A Do Oh brother oh brother oh brother Good morning, Good morning, good morning. Welcome back to another episode of the Matt Cor show where you're Matt Kors and I'm the show and together we are going to do this thing: I Have you I hope you have your cup of joe which which mug am I representing today? Oh just a a black mug I suppose I Think there was initially something on this, but hey, sometimes you lose it in The Ether Folks, we're starting a little bit early today as you might expect because there's a big announcement going down in a mere 10 minutes in less than 10 minutes. We are going to be hearing about the CPI the Consumer Price Index and this is the first time in a long time. I'm talking many Moon Mofa that they're expecting it to be under 3% the median expectations from all the big wigs.

With all those fancy pedigrees working out all the banks, they are expecting it to come in at 2.9% which is still above the target of two to be fair, but it's a long cry away from June of two years ago when we were clocking in at 9:. So we're going to see how it plays out. Uh, hopefully it's something positive just because we're all people who have to pay bills and the bills get more expensive when all these inflation reports go up and up and up. So it's going to be exciting stuff.

Hopefully it's exciting stuff now. Uh, obviously we got to degenerately trade it. It'd be crazy if we didn't degenerately trade it. So I have a couple things uh, queued up here to ideally take advantage of it.

On that particular note, though, let me fix this a little bit. Just want to make sure we're where we should be. Um, I would love for you guys to let me know your thoughts on it. Uh, do you think I should be degenerately bullish on this? Or do you think I should be degenerately bearish? Like what's everyone's what's everyone's go-to thought here? Uh, right? Like I'm going to do it as we did it before.

where I just throw on a big trade like right before the announcement just to see if I could catch something. Uh, and I kind of wanted to get your thoughts opinions. uh, is this going to be a good thing? Is it going to be a bad thing? Where do you think we're at? Uh, where do you think we are at on this one? All right. hang on.

one second. I'm seeing some people yell Dem Merit at me? Is it not going live for some reason over here? Rumble I'm getting yelled at with the demerit, but it says it's streaming it for me at least. Um, wait YouTube Can you see me? Who can see me right now? because I'm a lot of people are accusing me of a demerit. Uh, but I'm pretty sure I'm fully set up.

who can see me? so YouTube can see me? wait Rumble Can you guys see me? Okay, you guys can all see me. All right? Well, good. I'm happy we can all see each other. Than that, I can see you? You can see me.

Uh, it feels like it's pretty good across the board that that's a solid way to start the stream. Um, so obviously. Numero Uno we're listening to the inflation report. hopefully.

fingers crossed. Our boy Rickon Telly is letting it sling today, then from there I do want to talk about how awesome Crypto's been looking Bitcoin uh, hitting 50k coin Mara Riot the related equities also crushing in I Want to get in there? The market itself thus far this morning seems a little bit weak, but obviously it could dramatically change on this report. so I'm not really too worried about that I Want to get a little bit into the world of some of these equities that are looking real good. Nvidia continues to push and push and push officially as of yesterday's close.

Nvidia is the number four company in the US Stock Market Which means that Pelosi who yoed into some leap calls in November of last year right when we were all carving up turkey, she's slinging it with her husband Paul Uh, has made millions of dollars. Made millions of dollars. So we're going to get a little bit into that I have some weird side stories about just random things I found on the internet this morning. so I want to share those all with you? Uh, we're going to do some de degenerate trading not only in the Futures Market but obviously with options.

so shout out to public there. but uh, you guys are familiar with this right here? Uh, you're you're familiar with this look where we're really degenerately training. I I Got a couple trades already in this morning just to lock in on the day, but these are all brand new accounts. from 76 to 80 to all brand new accounts I believe I tethered them together correctly 8282 We're ready to go.

We are ready to go. I'm going to see if I could get the $3,000 in profit on how many accounts am I trading this morning. One two, three, four five, six, seven, Lucky Number seven. Basically the name of the game is can I make back the money I lost in Vegas in like one trade here or am I going to make it worse? We're going to find out.

We will definitely be finding out. Uh, so I'm excited I'm excited I'm excited I'm excited folks. Just so you know, the CPI report, let me switch this up so you can see what I'm actually looking at uh, very quickly. Here's a look at the market.

the spy showing a bit of weakness ever since 120 yesterday. same thing with the Q's The Q's started selling yesterday. Brought the Spy down with it and really it's been kind of bearish ever since then, but we had a pretty Sun sh uh. Fortunately for me, I didn't have to sweat this because I locked my position in relatively early I was bullish but then I got tired because the whole red eye flight and blah blah blah.

So technically the trade would have fully hit anyway, but it would have been a sweat the entire afternoon. Uh, obviously. Bitcoin right here looking pretty strong, just below 50,000 I'm hoping on the CPI report it can go even higher and then coin just chilling at 148 which I am currently swinging stock. Future slip as Wall Street looks to inflation data I Wouldn't read into the price movement right now.

What matters is the price movement after the announcement. So right now I wouldn't feel bullish or bearish I would just say like let's just wait and chill and see how this goes us CPI data to show Services as key driver of disinflation. So right now, just so you know, the expectation is 2.9% for year-over-year CPI and the month over month is coming in at 02 and then when you look at Cor stripping out food and energy, they're looking AT3 So the top and the bottom are the month over Monon expectations, the median value from all the analysts and then the year-over-year is at 2.9 so memorize those because that is what we are looking for. And even though we're really not close the next Fomc meeting, Uh March of March 20th.

So basically a month and a week out. Uh, right now, still high odds of no rate change. So we're currently at 5.25% There's an 84% chance as of now. Uh, which? I'm saying that because there's a lot of stuff happening between now and then.

Uh, but as of now, the market expecting no Fed rate change at the next meeting? Once again, that is for March 20th. Which means there's a lot of things going down between now and then, so just want to clarify that. But uh, we did Peak quite a bit ago. Uh, and we've been coming down to clarify though.

I Feel like this is so commonly misconstrued and misstated, especially by our politicians. We're still driving in the wrong direction. Inflation: The rate. the velocity of increase of prices is still higher than expected.

We should be targeting 2% and we're right now hoping for one of the lowest readings in a while. Coming in at 2.9 we're still driving in the wrong direction. We're just driving in the wrong direction at a lower speed. So this whole idea of like inflation is.

we've beaten it. Bring your prices back down. No, no, no, The damage is done. We're just not increasing much anymore.

It's not like we're going through disinflation and things are getting cheaper. It's just the rate of which prices are increasing is now finally slowing down to what is defined as an acceptable level by the Fed. So I just want to clarify that because I still see a lot of discussion of like bring those prices down, what are you doing It's like that's not how it works, that's not how it works at all. Oh wow, my chat is definitely Frozen are both of these chats Frozen hello hi, wait it I mean I could see you guys out of all the cameras that I have set up in your places I could see you guys.

but I'm getting a little bit of a problem over here which is even more problematic. Uh, because this trade's about to go on so we have less than two minutes. so if you can chat I need to know if you're bullish or bearish going into the initial reaction to this CPI report. Remember the line in the stands at 2.9% for the CPI year-over-year it's.

three for month over month and 0.2 for core month over Monon Now with that all in mind, I'm not necessarily asking you even which way the market goes here, but I am ask asking you what's the initial reaction like I'm just looking for that that very first jolt the first 30 seconds I need you guys to inform me which way you think this is going to go? All right I'm seeing some negative NES over here this trade I have less than a minute to place it. Bear bear Lots of bears. All right. Well I'm gonna fade you guys I'm gonna 100% fade You guys? All right.

let's get this audio going all right. I'm prepped up I'm ready. We don't need to know the five things to know before the Market opens. We are the market.

We are the market. All right. Volume is on as soon as they start talking. You'll be good to go.

All right. Welcome back to Squa Everybody! This is CNBC and we are just a few seconds away from January CPI data. We've been watching the future Ahead of that, you'll see right now, the Dow futures are down by about 32 points S&P futures are off by 15. the NASDAQ indicated off by triple digits, a loss of about 108 right now.

and that's where we've seen things at least for the Nasdaq all morning. Also, been keeping an eye on what to expect from treasuries and uh, worth checking in ahead of the CP number you see right now. the 10e is now yielding 4.15% the two years at 445. uh again.

Expectations for C CPI I think are up of a per but people watching this. the Fed's going to be watching closely as gets. I have no idea what happened but I just made 18,000 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, seven accounts Cons: Price index out in seven Accounts at 18 here we're hitting the wires I don't know how it happened. All I know is 210 of a% is up 310 of% that's since SE of 23 ever do it EAS This game is so easyy Well you equal going to May of last going to April last year was up5 I'm for L numbers for my lak 3.1 on Headline Year over year we're expecting 2.9 but did make progress versus the rearview mirror which stands at 3.4 if you consider 3.1 We've already been there.

we were there in November of last year and we were at 3.0 in June of last year were the Num CPI year-over-year core I think one of the ones I'm paying most attention 3.9% exactly as the recent month December 3.9 2 times hotter than expected and 3.9 is the smallest year-over-year change. Since it was 3.8 in May of 21. we hit some of these indices. but I think it's important to hit it today.

if you look at the headline actual Uh index for CPI it's 38.4 one7. Which means that if you go back to 1913, we've never had this index higher than it is right there STP out food and energy and you look at CPI core the actual Index This This one is seasonally adjusted. The headline is not seasonally adjusted. We came in 31443 by far the biggest it's ever been going back to recordkeeping in 1957 so these numbers are hot.

Interest rates have zoomed up. Uh, these are now representing some of the highest yields of the Year by far 428 in a 10year. we see pre-opening equities of course, moving lower and none of the should be shocking. And this is a cautionary tale for those especially fed speak continually annualizing three and six month rates as if it's set in concrete.

This set of numbers shows that is not true. and the biggest tail risk of any traders that I talk to seems to be higher inflation. Becky Back to you, that's Thank you and folks, for those who are listening on the radio, let's just walk you through a couple of these averages that you're that you're watching right now. with per equities, the Futures are now down by 280 points, S&P futures are now down by 54 points and the NASDAQ has dou more than doubled its losses this morning now indicated off by about 266 points.

So as now getting Mur jumping on this equities, the Futures dropping signicantly. this is a message that's uh, coming through pretty loud and clear marketly sh. look at data, they listen pretty closely. What a dagger stay with us but joining us right now to talk more about the new data we want to bring shut our favorite vill.

Ro Foundation Research Fellow and our very own. Steve Leeman Steve Let's start with you and dig through. Um, what's behind some of these numbers that's not good? Well I think a couple things I think that this issue we talked about that these beginning of the year price increases uh is something. uh that is that drove uh inflation this time around.

uh, a lot of a big increases in medical costs you had Medical Care up 0.7 Uh Motor Vehicle Insurance off up 1.4 hospitals up as well. You didn't You didn't get much. Uh, you got a little relief from the used car world. You had food prices up.

It was, uh, just a lousy month when it came to inflation. Of course, real earnings also declined uh in the month. Uh, worth pointing out. I I Think the other big big big issue here is the owner equivalent rents up 0.6% So whatever the professor uh Campbell said uh in the first half hour.

And what everybody else in the real estate business is saying, which is that rents have either gone flat or been coming down. the CPI continues to pick up uh increases in rents. and not only that, but accelerating inflation in the Housing Industry uh as well. Uh, what's important about that uh for the next couple weeks is that the Uh PC the Fed's preferred inflation indicator does not have a big A waiting on on housing so it won't pick up as much of this and it's still should show depending upon what the wholesale numbers show on.

Friday Uh, some continued decline. I I Think there's a lot of economists that are going to look through this number and chalk it up to a sort of a oneoff beginning of the year increases and still see the inflation Trend as down. but of course the Market's not seeing it that way. The probability of the uh in a rate increase or sorry rate cut in the month of May is down to 37% We went in with it at 61% Becky Wow.

One of the numbers the highest quote was auto insurance. What was that up? 1.4% I Think you said 1.4% Yeah, okay, something like auto insurance I mean that is something where you can't raise rates until you go to every single state and ask them for permission to raise rates. It took a long time those auto insurance companies were dealing with getting hit really hard because the cost of fixing things skyrocketed during the pandemic. It was impossible to get parts you to pay for a lot of things.

They all went and started asking for increases and that takes a time a while to work through. Um, so that might explain that in part, but that doesn't mean it's going to go away as people were new, you'll continue to see some of that stuff. Yeah I I Think you're right about that I think there's this General Trend Where it looks like know January is is is a time when they Orient towards those price increases keep I Would say the jury is out Fed has been right to be cautious here. they're the ones that told the market it's going to be a bumpy ride that inflation does not run a straight line down that it's going to be up and down a bit over time.

So I I think they had it right. What is good As I pointed out in the 7:00 coming, this number with9 they expected and now of course the market has taken St Can see in some of these yields some of the outlooks for rate: Cuts Take another step towards the FED here. food came in at 2.6 year year. You want to weigh in energy down 4.

and big of a fuel oil down 14.6 the econom utilities down 17.8 Well in terms of the economy, cars drop by 3.5 new vehicles are up SE is is M2 for examp these are the bad numbers growing. Medical Care up a bites L Energy so shelter Transportation Medical B number thata it to go higher than expected Shelter up have really really is the fact that the inflation. We talk about how there's this lag in housing and rents for example. but we don't seem to be talking about the fact that the CPI is only measuring rents.

Even the component of the CPI that tries to estimate the the cost of home ownership still relies on rents. and because the cost of home ownership has risen four times as fast in the last three years as rents have, it has grossly understated the cost of home ownership. So instead of being up about 20% it's actually up about 80% But that's not coming through in these numbers. Hey Stephen Stephen Rick If let's say we're trying to figure out a scenario that that makes Professor uh that that we had on earlier I Don't know if you saw it, Rick, but Steve was referencing it.

This is like the nightmare scenario Steve The professor thought that we they're too tight right now, but let's say the economy just isn't cooperating and and and neither is inflation. So they got to stay too tight for too long. Even though maybe they should be cutting, they stay tight. in event when we get a Slowdown or a recession that that's like a blast from the past, isn't it where they can't get it under control even though conditions are already too tight? Is that how we get a recession eventually? Rick Well listen.

I Think that the FED keeping rates where they're at higher for longer is the right decision down. C Aspect: Guamo remain sticky, but the issue is Joe are down 1.6% Help those areas. Whether insurance, insurance, aast have upap uh EV Issues all these things moving forward are not going to be slowed down in a dramatic way. no matter where the FED interest rates much of it his government policy and government policy goes against economics down 1% Any of these issues is down.

Inflation is going to remain. but I think it's a completely different is down 1 1. in the 7s just a second. but I want to get scanned in because he hasn't weighed in yet? Respond to what you think on that question to bonds are down a step back into Steve's Original Point January is always a pretty volatile month, but especially compared months, months, year comparisons.

We've made a lot of progress. It's true that this this is a spikier print than what last couple uh of months especially after have beened. Uh, if you were, you're stoked would say down it's true that you have seen maybe on the side CPI a little bit more strength Goods deflation is continuing down R is taking a while to actually feed in. but the progress on inflation has happened even as the labor market hasn't broken.

And that is good news. Uh, ahead about progress January Toally Industrials are down everything down except for like energy num around um January and February In particular, these are especially months where seasonal adjustment is doing a lot of the work alongside. this is obviously a place where prices tend to be raised around the turn of the calendar year. Crazy, we're gapping down a and take a little.

B9 an entire How Fed policy should be set going forward. Hey, Steve That's a fair point that one month does not a trend make. But as you were pointing out before, one month is enough to push off the idea that the Fed's going to be able to cut rates in. May.

Um, get another set of Num. February How far off are we looking? Uh, before you might actually be able to have confidence in the idea that inflation is coming down as expected? Yeah, I I Think we need to get Beyond these months here and I'm somewhere between um, you know, EJ's idea Oh, very quickly. This basically guarantees that we're not going to get a rate cut in March. So as much as uh Bill Amman Elizabeth War As much as these people are like complaining, they should cut rates the fact that inflation came in higher right now, they're not unless it like dramatically drops in March No, we're not going to get a rate cut now.

Really several good months of fall inflation. And then of course there was the revision last year. This revision wasn't bad, but there was the revision last year and then some squirely numbers. That happened, some upside surprises in January and February and the FED had to reset the whole thing and the market had to reset.

Um, what? I Think you need to think about here from an investment standpoint is to invest with tolerance. Invest With this idea that uh, the inflation numbers and the FED are not going to be priced to Perfection Joe brings up a really good point that there is a debate and we talked about this over a month ago on this show. which is where is the right funds rate for this economy. You had an economy that did north of 3% in the fourth Quarter.

It looks like we're doing somewhere between two and three, at least above potential in this quarter. So far, we'll see the retails sales number on Thursday. Um, and so maybe the idea is the Fed is not as high, high, or as restrictive as had been suggested. I think EJ was there And and and the question I had, which is, uh, if it ain't broke as in the funds rate, how much fixing should the FED really be doing? And maybe the idea is it needs to do less in terms of cutting rates to bring it down to the right Neutr rate than you thought previously with low unemployment and relatively strong growth and still persistent inflation forces in the economy.

and EJ The one thing I'd add to that is the the one thing the FED probably doesn't want to do right now is is cut rates and then have to come back around and raise them. So if you've been watching Powell and Company closely, um, they're going to wait and make sure that there aren't cross signals before they actually go ahead and cut raids. Well, we certainly don't want to have a repeat of of the 1970s here. I I I Think Pal is probably thinking about that somewhere in the back of his mind, although he certainly has a lot of political considerations to to take into account as well.

But the the even just the even idea that we're talking about about rate Cuts right now is really silly. when you go back and you look at what Pal was saying and doing in 2018 and 2019, right? because he's stuck in this Keynesian mindset of of somehow fast economic growth is going to cause inflation. Well, what do we have today? We have jobs. numbers that are hotter.

We have GDP prints that are hotter. We have inflation that is hotter. and yet he's talking about rate cuts at a time. Back then when he was talking about hiking rates and and this idea of where should the the FED funds rate be right now, we need to remember just how much demand there is on on the in the loanable funds.

Market We have a treasury that's borrowing well over a trillion dollars a year right now. A Tril All right EJ Scanda Rick Steve Thank you all coming up. We're going to talk to former Fed Governor. No, we're not.

No, we're not breaking prediction marketown now. Pricing in just four Rate: Cuts in 2024 after the January CPI inflation hits 3.1% Before this, they were pricing in six. So they're bringing down their expectations because inflation is remaining too high. This is a huge slide in expectations as markets were pricing in six Rate: Cuts Just over a month ago, the most recent Fred guidance was for three interest Rate Cuts in 2024.

Uh, so obviously what the Fed was kind of posturing and what the market thought were very different and it looks like the Fed was being a little bit more serious than the market was: Odds of a March interest rate cut are now below 10% and odds of a May rate cut are plummeting. Once again, it never pays to fight the FED Uh, there's one thing you take from today's show or lesson or whatever you want to call it degenerate chatting of gamblers. Uh, it's say don't fight the FED Generally when the FED says hey, there's going to be this and the Market's like we think there's going to be this Yeah, most of the time the FED is the one who's going to be right on that particular scenario. Um, that that's crazy.

So the markets getting hit and they are getting hit hard. The Spy down 1.15% you have the Q's now down 1.6% Now is there a chance of some sort of amazing recovery today? Yes, of course that could happen. Uh, would I be like thinking that those are high odds? No, not at all. In fact, the chance of us getting the upside Gap field today is actually now pretty low.

Uh, pretty slim. Uh. anything can happen. Any.

I could get called up to be the next 49ers quarterback today. Yeah, theoretically it could happen. But is it going to yeah? No, probably not. Probably not anyway.

Um, so that's why we're starting early today. I Appreciate you guys getting up about a half hour 40 minutes early to watch me get the direction wrong and still somehow lock in 18.5k on 1, 2, 3, 4, five, 6, 7even accounts do I know what? I did no Did I fail successfully? Yes. Am I an absolute degenerate Very clearly Folks like I'm not I'm not fighting you on that one I'm just simply saying I'm the best to ever do it. The simply saying: I am the best to ever do it.

Uh, so happy that I got that in and we're kind of done here today. Uh, if if you're interested in this type of stuff, by the way, um, they are currently running a deal here. Let me it's pinned to the top of Chat right now. Uh, this is what it looks like Apex They redid their website.

Um, so it's the same one before when we saw the bow, they just made it look a little bit better. But right now, if you use the code Gooni G N I pinned at the top of chat in the description of the video, 80% off evaluations to take the test and then half price resets if you unfortunately fail the test and you want to retake it. So anyway, if you want that 80% off deal basically it costs $30 to take the test now pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. and that's exactly what I did here for these test accounts to try to make them a PA account.

So then I could trade for actual money. Um so I like it because in my mind I view it as to be that nice in between of a paper trading account where there's really no risk and then funding your own full account. So I'm like okay, for a little bit of money I could take the test, hopefully get funded and then that's what I'm risking I'm not risking more than what I paid to take the test. Um, so it's like a little bit of a skin in the Day game.

It's like right above doing your own paper trading. like right above it where you have a little bit of a skin in the game so like you're attempting to take it seriously. but it's not your own fully funded account where if you blow out, you lose all your own money type of a deal. So anyway, pin to the top of chat in the description of the video.

Shout out to Apex for having quite the I Think that might be the best Apex trade we've ever had. like ever. That's crazy. Anyway, couple other things to get into.

Um, just some news from yesterday from today. I Just want to keep everyone a prized of the situation, especially just because we have a little bit of extra time. Uh, since we did start today early. Super Bowl 58 was the most watched television show ever with 123 million viewers.

I Would assume that has to be in the US because I guarantee. When it comes to something like the World Cup the viewership is going to be higher so it must be the most watched within. The US Super Bowl 58 was the most watched television show in history as an estimated 123.4mi rallying overtime to defeat the San Francisco 49ers. CBS Sports said that the figure included viewers across all platforms and was up 7% from last year's 15 15 million average viewers which was also the previous record it has to be for the US.

There's no way that this would be beating soccer on the global scale. Uh, I wish it would say I I'm just assuming I'm assuming it's because of that US Senate approves Ukraine Israel aid but Bill faces tough path through house. my apologies sometimes I just sneeze at some bullshit shit. The US Senate voted early Tuesday to approve a 95 billion Aid package it went through this morning providing funds to Ukraine Israel and Taiwan but its future remains uncertain amid intense lawmaker opposition.

Remember in the US for a bill to become a law. Do you remember all that? Like that weird cartoon song we all learned has to pass in the Senate Then it goes to the house. has to pass there. Then it goes to the president.

It could also go from the house, to the Senate but as it pass both those Cham, MERS, the Senate and the house and then it goes to the president. So just because it passed the Senate does it mean that this is going to officially get passed? No, the house is going to Duke it out as well. and then we'll see how it goes. From there, they'll bill pass 70 to 29 votes in the Democratic Le legislature in on Tuesday this morning.

Uh, it's going to be far far easier for to pass the Senate than it will the house just because of who controls what. The bill must be approved by the Republican Le House of Representatives be before becoming law facing stringent opposition from many in the GOP. As of now, the way things are currently set up, there's a very low chance of it passing the house as things currently stand Now of course they can make modifications Amendment Cut this. Add that that type of thing.

it's going to happen. Uh. but as it currently stands, the chance of this bill passing the house the Republican Le house. Uh no no no no no no no.

Um. and actually I just saw something about this I think it was from Elon Elon Musk and something with Mitt Romney maybe obviously Elon not the biggest fan of Disney De's nuts. uh John is awesome comenting some I thought it was with Mitt Romney Dude, this guy's really really really using his uh, is it in this? Let's see if I can track it down I Thought there was a video of Mitt Romney but now Twitter's being a bit weird. Data dog, these are all the earnings coming out something about Mitt Romney Oh wait, what's this one? Oh wait, this is way longer.

44 Uh I Don't think we have the 44 minutes to rip through that. this one uh Senator Mitt Romney and the $96 billion foreign aid package. most important vote we've ever take as US senators. The vote we will soon take to provide military weapons for Ukraine is the most important vote we will ever take as United States Senators The vote we will soon take Well, was he for it or was he against it? Does anyone know off the top of your head does anyone know if he was for it or for against it? Uh 2023 Illegal migration grows 10x in 7 years.

That feels like it's a good a good stat. what are we doing? What are we doing anyway? Uh, this is kind of the hot political news. He voted for it. Mittens is for it.

Is he like invested in locki? Ron Halberton Is he just like balls deep into these defense contract companies? a little bit of cyber security? I Wouldn't be surprised I Wouldn't be surprised at all Ukraine Aid passes US Senate faces uphill battle in the house the way it's all set up. Very low chance as written to pass in the house just because it is Republican Le uh but this is all for Israel Ukraine and Tai W Um, it's kind of interesting I was scrolling on Twitter this morning reading about it and I there's a very fair argument of how when there's people within the US say like a group like the veterans who clearly need money and they're always told we don't have money for you but then yet we magically come up with money for other places like what about this idea of like make sure your own house is like clean and tidy before telling other people about their house like I Just don't get that. I'm no veteran uh, but I I don't even think that's like you have to be a veteran to have just that logical thought like I'm a happy citizen of the US And then when I look at a group that is really like a major reason of why we have the freedoms we do and I'm like okay, so a lot of the people in that group who ensure that we have our country, they're like hey, we need help right now and the government's like what I I can't hear you? Oh no no no, the service must be bad. You're saying what? Nope, your phone's dropping and then they get like a fucking smoke signal from a place like way far away on the other side of the planet like oh, you need a100 billion? Got it? We'll we'll send it over.

Do you want that in tens, 20s? hundreds? Do you need it in gold bars? Do you need it in untraceable crypto? That's like the vibe that I'm kind of getting about. What's Happening Here is like we have someone in the US a group that's important to the US saying we need your help. Please please please And the government's like what, hey bro and then across the world there's like a slight murmur in a different language of needing assistance and they're like, dude, we're going to give you everything we possibly have. uh, strange, strange times we live in Trump asks Supreme Court to delay a Presidential immunity ruling in 2020 Election case.

Lawyers for: Donald J Trump asked the Supreme Court to temporarily halt a lower Court ruling rejecting his immunity claim in the Federal Election Interference case. A three-judge panel in the Federal Appeals Court Washington DC unanimously denied Trump's agreement argument. excuse me that he cannot be prosecuted for any official acts he performed as President Special Counsel Jack Smith accuses Trump of conspiring to defraud the US and obstruct Congress So while Trump is dealing with one thing in the court, uh, not necessarily going his way, Binance Binance's CZ the CEO ex CEO Uh, he actually did get it postponed. Criminal sentencing of Binance founder CZ Postponed to late April Uh, if you guys don't know who this this is.

Uh, Binance another big crypto play. It's another brokerage exchange where you can get crypto. Uh, they were caught with their hand in the cookie jar and helping the funding of like the worst groups ever. Hamas Uh, Isis was on the list.

Uh, Hasbalah was on the list. There was like various groups that they're like bance. why are you doing this? Uh, so he obviously ended in a pretty disgraced nature. The sentencing of former Binance CEO CZ on a money laundering rule charge has been postponed until April 30th and notice in Seattle Fredal Court shows uh CZ a resident of the U UAE is known as CZ is free on 170 million doll release bond in the US CZ pleaded guilty on November 21st to a charge of failure to maintain an effective anti-money laundering program at Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, which he founded.

So he's going to go down. Uh, he's going to go down. Obviously FTX has already gone down. Celsius has gone down.

Voyer has gone down. 3ac has gone down. Uh, Teron has gone down. It feels like a lot of the cancerous aspects of the crypto industry have now been like kind of brutally removed.

which was it painful for a bit? Yeah, I mean Bitcoin went from 69,000 down to like 16,000 177,000 But now that we're coming back up Crypto: Bitcoin Really just getting above 50,000 Again, we're coming back up in my opinion because all these nefarious players have been ripped out. Now Are there still scammers and illegal illegitimate things going on? Yeah, But the big ones? Those big tumors Gone Gone Gone Gone which I would argue is obviously a pretty solid development. We're still in earning season. Uh, I am particularly interested in how Airbnb Robin Hood lift upstart and MGM do tonight later on this week Sony Twilio ocidental and then later on on particularly Thursday Crocs John Deere DraftKings coinbase Roku Uh, obviously with me right now swinging a coinbase position, I'm particularly interested in that We also have Door Dash up earning season still technically on.

We're not the only other big big company we still have to hear from is NVIDIA uh and I believe that is next week, but actually might be in two weeks. I'll have to double check that. Don't forget that next week. We actually also have a shorten trading week on Monday The equities market is closed in observation of President's Day If you're a Futures Market Trader it's going to be open I believe for half a day.

But anyway, we're still technically in earning season, but the big exciting ones are kind of already done excluding Nvidia So if you're tracking any of these companies, obviously I implore you to take a screenshot. go to E Whispers It's a great Twitter account. Um, so check it all out. Uh, but things are slowly but surely like slowing down in the world of earnings, but obviously on the larger macro scale we still have a lot to chitchat about.

Coca-Cola Sales be estimates helped by higher prices. What is that one? KO Coca-Cola Cola Coca-Cola currently up 1.2% basically Sid Stepping the crazy inflation report we got this morning. Restaurant: Brands Earnings beat estimates fueled by strong Tim Horton sales so Burger King owner restaurant Brands International Topped estimates for the fourth quarter earnings and revenue and Tim Horton's outperformed so we had some of these food chains doing pretty well. Not really in earnings, but an interesting company.

Update: JetBlue Shares jumped 15% as activist Carl Icon report stake and call shares undervalued so J Blue J Blue Jet Blue uh uh. currently up Wow. Holy crap, it's up 11.5% right now. Uh, just because of Icon saying hey, I Like it, activist investor Carl Icon on Monday reported a nearly 10% stake in JetBlue Airways Saying that the airline stock is undervalued.

Icon has had had plans to continue discussions with the company regarding the possibility of board representation. I Mean he's done this before. One of his biggest plays back in his Heyday was a different airplane company which I think is no longer. uh, but he's an activist investor.

He buys a big chunk, comes in and shakes things up and sometimes it works for him, sometimes it doesn't. Uh, But he is definitely no stranger for potentially hostile takeovers. In the world of Airlines Jeet Blue has been cutting cost and working on improving operations in an effort to return to profitability after post Rona travel Surge and block merger with Budget Airline carrier Spirit Airways. So how is save doing this is Spirit uh their ticker symbol is sa uh got hit pretty hard back in mid genan maybe coming back a little bit but if anything it's just kind of sideways.

this is the one that from Barol Dport no's like pretty heavily involved in and tweeting about and the whole Ddtg thing so maybe it comes back. but ever since that deal was not allowed because it was an antitrust violation which is a fancy way just to say that it was a little bit too monopolistic. uh Spirit Airlines getting hit and getting hit pretty hard. but JetBlue now going the other way because of Carl icon.

Now we were just talking about Nvidia and just so you guys can better understand this story. Uh, this is what Nidia looks like. it has been ripping like no other. Not that long ago.

trading at 113 now ripped all the way up to what was yesterday's high. the new all-time high of $746 right now trading at 706 to be fair. So it did just quickly drop $40 per share. But this thing is it's just it's Viagra on Viagra it just keeps giving and giving and giving.

This is Thomas the little Tank Engine like it's just not giving up. it's the Energizer buddy of gains. It just goes and goes and goes now. I Know a lot of you are going to say hey man, this isn't fair.

Like why? why do we live in a world where a politician could potentially know what's happening before the rest of the world does and then they get invested in it. Um, such as Pelosi buying? Let's I Just want to remind you guys, she bought here uh, right in late November when it was trading just below $500 and since then it's now above 700. This is when Pelosi and her husband bought Leap Call Options on Nvidia they swept for one month and then after that it just ripped. Are you kidding me? She's literally made millions of dollars off of this and then yet our government's like I We don't know guys.

It's crazy that that happened, right? We're like yeah, no, no, no, but there's a good chance she knows things that aren't necessarily publicly available like Hey brother, don't worry about that. They're like, don't don't don't you don't worry about that. This is complete like they're looking at us and they legitimately say this is all above board. Don't don't you worry, don't you don't.

You look into it a little bit more cuz it's all above board as if we're all just completely blind. Uh, absolutely crazy. Now the last individual stock that I do have some prepared stuff on for you is Rumble Here are Rumble's most recent numbers: the short interest coming in at 19.5% the cost of borrow still Skyhigh coming in at 113, utilization dropping ever so slightly to 95.4 Short score hanging out at 86 Uh, right now? Rum? unfortunately not holding that $8 Mark Let me bring it up, Rum but still high. What I'm hoping for is this is just a breather back into the EMA cloud and it makes a higher base.

I'm just looking for a continuation of the pattern of higher highs and higher lows and right now we haven't really violated the previous lows so we still have the shot to keep that Trend going I'm thinking okay, it ripped quite a bit I mean not long ago is at three, it was sub 350, ran all the way up to 8:30 I mean that's up more than 100% I'm thinking I'm praying I'm hoping that it comes into this Cloud where we are right now, finds a bit of a new base and then we just pop off of that. but obviously time will tell. only time will tell why. Am I getting weird notifications from YouTube Did I get cut from YouTube already today? Uh no.

I don't think I did YouTube Can you guys still hear me? YouTube is now sending me notifications to my phone I don't think I said anything too bad quite yet. but maybe it's just because I said Rumble I don't know I don't know I don't know. Well, if you guys want to sign up for Apex do that now because I am about to switch out the pin comment. Uh, so Apex it's pinned to the top of chat I'm going to give you 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, two, one.

All right I'm switching this out. Uh, and what's pinned right now is the link to get to this newsletter. The newsletter comes out every single weekend. It's 100% free! Uh I Basically I just break down the previous week What? I'm looking forward into the upcoming week I Then put all the major macroeconomic events I Basically I just wanted to create something that you have a quick reference in your email inbox to know what's going on for that week.

So all the major macroeconomic events, all the earnings that I think you're going to care about and then I highlight really I make bold the ones I think you're really going to care about then I give you the seasonality for every individual day similar to Yesterday Today A bit strange. It's been bullish most of the time and this data is collected from the past 25 years of the S&p500 Futures Market Buying at open selling at close. That's how this Equity curve is created. Uh, over the past 25 years the Bulls have won this day 68% of the time with a profit factor of 1.18 but I can't confidently say it is like a straightup bullish a because the last two years have clearly been bearish.

so uh, kind of giving back a lot of the gains that this day is individually like gotten. so I think it still from a seasonal perspective favors the Bulls but a lot less than it used to. and then later on this week a bit bullish Thursday notably bullish and then even Friday has a nice comeback. Um, sad news.

I Got some sad news. Now the Piper Options trading strategy no longer has a streak of 48. It was not able to hit the magic number of 50. there.

it turned in its first loss in quite a while yesterday. and I'll show you exactly what those were right here. The Piper Strategy at 10: in the morning called out a spy put credit spread at 50 one. uh, and that one uh, because it received 29 cents in credit if you look at the day concluded at like 596 or 94.

so this one actually hit. The one that did not hit was right here. The QQQ put credit spread selling the 436 buying the 435 needed the day to conclude above 436 or with at least within 20 cents of it because you received 21 cents in premium. Did not happen, did did not happen.

Piper was ripping. Piper Almost going for 50 straight call outs in a row but couldn't get there. It fumbled and now we had to restart. We had to restart.

We had to restart. So the streak of perfection for Piper it had to take a breather and I guess it did and it decided to do it yesterday. It is what it is, but turning in the first loss of a while and it was a loss of $112 Fortunately for me, I played a little bit differently because I was a tired little tiger after taking that uh, the red eyee and I ended up still locking in 1,600 before fees. so it was 1,500 after fees.

but I did uh personally. an SPX put credit spread I sold the 515, bought the 510 uh, I got in at 95 cents, was able to buy it back at 15. so I made $80 per one and I had 20. So that's 1,600 after fees.

It's about 1,500 So this is how I was. Uh, this is how I'm kicking off the week up just over 1 1.5k slowly but surely clawing back those Vegas losses. Now this one trade 1,500 like in real time that I show to all of you. That's enough for 5 years of the Gooni membership.

Now remember the prices to be in the Discord are going up in March You can get your first month for free. Check it out, see if it's for you. That's what the link pin to the top of chat is. Click on it, make sure the code goon is applied.

It should look a little something like this right here. Little something like this gooni promo code If it's applied, your first month is free and also if you do it. now that's how you get grandfathered into the cheaper price because in March it's going from $30 a month uh to $50 a month. and instead of it being 300 a year, it's going up to 500 a year.

So if you want to get grandfathered in on the cheaper price, this is your time to do it because your first month is free anyway. so see if it's for you. If it's not for you, pull out. But if you like it, stick around and then your grandfather it into a cheaper price.

So I just want everyone to know that I mean I'm putting my money where my mouth is I'm showing my you my trades I'm showing you that One Singular day is paying for multiple years of this stuff I Don't really know how to make it more obvious I Mean from there there's training competitions, we do private lectures. We actually had a private lecture in the Discord yesterday all about how to play the market. Uh, opening range. The basically the first hour of how to play.

That statistically the best way to play it. So a lot of cool stuff. uh I Just want to let everyone know what's going on, but that's pinned to the top of chat. it's in the description of the video.

All right. Five things to know before that: Bell goes dingy ding ding ding today I Should probably reload this cuz I assume that they updated it with something about the CPI report. broken record Uh I mean the market was looking good and now we are coming down. Down Down the Spy is now down 1.4 We just keep bleeding and bleeding and bleeding.

Wow. Dude, this this inflation report was not so. Bueno Mi Amigo taking off JetBlue Carl Icon buying 10% of the company that Tuesday Tim Hortons and then International Restaurant Brands or restaurant Brands International Excuse me I Always mess that up Uh, they have Tim Hortons and Burger King doing very well. uh Bitcoin was above 50k.

as of right now it's chilling at 49.4 so trying to hold on, but these other players such as coin are getting hit a bit harder most of all time. I Still feel like this has to be us am I Crazy to think that I Don't think that the Super Bowl could ever get more viewership than the World Cup I Think it, it h the most watched television show ever. It has to be in the US right? like I I Just don't Am I am I Just completely off base on this the most watched television show in history I Think it must be the most watched Us television show in history or by the US audience because the World Cup has to pull in like way more like at least 5x that that 2022 FIFA final game had 22.3 to million? Really? No. I In that had to be in the US.

There's no way the worldwide viewership of the like the World Cup that has to be us. I I Just don't buy it. How many people? How many people watched the World Cup final globally? Uh, as well as SM, The Final achieved a global reach of 1.5 billion viewers? Yeah, you're looking at it literally in the US it's 1.5 billion It Blow It's literally more than 10x. Yeah, no.

uh. like I said, no one's going to ever beat the World Cup just because, like so many more. Uh, I guess Global fans I Get that? it could be beaten in the US pretty easily. But yeah, no.

the World Cup literally 10xs this number. That's crazy. That's absolutely crazy. All right, let's talk a little bit about Bitcoin Here your daily Bitcoin Update: Bitcoin surges to 50,000 for the first time since 2021 on ETF Demand.

Now just for the point of posterity I Want you to know as I'm filming this: Bitcoin trading just above 49,000 which puts its market cap at 967 billion. but things are looking pretty pretty good. Bitcoin Hovered around 50,000 after scaling the closely watched level for the first time in over two years. a remarkable comeback from the crypto scandals and wipeouts that had cast a doubt on the industry's viability.

So a couple things: I Believe that there's four major reasons why Crypto is running like no other. but in the very short term. depending on when you're watching this, it's taking a bit of a hit because the inflation report for the US just came out a little bit higher than expected and the markets are not happy. I Think there's a little bit of fear coming back, but once again, that's a very short-term thing.

I think in the medium term of why crypto's been going up specifically. Bitcoin Like I said, I think there's four major reasons and I think there's even more reasons why. I Personally believe in the long term, it goes higher and higher and higher. There's a lot of talk about inflow of money into the asset.

I'd Also like to the note that the momentum players are getting excited as well. So reason: Numero Uno Risk Appetite: The Resurgence in crypto prices comes as expectations of looser monetary policy burnish. the alert of riskier assets. Excuse me, riskier assets.

The appetite for risk has trickled over into digital assets as well. Basically, maybe as the financial. the as the world of money becomes cheaper like money itself, because of the FED fund rate becomes cheaper. There's this idea that people might be a little bit more attracted to riskier assets because they can't get such a good yield from just treasury bonds anymore.

So number one, that makes sense just calling out basic monetary policy. Number two: Recovering losses. I Would say this is best explained as you have the cancerous aspects. the major cancerous aspects of crypto ripped out of the system.

I'm talking about Sam Bakman freed and FTX I'm talking about Tera Luna I'm talking about what happened with 3ac. I'm talking about what happened with Voyager I'm talking about what happened with Cel I'm talking about what's happening with Binance. You have a lot of these big big storylines that were clearly negative that are now concluding and a lot of these nefarious players ripped out of the system. so we just took the cancerous Parts out.

Now are there still illegal, illegitimate, illegitimate things going on? Yes, that is occurring, but at just it's far less of a degree. And now with the Bitcoin ETF approval, you have a bit more regulatory Clarity So it's more reasonable for people at least within the US to operate under the new paradigm shift. ETF inflows I Mean this one's pretty basic math. right now.

we're just below $10 billion of inflows into these spot. Bitcoin ETFs As Supply goes up and we know the demand is effectively constant, price has to go up. The equilibrium between supply and demand is the price. So as demands going up and supplies basically staying constant, price is going to go up.

It has Vult. That's just Basic Finance 101. We are a little ways away from there, being brought acceptance across the board and then obviously Bitcoin having uh this is expected to happen on April 13th where basically the reward for adding to The Ledger ensuring the security and the validity of The Ledger what you get for that is now going to get cut in half. So instead of 900 new Bitcoin being added per day, we're only going to get 450.

and once again this is just has a clear impact on supply and demand. the overlap of the two most likely pushing price higher and higher and higher. So in the short to medium term of why things have been going up, those are the major call outs I want to share with all of you but in the long term, just remember we do not have a perfect monetary policy system. Uh, we have a clear desire for a store of value, an inflationary hedge, and I don't know I don't have a crystal ball I can't be the person guaranteeing that the answer is Bitcoin But as of now, the writing on the wall Very Much lends itself to the answer being Bitcoin Now you have Bitcoin which of course is the kingmaker of the crypto industry and you have seen.

Interestingly enough, Ed you have seen the price of Bitcoin hop back to levels that we haven't seen since December of 2021. Now we are well. as you are saying, we have reached above 60,000 in the peak of what we saw in Crypto Euphoria when people were buying Bitcoin at home before FTX had collapsed. But we are riding back higher and you're seeing the launches of these ETFs particularly for Black Rock and Fidelity in particular have the greatest number of assets being brought in according to Bloomberg intelligence ever for an ETF launch of any asset class.

So you are seeing traditional Wall Street Hop in and help give that value proposition to Bitcoin. We are seeing it finally hop back up to levels that we saw when you initially saw the excitement around the ETF. The question is, does it reach new highs? Once again, you still have the having coming up and coming weeks. There is an argument to be made that some of that is already priced in, but interestingly, it's not just Bitcoin Actually, that's seeing a lot of love lately.

Even some other altcoins or uh, tokens outside of the initial big 2 Bitcoin Ethereum take Salana Salana is up 133% over the last seven days, and this is a network that had seen an outage just a couple days ago. Really. So a lot of Love Back to Crypto Market Multiple outage issues in the short term. Now we were talking more about medium long-term What's going on in the short term in terms of just the gambling options Market They're actually agreeing that they see highers.

now. Will those higher prices be coming? I Don't know, but that's what people are betting on Bitcoin Traders scoop up option bets at 65,000 and higher. The bullish flow is reminiscent of the 2020 to 2021 bull Market when Traders consistently snapped up Bitcoin calls at levels well above the going market rate. Many calls at 65,000 70,000 and 75,000 cross the tape on the dominant Crypto options exchange darab bit over the weekend.

The concentration of activity of the so-called out of the money calls reflect bullish Market sentiment. Now, if you're in the US you can't use Darit. It's not based in the US and my question to all of you is, is there any way in the US to trade Bitcoin Options I'm not some saying something related such as an ETF or even more related like Mara Riot something like that I'm saying straight up: is there a way in the US to play Bitcoin Options to play Ethereum options to play Salon options. If you guys know, please leave, Let me know in a comment cuz I looked for it and I couldn't find a reasonable one.

so I'm very, very curious. Anyway, Crypto Traders are snapping up cheap out-of-the money Bitcoin calls or bullish option bets at levels around the cryptocurrency's lifetime high of 69,000 Nice. We see a concentration of open interest in $50,000 calls and have seen flows of 50, 60 and 75,000 calls in the listed options mark from April to June maturities and this is from the head of American Sales at Galaxy These flows demonstrate conviction from buyers willing to pay a premium to take on these positions, suggesting investors have a constructive view on Bitcoin. To put that in less of a PR public speak: they're bullish and they're jacked to the tits.

Now will it play out? I Have no idea I very much want it to play out, but I kind of only wanted to play out if I'm also on like I'm already invested in it. but I want to do these degenerate option bets I just don't necessarily know how to really execute it. So like I said, if you know, let me know. but very quickly.

Just to wrap this up, Bitcoin Here's the daily chart: Crazy Bullish got hit right after the Bitcoin ETF approval fake out breakdown, recovers, consolidates, explodes, gets above 50,000 and right now it's just taking a bit of a breather. But to have a better idea of like maybe where this goes from a technical perspective I would say switch it over to the weekly. We have a breakout of this high from March of 22. The next level I would really be looking at is 52,000 We have a high, a high, a high all in December of 21 and then after that is where we're going to start talking about the 60s again.

So just a little bit of chart reading. uh for those of you who are curious, but right now things are looking good. Now if you're looking in the past like 12 hours, all right a little bit of a breather. But overall, this is a beautiful, beautiful bullish chain.

And I think that this this beautiful bullish trend is just because people are starting to realize what what's going on with monetary policy, What's going on Inflation? What's going on with the government? And I think a lot of people are waking up to the fact that they want to be in control of their own Financial well-being rather than trusting in the US government. That's my thoughts. Those are my opinions. We'll see if that ends up being right, but I think it's a particularly exciting time.

All right, Rum: 7:15 Right now the Spy getting hit. Let's load up The Q's chart, which is definitely also going to be blood red this morning. Blood red this morning. look at this right.

Inflation: I mean this makes sense. This isn't a surprise at all. if you're tuning in and you're like, why is everything red it's because we had an inflation report come out that came in it. just inflation, came in hot, came in high, came in above expectations which is no bueno.

it was basically it. just this whole concept of the Fed or our monetary policy changing and them starting to do rate cuts. And at one point the Market's like we're going to get six this year. Well, the odds of that are no longer.

They at this point going to be lucky to get three, but the market getting brutally hit. everything. Red, red, red, red, red daggers across the board. So if you're bullish if you swung bullish positions I feel for you I feel for you I feel for you I very much feel for you now if you swung bearish positions I am definitely jealous of you because you are probably barely sitting in your seat right now looking at all your gains and you're just praying for the market to open just so you can get in on some of this money.

Good for like. we're going to see how this goes, but crazy crazy crazy I Thought Bomic saved us. Uh, nope, obviously not. I don't know if bonom I don't think anyone actually thinks I don't even think people who support Biden thinks Biden is working I think they like other aspects of it.

Uh, but I of his administration his tenure. Uh, but I don't even think his supporters are like dude, Biomics is amazing. Um, Bomic sucks. Yeah, well.

I I don't think you're have a high opinion of Biden at all to begin with. I'm talking about the people who, uh, like are a fan of Biden I I I Don't even think that they like what's going on with Biden Omics Biden Dude I don't even think Biden knows what Biden Onics is. He just like put his name and economics together. He's like, oh, this sounds so good.

That's just that's the a PR spin from some sort of I don't know PR think tank in DC and they're like, oh, we're going to call this Biomics. It's just, you know, a whole team just sat there the whole time and they're like, dude, we crushed that. We crushed that name. The market is, uh, at an all-time high.

There has been no recession, as expected. Why not working well? The market hit an all-time high. But remember, the market and the economy are two distinct things. The stock market and the economy are interrelated.

but also our stock market hdden all-time high when the world was shut down because of the pandemic. So to think that they're the same is not right at all. I Mean the stock market is going to rip when the government is printing money and shoving money into the economy because it's going to benefit these stocks on paper for a short time. but then it prompts inflation and then inflation hurts it.

So uh, on an inflation adjusted basis, these stocks are not at an all-time high, but they don't commonly do like no one really looks at for whatever reason. I Don't know why. Uh, but no one really looks at the market in an inflation adjusted manner. If you looked at the market highs for an inflation adjusted manner, we would not be at a new high right now.

But people don't really talk about it like that. Who shoved the money into the economy? The treasury? Um, that's a treasury decision to print about $6 trillion at that point and put it in. Uh, so that is the Federal Reserve which is the Boogeyman Illuminati But was that a real question? Under what Administration The Administration Do you? You realize that the administration does not have the Fed's not technically a government agency. That is a a correlation that makes no sense.

The FED is an independent, unelected agency. Uh, that is technically not with the Fed so that's uh I Guess a weird connection, like no one ever really assigns Federal Fed monetary policy to any of the Presidents that they are under Make it make sense. I Would love for it to make sense, but it doesn't That's why the FED is crazy. All they can do is if they don't like him, they could kick him out.

Um, that's about it. But