That's why we forget again. All right together I Have no idea what's going on but my stream Labs just crashed am I good. Can I get a thumbs up on both Rumble and YouTube am I good Can you guys hear me? Can you see me? I My Stream Labs Just like completely crashed Streamlabs: Streamlabs Good Good Good Good Good Good good I I Hate like why does this always happen like right before? Like important stuff like seriously, can I ever catch a break like can I ever Just like for once, ever ever catch a break. Hey to help Um if you guys could help me out Obviously that just all crash hit the like button because that spikes the algorithm on both Rumble and also on uh YouTube And if you guys could like share this, let people know that we're live again because like that just absolutely cratered.

We had great numbers in here. Um I I would appreciate that for sure. Uh I would definitely appreciate that. Uh, hang on I did I don't know what the hell is going on here? Okay, let me switch back over to this.

Um, the Dollar's been popping. The market is just perfectly in this wedge. just lower highs, higher lows. I'm watching this bottom.

uh I might need to get out. Hang on. Is my stream labs having issues? Again, it wasn't to be fair. like I mean I love to like dunk on YouTube there but it really wasn't YouTube's issue.

It wasn't even restreams issue. Um that time around my just I got one of those like task management things and just stream Labs like completely locked up on me uh which was incredibly unfortunate. Uh, incredibly unfortunate. Hang on we have that we could talk about this later.

All right. I Just want to get everything ready for the day, especially the an application error. Okay, that's not good. just trying to get all ready because things are going to be going down uh pretty soon.

f1z schedule. Okay, we have that. we have this meetings, meetings, meetings. Okay, Fomc, we have Jam 30.

Okay, good, we're good. All right. we are good. So remember Jerome Pal speaks at 2 30 but the results come out at two and they're both important.

Um, oh, my speech I Just want to get it all ready so we don't miss a single thing. Uh, okay. watch live Feb first 2 30 right here. All right.

So I have it. we're gonna be able to listen to them. Uh, we're good on that. And then uh for the results.

I mean it's dropped by the Fed So what we'll do is I'll bring up the results as fast as I possibly can. Um, as fast as I possibly can. and then in the meantime we could also like listen to whatever CNBC or something. But right now, classic consolidations.

We now have lower highs, higher lows, nothing to be set, and honestly, technicals, you could just throw out the window. You're about to see a crazy burst of volatility. It's going to start at two if you missed the stream earlier today. I Just want you to know that the first move from, like just a statistical standpoint, is typically the wrong move and it ends up getting faded.

Uh so I Just want to make sure that is well known by everyone in here. All right we did that. Let me reload this my rumbles now for everything's frozen on me, everything's frozen. But I think we were able to pull it off in time I think we were able to pull it off in time.

All right, we have the pal speech. the 15-minute robot. The medium-term robot for intraday trading actually just went short at a couple minutes ago just so everyone knows. But once again, I would be hesitant.

So what am I doing with my Physicians do I wanna I have a position on that I would love to have gotten out for break even right before this result drops in like four minutes. The issue is that my stream crash and then I got too tied up and I forgot that I even have a position on all right. this is about to get nuts. This is about to get nuts All right.

We have these people all right. We have less than four minutes. so what I'm gonna do is we're gonna play this audio. but I'm gonna get the Fomc results as quickly as I can.

Once again, the expectation is a 25 bips rate increase 0.25 Also understand: I Would highly recommend against doing anything for probably the next half hour if you're full on degenate. Hey, I wish you the best of luck I Truly hope you crush it. but we're over the past seven rate hikes, they've pretty much all been faded. like whatever that big first jump is in the first 10 20, 30 minutes.

It seems as if the odds are that that kids end up. it gets reversed when Pal starts speaking. So even if you have a move and you want to play that first chunk, maybe just be in and out quick. I mean I'm not a financial advisor.

Do whatever you want with your own money. Um, but I just want to lay like some stats and figures. Kind of interesting of how leading right into this we're in the middle of the wedge. This is going to get spicy.

This is going to get real spicy folks. Even more unwise to do another. and Cameron when are they really going to stop this? This uh, rate rate increases? Is it this meeting? Is it? Next, Is it may when? Well, if we believe what the FED says it would look like May because the FED has given guidance that they want to see rates above five percent which would imply another hike in May and I Really think it's the question of how much they want to push back against the rate cut bets in the back half of this year because we still have about 50 basis points baked in for the back half. I Think that's the real question mark for markets Is that pushback against cuts Jim Look I mean the FED has a very difficult job today.

In one sense, they have to decide that they're slowing the pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points. On the other hand, they don't want to let people think that the terminal rate is already baked into the cake and that they need to keep that in open. Hotly debated question that they're thinking about. That way they introduce two-sided risk in In into the markets.

So look: I I think they go 25 today. They probably do another 25 in in March. That will. In my view, that's probably where they end the cycle.

But overall, the key message for them is that they're going to have to communicate. Ready Get Ready Get Ready Labor Market are really key factors that they're keeping an eye on because the worst thing that can happen to them is have inflation not come down enough, become unanchored and start to rise. You said something very interesting. If it would be wise to call a halt to rate increase right now, Why? Uh, Because this.

You know the economy is like a big cruise ship and when you're bringing it into porch, you're supposed to cut the engines and just drift in. Instead, they're sort of revving up and heading for the pier. Here, It makes no sense to over tighten and then actually project that they're going to have to cover it in both 2024 and 2025. That's what they're saying, right Markets? Or are they just gonna stabilize the economies? You Ready Get Ready Get Ready Get Ready You're going to see huge volatility bar here.

We could end up with the recession in the second half of this year. an absolutely unnecessary recession because they over tightened. Do you agree with that? Cameron Get ready. Not necessarily because we think that we're starting seconds away.

Speed it up people. Inflation in the back half of 20. Speed it up could actually start to Abate Meaning inflation could re-accelerate mostly because of energy prices which are starting to climb again and because we've seen so much resilience within the labor market. Look at that joltz number today: 10 seconds wiggle room in order to become a client.

10 seconds. The FED is very afraid of it. Five seconds. Which means that they've continued to say there are greater risks of under tightening versus over tightening.

I'm Gonna Save The first word after the decision for you, we've got about nine seconds left before we can go to Steve Leachman The Dow right now down 300 points and let's go to Steve with the Fed's decision Federal Reserve Raising by 25 basis points to a new range of four and a half to 475 this year I Don't know what's going on, but I'm in a big position for some reason four and a half 475. The Federal Reserve sees ongoing increases all right. I Think I'm completely flat. but somehow I Made Money on this remains in I Don't know what just happened, but somehow I Made Money calls a sufficiently restrictive level of the funds rate.

One little bit of dovish commentary here says inflation as he's somewhat. However, it says it: Still Remains elevated. The FED is signaling a new focus of the extent of rate increases and not necessarily the pace. So it says determining what it now says is the extent I'm flat.

Somehow made money Pace previously. so it's not thinking about it. Going by 25 is thinking about how far it goes at this point on the economy. Uh, it sees modest growth in spending and production.

Says job grades have been robust. The unemployment rate is low. All language from the prior statement. The decision was unanimous, with the four new voters replacing or who were out there.

Look at this volatility back to you up a quarter. Uh, still thinking about ongoing increases. Still heading to a sufficiently restrictive level. Any dissent: Steve That's that's a pretty big deal that they left ongoing.

Wow, yeah, they left in ongoing Means they have more to go. Uh, I Guess that's pretty clear. Uh, and they're not backing off anyway. I Got out of my position.

made money As we can imagine now, I'm just waiting until power. In just a moment, markets are reacting about as poorly as you might expect. Although we were all saying all week long, we're probably bracing for a hawkish surprise. You can see uh, stocks taking a leg lower in bond yields perking up a bit.

Let's bring back our panel along with Bob Basani and Rick Santelli Rick I'll turn to you first. What are your thoughts? Well, you know we do see two-year notes Spike but they're already coming back down. We saw 10 Spike they're coming back down a bit and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped. but it's coming back.

There's a lot of mean reversion going on there. Listen. After listening to Steve's highlights of what the FED has in the statement, it seems to me that the Guardians of the U.S economy which is the Federal Reserve aren't going to be happy until they give birth to a recession. We've seen economic contractions like Pmis and I see sections of the economy slowing, but we have a strong labor market and labor is a pain that the FED doesn't want to occur.

They want to induce weak labor pains. and to do that, they're going to keep higher for longer. So no matter how you slice this I do believe that the markets are going to continue to look beyond the rhetoric. Look Beyond Trying to give birth to a recession and the cleansing breath that may need for pricing after we've gone through covet and all those issues.

But in the end, it certainly seems to me like all the momentum in pricing has reversed and the only thing left is for the FED not to Blink too early because there is no good reason in their minds in my opinion that they should ease back. they should keep rates up. But I certainly don't believe that there's going to be a March increase. My personal feeling is is that this is going to be it for now.

Well I don't know. They just said ongoing rate increases will still be by the way. The death. All right.

So this is exactly why, right here. This is the exact verbiage. so let me zoom in just so you can see it a little bit more. This is all from the Fed.

This is the report that literally just dropped. This is what you need to know. Recent indicators point to the modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months and the unemployment rate has remained low.

Inflation has eased somewhat, but remains elevated. Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship and is contributing to elevated Global uncertainty. The committee is highly attentive to inflation risk. That's pretty much basic.

They're explaining the whole situation. This is why the market jolted to the downside. Listen up. The committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to two percent over time.

Anticipates that ongoing increases as in more rate hikes. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy as in how much we've already done now that we're at 4.5 uh of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation and economic economic and financial development. So right here: ongoing increases. Those are the two words that prompted the market to dump at first now.

I Went through painstaking detail this morning to show you how in fact, this actually ends up typically getting reversed. but I got absurdly lucky I got out of my position I'm now net positive on the day I When there I feel very, very fortunate for that, it easily could have ripped the other way. but hey, I figured I'm gonna degenerate so not. Why not just do what degenerates do.

Um, got lucky, got out, and then I'm now just waiting. I I think there's one, maybe two more really good trades left in today? Uh, Federal Fund rate four and a half to four. Yeah, so we went up by exactly expected so that 99 chance of it being 25 Pips That's exactly what happened. but the reason we joked it down is ongoing increases.

So that's half of the battle. And now 25 minutes in 25 minutes we are going to be listening to Jerome Pal, Here's what the FED change in the new statement uh has eased somewhat, but remains elevated four and a half to four three fours. Uh, Pace extend the future as previously announced plans. Okay, so they really haven't changed too much.

That's the difference. So we did get the 25 bips rate increase, but the Market's reaction is pretty much exclusively based on the fact that they said ongoing rate hikes. That was the question as I alluded to before of what are we going to do? Is there going to be no more, One more, two more. What is the size of these rate hikes? So this is starting to look like remember before, Um, and by before I Remember early this morning.

so let's review in real time. I Think this is actually going to be a really beneficial exercise for all of us, especially if you're degenerately trading this right now. let's review what is happening. So the report came out right here.

We dropped, we ripped back up. Now we've done a good job of going nowhere. so let's look over the past seven fed decisions, the seven most recent Fomc decisions. Uh.

and the reason I'm saying seven is because that is the current cycle we're on. In terms of the past seven or all the rate hikes. Before that, they weren't doing anything. so before that not really relevant.

So March 16th, 25 bips right hike. It was a hard drop Jerome Powell started to speak and then we ripped on May 4th. it was our first 50 bips right hike of the cycle. The market was indecisive like big widening and went higher highs, higher lows.

We bottomed out when Jerome Powell started speaking and then it ripped for the rest of the day. And the reason I'm really highlighting this one is because May 4th from 2 to 2 30 Very indecisive, which is kind of what we're seeing right now. chop a widening range, higher highs, lower lows. confusing situation.

Uh June 15 we dropped and then we popped July 27th the second 75 bips rate hike. Same thing Indecisive. we went up, we went down. it was a widening situation.

Jerome Powell started speaking. We bottomed out around 2 45, then the market ripped all right and then September 21st we dropped, then we ripped and then November 2nd we popped, then we dropped and then December 14th we popped, then we dropped. then we dropped again. Pop Drop Pop Drop Pop Drop poppity Drop pop So two of these were indecisive May 4th and July 27th Over the past seven Fomc results, two were indecisive.

from two to two thirty. We bottomed out when Jerome started speaking within the first 5 10 15 minutes of his discussion. and then it ripped for the remainder of the day. Uh, right now I'm seeing a lot of high volatility, indecisive reactions.

Is this a guarantee on anything? No. but I mean I was trying to tell you hey folks like, be prepared because we're going to see some absolute craziness I still have not done anything I got out of my position because I got absurdly lucky because we fell so incredibly far. but I'm not gonna do anything I'm counting my lucky stars that I'm positive on the day because that is absurdly like stupidly lucky. But other than that, we are now just waiting for another I don't know 20-ish minutes or something like that for Jerome Powell to start speaking for Daddy Powell to really get going on the day.

Okay, any questions thus far man. I Feel so freaking lucky that I got out with some money uh, new stream yeah, my stream Labs crash and of course it crashed like right before Majors It never crashes on like a quiet day like where everyone's already kind of gone and it's a Friday afternoon and people are leaving anyway like whenever I have problems like what? What's that Murphy's Law whatever will go wrong with like does go wrong. Um, that's where we're at. So right now I've done squat I'm waiting I'm waiting I am waiting I want Jerome to start speaking and then I want to look to see if we have a change of trend and if it looks like we're getting a change of trend, that's the opportunity that I personally want to capitalize on.

We had a big drop. Now we're starting to move. Uh, if you're scalping it this whole time, you're probably making a lot of money just because there's so much volatility that you have a high chance of getting a fill. So if you're doing that, congratulations to you.

Crush it, crush it, crush it. This is that awkward in between. I Know as much as you want to be like laying on a position right now because you might be like saying to yourself like but hey I gotta get this because like if it rips and it goes higher like I need a better film It is far far better to wait for a good opportunity than just chasing something because if you go along right here this could get dumped on you. Do not have like any mixed ideas on the situation.

Did the Spy go from 402.50 up to 406? Yes. Incredible. It could also turn right here and drop down to 400.. Just don't get caught in that whipsaw.

You want to get into a situation where it's not ever going to be perfect, but you want the odd stacked in your favor. You want the uh deck a little bit more in your favor than just randomly getting in. right now, it might work. I mean the first move was to the downside, so you might have been like hey no I faded that I got in that 403 went long.

you're crushing it and maybe it keeps going in your favor If you're watching this I want it to go in your favor I'm just saying based on the last seven, we saw some crazy crazy stuff occur between really 2 p.m and 2 45. So for me, I'm waiting for that. I'm waiting for something to actually happen around there. So calm, cool, collected, you don't have to take outsized risk right now where.

trust me, there's still going to be a beautiful Trend made in the second part of all this craziness, like if you're if you're thinking this right now is like no, this is my big trade opportunity. my big money opportunity. There's still more opportunity every single day, including today I'm telling you just. I Mean we've reviewed all the charts.

Even after Pal speaks, there are still big big movements. Don't erroneously believe that this is like the opportunity of the day. It's just that's not it. That's not it.

That's not it right now. I this is kind of going the way that I I thought it was. remember in the first stream that got cut I don't think the rumble stream got cut Rumble kept it up so they must have like a little bit of a different Tech thing going on over there. but Applause to rumble for keeping my stream up while I was fixing that.

Um, but first stream on rumble or that's the same stream on Rumble but the first stream over here? Uh, now on YouTube With this one this is. Remember, my prediction is it's 25 bips we pop up. pal starts to speak and then it gets faded hard right now. I think we might be looking that scenario that I called out in the face a pop that goes until Jerome starts speaking and then he really starts to emphasize how serious they are about ongoing rate increases.

and I think the Market's going to say oh, that's my prediction. Please do not trade on my prediction, don't I'm just throwing a thought out there and basically I'm applauding myself, packing myself a little bit on the back here. Uh, because it might be going that way. might be going Has Pals spoken yet? No, he speaks in 15 minutes.

Is Crypto affected by this in any way? Oh, undoubtedly. so Bitcoin is highly correlated with the spy and the NASDAQ as in they move together. So if you see the Spy going up, there's a good chance bitcoin's going up, but the Nasdaq's going up. There's a good chance bitcoin's going up.

If bitcoin's going down, there's a good chance the NASDAQ and the Spire going down. High correlation. But more specifically, this decision by the FED has a huge impact on the dollar. So that's what we're seeing here in the dollar.

Index And whenever there's a big impact on the dollar. you know the dollar and the and Bitcoin are going to move inversely. The Dollar's been ripping for a while now and what's Bitcoin been doing? it's been going off. and I'm talking about like a multi-month time frame.

The dollar tracked here with the dollar Index This is the USD against a bucket of other Fiat currencies mainly the Euro the next one. and there's the end the next one. and there's the pound. and then the list goes on and on and on and on.

But anyway, obviously if Fiat currencies are gaining strength, that's not so good for Bitcoin If Bitcoin is like they're going to move inversely. Um, so right here these two have a direct correlation. These two have an inverse correlation, the adjacent ones have an inverse correlation, and actually Apple the spy and Bitcoin is going to have a direct correlation. So these three are directly correlated, and all three of them are inversely correlated with the dollar in a general sense, just in a general sense.

Damn bearish. much. Uh yeah, no. I am bearish because I I think we've seen this before I Think if you're not respecting the bear case, I'm not telling anyone they have to be bearish.

But if you're not respecting the bear case, you are too easily forgetting history. So right here. from mid-july my birthday July 14th all the way up until mid-august this one month push which was the market gaining 18 15 depending on where you start. like if you use this lower that low but it doesn't matter, It either gained 15 or 18 depending on where you start.

But let's just call it the 15 month in this the 15 move in this one month. Ask yourself why this happened. This happened. This upward rip happened because everyone in the market even the big players because it's the big players who move the market.

They all thought that the Fed was going to stop raising interest rates and they thought they were going to cut interest rates. In 2023, the market got ahead of itself and then all of a sudden people were like uh oh, what's going on with the Fed And then they assured us on Friday the 26th that they are not gonna do that and then inflation's still very serious and they're going to fight it. So we got that Stark reminder on Friday the 26th I believe he was speaking at the Jackson Hole summit. Someone might want to fact check me on that one.

but I believe this was the Jackson Hole Summit and he reminded the world that no, we're just not gonna willy-nilly switch it and ever since there, uh I mean that day to the low I mean it quickly gave up 16.8 percent I Think history is repeating itself I Think once again, the market is ahead of itself thinking that everything's all great and Rosy and we defeated inflation. I Just don't think that's true I Mean folks. I Basically had to take a loan out on my house and my neighbor's house just to buy a carton of eggs. You think we took care of inflation? No way.

I just don't buy it. Maybe I'm wrong dude. I'm 28 like as if I know anything about the economy I'm just putting I'm just looking at logical things I'm connecting a to B here and when I see a when I see B it. it just doesn't add up.

It does not add up in my book one of these days. Yeah, we're going to be back to normal I Just don't think that we are back at that normal now. So I'm flat right now I'm not trading it because we've learned over the past seven Fomc results that the move is basically you wait for Jerome to start speaking and you look to fade the current move. So I would love for this to go up I would love for Jerome to start speaking and then I would love for it to show a little bit of weakness.

So I can short early, take on not much risk and ride this sucker down ideally a bazillion gazillion points. And then with my bazillion gazillion dollars I'll finally be able to buy that chicken farm. I'll finally be able to invest in the big chicken industry. Right now.

this was this is always like kind of a one two three punch scenario. The first punch is the Fomc results, the second punch is when Jerome starts speaking and then the third one went is when he's done and we see the trend for the remainder of the day in the market. This is kind of a a three-step Tango if you will and we've just done the first one and I think and if you've ever seen me dance you will also agree that maybe just don't do it at all and wait for the one two three step Waltz to freaking End and then you could go back to trading in the market. Uh uh, chickens rule.

Hey, if you haven't already, make sure you drop that like on Rumble and also on YouTube Don't forget to subscribe if this is your first time watching me. Hey I'm Matt I Talk about stocks, options Crypto Futures Breaking News I'm a degenerate I don't have high levels of maturity. Uh, but once in a blue moon I make my audience laugh. So if that's something that's your your cup of tea, hang out, hang out, hang out, hang out.

hit the like nerds. Oh man, the aggression. All right. let's get ready.

the Calm before the storm, the Calm before the storm. So you're not adding to your long-term account yet? What if the move is upwards from today? Uh no, I'm not I Think we're going to be able to add to our long-term account with this by below 360. I Know that's pessimistic, but it's just how I see it. I Think people are grossly miscalculating how much work the FED has to do currently and that impact on the economy I might be wrong, dude.

I could be clearly wrong I Just don't think so I Feel very very confident. Um I As boring as it is I Think the main play of the year is just getting bonds like short-term bonds I Think bond prices are going to come back up because I think yields are gonna like finally chill. Um, but this is going to be a highly volatile year I Think it's going to be a good year for active Traders but people who are just like I suppose like just watching their long-term investment account day over day. The best thing you could probably do this year is just kind of forget about it and come back in 2024.

I'm going I Want to add to my long-term account I Just don't see any reason of doing it above 400. in fact, it makes no sense to me to add in my long-term account with the Spy being above 375 380. Like, why would I add here? Are you playing far out puts for the Spy to crash? Nope, not right now. if that changes I'll let you know.

But recently I've been just more uh, focused on my robot trading system in the Futures market. So that's been taking up just most of my time. Most of my time. Most of my time, can the Spy get delisted? If the Spy we're gonna get delisted, we would have far, far bigger issues in this world than your account.

So it can be delisted Technically Yes. But for that to happen, we're in some sort of like dystopian hellscape where money doesn't matter anyway, and we're trading like gummy bears as our major currency. So bigger problems than that. Spide Is Zero Zero.

Zero Point Zero. Zero once again possible. But I We don't need to be betting on that because money doesn't matter At that point, money would not matter at that point. Hang on.

Oh wait, my rum chat has been frozen. Okay. I think I I got you just snagged another 660 and out for a bit. Good for you man.

Gold and silver. I'm actually bullish on precious metals for sure. Uh, gold and silver. True story.

20 years ago there was a general selling it moused me into customers from our restaurant closed. Now that's a bummer. Only Bitcoin can save us? Uh, I'm still a big fan of Bitcoin I Truly truly am just because I Mean, do any of us actually think it's safe or good or reasonable that one unelected body has this much impact on the global economy? Like, is anyone thinking that that's good right here? This freaking craziness. One unelected body making decisions like just some sort of like Finance PhD nerds impacting our entire lives.

everyone's life. Like literally the decisions that were just made by this group of unelected nerdy ass. Finance People just had a huge impact on the entire global economy. Does anyone think that's like good? Like it's just so.

It's so wild that we're in this situation and it's It's wild that I even have to stream this and we have to cover it because it's that important. But what's great? We didn't pick these people. We didn't pick them like what the it? It blows my mind. It absolutely blows my mind.

Uh, I'll leave this up because I know there's probably some degenerate traders that need this chart. Uh, minute by minute. uh Jerome Powell is going to be speaking at 2 30 so we have five minutes. Oh, let me make sure this is good to go.

Good to go. Good to go. Good to go. Good to go Do they Are they playing weird YouTube Oh wait.

I think I might have a better channel to watch this? Hang on YouTube Federal Reserve uh to YouTube uh Federal Reserve Let's get going subscribe I'll subscribe they have 192 000 Subs Why are they doing this okay I just want to make sure I'm screen sharing what I need to properly hello Okay, well that's not working in the slightest so that's sick. Cool Cool Cool Cool Cool Cool Cool Cool Cool Cool cool. Good thing we could fix this window. capture add Source Okay add source.

Okay, no, no, why is the right one not showing up? Well, good thing we do this early. I Don't want you guys to miss what? Daddy Powell has to say let's get ready. Okay, Done. Okay, the page is there.

We have the right thing and all we really need to do now is fix the page. Okay, now team. We're cooking now. All right.

we're waiting for him. We are waiting. We are waiting. We are waiting.

Uh, so whenever he gets going, we're we're getting ready for the second level of craziness. Tom Brady Tweets his retirement isn't that like news from early this morning? Pretty sure Tom Brady's been retired for a hot SEC Now hot SEC Now all right here we go. Things are gonna get nuts. Oh you can't I don't even know if I should have these technicals up.

Part of me thinks I should just turn off the algorithms. wide range day, huge range day. The market internals are neutral leaning, bullish. Uh, the current trend is flat based on the EMAs.

the 15-minute is mixed. The five oh, the one, the three, the five, and the fifteen. All of them are pretty much saying the exact same thing if we have absolutely no clue, which makes me feel strongly that this is equivalent to the May 4th movement or the July 27th movement. So, both the May 4th Fomc day and the July 27th Fomc day had very, just like high volatility going nowhere reactions.

and then from 2 30 onward they actually both ran. So even though yes, in more of a swing definition, I'm still kind of pessimistic about the market. If this starts breaking to the upside, of course, I'm going to go long. That's just that's called day trading.

Um, so I'm not gonna like I'm not gonna let my medium term bias get in the way of any of this. Uh, but I guess I wanted to share where it was at, but I'm just letting you guys know how this all played out previously. Okay, we are a little. we're two minutes out, two minutes out.

Is it true that when the fetcher has to divest her portfolio that there's no cap games, tax? Uh, I don't know on that one. I Don't know what? the I know the FED members out of the goodness of their heart. They all sold almost a year ago, so they pretty much all top ticked the market because of ethical issues. Ethical issues.

So they basically got themselves out right before the market crash. Uh, what do we have? All right I'm seeing if there's any news. just before we get into this Jerome discussion. just before we get into this Jerome discussion.

All right Man oh man oh man. this is gonna get special special. Let's get going. let's get going.

100 chance of 100 bips right? Hike? Uh well. the right hikes already announced we're You're already 29 minutes late on that one. Let's go. Let's go.

I'm ready. This is gonna be the the real trading opportunity of the day. They're playing some super strange elevator music in the background if anyone was curious. I Don't know where they're getting these elevators, but look at that whipsaw.

Jesus Almost four dollars, Three and a half dollars and we act as if this is like a reasonable. Remember how? it's kind of funny that they're I guess mandates as an organization is price stability. That's part of their mandates. And really, whenever they do anything, there's anything but price stability.

Are you playing The downside on the Spy I'm playing nothing right now and I don't know which way I'm gonna play depends which way Jerome pushes the market I'm going I'm going with Daddy pal. Whichever way daddy Pal pushes the market. That's the way this guy's gonna be playing it. All right.

let's get going. Uh, let me double check. the volume volume is good. All right.

let's see how this thing rips team. Let's get going pal. Let's get going brother. Good afternoon and welcome Foreign.

My colleagues and I understand the hardship that high inflation is causing and we are strongly committed to Bringing inflation back down to our two percent goal. Over the past year, we've taken forceful actions to tighten the stance of monetary policy. We've covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. Even so, we have more work to do.

Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the Bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone in particular. Without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of labor market conditions that benefit all today. The Fomc raised our policy interest rate by 25 basis points.

We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to two percent over time. In addition, We are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet. Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive stance for some time. I Will have more to say about today's monetary policy actions.

After briefly reviewing economic developments, the US economy slowed significantly last year, with real GDP rising at a below Trend pace of one percent. Recent indicators point to modest growth of spending and production. This quarter consumer spending appears to be expanding at a subdued Pace in part reflecting tighter Financial conditions. over the past year, activity in the housing sector continues to weaken, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates, higher interest rates, and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment.

Despite the slowdown in growth, the labor market remains extremely tight with the unemployment rate at a 50-year low, job vacancies still very high, and wage growth. Elevated job gains have been robust with employment Rising by an average of 247 000 jobs per month over the last three months. Although the pace of job gains has slowed over the course of the past year and nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing, the labor market continues to be out of balance. Labor demand substantially exceeds the supply of available workers, and the labor force participation rate has changed little from a year ago.

Inflation remains well above our longer run goal of two percent over the 12 months, ending in December Total Pce Prices rose 5.0 percent excluding the volatile food and energy categories. Core Pce prices Rose 4.4 percent The inflation data received over the past three months show a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of increases, and while recent developments are encouraging, we will need substantially more evidence to be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path. Despite elevated inflation, longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, order reject, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets no date trading on the places. Market Although inflation has moderated recently, it remains too high.

The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched. The Fed's monetary policy actions are Guided By our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices For the American people, my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks that inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to a returning inflation to our two percent objective. At today's meeting, the committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to four and a half to four and three quarters percent, and we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet.

With today's action, we have raised interest rates by four and a half percentage points over the past year. We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the Federal Funds rate will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation over time. Bear trap. We are seeing the effects of our policy demand in the most interest-sensitive sectors of the economy, particularly housing.

It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation. In light of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, the committee decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points today. Continuing the step down from last year's rapid pace of increases shifting to a slower Pace will better allow the committee to assess the economy's progress toward our goals as we determine the extent of future increases that will be required to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance. We will continue to make our decisions, meeting by meeting, take into a, taking into account the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation.

We have been taking forceful steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with Supply. Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our two percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below Trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.

The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done. To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission.

We at the FED will do everything we can to attend our maximum Employment and Price Stability goals. Thank you and I look forward to your questions. Associated Press Thank you for doing this as you know Financial Conditions have loosened since the fall with bond yields falling which has also brought down mortgage rates and the stock market posted a solid gain in January. Does that make your job of combating inflation harder? And could you see lifting rates higher than you otherwise would to offset the increase in or to offset the easing of financial conditions? So it is important that overall Financial conditions continue to reflect the policy restraint that we're putting in place in order to bring inflation down to two percent.

And of course Financial conditions have tightened very significantly over the past year. I Would say that our focus is not on short-term moves, but on sustained changes to broader Financial conditions. And it is our judgment that we're not yet at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance, which is why we say that we expect ongoing hikes will be appropriate. Of course, many things affect financial conditions, not just our policy.

um, and we will take into account overall Financial conditions, along with many other factors. As we said, policy hi chair Powell Thank you for taking our questions. Rachel Siegel from The Washington Post Over the last quarter, we've seen a deceleration in prices in wages and a fall in consumer spending. All while the unemployment rate has been able to stay at a historic low.

Does this at all change your view of how much the unemployment rate would need to go up if at all to see inflation cut down to the levels you're looking for. So I I would say it is. It is a good thing that the the disinflation that we have seen so far has not come at the expense of a weaker labor market. but I would also say that that that disinflationary process that you now see underway uh is really at an early stage.

What you see is really, uh, in the good sector, you see inflation uh, now coming down because Supply chains have been fixed, demand is Shifting back to services and shortages or have been abated. So you see that in the um, uh, in the in, the in, the other, in in the Housing Services sector. We expect inflation to continue moving up for a while, but then to come down assuming that new leases continue to be lower. So in those two sectors, you've got a good story.

The issue is that we have a large sector called non-housing Service Core non-housing Services where we don't see disinflation yet. But I I would say that um, so long, foreign expectation for where the unemployment rate might go change since December You know we're going to write down new forecasts at the March meeting and we'll see at that time I will say that it is gratifying to see the disinflationary process crushed now getting underway and we continue to get strong labor market data. Uh so, but you know we'll update those forecasts in in March Uh chair Powell Neil Irwin With Axios Um, you and some of your colleagues have emphasized the possibility that job openings could come down and that would let some of the air out of the labor market without major job losses. We saw the opposite in the December Jolts this morning.

uh job openings actually Rising uh that also was coincided with with uh slow down wage inflation Uh, do you believe that openings are an important indicator to be studying to to understand where the labor market is and where wage inflation might be heading? So you're right about the data? Of course. What we um we did see, we've seen average hourly earnings and now the 408 is the target cost index abating a little bit. Still off of there right here. Once again, we're going for the highest Friday the 27th and that's resistance.

Look for that breakout. The job openings uh number has in Jolts has been quite volatile that uh, recently right there I did see that it moved up back up this morning. I Do think that uh, it's probably important indicator is back up to 1.9 job openings to Um to unemployed people, people who are looking for work. so it's it's an indicator but nonetheless we You're right.

we do see uh wages moving down. If you look across the rest of the labor market, you still see very high uh um and uh you know quits are still in an elevated level. So many, many by many, many indicators. Uh, the job market is still very strong.

Thank you. Colby Smith With the financial Times, given the economic data since the December meeting is the trajectory for the FED funds rate in the most recent SCP Still the best guidepost for the policy path forward. or does ongoing now mean more than two rate? Rises Now it's so perfectly you're right. At the December meeting, we all wrote down our best estimates of 4 100 would be and that's key.

Keys are back in December and the median for that was between five and five and a quarter percent. Um, at the Marx meeting, we're going to update those assessments. We did not update them today. We did, however, continue to say that we believe ongoing rate hikes will be appropriate to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy to bring inflation back down to two percent if this pushes I'm moving my wrists.

absolutely if you push and hold. Above This That will become my new risk. Right now. my risk is breaking.

We still think there's work to do there. We haven't made a decision on on exactly where that will be. I Think you know we're going to be looking carefully at the incoming data between now and the March meeting and then the May meeting. Um, I I broke I Don't feel a lot of certainty about uh, the high right here right now.

If we come to the view that we need to write down uh, to, you know, to to move rates up beyond what we said in December we would certainly do that at the same time. If the data come in in the other direction then we'll You know we'll make data dependent decisions at coming meetings of course. Specific follow-up How are you viewing the kind of balance of risk between those two options of you know, the the likelihood of maybe falling short of that for or going beyond that level I Guess I would say it this way. Um I Continue to think that uh, it's very difficult to manage the risk of doing too little and finding out in six or 12 months that we actually were close but didn't get the job done.

Inflation Springs back and we have to go back in. And now you really do worry about expectations getting unanchored and that kind of thing. This is a very difficult risk to manage. whereas uh I you know of course we have no incentive and no desire to to over tighten.

but we you know if we if we feel like we've gone too far, we can certainly could. Certain and inflation is coming down faster than we expect, then we have tools that would that would work on that. So I I Do think that in this situation my wrist position in 40 years you know the job is not fully done as I mentioned I Started to mention earlier, we have a sector that represents 56 percent of the core inflation index where we don't see disinflation yet so we we don't see it. it's not happening yet.

Inflation in in core Services x x housing is still running at four percent on a six and twelve month basis, so there's not nothing happening there in the other two sectors representing you know less than 50 percent you actually I think now have a story that is credible that's coming together although you don't actually see disinflation yet in Housing Services But but it's in the pipeline right? So for the for the third sector we we don't see anything here. So I think it would be premature. It would be very premature to declare Victory or to to think that we've really got this. we need to see.

Our goal of course is to bring inflation down and how do we? How do we get that done? There are many, many factors driving inflation in that sector and they should be coming into play for to have inflation. the disinflationary process begin in that sector, but so far we don't see that. and I think until we do, we see ourselves as having a lot of work left to do. Hi How are you excited with Reuters And and thanks as usual.

So I just wanted to connect a couple Dots Here the statements made a number of targets. That's the next regions. Uh, that's new. Uh, you've taken out references to the war in Ukraine as causing price increases.

You've taken out references to the pandemic. You've eliminated all the reasons that you said prices were being driven higher. Yet that's not mapping. It's any change in how you describe policy.

We still have ongoing increases to come. So I'm wondering why is that the case? This is the next Target right here next. Target with you not wanting to give a very over eager Market a reason to get ahead of itself and overreact So I guess I would would say it this way. Uh, we can now say I think for the first time currently.

uh that the distance like just because this is a big sector, right? This is what we thought would happen no matter what I'm actually happening and for the reasons we thought we, you know it's Supply chains that shortages and it's demand revolving you back towards services. So this is a good thing. This is a good thing, but that's you know, around a quarter of the Pce price index core Pce price index. So the second sector is is Housing Services And that's driven by very different things.

And we, as I mentioned with Housing Services we expect and other forecasters expect that measured inflation will continue moving up for several months, but will then come down assuming that that new leases continue to be soft. And we do assume that. So we think that that's sort of in the pipeline and we actually see disinflation in the good sector. and we see it in the pipeline for two sectors that amount to a little less than half.

So this, this is good. and we note that when we say inflation is coming down that this is good, we expect to see that that disinflation process will be seen. We hope soon in the Core Goods Uh, X Housing sorry the Core Services X Housing sector that I talked about. We don't see it yet.

It's You know it's a it's seven or eight different kinds of services. not all of them that are the same. And you know we have a sense of what's going on in each of those different uh subsections. Um, probably the biggest part of it probably 60 percent of of that will is you know research would show, is sensitive to slack in the economy and so the labor market will probably be important.

Some of the other ones it's the liver Market's not going to be important. many other factors will drive it. In any case, we don't see this inflation in that sector yet. and I think we need to see that it's the majority of the core PC index, which is the thing that we think is the best predictor of headline Pce, which is our mandate.

So it's not that we're not. We're neither optimistic or pessimistic. we're just telling you that we we don't see in inflation moving down yet in that large sector. I Think we will, right? Fairly agree.

We don't see it yet until we do. Very important I Think we. You know we see ourselves. and if we get honest with ourselves, we see ourselves persistent inflation in that sector which will take longer to get down and we're just going to have to.

We have to complete the job. I Mean that's that's what we're here for. Tomorrow's the Wall Street Journal Uh chair Powell You Observed several years ago that we learned we can have a low unemployment rate without above Target inflation. and we have learned lately that inflation can come down from its uncomfortably high level despite a historically low unemployment rate.

Given that, and given how much you did over the last year, why do you think further rate increases are needed? Why not stop here and see what transpires in the coming months before raising rates again? So we, you know we've raised rates four and a half percentage points, and we're talking about a couple of more rate hikes to get to that level we think is appropriately restrictive. And why do we think that's probably necessary? We think because inflation is still running very hot, we're of course taking into account long and variable lags and we're thinking about that. Um, it really? The story we're telling about inflation is in to ourselves and the way we understand it is basically the three things that I've just gone through a couple times and again, we don't see it affecting the services sector x x housing yet. um.

but I mean I Think our assessment is that we're not very far from that level. Uh, we don't know that though. we don't know that. So I Think we're we're You know we're living in a world of significant uncertainty.

I Would look across the the rate, the the spectrum of rates and see that real rates are now positive right by. You know, by an appropriate set of measures are positive across the yield curve. I Think policy is restrictive. We're trying to make a fine judgment about how much is restrictive enough.

That's all. and we're gonna. You know that's why we're slowing down to 25 basis points. We're going to be carefully watching the economy and watching inflation and watching the progress of the disinflationary process.

Did you or your colleagues discuss the the conditions for a pause at this meeting this week? That's a good question. You know you'll see the minutes will come out in three weeks and we'll give you a lot of detail. I You know we spent a lot of time talking about the path ahead and uh and the state of the economy. and uh I wouldn't want to start to drive the describe all the details there, but that was the sense of the discussion.

Was really talking quite a bit about the path forward. Victoria Um, hi chair pal I Wanted to ask about the debt ceiling given that we've now hit up against it. I Was wondering if the U.S goes past the X date. Will the FED do whatever the treasury directs as it relates to making payments as the Fiscal Agent or will it do its own analysis of any legal constraints? So your question is, would we say your question again, Will the FED do what treasury directs as it relates to making payments? Or will it do its own analysis of any legal constraints? So you're really asking about, but I I you're asking about prioritization in effect? Yes.

So I I I Feel like I Have to say this: there's only one way forward here and that is for Congress to raise the debt ceilings so that the United States government can pay all of its obligations when due and any deviation resistance, right? Highly risky and that no one should assume that the FED can protect the economy from the consequences of failing to act in a timely manner. In terms of our relationship with the treasury, we are their Fiscal Agent and I'm just going to leave it at that. Are you active acting like any planning of what might happen in the event that that would happen I'm I'm just going to leave it at that. This is a matter that's to be resolved between.

Really, it's really Congress's job to raise the debt ceiling and uh, I gather their discussions happening but they don't involve us. We're not. Uh, we're not involved in those discussions. So we're the Fiscal Agent um Gina and Misty uh, Gina Smiley from The New York Times Thanks for taking our questions I wonder was there any discussion today of the possibility of pausing rate increases and then restarting them? Lori Logan from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas seemed to suggest that that would be a possibility and a recent speech and I wonder if that views broadly shared on the committee? So um, the committee obviously did not see this as a time to pause.

We judge that the appropriate you know thing to do at this meeting was to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, and we said that we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain that stance of sufficiently restrictive monetary policy that will bring inflation down to two percent. So that's that's the Judgment that we made. Um, you know we're gonna. We're gonna write down new forecasts in March and uh uh and we'll you know, we'll certainly be looking at the incoming data as everyone else will being at every meeting.

A move, go a little bit more slowly. take some gaps in between moves. I mean I Think this is not something that the committee is thinking about or exploring in any kind of detail. In principle, though you know we used to think we used to do was go every other meeting if you remember 25 basis points and that was considered a fast pace.

Um so I think a lot of options are available and I mean you saw what the Bank of Canada did and you know they left it that they're willing to to raise rates after pausing. But this is not something that. this is not something that the that the Federal Urban Market Committee is uh, on the on the point of deciding right now Steve at least been CNBC Mr Chairman Um the SCP has the Uh Pce inflation rate in 2023 at 3.1 percent. Meanwhile, the three-month annualized Pce is 2.1 percent and you've achieved this Uh without going to your 5.1 percent uh funds rate which is what you have pencil in for this year.

Um, and you've also achieved it without the one percentage Point increase in the unemployment rate which you have penciled in for this year. I'm wondering if you've considered the idea whether or not um, your understanding of the inflation Dynamic may be wrong and it's possible to achieve these things without raising rates that high and also without um, uh, without the surge of unemployment. And specifically I wonder if you might comment on the speech given by Vice chair LEL Brainerd who said to the extent that inputs other than wages may be responsible in part for important price increases for some non-housing Services an unwinding of these factors. In other words, it may not be wages, the idea that it may not require unemployment rising to get this sector of inflation under control.

Thanks. So a couple things First, on the on the forecast. If you're right, if you take very short term three three months, say, measures of Pce core PC Inflation They're quite low right now, but that's because that's driven by uh, you know, significantly negative readings from Goods Inflation. Most forecasters and Uh would would think that the the significantly negative readings will be transitory and that there we go again, transitory fairly soon back up to its longer run trend of something around zero something like that.

So a lot of forecasts would call for core Pce to go back up to four percent by the middle of the year, for example. So that's really where the sustainable level is is more like at four percent, so that would suggest there's there's work left to do. Uh, you know. Let's let's say inflation does come down much faster than we expect, which is which is possible.

As I mentioned, you know, obviously our policy is data dependent. We would take that into account in terms of of, um, the non sorry, the core non-housing Services As I mentioned earlier, it's a very diverse sector. six or seven sectors, and um, so sectors that represent 55 or 60 percent of that uh sub sector. so of that sector.

um are we think are sensitive to slack in the economy? sensitive to the labor market in a way, but some of the other sectors are not. And for example, you know Financial Services is a big sector that's really not driven by by uh, by uh, uh, labor labor markets wages. Um, so that's why I Said there are a number of things that will affect take take restaurants right. So clearly labor is important for restaurants, but so are food prices.

And you know transportation services is going to be driven by by fuel prices, for example. So there are lots of things in that mix that will drive inflation. I Would say overall though, my own view would be that you're not going to have a, you know, a sustainable return to two percent inflation in that sector without a better balance in the labor market. and um I don't know what that will require in terms of of increased unemployment.

Your question: um I Do think there are a number of Dimensions through which the labor market can soften and so far we've we've got as I mentioned in Goods we have inflation moving down without the softening in the labor market. I Think most forecasters would say that uh, that unemployment will probably rise a bit from here, but I still think I continue to think that there's a path to getting inflation back down to two percent without a really significant economic decline or a significant increase in unemployment. And that's that's because this the you know, the setting we're in is quite different. The the inflation that we originally got was very much a collision between very strong demand and hard Supply constraints.

not something that you really have seen in in Prior Uh, you know in Prior business cycles. And so now we see Goods inflation coming down for the reasons we thought and um, we we understand why housing inflation will come down and I think we'll A story will emerge on on the uh, non-housing Services sector soon enough. but I think there is. There's ongoing disinflation and we don't yet see.

uh, you know we don't yet see weakening in the labor market, so we'll have to see. Certainly possible. Yeah, absolutely, it's possible. You know it's a question no one really knows I think it's because this is this.

This is not like the other business Cycles in so many ways. um, it may well be. Uh, that as that it will take more slowing than than we expect than I Expect to get inflation down to two percent, but I don't I don't That's not my base case. My base case is that uh, the economy can return to two percent inflation without a really significant downturn or a really big increase in unemployment I Think that's that's a possible outcome.

Um I Think many many forecasters would say it's not the most likely outcome, but but I would say there's there's a there's a chance of it uh Michael McKee from Bloomberg TV and radio I'd like to pick up on uh, what you were jus