Foreign home Brother oh brother oh brother. Good morning campers. Good morning campers. Hello hello hello hello man.

Welcome back to the Matt Corey show. We're making sure we're ready for today. We are starting early and that's because of exactly what you know: Happy Inflation Day To all of you out there who support and celebrate the CPI day it has come for us, it's like a Christmas that we get every single month right now. the spies looking pretty good.

in pre-market it is up about a quarter of a percent, but it doesn't really matter because CPI reports coming out at 8 30 and we are either gonna go rippity skippity doo dah to the upside or rippity skippity doodah. To the downside, someone said fix my hair my apologies I Know you guys expect perfection. This is where we're at. This is where we're at.

This is where we're at. The report comes out at 8 30 so we have what? Eight minutes, nine minutes left, and I don't know what to do I just don't know what to do. The Market's looking pretty good. Well here let me set the scene for all of you.

Let me set the scene if I can. So here's the spy on the top left of your screen and the queues in the bottom, left, bottom, left, top, right type of work. We're just going up and up and up. Tesla's looking good, Apple's holding and the dollar is also basically dying Like it's been dying.

so looking good things are currently looking bullish. The question is, is it going to hold and basically there's not a fair way to predict it. It's just going to be the CPI report it's all going to come up to. Basically, what does Rick Centilli give us when he announces the numbers? So here's what you need to know: Stock Features are a little change as Wall Street awaits major inflation report.

Well, technically we are up a little bit. I mean I think we closed out. Where do we actually officially close out somewhere in here So the market is up a bit like I said a quarter of a percent. which hey, I'm gonna take that.

why not? But it all changes at 8 30 a.m today I Hope you're buckled up I hope you're prepared I hope your socks are securely fastened. Pivotal us CPI Report to show lowest core inflation since 2021 fed to stop hiking rates after July according to Bloomberg Economics falling used car prices rent moderation to drag down numbers so we could come back to it. It is an interesting video, but I just want you to know. According to JP Morgan this is where what we're looking at as of now for headline: CPI Last month's reading was four percent, four percent flat, counting up one, two, three, four.

This time the expectation is 3.1 If you want to know how it's distributed, you have right here: JPMorgan RBC Visa coming in at 3.2 Bloomberg City HSBC UBS and Nomura coming in at three And then obviously this middle group coming in at 3.1 So they go out. They ask all these fancy schmancy people what they think it's going to be. They go to their quants, they do some number crunching. they come up with these numbers, and then obviously the prediction in terms of the world is just that median value.

So there are some expecting threes. There are some expecting 3.2 most are expecting 3.1 with a bias. uh, 3.1 or a little bit less. So this is what all the individual people individual firms are predicting.

Are they right? Are they wrong? I Don't know. But on top of it with JP Morgan Here's their prediction of what the S P 500 will do and the probability of that happening. Once again, the median estimate is 3.1 for the CPI report. So 3.7 or higher as in a very, very hot report.

five percent chance of it happening means that the market dies and it dies. A pretty brutal death. If we come in between 3.3 and 3.6 which has a 15 chance of happening, well, Mark it down, but not horribly down between 1 and 1.25 Now if we come in around expectations three to three, point two, which they're saying is going to happen with about a 50 probability, really 45, the market still goes up between 0.5 and 0.75 percent. And then if we're in at 2.8 to 2.9 as an inflation comes in, very cool.

Like a tundra cold. as in we're taking care of inflation at a better Pace than expected which has about a quarter chance of happening. The market does a little bit of a rippity skippity Duda up 1.5 to 1.75 and if we come in super cold, ice cold, colder than your ex-girlfriend's heart, we will be as in 2.7 or lower which only has a 10 chance of happening. Well, then the market really does just rock it to the moon.

This is all from JPMorgan This is their expectations. We'll see how it goes. I'm not like, uh, someone said 3.7 to 3.8 seems unlikely. Yeah, exactly five percent chance.

Here's the probability of these events happening. Five percent is pretty low. 10 is pretty low. We're looking at this main base case in the middle here of about 45.

I agree. 3.7 or higher seems unlikely because it is very, very very much unlikely. especially because of what we see going on in the world of used cars and also what's going on in terms of rent moderation assisting. You got to wonder whether that that can go on given where we are beginning to see some cracks.

Yeah, absolutely. So it's all about CPI now. Um, the FED minutes Very clearly fair to back focused on inflation. Um, it's actually not level of inflation.

it's the pace of the decline in inflation. Most members want to see it coming down more quickly. Uh, what does that mean? That means more tightening. Actually Interesting I Think this is going to be more important for the report.

When it comes out, prices of used cars and trucks are set to drop 1.4 helping to bring the overall core Goods prices down by 0.2 percent. marking a reversal from the increases of the past three months. owner's equivalent rent is set to advance by point five percent. Well, the monthly increase in primary rent will moderate 2.4 percent.

so specifically honing in on what's going on with rent moderation and also the drop in Prices for used cars. And obviously we're gonna try to see what's being sticky in that core. CPI Report In terms of the course: API Report So we've been thus far talking about the headline. Last time it was four percent.

We're now expecting three point one percent Core CPI as in taking out food, taking out energy. The last time around was 5.3 This time around, we are looking at five percent to be the Line in the Sand. So headline CPI 3.1 Core: as in taking out food and energy We are looking at five percent. Those are the two numbers to be paying attention to.

and here's obviously the monthly numbers if you want to pay attention to them. Basically 0.3 and Port three. That's what we're going to be listening to. That's what we're going to be paying attention to right at 8 30, which is two and a half minutes away.

the Bureau of Labor Statistics If you go to Bls.gov the CPI report here will update so we could check that out. but I do want to let you know what's going on with me. Well here I'm checking out the dollar I now want the dollar to keep dying. Um if you guys haven't are like checked it out yesterday you knew I had a bunch of SBX puts.

you knew I had a bunch of Tesla puts and I got into those actually two days ago and I kind of was just refusing to admit that I was wrong and it ended up costing me a lot of money. So I cut the SPX puts I cut the Tesla puts and that ended up costing me about 40K And then throughout the day yesterday I kind of saw an opportunity I wanted to take care of so or take advantage of so I'm now in some SPX calls July 14th this Friday 4475 I have 50 currently up 73 so I haven't made back all that money but I've made back more than half of it. so we're gonna see how this all goes. high risk High reward if the Spy which from a technical standpoint were it could be a triple top.

So I see a high here. Basically the high is around 444 maybe 444 and some change. So anyway you have 444 and smacked smacked. but here you have a higher low so kind of a cup and handle leading into it.

This is a nice technical setup, but do technicals really matter when you're about to just get a huge inflation report? A very, very very influential re Inflation report I Don't know I don't know I don't know I Don't know. We have about 45 seconds to find out. Let me load this up. We'll get Rick Centelli on the horn.

We'll call into our buddy Rick As of now, there's a 92 percent chance at the end of July we do get another 25 bips, right? hike just so everyone knows. and then other than that, let's get this going. and I'm swinging for it I am passed out I'm swinging for it I'm swinging forward Squawk Box on CNBC we're just seconds away from June CPI I'm expecting it that they will go through it. their Futures right now up 57 points I Want this to get to 444, 445, 446 above 446 I'd probably cry.

Get the 10-year Let's continue. All right, let's get going. Five, four, three, two quickly, one in about eight thirty seconds. What way are we going? We've got pretty good days Monday and Tuesday is it going to hold, but we figure it's up about 40 points out of Tom Lee's hundred that he was predicting.

we're going to get an answer Rick Santelli Come on, it's a CME uh in Chicago He's gonna just have a bunch of numbers in comparisons in about two seconds. Hey Rick Come on, Rip it. Yeah, that's absolutely true through Consumer Price Index for the month of June, We're expecting a headline number to be in the neighborhood of Up Three Tens, but I'm going to be paying most attention to the core at Up 51k 53k. I'll tell you why in a moment.

Uh, as we wait. Come on. Hold for me. Hold for me.

If you look at that, do I take the money up two tenths of one percent. Up two cents to one percent is to get a hold. Uh, to the up One tenth in the rear view mirror. It's a one.

Is it gonna hold it? Please Fucking hold now. CPI Core X Food and energy up to 10. Yes, two. Told we're coming in.

Cool. That means it's not the fourth consecutive month. Come on. We were expecting point Three.

Came in at point Two. It's cool. This is good in a row of 410, a barn burner higher. and that was a record going all the way back.

The last time we had something along those lines was from October of 89 April 90. Uh, where it was nine in a row. So we stopped that as well. And Up Two tens.

Uh, on the core is the lowest level going all the way back to February February of 21 when it was only up 110.. And if we look at year over year, up three percent. Four percent in the rear view mirror. Well, four percent.

All right. We came in cold. We came in at three percent since March one. So when you see three percent nice, we're coming in Fucking cool.

21 393 to 390. We see that the pre-opening equity markets have rocketed 66k, 65k, 66k, 67k. We are going to monitor. That's how you fucking do it.

I Don't think so. but very little doubt that they also fuel some wage inflation. We need to pay very close attention to that. Joe All yours.

So no change in. Uh, so Bookfar was on. He said they're going in July Uh, no matter what. No red, no red, no red.

dead probability. Well, it's dropped a little bit and it's slow moving right now in the Futures. But we've gone from basically 88 89 words pretty much since the farm numbers. Huge technical, psychological level.

We're above the highs. The high was 4430. We're opening at maybe four four five, sixty percent anytime soon. They seem to always like to go and the in the Federal Reserve voting panel are in sync as they seem to be I think they're giving a little support right here.

I Don't think they're going to the rocket support. Come on, let's see your four four, seven, four four eight. Just go for it. So where should fed funds? Come on man, we assume about Core.

Yeah, it's in a downward Trend no, Come on. And how much should we add on Core to get to the FED fund? Given what we just manipulation right here. What's the number from 8 30 240 to 8 33 30. it's a moving Target so you know.

Let's look at where CPI Core has been. Okay, so it peaked him. I Bought calls at Market Close You and me both nine Point One, Eight Five eight, three, eight two. This is volatility test for the moment.

Take profits now 22. It dropped under seven. That kind of reminds me of five. Then six, four, six percent, five percent, Four point Nine, four percent, and now three percent so we could see.

Uh, I'm sorry that that wasn't Core. that was year over year. If you look at Core, that's been much stickier. It was six points percentage.

stamps dropped a little bit, which makes sense because inflation came down quite a bit. Inflation numbers all coming in cool three percent versus three point One and Four point eight versus five. Remember last February Vehicles used vehicles definitely dropping. Look at it.

I Think that over a year over the next 12 months, we're gonna get it done. Very close to going down. Hey, why don't you? Negative Nancy Shut your mouth about that. Plus months and that's the right.

How about that? You asked me where Fed Fund Futures need to be. If they're taking the tact that they, how about that. Control it immediately and see the drop immediately. They're gonna have to go two or three more in my opinion, higher than they currently are.

So another 75 basis points. Maybe they do 25, Maybe they do 50. But the point is, it's coming down as I reference by going over all those months and I continue to think we're not going to only see the same type of progress a bit more slowly on the year over year, but we're going to see it continue. It's all going to occur Rick higher for longer I think Rafael Bostic has expressed some of those exact sentiments I Think that's the issue.

that's the sound of the Bears vomiting points Rick Uh, thanks. Stay with us. Uh, let's bring in a few more. CPI was actually hot.

No, it was cool. Allison Schrager is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute Betsy Stevenson is an economics professor at the University of Michigan and a former member of the President's Council of Economic. How funny Would it be when they're like they're listing off all of their stuff like an economics professor at the University of Michigan a former hedge fund manager. What if like, can you guys picture me right here like the next block over and they're like Matt Coors a degenerate retail Trader Like they just list everyone with their credentials and then I pop up and they're like this kid has a problem like local degenerate Gambler Matt Cores What do you think about this situation I Think it's a worthwhile pitch advisors.

We also have our own senior Markets commentator. uh Mike Santoli uh I'll get to you in a second Mike Some interesting that Bitcoin Gold the dollar Index I mean they're all like look at that 4.8 versus five uh a a number One thing attention to Allison Fed's going how many more times? Um well. I Think well, it will depend. Certainly in the next report, they should still high in services and that suggests that this last you know, 200 basis points might be a little stickier and a little bit more entrenched than what.

The fall might not continue to be as fast and as steady. So I think yeah, um, potentially we might be going another 75, but it probably will know more in the fall for sure. Professor Stevenson What do you make of this number? It's progress. but uh, it is it going to be uneven from here on? Well let me just say I I think another 75 would be a mistake.

And what we're seeing in this number is that this is a game that requires patience. It is coming down. Uh, we got a little stuck on core former Cea Betsy Stephen Another month of you know, 0.4 so 0.2 Consumer Price Index come down I needed to see percent the. The thing the FED has to do is it's made a promise to raise rates at least one more time.

so it's going to have to do that because it's sort of features rip higher as inflation report comes in lighter than expected pointing out how hell yeah it does have to come down slowly and it requires patience increases Still working through the system. That's why we see the number we're seeing today and they're going to have to, uh, you know, give it time to continue to work through the system. Look at the jobs report we saw last week. we see a labor market that is slowing.

not crashing, but slowing. We see inflation that is slowing. This is exactly what a soft Landing looks like. Wow.

Uh, Mike Santoli on on the 10-year and in the two-year Are We Now below where we were last Wednesday before that ADP report. If we were given back all those that you know it looked like the look like yields are finally getting um to believe the the FED Now we're back below where they're now, they're challenging the FED again. Well I think they're believing the FED In terms of the next you know, 100 feet of road right ahead of us. The July meeting I think that's pretty well priced at this point.

Uh, the FED has been saying I think they've been trying to send the message Powell has that they're willing to allow just time at these yield levels to do some of the work for it and and one of the reasons stocks have been able to do well this year. The whole equation has been is inflation going to come down faster than the economy deteriorates or demand slows And that's been the case. Inflation has been more benign than uh than the concerns about growth have really taken hold and so that's a comfortable spot to be in. And then when you're talking about a meeting in a couple of weeks for the Fed and then nothing in August you have a September meeting that's very much open I Think what you're seeing the market say is a better chance that the Fed's just about done.

And by the way, the FED hasn't been the main story for a while. The Market's been acting as if inflation was mostly a 2022 problem where one year past that Peak stackflation Panic we got in markets with the nine percent CPI people assuming that uh, recession was here and we've been I think essentially uh, making our piece with the current Uh current yield levels not cool? Who knows if that. uh, do you think the market took a fair bit of credit for a pretty good inflation print Today before we got it, there was a lot of confidence building that it was going to be a downside. Surprise question about whether we can persist around these levels of CPI I mean the drop in yields Mike is giving a free pass at least for now to the tech trade after a tour of first half rally I mean we questioned whether or not they can run in reaction at least some fairly big gains particularly among the higher multiple stocks like an Nvidia we can open above 440 for sure.

Look the the the tight connection we saw last year though. dude. imagine if we hit 450 today and the direction of Yields was really been broken this year, it's just Yields has not been the main movie here. Spy is currently up 0.74 which is the upper end predictions.

This year, it's not just been seven stocks and Industrials and consumer cyclicals and transports have been outperforming. Credit looks okay. in other words, the market for now is betting. We have something like a period where the soft Landing seems plausible whether we, ultimately, you know, get that or not.

Financial sector big Pot and remember financials report starting this: Friday JP Morgan Wells Fargo After you know the financial sector within the S P 500 looking for some people, can we can they Orchestra energies looking really good oil look at oil oils superstitious and I have actually been Pro soft Landing until last week In the fact that everyone now expects it makes me so I mean I guess I'm still cautiously optimistic and uh, like sort of I said let's just wait and see if as I said, what happens to wages and the parts of inflation that are a little bit harder before we declare Victory I'm in Oxy at 68 so I'd love for this to keep going. You know I think they can and I think I've been showing safety Morgan Slightly agreed, you've seen the Bank of America 1.3 Pandemic. What they really cared about was the labor market City point nine percent Wells Fargo's up as well. Okay so financials and energy looking really really good.

Um XLV let's look at Healthcare UNH also reporting Friday flat. Um, utilities utilities are up 0.26 so utilities Health Care Financial energy all up. Obviously it's just checking on tech tech is fucking ripping food at home Apple's looking good. looks like it might want to rent 190.

an open Tesla's up Tesla going from 267 to 277 to up ten dollars Rick if they do go another 25. Rick is that overshooting or or is it close enough for government work? What do you think? Will you be happy with that? Will you be satisfied? Oh yeah, I think it's close enough for government work Joe And if you'd asked me if we're gonna have a soft Lane Market Maybe given a little bit of it back right now, but just like inflation, maybe a retouch of 4 500. Biggest problem we have is going to be commercial real estate. That's going to be the price that we pay.

There's your hard Landing but it's going to take years before we really know that fact. Yeah, and nobody coming back to work and everything else. So uh yeah. commercial real estate is challenging all right.

Uh, thanks. Uh, for a lot of reasons. um I think talking about how tough Hollywood is I ain't even figured in AI for these poor writers good God I mean did you ever imagine what they would do what somebody would do with your likeness? I mean if they own your likeness and they own pictures of you, they own the footage. The content that you create is she literally just quoting because that's what BlackRock got it anyway.

Alex Black Mirror and Mike sorry I'm so in finance trading mode, but that's literally the premise Melissa Lee Just tried to pass off an idea like it was her own when really she just watched Netflix the show Black Mirror Um, everyone hates Joan or what I think it's called that the Joan one. It's the new the newest season of Black. uh Black Mirror and she was trying to pass. The idea offers her own, but we're odd to her.

we're on to it. like I'm not losing my mind right? Like that's literally what she just did. Where she's like, well, have you ever thought about likeness and how they could do anything like that's the entire premise there. Um, so we're on to her.

we are on tour. She's not gonna get that one past us. Um, dollar vomiting Good. My first downside: Target Let me throw up the daily chart on the dollar here.

Uh, pretty evident. Pretty freaking evident around 180 is what. I'm watching 78 80 Something like that. If Trading View ever lets me move somewhere in here, um, this is what: I'm watching 100 Oh, you guys can't see it.

Uh, how do I make it higher up there? Uh, so these are the lows: I'm watching on the dollar index Low low low so 182 178 Something like that Low low. See this test. Maybe a hundred and one flat could be an important level. Some this 20 cent region is important if if if if the dollar vomits below it, if it, if this is not support in the dollar vomits below it.

I Think we're talking about the Spy gaining up to 448 450 if the dollar vomits that hard. So I'm definitely paying attention to that here. I'll even set up an alert on the dollar just so we have a better idea if it is going because I don't usually leave the dollar up there. All right? Um Tesla moving Netflix moving Nvidia in video back up to 430 Microsoft back up to 336 Apple Kind of like yesterday.

Apple Not catching as strong of a bid as these other ones are. Uh, oil we already saw. Oil is rippity, skippity doo da. Let's check out: Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold Ripping 1951.

let's check out Bitcoin Chilling just below 31 000 East chilling just below 1900 as of now and I get it, we have about 45 minutes until that Bell goes dingy ding ding ding the the things are looking bullish. will it hold I Don't know if we take a walk down memory lane I Can kind of show you I want to give you a reminder of how this all played out historically. so I took the time to review how the market traded over the past eight the past eight CPI reports and I want to remind you that out of those ape, seven of them were Gap UPS As long as nothing crazy happens in the next 45 minutes, it looks like that record is going to be improved to eight out of nine being Gap UPS Now being a gap up doesn't necessarily mean that you're green on the day. Sometimes you Gap up and you sell off hard.

So when you consider the opening value until where we're where we were at the end of the day, when you consider the last eight, five of them were green, three of them were red. So in terms of Gap UPS that's I would argue. the statistically relevant clear thing here. seven out of eight being Gap UPS that's what I bet on yesterday.

looks like we might be getting another Gap up today. so we're going to move to eight out of nine now the other one I mean five out of eight isn't that good I mean you're literally just above 50 50. So and that's once again from Market open to where we close at the end of the day. not from the previous days close to this close.

I'm talking about from open to close Fiverr Green three are red out of the last eight CPI reports. Now just remember tomorrow we get the PPI report another inflation report that one the odds are actually a little bit more favoring of the Bears in terms of Gap up and GAP Downs 50 50 four Gap UPS four Gap Downs In terms of red and green five Reds three Greens So kind of the inverse of the five greens. three Reds We see with CPI So PPI data um I mean just quantifiably over the last eight months, a little bit like it favors the bear slightly, while this one is more so favoring the bull. So out of the pass eight and I'm not saying this is always true and it's going to be always be true.

I'm just talking about out of the last this many. or you could also say this many or this many, this this many. that's how many eight. Uh, out of the last eight, the CPI favoring the Bulls Now I do want to show you some of the hecticness that has occurred on these days.

Where did I save this all? I had these all marked out for us Oh now I'm so embarrassed. Where are they. Where are they if this ever loads So so embarrassing there it is all Okay, so the blue lines or CPI the white lines are PPI So we are going to be looking at the blue line. so I want to kind of give you a little bit of a walk down history Lane So the very the most recent one we popped on the CPI report from 8 30 onward we pop right before the market opened.

We vomited, We popped that open, then we vomited hard and then we kind of continued up until around 2PM So this is the most recent CPI day. This is how it played out. strong pop. Right before Market opens come down, we make a new high right at Market open.

then it gets hit hard. So that was the most recent one. All right, let's go to the one before that. if we go to two times ago, you're going to see that we popped very very hard, we sold right into Open and then we actually continued selling.

It tried to save itself, it couldn't and then we actually sold off all the way to 130 and then it made a bit of a recovery. so still technically green on the day. But the actual intraday action, lots of whips, all huge sell-off Huge recovery. All right.

So that was two times ago if we go back to three times ago. once again, big gap up. Huge gap up. Um, it seems like clearly there is a trend of selling off right before Market opens.

This one continued this off try to save itself and then it ended up breaking down try to recover sold off even more. So that was one of the clear red days. Uh, and this happened in April So April if you want to look into that particular one uh, kind of noteworthy and how uh, bearish it actually was. Now if we come back to March uh, Big gap up a lot more wicking though.

this one was volatile all over the place. But anyway, overall at Market open it was green and this one easy easy peasy, lemon squeezy. I mean this one popped up all the way till 11 30. then had a hard vomit and then bounced again so that was back in March Now let's keep going back.

Let's go to the one before that. we're going to review the eight. Uh, this is actually one of the few that actually was a gap down. remember how I said seven out of eight were Gap UPS Well this is the one gap down, but on the gap down one we opened and it actually had a strong push and then around 10 15 it got smashed hard.

then it bounced back so just want to throw that out to you. Even on the gap down, there was a push at open and then some of these Gap UPS have hardcore sell-offs at open so just something to consider. Um, if you come back to the January time frame, it was all over the map. we went down, we went up at open, we went down and even though we went down right at open, strong push all the way up to 2 p.m so just want to let you guys know about that.

and then I think there's two more that I have if you come back to the December one massive massive push. I mean we went from 401 all the way up to 411. the Spy went up 11 right ad open. We just started to sell, sell, sell, sell, and we sold all the way down to essentially the pre-market low.

So even though we opened at 410, it ended up selling off 10 bucks and then it did nothing for the rest of the day. So I I'm doing this to kind of showcase the fact that not all of these pushes just hold. That's not necessarily the trend we are seeing. and then the last one that I have marked out is in November obviously November of last year huge push.

at the 8 30 report it went from 375. We ended up opening up at 388. Uh, kind of messed up for the first 15 minutes. but then from there just pushed all day.

So my point in going over this with all of you is the actual day itself is a very absurdly difficult tough day to trade. Hang on I don't want that up. Um, the day itself as in from 9 30 to 4, we're seeing lots of fake outs, lots of whips, huge sell-offs, huge bounces, huge pops, huge smashes. So the odds are yeah.

okay, it is good to Gap up. I mean seven out of eight? I mean as long as things hold steady for about 35 more minutes, looks like we're going to be getting another Gap up. But don't think that just because we're getting a gap up that that is suggestive of like, oh, we just rip all day. In fact, at a two out of the last eight I believe actually acted that way.

While other ones were even on the gap down one, we popped up hard. then we still came down, but that was a strong one even though that was a gap down one. and then some of these other ones even on a big gap up I Just showed you that one where the Spy gapped up ten dollars from 400 to 410, gapped up two and a half percent and then all day just sold. So I I'm going through all this to just make it very, very very evidently clear that okay, part of the battle was won today.

part of it was one. but I don't want that to be misconstrued that we're just going to be ripping all day. Um, I Would love for that to happen I would absolutely love for it I would love to see 447 448, 449 450 I mean as long as we keep going up I'm going to be more and more stoked, but we're also trying to be realistic here of how has this day played out in the past. Not as easy intraday trading as you probably want it to be now.

Also on that note, I do want to call out because of such a strong Gap up. That obviously means we do have the opportunity for a downside Capital to 442.97 They're basically that's yesterday's high. We're currently trading at 4 45 28. obviously yesterday's high is 440 297, which is leaving a literal Gap in the chart.

If we were to open right here, there would be an entire untested region of supply and demand. And we know statistically for whatever the reason the phenomenon is like my thought on, it is just the market likes to test untested areas. It says oh, okay, and it likes to fill these gaps. We saw a huge gap right here between Thursday June 29th and Friday June 30th and then we actually gap down below it and got part of the Gap filled right here on Thursday the 6th and then the very next day Friday the 7th.

We took care of both this Gap and the first Gap There's another Gap back in here that actually didn't get taken care of until the sixth. So my point is is a lot of the times gaps are filled the very next day, but sometimes it does take a while and there's no guarantee it has to be filled. But the odds are favorable of those types of plays. Now will it happen today? I Have no idea I Know the odds are good for a gap Fill Play But today is particularly unique because we have a catalyst event.

Inflation just came in cool. In fact, it came in really cool. It came in at three percent. That's not far away from our goal at two percent as you heard that person from the University Mission Michigan Speaking like I mean this Actually, we might legitimately have signs of pulling off a soft Landing which I'll be the first to admit we were all just making fun of the FED of like, oh, this concept of a soft landing and all the memes of planes just going into the side of a mountain.

I mean it's a good report I mean we'll see we we know that there's still going to be another Fed rate. Uh, it seems pretty evident there's over a 90 chance 91 chance that on July 26th, Wednesday July 26th we find out of another 25 bips right hike. and we know according to the Sap the summary of economic projections that they were kind of planning for another one before. like between July 26th and the end end of the year of a whole nother one.

but maybe they can kind of chill out on that. Now to be explicitly clear, I'm in no way no way, no way, no way, no way saying that we're gonna get rate Cuts This year, that's not gonna happen I Truly do not believe at any point in 2023 will we be getting rate Cuts In fact, I'll take that up a level if we do get rate cuts. It would actually make me absurdly bearish, because if they're cutting rates prematurely, it means that they have an indication that something's going on on the economy. That is very, very bad.

If out of nowhere we start to get rate Cuts I am going to be as absurdly bearish as I could possibly be. So I in a weird way I Almost don't want that to happen I Think an ideal case is one or two more 25-bit brake hikes and then we just coast. And we coast. And we coast.

and we Coast until inflation comes back down to the levels we need it at. which is two percent. Um, so that's kind of. if you guys are just joining now.

this is kind of the idea of what's been happening. We have up the old 10 second chart because we're degenerates and it makes us feel something. Uh, so Bloomberg The expectations. We are seeing a big decrease, almost like deflation in the world of used cars.

We see that rent kind of going sideways and obviously that's important. but arguably what's the most important is this right here. Chipotle Test robot that can prepare avocados to make guacamole faster now I Get it. I Get it.

I Get it. I Get it If you rewind. A couple years ago, the thing that was going to save the world was blockchain. If you rewind.

Most recently, the thing that was going to save the world is AI Folks I Present to you: What's actually going to save the economy. What's actually going to save the world? Robots preparing our guacamole. Prepare avocados. Make guacamole faster.

Do you know how much time you could save in your day-to-day life when you're not waiting for your guac? When you imagine, instead of waiting three minutes, What if we could cut that down to two minutes and 30 seconds? Think about what you would do. Think about what you would do. 30 seconds per person per day multiplied by 8 billion people on this planet that we're saving a bunch of time and think about what we're going to be doing with that. Think about it.

So shout out to Chipotle for putting the global economy on its back and bringing us to the next level, bringing us to the next level. Chipotle Said it developed a robot that can prepare avocados before they're added to guacamole today. it takes roughly 50 minutes to make a batch of Chipotles guacamole. The restaurant industry has been struggling with a shrinking Workforce and Rising labor costs.

So the avocado which I just love the name I Absolutely love the name the avocado. Uh, and then it looks like a guy who would very much be operating the avocado. So I wanted to share this. I Get it, A lot of people are paying to Inflation.

You're looking at what's going on in the world of crypto. You're looking at what's going on, um, globally politically. But we need to take a second to focus on the truly the biggest news of the day. And the name of that news is the Autocato.

So I felt compelled to share that with all of you. Bank of England warns of mortgage Agony says monthly costs could jump 500 fake Monopoly dollars whatever that sign is for some. So Bank of England they're also still facing recession. uh, the way the U.S economy is, inflation's so bad, it is trending in the right direction, but still not at the magnitude they want it to be.

In a similar note: Americans Prepared for tighter budgets at student loan payments resume starting in October This could be problematic and I've been kind of calling that out for the latter half of this year. the final two quarters I Don't think the Market's going to be as amazing like rippity skippity doodah as it is now because we I think there's going to be issues with companies and their guidance. I think there's going to be issues with just less money going into the economy as students like. or I guess people who have student loan payments are just gonna have to now start paying their bills instead of injecting it into the economy.

So I think there's a little bit bit of some problems Brewing underneath. Not to also bring up what's going on in the world of commercial real estate, people are just straight up not returning to their offices to work. So a lot of corporate real estate right now is like truly underwater. so some interesting things going on there Just want to throw it there just so it's somewhere in the back of your mind.

Google Meta got customer data from tax prep firms and lawmakers want a probe now. This is highly concerning, but are any of us surprised like I just I'm kind of running under the assumption that they have all of my information a hundred percent of the time. I'm just like I don't like I don't like it I'm not saying that Google and Meta should have all of the data related to my entire life, but is anyone surprised that they do? I just it's not good and I don't know. it's like sometimes I absolutely hate Elizabeth Warren But then there's things like this where I'm like, hey, it's good that we have a professional care in an office to get us some answers.

So um, we just got to be careful about the yin and the Yang in this situation. there are people you're not going to like, but remember that doesn't mean you despise every aspect of them. If there was someone that was just going to yell at Google yell at Meta and kind of fix it. I mean Elizabeth Warren is a professional Karen like and we could use her for that.

So I I Think we do need this diversity? A group of lawmakers led by Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren are calling on the Biden Administration to investigate possibly a legal sharing of taxpayer information by tax prep software companies like Tech Platforms, Meta and Google. In a letter, the lawmakers laid out key finding from their own probe that expanded on the reporting from the markup, and The Verge which initially revealed the data sharing. Both the tax prep companies and Tech firms were reckless in how they handled sensitive information according to the lawmakers. So hey, I'm not the biggest fan ever, but there are situations where I'm like hey, it seems like she's at least fighting for us I'll give her that one now.

Remember even though we got the inflation report today, the party doesn't stop. Today we get another inflation report tomorrow the PPI report. So today was consumers tomorrow's producers and then on Friday we get consumer sentiment and between Thursday and Friday tomorrow and Friday we are going to be getting it's the start of earning season so it's party time. So tomorrow before the Market opens we get Delta and Pepsi Delta will be setting the tone for Southwest United and American if Delta beats I fully expect all the other ones to beat.

If Delta misses I fully expect all the other ones to miss Pepsi I believe is going to be setting the tone for Coca-Cola but also just kind of consumer discretion. Consumer defense plays in general. And then on Friday The really? we get going JPMorgan City Wells Fargo and BlackRock So three of the biggest banks the other one is Bank of America which is next week. and then we also hear from United Health Group the biggest health insurance provider in the U.S so paying attention to that one as well.

So really, between Thursday and Friday it's it's the mark. the mark of the start of earning season this time around. So I hope everyone is ready. I Do want to remind you that the S P 500 seasonal buys for today Wednesday July 12th is neutral.

The Bulls have won the day 52 percent of the time and the profit factor is slightly below one. The buy says neutral so we're not being supported by Tailwind or excuse me yeah, Tailwinds we're not running into headwinds. It's a neutral day, so not much to glean from seasonality, which has kind of been the tune of this entire week. Five things to know before that: Bell goes Dingity ding ding ding today Wednesday July 12th AKA Inflation day AKA CPI Day aka the day Matt is almost up 69 000 fucking dollars.

Let's go brother, brother Eyes on inflation. Well we saw it, We heard it. If you're just joining now, first of all, Demerit, you're late to class. You know class started at 8 20 today.

There's no excuses, you knew it was coming. and if you're joining class right now, this will be reflected in your report card in the comments section. And obviously I'm going to be bringing it up at Student Teacher Parent Conferences. So like: be prepared I Don't want you guys sitting in the conference when I tell your parents you've been late to class and then you act surprised.

You're like I I didn't know I was late to class. No obviously you know you were late to class and I'm gonna be telling your parents about it. So I If anyone in here is acting surprised about it, it, it's a you problem Microsoft levels up. It does seem as if they are one step closer closer to acquiring Activision Blizzard the judge siding with them in the FTC case.

hot Union Summer We could come back to this, but this is. it. does seem like there's quite a bit of unions right now that are like very close to striking. Another headache for alumina getting fine.

a huge amount 476 million for closing a deal before to buy Grail before they had EU approval. Zielinski pushes NATO I'm in all reality kind of tired of talking about Zielinski I like I don't know how much they can possibly milk that. But anyway, coming back to you people who were related to class. Overall, all items this very first number right here.

All items CPI came in at three percent. Expectation was 3.1 if you look at core coming in that 4.8 when the expectation was five. So inflation coming in cooler than expected. Month over month we came in at point two.

expectation was 0.3 Inflation came in cool lower than expected which is causing the market to ripity skippity doo-dah rip. To the upside is what you need to know. That's that's pretty much the summary of that. Uh, let me check in on the Futures Market Let me make sure we're good there.

All right, that's the daily. Oh, this is already not loading. Fear not. Oh, we're at 4 46.

yo, we're open at 4 46. let's go. Oh, let's go. Um, all right, where are we at now? before that Bell goes dingy ding ding ding.

Obviously we gotta show a little bit of love to today's stream sponsor Street Beat my Robo Advisor Brokerage Trading platform thing that I am currently crushing it on. Now when you sign up, it's pinned to the top of chat. it's in the description of the video. We've gotten enough signups that they decided to give us our own landing page, but really all you need to do is download it to your phone whether you have an iPhone or an iOS Android it's on the Apple store.

it's on the Play store. Download it. It is Free to download. Now you can buy and sell stock normally the way you normally would on anyone.

I Want you to know that Street Beat does not accept payment for order flow Kickbacks just for the people who care about that. But what's cool on top of the fact that you can buy and sell stock is they also have an option. not an obligation. But you can use some of their pre-created AI trading strategies.

and if you want to try that out obviously the code Matt You get a free one month trial on the very first page. When you're signing up, there's going to be a referral link. That's when you put in the four golden letters of mat and then on top of that, not only do they have pre-created earning or trading strategies such as mimicking our Congress people. whatever they're buying, you could be buying.

Whenever they're selling, you could be selling. but on top of that, you can use AI to create your own trading strategies. now. Cool cool announcement related to them: You can actually now connect other accounts.

so if you're sitting there on something like Robinhood and you're like, you know what? I'm just happy on Robinhood and Street Beat sounds cool, but I just don't feel like doing it well. Good luck, Good Well, good news. You can now connect your other brokerages to Streepy. So if you've been on other brokerages and you're like I just don't really feel like moving over, you can actually now use them both and actually just use the money that's in that original one, but still use the AI created strategies that come from street.

So download the app. it is free to download on the very first page. Use the code Matt and that's how you're going to get access to all these AI trading co-pilots So really cool. We've been partnered with them for a while from my own experience.

Actually, I should check in on my account to see how it's doing, what's going to be even up more at Open. but where are we at? I have the most money in the bond strategy which has been crushing it the second most. Looks like it's the top government contract recipients then U.S Congressional buys Those are three pre-made strategies from them and then my own two are Honey Badger and the value Hunter Uh, and literally it's all in the green. So I'm feeling pretty pretty good about that.

So I'm running five different strategies right now I Didn't connect mine uh I didn't like connect mine through like Robin Hood or Weeble I Just made it as an independent account because I started with them early enough, but if you guys want to, if you're like ah, it's GP wasn't necessarily for me. Well now you could just connect your other brokerages to it. So anyway, download the app. It's free to download and make sure on the very first page when you're signing up, you are using the code Matt If you have any questions, reach out to me DM Me: carrier pigeon Me: send me a message through a submarine.

do whatever you want to wow up 69k you can almost pay for that wedding planner. Thanks for all you do. Keep rolling forward. Enjoy your day! Mt Pockets A member for 29 months, an astronaut for 29 months empty Pockets You know I appreciate those kind words.

What a guy. What a guy. What a guy. So my plan for the day? Um, well.

I thought this number was going to be up a little bit higher. uh I know I need to trade the chart like I'm not oblivious to that fact, but it just sounds so cool to be able to make a 100K in a day. So in a weird way like am I holding on a little bit too much for that. like if my like, what what if it runs up to 90k and then the Market's evidently turning and then I'm sitting there just like uh I don't know like that type of a thing I don't know how to handle this right now I don't know what I want to do I don't know what I don't want to do well I don't I'm getting nervous because remember just from all the other CPI days that we saw the final 15 minutes before the market opened, the market did sell off into that time period.

Maybe I should go to the one minute to see what's up so potentially putting in a lower high right here. The high of pre-market is this guy: 44622 We're currently at Four Four Five Four Four Five Eight nine so we're not holding that four four six level. Obviously we still have about 18 minutes to go. so and then maybe we should Mark this out as well.

All right, I'm gonna Mark out just the this pre-market high and also a pre-market swing low. not the actual low. but let's just Mark these out couple of things to consider here. So obviously there could be profit takers that open.

That's always a possibility. Like this is a big gap up the Market's up 0.8 percent. We close that Four Four Two Forty six. The Spy is currently trading at 446 so it's up what three and a half dollars? That's makes sense that a lot of people might just be like yo I'm stoked with that money.

Why would we not take that money? That's a very, very very fair point. So that's one thing. or you could have some people who are looking at the daily and they're saying whoa, Cup handle breakout explosion Maybe targeting 448? Maybe targeting 450. All totally possible.

Actually, maybe we should Mark out some higher levels just to see what's going on, just to see what's good Justice Oh so evident. So painfully evident right there. That's our Target 448.92 We have this support. We have this support.

Uh, we could. Also, this seems to be somewhat important, but okay, this is a good level to be paying attention to. We should also probably be paying attention to this level as well. So uh, I'm watching 448.92 if the bullish case plays out and then after that, I'm watching 450.

Key technical level, key psychological level, and then above that, we have a key level of 454.05 Oh, did that high just get broken already? Yeah, Okay, so we just made a new pre-market high up 75k. So what? Hmm I don't know how to handle this today? Uh, all right I need a thing for a second And these are the times where it's tough to be a Trader versus a streamer because like sometimes I'm like I'm reading, chat and my mind's getting confused and I don't know what to do I don't know what to do and I want to make sure that I'm not doing anything completely fucking stupid because I lost 40K yesterday as you guys saw I don't want to hide that from you. If you're a Trader you're gonna have lens, You're going to have losses. If you're a degenerate player like myself, you're gonna have big wins and big losses.

Um, the way I trade and I'm not saying this is smart. In fact, it's probably not smart. I'm basically always swinging for the fences and when you're always swinging for the fences, you're going to strike out quite a bit. but sometimes you're gonna fucking.

Grand Slam that shit. Um, hmm. how do I want to handle this? But I do have these levels. see like uh, when you have a winner, you want to let it run.

But we have the downside gaffle. We might have some profit takers, ppis some more. Okay, so I know I need to get out of the position today that this is decided the position will be exited today because I know the odds for PPI tomorrow are not stellar and I know today there's going to be a lot of volatility. But also through today does it make sense to try to hold it as much as I can to.

May Arguably, there's only out of the past eight CPI days there's one, maybe two that opened and actually grinded all day. To the upside, a lot of them had considerable dips that opened, some of them recovered, some of them kept selling off. So that's obviously another risk to consider. Another risk to consider.

How do I want to handle this? Take profit? I Know that's easy to say, but folks, you can't be focused on magnitude, you should be focused on percentage and you should all be more than that. You ask yourself, what is the trend? There's not really a legitimate reason to get out if the trend is still going in your favor. I Mean if we look at this right now, if I look at a five minute chart, let's go to the ES five minute chart. On the ES look look at EMA is pointing up the 10 stacked on top of the 20 higher highs, higher lows.

the trends to the upside. you if you have something going in your favor, you don't get out when it's still going in your favor. Important lesson right there. If it's still trending in your favor, why would you get out Now obviously you can come up to key levels and that's when you scale out and arguably right now, that is probably the best.

Piece of advice is like at Major levels, scale out, scale out, scale out. So definitely something I need to consider. Um, but understand I'm I'm trading my account uh Matt please take the 80k. Run please brother, if it rips the 450 then so be it.

Why Why would I just take my money Now though, when it's going in my favor like okay I'm gonna be completely honest I have obviously no one knows how it's gonna open. No one knows how this Market's gonna open. Yes, if it opens and then drops three dollars in the first ten minutes, I'm gonna feel pretty fucking bump. But on the flip side, what if the Market opens and it goes up three dollars? I'm obviously not gonna lose money on this play like clearly that's it's a question of how much money am I gonna make this? this is not going red when I'm up 200.

Honestly, my mental number right now is I know I lost 40K yesterday. so why not just make the stop? 40K Like ensure that I'm just paying off the loss from yesterday to get my account back to where it should be. So that's one of the first things I'm thinking about. But in terms of this, like I think we see this a lot in the retail Community or maybe it's my particular audience is I Think some people are starting to get the concept of your trades are going to be 50 50.

half your wins roughly. Or half your trades are roughly going to be winners. Half your trades are roughly going to be losers. So how do you make that profitable? You make that profitable by winning, leading your winners run, and cutting your losers as soon as you possibly can.

So a good example of my training yesterday was: I held on to a loser too long in reality I should have only lost 20K instead of 40K that's a fucking bummer obviously is that I cut it earlier I would be up more than this actually. Is that even updating right now? Oh no. I think it stops trading I can't get out now. Anyway, it stops trading between 9 15 and 9 30.

Uh, so actually I there's nothing I can do I mean I could get out right at Market open. but uh, this this SPX contract I have SPX calls. it does not trade from 9 15 to 9 30 and we're currently at night 19. so it's just it's going sideways right now.

Um so anyway, you lit your Winner's ride as long as like I've I've I'm gonna show up at all your houses and like try to inform everyone about this until we're all on the exact same page. of. my goal is to get the meat of the move. Yeah I'm a human and sometimes cool values like 69 000, a hundred thousand, a hundred million.

they're all cool numbers. They have a nice ring to it I like that kind of a thing. Um, but really, you should be going for the meat of the move. I think sometimes if you have a specific number in mind, a specific number in mind, it's an easy way to hold on too long or to get out too early.

Ooh the Dollar's breaking down. no way. How lucky am I gonna get today dollars vomiting. Oh this is good folks.

we are fucking. Cruising Why? What is Matt's net worth? like six bucks? Probably to throw a guess out there. Like in the realm of six, maybe seven dollars if I had a throw out. A guess.

Six six seven dollars seems Like a good one. So the Dollar's vomiting I very much want to keep paying attention to that. So the dollar came below 101. If this vomits below 180.

178. Uh, we could be. this could be good. Remember inverse correlation between the spy and the dollar.

inverse as in they go commonly the opposite way. Not always. you can't hold it exactly to that. All right.

Where was I at? So I wanted to open above 446. as long as we can hold on the next 10 minutes, it appears as if we should be opening above 446.. So then the question is what the question is. how do I handle my current position? So I have 50 of these bad boys I have 50 SPX Four Four Seven five.

uh July 14. So it's not expiring today. it's not expiring tomorrow. it's expiring on Friday Quantity 50 Uh, currently up 80k.

Well, it was up to 80k at 9 15. Remember these are not trading right now. It takes a 15 minute break if you're in. SPX I'm not talking about spy I'm talking about SPX SPX takes a break between 9 50 and 9 30.

as you can see, I'm in at 720 they're currently training at or they were trading at 23.30 So right out of the gate, let's just see if we could bag some of these at 25. 25 place, order sell uh 27.50 Like dude, if it just rips at so orders I just want to make sure I did that right. we're gonna like just in case there's a weird pop right at the start. I'm more than happy to dump almost half my position.

Um, all right. Actually, all right. so let me price 10 30. Okay, cool, Okay, cool.

okay. so I haven't I have 50. I have orders already set to sell 30 of them, orders already set to sell 30. just in case there's like a weird dollar pop right at the open or something.

more than happy to dump 30 of my 50. So already planning to scale out I'm in at 720, scaling out at 25 27.50 and 30 and then I have a bit of a runner if somehow it's crazy so we'll see how it all goes. Uh, I'm I just want this Market to open I'm nervous. Uh, it's coming down a little bit.

but this is also the 10 second chart. If you look at the five minute, it's a very, very different story. We made a fresh High uh, we have. Okay, so fresh high 446.68 if you do zoom out on a larger time frame.

not the most insane thing to Target 449. Uh, but I also want to remind you on the daily chart. there's now a downside. Oops, there's now a downside Gap fill to yesterday's high at 442.97 currently trading at 446.

30. Six above 446. Like I said, it's an amazing open. An amazing open.

So I'm stoked about that I just I What? I hope happens is right at Market Open first minute first two minutes I hope there's a rip to 447 447.50 that just dings me like just gets out 10 10 10. I I Want right at open this Market to have a volatility pop that I could just get out of 30 of my 50 calls and then all I have to do is manage less than half my position I could set some trailing stops and I could honestly just start enjoying my birthday early I could just go start ripping some extra shooter Margaritas at Texas Roadhouse as soon as they open I think it's 10 11 A.M and I could just spend tomorrow Friday Saturday and Sunday I could just do a bender at Texas Roadhouse if if it all plays out the way it should, Solar. How much money did Matt make I think Solar's gone. he's probably upset by the amount of money.

but anyway I have one position on right now. You could see it. it's right here. It did get frozen, so it's gonna be a little less than this if the market were to open right now.

This position got frozen at 9 15. So basically right here at 446.47 So technically it's actually worth less right now. Um, if we get above 446.50 well then we're going to be above this number. So it did get Frozen at 9 15.

I'm nervous I'm like my heart's going I wish I had um I wish I could somehow cast my like heart rate or something to all you guys just so you can see what's up. um I'm nervous I I just I'm looking for this pop at Open but I I just can't I don't want to Fumble this one I Had a really bad trade yesterday, but technically the trade lasted for two days. I wasn't sleeping. it wasn't It wasn't pretty.

It wasn't a pretty situation. Should we do the one second ad open votes on the one second? uh, we're going to Peter Pan's if you open a 440, where are you gonna pee your pants I was either gonna pee my pants or vomit I forget which one, maybe both Maybe maybe pee my pants because I did vomit so something's gonna happen. All right. So I want this above 446.50 Unfortunately, that doesn't really seem to be.

Where was the 915 one right here here here? So this is the number above my head is currently Frozen and it was frozen at the Spy being at 446.47 Um, as expected, we saw a bit of a sell-off into Market Opens literally almost over all of these uh, the past eight CPI reports. So this little sell-off right here is honestly less extreme than I was expecting it as we did the run through of the previous CPI report days. there have been stronger sell-offs into Market Open. we also noticed right at Market Open.

um I don't know if I could say all of them but almost all of them. that initial first 15 minute bar was a red bar. Something to consider like I said. My goal: what I'm hoping for at Market Open is a pot to 447 440 725 447.50 something like that that hits all like I have three orders right now I have 50 calls I'm attempting to get out of 30 right at Market Open.

Will it happen? I don't know, you're gonna have to stay tuned. We're gonna have to see how this plays out I don't know I don't know I don't know I don't know and I think I'm speaking fast and I'm saying more just because I'm nervous like I just I want the market to open I don't know what I'm fucking doing today I don't know what I'm doing today. This is a lot of money. This is an uncomfortable amount of money.

Come on, come on, come on, come on, come on, come on, come on, come on, let the kids play. Let Me In let me in. Spy calls or puts out open I Don't know dude. hopefully he fucking calls.

Inflation is still hot in Miami Atlanta Seattle but it's cooling in New York Shout Out New York You know it's not going to be cooling down is my local Texas Roadhouse that's that's if anything that party's gonna be heating up. that party's going to be heating up. Meta threads could be Twitter replacement advertisers have been waiting for Google Meta got customer data we talked about all that dude I don't even know why I'm on this page obviously all I particularly care about uh I want weakness in the dollar and I just want this to go I Just want this. We're going over to the 10 second Be the ball.

You gotta be the ball. Be the ball. B When did the data come out 8 30 As it always does. As it always does, folks, we are 60 seconds.

almost 70 seconds away from findi