only care about Rick's breakdown. So here's a little look you see at the situation: the Spy holding just below 424 which for my astute viewers, you know that means that sets up a downside.

Gap fill at Market Open Specifically, we are trading right here. just below four to four. There's a downside: Gap filled to yesterday's high at 42292. Now for me, in my position: I I don't necessarily want to see it today I Know the odds are high that we do see it today, but I have spy calls so I'd prefer that we just open and just only seeing green bars like if I were Mayor Lord of the stock market today I would literally make a legal any red bars.

That's how much I want this bullish situation to pull out I Don't think it will though. I Mean there is that downside Gaffel, Four, two, two, Nine two. But on the flip side, we do have an upside gap for till 425.5 so that could get a little interesting. We're basically opening roughly in the middle of, uh, upside capital.

And the downside gaffe though. So no matter what we do, it sounds like we're getting some form of a gaffle today. Now you the next logical question off of this one would probably be. but Matt What do you think is more logical? What do you think is more likely what do you think is in reality what's going to play out today? You know? obviously I'm going to be biased I have a bullish position I have calls on spy Tesla uh, Nvidia and Netflix I'm very bullish right now.

So yeah I don't know if I'm like the best party to ask because yes I just wanted to go up. But if we're gonna be realistic, yes, we know the odds of Gap those are high. But then today's even more complicated because we have the upside capital and we have the downside Capital both of which are roughly the same distance away depending on when that Bell finally goes dingy Ding ding ding. Now if you're joining in right now, first of all, you're late.

Demerit, demerit, demerit the market. Uh, As we were waiting for the news, there was a little bit of volatility, then we ended up popping. Then we sold down right to these exponential moving averages and it looks like we're trying to find support at roughly 4250 in the Futures Market I Hope it finds support. The jobs came in way higher than expected 339 000 versus 190 000 expected.

And then also, the unemployment report kicked upward. They were expecting 3.5 percent, we got 3.7 So right now, yes, I'm telling you, unemployment went up and that's somehow bullish. You might be thinking that I'm a crazy person and you're not necessarily wrong on that. but in this particular scenario, it's not the most far out thesis, because remember what the Central Bank in America and really globally what they're trying to pull off right now is slowing down inflation? they want to go.

Whoa brother, Let's just take a little bit of a chill pill. So that's what the world's attempting to do right now. and a Telltale sign of like maybe getting there. maybe getting like your handle on inflation is for unemployment to go up.

Actually, in fact, we know from many Fed members, they're essentially attempting to get unemployment to go up by a full percent from 3.5 up to 4.5 Which sucks for some people because it means you're losing a job. But they're focusing on the greater economy saying we need to get inflation down because there could be greater problems if we don't get control of inflation. So that is why the market is reacting favorably bullishly. Because maybe just maybe it means what the FED has been doing, drone pal and his cronies.

Maybe it means what they're doing is actually working Now in terms of the Fed and the next Fomc meeting. which remember, we get the results on Wednesday June 14th. So what a week and a half from now? Uh, yeah, not next week. Halfway through the next week, the whole thing going into this week was okay.

There's a greater chance than not that they're going to give us another 25 bips rate hike. Remember, as they're jacking interest rates, it puts more downward pressure on the economy. Not good for the stock market, but it's the whole point of it is to ease inflation, we're still too high. We're still two and a half x 3X Roughly depending on the time of where we need to be, our Target's two percent I Think the most recent reading wasn't like four, five, four, seven, something like that.

So we're like two and a half times where we should be. So going into this week there was a greater chance than not that we were getting a Fed another 25 bips 0.25 going from five percent to the 5.25 But then really? Tuesday Wednesday the FED governor and some of the FED presidents on at the various locations we're talking about. Hey, we get it. We're probably gonna have to raise interest rates again, but we think we might take a breather in June This was a counter narrative to what Bollard was saying to what Barkin was saying.

And then all of a sudden the market started to price that in. But they didn't just price that in, they priced in the optimism of getting this debt ceiling situation figured out. they're like oh wow, We got through the house rules committee, we got it through the house, then went to the Senate This, the Senate passed it with uh, like just blazing fast speed. So that's part of the reason why we're up.

So right now there's multiple I would argue medium-sized catalysts that are going in the favor of the bulls. and there's one other one that I think is happening today. in the Tldr. On that seasonally, today is a very bullish day and I'll give you all the details on that in just a second.

So now we have a couple things all going in the way that I would argue. Do favor the Bulls you have seasonality, which I'm about to go over. You have the political uncertainty of default being removed, which is good. Obviously, we don't want to default and now we have another sign that just maybe just maybe the FED might be able to pull off.

What they're attempting to pull off is in all three of those situations. Are they guaranteed no. Are they right? Are they like are? Can we bet the whole Farm non-farm payrolls? That's funny? Um, can we vet the whole Farm on the fact that today is going to be explosive? Right now it's going to be explosive? Eh, not really. I would argue that it's always, um, a Bayesian probability problem.

Like there's going to be a certain percentage chance that it goes the way that we think it should. and then obviously there's another leftover percentage chance of it does the exact opposite. Because don't forget, we do have the news. The the trading concept of buy.

the rumors sell the news. Right now, a lot of the news is out there. We have the news. We clearly have the news.

We know that the senate pass it which the debt ceiling negotiations. The Senate has passed it. The house has passed, so it's going on to the president. We now have the unemployment number.

it's out. So the next big thing for everyone to pay attention to is the Fed is inflation. That's the next big thing that will most likely be moving the market to the upside or to the downside, especially with the Fomc meeting coming up on June 14th. Technically, it starts on the 13th, but it's a two-day meeting.

We get the results at 2 p.m on Wednesday June 14th. Uh, but the reason I'm bringing up Tuesday the 13th is actually we get another inflation report that day, the CPI report, the Consumer Price Index report which the media cares a lot more about, but the FED. According to them, they care a lot more about the Pce report, the Personal Consumption Expenditure report, And they're very similar, but there are some nuanced differences of like what basically the Pce report. It's a little bit more timely, and it's a little bit more Broad in terms of the data that they bring into the actual report.

So allegedly, if you believe the Fed, that's why they like that they weigh that report slightly more heavily. Obviously, they're still going to pay attention to the CPI report. But anyway, as we are kicking off the month of June which from a seasonal perspective, remember, it's a little bit up, a little down, a little up. Then going into the end of the month, there's the sell-off and then from the end of June till the end of July it's an endless bullish party.

They're from a seasonal perspective. There's real. There's no real reason to be bearish in the month of July Just so everyone knows in terms of seasonality. So to kick off the month of June and to conclude this week, yes, I am biased towards the bullish side.

You guys know all my positions like you well. you know I have calls on the spy on Tesla on Netflix and on Nvidia I'm looking to lock in a lot of that today. of course I would love to lock that in today. We're getting two levels of resistance and this is the concept of scaling.

In scaling out, you don't have to go all in and all out at once. So uh, right before that, Bell goes dingety ding ding ding today I will let you know my particular plans and where I'm at on my positions. The only one I'm particularly unhappy with is NVIDIA and of course that's the one that's actually been selling off if it was above this trillion dollar. Mark Basically, if Nvidia gets above 410 415 today, there's a chance that I can get out without like taking that big of a loss.

but that's a big if. that is a big big if. But anyway, let me give you the rundown of what we need to know for today: Dow Futures gained 200 points as Senate passes debt ceiling bill made jobs tops expectations or is that the new title of today? Yeah, the market is up because we're taking out the uncertainty of the default and obviously with the job situation it came in at 339, the expectation was 190. but I would actually argue the true bullish Catalyst in that report was the fact that unemployment went up and I Know that's counter-intuitive to what you think, but the fact that unemployment went up maybe just maybe inflation really is coming down in the way that was predicted by the government and particularly the Fed.

and most specifically Jerome Powell himself. Senators grapple for a deal to pass a debt pact before U.S default. So this was the big news as of yesterday. and if you look at the market yesterday, you know that we kind of went rippity skippity doodle all day.

We had a little bit of a lull at 10 and then from there it ripped pretty much beeline all the way till 3 15 and then there was a dip into close. Just probably people locking in some of their profits didn't want to take on the battle of the uncertainty of what's going to happen overnight what's going to happen with the unemployment report? But basically we went from 417 all the way up to 423. It was a ripper of a day. Any day that the Spy is gaining six dollars, you know the Bulls are in control and obviously vice versa.

If we lose six dollars, you know that the Bears are in control, but people were kind of front running the idea that yeah, our government's going to get it figured out because you might believe that the Market's uh, perfectly efficient. It's not. Obviously, it's not I Don't think anyone could legitimately tell you that they thought we were going to default and then yet as the odds are increasing that we won't default, the Market's going up, clearly expressing to you that our Market is not an efficient place. There are advantages you could take on things that the odds are in your favor.

It's not going to be 100. There's nothing ever going to be guaranteed. but this was the big deal as of yesterday and the concern if there was quote unquote concern was more so of will some of the Senators slow down the process with like a kind of a two-fold issue one related to military spending and then the other one related to what's going on with student loan payment because like, there's another political backdrop there and we could talk about that in a second if you want to. But my main point here is that there were two reasons that, like, um, maybe are some of the Senators going to intentionally slow down the process? Well, we found out later last night that no, they're not and actually we're looking pretty freaking good.

Senate passes Bill to raise debt ceiling preventing first ever U.S default. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceilings, sending it to President Joe Biden's that's the U.S will prevent its first ever debt default. Um, so we've never defaulted before I Highly doubt we were going to default this time and yet the market is still super super surprised about it. regardless.

Biden will be able to sign it today. most likely today. most likely maybe tomorrow. I'm thinking today though, he's expected to sign it Friday and address the nation at 7 pm.

ET today. So if you want to listen to body, unfortunately, I won't be able to stream this because it's Friday and I want to go enjoy in the summer so I won't be able to stream this and I don't think many of you are going to be listening to it. But hey, if you're hardcore about this thing and you want to know what Biden's saying, he is expected to sign it today and it makes sense. Like why would he like drag his feet on that But then he's doing like a live press conference at 7 pm.

ET Tonight No one gets everything they want in a negotiation. But make no mistake, this bipartisan agreement is a big win for our economy and the American people it. It's kind of like create the problem, solve the solution type of a mantra. Um, it.

I Feel like they're taking almost a marketing tactic out of like Apple's Playbook Like, let's create the problem such as a new charger and then we'll sell the solution a new charger for the new charging port. That's what happened here. They created the problem and now they're like, all right, they're like gonna snap their arms, patting themselves on the back for fixing the problem that they created. So hey, any of you interested in business entrepreneurship? maybe you're currently in school studying business? That's probably one of the best things we could all know is create the problem, sell the solution.

So that's what's going on there. And obviously the Market's really, really liking it. Right now, the Dow, the S P and the NASDAQ are green green oil going up to 72. recently oil took a pretty big hit.

So I I do have a little Side Story just for the people paying attention to Exxon Chevron oxy of why. So we're going to get into that. But what I want you to know and I alluded to this before is this is the equity curve for the Futures Market of buying at open selling at close today. Now when I say today.

remember the Futures market for today for Friday technically June 2nd, it actually opened up at 6 00 PM last night and uh, the opening I marked it out right here. Oh, Market's dropping a little bit right now. right here. this white vertical line so roughly around uh, 4231.75 that was the open and obviously we are about 15 points above that right now.

which if you did, one Es contract is about 750. Uh, so this was technically the open I Show you the Futures data, the S P 500 futures data, and I'm only I Guess like harping on that right now just to drive home that there is a different Market open for futures than there is for the equities Market Obviously, the equities Market opens at 9 30 a.m but for that same session, the Futures Market, at least for the S P 500 contract opens up at 6 00 PM the day before because it's on what's referred to as the Globex session. So if you're looking to mimic this as closely as possible uh, on the Futures market with the Spy maybe you're like I don't want to trade features I'd rather trade the Spy Well, you can do so, but the closest way you could do it would be right at Market close the night before, just so everyone knows. But anyway, today, it absurdly favors the Bulls.

Out of the past 25 years, the Bulls have won 80 percent of the time. Four out of every five years, over the past 25 years, the Bulls have won. This day, The profit factor is one of the highest profit factors I've seen in seasonality testing of 14.53 as in every dollar spent in the bullish, Direction has returned 14.53 So the bias on today from a seasonal perspective is not just bullish, it is very bullish. Once again, this is on testing the most recent 25 years worth of S P 500 futures data.

So is it perfect? No, it's 80. So 20 of the time is wrong. 80 percent of the time is right. You got to look at this as a large system, not as an individual trade.

Trading should be looked at as a series of trades. No individual trade. an individual trade is not going to make you, but an individual trade can definitely blow up your account. which is a roundabout way for me to say yeah, you always got to think of your risk to reward management.

I'm betting bullish on today because I know the seasonality of today I Know that there's going to be some optimism with what's going on with the debt ceiling Bill getting to Biden and I guess I was taking on the risk of the unemployment report, but as of now it seems like it's fine. Like the market is coming down a little bit, but if anything, we're just kind of now bouncing off of these exponential moving averages. Like we came down a little bit. We popped back up and now we're just right in the middle.

So uh, I'm feeling good. Obviously nothing's guaranteed that's the market. There's always just like a certain probability that I could blow up in your face, but as of right now, it feels as if it's going to be very fun. Very bullish.

Friday But obviously let's just wait till the Bell goes. Ding ding ding ding. Now in terms of oil, oil is looking really good and here's for my oil. Traders out there for the people who are trading.

Black Gold The thing that made the Beverly hillbilly show OPEC Plus prepares for weekend meeting after after. Saudi warns speculators to watch out. So the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia basically got mad to find out that there's a large, like larger I guess uh, short biases in the oil market and the guy like literally straight up said watch out like what? how Wild is that? OPEC Plus ministers will meet to determine their next oil production policy. Step on June 4th in Vienna So Sunday well maybe our Saturday night just because of the time zone.

but I want you to know that they're meeting this weekend? They faced a market rattle by Supply volatility, demand, uncertainty, and a perspective. uh, prospective recession. probably gonna happen. but I would argue more mild than anything else.

Public signals have been conflicting, following solitary energy Ministry Prince that's a pretty sick name Abdulazi Abdul As is Abdulaziz Abdulaziz. Abdul Abdulaziz Abdulaziz bin Salam Abdullahs has been all right. Let's just see if we can really pin this one down. Usually we don't even try, but we have so much we have so much extra time today that why not? Abdulaziz pronouncenames.com I Feel like I was pretty close I Feel like I was pretty freaking close Abdulaziz? that's a pretty sick name that is actually pretty.

I I Know Abdulaziz Bin Salaam late May morning that oil speculators could face further pain ahead. So they're playing a little bit of a back and forth game, but the most recent one was literally. he said watch out referring to the oil shorts which makes me feel like it could get a little bit of fun. I'm still in my Oxy position in my long-term account I've been in it for months and I'm basically looking for oil to pop.

Thus far, it hasn't been looking the best, but my buddy Warren and I are continually buying Oxy and Oxy. Um, between the two of us, between Warren Buffett and myself, we own just over 20 percent of Occidental Petroleum Um, you can fact check that if you want, but between Warren Buffett and Matt cores, we represent about a one-fifth ownership stake in Occidental Petroleum. So obviously we are betting, uh, pretty heavily on it going up, up and away. Other things that you need to know about, more specifically, is earning.

So we got: Broadcom: Lululemon Mongodb charge Point uh Sentinel One: Let's see if I could remember how this all played out Lulu Crushed it. Broadcom: kind of going the way of C3 AI of good numbers, but the future guidance weren't blowout numbers. so the Market's not that happy because the Stock's already been ripping. So much so.

Broadcom: uh, it technically be. but down Lululemon beat. Definitely up Mongodb. Pretty sure that one's up charge Point slightly down and I think Sentinel one is the one that's getting absolutely destroyed I think uh, its earnings were horrific and I think it's getting absolutely nailed and then five below.

The last time I checked, it was slightly up. so that's it. No earnings before the Market opens tomorrow. Uh, we're kind of done with earnings for the week and really earnings season This time around, you get four earnings Seasons a year.

This one's essentially done so there's a couple more. but I don't think any of major interests to really any of us. Speaking of: C3 AI Billionaire Tom Siebel faces tumult at C3ai as investor lawsuit, short sellers question metric. so I'm out of the C3a no I still have those calls, but they're essentially worthless like and I'm betting on maybe a miracle happening, but they're running into additional issues and I just want to put this out there for any of you who are like, maybe balls deep into C3 AI of just to be careful here: an investor lawsuit against these three AI says CEO Tom Siebel and other Executives misrepresented a partnership with Baker Hughes ahead of the company's 2020 IPO An exclusive interview with CNBC Siebel denied allegations and touted his company's AI technology.

They're up a lot this year and there's a considerable short interest and it's a higher cost of Ro and the utilization is maxed out I Just wanted to let you know about this lawsuit I Try to play them for their earnings. Their earnings were lackluster. It didn't like it was a lotto ticket. The lotto ticket did not pay.

but maybe for those of you who are invested in the stock I Just want you to be aware of this. Please Please Please Be aware that if this ends up coming to fruition or proven to be right, uh, AI might just get absolutely murked. Five things to note before the stock Market Bell goes dingy ding ding ding today Friday June 2nd strong start. Yeah, it's a strong start.

We're looking good this week, folks. Where do we start out? Tuesday So on Friday Uh, Tuesday We opened up at 4 22, then we came all the way down to 416. then we pushed all the way back up to 422 and now we're sitting at 4 25 424. excuse me I wish we were sitting at 425.

we're sitting at 424.. So overall, we're putting in a green week and just for those of you, maybe keeping count year to date. As of yesterday's close, the market was up 9.74 pretty much all because of the quote-unquote Magnificent Magnificent Seven Almost all of the S P 500s gains this year are because of like I said, the Magnificent Seven which is the top tech stocks what are they? Apple Tesla Nvidia meta Microsoft Amazon and Google those are the seven. How crazy would that been If I just had two more fingers pop up? You guys would have lost your mind over here.

But anyway, it's essentially seven companies pushing the market. And then if you strip those seven out of the S P 500 which is 500 companies, the market would only be of one percent. How insane is that? The Market's up. Let's just call it 10.

A essentially nine of that percent is due to the Magnificent Seven which I think on average are up like 35 ish percent plus or minus 50 or five percent there. Um, but it's all because of very very small group. But hey, if you're in that small group, it's you're You're definitely enjoying it Avoiding default. Pass the house Past the Senate Going to Biden today, most likely signing it today.

President Biden Will be addressing the nation at 7 pm ET today. Jobs report: It came out way higher than expected. 339 was the number they're expecting. 190 000 unemployment went up to 3.7 The expectation was 3.5 which you could argue is bad because more people are unemployed and especially with the labor market staying at the same, the participation rate staying constant at 60.2.6 Telling you some people are losing their job.

at least net. Maybe not gross, but net like if you net it out, someone has to be losing their job. obviously. So that course protocol.

Bad economic reports. Good for the stock market because it just means that maybe what the Fed's doing with inflation is actually working itself out. Walmart Cuts Waste we could talk about Walmart a little bit later and inflation check. Okay, we have been talking about this a lot.

A lot A lot. I Think you guys know exactly what's going on there. So there are some other stories I want to get into such as the Money in Wall Street and apparently uh I'm the person behind the curve because I guess everyone and their brother is playing pickleball and I'm not and I guess my question to you is should I play Pickleball But before we get into that checking in on the market, this is the three minute in the Futures market. so we dropped that first.

just a little bit of a ShakeOut then we popped. then we came down. We built a base off the exponential moving averages the 20, the 50, and 100. It doesn't really matter I just want to share that with all of you.

More so red, white and blue, uh, slow, medium fast, all stacked in the right way for an upward movement and that's exactly what we're getting right now. Like I said, there is a dual Gap fill situation this morning. you have up to 425.50 but then also down to basically 423. We're currently trading at 424.42.

if we get up to 425.50 which is an upside Gap fill. Technically, there's still the downside Gap though, but I'll be taking some of my profits there I Just want to let you know what I'm thinking about in my own positions here. Let me switch this over so you can see what's happening in my own positions. I currently have Netflix calls for July 21st not June This is a little bit farther out and that's why the strike price is 450.

As the market closed yesterday, they were up 11 I had spy calls going into Market close June 9th 420. Obviously, they're deeply in the money. as of yesterday's close, they were up 67 I'm expecting it open today for them to be up 90 100 I have Nvidia calls which is a very bad trade I hate the trade I don't know what I did uh well I know what I did I made a bad trade and then I tried to double down to save myself and now it's just costing me thousands and thousands of dollars. But I've Nvidia 435s for June 9th I hate that trade and I'm just trying to get out with the least damage possible.

Uh, I have the AI lotto ticket which is down 88. It was a lotto ticket either it was gonna hit it did or not and this one didn't hit so I'm not too worried about that. and then I have Tesla calls which is interesting because it's been very much moving into my favor. It's roughly break even as of yesterday's close.

But what's interesting about Tesla here is it's a victim of IV Crush So even though it's been trending in my favor, I'm break even I even though I got in at 202 and I had to ride it dip down to 197. I got in at 202. it's now at 210 and I was well what was the close yesterday? Let me be fair, it was at 207.50 yesterday. So as in from the moment I got it till close it was up five dollars and my call options were Break Even I'm really harping on this just because when it comes to options, you need to consider your volatility Crush you need to consider your Theta your Delta your time till expiration.

You need to consider the Greek values because this is a good example of even quote unquote being right. It thus far hasn't paid I got in at 202, it's trading at it, traded at 207.50 to close and I was break even I was right to the tune of five dollars and I was Break Even which I just want I guess I'm stating that to really express some of the the craziness I suppose of when like options and the other things that need to be considered than just oh I think it's going up or down, you need to consider volatility and you need to consider time till expiration I will drive that point home every single time. So Target I want you to know in case you missed the wrap-up stream from yesterday which if you missed it demerit. but anyway Target I had the puts on it and it started to bounce.

it got above my wrist level so I locked it in and also if my thesis was bullish today Target we saw running yesterday because the overall Market was running in. my thesis was that the overall Market will keep running today I was like well hang on let me lock in my 30 gain On Target and I'll just revisit it later on next week when there's some weakness in the market and things start to turn back over. so I have no target position as of now. I will re-enter puts when there's some weakness but I took all the profits On Target from yesterday just want to keep you all updated and if you want to be updated and you're like well, hang on I can't catch every stream, blah blah blah that type of a thing join up with the locals Community it's pinned at the top of chat.

it's in the description of the video Maccors.locals.com That's where I post all the important things that might happen, especially when I'm not streaming. So for example, today the stream is going to go to 11 A.M There's a good chance that I have to like manage my position after 11AM somewhere between 11 A.M and 4pm today. So all that type of stuff that happens especially when I'm not streaming will happen on locals. So if you want to know, like especially if I have to conclude Today's Show and I still have positions, Well, all the Management's going to be posted on there I'll be like hey, I'm looking for this I got out here.

this is what? maybe I enter a new play, but join up with the Locals Community Macwords.locals.com It's pinned to the top of chat. it's in the description of the video. If you're watching on rumbles, there's a giant red button that says locals join it there's a free option and then there's the premium version that's either ten dollars a month or a hundred dollars for a year. I Mean you saw it with Target itself yesterday I posted that that made a thousand dollars that paid for 10 years of the service.

The Spy position I'm in right now as of yesterday's close was up 3.5 K It's probably gonna be up 5K when the Market opens today. My point is is that I intentionally priced it very cheaply so you don't feel the financial pressure of it. and I very much believe that one of these trades could pay for like decades worth of the cost of this service. Um, it.

The price is going to go up when I successfully get it connected to Discord but that seems like it's going to take a little bit of time. Uh, so if you want to get grandfathered into a cheaper rate I Just want you to know that that's a thing. Macross.locals.com pin to the top of chat in the description of the video and that's where I'm gonna do all my important updates. but also other members of the community are updating their trades, their thoughts, their opinions.

they can ask their questions. so uh, just trying to foster a really exciting training community that one of these days will be more of a there's cool things coming I Don't want to let the cat out of the bag, but I did want to let you know about that hang on A Lot of people are messaging me something about the Spy today spy testing wedge resistance following this morning's economic data. Keep an eye on the pre-market High Well let's see. let's see.

Let's see. Yeah, things are looking good right now, but let's just remember that bullish pushes do not last forever eventually. I Know this might sound crazy. we're gonna burn Bend back over I mean I would argue that everything's elevated and cost right now and it's probably just a matter of time before we take a bit of a breather.

I Don't know if it's gonna happen today. Maybe the shorts are entering a little too early? Maybe they're going to get blown out? Maybe there's going to be Fomo. Maybe we get a blow off top like exhaustion type of a setup. There's a lot of possibilities for today, which is why I'll probably just engage in trailing stop losses if I can.

Ride it. Ride it. Ride it, ride it, And if there's a pullback, Okay, great. I'm not attempting to top tick here.

I'm more attempting to ride the trend and just get the meat of the move. This, especially when you're doing Trend following type of Trades you just want the meat of the move. If it, if your goal is to bottom ticket, top tick, you're going to be chasing an impossibilities. There are rooms of fancy schmancy, people with all the pedigrees.

like a room with PhD people who've tried to work on that problem and it's just not possible if your goal is to bottom tick and top, take your day trading your swing, trading your investing if you do it. Congrats, But understand it's pure luck. What you can control is your risk management, your risk to reward management, and your your goal should be getting the meat of the move. If you can get 50, 60, 70 of whatever trend on whatever time frame you're paying attention to, that's a win.

Great. You're locking your money and you move on to the next one. especially if the reward is a multiple of the risk. like that's when you're really hitting your stride.

But anyway, just wanted to share that with all of you. So we do have about 20 minutes now until the Market opens. The Futures Market is looking strong. We did not hit the pre-market high, but we got close.

We're definitely repping some strength right Now if you look at crypto. Bit of a balance Bitcoin Recaptured 27 000 Ethereum just below 1900. So yes, we have crypto representing some strength U.S Defense Secretary Austin and China's Minister of National Defense spoke briefly in Singapore uh, five Stacks and remark Holdings Russian Black Seaport of Taman to suspend LPG don't know what that means Elon Musk Dogecoin Insider Lawsuit Yeah, if you guys didn't hear this, Elon's getting uh, class action lawsuit or what kind of lawsuit is it? Uh, blah blah blah screw nasty faces have proposed 258 million class action lawsuit accusing him of Insider training and manipulating the meme cryptocurrency. Dogecoin I Don't know how you could be an Insider Trader to Doge because it's not a company with like proprietary like earnings announcements or anything like that.

So it's interesting. and I know there's like a different legal definition and some of the legal people in here will technically Insider training. Is this that the other thing? Um, but on the surface level, it does seem uniquely humorous to me of what's going on there. Now we have two options.

Uh, there are some stories I want to go over such as hedge funds and the type of money that some of the top Traders are making. I Also want to talk a little bit about pickleball, so it's up to you. We could either talk about that now or do you want to do some chart review? We could do some daily chart review. The major things like major support resistance levels kind of ripped through maybe 20 different stocks to see if we can get an idea of maybe uh, proper entries and exits for more of like medium term swing trades.

So do you want to do chart review or do you want to do the super rich Traders slash pickleball a sport that I should be getting into? uh, chart us Charter Charter Charts All right. A lot of enthusiasm for charting, so let's kick this one off with the Spy As of now, we're turning at 424.35 Downside: Gap fill to 422.92 Upside Gaps of to 425.50 I Would not mind today. First of all, I do want to point out that we are potentially gapping up above this trend line that is a little wild. Obviously, these commonly break to the downside when you have one these upward wedges they do commonly break to the downside, but not always.

I'm not going to sit here and tell you it has to get rejected. We've seen other examples of this. Um, I'm watching this upside gaffle from there. If things start to really cook, we're talking 428 to 4 30.

Like really, 428 to 432 is another big region. So if things get wild Bonkers if we get this upside Gap fill at 425.50 and things just look strong and we keep going. Yes, my next watch would be 428 to 432. I Believe the likelihood of that happening today is Slim I Think we've moved quite a bit already and I don't know if really everything going on would justify that, but hey, sometimes, remember what's the saying that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent so there are in short time frames specifically in individual day in intraday movement.

Wild Things Can Happen That you could be like I Just don't think that's statistically possible, but yep, it can still play out. So I want to let you know of my levels but I also want to let you know that by the time we get above 425.50 if we start pushing 428 for 34 32, it just seems a little bit of just like where's all the Firepower coming from the Bulls So I think if anything, I'm more likely expecting some sort of push that gets rejected and then smacked back down to this bottom trend line. That's my rough prediction. Let's just say, over the next week or two for today, individually, well, anything can happen on in the intraday basis, we're going to open up halfway in between this Gap region.

I Don't know which one's going to get filled. Maybe both get filled today for all I know. but I am swinging calls into the open? probably not cutting? Maybe I Will me? It depends. I'm very much watching the 425 50 line and the 423 line, so that's it for the overall.

Market Uh, kind of re-enter this uh as we were starting to push back up and we've documented it all in terms of the cues you could have got in yesterday like it was a little bit. Chasey but your risk wasn't too bad. Risking 346, you enter at 351 and even then I I Don't really love that risk to reward, but you're up in pre-market uh, slightly up. but let's see if we can get above and hold above on the cues.

Let me make this yellow just so it makes a bit more sense. I Don't know why I have all these. that's a that's more confusing than anything, but you can see this has just been rippity skippity Doo dot it just simply has not stopped. Uh so I'd be afraid to enter right now just because of it being overextended.

unless you have a risk that you can really adhere to really adhere to. Next up, we have Apple. Apple. Apple is about two dollars away from an all-time high currently trading at 181 in pre-market the all-time high is closer to 183 flat 180.

I'm seeing 182.94 and it's somewhere in the 183s that Apple officially becomes a three trillion dollar company so we didn't actually ever hit that before. The all-time high for Apple is 182.94 here. I Can map that out Uh, 182.94 Uh, we might be heading for that today. and then somewhere in the 183s once again is where it hits a three trillion dollar market cap.

Similar to the Spy, This seems like a lot of over extension to me. If you've been riding this wave, congrats, Crush it. Keep writing it. Keep writing it like good for you.

For me though. I I don't have an active trade on it and I feel like I can't take the risk is really far away now from the potential rewards. so if I were in Apple, I would be stoked I'd be riding the momentum. But it's really tough to get me to invest in something to trade something at an all-time high, especially when the closest risk level arguably 176 is kind of far away on a relative basis to the rewards.

So if I was in Apple, I'd be stoked. I'm like great. Let's ride it. Let's ride it.

Let's write it like apples looking good. but I I if anything I'm looking for Apple to get smacked and turn around so I can play The Gap Filter 175.77 or to 167. I've been looking to bet against Apple just because it's so incredibly overextended and I just haven't seen the opportunity. But if I were in it I'd be stoked right now because I'm like great I'm just riding the momentum.

uh up. Next we have let's look at Google uh just going flat. If anything, I'm looking for the breakdown of 122 and then I'm going to pray it snaps 120 and then from there we have the downside: Target of 113 waiting for my opportunity to bet against Google In terms of Microsoft it's another Runway train like Apple. Uh I don't even know if I'd necessarily bet against this one, you could.

same thesis of downside Capital to 316.50 28160 but it's just been too strong. So if you are going to bet against it, you're going to want to use the recent high as your risk because if it starts to go above it, you don't want to get blown out. You have to keep your losses to a paper cut type of a scenario. So I'm invested in Microsoft I Just want to be clear about this: I think I'm invested in Apple as well in my long-term account.

So I've just been riding this one riding this one, but I haven't really been actively training it. Uh, now we have. Netflix Netflix has been a watch for a while and I think you could actually see it better on the weekly chart here. I was looking for at this cup and handle on Netflix cup handle I was looking for the breakout to hold above 400.

We obviously got that and then on a different note I was wondering if it would kind of get above this. So not only do we see a technical breakout, we saw a technical breakout of the line, but also the cup and handle. So I Entered with my risk being around uh, ideally 353.55 Technically, that's what I'm risking on the play as it continues in my favor. I'm going to keep moving it up and as quickly as I reasonably can I'm going to move my wrist to break even so it doesn't cost me any money.

but I Want to clarify I'm in Netflix but it's not really that short term. it's July 21st we just started June So I'm giving myself seven to eight weeks for this to try to go up and test for 60. and then from there there is an upside Gap fill all the way to like 506 or something like that. uh, 507 which would obviously be my reach goal.

So yes, I'm long in Netflix I Like the technical breakout of the trend line I like the technical breakout of the cup and handle I'm not the most thrilled about the risk. It's a rather large risk, but also the reward is rather large so the ratio is not bad, but it it's still like kind of considerable. So I just want to let you know that I like Netflix There is a little downside. Gap though maybe this will be my risk 383 I'd Feel a little bit more comfortable with that, but there's a small downside Gap fill on Nflx.

Next up we have Meta Meta Meta Meta The it's just like the little blue pill. The gift that keeps on giving Meta has been Rip City ever since 87, currently trading at 271. there's an upside gaffle on Meta Two two. No, that's not even right.

There's an upside gaffle on Meta all the way to 317. That is crazy. Absolutely crazy. My medium term targets would be 278 289, but if that thing keeps showing Strength 2, 7, 3, 17 would be my target obviously.

I wish I got in somewhere in here like this early-ish May I wish I got in somewhere around 2 40. I didn't and it's run away without me. So you missed the trade. But that's okay.

There's always opportunity in the market if you missed a trade. Don't chase it, just go find a better opportunity that suits the current time. So anyway, Meta's looking good and I if looking at it like Microsoft or apple, if you're going to bet against it, just be very reasonable with your wrist. But obviously these quote unquote Magnificent Seven shown quite a bit of strength.

where are we at with Tesla Tesla I mean I got in on this day I think I got in on Tuesday and it was around 202. I was risking 184 185. then we dipped the next day 195. So I moved my wrist to there and we've been showing strength but as of closed yesterday when Tesla was at 207.52 granted it's at 210 now I was barely break even I was actually slightly red so uh, the victim of like really arguably uh I just volatility Crush uh I had these till June 16th so it's not even June 9th Uh, my first profit taking level was going to be here at 211, which it looks like we're going to tag early this morning at this point.

I Kind of needed to get to the top of this wedge now at 217, so ah, I'm gonna have to pull off some Management on this position but I just it was me not reading the Greeks appropriately. This should be a big money right now. A little bit of mistiming, but more so misjudging the option Shane I Still really like the position I just wish I played it a little bit more astutely so I still think it's gonna pay I Just don't think it's going to pay as big as it could have for such a nice breakout if I just was a little bit more realistic about it. so that's Tesla Let's take a look at Rum.

Uh, Rum has been trending on Twitter I Just think it's interesting. The most recent signing was Mizkiff and I know olinity just got kicked off Twitch so it looks like she will probably most likely be talking to Rumble and Kick and see who gives her a better deal. So there might be some exciting announcements out of Rumble somewhat soon. so watching it.

but really I wanted to break in the hold above 1050 for me to get excited there I know a lot of you are betting against Target I was myself I locked in my profits yesterday I'm looking for a bounce back up to roughly this region. let's just call it 137, 138 and then I want it to look Toppy and come back over. and when it starts to break back down, that's when I will most likely be re-entering My puts, this is just too much of a direct sell-off. I think a some sort of a bounce, maybe even a dead cat bounce is reasonable I'm just looking for that bounce and I didn't want to risk my profits through that balance in case it becomes a legitimate bound.

So I have no target position right now I'm looking for a bounce roughly 135, 136, 137 and then I want to see some weakness and that's yes, when I would re-enter in a roughly the same vein of thought: uh, Budweiser slight bounce, but I mean this one is even worse I think they've lost what like 20 billion dollars or something about that. I mean just getting absolutely murked. Uh I have no position on Budweiser I wish I did maybe the same situation. if there's any bounce that starts to turn back over, might re-enter there and then the risk is just the height of the recent bound.

So well-defined risk. What else do we have going on? Uh, some of you are asking about palantir? uh, it's been ripping ever since its earnings. it's riding the AI wave I would not. Chase I Think it's really silly to chase, but if you already have a position, yeah, write out the momentum.

but even this looks absurdly strong. I There's no aspect of me that would argue this is not representing bullish momentum right now, but that doesn't mean that you get it just because it's representing bullish momentum, just because something's bullish. You also have to ask yourself the risk and right now I don't know I don't really want to risk. You could risk 1382, but it's already moved so much that I would feel better risking somewhere around 12.

And then you have to ask yourself what's the risk reward ratio So if I already had palantir like apple I would be stoked. but there's no way I'm going long at a previous high like I'm not going long at a resistance level when my risk is blown out. So the risk reward here for an active Trader not so good if you just want to be an investor and you're like no I have like a 10-year outlook on palantir 20-year Well, that's a different situation. Understand: there's a massive difference between day trading, swing trading and investing for me, which I would classify myself as a bit more of a swing Trader it's just not optimal right now I Don't see the risk reward I clearly see the momentum, but I should have been in.

really. the day to get in here was uh Wednesday May the 17th because you could have been in around 960 risking nine dollars so you only risk 60 cents and then your first upside Target was at 10 30 but from there it even played out better. So I like palantir what's going on here I like the momentum I simply missed the trade. It's not like I would need some sort of pullback for me to have anything realistic to play off of.

Um AI this one screwed me on their earnings. There's now a lawsuit against the CEO The situation is turning a little bit more sus so uh, if anything, if this represents more weakness I might actually be looking for opportunities to bet against it just in case this lawsuit gets out of and for the company. So basically, if we see a breakdown below 30, I should probably set an alert there. Maybe I'll set an alert at 31.

I need some sort of alert because this could turn into an interesting, uh, downside, like break of a play. So I want to dive a bit more into the lawsuit and figure out what's going on? but if people get scared Away by it. uh yeah, if you enter, maybe a 31 will you collect at 25? Could be a pretty nice trade there. uh, we haven't looked at Nvidia I don't think Nvidia is that for like I said I I need a video? How high did we get? we got to four to like I've just really messed this up I had a beautiful play with the earnings and then I I just got too early to try to fade it and then I got blown out of my fade and then this is where I like doubled down on Revenge training and I bought calls and then I bought calls on the worst day and we came down and then we had an inside.

It's just becoming really messy for me. I just need to uh, manage this when just take the smallest loss possible. But anyway, we're at 401 404 and some changes where it becomes a trillion dollar company if it gets above 402.95 the high from Wednesday I'll feel a little bit more confident. but really