All right Okay, foreign dude. oh brother oh brother, what's going on? What's going on? what's going on? Happy Valentine's Day Whoa brother, we're getting a little crazy. I'm wearing my tulip shirt there to celebrate happy Valentine's Day To everyone happy CPI Day To all those of you who celebrate, it's gonna get wild. This is by far the most insane ridiculous announcement basically until the BCE report next week.

I Love how all these get hyped up as like the most important thing ever and people act that way and they trade that way and then like within a couple days. there's another massively important thing. So happy CPI day Happy Valentine's Day this is your last reminder that it is Valentine's Day Don't forget it. Go buy chocolate covered strawberries or roses or I don't know uh gift card to Texas Roadhouse Do whatever you need to do but it is Valentine's Day Please do not forget any of that I Hope you guys are ready I Hope you are ready for all the craziness that's about to come into the markets.

We are a mere eight minutes away, so so we're gonna get kind of everyone a little bit more prep for what these numbers mean, what to look for? So with all that being said, let me hop over now because obviously it is pretty important. So first of all, why does the CPI report matter? The Consumer Price Index report: It's a measure of inflation, so we're going to be getting not just that, but we're going to get core versus headline. And basically you look at all these little different aspects of it. Hang on.

They haven't updated this right here. So Consumer Price Index That's basically how expensive have things gotten on a relative basis for you? The consumer for me, the consumer. The things we buy. and they split it up into all these different categories.

And then when you look at the course API it's that same number, but not including food or energy. So you strip that out and that's what your core CPI is. And once again, they do it month over month. They do it year over year.

and it's just a measure of inflation. How expensive are things that we are commonly buying? That's what the Consumer Price Index Report is. That's what CPI stands for. So that comes out at 8 30 a.m.

And the reason it's important right now is because we know inflation's been really, really bad. We peaked that 9.1 percent I Want to say in June Most recently with Six Five. This time around, they are expecting 6.2 percent I Want everyone to know that they looked at all these fancy schmancy analysts with the fancy schmancy degrees on their wall and they decided 6.2 is the average. They ask them all individually, they average out those guesses and right now everyone's kind of looking in roughly at Six Two, some are coming in at Six Three, Somewhere At Six One, most are in at Six Two.

And that has an impact because if we come in hot, if we come in higher than expected, there's a better chance of this Fed rate. we're currently at 4.5 percent. and as of now, there's an 87.8 chance that in the next meeting, which is going to be in late March we're gonna get another 25 Bips. So this Fed Fund rate.

It has the trickle-down effect of increasing your everything that relates to interest payments. So if you're talking about whether your credit card payments, whether you're talking about your mortgage rate, whether you're talking about, uh, anything, credit card, your student loans, all that stuff. it all starts with the FED fund rate that's trickling down from there. So people want to know if that Fed fund rate is going to increase.

There's a better chance of this increasing if inflation is worse than expected. Remember, this isn't really a game of magnitude as in is the number Six Two Six Three, It's more of the number relative to two Expectations: Higher or lower than expectations if we come in hot as in higher than expected, Look for these numbers to shoot up that you see Actually, there's a chance that this one will shoot up over here on the right that you can't see because my head's blocking it. So this would be increasing the chances of 50 bips, right, hike and then look for this number to drop. That's if we come in hotter than expected.

How will that look in the market? It'll be a bloody red Valentine's Day On the flip side, if we come in cooler than expected, you'll look for this 12 number to drop. You're going to look for this number to probably increase, increase, get closer to 100, and then also probably be met by a lot of green and explosive bullish action in the market. So a high number hot number. look for chaos to ensue.

To the downside, if we come in lower cooler than expected, look for the Bulls to just completely Stampede over the Bears today. that's pretty much what we're looking at. Once again, the Line in the Sand is 6.2 percent. We find out in three minutes.

Here's a quick Snapshot from Gergavin over how the market has reacted on CPI days. As you can see, not really a clear Trend Uh, it's not like most of these are green. most of them are red. In fact, it's actually pretty much 50 50.

I would argue that here you could see when the CPI has been coming in. Uh, and it's pretty much ensuring that we're going to get these brutal rate hikes. We've seen those red days, but most recently over the last four. CPI October November December The Market's been up.

uh, the last two. Nothing that crazy. December we're up 0.73 January we were up 0.34 Not even a percent. Uh.

November When we gained 5.5 5.54 in the day. That was crazy. That was a massive massive move in the day. So I Just want to bring that to your attention that there's not a clear bias to the for the Bulls there's not a clear bias for the Bears.

Sometimes the Bulls really win, Sometimes the Bears really win. You're pretty much flipping in a coin. I would not be predictive of this I'd wait for the report to come out and be like, okay, that's either good or bad. Uh, this is an environment in my humble opinion, to be reactive.

Not so much much predictive. One thing I do want to let you know of just from a seasonality standpoint that today is actually seasonally bullish. I Have it right here. This is all up on locals.

Over the past 25 years I Examined this day, particularly at first it kind of did nothing, and then about 10 years ago, it really started to have a strong bullish sentiment to it. So uh, the Bulls won 56 percent of the time. better than flipping a coin. but the profit Factor was pretty solid at 1.76 So I just want to let you know seasonally how today plays out, what's gone on over the most recent CPI reports and where the line is currently in the sand, it is at 6.2 percent.

So with all that being said, not live. Oh I want to reload that we definitely want. and then I have the Bureau of Labor Statistics thing up over here. So as soon as the report is public, we can get into the finer details of the minutia of it.

but I just want to make sure the volume ready and all of this so we're going to play that. but then we're gonna also have the right here. Well, right now, the overall: Market it's up in pre-market In fact, there's actually a downside: Gap Fill 2, 4, 12, 97 I Also put that on locals a downside: Gap Filter 412.97 so make sure you are aware of that. But let's get up to the Daily 412.97 I might as well Mark that out now just for all my Gap fill Traders There we go.

412.97 That's the downside Gap though right now in pre-market the market is up. The spies up 0.33 Things are looking decent right now, but it's all going to be changing pretty freaking soon. Uh, why are they not live yet? All right, let me get up the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report uh Bureau of Labor statistics. All right.

as soon as the report drops, I'll have this so we'll be able to get into all the specific details. but in terms of the headline and the core report, um, they're going to be announced live pretty quickly. Let's get ready. Let's get ready.

All right. Welcome back to school. 15 seconds. Let's see if someone front runs this: January CPI inflation number Uh, you're looking post your guests.

Are you bullish or bearish? Everyone comment your guess quick, You only have a couple seconds. five seconds post post about 97 points s p Futures Up by 13 the NASDAQ someone front running into. The downside for the last couple of weeks in here is yielding 3.679 So getting back towards 3.7 let's get it over to Rick Santelli Rick Here we go. Yes, the January read on the Consumer Price Index headline number expected to be up five tenths one percent delivers exactly that.

up half of one percent. And we know that minus one tenth originally released for December was modified a week ago with Benchmark revisions up, two tests up one tenth a month over month core and headline inline Point Pi versus point Five Point Four versus point four in energy. also up exactly the expected amount of up four tens. Now the big numbers all right here: CPI Year over year and this number has been going down.

It is six point, four percent, six point four percent higher than expected. We were expecting 6.2 and it is the fourth number in a row in this series to move lower. And if we look at last time, we're expecting 5.5 It is higher at 5.6 but is sequentially lower than the 5.7 in the rear view mirror extending the Run of seven of seven Uh, from the excuse me, excuse me on the core, this is four in a row at 5.6 6.4 headline is seven in a row down from Nine Point One percent that was in June and that was the four decade high. Now here's the fly in the ointment why rates are going up.

Even though the year-over-year numbers are each one tenth lower than the rear view mirror, they are both a little higher than expectations: 6.43 6.2 5.6 was expect expected to be 5.5 And here's the rub. Okay, if you take X food and energy and then X Shelter that's now known as the Super Core now I Can't dig down into the data that deep, but many are doing that as we speak Because Shelter last look in December When we were up year over year, 5.7 percent was over 50 percent of that number. So Super Core is important because all of a sudden the Federal Reserve is very and we're already back. We went from 4 14.50 all the way down.

we're at 370. We're right, and we're 66 367. pre-number The pre-dow Futures are hovering just about at the same spot. And remember if they go much over 34 407 and they're closed, that would be the highest number going all the way back to January 17th on an intraday basis.

So this number might be higher than expectations on you. Don't ask if it's bullish I Don't interpret it as bullish at all the markets seem to be taking. Inflation is higher than expected. Now back to the panel.

That's not all right. Stay with us. We want to bring in a few more voices on this too. Our senior Economics reporter Steve Leesman Netta Issa who is former deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary under George W Bush and associate professor at Georgetown and Jason Fuhrman who is a Harvard professor and former Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama Steve We will go to you first to kind of dig this through.

Rick's right, the market swooned on this because this is a very important number. Kind of took a look at it and came back to where we started almost with the futures 31. not necessarily Becky though in oh, now we've got to move the other way. yeah, you get this bounced around I I'm I'm gonna say Rick is right on that.

There was a a moment there where they tightened up a bit on the FED funds Futures but now they've loosened up I'll come back to that in a second. I Think the story here is energy. uh giveth and energy taketh away. We were up again.

Uh, two percent on energy. So some of the a lot of the decline in the headline that we've had has been energy related food once again up 0.5 percent. We did get some help which was sort of unexpected from used car prices down 1.9 percent. Um, but a key here is that shelter or housing up 0.7 percent.

We can't get a break in terms of getting what we think are some of the indicators outside to the index when it happens that will help in this all. Sort of underscores this idea which has been coming from the FED that the road to distance inflation is going to be a bumpy one. And just one other thing. if I Read this correctly, workers did get a raise 0.7 percent rise in real earnings uh for January And and that's the reason why we've had some people rethinking the weakness of the consumer.

Uh, in January after two bad months last year Becky so uh, still an issue as to whether or not growth is going to cool quite as much as I've been expected. Especially crazy when you look at the difference between what the wage they got nominally I mean down to 4 11 30. this is a situation where the market looks at it and says no news is good news basically. um I'm not so sure of that I think given that we've start, we started this journey now almost a year ago.

um I would have, uh, expected that we'd be further along. I mean it is good news I Don't think this is good news. Completion's not, uh, going up, but it's also not really coming down very much. And what worries me still is the labor market.

We've seen no signs at all that the market has, uh, the labor market has slowed down. We had a very strong Jobs report last month. um, and I Still worry that we're not getting a good handle on that. Meaning, meaning you think that the FED is going to continue to act.

even if we don't see higher inflation, because the strong labor market is going to force their hand, they will assume that inflation will come roaring back. Well, to me, this report confirms that the FED needs to be aggressive. I Don't know. of course.

I have I think they've been sending somewhat mixed signals over the last. Let's see how this change: 87.8 Um, um, we still have a ways to go. Yeah, they haven't updated this. This will definitely have a movement.

Most likely this percentage will go up or this percentage slow down. And then and towards the end of this year, inflation comes back up again, which makes it even harder down the road. Mr Furman Do you agree with that assessment? I Think the markets are just ridiculously complacent about the inflation situation right now. I Look at tips I Look at swaps, there have break evens of inflation of around two percent.

I Just don't see that I Don't see how we have inflation much below three percent. Um, this year I Don't see it coming down Uh, below that without a decent sized recession. And nothing in this numbers gives me Comfort Yeah, it's not a surprise relative to the expectations we had yesterday, but compared to the narrative we had a month ago where we thought inflation was coming down, where we thought, you know, um, it was jumping off from a low point. We now have Core this month at an annualized rate just for the month of January of 5.1 percent.

Even if you take out shelter which is lagged and the used cars, the so-called Super Core, you're at an annual rate of 4.3 percent for this month. That's faster than the pace in the last two months. And that is with some special things that we're helping. um, used cars.

We got more relief there than we were expecting to. Medical Services Also fell. Those aren't things you can count on continuing to happen. So I Think this inflation issue, um is real I Don't think it's going away anytime soon.

and I think anyone who's overly calm about it is making me nervous. Okay, so Jason how do you explain what we heard? This is a palette. It seems like absolutely so many times that made the market think, okay, the FED is starting. maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong.

Incredibly unreasonable. I'm looking for the market. He doesn't expect inflation to come down. Um, without the labor market loosening some and that the labor market hasn't loosened some.

He says we haven't. What time is the CPI It's already out eight minutes ago. Core: Services I Like how it changes right there. So I think his words have not been been.

you know, fully consistent in this regard, but he often says I think the right thing and people aren't listening and you know Financial Conditions have eased a lot. I Think the FED is going to need to do something about those financial conditions. Whether it can do it with words and dots and things like that at the next meeting is one possibility, but it might need to go down a six-point hike to really get too many bulls loaded up and put in place the economic conditions that really could start to bring down this inflation that remains very, very high. Rick Your reaction: What do you think would happen to the markets if there was suddenly a 50 basis point hike at the next meeting to try and grab our attention? Do they update this I Want to see the odds of this 50 basis invert even more because the FED most likely I just haven't updated I'm really thinking that this percentage of 50 bips is now higher I'd rather look at it.

maybe not crazy higher, but I bet it's higher. The assimilation and accommodation of current numbers seven in a row in terms of headline year over year, drops in inflation sequentially four in a row for year over year. Core that is, the concrete tangible can hold it in my hand. Even though seasonal adjustments and a lot of issues may make the numbers slippery, numbers have always been slippery.

This is what Traders have to work with and they are working with it. If you look at the Dow futures high of the session today, the high of the session from an intraday basis was the high set contract traded for all of 2023. and I'm sorry if I'm going to make a bet on the back half or end of this year as to what position I want in the marketplace I Don't know that I would put all of my chips on economists and the the soothsayers of the future. I Think I'll go with the markets.

They will continually update as information available and but I'm sorry. Can we talk about that sequently left people trade to make? Can we talk about that sequential decline in inflation? Yeah. Jason Make your point and then we'll go to Steve Yeah. Look, we had an inflation rate at nine percent.

It's come down to 6.4 6.4 is incredibly high. No one ever thought that nine percent was going to last. No one. The FED doesn't.

look at the 12-month moving out. You know what they're looking at what's going on in the months they did. They were wrong. They said it would last.

They were wrong. No one thought inflation was going to stay nine percent. No wrong with wrong with you. How long was this is ridiculous? Listen: Jason Why would I put my money on you versus the market give me one good reason why I would do that? Dude, this guy here to do is recite what the market thinks: it's not that useful.

So I'm making my input. Maybe it's useful. Maybe Oh, it is useful I Just tell you I think six percent inflation is a lot higher than most of us thought it would be. At this, it is number one and in six months it'll be longer than that.

Jose Thank you I agree with that too. This won't be too. You're wrong. I Never said 52 percent Rick What what? Go ahead, say that Rick Rick and Jason are both missing.

The point here is that there is very little difference between the FED Outlook and the Market Outlook This is the big story. I'm a little confused how Jason can say that the FED needs to tighten Financial conditions when in fact Financial conditions have tightened dramatically. This thing is working in a really I want to say good way in the sense that if you can call up that fed right out of them, look at it. Right now, you have the market peaking at 5 20 through the market.

Actually that the FED funds futures for the uh, the August contract is above the FED for year-end which is a good place to look. We're at 495, the FED is at five and an eighth. So Rick I'm not sure that there's you know the economists are kind of saying the same thing economists. Actually, you're talking about the prices P 500 the price of the NASDAQ, the price of the Dow and interest rates.

Obviously no obviously what economists some of the investors see at this point are two different things and we watch that play out in the markets every day. You can even watch it between the equities Futures and what you're seeing with with treasury prices too. I I Just want to talk about the marketplace. Yeah, what the market think yeah, but but but but Jason The market seems to think the Fed's going to be done.

we're going into recession and they're cutting rates at the end of the year. Um, we could easily have a Fed fundraise that's here because they have to raise every meeting to get rid of this inflation Jason Love you to love you to death. but the cut story is gone. That's yesterday's news.

Those have been going up up near 230 940. so the market has been banking. Who is this Jason guy I Don't think look in the stock market for the stock market to view on either the Fed or rates because it's not a as clear a picture as when I look at the FED funds, futures or at the interest rate complex. That's where I look for my clue for what the market thinks about the Fed and right now there's very good alignment.

Okay I want to get a quick comment from Netta How long of a lag delay do you think there will be for all the the race she's gonna hop in and fight too I hope so all that we hit at some lady because of what's already been done. So my so my view is we have done the easy part. It's from now until the two percent. Target if we're still aiming for that, it's going to take quite a bit more.

so I'm uh with Jason on this one I think we have not seen after nearly a year it feels like it's going to go down much of a Slowdown in the job market without that I don't see how we get down to uh anywhere near the two percent uh inflation. so I think there may be there is a lag but I just I don't see that it's it's gonna get get us that much further down the road we have a we have a ways to go. All right I Want to thank our entire panel today and hope to see all of you back soon. Thank you Jesus Coming up Uh, the always outspoken hedge fund manager Kyle Bass is going to join us to talk about the collection of unidentified objects shot down over North America this month, at least one of which was definitely from China and possibly the others.

We'll discuss it all with them. After this, they bring in a hedge fund dude to talk about. Really? you're bringing in a hedge fund guy to talk about UFOs that's that's crazy. Well folks, for those of you who are like, what does all this mean, here's what you need to know.

We got the newest inflation report. It came out at 8 30. you can see exactly where 8 30 was because the market was doing nothing and then bada bing bada Boom It got its socks rocked. Huge volume Spike Huge trading bar and it dumped.

The reason it dumped is because inflation came in higher than expected. The reason this is bearish for the market? because if inflation is coming in hotter, higher than expected, that means that the FED has to be more aggressive in fighting inflation. If they're more aggressive in fighting inflation, they have to lower demand. If you lower demand, that's not good for the overall market.

So high inflation means more serious fighting. More serious fighting means lowering demand. Lowering demand pushes the market down. Now strangely, there's a big push to the upside to me.

I Mean in real time with all of you here I Was saying hey, that didn't make sense whatsoever and it only was two minutes of a pop and then it just got crushed. Uh, right now, when inflation comes in higher than expected, this is just generically been a bearish development. I As of now now I Know from a seasonal perspective, today is a bullish day I Understand if you even look at Market structure. Things have been pretty good lately.

I Mean we popped. we had a realistic pullback. Then we started to push again. I Don't think this is going to end well for the Bulls today.

I'm putting my thesis out there I'm hey I've been wrong before I'm going to be wrong in the future, but just I have no reason to be bullish on the day now because we just got bad inflation. now. obviously if the price action tells me that no, everyone's still buying and it's going to be rippity skippity doo da for my day trades, I'll be bullish. but right now in terms of my spy puts in terms of my Tesla puts I'm gonna hold them because why would I get out of them right? We just got a high inflation report.

Uh hey man, good job and bring the news to the table. As always, shout out Tom what's going on Tom I hope you're having a good one I was just watching your palantir stuff I like it I need to get a little bit more informed on palantir. She's kind of my go-to guy for anyone uh who is curious about Pltr. just had their earnings folks.

High inflation. Uh, this right here. This seems like quite a bit of to me. 831 832 It's crazy that the market popped this much on high inflation.

Uh, maybe you caught it, but kind of a strange term that's not the most common. but they're now talking. We have headline inflation which is hang on. Let me get this volume taken care of.

Payment capitals I Want to listen to this guy about the UFO But I also want to get into this New Concept that they're talking about Super Core. So we have headline inflation and we have Core. And now we have Super Core. And a lot of people are focusing on this right here of how shelter is going higher and higher and higher.

so we should dive into that I Know it's a little bit in the weeds I Know it's a little bit boring, but it really is now having a big impact on the market. so I want to talk about that? But first, all right, they just want to break so what you need to know, especially if this is your first time hearing about it. Here's the Tldr of the situation: Consumer Price Index That's what CPI stands for. It is just how expensive are things and that's why we start with all items and it covers just how the increase in decrease in the cost of food energy Vehicles Apparel, medicine, shelter, All that stuff.

So that is the 6.4 Reading The expectation was 6.2 I have the 64.6.4 This is year over year. Um, they were expecting 0.5 month over month. or they were expecting 0.4 and it came in at 0.5 Excuse me. But anyway, year over year, this is that initial negative reaction.

People thought this would say 6.2 It said 6.4 We were higher than expected. Then the next thing that people like to look at is what does this look like when you take out food and energy that's known as core? CPR CPI all items less food and energy. 5.6 Once again, that is higher than expecting. They were expecting 5.5 And now this is this whole concept of well, what does this look like when you also take out shelter? And that's the whole core thing or the super core thing Which this is like I Don't know the first cycle that they really decide to like get into this.

but anyway, the reason they're doing it is because shelter is a huge percentage of these increases because shelter just keeps getting higher and higher and higher. One positive thing that favors the Bulls is actually used cars. Uh, continuing to drop. which is nice.

I Mean right here You could see month over month over the past half year now. Uh, we're continually dropping. so that's good for used cars because they were really ripping their um, new vehicles still going up, but ever so slightly. It is nice to see that the used vehicles are coming down.

Are there any other major things that jump out at me? Fuel oil year over year is up 27.7 percent, Utilities are up 26.7 percent, Used cars have actually dropped 11.6 Transportation is up 14.6 Uh, food is up 10.1 percent year over year and food away from home is up 11.3 year over year. Uh, this fuel oil one is ridiculous. 27.7 27.7 utilities up I mean uh, we have electricity up. What is it? 11.9 Year over year, electricity is up 11.9 It's not just in your head, folks.

like things really truly do. they're they're more expensive. Spy bull trap. Uh I Thought this was the Trap right here this big pop to the upside.

who knows I mean this is my opinion and the market basically ends up trading at what the majority of people think that is the market. Collective But for me, when it doesn't make sense that we have a Green Day in my mind maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but it does not make sense in my mind to have a Green Day When Inflation comes in hotter higher than expected. We're not like Snoop Dogg level high, but we're pretty high. Um, actually.

oh interesting. So now we the percentages did change and it's firming up people's opinion. I Guess on the 25 bips right hike, it went up by two percent. which I find odd I thought right here instead of 12 I Thought this was going to get up to 15 or 20 percent chance of a 50 bibs because it was higher than expected.

Maybe they're just liking some of the underlying data points Maybe I Don't know, we're gonna have to dive into that I Just wanted everyone to kind of get the tldr of the situation just so you're a little bit better prep for today. Well, while we're waiting for some. Oh wait, the hedge fund manager is talking about UFOs Well, how can we skip that recent days? Because we got the Yukon we got: South Carolina North Carolina wherever. Meanwhile, the military says the U.S has now recovered some key Electronics from the original Chinese balloon.

That's good I don't know how to go down pretty deep for that. Maybe joining us now to talk about what this could all mean for the U.S China Relationship, business ties, and just what he knows in general. UFO and CIO Carl Bath Tell us what. Uh, start with what you do know and then tell us what you actually think it all means.

Well, we We know that the sensors that were loaded on the on the original balloon that was shot down off from Myrtle Beach South Carolina Uh, were not weather sensors. You know we. We all talk about it on Imaging and I think it's important to think about what a stationary balloon loaded with Quantum sensors can could actually map. So um, I believe that Those sensors uh, were mapping the gravitational field and the structure of the earth and it can do that down about a kilometer.

Do you remember where it was? where it was sitting over? Montana it was sitting over our Minute Man uh missile Ranch there ICBM Base Uh, I Think that that Chinese spy balloon was mapping the underground architecture of our um, one of our most valuable assets. and uh uh, the Minuteman ICBM missiles in Montana So yeah, this is. this is a problem for uh Seno Us relations I mean we just had Congress vote 419-0 Uh on uh uh condemning the raisin Chinese spy balloon Bipartisan. Get this: Congress to vote 419-0 on the sun setting in the west.

Uh, so it is one place where our lawmakers are starting to really think more about our national security. So what would that information allow them to do? And is it? Do we have to think of it as as some type of ominous thing? Wouldn't we like to know the infrastructure of Uh of a similar facility in China And and aren't we probably trying to figure it out one way or another as well Or sure. Is this a hospital? Nothing like a little UFO Talk to get our training day started. Hostile Act Yeah I mean it's it's a direct incursion into our airspace Administration Oh I decided to shoot it down.

We can't be armchair quarterbacks about whether we should have shot it down over Montana or or the Midwest or the East Coast I Think they really wanted to wait until they could shoot it down over a fairly shallow water. Uh, and we had catch boats out there. So you again I think I think our government actually did its job. We sent jamming signals up to the balloon as soon as we found it.

and and we're we're We're now studying the contents of of what we could reclaim uh at that at the moment. And you know when we talk about what relations between the US and China are. There's still this big gap between Wall Street and the IC. You know the the Director of National Intelligence submits a report every year uh to Congress detailing the next year's threats, the largest threats to U.S National Security.

China's topped that list for many years and yet on Wall Street Here, we can't wait to buy the next IPO in Hong Kong of a Chinese company. Market Looking a little weak again one time Joe This has got to stop. So the uh, you figure that the information they gathered was sent back so they didn't need to retrieve it from they already have it. But whatever they they gather.

So you've talked about uh, farmland in in close proximity to sensitive military bases while being bought by China So is this all part of the same? Um I guess. plan for them and it doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to use this information. I'm sure we're Gathering similar information we want to know. It doesn't mean we're going to start something with China just if we gather intelligence.

Yeah, I mean Joe You look at there. they play an asymmetric Warfare game I mean how they wrote the book on asymmetric Warfare And they allow them access to our social media. We allow them access to buying big swaths of land between our most active military bases and our borders. We allow Huawei to sell uh, um, Telecom equipment uh, cheaper than it costs to manufacture it in rural areas around all of our military bases.

We still haven't ripped all the Huawei equipment out around all of our rural military bases. They ex. the Chinese government exploits every nook and cranny of our openness. Joe And what we've got to figure out at some point in time is that we've made a bet on China back.

Uh, when? when Kissinger uh uh decided to go over there in the early 70s and pivot from Russia to China uh. And we made that bet hoping that if we invited their students into our universities and we invite their Uh people to travel in the West, that they would see about on the population running it as a totalitarian, uh, almost dictator. And so we have to realize that the bet that we made it was a good bet. At the time, it turned out to be a Bad Bet and now on.

Wall Street in Corporate America What we've got to do is start going the other way. Uh, and and not relying on a government that doesn't share our values that is clearly the number one threat to our national security must wake up You would? Well do. You guys agree with that? Do we need to stop economically supporting China Our investments happening is the interests of our multinationals and so you're saying that has to change? Yeah, I mean Joe We should have We We should have learned this lesson many times in the past. If you remember the US and the and our allies were were actually funding Germany's rebuild of their of their military capabilities post World War one uh and we helped build the German military machine that ended up uh, bringing us into World War II uh it we did the same thing with Russia I mean uh, Putin took Crimea and Sebastopol in 2014 and we acted like uh, nothing was wrong and we our our financial institutions kept buying Russian government runs uh companies because they were cheap and um, you know back when I was working on compliance programs, sanctions compliance programs in 2017, I was trying to shake some uh, some boards of investment firms to say hey, why Market's still looking a little heavy given what right here he's just showing us he's going to do well.

If you reach, it looks like it's starting to dip again and you pay close attention to what the Chinese Communist Party 411 forcibly take Taiwan they will forcibly reunify with Taiwan The rhetoric has become extremely bellicose and alarming in the last time. What the hell does that we've got about? We have less than a minute left at this point. You've seen kind of a passive demonstrating aggression and willingness to fight, a group of bellicosed patrons demonstrating aggression. Do you think this event itself is a watershed bellicose? I Think it's just the next ratchet.

When you look at uh, the way the Chinese government and Military has handled, let's just say relations, it is the word of the day. Now you know they they ran a zone defense in the 2014, then they start. Then they went to a man defense post 2014 and uh, now post Pelosi's visit. They're on a full court press and now Blinkins canceled his trip as a result of the Chinese spy balloon and we've got McCarthy headed over there.

If you just think about the ratchet only moves. One Way Joe Uh, and so is it. Is it an important incident? Yes, I Think it galvanized the American public to realize that the Chinese government isn't our friend. This is not a great power in this competition on China right now, Nothing those Rules of Engagement and therefore there's more to come.

Work we we. We're turning up our radar to see. You know, make sure that we can see the next one. and I I Guess this is we're like in the middle of this whole incident and it's continuing.

Kyle Thanks Uh, we've got a uh, we've got got to toss it over to Squawk on the street in a second. but it's good to have you on Kyle bass and uh, where are we right now? up 14. make sure you go ahead. Andrew Oh, I'm sure you join us tomorrow.

Let's both do it together. Happy Valentine's Day Love Is in the Air it is. See you tomorrow. What a way to end it.

All right? All right? What? Uh, we already got the word of the day. Um, we have four fed speakers today, all in EST Uh, 9 30 we have Barkin 11 A.M we have Logan 11 30, we have Harker and 205 we have Williams Let me write that down just so in the future we know once again. So right when the Market opens, we are running. Um, apparently the FED is running a zone defense today and they're zoning it from 9, 30, 11, 11, 30 and then 205 and it goes barking.

It goes Logan it goes Harker and it goes Williams Okay, so lots of fed people talking. Today we got the CPI report. it dropped at 8 30. I'm expecting the market to sell on this.

Uh, it is down right now from I Mean basically right beforehand we were training at 414. We're now down to just below 413. I Think as soon as this snaps 411, there's going to be some fear in the market. It's just to me, it would make not much sense if the market goes up today.

Inflation came in higher than expected. I.E The FED needs to be more aggressive, So then the question is, do they have room to be more aggressive I Would wholeheartedly argue Yes, Because unemployment is at like a five decade low, we have an extremely tight labor market. They have no reason to not be aggressive. It is honestly that simple.

The economic metrics that they're worried about pushing us into recession is telling us by their own reports that they have a ways to go before it's quote unquote a danger level so that they're looking at it and like, well, okay, inflation's still higher than expected, so we need to still fight inflation. They have no reason to not fight this higher inflation and based on these reports, I'm I'm fully expecting this to go down now I don't have a crystal ball I can't guarantee anything but I feel confident in my current position I have spy puts I have Tesla puts and I sold a bunch of premium and I'll probably end up selling more premium today as well. But I just want to kind of give you guys the tldr at least of how I view this situation Mt pocket hey Matt thanks for keeping it real. That's why I'm here.

Shout out I Appreciate 24 months now You even have that official like kind of purple Diamond duck thing that's awesome. Shout out empty Pockets thanks Ben Thank you thank you thank you. So when the FOC happens, why does the market go crazy? Because that's the the official announcement of what they're doing with interest rates. So the reason people care about the CPI report the reason people care about the Pce report is people are using this to try to predict what the Fed's going to do at the Fomc meeting and then obviously so like they're using this.

they're like Okay so this one came in higher. So at the Fomc meeting, they're probably going to be more aggressive and then when they announce it, it's the official news. But also the Fomc meeting is a little bit different because it's not just the announcement as in the actual like what are we doing going up by 25 bips, 50 bips, 70 bips. It's also how Pal answers certain questions that the Market's like.

all right they're they're trying to glean any information of like is he going to continue to be hawkish or is he going to switch to Dovish in the near future type of a thing. So that one has the Fomc like speech and press conference a lot of people are trying to like do a human analysis of PALS like overall tonality. but what is Super Ultra Mega Core Inflation I Guess that's when you just take out everything. So like what is inflation where we consider nothing.

That's the super Super Ultra Magna Core Inflation AMC needs a market crash. Um no that would if the market crash it would bring AMC with it. There's there's some weird theories out there that think that if the market crashes somehow that would be good for AMC's stock price. Uh I Want it known that there's no in my opinion, there's no validity in that.

Of course I could be wrong. but I Just don't see how a company that is reliant on people using disposable income. They have a lot of debt, so they're going to be. The success of Like fundamentally depends a lot on their debt payments and what are those interest payments on their debt and being able to get more money? It just I I Don't margin calls for us when the markets crash.

not if you're short the the this theory of markets crashing being good for AMC. It's not true because we saw the market have a bear market last year and AMC also fell. That doesn't make sense AMC was net negative last year and so was the market. At one point the market was down over 25 percent.

If that was true, you would see AMC going up. It's just we we you could use last year as kind of like your input and you'll see that as the market was going down so was AMC It just aims the CEO on. Permanent Vacation Watching movies flying all over the country, wasting his company's money among many other things. When he does do things he's pissing away money on like very expensive celebrities to do AMC commercials.

How much was that? Like 25 mil for that lady? Um, well, what's her name who's in the AMC commercial that was very expensive That was actually as expensive essentially as the investment into hymc like I didn't know advertising went for that much. She just did a couple commercials like that just blows my mind. Nicole Kidman Yeah I didn't know that she I could even demand I What was she paid? Like 20 mil? 25 mil? That's a lot of money plus someone they want new stadiums and could extract clean lithium. Oh that kind of reminds me of the other wild thing.

Have you guys seen what's going on in Ohio with the uh, that train and that crazy ass that Spilled Out of the train and they're trying to burn it off and now people's like young or smaller animals are dying like chickens and some cats and some dogs. Um, everyone in that Ohio River Basin Area like this is, it's crazy. Um I I if you're in that area I I Hope you're all good I Hope you're all safe. There's just been a slew of pretty negative bad news lately, so we have that.

I Don't know how many of you guys were paying attention to it, but there was a shooter on the MSU campus last night. There were people who were injured. Uh, the situation is now taken care of. The shooter ended up taking his own life late last night.

Uh, but craziness. So if you're in the Michigan area, if you're in the Ohio area and it wasn't there another one that went off the rails in like a Carolina A lot of just crazy stuff going on right now. So I hope everyone's good I hope if you're tuning in to this, everything in your life is A-Okay because there's definitely some serious negative things going on. um Republicans are derailing trains I don't think so I mean this.

this Ohio thing could be far more catastrophic than people are giving it, um, any credit for. and I see a lot of people on Twitter pointing out this fact. but it kind of blows my mind that mainstream media is not really covering this Ohio news whatsoever. The only thing I saw about it was people were really meming on uh Pete Budapes or however the hell you say his last name because like this should be his domain, he's the Secretary of Transportation and he's like nowhere to be found Texas South Carolina and Louisiana near Cleveland I'm all right I think I'm not I Don't study water basins or river basins or any of that.

I just know it's like nuts and I'm watching these videos of all these little critters are dying with this ass that's in there. Apparently they're trying to burn it off that it's just it's not good, it's not good. And then they have that. and then there's the shooter on MSU which is crazy sad people are just it's it's nuts.

people are just crazy nuts. MSM Will vary the trains for the Department of Transportation failed to uphold safety regulations. Um yeah I Feel like this is not only in the like life toll like just people like you don't know like this. The acid apparently that fell is carcinogenic.

um as in it can cause people to get cancer. So how do you put a dollar value on that? It's going to ruin land I mean no one's going to want to live there. If it like is proven to be very very bad, it's going to drive the land prices down. Uh, the water basin.

It spreads very large so if that's where people get their water and that's tainted. This is a lot of people are saying like this is our it's like the Ohio Chernobyl um I I very much don't want it to break that way. obviously like that's just it would be crazy to desire that. but uh this could be very very bad.

This could be very very bad. Uh 100K is a fair price for U.S Citizen life that seems way too low. way too low. It all planned I I Don't know if I buy that like it could be like I'm not so naive to think that our government doesn't do crazy, but I I wouldn't see the advantage of them.

So if it is planned, someone had to plan it for a particular reason. like it had to benefit them. and I don't necessarily see this being a benefit to anyone. Um I I This is probably a huge embarrassment to the administration.

It's definitely an embarrassment to mainstream media because they're not properly covering it like I just don't see who's benefiting off of it if it is planned. Um, the movie when I was predict Ohio Two more derailments yesterday. one in Texas one in South Carolina Why are so many trains getting derailed? Like is there a certain mechanical reason or like I don't know. Like is it this common and for some reason we just don't hear about it that often and now it's just happening all the time.

I'm thoroughly confused, thoroughly confused of why this is happening actually happens a lot. Okay, so is it just more that it's being presented to us now and it seems like a crazy amount? Uh, my buddy handles clean water for the EPA Oddly enough, I can't reach him right now. Jeez, dude. derailments happen like every day.

I'm folks I Know you look at me and you're like this guy. He's probably an expert in everything, but that's one particular zone of knowledge that I just don't have. That's a I'll admit it I'll be man enough to admit my shortcomings to all of you. I Don't have much knowledge in the world of trained derailments and the Cadence at which they occur I'm sorry I'm sorry I know you: come here and you're like dude, this is.

this is our guy Matt he's our Oracle He'll teach us whatever he needs but I don't know everything and the one thing I don't know is any of the stats surrounding train derailments and railments, any form of railing. and I I just don't know it. it's just not something I'm I don't know about railing is what I'm trying to say and I hope you guys get that and I hope you understand that I am I'm a human like you guys I'm just not perfect. Some of you in here you might be like I know all there is to know about railing and good for you I'm jealous I wish I knew more about railing, but here we are here.

we are uh Bitcoin hanging out Midway in this range I still think Bitcoin comes down to 21 000 Ethereum is kind of at its breakdown point right here at 1500. If it can hold, it might have a shot, but if it breaks I would look for a continuation in selling right now the spy. let's look at the daily chart just to Mark out some levels that might be of interest. Obviously the upside breakout comes at 413, but if it goes below 408 I think we're saying hello to 405.

so I would be watching the high in the low of yesterday. You could have played the upside Gap Phil Let me just make this a different color. so I know what we're talking about here. Uh, the upside Gap fill was a valid play this morning in pre-market but now it's kind of been lost because we already got smacked the load.

So if you played it early, if you got it up early and you got a piece of that money, uh, good for you. But now what I'm looking for is basically this this little situation right here. So the midday stop that I want to see how the market reacts to is right around 410. We're currently trading at 4 11 40.

So I want to see how the market reacts to 410 I do think it'll touch it probably relatively early? Obviously not a guarantee. It's just my thoughts that people are going to be reacting to the fact that inflation came in higher than expected I want to see how the market reacts in terms of Supply demand that type of a thing at 410 and if it can't hold that, then I'm watching yesterday's low at 408.25 If 408 to 408, 25 doesn't hold I think we are then once again saying hello to the 405 406 region. On the flip side, if we come out and the Market's like screw it we don't care about inflation or if we bounce hard off of 410 I want to see how the market reacts to yesterday's high at 4 13. if we can get above 413, well then that sets up a test of 4 14.50 So that's what I'm looking for in the overall.

Market Once again not being predictive I will be reactive in my day trades, but in terms of prediction I mean if I if you guys wanted to know my thoughts on today I don't think it's going to be that bullish of a day. I think we are setting up for a bloody Valentine's Day We see the dollar popping. We see the Spy selling. We see the NASDAQ selling.

We see Bitcoin selling. This is all selling in a way that's not surprising whatsoever. Inflation came in higher than expected. When inflation comes in higher than expected a current, especially in the current monetary cycle you connect.

You can definitely expect that they're going to be more aggressive in fighting it because that's literally their job. and when you're more aggressive in fighting it, that pushes the market down. Oh uh. before we really get going, 15 minutes so the Market opens I Know it's annoying to remind you, but it is, uh very very uh helpful to me.

Wait what? uh there is a big error right now on YouTube it says we have 5 000 likes I was gonna go into my whole thing of like hey guys like help me out it helps with the battle Leaderboard on Rumble it helps with the algorithm on YouTube and when I went over to YouTube it says 5 000 likes it says 5159. that is a little crazy I that has to be a mess up I Think it would make more sense as like the 5 000 5.1 five point I don't know what happened there that make like something that's a it says I see 5280 it's probably just 280 and I don't know where the other 5000 came from. Uh, so that's pretty crazy. Five thousand? Like what? That's nuts? Well anyway I guess we don't need Lakes over there, so make sure you're liking on Rumble but that's definitely a bug issue or something's going on on.

YouTube that's really strange. Uh, but don't forget to subscribe. Most importantly, if you enjoyed this. stock Updates: Futures Options, crypto, breaking news.

um sometimes we just mess around and play Hogwarts I Got through the tutorial last night finally and now I think I can actually play the game I think I learned my first spell or some crap like that. but hey, if you just like to hang out, do some degenerate bets, this is the place for you to be. Hit that subscribe button for sure on both Rumble and YouTube. Um, and rumble's nice just because I'm pretty much guaranteed to not get banned over there the way your career is in.

Peril every single day here on YouTube Uh, so like sub, most importantly, sub and also check out what's pinned to the top of chat if you want the same charting software that I have, there's a free trial pinned to the top of chat. this is called Trading View I Love it! I Truly think it's the best charting software out there and you could try it out for one month for free. They have a bunch of different plans. you can even trade through it if you want.

I Personally don't trade through it, but this is called Trading View once again. I Do believe it's the best charting software out there for any of this stuff. Stocks crypto Futures I Absolutely love it pinned to the top of chat Christina Being 19 months, uh, could you give me your thoughts on ocul O-c-u-l Happily Uh oh, we're breaking down fresh low. We just broke through this.

OC u l O C u l O C u l therapy Um, not my really. my wheelhouse I Just don't have much knowledge of this so we could do a technical breakdown. but I can't really speak to the fundamentals. Uh, let's see what's going on here.

We have a downside: Gap Phil Uh, there has to be some sort of News latest data shows unprecedented durability. Well, that's why it was up yesterday is because of a really successful test. Um I I think a lot of the times if you're not in it before the positive announcement, just from my history of like personally trying to get these. Usually if you're not in it before the a positive or negative announcement, it's a little bit too.

Chasey Could this keep going Without a doubt? but you're the thing that's moving this stock. It's already happened so like unless other people fomo in behind you I don't really see necessarily the edge if anything. I'd be more worried of if it breaks down below the low right here I'd get worried if it goes below 440 I'd be worried that it's going to Capital to 397 but if you're already in it, congratulations I Would use it as one of those buy the rumors sell the news. So the news officially came out.

It got a huge percentage pop I'd be locking in my gains but I wouldn't be chasing it now just because what else is going to move it. The thing that moved it, the news is out. the market already know, so unless you're expecting another positive announcement or negative, I would be staying away from it right now. I Honestly think like, uh, the therapy, biology, medical supplies I Think that's actually the hardest subset of stocks to trade because it's so binary in nature.

Did the test go? well? Did it pass? Did it failed? Did it get FDA approval? or did it get denied so much of this world? It's not necessarily you're tracking fundamental growth. It's not like you're following normal technicals. it's you're flipping a coin a lot. Like it's just how does it do in its testing? How does it do with the FDA How does it do with regulations? How does it do in Europe with all their grouping of regulations I Find that this particular subset of equities like just this industry Pharmaceuticals Medical supplies I Find you're just flipping a quarter over and over and over again.

Um, so definitely not my like go-to Trading Can we try to get Six Nine Six Nine likes Club again I Guess uh, we have What a thousand Three hundred to go. We could go first. Six Nine Six Nine hot CPI I Just checked in with some of my Futures Trading buddies, some of those robot Traders out there and they're this hot CPI it's gonna be. It's going to be nuts.

One oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother. All right, we have nine minutes to go, so obviously feel free to let your questions fire. Check out what's pinned to the top of chat. Shout out to Tradingview for being you know today's stream sponsor all that good jazz.

I'm just watching the dollar rip. Remember as the dollar shows strength here, most likely not good for the market. These do have an inverse relationship. Uh, it's not perfectly inverse, but it is most days gonna just generically be inverse.

If one's treading up, look for the other to Trend down. Uh, if the Spy here if it can't hold 411 I Think we're testing out 409.50 can't hold 409.50 I Think we're testing out 408. if we can't hold 408 I think we're going down to 405. on the flip side, if it gets above 413, we might be testing out 4 14, 50.

So those are going to be the bullish and bearish targets that I have. Uh, but obviously we're going to get a lot more information about 15 20 30 minutes into the day. it's going to be a high volatility day. Hopefully we get a nice Trend that we can all hop onto and make a lot of money I definitely have some money to make back from yesterday so let's see if we can get some good trains in.

Uh, my stonk's now down 295 on the day. Are you doing some pre-market trading Pre? You can obviously trade in pre-market Uh, it's not my favorite thing to do just. and my reasoning for not trading in pre-market on equities is twofold. First of all, it's a lot lower volume so there's just less liquidity.

Uh, and all the moves to the upside and the downside, and uh, there's just seemingly less. There's less conviction because there's less people trading it. And also in terms of like a safety transparency standpoint, you are not protected by the Nbbo during pre and post market trading the national best bid and offer. You're not protected by that so you could get some really, really bad fills if you're trading in pre and post market.

So unless like you can avoid that by putting in limit orders. Uh, but if you're using Market orders in pre and post market trading, you're going to get taken to the Wood Shipper. You're going to absolutely get taken to the Wood Chipper by market makers I Love if you guys haven't seen it yet. uh on.

Rumble They now have pictures and emojis and stuff I Love what they're doing over here. uh did you just chapstick while broadcasting? Want to take a shower next time thinking oh, I Chapstick every day dude, whatever's going on here in the Big Apple in February it is. Everything is just so dry. I mean when you stream for this long and you talk for this long like I'm just cracking my lips, this is the pain I go through to broadcast to you folks every single day I'm putting my own lip Health in Peril Um, and that's how much I care about you guys I Will I will sacrifice the health of my own lips just so we can talk endlessly with each other.

You're welcome. Can I take a look at V-e-r-i-v-e-r-i veritum I Didn't know this was a publicly traded company and I know nothing about their fundamentals I want this on the record that I have never looked into their fundamentals I didn't even know they were publicly traded stock. but I do want to let you know from a content creator perspective I've had dealings with Veritone the Ad Agency and they suck. I mean I've now been doing this for three years and the low quality of this company relative to every other advertising agency I've ever had any work with, they are by far the worst.

I Didn't even know they were publicly traded and now I want to short the out of them I I Didn't even know this was a company. but yeah, Veritum Advertising Marketing Services How much is this company even worth market Cap: 326 million I'm telling you, this is for any content creator out there. You're gonna waste your time if you're working with Veritone. I was speaking with the laziest, dumbest people on the entire planet and the fact that I could probably make money off of shorting them.

That's exciting to me like I they're trash. Man, they are absolute trash. Fundamentally, they might be better. I might obviously be emotional just because I had a very negative experience with them, but I had a negative experience with three people who worked there like it wasn't just like one asshat.

it was three separate asshats and all I could think is like if that's how they're running their company like man, how are they worth 326 million Like that's just that's crazy I could either I can make an advertising agency that's 10x that or this is inflated and it's going to go to zero because dude, absolute trash. they are an AI play. Uh, not really. they might have.

they might say that they're doing AI How are they doing it I Want to see how they're involved in AI I mean if you're gonna play AI There's better AI than an ad agency especially a shitty Ad Agency How are they allegedly involved in this? Where's Baritone I don't even see their ticker in here? Uh, short interest for C3 stands for near AI Software Firm Baritone I'm gonna also pick up short interest but yeah, that's what I know how are they involved in AI AI Software Veritone leave Baritone Markets coming down team uh I don't know how they're involved in AI It feels like they probably just put AI Veritone to enact cost cutting measures including layoffs Baritone appoints as CMO uh uh I They should use AI to replace their workers like I I would be supportive of that because their workers are ass. Um, so if that's the way that they're going okay, I could get behind that. but I don't see how they're an AI company whatsoever. It feels like they literally just said hey, we're AI you know how? what was it 20 2017 I Want to say it was either 2017 or 2018.

Every company just started to put blockchain into their company. They're like we're a blockchain company. We're a blockchain company. We're a blockchain company.

And when they did that in 2017 2018, they all popped and then they ended up coming down and almost none of them had anything to do with Blockchain. That kind of seems to be the general Vibe of what's going on right now. Every company is like how can we put AI in our name What can we do to put AI in our name? we're AI we're AI you're AI we're AI like everyone's AI That's What It Feels Like is going on like I don't think baritone trust me I spoke with them I Don't think that they had the intellect to pull off implementing AI into their company and this is coming from a guy who I've like directly spoken with their team and I hope they do I hope someone at the top is smart enough to replace all of those workers with AI because it would be better and more reasonable and they would show up to their meetings on time and not miss three separately scheduled meetings with the content creator they're trying to work with. I bet AI would show up on time so like that would be better.

it's just could they pull it off? Uh dude, they are the biggest trash company. It's