To be good but being always been problems is true. So I learn it I learn it and now I know I don't want to play it. Play it. play it good.

Bab I'm crazy I'm crazy but I'm baby True Yeah What? I'm good What? I'm good if me but I'm not good What? I'm good if you me I'm not good I'm good if you told me I always have to be good. always is true. So and now I know I want crazy I'm crazy I'm true I'm What if I'm not good. What if I'm good Me: What if I'm good.

What if good good on good morning, good morning. What's up Nerds Nerds. Freaking nerds nerds. You're all a bunch of Finance math nerds losers.

Hey, you're my losers though. we're kind of all losers together. Um, it's Thursday October 12th Thursday October 12th. Which actually means we're a day before the spookiest day of the year.

Friday October 13th Feels like a lot of spooky things might be going down tomorrow. so maybe you should enjoy today before we all get scared by Gremlins ghosts and ghouls tomorrow. Um, um, we're starting early. Congratulations to to you guys! You're on time Everyone in here right now.

No demerits. No demerits whatsoever. If you are here right now, you are escaping the plague of demerits that will be swiftly going through this community around 9:00 a.m. today when I'm yelling at everyone who's late.

So the couple hundred of you in here right now on both Rumble and YouTube you're good. You're good. You're a okay In fact I am so proud of you that I'm going to live you guys. I'm going to let you guys give out the demerits.

It doesn't just have to be me. So for those of you who have maybe been a little blood lust and you're like oh man I want to give someone else a demerit cuz maybe you felt the shame yourself of having a demerit I'm going to let you guys do it. I'm going to let you guys run through the community and just sling Dem merits left, right and Center as you see fit. So congrats You guys are going to definitely be uh, you definitely.

you're going to have a day. You're going to have quite the day. and I think we're all going to have quite the day because it is an inflation report day. In a mere 4ish minutes, we are going to get be getting the CPI report the Consumer Price Index Report a major measure of inflation that the FED cares about.

The media cares about, the markets, care about the economy cares about It's in the world of the Pce, it's in the world of the PPI. It's just another inflation report. The expectation is 3.6% above it, we're hot, below it, we're cold, and if we hit 3.6 we're kind of a Goldilock situation. The oatmeal might be just the right temperature now before we get into it.

Whoa. I Look forward to the O Brother Come on man. Jones Is this the Oh brother? oh brother. Is that what you're looking for? Whoa.

Whoa. What was that? What? What was that? Jones FX 426 What in the world was that? All right? We're back to it. Um and I have a lot of things that I want to get into I have some stories to share. my effectively my mother-in-law is saying with us and Piper was not being good.

So I have a lot of stories to tell on that front. We have to talk about how Adam Aaron As of this morning he got caught cheating on his wife and then was they tried to blackmail him for it. The person who was catfishing him. he fell for a catfish.

He he thought some 17-year-old Russian model was actually interested in him when in reality obviously a 17-year-old Russian model was not interested in that geriatric piece of shit. Um so anyway he fell for it, sent a bunch of inappropriate photos, and then they blackmailed him for it because he was getting catfish and then he went to the FBI and then that person got arrested and I'm like reading the tweets right now and people are like oh my God you have so much integrity and all I could think is dude, the dude was cheating on his wife and they're like he, he has so much Integrity he's so smart. He's so great. First of all, he's stupid enough that he fell for a catfish.

He thought a 17 year-old Russian model was interested in him. Of course it's a catfish of dude I'm going to sell that guy asteroid Insurance are you kidding me? So anyway he fell for that. uh then he went to the FBI and now he's talking about it. He's like I got blackmailed and I I thought that that was wrong and it's like well it is wrong.

like he's a victim in a certain stance in a certain like thing like it's not right to Blackmail people but people are saying that he has Integrity no way this is real. look at my Twitter like what is going on um it's on Twitter it's all over right now. it's this morning he tweeted about it I tweeted about it and people like dude, we stand with you man, we stand with you cheating on your wife and being so stupid you got caught. If you're that dumb, what makes you think you're smart enough to run a company I don't know, like he, he's the same guy that must be helping out the Nigerian prince who just like can't access his money.

um wait, you can get asteroid Insurance I'll sell you some I'll definitely sell you some. but anyway I want to talk about that I want to talk about Piper being really really bad. um oh shit I should have been talking fuck dude I I'm all out of sorts this morning. Not this okay, really really fast.

So this account I funded it with with 30k I can only lose 5K cuz your boy has a wedding to pay for and I've been trying to do the zero DTE so I funded it with 30k it's currently at 31.7k The issue is is yesterday: I got mad I got really mad the trades were going against me so instead of selling premium I decided to make directional bets I bought SPX puts I was looking good until the Fomc minutes came out and then the market started a pound bounce which means my account which when I started it was at like 26 like it traded down to 26 cuz I was already being stupid dropped all the way to 21k and this is bad because it means I was below the PDT requirement and it was also beyond the max I was willing to lose cuz I have a wedding to pay for and this is a different account and I shouldn't have funded this account because I have the Futures account long-term account I have too many accounts but I was like a I want to do this? um but as you can see, I made a degenerate play right at the end of the day I did some SPX calls currently at 5.5k so I could go out right now and I'd be in profit I only funded this with 30k but we're also about to get the CPI report and I need You guys should I just take this money and be cool with it or should I just like White Knuckle it through this whole scenario and you guys got to answer like real fast because this is all about to get started. This is this is going to get going. Uhoh uhoh where is it CPI did it come out? did it not come out? What's going though S&P futures up by about 18 and the NASDAQ up by 70 If you wanted to take a quick look at where the 10 all this the Dow futures right here the tenure has been sitting just about yeah, 4.54% Rick Santelli is standing by at the C in you got to bounce this for me brother Yes and it's dropping as if somebody thought they had the number. but they're wrong because it's hotter than expected CPI for the month of September Headline expected up1 and many are saying if you extrapolate this number we're in the twos.

Well it's up 410 of 1% up 4/10 1% Still don't see revision up 6/10 in the rear view here because of course Up 610 was the highest since June of 22 strip out the all important food and energy. what I was referring to With that extrapolation, it hovers it up 310 of 1% That is the second month in a row it's been there, we haven't had a revision yet. Prior two months we're the lowest since Feb 21 we had back to back 438 right now bouncing up 437 and year over-year 3.7 year-over-year headline 111 Hotter than expected exactly as in the rear view mirror. back to back the recent low water mark there was 3% that was in June that was low 21.

Now this is my favorite year-over-year core, which by the way hasn't been below 4% since May of 2021 is now 4.1% exactly as expected. However, we have made progress. It moves from 4.3 3 to 4.1. As I said, still haven't been under four since May of 2021, but 4.1% on its own is the lowest level since September of 21.

Now let's go to initial Jbless claims: expected up 210,000 darn close 209,000 and last month revised up 2,000 to 209,000 back to back 209,000 Let's look at it this way: We haven't been bre since the first week in August just to Puta Always a month actually popped a handle expecting 1, 6,000 it barely popped up above 1.7 1,72 in rearview mirror. A subtle upward revision from 1,664 to 1,672 We haven't been above 1.7 million since the second week of August when we were 1,7 Suffice it to say that interest rates have moved up a bit. Uh, if you were to look at a two-day chart, what you'd find is is that today we are looking at two-year note Futures above yesterday's high yields never dabbled. Below on the other hand are aing for yesterday's Highs but still haven't come to it but have done some work under yesterday's lows.

so should we start to trade above yesterday's highs, we could call this an outside day technically significant I would pay attention to that Dynamic Becky Back to you Rick Thank you very much Again, we're watching that jump bit pressure from 43843 down to7 down I Want Steve Lean joins us again right now with more on what he's seeing on this Steve What do you think I'm looking over it I mean obviously you had a a pop in gasoline prices up one and a half% Maybe a bit less than had been expected, but still, that's a big number. To the upside: I'm looking at used cars falling 22% apparel falling 0.8% Looks like there was a bit of a surprise in Shelter I Just want to scroll down here and see if I can find the owner's equivalent rent. Uh, that was 06. Yeah, it ticked back up which is kind of contrary to expectations.

On the other hand, we did have a decline in medical services. We're down 0.3% 0.3% And1 they were with a 4.9% right here that I've highlighted the 5.7 and the 72. These are the issues: Services Shelter have been proven to be very sticky. think the test the Uh Market's metal for figuring out is the Fed really done? here are think it is and I tolerance for this kind of oscillation in the number a bit of higher on the headline right line on the year-over-year when it comes to services and while I'm talking here guys I just want to see the FED probabilities if they have changed it all and they did a little bit for December, they remain below 10% for November and they're up slightly above 30.

Call it 33% they down below 30% before we went into the number here for December I still think the FED is on hold here I think there's some tolerance but again as I said the um the data has to behave. We have to be in this situation where the that inflation is gradually coming down. but so far what I've heard from fed officials the burden approve is on hiking again not on holding. okay Steve thank you very much Spy com up after this uh you don't want to miss this.

An American Business leader making an urgent call to fight growing anti-Semitism on college campuses and he made a lot of news yesterday. He's going to make some more this morning. Apollo Globals Mark Rowan is going to be joining us live after sending that letter asking pen alumni stop spy still going down giving money to that University Stay tuned. You're watching Squ bouncing off from 437 Spy down at about a dollar and a half right now on that hot uh CPI report PPI Came in a little hot yesterday, but obviously with yesterday, the market still did end up popping.

My position is now just in the red. Um, just in the red at this moment. Um, it was a dude. I Guess that's what happens sometimes.

you risk it for the biscuit and you're not allowed in the bake shop I Just made that saying up right now, but feel free to use it. Masson Square Gardens for the wedding, invite us family in front of main Sage Goodies around the stadium ducks flying overhead Rick Officiates Dude: I would have Rick officiate if only I wanted the best officient ever Seems interesting. Uh, first move is always the wrong one. Usually we say that with the FED uh, not necessarily with inflation reports, but I'm I'm at the point of taking whatever hopium you guys will give me.

So whatever you guys want to say to be like hey, yeah, no, no, no, no, totally hold Matt like this should work. um uh I'm game. Technically we're still above where we closed yesterday and I got in like around here around 434 so like I'm not really sweating I was in here around 2 230 something like that so like it's still up above. it's just I really liked it at this 43850 I Really like that at 439 I had dreams about 440.

Um, it still might get there, but the odds are rapidly decreasing. We are coming to um this dash line is the high from two days ago and then the solid green line is the high from yesterday. Uh, so we're in between those two right now. obviously the market taking a hit off of that.

So uh, if you were watching that Biden stream. Important note: I don't know where things are going between now and 9:30 Uh. But really, what I'm looking for is like the odds of that are just okay. We know that statistically, we open up higher than where we close and where we Clos yesterday was in the realm of where are we, Where are we? We closed at 43632.

Uh, we're at 43650, so it is still technically above that right now. not much above it. We were looking way better this morning, but the market not reacting in the best way to the hot inflation report, which is not really unexpected I would say by just knowing what that means, uh, slightly increases the hawkish nature or the potential hawkish stance. the F: um, is this guy talking about college campuses I Come on I Hear that.

Welcome back to Squawkbox everybody! The Futures this morning have come down decidedly since we got that hotter than anticipated month-over-month number for CPI It came in up 0.4% versus 3% in terms of expectations and immediately saw the air kind of let itself out of the equity's Futures here. Dow futures had been up about 150 points or so. now they're up by 38 S&P futures up by just one point, the NASDAQ up by just one point, as well. It's just a lot of the the Israel war bringing new attention to the rise of anti-Semitism on college campuses.

It's been a debate all over the country. Apollo Global CEO Mark Rowan urging alumni at that University of Pennsylvania his alma mater to Halt donations to the school till its president in the chair of its Board of Trustees resign in an out that Rowan wrote and submitted to pen Student News newspaper but which has not been published Rowan criticizes University president Liz Mcgill and Board of Trustees chair Scott mention is I know here won't do it but everyone else can pretty easily. Last month ostensively about arts and culture Rowan saying the Gathering featured well-known anti-semites and formentor of Hayden racism head of the Festival Mcgill and two other leaders of the University released a statement in which they said they unequivocally condemn anti-Semitism but also support the free exchange of ideas, even those incompatible with our institutional values. But in his AED Rowan says in our viral online world, it's especially dangerous when Once Fringe ideologies receive a stamp of legitimacy and a cultural justification that allows hate-filled ideas to spread as acceptable.

Alternatives Mark Rowan joins us this morning at the table for being here. Um, by the way, a difficult call for a place that I love for the last 40 years. Well you, this is your Alma Mo So let's let's just talk about how this came about. what was going through your head.

Uh, what kind of conversations you've had that led you to write this. Look, this is not at the end of the day about Free Speech Because I Whether people like it or not, uh, me personally and most people support Free Speech There are always going to be racists and haters. This is about a university condone conference University Professors universities supported and the inability of leadership to exercise any sort of Mor Moral Clarity With respect to saying this is hate, this is anti-Semitism This is racism, but we're going to allow it that condemnation should not be so hard. Unfortunately, if you lack moral courage, it is hard.

So this Festival took place I Believe three weeks ago. Now, three or four weeks ago. uh, be before, um, the terrible and and disgraceful attacks that took place on Israel By Hamas What were you thinking then and about going public then and were there conversations you were having then and and how did that change over the past week? Is it loud enough there has audio issues? Um around these issues. Um, you know microaggressions are condemned with extreme moral outrage and yet violence, particularly violence against.

Jews Anti-semitism seems to have found a place of Tolerance on the campus uh, protected by Free Speech Uh President Mill is not an anti-semite President Mill is just not capable of exercising moral leadership. He here because she feels academic pressure, peer pressure and it's unfortunately, the environment we live in in campus. Uh, over the past two weeks, uh, more than 4,000 of our alumni, many of our leaders, many of our trustees, many of our board members have kind of finally said we've we've had enough uh and signed an open letter basically telling President McGill that she was heading in the wrong direction. What's happened since has just been excuse me, a compounding of mistakes.

Um, you know, imagine telling a group of firefighters a week after 9/11 that you're sorry for their loss and then adding the word but as if you're going to explain the action of the terrorists. That's kind of what's happened on our campus. Um, and at the same time while protecting. Free Speech Uh President Mill Chairman Bach have come selectively after.

excuse me trustees and leaders of boards asking them to resign for exactly exercising their free speech. Do what have they done? Speak to this asking they're asking trustees to step off the board. Oh, absolutely. for for what to silence them to silence them, That's exactly what's going here They they I Was strongly encouraged to reconsider my chairmanship of the Wharton board which I told them no thanks.

and by the way, the other three Trustees of the University said exactly the same thing. So imagine in this moment of you know kind of moral preaching where people are talking about free speech and the exercise of free speech in the background there are three trustees sit at6 so it's down5 now. Signed this open letter disagreeing with what the University is doing and all four of us Jewish Have you had a conversation with Scott Bach that that was what I did just before I came here and we we've agreed to disagree and and we've seen the statement that that that pen put out not I'm getting the vibe from this guy that he's like one of those people who's like quiet and Cal when he gets angry. Um AB Absolutely none.

Look, this is Um leadership. uh I am CEO of a public company Um president McGill is essentially the leader of a university. Uh for My Mind Leadership is about having some point of view being also the symbols of leadership. symbols are really important.

So this weekend while 1 1200 Israelis were being butchered and murdered and raped, we tweeted as a university about Indigenous People's Day President McGill was posting Instagrams of she and her dog out dopping the the lack of ability to actually understand a little bit but not bad and the environment in which it's not her fault, the environment in which she preside presides is actually quite toxic. Yelds up bombs down because this is also happening at Harvard Um, you're seeing by Larry Su B Number comments about some of the statements that were made by some groups at Harvard as it relates to this and other universities as well. What do you think is happening on campus and what do you think the the pressures are or or aren't on leadership as it relates to this specific issue. Look um Universities at the end of day we think of as bastions of free speech.

That's in theory how they hold themselves com back a littleit 43725 bouncing off of 43650 Up 75 but still has imag a dollar to group deci. This would be a good night to hold a white nationalist rally. My guess is the University would would have found its voice as the university by the way has found its voice every time it has wanted to. Unfortunately with respect to Jews with respect to anti-semites we're not talking about arguments over a two-state solution or the political division of land.

We're talking about Hamas We're talking about terrorists. We're talking about a pen. Professor Outsourcing This conference to a known anti-semite who then does exactly what we expect them to do. They call for ethnic cleansing, they call for rounding Jews into cantons, they sanction violence, and the best we can do lacking moral Clarity at the university is to say we stand for free speech.

Really? When did they ask you to step down? Was this a result saying if you don't like what we're doing can't believe they had the balls ask This is subtlety. So the three trustees they've actually they actually asked to step off the board for public publicly disagreeing going around the process which itself is another issue mine. mine was more subtle. Really encourage.

can you continue to do the job? It is again a sign of the moral confusion. Well let me ask you. um, you are probably one of the wealthiest and uh, bigger benefactors. Uh to this University I Imagine there are others that you have spoken to that are now saying I don't know if we should be giving our money uh to this University you're you're you.

You've been telling people quite publicly do Not give give money to this University You're now also the chair of of of of Warden. So how are you thinking about those issues and what? How do you think the pressure is being brought to bear and what's going to ultimately happen? Um, well remains to be seen. What what I will say is um, this whatever people's dissatisfaction, Who are you? f How universities in particular the University of Pennsylvania is being run. This just has made it boiled over.

We already have seen 150 million that would have come to the university move away from the University. We've seen more than 4,000 of our most engaged alumni basically say the university is heading in the wrong direction. Yesterday my email and text blew up with people sending me photoc copies of a $1 check to the University of Pennsylvania. Sometimes when people don't give to the university, the university can misunderstand it.

Maybe we forgot right by by sending them a dollar. They're sending the university a very important message and trustees are really faced with a very difficult choice. This is not President Miguel didn't create this problem. The question is is she the right person to manage this problem and most of us do not think that SP coming back a little bit a dollar to go I don't believe so that 43750 love it at 43? Um, you're speaking out quite publicly on this very issue.

Um, one of the things we've seen the last year or two is CEOs who actually had spoken out publicly after George Floyd and so many other issues decided they wanted to sort of take a step back from making public comments about anything. uh, frankly, out of fear, uh, that they were saying the wrong thing or that they would be attacked as being woke or anti-woke or that you know, uh, some the various governors of different states were going to come after them or come even after their pension money. Which goes into how. Just tell us about your thought process about this particular issue, how it relates from this issue to potentially other Issu.

L The CEO say certain things about about what's happening now early. C People can really pop off. That's kind of the punchline if I tell you. Yesterday was an overwhelmingly positive day from our employees.

From our partners. From our limited partners. From the people, do we we do business with from people I don't know Mark who literally just said Thank you thank you for speaking out and of course my response to them is feel free to join. This is not an issue of woke or anti-woke this is an issue of right or wrong 61.

This is a group. He's worth 5.8 billion doll that believes that the Jews should be killed. Read the charter behind every Rock You shall seek out the Jews and kill them. He's an American.

This is not about a political solution found apoll over how Israel has treated Palestinians in the West Bank Ina This is a group that is a terrorist group, the inability to actually say is morally confused and bankrupt and some have gotten it right. Look at the President of University of Florida has gotten it exactly right. Actually said the truth I Don't basically call in 2018 M This is not a political discussion, this is right and wrong and moral. Clarity you got an we'll discuss the politics of Israel and Palestinians another day.

but there's no room here and so for me I Felt very comfortably comfortable speaking out because it's it's morally clear You said that this has been a long time coming. Is it just on this issue or have you felt that there have been other areas upen and other universities where you see things that you don't like? things that you think are a Str Apollo Mark Row demands leaders quit over anti-Semitism The other really clarifying thing over the past few weeks: call all who we are, head in the to CL their the of course Wrot letter shared with: because they are afraid of being canel, They're afraid of being ostracized. They're afraid of speaking out. We as a university are diverse in almost every way.

For thees to begin mov in a New Direction join me by sending you $1 in place of your normal discretionary contribution so that no one misses the point because we've created space for them Again, we're very good at targeting micro. Social Security Announces 3.2% Costage 2024 to condemn murder and violence and call it what it is. And that's essentially what's happened here two weeks ago or 3 weeks ago. Um, we had this: Festival a university Professor outsourced this professor this Festival to a known anti-semite This was not a question.

this is someone who speaks Every Day on in an anti-semitic tone for men's hate. The university allowed it to proceed. The university funded it. The university supported it.

The university hosted it. Okay, if we're a laboratory of free speech, let that take place. but summon the moral courage to say this is hate. this is anti-Semitism This is calling for violence.

It's repugnant to our values. But as a protector of free speech a little bit for 30770, coming back I Might get lucky here. Lack much. got unlucky at first if everything is relative if you're talking about the events of 9911, but you need to say I feel like I have slaying of 1200 people Then you need to say and or but you lack a certain moral Clarity at the end of the day I think this is a very, very dangerous exercise for this University I think it's a very dangerous exercise for leadership.

Uh I think the fundraising impact of this will be. well, that's I was ask over I mean we are, we are on a business Network What do you think the economic impact is going to be on Pen specifically. what do you think the economic impact could be on a Harvard For example, dealing with these issues I I I'll stick close to home. The place that I've loved and supported for 40 years.

Um, and this again. it doesn't come easy. This is a place I showed up to without money and they took care of me. It's a place where my father died while I was a student and they took care of me.

It's a place where I graduated without paying my tuition and they allowed that. so I have a lot of reasons to want to give back. I've chaired the board here for the Wharton School For a long time I've been engaged Alumni, we're just heading in the wrong direction and trustees have a choice. We can double down and continue to do things that are not working or we can actually stop and say we made a mistake and we need to provide some guidance to leadership.

Do we want to be a place of objective research? Do we want to be a place of free speech? Do we want to be a place of moral? Clarity These are questions trustees have never been asked. We don't have the governance mechanism in place and have not had it backlash over delayed response to Hamas Attack on is to dismiss trustees or pressure them to resign For me, actually was the last straw. Anyone who believes in free speech should be outraged by what's happened here. Mark Rowan Uh, we appreciate you joining us this morning.

I Mean we're seeing this at a lot of places of higher education taking here. Harvard Economist Jason Ferman has spoken out as well, but also we have Bill Amman Who says it's not enough just to speak out? At this point, we should know the name of the students who participated in these statements because future employers should take that into account in their employment. Do you think it should go that far? I think Bill's getting a bit carried away. Uh, look.

uh. David This letter was issued six hours after the attacks. Many in the groups had no idea that there was going to be a letter some who probably signed their groups on didn't fully know what they were signing some. I'm sure were naive and stupid I Don't think this is a time for individual vilification.

It's not a time for demonizing Israel And it's not a time for demonizing students who weren't careful or who were Silly in uh, what they did. That's very important to maintaining a community Bills entirely, right? And I would do the same thing as he does in wanting to make sure that the people I hired weren't people who stood with uh, hate but asking for lists of names. That's the stuff of uh Joe McCarthy not uh, the stuff not what uh I think um, strong business organization s or universities like Harvard uh, should uh be doing I think we've got to keep a sense of proportion here. We've got to keep, uh, the temperature, uh down.

There are incredibly hard questions ahead of us around the response and they're not going to be any good answers, but we may find less tragically bad answers if we can recognize I Don't agree with that at all. If you're dumb enough to stand up and say what Hamas is doing is acceptable or even worse, right? uh, yeah, no. I think your future employers and the world deserve to know who you are. So seeing similar things out of upen out of Harvard and honestly, for some of the most well-respected higher education institutions in the US like this is crazy that we're at this point.

um I thought it was just dumb people like Jason in here who like, somehow try to say that it's okay. What? Hamas is doing? Who was it? Jason Van Palmer and skunk are all in here right now saying yeah, no, no, no, what Hamas is doing. It's cool. It's acceptable.

They deserve to be able to do that. Uh, obviously you're all like scumbags. Um, but uh. it's weird that even these institutions some of them like are not willing to say hey, maybe that shouldn't be happening.

Um, blows my mind. Truly blows my mind. So early this morning, stock futures rise as Wall Street awaits key inflation data. They were going up, making me feel good.

And then the CPI report came out a little bit hot. not incredibly hot, but nonetheless still hot. Obviously the market dropped. Uh, we're seeing a decent bounce.

This bounce was making me feel a bit better, but uh, the bounce is not really going that high anymore. so it'll be interesting to see what happens when the bell actually goes dingy. Ding ding ding accelerating us core inflation set to muddy rate prediction for the FED core measure to get used car boost. Bloomberg Economics says Israel Hamas Conflict Also, upside risk for Consumer prices.

So right now, yesterday we got the PPI report slightly hot. We got the CPI report this morning. slightly hot. Um, so in terms of inflation, generically from last year to now, we are trending in the right way, but in terms of magnitude, we're still too high.

which the market is trying to figure out like okay, is it so high that it's going to put pressure on the voting Fomc members members of the Fed to raise interest rates one more time? We're currently at 5.25% Will the FED raise it again? We're going to find out on Wednesday November 1st, the odds aren't that high. There's a better chance not that we're done with it just because yields are already so high. So kind of like what's happening in the yield Market is already. maybe doing what they need to be done, but obviously we have.

What about 3 weeks, 2 weeks until we get to know from them anyway? Um, so this is what markets are reacting to this morning is a hot infl inflation report now. I Do want to throw out there that the last time we got a hot inflation report? Yes, initially the Market's reaction was to the downside, but then it ended up with a very strong rally. So just something to consider. And the reason I'm bringing that up is don't forget the overall trend of the market right now.

Higher highs, higher lows. Upside: Gap fill to 43843 So right now in terms of price action, the Bulls are in control. Does that mean that they're going to remain in control today? I Have no idea. Obviously I'm going to be watching 436 6, 32, 436 58 Wait, why do I have so many levels? Where are we at? I'm going to be watching 436 58 that's the high from yesterday.

I'm going to be watching 43722 the high from two days ago which is currently where we're at in pre-market and then obviously the upside: Gap Bu to 43843 I would love to see 43843 Um, but that's just because I have a very degenerate bullish position on right now. It might be right. It might be wrong. I have no idea time will tell.

So that's kind of where we're at with the macro economic events just because we're talking about macroeconomic events. I Do want to let you know that later on today, we actually have another inflationary report. The crude oil inventory is coming out at 11:00 a.m. ET today.

So what an hour and a half into the trading day? So there is one more report today and also this week. So nothing in terms of this type of stuff scheduled for this week. but obviously we still have a lot of developments of what's going on in. Israel We have a lot of developments of Fed member speeches.

Uh, there are other things going on, but in terms of macroeconomic reports, we have one more to go for this week. Also on that I Do want to let you know that we are in the middle of earning season so Pepsi came out they beat early this morning Walgreens came out, they missed Delta came out and they actually ended up beating Delta Airlines Profit jumps almost 60% Pretty good after strong summer. Uh, where are the exact numbers on it? So EPS earnings per share? Uh, 203. They were expecting a $1.95 and in terms of Revenue slightly miss 14.55 billion when the expectation was 14.56% in pre-market trading.

So obviously when Delta doeses well, that's going to go bode well. For United, that's going to bode well for Southwest and that's going to bode well for American A So uh, the four major airlines are all up in pre-market trading because they're kind of just going going the way of Delta Which makes sense. They're very similar businesses. If one's doing well, most likely they're all doing well.

If one's doing poorly, they're most likely all doing poorly Walgreens Profit Outlook comes up short as demand declines for RONA vaccines and tests. That's no surprise. Of course, the demand for this is going to be dropping. But anyway, Walgreens also reported this morning.

so just want to let you know what the week sector is. I Really think that the show gets going tomorrow? we are at the start of earning season. It's going to last about 3 to four weeks. Um, but the show really starts tomorrow.

We get the major financial institutions JP Morgan Wells Fargo City PNC and also a big health insurance play United Health Group So tomorrow morning before the Market opens, a lot of the financial sector will be reporting, which is nice because that means we're going to get some serious movement in XLF which is the financial sub sector of the S&P 500. Obviously, for those of you paying attention to energy, XLE is the sub sector of the S&P 500 that's tracking energy. Um, so the three things that arguably have the most sway on the overall S&P 500 is first Xlk. You have that Xlk, this is Tech sector going up looking strong, and then you should also be considering XLE and then XLF, energy and financials respectively.

Of course, there's a lot of other ones. Utilities is Xlu, Industrials is Xli, Healthcare is XLV, and the list goes on and on and on. But the three that I think most people pay attention to because it just makes up. Uh, the line share of the S&P 500 is X K XLE and XLF Um, in no real specific order, but that's what I'm going to definitely be paying attention to.

So anyway, earning season's underway, We just got an inflation report. A very important inflation report. The CPI report coming in a little bit hot. A little bit hotter than the Bulls wanted, but not hot enough for what the Bears probably wanted.

Uh, the pre-market trading currently the Spy is at 437, which means we are technically up. At least we're gapping up relative to yesterday is close, but not that. High Um, we're seeing the dollar go up. We're seeing yield go up.

We're seeing bonds kind of go down. Bond's not going down as much as I thought we they would. but let's see the Bell hasn't gone dingy. Ding ding ding.

Um, we're going to go over the seasonality here. might as well just get that out of the way. Um, this is the newsletter Matt. Locals.com If you're not signed up, sign up for free.

I've decided is this the appropriate time to talk about this? Is it. is. it, is, It is, is, it, is, it, is, it is, it is, it is, it is, it is, it is, it is, it is, it Is it. As of next week, the first iteration of the Discord will be rolled out to all of you and speaking with the team, speaking with everyone.

You're not going to be able to get access to everything, but there is going to be a free version of the Discord. Uh, so some of the strategies, some of the pieces of data and some of the things going on will behind more for the like the actual supporters, but there are. We're still going to leave a portion of everything open to everyone for free. Um, obviously with this like the whole the name of the game is is we're confident enough in what we could provide that we think if we provide something to you for free that it should help you on the way of your trading investing Journey that you're like okay I have enough money now I Want to upgrade to premium? That's our mindset.

But anyway, the reason I'm bringing it up right here is just to sign up for Discord It's all going to be through locals. You can't sign up yet, but it's going to be happening like either tomorrow or this weekend and we're going to get rocking with the first iteration of it next week. But anyway, it's all through locals. so you're going to be able to get access to a portion of the Discord for free.

You're going to get the newsletter for free. You're going to get a lot of stuff for free Matt. Local.com and this is just an example of one of the things that you could get for free. Um, but anyway.

I give a breakdown of what happened the last week. What? I'm looking towards the towards like the upcoming week, all the major macroeconomic events, all of the earnings, the ones that I think you care about, and here's also the seasonality. So in terms of seasonality today, Thursday and tomorrow Friday both favor the Bulls. In fact, pretty much the remainder of October favors the Bulls.

So uh, right here. for today, the Bulls have won less than 50% of the time, but when they do win, they're winning pretty handedly. The Profit Factor is over one. it's coming in at 1.66 and then tomorrow is also 1.66 but the Bulls end up winning just under 2/3 of the time.

then I give you some options, updates, some chart breakdown, and other important data metrics of my life. But but anyway, Mac. Locals.com If you want to check this out, once again, it's free. You don't have to pay anything for it.

Mac. Locals.com it is in the description of the video, so that's the seasonality. Obviously, with all of this going on right now, the market uh, spy barely holding on to 437 The Q's at 47170. Interesting to see how this is all playing out right now.

So we sold off we popped. We're coming down a little bit. We're in between the most recent two highs on the daily chart uh, 4365 and 43772. I Do want to remind you that yes, there's a very, very important upside: Gap fill to 43843.

That is what I'm looking at. If you're more of an SPX Trader that is going to be 4401 4401 and a little bit of change. So if you're more of a a gap Trader which hey, the odds to playing Gap fills is extraordinarily High something to pay attention to I'm looking I Don't know if it's going to continue past this. Hey, your predictions are as good as mine I Can just go go over the odds of a situation and tell you okay, if the deck is stacked in your favor or not and playing this upside Gap Fill The deck is stacked in your favor.

Is that a guarantee? No, there's no such thing as a guarantee in the market. There's Oh, it's a gradient of somewhere between 1 and 99% What is likely what's unlikely. What's your reward? What's your risk? You have to weigh it all out accordingly. But anyway, in terms of the market, we've had higher highs, we've had higher lows.

We just got a hot CPI report which isn't bullish. In fact, that definitely does favor the bears. But recently we've also just been seeing volatility that maybe doesn't make sense. And hey, who said the Market's supposed to make sense? But anyway, that's what I'm looking at these upside targets.

One thing that's going to have a massive impact is just obviously the absolute chaos of the conflict in Israel Right now, the war in Israel. Uh, some of the latest updates IDF jets are targeting Hamas leaders in Gaza and a lot of these leaders of Hamas are dropping like flies. So the main development politically has has been that Unity government that war cabinet assembled by Benjamin Netanyahu. He will preside over that it will include his defense minister but also the former Defense Minister and the opposition leader Benny Gance.

Really the unity there in Israel Um, being able to come together politically something that they have really struggled to do in recent months. And overnight you had the Israeli Defense Force saying that they are carrying out extensive attacks. Um in Gaza continuing to bomb, we have had sort of Relentless bombing since Saturday We have another death toll now in Gaza that exceeds according to say there are 1,00 people and they don't have food, they don't have electricity and water and this all obviously as we see more and more Israeli troops amassing on the border of Gaza in anticipation of what we can only assume will be a ground. Invasion So what is the next? I mean the Gaza will never ever like be the same 24 hours.

A lot to watch for. So as we say, 100,000 troops are on the border, they've conscripted, they've brought out of the reserves more than 300,000 Um soldiers and really with the stated intention of destroying Hamas Initially it was just try to neutralize their military capabilities. That is really that rhetoric has gotten a lot stronger recently. That is complicated obviously by the number of civilians and the dense population of Gaza the hostages an unknown number still um of Israelis that are still under their Uh control, their equipment will it be overstretched and of course the northern Uh border with Lebanon if they move into Gaza Could you see Hezbollah acting more? All right.

So little bit of an update there. obvious VI Ly we also have more stuff to get into. Do I still have time? Yes I have 20 minutes Biden weighs freezing 6 billion for Iran after Hamas attack on Israel Funf freed imprisoner swap may be refrozen. Us Intelligence has no evidence yet that the Iran directed attack Now obviously I didn't really pay much attention to this prisoner swap.

just not really my forte. Um, before this whole debacle in uh Israel played out. but to my understanding, we had some Iranian prisoners Iran had some Us prisoners. We did a swap but on top of that, we also gave them $6 billion which is strange and they were talking about how well hang on, hang on, hang on like people who are like somehow supporting this like well they said they would only use it on like medical supplies.

folks. money is fungible if you're not going to use 6 billion here and someone else gives you money, that means you can use other money elsewhere. It's not work like we're accounting for individual dollar of what they're being used on. If you're giving Iran $6 billion, you're giving them $6 billion.

This game of trying to play cute of like, well they can only use that money on this. It's like money's still fungible like we're not children here. I think like everyone understands that. Um, but anyway, it's kind of interesting.

A lot of people started to call for this money that was unfrozen to be frozen again. Biden Administration Officials are leaving open the possibility of refreezing 6 billion in Iranian oil money that was released as part of a prison ER swap of in growing bipartisan criticism after Iran back Hamas militants attacked Israel The 6 billion that was to be used for humanitarian purposes has become a touchstone of criticism for the President's approach to Iran and a focus of inquiries into the role Iran may have played in last weekend's attack. Now I'm no military strategist I Know that might be surprising to many of you, but I'm not. But to think that Hamas was able to pull off any of this themselves I Mean it was really, really Advanced And we know that there's direct ties between Hamas Iran Hasbullah all of it.

They're all interconnected and right now Blinkin is continually saying no, no, no, we have no evidence of it, but now there's evidence coming out that maybe they didn't support it, but at minimum they at least knew about it. So it's getting funky there. And will we ever get the full truth? Probably not. I Don't think our politicians are necessarily in the game of giving us the full truth? Um, but when it comes to this I I think there's very fair questions to be asked about the $6 billion Treasury secretary Janet Yellen Said Wednesday that the administration wasn't ruling out new sanctions against Iran Adding that she wouldn't take anything off the table in terms of future possible actions.

The six billion could be quotequote refrozen at any time according to John Kirby spokesman of the National Security Council none of it has been allocated. None of it has been spent, so it's still sitting in a Qatari bank and that's an option that's available to us. I Think most of us watching would be like yeah, no, freeze it until we get some more answers I Think that's a fair thing to consider. Another just piece of I Guess political turmoil.

political volatility is what's going on with the Speaker of the House position here within the US For the GOP Republican divisions threaten Scalise's Ascent to house Speaker house vote not scheduled as Scal tries to broaden support, Scales can afford to lose no more than four Republican votes. So basically it's between Uh Scales and Jordan Right now, Scalise has a bit of the upper hand. A lot of people were thinking that as of yesterday Wednesday October 11th that we actually might have a Speaker of the house. Unfortunately, it's now Thursday and we don't Republican Steve Scales faces a fight to become House speaker that could drag on for days or even weeks.

Delaying the US response to fiscal deadlines and a new war in the Middle East scales on Wednesday claimed that the goop nomination for speaker by the narrowest of majorities, beating out the candidate endorsed by the former President, he immediately began a charm offensive to get the backing of dozens of other House Republicans including several Trump acolytes uh, who didn't support his candidacy. So I think everyone was hoping for this aspect of political volatility to calm down. Uh, but it looks like it's not. We might be waiting on that one a bit there, so just want to give you an update.

I I Know a lot of the news yesterday was like oh, we actually might have a new speaker of the house by the end of the day. Uh, but it does not look like we are trending in that Direction Some people ask me about Microsoft because there was an abnormal hit to Microsoft right after the market closed. Here's a look at it. Uh, Microsoft took a pretty sizable hit, went from 333 all the way down to 328 at one point.

Interesting update: IRS says Microsoft owes an additional 29 billion. That's billion with a B that's a pretty penny in back taxes Microsoft Said the IRS notified the company it owes an additional 28.9 billion and back tasses. The company disagrees with the claim and says it will contest them in court if necessary. Microsoft will go through the Irs's administrative appeal which could take years.

So this has to do with money that they allegedly owed uh, between I guess 2004 and 2013 and even now they're just going to be carrying it out like it sound like right there it literally could take years. So um, just to kind of clear up why the tech sector is performing really well. but Microsoft took a strange hit right after the market closed. It was on this announcement that that the IRS is coming after them for some money I assume if I had to guess, the way a lot of this stuff plays out with large companies in the IRS is they come to some sort of settlement that's far far lower than the number they're actually going after because the IRS seems to work in the realm of some money is better than no money and they might not want to risk going to court Microsoft doesn't want it to drag out because obviously there's fees and everything so probably going to end up settling on a much lower number and they both just shake hands and say okay, peace, see you at the next trial type of a deal if I had to guess but um, just to clear up a little bit of what is going on with old Msft.

All right, let's get this. let's get everything ready for the day. I Don't know. Need these anymore? All these white vertical lines are the last.

The 10 most recent CPI reports out of the last 10, Nine of them as in 90% Nine out of 10. Um, relative to the previous day's close, we opened higher. As of now, it does look like we're going going to open higher, so this would be continuing with the trend. Unfortunately, we are just not opening that much higher, but technically it's still right.

So yesterday we closed at 43632. the Market's trading right now at 43685, so it does look like technically we are gapping up. Um, nothing. It's not like a big one though.

that I wish we had, but technically the trend is still being supported. So I hope the market continues to go to the upside, but understand, that's just me hoping. You know, just hoping that goes that way. we'll end up seeing if it actually does or doesn't.

Um Social Security Cost of Living and Adjust. Oop oops. Social Security Cost of Living adjustment will be 3.2% in 2024, well below this year's record setting increase. Um yeah.

so when you get that little bit of an increase and yet inflation is way higher, it still means you're a net loser. Social Security It's kind of a a big Financial laughing stock I Feel like in the US because like it's something that I pay into and something that we all pay into. but the chance of me ever getting a social security check is zil zero zip nada I Don't think that I'm ever going to be seeing it so a little bit crazy. Uh, what's going on with Hindenberg research major new Ft investigation into Adon shows trade-based money laundering involving $5 billion dollar import since 2021 alone.

Okay, okay, uh, for those of you asking, this is a slight to the bottom line. It's not good, but it's not horrible. Yeah, it's definitely not good, but we'll see how it all ends up playing out. All right.

We have about 12 minutes to go until the market goes dingy. Ding ding ding. So I guess after the Market opens obviously I mean I'm hoping that this goes green and I want it to go green rapidly. Um, so we're still holding up.

It's just we're coming down from the pre-market highs relative to where we were yesterday. We're above it. So it it depends on how you want to look at it. If you're bullish, this is still arguably good for you.

If you are degenerately bullish with an option that's expiring tomorrow, you're probably not liking what you're seeing and that's the situation I'm in. but hey, maybe I'll get lucky. We'll see how things really end up playing out. Uh, but this drift to the downside, not making me the happiest.

Let's check what's going on. Let's just get a better understanding of what's going on in the options market. So yesterday the close was actually pretty strong here. Let's make this a little bit more.

Yeah, I mean the options. they were picking up for a second there, but recently someone is it's going a bit more bearish. Uh, to conclude yesterday the options Market was getting very bullish. It was going right along with the price action.

Uh, but right now we're seeing a bit of a dip as we get about 10 minutes out from Market open. So this is on the S&P 500. Let's look at what's going on in The Naz deck. Let's look in the old Tech sector.

Let's see what we have going on there. All right. This is actually just the close of yesterday so we don't have the update. As of now, we are seeing the most recent form of trading, at least on the Spy.

This is some early morning stuff where it was getting a little bit bullish into the report and then right after the report, it got pretty bearish. Then it started to bounce with the price hold. It was holding steady as the market was actually coming down and then pretty much at 910. there's a big dump in the options market and right now the price is reacting as you would expect it to.

Um, so this is just um, I Wouldn't argue that this is the end. All be all because the Market's not open yet. We know a lot more money, a lot more volatility, a lot more trading is going to come after the Bell goes. Dingy ding ding ding.

so just something to pay attention to right now. If you're at all interested in what I have seen to be the highest quality data related to the options, Market It's this right here. it's spot. GMA You could get a free twoe trial.

it's pinned to the top of chat see if it's it's appropriate for you I think you're really going to like it? I'm of the opinion that this will really help improve your decisions within the market, but if you don't agree with that, okay, no harm, no foul. You can get a free two-e trial pinned to the top of chat and you could I look at it for the spy and Qes, but you could look at it for individual equities. They have other sentiment they do a morning and an evening update from the founders of what they're seeing in the market. So if you're more of like an options Trader whether your long-term leaps or short-term degenerate stuff selling premium, buying premium, whatever it is for you I think that this type of data analysis will really really help, uh, improve just cuz you can see which direction the money is actually flowing.

um I've used many other option providers in the past but like I'm saying I mean I've used 10 plus this one spot Gamma is by far like it's not even like comparable of how much more quality this data is than the other options ones I've seen. So anyway, free twoe trial pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. Are we missing anything? anything? anything? anything? anything. Oh the story.

Do we have enough time for this? Oh, do we have enough time? Hang on Hang on hang on. Let me. Um, what's it semaphor? AMC Adam Aaron Right here. So this came out this morning.

How crazy is this? This is breaking news as of this morning. AMC CEO Shared sexually explicit photo and texts in a blackmail plot. This is real news. This isn't just something made up by an AI generator, it's crazy.

The high-profile and feisty CEO of the movie theater company AMC Adamar sent sexually explicit images and messages in a weeks long text exchange with a woman. He tried to extort hundreds of thousands of dollars from him using fake identities Adam Aaron got catfished. He got catfished. Uh, the outlines of the catfishing scam which included demands for hush money and threats to tell the Press of AMC's board were laid out in a 2022 Federal indictment of A Bronx woman who pleaded guilty this summer Aaron is victim number one described at the time only as a public CEO according to the biographical details and the documents filed in the southern district of New York and confirmed by people familiar with the matter at the direction of the FBI Aaron told AMC's board uh, about the incident only after the woman some Soo Blackwood was sentenced in July to the time already served.

So first of all, yes, he is uh, I guess a victim on this he got caught blackmail. but it brings up the question of how is he so stupid to fall for this in March of 22 Blackwood began texting Aaron under the name Mia She sent photos of a person that her attorneys later said was a 17-year-old Russian model. So yes, this old fat man thought a 17-year-old Russian model was actually interested in him I mean I Get that people every single day fall for catfishing scams. but this is a person who's allegedly smart like he's what a 60 70y old fat man that thought a 17-year-old Russian model was interested in him a 17-year-old Russian model Aaron who has been married since 1987 mistook her for a woman with whom he had a prior relationship, asking whether she was a ballerina.

Who Quote Unquote had done unmentionable things to to him. The two began trading messages and Aaron eventually sent her explicit pictures including him and another woman according to the government sentencing memo. So basically he's been married since 1987 and Aaron uh, who? yeah he is I guess arguably a victim here um I think he's a victim of his own stupidity, actively cheating on his own wife Blackwood later made up other characters and texted Aaron through an online burner accounts from a fake ex-boyfriend and a fictitious Vanity Fair reporter who claimed to have seen some of the messages. She demanded hundreds of thousands of dollars in hush money and threatened to take photos and messages to the press and AMC's board at one point texting Aaron the unlisted cell phone numbers of six directors.

Um, so it was all a scam. obviously like he fell for a catfishing thing. and um, yeah, like I said, he's the victim in certain I guess in a certain light he is a victim, but I would argue he's the biggest victim of his own stupidity and his own immorality cuz he's cheating on his wife, sending naked pictures to a girl who he was perceiving to be a 17-year-old Russian model Um I if you look at it, he addressed it this morning on his Twitter and people are standing up for him. They're like oh my god dude, you're like you have so much Integrity like we stand with you.

The dude was cheating on his wife, he was a dipshit who fell for catfishing and yet they're trying to make him out as some sort of moral character. like I get it, he got blackmailed. No one should be getting blackmailed. Getting blackmailed is disgusting.

I'm not in any way in support of that, but this one. It was like the lowest level intellect blackmailing ever. How did he fall for it? Like what? What in the world is going on? But anyway, this is breaking news as of this morning. and this is the person who many, many people believe is going to be their financial savior.

A person who was so stupid to fall for the lowest level of catfishing ever. A 17-year-old Russ model He thought right here later the the catfish. It actually wasn't the person behind it, but the person was using photos of his. He thought a 17-year-old Russian model was interested in him.

This guy right here. that's it's. actually kind of disgusting. It kind of has some Weinstein T like Vibes to it if you ask me.

some dude in the Hollywood industry, an old fat white dude thinking a young girl's interested in him like it really has some creepy Vibes if you ask me but that's uh I guess the exciting news. the drama news of what's going on absolutely blows my mind. Absolutely blows my mind. but it is what it is.

um definitely creepy. Hey I'm on the same page as you a 17-year-old Russian model and what's crazy about it is if you where's my Twitter if you read it he doesn't address it that way. he he talk about spin and this is how dumb the people are who like are supporting him. um he doesn't explain that he was cheating on his wife.

Uh so right here by definition I live my life in public eye. Unfortunately last year I became the victim of an elaborate criminal extortion by a third party who is unknown to me related to false allegations about my personal life rather than giv to Blackmail I personally engaged counsel and other professional advisers that reported the matter to law enforcement. I did so knowing I risk personal embarrassment but with my access to resources. If I did not stand up to against blackmail, who could and that he never explains what he was doing, he was just like I I he's playing the victim card.

He's literally playing the victim card I Am the victim of an elaborate criminal extortion. At no point did he apologize to his wife. At no point did he explain that he got caught as like a catfish. At no point was he saying to the world that like yeah no I was like thought this 17-year-old Russian model was in interested in me.

Um and if you read these comments, it's crazy. They're all like dude, we stand with you you're so a dude. Wait what is this one had breakfast with Harvey Weinstein associated with more than 300 Oscar nominations in his legendary career see his films at AMC Oh that was back in 2016 I guess the Apple doesn't fall far from the tree on that one. uh I mean like the the they just love him, they just think he's a like we stand with you, we stand with you brother like it's at a certain point you're just we're seeing Insanity we're just truly seeing Insanity of like dude look at them they like they idolize the guy, the guy who's lost them massive amounts of money, who's cheating on his wife who has done nothing for retail who has made tens of millions of dollars off this ordeal.

So he's gotten Rich he's talking to young girls or