Baby baby I'm working on my phone exchanges out in Japan Court Amelia I can feel it 50 Grand in Michigan appearance in Atlanta that's another 20 bands Bring it back to the crib. Ain't invested in my daughter yeah she only three months but we working on a Brando y'all can keep the bendo I Got a plan to put my baby in a Lambo and buy your properties when I'm 50. I might learn to play the banjo country boy with dope dream I'm trying to open up a clinic for the dope fiend and drop a million on the school. Unless some dope team you see the money ain't the mission, but the mission is to make it make a difference.

I said I'm a hustler baby baby baby Thank you Oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother how you doing? We're starting a little early today to talk about everything going on the market. Obviously decisions have to be made, things have to go down and we'll kind of see how today ends up playing out. I Hope you had a good one. Hope you caught the Morning stream I'm hoping that we have a little bit more of a pop into close my position currently down by about 10.

We were looking good. It was a strong Trend to the upside, but now I don't quite know what I want to do with everything? Uh so I'm gonna have to make decisions between now and market wrap up so hopefully this is a green power hour, that's why I did a nice green Hulk type of a thing I Do have some alerts set up in case we have some breakdowns, but we do have to get into important things related to announcements, the overall economy, earnings, what to pay attention to for the remainder. This week we could do some charting so should be a good one before we get into all that. Don't forget to hit the like button.

it helps out with the algorithm on YouTube helps out with the battle Leaderboard on Rumble And obviously if you enjoy this type of talk of what's going on in the economy, degenerate trading Futures options, crypto and everything in between and weird stories about how much I love Texas Roadhouse this is the place for you to be. so you might as well hit the Subscribe button. Um, I hope you're having a good one I hope you crushed it today. Uh, thus far on the day uh, the realized P L is pretty nice.

My unrealized P L slightly in the red, but that might go slightly into the green if the market pushes into close. So I would ask of you folks. Uh, the Spy currently trading at 446.25 let me know, let me know if it goes down below 446 or up above 446.75 So let me go if it goes down 25 cents or up 50 cents because in either of those events I either need to cut a loser or bag another winner on the day. So I want to go through everything and then we're going to be kind of using the second half of this to do a lot of charting.

Maybe we can spot some opportunity and at that point I'll also turn it over to you if you have any charts that you want me to at least share my opinions on. So I hope you're having a good one I hope you're ready for it. Don't forget to smash Smashity smichitty smashity the like button And with all that being said, Let's Rock Let's Rock Let's Rock Let's Rock Uh, this is a quick look at the market. We gapped up as predicted.

Uh, now considering the last nine CPI days the last nine CPI reports. As in the last nine months, the day that the CPI report comes out, eight of the nine have been Gap UPS eight of the nine have been Gap ups and one two, three, four, five, six of the nine have been green days. Well, that kind of depends because we haven't closed out today. So uh, basically I could say five of eight have been green days and we're kind of waiting to see where today really goes.

Uh, obviously I know a lot of people are watching paying attention to Carvana. I Mean it's been a degenerate trade, but making a lot of people a lot of money, obviously the trend, the volatility, all to the upside. So if you're getting a piece of that I haven't played it whatsoever. but if you are, congratulations to you I would be careful.

My biggest recommendation on Cvna is just be careful because I do believe at some point in the future there is going to be a rug event. but saying that that has no indication on how high this could go, it could happen right here. Who knows for all I know maybe 44 is the high or maybe that's just the start and it's Gonna Keep On Ripping ripping ripping. Just when you see like these pump events yeah, I mean you could kind of safely assume eventually a big sell-off will happen.

but there's a huge caveat there of like it's not really saying how big the pump's gonna be I mean this might be it or maybe this is just the start and it keeps going and going and going. So I've been watching Carvana now that I see more and more people talk about it. So kind of interesting. uh that it's actually playing out really really well Apple Big Pop this morning.

Sold all day. Particularly lethargic the way it was yesterday. Good recovery there. Uh, the cues we noticed were kind of like not doing the best today.

I Try to buy this breakout around 11 15. it didn't work out and then obviously the nice buy came around noon, which is kind of reminding me of what happened two days ago where we saw this lunchtime push and then from there it just kind of went flat. so a low liquidity push. Back to the upside after things got smoked at 11 30..

So if you're wondering why today has been a volatile day, if you're wondering why today had such a gap up in the Spy, the cues and many other ETFs and individual equities, it's all because of the CPI report. Dow jumps 100 points after lighter than expected inflation report AKA Cooler than expected Inflation was expected. Headlining inflation was expected at 3.1 That was the median estimate Came in out three if you look at core CPI when you take out food and energy, expectation was five, came in at 4.8 and then if you look at the month over month readings, they were both expected at 0.3 They both came in at 0.2 So inflation came in lower than expected. referred to as being cooler as in what the Fed's been trying to fight.

They seem to be fighting it, so obviously that's a good thing. Maybe just maybe we can pull off this concept of a soft Landing which the FED has been espousing to us for many, many months now, but maybe just maybe they can. Inflation should be at two percent, and at least in the headline, it's coming in at three not far off Now A little bit of the pain here is the fact that Shelter, which accounts for about 30 to 35 ish percent of what's in these readings. That chunk of it.

That one-third chunk is actually responsible for 70 percent of the current inflation. So obviously we're seeing some stickiness and some issues in the world of shelter AKA houses and rentals and that all that type of stuff. So we could get into more detail. If you want what is this one? what are your thoughts on Gblx? Uh, Caleb I will write that down.

So I don't miss it I will write that down right now. Hang on Gblx. Gblx got it. So Big.

Inflation day. Big Big Inflation day. obviously. Uh, month over month.

They are expecting 0.3.3 came in at 0.2.2 expecting 3.5 and 5, and it came in at 3 and 4.8 respectively. So inflation came in cool. Tomorrow, the party's not stopping. We get the core PPI numbers and the PPI numbers.

So instead of the Consumer Price Index we're getting the producer price index so that comes out an hour before the Market opens tomorrow. I Think it's going to be important and the way we talked about the CPI patterns as in the last day when it's like, oh, seven out of eight gapped up, that seems to be the smart bet. We're gonna go over the patterns for PPI, but that comes out an hour before the Market opens tomorrow Thursday July 13th and then I Want you to know that consumer sentiment is going down on Friday July 14th. On top of that, we're getting earnings really getting underway tomorrow before the Market opens.

We're going to be hearing from Delta and Pepsi and then on Friday JPMorgan City Wells Fargo BlackRock And also we get a big Healthcare play United Health Group. So yes, a bunch of inflation reports and in fact two important inflation reports back to back CPI PPI Then on Friday we get consumer sentiment and starting tomorrow is officially the start of the next earnings season now. I Want you to know that for Thursday July 13th as in tomorrow, the seasonality does favor the Bulls Now I need you to remind? Remember this and I will be coming back to it. But you need to know that yes, the seasonality does favor the Bulls.

In fact, out of the past 25 years, out of the past two and a half decades, the Bulls from open to close using the S P 500 futures Market which opens at 6 PM the night before closes at 5. PM the next day, the Bulls have won 76 percent of the time. as in 21 out of 25 times buying out, open, selling it close on Thursday July 13th. the Bulls have won 21 out of 25.

the profit factors 2.0 as in every single Dollar Bet has actually returned two dollars so basically doubling up and you can see that actually some of the losses Uh, there's only four losses. Three of them were recently and then the other one was right back here. So the last three years going a little bit in the favor of the Bears. But overall, look at this: Equity curve generically from the bottom left to the top right and like I said, we will be coming back to that.

I Do want to review some of these trades and everything going on there, but first, I Want to talk about the major thing of the day? Here's the inflation breakdown for June in one chart and you can see what's expensive and what's not so motor vehicle repair. and also Motor Vehicle Insurance surprisingly High catching a couple people off guard there and I know this is kind of getting into the nitty-gritty but motor vehicle repair. Motor Vehicle Insurance still kind of going up now. obviously food's coming down I think I even saw that wine was coming down.

Overall like it is coming down. In fact, you could argue used cars are literally seeing deflation right now, which is odd because the supply itself is low, so it's just kind of showing that consumers aren't even trying to buy used cars anymore, but energy utilities. Airline Health insurance, Gasoline Down, Down, Down down. So we're seeing some quote-unquote positive things because none of us want to be spending any more money.

but there are things that are proving to be a bit expensive. But overall, if you look at the CPI report, it's a lot of negatives. Yes, there's some positive numbers as in still inflating, but we're seeing some negative numbers which from an emotional Financial standpoint is actually positive. so a little confusing there.

But overall, the CPI report was good. Was it the best we've ever seen? Ever? No. but at least we're down to three percent. When a year ago we were clocking in I think a year and a month ago we were clocking in at 9.1 So I like the trend of what we're doing, obviously the market likes the trend of what we're doing.

and in terms of the FED which remember the next Fomc meeting is going to be, we get the results of it on Wednesday July 26th. The market has pretty much accepted at this point that it will be at 25 bips rate hike, but the fact that these inflation reports have come down so much potentially suggesting that maybe just maybe we only get one more rate hike now obviously to accurately predict that we're gonna have to wait for what the FED says, what the Fomc decides to do and also what Powell the Chairman of the FED really says in the press conference that happens right after the Fomc results come out. so we're going to get a better indication at the end of July specifically July 26th of how many more rate hikes we're going to get I'm very much assuming in July the meeting is Tuesday to Wednesday we get the results on Wednesday I'm very much assuming the announcement is that yes, we're going up another quarter point. another 25 bips, another 0.25 to bring us from five to five point Two five.

That's my base case. That's the market. Space Case I Very much believe that will be happening, but now there is an interesting argument that since inflation is coming down, well, maybe we should be pausing. Maybe we should pause in September and November and see how things are shaking out.

and if we need another one, you could fit into the December meeting. But maybe we don't need it. So if I had to guess right now without knowing what's going to be said at the Fomc meeting, I would be throwing this out as the most likely case. Now, obviously don't hold me to it because there's a lot of missing like Parts in this estimation.

But I think we get another 25 bips in July. We get a pause in September in November and then if necessary, we get another one in December but it might not be necessary if we keep coming down and down and down. Fun fact: our inflation would actually be incredibly lower if we calculated the shelter contribution to inflation the way a lot of the rest of the world does. We actually computed a little differently here.

Um, so there is a I Believe it's either Bloomberg or Wall Street Journal I Want to say Wall Street Journal I Was just reading it today. They kind of break down the mathematical difference of how we compute our inflation relative to the rest of the world specifically Europe And we kind of do this like overweighting on shelter type of a thing. Once again, this is my work at all. I believe it's Wall Street Journal might be Bloomberg but uh, just read it today.

Very very interesting piece. Inflation at three percent flag's end of emergency torning 0.4 fed maybe? uh, over the Uh. Here's a number that comes in uh, even better than expected. And that's the Uh over the CPI core on a month over month basis, just up by two tenths.

The expectation was for three. It was four last and that puts CPI core below the anticipated number at 4.8 percent. The forecast was for five percent. At a headline basis.

we get a two-tenths move also lower than anticipated, and that brings it. These were the announcements: three percent. Um, since the pandemic and the lowest. Uh, we've seen Uh so in about Uh two and a half or three years.

So good news overall. Uh, But again, we want to warn everybody. this is essentially a transitory kind of Uh situation. Uh, let me get you a couple numbers here quickly.

Food up only 110. Remember that was a big contributor a year or so ago. and the energy prices up soon. Energy dropping utilities in Uh Energy prices.

Main culprits right now: Shelters proving to be sticky Motor vehicle repair Motor Vehicle Insurance Something everybody's been waiting for. used cars and trucks down five tenths on the month and on a year-over-year basis down 5.2 percent. So a quick turnaround in used car prices, apparel prices up, oh uh, two tenths and shelter prices drop back a little bit 410. So I'll get you the number on uh, Rent of Shelter the one that is uh That Matters to everybody and we'll get the numbers on the X services in just a second.

Your thoughts as you dive into the economic data. Well, this is a bit, uh, better than anticipated, but it basically tells the same story that we thought about going into this meeting. Uh, and we did see the first significant declines. I Suppose you would call it in shelter costs that have been propping up a lot of the inflation that we've had.

Rent of primary residence uh is up by half a percent. no change there. but uh, the owner's equivalent of rent drops uh by drops to an increase of just to four tenths, which is the lowest in quite some time. We're starting to see that get into the numbers which is what you want to see.

Airfares went down 8.1 percent. I'm not sure airfares is nice for the summer travel you you've been flying around. Uh, but uh, a decline in airfares and as I pointed out, we saw an increase in energy. But a lot of this is all going to be offset by the fact that, uh, the base effects from this year.

This is going to be one of the best months that we see and I'm still waiting here for the Services X come in and it now comes in on a month-over-month basis 1.3 percent which is a significant uh improvement from uh, the over six percent we started with at the middle of last fall on a year over year basis. We're now down at 3.93 so we're seeing progress in Services X shelter. That'll cheer the FED but it won't change their minds Pretty much what I said, but in a more enjoyable, fun way to listen to big announcement I Don't know if you missed this announcement today, but Mr Elon Musk has a new company announcing formation of at Xai. The website is X dot AI to understand reality.

Now obviously if you want to dive into this a bit more, you can actually see the brand new Twitter page xai. It's At Xai. The website is X dot AI within a couple hours that already has 180 000 followers. by the time you're watching, this might have even more.

so what's it all about? It was just announced today Elon Musk launches his new company Xai Elon Musk The CEO of Tesla and SpaceX and owner of Twitter on Wednesday announced the debut of a new AI company Xai with The goal to understand the true nature of the universe. According to the company's website, Musk and a team will share more information in a live Twitter spaces Chat on Friday July 14th this is the website Once again go to X Dot Ai and announcing Xai Today we announced the formation of Xai. The goal of Xai is to understand the true nature of the universe. Once again, you can meet the team and ask them questions during a Twitter spaces chat on Friday July 14th.

Our team is led by Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and Spacex. We've previously worked at Deepmind, Openai, Google Research, Microsoft Research Tesla, and the University of Toronto. Collectively, we contributed some of the most wildly used methods in the field, in particular the Atom Optimizer, batch normalization, layer normalization, and the discovery of adversarial examples. We further introduce Innovative techniques and Analysis such as Transformer XL auto formulization, the memorizing Transformer batch size scaling, and the U Transformer.

We have worked on and led the development of some of the largest breakthroughs in the field, including Alpha Star, Alpha code, Inception Minivera GPT 3.5 and GPT T40. You can see the team feel free to do a little bit of a deep dive into them. Relationship to X-corp we are a separate company from Xcorp, but we will list work closely with X AKA Twitter Tesla and other companies to make progress towards our mission so we don't have the most information on it at this point trying to find out some answers to the universe. Four of us for all of us obviously just announced today July 12th We get more of an update on July 14th this Friday I personally obviously will be listening to it because I want to know what's being said I want to know what her boy Elon is up to? but with that right now I Get that they're attempting to understand the universe.

so we have about two days to make wild conjectures about what they will be doing, what they won't be doing. So obviously I would love to hear your thoughts. You also heard the Bell going dingety ding ding ding which is making me worried a little bit because my position is getting all right. my Futures position got stomped out for break.

Even so, I don't need that anymore and then I do have an options position that's currently down 25. My average is 790. It's trading at 590. it does expire July 14th July 14th How do I want to handle this? Uh oh, are we really gonna sell into clothes? Okay, this is probably a pretty important time to talk about the PPI report.

PPI report. Well oops. I wanted to go to the Spy and I want to type in PPI So all these blue vertical lines are the CPI report. If you check out all these blue vertical lines, you're going to realize that it's basically the day that before the market opened.

Obviously, you're going to have the hour before because it's 8 30 a.m ET You're going to see that seven out of eight of these are Gap UPS uh oh, that's not good es is really kind of vomiting here. Shit Do I want to cut I need to make a decision. Come on, be a fake out. just rip into clothes.

Seven out of eight of these were Gap UPS Now if you're looking at how many were green or red, well, from open to close, not from the previous close, but from open to close on that day, five were green, three were red, and now after today, we are looking a little red and I'm not saying this as in from the previous close to the close. I'm saying from the open of the day, this would technically be another red day. so the odds might go five to four after this one. But yes, this is now eight out of nine for a gap up because we did successfully Gap up today.

Now that's for CPI Tomorrow, an hour before the Market opens, we get PPI Now if you look at the last eight PPI reports, that's going to be these white vertical lines now. Unfortunately, the odds are not as nice as they were for the CPI report. I I Mean you could feel free to fact check me on this one. But from November 15th up to June 14th, it's about half and half.

It's about half and half. Uh, out of those eight, four or Gap UPS four are Gap Downs. In terms of from the opening value to the closing value for our red and four are green. so pretty much 50 50.

But I do want to point one thing out to you I do want to point one thing out to you. Uh, Let's ignore this one because this is a weird time when the PPI report actually came out before the CPI report. so ignore this one. So green goes to Red CPI was a green one leading to a red PPI We have a a green CPI leading to a red.

PPI You have a green leading to a red, You have a green leading to a gap down that even went more red and then popped up. You have a red leading to a green, you have a red leading to a green, and then you have a green leading to a pretty muted one. So I would argue six out of eight seven out of eight. Kind of a reversal pattern.

and in fact, when's the last time we actually had a red? CPI Day red CPI day. Uh, it actually went truly red, but it gapped up and went on the next one. Uh, a red. CPI day.

a gap down barely went green. Where's another red? one? Another red one red CPI day. gaps up goes green and those are pretty much the examples of it. Oops, did not mean to do that.

So with today, the odds based on today today kind of played out in a somewhat reasonable manner. I would argue it was somewhat reasonable. we had a gap up, which was statistically likely statistically relevant. So I think that's A-Okay that's good.

and then the unfortunately it's red. but that's pretty much in line with like the 50-50 odds. So the real call out for the day was the fact that the market would Gap up the market did Gap up it pushed higher, couldn't hold, and now we're apparently selling into clothes. We're actually almost at today's low.

Unfortunately, shit. That means my position is getting really messed up right now. Um, all right, we're gonna see how that one plays out. That's brutal.

That's absolutely brutal. Dude, what is this sell-off Holy shit. I Really thought with this breakout here, we were going to get coasting but no people are selling into clothes. Shit shit shit shit.

I Don't know what to do because one of the reasons I don't know what to do is because Ppi is pretty much 50 50. if you look at the last eight the last batch that matter with this rate hike cycle, it's essentially 50 50. 50 Gap up 50 gap down, 50 are red, 50 are green. The one interesting thing I guess somewhat of note is that it does seem to reverse.

Um, about six out of eight? seven out of eight depending on how you want to do it. If you look at the bar, it's it's just the opposite. It seems like a lot of them were green CPI days followed by Red PPI days, but there were some red CPI days followed by Green CPI days or PPI days. So it my point is is that there seems to be some sort of statistical likelihood.

Once again, not a guarantee of a reversal reversal reversal reversal. Well, as of now, depending on where we closed, the bar looks like it could be a red bar. I mean our open here was at 446.39 while our close is 445.52 If it were to close right now, and granted we have a half hour, it's totally possible for this to close in the green. But I'm saying if if the market were to close right now, it wouldn't be the most insane thing to see another reversal, especially because remember what I told you before tomorrow does favor the Bulls on this day.

From open to close, the Bulls have won 76 of the time after. This is this tested right here the past 25 years. That means 21 out of 25 from open to close. it was great.

The Bulls won it, particularly in the Futures market. And in terms of how much money you put on the table, you got double that back. So for every dollar thrown down on the table, in the bullish, Direction two were returned, that is clearly favoring the Bulls, clearly favoring the Bulls. And in fact, just while I have you all captivated here for a moment, let me run Friday's numbers just to see what we have going on.

I Just want to quickly run Friday's numbers if this ever loads for me. Friday Friday Friday Friday Friday Friday Friday's numbers are so we know Thursday seasonally favors the Bulls and the Friday numbers. Whoa. Holy shit.

I Don't know if you guys can see this uh uh, full monitor. Uh, this is for Friday 72 percent of the time the Bulls have won right here. Win percentage 72 with a profit factor of four. And this is a look at the equity curve.

So basically, you could argue that there is a clear bullish Advantage holding from today's close to Friday's close. Uh, in fact, we could actually test that I could give you the numbers right now. Hold on. Hold on for one second.

Let's say uh, let me do this. Let me do this all right. Max Hold time. Okay, simulate let's check the past 25 years.

So two actually I want the biggest profit? Factor One right here. 5.0 So entering on the seventh trading day: one two three, four, five, six seven. So basically when the Market opens tomorrow. so if you're trading the Futures Market that's technically 6 p.m tonight, but obviously you could play through whatever medium you want.

This trade has won depending on how you get out. Max Whole time of three looking for one profitable close, two profitable clothes, three profitable clothes, but basically being willing to hold for three days. Thursday Friday Monday Thursday Friday Monday Being willing to hold for that long and looking for your first profitable clothes and then getting out right away, That has won 88 of the time over the past 25 years over the past 25 years. That's when 88 of the time.

So each one's what four percent. So that's one 22 out of 25 times with the profit factor of 5.0 And this is what the equity curve looks like. This is one 22 I would have 25 times. So is it perfect? No.

Obviously, there's been some years that hasn't worked. For example, whatever happened this year, or for whatever example, whatever happened about 12 years ago. And where's the other losing trade? Uh, there should be another losing trade in here, but it worked 22 out of 25 times. The accuracy is 20 88 and just some slight differences of do you want.

Basically it means hold for three times and at the end of the day, if you're ever profitable, you're going to take that and go. Uh, so once again, this is for the S P 500 futures. Uh, we could I guess. Check it on what it would be like to hold for one Es.

So let me Check that out uh symbol instead of Es. Let's go to Spy. So just slightly different trading hours, but let's see how it works out. So in this one, don't worry about the magnitude so much.

What we care about is still the profit. Factor Once again. Uh, basically when the Market opens tomorrow for the Spy The Profit factor is 3.97 winning 73 of the time or 77 percent of the time. Uh, because that's the entry, it's just the difference is like your exact exiting.

But overall, this is the equity curve for going long at Market Open tomorrow? Um, just a nice bottom left, top right? Yeah, there. it's not all perfect. There's some drawdowns: I'm not saying that this is like some sort of guarantee or anything like that, but there seems to be an evident in evident bullish advantage over the next two to three trading days, especially over the next two trading days with Friday AKA my birthday being uniquely bullish so just wanted to share that with all of you. Actually, that was kind of some exciting stuff I didn't do it beforehand and that actually complicates my position.

Speaking of which, here's my position: so you guys saw me crush it this morning I believe I had a realized P L of 72 73 000 Really good day for me, especially in light of what happened yesterday yesterday I Lost 40K So I was like oh, this isn't so good um not So Bueno Uh so lock that in obviously in profit and then I decided to take the profits and re-enter into some Xpx calls Unfortunately they expire on Friday with the information I Just learned I wish instead they expired Monday That would make me feel a little bit better about my life, but we'll have to see how it really plays out the market a little red today and I am seeing this pattern of so see here the remember: the blue lines are the CPI the red lines are excuse me the white lines are the PPI so blue comes first CPI white comes second PPI So this one went green bar into green bar. Okay, this one went red into green. This one went red into green. This one went green, but this it's another green one.

but it was still a considerable gap down. so I could would consider that to be the opposite. This one went green into red. This one went green into red.

This one went red into a huge gap up. so I still count this as the opposite because I mean it's still considerably higher up. And then this one went uh, red or green into red. So seeing reversals, it did it happen on every single one.

Absolutely not absolutely not. But it does seem as if there's some sort of bias to do the opposite. And with today being a red bar day, here's the daily candle for spy and then when I look at this seasonality of what's happening tomorrow Friday and Monday It makes me think that actually the Bulls are still in control now. I Want to be explicitly clear, explicitly clear? None of that's a guarantee.

I'm actually telling you the odds of it happening. but I'm not saying 100 I'm saying somewhere between 70 and 85 Chance that I think between today's close and Mondays close, we're going to have a bullish push. So obviously it could be like there is some sort of statistical chance that's just a horrible sell-off That's totally possible. Totally, totally totally possible.

But I just want you guys to know the odds of the situation. So for me, I'm now in a little bit of a predicament because I'm in a SPX call position that is a little bit too big, a little bit too big. Let me show it to you. Uh, and once again, this is all in like the locals Community I posted about it.

so I have 70 of these which is apparently worth 45 000. I'm in at 790. they're trading at six so I'm underwater by 24. The way these move though to move a dollar ninety, it's really not that much.

If there's a gap up tomorrow, this will be deeply in the green. If it is a gap down tomorrow, I'll be absolutely screwed. So it's it's going to be either a big winner, a big loser. My risk was around the realm of 40 to 50 percent.

Uh, once again, I'm in at 790 I was like, okay, it's about eight bucks I'm willing to risk about four. so willing to risk about half of this. So I was willing to risk basically my extra profit of today considering what I lost tomorrow uh or what I lost yesterday. Hopefully I'm not losing anything tomorrow, but obviously we will see so that's where I'm at.

This is my only position I have nothing in futures or anything like that now, but I just wanted you to know about the seasonality and everything of tomorrow. I'm going to tell you this right now. uh, we have about what 24 minutes left if my position pushes Green between now and close, I'll be taking off either half, maybe even two-thirds I would like to de-risk and my reason for that is not because I don't have confidence obviously I showed you the math of PPI doing reversals I showed you the math of the seasonality of this period of the Year blah blah blah. It's just because why push my luck I had a very lucky day I crushed it I made a lot of money I don't necessarily have to risk giving it back I'd be more angry at myself for giving it all back rather than I would be like I miss out on another big winner I like and I just know that about myself and that's things that we all have to ask each other or ask yourself when you're trading is like okay, what makes you more Angry Taking on a bigger loser than you anticipated or missing out on a bigger winner than you could have had for me I get much more frustrated when I take on a bigger loss than I should have because that's how you blow up an account if you miss a winner.

like if you're like oh, I got out early or if I just didn't place that big. Okay, like that's a lesson learned. but it's not like in my opinion putting risk into your account so that's just my opinion. Obviously, do what is appropriate for you.

but when I look at the daily chart I see a double top which turned into a cup? Let me draw on this: I see cup handle that hopefully leads to an explosion Cup handle explosion I hope it leads to that I don't know if it will, but that's what I'm watching I see double top right here I see a higher low between. So basically the double top happened in mid-june and then once again in early July Then I see a low here on June 26th I see a higher low here on. let's just call it whatever. July 6 7th, 10th and it pushed through that broke above four four four four.

Thirty this was the high of these double tops. Obviously we gapped up above it we got as low as Four Four Four ninety so we didn't even get to that high. And obviously, yes, I get it. There is a downside.

Gap filter to 442.97 That is something that we need to be cognizant of I am obviously statistically still a fan of these Gap fill plays, but I also know that they don't necessarily have to fill the very next day. The odds are high of it. But I also have some upside targets of 448 I have some upside targets of Four Four nine I Think that's possible? So once again, it's kind of coming down to the risk of this PPI report that comes out an hour before the Market opens tomorrow. So here's my plan.

The market sold right here. I'm not liking that This 315 bar that doesn't make me feel so good because it calls me my unrealized P L to go down by like 10 grand or some shit. Uh, so that doesn't make me feel so good. but maybe maybe there's a push into Market close.

That's obviously possible I mean I don't know the odds of it, but I know it is theoretically possible, especially because we're seeing a pushing cues I See, oil is still strong. oil's been holding at 76. obviously we have the financial sector showing a bit of weakness, so maybe that's indicative of something happening or not happening Friday of this week because don't forget JP Morgan Wells Fargo and City and BlackRock are all reporting in the other major Bank Bank of America I believe is the week after. So we're going to get Delta on Thursday Delta is before the Market opens tomorrow, so tomorrow we're going to be talking about PPI and the Delta Airline report.

The reason I like to pay attention to it is because from a business perspective Delta American United and Southwest really don't differ from each other like at all. if Delta which is commonly the first one to report if it crushes It Generally United Southwest and American all crush it. On the flip side, it's Delta completely whiffs and misses and crush. it gets crushed.

Well, generally that's what we see Southwest United and American also doing so, it kind of sets the tone for the rest of the airline industry. Pepsi also reports tomorrow, setting the tone for Coca-Cola and then on Friday we hear from JP Morgan and all those other ones I listed. That's going to set the tone for Bank of America BlackRock. Maybe a little bit of an indication of maybe that's kind of tough to say.

Maybe a little bit indicative of what's going on with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. So there's certain companies that are so similar to other companies that it's a strong indication of what in the world is going on. So definitely paying attention to that. So with the overall Market with the oh, let me bring up this with the overall: Market the S P 500 I Like the trend, it's strong.

It's going to the upside if you look at the tech sector led by Apple Microsoft all those guys also looking strong. In fact, we might be closing at a breakout right now. So I see strength in the overall Market I see strength in the NASDAQ And if I look at the small cap sector, a gap up that went red kind of like this by. but anyway, strength in the small cap sector as well.

In fact, this one might be closing above a key level. here at 19193. we're at 19220, so as long as it can hold on for another 20 minutes, we're seeing the Russell 2000, the NASDAQ 100, and the S P 500 all put in pretty impressive days. So if I had no position right now, or if I were coaching myself and I was just kind of coming in, looking at these charts, I would say you either need to be bullish or you need to be neutral I Don't think there's a smart move right now to be bearish.

Seasonality isn't telling us to be bearish. The quantitative qualitative update from the FED as in the inflation report: not telling us to be bearish. Price action? not really telling us to be bearish. I I Don't know what would be telling us to be bearish in the short term Now medium term? That's a completely different argument.

but I'm talking about really from now until like Midway through next week or now until the end of this week I'm not seeing anything that's like hey man, you should probably be bearish. If anything, everything screaming either be bullish or if you think we've already gone too much, maybe you would be like, well, I I guess maybe a little bit more neutral. There's a couple things I guess now that I'm saying this like oh yeah, you could argue the downside. Gap Phil but that's not even really that bearish.

That's just a downside gaffle that we could bounce right off of like we've seen crazier days. So I don't know. I'm kind of torn and I'm trying to be realistic about my position I'm trying to be better about okay, like admitting when your play is wrong and just throwing in the towel and once again, I've gotten myself into it where I don't necessarily hate my position I just don't like the size of it I wish instead of putting I don't know 55k down I wish I only put 10K down I wish I only put 15K down uh I'm getting into this habit of definitely like over betting and that's something I need to take care of but it's just I don't know sometimes I just get a little a little get a little caught up in the moment I Could Just Kill it all now take a 10K loss and keep my account at 162. I could take the risk of the PPI report, but also more.

What I'm focusing in on is the seasonality. I'm liking this concept of the seasonality or I kind of like this play, but now knowing this seasonality I wish I played it for mid next week instead of July 14th I wish I almost played it for July 19th instead of July 14th. So I could just roll it to that. Maybe that's the smart move is even though I'm taking an 8K loss, maybe give myself a bit of time, but is there then an argument that maybe I should roll it tomorrow, waiting for tomorrow's either Gap up or gap down and position it off of that I kind of.

I Don't know if I want to necessarily move it before an event, but really, what kind of argument is that? when we're going to be having quote unquote events for the remainder of the week, we have the PPI report. We have the consumer sentiment report. We have the earnings reports. That's a big question of do we think all these companies are going to beat on earnings? Inflation's coming down, but we also see the consumer slowing down.

The consumer doesn't have as much purchasing power as they have in the past. We know student loan repayments are going to restart on the federal level in October so that could prompt some people to lower their guidance. This isn't going to be for a week or two, but we know with Nvidia that there's some political things going on where they're not necessarily allowed to sell their chips to. China Various things to consider, Various various things.

Okay, I Guess my question for you guys is what do you think about the PPI report? How are you feeling bullish? Bearish for tomorrow? If I ask you this for tomorrow July 13th Let's say you had 55k on the line. Would you be betting on a Gap Up or a Gap Down gun to your head right now, a digital gun to your head and I'm like hey Bucko hey buddy pal Gap Up Gap Down you have to pick. You can't be like oh, I don't know. You have to pick either a Gap up or a gap down.

Which way would you be going? Which which way would you be gone? And there is a gun to your head of proverbial. So I see a gap up PPI Sticky Bearish up Gap Up Gap Up Bullish Gap Up Gap Up Down foolish for sure. bullish in the morning flat Gap off Gaff Up Gap Up Gap Down Up Up Down you guys are all over the map. What do I pay you for? What do I pay you for? Well, hang on I Don't want to forget whoever what was it Gblxone did very kindly ask about Gblx.

Um, so let me get that loaded up for you. Obviously if there's other tickers you want me to like, do a quick Deep dive into. Uh I will do it GB Alex GB Sciences Is this what you wanted me to look at this piece of shit I think this the OTC stock in OTC Health Biotech play I would avoid it like herpes I would avoid it like the plague I would avoid it like being emotionally vulnerable to my fiance I don't know how many different ways I could come up with saying I wouldn't fucking touch this I don't know if this is the one did I write it I might have written it down wrong. Whoever asked for this.

Is this the one? Uh, Rivian levels. Okay, we'll do Rivian. Uh, what was the other one though I think this was it. if if this is what you were talking about I absolutely hate it.

but I don't know if you were talking about this. Um, are Rivian levels. Rivian's been ripping uh, obviously important shelf around the mid-23s Downside: Gap fill at 21.77 I'd be looking at the breakout of 2661 is the breakout of 26 and obviously there's a little bit of leeway to all that. I would then be looking for a continuation to the low 27s after the low 27s.

I would then be watching the low 30s. Uh, this is what I would Yeah. I actually like these levels. Um, breakout of the mid-26s leads to the low 27s low 27s.

I think leads to the mid-29s to low 30s. So about a dollar range up there. but be careful if it reverts below the low 23s the mid-23s then you're talking about the this Gap fill and then if that doesn't hold, then you're talking about this Gap fill all the way down here so be careful about like breaking the shelves that it's creating and look like. on the downside, you'd have these Gap those but right now the EMA strong the 10s stacked on top of the 20.

Nice angle to the upside. um it had a red day but it then an inside day. it recovered nicely I'd be watching 26.61 Then these are the levels I would personally be watching and I just want you to know as I'm saying this, I have no position on Riven so I would I'd be like hey it's ripping I wish I got in all the way back here on Tuesday the 27th or Wednesday the 28th I wish I played it or maybe even if I was a little Chasey on Friday the 30th. but I'm not going to get in now because not long ago was at 16.

now it's at 26 like I missed the party uh I'm attempting to be better my trading and get in when I have lower risk and size appropriately and I've been getting in better now but my risk is off so that's something I really really need to start honing in on. But for me, the fact that this is blown so far away, it's just not my play. I guess if I got in now I would just risk 23.60 I'd risk this low but now that it's moved so much I mean a very fair question is how much longer can it keep going? Inherently, the longer something moves, the closer it is to being done with that move. um I I can't tell you when the end of the move is unfortunately.

but inherently If It Moves a lot. That means it's closer to being done with that move. It's not just going to keep doing that into infinity and beyond. so um, it's looking strong.

Ride the momentum if you're in it. I Hope you got into it early with reasonable risk, even if you chase it a little bit and you got lucky I beg of you to move your wrist to at least break. even so you're not actually risking anything and just making a momentum party and hopefully it works out for you. Um, the other one That a lot.

So I think what people are most talking about is Rivien and Carvana. Carvana had a push today got smack kind of like the overall. Market Uh, nice breakout here on Friday July 7th and ever since then 29 up to almost 40 at one point today getting as high as 44.64. just be careful with volume exhaustion on this one.

For example, these bars that are are at a higher price bigger bar but the volume is clearly coming down, so that's not the most sustainable structure. now. Obviously, it's still nicely riding the EMAs There's a lot of excitement around it. There's a lot of exuberance around it.

So yeah. I totally think it could keep going. but I would just be careful the first day that it breaks below and closes below like a big red day below, the previous day is closed. so I would keep tracking the previous days close, even see and hear how like there's this one.

but it was just like a little baby red bar and it didn't even close below it. It kind of popped back up. um. I Would be looking for the first day that there's serious volume.

it gets below and closes below the first that previous day's low. That would be a serious warning signal to me, but once again, similar to Rivian I'm talking about this just to see what you guys are up to I Have no position, Nothing on Rivian, nothing our Carvana Actually my only position right now is the overall. Market it's SPX call for this Friday Speaking of that, if you're curious about some of my trades, if you want to see other people within the community, their trades, how they look at it, just a community of people attempting to help make other Traders better, this is it. Matt Cores.locals.com It is pinned to the top of Chat.

It's in the description of the video. It's ten dollars a month. It's very cheap. It's a hundred dollars a year.

You could get a two month bonus. Once again, ten dollars a month. Goonie become a goonie. Macwords.locals.com I Post a seasonality there actually for free.

You don't even have to be a payment member to do that. And then I post all of my trades. or actually I can't say all of them because I like the Futures ones happen too quickly I post most of my trades in here. Um, under the premium.

So if that's something you're interested in Macquares.locals.com pinned to the top of Chat in the description of the video. On that note, oh, we are selling off a little into clothes, but really, ever since this morning pop we sold and then we just created a range between four four four nine one, and four four six seven five. and now we're just in the middle of that range. So this is a classic holding pattern.

Maybe something crazy happens in the final whatever five minutes of the day like we've seen it before, But as of now, it doesn't look like anything too special is happening. This is just kind of a whatever grind as people are waiting to see what goes on with the PPI report tomorrow. As of now, the Futures Market I would consider this a Big Win 4 508 a big close above 4 500 blows my mind. If this is where you told me we would be a couple months ago, I would have told you like give me the number of your dealer because you are on some good stuff and yet here we are blows my mind.

In fact, how far away are we from the all-time high as of now? If we close right here, we are a mirror 7.65 away. That's crazy. That is crazy. You know, 7.67 away.

Should we do be doing like one of these FIB level things? Um, this is calling out for the point Seven Eight six to go to just below 452. that's a an apparently an important FIB level for all my FIB Traders Uh, four, Five, One Seven eight. So let's just call it right below 452.. So basically still calling really for the breakout of 450.

Um, it would be nice to see that tomorrow. My position would love to see that tomorrow. Uh, even before it's wicked above that had some problems. Um, so I wouldn't be surprised if that actually acts as some pretty serious resistance.

So go in a little bit of a larger time frame all-time high to the most recent low. looking at the FIB bounce and even look at this, uh, this bounce it's at. this is the halfway mark. rejection.

A little undershoot. little undershoot, rejection consolidation goes up there. Look at that. This is I mean the FIB level It seems to play out quite a bit.

Um, interesting, interesting, interesting, interesting. Um, and it seems like maybe we're on our way up to 449. Maybe 450. Maybe just like straight up this number.

Imagine if it hits exactly that. Four five, one, seven, eight. uh, that would be wild. Uh, double down.

Blake Damn baller. Blake What'd you do? Uh I sold 40 of my position on Riven calls up 300 holding the other position for higher levels. dude. Good for you man.

Ride the trend, ride the trend, ride the trend, ride the trend. Um so just to recap of how everything went for me today, just I Hope you guys can learn from my wins. I Hope you guys can win more. so for my losses um yesterday I locked in a 40K loss.

The main reason for that was not being willing to admit the position was actually turning against me and playing too big. Fortunately, I did transition soon enough after looking at the odds of the CPI days and I went long from I went from SPX puts to SPX calls. made that money back early this morning I Locked in somewhere between 70 and 75 000 paying for my 40K loss. obviously up about whatever the math is 30 35k now I'm in a SPX call play and once again, it seems to be a sizing issue that I'm not the most happy with.

I played it a little bit too big risking about 20 to 25k, but the risks might actually be larger if there's a gap down which looking at the PPI reports 50 percent of them have been. Now, the timing could be better. mine don't expire until July 19 14th this Friday I wished a lot I wish I played July 19th I wish I gave myself a bit more time, but I didn't come to that realization until I was talking with all of you realizing the seasonality for Thursday Friday and Monday so that one I don't know if I could beat myself up too much so I either Wish I played my strike price a little bit closer or I wish I played my date my expiration date out a little bit farther. but really, it seems like the going Crux of the issue is still legitimately playing it a little bit too big, a little bit too big.

Um, so that's where we're at. That's where we're at. That's where we're at. uh, the position I'm still in it I haven't done anything.

it's currently down 27. That sucks. that's some. 15K Um, I'm in at 790 currently trading at 570.

I Guess I'm at the point of just hoping for I could cut half the position I could cut half the position if I don't want to take on that risk. How much time do I have? it's three should I cut half? So I mean that would suck because it would be like eight or seven. K but I mean I made 72k like I would still be up 60k on the day and it would be a little bit safer. I was green I I Don't know why I didn't sell half when I was up in the green today.

uh um, a Fib retracement is from one on the bottom and zero high on the trend that fit this far down which is not correct I don't agree with you at all. Um Matt how do you place the call option as five, four thousand and changes? Uh Roberta I'm sorry I'm not quite following your question, but half it'll dude, it's just I mean the spies dying in the clothes here I mean the thing that's kind of keeping me in it is just this. this daily chart man like this is strong cup handle. It's just wondering if I need more time for this to really play out.

I could always roll it I could always roll it tomorrow. Maybe I take the chance of a gap up and if it is a gap up, just take my money and run and then maybe if it's a gap down or maybe something not too perfect dude, but this is a large gap down. We're playing with fire here at 443 443. The high from Tuesday I mean even this when it go when things go up like this Gap up the next two days were weird.

Then we came down, then it pushed. Fuck uh uh I'm gonna try to get out of half here. gonna try to get out of half? Come on. Dump half dump half dump half dump half dump half.

Okay I got out of half. Uh, just so you guys he uh instead of having 70 I now have 35 I was able to get out of half at Uh 550. So I took an 8K loss. Um so on the day instead of making 72 73 I made 65.

uh, 65k with the current position just bringing it into a little bit of a more manageable and like whatever if it gaps up I'll be able to pay off for the position if it keeps going. Okay, that's great I could always add to it like blah blah blah um but it's just I I don't want this one like my biggest fear is that there is a giant gap down and then all of a sudden I like give back 95 of the money I gave today I would rather be a little bit more secure right now and then I don't know if I want to roll and play something a little farther out I have the capital to do so? So um I think this was the smarter play? Maybe you agree, maybe you don't agree. but whatever. that's why it's my account and not yours.

So this will also definitely help me sleep at night tonight. Uh, don't forget. Obviously, sign up for Oh I shouldn't uh, cut half at 50. leave comment.

Um, Okay, so just updated that Macquares.locals.com if you're watching right now, highly recommend that you check it out. Highly, highly recommend you check it out. You can get the premium access for one month for free by putting in the code Goonie G-o-o-n-i-e That's what I have for you. Um, obviously we will be posting some videos later tonight.

So I hope you enjoy that! We're going to be streaming tomorrow morning. uh, starting at 8 20 8 25 because the PPI report comes out at 8 30. So once again, tomorrow morning we will be streaming. Um, and then that's kind of it.

I Hope you have a good evening I Hope you crush it I hope you make lots of money I Hope you get to hang out with family and friends loved ones I Hope you have a good night I Hope you have a great Wednesday evening I Hope you go to the gym and absolutely murder it and that's pretty much what I have for you. Um, that's exactly what I have for you. so have a good one and thanks for all the good vibes. Sign up for Locals Macross.locals.com I Will catch you later.

Thank you Foreign.