Hey hey hey hey hey hey hey hey hey hey hey hey hey hey he hey hey hey hey hey oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother. We are 12 minutes away from the Fomc decision where everyone runs around like I guess a chicken with their head cut off. Uh, Not realizing that it's clearly going to be unchanged. That's what's going down.

That's what's going down. That's what's going down. That's what's going down. The big big big old announcement is going to be the thing that we already expected.

But yet, the Market's going to go Haywire anyway. so it's going to be super fun to watch. Um, and if you're degenerately gambling before this comes out I I Wish you the best of luck I Truly truly do. Um, if you're going the other way.

I Dude, Uh, maybe you're smart to say sit this one out. It's going to be wild. It's going to be absolutely wild. Talk about safe.

Moon I Just saw some Safe Moon news that the SEC is going against Safe Moon and Safe Moon's obviously getting crushed. But like Safe Moon was already a scam, we already knew Safe Moon was a scam. So is it a surprise that the SCC is going against them? And then what's crazy is the safe? Moon Supporters are still telling people to buy more and this is BS crazy, crazy, crazy. Um, but hey, Grifter is GNA grip.

That's what they're going to do. Uh, speaking of grifting, check out. check out the pin link somewhere to the top of the stream. A little bit of A specialty announcement, but more on that in a second.

Uh, folks, what? I need you to know is the Fomc meeting results are coming out at 2m and that's where they're going to tell us hey, uh, rates are staying at 5.25% and then Jerome Pal's speaking at 2:30 p.m. ET So in about 40 minutes, Jome pal speaks. In 10 minutes, we get the results and then we're going to sit here and hang out and see how crazy the Market actually gets. Matt Are you okay emotionally? no physically, no metaphysically.

Also, no. So across the board the answer is a uh, an astounding no very much a hard no on the situation of is Matt cor okay, but I do appreciate you checking in on me. You know that that's I'm actually a little bit better now knowing that there's people out there who are so kind to checking on me. Um, so we'll see how it goes.

We'll see how it goes, We'll see how it goes, We'll see how it goes. Thoughts on Rum for a shorter swing trade looks like a possible double bottom on The Daily mainly. uh I haven't like I don't know the answer off the top of my head because I have not been monitoring rum as a swing trade I'm invested in rum but I like it has move I I I Just don't know because ien like just to be completely honest with you I've been been checking on it as a swing trade I hope it's a double bottom I know they have earnings coming up in two weeks Next week they're going to be part of the hosting of the next year debate so there might be some stuff there. but really everyone.

this is a moment where everyone's like kind of questioning the overall Market of what's going on. So if the overall Market's getting crushed, it's going to be tough for individual names to be performing well. Uh. speaking of the overall, Market just because we have a couple minutes till this goes down, the Spy popped this morning came down sideways The Q's popped this morning came down sideways looking at the options Market trending up the options Market is getting absurdly bullish into this announcement.

Are they right? I have no idea, Are they wrong I Have no idea folks. the main message of the show is going to be that you realize I have no idea. um it it. Here we go.

Uh damn. the Discord has a pay wall. Never mind. Enjoy.

No. Supernova that's what I'm use the Supernova did you tried reading it? You can get in for free. That's that's what I'm saying is I I'm giving it away for for free that that's the whole point of you reading the the message. try using the code goon and you'll get in for free that that's my point that that that was like the fun announcement feel like you're kind of taking away the excitement surrounding it.

Supernova Anyway, uh, we'll see if we can make the money for it. which is not hard because it's free so we'll see if we can make zero during this particular stream. Um, and then it'll be worth it. It'll be worth it.

It'll be worth it. Now Now now now now. No. Matt The link says locals.

Is that correct? Yeah, so the way it works is before when people were signing up for Discord there's always a connection service. The connection service is locals. so if the people who are already uh, supporter on locals, they actually technically already have access. Um so I guess we're already talking about it.

But anyway I've been talking about the Discord The Discord is once again live for supporters in Locals Like everyone who's a supporter in locals will get access to it. If you want to be, become a supporter and you're like dude I Don't know if like I like you I don't know if you're going to actually have a good group, you don't have to spend anything. In fact, your whole first month could be free. Use the code goon.

If you use the code gooni, you're going to get a free month and you'll get so like, no harm, no foul if you don't like it. Great okay, no money spent. you get a free month of my hard effort in labor for absolutely free. And if you like it, stay around.

I Think you're really going to enjoy it. So anyway. Uh, the Discord is live if you want to join the official goon. Discord post goon below I Just need everyone to post below I Mean at this point I don't know how many people already posted it.

Uh, but if you want in and and if you're not even a member of locals like I said you could join for free by using the code gooni and 30 people already seem to be interested in it. So thus far um, a good group, a good group starting and if you want to be a part of the Discord get a free month. use the code goon. Um, and if you like it sweet, if you don't like it, well let me know how I can make it better and I will do that to make it better.

Um, so we'll we'll We'll talk about that a little bit later. What I really want to do is make sure I'm ready for this. Does the Fomc have their stream live yet? They do have it pending. All right.

They have it. Whoa with some music as well with some music as well. Uh, how do I add this? All right? We're going to add this. Let me get this already.

Uh. Window capture add Source We'll do a new one. Window capture number two. Yes, yes, we're getting somewhere.

we're getting somewhere. Switch it over to this Perfect. You guys should be able to see uh, the waiting screen for Mr Pal. At this point, we'll clean it up so you guys don't have to see any of this extra garbage.

And as you could tell, Drome Pal will be speaking at 230. He's the Chairman of the Fed and the market is going to decide if they are bullish or bearish on on him. I'll move it right over here just so it's not particularly in the way. But once again, that starts at 230.

So in the meantime, there's no point in having it up. I will hide it. but we are waiting. Uh, as you can see, the market itself, literally just going sideways, popped up, drifted down sideways ever.

I mean arguably since 12 12:15 Uh, even longer sideways on the tech sector 1120 115. So what everyone's going to be doing? let me give you the rundown on the: Old Situation Let me turn it up. Uh. I think my volume's pretty high.

Can you Not hear me? Uh David Matt I Miss work to stay home to watch you. Perfect as everyone should As everyone, you definitely should be skipping work if that interferes with your watching. Matt Schedule Like Without a doubt in my mind. without a doubt in my mind.

Hey Matt You're kind of quiet. How about now? Can you hear me now? Attention Attention. How about this Attention. Attention.

Can you hear me now? Hello hey Matt Do you think it's possible for the FED to announce, uh, pause? The market vomits, sell the news. uh no, everyone. I mean the market is already like. at this point, it's already anticipating a pause.

The market, wherever. this pops up right here. 99.2% chance it's a pause, we know that what's going to be moving the market is what Drone Pal says. So really, the movement from 2 to 230 is a bunch of BS it's a bunch of Randomness It might be right.

It might be wrong. They're going to be parsing the differences between last Fomc meetings. Update: Like the written update which you can get here on the Fed's website. uh, they're just going to be going through the statement.

It'll load right here. This is Federalreserve.gov Monetary policy if you want to check it out yourself. But right here we just get the statement and what they're going to do is like I mean they have some pretty Advanced like Bots that that do this. What they quickly do is get all the differences between last times and then this times and then they look at those differences and they're like okay, what does this mean bullish or bearish and then that's going to be the like initial reaction.

Um, so that's going to be going down in a couple minutes. Drone Pal speaks at 2:30 and then We're Off to the Races uh I'm probably not going to be trading this. Uh, but if I were to trade this I would basically just be waiting for Jerome Pal to almost be done with his talk to place my trades I Don't think there's uh, a need to trade before this or really during it or anticipating it because it's just a lot of Randomness it's a lot of craziness. So anyway, my full expectations are for the FED fund rate to remain unchanged and that will be announced in about a minute and 45 seconds.

Then we have to awkwardly kill a half hour for Jerome Pal to start speaking at 2:30 and then that's where things are going to get crazy. Um, things are actually going to get crazy before that. Like we're going to see the market go crazy from 2 to 2:30 But then what really matters is the movement from 2:30 to the remainder of the day. Um, it.

If you break this down. historically, historically, there's just a bunch of Randomness a bunch of craziness, lot of volatility, a lot of whipsaw I already sold some premium that's looking good and I hope it hits I mean that was posted and everything so we'll see what kind of Dent trat are you if you're not playing this well I'm it's just more of when am I going to play it type of a deal. Um, there's things that I do that are dumb that I don't necessarily think anyone else should be doing, but that's just because being a degenerate, it makes me feel some sort of way if I'm being honest. it makes me makes me feel like I've done something with my life.

You know that kind of a Vibe So with all that being said, we have 45 seconds get going. Get going. let's get going. So I'm going to turn the volume on on this.

All right, and I'm just going to I'll reload this off the page and bring up the statement as fast as I humanly can. Absolutely so. I'll let you guys look at the market. we're at 5 and 38 for the F.

The entire is below that level. Bring up. That's tight. and if the data stronger or the inflation is not as disinflationary as they want, there's room for the market.

The Fed's the Fed's in a good place and the F Chief is probably happy that is currently up 46% The Qes are up8 2m just hit. Where's the reaction? All right folks, we're going going as we get ready now. Decision from the FED Widely thought that there will be no change. Widely thought that is almost out.

Let's go I don't know I don't know I don't know unchanged Federal Reserve The interest rate unchanged at 5 and A4 to 52% It's the second meeting in a row the F has been on hold. First time it's done so since early 2022. The FED however, is still quote determining the extent of additional policy firming, suggesting that there is still a hiking bias in the statement and among the committee members. the committee saying it remains highly attentive to the inflation risk language precisely from the prior uhet, inflation remains elevated.

The E was upgraded just a bit, saying it's now if we at a strong Pace in the third quarter SP and the are tracking to their intay High I will set an alert for that breakout. The 10e yield getting hit Bitcoin Picking up a little bit mentions tighter financial and credit conditions. Adding the word Financial likely will weigh going a little bit. Uh, that perhaps is a mention for the Uh rise in the 10-year yield and other yields that have affected the economy.

The decision was unanimous, and now we have a question. by the way. Very, very similar statement. Only a few words tweaked.

Does the upgrade to the economy now perhaps put additional rate hikes on the table? Or is the idea that this statement is so similar to the other one one that led the FED to pause? Does itad Here are the changes instead of September 20th, this is November 1st Uh instead of has been expanding, we have retail indicators suggest economic activity hased Steve sck around. bring our panel in of solid in the third qu have moderated ear the moderated instead of slowing down tighter financial and credit conditions financial and credit. the red marks are the changes barely change any. Took two days to deci that dropping.

Now as we look towards today a little bit, we had a whopping two trillion Less in the refunding package of Threes tens and 30s and I truly doubt whether that two billion less is going to make that much difference, but there was a psychological issue there. I Do we have brought in many buyers over the last couple of days with respect to treasuries? They had a failure to launch in tenure with a close above 5% and now it's option Market is bull moving towards the options Market is bullish. Once again, the options Market is holding bullish into a real problem here. More bull.

We're talking thetion that we spent 5 trillion during and postco that money isn't all spent and it's going to continue to potentially give us a sugar Buzz which makes the fed's job that much more complicated because we all know sugar. Buzz Growth doesn't lead necessarily to organic growth which is sustainable and I'll leave with one final thought that we now have 307 trillion of global debt. Okay, that's per The Institute of Inter International finance. CNBC Did a great write up about that.

that's as of mid 2023. To me, that's an SP Getting more bullish in the options. Getting more bullish in the options? Look at Jome Pal speaks at 230 and that could upend everything And with regard to inflation SP Looking strong though, are looking one area that's going to remain sticky is going to be electricity and energy. Whether you're in Europe Whether you're in Germany or whether in Us, that transition is always out there.

so we're going to have some inflation. Lots of energy inflation Announc 2024 Retirement account contributions 23k for 401k 7K for Ira 307 trillion of global debt. To me it's going to be is that to keep interest rates mostly are right now. It seems to me thatll ispp this we all over the map Dro and now we're basically at that.

but in the grand SCH I'm still looking for much higher rates. All right, let's go to Bob Pazani and see how equities are reacting to this decision. Fed: Bob Uh, modest move up in the S&P Four or five points here. The change in the statement.

It says job gains have moderated. It said: job grains have slowed in the prior Uh meeting. Uh comments: Uh I See here: Fed's still determining the extent of additional policy firming. So a modest um haish bias I Think the problem for the looking for much higher rates I Want to see that? All right? let's go to Bob Pani and see how equities are reacting Cofe F B uh modest move up and four or five points here.

Not much of a change in the statement. It says job gains have moderated. It said job grains have slowed in the prior Uh meeting. Uh comments Uh I See here Fed still determining the extent of additional policy firming.

so a mod bias I Think the problem for the market now is sit basically positioned in a coffee upate. Assuming give us the coffe upate, the cof start cutting in the middle Next pain trade that would cause the most difficulty for the most participants is that all that is wrong that we are not going to get close enough to the Feds 2% for them to be enable to essentially stop raising rates and to start cutting in the middle of next year. That's sort of the the problem the Market's got right now. it's potentially wrong here.

We did have some good news today on the ISM Manufacturing Supportive of generally somewhat weaker economy, so you've got to have that answer. The poll: Quick, no cheating. Don't look ahead in time. e is there's new coffee Bas Poll up right now.

Who spilled the coffee? Was his coffee or was it her coffee? This is the most important thing you're going to do today. It's not the trade, it's not the market. It's not being nice to your kids. SP The coffee 2% Target That's the risk right now.

and help think got to maintain that position that a rate hike is still very much on the table guys. All right. Uhoh Jim uh. you have been the one who probably among this group that the FED may be more aggressive.

It though, is there any? do you agree? What? Bob Just said that a rate another rate hike is very much on the table and maybe this decision and this statement U makes it makes it even more so. Who looks like they have coffee on their pants in his Camp Here look I mean the risk in the market is that the FED continues to hike interest rates. I Mean is it likely that they keep rates higher for longer? Yes and yes, Bond yields are higher. Yes, the economy is cooling.

That kind of misses. The point is, the economy is inflation falling fast enough? Are they getting to target fast enough? and the question is is that it might not be. So all I'm saying is that when we look at probabilities for the FED funds uh, you know rate to move in in December It's you know, maybe in the low 20% probability that it happens, What I'm saying is should be closer to 50% a the FED would be happier making the market. think that now that wouldn't be good news for equities, that wouldn't be good news for the bond market.

but that's part of the solution for the Fed so options buying might be tapering off actually. Steve Leeman Said there has been an upgrade to the economy so we ands the double on the Spy. But are they willing to risk inflation reaccelerating, becoming unanchored, getting bought on the cover? Same situation one more insurance rate hike puts are still getting covered here. The odds could be closer to 5050 for a rate hike in December and we shouldn't.

We shouldn't misprice that risk I Think everyone has a different sense perhaps Jim of what Insurance uh is these days depending on your where the bring Steve back in as he's been combing through the statement Steve who spilled the coffee I Like what Jim said there that there is definitely the risk out there. There's a certain bias in here that is basically an unchanged bias. They added a little bit on the economy, but they also added a little bit to the down atal conditions. Story here is that they noted that their up the economy had to do with the third quarter.

It wasn't a prospective comment and so to the extent that Bob Pasani just talked about getting good news and I don't like using that phrase when it comes to weaker economic data. but it was good news. For those who are concerned about the FED in the ISM Manufacturing Also, step down in the ADP numbers. That tends to rule out an additional rate hike.

So I think we are indeed data dependent here when it comes to what the FED is going to do next and if that forecast unch for second straight time fed will ass additional tighter credit conditions continue F will continue to assess add information. Is there anything in here that changes your view that the FED is done? No, it actually I think it confirms my view. I think two things. One, they didn't have to say that job gains were moderating because frankly we we added 336,000 payroll jobs in the last.

Not at all. Uh, people are buyings getting out of as this to the fact that Finci have tightened with those higher interest rates It's Kind like the last additional rate they the place of that. So to me it says looking backwards the economy been strong strong that even more pressure in the economy coming from these higher rates they're not willing to to to claim any progress in inflation yet. I Think they'll see some more progress in the months ahead, but overall this makes me feel more likely I Think it's more likely the FED is in fact done and they won't have an excuse to tighten further.

Is this the hawkish pause you were expecting or is it a more doish one? A pause. The way the market is reacting right now is a little more doish. but we will see when we get to the press conference. I Think Ultimately, when we talking about this question of whether there's going to be one more 25 basis point hike always said it was a question of how fast say that does seem to be a common re is really the how long question and so what we're going to look to in terms of the press conference is really to any type of signals around how they're viewing inflation Because when you look at how inflation is breaking down yes, you may have, it's tough to see that path to 2% I Think you can see a path to two and a half percent.

But really, when you look at the underlying components, everyone there anything else that we're Miss Services They're focused on owner equivalent rents when you look at non- shelter Services you're actually within the historical mean so you're around 2.8% All of the other components are actually 2% or below and you have that owner you a trajectory where you can see Ath and you can see a path to that two and a half% not quite at the Fed's Target but certainly something that we want to hear more commentary about. Paul McCully Bring us across him for Daddy pal I Agree with a lot of what's been said here that the FED make an acknowledgement that Financial conditions have tightened, so that's what we've all been talking hen costume. They also acknowledge that the econom has been stronger than expected, so you put those for this car. Essentially, that's what JP Bias itself is useful and reminds me of 60 years ago when my dad would say don't make me pull over this car Essentially, that's what Jpw is saying.

don't make me pull over this car and do another hike. They did site so last right this time they CED tighter Credit In final, what does that tell you The inclusion of that language. It's says that they're getting better transmission of tighter monetary policy. They just control the rate and then it's transmitted to financial conditions whether it's in the banking system or in the financial market.

so they're getting better trans. That's hugely important. If you can get the same degree of tightness in the marketplace and the banking system with an unchanged Fed funds rate, then hallelujah, you're getting what you want is under Financial conditions and the from to frun the FED on the doish side. Steve Maybe this betrays navity on this, but is there any surprise in in the fact that there is nowhere in this statement are geopolitics or World conditions or the Israel Hamas War mentioned whatsoever? Would it be, would it been would have been way out there to have included a reference to it? I I Think it's not a surprise in that all of my reporting and I think probably the guests that you've been interviewing as well Ty Ys are looking heavy 10 Ys looking heavy.

The dollar doesn't know what to do. Line from the tragedies and the hostilities taking place in the Middle East to the US economy right now. Um, Ukraine has been going on for a long time. That level of violence of you thinking it was the C what happening in Israel and Gaza is new, but it hasn't had a market effect on oil prices.

So to be completely clinical about awful human dramas, there is not a line I did want to mention um Tyler what's been happening in the FED funds Futures Market which is pretty interesting. a very slight bid now a 33 34% probability now of that rate hike in March. So what they did is they took their anxiety about January possibly like and maintaining. this could be just a hedge, but there is something of a bit out there.

but more interesting. What's happened here is that they took what was sort of a 50% probability of a in June and now they kind of skip June they skip July and now it's September with a cut. So what's I think Happening Here think we're cutting in September I think PO is trying to make this. You know what? I will trade you that next hike I don't need to do that I do need you to think about higher for longer price that and I think that's the trade the market is taking and P and and bidding right now Rick Santelli Anything you'd add no I I agree with much of what said but I think as I look at the markets.

Here's what: I see I see virally unchange 30% chance of B Point lower on twos which means that the comp igned or didn't see anything EXC 24% chn close within 10 points the Dow Jones So what? I are many and I know this was discussed earlier. There's many who the tightening fed doesn't affect. There's a lot of Boomers out there that don't need credit, they don't have a mortgage. they're most likely not going to look for a mortgage so we can't even get at that crowd.

and I think that all the rest that are affected are going to continue to be consumers that don't necessarily participate. I do think that retail sales is going to start to slow down a bit and I think some of the metrics for GDP were distorted by inflation. I think the FED has done a pretty good job as of late and I also do agree they're done. and I guess I'm a glutton for punishment Steve Because I'll bet you another tranch of cheeseburgers that they don't have another hike in the cycle.

David Kelly Why don't you wrap it up for us here. Are you? Are you now persuaded that? Well, they are done? You've said that before, but that hire for longer is the regime? Yeah. I Mean if they follow their their normal Playbook they're going to wait too long to cut rates. But that's that's how that's how it works.

So I Think you know we at some stage next year we might see some economic weakness. We may trip into recession. The econom is going to be growing slowly anyway. But my guess is that when they cuss, people are going to say you waited too long to cuss, yeah I Remember you saying this two years ago David You said what happens here is they wait too long to start.

They go too far and keep it there. And they stay too long before they pull away. the uh, pull away the the regime David Oh yeah David Kelly Kristen Bly Jim Karen Thank you very much and we are minutes away. And Stephen and U Rick as well minutes away.

from comments from Fed chair J Pal, We'll get some more All right. Uh, Market's dipping a bit bit. Uh, the Spy I mean just the announcement came at two. So the Spy was at 42030.

We popped up to 421. We're now dipping to the swing low at 1240 and that was at 419. so we're it's kind of barely moving. This buy goes up 75 cents.

It goes down a dollar. we're bouncing off of that. The Q's the pivot line is a little bit closer to where's the pivot line. 35375 were 30 cents under it.

It went above it below it. Uh, the dollar had this weird action goes up, gets hit Bitcoin slowly grinding to the upside and then if you look at yields, yields like did dip. but then they kind of came up. So we're waiting for pal.

everyone's waiting for Daddy Pal. Um, did did anyone figure out how much a tranch of a cheeseburger is? Uh, did anyone? is that like six cheeseburgers? How many cheeseburgers per CH tranch of cheeseburger? Like? What do you think that unit of measurement is? Uh, because I your boy needs a trunch of cheeseburgers for sure? Uh, the options Market was getting bullish on that whole thing. started dipping a bit at 210 2115 Oo Spam risk is calling me interesting I Haven't been able to talk to but overall you could see the trend of the day ever since 11 18. Till now, the options: Market The Delta's been picking up I.E getting more bullish.

same thing in the Q's Um, I mean it's spiked this morning at 10:09 then it kind of flattened out and then from 1 p.m. till now generically up. Uh, so you could argue that the options Market is either bullish or neutral, but definitely not bearish. Uh, the Spy definitely more bullish for sure for sure for sure.

What is this last night? Well, this is interesting. Nothing to do with the market Market but maybe it does. Last night, a naked man beat up a Las Vegas metro police officer and then stole his truck. Oh well, that happened.

You know what they say, What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas You know what they say and now the Market's already bouncing back up. We're whipsawing everyone. We're whipsaw in everyone I Think you guys. Oh um, by the way, enough of you are in here.

The offal goon Discord is up in live. Uh, the way you get into the Discord is through Locals M. Locals.com It's pinned to the top of chat. it's in the description of the video.

The first month is Free I Want as many people to join it as possible just because I Think you guys are really going to enjoy it and basically I think that I can teach you and the other people can teach you and we can create enough of um, a community and the other people and cross-pollination of ideas that you're going to find a lot of value out of it. So even if you don't find any value I don't want you to feel like you slighted or anything like that. And that's exactly why the first month is free. use the code Gooni and then just basically come to this post and comment the code goony under it.

so I can add you. So I'm going to be reaching out all to all of you within the next 24 hours to get you access into the Discord Pinn to the top of chat in the description of the video. Use the code gooni to get the free month and that's how you see this message. I Just need you to comment so I can reach out to you cuz I know not everyone wants to join the Discord.

But anyway, there it is: Market Indecisive. Indecisive. Indecisive. indecisive.

Um, if you have an issue getting into locals or the Discord or anything like that, please do not hesitate to DM me on Twitter Uh if you are not verified I think that that means Twitter doesn't send it to me so you could always I guess DM me on Instagram You could find my email and email me it's media Matthew Course.com So if you're having any problems, just reach out to me and I'll do my best to assist you. Um, I'll do my best. Uh, how much is is I think it's seven cheeseburgers per trunch. Unless lettuce and tomato are involved, then it's 4.5 cheeseburgers per trunch that tracks I think I've read that before.

that makes sense to me. seven if there's no lettuce and tomatoes. But if that is, the trunch drops to 4.5 Um, that makes sense that that tracks. Yeah, No no no.

I'm I buy that I buy that. I'm on your side I'm on your side. All right. So here's the speech with Mr Daddy pal We are waiting for him should be starting in 10 minutes.

10 minutes, 10 minutes 10 minutes. We're not going to miss it. I Have the audio on. We're ready to rock.

We're ready to rock. We're ready to Ringo Rock and Ringo as they say In The Biz Uh and you guys actually blew me. Wait, what are these one? Uh, all right. what do we have here? Employee treated himself to cookies on the boss's table.

Turns out they were Devil's lettuce Edibles You're okay. You should not be going on my back though. Okay, you can just tell he's suffering I got you I got your feet have not. This guy is just Goose this guy is so Goose right now I don't like you hanging on my ass going o oh behind me though dude, he's sh.

he's barely keeping it together. This guy is battling with reality. You want a cookie? Kevin You want a cookie? All right ready. All right here we go.

No no, no, put your armor on me. Put this is why you should never use Devil's lettuce. dude. he is questioning reality.

Would you play handsies with this cute cat? Of course. I would. Of course my toxic trait legitimately is I Don't think any form of cat is dangerous I know they could be dangerous to other like animals and to prey. but like I truly believe and I know this isn't logically smart but emotionally I believe if I see a big cat and I go oh here.

come here. kitty kitty kitty and I just rub its like neck that it'll be cool with me I know that's not smart I'm not saying that that's smart but I truly believe any large cat. any cat it could be small. it could be large I feel like if you're just nice to it and like scratch its ear that it'll be your buddy I know it's not right, it's just how I feel so I would to 100 I would probably die.

but I would do it. Uh, last one final one before we get back to Dude Records. Tornado from his porch literally rode the tornado out on my porch. Whoa.

Whoa. spy popping a little bit. Qes are popping a little bit. Oh wow.

see I Feel less confident in that situation I would rather deal with a big cat, a leopard, a tiger, perhaps a ling than deal with that I feel more comfortable just like being cool with a big cat than I do this situation right here. Honestly I Feel like this is symbolic of what's about to happen to the market for the remainder of the day I Really do I Really really? Do he just bar? He just kept recording that whole time. Aren't you supposed to get in like a door frame or something like some stronger part of your house? That's I I Don't know why you would do that. Anywh, who? Um, this is the statement.

You could get it on the Federal Reserves website. They changed a couple of things. Nothing too crazy in their written statement that came out at 2 p.m. Uh, if you rewind till 2 p.m.

right about here, you could see what happened. This is the 2 p.m. bar the market popped. it came down a little bit.

Now we're popping again, but still effectively range bound between 42050 and 41950. The Q's have been range Bound for even longer between 354 and we'll call it 353 so range Bound For an hour you can see what happened at 2 P.m. we popped came down popping back again. Everyone's waiting for Jerome Pal to start speaking everyone and their grandmother.

I Have some alert set for this upside breakout I have some alerts set for the downside breakout. We're not going to miss anything Jerome Pal should be speaking in about 4 minutes and I guess this could bring us to the the fun portion of the show. Yields: Starting to cover but or like recover I should say um. I'm actually surprised both yields and the market are going up, but Bitcoin is having a good one.

Uh, Bitcoin at one point was above 35k today early this morning after the treasury announcement. then Bitcoin dropped. Now Bitcoin's making a a pretty solid recovery from 34.2k up to 34.6k Slowly but surely grinding to the upside. Uh, my question to all of you is relative to where the market is at 230.

From the point that Jerome Pal starts speaking to the end of the market today, where do you think the Market's going? Do you think we're going green or you bullish? Or do you think we're going red and you're bearish? Like how you guys vibing how how you guys interp in the vibe today? Um, and you have about three minutes to answer: are you bullish going into this or are you bearish First thing I see is bearish Then I see bullish. then I see bullish. then I see bullish. then I see bullish.

Then I see bearish. Then I see bullish. I'm in calls bullish Dawn I Don't know what that means. Green down bull Salana is ripping.

Feels like there's a lot of salana bots in here today. Um, feels like there's a lot of Salon aots. B Why are there so many Salon Hey, if you're a salot, can you raise your hand please? Uh, cuz we'd like to quickly know who to ignore because there's a lot of random people trying to like shill us like we get it. Crypto's up.

There's I mean it's harder to find a crypto that's down right now. Uh, this. it needs a demerit. Hey, on a specialty stream like this.

On the day that we announced the launch of the disc, Discord I'm going to let you guys give out the merits. What? What? What's a Solano I Think it's a cookie I Think they're talking about the prices of cookie I'm pretty sure Solanos or is it a Milano shorting Milanos at 44 I'm pretty sure it's a pretty sure it's a cookie, not bot. Well, you've done nothing to convince me you're not a bot by talking like that. Yeah, I mean honestly, that's exactly what a bot would say.

is not bot that it almost sounds like you're intentionally being a robot. I'm I'm not bot says says the bot I'm not I'm not bot Me no Bot Me no Bot Uh how do I join the Discord You connect to it through locals. You're going to Mc. Locals.com It's pinned at the top of chat Matt.

Locals.com and then it's the pin post. The Discord is live and you just need to comment here and I will add all of you personally. You're going to get the old Mkad Ma. Locals.com pin to the top of Chat in the description of the video User code: Gooni: Uh, how many of you have already? 48 of you, 48 of you, 48 of you so pretty much gone.

The code Works Goon code will work for the first 100 people I Actually didn't think that we would already be halfway through it, but the code gooni will only work for the first 100 people. So we're about halfway there right now. Um, use it if you want or if you're like no Matt I Already trust you and I know you're going to give me a good service and if you want to pay, hey, that's also sick. But if I were you I would probably start with the freebie Bot says salana.

All right to all the salana bots in here. Prove to us you're not a bot by saying what should What should we make the salon Aots say to prove that they're not a salon aot Um, say uh I I'm disappointed in your conversation approach these days. I'm here for all the Revenge to generate traits. Well, we're We're currently battling robots.

Man like, we're in a Terminator situation. Let's take care of the Terminators. Let's take care of these robots that are sent from the future to kill us before we get back into trading. All right.

Like at a certain point we have to realize like what's important and we're trying to not just um to say Matt is a bot, say BTC is the answer. Yeah, if you're not a salana bat, prove it by saying you hate salana. Have them say salana is garbage That proves their legitimacy. I Like it.

Yeah, say salana is garbage or salana is trash. Either are acceptable and it'll prove to us that in fact, are we going? you are not a bot. Let's get rocking everyone, we're rocking. Good afternoon, Everyone welcome my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices.

For the American people, we understand the hardship that high inflation is causing and we remain strongly committed to Bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone in particular. Without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. Since early last year, the Fomc has significantly tightened The Stance of monetary policy.

We have raised our policy interest rates by 5 and a quar percentage points and have continued to reduce our Securities Holdings at a Brisk Pace The Stance of policy is restrictive meaning that tight policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation, and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt. Today, we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our Securities Holdings given how far we have come along with the uncertainties and risks we Face We breaking out the proing carefully, we will make decisions about the extent of additional policy firming and how long policy will remain restrictive based on the totality of the incoming data, the evolving Outlook and the balance of risks. More to say about monetary Policy: After briefly reviewing economic developments, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a strong pace and well above earlier expectations in the third quarter. Real GDP is he's looking put together.

He's looking like he timed his medicine this morning I'm by a surge consumer digging it after picking up somewhat. the pal is a bot In the he has a bot VI and remains well below level. If he Wen a bot, he would say Salon is trash reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher interest rates also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment.

The labor market remains tight, but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance. Over the past 3 months, payroll job gains averaged 266,000 jobs per month. a strong Pace that is nevertheless below that seen earlier in the year. The unemployment rate remains low at 3.8% Strong Job creation has been accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers.

The labor force participation rate has moved up since late last year, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54 years. hey, that's me I'm between 25 re to prepandemic levels. Nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing and job vacancies have declined so far this year. Send it home.

Although, although jobs to workers Gap has narrowed, labor demand still exceeds the supply of available workers. Bitcoin's looking good, dude Q's are about to hit a new Inay High longer run goal of they did hit a new intraday High My Bad: total Pce prices Rose 3.5 4% over on the way to high, excluding the volatile food in energy categories. Core Pce prices Rose 3.7% Inflation has moderated since the middle of last year, and readings over the summer were quite favorable. Let's send it, but a few months good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward.

our goal is the Discord full. The process of getting inflation sustainably down to 2% has a long way to go. Despite elevated inflation, longer term expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets. The Fed's monetary policy actions are Guided.

By our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. For the American people, my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials They just always say this, they wrote trans. We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% objective. As I noted earlier, since early last year, we have raised our policy rate by 5 and a quarter percentage points and we have decreased our Securities Holdings by more than $1 trillion.

A restrictive stance of monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. The committee decided at today's meeting to maintain getting more bullish important options are getting more bullish, and to continue the process of significantly reducing our Securities Holdings. We are committed to achieving a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% over time, and to keeping Po policy restrictive until we are confident that inflation is on a path to that objective. We are attentive to recent data showing the resilience of economic growth and demand for labor, evidence of growth persistently above potential, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could put further progress on inflation at risk, and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.

Financial Conditions have tightened significantly in Rec recent months driven by higher longer term bond yields, among other factors. Because persistent changes in financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy, we monitor Financial developments closely. In light of the uncertainties and risks and how far we have come. The committee is proceeding carefully.

We will continue to make our we're Going Today Boys based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the Outlook and for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, the committee will take into account accumulative tightening of monetary policy send it the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation and economic and financial developments, we remain committed to Bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below potential growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the FED will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you and I look forward to your questions.

Sen: Howard Uh Howard Schneid with through uh, thank you uh chair pal for doing this. uh to what you referenced the the rise in long-term Bon Yelds to what degree did that supplant uh action by the FED at this meeting. Thanks for your question. So um I'll talk about bond yields but I want to take a second and just sort of set the broader context in which we're We're looking at that.

So if if you look at the situation, let's look at the economy first. Inflation has been coming down, but it's still running well above our 2% Target The labor market has been rebalancing, but it's still very tight by many measures. Uhoh GDP Growth World Although many forecasters are forecasting and they have been forecasting that it will slow what was that hit. As for the committee, we are committed to achieving St of monetary policy restrictive to bring inflation down to 2% over time, and we're not confident yet that we have achieved such a stance.

So that is the broader context in into which this options are starting. All the things I said. That's the context in which we're looking at this question. uh, of rat so um, obviously we're monitoring.

We're attentive to the increase in longer term yields and which have contributed to a tight to Thunder team. As I mentioned, consistent changes in broader Financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy. In this case the tighter Financial conditions we're seeing from higher long-term rates but also from other sources like the stronger dollar and and lower Equity prices could matter for future rate decisions are satisfied. The first is TI conditions would need to be persistent and uh that is something that remains to be seen.

Some put buying in the you know things are fluctuating back and for that's not what we're looking for with financial conditions, we're looking for persistent changes that are material. The second thing is that that that the the longer term rates that have moved up they can't simply be a reflection of of expected policy moves from us that we would then that if we didn't follow through on them then then then the rates would come back down. So the and I would say on that. It does not appear that an expectation of higher near-term policy rates is causing the increase in longer term rates.

So um in the meantime though reverse split the market. The most important thing is that these higher treasury yields are showing through the higher borrowing costs for households and businesses and those higher costs are going to weigh on economic activity to the extent this tightening persists. And you know the the Mind's Eye goes to the 8% near 8% mortgage rate which which could have you know pretty significant effect on housing. So that's how I would answer your question just as a quick following.

To be clear on this question, you seem to imply that you are not yet confident that Financial crazy idea here? Maybe just shut the up? Is that true? Yes, that's exactly right. Um, you know to say it a different way. We haven't made any decisions about about future meetings. Um, we have not made the determination.

Uh, and we're not I will say that we're We're not confident this time that we've reached such a stance. We're not confident that we haven't. We're not confident that we have and that's that is is the way we're going to be going into these future Me questions is to be you know, add fur policy tightening that that may be appropriate to return inflation at 2% over time Gina Hi chair pal, thank you so much for taking our questions I wonder you know if you don't raise interest rates in December Would the presumption be that at that point that we should expect that rates are at their Peak Or is there a possibility of restarting rate increases next year? And are there any costs to taking a more extended pause? So um, options are bottoming. Let me start by saying we haven't made a decision about September you're asking hypothetical there.

But but we're going into this sever meeting. We'll get as you know, two more inflation readings, two more uhet readings, some data on uh on economic activity uh and so we'll be taking and also the broader situation Theo situation and and the broader World situation. We'll be looking at all those things as we make a decision in December We haven't made that decision I Would say though that that uh the idea that if you the idea that you wouldn't would be difficult to to raise again after stopping for a meeting or two is just not right. I mean the committee will always do what it what it thinks is at the time and again we haven't made any decisions about at all about December We didn't even we didn't talk about making a decision in December today.

Really, it was a decision for this meeting and and understanding Br things. Nick Os from The Wall Street Journal OS of the Wall Street Journal nailed it chair. Powell Did the FED staff put a recession back into the Baseline forecast? uh in the materials for today's meeting. and how much does this tightening and financial conditions substitute for rate hikes if the tightening is persist was worth maybe a quarter point when we had the bank failures in the spring.

What is it here on something that's presumably more straightforward and more familiar to simulate. So I guess uh I Don't want to answer your question about the um about the recession but the answer is no I think I have to answer it since we since we did uh publicly say in the minutes you'll you'll know anyway in the minutes the staff did not put our our session back in. I mean it would be hard to see how you would do that if you look at the Um, look at the activity we've seen recently which is not really indicative of a recession in the near term. In terms of um, how to think about translation into rate hikes I think it's it's just too early to be doing that and the main reason is we just don't know how persistent this will be.

You can see how volatile it is, different kinds of news will affect the level of rates and I think any kind of an estimate that was you know precise would hang out there and have a great chance of looking wrong very quickly. So I think what we can say is that Financial conditions have have clearly tightened and you can see that in the rates that that consumers and house and households and businesses they're paying now and over time that will have an effect. We just don't know how persistent it's going to be and and it's tough to try to translate that you know way that I'd be comfortable communicating into how many rate hikes that is. Oh brother, what makes you confident that Ti What Makes You confident that tighter Financial conditions will slow above Trend growth when 500 basis points of rate hikes QT and a minor banking crisis have not thus far.

Well, I just that that's um just how I feel Bro there You know the way our policy works is and sometimes it works with lags of course which can be long and variable. But ultimately if you if you raise the you know raise interest rates. you do see uh, the those effects and you see those effects in the economy. Now you see what's happening in the housing market.

You're seeing that now you you'll see uh if you look at surveys of people, it's not a good time. They think to buy durable goods of various kinds because rates are so high now. I Mentioned again we're we're getting reports from housing that the effects of this of this could be quite signif ific but you're right, the this has been a resilient economy and it's I think been surprising in its resilience and there are there number of possible reasons why that may be. Um, our job is to is to is to achieve maximum employment and price stability and so we take the economy as it comes.

it has been resilient. Uh, so we just uh, we take it as it is. Colby thank you Colby Smith with the financial time, send this back. in terms of the thresholds that you've laid out, um of what could warrant further tightening.

the additional evidence of persistently above Trend growth or some kind of reversal in the recent easing of Labor Market tightness that seems to suggest something more powerful than just one more quarter point rate hike would be necessary. And I'm just curious. Move the reporters from the room, please Committee sees it. So we've identified those factors.

Those those were not meant to be the only factors or a specific test that we're going to be applying with with some metrics behind it. Really, we're going to be looking at the broader picture and you know what's happening with our progress to toward the 2% inflation goal Is the labor market continuing to broadly cool off and achieve a better balance? So we looking at that. You know growth. We look at growth in so far as it as has implications for our two mandate goals.

We look at that, and we look at broader Financial conditions. So we'll be looking at all of those things as we reach a judgment. Uh, you know whether we need to further tighten policy and if we do reach that judgment, then we will further tighten policy. Okay, and and just in terms of the tightening of financial conditions, If that is having some kind of offsetting, um, effect in terms of the need to potentially again raise rates, what then is the potential impact on the trajectory of of Rate Cuts Could we see those maybe pulled forward or have to see um, more than than what the September SCP indicated? So it's it's the fact is, committee is not thinking about rate Cuts right now at all.

We're not talking about rate Cuts. We're still very focused on the first, not thinking about R Cuts We AI policy that's sufficiently restrictive to bring bring inflation down to 2% over time. Sustainably, that is the question we're Focus We are not confident we to get inflation back to 2% for how long we remain restrictive. Will policy remain restrictive? And what we said there is that we'll keep policy restrictive until we're confident that inflation is is on a sustainable path down to 2% That'll be the next question.

But honestly, right now we're really tightly focused on the first question. The question of rates Cuts just just doesn't come up because I think it the first. It's so important. back bullish on the cues you know is as close flat on the Spy Steve Lean CNBC Mr Chairman I guess I had assumed that there was a tightening bias in the committee.

You say in the statement you're looking to assess the appropriate St of monetary policy Uh, the extent to which, uh, you may you may need to hike Additionally you You didn't say earlier that you were sufficiently restrictive. There were forecasts for two rate Heights most members of the but then you just said that Now a little bit, we don't. We haven't made a determination, would you say the bias right now is neutral, that there is no disposition to hike again, and that the committee largely has moved off of this forecast for two hikes or for sorry, one additional hike. One addition no, no I I wouldn't say that at all.

I would say I mean the langage. you know. Chill it with the question. extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation 2% over time? That's the question we're asking.

So is it right to think of that as a a hiking bias is still in the committee here. We haven't used that term, but it's fair to say that's the question we're asking is, should we hike more it's not. it's not, you know, and that that is the question. And you're right that in September we wrote down one additional rate hike, but you know we'll write down another forecast.

As you know, in December Chris Uh, thank you Chris Rugaber at Associated Press Um. Well, since the last meeting, the a strike has finished. Uh, oil prices have leveled off. Uh.

and yet on the other hand, you have the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas How you see all those factors taken together affecting the economy? Uh, going forward. How are you thinking about those? Um, so there are significant issues out there. As you as you point out, um Global Uh, geopolitical tensions are certainly elevated and that goes for the war in Ukraine It goes for the war between Israel and Hamas. Uh, we're monitoring that.

Our job is to monitor those things for their economic uh implications. Um, so the the UAW strike as you point out is is um appears to be coming to an end. Oil prices have flattened out, they haven't gone down but I guess they going down a little bit from their earlier Peak um another one is the the possibility of government shut down. We don't know about that one for everyone with calls help out there.

um but I I would go back to the you know the bigger picture for from our standpoint is is got a very strong economy, strong labor market, making progress on the labor market Mak progress on inflation and um we're very focused. You go, you're confident that we havean of monetary policy your boy told you restrictive. These are the types of things you can expect to learn in the you. Last month had Pennsylvania where you talked to a lot of or yeah last month where you talked to a lot of small business owners just curious what sentiments did you hear from them or what did you picked up on and what would you? Was there anything that surprised you the most in terms of what they talked about I wouldn't say I was terribly surprised I was I was very impressed by uh York As a town where the real strategy and I would say it's it's very impressive what the people there uh have have put together.

uh in the face of you know some difficult longer run Trends about offshoring of manufacturing and that kind of thing they've They've done a great job. We go as a city I think you know what you hear and it's is consistent there which is people are really suffering under high inflation. You were there. We talked to some people who you know are feeling that in their businesses and other people who are feeling it in their home lives as well.

You know it's it's painful for people, particularly people who you know who don't have a lot. Final Resources: uh you know, income on uh, the essentials of life. So we know that that that wasn't new but that did come through very clearly. uh in in in the conversations we had in New York and you know I I walked away from that even you know I mean just thinking that that we really the the best thing we can do for the US is to restore price stability.

Uh, fully restore price stability and not fail in that task and do it as quickly as POS possible. but but also with the least damage we we can Rachel Hi chair pal Rachel Seagull from The Washington Post Thanks for taking our questions. You've spoken before about the pain that would likely be coming for the economy in order to get inflation down, but since the economy has not responded to rate hikes in ways that would normally be expected, have you changed your views on that at all on how necessary or inevitable that kind of pain would be say for the labor market or overall growth? Well, I Think everyone has been very gratified to see that we've been able to achieve. You know, pretty significant progress on inflation without seeing the kind of increase in unemployment that has been very typical of rate hiking.

Cycles Like this one, so that's that's a historically unusual and and very welcome result. And the same is true of growth. You know we've we've been saying that we need to see potential growth. Let's just stop.

The question has strong but let ended on this one. Send the market to the Moon We got the magnets hooked up Parts: I Think Still believe that it is likely to be true. It is still likely to be true. Not a certainty, but likely that we will need to see some slower growth and some softening in the labor market in labor market conditions.

Doesn't crack down on emoj. Rest: they really don't crack down on anything true. You're to Emoji trade as much as you want and I think we know why. You know since since course the mag you guys are acting surprised that the magnets two processes at work here.

one of them, one of which is the unwinding of the distortions to both supply and demand from the pandemic and the response to the pandemic. and the other is you know, restrictive monetary policy which is moderating demand and giving the supply side time to time to recover, time and space to recover. So you see those two forces now working together to bring down inflation. but it's that that first one can bring down inflation without the need for higher unemployment or slower growth.

It's just sold 100 put spread 350 by 348 I Got in at 23. they're trading at five I've an order at two if this hits I'll make 2K 2.1k participation I'm trying to get out at, you know, got in at 23 I have 100. It's part trade because we're getting that that. Supply So we welcome that.

Um, but I think those things will run their course and we're probably still going to be left. we think. and I think still be left with it with some ground to cover to get back to full price stability. And and that's where monetary policy and and what we do with demand is is still going to be important.

I'm curious against that backdrop, if you've gotten any Clarity on lags. If you have an economy that's been so resilient to high rate increases, does that suggest to you that there isn't necessarily this huge wave of tightening that's still coming through the pipeline