Bulls Are Green, Bears Are Red, Neither Are As Crazy As The Fed
Dumb Money w/ Matt Kohrs
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We figured it out, i don't know what was going on, but hey. Sometimes that's how monday mornings go. I actually had a really funny opening bulls are green bears are red, but neither is crazy as the fed good morning good morning good morning. Well, depending on what time of day it is for you, but hey, let's get ready, because that mark is about to go ding, ding, ding ding in less than 30 minutes and there's so much stuff.

We have to go over. First of all, i hope you had a phenomenal weekend we're back to the grind we're back to a week, hopefully fingers crossed of making money happy valentine's day. If you watch the super bowl, i hope whatever team you were rooting for won aka the rams. I hope you, whatever you were betting on, unlike me, actually ended up paying off because i lost a decent amount of money turns out.

My bets were awful, but uh, more importantly than that, this is about to be a crazy week and that's just thus far been the tone of 2022.. I feel like every single week is saying to the past week hold my beer. You thought you were nuts i'm about to be even more crazy, so what i want to really do this morning before the market does officially open, there's so much. We have to go into and we're going to be doing that full breakdown i'll give you an update on my positions and then from that we could do some technicals, i'm sure all of you are interested in the short answers of amc, jamie, the spy, the cues, The russell so we're going to kind of do that at the end i'll give you a shout out of what earnings to expect, but overall, before the market officially opens.

We have a lot to go into because i am fully expecting massive volatility this week from a macroeconomic standpoint between the fed russia, ukraine, the us here with biden, everything there's so many things going on that can all have a massive, considerable, noteworthy impact on the market, Which means for us we have to pay attention to it to protect our risk, but on top of it, if you're on the right side, this increase in volatility could really really lead to some impressive money making opportunities. So with all that being said, sit down buckle up, strap your socks on, because i'm about to knock them off so very quickly. Just so, you know where we're in pre-market the s p 500 is currently down by 0.2, the russell's down by 0.3 and the nasdaq is down by 0.1. All of them were down a little bit earlier this morning, uh, and then we actually got a little bit of a pump and i'll be going into why in just a second? But this is your quick overview of like okay.

We are drifting slightly down from the low that we actually saw on friday very quickly if we just take a quick sneak peek over here at crypto, we're still at these levels of support, particularly on btc, so 42. Trying to bounce off of that, but i think a lot of this is going to be highly correlated with the nasdaq 100, if you're paying attention to that paying attention to the qsqq so i'll be watching that if the queues can hold or obviously even better go Upward, well, i'm going to look for crypto to also go up, but if the queues end up breaking down and i'll be going over the levels of support and resistance. Well, at that point, i'm thinking that in the short term, crypto could also take a hit, but that i'll go into much more detail on the crypto stream. 2 p.m.
Eastern on the crypto course channel, if you're on rumble you're already good to go all right. So today is valentine's day happy valentine's day, uh the market's about to open and just a quick sneak. Peek, the dow, the s p and the nasdaq are all down, but they're, actually not as down as they were earlier, and we have some interesting developments. One that you might really see right here is the fact that oils come down by about a dollar, and obviously this is strongly related to the current geopolitical situation with russia and ukraine and then finally, yields are up.

They are finally back down two percent uh. I do have questions of how long that will officially last so not only for today, but for the remainder of the week. This is what you need to know. So, on thursday we got the consumer price index report also known as cpi, and this is basically just as a consumer.

How much has the cost is your typical goods gone up? So previously we were expecting an increase of by 0.4, but it came in hot. The inflation was higher than expected, it came in at 0.6 and now year-over-year. As you can see, we are up 7.5. This is a four-decade high level of inflation.

Cpi uh is one very important inflationary gauge that the fed uses to decide its monetary policies and we have another upcoming one and i'll touch on this in just a bit. But tomorrow, tuesday, the day after valentine's day, we get the producer price index. So, basically, the inflation of materials, so these are both very, very important gauges and reports that the fed does use to decide what its policy should be. Basically, in this scenario, because we are at a four decade - high level of inflation and the uk is at a three decade, high level of inflation and many other global powers are seeing an absurd level of inflation.

Well, you got to pay attention to it. It's obviously incredibly important because if it keeps going that way, that's leading to all these central banks being more hawkish, the more hawkish you are. You fight inflation, but it's less accommodative for the overall stock market. It's like kind of a side effect.

Their goal is to fight inflation and a side effect of that is basically stonks going down. So anyway, this report, the cpi report, came out on thursday and pretty much right after that, it was announced that the fed will be having an emergency meeting. So today, at 11 30 it starts. This is a closed board meeting where basically, the topic will be interest rates.

Now this is kind of one of these emergencies. That's not really an emergency. It's like a non-emergency emergency, that's also an emergency, but if you consider it an emergency you're fear-mongering, so it's not exactly a non-emergency, but it's an emergency non-emergency, that's a non-emergency emergency! Yes, that is actually all accurate and the convoluted nature of it is exactly what they want. Do emergency meetings happen yeah, do they happen every single month? Well, no, but it's not one of these things.
It's like we've never heard of it before it's not like the word voldemort. Yes, they do occur and in this particular scenario, could they come out with a surprise interest rate that is theoretically possible? Do i think it's at all likely? No because we do have previous statements from jerome powell, the chairman of the fed, that said, we will not do interest rates until tapering has concluded and we actually have an update from friday that the tapering's not done yet. I know this sounds absurd, but yes, even with a four decade high level of inflation, they are still injecting more money into the overall system, the federal reserve's rate debate and ukraine. Tensions could jolt markets the week ahead and that's exactly what we're doing there's so many things in this particular boiling over pot between the federal reserve.

What's going on with stock markets, what is going on with ukraine and russia, or yeah, uk and russia, and we actually have an update on all that? We have breaking news as of this morning, but before we get to the stuff that's coming out today, you have to know on friday. This is what i'm talking about right here. Look at this between february 14th and march 11th, the desk plans to purchase approximately 20 billion more more, they are still buying. This is so insane.

That's what i'm saying of the title of this video neither are as crazy as the fed folks. They are still putting money into the system and, what's crazy is like a couple minutes ago, we're actually getting breaking news from bullard, a member of the fed from st louis who's, like he's almost dissenting with this it, this is so so wild they're still putting money Into the system, even though our inflation is high - and i just this is beyond me - this is so so crazy and then um, okay, so consumer price index we're gon na. Hopefully this situation that was announced on friday, the fed's meeting today tomorrow right here you have um from feb 10 all right, so you can see right here. They're ending this purchasing on march 11th.

Right here, well check this out the day before march 10th. That's actually the next cpi report. So on thursday we got a cpi report. Tomorrow we get a ppi report and then on friday it was announced that they're still purchasing 20 billion.

So if you fast forward, that's ending right around the next cpi report, which is right before the next official fed meeting, where we are expecting a rate hike um. Just so, you know the based on the futures market, the odds of basically seeing a higher and higher interest rate hike. They continue to increase and a lot of people are looking at the point now, probably by june or july, we'll be at one percent and right now we're at zero right. Nada, we're at zilch we're at nothin um, so most likely they're gon na give us a rate hike like the odds of a march rate hike just assume it's gon na happen um, but the speed that we're gon na see at after that is they're going to Try to end tapering most likely this 20 bill purchase that we're seeing right here.
Uh will be the last one if they go beyond that like this is already insane if they continue past that, like we're seeing the craziest inflation, if they choose to inflate it more, that's just asking for so much trouble, but anyway, like it, looks like that around March 10th march 11th, we're going to be getting some interesting information because ideally they should stop the purchasing we're going to get the next cpi report and then right after that, we have the next official fed meeting where we're gon na get a rate hike announcement and The question is just how severe is it gon na be and then to make it all much more complicated, don't forget about russia and ukraine. So last week on friday, i believe it was initially reported by pbs that tensions were boiling over and it looked like something was gon na happen and then pot, biden and putin spoke on saturday and the rumor mill is saying it didn't go that well, so we Got reports like this sullivan says russia could launch ukraine invasion essentially at any time. Basically, russia has 130 000 soldiers on the border, and things are looking crazy, but as of this morning, it got really interesting, and this is actually why we saw a little bit of bullishness a little bit of a pop in pre-market. Russia's lawmakers agree to seek putin's opinion on proposed resolution calling for recognition of two breakaway regions in eastern ukraine as independent states.

You might be like okay. What does that mean? Well, this is where it actually starts to get interesting right here. Russia's foreign minister lavrov tells putin responses from eu and nato to russian security proposals have not been satisfactory. Russia's lavrov says we can see a way to move forward with talks, so this one was actually pretty bullish, as in hang on we're still open to a discussion.

We might not lead to like an actual conflict right here. Russia's lavrov says indefinite talks are not possible, but there's always a chance for an agreement. Putin said all right in response to lavrov's proposal. So right there it sounds like hang on.

There might be more of like a diplomatic way to take care of it, and this stuff all came out about an hour ago and, as you can see in the market, if i pull up the 15 minute, this is exactly when we started to get a little Bit of a pop, and on top of it that's actually when you started to see oil come down in price because, like the tensions were not as high so people like that and then, as you can see in this chart, not only did we get a pop. Well then, all of a sudden we started to see some red and you might be like well hang on wait, that's good news. It sounds like we're not going to have conflict. Well, i guess people are looking for a very red valentine's day, because bullard a fed member, the one from st louis, was on tv this morning and he started saying some comments that were pretty crazy.
Big picture is inflation is much higher than expected. Inflation higher is going to produce like prompt the fed to be more hawkish, so that's going to produce a sell-off in the stonk market, so a little bit crazy there and i was like okay. He just said that one statement just to get it out there, but it it didn't, stop bullard feedback is supply chain issues may last into 2023, and then he started going on about this other stuff. He was like.

We should have been more hawkish from the start. In retrospect, we bought too many assets. It was absurdly absurdly hawkish bullard says the fed needs to front low tightening, because inflation is accelerating, and then he went on to say the first phase of quantitative tightening won't be that painful, and i just like had to tweet out liar liar pants on fire, because, As soon as we get into this hawkish decision of going from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening, it's gon na be painful when they go this hawkish there's not gon na be, in my opinion, in my non-financial advice, non-legal opinion how in the world could this be good For the market, because recently, we've only been going sky high, because the federal reserve was backing everything, and this still comes down to like my main issue with how this has been, i guess relayed to the entire retail public sector. They're, like it's transitory, don't worry about it.

What at first, we're told not to worry about inflation, then we're told that it's transitory then we're saying i think you guys are overreacting to this word and they're like gaslighting us and changing the definition of transitory in real time and then they're just saying uh. Maybe we shouldn't use that word: let's retire it and now they're, just apparently saying whatever they want on tv. It is crazy. So that's the situation from the federal reserve also a quick update of what's going on in geopolitical land, and i just want to give you more of, like the mathematical update of we actually from a seasonal perspective over the past.

What two three decades of information on the s? P 500 - we're kind of in this mid feb push, so i just want to like the seasonality, have to play out. Absolutely not i'm just doing my best to convey everything from the fed to geopolitical stuff to the statistics of seasonality, but we're kind of right here in a nice mid-feb push, that is the seasonality. So definitely something worthwhile to consider now more specific. For this particular week, we're getting to the end of earnings season, but there's still some important ones.
For example, we do have a whole host of hotels, including marriott, i believe, hilton's on the list. Uh, we also have some tech plays. We have shopify, we have nvidia palantir, roku, walmart's gon na be important one draftkings, i'm sure they're gon na have some impressive numbers from the super bowl of the amount of people that did officially place a bet. So overall uh there are some important ones.

I just wanted to call out like specifics. I know we're talking about macroeconomics and obviously they will have an influence on individual companies. It's never a bad idea to pay attention to crocs some of the comfy issues that we possibly have out there airbnb. So if you want to take a quick screenshot of this, they are obviously things that can influence these individual stocks beyond the prevailing, headwinds and tailwinds of the overall market.

So just wanted to quickly share that, but to really sum all this up this upcoming week because of the things going on from a macroeconomic perspective, expect extreme volatility. Please protect your downside. This is a phase of capital preservation, like any of these things, depending on how they break could prompt like huge jolts. You got to pay attention to the bigger picture this particular week because man, oh man, are there a lot of things going on and obviously stick to your training plan protect your downside, but if you're on the right side with high volatility, does potentially come some very Nice money-making opportunities, so with that, i hope that you absolutely crush it all right.

Let's just hop into this uh like very, very short-term stuff futures are steady after comments from russia's top diplomat. We already went over all that fed's bullard says our credibility is on the line to deal with inflation. It's definitely on the line, and this guy is very, very flip-floppy uh. We had wholesale inflation.

That is going to be the ppi coming out tomorrow, retail sales data. That's on thursday, and on thursday we also get jobless claims uh russian fm urges more talks with west amid ukraine tensions. That's exactly why we saw a little bit of a pop and things are calming down, but now the fed's saying their things, but anyway, maybe we'll get some development on that key us, canada bridge reopens as ottawa protests persist. This is the only thing we really haven't touched on, so for those of you who are following this particular narrative, it looks like an important bridge did re-open now very quickly, not related to the market, but i just wanted to shout this out.

Cups, late td lifts rams over bengals 23 to 20 in super bowl, so hey, if you're from la. If you're a rams, fan. Congratulations to you uh. If you're a bangles fan it was.
It was very close for me personally. I don't follow either of those teams too, specifically, i did end up betting quite a bit on separate bets that were all related to the success of the bengals. Obviously it didn't play out well, but i just found out a couple minutes ago that my completely real girlfriend actually bet quite a bit like she took the opposite of me, like whatever i did. She kind of bet um the opposite in support of the rams which i just found out and, as you can tell i'm still digesting all of that also related to the world of sports.

Here's the if you're, i don't know i know, there's a lot of the viewership is tanking uh for the olympics this year, uh, but just so you know updated metal count. The us is currently in third and also a special shout out to sean white. He has officially ended his competitive snowboarding career and i just grew up watching that guy, so this past week, just so you know this was a couple days ago: um it was his last competitive run and man, oh man, an absolute goat, an absolute legend. So shout out to sean white there and congratulations on the very, very awesome career hang on.

Let me get out of all of this now and then we could do the short interest and some chart review just so we are all on top of those numbers. So right here the s p. 500. The short interest actually recently dropped we're now at 16.7 the qs has been dropping that's down to 12.8 and then the russell did drop, but it's still noteworthy still very high.

41. That's iwm, but what's interesting is even though this is the highest short interest at the end of last week. The russell 2000 is what performed the best. So i just want to call out that, like kind of disconnect there, the fact that we're seeing a noteworthy drop in the spy in the queues in terms of its short interest and then the russell, the one that thursday and friday actually like, did pretty well and Was like leaning the charge in terms of at least relative to these three indices actually has the highest short interest um.

Just while we're here - because i know a lot of you - want these numbers - amc short interest - 21.7 utilization, 100 cost to borrow 1.5 shares on loan 123, with an estimated 111 million bet against amc in terms of gme uh short interest. It's real! It's not the highest! We've seen about a year ago or a year and a month ago, 13 months ago, uh. This was incredibly high over 100, but recently at one point, it actually bottomed out at eight nine and now we're definitely seeing another upswing. 22 utilization 100 cost to borrow 3.6 shares on loan 18.67 million with an estimated short interest of 14.22.

Now the most recent official reports we have came out on feb 9, but the data was valid as of january 20. 31St. Excuse me, these always are delayed by roughly two weeks at that point. As of january 31st, the share short on gme was 11 million, and the share short on amc was just under 108 million.
Now i want to just bring this up to you. Exchange reported short interest, um there's a lot of confusion in this community of like where this information comes from and they're like wait. It's self-reported, i'm telling you, hedge funds, do not report this data. Fomc mem! No excuse me finra members.

Sorry! I was thinking about the fed, so much finra members report. This fin remember the best way to explain that is basically people who can actually execute trades. So it's not like the date is coming from the hedge fund and the hedge funds. Like saying hey, i have this much short: that's not how it works.

It's finra members who are reporting this uh, so i just want to. I guess, give you all that quick clarification. So let's talk about the charts a little bit and then we can get into some specifics, but here for the uh equities. The major thing i am following is this 200-day moving average, which it looks like we're gapping up right to that we are at the 200-day.

The 200-day, roughly just over 444 444 and a little bit of change. That's what i'm watching! If we break and hold above it, hey short-term, i'm bullish! If we can't break and hold above it, i will remain bearish in either scenario in the former i'll be looking for the breakout of basically 446 and a retraction all the way up to 452. If we can't recapture it well, then i'm looking for a retest of 439 and then from there there is a little bit. I would be paying attention to around 436, but my like larger time frame target, which is a larger short term.

If that makes sense is still 429, that's the s, p 500 and it all comes down to this 200-day moving average in terms of the qs. It actually never got above the 200-day moving average uh. So right here, i'm still closely watching it, i'm watching 350. That's a key psychological level followed by 352 and if we can't hold this, if we continue downward i'm watching 340, but there is some noteworthy support at 343 and like about 50 cents um, like i said, the russell tracked by iwm, which, if you're an amc.

This is a good thing, because amc's the largest, showing within the russell, it's actually been performing the best it tried to break out, couldn't came back down and then officially got that breakout and it's hanging out above 200. Even if you look at its pre-market right now, i'm telling you the russell is actually looking the strongest. So i'm looking for the support at 200 to hold, and hopefully the retest and breakout of 205.. If we can't hold 200, then i'll be watching 197 and some change so those that's.

Your quick update of the spy, the cues, the russell, the three main indices that we're paying attention to in terms of amc. So i'm really liking this higher low kind of a double bottom, but actually better than a double bottom, because we never came back down to the mid 13s and uh about a half yeah mid-13s, so better than a double bottom scenario. Here let me drop the 200-day moving average just so we can see this a little bit more. Clearly, i'm really liking it.
It comes down to this. Can we hold above the low 18s around 1825 holding above that is some strength and then obvious. Clear strength is a breakout of the low 20s. This blows my mind that the spy, the qs and the russell all had a very bad day on friday, and yet amc and jamie were in the green uh in, like a twist of irony, with mainstream media, telling us they're awful and you shouldn't be in them, And why would you do it when the spy of the queues and the russell all vomit, yet amc and jamie are green um? That's that's pretty awesome so once again hold above the low 18s breakout above 20.

um above 20. I would be watching 24. If we can't hold 18, i would then be watching just under 17. in terms of gme very similar chart setup, i'm looking for the breakout of 130.

After that i'd be watching 140.. We have support between 112 115 and then we have some more around 105-ish, but overall, not the exact magnitude, but the chart of amc and jimmy looking pretty similar, pretty correlated, and that's just been exactly what a lot of people have been calling out for. Basically, the past year that type of a thing um, okay, so i know we have about five minutes left and i'm more than happy to look into some other charts, but for the charts that you want me to look into please like shout them out comment it Like where is the demand beyond amc jamie, the spy, the cues, the russell uh? What do you guys want to see today? I know there's some developments in amd. We have nvidia reporting, walmart's reporting, there's been some developments in tesla um.

So let me know what you guys are very interested in. We could do that. Could a a buy his shares back so um. I want to very quickly talk about that if you guys saw like adam aaron's tweet from friday and then my response so, okay.

First of all, uh, i recognized that i could have said it 100 better. I mean it was a tweet during stream, and i responded to him during stream and i just said: okay, that's a very weird way to say it like. What does it mean that you have an interest? Because if you own shares, you would say that you own shares - and i know that he's on - like a grant vesting schedule dependent on his performance. He gets x amount of shares that x amount of time um, and i wanted a little bit more clarification on that of like when do you actually get in totality your 2.3 million shares, because right now in real time, he owns about 200 000 but, like i Said he's on a vesting schedule based on performance? Well um.

He actually responded to me. That's the funny thing about asking questions is sometimes you get answers, so i was able to talk with adam aaron and i got a better idea of what his vesting schedule is. So now, when people ask me on stream of like what's going on because, like every single day, people ask me about his share ownership, and i would say once a week, some journalist or reporter asks me about it. So for me in the position i am, i want to be able to speak confidently with a hundred percent accuracy at all times about very important stuff and the fact that it comes up daily on streams in terms of adam aaron's, stock ownership and weekly with peop.
Reporters and journalists - it's important for me - to have the exact facts of the situation. Hence why we have like the ability to ask questions and that's, like i said the funny thing about questions. Is you get answers? You know i asked him he dm me. I got my answers um and i guess i'm a little bit confused about the community's response, because i had no positive or negative connotation.

If you look at my tweets, i literally just asked the question: if you think it's inappropriate to question people, i mean look at me how many times every single day am. I asked about my there's no problem asking questions. You, like you, should be able to ask questions of anyone if they're a quote unquote like leader in this space like as media, would say it which i still think is like a cringe-worthy thing. But if you have a voice within the space yeah people should be able to ask you questions.

If you're, the ceo of the company that people are investing in, you should be able to ask questions um the day that all of a sudden the mob says you're not allowed to ask questions. That's the day we officially lose so folks. If you think that i'm like gon na bend down to the crowd and not question adam aaron, when i want to question him, what do you mean it's important for me to have the information to share it with all of you to share it with the rest Of the world and um, so i i guess i understand from my standpoint of how it could have been perceived. So i want to offer like a little bit of clarification, but i also want to clarify that, like you should be able to ask questions like at any point, it blows my mind that people like don't want you to ask questions um.

So once again, i'm i feel good because i was able to talk with him, got the answers, and now we can all easily move on with life all right. I see some people asking about prague, prague, prague, prague, 1.76 right now. Um, i'm in uh in the high threes, i believe, is my average uh. Recently we had a nice push off of 112.

Looking for the break above two and then my next target would be around 240.. Prague is still in it. You can see in my public portfolio, it's a long term hold for me if it does squeeze. That's awesome, i'll lock in my gains i'll.

Let it come back down and then i'll buy again, but prague can it squeeze? Yes, am i necessarily betting honest squeeze? No, i'm i'm prepared my i'm mentally prepared to be a long-term holder similar to prague as bbig. Unlike prague, i don't own any bbig currently training at 311. We know we have strong support in the low threes and we're looking for the breakout and the hold above 350 in terms of d-wack d-wack. They once again push back the rollout of their beta version and now we're seeing it slump.
A little bit looks a bit heavy to me if it can't hold 77.78. I would then be looking for this gap fill from january 28th, which is 69.70 once again we're seeing a little bit of bearishness just because they rolled out the beta. I believe it's now late march, um, that's what i would be watching right there on d-wack all right, ding-ding-ding-ding, the casino is open, all right so to give everyone an idea of my personal active positions, the things that could change any single day um. I still have the bear call spread on spy.

I posted that on locals. I mean that one crushing it right now, uh, so very, very happy with that. I have some uv xy calls which i posted on friday. Those are currently up 122, and just so you know the bear call spread with the spy.

That's up 50, so uv xy calls up 122.. The credit spread on the spy is up 50., so both of those are looking very, very good. The other active position i have is in the futures market - and i am, i am short on - one nasdaq futures contract. I bought it on friday and i'm still holding that position on the qs, but actually speaking of which it might be a good idea for me to lock in some of these gains all right, i'm gon na, let it breathe a little bit uh.

I have no problem locking in a position within the first 10, 20. 30 minutes i for myself. I've noticed, like my own trends, that it's better for me to avoid creating a new position in the first 10 20 30 minutes. But i understand also with the volatility of today between the fed russia, ukraine biden and just the craziness of the market right now um.

I might actually even wait a little bit longer to make any decision if the queues keep pushing uh just because the futures market is so absurdly leveraged. I might just choose to lock in those gains, but actually where are we hang on? Let me double check. One thing i need to pull up the futures market over here. I don't get the one thing.

I really don't get about uh training view here. That's the name of the charting platforms. I mean like what you're seeing right now is called trading view. Um hang on is i pay for data, but i think my futures data is still delayed to whatever reason a little bit confused about that, and now it's just not loading.

Let me double check this really quick loading loading loading. I guess it must have had a rough weekend. Is the fed going to give a statement after the meeting today? If yes, can we expect it and um? So we actually don't know uh with the fed meeting today we know it starts at 11 30. But previous meetings, they take two days um with like, and those are the normal scheduled ones.
This one is just we don't have a time frame on it. They might have a statement for us today, maybe tomorrow, maybe the next day um. I can't find any information on like when the expected update from this closed door meeting will actually occur, but as soon as i get information, obviously i'll share it with you, but i can't find anything about okay. This is not um like the exact date that or time date any of that good stuff.

All right, so we're seeing the qs and the spy come down is the russell also coming down. It is all right. How is this one going to play out today? Um someone just asked uh what my uv xy position is here. I'll share this when i am streaming or not streaming.

I still put my trades here so early this morning. Hang on. Let me early this morning i wrote up the valentine's day prep and i shared my positions and what i'm looking for this week. Other people are sharing their positions, their dd, u v x y, so this was posted on february 11th.

You have vxy call march 4th strike 20 premium, a dollar. Those are currently up 153 percent, so this would have easily i mean this service. This is free, uh, macquarie.locals.com, there's two versions: it's free or it's ten dollars a month or you could do the full year for a hundred just to get all of my information, so this one would have already paid for your full year. Um i explained what the cpi is doing, and this is hang on.

I'm just trying to find the covered call position or not the covered call the credit spread position. Uh must have been a little bit ago, but i am here i'll just share the information on my other position. For you, it is the s p, 500 expiration date. February 28th.

We sold the 458, we bought the 459. The credit the max risk per spread was either 60 or 65 and the max profit per s like spread was 30 or 35. The percentage of profitability was over 70 and right now those are actually up a very very nice, 46 um. So happy with that.

Thus far, all right looks like in this is what i'm talking about like morning, volatility of just how, like nuts, some of this stuff gets absolutely nuts. Let's see high high volatility this morning, all right amc with the overall markup market, bouncing gme we'd love to see a test of 130. um. We know amc the major support low 18s.

It has recently struggled a little bit at 19, but the main level i'm watching is going to be those low 20s. Like 20 30 ish is like a main area that i'll be watching all right. The tech sector trying to push and so is the russell the spy lagging a little bit behind. How is tesla looking this morning, tesla 854.

What was that gap phil, i know on the breakdown. Did it actually officially gap fill when we broke down from 880? We were calling out this gap fill to 850 750, which it hit that so we got the gap fill officially from january 28th, which means we no longer have this target. So this is kind of a good illustration of really how gap fills can work for you, not only in the s p, 500, the q's, the russell, but also individual equities right here we officially got the gap bill as soon as it broke down from this support. At roughly 880-ish - and we got the sell-off coming on friday um, so this one, if i were playing that on tesla, which i did not played on tesla, i would be - i would have locked the gain in either on friday or today, and i would just be Looking for the next play just a little bit of commentary on that all right, so that's tesla! I see some people asking about amd amd, pushing 116., actually amc, pushing gme, pushing spy, pushing everything pushing a little bit.
The golden question is: is it going to hold? I wish i could tell you i i don't know um. I know on the spy what i'm using as my gauge is 444, the 200-day moving average. I would love to see a test of it. I want to know what happens at that level.

Obviously, if we can't even push that level, that's a little bit more bearish and if we get rejected, that's also bearish. But if we go up and it holds and then all of a sudden there's enough buyers like enough buying aggression to get that breakout on the s p 500, that could lead to some very, very nice opportunities amd. Looking strong, it looks like everything's getting a little bit of a jolt this morning, not everything, but most things, apple's a little red cfe is a little red d-wax. A little red bbig is a little red, but other than that.

We're seeing some nice green some nice green opportunities, um gme, is like kind of awkwardly in between its big zones uh. We know we have some interest at 120. We also know we have some interest in terms of like key price levels at 130., so we got ta watch that we got ta watch that um kind of in no man's land right now on low volume, 170 000 shares traded, thus far, amc's traded, three million. Actually, a little late on volume on both of these guys, but hey anything, can change throughout the day.

Nvidia is still pushing, which is telling me that tech is still pushing. Yes, the cues are still pushing how's the russell. Looking the russell's pushing all right so thus far we have once again. This is what we were talking about in pre-market.

Small cap sector is over performing relative to the queues in the spy small cap doing the best we have the qs coming in second and then the spy is actually not even green right now. Holding on so the question is: is the spy the leading indicator? Is it about to drag things with it? We are about to find out about to find out all right all right, uh amc struggling at 19 for the third day in the row fourth day in a row so kind of watching that throw up gme there how's prague doing prague is up five percent. Well, if prague is up five percent, we should probably have it up and rivian's actually up five percent as well all right, let's throw up rivian, so we got some green, so prague and rivien are up the most at least thus far on. My salon is up.
Okay, that's more of a crypto, though um so rivium, the rivian getting kind of a nice push right here. Uh it came out that the soros fun george soros a pretty well-known, um kind of a stock market, titan legend type of a vibe um. They bought a lot of riving. It came out in a recent report, so people are liking that it's kind of similar to when ackman's fun bill, ackman uh they bought.

It was announced that they bought a lot of netflix that type of a vibe. That type of a vibe, the spy, pushing 441 looked weak and then all of a sudden buyers came out of nowhere same thing with amc, all right same thing with gme same thing, with the cues, all right things were looking weak and then ma'am. Something happened at 9 40 that people decided to buy all right, so things are starting to open we're, getting a better idea of the vibe for the day. So with all of that, let me get back over to some of your questions here.

Uh seems to be a normal deal morning, push before the rug pull late morning. That has been the trend that we've seen at least for the latter half of last week was there was strength, um, actually some noteworthy strength and then at some point between like 11 and 1. That's when things would like kind of start to crest and then all of a sudden in late day there would be like rug, pull situations. Um.

Is that going to happen today? I i have no clue, there's obviously a chance of it. Um, especially just we know, the fed meeting starts at 11 30.. It's not like it's going to be televised and i wouldn't expect any commentary from it like right out of the gate, but something to consider the fed is actively talking to media this morning. So you never know pardon me any like additional comments from them can obviously sway the market and right now we're in a very dynamic, very dynamic, fluid situation with russian ukraine.

So all this stuff there could be commentary out of nowhere and suddenly you could see a massive bar to the upside, but on the flip side of it you could also see a massive bar to the downside. Ryan reynolds definitely owns an ice fishing shanty bless. You thank you, hey folks, all right, this market open this 942 candlestick, is brought to you by the espresso industry. Shout out espresso, you make my life way.

Better. Um moderna ceo sold his shares and deleted his twitter. So i know some people have already been talking about that, but i think the situation's a little bit more complex um, so i'm actually getting some follow-up. I i emailed some people to get some information.

I will be following up on that this afternoon. I just don't want to speak uh erroneously about it. I know some people already put out some reddit threads put out some tweets put out some youtube videos and unfortunately i think it was jumping the gun a little bit um. It's that's another situation that uh.
It's just necessary to get more clarity on and i should be getting some response emails today, which means i could follow up on it in the today's afternoon stream. How does raising interest rates help correct the issue? So inflation? It's just too much money in this system and interest rates, which is when you're talking about the fed fund rate. That's basically, what you could say is the interest rate on banks like overnight and just like it's. The loan rate from like big bangs to big banks is basically how you could sum it up.

Is it obviously that easy? No, it's not, but like just for the point of this conversation, think about big players, loaning money to big players, they're increasing that the payment you would pay uh. So right now we know the fed at even certain points was really really helping with the repo market. The overnight loaning market - and they were it - was nothing like people were just getting mo money and there's a lot of money coming into this system. Remember the amount of usd is not finite.

In fact, it's an ever growing credit expanse uh. It's always always growing. That's how our monetary policy works. The question is just like: okay, how quickly is it growing and yeah? There's some contractions, like kind of almost like a deflationary setup, but right now we've been expanding at a rapid amount and because they're putting so much money into this there's so much new money.

So obviously, you're like the way with amc and jimmy when people were talking about diluting the amount of shares, that's what they've been doing with usd uh when you can bring new shares into existence to raise money um from a usd a fiat currency like perspective, that's What they've been doing there? It's just like so much new money like they're. That's why the joke is like the money. Printer goes: bur they're, just making up money out of the ether and putting it into the system. So you see that type of inflation and then one way well, there's various ways you could fight it, but one of them is raising interest rates because it's less accommodative to the market that we're seeing so that helps kind of constrain things, but that's one tool.

Uh. Obviously, you could just stop tapering, you could stop putting money into the system and then a really hawkish thing, uh, like extreme quantitative tightening, would be uh. If you look at their balance sheet balance sheet normalization, they could be a little bit more calm and just let some of the securities mature and like what's referred to as falling off the balance sheet or you could be uber hawkish and you could actually sell some Of those assets back and remember, selling goes down and once again it's all the game of trying to get some of the money out of this system. Can you please clear the clutter hovering over the amc chart? Oh this thing, my mouse, my apologies, my apologies.
All right, folks, what time is it i wanted to wait a little bit more. I wanted to wait a little bit more, the low from friday. I need to mark myself out some of these levels, so it looks like right now. The s p 500 is attempting to bounce off the low from friday, and just so, we have the pre-market low all the way down here.

Whatever this guy is, i hope, that's not a misprint all right, so it kind of comes to this of we going to hold this low. Are we going to bounce, or are we going to get kind of that ball scenario? The bouncing ball, where it bounces less? Each time and then eventually, we soak up supply at this support, so much supply that it does not hold. We will find out time will tell once again um the russell which this is good for amc. The russell is outperforming, the queues are in the middle and then the spy's, the worst, the russell's.

Currently at 0.5 percent. The queues are at 0.13 and the spy is down 0.2 um, so small cap sector for the third day in the roof, maybe fourth day in the row, is kind of leading the way uh. Do you think chargepoint is a good buy right now, um it once again i mean this is tough and remember i'm not a financial advisor. Nothing i say is ever a buy a sell or hold recommendation ever ever ever.

All i do is share with you what i'm doing, maybe i'm right, maybe i'm wrong. Sometimes i'm right, sometimes i'm wrong folks. I am not what you would consider some like expert wall street maestro. I make good trades.

I also make bad trades, i'm just. I guess sharing my experience with all of it and i i like to think of like what i say as like more of if you're new to this world. Maybe it's like a starting point: i'm like okay. He mentioned this term.

You mentioned this and that uh it's like a starting point for you of like okay, maybe research whatever more like this or that more um type of a deal. I think that's the best way to think about us and this community and my commentary um i like to share my stuff just because, like i learn off of you and i always think it's good to be like more transparent as transparent as possible um, but with Chargepoint, it's kind of tough for me to answer or not even charge point but like, let's just say, every anything in general, because i don't necessarily know your time frame. Are you looking for a quick trade or are you looking like hey? Is this like a good time to be a long-term investor and then, on top of it, regardless of your time frame, we have different personalities, we most likely have different account sizes uh, yours could be bigger. Yours could be smaller, i don't know so, with different account sizes, different time frames and also different personalities in terms of risk tolerance.
What might be good for me might not be good for you. What might be good for? You might not be good for me at a high high level view, i'm a fan of chargepoint and that's because i'm a fan of the ev sector um. I think there's a good shot, a pretty good shot that, by the end of this decade, ev will be way way. Higher this sector as a whole um chargepoint's a little bit more of an upstream play a little bit more of a related play.

My favorite ev play is still tesla. If we're talking about long-term ev, where to be, i still like tesla the best below that, i would say it used to be neo. But now we have increased political tensions between the us and china, especially in like the world of financial markets. So with that in consideration, i would say my neo lucid are probably tied, i'm still bullish on them, like, i still think they're going to make money by the end of this decade, like a considerable amount of money um.

So those are some like high level. In fact, ev is one of the sectors i'm most bullish on other sectors, i'm bullish on from now to the end of the decade, if you're just looking to buy something and like forget about it um, i really like cloud computing. I really like sports gambling online sports gambling. I think that's going to be pretty bullish, um, i think from a political standpoint.

There will be finally a catch-up for on the federal level of like the marinara industry. I think that's a good one and i also think esports year over year, the esports industry grows at a crazy amount. I don't see that slowing down anytime soon, what exchange to buy and sell. Nfts i've been a fan of ftx lately, just because there's no gas fees, they have a custodial wallet.

So all the execution is done off exchange, so you pay to bring on to their marketplace and you pay to get off of their marketplace. But while you're on the marketplace like and if you just want to exclusively be on theirs, uh you're not gon na have to pay any fees. I do use open c, but i mean i i get very, very frustrated at the eth fees. Also interested in ford ford has been crushing it lately, uh with their successful pivot into the world of evie.

That's just another player that i'm definitely a fan of. It's not the size of the account, but how you spend it reali. Moving again, i haven't heard that name in a hot minute that one was being discussed for quite a bit there up 10 fighting back, never got that gap film. I would have liked this chart better if it filled this gap from the high on december 20th, but yeah uh, it's been on a nice four-day push speaking of pushing, we have the cues pushing, we have the spy pushing, and now we have the russell still the Russell outperforming um, nice amc up, 0.6 percent, currently trading at 19., been a little bit of a struggle at that key psychological level.
Lately and then gme is 81 cents off from going green, currently trading at 123 and some change the spy trying to push intraday breakout perfectly bouncing off of friday's low that friday low was retested. Obviously enough demand was found there. The buy aggression clearly outweighed the selling aggression and, over the past one two, three, four, five, six, seven minutes, it's just been a push to the upside. The cues are looking pretty solid as well man.

Oh man, we are just getting a rip in the overall markets. Uh, remember the qs, the nasdaq, the tech heavy index that we pay attention to uh still pretty far below its 200-day moving average, and then the s p 500 is quickly making up room back to it's at 444. Currently, trading at 441.25. Amc is kind of like a flipped cupping handle.

We got the handle first, then, the cup kind of a weird pattern, but anyway, testing 19 19 has been clearly important for amc and, let's see if it can actually recapture that in terms of gme we're just hanging out at 123, slightly red prague is actually up. Nine percent on the day, prague's really moving rivian's up nine percent lucid's up seven percent tesla's up 1.8, obviously there's quite a bit of bullishness right now in the ev sector, uh, something interesting to pay attention to apple trading. At 169. Just went green amd up 3.7 trading at 117..

Bbig went green up 1.26 up 1.4 percent uh, currently trading at 327 watch 350, if you're in bbig uh d-wack trying to hold on to 80. one of the few red ones thus far today, cfei pretty much break even anything else. All right! That's like your quick kind of rundown of where we're at in real time we're about 25 minutes into the day, thus far we're at the point of seeing, i guess, an interesting trend, so the spy showed more weakness. The q's there we go.

Amc got that breakout. Above 19. - nice - nice - nice - let's see if it can hold the level that i would personally be very excited about - is a breakout of those low 20s we've seen clear technical resistance in the low 20s right around 20 30. we'd love to see the test and the Breakout, i would in no way be surprised if we're rejected on attempt one, possibly even attempt to uh.

Just historically over the past year, we've seen when we come to key levels on both amc and jimmy that it takes multiple attempts to break out. It doesn't really seem to break out on attempt one we kind of test it come down, maybe break out a little bit, come back down below it, settle at a higher low and then kind of rip onto like really, it seems like attempt three four five is: When we get those beautiful nice like clear, breakouts all right, well, the spy and the q's have really really pushed. And now it looks like they're taking a breather just because i still in the futures market have that um the queue like i sold. One of the contracts - um remember, futures, aren't like a stock where you're like you're dealing with contracts futures is it's a weird market, it's like halfway in between like options and actual stock uh, but you're buying contracts in the futures market.
But anyway, i still am betting against the queues and that, just from friday i got in early friday so like overall, i'm good um. I'm going to be watching this trend line on the qs. If it bounces i'm going to be locking in my gains, if it breaks down, obviously i'll be holding that to offset really my long-term, like retirement account uh hello, my friend, can you please please, please do a thousand dollar challenge with the stocks. Thank you in advance.

So recently, in january, we did a 10k challenge to see if we can bring it over the pdt rule at 25k. That took us about four weeks to complete and then recently um, because there was so much demand for people who really wanted to do more. Of like more conservative engagement in the market, so uh, and also it wanted to be open to people who had like smaller accounts.

4 thoughts on “Bulls are green, bears are red, neither are as crazy as the fed”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars vera Susan says:

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